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Is Donald Trump the electoral behemoth his congressional allies think he is? – politicalbetting.com

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  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,266
    kle4 said:

    I'm sure a service can find a way. Might as well have officially sanctioned echo chambers for Democrats and Republicans.
    The thing about these 'no moderation' platforms is not that they become echo-chambers but tools to incite violence and insurrection.

    Rightly, Trump could not be allowed to continue to spread lies to millions of followers in Twitter, many of whom are clearly not intelligent enough to differentiate between the truth, opinion, and outright lies.
  • English degrees were the Media Studies of their day when first introduced. Critics said it was ludicrous to give degrees for leisure activities like reading plays and novels.
    The creative arts employ 2.3 million people in Britain. Or did before the pandemic.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    edited January 2021
    HYUFD said:

    You are a diehard Democrat, you will never be convinced
    Convinced of what? That Giuliani did NOT help incite the Trumpsky Putsch? You got that right, pal.

    And has nothing to do with being a "diehard Democrat" which I am not (not diehard anyway).

    It has to do with being a diehard American. Something Trumpsky will NEVER understand, and that you hero Rudi abandoned long ago.

    BTW, do you still think Mike Pence is a shoo-in for the 2024 Republican nomination, thanks to his support from Trumpsky loyalists?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    No it isn't, but the Cabinet does reflect the elected President. If something happens to the elected President and Veep simultaneously then someone else from the Cabinet ought to be able to continue with the elected President's agenda until the next election.
    So you’d be ok with the Pm being a lord not a MP?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,115
    FF43 said:

    Because authors with a (in some cases tenuous) connection with Scotland are the only essential writers in the English language. In the opinion of the Scottish Government and SQA. AIUI.
    Parochial doesn’t come close to describing it. Pig ignorant is perhaps closer.
  • TresTres Posts: 2,811

    I have read her article and a lot of the other stuff written by her and around it. 'Not banning' is bullshit. She advocates not teaching it which is just as bad. She says children 'should not be exposed to it' even with explanation.

    Your defence is.. well indefensible and based on hoping no one else has bothered to actually research this. You are pretty bloody shameful.
    And I see you are perfectly prepared to misrepresent her arguments. I doubt we shall agree.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    edited January 2021
    Carnyx said:

    What I remember is ara mee bebdeekas; (the double ee being the eta). That not right? (Singular, of course. (Can'r work out how to write it in Attic orthography on this thing.)
    Yes, that would be the perfect of βδέω (one of very many words for the same thing). I think only its present tense is classical, but that is picking a nit too far. ἆρα μή generally expects a negative answer though.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,143

    Guiliani did go after the Mob in NY, in a big way - he definitely did lead that charge, which was personally dangerous.

    It is one of the ironies of what he has become, that a part of that was rooting out corruption in the NYPD. Who were, in part, working for/with the Mob.

    He also, as Mayor, pushed through and kept the corruption down, in a lot of projects that renewed much of the public spaces in NY.

    I think it fair to say that Guiliani is an example of someone who has ended dragged down in the whirlpool of the madness centred on Donald Trump. And he *chose* to head for the centre of it. Others did not - see the Lincoln Project etc.

    Let's not pretend Giuliani didn't do a great job as NY mayor just because he's now swum right to the bottom of the sewer with Trump: he did.

    In fact, he was so good his policies were imitated around the world and he became Time's person of the year for his display of leadership.

    The real question is: what happened since then? And why is he so overwhelmingly loyal to Trump?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,087
    edited January 2021


    Originally, antibody prevalence reached about 6% by July and then decayed to 4.4% 12 weeks later.
    They now have reached about 6.9%, I think.

    That 20% figure (and over 50% in some areas) looks surprisingly high. As it should depress R by a factor of 2 in the areas at that sort of level, it does point to extremely high R0. If true.

    There’s a lot of “may...” in that article, and I’d suggest an 18 day lag between infection and death is a bit rapid. That’s an average of 13 days from symptoms to death, which is quicker than I’d be comfortable having in a model.

    It’s rather different from the UCL model referred to - considerably different in magnitude, from what I can see. (Barking and Dagenham, for example, appears to have had less than half the infections in the UCL model than this one).

    I think what you have here is the "publish the story about the research with the shouty numbers".

    I've seen various papers making various estimates. They share a common characteristic - no 2 agree on the numbers. Which strongly suggest to me that we don't know. Yet.

    What was the number found in that town in Italy where they tested everyone, not long after the first wave went completely out of control there?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Nowadays all these seem a bit sub-Benny Hill, and I'd not want to risk their use.
    He died in 2001 having retired in 1988, so from a different era
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,353

    ‘Oi Wolfgang, my mum says you’re a competent composer, not sure myself.’
    When it comes to music, a Bach is undoubtedly better than Mozart’s bit.

    Good night.
  • Scott_xP said:
    Whilst I have no sympathy for those who voted against confirmation, surely if it is going to be considered unconstitutional to do so then the mechanism should not be in the constitution.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,143
    Charles said:

    My post was a gentle jibe @TrèsDifficile for assigning blame to Brexit when the article was clearly about Covid
    Sure, and I was replying to Mexican Pete who seemed to think you were putting up chaff to distract from Brexit.
  • Let's not pretend Giuliani didn't do a great job as NY mayor just because he's now swum right to the bottom of the sewer with Trump: he did.

    In fact, he was so good his policies were imitated around the world and he became Time's person of the year for his display of leadership.

    The real question is: what happened since then? And why is he so overwhelmingly loyal to Trump?
    Remember Donald Trump as a property developer played a large role in rebuilding New York.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    eek said:

    It is if you are in the UK and used to have significant EU customers who hate paperwork and have a competitor who doesn't require the same paperwork.
    Do you cut your price or improve your product offering
  • Tres said:

    And I see you are perfectly prepared to misrepresent her arguments. I doubt we shall agree.
    Oh yes, I am misrepresenting her arguments by... quoting her extensively. Try again.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    Yes, that would be the perfect of βδέω (one of very many words for the same thing). I think only its present tense is classical, but that is picking a nit too far. ἆρα μή generally expects a negative answer though.
    Well, who would admit to it, even wearing a chiton? Terriby barbaric, even Oriental.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,423
    Scott_xP said:
    I feel like this one is farmore fraught than the other. Members of closing ranks, and there are a lot of them, not all of whom will have been Hawley and Cruz.
  • ydoethur said:

    When it comes to music, a Bach is undoubtedly better than Mozart’s bit.

    Good night.

    Vienna or Salzburg?
  • Competent was a compliment.
    Would you say that someone saying Shakes was "competent" was giving the Bard a compliment?

    At best a back-handed one!
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,730

    Oh yes, I am misrepresenting her arguments by... quoting her extensively. Try again.
    No point trying to argue with the apostles of right think richard they are more close minded than the puritans
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,050
    ydoethur said:

    When it comes to music, a Bach is undoubtedly better than Mozart’s bit.

    Good night.

    Finally got to see Bill & Ted 3

    Note that while Bach makes it to Heaven in Bogus Journey, Mozart ends up in Hell...
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,087

    Whilst I have no sympathy for those who voted against confirmation, surely if it is going to be considered unconstitutional to do so then the mechanism should not be in the constitution.
    I think it fair too say that they misused a piece of the constitution abominably.

    It is hard, perhaps impossible, to write a constitution so that it is proof against human malevolence.

    The right to protest about a corrupt election is a fair one - and like the many other laws and rights, it can be turned into a weapon.

    This was what happened - a right and a privilege was turned into a weapon against the constitution itself. The *use of the right*, not the right itself, was a flagrant and malevolent attack on democracy.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,879

    Convinced of what? That Giuliani did NOT help incite the Trumpsky Putsch? You got that right, pal.

    And has nothing to do with being a "diehard Democrat" which I am not (not diehard anyway).

    It has to do with being a diehard American. Something Trumpsky will NEVER understand, and that you hero Rudi abandoned long ago.

    BTW, do you still think Mike Pence is a shoo-in for the 2024 Republican nomination, thanks to his support from Trumpsky loyalists?
    At this point I think the 2024 GOP nomination will be between Pence and Cruz
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,050

    Whilst I have no sympathy for those who voted against confirmation, surely if it is going to be considered unconstitutional to do so then the mechanism should not be in the constitution.

    Depends on the wording of the amendment, surely?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,204
    Alex Jones vs Q is one of the weirder subplots on the batshit right
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,266
    DavidL said:

    Parochial doesn’t come close to describing it. Pig ignorant is perhaps closer.
    Sort of related, a neighbour's daughter got an A in A level English Lit without reading any of the set texts - she just read the study guides apparently.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,423

    Quoting a wee Galloway acolyte with an Israeli flag in his profile is it? Let’s hope George’s Palestinian pals don’t find out from where his new support is drawn.
    Odd to play the man not the ball - I'm none the wiser what powers exist here and therefore which outrage monger, for or against, to believe.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,132
    Surely by signing up to the new T and C for WhatsApp the GPDR is satisfied.

    Not that I have read the new T and C...
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,050
    kle4 said:

    I feel like this one is farmore fraught than the other. Members of closing ranks, and there are a lot of them, not all of whom will have been Hawley and Cruz.

    Yeah, but people are going to have to vote and those votes will be recorded for the next campaign...
  • Let's not pretend Giuliani didn't do a great job as NY mayor just because he's now swum right to the bottom of the sewer with Trump: he did.

    In fact, he was so good his policies were imitated around the world and he became Time's person of the year for his display of leadership.

    The real question is: what happened since then? And why is he so overwhelmingly loyal to Trump?
    My argument is that his "greatness" was greatly overrated. Though it's true that even New Yorkers who hated and still hate his guts do giving him grudging credit.

    But he was still overrated, mostly because I think he was - at least back then - a superb communicator. Similar to Boris Johnson.

    And fact that he was overrated is what makes his self-induced defenestration all the more start and startling.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,423
    Pulpstar said:

    Alex Jones vs Q is one of the weirder subplots on the batshit right

    Odd to think what may be behind it. Jones has definitely believed, or purported to believe conspiracies just as stupid and outlandish, so why not here? Competition?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,143

    I have read her article and a lot of the other stuff written by her and around it. 'Not banning' is bullshit. She advocates not teaching it which is just as bad. She says children 'should not be exposed to it' even with explanation.

    Your defence is.. well indefensible and based on hoping no one else has bothered to actually research this. You are pretty bloody shameful.
    The tide will eventually turn against this ludicrous Woke shit.

    People are finally onto them.
  • Scott_xP said:

    Depends on the wording of the amendment, surely?
    Yep I suppose so. It is just one of those things that has been bothering me for a few days. Why do they have a system that allows Congress to block the election? It isn't like a States rights thing - which I do understand and appreciate - because in this case it is the States themselves who have submitted the results. All they need to do is tally them.

    I remain unconvinced by this particular bit of constitutional arcana
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,087
    Foxy said:

    Surely by signing up to the new T and C for WhatsApp the GPDR is satisfied.

    Not that I have read the new T and C...

    I would be concerned with what a billion dollars worth of lawyers would do to such protections. Or a billion dollars worth of politicians.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,143

    Remember Donald Trump as a property developer played a large role in rebuilding New York.
    Good point.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,266
    HYUFD said:

    At this point I think the 2024 GOP nomination will be between Pence and Cruz
    Assuming Trump can avoid a conviction I think it's quite likely he'll run as a 'Patriot Party' (or similar candidate in 2024. If Trump *is* convicted, one of his children might attempt it.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    Tres said:

    Would be have been expelled if he was caught with a copy of Romeo & Juliet is his locker?
    Could be. It’s pretty filthy in places.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,050

    Yep I suppose so. It is just one of those things that has been bothering me for a few days. Why do they have a system that allows Congress to block the election? It isn't like a States rights thing - which I do understand and appreciate - because in this case it is the States themselves who have submitted the results. All they need to do is tally them.

    I remain unconvinced by this particular bit of constitutional arcana

    At what point in time does it date from? It might have made sense when there were fewer than 50 States in the Union?
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,730
    Foxy said:

    Surely by signing up to the new T and C for WhatsApp the GPDR is satisfied.

    Not that I have read the new T and C...

    It will be likely sign the new T and C which fulfils the consent angle or stop using whatsapp. Facebook recently pulled this move with their oculus hardware and required a facebook account be linked. Even people who bought their kit before this was a requirement have to link to a facebook account by the end of 2023
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,143
    Foxy said:

    Surely by signing up to the new T and C for WhatsApp the GPDR is satisfied.

    Not that I have read the new T and C...

    No-one has.

    Like me they'll have just clicked "yes" to get rid of the annoying message.
  • HYUFD said:

    At this point I think the 2024 GOP nomination will be between Pence and Cruz
    So Pence is no longer inevitable - has something changed?

    As for Cruz, he may run for President just to avoid having to run for re-election as US Senator. Certainly will NOT be nominee, unless the Republican Party has been whittled down to a Trumpskyist rump.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,690

    Would you say that someone saying Shakes was "competent" was giving the Bard a compliment?

    At best a back-handed one!
    I would just call it a recognition of his skills although personally I've never been tempted to spend a lot of time listening to his oeuvre. I do think comparisons to Mozart and Shakespeare are a little bit of a stretch.

    Anyway, how about I call him a talented songwriter - I don't want to be ungenerous.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    edited January 2021
    Perhaps all those bright people around Sir "Round the Clock Vaccinations" can give Welsh Mark some help ?

    Because a Labour/LibDem fuck-up in the Welsh vaccines is going to get noticed.

    I don't know who is going to win the Great Covid Vaccination Run.

    Nicola is the most competent, but probably has the hardest job given the scattered nature of the Scottish population. Boris looks as though he has understood this is important & could give him an opportunity to use his favourite word, "world-beating". And Arlene has a steeliness & grit about her, as befits the DUP.

    So, I am pretty sure I know who going to trail in fourth in a field of four.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,087

    So Pence is no longer inevitable - has something changed?

    As for Cruz, he may run for President just to avoid having to run for re-election as US Senator. Certainly will NOT be nominee, unless the Republican Party has been whittled down to a Trumpskyist rump.
    Cruz is hated by people *in* politics to a remarkable degree.

    Pence is widely seen as an empty vessel.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,423
    Not sure it is a perfect comparison, but not surprised if it gets mentioned quite a bit.
    https://twitter.com/ProjectLincoln/status/1348370629477724166
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,204
    kle4 said:

    Odd to think what may be behind it. Jones has definitely believed, or purported to believe conspiracies just as stupid and outlandish, so why not here? Competition?
    The Q lot are even madder than he is so perhaps it's jealousy
  • Perhaps all those bright people around Sir "Round the Clock Vaccinations" can give Welsh Mark some help ?

    Because a Labour/LibDem fuck-up in the Welsh vaccines is going to get noticed.

    I don't know who is going to win the Great Covid Vaccination Run.

    Nicola is the most competent, but probably has the hardest job given the scattered nature of the Scottish population. Boris looks as though he has understood this is important & could give him an opportunity to use his favourite word, "world-beating". And Arlene has a steeliness & grit about her, as befits the DUP.

    So, I am pretty sure who I know who going to trail in fourth in a field of four.
    Probably still beat the Dutch though....
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,087
    Scott_xP said:

    At what point in time does it date from? It might have made sense when there were fewer than 50 States in the Union?
    An aquaintance with the behaviour in elections in the 18th century in the western world - and indeed much of the 19th - would probably answer your question.

    Many were *staggeringly* corrupt - no secret ballot, bribes openly paid, violence etc...
  • Scott_xP said:

    At what point in time does it date from? It might have made sense when there were fewer than 50 States in the Union?
    True. You bugger now I have to go and start looking it up because you have got me wondering :)
  • Scott_xP said:

    At what point in time does it date from? It might have made sense when there were fewer than 50 States in the Union?
    What if two or more sets of Electoral Votes are submitted from a state (as occurred in 1876). Who in your view should sort THAT out?

    Constitutional law is NOT something you make up on the fly. Except in UK where it's standard practice?
  • Could be. It’s pretty filthy in places.
    'The bawdy hand of the clock holds its prick at noon.'

    You wouldn't get that through before 9pm these days.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/AshaRangappa_/status/1347778514888642561
    If they invoke the 25th wouldn’t that be a cast iron defence (insanity) against all future legal claims?
  • Cruz is hated by people *in* politics to a remarkable degree.

    Pence is widely seen as an empty vessel.
    You are right about Cruz - he's a truly nasty piece of work.

    As for Pence, my nickname for him has been Booblehead for just the reason you cite. However, he certainly looks way less empty today than he did a week ago.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,879
    edited January 2021

    So Pence is no longer inevitable - has something changed?

    As for Cruz, he may run for President just to avoid having to run for re-election as US Senator. Certainly will NOT be nominee, unless the Republican Party has been whittled down to a Trumpskyist rump.
    Much of the GOP primary voting base, indeed on some polling the majority at the moment, is what you refer to as 'a Trumpskyite rump.'

    Pence will be the moderate candidate to Cruz as lead standard of the Trumpite hardcore
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,336

    What if two or more sets of Electoral Votes are submitted from a state (as occurred in 1876). Who in your view should sort THAT out?

    Constitutional law is NOT something you make up on the fly. Except in UK where it's standard practice?
    Implying the constitution in the US is not open to interpretation.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,204
    The house should impeach as soon as it's able and send the docs to McConnel immediately. Waiting a hundred days to send the senate docs helps the GOP. Slightly.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,050

    As for Pence, my nickname for him has been Booblehead for just the reason you cite. However, he certainly looks way less empty today than he did a week ago.

    https://twitter.com/ProjectLincoln/status/1348370982914969608
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,143
    I might watch The Matrix trilogy again..

    Yeah, I'm gonna do that.

    Laters.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,060
    edited January 2021

    Could be. It’s pretty filthy in places.
    I cannot find my favourite joke from The Simpsons which was: "It started out like Romeo and Juliet, but ended in tragedy."
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,482

    Forgot to mention Al's (allegedly) pro-Argentine stance, should have added that to make PBers detest him as much as yours truly.

    The canned him as soon as they could without making too much of a spectacle about it.

    Real reason I think Al Haig was a total slimebag, was one incident during the Chosen Reservoir battle during the Korean War. When US Marines and US Army were fighting for their lives, thanks to the astounding incompetence of MacArthur and his entourage, including young suck-up Al Haig.

    Who was dispatched by Mac to the "Frozen Chosen" not to provide any actual assistance, but on a PR exercise to hand out a fistful of medals to the US Army contingent.

    Haig swooped down in his helicopter, fresh as a daisy from his cushy Tokyo billet, down to the mud and snow and misery on the ground. It was December 1950 and the bottom had dropped out of the thermometer. The troops fighting the battle were short of just about everything at that point; their clothing was woefully inadequate, in particular their boots. (My father was there, and froze his feet pretty bad, but kept on marching and fighting; for the rest of his life he had problems with his feet.)

    Anyway, here comes Al Haig, with a nice clean uniform (including nice warm coat and good boots) and proceeds to hand out medals along with pats on the back. Then after a photo-op, gets back in his chopper and flies back to Tokyo, no doubt for a nice hot bath and a change of cloths. Something the guys he left behind hadn't had not enjoyed for weeks or months - and some never would ever again.

    Eyewitnesses say that, after Al Haig went bye bye up in the sky, the Army commander on the ground took the medal that he'd been given - and hurled it into the snow.
    The battle, and the subsequent fighting retreat are an epic, and bloody story.
    Huge admiration for anyone who participated.

    And agreed that MacArthur and Haig were shitbags.
    (Though the former was a remarkable success in administering Japan after the war.)
  • HYUFD said:

    Much of the GOP primary voting base, indeed on some polling the majority at the moment is what you refer to as 'a Trumpskyite rump.'

    Pence will be the moderate candidate to Cruz as lead standard of the Trumpite hardcore
    You do NOT seem to realize that the Trumpsky base is NOT static. It is melting as we type our drivel on here.

    How far down it melts is an open question. Keep in mind, today's polling is a snapshot of the moment NOT a predictor of the future.

    That's polling 101, right?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,453

    Indeed. Competent songwriter, not a good singer. Nasal affected drawl pretty much kills most songs he peformed for me. Somehow puts one in mind of Ian Duncan Smith's vocals at the dispatch box.
    My wife quite likes Dylan (she once stayed at his place, when she was a music producer in Nashville). I think he is the singing chain-saw.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,855
    DavidL said:

    Parochial doesn’t come close to describing it. Pig ignorant is perhaps closer.
    The Scottish Government / SQA approach to the English curriculum is illiterate, yes. By all means pick pieces from Scottish literature that deserve their place on the curriculum as some of the best writing anywhere, but don't exclude wonderful writing from England, Ireland, the Americas, India and elsewhere that define the English language, simply because they don't tick a box labelled "Scotland".
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,080

    I think what you have here is the "publish the story about the research with the shouty numbers".

    I've seen various papers making various estimates. They share a common characteristic - no 2 agree on the numbers. Which strongly suggest to me that we don't know. Yet.

    What was the number found in that town in Italy where they tested everyone, not long after the first wave went completely out of control there?
    Bergamo reckoned, when I visited in September, that about a third of is residents had had the virus during the spring.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,423
    Scott_xP said:
    Woke liberals aren't able to like MMA?
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331

    'The bawdy hand of the clock holds its prick at noon.'

    You wouldn't get that through before 9pm these days.
    ‘Oh that she were an open arse and thou a poperin pear’ doesn’t actually require too much annotation.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,204

    What if two or more sets of Electoral Votes are submitted from a state (as occurred in 1876). Who in your view should sort THAT out?

    Constitutional law is NOT something you make up on the fly. Except in UK where it's standard practice?
    The inability of the US to make even minor changes to it's constitution with the almost impossible current conditions is a real weak point.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    You overrate Rudi. And have never heard of Fiorello La Guardia? Who was in fact the greatest mayor of the city of New York. And NEVER disgraced his city, country and himself the way your hero has.

    Do NOT expect to be flying into "Giuliani Airport" anytime soon!

    As for his "condemnation" what a sick joke! He WOULD say that now, as he is definitely deserving of disbarment.

    He will go down in history, not as the Hero of 2001 but as one of the Scumbuckets of 2020.
    TBF I don’t expect to be flying into “La Guardia Airport” anytime soon!
  • Sort of related, a neighbour's daughter got an A in A level English Lit without reading any of the set texts - she just read the study guides apparently.
    At a lower level, I got an A in O-level English Lit despite not having *finished* any of the set texts. My success was partly due to our new and incredibly posh teacher whose flowery, descriptive phrases stuck in my working class head to be regurgitated onto the exam paper without fully understanding them.

  • Originally, antibody prevalence reached about 6% by July and then decayed to 4.4% 12 weeks later.
    They now have reached about 6.9%, I think.

    That 20% figure (and over 50% in some areas) looks surprisingly high. As it should depress R by a factor of 2 in the areas at that sort of level, it does point to extremely high R0. If true.

    There’s a lot of “may...” in that article, and I’d suggest an 18 day lag between infection and death is a bit rapid. That’s an average of 13 days from symptoms to death, which is quicker than I’d be comfortable having in a model.

    It’s rather different from the UCL model referred to - considerably different in magnitude, from what I can see. (Barking and Dagenham, for example, appears to have had less than half the infections in the UCL model than this one).

    Yes, my impression is that 20% is a bit high. My brother asked me my guess just a couple of days ago and I said 15%, with 20% at the very top of my estimated range.

    I do think we've been underestimating R0 from the start.

    --AS
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    FF43 said:

    The Scottish Government / SQA approach to the English curriculum is illiterate, yes. By all means pick pieces from Scottish literature that deserve their place on the curriculum as some of the best writing anywhere, but don't exclude wonderful writing from England, Ireland, the Americas, India and elsewhere that define the English language, simply because they don't tick a box labelled "Scotland".
    Hang on - aren't they simply insisting that SOME Scots literature is taught? Not that all has to be?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,423

    I cannot find my favourite joke from The Simpsons which was: "It started out like Romeo and Juliet, but ended in tragedy."
    The internet has your back - S3E23


  • Nigelb said:

    The battle, and the subsequent fighting retreat are an epic, and bloody story.
    Huge admiration for anyone who participated.

    And agreed that MacArthur and Haig were shitbags.
    (Though the former was a remarkable success in administering Japan after the war.)
    MacArthur was one of those people whose highs were REALLY high, and his lows were REALLY low. Never mediocre.

    My grandfather, a rocked-ribbed PA Republican, was a BIG fan. So was my dad UNTIL the Chosen Reservoir.

    Note that my Daddy Dearest was also at Inchon, which was perhaps Mac's greatest moment, militarily at least. Hard to imagine anyone else (at the time anyway) pulling it off. OR even being allowed to try.

    BUT when the shit hit the fan at the Chosen Reservoir, the US Marine Corps to a man decided that Mac was their enemy. And blamed & hated HIM way more than they blamed or hated the Chinese. Indeed, my old man didn't have a bad thing to say against the Chinese that did their damnedest to kill him.

    When he got back to the States, he was home on leave the day that Truman fired MacArthur. My grandfather gave him the news, very excited:

    "Did you hear, that son of a bitch Truman just fired MacArthur!"

    To which my Dad replied, "Good! I hope he shoots the bastard!"

    Note that to this day, Douglas MacArthur remains a hate object for the USMC.

    In current political context, is worth noting that observers of ALL stripes thought that the firing of Douglas MacArthur would result in a massive political wave of support for him and his cause of expanding the Korean War. Which strangely enough did NOT happen, despite Mac's famous speech to joint session of Congress.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,423
    edited January 2021
    Scott_xP said:
    Pre-covid I used to assume anyone who bought a balaclava was automatically placed on a government watchlist, on the grounds no one had every used one for legitimate purposes. Same thing with bolt cutters or alternative face covering attire, including Ex-President face masks if you are an adult.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Scott_xP said:
    The officer in question committed suicide -no one seems to be linking it to the events at the Capitol that I have seen,.

    Well, until now

  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    Have to say that Arnie is impressive in the way he speaks

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x_P-0I6sAck
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,359
    edited January 2021
    The above graphs in the headliner are not relevant. The GOP know Trumps record in net outcome terms, he loses them stuff .

    The problem is not that he is a behemoth in context of the wider electorate. Its the GOP electorate that is their problem because he threatens to split it, badly, through cult of personality and thus at its worst condemning the GOP to at least one more full cycle of House, Senate & POTUS defeats. It doesn't matter whether he loses them even a net 5% of the 2020 numbers during the next 5 years, its enough. I suspect with everything about to go on he won't quite be the force they fear but right now, he is a major problem and someone falling off a cliff can still be heard all the way until they hit the rocks.

    As it is, the stories are he is going to go out with plenty of noise. whether is just noise rather than effect is a 50-50. The Trump cultists, however, are rumoured to talking about another throw of the dice on the 18th.




  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,423

    Have to say that Arnie is impressive in the way he speaks

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x_P-0I6sAck

    Whatever one might think of his acting ability there's no denying the man always had screen presence and could deliver some good lines. It's good stuff, albeit I don't know that he needed to shoehorn in a Conan reference to make his point!
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited January 2021
    Pulpstar said:

    The inability of the US to make even minor changes to it's constitution with the almost impossible current conditions is a real weak point.
    By the Early 1800s Madison was lamenting that with the influx of new states it would be impossible to amend the constitution. In particular he was wanting to fix the electoral college.

    Many of the Founding Fathers knew they had fucked up early.
  • It was an interesting Twitter thread earlier on Trump's need to resign. Supposedly he is to make a statement tomorrow. He won't quit. He'll probably step up the grave-digging
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,855
    Carnyx said:

    Hang on - aren't they simply insisting that SOME Scots literature is taught? Not that all has to be?
    They are saying, you must study these Scottish texts - in some cases sort of Scottish and not all of them very good. You are allowed to study other texts for the critical essay, but we aren't especially encouraging you to do so...

    I don't actually have a problem with insisting that SOME Scots literature is taught.
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,359
    The person to look to right now is Joe Biden. Certainly senior GOP types have been leaning on him to get the impeachment knocked on the head or basically can kicked where its symbolic, i.e. Trump is gone anyway

    He might end up buying that and it might make sense. Trump is in diffs more when he leaves than not and an impeachment counts for squat, he is going.

    What Trump really needs though is a pardon and unless he can do it himself, it isn't likely to come.
  • Hmmmm......

    Models featured in the magazine hit back, with Callie Thorpe insisting that 'health is whatever you want to call it'.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9131253/Row-new-plus-size-Cosmopolitan-cover-accused-glamourising-obesity.html
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,371
    edited January 2021
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,418
    edited January 2021
    deleted
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,569
    edited January 2021
    Floater said:

    The officer in question committed suicide -no one seems to be linking it to the events at the Capitol that I have seen,.

    Well, until now

    You need to look harder.

    A Capitol Police officer named Howard Liebengood took his own life on Saturday (Jan. 9), multiple outlets have confirmed. This death makes the second policeman who’s died since last Wednesday’s (Jan. 6) storming of the U.S. Capitol by a violent pro-Trump mob. The first officer to die, Officer Brian Sicknick, occurred the following day of the attack.

    “Capitol Police union confirms officer Howard Liebengood died by suicide yesterday. In statement they say he responded to riots Wed[nesday],” a Fox News reporter tweeted on Sunday (Jan. 10). TMZ added that the now-deceased cop was 51 years old and was with the Capitol Police Department since 2005.

    “He died Saturday while off duty,” the news outlet claims. “Former Capitol Police Chief Terrance Gainer calls Liebengood’s death a ‘line of duty casualty’ ... clearly meaning even if it was a suicide there’s a direct connection to the riot.”


    https://www.revolt.tv/news/2021/1/10/22223597/us-capitol-police-officer-suicide

    Initially announced as an “off-duty” death by the U.S. Capitol Police on Sunday morning, multiple news outlets and former police chief Terrance Gainer confirmed that Howard Liebengood, 51, died by suicide on Saturday.

    Liebengood, a 15-year veteran of the force, “was among those who responded to the rioting at the U.S. Capitol on January 6,” according to a statement released by the USCP union.

    Gainer described Liebengood’s death as a “line of duty casualty” in an interview with CBS News, saying it was no different than the death of fellow officer Brian Sicknick, who died Thursday night from injuries sustained while protecting the Capitol complex.

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/jemimamcevoy/2021/01/10/another-capitol-police-death-officer-dies-by-suicide-after-responding-to-pro-trump-riot/?sh=5d31f2f470dd
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,087
    edited January 2021
    Yokes said:

    The person to look to right now is Joe Biden. Certainly senior GOP types have been leaning on him to get the impeachment knocked on the head or basically can kicked where its symbolic, i.e. Trump is gone anyway

    He might end up buying that and it might make sense. Trump is in diffs more when he leaves than not and an impeachment counts for squat, he is going.

    What Trump really needs though is a pardon and unless he can do it himself, it isn't likely to come.

    I don't see why Biden should intervene on the impeachment - that is up to Congress. Separation of Powers (he can cry out!)

    A pardon would only help him with the Federal cases. The State cases would go ahead. Some of them include banking/fraud charges that could put him in prison for lengths of time used in astronomy.

    My theory on this is that Biden will give the States "first dibs" on prosecuting Trump - this enables him to avoid the pardon issue, while not getting involved in the issue of "persecuting" a predecessor.

    Trump can have his day in Federal court later. It will consist of him turning up in a prison jumpsuit, many years down the line, I think.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,087
    kle4 said:

    Whatever one might think of his acting ability there's no denying the man always had screen presence and could deliver some good lines. It's good stuff, albeit I don't know that he needed to shoehorn in a Conan reference to make his point!
    Part of the reason for his success was *exactly* his self knowledge - his acting ability being a part of that. He had a very, very good sense of which roles would work for him.

    He has also a very good sense of his own legend and knows well which parts resonate in various situations, to his audience.
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