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BREXIT: Undoing (some of) the damage. Part 1: The Principles – politicalbetting.com

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  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,809
    RobD said:

    But he had absolutely zero influence there.
    Pissing everyone off is a type of influence.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976

    Which is also fine. But I wasn't objecting to that. I was objecting to the characterisation that what this guy is saying is what "the EU" is saying which is clearly nonsense.
    I feel like our end of this argument would be happy to agree that he does not represent the entirety of thought within the EU, that other opinions may be found, and that he is not senior enough to singlehandedly alter the course of EU policy towards the UK, if you similarly accept that he is not a nobody, and likely has at least some influence on proceedings.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,550

    The Irish said it well: the best vaccine is the one available to you today.
    ...and the worst, one only available to your neighbours.

    Apparently.
  • He's just some random MEP. It's like saying something Farage tweets is "The UK".
    Not quite, he's the Chairman @EPPGroup
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,175
    Endillion said:

    I feel like our end of this argument would be happy to agree that he does not represent the entirety of thought within the EU, that other opinions may be found, and that he is not senior enough to singlehandedly alter the course of EU policy towards the UK, if you similarly accept that he is not a nobody, and likely has at least some influence on proceedings.
    I think that's fair.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,786

    No.

    They will work against China when it suits their interests but that is entirely a matter of self interest.

    They aren't closer or more vital on other issues than that. They aren't a part of Five Eyes and for very good reason.
    India, with its immense size and population, and ancient history and culture, seeks to be a Hindu superpower by itself. And will surely get there (and a UNSC seat). It is not part of this debate, tho it is a vital ally - especially when dealing with China
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    kinabalu said:

    But Philip doesn't want India in the "Anglosphere".
    Yes, we're establishing a secret society in a treehouse we built, and we're having a "No Indias" policy.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,035

    Bovine manure.

    A dignified and rational argument for leaving the EU was made by the likes of Johnson, Gove and others in Vote Leave that explicitly excluded Faragists. Johnson refused to share a stage with Farage, for very good reason.

    Farage is now a meaningless unelected hack chasing after migrants on a dinghy in the night with a camera phone while Johnson is First Lord of the Treasury and Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.

    That's a win in my books.
    But Boris & Gove weren't the face of Brexit in Europe, Farage was and they were quite happy to hide behind him and his pettiness and nastiness to achieve their ends. They can't just ignore it now it suits them.
  • The irony is that the Anglosphere is far more racially diverse and "Woke" than the EU. Nor it is retro - most world-leading Western companies are based or HQ'ed there.

    It's the fact that its genesis was through the British Empire that offends the Left.
    Brexit will change the face of the European Union in many ways. For one, it will make it a lot whiter.

    In a bloc that hasn’t placed much focus on increasing the political representation of minorities, the U.K. stands out. Its history of conversations about race relations is wholly different from most of Europe. It’s home to some of the most extensive anti-discrimination legislation and scholarly discussions around race. And it tracks and actively promotes minority leadership in politics and businesses through government-funded programs.

    Activists and some politicians in Brussels have called for U.K.-esque policies to be implemented in the EU for years — but Brexit makes that far less likely.


    https://www.politico.eu/article/brexit-diversity-exits-the-eu-brussels/
  • kinabalu said:

    But Philip doesn't want India in the "Anglosphere".
    I never said that.

    I said that India don't want to be in the Anglosphere. There's a difference.

    India will work with us when it's in their interests. Their interests are aligned when it comes to China but not as much on other issues.

    That's why they're not a part of Five Eyes today - what I want is neither here nor there.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,491
    edited February 2021
    All these countries being picky over AZN vaccine, slowness of UK to close the borders, etc, reminds me of this from nearly as year ago....

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1238504143104421888?s=20
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795



    IF that is correct.... sounds like a single source for this and the other stories on it...
    Yes. There's a Deep Throat somewhere in the DoH.

    Jonathan Van Tam would be my early favourite.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,043

    No.

    They will work against China when it suits their interests but that is entirely a matter of self interest.

    They aren't closer or more vital on other issues than that. They aren't a part of Five Eyes and for very good reason.
    No.

    India are by far the most important part of any Anglosphere arrangement or indeed any Asia Nato style arrangement to contain the Communist government of China.

    Without it it would be largely toothless militarily and economically. Australia and New Zealand are tiny economically and militarily by comparison without the ability to contain China.

    Otherwise forget the Anglosphere and just leave the US to deal with maintaining security in Asia as usual with other nations involved as and when needed
  • OllyT said:

    But Boris & Gove weren't the face of Brexit in Europe, Farage was and they were quite happy to hide behind him and his pettiness and nastiness to achieve their ends. They can't just ignore it now it suits them.
    Nonsense.

    Boris is the face of Brexit. He is the one who has been elected Prime Minister to Get Brexit Done and he is the one who has for nearly two years now been negotiating with them.

    Farage is a pub bore. He's not been speaking to them at all.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    edited February 2021
    The NHS vaccination data is now being widely leaked, as @BluestBlue says, probably by the same person.

    The government would be as well to get in front of it now, and publish. Every paper in Britain will have the story by the weekend.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976

    Bit of a lazy post because it's not really relevant to what I was saying.

    Leon asserted that it isn't hard to envisage a world whether the "Anglosphere" makes their "union" more politically linked.

    I said fine, but do they want that? What level of political integration is the limit? Do they want free movement of people, for example?

    There's several giant leaps from "5 Eyes" to "deeper ties" to "political union".

    I'm not opposed to further integration with the "Anglosphere" by the way.
    I dunno, all he said was "slightly more formal and political" (emphasis mine). I agree that (obviously) the exact working structure would be harder in practice to agree on than a vague desire to deepen ties. But the general principle seems to have some (albeit not necessarily overwhelming) support.
  • Not quite, he's the Chairman @EPPGroup
    But surely the point is that he is just one MEP - however influential some might or might not claim him to be. What he is suggesting in his idiotic tweet is exactly what the EU President mooted and tried to enforce a couple of weeks ago and look where that got her.

    If the President of the EU cannot bring in such a policy then I don't think we have to worry about one MEP, however influential he might want to think he is. It genuinely is like someone reading Farage or Starmer tweets as UK policy.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,175
    edited February 2021
    MaxPB said:

    It does seem like there is appetite for it. Look at how quickly the UK has been asked to join the CP-TPP by Canada and Australia in particular and I expect once we're in the US won't be far behind.

    Even the Five Eyes intelligence network has clearly begun coordinating some foreign policy wrt China.

    The UK leaving the EU is much bigger in global context than people realised. Losing the UK from the EU has meant the EU has pursued a hugely different policy towards China and Russia it would not have been able to do with the UK in it. That makes the EU a much less important ally to the US and makes the special relationship and reliable allies such as Canada and Australia much more important to our goals and to the goals of the US.

    It's not about political integration, it's about shared foreign policy aims wrt China (and Russia). No one wants to become the 51st state or have a joint political decision making process with any other nation, but we all recognise that the English speaking countries have a fairly similar world outlook and we can ultimately all rely on each other. When the UK needed trade negotiators we asked New Zealand and Canada to help train ours having been out of the game for decades. When we needed international coordination over HK we went to the US, Canada, NZ and Oz as our first phonecall. When the US wanted coordination over keeping Chinese state owned technology out of western supply chains, they came to the UK, Canada and Australia.

    You might not like it but our aims out of the EU are no longer aligned with the EU. We will need to treat the relationship as a transactional one, not as one between allies. We can see that they already see it as transactional, I think there is a realisation in Westminster that we need to do the same and rely on our old friends in the world to support each others policy aims.
    In reference to your last paragraph, I'm not sure that's fair. I've been very open to the fact that I support membership of CPTPP and deeper ties with CANZUK in response to us leaving the EU. My concern and question, although not worded very thoroughly, was to the level of "deeper ties".

    Trade is one thing, and I know that Brits on the whole would love having more "free movement" style arrangements with CANZUK for example, but I doubt there's the same clamour over there. Especially when our population is pushing more than the rest combined.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    HYUFD said:

    No.

    India are by far the most important part of any Anglosphere arrangement or indeed any Asia Nato style arrangement to contain the Communist government of China.

    Without it it would be largely toothless militarily and economically. Australia and New Zealand are tiny economically and militarily by comparison without the ability to contain China.

    Otherwise forget the Anglosphere and just leave the US to deal with maintaining security in Asia as usual with other nations involved as and when needed
    Unstoppable force meets immovable object.

    I wonder how many more times they can say "no" to each other in succession?

    Am I ruining the experiment by observing?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,839
    They’ve found some developed countries to compare with now.
    https://twitter.com/davekeating/status/1359494074848448512?s=21
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,809
    edited February 2021
    Leon said:

    Whatever. Your tediously Woke view of the world is as boring as it is pointless

    The Anglosphere is no fantasy. It clearly exists politically - Five Eyes, the Commonwealth. It clearly exists culturally - language, movies, literature, TV. It also exists demographically - more Brits live in Australia than live in the entire EU.

    It’s not hard to envisage a world, dividing into blocs, when the Anglosphere decides to make its cousinage slightly more formal and political.
    That you auto emit the "woke" trope is a tell. But look, seriously, these 'anglo' links are real - of course they are - but they will not solidify into a coherent bloc in the 21st century to rival USA, China, Europe. It's just not going to happen. The opposite in fact. The echoes of Empire are fading and will continue to fade. To think otherwise is a retro fantasy. If Brexit has raised your hopes on this front, it is yet one more delusion being cruelly fed.
  • Leon said:

    India, with its immense size and population, and ancient history and culture, seeks to be a Hindu superpower by itself. And will surely get there (and a UNSC seat). It is not part of this debate, tho it is a vital ally - especially when dealing with China
    Absolutely. India has its own interests. It is imperialistic nonsense to suggest we can or should override that.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,491
    edited February 2021

    They’ve found some developed countries to compare with now.
    twitter.com/davekeating/status/1359494074848448512?s=21

    He might as well change is twitter handle to "Official PR Account for EU Vaccine Rollout"....
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556

    The NHS vaccination data is now being widely leaked, as @BluestBlue says, probably by the same person.

    The government would be as well to get in front of it now, and publish. Every paper in Britain will have the story by the weekend.

    Eh? Not necessarily disputing it, but I didn't say that.
  • There are no tanks vaccines in Baghdad.....
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,175

    They’ve found some developed countries to compare with now.
    https://twitter.com/davekeating/status/1359494074848448512?s=21

    There's a really odd scale in operation on that map. I don't think this crap is very helpful.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,320
    This Five Eyes business gets completely overstated. In reality there is One Eye that occasionally throws a few scraps at the other four as its interests dictate. Though Canada gets a level of privilege and access through NORAD of which the other three can only dream.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,786
    HYUFD said:

    No.

    India are by far the most important part of any Anglosphere arrangement or indeed any Asia Nato style arrangement to contain the Communist government of China.

    Without it it would be largely toothless militarily and economically. Australia and New Zealand are tiny economically and militarily by comparison without the ability to contain China.

    Otherwise forget the Anglosphere and just leave the US to deal with maintaining security in Asia as usual with other nations involved as and when needed
    A truly bizarre point of view.

    An Anglosphere United on Foreign Policy would easily match up to China.

    China’s immediate realm is the Pacific. On the other side of the Pacific, it would face Canada and the USA to the east, Australia and NZ in the South. Basically, two entire continents. It would be checked.

    India would be our ally here, but also nations like Vietnam, Korea, which are historically wary of, or absolutely hostile to, China.

    China’s imperial ambitions are now clear, as is its autocratic ugliness under Xi Jinping. Containing it, and maintaining a balance of power, and therefore peace, along with western freedoms, is a central task for the 21st century

    The English speaking nations standing together will be a vital part of this.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,822

    In reference to your last paragraph, I'm not sure that's fair. I've been very open to the fact that I support membership of CPTPP and deeper ties with CANZUK in response to us leaving the EU. My concern and question, although not worded very thoroughly, was to the level of "deeper ties".

    Trade is one thing, and I know that Brits on the whole would love having more "free movement" style arrangements with CANZUK for example, but I doubt there's the same clamour over there. Especially when our population is pushing more than the rest combined.
    The answer is we don't know. We're only just out of the EU and finding out who our real friends are in the world. There's still a lot to figure out at the moment but there's definitely been a rekindling of old friendships between the UK and Anglo allies not in the EU since we've left. I don't know how far we will go with it but CPTPP membership and getting the US on board for it would reshape world trade and cooperation.

    We're definitely going to be in it sooner rather than later, after that it's about convincing Biden that the trade offs for agriculture (none of the countries will want to deal with them if they stick chlorinated chicken into it) are worth it for reasserting US presence in APAC and having a three quarter trade deal with the UK.

    If it does work out that way I expect the UK will further dilute the existing UK-EU deal in 5 years to something a lot more barebones on just trade.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    They’ve found some developed countries to compare with now.
    https://twitter.com/davekeating/status/1359494074848448512?s=21

    Why bother retweeting this clown? He is the Chemical Ali of vaccination programmes. Ignore him!
  • Dura_Ace said:

    This Five Eyes business gets completely overstated. In reality there is One Eye that occasionally throws a few scraps at the other four as its interests dictate. Though Canada gets a level of privilege and access through NORAD of which the other three can only dream.

    Knowing someone who is involved in this on the UK side I can confidently say you are talking rubbish - and not for the first time.
  • In reference to your last paragraph, I'm not sure that's fair. I've been very open to the fact that I support membership of CPTPP and deeper ties with CANZUK in response to us leaving the EU. My concern and question, although not worded very thoroughly, was to the level of "deeper ties".

    Trade is one thing, and I know that Brits on the whole would love having more "free movement" style arrangements with CANZUK for example, but I doubt there's the same clamour over there. Especially when our population is pushing more than the rest combined.
    Free movement is unlikely but is endorsed by some in all the nations concerned. Notably of course CANZUK excludes the USA.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_CANZUK_endorsements

    There's a difference though between viewing these as our closest allies and going as far as free movement.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976

    They’ve found some developed countries to compare with now.
    https://twitter.com/davekeating/status/1359494074848448512?s=21

    The difference between the EU and those countries is that they're not wondering if their health services will survive the quarter, and have less of an economic imperative to get vaccines out quickly and return to normality.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    Hmm. Including Australia on that list might be a little unfortunate given they get all their vaccine currently from Belgium and the EU has them on a list of countries that are to be covered by the export ban.
    The Oceanian countries could be in a pickle. Neither Australia nor New Zealand have vaccinated a single citizen; their borders are closed, and it's late summer there.

    Are they going to be able to get jabs in arms quickly enough?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    Eh? Not necessarily disputing it, but I didn't say that.

    Apologies, I confused you with @Malmesbury.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,043
    Leon said:

    A truly bizarre point of view.

    An Anglosphere United on Foreign Policy would easily match up to China.

    China’s immediate realm is the Pacific. On the other side of the Pacific, it would face Canada and the USA to the east, Australia and NZ in the South. Basically, two entire continents. It would be checked.

    India would be our ally here, but also nations like Vietnam, Korea, which are historically wary of, or absolutely hostile to, China.

    China’s imperial ambitions are now clear, as is its autocratic ugliness under Xi Jinping. Containing it, and maintaining a balance of power, and therefore peace, along with western freedoms, is a central task for the 21st century

    The English speaking nations standing together will be a vital part of this.
    No it wouldn't, the UK, Canada, Australia and New Zealand even combined are no match for China and even adding the USA at most comes to a score draw.

    India, with the second largest military in the world and soon to be the 3rd largest economy would tip the balance in the West's favour and is pivotal for an alliance to contain China to have real effect
  • There's a really odd scale in operation on that map. I don't think this crap is very helpful.
    Good point. Completely misleading to use exponential scaling on a vaccination chart it should be linear scaling.
  • Nunu3Nunu3 Posts: 265
    kle4 said:

    Seen reports that signatures needed for nominations in the locals will be cut from 10 to 2, and PCC might only need 2 per council area.

    If so that seems like big news, could be fewer uncontested seats and more candidates generally.

    Great news for would be Cllrs with Social Anxiety.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,357

    There's a really odd scale in operation on that map. I don't think this crap is very helpful.
    I think the colour bar is logarithmic, log(1)=0, log(3)=0.5, log(10)=1 etc.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,175

    Free movement is unlikely but is endorsed by some in all the nations concerned. Notably of course CANZUK excludes the USA.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_CANZUK_endorsements

    There's a difference though between viewing these as our closest allies and going as far as free movement.
    So when we say "deeper ties with CANZUK" what we basically mean is "trade deals and foreign policy objectives".

    That's fine but it's a long way from political integration on the level seen by the EU and it remains to be seen what the economic benefit of that will be.

    What will be interesting is whether republicanism jumps once QEII passes away and the effect (if any) that will have on cultural ties and goodwill.

    @HYUFD for example seems to treat rejection of the monarchy as a personal insult.
  • HYUFD said:

    No it wouldn't, the UK, Canada, Australia and New Zealand even combined are no match for China and even adding the USA at most comes to a score draw.

    India, with the second largest military in the world and soon to be the 3rd largest economy would tip the balance in the West's favour and is pivotal for an alliance to contain China to have real effect
    You're mad.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    edited February 2021

    But surely the point is that he is just one MEP - however influential some might or might not claim him to be. What he is suggesting in his idiotic tweet is exactly what the EU President mooted and tried to enforce a couple of weeks ago and look where that got her.

    If the President of the EU cannot bring in such a policy then I don't think we have to worry about one MEP, however influential he might want to think he is. It genuinely is like someone reading Farage or Starmer tweets as UK policy.
    He was the EPP (the biggest party) Spitzenkandidat for UvdL's job - so not just "any MEP".

    https://twitter.com/ManfredWeber/status/1359456999658950656?s=20
  • The Oceanian countries could be in a pickle. Neither Australia nor New Zealand have vaccinated a single citizen; their borders are closed, and it's late summer there.

    Are they going to be able to get jabs in arms quickly enough?
    Trouble is they ned to get vaccine. The Pfizer supplies are not due until the end of February - if the EU lets them have them. I suppose New Zealand is in less of a pickle as they seem to have adapted to the total isolation policy very well.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556

    They’ve found some developed countries to compare with now.
    https://twitter.com/davekeating/status/1359494074848448512?s=21

    I see the Lib Dems are applying their bar chart skills to maps now.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,814

    Bit of a lazy post because it's not really relevant to what I was saying.

    Leon asserted that it isn't hard to envisage a world whether the "Anglosphere" makes their "union" more politically linked.

    I said fine, but do they want that? What level of political integration is the limit? Do they want free movement of people, for example?

    There's several giant leaps from "5 Eyes" to "deeper ties" to "political union".

    I'm not opposed to further integration with the "Anglosphere" by the way.
    Personally, I find the idea of giving up sovereignty to 'the Anglosphere' after we just took it back from the EU to be utterly ridiculous. Unless the idea is that we're the biggest boy in it and everybody else in it just gives sovereignty up to us, which is unlikely and not necessarily desirable.

    Surely the first order of business is to renew the UK?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,175
    RobD said:

    I think the colour bar is logarithmic, log(1)=0, log(3)=0.5, log(10)=1 etc.
    It seems that way. However it's mad that 10% and 30% are the same colour - it's not informative at all.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,786
    kinabalu said:

    That you auto emit the "woke" trope is a tell. But look, seriously, these 'anglo' links are real - of course they are - but they will not solidify into a coherent bloc in the 21st century to rival USA, China, Europe. It's just not going to happen. The opposite in fact. The echoes of Empire are fading and will continue to fade. To think otherwise is a retro fantasy. If Brexit has raised your hopes on this front, it is yet one more delusion being cruelly fed.
    Sadly, for you, they’re not fading - I know you hate the British Empah and all that - but if there’s one thing that can unite old friends it is this: a common enemy. We now have one. Bigtime. China. It has simultaneously threatened or challenged all the major English-speaking nations in recent months. Whether this is deliberate or a diplomatic error, who knows. But the reaction is obvious. Human nature.

    Old friends will gang up to face the foe. A story as old as time, or, indeed, China.
  • RH1992RH1992 Posts: 788
    eek said:

    I'm really at a loss as to what he thinks he is posting about and to whom?
    He has a blue tick yet gets likes in the tens. Apart from the tiny audience France 24 gets and FBPE Twitter, PB must be the rest of his Tweet visibility.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556


    Apologies, I confused you with @Malmesbury.
    I'll take that as a compliment!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,357

    It seems that way. However it's mad that 10% and 30% are the same colour - it's not informative at all.
    Well he clearly has an agenda to push, so not surprising he'd pick one that is not very granular.
  • Personally, I find the idea of giving up sovereignty to 'the Anglosphere' after we just took it back from the EU to be utterly ridiculous. Unless the idea is that we're the biggest boy in it and everybody else in it just gives sovereignty up to us, which is unlikely and not necessarily desirable.

    Surely the first order of business is to renew the UK?
    Yep agreed. Trade deals, lost of military and diplomatic initiatives and support, even free movement if desired. But certainly not any form of political integration. For a start which former colony is going to look favourably on that in any way at all? And that is exactly how it will be portrayed.
  • I think when you are trying to big yourself up by comparing yourself to doing better than Botswana, I think you might be losing the argument.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,175

    Yep agreed. Trade deals, lost of military and diplomatic initiatives and support, even free movement if desired. But certainly not any form of political integration. For a start which former colony is going to look favourably on that in any way at all? And that is exactly how it will be portrayed.
    Surely "free movement" is in itself a level of political integration as it constraints certain elements of immigration and employment policy?
  • He was the EPP (the biggest party) Spitzenkandidat for UvdL's job - so not just "any MEP".

    https://twitter.com/ManfredWeber/status/1359456999658950656?s=20
    He is still not more powerful than the EU Commission President who already tried going down that route and got destroyed for it.
  • So when we say "deeper ties with CANZUK" what we basically mean is "trade deals and foreign policy objectives".

    That's fine but it's a long way from political integration on the level seen by the EU and it remains to be seen what the economic benefit of that will be.

    What will be interesting is whether republicanism jumps once QEII passes away and the effect (if any) that will have on cultural ties and goodwill.

    @HYUFD for example seems to treat rejection of the monarchy as a personal insult.
    Well indeed. I don't think there's any desire to integrate in the way the EU is doing.

    I strongly support the long-term Anglosphere alliance and seeking deeper trade and foreign policy objectives is a plus.

    But there's no need or requirement to have a CANZUK Parliament or CANZUK lawmaking like Europe has. That's where Europe has gone wrong.
  • Comical Dave's latest spin on EU taking its time to ratify:

    https://twitter.com/DaveKeating/status/1359498802718253059?s=20
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,043

    You're mad.
    No, that is the reality of the 21st century
  • Boris Johnson will lead a Downing Street press conference on coronavirus on Wednesday afternoon.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,786
    HYUFD said:

    No it wouldn't, the UK, Canada, Australia and New Zealand even combined are no match for China and even adding the USA at most comes to a score draw.

    India, with the second largest military in the world and soon to be the 3rd largest economy would tip the balance in the West's favour and is pivotal for an alliance to contain China to have real effect
    You can have alliances without having any kind of political/cultural/musicological union. That’s what we’d have with India, to contain China.

    It is in our mutual interest, and that is all that matters. FFS we successfully allied with Stalin to defeat Hitler, and Stalin was waaaaaay more alien to us than India is now

    This stuff is pretty basic. Geopolitics GCSE Year 1
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    Boris Johnson will lead a Downing Street press conference on coronavirus on Wednesday afternoon.

    FFS what for? what's the point?
  • Comical Dave should apply for a job with the Indian cricket commentary team, although he might be a bit too bias even for them.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,258
    Nigelb said:

    Great header, Richard.
    If the debate in the comments is anything to go by, your follow up list of practical suggestions can probably wait a couple of years...

    ...Move on from the obsolete framing of ‘Remainers’ and ‘Leavers’...

    Pragmatists vs diehard Brexiteers ?

    'Them' and 'Us'*
    'Us' and "Them'*

    *delete according to personal viewpoint
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,043

    So when we say "deeper ties with CANZUK" what we basically mean is "trade deals and foreign policy objectives".

    That's fine but it's a long way from political integration on the level seen by the EU and it remains to be seen what the economic benefit of that will be.

    What will be interesting is whether republicanism jumps once QEII passes away and the effect (if any) that will have on cultural ties and goodwill.

    @HYUFD for example seems to treat rejection of the monarchy as a personal insult.
    Unlikely in Canada, both the Liberal PM Trudeau and the Conservative Leader of the Opposition, Erin O'Toole, are monarchists.

    Unlikely too in Australia for the foreseeable future as the PM Scott Morrison is also a monarchist, though another referendum on the monarchy may be likely if Labor get back in, the last endorsing the monarchy in 1999.

    New Zealand probably the likeliest given Jacinda Ardern is a republican but she has not made it a priority either. A recent poll also had only 20% of New Zealanders backing a republic, 44% opposed and 36% neutral

    https://researchnz.com/assets/resources/NationalIdentity.pdf
  • EU risked disintegrating in face of coronavirus threat, says Ursula von der Leyen

    The EU would have collapsed amid infighting between its member countries if it hadn’t bought coronavirus vaccines as a bloc, the president of the European Commission said on Wednesday

    UNITY...UNITY...UNITY....MUST HAVE UNITY.....
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556

    Comical Dave's latest spin on EU taking its time to ratify:

    https://twitter.com/DaveKeating/status/1359498802718253059?s=20

    It's only February, and to have such a strong contender in the annual 'Biggest Wanker on Twitter' category is really something special. The competition could still catch up, but it'll have to be a come-from-behind victory at this point.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,357

    FFS what for? what's the point?
    He probably wants to announce something. Why else would he do it?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,043
    edited February 2021
    Leon said:

    You can have alliances without having any kind of political/cultural/musicological union. That’s what we’d have with India, to contain China.

    It is in our mutual interest, and that is all that matters. FFS we successfully allied with Stalin to defeat Hitler, and Stalin was waaaaaay more alien to us than India is now

    This stuff is pretty basic. Geopolitics GCSE Year 1
    Yes but that is the point, we needed the support of the USSR to actually defeat Nazi Germany as we would also need the support of India to ensure China's government can always be successfully contained.

    As you say India is also a free market democracy like us which the USSR was not
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,814
    I am quite excited about the UK joining the new thing (can we call it something simpler as shorthand, I will never remember the right amount of T's and P's?). I am even more excited if the US joins under the present terms, as it means we get a trade deal 'lite' with them without the scary bits, gutting the NHS etc.), and we don't even have to negotiate personally with them, which to be honest, isn't a fun prospect.

    BUT.

    If they come to the table and expect to put all their provisions which everyone hated before right back on the table, it is time to say NO. I completely appreciate that it's a bit impudent to try and block someone else from joining before we've even been given membership, but this would be an important chance to stand together with other friendly nations and say 'We want you with us, but you can forget plundering everyone's economy - that ship has sailed.'
  • Guernsey making face coverings in public mandatory.
  • He is still not more powerful than the EU Commission President who already tried going down that route and got destroyed for it.
    He should understand that what (vaccine) channel we choose to use is our business. He might claim he "has the (EU) law of contract on his side, but we have the knob on our side".
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,704

    FFS what for? what's the point?
    I see you're back from the WatO studios.

    :smile:
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,232

    EU risked disintegrating in face of coronavirus threat, says Ursula von der Leyen

    The EU would have collapsed amid infighting between its member countries if it hadn’t bought coronavirus vaccines as a bloc, the president of the European Commission said on Wednesday

    UNITY...UNITY...UNITY....MUST HAVE UNITY.....

    The answer probably is "more Europe" - they should have acted like the USA did on vaccines, a similar sized economy - Mike Pence Trump's warpspeed initiative was a good one.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005
    edited February 2021
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,786
    edited February 2021

    Yep agreed. Trade deals, lost of military and diplomatic initiatives and support, even free movement if desired. But certainly not any form of political integration. For a start which former colony is going to look favourably on that in any way at all? And that is exactly how it will be portrayed.
    I believe I started this debate so I’ll just point out that I said “slightly more formal” integration. SLIGHTLY

    Of course the UK is not about to join some new English speaking EU. But will there be closer ties, trade, free movement, foreign policy co-ordination? - yes, that’s possible, some of it is already happening. That is all.

    A concrete example: the UK in the EU was often obliged to present the EU’s opinion in the UNSC. That no longer applies. I expect the UK to present the united opinion of CANZUK in the future, when that is feasible. A subtle shift, but not entirely trivial. See already the response to Hong Kong

    Decades in the future a more definitive political union may evolve, if we’re not all dead from Covid, or completely fatigued by Tantric wanking by Taiwanese sex-bots

  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    RobD said:

    He probably wants to announce something. Why else would he do it?
    all the important stuff is announced.

    No summer holiday of any kind this year.

    Sentences for fibbing about where you were on holiday more harsh than carrying a loaded gun and sexual assault.

    Schools not going back on March 08. Children left to rot for longer.

    What else is there?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,207
    England only vaccination numbers

    Region of Residence 1st dose 2nd dose Cumulative Total Doses to Date
    Total 311,654 2,173 313,827
    East Of England 36,520 435 36,955
    London 31,181 239 31,420
    Midlands 59,035 149 59,184
    North East And Yorkshire 47,465 546 48,011
    North West 38,323 224 38,547
    South East 55,072 460 55,532
    South West 42,400 113 42,513
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,357

    all the important stuff is announced.

    No summer holiday of any kind this year.

    Sentences for fibbing about where you were on holiday more harsh than carrying a loaded gun and sexual assault.

    Schools not going back on March 08. Children left to rot for longer.

    What else is there?
    What side of bed did you get out of this morning?
  • HYUFD said:

    No, that is the reality of the 21st century
    No it is not.

    India may be allies against China but they won't be integral Anglosphere nations.

    Again Five Eyes isn't new it dates back in one form or another to the second world war. In that time we should make the distinction between NATO against the Soviet Union and Five Eyes. Turkey, Greece and West Germany etc were valuable NATO allies but they were not a part of the Anglosphere, they were not in Five Eyes.

    India may be in a NATO style alliance against China, but they're not going to be (nor do they desire to be) a part of Five Eyes.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,357
    AlistairM said:
    Paging @Anabobazina . Looks about on par.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    England only vaccination numbers

    Region of Residence 1st dose 2nd dose Cumulative Total Doses to Date
    Total 311,654 2,173 313,827
    East Of England 36,520 435 36,955
    London 31,181 239 31,420
    Midlands 59,035 149 59,184
    North East And Yorkshire 47,465 546 48,011
    North West 38,323 224 38,547
    South East 55,072 460 55,532
    South West 42,400 113 42,513

    Will probably end up being a shade under the required rate, but good enough for a Wednesday.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,175
    edited February 2021

    all the important stuff is announced.

    No summer holiday of any kind this year.

    Sentences for fibbing about where you were on holiday more harsh than carrying a loaded gun and sexual assault.

    Schools not going back on March 08. Children left to rot for longer.

    What else is there?
    Well at the moment someone fibbing about where they went on holiday is just as (or perhaps more so) dangerous and harmful as sexual assault or carrying a loaded gun, so it seems appropriate.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,809

    I never said that.

    I said that India don't want to be in the Anglosphere. There's a difference.

    India will work with us when it's in their interests. Their interests are aligned when it comes to China but not as much on other issues.

    That's why they're not a part of Five Eyes today - what I want is neither here nor there.
    Well I've just had a quick chat with India and they say if there is to be an Anglosphere - which they are skeptical of tbf - they do at least want to be asked if they'd like to be in it.
  • AlistairM said:

    twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1359502572109856771
    About 10K up on last week.

    Pace of increase appears to have ground to a halt. Hopefully larger supplies come online shortly.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180

    It seems that way. However it's mad that 10% and 30% are the same colour - it's not informative at all.
    That is because his aim is to obscure the reality.
  • So how many questions on summer holidays will we get from the journos this evening?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,786
    HYUFD said:

    Unlikely in Canada, both the Liberal PM Trudeau and the Conservative Leader of the Opposition, Erin O'Toole, are monarchists.

    Unlikely too in Australia for the foreseeable future as the PM Scott Morrison is also a monarchist, though another referendum on the monarchy may be likely if Labor get back in, the last endorsing the monarchy in 1999.

    New Zealand probably the likeliest given Jacinda Ardern is a republican but she has not made it a priority either. A recent poll also had only 20% of New Zealanders backing a republic, 44% opposed and 36% neutral

    https://researchnz.com/assets/resources/NationalIdentity.pdf
    And, remember, in a very recent referendum NZ voted to retain the Union Jack in its flag.

    These cultural/emotional ties are surprisingly resilient and tenacious
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,814

    Guernsey making face coverings in public mandatory.

    Even outdoors? Gosh.
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362

    EU risked disintegrating in face of coronavirus threat, says Ursula von der Leyen

    The EU would have collapsed amid infighting between its member countries if it hadn’t bought coronavirus vaccines as a bloc, the president of the European Commission said on Wednesday

    UNITY...UNITY...UNITY....MUST HAVE UNITY.....

    It’s true though isn’t it? It wasn’t a commission dictate, all the leaders of countries realised the danger of this and choose that route. Maybe not realising how crap the commission would be at leading on their behalf. Lol

    If they had been aggressively fighting each other for vaccine, they would have been aggressively competing with us too? Is our position down entirely to how absolutely brilliantly we were, or in all honesty at least in part how the EU nations took themselves out the game?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,809
    Endillion said:

    Yes, we're establishing a secret society in a treehouse we built, and we're having a "No Indias" policy.
    That's the vibe I'm getting. The Famous Five (eyes) and nobody else.

    The chaps you can trust.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    all the important stuff is announced.

    No summer holiday of any kind this year.

    Sentences for fibbing about where you were on holiday more harsh than carrying a loaded gun and sexual assault.

    Schools not going back on March 08. Children left to rot for longer.

    What else is there?
    Citation required.

    Who has said no summer holidays? JVT was asked about foreign holidays, if that's what you mean? (And even then he didn't rule them out)

    You are undermining your own arguments with hyperbole again.
  • kinabalu said:

    Well I've just had a quick chat with India and they say if there is to be an Anglosphere - which they are skeptical of tbf - they do at least want to be asked if they'd like to be in it.
    You're skeptical?

    There already is one and it dates back to World War Two. Which part of the past 80 years are you skeptical of?
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005

    They’ve found some developed countries to compare with now.
    https://twitter.com/davekeating/status/1359494074848448512?s=21

    The logarithmic scale on the chart is an "interesting" approach. You really don't need a log scale when scores are between 0 and 100. Unless of course you want to hide the vast differences between countries...
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    AlistairM said:

    That's a superb figure from Scotland, may well might push the UK past the RR when the NI numbers come in.
  • FF43 said:

    The Chinese embassy at Portland Place is historic. It dates back to the Qing dynasty.

    Edit could see it become the residence of the ambassador.
    Or in 50 years time, the residence of the Governor General.
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362

    So how many questions on summer holidays will we get from the journos this evening?

    At least the government is giving a clearer steer now. Don’t currently book any holiday in or out the country for this year, Shapps clearly said? Correct me where I am wrong.
This discussion has been closed.