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The Biden era begins with his predecessor boycotting the ceremonies – politicalbetting.com

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  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,384
    Leon said:

    Actually reinforces my argument. Ike stood up to China. With actual guns. And got at least a decent score draw, arguably a narrow win (given the history of the Koreas ever since)

    OK. It is a tiny bit harder when China is the predominant power, economically, and America is secondary and weaker, but Trump managed to combine the worst aspects of appeasement and hostility in one. Derrrrr.
    God, I hate to agree with you, but you're spot on in your last line.

    Trump folded on China tariffs. He tore down the institutional framework meant to constrain China (the TPP), and he refused to sail a carrier group down the Taiwan strait when he was asked.

    He antagonised China, and abetted its rise. And because he never stood up over things that mattered, he jeopardized both Hong Kong and Taiwan.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Endillion said:

    Biden is on record as saying that voting for Trump disqualifies you from being black.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/video/2020/may/22/joe-biden-charlamagne-you-aint-black-trump-video

    "Both sides" are very much at this one, and he at least should really know better.

    Totally embarrassing by Biden and, more importantly, it somewhat hamstrung his approach to the BLM riots
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Please don’t activate the Charles.
    I quite liked the “100 year stop over in Wales” on the website
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,782
    rcs1000 said:

    I tend to be very anti-woke, but you are absolutely spot on that the US has a very different experience of race to the UK. And segregation is much more recent than people think.

    Martin Luther King was not shot in the distant past; he was shot in 1968. There were seats on buses reserved for whites in the lifetimes of most PBers. And as recently as the 1980s, elite US universities and schools had official "caps" on the number of African America, Jewish and Asian American students they accepted.


    America, right now, has a cap on Asian Americans in Ivy League universities (and maybe others, I dunno) for fear that high IQ east Asians will crowd out white and blacks. Sorry, Blacks.

    https://time.com/5546463/harvard-admissions-trial-asian-american-students/

    https://theedge.com.hk/ivy-league-sat-scores-for-asians-chinese-and-whites/



    https://www.theguardian.com/education/2018/oct/18/harvard-affirmative-action-trial-asian-american-students
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,106

    Because I've seen what you look like.

    You couldn't be any more white if your name was Whitey McWhiteface.
    Is that the next one?

    Sadly a reflection that politicalbetting is not immune to ridiculous
    It was the same on the night that the capital was stormed. Leon seems incapable of discussing any major political event without turning toward his ignorant cod racism.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    AV referendum?
    tweeter says that one is excluded as couldn't get enough demographic data.

    Als
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,820
    rcs1000 said:

    I tend to be very anti-woke, but you are absolutely spot on that the US has a very different experience of race to the UK. And segregation is much more recent than people think.

    Martin Luther King was not shot in the distant past; he was shot in 1968. There were seats on buses reserved for whites in the lifetimes of most PBers. And as recently as the 1980s, elite US universities and schools had official "caps" on the number of African America, Jewish and Asian American students they accepted.

    Yes, and if Harris has experienced these things then black America finally has a representative at the top of government. It really was such a horrific life for so many black people who we wouldn't consider old and the parents of people we would consider young. Harris, more than Obama IMO given the issues America is facing, has got a huge weight on her shoulders. I hope she's up to the task.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    TimT said:

    Also sounds like a totally bollocks one. The average 66-year old? What is that when it comes to binary outcomes?
    I presume it is based on who the majority of the age group the person was in at each vote voted for.

    So in 1997 thr majority of 42 year olds voted for Blair. Last year the majoriry o 65 year olds voted for Boris etc.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,782
    rcs1000 said:

    God, I hate to agree with you, but you're spot on in your last line.

    Trump folded on China tariffs. He tore down the institutional framework meant to constrain China (the TPP), and he refused to sail a carrier group down the Taiwan strait when he was asked.

    He antagonised China, and abetted its rise. And because he never stood up over things that mattered, he jeopardized both Hong Kong and Taiwan.
    The most catastrophic leader in the history of the democratic Western World? I cannot think of a rival. And he came at the worst time, when America was already tipped towards swift relative decline. Which he speedened.

    My worry is that Biden/Harris are almost exactly the wrong team to slow this evolution (they cannot reverse it). I fiercely hope I am wrong.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    MrEd said:

    Totally embarrassing by Biden and, more importantly, it somewhat hamstrung his approach to the BLM riots
    One of the key reasons he lost the election.
  • Alistair said:

    I presume it is based on who the majority of the age group the person was in at each vote voted for.

    So in 1997 thr majority of 42 year olds voted for Blair. Last year the majoriry o 65 year olds voted for Boris etc.
    Probably pluralities, but yes, the more I think about it, the more plausible it seems to me. 33 carefully chosen because it avoids 2005
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Ruby Bridges is only 66 years old.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,480
    Alistair said:

    Why?
    Well, actually I was just about to post an edit to say that the "If they voted like the majority of their age group" is actually fair enough.

    But suppose you vote randomly and the elections have been 50/50 then it's unlikely that as a 33 year old you'd have managed to not be with the winning side. It's even more unlikely that a 66 year old would have managed to avoid disappointment.

    So it's clear that the claim is questionable. Now consider correlations - this raises the chance that a voter might have been on the winning side hugely if they've always voted one way and that side has always won. Now we know that voters pretty much vote one way, but we certainly know that one side hasn't always won.

    So I suspect you will find a lot of 33 year olds that have never voted for the winning side (my guess would be around 40% - just because the Tories have won every election since 2010), but you'll find it quite hard to find 66 year olds that have always been celebrating on election night - I'd be a seller at 5%.
  • Evening, all.

    Hopefully, we've seen the last of Trump. But who knows, he may go back to being a reality TV "personality"!

    In other news, Mum got her first dose of the AZ vaccine this evening, though the surgery only gave her five hours' notice. Anyway, it was all over in about 5 minutes. Three months' wait for the second dose though.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,782
    Five countries recording four figure daily deaths. The usuals: USA, UK, Mexico, Brazil, Germany

    The worry must be the surge in cases worldwide. eg Spain: 40,000 cases and rising. That speaks of many deaths to come

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
  • eekeek Posts: 29,735
    Omnium said:

    Not true, but if you like not true things then great.

    Fairly easy to see why.
    Omnium said:

    Not true, but if you like not true things then great.

    Fairly easy to see why.
    It’s true

    2006 18
    2010 first election
    2015 second election
    2016 referendum
    2017 election
    2019 election

    It said polls not elections
  • Leon said:

    The most catastrophic leader in the history of the democratic Western World? I cannot think of a rival. And he came at the worst time, when America was already tipped towards swift relative decline. Which he speedened.

    My worry is that Biden/Harris are almost exactly the wrong team to slow this evolution (they cannot reverse it). I fiercely hope I am wrong.
    With respect to Trumpsky, agree completely. Which is precisely the reason that Putin sponsored his rise.

    As for Biden, think that Joe Biden, product of Scranton AND Wilmington - in other words, manufacturing AND free trade - is perhaps uniquely poised to make serious progress with & on China. Just perhaps.
  • Alistair said:

    I presume it is based on who the majority of the age group the person was in at each vote voted for.

    So in 1997 thr majority of 42 year olds voted for Blair. Last year the majoriry o 65 year olds voted for Boris etc.
    Did a majority of 32 year olds really vote for Thatcher?
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    Alistair said:

    I presume it is based on who the majority of the age group the person was in at each vote voted for.

    So in 1997 thr majority of 42 year olds voted for Blair. Last year the majoriry o 65 year olds voted for Boris etc.
    So, what it is say is that:

    In 1974, the majority of 20-year-olds voted Labour
    In 1974, a small majority of 20-year-olds voted Labour again
    In 1979, the majority of 25-year-olds voted Conservative
    In 1983, the majority of 29-year-olds voted Conservative
    In 1987, the majority of 33-year-olds voted Conservative
    In 1992, the majority of 38-year-olds voted Conservative
    In 1997, the majority of 43-year-olds voted Labour
    In 2001, the majority of 47-year-olds voted Labour
    In 2005, the majority of 51-year-olds voted Labour
    In 2010, the majority of 56-year-olds voted Conservative/Lib
    In 2015, the majority of 61-year-olds voted Conservative
    In 2017, the majority of 63-year-olds voted Conservative
    In 2019, the majority of 65-year-olds voted Conservative

    I guess someone could check that. It may indeed be correct (although both 1979 and 1992 look very iffy to me), but even if it is, it tells you nothing really, except perhaps that baby-boomers were an outsize group in the population and bothered to vote.
  • kle4 said:
    And the USA still haven’t had a female head of state, while we have had a queen for more than 50% of its existence.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    TimT said:

    So, what it is say is that:

    In 1974, the majority of 20-year-olds voted Labour
    In 1974, a small majority of 20-year-olds voted Labour again
    In 1979, the majority of 25-year-olds voted Conservative
    In 1983, the majority of 29-year-olds voted Conservative
    In 1987, the majority of 33-year-olds voted Conservative
    In 1992, the majority of 38-year-olds voted Conservative
    In 1997, the majority of 43-year-olds voted Labour
    In 2001, the majority of 47-year-olds voted Labour
    In 2005, the majority of 51-year-olds voted Labour
    In 2010, the majority of 56-year-olds voted Conservative/Lib
    In 2015, the majority of 61-year-olds voted Conservative
    In 2017, the majority of 63-year-olds voted Conservative
    In 2019, the majority of 65-year-olds voted Conservative

    I guess someone could check that. It may indeed be correct (although both 1979 and 1992 look very iffy to me), but even if it is, it tells you nothing really, except perhaps that baby-boomers were an outsize group in the population and bothered to vote.
    https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/how-britain-voted-1992

    25-24 and 35-44 went Con.
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,962
    MrEd said:

    One thing that gets missed over here is that, because of the race laws in the US, people who may be 1/8 or 1/16 Black are actually considered part of the Black community as they were subject to the same laws.
    Is this not the point that Leon is trying to make. In this country, we do not define people as "black" anyway - do we? Not really! -especially if only one sixteenth of their ancestors were African.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    ClippP said:

    Is this not the point that Leon is trying to make. In this country, we do not define people as "black" anyway - do we? Not really! -especially if only one sixteenth of their ancestors were African.
    Have to admit I haven't followed the whole debate from Leon vs Anyone Else but was just pointing out how it's perceived in the States. My wife is black (as I have said on here a few times) but she has relatives that are whiter than I am but who are still considered black because they suffered the same prejudices as the black community because their blood was deemed to be "tainted" by the "stain" of blackness. That's why all the points disagreeing about Obama being the first Black President and the fact his mother was white missed the point.

    And, yes, we have a different view over here because we never had the same laws as in the US
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Alistair said:

    One of the key reasons he lost the election.
    Might have had something to do though with why more black males voted for Trump this time round. Just a thought.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,714
    rcs1000 said:

    God, I hate to agree with you, but you're spot on in your last line.

    Trump folded on China tariffs. He tore down the institutional framework meant to constrain China (the TPP), and he refused to sail a carrier group down the Taiwan strait when he was asked.

    He antagonised China, and abetted its rise. And because he never stood up over things that mattered, he jeopardized both Hong Kong and Taiwan.
    I've wittered on about it before, but Taiwan is strategically critical to any hope of slowing Chinese hegemony.
    It's a small, otherwise insignificant island, but holds about half of the world's advanced semiconductor manufacturing - a critical area of technology in which China still lags by around a decade.
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