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Is Donald Trump the electoral behemoth his congressional allies think he is? – politicalbetting.com
Is Donald Trump the electoral behemoth his congressional allies think he is? – politicalbetting.com
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Trump's Congressional Allies are all (except probably Cruz in Texas) all in safe Republican seats. They don't need Trump's supporters to win their seats, they need those supporters to ensure they are standing in as Republican candidate in the next election.
I might use that one the next time I'm on a stats training course for work.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-55609903
Compared to Ross Perot (the previous non-standard-politician candidate), well, Perot was a "stable genius" by comparison.
'Statistics are a lot like bikinis, what they reveal is interesting but what they hide is much more fascinating'
Yes, people are slowly clicking that Trumpton is an electoral liability who, in four miserable years, has taken the L on a grand scale.
Sad!
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-55605009
"He* said the UK was now vaccinating more than 200,000 people a day and around a third of all over-80s had received a jab."
*Hancock
Having the most powerful man in the world splurge on Twitter, whatever was his mind for the last 4 years has been really interesting.
His problem is that he motivated his opposition even more and there were more of them.
The challenge for the Republicans is to do the first without the second. It’s not going to be easy. Like it or loathe it it was Trumps enthusiasm for offending the entitled, the worthy and the self indulgent that motivated his own base. Someone who doesn’t “tell it as it is” is going to find that harder. Maybe impossible.
Enjoy your afternoon...
https://threader.app/thread/1347908845281095680
The liberal media tried to banish me and our army of patriots. SAD ! We'll be back and our victory will NEVER be taken away !
@jefftiedrich
Still sulking, Donny ? If I was you and I'd quit town while you're still free.
People ought to have noticed that he wasn't just pricking the balloons of those who deserved it, but everyone else besides. Once you see that, it stops looking like a healthy iconoclasm and starts to appear to be the behaviour of a very unwell man.
https://twitter.com/njdotcom/status/1348271336288899073
I suspect the Senators were largely useful idiots, if for no other reason that they have more to lose and less secure political bases (but could be wrong). But not those in the House.
Most of them understand that, although in absolute terms he won a lot of votes in 2016 and 2020, he drove Democrat turnout just as much. They know it's better to win an election with a 40% turnout than lose one with 70% turnout.
However, they believe (or did until last week) that his endorsement wins primaries and raises money and - still more importantly - that he can destroy careers with a tweet.
That's ripe for reassessment because he can no longer destroy careers with a tweet (obv) and it's probably the case that a Trump endorsement is a mixed blessing for a primary (although we don't yet quite know how Republican supporters' opinion will settle on this - clearly a remarkable number give him the benefit of the doubt for anything).
For political betting purposes it’s been useful, no?
Actually it was a specific chunk of White America, but yes. And that is the problem. They are behaving in the manner of the ethnic parties of Lebanon.
I mean, it was probably a bad call even when it was written, but now it's looking ridiculous.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55609315
We can only hope that the wilder speculation about the leadership of the DoD definitely isn't true. And i wouldn't be wanting to be involved in security in the State Capitals over the next few days.
https://twitter.com/gem_ste/status/1348222750683398147?s=20
I tend to think that Twitter et al are neither pure tech platforms nor “publishers” in the traditional sense - but something in between.
Certainly though they are today under-regulated, and this will need to change.
Other than that, no notes, looks good.
There's a really strange attitude amongst some right-wing men that politics is somehow an exercise in sexual selection. These far-out "displacement" theories, and the use of the word "cuck" is all a part of this monumental weirdness.
People have a right to free speech, not to a right for others to host it for them.
So far my weekly Asda order has been complete
The way America is polarising, if the GOP win the House in the midterms I could picture some extreme Q/GOPers wanting to 'take out' the POTUS and VEEP to 'win back' the Presidency that way.
I would suggest perhaps the Presidential succession should go through the Presidents own Cabinet before it reverts back to the House.
There is much comment about race in US politics, but the level of misogyny is bewildering.
https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/976/cpsprodpb/E1C9/production/_116410875_angeli2-gettyimages-1294935359-1.jpg
There are some very similar moves by the EU and by national governments in Europe and elsewhere.
The decisions on Trump by social media companies (and Apple, Google etc as hosts) need to be seen in this context. Now is a very bad time to appear weak and unconcerned if you're one of these companies - they are certainly moving into a more regulated sphere across the developed world (they get that), but they are scrambling to manage the costs and the risk from fines etc so "we can be trusted to self-regulate to some degree" is a far more important message to get across than it has been at any time in the past.
I don't recall saying that. I said they were advised to prepare for WTO and if they had then any preparations for WTO should be best placed for if we ended up without a deal, or if we did have one. But I always expected disruption and I always said that. I never pretended or claimed it would be easy or without disruption. Nor did I say anything about fault, so no need to put words in my mouth I didn't use.
So the question is - once triggered, does the VP take command immediately subject to a subsequent reversal in Congress, or does the VP only take command once the 2/3 vote is confirmed?
One can see why Pence doesn't want to do it until the last moment under either circumstance - because if Congress reverses or rejects it (as it quite possibly would in the House) then it would probably put him in grave danger for the last few subsequent days of the Presidency.
However, Christie is still very much involved in Republican politics and, although he was never a swivel-eyed true-believer, he had thought carefully about the weather in the GOP and positioned himself close to Trump. He plainly sees zero value in that now. He's betting that Trump is finished and there is no value (and much danger) in continued association.
Some clearer guidance on the sorts of outcomes the algorithms that govern what sorts of content people view are expected to achieve would also be good. As well as a resolution in law to the question of whether they're allowed to ban people whose views management or the community don't like, or if they have to host everyone who's not actively breaking the law.
Personally, I'd add forcing them to essentially get rid of the possibility of posting illegal stuff from behind a veil of anonymity by imposing KYC regulations on the providers, but that one seems more contentious.
Hence Gallowgate's nonsense in suggesting I was arguing preparations would resolve this. They won't. The disruption will occur no matter what.
We're going to have some VERY exciting news for a real media voice for Americans tomorrow. STAY TUNED !
@jefftiedrich
You OK, hun ? You do know even Pence has left you, and you're looking at jail time, right ? Gather up your make-up and your grifter son and head to the airport.
The problem with the tech companies self-regulating is that they are generally awful at doing so. Saying ban Trump but then allowing the Iranians to spew out hatred towards Israel from official accounts just looks optically very bad (and is bad).
Once you recognise that Europe just aren't that into us, the whole trajectory makes perfect sense.
A moderate?