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Stopping the SNP juggernaut – what are the chances for Scotland’s opposition parties? – politicalbet
Stopping the SNP juggernaut – what are the chances for Scotland’s opposition parties? – politicalbetting.com
With two months to go until the Holyrood elections, Ipsos MORI’s latest Scotland poll yet again finds the SNP ahead on voting intention – 52% of likely voters are minded to vote SNP for their constituency, and 47% say they will vote for them on their regional list. Both the Conservatives (on 23% constituency, 22% list) and Labour (15%/14%) continue to trail well behind. But as the well worn saying goes, a week is a long-time in politics. The SNP, down six points on constituency vote since Ipsos MORI’s October 2020 poll, may have felt the truth of that particularly acutely this week, with the Salmond inquiry dominating many headlines. Given evidence that SNP support may be slipping back (albeit from an incredibly high start), what prospects are there for Scotland’s largest opposition parties to make further inroads before 6 May? Ipsos MORI’s latest data provides useful clues.
Comments
Not looking like Scotland is coming to Starmer's aid.
"It's a terrrrrrrrible Knight......"
High takeup here ?
In case you have found some of those aircraft engine diagrams and charts hard to read, this is a link to enlarged versions.
https://www.calum-douglas.com/the-secret-horsepower-race-image-archive/
The main opposition parties seem to have realised this to an extent, and you see a lot of things like Douglas Ross saying that his 'demands' for Sunak's budget have all been met (as opposed to just cheerleading for the budget), however, it lacks credibility.
There is a new party that actually fits this model - Alliance for Unity, George Galloway's latest project, but at the moment they are not using their unique set up as a Scottish Unionist Party as a selling point, and they probably won't field candidates for Westminster, where this type of party would make the most sense.
I think this shows just how crucial the role of Anas Sarwar will be over the next 8 weeks.
I see their ceiling as around 30%
He must have been seething today. Sturgeon denounced him many times, and essentially labelled him as guilty. Despite his being acquitted of all charges.
He will want blood. Again
With sour cream, grated cheese, salsa and guacamole.
Yum.
Bullying allegations against Duchess of Sussex
Fundamentally she thinks that palace servants are “servants” in the way that Hollywood A listers - like she believes she is - abuse their staff. She doesn’t understand the more nuanced relationships the UK royals have with them
However, I granted our guest authors the courtesy of reading their piece in full, anyway.
The legacy UK parties are probably* permafucked and the SNP is probably* going to romp to yet another victory.
*By probably I mean certainly, of course. The Conservatives and Labour don't merely have 'a lot of work to do in the next two months' to make significant progress. They need to build, test and commission a mind-control field generator that can successfully reprogram the brains of the entire population. Not even the Chinese have figured out how to make that happen.
It seemed to me to be saying that all three parties were likely to do badly. Would be great if true, but not entirely sure how that can be.
It must be a status thing in the USA, because it sure enough isn't decent, or effective.
These things do change
I just don't want to have it every day.
If they had wouldn’t they programme you to believe (a) they hadn’t and (b) you were living in a western democracy rather than under the iron fist of the Chinese jackboot
The Unionists did the best in Scotland when they were a distinctly Scottish party, and I think SCons and SLabour are both limited whilst they are wholly owned subsidiaries of the UK versions.
Is it free on demand? Not sure how else it could work but nothing medical is free there in my experience so I am guessing that somehow it is run through insurance. Anybody know?
Americans: "The boss has said X - jump to it!"
Brits: "Oh feck, what's the old fool said now?"
I had no idea, for instance, how important different fuels were.
#Salmondthebestpmweneverhad
In any event, regardless of their place in the hierarchy, all team members deserve to be treated with courtesy
Interesting Budget - the question is whether the rebound in economic activity is as strong as Sunak and the BoE believe and the impacts that will have on inflation and interest rates.
Some on here witter on about the parallels with the "roaring twenties" - one more dubious parallel was hyperinflation in the early 20s as economic activity recovered from the war. The 1920s weren't just flappers and the Charleston - they were the decade of wheeling wheelbarrows of cash round to buy food. I suppose the equivalent now would be to raise the contactless card limit to £10 million so we can all go to the supermarket.
There's no scope to cut taxes or to raise them and while I imagine Sunak might be hoping growth and inflation will help with both debt and deficit, he will need to see significant reductions to the latter as we continue to have to spend a not insignificant proportion of our budget servicing the former.
I rarely comment on matters Royal but the orchestrated character assassination of the Duchess of Sussex has been a wonder to behold. However bad it might have been for Jeremy Corbyn, it's been worse for Meghan. Last weekend, the interview with her and Harry was excoriated for being done while Prince Philip was in hospital. Today, she's an unapologetic bully (well, supposedly the Home Secretary might be one as well and she seems popular with a number here) which you can believe or not but it's clearly designed to repel her with the British public.
I comment on matters Scottish even less frequently and I'm not changing that tonight.
Whistle through your teeth and spit 'cause it's alright
Oh well a touch of grey kinda suits you anyway
And that was all I had to say and it's alright
Grateful Dead
Anecdotally, my in laws in CT mentioned to me yesterday that a lot of people are waiting for the J&J vaccine to save themselves the hassle of having to come back for a second shot. TBF that crossed my mind.
I don't doubt that there are Scots who still feel British but they're a minority and, I think you'll find, a shrinking one at that - something that will be brutally laid bare by the results of this year's census, when I expect that the ratio of British to English/Scottish/Welsh/(Northern) Irish identification will have changed markedly all over the UK since 2011.
The only thing that's holding the Union together now is money. If the average Scottish voter thought that she would be £1 per year better off out than in, she'd be off like a shot.
A thread with a A Question To Which Answer Is None.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/mar/02/meghan-asks-for-front-page-apology-and-750000-costs-from-mail-on-sunday
Like Harry you're always in service Charles.
It is no means certain that Scotland will vote for independence
How did that happen?
I think Sturgeon was well aware of Salmond's inappropriate behaviour long before she became First Minister. She feels so bitter because she is compromised by the fact that she had to stay silent on his behalf. She was forced to betray her beliefs and convictions. Though she could not act while Salmond was so powerful, she could when she became FM. She knows that Salmond is guilty, she repeated it again today. She is so emotionally committed to convicting Salmond that she has been caught out in lies, and possibly worse.
And Salmond feels bitter because he believes he has been stabbed in the back by his former protege. He believes that his misdemeanours were minor -- maybe he now accepts they were inappropriate, but they were minor -- and by exposing his weaknesses, she has reduced him to a rather ridiculous, lecherous figure & she has damaged the cause of independence. She has betrayed him.
The ferocity with which they attack each other speaks of terrible personal guilt and betrayal.
Looking at the letter, I have to say (and I just wonder if this could be part of the problem), there's no advice on the front about how to get a vaccination beyond the NHS website. I could imagine some individuals finding it confusing, not looking at the back and throwing it in the bin.
There's an in-built presumption to Internet access and as a Councillor once said to me at a meeting - "we aren't all wired up, you know".
I AM NOTHING LIKE HARRY!!!!
it will be pistols at dawn next time you suggest otherwise
eg Magnus Linklater, no Nationalist, thinks Sturgeon did pretty well today, though she left questions unanswered
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/nicola-sturgeons-robust-performance-before-the-inquiry-ensures-her-political-survival-n820qc80n
I struggle to believe we watched the same hearing. She did not do ‘well’ - to my mind. I saw the whole shebang, all 8 hours (tragically) and I made a determined effort to be neutral. Why lie to yourself?
She hummed and hawed, she told obvious untruths (see below), she looked more rattled than I’ve ever seen before, she got confused, she attacked Salmond way too much, and she admitted that some crucial parts of her OWN evidence were implausible - yet she could not explain why we should still believe her. And she was reduced to near tears.
In her favour, she endured. 8 hours would trouble anyone. Bailie was a formidable interrogator, but Sturgeon survived. There was no knockout blow.
But ‘did well’? No way. 6/10 at best
However I am forced to confront the fact that, as I am a Unionist, it is impossible for me to be neutral, and my unconscious bias will always show. And that’s true of everyone - no one can be TRULY neutral. Which is a bit depressing
Or Magnus Linklater is talking bollox. Also possible
The UK case rate has declined from 94.9 per 100k yesterday to 89.2 per 100k today. Deaths are down by a full third week-on-week.
The case map shows the same collection of stubborn hotspots so I don't think it's been revised today.
As for confusion, isn't the website where you book the vaccination? Hard to give more information in the letter since it depends on where and when you select when you make the booking yourself. If it was really confusing we'd be seeing lower takeup everywhere.
I always liked the story of how they emptied the liquid oxygen from from the torpedos. After the war, the Americans were trying to find out their secret. It was a very, very dangerous process.
It turned out that the Japanese methodology consisted of -
- drag the torpedo up onto a remote beach.
- the most junior torpedo man available
- a spanner
- distance
Budget: Even on reflection I think Sunak has got away with his smash and grab.
Sturgeon: I think she's gotten away too. There remains a nasty stink over the political arrangements, but that can be sorted out. Better that it is now anyway. Although I hate the idea of Scottish independence (not my call though), I hate the idea of a really bad version of it far more. (That does not mean in the slightest that the Scots don't get a great big chunk of our shared debt though)
This has been an interesting day! (Thank god!)
There is reference to Bristol's high altitude supercharged single row Pegasus engine which powered the Type 138 monoplane. As you mention, there may be an oversight about Bristol's slow response to develop supercharging for the following generations of two row radial engines. It might be a factor which led to Fedden's enforced retirement.
I take it nothing exciting happened in politics today as I haven’t heard anyone resigned?
Very eloquent, highly plausible
The problem is that the book jumps around. There is a summation for some of the engines and manufacturers, but not all.
Using the website is simple and I have no complaints whatsoever about that process.
However, not everyone has a computer or uses the Internet. There is nothing on the front page of the letter to tell someone who doesn't use a computer or the Internet how to book a vaccination - it's all on the reverse and I just wonder how many will bother.
I also got the census letter today - I wonder what the take-up on that will be?
The Achilles' heel of the independence movement is, as I said before, money. If a large part of the Scottish electorate didn't believe that separation would put their taxes up then they'd have voted to go in 2014. And it could yet do for the nationalists again - although quite why the maintenance of a state that's held together mainly by bribery is something that is either morally healthy or to be desired is never adequately explained.
OTOH 'you will be poorer if you do this' was the central theme of David Cameron's campaign to vanquish Brexit, and look what became of him.
https://twitter.com/MikeStuchbery_/status/1367198574715543552?s=20
“The system’s a piece of shit,” said one German health official in a state that had embraced the platform. He said he and his colleagues “want to shoot ourselves it’s so bad. I can’t believe we chained ourselves to this.”
The official said that for months the website was only able to give users one appointment — although two are needed for a full inoculation — and does not allow them to go on a waiting list to be notified when more vaccine doses become available. “It’s totally amateurish and incredibly inflexible,” he said.
The sense of shame is growing. “This chaos with the allocation of vaccine appointments is absolutely unworthy of a high-tech nation like Germany,” said Achim Berg, head of Bitkom, a digital lobby group."
https://www.ft.com/content/33f8ffd6-066b-449c-bf7e-edd51d661b19