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In The Bleak Midwinter – politicalbetting.com

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  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840

    Even Jezza is sitting there thinking crickey he is spending a lot of money....

    This is the most economically left wing government elected since 1974. At least.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,004
    edited November 2020

    Dodds doesn’t thank Rishi for early sight of his statement? Didn’t get it or bad manners?

    She has written her response anyway and it is so predictable
  • HYUFD said:
    Hold on a sec.

    Wasn't the theory of Brexit economics that we'd have a Nike Swoosh?

    Of course, there'd be teething troubles, but then the UK would leap into a glorious prosperous future.

    Not much sign of a swoosh on that model, with or without Covid.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,059

    Andy_JS said:
    Starmer so underwhelming, people are prepared to consider the LibDems again in desperation?
    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1331250983792496642

  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    Imagine you are a backbench MP in the tory party.

    What have you got to sell to your constituents for the next four years? the next 10 after that?

    F8ck all that's what. A vast and freezing tundra of taxes and authoritarianism.

    You idiots. You stupid stupid idiots.

  • Immediately Annelise Dodds starts whinging that the government isn't spending enough.

    Who could have foreseen that?

    Maybe she didn’t see the statement before hand - if she did, she hasn’t read it.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,793
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    Tegnell talks realistically.

    Top epidemiologist says Sweden has no signs of herd immunity curbing coronavirus
    https://thehill.com/policy/international/europe/527478-top-epidemiologist-says-sweden-has-no-signs-of-herd-immunity-curbing-coronavirus
    Sweden's top infectious disease expert said Tuesday that the country has not seen evidence of herd immunity slowing the spread of the coronavirus in the country.

    “The issue of herd immunity is difficult,” Anders Tegnell, Sweden's state epidemiologist, said at a news briefing, according to Bloomberg News.

    “We see no signs of immunity in the population that are slowing down the infection right now," Tegnell said...

    ...“I want to make it clear, no, we did not lock down like many other countries, but we definitely had a virtual lockdown,” Tegnell said. “Swedes changed their behavior enormously. We stopped travelling even more than our neighboring countries. The airports had no flights anywhere, the trains were running at a few per cent of normal service, so there were enormous changes in society.”

    Bloomberg noted that Swedes have faced more exposure to the coronavirus than residents in other Nordic areas and data published this week showed that every third person tested in Stockholm has tested positive for antibodies.

    Meanwhile, recent lockdown in London seems to have made no difference.

    https://twitter.com/timspector/status/1331556653716697089
    Not to be funny, but if you were to show the graph up until end of October and then extrapolate the November figures from it before they had happened, I think you’d have been challenged if you’d said that the former impled the latter.

    To end of October, you’ve got a steady rise, mitigated by a dip at half term.
    Through November, you’ve got a flat line.

    I would have assumed that something changed at the start of November to flatten it, without any other information input. Wouldn’t you?
    Tbh, the flat line starts before the end of October.
    If I’d been shown that at the end of October and before lockdown, I would have assumed a temporary dip caused by half term that was expiring at the end of October.

    We have the rise starting at the beginning of September. Separately, we have estimates that schools being open add 0.25 to R, and, since that date, ONS surveys showing a big rise in infections in school-aged children since schools reopened (especially secondary school children). We also have seen migration of infection from infectees of that age to older demographics.

    The rise between then and the end of October is linear. Given that viruses spread exponentially, and with no further input data, I would speculate from the graph alone that levels of restrictions were being progressively increased, but not by enough to flatten it.

    The dip in late October correlates with a dip in secondary school aged children in the ONS survey, which ended and resumed an upwards slope after about a week. This coincided with half term, and correlates well with the earlier estimates that schools being open adds to the infection rate.

    I would therefore expect, in a counterfactual, that the linear rise would have resumed through November without other measures being taken.

    Essentially, I would say it points to:

    - Half term/schools being closed + Tiered restrictions pull R below 1.
    - Tier 4/soft lockdown + schools being open hold R at 1.

    A corollary would be that a long Christmas break would obviate need for the current lockdown (unless there was otherwise increased mixing - which we fully expect to happen, anyway).
    These is case data which has a 10 day lag from infection to registering the case. The levelling off in London started before half term.
    That's very strange, then, because their slope ties up well with the ONS survey slope without that time shift, but with such a time shift, it looks very different. No idea.
  • £4bn levelling up fund

    Any local area will be able to bid directly to fund local projects
    Administered between Treasury, DfT and Local Government
    The projects must command local support and from the MP

    How many white elephants will this be wasted on?
  • Imagine you are a backbench MP in the tory party.

    What have you got to sell to your constituents for the next four years? the next 10 after that?

    F8ck all that's what. A vast and freezing tundra of taxes and authoritarianism.

    You idiots. You stupid stupid idiots.

    Hahahahaha
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    Even Jezza is sitting there thinking crickey he is spending a lot of money....

    ROFL.....priceless...
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653
    dixiedean said:

    Even Jezza is sitting there thinking crickey he is spending a lot of money....

    This is the most economically left wing government elected since 1974. At least.
    ?? Are you suggesting that the government would have tanked public finances if there wasn`t a pandemic to deal with?
  • dixiedean said:

    Even Jezza is sitting there thinking crickey he is spending a lot of money....

    This is the most economically left wing government elected since 1974. At least.
    Is Starmer LP going to morph into a Tory-esque government to mop up the mess?
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556

    Imagine you are a backbench MP in the tory party.

    What have you got to sell to your constituents for the next four years? the next 10 after that?

    F8ck all that's what. A vast and freezing tundra of taxes and authoritarianism.

    You idiots. You stupid stupid idiots.

    Those bloody idiots, not following Donald Trump's path to electoral success...
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,840
    Roy_G_Biv said:

    theakes said:

    Why can't our politicians follow Trudeau's example, "if you are thinking of going to visit family, especially eldrely relatives, DON'T. So much simpler.

    Uh oh. Trudeau = far-right trigger
    Peculiar isn't it? The British politician he reminds me most of is, erm, David Cameron.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    dixiedean said:

    Even Jezza is sitting there thinking crickey he is spending a lot of money....

    This is the most economically left wing government elected since 1974. At least.
    Is Starmer LP going to morph into a Tory-esque government to mop up the mess?
    He will need Ed Davey's support and Iain Blackford's support to become PM on current polls so maybe
  • HYUFD said:
    Hold on a sec.

    Wasn't the theory of Brexit economics that we'd have a Nike Swoosh?

    Of course, there'd be teething troubles, but then the UK would leap into a glorious prosperous future.

    Not much sign of a swoosh on that model, with or without Covid.
    Yes there is. Every single year from next year onwards is growing higher than had previously been predicted.

    Personally I suspect the 2022 figures are pessimistic.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653

    Imagine you are a backbench MP in the tory party.

    What have you got to sell to your constituents for the next four years? the next 10 after that?

    F8ck all that's what. A vast and freezing tundra of taxes and authoritarianism.

    You idiots. You stupid stupid idiots.

    "A vast and freezing tundra of taxes and authoritarianism." I suppose the message has to be that it would have been even worse under Labour. Which it would.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    Does anybody else think that the bluntness of Sunak's language suggests he may not be totally on board with the tiering system?
  • Why are people still surprised that a populist government run by journalists that only care about today and tomorrows media headlines is not a traditional conservative government? It won't be conservative on spending or anything else.
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047
    So a pro-British government. An anti-European government. Promoting the interests of the traditional working classes and of the establishment. Pandering to sentiment. What could we call this? How about National Socialism?
  • Imagine you are a backbench MP in the tory party.

    What have you got to sell to your constituents for the next four years? the next 10 after that?

    F8ck all that's what. A vast and freezing tundra of taxes and authoritarianism.

    You idiots. You stupid stupid idiots.

    In case you missed it there's a pandemic going on and that is hitting the economy in every high population density western economy around the western world.

    No matter what we would face an economic catastrophe.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,059
    I think Starmers "one rule for the public another for the Prime Minster and his friends" is a line we are going to be hearing a lot of.
  • Why are people still surprised that a populist government run by journalists that only care about today and tomorrows media headlines is not a traditional conservative government? It won't be conservative on spending or anything else.

    But.. but.. "One Nation" Conservative?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,625

    £4bn levelling up fund

    Any local area will be able to bid directly to fund local projects
    Administered between Treasury, DfT and Local Government
    The projects must command local support and from the MP

    How many white elephants will this be wasted on?

    Given the ability to fund ground nut schemes* inherent in the existing mechanisms - almost certainly less.

    *I still remember with joy talking an MP into believing that the solution to the global warming was in oil from peanuts farmed in West Africa.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    Why are people still surprised that a populist government run by journalists that only care about today and tomorrows media headlines is not a traditional conservative government? It won't be conservative on spending or anything else.

    Sunak has just announced a cut in overseas aid spending and a freeze in most public sector pay, that is being more conservative on spending
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,981
    edited November 2020
    Stocky said:

    Imagine you are a backbench MP in the tory party.

    What have you got to sell to your constituents for the next four years? the next 10 after that?

    F8ck all that's what. A vast and freezing tundra of taxes and authoritarianism.

    You idiots. You stupid stupid idiots.

    "A vast and freezing tundra of taxes and authoritarianism." I suppose the message has to be that it would have been even worse under Labour. Which it would.
    What? You mean that somehow Labour would have spent more than Sunak or been more authoritarian than Boris? Or more wilfully stupid than the ERG?

    Are you suggesting that Labour's policy might be summed up by the phrase "F*** business?"
  • Fenman said:

    So a pro-British government. An anti-European government. Promoting the interests of the traditional working classes and of the establishment. Pandering to sentiment. What could we call this? How about National Socialism?

    No, that's a ridiculous thing to say.
  • Stocky said:

    Imagine you are a backbench MP in the tory party.

    What have you got to sell to your constituents for the next four years? the next 10 after that?

    F8ck all that's what. A vast and freezing tundra of taxes and authoritarianism.

    You idiots. You stupid stupid idiots.

    "A vast and freezing tundra of taxes and authoritarianism." I suppose the message has to be that it would have been even worse under Labour. Which it would.
    What? You mean that somehow Labour would have spent more than Sunak or been more authoritarian than Boris? Or more wilfully stupid than the ERG?

    Are you suggesting that Labour's policy might be summed up by the phrase "F*** business?"
    Yes, yes, yes and yes.
  • Can Boris tomorrow please announce a new Tier 4 - MPs not allowed out - and apply it to Oxford only? No Dodds or Moran, relief all round!
  • HYUFD said:

    Why are people still surprised that a populist government run by journalists that only care about today and tomorrows media headlines is not a traditional conservative government? It won't be conservative on spending or anything else.

    Sunak has just announced a cut in overseas aid spending and a freeze in most public sector pay, that is being more conservative on spending
    Keep the good fight going!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    MattW said:

    kinabalu said:

    Good morning

    I have sympathy with Cyclefree and her piece but the nature of this pandemic has been to devastate the hospitality and travel industry and, while help has been given, it was always going to have constraints with the huge demands from other sectors, not least the health and care sector

    With the vaccine on the horizon let us all hope that by mid 2021 these industries will see a sharp uptake in demand and begin their road to recovery

    On foreign aid I have no issue with reducing it, but as has been suggested some of the savings should be folded into the vaccine programmes to directly help third world countries with their own vaccinations

    On public sector pay freeze I support it purely on the grounds of fairness and expect mp's to lead by example. Additionally I would support abolishing the triple lock thereby freezing our own pension rise next year

    On Brexit a deal is really needed, indeed as far as I am concerned any deal, but our relationship with Europe will develop over many years and may eventually lead to 'de facto' membership and at the very least membership of the single market

    On Christmas I fail to understand why people just cannot see the safest thing is to treat this Christmas as if we are in lockdown and curtail family gatherings in the greater interest of all of us. No matter the four nations agreeing a convoluted number of rules for this year, my wife and I have already cancelled Christmas day for the 10 of us and will spend it on our own at our on home.

    Better safe than sorry

    Good post. Re freezing the wages of public sector workers, the government must gain the moral authority to do things like this by also enacting measures which extract a significant contribution to the cost of the pandemic from the relatively affluent. There are many such people in this country and many ways to do it. If the government flunk this aspect it will be a case of "same old Tories" and I predict big trouble. They got away with it last time - making the poor bear much of the pain for the collapse of the financial sector - but I don't think the trick can be repeated. Perhaps Johnson & Co realize this themselves. I hope they do. If so there will be a serious attempt to make "those with the largest shoulders bear the load" in reality rather than as platitudinous soundbite.
    Agree - good post.

    On foreign aid I am not sure that a reduction to say 0.5% would do that much harm.

    There was an interesting session on "Wealth Taxin the light of COVID" in Parliament the other day. One aspect was an attempt to brand IHT and CGT as 'wealth taxes'.

    Another was a suggestion that the amount to be raised could be £250-500bn over several years, which is a little loopy - ask Mgr Hollande.

    But enough unanimity that reform of things like Stamp Duty to a more continuous setup may be imaginable.
    I'd say that IHT and CGT are wealth taxes. Any tax levied on assets rather than revenue fits that bill imo.
    Warren started to call her new tax the ultra-millionaire tax instead of a wealth tax. Multi-millionaire would fit better here, but I think differentiating between normal taxes on wealth like IHT and CGT, and taxing the super elite is important to get enough of the middles classes supporting it.

    The super elite avoid IHT in particular through trusts, so it is a middle class wealth tax rather than an elite wealth tax.
    Yes there's a difference between a tax on wealth and a tax on the wealthY. For example, I'd say an income tax of say 75% on earnings over £1m p/a is not a wealth tax in the first sense but it is in the second. In practice I think you have to be catching people who are relatively affluent but are not rich. The top decile perhaps. Not sure. One would have to look at the numbers. The trouble with just targeting the truly rich is that it doesn't raise enough.
    It would if you shook up the treatment of trusts. Credit Suisse have the top 1% owning 24% of the UK.
    Really? Remarkable. So what sort of measures could unlock that iyo?
    Ask a tax trust specialist! From a maths point of view, annual wealth tax of 1% on the top 1% of asset owners in the UK, would raise about £30-35bn extra per year. You wont get full compliance but dont see why half of that isnt achievable.
    It won't be easy but I think something along these lines has become a must-do. These debt and borrowing figures are horrendous. Unless you believe in MMT (modern monetary theory, magic money tree) it is the UK population who must pay and it would be unconscionable if the burden is largely escaped by those best placed to afford it. Wealth Tax, come on down. You're on the show.
  • Stocky said:

    dixiedean said:

    Even Jezza is sitting there thinking crickey he is spending a lot of money....

    This is the most economically left wing government elected since 1974. At least.
    ?? Are you suggesting that the government would have tanked public finances if there wasn`t a pandemic to deal with?
    Why not?

    (Hint: Dover!)
  • MaxPB said:

    Sensible compromise for public sector wages. Prioritise the lowest earners and the NHS.

    I'm sorry it isn't. Teachers have had an enormously difficult task this year and they are being shat on from a great height with this pay freeze. Cut the aid budget to zero and give teachers a payrise.
    Not just that. There was a manifesto plan to increase the starting salary for new teachers to £30 000 by 2022/3. Details were always sketchy (how it was going to be funded, whether the starting salary would basically become the career salary...) but it was a good headline. There will still be time to meet that promise (duty of the Prime Minister yada yada), but it's much harder to see how.

    But I get the populism. Everyone loves Doctors and Nurses. Deep down, everyone is suspicious of other people working in the NHS, because the money should be spent on more doctors and nurses. Everyone hates teachers, and BoJo elegantly shifted the blame for schools being closed onto them in the Spring.

    You're right. Shat on from a great height.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653

    Stocky said:

    Imagine you are a backbench MP in the tory party.

    What have you got to sell to your constituents for the next four years? the next 10 after that?

    F8ck all that's what. A vast and freezing tundra of taxes and authoritarianism.

    You idiots. You stupid stupid idiots.

    "A vast and freezing tundra of taxes and authoritarianism." I suppose the message has to be that it would have been even worse under Labour. Which it would.
    What? You mean that somehow Labour would have spent more than Sunak or been more authoritarian than Boris? Or more wilfully stupid than the ERG?

    Are you suggesting that Labour's policy might be summed up by the phrase "F*** business?"
    Of course Labour would have spent more than Sunak. At every turn they have said it`s not enough. Of course they would have been more authoritarian - they are far more happy to curtail liberty than CP is.

    Not sure what ERG have got to do with it.

    As for fund business - I`ve got long tired of that Boris brain fart.
  • Can Boris tomorrow please announce a new Tier 4 - MPs not allowed out - and apply it to Oxford only? No Dodds or Moran, relief all round!

    oh you
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    We've found £4bn for Tory MPs to bribe their constituents but we can't give teachers a well deserved payrise after asking them to take enormous health risks everyday just by going to work.

    I don't see any way back for me to vote Tory for a very long time.
  • Stocky said:

    Imagine you are a backbench MP in the tory party.

    What have you got to sell to your constituents for the next four years? the next 10 after that?

    F8ck all that's what. A vast and freezing tundra of taxes and authoritarianism.

    You idiots. You stupid stupid idiots.

    "A vast and freezing tundra of taxes and authoritarianism." I suppose the message has to be that it would have been even worse under Labour. Which it would.

    Are you suggesting that Labour's policy might be summed up by the phrase "F*** business?"
    It certainly was under corbyn..who knows what this lot think, they don't know themselves.
  • Not sure how we get to £394bn borrowing. We are tracking well under OBR forecast of £374bn. Even allowing for a second lockdown.

    The ONS did revise down spending in the year to date £16bn last week* so that helped.

    (*I normally whine about their propensity to overstate borrowing, but I'll give them the benefit of the doubt with COVID!)
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited November 2020
    MaxPB said:

    We've found £4bn for Tory MPs to bribe their constituents but we can't give teachers a well deserved payrise after asking them to take enormous health risks everyday just by going to work.

    I don't see any way back for me to vote Tory for a very long time.

    Teachers haven't had a pay cut or job losses, or worried about losing their life's savings invested into their business. That puts them in a better position than much of the nation.

    There are fates much worse than going a single year without a pay rise.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    Not sure how we get to £394bn borrowing. We are tracking well under OBR forecast of £374bn. Even allowing for a second lockdown.

    The ONS did revise down spending in the year to date £16bn last week* so that helped.

    (*I normally whine about their propensity to overstate borrowing, but I'll give them the benefit of the doubt with COVID!)

    Second wave hitting the economy harder than the current OBR forecast I guess.
  • kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    MattW said:

    kinabalu said:

    Good morning

    I have sympathy with Cyclefree and her piece but the nature of this pandemic has been to devastate the hospitality and travel industry and, while help has been given, it was always going to have constraints with the huge demands from other sectors, not least the health and care sector

    With the vaccine on the horizon let us all hope that by mid 2021 these industries will see a sharp uptake in demand and begin their road to recovery

    On foreign aid I have no issue with reducing it, but as has been suggested some of the savings should be folded into the vaccine programmes to directly help third world countries with their own vaccinations

    On public sector pay freeze I support it purely on the grounds of fairness and expect mp's to lead by example. Additionally I would support abolishing the triple lock thereby freezing our own pension rise next year

    On Brexit a deal is really needed, indeed as far as I am concerned any deal, but our relationship with Europe will develop over many years and may eventually lead to 'de facto' membership and at the very least membership of the single market

    On Christmas I fail to understand why people just cannot see the safest thing is to treat this Christmas as if we are in lockdown and curtail family gatherings in the greater interest of all of us. No matter the four nations agreeing a convoluted number of rules for this year, my wife and I have already cancelled Christmas day for the 10 of us and will spend it on our own at our on home.

    Better safe than sorry

    Good post. Re freezing the wages of public sector workers, the government must gain the moral authority to do things like this by also enacting measures which extract a significant contribution to the cost of the pandemic from the relatively affluent. There are many such people in this country and many ways to do it. If the government flunk this aspect it will be a case of "same old Tories" and I predict big trouble. They got away with it last time - making the poor bear much of the pain for the collapse of the financial sector - but I don't think the trick can be repeated. Perhaps Johnson & Co realize this themselves. I hope they do. If so there will be a serious attempt to make "those with the largest shoulders bear the load" in reality rather than as platitudinous soundbite.
    Agree - good post.

    On foreign aid I am not sure that a reduction to say 0.5% would do that much harm.

    There was an interesting session on "Wealth Taxin the light of COVID" in Parliament the other day. One aspect was an attempt to brand IHT and CGT as 'wealth taxes'.

    Another was a suggestion that the amount to be raised could be £250-500bn over several years, which is a little loopy - ask Mgr Hollande.

    But enough unanimity that reform of things like Stamp Duty to a more continuous setup may be imaginable.
    I'd say that IHT and CGT are wealth taxes. Any tax levied on assets rather than revenue fits that bill imo.
    Warren started to call her new tax the ultra-millionaire tax instead of a wealth tax. Multi-millionaire would fit better here, but I think differentiating between normal taxes on wealth like IHT and CGT, and taxing the super elite is important to get enough of the middles classes supporting it.

    The super elite avoid IHT in particular through trusts, so it is a middle class wealth tax rather than an elite wealth tax.
    Yes there's a difference between a tax on wealth and a tax on the wealthY. For example, I'd say an income tax of say 75% on earnings over £1m p/a is not a wealth tax in the first sense but it is in the second. In practice I think you have to be catching people who are relatively affluent but are not rich. The top decile perhaps. Not sure. One would have to look at the numbers. The trouble with just targeting the truly rich is that it doesn't raise enough.
    It would if you shook up the treatment of trusts. Credit Suisse have the top 1% owning 24% of the UK.
    Really? Remarkable. So what sort of measures could unlock that iyo?
    Ask a tax trust specialist! From a maths point of view, annual wealth tax of 1% on the top 1% of asset owners in the UK, would raise about £30-35bn extra per year. You wont get full compliance but dont see why half of that isnt achievable.
    It won't be easy but I think something along these lines has become a must-do. These debt and borrowing figures are horrendous. Unless you believe in MMT (modern monetary theory, magic money tree) it is the UK population who must pay and it would be unconscionable if the burden is largely escaped by those best placed to afford it. Wealth Tax, come on down. You're on the show.
    Unearned wealth yes let's do it. CGT IHT Tax on investment property. Get rid of loopholes eg trusts.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    MaxPB said:

    We've found £4bn for Tory MPs to bribe their constituents but we can't give teachers a well deserved payrise after asking them to take enormous health risks everyday just by going to work.

    I don't see any way back for me to vote Tory for a very long time.

    Teachers haven't had a pay cut or job losses, or worried about losing their life's savings invested into their business. That puts them in a better position than much of the nation.

    There are fates much worse than going a single year without a pay rise.
    We could say the same for NHS workers as well, and yet money has been found to give them a payrise.
  • kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    MattW said:

    kinabalu said:

    Good morning

    I have sympathy with Cyclefree and her piece but the nature of this pandemic has been to devastate the hospitality and travel industry and, while help has been given, it was always going to have constraints with the huge demands from other sectors, not least the health and care sector

    With the vaccine on the horizon let us all hope that by mid 2021 these industries will see a sharp uptake in demand and begin their road to recovery

    On foreign aid I have no issue with reducing it, but as has been suggested some of the savings should be folded into the vaccine programmes to directly help third world countries with their own vaccinations

    On public sector pay freeze I support it purely on the grounds of fairness and expect mp's to lead by example. Additionally I would support abolishing the triple lock thereby freezing our own pension rise next year

    On Brexit a deal is really needed, indeed as far as I am concerned any deal, but our relationship with Europe will develop over many years and may eventually lead to 'de facto' membership and at the very least membership of the single market

    On Christmas I fail to understand why people just cannot see the safest thing is to treat this Christmas as if we are in lockdown and curtail family gatherings in the greater interest of all of us. No matter the four nations agreeing a convoluted number of rules for this year, my wife and I have already cancelled Christmas day for the 10 of us and will spend it on our own at our on home.

    Better safe than sorry

    Good post. Re freezing the wages of public sector workers, the government must gain the moral authority to do things like this by also enacting measures which extract a significant contribution to the cost of the pandemic from the relatively affluent. There are many such people in this country and many ways to do it. If the government flunk this aspect it will be a case of "same old Tories" and I predict big trouble. They got away with it last time - making the poor bear much of the pain for the collapse of the financial sector - but I don't think the trick can be repeated. Perhaps Johnson & Co realize this themselves. I hope they do. If so there will be a serious attempt to make "those with the largest shoulders bear the load" in reality rather than as platitudinous soundbite.
    Agree - good post.

    On foreign aid I am not sure that a reduction to say 0.5% would do that much harm.

    There was an interesting session on "Wealth Taxin the light of COVID" in Parliament the other day. One aspect was an attempt to brand IHT and CGT as 'wealth taxes'.

    Another was a suggestion that the amount to be raised could be £250-500bn over several years, which is a little loopy - ask Mgr Hollande.

    But enough unanimity that reform of things like Stamp Duty to a more continuous setup may be imaginable.
    I'd say that IHT and CGT are wealth taxes. Any tax levied on assets rather than revenue fits that bill imo.
    Warren started to call her new tax the ultra-millionaire tax instead of a wealth tax. Multi-millionaire would fit better here, but I think differentiating between normal taxes on wealth like IHT and CGT, and taxing the super elite is important to get enough of the middles classes supporting it.

    The super elite avoid IHT in particular through trusts, so it is a middle class wealth tax rather than an elite wealth tax.
    Yes there's a difference between a tax on wealth and a tax on the wealthY. For example, I'd say an income tax of say 75% on earnings over £1m p/a is not a wealth tax in the first sense but it is in the second. In practice I think you have to be catching people who are relatively affluent but are not rich. The top decile perhaps. Not sure. One would have to look at the numbers. The trouble with just targeting the truly rich is that it doesn't raise enough.
    It would if you shook up the treatment of trusts. Credit Suisse have the top 1% owning 24% of the UK.
    Really? Remarkable. So what sort of measures could unlock that iyo?
    Ask a tax trust specialist! From a maths point of view, annual wealth tax of 1% on the top 1% of asset owners in the UK, would raise about £30-35bn extra per year. You wont get full compliance but dont see why half of that isnt achievable.
    It won't be easy but I think something along these lines has become a must-do. These debt and borrowing figures are horrendous. Unless you believe in MMT (modern monetary theory, magic money tree) it is the UK population who must pay and it would be unconscionable if the burden is largely escaped by those best placed to afford it. Wealth Tax, come on down. You're on the show.
    As an aside MMT as an economic theory doesn't say public spending is free and unlimited. Most western govts and central banks are influenced by MMT to a significant degree in the post GFC economic climate. No economic theory whether Keynesian or MMT is going to reflect reality particularly accurately across the full range of situations the world can find itself in, some will be more suited to todays economy than others.

    When its picked up by politicians MMT is deliberately misinterpreted by both left and right to suit their agendas.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    MaxPB said:

    We've found £4bn for Tory MPs to bribe their constituents but we can't give teachers a well deserved payrise after asking them to take enormous health risks everyday just by going to work.

    I don't see any way back for me to vote Tory for a very long time.

    Teachers are getting a pay freeze at a time many private sector workers have seen a pay cut or been put on furlough or made redundant.

    If you really cannot even vote for that I fail to see why you ever voted Tory in the first place?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,286
    Interesting article by David Goodhart.

    "The Left’s obsession with subjectivity
    To properly understand the world we must use data and logic — not only anecdote
    BY DAVID GOODHART"

    https://unherd.com/2020/11/the-dangerous-rise-of-subjectivity/
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    We've found £4bn for Tory MPs to bribe their constituents but we can't give teachers a well deserved payrise after asking them to take enormous health risks everyday just by going to work.

    I don't see any way back for me to vote Tory for a very long time.

    Teachers haven't had a pay cut or job losses, or worried about losing their life's savings invested into their business. That puts them in a better position than much of the nation.

    There are fates much worse than going a single year without a pay rise.
    We could say the same for NHS workers as well, and yet money has been found to give them a payrise.
    As they have been on the frontline fighting Covid and risking their health doing so too
  • MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    We've found £4bn for Tory MPs to bribe their constituents but we can't give teachers a well deserved payrise after asking them to take enormous health risks everyday just by going to work.

    I don't see any way back for me to vote Tory for a very long time.

    Teachers haven't had a pay cut or job losses, or worried about losing their life's savings invested into their business. That puts them in a better position than much of the nation.

    There are fates much worse than going a single year without a pay rise.
    We could say the same for NHS workers as well, and yet money has been found to give them a payrise.
    Oh be real!

    You must know full well there was not a chance on earth in the year of "clap for the NHS" that the government could freeze NHS pay.

    Does the fact that the NHS pay wasn't frozen means that the government has tons of money to splash out? Does it mean in your eyes we're not spending enough so should give teachers and others more money too?

    The line always has to be drawn somewhere.
  • MaxPB said:

    Not sure how we get to £394bn borrowing. We are tracking well under OBR forecast of £374bn. Even allowing for a second lockdown.

    The ONS did revise down spending in the year to date £16bn last week* so that helped.

    (*I normally whine about their propensity to overstate borrowing, but I'll give them the benefit of the doubt with COVID!)

    Second wave hitting the economy harder than the current OBR forecast I guess.
    Without the measures announced today, they think borrowing would have only slightly lower (£335bn) than March Forecast despite the economy having outperformed on almost every measure. They must really antiticapte a hard hit from this lockdown (remember they expect a deal on Brexit as well!)
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,587

    Imagine you are a backbench MP in the tory party.

    What have you got to sell to your constituents for the next four years? the next 10 after that?

    F8ck all that's what. A vast and freezing tundra of taxes and authoritarianism.

    You idiots. You stupid stupid idiots.

    In case you missed it there's a pandemic going on and that is hitting the economy in every high population density western economy around the western world.

    No matter what we would face an economic catastrophe.
    Come on! You told me yesterday that there would be a Roaring Twenties economic recovery by next summer.
  • Re Christmas rules....this advice seems the most sensible of you must see people

    According to Prof Noakes, people must dream up creative new options for Christmas That could range from meeting virtually on Zoom, going for a walk, braving the weather for a picnic, or even delaying big gatherings until next summer.

    BBC News - Covid: How to keep the virus at bay this Christmas
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-55017034

    Arranging to meet up for a winter walk seems a very sensible way of catching up with people while minimising risks. Instead i fear it will be all popping round to peoples homes, staying inside for 2-3hrs, sharing the left overs and nibbles...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited November 2020
    Andy_JS said:

    Interesting article by David Goodhart.

    "The Left’s obsession with subjectivity
    To properly understand the world we must use data and logic — not only anecdote
    BY DAVID GOODHART"

    https://unherd.com/2020/11/the-dangerous-rise-of-subjectivity/

    The use of edge case anedcotal stories by both politicians and the media drives me mad, when we have easy access to more.data than ever to analyse things.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    edited November 2020
    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    We've found £4bn for Tory MPs to bribe their constituents but we can't give teachers a well deserved payrise after asking them to take enormous health risks everyday just by going to work.

    I don't see any way back for me to vote Tory for a very long time.

    Teachers haven't had a pay cut or job losses, or worried about losing their life's savings invested into their business. That puts them in a better position than much of the nation.

    There are fates much worse than going a single year without a pay rise.
    We could say the same for NHS workers as well, and yet money has been found to give them a payrise.
    As they have been on the frontline fighting Covid and risking their health doing so too
    So have teachers and many other people in many other roles.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,793
    Anyway, they're doing it right(-ish).

    Actual economists who looked at pandemics and pandemic economists are united in saying that you impose restrictions, support your economy and the worst-hit sectors, and take the hit - or it costs worse in the long run. And borrowing, where available, is the best route in such an emergency.

    Denialists and those who confuse their own ignorance for knowledge (and who try to apply "common sense" - aka the accumulated experience of many years seeing normal activity without pandemics in a different situation) struggle to accept that, it's true, but the entire point of having the finances under control is to give flexibility for emergencies.

    It's always difficult to switch from "normal life" to "crisis mode" (it's why you get people running back into burning buildings) and some leaders have failed at the test. Like Trump. Most others have struggled a bit to accept it but tended to do the right(-ish) thing in the end. I don't know if Sunak is supporting the hospitality and travel sectors - that's one thing he very much needs to be doing if he wants the recovery to be strong.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited November 2020

    Imagine you are a backbench MP in the tory party.

    What have you got to sell to your constituents for the next four years? the next 10 after that?

    F8ck all that's what. A vast and freezing tundra of taxes and authoritarianism.

    You idiots. You stupid stupid idiots.

    In case you missed it there's a pandemic going on and that is hitting the economy in every high population density western economy around the western world.

    No matter what we would face an economic catastrophe.
    Come on! You told me yesterday that there would be a Roaring Twenties economic recovery by next summer.
    From next summer yes I do expect that. And the OBR is predicting a 5.5% growth next year and 6% the year after.

    There is going to be horrific disruption right now, but for the coming years as I said earlier I suspect that today's forecast figures will ultimately prove pessimistic in the end.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,861
    edited November 2020

    theakes said:

    Why can't our politicians follow Trudeau's example, "if you are thinking of going to visit family, especially eldrely relatives, DON'T. So much simpler.

    Beyond me...i would have gone rule of 6 (plus kids) for Christmas Day, but don't invite your oldies.

    Instead we have gone for a week hall pass. Bonkers.
    Its not a hall pass, it is a limitation of just 3 non-exchangeable families.

    And Christmas Day alone does not work. Some people for good reason can't or don't want to travel on Christmas Day.

    We're thinking of inviting my sister-in-law as our only visitor for this period, or going to see her ourselves. That would be it for us. But we won't see her on Christmas Day - we have a rule in our household that Christmas Day is for our children so we won't leave the house on Christmas Day and due to the lack of public transport she's unable to travel to see us on Christmas Day. So if we do the Christmas visit on the 23rd or Boxing Day then how is that worse than someone else doing that on Christmas Day?
    It's because the virus also takes the day off on th 25th December!

    Proper answer: It's not.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    We've found £4bn for Tory MPs to bribe their constituents but we can't give teachers a well deserved payrise after asking them to take enormous health risks everyday just by going to work.

    I don't see any way back for me to vote Tory for a very long time.

    Teachers haven't had a pay cut or job losses, or worried about losing their life's savings invested into their business. That puts them in a better position than much of the nation.

    There are fates much worse than going a single year without a pay rise.
    We could say the same for NHS workers as well, and yet money has been found to give them a payrise.
    As they have been on the frontline fighting Covid and risking their health doing so too
    So have teachers and many other people in many other roles.
    Doctors and nurses treat Covid patients directly, teachers do not
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,793

    Re Christmas rules....this advice seems the most sensible of you must see people

    According to Prof Noakes, people must dream up creative new options for Christmas That could range from meeting virtually on Zoom, going for a walk, braving the weather for a picnic, or even delaying big gatherings until next summer.

    BBC News - Covid: How to keep the virus at bay this Christmas
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-55017034

    Arranging to meet up for a winter walk seems a very sensible way of catching up with people while minimising risks. Instead i fear it will be all popping round to peoples homes, staying inside for 2-3hrs, sharing the left overs and nibbles...

    Plan a big family dinner and gathering for next summer. "Delayed Christmas"
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    We've found £4bn for Tory MPs to bribe their constituents but we can't give teachers a well deserved payrise after asking them to take enormous health risks everyday just by going to work.

    I don't see any way back for me to vote Tory for a very long time.

    Teachers haven't had a pay cut or job losses, or worried about losing their life's savings invested into their business. That puts them in a better position than much of the nation.

    There are fates much worse than going a single year without a pay rise.
    We could say the same for NHS workers as well, and yet money has been found to give them a payrise.
    Oh be real!

    You must know full well there was not a chance on earth in the year of "clap for the NHS" that the government could freeze NHS pay.

    Does the fact that the NHS pay wasn't frozen means that the government has tons of money to splash out? Does it mean in your eyes we're not spending enough so should give teachers and others more money too?

    The line always has to be drawn somewhere.
    Yes and we're spending £10bn on overseas aid. Clearly the line has been drawn badly.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    We've found £4bn for Tory MPs to bribe their constituents but we can't give teachers a well deserved payrise after asking them to take enormous health risks everyday just by going to work.

    I don't see any way back for me to vote Tory for a very long time.

    Teachers haven't had a pay cut or job losses, or worried about losing their life's savings invested into their business. That puts them in a better position than much of the nation.

    There are fates much worse than going a single year without a pay rise.
    We could say the same for NHS workers as well, and yet money has been found to give them a payrise.
    As they have been on the frontline fighting Covid and risking their health doing so too
    So have teachers and many other people in many other roles.
    Doctors and nurses treat Covid patients directly, teachers do not
    So?
  • eekeek Posts: 24,797
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    We've found £4bn for Tory MPs to bribe their constituents but we can't give teachers a well deserved payrise after asking them to take enormous health risks everyday just by going to work.

    I don't see any way back for me to vote Tory for a very long time.

    Teachers haven't had a pay cut or job losses, or worried about losing their life's savings invested into their business. That puts them in a better position than much of the nation.

    There are fates much worse than going a single year without a pay rise.
    We could say the same for NHS workers as well, and yet money has been found to give them a payrise.
    Oh be real!

    You must know full well there was not a chance on earth in the year of "clap for the NHS" that the government could freeze NHS pay.

    Does the fact that the NHS pay wasn't frozen means that the government has tons of money to splash out? Does it mean in your eyes we're not spending enough so should give teachers and others more money too?

    The line always has to be drawn somewhere.
    Yes and we're spending £10bn on overseas aid. Clearly the line has been drawn badly.
    A lot of that £10bn is probably already committed to projects
  • MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    We've found £4bn for Tory MPs to bribe their constituents but we can't give teachers a well deserved payrise after asking them to take enormous health risks everyday just by going to work.

    I don't see any way back for me to vote Tory for a very long time.

    Teachers haven't had a pay cut or job losses, or worried about losing their life's savings invested into their business. That puts them in a better position than much of the nation.

    There are fates much worse than going a single year without a pay rise.
    We could say the same for NHS workers as well, and yet money has been found to give them a payrise.
    Oh be real!

    You must know full well there was not a chance on earth in the year of "clap for the NHS" that the government could freeze NHS pay.

    Does the fact that the NHS pay wasn't frozen means that the government has tons of money to splash out? Does it mean in your eyes we're not spending enough so should give teachers and others more money too?

    The line always has to be drawn somewhere.
    Yes and we're spending £10bn on overseas aid. Clearly the line has been drawn badly.
    That's a very significant cut in overseas aid.

    Teacher's salaries haven't seen a very significant cut.

    I think that line is entirely appropriate personally.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    We've found £4bn for Tory MPs to bribe their constituents but we can't give teachers a well deserved payrise after asking them to take enormous health risks everyday just by going to work.

    I don't see any way back for me to vote Tory for a very long time.

    Teachers haven't had a pay cut or job losses, or worried about losing their life's savings invested into their business. That puts them in a better position than much of the nation.

    There are fates much worse than going a single year without a pay rise.
    We could say the same for NHS workers as well, and yet money has been found to give them a payrise.
    Oh be real!

    You must know full well there was not a chance on earth in the year of "clap for the NHS" that the government could freeze NHS pay.

    Does the fact that the NHS pay wasn't frozen means that the government has tons of money to splash out? Does it mean in your eyes we're not spending enough so should give teachers and others more money too?

    The line always has to be drawn somewhere.
    Yes and we're spending £10bn on overseas aid. Clearly the line has been drawn badly.
    Overseas aid spending falling to 0.5% of gdp from 0.7%
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,401

    Re Christmas rules....this advice seems the most sensible of you must see people

    According to Prof Noakes, people must dream up creative new options for Christmas That could range from meeting virtually on Zoom, going for a walk, braving the weather for a picnic, or even delaying big gatherings until next summer.

    BBC News - Covid: How to keep the virus at bay this Christmas
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-55017034

    Arranging to meet up for a winter walk seems a very sensible way of catching up with people while minimising risks. Instead i fear it will be all popping round to peoples homes, staying inside for 2-3hrs, sharing the left overs and nibbles...

    Shake hands then enjoy a finger buffet. No probs.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    I assume @HYUFD is in favour of only giving pay rises to doctors and nurses who have worked on COVID wards.
  • BBC News - Germany Merkel: Car rams into chancellery gate ahead of Covid decision
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-55069047
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    We've found £4bn for Tory MPs to bribe their constituents but we can't give teachers a well deserved payrise after asking them to take enormous health risks everyday just by going to work.

    I don't see any way back for me to vote Tory for a very long time.

    Teachers haven't had a pay cut or job losses, or worried about losing their life's savings invested into their business. That puts them in a better position than much of the nation.

    There are fates much worse than going a single year without a pay rise.
    We could say the same for NHS workers as well, and yet money has been found to give them a payrise.
    As they have been on the frontline fighting Covid and risking their health doing so too
    So have teachers and many other people in many other roles.
    Doctors and nurses treat Covid patients directly, teachers do not
    Some doctors and nurses do, others don't.

    I get the politics, I really do. But the government's policy is sentimental guff. Pure populism, and nothing to be proud of.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    Re Christmas rules....this advice seems the most sensible of you must see people

    According to Prof Noakes, people must dream up creative new options for Christmas That could range from meeting virtually on Zoom, going for a walk, braving the weather for a picnic, or even delaying big gatherings until next summer.

    BBC News - Covid: How to keep the virus at bay this Christmas
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-55017034

    Arranging to meet up for a winter walk seems a very sensible way of catching up with people while minimising risks. Instead i fear it will be all popping round to peoples homes, staying inside for 2-3hrs, sharing the left overs and nibbles...

    Plan a big family dinner and gathering for next summer. "Delayed Christmas"
    Honestly the government should have done this instead and given people a 4 day weekend for it.
  • Re Christmas rules....this advice seems the most sensible of you must see people

    According to Prof Noakes, people must dream up creative new options for Christmas That could range from meeting virtually on Zoom, going for a walk, braving the weather for a picnic, or even delaying big gatherings until next summer.

    BBC News - Covid: How to keep the virus at bay this Christmas
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-55017034

    Arranging to meet up for a winter walk seems a very sensible way of catching up with people while minimising risks. Instead i fear it will be all popping round to peoples homes, staying inside for 2-3hrs, sharing the left overs and nibbles...

    Plan a big family dinner and gathering for next summer. "Delayed Christmas"
    Back in 2002 I celebrated in Christmas in Australia, absolutely brilliant and shows what we miss out in the Northern hemisphere.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    We've found £4bn for Tory MPs to bribe their constituents but we can't give teachers a well deserved payrise after asking them to take enormous health risks everyday just by going to work.

    I don't see any way back for me to vote Tory for a very long time.

    Teachers haven't had a pay cut or job losses, or worried about losing their life's savings invested into their business. That puts them in a better position than much of the nation.

    There are fates much worse than going a single year without a pay rise.
    We could say the same for NHS workers as well, and yet money has been found to give them a payrise.
    As they have been on the frontline fighting Covid and risking their health doing so too
    So have teachers and many other people in many other roles.
    Doctors and nurses treat Covid patients directly, teachers do not
    Some doctors and nurses do, others don't.

    I get the politics, I really do. But the government's policy is sentimental guff. Pure populism, and nothing to be proud of.
    We do live in a democracy.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    MattW said:

    kinabalu said:

    Good morning

    I have sympathy with Cyclefree and her piece but the nature of this pandemic has been to devastate the hospitality and travel industry and, while help has been given, it was always going to have constraints with the huge demands from other sectors, not least the health and care sector

    With the vaccine on the horizon let us all hope that by mid 2021 these industries will see a sharp uptake in demand and begin their road to recovery

    On foreign aid I have no issue with reducing it, but as has been suggested some of the savings should be folded into the vaccine programmes to directly help third world countries with their own vaccinations

    On public sector pay freeze I support it purely on the grounds of fairness and expect mp's to lead by example. Additionally I would support abolishing the triple lock thereby freezing our own pension rise next year

    On Brexit a deal is really needed, indeed as far as I am concerned any deal, but our relationship with Europe will develop over many years and may eventually lead to 'de facto' membership and at the very least membership of the single market

    On Christmas I fail to understand why people just cannot see the safest thing is to treat this Christmas as if we are in lockdown and curtail family gatherings in the greater interest of all of us. No matter the four nations agreeing a convoluted number of rules for this year, my wife and I have already cancelled Christmas day for the 10 of us and will spend it on our own at our on home.

    Better safe than sorry

    Good post. Re freezing the wages of public sector workers, the government must gain the moral authority to do things like this by also enacting measures which extract a significant contribution to the cost of the pandemic from the relatively affluent. There are many such people in this country and many ways to do it. If the government flunk this aspect it will be a case of "same old Tories" and I predict big trouble. They got away with it last time - making the poor bear much of the pain for the collapse of the financial sector - but I don't think the trick can be repeated. Perhaps Johnson & Co realize this themselves. I hope they do. If so there will be a serious attempt to make "those with the largest shoulders bear the load" in reality rather than as platitudinous soundbite.
    Agree - good post.

    On foreign aid I am not sure that a reduction to say 0.5% would do that much harm.

    There was an interesting session on "Wealth Taxin the light of COVID" in Parliament the other day. One aspect was an attempt to brand IHT and CGT as 'wealth taxes'.

    Another was a suggestion that the amount to be raised could be £250-500bn over several years, which is a little loopy - ask Mgr Hollande.

    But enough unanimity that reform of things like Stamp Duty to a more continuous setup may be imaginable.
    I'd say that IHT and CGT are wealth taxes. Any tax levied on assets rather than revenue fits that bill imo.
    Warren started to call her new tax the ultra-millionaire tax instead of a wealth tax. Multi-millionaire would fit better here, but I think differentiating between normal taxes on wealth like IHT and CGT, and taxing the super elite is important to get enough of the middles classes supporting it.

    The super elite avoid IHT in particular through trusts, so it is a middle class wealth tax rather than an elite wealth tax.
    Yes there's a difference between a tax on wealth and a tax on the wealthY. For example, I'd say an income tax of say 75% on earnings over £1m p/a is not a wealth tax in the first sense but it is in the second. In practice I think you have to be catching people who are relatively affluent but are not rich. The top decile perhaps. Not sure. One would have to look at the numbers. The trouble with just targeting the truly rich is that it doesn't raise enough.
    It would if you shook up the treatment of trusts. Credit Suisse have the top 1% owning 24% of the UK.
    Really? Remarkable. So what sort of measures could unlock that iyo?
    Ask a tax trust specialist! From a maths point of view, annual wealth tax of 1% on the top 1% of asset owners in the UK, would raise about £30-35bn extra per year. You wont get full compliance but dont see why half of that isnt achievable.
    It won't be easy but I think something along these lines has become a must-do. These debt and borrowing figures are horrendous. Unless you believe in MMT (modern monetary theory, magic money tree) it is the UK population who must pay and it would be unconscionable if the burden is largely escaped by those best placed to afford it. Wealth Tax, come on down. You're on the show.
    As an aside MMT as an economic theory doesn't say public spending is free and unlimited. Most western govts and central banks are influenced by MMT to a significant degree in the post GFC economic climate. No economic theory whether Keynesian or MMT is going to reflect reality particularly accurately across the full range of situations the world can find itself in, some will be more suited to todays economy than others.

    When its picked up by politicians MMT is deliberately misinterpreted by both left and right to suit their agendas.
    Yes, it's the practice rather than the theory I'm mainly talking about. The theory has useful insights.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    We've found £4bn for Tory MPs to bribe their constituents but we can't give teachers a well deserved payrise after asking them to take enormous health risks everyday just by going to work.

    I don't see any way back for me to vote Tory for a very long time.

    Teachers haven't had a pay cut or job losses, or worried about losing their life's savings invested into their business. That puts them in a better position than much of the nation.

    There are fates much worse than going a single year without a pay rise.
    We could say the same for NHS workers as well, and yet money has been found to give them a payrise.
    As they have been on the frontline fighting Covid and risking their health doing so too
    So have teachers and many other people in many other roles.
    Doctors and nurses treat Covid patients directly, teachers do not
    Some doctors and nurses do, others don't.

    I get the politics, I really do. But the government's policy is sentimental guff. Pure populism, and nothing to be proud of.
    We do live in a democracy.
    I doubt policy based on ignorance is something your hero Thatcher would support.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    Re Christmas rules....this advice seems the most sensible of you must see people

    According to Prof Noakes, people must dream up creative new options for Christmas That could range from meeting virtually on Zoom, going for a walk, braving the weather for a picnic, or even delaying big gatherings until next summer.

    BBC News - Covid: How to keep the virus at bay this Christmas
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-55017034

    Arranging to meet up for a winter walk seems a very sensible way of catching up with people while minimising risks. Instead i fear it will be all popping round to peoples homes, staying inside for 2-3hrs, sharing the left overs and nibbles...

    Plan a big family dinner and gathering for next summer. "Delayed Christmas"
    n the summer weren't you telling us to plan a big family dinner and gathering at Christmas?
  • felix said:

    As a former teacher I can tell you the situation is simple. When general unemployment is very low the profession can bid pretty good pay deals. The opposite occurs when unemployment rises. In the current situation any teacher unhappy with the terms and conditions of service can look elsewhere for better options if they wish. BTW this basic rule of thumb worked throughout my 33 years under all governments. In terms of the pandemic schools were shut for a good part of the first wave so it is hard to argue too much about risks taken and of course wages were paid in full throughout. Since they went back the safety measues have been pretty stringent - I don't know the data for levels of infection related to doing their job but it certainly has not featured much in the news. I'd say there is a long list of key workers who have toiled throughout who are much more deserving in both the public and private sector. My own personal heroes would be lowly paid supermarket staff - front and centre from day one with massive exposure and generally much less well paid than a teacher.

    Mine are care home workers.

    They have been the only lifeline for the sick and demented who can't see their families. They have had to go into work every day and hold the hands of the dying who can't hold their own family member's hands. They have been hit hard by Covid too. And all for minimum wage.
  • Sunlit uplands, I mean all those portaloos in Kent will be good for some parts of the economy.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited November 2020
    Brand Rishi pumping out the infographic propaganda....

    https://twitter.com/RishiSunak/status/1331590920307961856?s=19

    Certainly a much slicker operation than most other ministers / departments.
  • sladeslade Posts: 1,921
    Have I got this right? The Chancellor announces an economic emergency which involves high levels of spending and borrowing. The answer - even higher levels of spending and borrowing.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,712
    slade said:

    Have I got this right? The Chancellor announces an economic emergency which involves high levels of spending and borrowing. The answer - even higher levels of spending and borrowing.

    No, he cut overseas aid and introduced a public sector payfreeze and the Archbishop of Canterbury thinks even the former goes too far

    https://twitter.com/JustinWelby/status/1331592471550242817?s=20
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 7,981
    edited November 2020
    Clearly there is no govt a*se the PB Tories won't kiss....

    Later peeps :)
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    We've found £4bn for Tory MPs to bribe their constituents but we can't give teachers a well deserved payrise after asking them to take enormous health risks everyday just by going to work.

    I don't see any way back for me to vote Tory for a very long time.

    Teachers haven't had a pay cut or job losses, or worried about losing their life's savings invested into their business. That puts them in a better position than much of the nation.

    There are fates much worse than going a single year without a pay rise.
    We could say the same for NHS workers as well, and yet money has been found to give them a payrise.
    As they have been on the frontline fighting Covid and risking their health doing so too
    So have teachers and many other people in many other roles.
    Doctors and nurses treat Covid patients directly, teachers do not
    Some doctors and nurses do, others don't.

    I get the politics, I really do. But the government's policy is sentimental guff. Pure populism, and nothing to be proud of.
    We do live in a democracy.
    I doubt policy based on ignorance is something your hero Thatcher would support.
    Thatcher believed in realpolitik and democracy.

    She didn't fight every battle simultaneously and she didn't act as an unthinking automaton or extremist that she gets characterised as.

    Sometimes you have to pick your battles. Freezing NHS pay is not a battle that could be won this year it'd be insane to even try.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,576

    felix said:

    As a former teacher I can tell you the situation is simple. When general unemployment is very low the profession can bid pretty good pay deals. The opposite occurs when unemployment rises. In the current situation any teacher unhappy with the terms and conditions of service can look elsewhere for better options if they wish. BTW this basic rule of thumb worked throughout my 33 years under all governments. In terms of the pandemic schools were shut for a good part of the first wave so it is hard to argue too much about risks taken and of course wages were paid in full throughout. Since they went back the safety measues have been pretty stringent - I don't know the data for levels of infection related to doing their job but it certainly has not featured much in the news. I'd say there is a long list of key workers who have toiled throughout who are much more deserving in both the public and private sector. My own personal heroes would be lowly paid supermarket staff - front and centre from day one with massive exposure and generally much less well paid than a teacher.

    Mine are care home workers.

    They have been the only lifeline for the sick and demented who can't see their families. They have had to go into work every day and hold the hands of the dying who can't hold their own family member's hands. They have been hit hard by Covid too. And all for minimum wage.
    Agreed.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    edited November 2020
    HYUFD said:

    slade said:

    Have I got this right? The Chancellor announces an economic emergency which involves high levels of spending and borrowing. The answer - even higher levels of spending and borrowing.

    No, he cut overseas aid and introduced a public sector payfreeze and the Archbishop of Canterbury thinks even the former goes too far

    https://twitter.com/JustinWelby/status/1331592471550242817?s=20
    The way some are reacting you would think he had announced to totally abolish it.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,793

    Re Christmas rules....this advice seems the most sensible of you must see people

    According to Prof Noakes, people must dream up creative new options for Christmas That could range from meeting virtually on Zoom, going for a walk, braving the weather for a picnic, or even delaying big gatherings until next summer.

    BBC News - Covid: How to keep the virus at bay this Christmas
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-55017034

    Arranging to meet up for a winter walk seems a very sensible way of catching up with people while minimising risks. Instead i fear it will be all popping round to peoples homes, staying inside for 2-3hrs, sharing the left overs and nibbles...

    Plan a big family dinner and gathering for next summer. "Delayed Christmas"
    n the summer weren't you telling us to plan a big family dinner and gathering at Christmas?
    I don't think so. Were you?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,587

    Imagine you are a backbench MP in the tory party.

    What have you got to sell to your constituents for the next four years? the next 10 after that?

    F8ck all that's what. A vast and freezing tundra of taxes and authoritarianism.

    You idiots. You stupid stupid idiots.

    In case you missed it there's a pandemic going on and that is hitting the economy in every high population density western economy around the western world.

    No matter what we would face an economic catastrophe.
    Come on! You told me yesterday that there would be a Roaring Twenties economic recovery by next summer.
    From next summer yes I do expect that. And the OBR is predicting a 5.5% growth next year and 6% the year after.

    There is going to be horrific disruption right now, but for the coming years as I said earlier I suspect that today's forecast figures will ultimately prove pessimistic in the end.
    Second paragraph: Like I said yesterday, you really need to get out more!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,072

    Imagine you are a backbench MP in the tory party.

    What have you got to sell to your constituents for the next four years? the next 10 after that?

    F8ck all that's what. A vast and freezing tundra of taxes and authoritarianism.

    You idiots. You stupid stupid idiots.

    In case you missed it there's a pandemic going on and that is hitting the economy in every high population density western economy around the western world.

    No matter what we would face an economic catastrophe.
    Come on! You told me yesterday that there would be a Roaring Twenties economic recovery by next summer.
    Worth noting that the "Roaring Twenties" was a USA phenomenon. The British economy suffered mass unemployment, deflation and stagnant economic growth through the 1920s.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,851

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    MattW said:

    kinabalu said:

    Good morning

    I have sympathy with Cyclefree and her piece but the nature of this pandemic has been to devastate the hospitality and travel industry and, while help has been given, it was always going to have constraints with the huge demands from other sectors, not least the health and care sector

    With the vaccine on the horizon let us all hope that by mid 2021 these industries will see a sharp uptake in demand and begin their road to recovery

    On foreign aid I have no issue with reducing it, but as has been suggested some of the savings should be folded into the vaccine programmes to directly help third world countries with their own vaccinations

    On public sector pay freeze I support it purely on the grounds of fairness and expect mp's to lead by example. Additionally I would support abolishing the triple lock thereby freezing our own pension rise next year

    On Brexit a deal is really needed, indeed as far as I am concerned any deal, but our relationship with Europe will develop over many years and may eventually lead to 'de facto' membership and at the very least membership of the single market

    On Christmas I fail to understand why people just cannot see the safest thing is to treat this Christmas as if we are in lockdown and curtail family gatherings in the greater interest of all of us. No matter the four nations agreeing a convoluted number of rules for this year, my wife and I have already cancelled Christmas day for the 10 of us and will spend it on our own at our on home.

    Better safe than sorry

    Good post. Re freezing the wages of public sector workers, the government must gain the moral authority to do things like this by also enacting measures which extract a significant contribution to the cost of the pandemic from the relatively affluent. There are many such people in this country and many ways to do it. If the government flunk this aspect it will be a case of "same old Tories" and I predict big trouble. They got away with it last time - making the poor bear much of the pain for the collapse of the financial sector - but I don't think the trick can be repeated. Perhaps Johnson & Co realize this themselves. I hope they do. If so there will be a serious attempt to make "those with the largest shoulders bear the load" in reality rather than as platitudinous soundbite.
    Agree - good post.

    On foreign aid I am not sure that a reduction to say 0.5% would do that much harm.

    There was an interesting session on "Wealth Taxin the light of COVID" in Parliament the other day. One aspect was an attempt to brand IHT and CGT as 'wealth taxes'.

    Another was a suggestion that the amount to be raised could be £250-500bn over several years, which is a little loopy - ask Mgr Hollande.

    But enough unanimity that reform of things like Stamp Duty to a more continuous setup may be imaginable.
    I'd say that IHT and CGT are wealth taxes. Any tax levied on assets rather than revenue fits that bill imo.
    Warren started to call her new tax the ultra-millionaire tax instead of a wealth tax. Multi-millionaire would fit better here, but I think differentiating between normal taxes on wealth like IHT and CGT, and taxing the super elite is important to get enough of the middles classes supporting it.

    The super elite avoid IHT in particular through trusts, so it is a middle class wealth tax rather than an elite wealth tax.
    Yes there's a difference between a tax on wealth and a tax on the wealthY. For example, I'd say an income tax of say 75% on earnings over £1m p/a is not a wealth tax in the first sense but it is in the second. In practice I think you have to be catching people who are relatively affluent but are not rich. The top decile perhaps. Not sure. One would have to look at the numbers. The trouble with just targeting the truly rich is that it doesn't raise enough.
    It would if you shook up the treatment of trusts. Credit Suisse have the top 1% owning 24% of the UK.
    Really? Remarkable. So what sort of measures could unlock that iyo?
    Ask a tax trust specialist! From a maths point of view, annual wealth tax of 1% on the top 1% of asset owners in the UK, would raise about £30-35bn extra per year. You wont get full compliance but dont see why half of that isnt achievable.
    It won't be easy but I think something along these lines has become a must-do. These debt and borrowing figures are horrendous. Unless you believe in MMT (modern monetary theory, magic money tree) it is the UK population who must pay and it would be unconscionable if the burden is largely escaped by those best placed to afford it. Wealth Tax, come on down. You're on the show.
    Unearned wealth yes let's do it. CGT IHT Tax on investment property. Get rid of loopholes eg trusts.
    I await the proposals from Sunak in due course. It's essential that the wealthy make the biggest contribution. Otherwise all we get is one group of workers set against another, e.g. the "teachers still have a job and a good pension so ..." etc etc. This is the politics of misdirection and misplaced envy.
  • MaxPB said:

    Re Christmas rules....this advice seems the most sensible of you must see people

    According to Prof Noakes, people must dream up creative new options for Christmas That could range from meeting virtually on Zoom, going for a walk, braving the weather for a picnic, or even delaying big gatherings until next summer.

    BBC News - Covid: How to keep the virus at bay this Christmas
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-55017034

    Arranging to meet up for a winter walk seems a very sensible way of catching up with people while minimising risks. Instead i fear it will be all popping round to peoples homes, staying inside for 2-3hrs, sharing the left overs and nibbles...

    Plan a big family dinner and gathering for next summer. "Delayed Christmas"
    Honestly the government should have done this instead and given people a 4 day weekend for it.
    I think they have. Its called Easter.

    There's a reason that the government and others keep insisting that things will get more by normal by Easter and conveniently Easter is a 4 day weekend already.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Andy_JS said:

    Interesting article by David Goodhart.

    "The Left’s obsession with subjectivity
    To properly understand the world we must use data and logic — not only anecdote
    BY DAVID GOODHART"

    https://unherd.com/2020/11/the-dangerous-rise-of-subjectivity/

    The use of edge case anedcotal stories by both politicians and the media drives me mad, when we have easy access to more.data than ever to analyse things.
    The world runs on anecdotes and edge cases, whether you like it or not. The death of George Floyd is as important a fact as the past ten years' data showing the risk faced by the average USA POC of being murdered by a policeman. Anyway, whenever a politician or journalist or indeed professional scientist produces a statistic they get told by PB that they've done it all wrong, I can't believe the innumeracy of these people, wibble wibble. So that rules that out. So what primary data are we meant to rely on?
This discussion has been closed.