Stopping the SNP juggernaut – what are the chances for Scotland’s opposition parties? – politicalbet
Comments
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The first venue was a lock-up in the Woodgrange Road but I'm clearly not one of the elite as I'm going to Excel (the exhibition centre, not the spreadsheet).BluestBlue said:
Yes, all individuals canny enough to cotton on to the existence of Operation Newham World Order receive such letters. Don't be surprised if your appointment happens to direct you to a derelict warehouse next to the Beckton Sewage Treatment Works...
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Yours in an excellent post. I'd be really interested to hear @malcolmg's views as to what you say, but I imagine he's keeping his powder dry given that there may be more explosive and less touchy-feely stuff.YBarddCwsc said:
The relationship between Sturgeon & Salmond has become one of extraordinary guilt, recrimination and bitterness.Leon said:
Also depends on what Salmond does. Is there still time and space for another maneuver?MaxPB said:It won't be the inquiry itself that changes people's minds it will be the idea that the FM directed the apparatus of the government to persecute an individual that was a political enemy that will do it. Both Labour and Tory need to absolutely hammer this point home over and over again until election day. What kind of country is the SNP looking to create? Will it look like England, Sweden or Denmark? Or will it look like Zimbabwe or Russia where the politicians in power try and take down their rivals using different arms of the state.
He must have been seething today. Sturgeon denounced him many times, and essentially labelled him as guilty. Despite his being acquitted of all charges.
He will want blood. Again
How did that happen?
I think Sturgeon was well aware of Salmond's inappropriate behaviour long before she became First Minister. She feels so bitter because she is compromised by the fact that she had to stay silent on his behalf. She was forced to betray her beliefs and convictions. Though she could not act while Salmond was so powerful, she could when she became FM. She knows that Salmond is guilty, she repeated it again today. She is so emotionally committed to convicting Salmond that she has been caught out in lies, and possibly worse.
And Salmond feels bitter because he believes he has been stabbed in the back by his former protege. He believes that his misdemeanours were minor -- maybe he now accepts they were inappropriate, but they were minor -- and by exposing his weaknesses, she has reduced him to a rather ridiculous, lecherous figure & she has damaged the cause of independence. She has betrayed him.
The ferocity with which they attack each other speaks of terrible personal guilt and betrayal.
I think it's clear that there has to be change in the Scottish system so that the risk of such possible entanglement can't happen again. (Doubt anyone disagrees)
I think Sturgeon is very lucky to have not strayed quite far enough to be in real trouble. I do think she'll have to go though. She's become tainted in the way Blair was - wildly unfairly, but it'll stick.
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They've now sorted out the map. There are now only two local authority areas with case rates above 200 per 100k: Corby and Leicester. Matters appear to be steadily improving on a daily basis in most areas.Black_Rook said:
Now up - addition of some historic cases from Scotland seems to be the cause of the holdup.Black_Rook said:Three hours late and today's Covid update is still delayed, grrr....
The UK case rate has declined from 94.9 per 100k yesterday to 89.2 per 100k today. Deaths are down by a full third week-on-week.
The case map shows the same collection of stubborn hotspots so I don't think it's been revised today.0 -
You’re somewhat ignoring the 30-40% of Scots who are passionately Unionist. There’s plenty of them. Probably about the same as there are passionate Nats.Black_Rook said:
Well, there's a long way to go, and we shall see.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The most recent poll was 50/50 and independence falling in the polls and this before these hearingsBlack_Rook said:
So maybe the SNP only has thirty years left in power? You may very well be right. It depends rather on how long it actually takes them to get independence over the finishing line.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You could gave written that about Labour in Scotland 30 years agoBlack_Rook said:I came into this discussion thinking that the legacy UK parties were permafucked and the SNP would simply romp to yet another victory.
However, I granted our guest authors the courtesy of reading their piece in full, anyway.
The legacy UK parties are probably* permafucked and the SNP is probably* going to romp to yet another victory.
*By probably I mean certainly, of course. The Conservatives and Labour don't merely have 'a lot of work to do in the next two months' to make significant progress. They need to build, test and commission a mind-control field generator that can successfully reprogram the brains of the entire population. Not even the Chinese have figured out how to make that happen.
I don't doubt that there are Scots who still feel British but they're a minority and, I think you'll find, a shrinking one at that - something that will be brutally laid bare by the results of this year's census, when I expect that the ratio of British to English/Scottish/Welsh/(Northern) Irish identification will have changed markedly all over the UK since 2011.
The only thing that's holding the Union together now is money. If the average Scottish voter thought that she would be £1 per year better off out than in, she'd be off like a shot.
It is no means certain that Scotland will vote for independence
The Achilles' heel of the independence movement is, as I said before, money. If a large part of the Scottish electorate didn't believe that separation would put their taxes up then they'd have voted to go in 2014. And it could yet do for the nationalists again - although quite why the maintenance of a state that's held together mainly by bribery is something that is either morally healthy or to be desired is never adequately explained.
OTOH 'you will be poorer if you do this' was the central theme of David Cameron's campaign to vanquish Brexit, and look what became of him.
This is one reason I believe Indy would be a tragedy - for Scotland. It would make Brexit look like a harmonious decision which brought peace to the nation. Indy would unleash demons, and sow decades of bitterness. Ending a 300 year old union would be emotionally explosive (and economically ruinous)
Scotland is not Ireland in 1921 when the large majority of Catholics had a settled will for secession. Scotland is grievously divided.
If Sturgeon gets her maj and seeks Indy, Boris must be the statesman, which will be hard for him. Even as he refuses a vote he must search for compromise, to save Scots and Brits from many more years of rancour0 -
The problem is that the only party more divided and witless than the SNP is all the others...RochdalePioneers said:What can stop the SNP juggernaut? Short of a Salmondista splinter party, I'm not sure anything can,
Not that the choice is a lot better south of the border.0 -
Death total today is a bit artifactual, ~170 deaths "found" in Scotland (Obviously they'll all be backdates)0
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Did they give the arrangements to the same company that built the Brandenburg airport?Andy_JS said:"But even to get an appointment in the first place, users must navigate a digital platform that has become a byword for clunkiness. Visitors to the portal, embraced by five of Germany’s 16 states, have to go through 10 online steps, including 2-factor authentication — a tricky task for an octogenarian. In Poland, by contrast, you simply enter your social security number.
“The system’s a piece of shit,” said one German health official in a state that had embraced the platform. He said he and his colleagues “want to shoot ourselves it’s so bad. I can’t believe we chained ourselves to this.”
The official said that for months the website was only able to give users one appointment — although two are needed for a full inoculation — and does not allow them to go on a waiting list to be notified when more vaccine doses become available. “It’s totally amateurish and incredibly inflexible,” he said.
The sense of shame is growing. “This chaos with the allocation of vaccine appointments is absolutely unworthy of a high-tech nation like Germany,” said Achim Berg, head of Bitkom, a digital lobby group."
https://www.ft.com/content/33f8ffd6-066b-449c-bf7e-edd51d661b192 -
What's quite amazing was the justice minister's running commentary of the evidence session. If that doesn't indicate the lines between party and the judiciary are blurred, I don't know what would.Omnium said:
Yours in an excellent post. I'd be really interested to hear @malcolmg's views as to what you say, but I imagine he's keeping his powder dry given that there may be more explosive and less touchy-feely stuff.YBarddCwsc said:
The relationship between Sturgeon & Salmond has become one of extraordinary guilt, recrimination and bitterness.Leon said:
Also depends on what Salmond does. Is there still time and space for another maneuver?MaxPB said:It won't be the inquiry itself that changes people's minds it will be the idea that the FM directed the apparatus of the government to persecute an individual that was a political enemy that will do it. Both Labour and Tory need to absolutely hammer this point home over and over again until election day. What kind of country is the SNP looking to create? Will it look like England, Sweden or Denmark? Or will it look like Zimbabwe or Russia where the politicians in power try and take down their rivals using different arms of the state.
He must have been seething today. Sturgeon denounced him many times, and essentially labelled him as guilty. Despite his being acquitted of all charges.
He will want blood. Again
How did that happen?
I think Sturgeon was well aware of Salmond's inappropriate behaviour long before she became First Minister. She feels so bitter because she is compromised by the fact that she had to stay silent on his behalf. She was forced to betray her beliefs and convictions. Though she could not act while Salmond was so powerful, she could when she became FM. She knows that Salmond is guilty, she repeated it again today. She is so emotionally committed to convicting Salmond that she has been caught out in lies, and possibly worse.
And Salmond feels bitter because he believes he has been stabbed in the back by his former protege. He believes that his misdemeanours were minor -- maybe he now accepts they were inappropriate, but they were minor -- and by exposing his weaknesses, she has reduced him to a rather ridiculous, lecherous figure & she has damaged the cause of independence. She has betrayed him.
The ferocity with which they attack each other speaks of terrible personal guilt and betrayal.
I think it's clear that there has to be change in the Scottish system so that the risk of such possible entanglement can't happen again. (Doubt anyone disagrees)
I think Sturgeon is very lucky to have not strayed quite far enough to be in real trouble. I do think she'll have to go though. She's become tainted in the way Blair was - wildly unfairly, but it'll stick.1 -
It's always bloody Leicester...Black_Rook said:
They've now sorted out the map. There are now only two local authority areas with case rates above 200 per 100k: Corby and Leicester. Matters appear to be steadily improving on a daily basis in most areas.Black_Rook said:
Now up - addition of some historic cases from Scotland seems to be the cause of the holdup.Black_Rook said:Three hours late and today's Covid update is still delayed, grrr....
The UK case rate has declined from 94.9 per 100k yesterday to 89.2 per 100k today. Deaths are down by a full third week-on-week.
The case map shows the same collection of stubborn hotspots so I don't think it's been revised today.0 -
In the end it is for the Scots to decide but of course they first have to conduct indyref2 and that is upto the UK governmentBlack_Rook said:
Well, there's a long way to go, and we shall see.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The most recent poll was 50/50 and independence falling in the polls and this before these hearingsBlack_Rook said:
So maybe the SNP only has thirty years left in power? You may very well be right. It depends rather on how long it actually takes them to get independence over the finishing line.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You could gave written that about Labour in Scotland 30 years agoBlack_Rook said:I came into this discussion thinking that the legacy UK parties were permafucked and the SNP would simply romp to yet another victory.
However, I granted our guest authors the courtesy of reading their piece in full, anyway.
The legacy UK parties are probably* permafucked and the SNP is probably* going to romp to yet another victory.
*By probably I mean certainly, of course. The Conservatives and Labour don't merely have 'a lot of work to do in the next two months' to make significant progress. They need to build, test and commission a mind-control field generator that can successfully reprogram the brains of the entire population. Not even the Chinese have figured out how to make that happen.
I don't doubt that there are Scots who still feel British but they're a minority and, I think you'll find, a shrinking one at that - something that will be brutally laid bare by the results of this year's census, when I expect that the ratio of British to English/Scottish/Welsh/(Northern) Irish identification will have changed markedly all over the UK since 2011.
The only thing that's holding the Union together now is money. If the average Scottish voter thought that she would be £1 per year better off out than in, she'd be off like a shot.
It is no means certain that Scotland will vote for independence
The Achilles' heel of the independence movement is, as I said before, money. If a large part of the Scottish electorate didn't believe that separation would put their taxes up then they'd have voted to go in 2014. And it could yet do for the nationalists again - although quite why the maintenance of a state that's held together mainly by bribery is something that is either morally healthy or to be desired is never adequately explained.
OTOH 'you will be poorer if you do this' was the central theme of David Cameron's campaign to vanquish Brexit, and look what became of him.0 -
SorryFoxy said:
It's always bloody Leicester...Black_Rook said:
They've now sorted out the map. There are now only two local authority areas with case rates above 200 per 100k: Corby and Leicester. Matters appear to be steadily improving on a daily basis in most areas.Black_Rook said:
Now up - addition of some historic cases from Scotland seems to be the cause of the holdup.Black_Rook said:Three hours late and today's Covid update is still delayed, grrr....
The UK case rate has declined from 94.9 per 100k yesterday to 89.2 per 100k today. Deaths are down by a full third week-on-week.
The case map shows the same collection of stubborn hotspots so I don't think it's been revised today.
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Truthfully, I don’t think that indicates much apart from the fact that Humza Yousaf is a complete muppet.RobD said:
What's quite amazing was the justice minister's running commentary of the evidence session. If that doesn't indicate the lines between party and the judiciary are blurred, I don't know what would.Omnium said:
Yours in an excellent post. I'd be really interested to hear @malcolmg's views as to what you say, but I imagine he's keeping his powder dry given that there may be more explosive and less touchy-feely stuff.YBarddCwsc said:
The relationship between Sturgeon & Salmond has become one of extraordinary guilt, recrimination and bitterness.Leon said:
Also depends on what Salmond does. Is there still time and space for another maneuver?MaxPB said:It won't be the inquiry itself that changes people's minds it will be the idea that the FM directed the apparatus of the government to persecute an individual that was a political enemy that will do it. Both Labour and Tory need to absolutely hammer this point home over and over again until election day. What kind of country is the SNP looking to create? Will it look like England, Sweden or Denmark? Or will it look like Zimbabwe or Russia where the politicians in power try and take down their rivals using different arms of the state.
He must have been seething today. Sturgeon denounced him many times, and essentially labelled him as guilty. Despite his being acquitted of all charges.
He will want blood. Again
How did that happen?
I think Sturgeon was well aware of Salmond's inappropriate behaviour long before she became First Minister. She feels so bitter because she is compromised by the fact that she had to stay silent on his behalf. She was forced to betray her beliefs and convictions. Though she could not act while Salmond was so powerful, she could when she became FM. She knows that Salmond is guilty, she repeated it again today. She is so emotionally committed to convicting Salmond that she has been caught out in lies, and possibly worse.
And Salmond feels bitter because he believes he has been stabbed in the back by his former protege. He believes that his misdemeanours were minor -- maybe he now accepts they were inappropriate, but they were minor -- and by exposing his weaknesses, she has reduced him to a rather ridiculous, lecherous figure & she has damaged the cause of independence. She has betrayed him.
The ferocity with which they attack each other speaks of terrible personal guilt and betrayal.
I think it's clear that there has to be change in the Scottish system so that the risk of such possible entanglement can't happen again. (Doubt anyone disagrees)
I think Sturgeon is very lucky to have not strayed quite far enough to be in real trouble. I do think she'll have to go though. She's become tainted in the way Blair was - wildly unfairly, but it'll stick.
And we already knew that.1 -
querdenken Sie was querdenken wir?Theuniondivvie said:Posted mainly for the word 'querdenkers'
https://twitter.com/MikeStuchbery_/status/1367198574715543552?s=201 -
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Will Macron be labelling Pfizer as "quasi-ineffective" ?DougSeal said:
4 -
An over-reliance on technology is going to destroy western civilisation. See Dune, Battlestar Galactica (reboot) etc etc. We’re one rogue AI or a Carrington Event from it all going to sh*t.Andy_JS said:"But even to get an appointment in the first place, users must navigate a digital platform that has become a byword for clunkiness. Visitors to the portal, embraced by five of Germany’s 16 states, have to go through 10 online steps, including 2-factor authentication — a tricky task for an octogenarian. In Poland, by contrast, you simply enter your social security number.
“The system’s a piece of shit,” said one German health official in a state that had embraced the platform. He said he and his colleagues “want to shoot ourselves it’s so bad. I can’t believe we chained ourselves to this.”
The official said that for months the website was only able to give users one appointment — although two are needed for a full inoculation — and does not allow them to go on a waiting list to be notified when more vaccine doses become available. “It’s totally amateurish and incredibly inflexible,” he said.
The sense of shame is growing. “This chaos with the allocation of vaccine appointments is absolutely unworthy of a high-tech nation like Germany,” said Achim Berg, head of Bitkom, a digital lobby group."
https://www.ft.com/content/33f8ffd6-066b-449c-bf7e-edd51d661b192 -
It's moments like that, and he'll be far from the first to do it, which reveal that politicians can be unnecessarily stupid because of Twitter.ydoethur said:
Truthfully, I don’t think that indicates much apart from the fact that Humza Yousaf is a complete muppet.RobD said:
What's quite amazing was the justice minister's running commentary of the evidence session. If that doesn't indicate the lines between party and the judiciary are blurred, I don't know what would.Omnium said:
Yours in an excellent post. I'd be really interested to hear @malcolmg's views as to what you say, but I imagine he's keeping his powder dry given that there may be more explosive and less touchy-feely stuff.YBarddCwsc said:
The relationship between Sturgeon & Salmond has become one of extraordinary guilt, recrimination and bitterness.Leon said:
Also depends on what Salmond does. Is there still time and space for another maneuver?MaxPB said:It won't be the inquiry itself that changes people's minds it will be the idea that the FM directed the apparatus of the government to persecute an individual that was a political enemy that will do it. Both Labour and Tory need to absolutely hammer this point home over and over again until election day. What kind of country is the SNP looking to create? Will it look like England, Sweden or Denmark? Or will it look like Zimbabwe or Russia where the politicians in power try and take down their rivals using different arms of the state.
He must have been seething today. Sturgeon denounced him many times, and essentially labelled him as guilty. Despite his being acquitted of all charges.
He will want blood. Again
How did that happen?
I think Sturgeon was well aware of Salmond's inappropriate behaviour long before she became First Minister. She feels so bitter because she is compromised by the fact that she had to stay silent on his behalf. She was forced to betray her beliefs and convictions. Though she could not act while Salmond was so powerful, she could when she became FM. She knows that Salmond is guilty, she repeated it again today. She is so emotionally committed to convicting Salmond that she has been caught out in lies, and possibly worse.
And Salmond feels bitter because he believes he has been stabbed in the back by his former protege. He believes that his misdemeanours were minor -- maybe he now accepts they were inappropriate, but they were minor -- and by exposing his weaknesses, she has reduced him to a rather ridiculous, lecherous figure & she has damaged the cause of independence. She has betrayed him.
The ferocity with which they attack each other speaks of terrible personal guilt and betrayal.
I think it's clear that there has to be change in the Scottish system so that the risk of such possible entanglement can't happen again. (Doubt anyone disagrees)
I think Sturgeon is very lucky to have not strayed quite far enough to be in real trouble. I do think she'll have to go though. She's become tainted in the way Blair was - wildly unfairly, but it'll stick.
And we already knew that.
I mean, any number of people online would be happy to snark at their political opponents during the session, actual politicians and particularly those with senior positions really don't need to waste time or potentially do something silly by doing it as well.
Opposition politicians maybe have a bit more of a motive, as they won't have positions of influence that they could undermine, but if you are in power? Just stay quiet.1 -
To quote Butch Cassidy (or maybe it was the Sundance Kid) “They could surrender to us but I wouldn’t count on that”.RochdalePioneers said:What can stop the SNP juggernaut? Short of a Salmondista splinter party, I'm not sure anything can,
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Nonsense BigG (the first time I think I've ever said that). Indyref2 isn't in the picture when it comes to the governance of Scotland today. Mostly its what happens today that matters.Big_G_NorthWales said:
In the end it is for the Scots to decide but of course they first have to conduct indyref2 and that is upto the UK governmentBlack_Rook said:
Well, there's a long way to go, and we shall see.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The most recent poll was 50/50 and independence falling in the polls and this before these hearingsBlack_Rook said:
So maybe the SNP only has thirty years left in power? You may very well be right. It depends rather on how long it actually takes them to get independence over the finishing line.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You could gave written that about Labour in Scotland 30 years agoBlack_Rook said:I came into this discussion thinking that the legacy UK parties were permafucked and the SNP would simply romp to yet another victory.
However, I granted our guest authors the courtesy of reading their piece in full, anyway.
The legacy UK parties are probably* permafucked and the SNP is probably* going to romp to yet another victory.
*By probably I mean certainly, of course. The Conservatives and Labour don't merely have 'a lot of work to do in the next two months' to make significant progress. They need to build, test and commission a mind-control field generator that can successfully reprogram the brains of the entire population. Not even the Chinese have figured out how to make that happen.
I don't doubt that there are Scots who still feel British but they're a minority and, I think you'll find, a shrinking one at that - something that will be brutally laid bare by the results of this year's census, when I expect that the ratio of British to English/Scottish/Welsh/(Northern) Irish identification will have changed markedly all over the UK since 2011.
The only thing that's holding the Union together now is money. If the average Scottish voter thought that she would be £1 per year better off out than in, she'd be off like a shot.
It is no means certain that Scotland will vote for independence
The Achilles' heel of the independence movement is, as I said before, money. If a large part of the Scottish electorate didn't believe that separation would put their taxes up then they'd have voted to go in 2014. And it could yet do for the nationalists again - although quite why the maintenance of a state that's held together mainly by bribery is something that is either morally healthy or to be desired is never adequately explained.
OTOH 'you will be poorer if you do this' was the central theme of David Cameron's campaign to vanquish Brexit, and look what became of him.0 -
CON VOTERSBig_G_NorthWales said:
Approve – 76%
Disapprove – 10%
Blimey. If McDonnell had proposed the same measure I think it'd be less than 76% in favour ?1 -
That will be a big part of it. The context of the situation will be another part. But I'm not sure that even Tory voters would have been that against previously - it's a tax which doesn't hit them directly, I would have thought it would be quite popular.Pulpstar said:
CON VOTERSBig_G_NorthWales said:
Approve – 76%
Disapprove – 10%
Blimey. If McDonnell had proposed the same measure I think it'd be less than 76% in favour ?0 -
Three quarters of UK adults have read the budget?Big_G_NorthWales said:1 -
62% of the Scottish population answered the national identity question in the 2011 census as "Scottish only" and the number will only have moved in one direction in the subsequent decade. I don't believe that there's this vast reservoir of committed unionists. There will certainly be some committed unionists, and another tranche of pragmatic unionists, and a fair number of people who just sort of sit around in the middle as well, but I somehow doubt that there's this ocean of pro-Union sentiment out there in Scotland, any more than there was of pro-EU sentiment in Britain in 2016. It's a niche interest.Leon said:
You’re somewhat ignoring the 30-40% of Scots who are passionately Unionist. There’s plenty of them. Probably about the same as there are passionate Nats.Black_Rook said:
Well, there's a long way to go, and we shall see.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The most recent poll was 50/50 and independence falling in the polls and this before these hearingsBlack_Rook said:
So maybe the SNP only has thirty years left in power? You may very well be right. It depends rather on how long it actually takes them to get independence over the finishing line.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You could gave written that about Labour in Scotland 30 years agoBlack_Rook said:I came into this discussion thinking that the legacy UK parties were permafucked and the SNP would simply romp to yet another victory.
However, I granted our guest authors the courtesy of reading their piece in full, anyway.
The legacy UK parties are probably* permafucked and the SNP is probably* going to romp to yet another victory.
*By probably I mean certainly, of course. The Conservatives and Labour don't merely have 'a lot of work to do in the next two months' to make significant progress. They need to build, test and commission a mind-control field generator that can successfully reprogram the brains of the entire population. Not even the Chinese have figured out how to make that happen.
I don't doubt that there are Scots who still feel British but they're a minority and, I think you'll find, a shrinking one at that - something that will be brutally laid bare by the results of this year's census, when I expect that the ratio of British to English/Scottish/Welsh/(Northern) Irish identification will have changed markedly all over the UK since 2011.
The only thing that's holding the Union together now is money. If the average Scottish voter thought that she would be £1 per year better off out than in, she'd be off like a shot.
It is no means certain that Scotland will vote for independence
The Achilles' heel of the independence movement is, as I said before, money. If a large part of the Scottish electorate didn't believe that separation would put their taxes up then they'd have voted to go in 2014. And it could yet do for the nationalists again - although quite why the maintenance of a state that's held together mainly by bribery is something that is either morally healthy or to be desired is never adequately explained.
OTOH 'you will be poorer if you do this' was the central theme of David Cameron's campaign to vanquish Brexit, and look what became of him.
This is one reason I believe Indy would be a tragedy - for Scotland. It would make Brexit look like a harmonious decision which brought peace to the nation. Indy would unleash demons, and sow decades of bitterness. Ending a 300 year old union would be emotionally explosive (and economically ruinous)
Scotland is not Ireland in 1921 when the large majority of Catholics had a settled will for secession. Scotland is grievously divided.
If Sturgeon gets her maj and seeks Indy, Boris must be the statesman, which will be hard for him. Even as he refuses a vote he must search for compromise, to save Scots and Brits from many more years of rancour
As I said, the swing vote in Scotland consists of middle-class waverers who fear that independence will hit them in their bank balances and pension pots. It's why the campaign in 2014 revolved principally around sterling, state pensions and the Barnett formula. Britain is held together by money. There is nothing else left.1 -
Whatever the macroeconomic merits and demerits, getting the cash from businesses instead of individuals this time around is smart politics. There's a reason Cameron-Osborne could never exceed 36% in a GE, and that's just not good enough any more.Big_G_NorthWales said:0 -
And he's getting the cash from individuals too anyway.BluestBlue said:
Whatever the macroeconomic merits and demerits, getting the cash from businesses instead of individuals this time around is smart politics. There's a reason Cameron-Osborne could never exceed 36% in a GE, and that's just not good enough any more.Big_G_NorthWales said:
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Not part of the question, sensibly. It won't be 3/4 of us wonks.RobD said:
Three quarters of UK adults have read the budget?Big_G_NorthWales said:0 -
0
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Allister Heath reckons the tories have trashed Thatcherism and embraced the European politics of decline.
Yep.0 -
Sure, but no one really notices fiscal drag. I bloody hate tax rises, but I can't muster more than a 'meh' about it.RobD said:
And he's getting the cash from individuals too anyway.BluestBlue said:
Whatever the macroeconomic merits and demerits, getting the cash from businesses instead of individuals this time around is smart politics. There's a reason Cameron-Osborne could never exceed 36% in a GE, and that's just not good enough any more.Big_G_NorthWales said:0 -
Because of a single tax rise?contrarian said:Allister Heath reckons the tories have trashed Thatcherism and embraced the European politics of decline.
Yep.2 -
WTF else are the Tories going to do? Tell the Red Wall seats (which they need) to get on their bikes and find work.contrarian said:Allister Heath reckons the tories have trashed Thatcherism and embraced the European politics of decline.
Yep.3 -
Well, if that average loss of life figure of 10 years is anyway close to accurate, the government will save a decent sum of money.Foxy said:Estimated at £1.5 billion next year...
https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/1367202131749519363?s=191 -
Tbh, judging a budget on day 0 is always a bit of a poor idea. Let's wait until the weekend to see if it's still holding together. However, I will say the presentation of it was very good and the fiscal drag on personal taxation was pitched in a way that has taken the sting out of it. Reminiscent of Labour's NI rise to pay for the NHS despite NI not being hypothecated.4
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The lowest rate of corporation tax under Thatcher was 34%.contrarian said:Allister Heath reckons the tories have trashed Thatcherism and embraced the European politics of decline.
Yep.5 -
I'm confused why contrarian isn't happy about the budget. The deficit, which he has been going on about for months now, will be entirely gone in a few years.eek said:
WTF else are the Tories going to do? Tell the Red Wall seats (which they need) to get on their bikes and find work.contrarian said:Allister Heath reckons the tories have trashed Thatcherism and embraced the European politics of decline.
Yep.1 -
People always seem to agree with taxes on other people...Big_G_NorthWales said:3 -
The thing is it's very clean and very honest as to just why it's there. It is ghastly, but we all knew that ghastly was in the pipeline. Sunak has done well to find an interesting mechanism to oil the waters a little with the super-deduction thing.Pulpstar said:
CON VOTERSBig_G_NorthWales said:
Approve – 76%
Disapprove – 10%
Blimey. If McDonnell had proposed the same measure I think it'd be less than 76% in favour ?
McDonnell is/was about destroying enterprise. There's no parallel.
2 -
How dare you bring facts into this discussion? Don’t you realise that’s unsporting?williamglenn said:
The lowest rate of corporation tax under Thatcher was 34%.contrarian said:Allister Heath reckons the tories have trashed Thatcherism and embraced the European politics of decline.
Yep.1 -
Indeed, that is the very definition of "fair taxation".FrancisUrquhart said:
People always seem to agree with taxes on other people...Big_G_NorthWales said:1 -
UK cases by specimen date
0 -
I don't see that they'll have a choice once the rest of the developed world starts picking at the carcass of the UK economy in 2023 when big businesses desert for lower tax countries.eek said:
WTF else are the Tories going to do? Tell the Red Wall seats (which they need) to get on their bikes and find work.contrarian said:Allister Heath reckons the tories have trashed Thatcherism and embraced the European politics of decline.
Yep.
The 25% rate is worse than anything I had imagined. Unless the 100% investment allowance is made permanent then it's going to result in significant job losses, even the OBR have forecast a huge slowdown in business investment in 2023 to a contraction of -1.5%, it will mean job losses in the run up to an election.
It's genuinely rubbish and shows Rishi isn't fit for the office of chancellor.2 -
UK cases by specimen date and scaled to 100K population
0 -
UK local R
0 -
John O’Farrell described once how he and his fellow former BenniteFoxy said:
Indeed, that is the very definition of "fair taxation".FrancisUrquhart said:
People always seem to agree with taxes on other people...Big_G_NorthWales said:nuttersfriends would meet in 1996 and declare loudly they were still in favour of higher taxes on the better off. ‘Then there would be a nervous pause, after which we all agreed ‘better off’ meant people earning about five grand a year more than we did.’4 -
UK cases summary
1 -
Different era. Multinationals were far less mobile and tax havens much more dodgy.williamglenn said:
The lowest rate of corporation tax under Thatcher was 34%.contrarian said:Allister Heath reckons the tories have trashed Thatcherism and embraced the European politics of decline.
Yep.1 -
UK hospitals
0 -
UK deaths
0 -
1
-
UK R
From case data
from hospital admissions
0 -
Age related data - unadjusted
0 -
The trend of cases in France is still going in the wrong direction.
https://twitter.com/COVIDLive/status/13671841557889310770 -
Age related data - scaled to 100K per age group
0 -
I don;t think so.RobD said:
I'm confused why contrarian isn't happy about the budget. The deficit, which he has been going on about for months now, will be entirely gone in a few years.eek said:
WTF else are the Tories going to do? Tell the Red Wall seats (which they need) to get on their bikes and find work.contrarian said:Allister Heath reckons the tories have trashed Thatcherism and embraced the European politics of decline.
Yep.
The economy is not and will not be big enough to support the weight of debt and spending that has been piled on it now and in the future.
It simply won't yield enough revenues, no matter how high taxes are.
0 -
UK vaccinations
0 -
The weight of debt? A significant chunk of that is QE, so it isn't really owed to anyone at all. As for spending being pilled on, that's not what the OBR forecasts suggest.contrarian said:
I don;t think so.RobD said:
I'm confused why contrarian isn't happy about the budget. The deficit, which he has been going on about for months now, will be entirely gone in a few years.eek said:
WTF else are the Tories going to do? Tell the Red Wall seats (which they need) to get on their bikes and find work.contrarian said:Allister Heath reckons the tories have trashed Thatcherism and embraced the European politics of decline.
Yep.
The economy is not and will not be big enough to support the weight of debt and spending that has been piled on it now and in the future.
It simply won't yield enough revenues, no matter how high taxes are.1 -
0
-
All the Scottish media are going easy on Sturgeon. She’s their best bulwark against Independence.Leon said:One intriguing insight offered by Sturgeon’s evidence is how people can have entirely different perspectives on the exact same thing.
eg Magnus Linklater, no Nationalist, thinks Sturgeon did pretty well today, though she left questions unanswered
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/nicola-sturgeons-robust-performance-before-the-inquiry-ensures-her-political-survival-n820qc80n
I struggle to believe we watched the same hearing. She did not do ‘well’ - to my mind. I saw the whole shebang, all 8 hours (tragically) and I made a determined effort to be neutral. Why lie to yourself?
She hummed and hawed, she told obvious untruths (see below), she looked more rattled than I’ve ever seen before, she got confused, she attacked Salmond way too much, and she admitted that some crucial parts of her OWN evidence were implausible - yet she could not explain why we should still believe her. And she was reduced to near tears.
In her favour, she endured. 8 hours would trouble anyone. Bailie was a formidable interrogator, but Sturgeon survived. There was no knockout blow.
But ‘did well’? No way. 6/10 at best
However I am forced to confront the fact that, as I am a Unionist, it is impossible for me to be neutral, and my unconscious bias will always show. And that’s true of everyone - no one can be TRULY neutral. Which is a bit depressing
Or Magnus Linklater is talking bollox. Also possible0 -
Just post a snap of your teddy-bear.TheScreamingEagles said:Can relate, CAN SO RELATE.
https://twitter.com/AmroliwalaBBC/status/1367208909853843460
I've watched much of most budgets for the last 35 years. The bear left in a huff!
0 -
Our economists and financial modellers have been working on this, the government's plans are what we call a 'Katie Price's boobs.'MaxPB said:
I don't see that they'll have a choice once the rest of the developed world starts picking at the carcass of the UK economy in 2023 when big businesses desert for lower tax countries.eek said:
WTF else are the Tories going to do? Tell the Red Wall seats (which they need) to get on their bikes and find work.contrarian said:Allister Heath reckons the tories have trashed Thatcherism and embraced the European politics of decline.
Yep.
The 25% rate is worse than anything I had imagined. Unless the 100% investment allowance is made permanent then it's going to result in significant job losses, even the OBR have forecast a huge slowdown in business investment in 2023 to a contraction of -1.5%, it will mean job losses in the run up to an election.
It's genuinely rubbish and shows Rishi isn't fit for the office of chancellor.
A massive figure blown out of all proportion, with no visible means of support, and so fucking artificial.0 -
Hopefully that council is a group of ridiculous old farts listened to by no one, but, well, it's Northern Ireland.Scott_xP said:0 -
Had they previously been censored by the Lord Advocate?Pulpstar said:Death total today is a bit artifactual, ~170 deaths "found" in Scotland (Obviously they'll all be backdates)
0 -
The problem is, of course, that if you're going to oppose this particular tax to pay for old people to have their arses wiped, then what do you do instead? Do you (a) raise a different tax instead or (b) let their arses go unwiped?MaxPB said:
I don't see that they'll have a choice once the rest of the developed world starts picking at the carcass of the UK economy in 2023 when big businesses desert for lower tax countries.eek said:
WTF else are the Tories going to do? Tell the Red Wall seats (which they need) to get on their bikes and find work.contrarian said:Allister Heath reckons the tories have trashed Thatcherism and embraced the European politics of decline.
Yep.
The 25% rate is worse than anything I had imagined. Unless the 100% investment allowance is made permanent then it's going to result in significant job losses, even the OBR have forecast a huge slowdown in business investment in 2023 to a contraction of -1.5%, it will mean job losses in the run up to an election.
It's genuinely rubbish and shows Rishi isn't fit for the office of chancellor.
(The theoretical optimal answer is, of course, to extract the necessary money directly from the elderly and their estates, but then they and their enraged heirs storm off in a huff and you lose power.)1 -
Yup, it's the same conclusion we've come to as well. I think by the weekend the budget is going to look a lot less good. The corporation tax rise especially should be seized by Labour as jobs and investment killing. I'm honestly shocked the chancellor doesn't have the political foresight to see just how badly job losses are going to play in the run up to 2024.TheScreamingEagles said:
Our economists and financial modellers have been working on this, the government's plans are what we call a 'Katie Price's boobs.'MaxPB said:
I don't see that they'll have a choice once the rest of the developed world starts picking at the carcass of the UK economy in 2023 when big businesses desert for lower tax countries.eek said:
WTF else are the Tories going to do? Tell the Red Wall seats (which they need) to get on their bikes and find work.contrarian said:Allister Heath reckons the tories have trashed Thatcherism and embraced the European politics of decline.
Yep.
The 25% rate is worse than anything I had imagined. Unless the 100% investment allowance is made permanent then it's going to result in significant job losses, even the OBR have forecast a huge slowdown in business investment in 2023 to a contraction of -1.5%, it will mean job losses in the run up to an election.
It's genuinely rubbish and shows Rishi isn't fit for the office of chancellor.
A massive figure blown out of all proportion, with no visible means of support, and so fucking artificial.
The other area is business rates where there's basically fuck all in terms of a step change for high street retail having to compete with online.0 -
+1DougSeal said:
An over-reliance on technology is going to destroy western civilisation. See Dune, Battlestar Galactica (reboot) etc etc. We’re one rogue AI or a Carrington Event from it all going to sh*t.Andy_JS said:"But even to get an appointment in the first place, users must navigate a digital platform that has become a byword for clunkiness. Visitors to the portal, embraced by five of Germany’s 16 states, have to go through 10 online steps, including 2-factor authentication — a tricky task for an octogenarian. In Poland, by contrast, you simply enter your social security number.
“The system’s a piece of shit,” said one German health official in a state that had embraced the platform. He said he and his colleagues “want to shoot ourselves it’s so bad. I can’t believe we chained ourselves to this.”
The official said that for months the website was only able to give users one appointment — although two are needed for a full inoculation — and does not allow them to go on a waiting list to be notified when more vaccine doses become available. “It’s totally amateurish and incredibly inflexible,” he said.
The sense of shame is growing. “This chaos with the allocation of vaccine appointments is absolutely unworthy of a high-tech nation like Germany,” said Achim Berg, head of Bitkom, a digital lobby group."
https://www.ft.com/content/33f8ffd6-066b-449c-bf7e-edd51d661b190 -
I'm so old I remember when people mocked David Cameron and Remain for engaging in Project Fear when they warned Brexit risked the peace process.Scott_xP said:
2 -
My colleague has compared it to the 2007 budget when Brown abolished the 10p rate, it took everyone a year to realise the brilliant policy was in fact a great steaming turd.MaxPB said:
Yup, it's the same conclusion we've come to as well. I think by the weekend the budget is going to look a lot less good. The corporation tax rise especially should be seized by Labour as jobs and investment killing. I'm honestly shocked the chancellor doesn't have the political foresight to see just how badly job losses are going to play in the run up to 2024.TheScreamingEagles said:
Our economists and financial modellers have been working on this, the government's plans are what we call a 'Katie Price's boobs.'MaxPB said:
I don't see that they'll have a choice once the rest of the developed world starts picking at the carcass of the UK economy in 2023 when big businesses desert for lower tax countries.eek said:
WTF else are the Tories going to do? Tell the Red Wall seats (which they need) to get on their bikes and find work.contrarian said:Allister Heath reckons the tories have trashed Thatcherism and embraced the European politics of decline.
Yep.
The 25% rate is worse than anything I had imagined. Unless the 100% investment allowance is made permanent then it's going to result in significant job losses, even the OBR have forecast a huge slowdown in business investment in 2023 to a contraction of -1.5%, it will mean job losses in the run up to an election.
It's genuinely rubbish and shows Rishi isn't fit for the office of chancellor.
A massive figure blown out of all proportion, with no visible means of support, and so fucking artificial.
The other area is business rates where there's basically fuck all in terms of a step change for high street retail having to compete with online.
0 -
That’s nothing. I’m old enough to remember a Foreign Secretary who claimed Northern Ireland was being shafted by Europe and he would resign on principle rather than abandon them.TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm so old I remember when people mocked David Cameron and Remain for engaging in Project Fear when they warned Brexit risked the peace process.Scott_xP said:0 -
This is not good news.kle4 said:
Hopefully that council is a group of ridiculous old farts listened to by no one, but, well, it's Northern Ireland.Scott_xP said:
A quick bit of rooting around reveals that this particular body was established in 2015 by a collection of former Loyalist paramilitary groups and was 'aimed at reversing the perceived "neglect" of loyalist working class communities.' Report here:
https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/loyalist-communities-council-launched-with-backing-of-uda-uvf-and-red-hand-commando-31606726.html0 -
This is another great steaming pile which will come back and haunt Sunak.
https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/13671653823148359740 -
Its problem is likely that its medium term finances are based on what may turn out to be very optimistic assumptions - a speedy return to ‘normal’ economics, a spending boom of lockdown savings, no significant damage from Brexit, no significant longer term behaviour changes post-pandemic.MaxPB said:Tbh, judging a budget on day 0 is always a bit of a poor idea. Let's wait until the weekend to see if it's still holding together. However, I will say the presentation of it was very good and the fiscal drag on personal taxation was pitched in a way that has taken the sting out of it. Reminiscent of Labour's NI rise to pay for the NHS despite NI not being hypothecated.
0 -
OK, it's Pesto, so make of this what you will, but there might be problems on the other side of the ledger as well;MaxPB said:
Yup, it's the same conclusion we've come to as well. I think by the weekend the budget is going to look a lot less good. The corporation tax rise especially should be seized by Labour as jobs and investment killing. I'm honestly shocked the chancellor doesn't have the political foresight to see just how badly job losses are going to play in the run up to 2024.TheScreamingEagles said:
Our economists and financial modellers have been working on this, the government's plans are what we call a 'Katie Price's boobs.'MaxPB said:
I don't see that they'll have a choice once the rest of the developed world starts picking at the carcass of the UK economy in 2023 when big businesses desert for lower tax countries.eek said:
WTF else are the Tories going to do? Tell the Red Wall seats (which they need) to get on their bikes and find work.contrarian said:Allister Heath reckons the tories have trashed Thatcherism and embraced the European politics of decline.
Yep.
The 25% rate is worse than anything I had imagined. Unless the 100% investment allowance is made permanent then it's going to result in significant job losses, even the OBR have forecast a huge slowdown in business investment in 2023 to a contraction of -1.5%, it will mean job losses in the run up to an election.
It's genuinely rubbish and shows Rishi isn't fit for the office of chancellor.
A massive figure blown out of all proportion, with no visible means of support, and so fucking artificial.
The other area is business rates where there's basically fuck all in terms of a step change for high street retail having to compete with online.
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1367189692266000389?s=20
So what is Rishi (who is many things, but not an idiot, which is unusual for this government) up to?0 -
Some things are unknowable.TheScreamingEagles said:This is another great steaming pile which will come back and haunt Sunak.
https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/13671653823148359741 -
No significant ramping up since late January, and if anything a downward trend in first vaccinations?Malmesbury said:UK vaccinations
0 -
Getting through the next 6 months, then figuring something out.Stuartinromford said:
OK, it's Pesto, so make of this what you will, but there might be problems on the other side of the ledger as well;MaxPB said:
Yup, it's the same conclusion we've come to as well. I think by the weekend the budget is going to look a lot less good. The corporation tax rise especially should be seized by Labour as jobs and investment killing. I'm honestly shocked the chancellor doesn't have the political foresight to see just how badly job losses are going to play in the run up to 2024.TheScreamingEagles said:
Our economists and financial modellers have been working on this, the government's plans are what we call a 'Katie Price's boobs.'MaxPB said:
I don't see that they'll have a choice once the rest of the developed world starts picking at the carcass of the UK economy in 2023 when big businesses desert for lower tax countries.eek said:
WTF else are the Tories going to do? Tell the Red Wall seats (which they need) to get on their bikes and find work.contrarian said:Allister Heath reckons the tories have trashed Thatcherism and embraced the European politics of decline.
Yep.
The 25% rate is worse than anything I had imagined. Unless the 100% investment allowance is made permanent then it's going to result in significant job losses, even the OBR have forecast a huge slowdown in business investment in 2023 to a contraction of -1.5%, it will mean job losses in the run up to an election.
It's genuinely rubbish and shows Rishi isn't fit for the office of chancellor.
A massive figure blown out of all proportion, with no visible means of support, and so fucking artificial.
The other area is business rates where there's basically fuck all in terms of a step change for high street retail having to compete with online.
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1367189692266000389?s=20
So what is Rishi (who is many things, but not an idiot, which is unusual for this government) up to?
Vaccinations aside, it's generally how it operates. For Boris, it has always worked.1 -
I used to walk past the petrol station that evening and wonder why the price hadn't gone up from the "6 o'clock tonight" duty rise.TheScreamingEagles said:Can relate, CAN SO RELATE.
https://twitter.com/AmroliwalaBBC/status/13672089098538434600 -
Oh dear what a shame, the blame game starting.
https://twitter.com/lesleyriddoch/status/1367211594007068679?s=211 -
This prediction is going to go the way of your 'the government will keep us in lockdown forever', isn't it?contrarian said:
I don;t think so.RobD said:
I'm confused why contrarian isn't happy about the budget. The deficit, which he has been going on about for months now, will be entirely gone in a few years.eek said:
WTF else are the Tories going to do? Tell the Red Wall seats (which they need) to get on their bikes and find work.contrarian said:Allister Heath reckons the tories have trashed Thatcherism and embraced the European politics of decline.
Yep.
The economy is not and will not be big enough to support the weight of debt and spending that has been piled on it now and in the future.
It simply won't yield enough revenues, no matter how high taxes are.0 -
Yeah, getting impatient for the increase in supply. We are promised a bumper March though.IanB2 said:
No significant ramping up since late January, and if anything a downward trend in first vaccinations?Malmesbury said:UK vaccinations
1 -
It is an absolute travesty than Yvette Cooper is not in the Shadow Cabinet.0
-
Jim Hacker, on being asked for a loan to save Aston Wanderers, was told it would give him a safe seat for life as a local hero.TheScreamingEagles said:This is another great steaming pile which will come back and haunt Sunak.
https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1367165382314835974
‘Yes,’ he mused. ‘That might strike the press, too. And the opposition. And the judge.’2 -
Have you visited Catterick? It's perfectly understandable if you havekle4 said:
Some things are unknowable.TheScreamingEagles said:This is another great steaming pile which will come back and haunt Sunak.
https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1367165382314835974
Equally 2019 was the high watermark for the Tories. Every seat they need to win was won then so it's not surprising that those seats are getting the spoils.0 -
HYUFD of this parish has airily dismissed the concerns of nonn-Tory voters. All this has done is handed out rewards to Tory voters and frankly its not a surprise. My old manor of Thornaby-on-Tees has been given £23m - whilst it now having a Tory MP now helps it does need the cash. Suspect that many of the towns on the list are in a similar boat.TheScreamingEagles said:This is another great steaming pile which will come back and haunt Sunak.
https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/13671653823148359741 -
I agree with this.MaxPB said:
Yup, it's the same conclusion we've come to as well. I think by the weekend the budget is going to look a lot less good. The corporation tax rise especially should be seized by Labour as jobs and investment killing. I'm honestly shocked the chancellor doesn't have the political foresight to see just how badly job losses are going to play in the run up to 2024.TheScreamingEagles said:
Our economists and financial modellers have been working on this, the government's plans are what we call a 'Katie Price's boobs.'MaxPB said:
I don't see that they'll have a choice once the rest of the developed world starts picking at the carcass of the UK economy in 2023 when big businesses desert for lower tax countries.eek said:
WTF else are the Tories going to do? Tell the Red Wall seats (which they need) to get on their bikes and find work.contrarian said:Allister Heath reckons the tories have trashed Thatcherism and embraced the European politics of decline.
Yep.
The 25% rate is worse than anything I had imagined. Unless the 100% investment allowance is made permanent then it's going to result in significant job losses, even the OBR have forecast a huge slowdown in business investment in 2023 to a contraction of -1.5%, it will mean job losses in the run up to an election.
It's genuinely rubbish and shows Rishi isn't fit for the office of chancellor.
A massive figure blown out of all proportion, with no visible means of support, and so fucking artificial.
The other area is business rates where there's basically fuck all in terms of a step change for high street retail having to compete with online.
The key point is that we're supposed to be differentiating ourselves from the EU right now. This removes one of our areas of differentiation, and sends exactly the wrong message about being open for business.
(From a business perspective, this slightly increases the chance that we add engineering resource in Lisbon rather than London.)3 -
Pretty sure the rather silly named Richmond (Yorks) seat is already a safe seat for life.ydoethur said:
Jim Hacker, on being asked for a loan to save Aston Wanderers, was told it would give him a safe seat for life as a local hero.TheScreamingEagles said:This is another great steaming pile which will come back and haunt Sunak.
https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1367165382314835974
‘Yes,’ he mused. ‘That might strike the press, too. And the opposition. And the judge.’0 -
YOu may have noticed that lockdown goes on until June, furlough til October and the government itself does not think the economy will be back up to pre covid speed until summer 2022.RobD said:
The weight of debt? A significant chunk of that is QE, so it isn't really owed to anyone at all. As for spending being pilled on, that's not what the OBR forecasts suggest.contrarian said:
I don;t think so.RobD said:
I'm confused why contrarian isn't happy about the budget. The deficit, which he has been going on about for months now, will be entirely gone in a few years.eek said:
WTF else are the Tories going to do? Tell the Red Wall seats (which they need) to get on their bikes and find work.contrarian said:Allister Heath reckons the tories have trashed Thatcherism and embraced the European politics of decline.
Yep.
The economy is not and will not be big enough to support the weight of debt and spending that has been piled on it now and in the future.
It simply won't yield enough revenues, no matter how high taxes are.
How much extra are we borrowing between now and then on top of the 2.1tn we already owe? and at what rates FFS? US long rates are already rising.
We simply are not going to sustain this. Especially as Johnson had decreed that every pound of spending is sacred. We are going to fall short. Far short.0 -
Most English towns do now have Tory MPs. Strike out the big cities and there are very few Labour MPs left.kle4 said:
Some things are unknowable.TheScreamingEagles said:This is another great steaming pile which will come back and haunt Sunak.
https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/13671653823148359741 -
Probably - a lot of towns need help, and small to medium towns do generally appear to be Tory voting, or at least seats containing them are. There were previous grumblings about the last fund for towns being suspiciously targeted as well, but whether there was anything actually to that I don't know.RochdalePioneers said:
HYUFD of this parish has airily dismissed the concerns of nonn-Tory voters. All this has done is handed out rewards to Tory voters and frankly its not a surprise. My old manor of Thornaby-on-Tees has been given £23m - whilst it now having a Tory MP now helps it does need the cash. Suspect that many of the towns on the list are in a similar boat.TheScreamingEagles said:This is another great steaming pile which will come back and haunt Sunak.
https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/13671653823148359740 -
Relaxation starts before June, doesn't it, and furlough will only be for those companies that are compelled to cease operation. It isn't as if the scheme is going to be utilised by everyone, and then suddenly by no one.contrarian said:
YOu may have noticed that lockdown goes on until June, furlough til October and the government itself does not think the economy will be back up to pre covid speed until summer 2022.RobD said:
The weight of debt? A significant chunk of that is QE, so it isn't really owed to anyone at all. As for spending being pilled on, that's not what the OBR forecasts suggest.contrarian said:
I don;t think so.RobD said:
I'm confused why contrarian isn't happy about the budget. The deficit, which he has been going on about for months now, will be entirely gone in a few years.eek said:
WTF else are the Tories going to do? Tell the Red Wall seats (which they need) to get on their bikes and find work.contrarian said:Allister Heath reckons the tories have trashed Thatcherism and embraced the European politics of decline.
Yep.
The economy is not and will not be big enough to support the weight of debt and spending that has been piled on it now and in the future.
It simply won't yield enough revenues, no matter how high taxes are.
How much extra are we borrowing between now and then on top of the 2.1tn we already owe? and at what rates FFS? US long rates are already rising.
We simply are not going to sustain this. Especially as Johnson had decreed that every pound of spending is sacred. We are going to fall short. Far short.
As for sustaining it, no one is suggesting that will happen.0 -
Strange how Thornaby got the money yet Billingham didn't? Both towns are in Stockton.RochdalePioneers said:
HYUFD of this parish has airily dismissed the concerns of nonn-Tory voters. All this has done is handed out rewards to Tory voters and frankly its not a surprise. My old manor of Thornaby-on-Tees has been given £23m - whilst it now having a Tory MP now helps it does need the cash. Suspect that many of the towns on the list are in a similar boat.TheScreamingEagles said:This is another great steaming pile which will come back and haunt Sunak.
https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1367165382314835974
And Billingham is great for Brave new World and a 1960s shopping centre only a fan of the brutulist architecture would like0 -
We are still in lockdown. What is your guarantee we will be out in June? What is your guarantee there won;t be another lockdown?BluestBlue said:
This prediction is going to go the way of your 'the government will keep us in lockdown forever', isn't it?contrarian said:
I don;t think so.RobD said:
I'm confused why contrarian isn't happy about the budget. The deficit, which he has been going on about for months now, will be entirely gone in a few years.eek said:
WTF else are the Tories going to do? Tell the Red Wall seats (which they need) to get on their bikes and find work.contrarian said:Allister Heath reckons the tories have trashed Thatcherism and embraced the European politics of decline.
Yep.
The economy is not and will not be big enough to support the weight of debt and spending that has been piled on it now and in the future.
It simply won't yield enough revenues, no matter how high taxes are.0 -
The message to other red wall towns is:kle4 said:
Pretty sure the rather silly named Richmond (Yorks) seat is already a safe seat for life.ydoethur said:
Jim Hacker, on being asked for a loan to save Aston Wanderers, was told it would give him a safe seat for life as a local hero.TheScreamingEagles said:This is another great steaming pile which will come back and haunt Sunak.
https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1367165382314835974
‘Yes,’ he mused. ‘That might strike the press, too. And the opposition. And the judge.’
Vote Tory, get £1 billion.
Not exactly subtle but it may well work given so many of them are now marginal.
(Incidentally, what’s so silly about naming a seat after the main town in it?)3 -
If we can get 90+% uptake with the vaccine program it's less likely, vaccine refuseniks are the greatest potential source of eternal lockdown. So you'll have to blame them. Fortunately we should have excellent uptake.contrarian said:
We are still in lockdown. What is your guarantee we will be out in June? What is your guarantee there won;t be another lockdown?BluestBlue said:
This prediction is going to go the way of your 'the government will keep us in lockdown forever', isn't it?contrarian said:
I don;t think so.RobD said:
I'm confused why contrarian isn't happy about the budget. The deficit, which he has been going on about for months now, will be entirely gone in a few years.eek said:
WTF else are the Tories going to do? Tell the Red Wall seats (which they need) to get on their bikes and find work.contrarian said:Allister Heath reckons the tories have trashed Thatcherism and embraced the European politics of decline.
Yep.
The economy is not and will not be big enough to support the weight of debt and spending that has been piled on it now and in the future.
It simply won't yield enough revenues, no matter how high taxes are.2 -
The situation has developed not necessarily to our advantage.
https://twitter.com/gdog2010_john/status/1367188455650902017?s=210 -
Yes, it is pork barrelling in the grand old tradition.ydoethur said:
The message to other red wall towns is:kle4 said:
Pretty sure the rather silly named Richmond (Yorks) seat is already a safe seat for life.ydoethur said:
Jim Hacker, on being asked for a loan to save Aston Wanderers, was told it would give him a safe seat for life as a local hero.TheScreamingEagles said:This is another great steaming pile which will come back and haunt Sunak.
https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1367165382314835974
‘Yes,’ he mused. ‘That might strike the press, too. And the opposition. And the judge.’
Vote Tory, get £1 billion.
Not exactly subtle but it may well work given so many of them are now marginal.
(Incidentally, what’s so silly about naming a seat after the main town in it?)
Bread and circuses. Bread and circuses. That is all.1 -
Did Billingham apply?eek said:
Strange how Thornaby got the money yet Billingham didn't? Both towns are in Stockton.RochdalePioneers said:
HYUFD of this parish has airily dismissed the concerns of nonn-Tory voters. All this has done is handed out rewards to Tory voters and frankly its not a surprise. My old manor of Thornaby-on-Tees has been given £23m - whilst it now having a Tory MP now helps it does need the cash. Suspect that many of the towns on the list are in a similar boat.TheScreamingEagles said:This is another great steaming pile which will come back and haunt Sunak.
https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1367165382314835974
And Billingham is great for Brave new World and a 1960s shopping centre only a fan of the brutulist architecture would like0
