Labour needs a leader who would cut through the self congratulatory bullsh8t and ask the party why it took a pandemic to reveal what was going on in the sweatshops of Leicester and not their party.
Ask why the party was silent as prolonged school closures saw the gap between middle and working class kids widen to a chasm.
These are the abuses that actually spawned the labour movement, after all. Fighting them was the reason labour came into being.
If they aren't going to fight them, then what is the point? they are heading for extinction.
Almost all my extended family in the grim council estates of South Wales ended up with COVID -- this is very different from my friends in academia, none of whom have had it. (Fortunately, all my relatives made a good recovery & even my seriously overweight uncle in Caerffili seems to be OK, recovering slowly.)
But, this is a disease that has attacked the poor.
My guess is Jeremy Corbyn would have been much, much better at articulating this fundamental fact than Sir Union Jack. Also Lisa Nandy, Angela Rayner, Rebecca Long Bailey and even (tho' I heartily dislike her) Jess Philips would have done this better.
Labour have made the wrong choice.
With Gordon B, it was obvious Labour made the wrong choice almost immediately, but they persevered with the car crash.
With Ed M, it was obvious Labour made the wrong choice almost immediately, but they persevered with the car crash.
Someone needs to hand SKS the whisky & the loaded revolver, sharpish. Because, he is not nimble enough to defeat either Boris or Nicola.
There are plenty of Jacinta Arderns in the Parliamentary Labour Party.
I agree with everything but the last line. There 'might' be some, but I don't see plenty tbh (or indeed in any party).
Yep, interesting question - who?
Nandy, perhaps? No one else jumps into my mind. I don't claim to be well versed on the Labour PLP outside the shadow cabinet (and not all of them!) and the former possibles such as Cooper, Benn or outside the PLP Khan or Burnham (none of those fit the bill, I think).
What's with the discrepancy between EU EUR 1B and #TeamEurope EUR 2.2B? Is the rest other non-Eu contributions by EU countries? Or geographical - are we in #TeamEurope?
I'm not entirely sure how all these contributions break down - and the virtual G7 meeting is ongoing today, so I'd hope to see further commitments, as they are very much needed. But the US signing up as a contributor yesterday has made a big difference.
Labour needs a leader who would cut through the self congratulatory bullsh8t and ask the party why it took a pandemic to reveal what was going on in the sweatshops of Leicester and not their party.
Ask why the party was silent as prolonged school closures saw the gap between middle and working class kids widen to a chasm.
These are the abuses that actually spawned the labour movement, after all. Fighting them was the reason labour came into being.
If they aren't going to fight them, then what is the point? they are heading for extinction.
Almost all my extended family in the grim council estates of South Wales ended up with COVID -- this is very different from my friends in academia, none of whom have had it. (Fortunately, all my relatives made a good recovery & even my seriously overweight uncle in Caerffili seems to be OK, recovering slowly.)
But, this is a disease that has attacked the poor.
My guess is Jeremy Corbyn would have been much, much better at articulating this fundamental fact than Sir Union Jack. Also Lisa Nandy, Angela Rayner, Rebecca Long Bailey and even (tho' I heartily dislike her) Jess Philips would have done this better.
Labour have made the wrong choice.
With Gordon B, it was obvious Labour made the wrong choice almost immediately, but they persevered with the car crash.
With Ed M, it was obvious Labour made the wrong choice almost immediately, but they persevered with the car crash.
Someone needs to hand SKS the whisky & the loaded revolver, sharpish. Because, he is not nimble enough to defeat either Boris or Nicola.
There are plenty of Jacinta Arderns in the Parliamentary Labour Party.
I agree with everything but the last line. There 'might' be some, but I don't see plenty tbh (or indeed in any party).
As this pedanticbetting.com I feel duty bound to point out that there aren't even any Jacinta Arderns in the New Zealand Labour Party.
Dr John (An advocate of Vit D) has sent a good portion of his loopier antivax followers absolutely mental in the comments with him going through the facts of post vaccination deaths
Is pattern not just because the prevalence is falling in the countries doing the most testing?
Deaths appear to be following the same pattern.
Hmm. I suppose the same applies to some extent, but it is harder to hide lots of deaths.
Is there any data available on the number of people across the world in some kind of formal lockdown vs date?
I haven't dug that deep. Seasonality, to me, seems extremely unlikely as South Africa, in its eummer, scary variant and everything, has also been following this trend. And what I find truly spooky is that SA peaked on 13 January, almost the same day as the UK and the US. That's possibly a post-Christmas effect but doesn't account for the sustaned call thereafter.
They unlocked a while back didn't they? No sign yet of an effect looking at that graph at least.
No they didn't. They made some tweaks, relaxing some particular draconian restrictions such as an alcohol selling ban that we never had in the first place.
Can we stop with this wishful thinking please that the virus will just somehow magically disappear? It's vaccines and social distancing that will defeat it. And hopefully just the vaccines will be enough in a few months.
Dr John (An advocate of Vit D) has sent a good portion of his loopier antivax followers absolutely mental in the comments with him going through the facts of post vaccination deaths
I am not sure where you're getting the 'advocate of vitamin D' lingo from. Vitamin D is universally recognised as an essential hormone for human health. Being an 'advocate' of vitamin D would suggest that there is some opposing view that has any validity.
It's taken them long enough, they still need to do more to match the US and the UK for per capita funding though. I think €3.5bn is what they need to be looking at. Good on Germany for going in big with that €900m donation. Very good news for the world.
It's a start, and a very encouraging one. There may be something of a snowball effect now. And it makes a big difference that actual vaccines of known effectiveness, and associated manufacturing capacity are there to be funded.
The bigger issue is that Google, Facebook et al are too dominant. They should be regulated as utilities, as that is effectively what they are, with capped returns and tough restrictions on what they can do with people’s data.
If Zuckerberg gets poorer as a result I don’t really care.
What are the barriers to entry of search engines or social media sites?
Not many AFAICS.
So there is no monopoly apart from a commercially successful one.
Why should that be regulated. What would you do? Make everyone unfriend half their contacts? Go to Yahoo Search?
Social media no, hence why Parler went from zero to quite big in no time, unless you piss off AWS.... search engine, that's a totally different animal, you need maasive resources to even start to be able to crawl the internet.
My laptop constantly tried to force me onto Yahoo search instead of google drove me absolutely bonkers.
Since we're (kind of) on search engines and the like, Bing maps is actually surprisingly good in some ways. Not the streetview coverage of Google, but often better satellite imagery (from HERE?) and OS mapping built in too. Use it a lot when looking up holiday cottages and also at present for possible house moves - checking out footpaths nearby etc. Also has a measurement tool that directly lets you measure areas in addition to lengths, useful for comparing gardens, particularly when they're not simple shapes.
I say this as a fully paid up Linux-using Microsoft hater
Got to say I detest Bing as a search engine. It never shows the range and accuracy of results that I get from Google and, although it is installed as the default search engine with Edge, I almost always give up and go to Google instead. It happened last night when I was researching for this article. I would love an alternative to Google but Bing just isn't it at the moment.
Yep, only praising (some of the features of) maps. The search is not that good.
Labour needs a leader who would cut through the self congratulatory bullsh8t and ask the party why it took a pandemic to reveal what was going on in the sweatshops of Leicester and not their party.
Ask why the party was silent as prolonged school closures saw the gap between middle and working class kids widen to a chasm.
These are the abuses that actually spawned the labour movement, after all. Fighting them was the reason labour came into being.
If they aren't going to fight them, then what is the point? they are heading for extinction.
Almost all my extended family in the grim council estates of South Wales ended up with COVID -- this is very different from my friends in academia, none of whom have had it. (Fortunately, all my relatives made a good recovery & even my seriously overweight uncle in Caerffili seems to be OK, recovering slowly.)
But, this is a disease that has attacked the poor.
My guess is Jeremy Corbyn would have been much, much better at articulating this fundamental fact than Sir Union Jack. Also Lisa Nandy, Angela Rayner, Rebecca Long Bailey and even (tho' I heartily dislike her) Jess Philips would have done this better.
Labour have made the wrong choice.
With Gordon B, it was obvious Labour made the wrong choice almost immediately, but they persevered with the car crash.
With Ed M, it was obvious Labour made the wrong choice almost immediately, but they persevered with the car crash.
Someone needs to hand SKS the whisky & the loaded revolver, sharpish. Because, he is not nimble enough to defeat either Boris or Nicola.
There are plenty of Jacinta Arderns in the Parliamentary Labour Party.
Is pattern not just because the prevalence is falling in the countries doing the most testing?
Deaths appear to be following the same pattern.
Hmm. I suppose the same applies to some extent, but it is harder to hide lots of deaths.
Is there any data available on the number of people across the world in some kind of formal lockdown vs date?
I haven't dug that deep. Seasonality, to me, seems extremely unlikely as South Africa, in its eummer, scary variant and everything, has also been following this trend. And what I find truly spooky is that SA peaked on 13 January, almost the same day as the UK and the US. That's possibly a post-Christmas effect but doesn't account for the sustaned call thereafter.
They unlocked a while back didn't they? No sign yet of an effect looking at that graph at least.
No they didn't. They made some tweaks, relaxing some particular draconian restrictions such as an alcohol selling ban that we never had in the first place.
Can we stop with this wishful thinking please that the virus will just somehow magically disappear? It's vaccines and social distancing that will defeat it. And hopefully just the vaccines will be enough in a few months.
How did Spanish Flu magically disappear?
Genuine herd immunity (the kind we could have got with no lockdown, and 500,000+ dead...)
Is pattern not just because the prevalence is falling in the countries doing the most testing?
Deaths appear to be following the same pattern.
Hmm. I suppose the same applies to some extent, but it is harder to hide lots of deaths.
Is there any data available on the number of people across the world in some kind of formal lockdown vs date?
I haven't dug that deep. Seasonality, to me, seems extremely unlikely as South Africa, in its eummer, scary variant and everything, has also been following this trend. And what I find truly spooky is that SA peaked on 13 January, almost the same day as the UK and the US. That's possibly a post-Christmas effect but doesn't account for the sustaned call thereafter.
They unlocked a while back didn't they? No sign yet of an effect looking at that graph at least.
No they didn't. They made some tweaks, relaxing some particular draconian restrictions such as an alcohol selling ban that we never had in the first place.
Can we stop with this wishful thinking please that the virus will just somehow magically disappear? It's vaccines and social distancing that will defeat it. And hopefully just the vaccines will be enough in a few months.
How did Spanish Flu magically disappear?
It ran through enough people to build up herd immunity and killed 50 million along the way. Yes, we could have taken that approach. I prefer the vaccines.
Hardly news. I love an overnight count, but for locals we've been told for months the plan is to spread it out over 4 days (verification, unitary, parish, PCC).
I worry though that it may be the end of overnight counting, the spectacle of it, as I don't think many did it for the first PCCs anyway, and loads of election officials don't like doing it.
Apart from making PB followers stay up all night, are there any reasons why votes are traditionally counted overnight?
Its usual in most countries to count the votes as soon as voting ends. The difference in the UK is that we dont finish voting until 10pm which is much later than most places.
The reason is surely that it leaves the vote far more open to tampering than it would otherwise be. In Scotland, I'd say this has every chance of becoming an issue - even if its just a controversy in peoples' minds. The stakes are very high for the SNP this time round, and some of their tactics leading up to this election (eg the postal voting website) are a little near the knuckle. Opposingly, if the SNP do unexpectedly badly, the overnight delay will be seen as enabling MI6 to steal the vote and prevent independence.
Anything that weakens the integrity of the vote in any way is to be totally avoided.
Obviously a connection has been found between Covid-19 and not conducting night counts, although I cant think what it might be, except if you want to avoid people being tired out for a short time.
Is pattern not just because the prevalence is falling in the countries doing the most testing?
Deaths appear to be following the same pattern.
Hmm. I suppose the same applies to some extent, but it is harder to hide lots of deaths.
Is there any data available on the number of people across the world in some kind of formal lockdown vs date?
I haven't dug that deep. Seasonality, to me, seems extremely unlikely as South Africa, in its eummer, scary variant and everything, has also been following this trend. And what I find truly spooky is that SA peaked on 13 January, almost the same day as the UK and the US. That's possibly a post-Christmas effect but doesn't account for the sustaned call thereafter.
They unlocked a while back didn't they? No sign yet of an effect looking at that graph at least.
No they didn't. They made some tweaks, relaxing some particular draconian restrictions such as an alcohol selling ban that we never had in the first place.
Can we stop with this wishful thinking please that the virus will just somehow magically disappear? It's vaccines and social distancing that will defeat it. And hopefully just the vaccines will be enough in a few months.
Not wishful thinking, just asking a question.
By the way, categorising the reopening of businesses, the allowing of small family gatherings and domestic travel as 'some tweaks' is stretching a point somewhat. They are pretty significant easements.
Is pattern not just because the prevalence is falling in the countries doing the most testing?
Deaths appear to be following the same pattern.
Hmm. I suppose the same applies to some extent, but it is harder to hide lots of deaths.
Is there any data available on the number of people across the world in some kind of formal lockdown vs date?
I haven't dug that deep. Seasonality, to me, seems extremely unlikely as South Africa, in its eummer, scary variant and everything, has also been following this trend. And what I find truly spooky is that SA peaked on 13 January, almost the same day as the UK and the US. That's possibly a post-Christmas effect but doesn't account for the sustaned call thereafter.
They unlocked a while back didn't they? No sign yet of an effect looking at that graph at least.
No they didn't. They made some tweaks, relaxing some particular draconian restrictions such as an alcohol selling ban that we never had in the first place.
Can we stop with this wishful thinking please that the virus will just somehow magically disappear? It's vaccines and social distancing that will defeat it. And hopefully just the vaccines will be enough in a few months.
How did Spanish Flu magically disappear?
It ran through enough people to build up herd immunity and killed 50 million along the way. Yes, we could have taken that approach. I prefer the vaccines.
Interesting counterfactual as to how deadly Covid would have been if it had happened in 1919.
My guess is it would have been far worse than Spanish flu.
Is pattern not just because the prevalence is falling in the countries doing the most testing?
Deaths appear to be following the same pattern.
Hmm. I suppose the same applies to some extent, but it is harder to hide lots of deaths.
Is there any data available on the number of people across the world in some kind of formal lockdown vs date?
I haven't dug that deep. Seasonality, to me, seems extremely unlikely as South Africa, in its eummer, scary variant and everything, has also been following this trend. And what I find truly spooky is that SA peaked on 13 January, almost the same day as the UK and the US. That's possibly a post-Christmas effect but doesn't account for the sustaned call thereafter.
They unlocked a while back didn't they? No sign yet of an effect looking at that graph at least.
No they didn't. They made some tweaks, relaxing some particular draconian restrictions such as an alcohol selling ban that we never had in the first place.
Can we stop with this wishful thinking please that the virus will just somehow magically disappear? It's vaccines and social distancing that will defeat it. And hopefully just the vaccines will be enough in a few months.
There is, I know, a tendancy on the web to magical thinking and apologies if my posts tended to suggest that the virus would "disappear". There is, however, a remarkable synchronicity in falls in a number of quite diverse places.
It's taken them long enough, they still need to do more to match the US and the UK for per capita funding though. I think €3.5bn is what they need to be looking at. Good on Germany for going in big with that €900m donation. Very good news for the world.
It's a start, and a very encouraging one. There may be something of a snowball effect now. And it makes a big difference that actual vaccines of known effectiveness, and associated manufacturing capacity are there to be funded.
Yes, this plus the Novavax deal with CEPI is a game changer IMO. Biden is already improving the world. Really we should be trying to bring Russia and China into the alliance even if it means having Sputnik V or Sinovac in there as part of the available options.
We all live on the same planet and this is one of those situations where we all need to be on the same page. Having Ursula go rogue yesterday about Sputnik V was again very unhelpful. If the trial data checks out then there's no reason to discount it as a viable solution.
We need to desperately depoliticise vaccines. The EU has done a lot of damage already but hopefully this a signal that they will shut up and just get on with it.
It's taken them long enough, they still need to do more to match the US and the UK for per capita funding though. I think €3.5bn is what they need to be looking at. Good on Germany for going in big with that €900m donation. Very good news for the world.
Brexit Humanitarian Britain STILL shaming the EU....
Is pattern not just because the prevalence is falling in the countries doing the most testing?
Deaths appear to be following the same pattern.
Hmm. I suppose the same applies to some extent, but it is harder to hide lots of deaths.
Is there any data available on the number of people across the world in some kind of formal lockdown vs date?
I haven't dug that deep. Seasonality, to me, seems extremely unlikely as South Africa, in its eummer, scary variant and everything, has also been following this trend. And what I find truly spooky is that SA peaked on 13 January, almost the same day as the UK and the US. That's possibly a post-Christmas effect but doesn't account for the sustaned call thereafter.
They unlocked a while back didn't they? No sign yet of an effect looking at that graph at least.
No they didn't. They made some tweaks, relaxing some particular draconian restrictions such as an alcohol selling ban that we never had in the first place.
Can we stop with this wishful thinking please that the virus will just somehow magically disappear? It's vaccines and social distancing that will defeat it. And hopefully just the vaccines will be enough in a few months.
Is pattern not just because the prevalence is falling in the countries doing the most testing?
Deaths appear to be following the same pattern.
Hmm. I suppose the same applies to some extent, but it is harder to hide lots of deaths.
Is there any data available on the number of people across the world in some kind of formal lockdown vs date?
I haven't dug that deep. Seasonality, to me, seems extremely unlikely as South Africa, in its eummer, scary variant and everything, has also been following this trend. And what I find truly spooky is that SA peaked on 13 January, almost the same day as the UK and the US. That's possibly a post-Christmas effect but doesn't account for the sustaned call thereafter.
They unlocked a while back didn't they? No sign yet of an effect looking at that graph at least.
No they didn't. They made some tweaks, relaxing some particular draconian restrictions such as an alcohol selling ban that we never had in the first place.
Can we stop with this wishful thinking please that the virus will just somehow magically disappear? It's vaccines and social distancing that will defeat it. And hopefully just the vaccines will be enough in a few months.
How did Spanish Flu magically disappear?
It ran through enough people to build up herd immunity and killed 50 million along the way. Yes, we could have taken that approach. I prefer the vaccines.
Interesting counterfactual as to how deadly Covid would have been if it had happened in 1919.
My guess is it would have been far worse than Spanish flu.
A counter counter factual would be to point out that life expectancy in the UK in 1920 was 55 years for males and 59 years for females. In many parts of the world it was significantly lower. Given that the vast majority of deaths from C19 come from those over that age it may not have even been remarked upon. Spanish Flu tended to kill much younger people.
Is pattern not just because the prevalence is falling in the countries doing the most testing?
Deaths appear to be following the same pattern.
Hmm. I suppose the same applies to some extent, but it is harder to hide lots of deaths.
Is there any data available on the number of people across the world in some kind of formal lockdown vs date?
I haven't dug that deep. Seasonality, to me, seems extremely unlikely as South Africa, in its eummer, scary variant and everything, has also been following this trend. And what I find truly spooky is that SA peaked on 13 January, almost the same day as the UK and the US. That's possibly a post-Christmas effect but doesn't account for the sustaned call thereafter.
They unlocked a while back didn't they? No sign yet of an effect looking at that graph at least.
No they didn't. They made some tweaks, relaxing some particular draconian restrictions such as an alcohol selling ban that we never had in the first place.
Can we stop with this wishful thinking please that the virus will just somehow magically disappear? It's vaccines and social distancing that will defeat it. And hopefully just the vaccines will be enough in a few months.
How did Spanish Flu magically disappear?
It ran through enough people to build up herd immunity and killed 50 million along the way. Yes, we could have taken that approach. I prefer the vaccines.
Interesting counterfactual as to how deadly Covid would have been if it had happened in 1919.
My guess is it would have been far worse than Spanish flu.
Whereas (without analysing the numbers) I would instinctively said less bad - due to the age profile of the population.
Is pattern not just because the prevalence is falling in the countries doing the most testing?
Deaths appear to be following the same pattern.
Hmm. I suppose the same applies to some extent, but it is harder to hide lots of deaths.
Is there any data available on the number of people across the world in some kind of formal lockdown vs date?
I haven't dug that deep. Seasonality, to me, seems extremely unlikely as South Africa, in its eummer, scary variant and everything, has also been following this trend. And what I find truly spooky is that SA peaked on 13 January, almost the same day as the UK and the US. That's possibly a post-Christmas effect but doesn't account for the sustaned call thereafter.
They unlocked a while back didn't they? No sign yet of an effect looking at that graph at least.
No they didn't. They made some tweaks, relaxing some particular draconian restrictions such as an alcohol selling ban that we never had in the first place.
Can we stop with this wishful thinking please that the virus will just somehow magically disappear? It's vaccines and social distancing that will defeat it. And hopefully just the vaccines will be enough in a few months.
How did Spanish Flu magically disappear?
It ran through enough people to build up herd immunity and killed 50 million along the way. Yes, we could have taken that approach. I prefer the vaccines.
Interesting counterfactual as to how deadly Covid would have been if it had happened in 1919.
My guess is it would have been far worse than Spanish flu.
50% being asymptomatic would have been horrific in a world with very little testing. There would have been no rhyme nor reason to why people who had no contact with sick people were falling ill regardless.
Is pattern not just because the prevalence is falling in the countries doing the most testing?
Deaths appear to be following the same pattern.
Hmm. I suppose the same applies to some extent, but it is harder to hide lots of deaths.
Is there any data available on the number of people across the world in some kind of formal lockdown vs date?
I haven't dug that deep. Seasonality, to me, seems extremely unlikely as South Africa, in its eummer, scary variant and everything, has also been following this trend. And what I find truly spooky is that SA peaked on 13 January, almost the same day as the UK and the US. That's possibly a post-Christmas effect but doesn't account for the sustaned call thereafter.
They unlocked a while back didn't they? No sign yet of an effect looking at that graph at least.
No they didn't. They made some tweaks, relaxing some particular draconian restrictions such as an alcohol selling ban that we never had in the first place.
Can we stop with this wishful thinking please that the virus will just somehow magically disappear? It's vaccines and social distancing that will defeat it. And hopefully just the vaccines will be enough in a few months.
Bad start though many places had, which will have an impact, the optimists were right supply issues will be resolved pretty quickly. The US wasn't slow off the mark anyway, but if they are getting loads more by then, presumably so will most others who have ordered.
Is pattern not just because the prevalence is falling in the countries doing the most testing?
Deaths appear to be following the same pattern.
Hmm. I suppose the same applies to some extent, but it is harder to hide lots of deaths.
Is there any data available on the number of people across the world in some kind of formal lockdown vs date?
I haven't dug that deep. Seasonality, to me, seems extremely unlikely as South Africa, in its eummer, scary variant and everything, has also been following this trend. And what I find truly spooky is that SA peaked on 13 January, almost the same day as the UK and the US. That's possibly a post-Christmas effect but doesn't account for the sustaned call thereafter.
They unlocked a while back didn't they? No sign yet of an effect looking at that graph at least.
No they didn't. They made some tweaks, relaxing some particular draconian restrictions such as an alcohol selling ban that we never had in the first place.
Can we stop with this wishful thinking please that the virus will just somehow magically disappear? It's vaccines and social distancing that will defeat it. And hopefully just the vaccines will be enough in a few months.
How did Spanish Flu magically disappear?
It ran through enough people to build up herd immunity and killed 50 million along the way. Yes, we could have taken that approach. I prefer the vaccines.
Interesting counterfactual as to how deadly Covid would have been if it had happened in 1919.
My guess is it would have been far worse than Spanish flu.
A counter counter factual would be to point out that life expectancy in the UK in 1920 was 55 years for males and 59 years for females. In many parts of the world it was significantly lower. Given that the vast majority of deaths from C19 come from those over that age it may not have even been remarked upon. Spanish Flu tended to kill much younger people.
You are rather forgetting that in the U.K. and US one person in three had suffered from TB and therefore had extensive lung damage.
When does the government start to panic about the rise in Sterling? Over $1.40 now. Its not exactly going to assist with exporting our way out of a recession.
You might have thought that those headless headlines about the incredibly dramatic 0.1% increase in inflation could hardly look any sillier but they just might.
The sense check of the Budget should send it heading back down again.
Unless it turns out Trump was right and Biden is a frickin' idiot.....
Is pattern not just because the prevalence is falling in the countries doing the most testing?
Deaths appear to be following the same pattern.
Hmm. I suppose the same applies to some extent, but it is harder to hide lots of deaths.
Is there any data available on the number of people across the world in some kind of formal lockdown vs date?
I haven't dug that deep. Seasonality, to me, seems extremely unlikely as South Africa, in its eummer, scary variant and everything, has also been following this trend. And what I find truly spooky is that SA peaked on 13 January, almost the same day as the UK and the US. That's possibly a post-Christmas effect but doesn't account for the sustaned call thereafter.
They unlocked a while back didn't they? No sign yet of an effect looking at that graph at least.
No they didn't. They made some tweaks, relaxing some particular draconian restrictions such as an alcohol selling ban that we never had in the first place.
Can we stop with this wishful thinking please that the virus will just somehow magically disappear? It's vaccines and social distancing that will defeat it. And hopefully just the vaccines will be enough in a few months.
Not wishful thinking, just asking a question.
By the way, categorising the reopening of businesses, the allowing of small family gatherings and domestic travel as 'some tweaks' is stretching a point somewhat. They are pretty significant easements.
Fair enough, but it also isn't the end of lockdown. They're still in their "level 3", with a night-time curfew.
You'd expect the effects of the relaxing to start showing up in the numbers two weeks later, so still a bit too soon to see a trend.
Is pattern not just because the prevalence is falling in the countries doing the most testing?
Deaths appear to be following the same pattern.
Hmm. I suppose the same applies to some extent, but it is harder to hide lots of deaths.
Is there any data available on the number of people across the world in some kind of formal lockdown vs date?
I haven't dug that deep. Seasonality, to me, seems extremely unlikely as South Africa, in its eummer, scary variant and everything, has also been following this trend. And what I find truly spooky is that SA peaked on 13 January, almost the same day as the UK and the US. That's possibly a post-Christmas effect but doesn't account for the sustaned call thereafter.
They unlocked a while back didn't they? No sign yet of an effect looking at that graph at least.
No they didn't. They made some tweaks, relaxing some particular draconian restrictions such as an alcohol selling ban that we never had in the first place.
Can we stop with this wishful thinking please that the virus will just somehow magically disappear? It's vaccines and social distancing that will defeat it. And hopefully just the vaccines will be enough in a few months.
How did Spanish Flu magically disappear?
It ran through enough people to build up herd immunity and killed 50 million along the way. Yes, we could have taken that approach. I prefer the vaccines.
Interesting counterfactual as to how deadly Covid would have been if it had happened in 1919.
My guess is it would have been far worse than Spanish flu.
A counter counter factual would be to point out that life expectancy in the UK in 1920 was 55 years for males and 59 years for females. In many parts of the world it was significantly lower. Given that the vast majority of deaths from C19 come from those over that age it may not have even been remarked upon. Spanish Flu tended to kill much younger people.
You are rather forgetting that in the U.K. and US one person in three had suffered from TB and therefore had extensive lung damage.
Is pattern not just because the prevalence is falling in the countries doing the most testing?
Deaths appear to be following the same pattern.
Hmm. I suppose the same applies to some extent, but it is harder to hide lots of deaths.
Is there any data available on the number of people across the world in some kind of formal lockdown vs date?
I haven't dug that deep. Seasonality, to me, seems extremely unlikely as South Africa, in its eummer, scary variant and everything, has also been following this trend. And what I find truly spooky is that SA peaked on 13 January, almost the same day as the UK and the US. That's possibly a post-Christmas effect but doesn't account for the sustaned call thereafter.
They unlocked a while back didn't they? No sign yet of an effect looking at that graph at least.
No they didn't. They made some tweaks, relaxing some particular draconian restrictions such as an alcohol selling ban that we never had in the first place.
Can we stop with this wishful thinking please that the virus will just somehow magically disappear? It's vaccines and social distancing that will defeat it. And hopefully just the vaccines will be enough in a few months.
How did Spanish Flu magically disappear?
It ran through enough people to build up herd immunity and killed 50 million along the way. Yes, we could have taken that approach. I prefer the vaccines.
Interesting counterfactual as to how deadly Covid would have been if it had happened in 1919.
My guess is it would have been far worse than Spanish flu.
Might not have been, because life expectancy was a lot lower then anyway. The Spanish Flu killed far more of the young and healthy.
Is pattern not just because the prevalence is falling in the countries doing the most testing?
Deaths appear to be following the same pattern.
Hmm. I suppose the same applies to some extent, but it is harder to hide lots of deaths.
Is there any data available on the number of people across the world in some kind of formal lockdown vs date?
I haven't dug that deep. Seasonality, to me, seems extremely unlikely as South Africa, in its eummer, scary variant and everything, has also been following this trend. And what I find truly spooky is that SA peaked on 13 January, almost the same day as the UK and the US. That's possibly a post-Christmas effect but doesn't account for the sustaned call thereafter.
They unlocked a while back didn't they? No sign yet of an effect looking at that graph at least.
No they didn't. They made some tweaks, relaxing some particular draconian restrictions such as an alcohol selling ban that we never had in the first place.
Can we stop with this wishful thinking please that the virus will just somehow magically disappear? It's vaccines and social distancing that will defeat it. And hopefully just the vaccines will be enough in a few months.
How did Spanish Flu magically disappear?
Herd immunity.
I'm theorising that, although we are a long ways away from herd immunity globally, its also the case that there are vast sectors of the global economy that cannot hide away like the middle classeses, work remotely and get everything off Amazon. If the virus has reached a significant proportion of those exposed parts of the global economy by now then it will be having a far harder time finding people to infect.
England up 10K on last week. Scotland and Wales both down quite a bit on last week.
Drakeford in deep trouble.
From hero to zero, deity to dullard, in a single day.
There is no curve in that worldwide drop either. On current trends, it will have vanished off the planet in another 39 days.
Weird.
Covid may have mutated into a virus that disappears quickly. As far as I can see that is the most likely explanation.
I don't think that is the case. There are a number of possible explanations for the significant drop, NPIs, seasonality and a degree of population immunity. But it isn't going to just go away. That curve will flattern, it may even start going up again, but it isn't going to crash into the ground as zero at Easter. There's a teamof quant analysts at JP Morgan who have hypothesised as such but do you remember when they tried to do polling?
Is pattern not just because the prevalence is falling in the countries doing the most testing?
Deaths appear to be following the same pattern.
Hmm. I suppose the same applies to some extent, but it is harder to hide lots of deaths.
Is there any data available on the number of people across the world in some kind of formal lockdown vs date?
I haven't dug that deep. Seasonality, to me, seems extremely unlikely as South Africa, in its eummer, scary variant and everything, has also been following this trend. And what I find truly spooky is that SA peaked on 13 January, almost the same day as the UK and the US. That's possibly a post-Christmas effect but doesn't account for the sustaned call thereafter.
They unlocked a while back didn't they? No sign yet of an effect looking at that graph at least.
No they didn't. They made some tweaks, relaxing some particular draconian restrictions such as an alcohol selling ban that we never had in the first place.
Can we stop with this wishful thinking please that the virus will just somehow magically disappear? It's vaccines and social distancing that will defeat it. And hopefully just the vaccines will be enough in a few months.
How did Spanish Flu magically disappear?
It ran through enough people to build up herd immunity and killed 50 million along the way. Yes, we could have taken that approach. I prefer the vaccines.
Interesting counterfactual as to how deadly Covid would have been if it had happened in 1919.
My guess is it would have been far worse than Spanish flu.
Trudeau has a very Borisian 4-flag approach I see. He must be worried about something.
Macron and Merkel have gone for matching approached, one nation and one EU flag, in the same order over the same shoulder, emphasising EU unity. Lot of deadspace in Merkel's shot though, signifiying her time in office is coming to an end, whilst Macron keeps to the trappings of power in a fancy office shot, to show he is going nowhwere.
Draghi has rather slightly overshot the unity message, with 2 each of the EU flag and national, and got them the wrong way round to boot. But he's new in place, so may have missed the approved approach. The pot plant edging in is a none too subtle reminder to focus on Green issues.
Biden has the flags a bit close to him, making him look a bit hemmed in, under pressure. Combined with the traditional presidential seal halo effect he looks like he has giant bat wings and a crown - sinister indeed.
Suga (yes I had to look him up) has done for lone flag, either a sign of confidence or naivete compared to an old trooper like Trudeau. The slashed wall effect of the background makes it look like Godzilla has just attacked, but the flag, and Suga, are standing sttrong.
Ursula and the other one, meanwhile, have gone for a subtle approach, heavy on flags but minimised, and made sure the room itself is largely in EU themed colours. The empty space in the middle is not only to show how serious they are in dealing with pandemic issues, but an invitation to the people of the UK 'See, there is space for you as well, once we finish dealing with Boris'. Bold, but too obvious.
he also picks up on the fact that everyone being workers means the organisation being paid for the ride isn't a none VAT registered self employed driver but Uber itself (in which case VAT should be being paid on the entire bill).
That's going to be a chunky bill for Uber between, ENI, NI, PAYE and VAT plus claims for NMW and holiday pay. They won't even be able to offset any CT because they never seem to make a profit. Must be a real question mark as to whether they survive this.
As I said the other day when the discussion was on UBI, if a firm cannot operate on a model that pays its employees a living wage and pays all the taxes and other liabilities it is due to pay then it is not a viable business and should not be propped up by the taxpayer.
It is different if it is a business operating on a viable model that then gets into difficulties because of the economic climate or other issues. Then I see the benefit of at least considering tax payer support in the short term as is the current case with the pandemic relief. But either Uber is a viable business paying its employees and taxes or it is not. If it is not then it deserves to fail.
Absolutely. And the number of genuinely self employed small taxi firms and businesses that they have been able to destroy with this illegal business model is a disgrace. Its worse than Amazon (words I never thought I would type).
Governments must try harder to ensure that there is a genuinely level playing field between indigenous businesses and these multinational tech companies (which is getting dangerously near getting back on topic, nice piece by the way).
Yes. The Uber case and RT's fascinating article are closely linked. We don't yet know what to do with the internet in terms of global regulation, safety and protection, taxation, unfair competition, pricing and so on.
I suspect many of us support the best of both sides of RT's article. Firstly we support free speech, news dissemination, informed discussion and lively debate.
We also oppose hate speech, paedophile images, racism, the destruction of quality journalism, copyright and intellectual property theft, commercial monopolies of every sort and unfair competition.
We also like to get as much as possible free, but know that everything internetted has a cost to someone somewhere even if it is free to us.
The Australian move has an irrational look to it, and Facebook's response is rational. It is the beginning not the end of a saga that will run and run.
I am not 100% clear (possibly being dim) of the (non polemical) answers to these questions:
What is the problem that the Aussies are trying to solve? What is the evil that RT would like to avert? What is the best way of solving the Aussie problem while averting RT's evil?
Gosh, anyone feel free to correct me if I get this wrong but:
1. Because so many get their news via facebook they spend a lot more time on it than they do on news sites where they buzz in for the linked article and out again. This means Facebook pick up most of the advertising revenue.
2. RT is concerned that if Facebook have to pay a fee when someone on their site links to one of these articles it will become impossible for everyone else to make such links too. PB is a good example of a site that simply could not have links to anything commercial if it had to pay. This risks diminishing and devaluing the scope of debate on the internet with freedom of speech implications.
3. I think that this is the hardest. It seems to me that the only viable answer is paywalls if the news organisations cannot generate enough advertising revenue to cover their costs and make a profit. Not entirely sure what RT's position is.
Thanks. That's genuinely helpful - at least to me. Both the Aussie case and the RT case are absolutely sound. The Aussie's want to protect the producers of the readable journalistic material (broadly, but not quite, intellectual copyright) otherwise they go out of business, and the higher quality (Independent, FT) is under the greater threat than Sun/Star/Express because real journalism is expensive.
RT wants to reduce (metaphorical) non tariff barriers to material which the sources for commercial reasons (Guardian, Mail) put free in the public domain.
They are both right. But cannot both prevail. It is not remotely obvious which has to go; but if Facebook and co sweep the board financially then the producers won't be there any more.
Paywalls, for RT, cannot be the solution because they set up tariff barriers, which are even worse than non tariff barriers. The frictionless interchange of free stuff is the desired solution. It is perfectly possible that this cannot exist long term, any more than it did for Samuel Pepys or Charles Dickens.
Is pattern not just because the prevalence is falling in the countries doing the most testing?
Deaths appear to be following the same pattern.
Hmm. I suppose the same applies to some extent, but it is harder to hide lots of deaths.
Is there any data available on the number of people across the world in some kind of formal lockdown vs date?
I haven't dug that deep. Seasonality, to me, seems extremely unlikely as South Africa, in its eummer, scary variant and everything, has also been following this trend. And what I find truly spooky is that SA peaked on 13 January, almost the same day as the UK and the US. That's possibly a post-Christmas effect but doesn't account for the sustaned call thereafter.
They unlocked a while back didn't they? No sign yet of an effect looking at that graph at least.
No they didn't. They made some tweaks, relaxing some particular draconian restrictions such as an alcohol selling ban that we never had in the first place.
Can we stop with this wishful thinking please that the virus will just somehow magically disappear? It's vaccines and social distancing that will defeat it. And hopefully just the vaccines will be enough in a few months.
How did Spanish Flu magically disappear?
Herd immunity.
I'm theorising that, although we are a long ways away from herd immunity globally, its also the case that there are vast sectors of the global economy that cannot hide away like the middle classeses, work remotely and get everything off Amazon. If the virus has reached a significant proportion of those exposed parts of the global economy by now then it will be having a far harder time finding people to infect.
I think there's something in that, along with January just traditionally being a less sociable month than December, and of course governments such as ours increasing restrictions in reaction to the surge in cases.
Even with such partial herd immunity among the exposed though, if it wasn't for the vaccines, the epidemy would just reignite when the middle classes and pensioners emerge from their burrows.
Is pattern not just because the prevalence is falling in the countries doing the most testing?
Deaths appear to be following the same pattern.
Hmm. I suppose the same applies to some extent, but it is harder to hide lots of deaths.
Is there any data available on the number of people across the world in some kind of formal lockdown vs date?
I haven't dug that deep. Seasonality, to me, seems extremely unlikely as South Africa, in its eummer, scary variant and everything, has also been following this trend. And what I find truly spooky is that SA peaked on 13 January, almost the same day as the UK and the US. That's possibly a post-Christmas effect but doesn't account for the sustaned call thereafter.
They unlocked a while back didn't they? No sign yet of an effect looking at that graph at least.
No they didn't. They made some tweaks, relaxing some particular draconian restrictions such as an alcohol selling ban that we never had in the first place.
Can we stop with this wishful thinking please that the virus will just somehow magically disappear? It's vaccines and social distancing that will defeat it. And hopefully just the vaccines will be enough in a few months.
How did Spanish Flu magically disappear?
It ran through enough people to build up herd immunity and killed 50 million along the way. Yes, we could have taken that approach. I prefer the vaccines.
Interesting counterfactual as to how deadly Covid would have been if it had happened in 1919.
My guess is it would have been far worse than Spanish flu.
A counter counter factual would be to point out that life expectancy in the UK in 1920 was 55 years for males and 59 years for females. In many parts of the world it was significantly lower. Given that the vast majority of deaths from C19 come from those over that age it may not have even been remarked upon. Spanish Flu tended to kill much younger people.
Amazing increase in life expectancy in a century. If I'd been born back then I'd probably be dead now.
Is pattern not just because the prevalence is falling in the countries doing the most testing?
Deaths appear to be following the same pattern.
Hmm. I suppose the same applies to some extent, but it is harder to hide lots of deaths.
Is there any data available on the number of people across the world in some kind of formal lockdown vs date?
I haven't dug that deep. Seasonality, to me, seems extremely unlikely as South Africa, in its eummer, scary variant and everything, has also been following this trend. And what I find truly spooky is that SA peaked on 13 January, almost the same day as the UK and the US. That's possibly a post-Christmas effect but doesn't account for the sustaned call thereafter.
They unlocked a while back didn't they? No sign yet of an effect looking at that graph at least.
No they didn't. They made some tweaks, relaxing some particular draconian restrictions such as an alcohol selling ban that we never had in the first place.
Can we stop with this wishful thinking please that the virus will just somehow magically disappear? It's vaccines and social distancing that will defeat it. And hopefully just the vaccines will be enough in a few months.
How did Spanish Flu magically disappear?
It ran through enough people to build up herd immunity and killed 50 million along the way. Yes, we could have taken that approach. I prefer the vaccines.
Interesting counterfactual as to how deadly Covid would have been if it had happened in 1919.
My guess is it would have been far worse than Spanish flu.
A counter counter factual would be to point out that life expectancy in the UK in 1920 was 55 years for males and 59 years for females. In many parts of the world it was significantly lower. Given that the vast majority of deaths from C19 come from those over that age it may not have even been remarked upon. Spanish Flu tended to kill much younger people.
Amazing increase in life expectancy in a century. If I'd been born back then I'd probably be dead now.
As it is you've reached the age of 85 with no problems...
Is pattern not just because the prevalence is falling in the countries doing the most testing?
Deaths appear to be following the same pattern.
Hmm. I suppose the same applies to some extent, but it is harder to hide lots of deaths.
Is there any data available on the number of people across the world in some kind of formal lockdown vs date?
I haven't dug that deep. Seasonality, to me, seems extremely unlikely as South Africa, in its eummer, scary variant and everything, has also been following this trend. And what I find truly spooky is that SA peaked on 13 January, almost the same day as the UK and the US. That's possibly a post-Christmas effect but doesn't account for the sustaned call thereafter.
They unlocked a while back didn't they? No sign yet of an effect looking at that graph at least.
No they didn't. They made some tweaks, relaxing some particular draconian restrictions such as an alcohol selling ban that we never had in the first place.
Can we stop with this wishful thinking please that the virus will just somehow magically disappear? It's vaccines and social distancing that will defeat it. And hopefully just the vaccines will be enough in a few months.
How did Spanish Flu magically disappear?
It ran through enough people to build up herd immunity and killed 50 million along the way. Yes, we could have taken that approach. I prefer the vaccines.
Interesting counterfactual as to how deadly Covid would have been if it had happened in 1919.
My guess is it would have been far worse than Spanish flu.
A counter counter factual would be to point out that life expectancy in the UK in 1920 was 55 years for males and 59 years for females. In many parts of the world it was significantly lower. Given that the vast majority of deaths from C19 come from those over that age it may not have even been remarked upon. Spanish Flu tended to kill much younger people.
Amazing increase in life expectancy in a century. If I'd been born back then I'd probably be dead now.
As it is you've reached the age of 85 with no problems...
So what are we thinking apart from primary schools, if anything, will relax on March 8th?
Secondary schools?
Doesn't it make sense to do that after Easter when all vulnerable teachers will have been immunised.
Indeed, we've discussed before that by waiting three weeks, you snaffle an extra 17 days on top 'free of charge' because the schools break up fort Easter on Maundy Thursday anyway (1 April). They they don't return until Monday 19 April.
Yeah and of the government is serious about opening up vaccines to 40-49 year olds from late March then that means by the 19th of April all teachers in groups 1-9 will have reached their 3 week post jab immunity.
To my mind it is the right course of action as hopefully it means the R value won't rise very much when schools do open fully and we don't see a huge rise in cases like last time.
If the government is serious about ensuring we don't ever have to lockdown again then actually waiting on secondary schools and universities makes the most sense as they have the largest potential for disaster.
I would like to see some extension of the courses which are allowed some on-campus teaching. Practicals are allowed for some subjects but not others. I've got the list somewhere around here but discovered over the last fortnight that some unis have interpreted more flexibly than others.
I don't get the argument. Content has to be created, and that which is created by companies costs money. If Facebook provides links to said content and people click through to consume it then wouldn't everyone be happy? The story notes that a deal has been struck between Google and NewsCorp, yet if I go onto Google News it does not host stories and content, merely links to them. In this instance Google is driving traffic to News Corp not stealing from it.
So if Facebook's argument is that it has the right to offer plagiarised content that has been lifted from elsewhere and hosted on its own site, then surely the Aussie government is right? Facebook should allow people to *link* to news hosted elsewhere but not steal it for its own platform. Surely...
On the topic of plagiarism, I hope you have the Lord Lyon’s permission for that avatar......
Thank you for the article. The battle over control of the internet, and specifically the web, has been going on since the early 1990s. Tim Berners-Lee has fought long and hard for net freedom and his warnings should be heeded.
Comments
Nandy, perhaps? No one else jumps into my mind. I don't claim to be well versed on the Labour PLP outside the shadow cabinet (and not all of them!) and the former possibles such as Cooper, Benn or outside the PLP Khan or Burnham (none of those fit the bill, I think).
But the US signing up as a contributor yesterday has made a big difference.
https://twitter.com/benatipsosmori/status/1362774337955258370?s=20
There may be something of a snowball effect now. And it makes a big difference that actual vaccines of known effectiveness, and associated manufacturing capacity are there to be funded.
Dr Rosena Allin-Khan MD > Jacinda Ardern.
By the way, categorising the reopening of businesses, the allowing of small family gatherings and domestic travel as 'some tweaks' is stretching a point somewhat. They are pretty significant easements.
My guess is it would have been far worse than Spanish flu.
We all live on the same planet and this is one of those situations where we all need to be on the same page. Having Ursula go rogue yesterday about Sputnik V was again very unhelpful. If the trial data checks out then there's no reason to discount it as a viable solution.
We need to desperately depoliticise vaccines. The EU has done a lot of damage already but hopefully this a signal that they will shut up and just get on with it.
BrexitHumanitarian Britain STILL shaming the EU....Unless it turns out Trump was right and Biden is a frickin' idiot.....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RRv0Cy5NfiQ
You'd expect the effects of the relaxing to start showing up in the numbers two weeks later, so still a bit too soon to see a trend.
Weird.
Skyr would not have made such a rookie error.
Johnson's flags are beside him and as he's host he has to have them all.....though it looks like the EU flag might be out of shot, unfortunately.....
Macron and Merkel have gone for matching approached, one nation and one EU flag, in the same order over the same shoulder, emphasising EU unity. Lot of deadspace in Merkel's shot though, signifiying her time in office is coming to an end, whilst Macron keeps to the trappings of power in a fancy office shot, to show he is going nowhwere.
Draghi has rather slightly overshot the unity message, with 2 each of the EU flag and national, and got them the wrong way round to boot. But he's new in place, so may have missed the approved approach. The pot plant edging in is a none too subtle reminder to focus on Green issues.
Biden has the flags a bit close to him, making him look a bit hemmed in, under pressure. Combined with the traditional presidential seal halo effect he looks like he has giant bat wings and a crown - sinister indeed.
Suga (yes I had to look him up) has done for lone flag, either a sign of confidence or naivete compared to an old trooper like Trudeau. The slashed wall effect of the background makes it look like Godzilla has just attacked, but the flag, and Suga, are standing sttrong.
Ursula and the other one, meanwhile, have gone for a subtle approach, heavy on flags but minimised, and made sure the room itself is largely in EU themed colours. The empty space in the middle is not only to show how serious they are in dealing with pandemic issues, but an invitation to the people of the UK 'See, there is space for you as well, once we finish dealing with Boris'. Bold, but too obvious.
RT wants to reduce (metaphorical) non tariff barriers to material which the sources for commercial reasons (Guardian, Mail) put free in the public domain.
They are both right. But cannot both prevail. It is not remotely obvious which has to go; but if Facebook and co sweep the board financially then the producers won't be there any more.
Paywalls, for RT, cannot be the solution because they set up tariff barriers, which are even worse than non tariff barriers. The frictionless interchange of free stuff is the desired solution. It is perfectly possible that this cannot exist long term, any more than it did for Samuel Pepys or Charles Dickens.
Even with such partial herd immunity among the exposed though, if it wasn't for the vaccines, the epidemy would just reignite when the middle classes and pensioners emerge from their burrows.