The Small Print – politicalbetting.com

I see Savanta Comres have a Scotland poll out.

Were some people saying peak Indy/SNP had passed a few days ago?

Cough.

Alistair said:

I see Savanta Comres have a Scotland poll out.

Were some people saying peak Indy/SNP had passed a few days ago?

Cough.

Surely not a Savanta Comres but a seasonal Santa Comres poll ? ....

Perdue dispensing with the dog whistle

https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1339282747047743492?s=19

JACK_W said:

Alistair said:

I see Savanta Comres have a Scotland poll out.

Were some people saying peak Indy/SNP had passed a few days ago?

Cough.

Surely not a Savanta Comres but a seasonal Santa Comres poll ? ....

It certainly is a gift to both the SNP and Sturgeon. They polled on the Salmondgate fiasco. She is the least affected. Salmond took a massive hit.

OnlyLivingBoy said:

williamglenn said:

swing_voter said:

Andy_JS said:

O/T

"How a one-man protest in Tunisia led to Brexit
The past decade's events show the impossibility of political predictions
BY DOUGLAS MURRAY"

https://unherd.com/2020/12/how-a-one-man-protest-in-tunisia-led-to-brexit/

quite tenuous... I prefer the analysis of
1. Blair's Iraq War - demolishing trust in politicians
2. Accession of the Eastern European nations to the EU will few limits on numbers (which I was generally in favour of BTW)
3. A recession in 2009 that saw UK public services and incomes squeezed to the limits
4. A lacklustre Remain campaign dominated by the Conservatice modernising wing which was not helped by piss poor Labour support....
maybe then I would buy into the Arab Spring having a part......(assisted by N Farage et al...)

no mention of Red Buses from me...

The most interesting part of it is the unstated assumption that Brexit isn't a positive development.

Some things don't need to be said.

I've been struck recently by the way that Loyal Conservatives here (no names, no packdrill) muse on a fairly rapid (less than 10 years) step back to EEA.

Makes one wonder why we're bothering, really.

OnlyLivingBoy said:

williamglenn said:

swing_voter said:

Andy_JS said:

O/T

"How a one-man protest in Tunisia led to Brexit
The past decade's events show the impossibility of political predictions
BY DOUGLAS MURRAY"

https://unherd.com/2020/12/how-a-one-man-protest-in-tunisia-led-to-brexit/

quite tenuous... I prefer the analysis of
1. Blair's Iraq War - demolishing trust in politicians
2. Accession of the Eastern European nations to the EU will few limits on numbers (which I was generally in favour of BTW)
3. A recession in 2009 that saw UK public services and incomes squeezed to the limits
4. A lacklustre Remain campaign dominated by the Conservatice modernising wing which was not helped by piss poor Labour support....
maybe then I would buy into the Arab Spring having a part......(assisted by N Farage et al...)

no mention of Red Buses from me...

The most interesting part of it is the unstated assumption that Brexit isn't a positive development.

Some things don't need to be said.

When all is said and done I think it is, Brexit is going about as well as could have been hoped for. We have a trade deal about to be signed with Europe and we've rolled over trade deals with all our other major partners too - the only way is up from here.

The EU is a dysfunctional institution. Once we've gotten out of it then we can build steadily a new path rather than facing these old arguments that have torn us asunder for the past four decades.

Stuartinromford said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

williamglenn said:

swing_voter said:

Andy_JS said:

O/T

"How a one-man protest in Tunisia led to Brexit
The past decade's events show the impossibility of political predictions
BY DOUGLAS MURRAY"

https://unherd.com/2020/12/how-a-one-man-protest-in-tunisia-led-to-brexit/

quite tenuous... I prefer the analysis of
1. Blair's Iraq War - demolishing trust in politicians
2. Accession of the Eastern European nations to the EU will few limits on numbers (which I was generally in favour of BTW)
3. A recession in 2009 that saw UK public services and incomes squeezed to the limits
4. A lacklustre Remain campaign dominated by the Conservatice modernising wing which was not helped by piss poor Labour support....
maybe then I would buy into the Arab Spring having a part......(assisted by N Farage et al...)

no mention of Red Buses from me...

The most interesting part of it is the unstated assumption that Brexit isn't a positive development.

Some things don't need to be said.

I've been struck recently by the way that Loyal Conservatives here (no names, no packdrill) muse on a fairly rapid (less than 10 years) step back to EEA.

Makes one wonder why we're bothering, really.

Not going to happen. It is delusional to suggest that.

Nigelb said:

Anyone know if this is a thing in the UK ?
(It being common practice to overfill multi-dose vials.)

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1339352484234539010

I don’t know but given that (a) it’s a standardised fill/finish process and (b) the consequences (and cost) of a short vaccine dose are great than a little wastage I would assume so

Alistair said:

JACK_W said:

Alistair said:

I see Savanta Comres have a Scotland poll out.

Were some people saying peak Indy/SNP had passed a few days ago?

Cough.

Surely not a Savanta Comres but a seasonal Santa Comres poll ? ....

It certainly is a gift to both the SNP and Sturgeon. They polled on the Salmondgate fiasco. She is the least affected. Salmond took a massive hit.

Good poll for independence

Philip_Thompson said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

williamglenn said:

swing_voter said:

Andy_JS said:

O/T

"How a one-man protest in Tunisia led to Brexit
The past decade's events show the impossibility of political predictions
BY DOUGLAS MURRAY"

https://unherd.com/2020/12/how-a-one-man-protest-in-tunisia-led-to-brexit/

quite tenuous... I prefer the analysis of
1. Blair's Iraq War - demolishing trust in politicians
2. Accession of the Eastern European nations to the EU will few limits on numbers (which I was generally in favour of BTW)
3. A recession in 2009 that saw UK public services and incomes squeezed to the limits
4. A lacklustre Remain campaign dominated by the Conservatice modernising wing which was not helped by piss poor Labour support....
maybe then I would buy into the Arab Spring having a part......(assisted by N Farage et al...)

no mention of Red Buses from me...

The most interesting part of it is the unstated assumption that Brexit isn't a positive development.

Some things don't need to be said.

When all is said and done I think it is, Brexit is going about as well as could have been hoped for. We have a trade deal about to be signed with Europe and we've rolled over trade deals with all our other major partners too - the only way is up from here.

The EU is a dysfunctional institution. Once we've gotten out of it then we can build steadily a new path rather than facing these old arguments that have torn us asunder for the past four decades.

Optimist! We’ve got at least a decade more of Brexit arguments IMHO

Charles said:

Philip_Thompson said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

williamglenn said:

swing_voter said:

Andy_JS said:

O/T

"How a one-man protest in Tunisia led to Brexit
The past decade's events show the impossibility of political predictions
BY DOUGLAS MURRAY"

https://unherd.com/2020/12/how-a-one-man-protest-in-tunisia-led-to-brexit/

quite tenuous... I prefer the analysis of
1. Blair's Iraq War - demolishing trust in politicians
2. Accession of the Eastern European nations to the EU will few limits on numbers (which I was generally in favour of BTW)
3. A recession in 2009 that saw UK public services and incomes squeezed to the limits
4. A lacklustre Remain campaign dominated by the Conservatice modernising wing which was not helped by piss poor Labour support....
maybe then I would buy into the Arab Spring having a part......(assisted by N Farage et al...)

no mention of Red Buses from me...

The most interesting part of it is the unstated assumption that Brexit isn't a positive development.

Some things don't need to be said.

When all is said and done I think it is, Brexit is going about as well as could have been hoped for. We have a trade deal about to be signed with Europe and we've rolled over trade deals with all our other major partners too - the only way is up from here.

The EU is a dysfunctional institution. Once we've gotten out of it then we can build steadily a new path rather than facing these old arguments that have torn us asunder for the past four decades.

Optimist! We’ve got at least a decade more of Brexit arguments IMHO

Yes but we'll be having new arguments, not the old ones. That is something at least.

Independence cannot even get to 60%? Clear justification to refuse another referendum in my opinion.

gealbhan said:

solarflare said:

NickPalmer said:

The suggestion thaat the Sputnik vaccine may actually work is slightly interesting, though it doesn't seem to be holding the pandemic down much in Russia yet.

Surely they aren't that much more advanced in their mass vaccination campaign to be able to state that with confidence though? Do we have an idea of how many folk they have jabbed with it?

We are effectively in a Cold War with the Russians, where truth is replaced by bias. But surely we have to admit, if the KGB of any country rounds up its best in a field scientists and tells them their family will live in exile in the artic circle if a world beating vaccine is not produced, it’s going to yield some sort of result?

Concordski Vaccine?

The British Retail Consortium (BRC) and the Food and Drink Federation (FDF) warn they face "major challenges" in building up stock for Christmas and the end of the transition period on December 31.

In a joint letter to the chairs of the Commons Transport Select Committee and the Commons International Trade Committee, they wrote that some shipping costs have more than doubled compared with last year.

One food manufacturer has suffered lost sales worth more than £1 million due to a shortage during the crucial festive period, the letter stated.

The BRC and FDF want the committees to hold an inquiry into the chaos at ports and the functioning of the shipping market.

IshmaelZ said:

IanB2 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1339363285779550214?s=20

It is only going to be days before the US crosses over our population adjusted death rate.

Also

https://www.newsweek.com/california-becomes-first-us-state-report-50000-new-covid-cases-1-day-1555329

And there was me thinking it would be North Dakota.

Philip_Thompson said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

williamglenn said:

swing_voter said:

Andy_JS said:

O/T

"How a one-man protest in Tunisia led to Brexit
The past decade's events show the impossibility of political predictions
BY DOUGLAS MURRAY"

https://unherd.com/2020/12/how-a-one-man-protest-in-tunisia-led-to-brexit/

quite tenuous... I prefer the analysis of
1. Blair's Iraq War - demolishing trust in politicians
2. Accession of the Eastern European nations to the EU will few limits on numbers (which I was generally in favour of BTW)
3. A recession in 2009 that saw UK public services and incomes squeezed to the limits
4. A lacklustre Remain campaign dominated by the Conservatice modernising wing which was not helped by piss poor Labour support....
maybe then I would buy into the Arab Spring having a part......(assisted by N Farage et al...)

no mention of Red Buses from me...

The most interesting part of it is the unstated assumption that Brexit isn't a positive development.

Some things don't need to be said.

When all is said and done I think it is, Brexit is going about as well as could have been hoped for. We have a trade deal about to be signed with Europe and we've rolled over trade deals with all our other major partners too - the only way is up from here.

The EU is a dysfunctional institution. Once we've gotten out of it then we can build steadily a new path rather than facing these old arguments that have torn us asunder for the past four decades.

LOL

Charles said:

Nigelb said:

Anyone know if this is a thing in the UK ?
(It being common practice to overfill multi-dose vials.)

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1339352484234539010

I don’t know but given that (a) it’s a standardised fill/finish process and (b) the consequences (and cost) of a short vaccine dose are great than a little wastage I would assume so

I was thinking about whether we were using the extra dose rather than whether it’s there.

OnlyLivingBoy said:

rottenborough said:

Alistair said:

Finally the GOP have accepted a Democrat is going to be president

https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1339375643264495618?s=19

Yep. Four years of debt panic from GOP. See Paul Krugman's many articles on their debt hypocrisy.

The Trump administration was running a near $1 trillion deficit at the top of the economic cycle before Covid struck and Senate Republicans didn't give two shits. They are the worst.

The GOP Senators and Reps at least have the defence of a venal love of power. The average GOP ramper on here who shoves their fingers in their ears whenever Trump's/Bush's/Reagan's deficit ballooning is raised has no excuse.

Alistair said:

For those who like their polling news in the form of a tweet

https://twitter.com/SNPStudents/status/1339467106379816961?s=19

Didn’t you get the brief from Philip ?
We no longer have to face the arguments which have torn us asunder....

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/DavidHenigUK/status/1339491031570673664

Utter clown show. Tories used to be party of business. Seems the party is full now of people who have no idea whatsoever how business works.

Last three words redundant.

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/DavidHenigUK/status/1339491031570673664

Utter clown show. Tories used to be party of business. Seems the party is full now of people who have no idea whatsoever how business works.

That law against an extension of the transition period, is it specifically against an extension under the withdrawal agreement, or more general to anything that looks like it?

LostPassword said:

kle4 said:

MarqueeMark said:

stodge said:

Nigelb said:

One piece of good news is that influenza levels are very low indeed for this time of the year:
http://www.wales.nhs.uk/sites3/page.cfm?orgid=457&pid=34338

I've two thoughts on this - first, Covid has crowded out the other influenza viruses and will become the dominant virus for the next couple of decades.

Second, even the most basic public health precautions such as mask wearing, social distancing and the "fogging" of transport carriages have reduced the transmission of other viruses so as we fight Covid we fight all the others as well including the cold virus so I'm not surprised cases of other viruses are well down.

To be honest, some of the measures we have introduced to fight Covid such as mask wearing on public transport and the routine disinfecting of carriages seem sensible measures to continue even once Covid has finally been suppressed by (hopefully) mass vaccination.

Those who blether on about the economics might like to consider the notion the cost of keeping people healthier is a more productive economy with fewer people taking days sick.

I also hope that Covid sees the end of those absolute arseholes who come into work with contagious bugs, because they have some weird notion that the world can't possibly function without them.

Stay home. Get better.

That's not the only reason people do it of course. Plenty of places might say they want you to do that in such a situation, and even think they mean it, but react very differently if people actually do take 'too much' time off with bugs.

I've had to go through an excruciating, and stressful, "health assessment" due to breaching a threshold for number of sick absence days.

So, yes, I have then gone into the office dosed up on day nurse.

At least I'm now in a position in most circumstances to simply work from home instead. But that wasn't the case before.

First time I was off sick in my current job, my line manager was also new in the organisation. I went back in after 2-3 days (forget, it was a virus, flu-like in some ways with temperature, but not that severe) and we went through the return to work form together - questions like 'how would you avoid having this time away from work again'. Dunno, never go anywhere, wear a mask all the time? It was such a pain - 2or 3 sides of A4 - and clearly so pointless that next time I was sick I informed her again, but when I went back and asked about the form she said we'd just deal with sickness between us from now on, so there were no forms. So, my employer's personnel records will show I've had one sickness absence in 6 years. It's sensible in many ways, as I'm only off sick for random bugs for a few days at a time once or twice a year* and just catch up with the work when back, so how much I'm absent is pretty irrelevant. Clearly if I had a longer term illness we'd have to do the forms and inform HR. But the pointless pain of a ridiculous form means that HR no longer have any information on absence in - I assume - a whole team of 10 people or so and probable several other teams.

*I've also had time off when my wife and I have had miscarriages. I don't know what the official employer policy in those circumstances is, but I had a week the first time, which was enough for me to get myself back together and be productive when I came back - my workload didn't change and I did longer hours over the next few weeks t catch up, which suited me fine. Shorter times on the other occasions, as I didn't need as long. For another family member in the same situation, her husband was expected back at work the next day (even though he was in a job where others could take over his work). He described himself as a zombie for the next few weeks and left the employer as soon as he was able to find another position.

Alistair said:

I see Savanta Comres have a Scotland poll out.

Were some people saying peak Indy/SNP had passed a few days ago?

Cough.

An outlier.
17th outlier in a row, but still an outlier.

Casino_Royale said:

Alistair said:

For those who like their polling news in the form of a tweet

https://twitter.com/SNPStudents/status/1339467106379816961?s=19

Do you have a link to the source data in that poll please, Alistair?

https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/poll-shows-scottish-independence-support-surging-joint-record-levels-snp-set-majority-3070791

Just out so the full tables not yet available.

With DKs the figure is Yes 52%, No 38%, DK 10%

There's other articles breaking down the leadership favourability questions (summary, Sturgeon is untouchable unless you are a moron, alas the SNP is full of morons)

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/DavidHenigUK/status/1339491031570673664

Utter clown show. Tories used to be party of business. Seems the party is full now of people who have no idea whatsoever how business works.

Parliament either says yes or no, it doesn't negotiate.

Nigelb said:

Philip_Thompson said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

williamglenn said:

swing_voter said:

Andy_JS said:

O/T

"How a one-man protest in Tunisia led to Brexit
The past decade's events show the impossibility of political predictions
BY DOUGLAS MURRAY"

https://unherd.com/2020/12/how-a-one-man-protest-in-tunisia-led-to-brexit/

quite tenuous... I prefer the analysis of
1. Blair's Iraq War - demolishing trust in politicians
2. Accession of the Eastern European nations to the EU will few limits on numbers (which I was generally in favour of BTW)
3. A recession in 2009 that saw UK public services and incomes squeezed to the limits
4. A lacklustre Remain campaign dominated by the Conservatice modernising wing which was not helped by piss poor Labour support....
maybe then I would buy into the Arab Spring having a part......(assisted by N Farage et al...)

no mention of Red Buses from me...

The most interesting part of it is the unstated assumption that Brexit isn't a positive development.

Some things don't need to be said.

When all is said and done I think it is, Brexit is going about as well as could have been hoped for. We have a trade deal about to be signed with Europe and we've rolled over trade deals with all our other major partners too - the only way is up from here.

The EU is a dysfunctional institution. Once we've gotten out of it then we can build steadily a new path rather than facing these old arguments that have torn us asunder for the past four decades.

LOL

Ah, the disdainful LOL of the Remainer.

Some of us are going to knuckle down to make sure that new path is a reality. Underpinned by the knowledge that the democratic process has been greatly enhanced: both by getting out from under an EU that has a deep distrust of democracy - because those pesky voters use it to thwart their Project - and proving that the voters DO have a voice to which politicans must listen.

Not my problem that such things mean so little to you.

Nigelb said:

Alistair said:

For those who like their polling news in the form of a tweet

https://twitter.com/SNPStudents/status/1339467106379816961?s=19

Didn’t you get the brief from Philip ?
We no longer have to face the arguments which have torn us asunder....

Brexit not Sindy.

We will move on from arguments about Europe primarily to other arguments and Sindyref II is going to be up there near the top.

I for one will be cheering on from the sidelines the Yes campaign in the inevitable second Sindyref. Only once Scotland becomes a sovereign country can and will it start to move on from every issue being a battle with London.

OldKingCole said:

Nigelb said:

NickPalmer said:

LostPassword said:

LostPassword said:

kle4 said:

MarqueeMark said:

stodge said:

Nigelb said:

One piece of good news is that influenza levels are very low indeed for this time of the year:
http://www.wales.nhs.uk/sites3/page.cfm?orgid=457&pid=34338

I've two thoughts on this - first, Covid has crowded out the other influenza viruses and will become the dominant virus for the next couple of decades.

Second, even the most basic public health precautions such as mask wearing, social distancing and the "fogging" of transport carriages have reduced the transmission of other viruses so as we fight Covid we fight all the others as well including the cold virus so I'm not surprised cases of other viruses are well down.

To be honest, some of the measures we have introduced to fight Covid such as mask wearing on public transport and the routine disinfecting of carriages seem sensible measures to continue even once Covid has finally been suppressed by (hopefully) mass vaccination.

Those who blether on about the economics might like to consider the notion the cost of keeping people healthier is a more productive economy with fewer people taking days sick.

I also hope that Covid sees the end of those absolute arseholes who come into work with contagious bugs, because they have some weird notion that the world can't possibly function without them.

Stay home. Get better.

That's not the only reason people do it of course. Plenty of places might say they want you to do that in such a situation, and even think they mean it, but react very differently if people actually do take 'too much' time off with bugs.

I've had to go through an excruciating, and stressful, "health assessment" due to breaching a threshold for number of sick absence days.

So, yes, I have then gone into the office dosed up on day nurse.

At least I'm now in a position in most circumstances to simply work from home instead. But that wasn't the case before.

To give another example, last year for a while I was working Mon/Fri at home and Tue-Thu on client site. On Monday I'm capable of working, just about, but I have a temperature, and I'm clearly infectious with something.

So it makes sense to me not to travel across the country and spread the infection on the client site, and work that week from home. I also didn't fancy a couple of days in a hotel if I became more sick. But the issue ends up being discussed all day, by multiple people, and I only finally receive permission to work from home ten minutes before departure from Edinburgh Waverley when I've already dragged myself into town.

Why was that necessary?

Only because the default assumption is that anyone who calls in sick is a malingerer. And that's why people with infections will drag themselves into work.

I used to work for a sweet-natured Italian statistician in the days when people had personal secretaries. He did an analysis to show that his secretary was ill on Mondays only with a statistical signifiance of 98%. He showed it to her gently as a "curiosity", and the pattern stopped.

It seems to depend a lot on the employer - I've worked for employers who accepted staff being off for 6 months due to depression, and then welcomed them back on a gradual basis. I've never worked for a ruthless one like those described. To some extent it's a class thing, I suspect - the lower-status your job, the less leeway employers tend to offer. (Which should be the way illegal - all staff should be treated in the samer way on this.)

There’s really no excuse for treating employees badly. If you’re a small business, then long term sick cases can be very difficult, but that doesn’t excuse treating them with contempt.

Not quite the same, but long years ago when I ran a fairly large pharmacy, with quite a decent cosmetic business we took on a junior who after about a year got married and a couple of months later told us she wanted the then new maternity leave. Older female staff a bit sniffy...... who was going to look after the baby etc. but that was the law, so OK.
She came back in due time, then two months later announced that she'd be off on maternity leave again soon.
And shortly after she came back from that she'd fallen again!

Did you show her where the contraceptives were?

@OldKingCole I can't even imagine a world without maternity leave. Mad.

Dura_Ace said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Alistair said:

I see Savanta Comres have a Scotland poll out.

Were some people saying peak Indy/SNP had passed a few days ago?

Cough.

An outlier.
17th outlier in a row, but still an outlier.

Some unknowable but significant part of that 58% must be down to Johnson's snaggle-toothed and flabby presence in No.10. The SNP have to act while here is still there.

To delay action is the same as death, as Father Lenin said.

I know it.
Still have pm Gove as a saver tho’.

Dura_Ace said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Alistair said:

I see Savanta Comres have a Scotland poll out.

Were some people saying peak Indy/SNP had passed a few days ago?

Cough.

An outlier.
17th outlier in a row, but still an outlier.

Some unknowable but significant part of that 58% must be down to Johnson's snaggle-toothed and flabby presence in No.10. The SNP have to act while here is still there.

To delay action is the same as death, as Father Lenin said.

Perhaps, but it's entirely possible that some of the movement is permanent. If Sturgeon has persuaded people that they can't rely on the UK government to protect them from a deadly pandemic then you can see why they would want a government of their own that would act to do so.

If the shift is as fundamental as that then it won't swing back.

Independent Republic of Ireland has 431 deaths per million. The UK 963, Northern Ireland 604.

LostPassword said:

Dura_Ace said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Alistair said:

I see Savanta Comres have a Scotland poll out.

Were some people saying peak Indy/SNP had passed a few days ago?

Cough.

An outlier.
17th outlier in a row, but still an outlier.

Some unknowable but significant part of that 58% must be down to Johnson's snaggle-toothed and flabby presence in No.10. The SNP have to act while here is still there.

To delay action is the same as death, as Father Lenin said.

Perhaps, but it's entirely possible that some of the movement is permanent. If Sturgeon has persuaded people that they can't rely on the UK government to protect them from a deadly pandemic then you can see why they would want a government of their own that would act to do so.

If the shift is as fundamental as that then it won't swing back.

Independent Republic of Ireland has 431 deaths per million. The UK 963, Northern Ireland 604.

Though healthcare is already devolved to Scotland isn't it?

If it was a case of Scotland 400 vs England 900 you might have a point but it isn't.

Plus of course by being a part of the UK it has to be noteworthy that Scotland is at the front of the queue for vaccinations - had an independent Scotland within the EU joined the EU scheme instead then they'd be waiting months while England rolled out its vaccine.

Philip_Thompson said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Excellent article, Alistair, and thanks for the name check.

If I had backed Trump with Betfair, I wouldn't hope for the result to be overturned or the market reopened. That would be too ambitious. I would however ask for a refund of all bets placed between 7th November, by which time the Networks had unanimously projected the Electoral Votes in favour of Biden, and the 14th December when Betfair rather arbitrarily decided to settle the market on the basis of actual ECVs.

I think I'd have a case.

Except the terms were the "official" projections and those were only settled on the 14th. Until the 14th the official projections could change, on the 14th the official projections were 'locked' and finalised.

There's nothing arbitrary about that. I know that you disagree but the simple matter of law is that there was nothing legally official about the networks 'declaration' on the 7th November. The official declaration was 14 December.

You seem to have confused the word projection with confirmation.

From 7th November there were projections that Biden had won.
On 14th December when the Electoral Votes were actually cast that projection was confirmed.

BetVictor didn't pay out to 14th December but their market was suspended from the 4th onwards, Betfair should have done the same and that wording could possibly cost them an awful lot of money (and it should do on duty of care reasons alone).

But it's not worth arguing over as we are all trying to remember what the Betfair market actually said. The issue is that Betfair royally and completely and utterly screwed up here and have cost some people who didn't know better (so shouldn't have been betting in the first place) a lot of money.

Philip_Thompson said:

LostPassword said:

Dura_Ace said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Alistair said:

I see Savanta Comres have a Scotland poll out.

Were some people saying peak Indy/SNP had passed a few days ago?

Cough.

An outlier.
17th outlier in a row, but still an outlier.

Some unknowable but significant part of that 58% must be down to Johnson's snaggle-toothed and flabby presence in No.10. The SNP have to act while here is still there.

To delay action is the same as death, as Father Lenin said.

Perhaps, but it's entirely possible that some of the movement is permanent. If Sturgeon has persuaded people that they can't rely on the UK government to protect them from a deadly pandemic then you can see why they would want a government of their own that would act to do so.

If the shift is as fundamental as that then it won't swing back.

Independent Republic of Ireland has 431 deaths per million. The UK 963, Northern Ireland 604.

Though healthcare is already devolved to Scotland isn't it?

If it was a case of Scotland 400 vs England 900 you might have a point but it isn't.

Plus of course by being a part of the UK it has to be noteworthy that Scotland is at the front of the queue for vaccinations - had an independent Scotland within the EU joined the EU scheme instead then they'd be waiting months while England rolled out its vaccine.

Given the current relative rates in the graph frequently posted here, which are about 2/3 England, and only barely going up at present, it may not be so surprising. Also the general steadiness of that curve and the relative lack of chopping and changing policy. Very different feel here from what it is obviously like in Wales from what our PB colleagues say.

There is also Brexit. Which has, in a sense, not happened yet.

eek said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Excellent article, Alistair, and thanks for the name check.

If I had backed Trump with Betfair, I wouldn't hope for the result to be overturned or the market reopened. That would be too ambitious. I would however ask for a refund of all bets placed between 7th November, by which time the Networks had unanimously projected the Electoral Votes in favour of Biden, and the 14th December when Betfair rather arbitrarily decided to settle the market on the basis of actual ECVs.

I think I'd have a case.

Except the terms were the "official" projections and those were only settled on the 14th. Until the 14th the official projections could change, on the 14th the official projections were 'locked' and finalised.

There's nothing arbitrary about that. I know that you disagree but the simple matter of law is that there was nothing legally official about the networks 'declaration' on the 7th November. The official declaration was 14 December.

You seem to have confused the word projection with confirmation.

From 7th November there were projections that Biden had won.
On 14th December when the Electoral Votes were actually cast that projection was confirmed.

BetVictor didn't pay out to 14th December but their market was suspended from the 4th onwards, Betfair should have done the same and that wording could possibly cost them an awful lot of money (and it should do on duty of care reasons alone).

I'm not confused, you're confused. Projections can change. It has happened before.

In Florida 2000 with the same Terms and Conditions as 2020 the "projection" initially was that Gore won. In the end Bush won it. Did Betfair pay out on Gore as a winner because that was the first projection? Of course not.

Or go further back and there was a newspaper that famously projected that Dewey beat Truman. Did that mean that bookies around with the same Ts and Cs then would have paid out on Dewey? Of course not.

The terms do say projection but they don't say which projection they go off. Is it the first projection? Or the final projection? In the past they have paid on the final projection not the first projection quite rightly and waiting for the official results waits to see if the projection changes.

Philip_Thompson said:

LostPassword said:

Dura_Ace said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Alistair said:

I see Savanta Comres have a Scotland poll out.

Were some people saying peak Indy/SNP had passed a few days ago?

Cough.

An outlier.
17th outlier in a row, but still an outlier.

Some unknowable but significant part of that 58% must be down to Johnson's snaggle-toothed and flabby presence in No.10. The SNP have to act while here is still there.

To delay action is the same as death, as Father Lenin said.

Perhaps, but it's entirely possible that some of the movement is permanent. If Sturgeon has persuaded people that they can't rely on the UK government to protect them from a deadly pandemic then you can see why they would want a government of their own that would act to do so.

If the shift is as fundamental as that then it won't swing back.

Independent Republic of Ireland has 431 deaths per million. The UK 963, Northern Ireland 604.

Though healthcare is already devolved to Scotland isn't it?

If it was a case of Scotland 400 vs England 900 you might have a point but it isn't.

Plus of course by being a part of the UK it has to be noteworthy that Scotland is at the front of the queue for vaccinations - had an independent Scotland within the EU joined the EU scheme instead then they'd be waiting months while England rolled out its vaccine.

Healthcare is devolved, but most of the effective action to control spread of the virus has involved massive borrowing to fund furlough for lockdown - the devolved governments have been dependent on Westminster for that.

The relevant comparison isn't between Scotland and England, it's between Scotland as-is and Scotland-as-might-have-been as represented by a nearby independent country with a similar population.

nichomar said:

OldKingCole said:

Nigelb said:

NickPalmer said:

LostPassword said:

LostPassword said:

kle4 said:

MarqueeMark said:

stodge said:

Nigelb said:

One piece of good news is that influenza levels are very low indeed for this time of the year:
http://www.wales.nhs.uk/sites3/page.cfm?orgid=457&pid=34338

I've two thoughts on this - first, Covid has crowded out the other influenza viruses and will become the dominant virus for the next couple of decades.

Second, even the most basic public health precautions such as mask wearing, social distancing and the "fogging" of transport carriages have reduced the transmission of other viruses so as we fight Covid we fight all the others as well including the cold virus so I'm not surprised cases of other viruses are well down.

To be honest, some of the measures we have introduced to fight Covid such as mask wearing on public transport and the routine disinfecting of carriages seem sensible measures to continue even once Covid has finally been suppressed by (hopefully) mass vaccination.

Those who blether on about the economics might like to consider the notion the cost of keeping people healthier is a more productive economy with fewer people taking days sick.

I also hope that Covid sees the end of those absolute arseholes who come into work with contagious bugs, because they have some weird notion that the world can't possibly function without them.

Stay home. Get better.

That's not the only reason people do it of course. Plenty of places might say they want you to do that in such a situation, and even think they mean it, but react very differently if people actually do take 'too much' time off with bugs.

I've had to go through an excruciating, and stressful, "health assessment" due to breaching a threshold for number of sick absence days.

So, yes, I have then gone into the office dosed up on day nurse.

At least I'm now in a position in most circumstances to simply work from home instead. But that wasn't the case before.

To give another example, last year for a while I was working Mon/Fri at home and Tue-Thu on client site. On Monday I'm capable of working, just about, but I have a temperature, and I'm clearly infectious with something.

So it makes sense to me not to travel across the country and spread the infection on the client site, and work that week from home. I also didn't fancy a couple of days in a hotel if I became more sick. But the issue ends up being discussed all day, by multiple people, and I only finally receive permission to work from home ten minutes before departure from Edinburgh Waverley when I've already dragged myself into town.

Why was that necessary?

Only because the default assumption is that anyone who calls in sick is a malingerer. And that's why people with infections will drag themselves into work.

I used to work for a sweet-natured Italian statistician in the days when people had personal secretaries. He did an analysis to show that his secretary was ill on Mondays only with a statistical signifiance of 98%. He showed it to her gently as a "curiosity", and the pattern stopped.

It seems to depend a lot on the employer - I've worked for employers who accepted staff being off for 6 months due to depression, and then welcomed them back on a gradual basis. I've never worked for a ruthless one like those described. To some extent it's a class thing, I suspect - the lower-status your job, the less leeway employers tend to offer. (Which should be the way illegal - all staff should be treated in the samer way on this.)

There’s really no excuse for treating employees badly. If you’re a small business, then long term sick cases can be very difficult, but that doesn’t excuse treating them with contempt.

Not quite the same, but long years ago when I ran a fairly large pharmacy, with quite a decent cosmetic business we took on a junior who after about a year got married and a couple of months later told us she wanted the then new maternity leave. Older female staff a bit sniffy...... who was going to look after the baby etc. but that was the law, so OK.
She came back in due time, then two months later announced that she'd be off on maternity leave again soon.
And shortly after she came back from that she'd fallen again!

Did you show her where the contraceptives were?

Her 'line manager' senior cosmetic assistant, a woman with two late-teenage daughter apparently told her one or two things!

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1339503542764187649

Hopefully mrs macron hasn't got it as she is into the high risk category.

FrancisUrquhart said:

IanB2 said:

BREAKING: Director John McTiernan confirms Die Hard is a Christmas film

The director of Die Hard, John McTiernan, has released a short video explaining why the original Die Hard movie is a bona fide Christmas film.

https://www.radiotimes.com/news/film/2020-12-17/john-mctiernan-die-hard-is-a-christmas-film/

Paging TSE.....

Bruce Willis declares 'Die Hard is not a Christmas movie'

https://ew.com/movies/2018/07/15/bruce-willis-die-hard-not-christmas-movie/

deleted

Nigelb said:

https://twitter.com/jane__bradley/status/1339465776848355328

Interesting that it took a US media outlet to do this analysis, despite our supposedly fearless and independent press.

RobD said:

Nigelb said:

https://twitter.com/jane__bradley/status/1339465776848355328

History of controversy and politically connected are likely highly subjective categorisations.

Of course.
But against that, the NYT is considerably more objective than (say) the Guardian.

Philip_Thompson said:

RobD said:

Nigelb said:

https://twitter.com/jane__bradley/status/1339465776848355328

History of controversy and politically connected are likely highly subjective categorisations.

As is no prior experience.

99% of PPE was imported previously whereas now 70% is manufactured in the UK so of course many would not have prior experience of manufacturing PPE. Doesn't mean they don't have transferable prior experience in something different that enables them to adapt easily to this.

Have you looked into what they class as "no prior experience" or are you just guessing?

Nigelb said:

RobD said:

Nigelb said:

https://twitter.com/jane__bradley/status/1339465776848355328

History of controversy and politically connected are likely highly subjective categorisations.

Of course.
But against that, the NYT is considerably more objective than (say) the Guardian.

The NYT has quite a well known anti-Brexit anti-UK anti-Johnson agenda.

FrancisUrquhart said:

RobD said:

Nigelb said:

https://twitter.com/jane__bradley/status/1339465776848355328

History of controversy and politically connected are likely highly subjective categorisations.

So is no prior experience....who has prior experience for a once in a 100 year pandemic. And it is subjective

Some of those who didn't have "experience" delivered because they already had contacts in wider supply chain e.g. the outrage story of a couple of weeks ago of the guy from Florida doing PPE..he had no experience in PPE directly, but a lot of experience and contacts in Chinese supply chain.

That's different from the pub landlord from Hancock's local story.

We've of course already discussed the morality of already very wealthy people making millions off the back of a national emergency instead of simply donating their "contacts" to the government.

Dura_Ace said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Alistair said:

I see Savanta Comres have a Scotland poll out.

Were some people saying peak Indy/SNP had passed a few days ago?

Cough.

An outlier.
17th outlier in a row, but still an outlier.

Some unknowable but significant part of that 58% must be down to Johnson's snaggle-toothed and flabby presence in No.10. The SNP have to act while here is still there.

To delay action is the same as death, as Father Lenin said.

You realise calling him that makes him sound like one of the Smurfs ?

Good morning, everyone.

Hope Macron's alright.

Elsewhere:
https://twitter.com/RitaPanahi/status/1339363701065830400