New polling tonight finds 64% thinking a deal is unlikely compared with just 16% who do – politicalb
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No but it does mean if Boris gets a Deal he can present himself as a genius who conjured a brilliant Deal from nothing and won against the odds once again and the man on the Clapham Omnibus might well believe him yet againDecrepiterJohnL said:On-topic, does it really matter whether the man on the Clapham omnibus thinks a deal is likely?
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As the vaccine results come in, if most of them work there are going to be knotty nice-to-have problems for every government. Do they prioritise the one they can get most of quickly, the one that works best, the cheapest one, or some algorithm mixing all the criteria? Given the amount of money we're burning through in the crisis, I'd vote for the most effective, with draconian lockdown until, say, at least 25% of the population have had it, but other answers are available.FrancisUrquhart said:Johnson and Johnson will know by January if their vaccine works...
hnson & Johnson’s candidate remains promising for a couple of reasons. Firstly, the company is targeting a single-dose regimen for the vaccine, unlike most of the other players which require two doses (although it also started a two-dose regimen to evaluate incremental benefits). This should make it much easier to administer at the time of a pandemic, putting less stress on the healthcare infrastructure. Secondly, the distribution could also be relatively seamless as the vaccine is expected to remain stable for at least three months at refrigerator-like temperatures, unlike some other vaccines (such as Pfizer’s) that need specialized freezers. The vaccine is also likely to be relatively affordable. Per a deal with the U.S. government, Johnson & Johnson has priced its vaccine at about $10 per dose.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2020/12/08/johnson--johnson-the-dark-horse-of-the-covid-vaccine-race/?sh=2c5c5984560b
I asked today what the hospitals are doing where the expected patient to be vaccinated doesn't turn up. In the Royal Surrey at least, they are vaccinating elderly patients who were coming in anyway for another reason (broken leg etc.) and if an expected patient doesn't arrive on schedule they are vaccinating staff while they wait for the next patient. Assuming it's well-organised (which I expect it is), this seems a sensible use of time and available vaccine.2 -
Good luck with thatHYUFD said:
No but it does mean if Boris gets a Deal he can present himself as a genius who conjured a brilliant Deal from nothing and won against the odds once again and the man on the Clapham Omnibus might well believe him yet againDecrepiterJohnL said:On-topic, does it really matter whether the man on the Clapham omnibus thinks a deal is likely?
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I've disagreed with him on a lot, but HYUFD is making a reasonable point here. The poll is good for Johnson in terms of the expectation game - if he fails to get a deal, he's met expectations but if he gets one, he's beaten them. A poll showing 64% expected a deal would be more worrying for him.Gallowgate said:
Good luck with thatHYUFD said:
No but it does mean if Boris gets a Deal he can present himself as a genius who conjured a brilliant Deal from nothing and won against the odds once again and the man on the Clapham Omnibus might well believe him yet againDecrepiterJohnL said:On-topic, does it really matter whether the man on the Clapham omnibus thinks a deal is likely?
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Isn't it past your bedtime yet?!Gallowgate said:
Good luck with thatHYUFD said:
No but it does mean if Boris gets a Deal he can present himself as a genius who conjured a brilliant Deal from nothing and won against the odds once again and the man on the Clapham Omnibus might well believe him yet againDecrepiterJohnL said:On-topic, does it really matter whether the man on the Clapham omnibus thinks a deal is likely?
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The expectation, however, is that getting a "deal" avoids disruption in January. It doesn't though. For the first time since Brexit we'll actually have some quite significant changes and whether or not we have a "deal", it's probably going to come as quite a shock to some.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
I've disagreed with him on a lot, but HYUFD is making a reasonable point here. The poll is good for Johnson in terms of the expectation game - if he fails to get a deal, he's met expectations but if he gets one, he's beaten them. A poll showing 64% expected a deal would be more worrying for him.Gallowgate said:
Good luck with thatHYUFD said:
No but it does mean if Boris gets a Deal he can present himself as a genius who conjured a brilliant Deal from nothing and won against the odds once again and the man on the Clapham Omnibus might well believe him yet againDecrepiterJohnL said:On-topic, does it really matter whether the man on the Clapham omnibus thinks a deal is likely?
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A fun stat for you on changes in the South is that, in the 1936 Presidential election, Roosevelt won South Carolina in a squeaker by 98.57% to 1.43% for Alf Landon (a couple of counties were unanimous).HYUFD said:
Of course, Landon's votes were all legal and, as he later tweeted "I WON SOUTH CAROLINA BY A LOT!"3 -
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History is fascinating indeedSirNorfolkPassmore said:
Of course, Landon's votes were all legal and, as he later tweeted "I WON SOUTH CAROLINA BY A LOT!"HYUFD said:
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Anyway a top vaccine day!
A good day for Britain!
Or as a previous poster once said: 'Rule, Britannia': 1 -
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It will be interesting how history treats social media accounts where there is evidence that the name thereon controls the content in 50 years time (if I'm there to see it... or even if I'm not).kle4 said:
History is fascinating indeedSirNorfolkPassmore said:
Of course, Landon's votes were all legal and, as he later tweeted "I WON SOUTH CAROLINA BY A LOT!"HYUFD said:
I remain unsure whether Trump's tweets are a stream of consciousness narrative on his internal monologue, or a strangely careful strongman presentation from someone who is thinking and saying very different things in private. It's probably somewhere in between... but where?
Ditto if Alf Landon had been tweeting, but sadly we never had the pleasure.0 -
*ppppffffftttttt*HYUFD said:0 -
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I self identify as a diabetic overweight 83 year old, so I think I'm quite to be quite near the top of the list.Benpointer said:
Unless you've got an underlying condition, you won't even make the priority list!Sunil_Prasannan said:Good to see the vaccination programme start today! However, in my 40s, I guess I'm a long way down the priority list!
Those of us higher up the pecking order would happily swap places with you if we could also swap ages
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The Daily Merkle is off to a very strong start in the vax scare story stakes.
Today's issue has already linked the vaccine to face paralysis and to Guillain-Barré Syndrome,
I am tempted to keep a running tally of the diseases & side-effects the DM identifies as possibly caused by the vaccine over the next few months.0 -
Only 42 years after Jack W then.rcs1000 said:
I self identify as a diabetic overweight 83 year old, so I think I'm quite to be quite near the top of the list.Benpointer said:
Unless you've got an underlying condition, you won't even make the priority list!Sunil_Prasannan said:Good to see the vaccination programme start today! However, in my 40s, I guess I'm a long way down the priority list!
Those of us higher up the pecking order would happily swap places with you if we could also swap ages0 -
Why burden British airlines with higher prices for aircraft, irrespective of where they're made? Better we Brits get to buy our planes for less.Richard_Nabavi said:1 -
The Texas lawsuit is proper bonkers. It says that because the following swing states changed their laws to allow more vote-by-mail, they shouldn't be allowed to send their delegations in.edmundintokyo said:
Clearly getting this PA lawsuit out of the way so they can concentrate on the new one where Texas sues all the swing statesrottenborough said:"The Supreme Court’s order was all of one sentence, and there were no noted dissents."
NYTimes
Now, ignoring the fact that SCOTUS isn't going to disenfranchise tens of millions of people, this lawsuit misses the fact that you'd also have to disenfranchise the electors from all the other states where mail in voting was allowed.
So, goodbye Utah. Goodbye Alaska.
There's be hardly anyone left - and it's far from clear what remained would be Trump-friendly.0 -
Now who would want to steal such tools....and have the means and experience of stealing from companies.
BBC News - US cybersecurity firm FireEye hit by 'state-sponsored' attack
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-552404080 -
This guy isn't taking about Brexit (I doubt he is even aware of it), but i.thought.coincedentally rather apt.
https://twitter.com/taylorcaby/status/1336359698170339333?s=190 -
I believe you are on the money. I am beginning to believe the Boris hype myself. The BBC 10 o'clock news was a celebration of all things Johnson.HYUFD said:
No but it does mean if Boris gets a Deal he can present himself as a genius who conjured a brilliant Deal from nothing and won against the odds once again and the man on the Clapham Omnibus might well believe him yet againDecrepiterJohnL said:On-topic, does it really matter whether the man on the Clapham omnibus thinks a deal is likely?
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They have statistical proof that the election was crooked though. Namely:rcs1000 said:
The Texas lawsuit is proper bonkers. It says that because the following swing states changed their laws to allow more vote-by-mail, they shouldn't be allowed to send their delegations in.edmundintokyo said:
Clearly getting this PA lawsuit out of the way so they can concentrate on the new one where Texas sues all the swing statesrottenborough said:"The Supreme Court’s order was all of one sentence, and there were no noted dissents."
NYTimes
Now, ignoring the fact that SCOTUS isn't going to disenfranchise tens of millions of people, this lawsuit misses the fact that you'd also have to disenfranchise the electors from all the other states where mail in voting was allowed.
So, goodbye Utah. Goodbye Alaska.
There's be hardly anyone left - and it's far from clear what remained would be Trump-friendly.
1) If you assume that Biden and Clinton got the same number of votes from the same people, the probability of Biden winning the election is zero.
2) If you assume that the votes coming in to be counted arrived at random, once Trump was ahead at 3am, the probability of Biden then turning that lead around is one in 4 quadrillion.0 -
Just in case anyone thinks I'm exaggerating about the idiocy of that lawsuit, here's the actual text:
I don't suppose this guy bets...
10. The probability of former Vice President
Biden winning the popular vote in the four Defendant
States—Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and
Wisconsin—independently given President Trump’s
early lead in those States as of 3 a.m. on November 4,
2020, is less than one in a quadrillion, or 1 in
1,000,000,000,000,000. For former Vice President
Biden to win these four States collectively, the odds of
that event happening decrease to less than one in a
quadrillion to the fourth power (i.e., 1 in
1,000,000,000,000,0004). See Decl. of Charles J.
Cicchetti, Ph.D. (“Cicchetti Decl.”) at ¶¶ 14-21, 30-31.
See App. 4a-7a, 9a.
11. The same less than one in a quadrillion
statistical improbability of Mr. Biden winning the
popular vote in the four Defendant States—Georgia,
Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—
independently exists when Mr. Biden’s performance
in each of those Defendant States is compared to
former Secretary of State Hilary Clinton’s
performance in the 2016 general election and
President Trump’s performance in the 2016 and 2020
general elections. Again, the statistical improbability
of Mr. Biden winning the popular vote in these four
States collectively is 1 in 1,000,000,000,000,0005. Id.
10-13, 17-21, 30-31.
https://www.democracydocket.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/45/2020/12/Texas-v.-Pennsylvania-et-al.-US-Supreme-Court-Motion-To-File-Bill-of-Complaint.pdf1 -
He doesn't want to go on the cart...SirNorfolkPassmore said:
*ppppffffftttttt*HYUFD said:0 -
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https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/dec/09/covid-driven-recession-likely-to-push-2m-uk-families-into-poverty
Destitution levels in Great Britain are expected to double in the wake of the pandemic with an estimated 2 million families, including a million children, likely to struggle to afford to feed themselves, stay warm, or keep clean as the recession deepens, according to a study.
The estimates, carried out for the Joseph Rowntree Foundation (JRF), described “increasing, intensifying” levels of extreme poverty experienced by some of the country’s poorest households in recent years, and highlight a social security system increasingly failing to protect society’s most vulnerable.
Cuts in social security rates over the past decade, together with design flaws in universal credit and disability benefits, as well as the harsh impact of welfare reforms such as benefit caps, were driving sharp rises in extreme poverty even before Covid struck, the study says.
Destitution was most salient in areas of the north-east and north-west of England, and parts of inner London. Over one in every 100 households in Blackpool, Kingston upon Hull, Liverpool, Manchester, Middlesbrough, Newcastle upon Tyne, Nottingham and Salford were in extreme poverty.
The study defines destitution as inability to afford two or more of shelter, food, heating, lighting, weather-appropriate clothing, or basic toiletries over the past month, or a weekly income after housing costs of or below £70 for a single adult or £145 for a couple with two children.
Over half of destitute individuals most commonly lacked food, followed by suitable clothing (49%) and basic toiletries (43%). A third of destitute households reported no income at all. While single people were most likely to be destitute, families – especially lone mothers – were increasingly at risk, the study said.0 -
Doesn’t that breach quarantine and put her at risk?HYUFD said:3 -
That's interesting. I was a remainer and I'm pretty adjusted and chilled to the whole thing now.williamglenn said:0 -
Which paper is this in reality?YBarddCwsc said:The Daily Merkle i
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Danny Fink in the Times today
the people responsible for Brexit are the people who advocated it. The people responsible for a hard Brexit are those people who led us towards it.
Not David Cameron or Jeremy Corbyn or Theresa May or Alistair Campbell or George Osborne or Oliver Letwin or Gina Miller or John Bercow or Yvette Cooper or Jo Swinson. Or, thank you very much, me. We were all just doing what we thought was right. People are responsible for their own tactics and tactical errors. But Brexit? That’s down to those who campaigned for it. If a hard Brexit is a great success it isn’t to our credit. And if it’s a failure it wasn’t our fault.
It’s time for those people who came up with this plan to tell us what they imagine comes next.6 -
He’s perhaps referring to that renowned businessperson Donald Trump ?FrancisUrquhart said:This guy isn't taking about Brexit (I doubt he is even aware of it), but i.thought.coincedentally rather apt.
https://twitter.com/taylorcaby/status/1336359698170339333?s=190 -
Today prog has piece on the 2020 Bad Sex award being cancelled ('the public have suffered enough this year') followed by 'When Boris met Ursula' schtick about the upcoming epochal tryst.
Coincidence? I DON'T THINK SO!0 -
I wonder if we might see something like a point or two of growth next year, with a few percentage points subtracted from the average Covid bounceback of neighbouring countries because of Brexit. There could be even more than the 2 million families in destitution predicted by the study below by the end of the year, if that's the case.0
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Vaccine anecdote. My wife was talking with co-workers in the staff room yesterday and 3 out the 4 said they didnt want the vaccine. All were health care assistants rather than doctors or nurses but I still find this a bit worrying/surprising.0
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That wouldn’t be bad sex. Screwing 300 million people all at once would be the best bang since the Big One.Theuniondivvie said:Today prog has piece on the 2020 Bad Sex award being cancelled ('the public have suffered enough this year') followed by 'When Boris met Ursula' schtick about the upcoming epochal tryst.
Coincidence? I DON'T THINK SO!0 -
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So? Makes no difference to Betfair.Scott_xP said:0 -
It gets him through one or two news cycles, for sure. The he has to deal with the consequences of what he has done. That means finding solutions and delivering on the promises he has made. We have been promised a golden tomorrow. It starts on 1st January. Johnson has to deliver.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
I've disagreed with him on a lot, but HYUFD is making a reasonable point here. The poll is good for Johnson in terms of the expectation game - if he fails to get a deal, he's met expectations but if he gets one, he's beaten them. A poll showing 64% expected a deal would be more worrying for him.Gallowgate said:
Good luck with thatHYUFD said:
No but it does mean if Boris gets a Deal he can present himself as a genius who conjured a brilliant Deal from nothing and won against the odds once again and the man on the Clapham Omnibus might well believe him yet againDecrepiterJohnL said:On-topic, does it really matter whether the man on the Clapham omnibus thinks a deal is likely?
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Does he?SouthamObserver said:We have been promised a golden tomorrow. It starts on 1st January. Johnson has to deliver.
Look at Scotland.
The SNP have delivered a catastrophic degradation in education, pissed 100s of millions up the wall in failed vanity projects, are beset with scandal and intrigue, and on course for a thumping win.
People are still buying the BoZo myth1 -
That's quite an interview. Be careful what you wish for!Mysticrose said:
That's interesting. I was a remainer and I'm pretty adjusted and chilled to the whole thing now.williamglenn said:0 -
You wonder what will actually cause Betfair to pay out. Will they pay out when the electors meet? When the Senate counts the vote? When Biden is inaugurated? When Trump dies?MarqueeMark said:
So? Makes no difference to Betfair.Scott_xP said:
Whenever they do pay out, I think they will find it much harder to attract punters next time. They’ve Ratnerised their brand to quite devastating effect by saying they will do as they please, not as they promise.2 -
I’ll put you down as a ‘maybe,’ Scott!Scott_xP said:
Does he?SouthamObserver said:We have been promised a golden tomorrow. It starts on 1st January. Johnson has to deliver.
Look at Scotland.
The SNP have delivered a catastrophic degradation in education, pissed 100s of millions up the wall in failed vanity projects, are beset with scandal and intrigue, and on course for a thumping win.
People are still buying the BoZo myth0 -
There is a report this morning that the UK will suspend tariffs against Boeing that the EU introduced to protect Airbus
How long can Airbus keep the UK factory open under those circumstances?0 -
The difference is that the SNP have not yet delivered independence so can still make consequence-free promises about it. The full Brexit happens from 1st January. Of course, die-hard Brexiteers will never, ever accept that it has failed or that it is not a triumph, but that is not everyone who voted Leave.Scott_xP said:
Does he?SouthamObserver said:We have been promised a golden tomorrow. It starts on 1st January. Johnson has to deliver.
Look at Scotland.
The SNP have delivered a catastrophic degradation in education, pissed 100s of millions up the wall in failed vanity projects, are beset with scandal and intrigue, and on course for a thumping win.
People are still buying the BoZo myth
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Indeed. Betfair are the only people who have come out of the 2020 US election worse off than Donald Trump.ydoethur said:
You wonder what will actually cause Betfair to pay out. Will they pay out when the electors meet? When the Senate counts the vote? When Biden is inaugurated? When Trump dies?MarqueeMark said:
So? Makes no difference to Betfair.Scott_xP said:
Whenever they do pay out, I think they will find it much harder to attract punters next time. They’ve Ratnerised their brand to quite devastating effect by saying they will do as they please, not as they promise.0 -
After the withdrawal of the illegal clauses over Northern Ireland, that doesn't sound particularly helpful to building confidence ahead of the Von Der Leyen meeting today, to me.Scott_xP said:There is a report this morning that the UK will suspend tariffs against Boeing that the EU introduced to protect Airbus
How long can Airbus keep the UK factory open under those circumstances?0 -
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But they have been in charge for a decade.SouthamObserver said:The difference is that the SNP have not yet delivered independence so can still make consequence-free promises about it. The full Brexit happens from 1st January. Of course, die-hard Brexiteers will never, ever accept that it has failed or that it is not a triumph, but that is not everyone who voted Leave.
It's like the Brexit government of BoZo is not the same as the Tory governments that preceded it0 -
This is Johnson's challenge after 1st January. We were told time and again that none of this would happen. If it does, what does he do to mitigate it? For the SNP, the challenges will be the same post-independence, but the SNP will have less to worry about as it will have achieved all that was set up to secure. The Tories were never (previously, at least) a one trick pony. They want to stay in power.
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/13364623721863045141 -
SNP look to me, increasingly like the corrupt and complacent Scots Labour hegemony of old.Scott_xP said:
But they have been in charge for a decade.SouthamObserver said:The difference is that the SNP have not yet delivered independence so can still make consequence-free promises about it. The full Brexit happens from 1st January. Of course, die-hard Brexiteers will never, ever accept that it has failed or that it is not a triumph, but that is not everyone who voted Leave.
It's like the Brexit government of BoZo is not the same as the Tory governments that preceded it0 -
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As I say, the big difference is that the SNP has yet to deliver its central policy. On 1st January, Johnson will have done. Of course, it could be that it will not matter. My point is that it does not take a lot of people to realise they have been sold a pup for it all to come tumbling down.Scott_xP said:
But they have been in charge for a decade.SouthamObserver said:The difference is that the SNP have not yet delivered independence so can still make consequence-free promises about it. The full Brexit happens from 1st January. Of course, die-hard Brexiteers will never, ever accept that it has failed or that it is not a triumph, but that is not everyone who voted Leave.
It's like the Brexit government of BoZo is not the same as the Tory governments that preceded it
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Blame the FrenchSouthamObserver said:This is Johnson's challenge after 1st January. We were told time and again that none of this would happen. If it does, what does he do to mitigate it?
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I think that’s very generous to Rudy Giuliani.MarqueeMark said:
Indeed. Betfair are the only people who have come out of the 2020 US election worse off than Donald Trump.ydoethur said:
You wonder what will actually cause Betfair to pay out. Will they pay out when the electors meet? When the Senate counts the vote? When Biden is inaugurated? When Trump dies?MarqueeMark said:
So? Makes no difference to Betfair.Scott_xP said:
Whenever they do pay out, I think they will find it much harder to attract punters next time. They’ve Ratnerised their brand to quite devastating effect by saying they will do as they please, not as they promise.1 -
Of course - and then what?Scott_xP said:
Blame the FrenchSouthamObserver said:This is Johnson's challenge after 1st January. We were told time and again that none of this would happen. If it does, what does he do to mitigate it?
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And that hegemony lasted for over 50 years.Gardenwalker said:
SNP look to me, increasingly like the corrupt and complacent Scots Labour hegemony of old.Scott_xP said:
But they have been in charge for a decade.SouthamObserver said:The difference is that the SNP have not yet delivered independence so can still make consequence-free promises about it. The full Brexit happens from 1st January. Of course, die-hard Brexiteers will never, ever accept that it has failed or that it is not a triumph, but that is not everyone who voted Leave.
It's like the Brexit government of BoZo is not the same as the Tory governments that preceded it0 -
It's worked for the past thousand years.SouthamObserver said:
Of course - and then what?Scott_xP said:
Blame the FrenchSouthamObserver said:This is Johnson's challenge after 1st January. We were told time and again that none of this would happen. If it does, what does he do to mitigate it?
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Do not worry. As with the car factories it takes time to transfer production elsewhere.Scott_xP said:There is a report this morning that the UK will suspend tariffs against Boeing that the EU introduced to protect Airbus
How long can Airbus keep the UK factory open under those circumstances?
They still have a few years left.0 -
This simply isn't true. What would Honda and the logistics companies who supply Honda know about it? There won't be any significant disruption. And because there may be significant disruption can't they simply tear up their global business plan and start stockpiling parts that haven't yet been manufactured in warehouses that don't exist? What do you mean no? Bloody remoaners.Scott_xP said:6 -
In what way is that "news"? The only people who don't think Trump has been soundly beaten on every objective measure are Donald Trump and Betfair. As some of us were saying whilst the polls were still open.Scott_xP said:0 -
According to the BBC this is due to corona, not BrexitRochdalePioneers said:
This simply isn't true. What would Honda and the logistics companies who supply Honda know about it? There won't be any significant disruption. And because there may be significant disruption can't they simply tear up their global business plan and start stockpiling parts that haven't yet been manufactured in warehouses that don't exist? What do you mean no? Bloody remoaners.Scott_xP said:0 -
Hence the problem for Boris, which is surely about to reach a denouement.Scott_xP said:
Annoying as the EU/EEC is, every other Prime Minister since at least Thatcher has recognised that the benefits and annoyances of Eurostuff come as a package. Question their relative weights, sure, but you can't have one without the other.
Borisism has always been about decoupling those things; cake'n'eat it, wife'n'mistress, Europe'n'the world. Six Dinner Sid, beholden to nobody.
If the EU doesn't play that game, which way does he jump? He plumps for sovereignty when it's cost-free in his head. What if it's finally dawning on him that it isn't?1 -
Consensus on R4 Laura & Katya - no deal looking likely because differences on principle rather than details0
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If you can tell me what I got wrong, I’d be happy to. I predicted a narrow Trump win - that was wrong. On the court cases, I said that was the tactic Trump would go for re overturning results and pressurising the states, and condemned it. It’s all in the postsSirNorfolkPassmore said:
A simple "I was wrong on this one" would've sufficed.MrEd said:@TSE no need to worry about me - I know you’re concerned because it’s the second time you suggested prayers for me but I am seriously fine
A few Grand up and just waiting to hear the excuses from many on here when Joe is played like an absolute fiddle by China. That’s if he’s not out before too long (apparently it’s an open secret in DC he’s in cognitive decline and Harris isn’t a popular figure in Congress so the feeling is that, when (and it’s apparently a when, not if) she takes over, things will get even rockier0 -
Excellent news. We left the EU precisely so we could be less protectionist.Scott_xP said:There is a report this morning that the UK will suspend tariffs against Boeing that the EU introduced to protect Airbus
How long can Airbus keep the UK factory open under those circumstances?0 -
Filing this one under "despite".JohnLilburne said:
According to the BBC this is due to corona, not BrexitRochdalePioneers said:
This simply isn't true. What would Honda and the logistics companies who supply Honda know about it? There won't be any significant disruption. And because there may be significant disruption can't they simply tear up their global business plan and start stockpiling parts that haven't yet been manufactured in warehouses that don't exist? What do you mean no? Bloody remoaners.Scott_xP said:0 -
This site should be called ScottRetweet.com3
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Apart from Trump and Betfair there are also millions of Maga enthusiasts who were previously in possession of 207.5 million dollars.MarqueeMark said:
In what way is that "news"? The only people who don't think Trump has been soundly beaten on every objective measure are Donald Trump and Betfair. As some of us were saying whilst the polls were still open.Scott_xP said:1 -
There is £24m available about Biden at 1.03 this morning. Every day since the election there has been extraordinary sums (on both back and lay sides) available on a market that is over.ydoethur said:
You wonder what will actually cause Betfair to pay out. Will they pay out when the electors meet? When the Senate counts the vote? When Biden is inaugurated? When Trump dies?MarqueeMark said:
So? Makes no difference to Betfair.Scott_xP said:
Whenever they do pay out, I think they will find it much harder to attract punters next time. They’ve Ratnerised their brand to quite devastating effect by saying they will do as they please, not as they promise.
The key to understanding the stance that BF are taking is to know who is staking these colossal sums and why.
My hunch is that it is the same people on both sides of the bet - I`ll leave you to speculate why - and that the money`s source is the States. This would explain why BF were keen in their most recent announcement to say that they had consulted US lawyers - I think to placate those "punters" who don`t want the markets to be settled before they absolutely have to be settled. BF is, primarily, seeking to protect these bit hitters over their domestic small-time clients.
BF is doing nicely out of this, but at what risk? "Ratnerification" of their brand may be apt, as a you say.0 -
Indeed. We've got this much disruption and the hard border hasn't even gone in yet. Will be fun next month...JohnLilburne said:
According to the BBC this is due to corona, not BrexitRochdalePioneers said:
This simply isn't true. What would Honda and the logistics companies who supply Honda know about it? There won't be any significant disruption. And because there may be significant disruption can't they simply tear up their global business plan and start stockpiling parts that haven't yet been manufactured in warehouses that don't exist? What do you mean no? Bloody remoaners.Scott_xP said:0 -
Honda and Ford have both announced UK plant closures in the past two years.
Nissan in 2019 ditched plans to build additional models in its Sunderland factory.
Ineos is building its new model 4x4 in France.
Mini will make its Countryman in Germany from 2023.
And this is just the top-of-the-iceberg stuff.0 -
It’s due to neither. Felixstowe's systems have failed and it seems all attempts to fix it have equally failed. That has created logistical nightmares that have created problems everywhere else.JohnLilburne said:
According to the BBC this is due to corona, not BrexitRochdalePioneers said:
This simply isn't true. What would Honda and the logistics companies who supply Honda know about it? There won't be any significant disruption. And because there may be significant disruption can't they simply tear up their global business plan and start stockpiling parts that haven't yet been manufactured in warehouses that don't exist? What do you mean no? Bloody remoaners.Scott_xP said:0 -
Of course it is. How could a shortage of parts now have anything to do with Brexit when we are still operating under the transitional arrangements? The world economy has suffered disruption. This is a consequence.JohnLilburne said:
According to the BBC this is due to corona, not BrexitRochdalePioneers said:
This simply isn't true. What would Honda and the logistics companies who supply Honda know about it? There won't be any significant disruption. And because there may be significant disruption can't they simply tear up their global business plan and start stockpiling parts that haven't yet been manufactured in warehouses that don't exist? What do you mean no? Bloody remoaners.Scott_xP said:
It is just dishonest to claim anything else. But nothing will stop the hyperbole and hysteria.1 -
As I remember it from the reports last month, they've failed because of a combination of a Brexit stockpiling backlog going all the way back to last year , then added to Corona issues too.eek said:
It’s due to neither. Felixstowe's systems have failed and it seems all attempts to fix it have equally failed.JohnLilburne said:
According to the BBC this is due to corona, not BrexitRochdalePioneers said:
This simply isn't true. What would Honda and the logistics companies who supply Honda know about it? There won't be any significant disruption. And because there may be significant disruption can't they simply tear up their global business plan and start stockpiling parts that haven't yet been manufactured in warehouses that don't exist? What do you mean no? Bloody remoaners.Scott_xP said:0 -
Quite! Boeing is an absolute model of free market competition.JohnLilburne said:
Excellent news. We left the EU precisely so we could be less protectionist.Scott_xP said:There is a report this morning that the UK will suspend tariffs against Boeing that the EU introduced to protect Airbus
How long can Airbus keep the UK factory open under those circumstances?1 -
Yes, similar vibes in our staff break room. Mostly HCAs and admin, but often intelligent folk otherwise.paulyork64 said:Vaccine anecdote. My wife was talking with co-workers in the staff room yesterday and 3 out the 4 said they didnt want the vaccine. All were health care assistants rather than doctors or nurses but I still find this a bit worrying/surprising.
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From all the media coverage, the main takeaway is the good news that we have a vaccine, the second takeaway is that this has been achieved in a fraction of the time normally devoted to development and testing. This latter point is bound to make some people nervous.Foxy said:
Yes, similar vibes in our staff break room. Mostly HCAs and admin, but often intelligent folk otherwise.paulyork64 said:Vaccine anecdote. My wife was talking with co-workers in the staff room yesterday and 3 out the 4 said they didnt want the vaccine. All were health care assistants rather than doctors or nurses but I still find this a bit worrying/surprising.
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I don’t think the vaccine should be compulsory.Foxy said:
Yes, similar vibes in our staff break room. Mostly HCAs and admin, but often intelligent folk otherwise.paulyork64 said:Vaccine anecdote. My wife was talking with co-workers in the staff room yesterday and 3 out the 4 said they didnt want the vaccine. All were health care assistants rather than doctors or nurses but I still find this a bit worrying/surprising.
But anti-vaxxers should go to hell.
I bet they all voted Brexit as well.0 -
There is some evidence of stockpiling in anticipation of post-no-deal shortages: this is affecting some building supplies and also feeding through to stocks in DIY stores. This would be because of fear of a no-deal Brexit.DavidL said:
Of course it is. How could a shortage of parts now have anything to do with Brexit when we are still operating under the transitional arrangements? The world economy has suffered disruption. This is a consequence.JohnLilburne said:
According to the BBC this is due to corona, not BrexitRochdalePioneers said:
This simply isn't true. What would Honda and the logistics companies who supply Honda know about it? There won't be any significant disruption. And because there may be significant disruption can't they simply tear up their global business plan and start stockpiling parts that haven't yet been manufactured in warehouses that don't exist? What do you mean no? Bloody remoaners.Scott_xP said:
It is just dishonest to claim anything else. But nothing will stop the hyperbole and hysteria.
Whether having stuff Amazoned to us directly will work as well after 1 January, who can say?1 -
Not sure how the coming closure of the Airbus factories is excellent news. Wings are made here because they are in the same free trade zero tariff zero checks zero delays zone as the factories that make other parts. Won't make any sense at all to continue doing so once we make wing manufacture here an expensive faff.JohnLilburne said:
Excellent news. We left the EU precisely so we could be less protectionist.Scott_xP said:There is a report this morning that the UK will suspend tariffs against Boeing that the EU introduced to protect Airbus
How long can Airbus keep the UK factory open under those circumstances?
And its the same with the car industry. Major components that cross the channel multiple times before completion - when each crossing involves reams of paperwork and delays (and possibly tariffs) why bother when you can keep it all inside the same zone?
North East Tories foam on about the Hitachi plant in Newton Aycliffe. They don't get that it does literally nothing that Hitachi can't do at their factory in Italy, with production of various train fleets already produced in tandem in both plants or exclusively in Italy. Why bother with the costs and delays of importing all the parts to the UK when you can avoid all those costs and built in Italy?
No deal knackers all of these industries. A deal involving full customs and standards checks knackers these industries. We keep signing continuity deals with people - the sovereign right to carry on with the existing deal. That is the only hope for British industry. A continuity EU deal. No need for delays and checks and tariffs where trade flows free and unimpeded across the border.3 -
The polling suggests it is the youngest cohort who are least keen.Gardenwalker said:
I don’t think the vaccine should be compulsory.Foxy said:
Yes, similar vibes in our staff break room. Mostly HCAs and admin, but often intelligent folk otherwise.paulyork64 said:Vaccine anecdote. My wife was talking with co-workers in the staff room yesterday and 3 out the 4 said they didnt want the vaccine. All were health care assistants rather than doctors or nurses but I still find this a bit worrying/surprising.
But anti-vaxxers should go to hell.
I bet they all voted Brexit as well.0 -
Time was, of course, when we even owned part of Airbus, but that was all far too long-term and strategic, and not sufficiently enough respectful of the "Invisible hand".RochdalePioneers said:
Not sure how the coming closure of the Airbus factories is excellent news. Wings are made here because they are in the same free trade zero tariff zero checks zero delays zone as the factories that make other parts. Won't make any sense at all to continue doing so once we make wing manufacture here an expensive faff.JohnLilburne said:
Excellent news. We left the EU precisely so we could be less protectionist.Scott_xP said:There is a report this morning that the UK will suspend tariffs against Boeing that the EU introduced to protect Airbus
How long can Airbus keep the UK factory open under those circumstances?
And its the same with the car industry. Major components that cross the channel multiple times before completion - when each crossing involves reams of paperwork and delays (and possibly tariffs) why bother when you can keep it all inside the same zone?
North East Tories foam on about the Hitachi plant in Newton Aycliffe. They don't get that it does literally nothing that Hitachi can't do at their factory in Italy, with production of various train fleets already produced in tandem in both plants or exclusively in Italy. Why bother with the costs and delays of importing all the parts to the UK when you can avoid all those costs and built in Italy?
No deal knackers all of these industries. A deal involving full customs and standards checks knackers these industries. We keep signing continuity deals with people - the sovereign right to carry on with the existing deal. That is the only hope for British industry. A continuity EU deal. No need for delays and checks and tariffs where trade flows free and unimpeded across the border.0 -
There was some frankly unnecessary appreciation of Owen Jones on this board last night.
This tweet is more accurate appraisal of OJ.
https://twitter.com/leonardocarella/status/1336292601306230785?s=210 -
Slightly worrying as there were 11 000 containers of PPE and other supplies sitting there. Now being shifted to vacant lots all around East anglia.eek said:
It’s due to neither. Felixstowe's systems have failed and it seems all attempts to fix it have equally failed. That has created logistical nightmares that have created problems everywhere else.JohnLilburne said:
According to the BBC this is due to corona, not BrexitRochdalePioneers said:
This simply isn't true. What would Honda and the logistics companies who supply Honda know about it? There won't be any significant disruption. And because there may be significant disruption can't they simply tear up their global business plan and start stockpiling parts that haven't yet been manufactured in warehouses that don't exist? What do you mean no? Bloody remoaners.Scott_xP said:
https://www.eadt.co.uk/news/ppe-moved-to-suffolk-airfields-1-6931841
I hope someone has some good warehousing inventory software to know what is where....
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Nissan cut back as part of a worldwide model reviewGardenwalker said:Honda and Ford have both announced UK plant closures in the past two years.
Nissan in 2019 ditched plans to build additional models in its Sunderland factory.
Ineos is building its new model 4x4 in France.
Mini will make its Countryman in Germany from 2023.
And this is just the top-of-the-iceberg stuff.
Ford is closing 6 plants in Europe
Ineos have been bribed by MB to take their biggest problem off their hands - it will be a disaster
Mini Contryman is produced in Austria and Netherlands atm
Really you know sod all about automotive.1 -
Warehouses are literally rammed full of everything you can think of. There is a shortage of wooden pallets. There is a major lack of chilled and frozen space. Yes the pox is a disruptor, but the supply chains in France aren't looking like ours - the variable is Brexit, and to quote DavidL it is not just dishonest to claim Brexit isn't the driving issue but downright delusional.IanB2 said:
There is some evidence of stockpiling in anticipation of post-no-deal shortages: this is affecting some building supplies and also feeding through to stocks in DIY stores. This would be because of fear of a no-deal Brexit.DavidL said:
Of course it is. How could a shortage of parts now have anything to do with Brexit when we are still operating under the transitional arrangements? The world economy has suffered disruption. This is a consequence.JohnLilburne said:
According to the BBC this is due to corona, not BrexitRochdalePioneers said:
This simply isn't true. What would Honda and the logistics companies who supply Honda know about it? There won't be any significant disruption. And because there may be significant disruption can't they simply tear up their global business plan and start stockpiling parts that haven't yet been manufactured in warehouses that don't exist? What do you mean no? Bloody remoaners.Scott_xP said:
It is just dishonest to claim anything else. But nothing will stop the hyperbole and hysteria.
Whether having stuff Amazoned to us directly will work as well after 1 January, who can say?
Go and ask anyone in any supply chain what their problem is. They don't know the arrangements in 3 weeks time. They don't know what paperwork will be needed. They don't know how long it will take for things to arrive. They don't know how much anything will cost.0 -
There’s always a reason it’s not Brexit.Alanbrooke said:
Nissan cut back as part of a worldwide model reviewGardenwalker said:Honda and Ford have both announced UK plant closures in the past two years.
Nissan in 2019 ditched plans to build additional models in its Sunderland factory.
Ineos is building its new model 4x4 in France.
Mini will make its Countryman in Germany from 2023.
And this is just the top-of-the-iceberg stuff.
Ford is closing 6 plants in Europe
Ineos have been bribed by MB to take their biggest problem off their hands - it will be a disaster
Mini Contryman is produced in Austria and Netherlands atm
Really you know sod all about automotive.
Funny that.3
This discussion has been closed.