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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview: June 19th 2014

Soham South on East Cambridgeshire (Independent Defence)
Result of council at last election (2011): Conservative 25, Liberal Democrats 10, Independents 4 (Conservative overall majority of 11)
Result of ward at last election (2011): Emboldened denotes elected
Conservatives 745, 578, 547
Independent 598, 590
Liberal Democrats 397, 300
Labour 335

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,804
    Thanks for this Harry, I expect this thread will be all about the soccer.
  • peter_from_putney
    peter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    edited June 2014
    First !!

    Edit: beaten yet again by inside information
  • Smarmeron
    Smarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @TheScreamingEagles

    And history?
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    SouthamObserver may be able to fill us in on the local election in his back yard.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/healthnews/10912105/Sunshine-can-be-addictive-like-heroin.html

    I'm going to get proper depressed if I move, we have ~300 days of sun a year.
  • FrankBooth
    FrankBooth Posts: 10,022

    Thanks for this Harry, I expect this thread will be all about the soccer.

    Just the 6 Liverpool players? Why no Lambert?

    I'm not optimistic on England's chances. They'll want to play on the counter attack but I suspect Uruguay won't let them. Not sure the manager knows any other way.

  • dr_spyn
    dr_spyn Posts: 11,311
    edited June 2014
    Phil Neville gets the excuses in early - Spanish Speaking Ref and Linesman....
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,804
    RobD said:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/healthnews/10912105/Sunshine-can-be-addictive-like-heroin.html

    I'm going to get proper depressed if I move, we have ~300 days of sun a year.

    Move to Yorkshire, it is the location of the Garden of Eden.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,804

    Thanks for this Harry, I expect this thread will be all about the soccer.

    Just the 6 Liverpool players? Why no Lambert?

    I'm not optimistic on England's chances. They'll want to play on the counter attack but I suspect Uruguay won't let them. Not sure the manager knows any other way.

    The media would go ballistic if Roy dropped the Granny Shagger.
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    Both local by elections tonight look tough for the conservatives.
    Fingers crossed for England.
  • ToryJim
    ToryJim Posts: 4,193

    Thanks for this Harry, I expect this thread will be all about the soccer.

    Just the 6 Liverpool players? Why no Lambert?

    I'm not optimistic on England's chances. They'll want to play on the counter attack but I suspect Uruguay won't let them. Not sure the manager knows any other way.

    The media would go ballistic if Roy dropped the Granny Shagger.
    Yes and he fails to do anything they'll go ballistic at him for not dropping him. Too many armchair managers etc
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,804
    Also gone for a red card in this match.
  • MikeSmithson
    MikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    They haven't scored yet
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,804
    I don't understand why Roy keeps on picking Danny Welbeck, he's a poor man's Emile Heskey.
  • stodge
    stodge Posts: 14,906
    Evening all :)

    As I'm sure the football will take care of itself, I'll be catching up on my Ascot viewing.

    As an LD, I was gratified by the Ashcroft polling which wasn't quite the combination of Doomsday and Armageddon that some on here were either expecting or hoping for. That doesn't mean seats won't be lost and it doesn't mean the Party won't be facing some tough defences but it offers the possibility of a Parliamentary group after 2015 larger than the Thatcher/Major years if smaller than the Blair/Brown years.

    As an aside, I suspect that had we had such polling in 2004 and 2009 it would have shown big potential losses. We know the LD vote is the softest of the main Party votes and it's the one that needs the most effort so the local campaigning between now and next May will be crucial but it does mean some of those seats where Ashcroft shows the party in arrears can be turned round (but that doesn't mean any LD can show a scintilla of complacency).

    The Party faces its toughest fight since 1979 to survive.
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    If there is a red card, what are the odds on it being Rooney?
  • dr_spyn
    dr_spyn Posts: 11,311
    close.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    It would be proper mortifying if the US qualify and we don't.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,804
    RobD said:

    It would be proper mortifying if the US qualify and we don't.

    I'm being positive, we've lasted longer in the World Cup than Spain, I'd have taken that before the World Cup
  • DavidL
    DavidL Posts: 55,866
    Surely this is Rooney
  • ToryJim
    ToryJim Posts: 4,193

    RobD said:

    It would be proper mortifying if the US qualify and we don't.

    I'm being positive, we've lasted longer in the World Cup than Spain, I'd have taken that before the World Cup
    Hmm
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608

    RobD said:

    It would be proper mortifying if the US qualify and we don't.

    I'm being positive, we've lasted longer in the World Cup than Spain, I'd have taken that before the World Cup
    Only by virtue of them playing first!
  • DavidL
    DavidL Posts: 55,866
    Can't believe that Johnson is still playing. Did Jade lend him some pictures?
  • Still 1 hour and 45 mins to go before kick-off and Betfair is matching almost £100,000 per minute
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608

    Still 1 hour and 45 mins to go before kick-off and Betfair is matching almost £100,000 per minute

    Kick off happened 20 mins ago!
  • DavidL
    DavidL Posts: 55,866

    Still 1 hour and 45 mins to go before kick-off and Betfair is matching almost £100,000 per minute

    19 minutes played. 0-0 by the way.

  • DavidL
    DavidL Posts: 55,866
    edited June 2014
    "Not too much to choose between the teams". Nope. They are both very ordinary.
  • Oops, just come in - I thought it was a 10pm k.o.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,804
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    It would be proper mortifying if the US qualify and we don't.

    I'm being positive, we've lasted longer in the World Cup than Spain, I'd have taken that before the World Cup
    Only by virtue of them playing first!
    I'd make for an excellent Spin Doctor.

    It was a truly terrible night for the iceberg, smashed into a million pieces by the Titanic.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,804
    That should have been a red card, some of us have money on this.
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2014
    "Iraq crisis: Isis jihadists 'seize Saddam Hussein's chemical weapons stockpile' - live"

    I thought Saddam didn't have any chemical weapons?

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iraq/10910868/Iraq-crisis-Obama-may-launch-air-strikes-without-Congress-amid-calls-for-Maliki-to-go-live.html
  • ToryJim
    ToryJim Posts: 4,193
    This ref isn't very good
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Most refs don't seem to like sending people off in the first 30 mins.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,804
    Suarez FGS - Another winner by me
  • dr_spyn
    dr_spyn Posts: 11,311
    edited June 2014
    goal liverpool...Uruguay.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    Bugger
  • DavidL
    DavidL Posts: 55,866
    Oh lord.
  • ToryJim
    ToryJim Posts: 4,193
    AndyJS said:

    Most refs don't seem to like sending people off in the first 30 mins.

    I wasn't referring to that particularly.
  • MikeSmithson
    MikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Now let's talk about the by-elections
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Cash out time, sadly.
  • foxinsoxuk
    foxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Poor marking by Jagielka.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,804

    Now let's talk about the by-elections

    A Portsmouth South by-election would be fascinating.
  • ToryJim
    ToryJim Posts: 4,193
    This might spur England on.
  • dr_spyn
    dr_spyn Posts: 11,311

    Now let's talk about the by-elections

    turnout will be low amongst men, but women will be voting in record numbers this evening.

  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    edited June 2014
    How did I miss this from earlier. Any idea where the owl tweet came from? LOL

    twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/479627404957462528/photo/1
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,804
    RobD said:

    How did I miss this from earlier. Any idea where the owl tweet came from? LOL

    twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/479627404957462528/photo/1

    Tut!

    I came up with the Owlright, We're Owlright gag.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608

    RobD said:

    How did I miss this from earlier. Any idea where the owl tweet came from? LOL

    twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/479627404957462528/photo/1

    Tut!

    I came up with the Owlright, We're Owlright gag.
    Gotta put it as an image macro to make an impact ;-)
  • Smarmeron
    Smarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @AndyJS

    According to the link you gave, it appears that it is mainly unfilled ordinance, and chemicals that are to unsafe to move. The CIA is of the opinion that ISIS would not be able to make anything deploy-able with what is in the sites.
    Then again? Their track record is questionable.
  • DavidL
    DavidL Posts: 55,866
    Very ordinary half from England with almost no goal threat and precious little football. Got to do so much better in the second half.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,804
    edited June 2014
    I've just remembered that I've got a 7/2 bet on Suarez to score more goals at the world cup than England.
  • dr_spyn
    dr_spyn Posts: 11,311
    Is Adrian Chiles watching the same match as the rest of us? Other than a good free kick what have England done?
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    dr_spyn said:

    Is Adrian Chiles watching the same match as the rest of us? Other than a good free kick what have England done?

    Rooney's header was also pretty close!
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813

    I've just remembered that I've got a 7/2 bet on Suarez to score goals at the world cup than England.

    I just backed England at 7-2.
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Sky News / YouGov: voters would prefer David Miliband to be Labour leader.
  • dr_spyn
    dr_spyn Posts: 11,311
    RobD said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Is Adrian Chiles watching the same match as the rest of us? Other than a good free kick what have England done?

    Rooney's header was also pretty close!
    must have dozed off just like that England Centre Half.

  • ToryJim
    ToryJim Posts: 4,193
    Think we are heading out, I think we are just not quite there yet but then that's how we always are
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    dr_spyn said:

    RobD said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Is Adrian Chiles watching the same match as the rest of us? Other than a good free kick what have England done?

    Rooney's header was also pretty close!
    must have dozed off just like that England Centre Half.

    miaow! :D
  • MikeSmithson
    MikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    England always lose vital WC games which are shown on ITV
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608

    England always lose vital WC games which are shown on ITV

    Sounds like a good reason to not let them show any more games, ever.
  • ToryJim
    ToryJim Posts: 4,193
    AndyJS said:

    Sky News / YouGov: voters would prefer David Miliband to be Labour leader.

    There seems a concerted anti-Ed thing going on.

  • FrankBooth
    FrankBooth Posts: 10,022

    Now let's talk about the by-elections

    A Portsmouth South by-election would be fascinating.
    England only win the World Cup under a Labour government. How many times do you have to be told. Gordon should be smiling right now.
  • DavidL
    DavidL Posts: 55,866
    It is all on the next goal. Next one for Uruguay and it is all over. I fear that is the most likely but if England get one back I would still expect them to win.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,804

    Now let's talk about the by-elections

    A Portsmouth South by-election would be fascinating.
    England only win the World Cup under a Labour government. How many times do you have to be told. Gordon should be smiling right now.
    England won the world t20 under the coalition.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Back (Bet For) Odds Stake Profit
    England 4.5 £5.75
    £20.13

    Lay (Bet Against) Backer's odds Backer's stake Your liability
    England 2.22 £16.39
    £20.00
  • ToryJim
    ToryJim Posts: 4,193

    Now let's talk about the by-elections

    A Portsmouth South by-election would be fascinating.
    England only win the World Cup under a Labour government. How many times do you have to be told. Gordon should be smiling right now.
    We've only won once it's hardly compelling ;)
  • FrankBooth
    FrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    For once there's a decent panel of pundits at this World Cup. Shame about the score.
  • FrankBooth
    FrankBooth Posts: 10,022

    England always lose vital WC games which are shown on ITV

    Anyone would think you once worked for the BBC.
  • ToryJim
    ToryJim Posts: 4,193
    DavidL said:

    It is all on the next goal. Next one for Uruguay and it is all over. I fear that is the most likely but if England get one back I would still expect them to win.

    To be honest if we are fated to lose I'd rather be drubbed as at least then you can't blame missed chances, bad decisions etc

  • Scrapheap_as_was
    Scrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Owl
  • dr_spyn
    dr_spyn Posts: 11,311
    Deflection to Lib Dems in Bath from Labour.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-somerset-27920557
  • AlastairMeeks
    AlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    What is this soccerball thing anyway?
  • AlastairMeeks
    AlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    dr_spyn said:

    Deflection to Lib Dems in Bath from Labour.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-somerset-27920557

    No one could accuse the Labour group leader of lack of patriotism.
  • Tykejohnno
    Tykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Does anyone know the last match England won away from home ?
  • Scrapheap_as_was
    Scrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Cricket tomorrow at least...
  • foxinsoxuk
    foxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    I think Uruguay want to pile on and get some decent goal difference as that may be critical for second place.

    BTW Roy Hodgson looks rather like an owl. Has Ed jinxed him?
    DavidL said:

    It is all on the next goal. Next one for Uruguay and it is all over. I fear that is the most likely but if England get one back I would still expect them to win.

  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,804
    edited June 2014

    Cricket tomorrow at least...

    I have tickets for Saturday and Sunday.
  • Carola
    Carola Posts: 1,805
    Kitcat quitting as council leader in Brighton.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,804
    I am not cashing out on Uruguay, because England are going to get the Dockside hooker treatment.
  • Carnyx
    Carnyx Posts: 44,654
    SeanT said:

    ToryJim said:

    DavidL said:

    It is all on the next goal. Next one for Uruguay and it is all over. I fear that is the most likely but if England get one back I would still expect them to win.

    To be honest if we are fated to lose I'd rather be drubbed as at least then you can't blame missed chances, bad decisions etc

    We're just a very mediocre team, with an average manager. Not one player is anywhere near world class (Rooney was, but no longer). Qualifying then going out in the first round is about right.

    No tears need be shed.
    I disagree completely. I am really hoping that England win the World Cup. ...
  • AveryLP
    AveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Carola said:

    Kitcat quitting as council leader in Brighton.

    Having a break?

  • Tykejohnno
    Tykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    SeanT said:

    I think Uruguay want to pile on and get some decent goal difference as that may be critical for second place.

    BTW Roy Hodgson looks rather like an owl. Has Ed jinxed him?

    DavidL said:

    It is all on the next goal. Next one for Uruguay and it is all over. I fear that is the most likely but if England get one back I would still expect them to win.

    What a dreadful appointment he was. The only way this average England generation might prosper is with a truly inspiring manager. A maverick. Not Hodgson.
    How true.
  • surbiton
    surbiton Posts: 13,549
    Sterling is havinga bad game !
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    SeanT said:

    Carnyx said:

    SeanT said:

    ToryJim said:

    DavidL said:

    It is all on the next goal. Next one for Uruguay and it is all over. I fear that is the most likely but if England get one back I would still expect them to win.

    To be honest if we are fated to lose I'd rather be drubbed as at least then you can't blame missed chances, bad decisions etc

    We're just a very mediocre team, with an average manager. Not one player is anywhere near world class (Rooney was, but no longer). Qualifying then going out in the first round is about right.

    No tears need be shed.
    I disagree completely. I am really hoping that England win the World Cup. ...
    Hah. Yes. The Union is saved, as England get tonked.
    I hope for commanding Tory leads and England winning every football championship post September 2014. :')
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Are these really the best 11 footballers in the country?
  • MarkHopkins
    MarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    AndyJS said:

    Are these really the best 11 footballers in the country?


    No. But the best 11 footballers in the country are all immigrants.

  • AveryLP
    AveryLP Posts: 7,815
    surbiton said:

    Sterling is havinga bad game !

    What are you talking about, Surby?

    The pound rose to the highest in 5 1/2 years against the dollar after the Federal Reserve said it would keep interest rates near zero while the U.K. is moving closer to raising borrowing costs.

    [...]

    The pound strengthened 1.8 percent in the past month, the best performer among 10 developed-nation currencies tracked by Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes. The euro slipped 0.4 percent, while the dollar gained 0.3 percent.
    [Bloomberg]

    Sterling's performance has even silenced Mark Senior.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,804
    At least we're not going out on penalties.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,804
    Actually my prediction for this match was it to be a draw until injury time, when Luis Suarez dives and wins a penalty, whilst simultaneously biting Gary Cahill and hurling racial epithets at Danny Welbeck.
  • Carnyx
    Carnyx Posts: 44,654
    SeanT said:

    Carnyx said:

    SeanT said:

    ToryJim said:

    DavidL said:

    It is all on the next goal. Next one for Uruguay and it is all over. I fear that is the most likely but if England get one back I would still expect them to win.

    To be honest if we are fated to lose I'd rather be drubbed as at least then you can't blame missed chances, bad decisions etc

    We're just a very mediocre team, with an average manager. Not one player is anywhere near world class (Rooney was, but no longer). Qualifying then going out in the first round is about right.

    No tears need be shed.
    I disagree completely. I am really hoping that England win the World Cup. ...
    Hah. Yes. The Union is saved, as England get tonked.
    Those of us who don't like footie can play spot the activist:

    http://wingsoverscotland.com/the-jim-murphy-fan-club/

  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Uruguay: about the same population as Wales. And the smallest population of any country in the tournament.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    Carnyx said:

    SeanT said:

    Carnyx said:

    SeanT said:

    ToryJim said:

    DavidL said:

    It is all on the next goal. Next one for Uruguay and it is all over. I fear that is the most likely but if England get one back I would still expect them to win.

    To be honest if we are fated to lose I'd rather be drubbed as at least then you can't blame missed chances, bad decisions etc

    We're just a very mediocre team, with an average manager. Not one player is anywhere near world class (Rooney was, but no longer). Qualifying then going out in the first round is about right.

    No tears need be shed.
    I disagree completely. I am really hoping that England win the World Cup. ...
    Hah. Yes. The Union is saved, as England get tonked.
    Those of us who don't like footie can play spot the activist:

    http://wingsoverscotland.com/the-jim-murphy-fan-club/

    Wow. Some people really need to get a life. I am sure a similar sort of thing could be done for almost any political campaign ever.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    GOOOAALLLLL
  • ToryJim
    ToryJim Posts: 4,193
    AndyJS said:

    Uruguay: about the same population as Wales. And the smallest population of any country in the tournament.

    Apparently nearly 60% of Uruguayan farming is sheep.
  • dr_spyn
    dr_spyn Posts: 11,311
    Goal for England.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,804
    Right, who said Rooney and Johnson were crap.
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Yes yes yes yes yes.
  • Alanbrooke
    Alanbrooke Posts: 25,926

    Right, who said Rooney and Johnson were crap.

    I said Rooney was crap.

    There are three wise men with camels riding through Warwickshire/
  • Carnyx
    Carnyx Posts: 44,654
    RobD said:

    Carnyx said:

    SeanT said:

    Carnyx said:

    SeanT said:

    ToryJim said:

    DavidL said:

    It is all on the next goal. Next one for Uruguay and it is all over. I fear that is the most likely but if England get one back I would still expect them to win.

    To be honest if we are fated to lose I'd rather be drubbed as at least then you can't blame missed chances, bad decisions etc

    We're just a very mediocre team, with an average manager. Not one player is anywhere near world class (Rooney was, but no longer). Qualifying then going out in the first round is about right.

    No tears need be shed.
    I disagree completely. I am really hoping that England win the World Cup. ...
    Hah. Yes. The Union is saved, as England get tonked.
    Those of us who don't like footie can play spot the activist:

    http://wingsoverscotland.com/the-jim-murphy-fan-club/

    Wow. Some people really need to get a life. I am sure a similar sort of thing could be done for almost any political campaign ever.
    I don't know enough about enough parties to judge the truth of that statement (though doubt it for, e.g., Gladstone's Midlothian campaign [ironic joke]). But yes, it is an odd way to spend a day even if they like ice creams. And it does poses some interesting questions about whether some people think other people's heads zip up the back, to use the Glaswegian idiom, when it is so easily demonstrated by citizen journalism [substitute 'cybernattery' if you are Lord Foulkes or Better Together]..

  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,804
    Uruguay collapsing like the Carthaginians at Zama
  • antifrank1
    antifrank1 Posts: 81
    ToryJim said:

    AndyJS said:

    Uruguay: about the same population as Wales. And the smallest population of any country in the tournament.

    Apparently nearly 60% of Uruguayan farming is sheep.
    But Fray Bentos is beef?
This discussion has been closed.