politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Lord Ashcroft’s promised CON-LD battleground polls could ei
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Lord Ashcroft’s promised CON-LD battleground polls could either take the pressure off Clegg or add to it
The 6% share for the Lib Dems in today’s YouGov/Sun poll is the lowest the firm has reported since it began its online operation in 2001. The party was just 1% ahead of the Greens.
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Behind the Greens, low single digits, and the Lib Dems are going to turn into Frazer from Dad's Army
My goodness! The early results of my polling in the Tory/Lib Dem battlefield marginals do look like......
Such a c*** tease is the Lord..
It is one of the reasons why they are considered the Gold Standard.
http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2014/06/isis_take_control_of_1.php#
Its the closest I could find
Famous last words 1.
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/06/11/world/middleeast/isis-control-map.html
This is a better map.
Or the fact that Labour could probably win a couple of these seats if their supporters actually stuck with the party - I predict there will be a seat or two that goes the way the tacticals don't want it to through tactical voting.
Which seats he'll be doing I wonder...
I've taken a smidgen of 5/4 about the Conservatives in St Ives. Interesting the price is that long even though the relative fortunes for the parties have been so different.
Also will be instructive for the fortunes of Kevin Foster who I know personally in Torbay. His seat will be a key test of SW fortunes on the night.
The assumption in the betting markets seems to be that the Lib Dem vote will hold up disproportionately well in the Con-LD marginals and that it will collapse completely in LD-Lab marginals.
We'll get the answer to the first of these with the poll at any rate.
GE2015 will be the LibDems' Singapore!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27814744
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-27815441
http://politicalbookie.wordpress.com/2014/06/12/the-top-five-political-betting-shocks/
I dunno if anyone has any examples of very big priced winners to become president or similar?
If ISIS captures Samara (they are besieging it right now) then Iran will probably give them all the military aid they like and even more.
There are reports that ISIS is close to Baghdad International Airport, so currently the americans are preparing for this:
pic.twitter.com/9i4zjsfrWN
Iraq is currently too disorganised to launch any counteroffensive, they couldn't get a quorum in their parliament to declare a state of emergency, so far they are trying to defend Baghdad and break the siege of Samara.
Tactical voting an personal votes would mean that the Lib Dems would probably hold roughly ten times as many seats as UKIP would with double the national vote share. That is they would make the conversion of votes into seats at least twenty times more efficient.
Thirty seats at 20,000 votes per seat is 600k votes, say another thirty seats with an average 10,000 votes per seat and they would be looking at an average vote of 2,500 in the remaining 570 seats. So the Lib Dems could still hope to hold about half their current seats on a national share of less than 10%.
Equally, if they drop down more equally to an average of 15,000 in the seats they currently hold then they could be left with less than ten seats on a national share of less than 10%.
The fewer votes the Lib Dems take nationally the more important the distribution of those votes locally becomes.
Are there any calls yet for Barry to hand back his Nobel Peace prize?
That's going to go down in history as a perfect example of jumping the gun.
He was very secretive about his machinations but managed to get both continent and country right. Just ended up picking the wrong one of two cardinals.
The LD currently get 1.8 million votes on 6%, for the 20k in 30 seats, 10k in 30 seats and 2,5k in 570 you need 2.925 million votes.
Lay the favourite is probably a decent strategy there.
I wonder if any there are any classics scholars on here? Perhaps one of them could find a suitable example from history to suggest the impending doom facing the LibDems...?
My own rather less historical analysis references a dock-side hooker.....
I wonder whether a dire Ashcroft poll will be enough to shake them out of their stupor?
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dGtQck5wOU5mN1lQSjIydkZRQTNWbFE&usp=sheets_web#gid=0
Just 22 seats where their share was less than 10%.
Here I was thinking it might be listed in actual alphabetical order.
SNP
SLab
Staying SLD
Grn
SCon
abstainers
UKIP
Obviously, the pattern of dispersal varies widely. In Orkney & Shetland (and it may be unique in this respect) the Staying SLD group may be largest. In Inverclyde it has almost all gone SLab or SNP. In Edinburgh it has gone all over the place, especially to Green.
Richard Nabavi - "Having said that, I recently heard some surprising reports of what is happening in what I'd always assumed was a rock-solid English LibDem seat, and which is not on anyone's target list. At the very least it sounded as though the majority will be slashed."
Ominous. UK GE 2015 could turn into a real stunner if totally "safe" LD seats start to tumble.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-27815441
Someone is playing very silly buggers.
Nats 39 seats (+30 seats)
Yikes. That punter who put 400,000 GBP on NO at 1/4 will be feeling a tad nervous
It's possible to see UKIP picking up perhaps as many as 60,000 votes in Cornwall at the next GE and coming third in all six seats.
After the vote went against them there was much weeping and wailing and gnashing of teeth.
Biblical ancient Greek, as glossed by 'The King's English':
“Weeping and wailing and gnashing of teeth” is the awful fate of those consigned to “outer darkness.”
Let’s consider the words more closely:
Weeping/Wailing: The Greek lexicons speak of “bitter crying” and “lamentation.” There is the deep sadness of mourning (e.g. Matthew 2:18) as well as self-recrimination – think of Peter’s weeping following his denials (Matthew 26:75). It is closely connected with the lament “Alas! Alas!” (Revelation 18:15-19). It is the cry of the hopeless (Revelation 5:4) and yet, through the triumph of Jesus, His people will be brought to the place where we “weep not!” There will be no such weeping in the new heavens and new earth (Isaiah 65:19). However the “outer darkness” is a place of continual weeping and wailing. And also gnashing of teeth…
Gnashing of teeth: This is consistently a description of anger in Scripture. The miserable comforters “gnash their teeth” at righteous Job. The wicked gnash their teeth at the righteous one of Psalm 35 (v15). They gnash their teeth at Stephen before stoning him (Acts 7:54). Outer darkness is a place of violent fury.
Put these two terms together and you get a grotesque portrait of humanity. Hell is self-pitying, self-righteous anger, stretching on into eternity. The damned cry bitter tears and grind their teeth in fury. Sullen self-pity and furious self-righteousness grow in the outer darkness.
They don't deserve it. They have given the country 4 years so far of stable and necessary government allowing at least an initial recovery from the Labour car crash. But it is looking increasingly likely they are going to be hammered.
But don't those same criticisms apply to a second question asking the respondent to focus on their specific seat? Doesn't the question order then exaggerate the local effect?
A better method would be to have a single question, but the single question to be worded with a focus on the local seat.
From the guardian live feed:
"Following on from the comments below by Ali Abu Tiba from the Al-Naqshabandiyia resistance movement in Mosul, Reuters reports that a militant parade of captured Humvee vehicles in the city also included two captured helicopters flying overhead. It was, the agency reported, the first time Isis-allied forces have seized aircraft."
I've gone in for £25.
Lost, the battle, went to negotiate peace, was betrayed by the other side, captured and used as a human foot stool for the rest of his life.
But it could be like the Battle of Ipsus for the Lib Dems in 2015.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/10895239/Greece-sues-for-7-billion-euros-over-German-submarines-that-have-never-sailed.html
It's what they say: "You can never tell what a person's character is until you give them power"
One of my winning bets at the Scottish GE in 2011 was John Mason (SNP) in Glasgow Shettleston by 2 points. I got 50 quid on him at 25/1. He had been at 50/1. I wish I'd got on the SNP in Glasgow Anniesland!
"I'm turning into a grumpy old woman - aged just 31
In a world where we don't switch off, we're getting more stressed out earlier than ever, says Rebecca Holman
But what started out as a response to stress and a busy life has made me a grumpy old woman at 31. I’ve become the cynic and the pessimist you have to talk around if you want to change the evening plans. The idea of ‘playing it by ear,’ ‘just seeing what happens’ or indeed going to a crowded bar unless I know I’m going to get a seat, is not an option. Adverts on TV make me cross because I feel like I’m being conned, RAG week students on the tube leave me sour-faced and muttering under my breath, and I’m sure you can imagine how I feel about restaurants with a no-reservation policy.
My friends think it’s a phase - I’ll chill out when my life chills out, and go back to my chilled-out old self, but I’m not so sure. I think this is just the way I am now. I’ve become just the sort of ‘grown up’ (don’t laugh) I always vowed I’d never become - inflexible and difficult, far more concerned about how everything affects me than how my behaviour affects everyone else around me. "
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/women/womens-health/10864366/Im-turning-into-a-grumpy-old-woman-aged-just-31.html
My proposition does not extend to the Lib Dems holding 30 seats on 2% of the vote, which is a very different thing to holding 30 seats on 8%. The former is absurd, whereas the latter is possible if their vote is sufficiently concentrated.. Worth remembering the 1997 general election when the Lib Dems lost votes but more than doubled the number of seats held.
I think that is harsh. I still believe that far too few people recognise just how close we were to the precipice in 2010. Darling, in fairness did, but the Captain was full speed ahead and damn the torpedoes.
Without a stable government we could have been facing the collapse of our banking system, our currency and our economy. What the Lib Dems did they did in the national interest even if the cars and the preening was an attraction too.
The gloss just sets its biblical and ancient Greek context. Once glossed the meaning of the 'cliché' is enriched by its allusions.
The alternative of quoting the ancient Greek in modern media would be too much even for Boris. I suppose the "weeping and wailing and gnashing of teeth" translation could substitute though.
I still prefer "outer darkness". It is the ring of hell in which the Lib Dems will find themselves. The weeping, wailing and gnashing bit is all they will be able to get up to there.
I'm on!
On 1997 LD lost only 1% but gained plenty of Tory seats on a 5.5% swing plus tactical voting.
This time its the LD that are losing more votes with a 5.5% swing to the Tories however tactical voting might still be there but what is the difference between the LD and CON these days?
EU may classify being fat as a disability:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-27809242
peachy.
At 8% or below, they'll be sharing a taxi. And it won't be a people carrier one, either.
I continue to think Charles Kennedy for next leader is the best way to play LibDemaggedon. Sub 8% means very, very few MPs (at 8%, it will be 3-to-4) , of which CK will definitely be one. Hard to see how he won't be leader under these circumstances. 50-1 is clear value.
My point being that at that vote level - just below 10% - it is only local concentration of the Lib Dem vote, due to tactical voting and personal votes, that matters at all. It matters a lot more than when they are on ~20% of the vote.
Made up the £25 to £50 on the back of Nabavi & TSE following me in, £50 on for my Dad too !
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2/icm
What the Lib's would give to polling 14% now of course... :^O
Mind you, Kennedy would also require a No result in September, and he has hardly lifted a finger to help Darling's BeTory Together outfit.
If that is borne out next year, the Lib Dems being reduced to <20 seats is a very realistic possibility.
He will probably keep his seat since he was ousted 9 years ago for the ridiculous charge of binge drinking not for policy, he is a lefty and not in the coalition and helds the title of the most popular LD leader.
After the car crash of the coalition, he will probably take over.