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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview: June 19th 2014

SystemSystem Posts: 12,213
edited June 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview: June 19th 2014

Soham South on East Cambridgeshire (Independent Defence)
Result of council at last election (2011): Conservative 25, Liberal Democrats 10, Independents 4 (Conservative overall majority of 11)
Result of ward at last election (2011): Emboldened denotes elected
Conservatives 745, 578, 547
Independent 598, 590
Liberal Democrats 397, 300
Labour 335

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Thanks for this Harry, I expect this thread will be all about the soccer.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    edited June 2014
    First !!

    Edit: beaten yet again by inside information
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @TheScreamingEagles

    And history?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    SouthamObserver may be able to fill us in on the local election in his back yard.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/healthnews/10912105/Sunshine-can-be-addictive-like-heroin.html

    I'm going to get proper depressed if I move, we have ~300 days of sun a year.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928

    Thanks for this Harry, I expect this thread will be all about the soccer.

    Just the 6 Liverpool players? Why no Lambert?

    I'm not optimistic on England's chances. They'll want to play on the counter attack but I suspect Uruguay won't let them. Not sure the manager knows any other way.

  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    edited June 2014
    Phil Neville gets the excuses in early - Spanish Speaking Ref and Linesman....
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    RobD said:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/healthnews/10912105/Sunshine-can-be-addictive-like-heroin.html

    I'm going to get proper depressed if I move, we have ~300 days of sun a year.

    Move to Yorkshire, it is the location of the Garden of Eden.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959

    Thanks for this Harry, I expect this thread will be all about the soccer.

    Just the 6 Liverpool players? Why no Lambert?

    I'm not optimistic on England's chances. They'll want to play on the counter attack but I suspect Uruguay won't let them. Not sure the manager knows any other way.

    The media would go ballistic if Roy dropped the Granny Shagger.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Both local by elections tonight look tough for the conservatives.
    Fingers crossed for England.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189

    Thanks for this Harry, I expect this thread will be all about the soccer.

    Just the 6 Liverpool players? Why no Lambert?

    I'm not optimistic on England's chances. They'll want to play on the counter attack but I suspect Uruguay won't let them. Not sure the manager knows any other way.

    The media would go ballistic if Roy dropped the Granny Shagger.
    Yes and he fails to do anything they'll go ballistic at him for not dropping him. Too many armchair managers etc
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Also gone for a red card in this match.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    They haven't scored yet
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    I don't understand why Roy keeps on picking Danny Welbeck, he's a poor man's Emile Heskey.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,986
    Evening all :)

    As I'm sure the football will take care of itself, I'll be catching up on my Ascot viewing.

    As an LD, I was gratified by the Ashcroft polling which wasn't quite the combination of Doomsday and Armageddon that some on here were either expecting or hoping for. That doesn't mean seats won't be lost and it doesn't mean the Party won't be facing some tough defences but it offers the possibility of a Parliamentary group after 2015 larger than the Thatcher/Major years if smaller than the Blair/Brown years.

    As an aside, I suspect that had we had such polling in 2004 and 2009 it would have shown big potential losses. We know the LD vote is the softest of the main Party votes and it's the one that needs the most effort so the local campaigning between now and next May will be crucial but it does mean some of those seats where Ashcroft shows the party in arrears can be turned round (but that doesn't mean any LD can show a scintilla of complacency).

    The Party faces its toughest fight since 1979 to survive.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    If there is a red card, what are the odds on it being Rooney?
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    close.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030
    It would be proper mortifying if the US qualify and we don't.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    RobD said:

    It would be proper mortifying if the US qualify and we don't.

    I'm being positive, we've lasted longer in the World Cup than Spain, I'd have taken that before the World Cup
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014
    Surely this is Rooney
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189

    RobD said:

    It would be proper mortifying if the US qualify and we don't.

    I'm being positive, we've lasted longer in the World Cup than Spain, I'd have taken that before the World Cup
    Hmm
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030

    RobD said:

    It would be proper mortifying if the US qualify and we don't.

    I'm being positive, we've lasted longer in the World Cup than Spain, I'd have taken that before the World Cup
    Only by virtue of them playing first!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014
    Can't believe that Johnson is still playing. Did Jade lend him some pictures?
  • Still 1 hour and 45 mins to go before kick-off and Betfair is matching almost £100,000 per minute
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030

    Still 1 hour and 45 mins to go before kick-off and Betfair is matching almost £100,000 per minute

    Kick off happened 20 mins ago!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014

    Still 1 hour and 45 mins to go before kick-off and Betfair is matching almost £100,000 per minute

    19 minutes played. 0-0 by the way.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014
    edited June 2014
    "Not too much to choose between the teams". Nope. They are both very ordinary.
  • Oops, just come in - I thought it was a 10pm k.o.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    It would be proper mortifying if the US qualify and we don't.

    I'm being positive, we've lasted longer in the World Cup than Spain, I'd have taken that before the World Cup
    Only by virtue of them playing first!
    I'd make for an excellent Spin Doctor.

    It was a truly terrible night for the iceberg, smashed into a million pieces by the Titanic.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    That should have been a red card, some of us have money on this.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2014
    "Iraq crisis: Isis jihadists 'seize Saddam Hussein's chemical weapons stockpile' - live"

    I thought Saddam didn't have any chemical weapons?

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iraq/10910868/Iraq-crisis-Obama-may-launch-air-strikes-without-Congress-amid-calls-for-Maliki-to-go-live.html
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    This ref isn't very good
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Most refs don't seem to like sending people off in the first 30 mins.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Suarez FGS - Another winner by me
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    edited June 2014
    goal liverpool...Uruguay.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030
    Bugger
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014
    Oh lord.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    AndyJS said:

    Most refs don't seem to like sending people off in the first 30 mins.

    I wasn't referring to that particularly.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Now let's talk about the by-elections
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Cash out time, sadly.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Poor marking by Jagielka.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959

    Now let's talk about the by-elections

    A Portsmouth South by-election would be fascinating.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    This might spur England on.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300

    Now let's talk about the by-elections

    turnout will be low amongst men, but women will be voting in record numbers this evening.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030
    edited June 2014
    How did I miss this from earlier. Any idea where the owl tweet came from? LOL

    twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/479627404957462528/photo/1
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    RobD said:

    How did I miss this from earlier. Any idea where the owl tweet came from? LOL

    twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/479627404957462528/photo/1

    Tut!

    I came up with the Owlright, We're Owlright gag.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030

    RobD said:

    How did I miss this from earlier. Any idea where the owl tweet came from? LOL

    twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/479627404957462528/photo/1

    Tut!

    I came up with the Owlright, We're Owlright gag.
    Gotta put it as an image macro to make an impact ;-)
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @AndyJS

    According to the link you gave, it appears that it is mainly unfilled ordinance, and chemicals that are to unsafe to move. The CIA is of the opinion that ISIS would not be able to make anything deploy-able with what is in the sites.
    Then again? Their track record is questionable.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014
    Very ordinary half from England with almost no goal threat and precious little football. Got to do so much better in the second half.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    edited June 2014
    I've just remembered that I've got a 7/2 bet on Suarez to score more goals at the world cup than England.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Is Adrian Chiles watching the same match as the rest of us? Other than a good free kick what have England done?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030
    dr_spyn said:

    Is Adrian Chiles watching the same match as the rest of us? Other than a good free kick what have England done?

    Rooney's header was also pretty close!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406

    I've just remembered that I've got a 7/2 bet on Suarez to score goals at the world cup than England.

    I just backed England at 7-2.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Sky News / YouGov: voters would prefer David Miliband to be Labour leader.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    RobD said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Is Adrian Chiles watching the same match as the rest of us? Other than a good free kick what have England done?

    Rooney's header was also pretty close!
    must have dozed off just like that England Centre Half.

  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    Think we are heading out, I think we are just not quite there yet but then that's how we always are
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030
    dr_spyn said:

    RobD said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Is Adrian Chiles watching the same match as the rest of us? Other than a good free kick what have England done?

    Rooney's header was also pretty close!
    must have dozed off just like that England Centre Half.

    miaow! :D
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    England always lose vital WC games which are shown on ITV
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030

    England always lose vital WC games which are shown on ITV

    Sounds like a good reason to not let them show any more games, ever.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    AndyJS said:

    Sky News / YouGov: voters would prefer David Miliband to be Labour leader.

    There seems a concerted anti-Ed thing going on.

  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928

    Now let's talk about the by-elections

    A Portsmouth South by-election would be fascinating.
    England only win the World Cup under a Labour government. How many times do you have to be told. Gordon should be smiling right now.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014
    It is all on the next goal. Next one for Uruguay and it is all over. I fear that is the most likely but if England get one back I would still expect them to win.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959

    Now let's talk about the by-elections

    A Portsmouth South by-election would be fascinating.
    England only win the World Cup under a Labour government. How many times do you have to be told. Gordon should be smiling right now.
    England won the world t20 under the coalition.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Back (Bet For) Odds Stake Profit
    England 4.5 £5.75
    £20.13

    Lay (Bet Against) Backer's odds Backer's stake Your liability
    England 2.22 £16.39
    £20.00
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189

    Now let's talk about the by-elections

    A Portsmouth South by-election would be fascinating.
    England only win the World Cup under a Labour government. How many times do you have to be told. Gordon should be smiling right now.
    We've only won once it's hardly compelling ;)
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928
    For once there's a decent panel of pundits at this World Cup. Shame about the score.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928

    England always lose vital WC games which are shown on ITV

    Anyone would think you once worked for the BBC.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    DavidL said:

    It is all on the next goal. Next one for Uruguay and it is all over. I fear that is the most likely but if England get one back I would still expect them to win.

    To be honest if we are fated to lose I'd rather be drubbed as at least then you can't blame missed chances, bad decisions etc

  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Owl
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Deflection to Lib Dems in Bath from Labour.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-somerset-27920557
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    What is this soccerball thing anyway?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    dr_spyn said:

    Deflection to Lib Dems in Bath from Labour.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-somerset-27920557

    No one could accuse the Labour group leader of lack of patriotism.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Does anyone know the last match England won away from home ?
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Cricket tomorrow at least...
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    I think Uruguay want to pile on and get some decent goal difference as that may be critical for second place.

    BTW Roy Hodgson looks rather like an owl. Has Ed jinxed him?
    DavidL said:

    It is all on the next goal. Next one for Uruguay and it is all over. I fear that is the most likely but if England get one back I would still expect them to win.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    edited June 2014

    Cricket tomorrow at least...

    I have tickets for Saturday and Sunday.
  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    Kitcat quitting as council leader in Brighton.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    I am not cashing out on Uruguay, because England are going to get the Dockside hooker treatment.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,336
    SeanT said:

    ToryJim said:

    DavidL said:

    It is all on the next goal. Next one for Uruguay and it is all over. I fear that is the most likely but if England get one back I would still expect them to win.

    To be honest if we are fated to lose I'd rather be drubbed as at least then you can't blame missed chances, bad decisions etc

    We're just a very mediocre team, with an average manager. Not one player is anywhere near world class (Rooney was, but no longer). Qualifying then going out in the first round is about right.

    No tears need be shed.
    I disagree completely. I am really hoping that England win the World Cup. ...
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Carola said:

    Kitcat quitting as council leader in Brighton.

    Having a break?

  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    SeanT said:

    I think Uruguay want to pile on and get some decent goal difference as that may be critical for second place.

    BTW Roy Hodgson looks rather like an owl. Has Ed jinxed him?

    DavidL said:

    It is all on the next goal. Next one for Uruguay and it is all over. I fear that is the most likely but if England get one back I would still expect them to win.

    What a dreadful appointment he was. The only way this average England generation might prosper is with a truly inspiring manager. A maverick. Not Hodgson.
    How true.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Sterling is havinga bad game !
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030
    SeanT said:

    Carnyx said:

    SeanT said:

    ToryJim said:

    DavidL said:

    It is all on the next goal. Next one for Uruguay and it is all over. I fear that is the most likely but if England get one back I would still expect them to win.

    To be honest if we are fated to lose I'd rather be drubbed as at least then you can't blame missed chances, bad decisions etc

    We're just a very mediocre team, with an average manager. Not one player is anywhere near world class (Rooney was, but no longer). Qualifying then going out in the first round is about right.

    No tears need be shed.
    I disagree completely. I am really hoping that England win the World Cup. ...
    Hah. Yes. The Union is saved, as England get tonked.
    I hope for commanding Tory leads and England winning every football championship post September 2014. :')
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Are these really the best 11 footballers in the country?
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    AndyJS said:

    Are these really the best 11 footballers in the country?


    No. But the best 11 footballers in the country are all immigrants.

  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    surbiton said:

    Sterling is havinga bad game !

    What are you talking about, Surby?

    The pound rose to the highest in 5 1/2 years against the dollar after the Federal Reserve said it would keep interest rates near zero while the U.K. is moving closer to raising borrowing costs.

    [...]

    The pound strengthened 1.8 percent in the past month, the best performer among 10 developed-nation currencies tracked by Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes. The euro slipped 0.4 percent, while the dollar gained 0.3 percent.
    [Bloomberg]

    Sterling's performance has even silenced Mark Senior.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    At least we're not going out on penalties.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Actually my prediction for this match was it to be a draw until injury time, when Luis Suarez dives and wins a penalty, whilst simultaneously biting Gary Cahill and hurling racial epithets at Danny Welbeck.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,336
    SeanT said:

    Carnyx said:

    SeanT said:

    ToryJim said:

    DavidL said:

    It is all on the next goal. Next one for Uruguay and it is all over. I fear that is the most likely but if England get one back I would still expect them to win.

    To be honest if we are fated to lose I'd rather be drubbed as at least then you can't blame missed chances, bad decisions etc

    We're just a very mediocre team, with an average manager. Not one player is anywhere near world class (Rooney was, but no longer). Qualifying then going out in the first round is about right.

    No tears need be shed.
    I disagree completely. I am really hoping that England win the World Cup. ...
    Hah. Yes. The Union is saved, as England get tonked.
    Those of us who don't like footie can play spot the activist:

    http://wingsoverscotland.com/the-jim-murphy-fan-club/

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Uruguay: about the same population as Wales. And the smallest population of any country in the tournament.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030
    Carnyx said:

    SeanT said:

    Carnyx said:

    SeanT said:

    ToryJim said:

    DavidL said:

    It is all on the next goal. Next one for Uruguay and it is all over. I fear that is the most likely but if England get one back I would still expect them to win.

    To be honest if we are fated to lose I'd rather be drubbed as at least then you can't blame missed chances, bad decisions etc

    We're just a very mediocre team, with an average manager. Not one player is anywhere near world class (Rooney was, but no longer). Qualifying then going out in the first round is about right.

    No tears need be shed.
    I disagree completely. I am really hoping that England win the World Cup. ...
    Hah. Yes. The Union is saved, as England get tonked.
    Those of us who don't like footie can play spot the activist:

    http://wingsoverscotland.com/the-jim-murphy-fan-club/

    Wow. Some people really need to get a life. I am sure a similar sort of thing could be done for almost any political campaign ever.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030
    GOOOAALLLLL
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    AndyJS said:

    Uruguay: about the same population as Wales. And the smallest population of any country in the tournament.

    Apparently nearly 60% of Uruguayan farming is sheep.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Goal for England.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Right, who said Rooney and Johnson were crap.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Yes yes yes yes yes.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514

    Right, who said Rooney and Johnson were crap.

    I said Rooney was crap.

    There are three wise men with camels riding through Warwickshire/
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,336
    RobD said:

    Carnyx said:

    SeanT said:

    Carnyx said:

    SeanT said:

    ToryJim said:

    DavidL said:

    It is all on the next goal. Next one for Uruguay and it is all over. I fear that is the most likely but if England get one back I would still expect them to win.

    To be honest if we are fated to lose I'd rather be drubbed as at least then you can't blame missed chances, bad decisions etc

    We're just a very mediocre team, with an average manager. Not one player is anywhere near world class (Rooney was, but no longer). Qualifying then going out in the first round is about right.

    No tears need be shed.
    I disagree completely. I am really hoping that England win the World Cup. ...
    Hah. Yes. The Union is saved, as England get tonked.
    Those of us who don't like footie can play spot the activist:

    http://wingsoverscotland.com/the-jim-murphy-fan-club/

    Wow. Some people really need to get a life. I am sure a similar sort of thing could be done for almost any political campaign ever.
    I don't know enough about enough parties to judge the truth of that statement (though doubt it for, e.g., Gladstone's Midlothian campaign [ironic joke]). But yes, it is an odd way to spend a day even if they like ice creams. And it does poses some interesting questions about whether some people think other people's heads zip up the back, to use the Glaswegian idiom, when it is so easily demonstrated by citizen journalism [substitute 'cybernattery' if you are Lord Foulkes or Better Together]..

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Uruguay collapsing like the Carthaginians at Zama
  • antifrank1antifrank1 Posts: 81
    ToryJim said:

    AndyJS said:

    Uruguay: about the same population as Wales. And the smallest population of any country in the tournament.

    Apparently nearly 60% of Uruguayan farming is sheep.
    But Fray Bentos is beef?
This discussion has been closed.