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Like Brian Rose, Laurence Fox seems like a clear lay for London Mayor – politicalbetting.com

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  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,695

    Morning all! A few days off being here in Buchan for a month, and it looks like we are about to get our first spell of rain.

    Does that imply that it has stopped snowing?
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,510
    edited March 2021

    Me neither. A few strawberry and raspberry supply issues in January but the supermarkets seem to have sorted them.

    Scott XP tritely remarks that it's pure essence of Brexit but I do loads of online shopping and haven't been affected.

    Interesting reading the Times over the past few days on the number of big deals heading the UK's way and the unexpected decision of Joe Biden's team to drop the tarrifs. Allied to the immigration tweak by the Home Office and we've started the ball rolling for the UK to be the Singapore of the West.

    This country is likely to boom over the next decade. Bet accordingly.
    I hope that's true, but I'm not sure I agree. We could do much better, but I don't think we will because:

    - we're too addicted to welfare spending, supporting uncompetitive industries like farming or failing regions
    - huge sections of the economy are monopolies or tight oligopolies
    - we've masochistically saddled ourselves with ridiculous environmental obligations
    - our construction industry, which affects so much else throughout the economy, is hobbled by some of the tightest planning regulations in the world

    and, perhaps above all,

    - we have a government which prioritises short term electoral gain over the sometimes paninful reforms needed to tackle the above.

    So we'll probably do alright, but not as well as we could.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,920

    Hilarious, absolutely hilarious.

    I'm sure the minimum wage earning cashier will be heartbroken at the nurse earning much more than they earn getting a less than expected pay rise.

    Especially in a year that many of the cashiers customers far from getting a pay rise have had substantial pay cuts or lost their job altogether.

    What a laugh that is!
    Trust you to be against nurses keeping pace with inflation!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,567
    Chris said:

    Hopefully Laurence Fox will emigrate there. Somehow I can see him hunting down Muslims in the Swiss Alps, wearing a look of implacable pseudo-aristocratic stupidity.
    Well, that seems a bit harsh on the Swiss, but I was more thinking that would outlaw face masks...
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,576

    Fox is a ghastly guy. He will be eviscerated but will be too thick skinned (or ACT too thick skinned) to care.

    The Daily Mail and Daily Telegraph are repositories of moaners, a British pastime. I was at a vaccination centre the other day and some lady was moaning away loudly in front of everyone about having to wait 15 minutes after she'd received her jab.

    Some years ago I had a cataract operation. There were four or five of us in the waiting room, and after the operation we had to wait for a while; clerical and transport issues. After being 'done' most of us commented on how well we could now see, except one lady who moaned about the dreadful pain, and how she couldn't imaging during that again.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,559
    malcolmg said:

    Given what we have seen and heard , anything other than it being critical will be for sure a whitewash. Of more interest will be James Hamilton QC inquiry, he is not limited by scope or SNP majority. Interesting to see his opinion.
    Yes, Hamilton is more likely to be the report that she cannot run from.

    All the more so if it is the polar opposite of the Holyrood whitewash. It will bring into sharp relief just how much the Scottish Government has become a fawning tool to preserve the position of the First Minister.

    Whoever does replace her is going to need to do quite the spring clean.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,786
    Two quick points on the header:

    My dog has more chance of being Mayor of London than Laurence Fox. Presumably Fox, despite his ignorance, knows this. He'll be standing hoping to make money from it, given his acting/'singing' careers have dried up.

    The poll shows some support for ending lockdown soon, and large support for ending it by the end of May. Well, I'd like lockdown to end today. We all would. But I don't think it should. I don't think such polling distinguishes enough between what people would like to happen and what people think should happen.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,567

    Does that imply that it has stopped snowing?
    A friend of mine, on moving to Gwynedd, said it had only rained once in the two months he had been there.

    Admittedly that once had lasted for 63 days and counting...
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,142
    Chris said:

    Trust you to be against nurses keeping pace with inflation!

    https://twitter.com/PeterStefanovi2/status/1368272641761611778
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,567

    Some years ago I had a cataract operation. There were four or five of us in the waiting room, and after the operation we had to wait for a while; clerical and transport issues. After being 'done' most of us commented on how well we could now see, except one lady who moaned about the dreadful pain, and how she couldn't imaging during that again.
    :lol:
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,814
    algarkirk said:

    The way law and legal change works in the modern world means that it would require a revolution. It takes reams of legal nonsense to make quite simple admin changes now, and examples abound in Statutory Instruments every day. Abolition of the monarchy would tie up government, parliament and admin for 10 years, ending with at least one new party, probably more (Lozza v Farage for PM anyone?) committed to the reintroduction of the monarchy.

    No foreseeable government is going to touch an issue which is at one massively complex, long term, 10 times more divisive than Brexit and the GFA combined, is electoral suicide with no dividend in the popular mind. Notice that even Jezza killed the issue dead immediately and rapidly when he was asked. Salmond and Sturgeon won't touch it. No-one will.

    Parliament can, has and would legislate for change within the system - abolition of male priority for example. That is fairly simple. Abolition is a nightmare.

    Constitutional inertia. The British monarchy will most likely survive until our first probe to Alpha Centauri B confirms the existence of the lizard people and the tight uncomfortable human costumes can then be finally slipped off at the Palace.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,567
    edited March 2021

    Two quick points on the header:

    My dog has more chance of being Mayor of London than Laurence Fox. Presumably Fox, despite his ignorance, knows this. He'll be standing hoping to make money from it, given his acting/'singing' careers have dried up.

    The poll shows some support for ending lockdown soon, and large support for ending it by the end of May. Well, I'd like lockdown to end today. We all would. But I don't think it should. I don't think such polling distinguishes enough between what people would like to happen and what people think should happen.

    Have you considered putting your dog forward? A candidate who merely barks rather than is completely barking would make a refreshing change.

    Edit - remember, next week cases are going to spike dramatically if LFTs are any use at all (which they may not be). So that may have an effect on public opinion.

    That is why our smarter posters (not me, as I haven’t really commented) have rightly been warning she would stay focussed on hospitalisations and deaths as the metric.

    But the Mail, the Beeb and the rest of the gutter press won’t, of course.
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,303

    Apparently, round here anyway, people who make and mend fences are very busy. House owners have been at home looking at their gardens, and haven't spent their money on holidays.
    So the supply problems are made worse by an increase in demand.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,842

    Fox is a ghastly guy. He will be eviscerated but will be too thick skinned (or ACT too thick skinned) to care.

    The Daily Mail and Daily Telegraph are repositories of moaners, a British pastime. I was at a vaccination centre the other day and some lady was moaning away loudly in front of everyone about having to wait 15 minutes after she'd received her jab.

    Unless she was waving a copy of the Mail or Telegraph, I don't see the relevance.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,576
    edited March 2021

    Two quick points on the header:

    My dog has more chance of being Mayor of London than Laurence Fox. Presumably Fox, despite his ignorance, knows this. He'll be standing hoping to make money from it, given his acting/'singing' careers have dried up.

    The poll shows some support for ending lockdown soon, and large support for ending it by the end of May. Well, I'd like lockdown to end today. We all would. But I don't think it should. I don't think such polling distinguishes enough between what people would like to happen and what people think should happen.

    Not sure about voting for your dog vis a vis Laurence Fox, TBH.

    One the second point, though, you are right. There's a distinct difference between wanting something to happen and thinking it's desirable now.
    In a out-patients waiting area yesterday, and while the tree or four elderly gentlemen there all wanting to get back to normal, that was ASA safely P, not immediately. We all know people who had had Covid, some fatally.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,103
    ydoethur said:

    What’s been done’s inane.

    But I don’t quite see Robertson as a Caesar. Even if you think he is duff.
    Once upon a time I thought he was next FM, and he is trying hard with his wife's and Sturgeon's help to get there.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,739
    Chris said:

    Trust you to be against nurses keeping pace with inflation!
    The problem is that there are a lot of people who have worked throughout Covid and aren't getting a payrise (both public and private sector)

    And a lot of people who no longer have a job.

    Now you aren't going to win in a budget as people will always complain but a 1% payrise allows everyone to complain.

    What should have been offered is either a 1 off thank you bonus or weeks additional holiday.
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,303
    malcolmg said:

    That is because as we saw in the court case , they were absolutely nothing and far far away from crimes. Any that did happen were by and with consenting adults.
    It is all just a few people did not like the boss being a hard barsteward.
    You still are far short on Robertson.
    Don’t look at The Guardian today...

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/mar/07/alex-salmond-scottish-politics-nicola-sturgeon-metoo
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,567
    malcolmg said:

    Once upon a time I thought he was next FM, and he is trying hard with his wife's and Sturgeon's help to get there.
    My three awesome puns on Macbeth clearly failed to burn ‘em.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,739

    Two quick points on the header:

    My dog has more chance of being Mayor of London than Laurence Fox. Presumably Fox, despite his ignorance, knows this. He'll be standing hoping to make money from it, given his acting/'singing' careers have dried up.

    The poll shows some support for ending lockdown soon, and large support for ending it by the end of May. Well, I'd like lockdown to end today. We all would. But I don't think it should. I don't think such polling distinguishes enough between what people would like to happen and what people think should happen.

    Actually I don't want lockdown ended at the moment because I would much prefer people to still have a choice of not going into the office unless they want to.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Chris said:

    Trust you to be against nurses keeping pace with inflation!
    That would be the inflation of less than 1%? 🤦🏻‍♂️
  • eekeek Posts: 29,739
    ydoethur said:

    Switzerland today goes to the polls to vote on an anti-Muslim constitutional amendment inspired by France’s laws on the burkhathat would ‘prohibit the wearing of face coverings in public.’

    Head

    Desk

    Thump.


    Although Contrarian will probably want to emigrate there...

    I think there is a lot of carefully planned irony in the timing.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,567
    eek said:

    The problem is that there are a lot of people who have worked throughout Covid and aren't getting a payrise (both public and private sector)

    And a lot of people who no longer have a job.

    Now you aren't going to win in a budget as people will always complain but a 1% payrise allows everyone to complain.

    What should have been offered is either a 1 off thank you bonus or weeks additional holiday.
    Alternatively they could have abolished the Department of Health, sacked all its staff and that would at least have cheered up every NHS frontline worker.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,559
    ydoethur said:

    What’s been done’s inane.

    But I don’t quite see Robertson as a Caesar. Even if you think he is duff.
    Robertson? Not a ghost of a chance.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,695

    Brie can be a problem. We have to make do with Perl Wen in these parts.
    Seriously? 'No Good Brie'

    That's made my day!
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,842

    Don’t look at The Guardian today...

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/mar/07/alex-salmond-scottish-politics-nicola-sturgeon-metoo
    Nobody who values their brain cells should look at that article.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,567

    Robertson? Not a ghost of a chance.
    I don’t know. Witches worse, him or one of the current nonentities in the executive? They’re all a bit drab...
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,485
    Mr. NorthWales, my mother has developed a bad habit of suddenly being allergic to things she could eat perfectly well for decades.
  • Mr. NorthWales, my mother has developed a bad habit of suddenly being allergic to things she could eat perfectly well for decades.

    Interesting
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    ClippP said:

    Of course. You have misunderstood the situation. We have it on the authority of HY no less, that the top priority for Conservatives is to defeat the SNP. It follows that Conservatives will vote for Lib Dem or Labour candidates if they have a good chance of defeating an SNP candidate.

    On the other hand, most normal Labour and Lib Dem voters strongly dislike the Tories, and even more so under the leadership of the present shower. There is nothing I want to see as much as Conservative candidates defeated. I could even be persuaded to consider voting SNP (were the conditions right), so much do I detest and despise the present government.
    Golly. How thick are you? Bye bye Union.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,576
    ydoethur said:

    :lol:
    LOL. Proof reading interrupted again! 'imagine' of course.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,576
    edited March 2021
    ydoethur said:

    I don’t know. Witches worse, him or one of the current nonentities in the executive? They’re all a bit drab...
    Won't he need another two, to help? Or am I being literal over 'spelling'?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,208
    Still convinced Dominic Cummings left Downing Street? :wink:
  • Labour want bigger pay increases in the NHS and will vote against the tax free allowance freeze

    And they wonder why they are so far behind HMG on looking after the economy
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,303
    ydoethur said:

    I don’t know. Witches worse, him or one of the current nonentities in the executive? They’re all a bit drab...
    When are you going to stop the Macbeth references? Tomorrow or tomorrow or tomorrow?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,567

    LOL. Proof reading interrupted again! 'imagine' of course.
    I was just enjoying the idea of somebody not imaging an operation on their sight.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180

    Me neither. A few strawberry and raspberry supply issues in January but the supermarkets seem to have sorted them.

    Scott XP tritely remarks that it's pure essence of Brexit but I do loads of online shopping and haven't been affected.

    Interesting reading the Times over the past few days on the number of big deals heading the UK's way and the unexpected decision of Joe Biden's team to drop the tarrifs. Allied to the immigration tweak by the Home Office and we've started the ball rolling for the UK to be the Singapore of the West.

    This country is likely to boom over the next decade. Bet accordingly.
    I received a MS type cover from the UK to Spain in 5 days - zero problems.
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,303

    Nobody who values their brain cells should look at that article.
    I did say don’t look...
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    Scott_xP said:

    You this country, mean Little England?

    BoZo is fuelling Irish reunification, Scottish independence, and even the Welsh are stirring
    Missed yesterday's polls?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,567

    Won't he need another two, to help? Or am I being literal over 'spelling'?
    Eye don’t know.
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,303
    ydoethur said:

    I was just enjoying the idea of somebody not imaging an operation on their sight.
    More to the point I’m not sure anyone needs cataract surgery more than twice (once in each eye) given how it is done.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,559

    When are you going to stop the Macbeth references? Tomorrow or tomorrow or tomorrow?
    When in a hole, ydoether....

    "Is this a digger I see before me?"
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601
    felix said:

    Missed yesterday's polls?
    Early days, cant speak to a trend yet. But we can hope.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Part of the problem with no inflation in this country is people here things like 1% and think "that's tiny" rather than "that's more than inflation".

    Having 2.9% inflation and a 3% pay rise is worse not better than having a 1% pay rise and less than 1% inflation, but the 3% sounds more "generous".
  • MangoMango Posts: 1,031
    Jonathan said:

    I think is fair to say no Nige no Brexit, despite him not getting a whiff of direct political power. He presents a textbook to other would be egotistical nutcases out there. You just need to get 5-10 percent in the right places and keep gobbing off about moonshine on the telly.
    It helps if your brand of proto-fascist fuckwittery has some elements that are good for billionaires.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    felix said:

    Golly. How thick are you? Bye bye Union.
    Regardless of whether or not he thinks the Union is any use, he might as well do as he sees fit. Unionist tactical voting is pointless, because the absolute floor of support for the SNP is now 45%, or somewhere very close to it (some of that will bleed away to the Greens on the list vote in May, but only because they are also very pro-independence and can be relied upon never in a million years to prop up the Tories.)

    Scotland will elect an endless series of Nationalist Governments until independence occurs. The direction of travel is set. It's just a matter of how long it takes to get there.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,327

    Seriously? 'No Good Brie'

    That's made my day!
    No, stereotyping myself as a Guardianista Liberal. Now when imports of the Guardian fail to arrive on the news stands, I will be angry!
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,576

    More to the point I’m not sure anyone needs cataract surgery more than twice (once in each eye) given how it is done.
    Glad I'm contributing to the gaiety of nations, even if it's only a couple of them!

    One doesn't, of course need more than one cataract operation per eye, AFAIK, but this woman, having had one on her right eye was, apparently, going to need one on her left in the not-too-distant.
    If I do get a problem in my right eye, the improvement in my left, the one I had done, would ensure I was back to the operating theatre PDQ!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,567

    When in a hole, ydoether....

    "Is this a digger I see before me?"
    I think we’re done, can we move on?!
  • isamisam Posts: 41,342
    Can’t imagine Laurence Fox will do all that well, might even be the one time where saying you’re going to lay a bet without knowing the price is not worthy of detention or lines. Would I back him at 1000? Don’t think so

    Farage would do better, I am surprised he’s not had a go
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,012

    Nobody who values their brain cells should look at that article.
    On the contrary but credit where it is due. Unusual and worth reading; a Guardian article sane, balanced, thoughtful and correct.


  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601
    algarkirk said:

    The way law and legal change works in the modern world means that it would require a revolution. It takes reams of legal nonsense to make quite simple admin changes now, and examples abound in Statutory Instruments every day. Abolition of the monarchy would tie up government, parliament and admin for 10 years, ending with at least one new party, probably more (Lozza v Farage for PM anyone?) committed to the reintroduction of the monarchy.

    No foreseeable government is going to touch an issue which is at one massively complex, long term, 10 times more divisive than Brexit and the GFA combined, is electoral suicide with no dividend in the popular mind. Notice that even Jezza killed the issue dead immediately and rapidly when he was asked. Salmond and Sturgeon won't touch it. No-one will.

    Parliament can, has and would legislate for change within the system - abolition of male priority for example. That is fairly simple. Abolition is a nightmare.

    Presumably why some places very keen on doing it have taken their sweet time.

    You just legislate to change the name of the post, alter rules of succession to be by election and open to all. Done. :)
  • kle4 said:

    Early days, cant speak to a trend yet. But we can hope.
    In Scotland it does look as if it can only get worse for Sturgeon with many unanswered questions following her at every press conference, Parliamentary debate, and of course the Holyrood election campaign starting shortly

    Malc has been entirely vindicated on here and it does demonstrate yet again a week is a long time in politics
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Regardless of whether or not he thinks the Union is any use, he might as well do as he sees fit. Unionist tactical voting is pointless, because the absolute floor of support for the SNP is now 45%, or somewhere very close to it (some of that will bleed away to the Greens on the list vote in May, but only because they are also very pro-independence and can be relied upon never in a million years to prop up the Tories.)

    Scotland will elect an endless series of Nationalist Governments until independence occurs. The direction of travel is set. It's just a matter of how long it takes to get there.
    Maybe, maybe not.

    Maybe a unionist party will emerge that Hoover's up the unionists votes. The BQ lost its way in Quebec.

    The best way for that to happen would be for unionism to win a second referendum, like they did in Quebec, which puts the issue to bed in the voters minds.

    But it seems some people are petrified of democracy. In which case they deserve to lose.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,327
    edited March 2021
    So Warrior, C-130J, Puma, 10,000 troops and a couple of T23s in the bin. F-35B buy capped at 48 - LOL.

    And E-7 buy reduced to 3 from 5.

    No mention of Challenger so that decision must be going down to the wire!
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,576
    kle4 said:

    Early days, cant speak to a trend yet. But we can hope.
    Have a look at Andrew Rawnsley in todays Guardian 'Why Boris Johnson, the greased piglet, is eluding the grasp of Keir Starmer.'

  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,303

    No, stereotyping myself as a Guardianista Liberal. Now when imports of the Guardian fail to arrive on the news stands, I will be angry!
    I wonder what the environmental cost of an actual copy of the Guardian is, particularly when compared to reading the electronic version? Not any easy calculation I expect, particularly when comparing the different devices that could be used and how much of the cost of manufacturing the device needs to be ascribed to The Guardian rather than, say, pb.com.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    The Bailey surge is on, now sub 30.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,012
    kle4 said:

    Presumably why some places very keen on doing it have taken their sweet time.

    You just legislate to change the name of the post, alter rules of succession to be by election and open to all. Done. :)
    Good luck. Galloway v Farage v Lozza v Meghan v that bloke off the telly awaits.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095
    If Fox got 25% of the vote that would be the highest share for a third party candidate in a London Mayoral election and could even get him to the runoff, though Khan would still likely win.

    Otherwise some voters will vote Fox in round 1 then for Bailey in the runoff.

    If Fox stands for the Assembly he could get in on the list, especially in somewhere like Bexley and Bromley or Havering and Redbridge
  • Regardless of whether or not he thinks the Union is any use, he might as well do as he sees fit. Unionist tactical voting is pointless, because the absolute floor of support for the SNP is now 45%, or somewhere very close to it (some of that will bleed away to the Greens on the list vote in May, but only because they are also very pro-independence and can be relied upon never in a million years to prop up the Tories.)

    Scotland will elect an endless series of Nationalist Governments until independence occurs. The direction of travel is set. It's just a matter of how long it takes to get there.
    You keep repeating this but it is not at all certain that Scotland will become independent

    Indeed, as I have maintained for a long time the SNP would love another referendum if it was called
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601
    edited March 2021

    Regardless of whether or not he thinks the Union is any use, he might as well do as he sees fit. Unionist tactical voting is pointless, because the absolute floor of support for the SNP is now 45%, or somewhere very close to it (some of that will bleed away to the Greens on the list vote in May, but only because they are also very pro-independence and can be relied upon never in a million years to prop up the Tories.)

    Scotland will elect an endless series of Nationalist Governments until independence occurs. The direction of travel is set. It's just a matter of how long it takes to get there.
    That's just dumb. I think they'll go indy but views are not set forever like laws of nature, the floor of SNP support is not guaranteed to be that level forever.

    40 years ago you'd claim on the same logic that the level of SNP support meant independence was impossible and they should give up Well what do you know, things changed!

    I dont think it will, and I think a vote will come too soon for a change, but the idea they will always vote X is ridiculous.
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,303
    ydoethur said:

    I think we’re done, can we move on?!
    If it were done when 'tis done, then 'twere well it were done quickly.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    You keep repeating this but it is not at all certain that Scotland will become independent

    Indeed, as I have maintained for a long time the SNP would love another referendum if it was called
    Of course they would love it.

    (Amusing typo guessing you meant lose)
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,327
    edited March 2021
    HYUFD said:

    If Fox got 25% of the vote that would be the highest share for a third party candidate in a London Mayoral election and could even get him to the runoff, though Khan would still likely win.

    Otherwise some voters will vote Fox in round 1 then for Bailey in the runoff.

    If Fox stands for the Assembly he could get in on the list, especially in somewhere like Bexley and Bromley or Havering and Redbridge

    As always HYUFD, a thoughtful analysis. I still have my shirt on Khan.

  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,303

    You keep repeating this but it is not at all certain that Scotland will become independent

    Indeed, as I have maintained for a long time the SNP would love another referendum if it was called
    I don’t think many would argue with that, or did autocorrect change lose to love?
  • Of course they would love it.

    (Amusing typo guessing you meant lose)
    Indeed - I did mean lose
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095
    edited March 2021
    New Panelbase poll has further bad news for Sturgeon with the SNP down 5% on the Scottish Parliament constituency vote and down 4% on the list vote and virtually unchanged on the 46.5% and 41% it got in 2016. Both the Scottish Conservatives and Scottish Labour are up 3% each and the Greens are also down.

    If true that means the SNP risks no majority at all in May

    https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1368372868569042945?s=20
    https://twitter.com/ScotTories/status/1368477645034389507?s=20
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Khan is going to win, there is no doubt about that.

    That's why no serious Tory is even running and they're running Bailey instead. Because they don't have a proper candidate like Boris as they all know they'd be humiliated.
  • I don’t think many would argue with that, or did autocorrect change lose to love?
    Lose but of course both could be true

    Love it and lose it
  • HYUFD said:

    If Fox got 25% of the vote that would be the highest share for a third party candidate in a London Mayoral election and could even get him to the runoff, though Khan would still likely win.

    Otherwise some voters will vote Fox in round 1 then for Bailey in the runoff.

    If Fox stands for the Assembly he could get in on the list, especially in somewhere like Bexley and Bromley or Havering and Redbridge

    Ummm, a third party candidate once won 39% of the vote in a London mayoral election and actually won the election.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601
    ClippP said:

    Of course. You have misunderstood the situation. We have it on the authority of HY no less, that the top priority for Conservatives is to defeat the SNP. It follows that Conservatives will vote for Lib Dem or Labour candidates if they have a good chance of defeating an SNP candidate.

    On the other hand, most normal Labour and Lib Dem voters strongly dislike the Tories, and even more so under the leadership of the present shower. There is nothing I want to see as much as Conservative candidates defeated. I could even be persuaded to consider voting SNP (were the conditions right), so much do I detest and despise the present government.
    People will do as they wish and prioritise as they wish of course, but theres really no getting away from that if one supports the union then at some level there will be cooperation and support with other unionist parties, even ones wrong on almost every other policy. Same applies to indy parties in places like Catalonia.

    When voting locally, nationally (Scotland or UK) people just might not be able to vote tactically, as is their right, but at some point if a unionist really is a unionist they will be standing shoulder to shoulder with a hated opponent even with no positive action on their part.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    Fox is just the latest no-hoper to jump in, and I continue to be saddened that people on Betfair won't back them even to 100 or so. Literally unlayable on the platform.
  • HYUFD said:

    New Panelbase poll has further bad news for Sturgeon with the SNP down 5% on the Scottish Parliament constituency vote and down 4% on the list vote and virtually unchanged on the 46.5% and 41% it got in 2016. Both the Scottish Conservatives and Scottish Labour are up 3% each and the Greens are also down.

    If true that means the SNP risks no majority at all in May

    https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1368372868569042945?s=20
    https://twitter.com/ScotTories/status/1368477645034389507?s=20

    And polling could be even worse as more is revealed

    I do not expect Sturgeon is having a very happy weekend looking at the Scottish newspapers and polls
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095

    Maybe, maybe not.

    Maybe a unionist party will emerge that Hoover's up the unionists votes. The BQ lost its way in Quebec.

    The best way for that to happen would be for unionism to win a second referendum, like they did in Quebec, which puts the issue to bed in the voters minds.

    But it seems some people are petrified of democracy. In which case they deserve to lose.
    Quebec's second referendum was 15 years after the first, not 7 ie a genuine generation
  • https://twitter.com/SundayTimesScot/status/1368460645964935170?s=20

    But.....apparently these figures are not weighted by voter turnout (why?) and will be updated later this week....

    Can I just clarify, the Panelbase poll in the Sunday Times does use voter turnout which is consistent with its previous poll it is the ComRes poll that has dropped weighting voter turnout so isn't consistent with its previous poll.

    Older readers may remember we used to call ComRes comedy results.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,272

    Glad I'm contributing to the gaiety of nations, even if it's only a couple of them!

    One doesn't, of course need more than one cataract operation per eye, AFAIK, but this woman, having had one on her right eye was, apparently, going to need one on her left in the not-too-distant.
    If I do get a problem in my right eye, the improvement in my left, the one I had done, would ensure I was back to the operating theatre PDQ!
    To be fair even routine surgery has a complication rate. She may not be a whinger so much as the one who got the short straw.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,327

    Khan is going to win, there is no doubt about that.

    That's why no serious Tory is even running and they're running Bailey instead. Because they don't have a proper candidate like Boris as they all know they'd be humiliated.

    I have long thought @Philip_Thompson was a Russian propoganda machine operated by several Kremlin aparatchiks. We have the comedian of the bunch posting this morning. "Because they don't have a proper candidate like Boris as they all know they'd be humiliated". That's a cracker!
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,012

    Have a look at Andrew Rawnsley in todays Guardian 'Why Boris Johnson, the greased piglet, is eluding the grasp of Keir Starmer.'

    Interesting as always from Rawnsley but he is completely blind to a central fact in trying to account for Boris 'getting away with it'.

    In politics all things are relative. Nothing is absolute. There are only two horses in the competition, especially in England, which is where Tories win elections. There is no conviction whatsoever that Labour is either more competent, would have done it better, or are a suitable government for post Covid or post Brexit. Tories are ahead (You Gov) in every socio economic group, and doing even better with C2DE than with ABC1- which is a huge culture shift.

    Boris is a genius and wins things. Labour has not yet found one to match. Against some absolute standard the Tories are of course awful, it makes no difference. It's only Labour they need to beat.

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    kle4 said:

    People will do as they wish and prioritise as they wish of course, but theres really no getting away from that if one supports the union then at some level there will be cooperation and support with other unionist parties, even ones wrong on almost every other policy. Same applies to indy parties in places like Catalonia.

    When voting locally, nationally (Scotland or UK) people just might not be able to vote tactically, as is their right, but at some point if a unionist really is a unionist they will be standing shoulder to shoulder with a hated opponent even with no positive action on their part.
    Sorry but no there is a getting away from that. You can very easily support the union but care about other principles more. There is no reason why support for the union must gazzump every other priority.

    There is a reason why the official Brexit campaign ostracised Farage during the referendum. They knew many people, myself included, would be much less likely to vote to Leave in a campaign fronted by him.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,559

    Can I just clarify, the Panelbase poll in the Sunday Times does use voter turnout which is consistent with its previous poll it is the ComRes poll that has dropped weighting voter turnout so isn't consistent with its previous poll.

    Older readers may remember we used to call ComRes comedy results.
    They'll be vindicated when the comedy result of the next referendum is the Scots voting to stay in the Union.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,030
    edited March 2021
    kle4 said:

    People will do as they wish and prioritise as they wish of course, but theres really no getting away from that if one supports the union then at some level there will be cooperation and support with other unionist parties, even ones wrong on almost every other policy. Same applies to indy parties in places like Catalonia.

    When voting locally, nationally (Scotland or UK) people just might not be able to vote tactically, as is their right, but at some point if a unionist really is a unionist they will be standing shoulder to shoulder with a hated opponent even with no positive action on their part.
    My wife and I would both vote for the union candidate irrespective of party if we still lived in Scotland ( for Holyrood)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601

    Ummm, a third party candidate once won 39% of the vote in a London mayoral election and actually won the election.
    Some indies are like third parties, some are like tenth parties.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095

    Ummm, a third party candidate once won 39% of the vote in a London mayoral election and actually won the election.
    Dobson was third in 2000 and got 13%, so 25% would be higher than the official Labour candidate then.

    Livingstone came first as an independent and Norris was second.

  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042

    I have long thought @Philip_Thompson was a Russian propoganda machine operated by several Kremlin aparatchiks. We have the comedian of the bunch posting this morning. "Because they don't have a proper candidate like Boris as they all know they'd be humiliated". That's a cracker!
    I'm no fan of Boris Johnson, but he clearly has (and, more to the point, had) an appeal with cosmopolitan Londoners which allowed him to win in a generally Labour-leaning city. And it's clearly true, imho, that the Tories struggled to get better candidates than Bailey to run because those people thought they'd lose heavily.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    The one interesting thing about Laurence Fox is that his father is an actor - quite a good one as it happens.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,272
    HYUFD said:

    If Fox got 25% of the vote that would be the highest share for a third party candidate in a London Mayoral election and could even get him to the runoff, though Khan would still likely win.

    Otherwise some voters will vote Fox in round 1 then for Bailey in the runoff.

    If Fox stands for the Assembly he could get in on the list, especially in somewhere like Bexley and Bromley or Havering and Redbridge

    Fox won't get 25%. Indeed he won't get 2.5%. He may get 0.25% though.

    The reason is that he is a tosser with no electoral base or policies.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited March 2021

    I have long thought @Philip_Thompson was a Russian propoganda machine operated by several Kremlin aparatchiks. We have the comedian of the bunch posting this morning. "Because they don't have a proper candidate like Boris as they all know they'd be humiliated". That's a cracker!
    You think the notion that the twice elected former Mayor of London, referendum winning frontman, landslide election winning Prime Minister, who won his party more votes than even Tony Blair in his heyday achieved is a proper candidate is a trolling joke?

    Until you can understand why Boris is a proper candidate your side will continue to deserve to lose General Elections.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,272
    Quincel said:

    I'm no fan of Boris Johnson, but he clearly has (and, more to the point, had) an appeal with cosmopolitan Londoners which allowed him to win in a generally Labour-leaning city. And it's clearly true, imho, that the Tories struggled to get better candidates than Bailey to run because those people thought they'd lose heavily.
    Yes, but that was when Johnson was pro EU and pro immigration.

    He wouldn't be allowed to stand on that platform as a Tory candidate now.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095
    edited March 2021
    Foxy said:

    Fox won't get 25%. Indeed he won't get 2.5%. He may get 0.25% though.

    The reason is that he is a tosser with no electoral base or policies.
    25% of Londoners want lockdown ended by the end of this month, 25% think Khan too woke as the figures in TSE's thread header show.

    They would be his target base
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    HYUFD said:

    Dobson was third in 2000 and got 13%, so 25% would be higher than the official Labour candidate then.

    Livingstone came first as an independent and Norris was second.

    He was still a third party.

    You talked about Fox making the run off. If you're defining parties as their positioning (not what the term means) if he got 25% and second he'd not be a third party by that twisted logic. So no it doesn't work.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    HYUFD said:

    New Panelbase poll has further bad news for Sturgeon with the SNP down 5% on the Scottish Parliament constituency vote and down 4% on the list vote and virtually unchanged on the 46.5% and 41% it got in 2016. Both the Scottish Conservatives and Scottish Labour are up 3% each and the Greens are also down.

    If true that means the SNP risks no majority at all in May

    https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1368372868569042945?s=20
    https://twitter.com/ScotTories/status/1368477645034389507?s=20

    Very interesting
  • Anyway politics off the agenda for the media today as they go way over the top with the Sussex's interview

    Really who cares?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601

    Sorry but no there is a getting away from that. You can very easily support the union but care about other principles more. There is no reason why support for the union must gazzump every other priority.

    There is a reason why the official Brexit campaign ostracised Farage during the referendum. They knew many people, myself included, would be much less likely to vote to Leave in a campaign fronted by him.
    That was the point. If someone cannot prioritise the union if it means they are technically working with labour/tory people they can certainly be free to do so, but it is a very low bar.

    It wasnt a scenario of who was leading a campaign or on specific issues, it was the basic concept - can I vote the same way as a Tory/labour supporter? If the answer is never, then union support in a referendum impossible so long as those parties are still unionist.

    Voting for representatives is different. Some just will never be able to tick the box of their hated opponents no matter what.

    But a union is like having a loyal opposition to show opposition to gov but support for the system. You will be on the same side as people you hate vs those who want to tear down the system.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,272
    HYUFD said:

    25% of Londoners want lockdown ended by the end of this month, 25% think Khan too woke as the figures in TSE's thread header show.

    They would be his target base
    Yes but that election is not until May, when lockdown will be over.

    The only interesting market would be an over/under market for him. I would suggest 1% of first preferences.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422

    Unionist tactical voting is pointless
    https://twitter.com/bnhw_/status/1367864926954524681?s=20

This discussion has been closed.