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Trump’s Plan D – it’s all about the Electoral College – politicalbetting.com

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  • alex_alex_ Posts: 6,906
    edited November 2020
    isam said:

    alex_ said:

    isam said:

    I clicked on this tweet by the ex-Change UK candidate and ex-BBC News man Gavin Esler, a supposed moderate who has been driven mad by Brexit, expecting people to be outraged by his drawing a parallel between workplace shouting and swearing, & rape and paedophilia - but no! The majority seem to be agreeing with him and happy to accept the comparison

    https://twitter.com/gavinesler/status/1329908960766414848?s=20

    That's because it's not a comparison; it's an analogy.
    It is totally unacceptable comparison or analogy. By all means criticize Patel behaviour and those that are defending her actions, that that is way out of line.

    Looking the other way because it is the easiest, most convenient, thing to do and the victims may not be easy to like is exactly what happened not only with Jimmy Saville but also in Rochdale, Rotherham and countless other places. It is an uncomfortable analogy, but it is an entirely appropriate one.

    I totally disagree. There are levels. And we should be careful about things, as iSam says, you rachet everything up to 11 and you turn people to the extremes.

    Patel screaming and shouting at employees is unacceptable. If she was a man, no way she would still be in position even with Boris interference. She is clearly a very bad boss and not capable of the role she is in.

    But is not even comparable to for instance Brown physically shoving people out the way, throwing phones at them, and where a good day was "just" some screaming / shouting, and that shouldn't be compared to anything like the evils of grooming gangs
    This is completely missing the point of the tweet, which is not to opine on Patel's behaviour/actions, but on the "defence" of her by the MP.



    Yes, the point of the tweet was to make people supporting Patel look like they were the type of person who would support a paedophile rapist. To be fair, a lot of people, several on here, seem to think that they are.
    No the point of the tweet was to show how the defence of Patel put forward, if valid, could also logically be used to clear Savile. Since nobody would accept it as a defence of Savile, therefore it cannot be used as a defence of Patel. Using Savile as an example is deliberate and entirely correct for what is being said.

    There may well be other defences that could be offered of Patel, but this is not one of them.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 30,162
    edited November 2020

    Anyway, George Galloway has been sticking it to the man through the medium of wallpaper stripping and colour charts. No word if the Lenin of laminate is now a political prisoner.

    https://twitter.com/MhairiHunter/status/1330117100657119244?s=20

    I'm going to need a very long long shower after saying this, but I think George Galloway has a point.

    I'm not sure the Scotland Act gives Holyrood the competence on who many enter Scotland, it violates a few international treaties I think as well as it restricts travel inside the Common Travel Area and FoM for EU citizens.

    On the latter point, I've always said Nats and Brexiteers are two cheeks of the same arse, this again proves it.

    Now off for a very long shower.
    While you're in your shower you can mull over the idea that the Tory Party are the midwives and enablers of both Brexit and Scottish Indy.

    In any case it's hardly Checkpoint Charlie at Gretna. The following is the list of exceptions affecting travel between Scotland and England.

    Part 1

    Exceptions

    The regulations prohibit travel without a reasonable excuse into or out of a Level 3 or 4 local authority area, or to or from other parts of the Common Travel Area. The regulations list a range of different things for which travel is permitted. Guidance on those is set out below. But please remember that it is important for everyone’s safety that we all minimise such travel as much as possible.

    travel for work or an activity associated with seeking employment, or to provide voluntary or charitable services, but only where that cannot be done from your home

    travel to school (including travel to or from boarding school), college, or university (for example to or from home at the start or end of term) This includes travel for home education, training, school day trips or for other essential purposes connected with a course of study
    (to and from Level 3 local authority areas but not Level 4) travel for under 18s organised activities and sport
    travel for essential shopping, including essential shopping for a vulnerable person. However, you should use online shopping or shops, banks and other services in your local authority area wherever you can. In Level 3, a person who lives next to a local authority boundary can cross that boundary for non-essential shopping if that retail outlet is in the immediate vicinity of where they live
  • Exceptions Part 2

    travel for healthcare
    travel for childcare or parental support services
    travel for essential services, including:
    social care
    accessing day care centres
    services provided by the Department for Work and Pensions
    services provided to victims (including victims of crime)
    asylum and immigration services and interviews
    services of a charitable or voluntary nature such as food banks
    waste or recycling services but only if they are not available in your local authority area
    travel to provide care, assistance, support to or respite for a vulnerable person
    travel for facilitating shared parenting or between the two parts of an extended household
    travel to meet a legal obligation including satisfying bail conditions, to participate in legal proceedings, to comply with a court mandate in terms of sentence imposed or to register a birth
    travel for attendance at court including a remote jury centre, an inquiry, a children’s hearing, tribunal proceedings or to resolve a dispute via Alternative Dispute Resolution
    travel for essential animal welfare reasons, such as exercising or feeding a horse or going to a vet
    local outdoor informal exercise such as walking, cycling, golf, or running (in groups of up to 6 people from no more than 2 households) that starts and finishes at the same place (which could be up to 5 miles from the boundary of your local authority area)
    i
  • Exceptions Part 3

    n Level 3 travel to attend a gathering which relates to a marriage ceremony or civil partnership registration
    in Level 4 travel to attend a marriage ceremony or registration of a civil partnership
    travel for gatherings related to funerals or for compassionate reasons which relate to the end of a person’s life. This includes gatherings related to the scattering of ashes
    travel to or from a level 3 area (but not to or from a level 4 area) for the purposes of driving lessons or taking a driving test
    if you are a minister of religion or worship leader, travel for the purposes of leading an act of worship
    (to or from Level 3 local authority areas, but not to or from Level 4) travel to attend your normal place of worship
    travel to donate blood
    travel to transit through a Level 3 or 4 local authority area by road or public transport if your journey begins and ends outside such an area;
    travel to move home or for activities in connection with the essential maintenance, purchase, sale, letting, or rental of residential property that a person owns or is otherwise responsible for
    travel to avoid injury, illness or to escape a risk of harm
    for those involved in professional sports, travelling to training or competing in an event
    to visit a person receiving treatment in a hospital, staying in a hospice or care home, or to accompany a person to a medical appointment
    travel to register or vote in an Scottish or UK Parliament, Local Government or overseas election or by-election, including on behalf of someone else by proxy
    travel to visit a person detained in prison, young offenders institute, remand centre, secure accommodation or other place of detention
  • JACK_WJACK_W Posts: 359

    Now off for a very long shower.

    You off for a wander past the Boris's entire government ?

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,372
    First 2024 GOP primary polls post election are out and have Trump ahead followed by Romney if he decides to run again, otherwise Pence followed by Romney are the top 2

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1328758765248770049?s=20

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1328759344549203968?s=20
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 6,906

    Exceptions Part 3

    n Level 3 travel to attend a gathering which relates to a marriage ceremony or civil partnership registration
    in Level 4 travel to attend a marriage ceremony or registration of a civil partnership
    travel for gatherings related to funerals or for compassionate reasons which relate to the end of a person’s life. This includes gatherings related to the scattering of ashes
    travel to or from a level 3 area (but not to or from a level 4 area) for the purposes of driving lessons or taking a driving test
    if you are a minister of religion or worship leader, travel for the purposes of leading an act of worship
    (to or from Level 3 local authority areas, but not to or from Level 4) travel to attend your normal place of worship
    travel to donate blood
    travel to transit through a Level 3 or 4 local authority area by road or public transport if your journey begins and ends outside such an area;
    travel to move home or for activities in connection with the essential maintenance, purchase, sale, letting, or rental of residential property that a person owns or is otherwise responsible for
    travel to avoid injury, illness or to escape a risk of harm
    for those involved in professional sports, travelling to training or competing in an event
    to visit a person receiving treatment in a hospital, staying in a hospice or care home, or to accompany a person to a medical appointment
    travel to register or vote in an Scottish or UK Parliament, Local Government or overseas election or by-election, including on behalf of someone else by proxy
    travel to visit a person detained in prison, young offenders institute, remand centre, secure accommodation or other place of detention

    So basically you've got to work pretty hard to break the law. And Galloway won't be.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,319
    isam said:

    isam said:

    I clicked on this tweet by the ex-Change UK candidate and ex-BBC News man Gavin Esler, a supposed moderate who has been driven mad by Brexit, expecting people to be outraged by his drawing a parallel between workplace shouting and swearing, & rape and paedophilia - but no! The majority seem to be agreeing with him and happy to accept the comparison

    https://twitter.com/gavinesler/status/1329908960766414848?s=20

    That's because it's not a comparison; it's an analogy.
    Oh well if it is an analogy I suppose that makes all the difference!
    The comparison isn't between Patel and Saville.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 55,628
    HYUFD said:

    First 2024 GOP primary polls post election are out and have Trump ahead followed by Romney if he decides to run again, otherwise Pence followed by Romney are the top 2

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1328758765248770049?s=20

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1328759344549203968?s=20

    Welcome back, comrade chairman. :D
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,372
    Some interesting comments from Obama in his new book about his relationship with Cameron

    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1328667012529352704?s=20
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,372
    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    First 2024 GOP primary polls post election are out and have Trump ahead followed by Romney if he decides to run again, otherwise Pence followed by Romney are the top 2

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1328758765248770049?s=20

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1328759344549203968?s=20

    Welcome back, comrade chairman. :D
    Thanks, believe I was banned for a period for commenting about a James Kelly commissioned poll (which are sacrosanct apparently) which is fine as long as Scotland in Union polls are also treated as sacrosanct too. Plus have had other things to do elsewhere
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 1,821
    Andy_JS said:

    "The German city of Dusseldorf was forced Monday to lift an order for residents to wear masks against the coronavirus, after a citizen successfully sued against the blanket rule."

    https://www.courthousenews.com/court-tears-up-mask-rule-in-germanys-dusseldorf/

    masks are fair enough, but blankets is def too much.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 9,556
    isam said:

    alex_ said:

    isam said:

    I clicked on this tweet by the ex-Change UK candidate and ex-BBC News man Gavin Esler, a supposed moderate who has been driven mad by Brexit, expecting people to be outraged by his drawing a parallel between workplace shouting and swearing, & rape and paedophilia - but no! The majority seem to be agreeing with him and happy to accept the comparison

    https://twitter.com/gavinesler/status/1329908960766414848?s=20

    That's because it's not a comparison; it's an analogy.
    It is totally unacceptable comparison or analogy. By all means criticize Patel behaviour and those that are defending her actions, that that is way out of line.

    Looking the other way because it is the easiest, most convenient, thing to do and the victims may not be easy to like is exactly what happened not only with Jimmy Saville but also in Rochdale, Rotherham and countless other places. It is an uncomfortable analogy, but it is an entirely appropriate one.

    I totally disagree. There are levels. And we should be careful about things, as iSam says, you rachet everything up to 11 and you turn people to the extremes.

    Patel screaming and shouting at employees is unacceptable. If she was a man, no way she would still be in position even with Boris interference. She is clearly a very bad boss and not capable of the role she is in.

    But is not even comparable to for instance Brown physically shoving people out the way, throwing phones at them, and where a good day was "just" some screaming / shouting, and that shouldn't be compared to anything like the evils of grooming gangs
    This is completely missing the point of the tweet, which is not to opine on Patel's behaviour/actions, but on the "defence" of her by the MP.



    Yes, the point of the tweet was to make people supporting Patel look like they were the type of person who would support a paedophile rapist. To be fair, a lot of people, several on here, seem to think that they are.
    The point could also have been made by saying: It's like saying I don't believe these allegations against Chris Huhne, I've met him loads of times and he never asked me to take any speeding points. The lesson for these tory MPs is: if you don't behave in a way which invites contemptuous derision, your supporters won't have to waste hours of their lives arguing on internet forums whether it is an acceptable kind of contemptuous derision.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 34,460

    Anyway, George Galloway has been sticking it to the man through the medium of wallpaper stripping and colour charts. No word if the Lenin of laminate is now a political prisoner.

    https://twitter.com/MhairiHunter/status/1330117100657119244?s=20

    He got a real roasting as well, what a bellend he really is.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 34,460

    malcolmg said:

    All that positive PR that his handlers have been getting for Lewis Hamilton over the past week...he is trending on twitter, never a good sign...for his failed legal action against a watch company that has been in business forever.

    Not a fan of JHB, but I did chuckle at this.

    https://twitter.com/JuliaHB1/status/1329911777921011713?s=19

    What a creep, how greedy can you be . How did it take more than 5 minutes to tell him to FOFF never mind 3 years.

    It will have cost him a fortune, I imagine.

    Hopefully.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,441
    alex_ said:

    isam said:

    alex_ said:

    isam said:

    I clicked on this tweet by the ex-Change UK candidate and ex-BBC News man Gavin Esler, a supposed moderate who has been driven mad by Brexit, expecting people to be outraged by his drawing a parallel between workplace shouting and swearing, & rape and paedophilia - but no! The majority seem to be agreeing with him and happy to accept the comparison

    https://twitter.com/gavinesler/status/1329908960766414848?s=20

    That's because it's not a comparison; it's an analogy.
    It is totally unacceptable comparison or analogy. By all means criticize Patel behaviour and those that are defending her actions, that that is way out of line.

    Looking the other way because it is the easiest, most convenient, thing to do and the victims may not be easy to like is exactly what happened not only with Jimmy Saville but also in Rochdale, Rotherham and countless other places. It is an uncomfortable analogy, but it is an entirely appropriate one.

    I totally disagree. There are levels. And we should be careful about things, as iSam says, you rachet everything up to 11 and you turn people to the extremes.

    Patel screaming and shouting at employees is unacceptable. If she was a man, no way she would still be in position even with Boris interference. She is clearly a very bad boss and not capable of the role she is in.

    But is not even comparable to for instance Brown physically shoving people out the way, throwing phones at them, and where a good day was "just" some screaming / shouting, and that shouldn't be compared to anything like the evils of grooming gangs
    This is completely missing the point of the tweet, which is not to opine on Patel's behaviour/actions, but on the "defence" of her by the MP.



    Yes, the point of the tweet was to make people supporting Patel look like they were the type of person who would support a paedophile rapist. To be fair, a lot of people, several on here, seem to think that they are.
    No the point of the tweet was to show how the defence of Patel put forward, if valid, could also logically be used to clear Savile. Since nobody would accept it as a defence of Savile, therefore it cannot be used as a defence of Patel. Using Savile as an example is deliberate and entirely correct for what is being said.

    There may well be other defences that could be offered of Patel, but this is not one of them.
    Well he's got you duped
  • isamisam Posts: 38,441
    IshmaelZ said:

    isam said:

    alex_ said:

    isam said:

    I clicked on this tweet by the ex-Change UK candidate and ex-BBC News man Gavin Esler, a supposed moderate who has been driven mad by Brexit, expecting people to be outraged by his drawing a parallel between workplace shouting and swearing, & rape and paedophilia - but no! The majority seem to be agreeing with him and happy to accept the comparison

    https://twitter.com/gavinesler/status/1329908960766414848?s=20

    That's because it's not a comparison; it's an analogy.
    It is totally unacceptable comparison or analogy. By all means criticize Patel behaviour and those that are defending her actions, that that is way out of line.

    Looking the other way because it is the easiest, most convenient, thing to do and the victims may not be easy to like is exactly what happened not only with Jimmy Saville but also in Rochdale, Rotherham and countless other places. It is an uncomfortable analogy, but it is an entirely appropriate one.

    I totally disagree. There are levels. And we should be careful about things, as iSam says, you rachet everything up to 11 and you turn people to the extremes.

    Patel screaming and shouting at employees is unacceptable. If she was a man, no way she would still be in position even with Boris interference. She is clearly a very bad boss and not capable of the role she is in.

    But is not even comparable to for instance Brown physically shoving people out the way, throwing phones at them, and where a good day was "just" some screaming / shouting, and that shouldn't be compared to anything like the evils of grooming gangs
    This is completely missing the point of the tweet, which is not to opine on Patel's behaviour/actions, but on the "defence" of her by the MP.



    Yes, the point of the tweet was to make people supporting Patel look like they were the type of person who would support a paedophile rapist. To be fair, a lot of people, several on here, seem to think that they are.
    The point could also have been made by saying: It's like saying I don't believe these allegations against Chris Huhne, I've met him loads of times and he never asked me to take any speeding points. The lesson for these tory MPs is: if you don't behave in a way which invites contemptuous derision, your supporters won't have to waste hours of their lives arguing on internet forums whether it is an acceptable kind of contemptuous derision.
    Oh pity those nerds who waste time on internet forums! What wallies eh?!!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,372
    edited November 2020

    Anyway, George Galloway has been sticking it to the man through the medium of wallpaper stripping and colour charts. No word if the Lenin of laminate is now a political prisoner.

    https://twitter.com/MhairiHunter/status/1330117100657119244?s=20

    Technically he should not be fined anyway and unlikely to be doing anything wrong given he is going to the Borders, Sturgeon has now split Scotland apart with Glasgow and the central belt in full lockdown while the Borders and Highlands have barely any restrictions at all, the way she has applied her tier system is exactly what some were criticising Boris for a few weeks ago before he imposed the England wide lockdown
  • isamisam Posts: 38,441
    Alistair said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    I clicked on this tweet by the ex-Change UK candidate and ex-BBC News man Gavin Esler, a supposed moderate who has been driven mad by Brexit, expecting people to be outraged by his drawing a parallel between workplace shouting and swearing, & rape and paedophilia - but no! The majority seem to be agreeing with him and happy to accept the comparison

    https://twitter.com/gavinesler/status/1329908960766414848?s=20

    That's because it's not a comparison; it's an analogy.
    Oh well if it is an analogy I suppose that makes all the difference!
    The comparison isn't between Patel and Saville.
    I know, it's between people defending swearing and shouting at work and people defending rape and paedophilia
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 34,460
    isam said:

    alex_ said:

    isam said:

    I clicked on this tweet by the ex-Change UK candidate and ex-BBC News man Gavin Esler, a supposed moderate who has been driven mad by Brexit, expecting people to be outraged by his drawing a parallel between workplace shouting and swearing, & rape and paedophilia - but no! The majority seem to be agreeing with him and happy to accept the comparison

    https://twitter.com/gavinesler/status/1329908960766414848?s=20

    That's because it's not a comparison; it's an analogy.
    It is totally unacceptable comparison or analogy. By all means criticize Patel behaviour and those that are defending her actions, that that is way out of line.

    Looking the other way because it is the easiest, most convenient, thing to do and the victims may not be easy to like is exactly what happened not only with Jimmy Saville but also in Rochdale, Rotherham and countless other places. It is an uncomfortable analogy, but it is an entirely appropriate one.

    I totally disagree. There are levels. And we should be careful about things, as iSam says, you rachet everything up to 11 and you turn people to the extremes.

    Patel screaming and shouting at employees is unacceptable. If she was a man, no way she would still be in position even with Boris interference. She is clearly a very bad boss and not capable of the role she is in.

    But is not even comparable to for instance Brown physically shoving people out the way, throwing phones at them, and where a good day was "just" some screaming / shouting, and that shouldn't be compared to anything like the evils of grooming gangs
    This is completely missing the point of the tweet, which is not to opine on Patel's behaviour/actions, but on the "defence" of her by the MP.



    Yes, the point of the tweet was to make people supporting Patel look like they were the type of person who would support a paedophile rapist. To be fair, a lot of people, several on here, seem to think that they are.
    Hmmmm , I could not comment on Tories
  • isamisam Posts: 38,441

    Anyway, George Galloway has been sticking it to the man through the medium of wallpaper stripping and colour charts. No word if the Lenin of laminate is now a political prisoner.

    https://twitter.com/MhairiHunter/status/1330117100657119244?s=20

    I'm going to need a very long long shower after saying this, but I think George Galloway has a point.

    I'm not sure the Scotland Act gives Holyrood the competence on who many enter Scotland, it violates a few international treaties I think as well as it restricts travel inside the Common Travel Area and FoM for EU citizens.

    On the latter point, I've always said Nats and Brexiteers are two cheeks of the same arse, this again proves it.

    Now off for a very long shower.
    Long shower in the Soccer AM meaning?
  • Foxy said:

    The most "interesting" interview I ever had, I was interviewed by the owner and his opening line was basically, I think you are a f##king moron, convince me you aren't. 2hrs of "discussion" and he offered me the job.

    My weirdest one was as a junior doctor applying for a Teaching Hospital job. There were two interviewers. One really genial, who remained smiling and seated, and one who was like a bear with a sore head*. He paced up and down behind my back, asking questions such as "I see you are working in XXX hospital. Is it as bad as they say?" A tricky one! Obviously I wanted to move, but didn't want to rubbish my existing experience and training.

    I got the job.

    *I later found out that he had terrible sciatica, hence bizarre behaviour and manner.

    Maybe he should have asked if you knew a good treatment for sciatica. I was interviewed for medical school decades back but did not get in. The questions were something like: Is your father a doctor? Uncle? Grandfather? It was like Doctor in the House where the Dean is only interested in making up the St Swithins' rugby team.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 30,162
    edited November 2020
    HYUFD said:

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    First 2024 GOP primary polls post election are out and have Trump ahead followed by Romney if he decides to run again, otherwise Pence followed by Romney are the top 2

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1328758765248770049?s=20

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1328759344549203968?s=20

    Welcome back, comrade chairman. :D
    Thanks, believe I was banned for a period for commenting about a James Kelly commissioned poll (which are sacrosanct apparently) which is fine as long as Scotland in Union polls are also treated as sacrosanct too. Plus have had other things to do elsewhere
    Back with a shot of HYUFD 'truth' I see.
    You implied the poll was fixed and that therefore the pollsters were complicit in that, nothing to do with James Kelly being sacrosanct.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 15,441
    HYUFD said:

    Anyway, George Galloway has been sticking it to the man through the medium of wallpaper stripping and colour charts. No word if the Lenin of laminate is now a political prisoner.

    https://twitter.com/MhairiHunter/status/1330117100657119244?s=20

    Technically he should not be fined anyway and unlikely to be doing anything wrong given he is going to the Borders, Sturgeon has now split Scotland apart with Glasgow and the central belt in full lockdown while the Borders and Highlands have barely any restrictions at all, the way she has applied her tier system is exactly what some were criticising Boris for a few weeks ago before he imposed the England wide lockdown
    Rule of law, remember. A good Conservative principle.

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 34,460

    Anyway, George Galloway has been sticking it to the man through the medium of wallpaper stripping and colour charts. No word if the Lenin of laminate is now a political prisoner.

    https://twitter.com/MhairiHunter/status/1330117100657119244?s=20

    I'm going to need a very long long shower after saying this, but I think George Galloway has a point.

    I'm not sure the Scotland Act gives Holyrood the competence on who many enter Scotland, it violates a few international treaties I think as well as it restricts travel inside the Common Travel Area and FoM for EU citizens.

    On the latter point, I've always said Nats and Brexiteers are two cheeks of the same arse, this again proves it.

    Now off for a very long shower.
    Given the tool is breaking the law in England is the real point. He is so thick and bigoted he does not even realise he is a thick stupid bellend.
    If only the tool had read the Scottish rules, still it lifted the spirits of his 3 supporters and made him feel important in the mistaken impression that anyone would recognise the arsehole or care.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 15,441
    edited November 2020

    Anyway, George Galloway has been sticking it to the man through the medium of wallpaper stripping and colour charts. No word if the Lenin of laminate is now a political prisoner.

    https://twitter.com/MhairiHunter/status/1330117100657119244?s=20

    I'm going to need a very long long shower after saying this, but I think George Galloway has a point.

    I'm not sure the Scotland Act gives Holyrood the competence on who many enter Scotland, it violates a few international treaties I think as well as it restricts travel inside the Common Travel Area and FoM for EU citizens.

    On the latter point, I've always said Nats and Brexiteers are two cheeks of the same arse, this again proves it.

    Now off for a very long shower.
    I Must have missed the 75% support for Brexit in Scotland.

  • alex_alex_ Posts: 6,906
    isam said:

    Alistair said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    I clicked on this tweet by the ex-Change UK candidate and ex-BBC News man Gavin Esler, a supposed moderate who has been driven mad by Brexit, expecting people to be outraged by his drawing a parallel between workplace shouting and swearing, & rape and paedophilia - but no! The majority seem to be agreeing with him and happy to accept the comparison

    https://twitter.com/gavinesler/status/1329908960766414848?s=20

    That's because it's not a comparison; it's an analogy.
    Oh well if it is an analogy I suppose that makes all the difference!
    The comparison isn't between Patel and Saville.
    I know, it's between people defending swearing and shouting at work and people defending rape and paedophilia
    In fact it's completely the opposite. The argument specifically rests on the assumption that the MP wouldn't defend Savile.

    But if you don't understand reductio ad absurdam then you won't get that.
  • HYUFD said:

    Some interesting comments from Obama in his new book about his relationship with Cameron

    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1328667012529352704?s=20

    The reason I welcome Boris of all our Etonian overlords is he recognises austerity doesn't work.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 34,460
    alex_ said:

    Exceptions Part 3

    n Level 3 travel to attend a gathering which relates to a marriage ceremony or civil partnership registration
    in Level 4 travel to attend a marriage ceremony or registration of a civil partnership
    travel for gatherings related to funerals or for compassionate reasons which relate to the end of a person’s life. This includes gatherings related to the scattering of ashes
    travel to or from a level 3 area (but not to or from a level 4 area) for the purposes of driving lessons or taking a driving test
    if you are a minister of religion or worship leader, travel for the purposes of leading an act of worship
    (to or from Level 3 local authority areas, but not to or from Level 4) travel to attend your normal place of worship
    travel to donate blood
    travel to transit through a Level 3 or 4 local authority area by road or public transport if your journey begins and ends outside such an area;
    travel to move home or for activities in connection with the essential maintenance, purchase, sale, letting, or rental of residential property that a person owns or is otherwise responsible for
    travel to avoid injury, illness or to escape a risk of harm
    for those involved in professional sports, travelling to training or competing in an event
    to visit a person receiving treatment in a hospital, staying in a hospice or care home, or to accompany a person to a medical appointment
    travel to register or vote in an Scottish or UK Parliament, Local Government or overseas election or by-election, including on behalf of someone else by proxy
    travel to visit a person detained in prison, young offenders institute, remand centre, secure accommodation or other place of detention

    So basically you've got to work pretty hard to break the law. And Galloway won't be.
    Except in England
  • A Dutch journalist managed to gatecrash a confidential video conference of EU defence ministers.

    Daniel Verlaan of RTL Nieuws joined the meeting after the Dutch defence minister accidentally posted some of the login details on Twitter.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55027641
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 15,441
    HYUFD said:

    Anyway, George Galloway has been sticking it to the man through the medium of wallpaper stripping and colour charts. No word if the Lenin of laminate is now a political prisoner.

    https://twitter.com/MhairiHunter/status/1330117100657119244?s=20

    Technically he should not be fined anyway and unlikely to be doing anything wrong given he is going to the Borders, Sturgeon has now split Scotland apart with Glasgow and the central belt in full lockdown while the Borders and Highlands have barely any restrictions at all, the way she has applied her tier system is exactly what some were criticising Boris for a few weeks ago before he imposed the England wide lockdown
    And also a good Conservative principle is minimising interference by the State. Tiered controls adjusted to the local situation are plainly more Tory than nation-wide lockdowns. Not sure what that says about Mr J, mind.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,441
    alex_ said:

    isam said:

    Alistair said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    I clicked on this tweet by the ex-Change UK candidate and ex-BBC News man Gavin Esler, a supposed moderate who has been driven mad by Brexit, expecting people to be outraged by his drawing a parallel between workplace shouting and swearing, & rape and paedophilia - but no! The majority seem to be agreeing with him and happy to accept the comparison

    https://twitter.com/gavinesler/status/1329908960766414848?s=20

    That's because it's not a comparison; it's an analogy.
    Oh well if it is an analogy I suppose that makes all the difference!
    The comparison isn't between Patel and Saville.
    I know, it's between people defending swearing and shouting at work and people defending rape and paedophilia
    In fact it's completely the opposite. The argument specifically rests on the assumption that the MP wouldn't defend Savile.

    But if you don't understand reductio ad absurdam then you won't get that.
    What I do understand, which you probably do as well but wont admit, is that Gavin Esler used the example of Jimmy Savile in order to tenuously smear people who defend Patel as being on the side of paedophiles
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 15,441
    HYUFD said:
    You've been missing Mr Leonard's recentr speech.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 25,304
    DavidL said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    DavidL said:

    What is truly astonishing, from a UK perspective, is that Trump has received 73.8m votes, far more than any candidate in history other than Joe Biden. Trump has very few supporters on this board, @MrEd is the only one that instantly comes to mind although @HYUFD dabbled, mainly, in fairness, pointing out that his chances were better than we thought. It shows the incredible gulf between American politics and mindset and ours.


    I wanted him to win because a) What's the difference, really? He and Biden are both venal scum enslaved to capital. b) A Trump win would be better because of the apocalyptic chaos that would ensue if he lost and c) I thought it would be funny.
    Apologies @Dura_Ace , of all our regular contributors I find you the most difficult to place. Anarchist in love with some mechanical products of capitalism seems closest.

    I should say, by the way, that the likes of @MrEd are genuinely useful in contributing to this site. It needs disparate views to flourish. I am in no way criticising him or @HYUFD. On most topics the balance of views here reflects the balance of views amongst the population that actually care. On Trump, however, not so much. We just don't get it.
    More Trump fanciers than that on here. Contrarian. Hughes. Alexander. There's 3 from a superquick contemplation. And I'd say at least another 6 who were rooting for him to win but would deny it. Who I won't list since I don't want any unpleasantness today.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,372

    HYUFD said:

    Some interesting comments from Obama in his new book about his relationship with Cameron

    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1328667012529352704?s=20

    The reason I welcome Boris of all our Etonian overlords is he recognises austerity doesn't work.
    Yes, Boris is more of a big spender than Cameron was but more culturally conservative (though still relatively social liberal)
  • Carnyx said:

    Anyway, George Galloway has been sticking it to the man through the medium of wallpaper stripping and colour charts. No word if the Lenin of laminate is now a political prisoner.

    https://twitter.com/MhairiHunter/status/1330117100657119244?s=20

    I'm going to need a very long long shower after saying this, but I think George Galloway has a point.

    I'm not sure the Scotland Act gives Holyrood the competence on who many enter Scotland, it violates a few international treaties I think as well as it restricts travel inside the Common Travel Area and FoM for EU citizens.

    On the latter point, I've always said Nats and Brexiteers are two cheeks of the same arse, this again proves it.

    Now off for a very long shower.
    I Must have missed the 75% support for Brexit in Scotland.

    I believe it peaked in the polls at around that in 1975, when Scotland was dragged against its will into the EC by England.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,523
    alex_ said:

    isam said:

    alex_ said:

    isam said:

    I clicked on this tweet by the ex-Change UK candidate and ex-BBC News man Gavin Esler, a supposed moderate who has been driven mad by Brexit, expecting people to be outraged by his drawing a parallel between workplace shouting and swearing, & rape and paedophilia - but no! The majority seem to be agreeing with him and happy to accept the comparison

    https://twitter.com/gavinesler/status/1329908960766414848?s=20

    That's because it's not a comparison; it's an analogy.
    It is totally unacceptable comparison or analogy. By all means criticize Patel behaviour and those that are defending her actions, that that is way out of line.

    Looking the other way because it is the easiest, most convenient, thing to do and the victims may not be easy to like is exactly what happened not only with Jimmy Saville but also in Rochdale, Rotherham and countless other places. It is an uncomfortable analogy, but it is an entirely appropriate one.

    I totally disagree. There are levels. And we should be careful about things, as iSam says, you rachet everything up to 11 and you turn people to the extremes.

    Patel screaming and shouting at employees is unacceptable. If she was a man, no way she would still be in position even with Boris interference. She is clearly a very bad boss and not capable of the role she is in.

    But is not even comparable to for instance Brown physically shoving people out the way, throwing phones at them, and where a good day was "just" some screaming / shouting, and that shouldn't be compared to anything like the evils of grooming gangs
    This is completely missing the point of the tweet, which is not to opine on Patel's behaviour/actions, but on the "defence" of her by the MP.



    Yes, the point of the tweet was to make people supporting Patel look like they were the type of person who would support a paedophile rapist. To be fair, a lot of people, several on here, seem to think that they are.
    No the point of the tweet was to show how the defence of Patel put forward, if valid, could also logically be used to clear Savile. Since nobody would accept it as a defence of Savile, therefore it cannot be used as a defence of Patel. Using Savile as an example is deliberate and entirely correct for what is being said.

    There may well be other defences that could be offered of Patel, but this is not one of them.
    The New Labour defence of Patel, following the John Prescott Punching a Voter Line, would be:

    "Priti is Priti...."
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 1,821
    malcolmg said:

    Anyway, George Galloway has been sticking it to the man through the medium of wallpaper stripping and colour charts. No word if the Lenin of laminate is now a political prisoner.

    https://twitter.com/MhairiHunter/status/1330117100657119244?s=20

    He got a real roasting as well, what a bellend he really is.
    roasted bellend. sounds like dinner on I'm a Celebrity.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 15,441

    Carnyx said:

    Anyway, George Galloway has been sticking it to the man through the medium of wallpaper stripping and colour charts. No word if the Lenin of laminate is now a political prisoner.

    https://twitter.com/MhairiHunter/status/1330117100657119244?s=20

    I'm going to need a very long long shower after saying this, but I think George Galloway has a point.

    I'm not sure the Scotland Act gives Holyrood the competence on who many enter Scotland, it violates a few international treaties I think as well as it restricts travel inside the Common Travel Area and FoM for EU citizens.

    On the latter point, I've always said Nats and Brexiteers are two cheeks of the same arse, this again proves it.

    Now off for a very long shower.
    I Must have missed the 75% support for Brexit in Scotland.

    I believe it peaked in the polls at around that in 1975, when Scotland was dragged against its will into the EC by England.
    45 years ago? (I'm impressed by your ability to use a keyboard in the shower.) About as historically relevant as Darien, unless you are a Brexiter. Which reminds me I have just bought a new book on the Defiant fighter - looking forward very much to reading it.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,723
    edited November 2020
    Might be seeing a turning of the corner on deaths,

    https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1330158054525067265?s=20
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 15,441
    edited November 2020

    malcolmg said:

    Anyway, George Galloway has been sticking it to the man through the medium of wallpaper stripping and colour charts. No word if the Lenin of laminate is now a political prisoner.

    https://twitter.com/MhairiHunter/status/1330117100657119244?s=20

    He got a real roasting as well, what a bellend he really is.
    roasted bellend. sounds like dinner on I'm a Celebrity.
    Not far, anatomically, off the marsupial bits a certain SLAB pol had to eat on the programme, if memory serves correctly, or am I wrong?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 25,304
    £12.50
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 34,460

    Carnyx said:

    Anyway, George Galloway has been sticking it to the man through the medium of wallpaper stripping and colour charts. No word if the Lenin of laminate is now a political prisoner.

    https://twitter.com/MhairiHunter/status/1330117100657119244?s=20

    I'm going to need a very long long shower after saying this, but I think George Galloway has a point.

    I'm not sure the Scotland Act gives Holyrood the competence on who many enter Scotland, it violates a few international treaties I think as well as it restricts travel inside the Common Travel Area and FoM for EU citizens.

    On the latter point, I've always said Nats and Brexiteers are two cheeks of the same arse, this again proves it.

    Now off for a very long shower.
    I Must have missed the 75% support for Brexit in Scotland.

    I believe it peaked in the polls at around that in 1975, when Scotland was dragged against its will into the EC by England.
    Did I mistakenly misremember that 58% voted Yes to EC in 1975 or is your comment that an inadvertant instance of not telling of the truth
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,372
    edited November 2020
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:
    You've been missing Mr Leonard's recentr speech.
    Scottish Labour voters are starting to vote tactically for the Tories to beat the SNP as last week's local by election in Clackmannanshire showed, if Labour are going to regain Glasgow and central belt seats from the SNP they in turn will need Tory tactical votes.

    Ross is clearly aiming for votes beyond the central belt in his statement today, sensibly leaving the central belt battle to take on the SNP to Labour "For many people the SNP have now become about centralisation, a focus on the central belt of Scotland, and if you live in the north of Scotland, or the south of Scotland, or the islands, it now seems as if Holyrood in Edinburgh is as distant as Westminster was before devolution."

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1329576355068080130?s=20

    https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/news/6307426/scots-tory-douglas-ross-coalition-labour-snp-holyrood/?utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=scottishsuntwitter&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1605908525

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 15,441

    Carnyx said:

    Anyway, George Galloway has been sticking it to the man through the medium of wallpaper stripping and colour charts. No word if the Lenin of laminate is now a political prisoner.

    https://twitter.com/MhairiHunter/status/1330117100657119244?s=20

    I'm going to need a very long long shower after saying this, but I think George Galloway has a point.

    I'm not sure the Scotland Act gives Holyrood the competence on who many enter Scotland, it violates a few international treaties I think as well as it restricts travel inside the Common Travel Area and FoM for EU citizens.

    On the latter point, I've always said Nats and Brexiteers are two cheeks of the same arse, this again proves it.

    Now off for a very long shower.
    I Must have missed the 75% support for Brexit in Scotland.

    I believe it peaked in the polls at around that in 1975, when Scotland was dragged against its will into the EC by England.
    Seriously, though, are you just making it up, or do you have hard data for that? It's as interesting as the schiltron tactics at Bannockburn, if as relevant today - but it is intiguing.
  • kinabalu said:

    £12.50

    Have you just done an Ed Balls?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 34,460
    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    DavidL said:

    What is truly astonishing, from a UK perspective, is that Trump has received 73.8m votes, far more than any candidate in history other than Joe Biden. Trump has very few supporters on this board, @MrEd is the only one that instantly comes to mind although @HYUFD dabbled, mainly, in fairness, pointing out that his chances were better than we thought. It shows the incredible gulf between American politics and mindset and ours.


    I wanted him to win because a) What's the difference, really? He and Biden are both venal scum enslaved to capital. b) A Trump win would be better because of the apocalyptic chaos that would ensue if he lost and c) I thought it would be funny.
    Apologies @Dura_Ace , of all our regular contributors I find you the most difficult to place. Anarchist in love with some mechanical products of capitalism seems closest.

    I should say, by the way, that the likes of @MrEd are genuinely useful in contributing to this site. It needs disparate views to flourish. I am in no way criticising him or @HYUFD. On most topics the balance of views here reflects the balance of views amongst the population that actually care. On Trump, however, not so much. We just don't get it.
    More Trump fanciers than that on here. Contrarian. Hughes. Alexander. There's 3 from a superquick contemplation. And I'd say at least another 6 who were rooting for him to win but would deny it. Who I won't list since I don't want any unpleasantness today.
    Go on get a barney started , liven it up. Trump was far too left wing for Hy Fud for sure.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 34,460
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:
    You've been missing Mr Leonard's recentr speech.
    LOL, dumb and dumber , what a tag team.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 15,441
    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:
    You've been missing Mr Leonard's recentr speech.
    Scottish Labour voters are starting to vote tactically for the Tories to beat the SNP as last week's local by election in Clackmannanshire showed, if Labour are going to regain Glasgow and central belt seats from the SNP they in turn will need Tory tactical votes

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1329576355068080130?s=20

    Do you happen to know whether the leaving councillor got the first place in the original slate at the previous election, or whether s/he was lower down (in which case we are not comparing like with like)? It's a crucial piece of data for any Scottish local gmt election which cannot be meaningfully discussed until this is established.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,519

    Andy_JS said:

    "The German city of Dusseldorf was forced Monday to lift an order for residents to wear masks against the coronavirus, after a citizen successfully sued against the blanket rule."

    https://www.courthousenews.com/court-tears-up-mask-rule-in-germanys-dusseldorf/

    masks are fair enough, but blankets is def too much.
    There is duvet that would be acceptable.
  • malcolmg said:

    Carnyx said:

    Anyway, George Galloway has been sticking it to the man through the medium of wallpaper stripping and colour charts. No word if the Lenin of laminate is now a political prisoner.

    https://twitter.com/MhairiHunter/status/1330117100657119244?s=20

    I'm going to need a very long long shower after saying this, but I think George Galloway has a point.

    I'm not sure the Scotland Act gives Holyrood the competence on who many enter Scotland, it violates a few international treaties I think as well as it restricts travel inside the Common Travel Area and FoM for EU citizens.

    On the latter point, I've always said Nats and Brexiteers are two cheeks of the same arse, this again proves it.

    Now off for a very long shower.
    I Must have missed the 75% support for Brexit in Scotland.

    I believe it peaked in the polls at around that in 1975, when Scotland was dragged against its will into the EC by England.
    Did I mistakenly misremember that 58% voted Yes to EC in 1975 or is your comment that an inadvertant instance of not telling of the truth
    You remember correctly about the referendum.

    I was talking about the polling in the early 1970s, I believe the SNP were very anti joining the EC/remaining in the EC at the time.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,372
    malcolmg said:

    Carnyx said:

    Anyway, George Galloway has been sticking it to the man through the medium of wallpaper stripping and colour charts. No word if the Lenin of laminate is now a political prisoner.

    https://twitter.com/MhairiHunter/status/1330117100657119244?s=20

    I'm going to need a very long long shower after saying this, but I think George Galloway has a point.

    I'm not sure the Scotland Act gives Holyrood the competence on who many enter Scotland, it violates a few international treaties I think as well as it restricts travel inside the Common Travel Area and FoM for EU citizens.

    On the latter point, I've always said Nats and Brexiteers are two cheeks of the same arse, this again proves it.

    Now off for a very long shower.
    I Must have missed the 75% support for Brexit in Scotland.

    I believe it peaked in the polls at around that in 1975, when Scotland was dragged against its will into the EC by England.
    Did I mistakenly misremember that 58% voted Yes to EC in 1975 or is your comment that an inadvertant instance of not telling of the truth
    The Shetlands and Western Isles were the only areas of the UK to vote against staying in the EEC in 1975
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 9,556
    kinabalu said:

    £12.50

    Or Dilyn gets it.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 38,747
    HYUFD said:
    Is 'shrinking the state' code for supporting Scottish independence?
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,148
    HYUFD said:

    Some interesting comments from Obama in his new book about his relationship with Cameron

    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1328667012529352704?s=20

    So he did believe in the “green crap” after all
  • StockyStocky Posts: 7,015
    kinabalu said:

    £12.50

    Lol. Make the font bigger every time.
  • Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Anyway, George Galloway has been sticking it to the man through the medium of wallpaper stripping and colour charts. No word if the Lenin of laminate is now a political prisoner.

    https://twitter.com/MhairiHunter/status/1330117100657119244?s=20

    I'm going to need a very long long shower after saying this, but I think George Galloway has a point.

    I'm not sure the Scotland Act gives Holyrood the competence on who many enter Scotland, it violates a few international treaties I think as well as it restricts travel inside the Common Travel Area and FoM for EU citizens.

    On the latter point, I've always said Nats and Brexiteers are two cheeks of the same arse, this again proves it.

    Now off for a very long shower.
    I Must have missed the 75% support for Brexit in Scotland.

    I believe it peaked in the polls at around that in 1975, when Scotland was dragged against its will into the EC by England.
    Seriously, though, are you just making it up, or do you have hard data for that? It's as interesting as the schiltron tactics at Bannockburn, if as relevant today - but it is intiguing.
    It is genuine data, it was in a LSE politics department pamphlet from I think 2016/17, it was something to do with fishing that was a driver for those who were Eurosceptics in Scotland.

    I'll dig it out for you when I find it.
  • Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:
    You've been missing Mr Leonard's recentr speech.
    Scottish Labour voters are starting to vote tactically for the Tories to beat the SNP as last week's local by election in Clackmannanshire showed, if Labour are going to regain Glasgow and central belt seats from the SNP they in turn will need Tory tactical votes

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1329576355068080130?s=20

    Do you happen to know whether the leaving councillor got the first place in the original slate at the previous election, or whether s/he was lower down (in which case we are not comparing like with like)? It's a crucial piece of data for any Scottish local gmt election which cannot be meaningfully discussed until this is established.
    Do my eyes deceive me or does that imply that the Unionist vote is down 3.8% pts and the Indy vote up 3.8% pts? Pleasingly symmetrical.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,372
    edited November 2020

    HYUFD said:
    Is 'shrinking the state' code for supporting Scottish independence?
    Even if it was Boris is PM and Tory leader not IDS and if anything is expanding the state.

    However interesting that based on yesterday's Redcliffe poll the Tories would be largest party but Labour and the SNP combined would have more seats than the Tories and the 8 DUP MPs combined, so Starmer would become PM with SNP support despite Labour having fewer seats than the Tories, a result which would be bound to boost English nationalism, especially if Starmer tampered with EVEL

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1329804190806368256?s=20

    Leading to:

    Cons 304
    Labour 258
    SNP 58
    LDs 7
    PC 4
    Greens 1
    NI 18

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=40&LAB=39&LIB=8&Brexit=3&Green=4&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=20&SCOTLAB=18.4&SCOTLIB=5.5&SCOTBrexit=1.1&SCOTGreen=1.1&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=52.6&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019


  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,519

    Foxy said:

    The most "interesting" interview I ever had, I was interviewed by the owner and his opening line was basically, I think you are a f##king moron, convince me you aren't. 2hrs of "discussion" and he offered me the job.

    My weirdest one was as a junior doctor applying for a Teaching Hospital job. There were two interviewers. One really genial, who remained smiling and seated, and one who was like a bear with a sore head*. He paced up and down behind my back, asking questions such as "I see you are working in XXX hospital. Is it as bad as they say?" A tricky one! Obviously I wanted to move, but didn't want to rubbish my existing experience and training.

    I got the job.

    *I later found out that he had terrible sciatica, hence bizarre behaviour and manner.

    Maybe he should have asked if you knew a good treatment for sciatica. I was interviewed for medical school decades back but did not get in. The questions were something like: Is your father a doctor? Uncle? Grandfather? It was like Doctor in the House where the Dean is only interested in making up the St Swithins' rugby team.
    Very different now. Multiple mini interviews, though we are doing online interviews this year, which will be leap.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 15,441
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:
    You've been missing Mr Leonard's recentr speech.
    Scottish Labour voters are starting to vote tactically for the Tories to beat the SNP as last week's local by election in Clackmannanshire showed, if Labour are going to regain Glasgow and central belt seats from the SNP they in turn will need Tory tactical votes

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1329576355068080130?s=20

    Do you happen to know whether the leaving councillor got the first place in the original slate at the previous election, or whether s/he was lower down (in which case we are not comparing like with like)? It's a crucial piece of data for any Scottish local gmt election which cannot be meaningfully discussed until this is established.
    PS Here we are.

    Yes, Mr Mason got elected first time round. So we are comparing gherkins and cucumbers (OK, near enough, given a by election has different dynamics).

    First thing is that he got 41% last time - the two SNP got together 29.8%. A whisker under 3/4 of his vote. And the 2020 result is, in proportion, as near as dammit the same. So no primary swingf there either way.

    Also, Labour splitting on 2nd pref more or less equally for Green, LD, SNP and Tories on 2nds pref. Not much evidence of Labour tactical voting, eh?

    http://ballotbox.scot/clacks-east-result-2020
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clackmannanshire_East
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 15,441

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Anyway, George Galloway has been sticking it to the man through the medium of wallpaper stripping and colour charts. No word if the Lenin of laminate is now a political prisoner.

    https://twitter.com/MhairiHunter/status/1330117100657119244?s=20

    I'm going to need a very long long shower after saying this, but I think George Galloway has a point.

    I'm not sure the Scotland Act gives Holyrood the competence on who many enter Scotland, it violates a few international treaties I think as well as it restricts travel inside the Common Travel Area and FoM for EU citizens.

    On the latter point, I've always said Nats and Brexiteers are two cheeks of the same arse, this again proves it.

    Now off for a very long shower.
    I Must have missed the 75% support for Brexit in Scotland.

    I believe it peaked in the polls at around that in 1975, when Scotland was dragged against its will into the EC by England.
    Seriously, though, are you just making it up, or do you have hard data for that? It's as interesting as the schiltron tactics at Bannockburn, if as relevant today - but it is intiguing.
    It is genuine data, it was in a LSE politics department pamphlet from I think 2016/17, it was something to do with fishing that was a driver for those who were Eurosceptics in Scotland.

    I'll dig it out for you when I find it.
    No hurry - just interesting to see how views have changed. I was at school then - remember the politics and current affairs master talking about the matter!
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 34,460
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Anyway, George Galloway has been sticking it to the man through the medium of wallpaper stripping and colour charts. No word if the Lenin of laminate is now a political prisoner.

    https://twitter.com/MhairiHunter/status/1330117100657119244?s=20

    I'm going to need a very long long shower after saying this, but I think George Galloway has a point.

    I'm not sure the Scotland Act gives Holyrood the competence on who many enter Scotland, it violates a few international treaties I think as well as it restricts travel inside the Common Travel Area and FoM for EU citizens.

    On the latter point, I've always said Nats and Brexiteers are two cheeks of the same arse, this again proves it.

    Now off for a very long shower.
    I Must have missed the 75% support for Brexit in Scotland.

    I believe it peaked in the polls at around that in 1975, when Scotland was dragged against its will into the EC by England.
    Seriously, though, are you just making it up, or do you have hard data for that? It's as interesting as the schiltron tactics at Bannockburn, if as relevant today - but it is intiguing.
    It was 58% against EC in 1975, 10% below England. At best it will be one of HY FUD's old subsamples from an LOL meeting.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 1,914
    I think with Trump it's not so much Plan D as it is Plan 9 From Outer Space.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 34,460

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:
    You've been missing Mr Leonard's recentr speech.
    Scottish Labour voters are starting to vote tactically for the Tories to beat the SNP as last week's local by election in Clackmannanshire showed, if Labour are going to regain Glasgow and central belt seats from the SNP they in turn will need Tory tactical votes

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1329576355068080130?s=20

    Do you happen to know whether the leaving councillor got the first place in the original slate at the previous election, or whether s/he was lower down (in which case we are not comparing like with like)? It's a crucial piece of data for any Scottish local gmt election which cannot be meaningfully discussed until this is established.
    Do my eyes deceive me or does that imply that the Unionist vote is down 3.8% pts and the Indy vote up 3.8% pts? Pleasingly symmetrical.
    Oh dear the truthteller has done it again. Wonder if he is driving George up at 6am Monday to confront the police barricades.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 4,707
    edited November 2020
    IanB2 said:

    Alistair said:

    Something happened in Virginia.

    https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1329933694254133250?s=19

    You have to go back 80ish years for a double digit Dem lead.

    When I was there last year I picked up that there had been a lot of overspill from DC into Northern Virginia, such that people living in the south of the state talked about the bit near Washington as if it were a different state. I guess this demographic shift has flowed through into its voting behaviour.
    I think "overspill from DC" is mis-stating it somewhat. Over the past 20 years, the Metro DC area has consistently been one of the fastest growing metropolitan areas in terms of population in the country. This is not overspill, but massive population growth. Even DC's population has grown in that time, but MD and VA burbs and exurbs have grown much, much faster.

    For NVA, it is particularly Alexandria, Arlington and the entire corridor to Dulles, and the I-95 corridor southwards towards Richmond that has grown the most, with virtually every highly regulated industry building a substantial presence. Thus the jobs created there tend to be high tech, across the board.

    I'd say VA is now essentially 4 different states - NVA, Richmond, Tidewater* and the rest.

    * Norfolk, Portsmouth, Suffolk, Virginia Beach, Hampton Roads, Newport News - massive military and port installations.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 15,441
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:
    You've been missing Mr Leonard's recentr speech.
    Scottish Labour voters are starting to vote tactically for the Tories to beat the SNP as last week's local by election in Clackmannanshire showed, if Labour are going to regain Glasgow and central belt seats from the SNP they in turn will need Tory tactical votes

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1329576355068080130?s=20

    Do you happen to know whether the leaving councillor got the first place in the original slate at the previous election, or whether s/he was lower down (in which case we are not comparing like with like)? It's a crucial piece of data for any Scottish local gmt election which cannot be meaningfully discussed until this is established.
    PS Here we are.

    Yes, Mr Mason got elected first time round. So we are comparing gherkins and cucumbers (OK, near enough, given a by election has different dynamics).

    First thing is that he got 41% last time - the two SNP got together 29.8%. A whisker under 3/4 of his vote. And the 2020 result is, in proportion, as near as dammit the same. So no primary swingf there either way.

    Also, Labour splitting on 2nd pref more or less equally for Green, LD, SNP and Tories on 2nds pref. Not much evidence of Labour tactical voting, eh?

    http://ballotbox.scot/clacks-east-result-2020
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clackmannanshire_East
    Sorry, mental arithmetic not working. Switched off andf on again. Tory vote certainly up, SNP one not nearly so much, but has held.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 25,304
    edited November 2020
    Just spoken to SPIN about their US election markets. Informed that they plan to settle the Outright Winner market on Monday after the certification of PA and MI. So maybe my theory lives and Betfair will do that too.
  • kinabalu said:

    Just spoken to SPIN about their US election markets. Informed that they plan to settle the Outright Winner market on Monday after the certification of PA and MI. So maybe my theory lives and Betfair will do that too.

    Betfair is the Trump of betting. They're always a few days away from doing something reasonable, always on the cusp of responsible, sensible action. Today -- just today -- they remain grifting bastards. But tomorrow..
  • RogerRoger Posts: 14,916
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:
    You've been missing Mr Leonard's recentr speech.
    Goodbye to Labour in Scotland if that happens
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,372
    edited November 2020

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:
    You've been missing Mr Leonard's recentr speech.
    Scottish Labour voters are starting to vote tactically for the Tories to beat the SNP as last week's local by election in Clackmannanshire showed, if Labour are going to regain Glasgow and central belt seats from the SNP they in turn will need Tory tactical votes

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1329576355068080130?s=20

    Do you happen to know whether the leaving councillor got the first place in the original slate at the previous election, or whether s/he was lower down (in which case we are not comparing like with like)? It's a crucial piece of data for any Scottish local gmt election which cannot be meaningfully discussed until this is established.
    Do my eyes deceive me or does that imply that the Unionist vote is down 3.8% pts and the Indy vote up 3.8% pts? Pleasingly symmetrical.
    Irrelevant as most Holyrood seats are constituencies elected under FPTP not preferential voting, so as long as the lead Unionist party's vote is up it does not matter if the combined Unionist total is down in terms of beating the SNP (though obviously the other Unionist parties would also gain seats on the PR list).

    So that is why Labour voters last time voting Tory as their first preference this time in that by election could be so crucial if it becomes a trend for Holyrood 2021
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,155
    IanB2 said:

    Alistair said:

    Something happened in Virginia.

    https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1329933694254133250?s=19

    You have to go back 80ish years for a double digit Dem lead.

    When I was there last year I picked up that there had been a lot of overspill from DC into Northern Virginia, such that people living in the south of the state talked about the bit near Washington as if it were a different state. I guess this demographic shift has flowed through into its voting behaviour.
    The only way I can see DC becoming a State and getting senators would be if that part of Virginia was transferred over to it so that Virginia was once again in play as a Republican State. Possibly some of Maryland on the same basis.
  • Roger said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:
    You've been missing Mr Leonard's recentr speech.
    Goodbye to Labour in Scotland if that happens
    "In response, Scottish Labour leader Richard Leonard said: "In the week we learned that Boris Johnson and the Tories think devolution is a 'disaster', Douglas Ross has got a nerve to even suggest this."
  • Roy_G_BivRoy_G_Biv Posts: 998
    edited November 2020
    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:
    You've been missing Mr Leonard's recentr speech.
    Scottish Labour voters are starting to vote tactically for the Tories to beat the SNP as last week's local by election in Clackmannanshire showed, if Labour are going to regain Glasgow and central belt seats from the SNP they in turn will need Tory tactical votes

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1329576355068080130?s=20

    Do you happen to know whether the leaving councillor got the first place in the original slate at the previous election, or whether s/he was lower down (in which case we are not comparing like with like)? It's a crucial piece of data for any Scottish local gmt election which cannot be meaningfully discussed until this is established.
    Do my eyes deceive me or does that imply that the Unionist vote is down 3.8% pts and the Indy vote up 3.8% pts? Pleasingly symmetrical.
    Irrelevant as most Holyrood seats are constituencies elected under FPTP not preferential voting, so as long as the lead Unionist party's vote is up it does not matter if the combined Unionist total is down in terms of beating the SNP (though obviously the other Unionist parties would also gain seats on the PR list).

    So that is why Labour voters last time voting Tory as their first preference this time in that by election could be so crucial if it becomes a trend for Holyrood 2021
    THIS IS EXACTLY THE KIND OF THING I WAS TALKING ABOUT EARLIER.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,155
    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    DavidL said:

    What is truly astonishing, from a UK perspective, is that Trump has received 73.8m votes, far more than any candidate in history other than Joe Biden. Trump has very few supporters on this board, @MrEd is the only one that instantly comes to mind although @HYUFD dabbled, mainly, in fairness, pointing out that his chances were better than we thought. It shows the incredible gulf between American politics and mindset and ours.


    I wanted him to win because a) What's the difference, really? He and Biden are both venal scum enslaved to capital. b) A Trump win would be better because of the apocalyptic chaos that would ensue if he lost and c) I thought it would be funny.
    Apologies @Dura_Ace , of all our regular contributors I find you the most difficult to place. Anarchist in love with some mechanical products of capitalism seems closest.

    I should say, by the way, that the likes of @MrEd are genuinely useful in contributing to this site. It needs disparate views to flourish. I am in no way criticising him or @HYUFD. On most topics the balance of views here reflects the balance of views amongst the population that actually care. On Trump, however, not so much. We just don't get it.
    More Trump fanciers than that on here. Contrarian. Hughes. Alexander. There's 3 from a superquick contemplation. And I'd say at least another 6 who were rooting for him to win but would deny it. Who I won't list since I don't want any unpleasantness today.
    @contrarian I shouldn't have forgotten and apologies to him. The other 2 I am not sure I recognise.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 15,441
    edited November 2020
    Roger said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:
    You've been missing Mr Leonard's recentr speech.
    Goodbye to Labour in Scotland if that happens
    I wonder how many votes both would lose if it came out as a formal alliance before the election? Witth the SNP, BXP and Mr Gallowa's lot salivating for any lost votes.

    I think the only realstic option conceivably is an Aberdeen style after-election alliance - but (a) that assumes that the Greens and LDs and Trots (if any) would play ball, if needed, and (b) what happens at the next election thereafter?

    The other option would be a Tory minority administration, and that assumes they have more MSPs than the SNP or at least can stop the SNP from being installed. Which latter would require Labour cooperation, or Green'LD/Trot - the klatter inherently unlikely.

    As you say, bye bye SLAB given most of its pols are pro-EU and anti-Trident.

    Of course, the Tories are happy for other parties to sacrifice themselves for the Union in Scotland, as 2014 showed very clearly.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 15,441
    o/t but interesting - Brummie smallpox outbreak. A schoolfriend of mine was a student on the floor above tle lab,l the drauight from the vents playing on his ankles when he was at his lab place. Isee however the vent theory is downplayed!

    https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/nov/21/it-was-a-total-invasion-the-virus-that-came-back-from-the-dead
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,372
    edited November 2020
    Roger said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:
    You've been missing Mr Leonard's recentr speech.
    Goodbye to Labour in Scotland if that happens
    Labour has precisely 1 Scottish MP who was only elected thanks to Tory tactical votes in Edinburgh South and has fewer MSPs than both the SNP and the Tories, exactly what is there to say goodbye to in terms of Labour in Scotland? Labour needs Tory tactical votes to win SNP seats in Glasgow and the central belt, it is as simple as that
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 6,906
    Somebody in Trump's camp seems to have persuaded him that all that needs to happen is that he needs to demonstrate that fraud is possible (regardless of whether it happened, particularly on a widespread result changing basis) and then the election will be declared unsafe and he is declared the winner.

    That's the only explanation for most of the legal arguments put forward in court, such that they exist.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 15,441
    Roy_G_Biv said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:
    You've been missing Mr Leonard's recentr speech.
    Scottish Labour voters are starting to vote tactically for the Tories to beat the SNP as last week's local by election in Clackmannanshire showed, if Labour are going to regain Glasgow and central belt seats from the SNP they in turn will need Tory tactical votes

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1329576355068080130?s=20

    Do you happen to know whether the leaving councillor got the first place in the original slate at the previous election, or whether s/he was lower down (in which case we are not comparing like with like)? It's a crucial piece of data for any Scottish local gmt election which cannot be meaningfully discussed until this is established.
    Do my eyes deceive me or does that imply that the Unionist vote is down 3.8% pts and the Indy vote up 3.8% pts? Pleasingly symmetrical.
    Irrelevant as most Holyrood seats are constituencies elected under FPTP not preferential voting, so as long as the lead Unionist party's vote is up it does not matter if the combined Unionist total is down in terms of beating the SNP (though obviously the other Unionist parties would also gain seats on the PR list).

    So that is why Labour voters last time voting Tory as their first preference this time in that by election could be so crucial if it becomes a trend for Holyrood 2021
    THIS IS EXACTLY THE KIND OF THING I WAS TALKING ABOUT EARLIER.
    Also, "most": in fact 73 out of 129 use FPTP - 56.5% is hardly "most" - and the system is heavily biased agfainst winners of FPTP seats.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,155
    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:
    You've been missing Mr Leonard's recentr speech.
    Scottish Labour voters are starting to vote tactically for the Tories to beat the SNP as last week's local by election in Clackmannanshire showed, if Labour are going to regain Glasgow and central belt seats from the SNP they in turn will need Tory tactical votes

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1329576355068080130?s=20

    Do you happen to know whether the leaving councillor got the first place in the original slate at the previous election, or whether s/he was lower down (in which case we are not comparing like with like)? It's a crucial piece of data for any Scottish local gmt election which cannot be meaningfully discussed until this is established.
    Do my eyes deceive me or does that imply that the Unionist vote is down 3.8% pts and the Indy vote up 3.8% pts? Pleasingly symmetrical.
    Irrelevant as most Holyrood seats are constituencies elected under FPTP not preferential voting, so as long as the lead Unionist party's vote is up it does not matter if the combined Unionist total is down in terms of beating the SNP (though obviously the other Unionist parties would also gain seats on the PR list).

    So that is why Labour voters last time voting Tory as their first preference this time in that by election could be so crucial if it becomes a trend for Holyrood 2021
    Speaking personally, I find an SKS led Labour Party a lot more attractive for the purposes of tactical voting than a Corbyn one would ever have been. It won't matter in May because then I am in Angus which is a straight SNP/Tory fight but for the next Westminster election where I am in Dundee West I will be giving it serious consideration, provided the polls indicate that Labour is in with some sort of a shout.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 15,441
    Roy_G_Biv said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:
    You've been missing Mr Leonard's recentr speech.
    Scottish Labour voters are starting to vote tactically for the Tories to beat the SNP as last week's local by election in Clackmannanshire showed, if Labour are going to regain Glasgow and central belt seats from the SNP they in turn will need Tory tactical votes

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1329576355068080130?s=20

    Do you happen to know whether the leaving councillor got the first place in the original slate at the previous election, or whether s/he was lower down (in which case we are not comparing like with like)? It's a crucial piece of data for any Scottish local gmt election which cannot be meaningfully discussed until this is established.
    Do my eyes deceive me or does that imply that the Unionist vote is down 3.8% pts and the Indy vote up 3.8% pts? Pleasingly symmetrical.
    Irrelevant as most Holyrood seats are constituencies elected under FPTP not preferential voting, so as long as the lead Unionist party's vote is up it does not matter if the combined Unionist total is down in terms of beating the SNP (though obviously the other Unionist parties would also gain seats on the PR list).

    So that is why Labour voters last time voting Tory as their first preference this time in that by election could be so crucial if it becomes a trend for Holyrood 2021
    THIS IS EXACTLY THE KIND OF THING I WAS TALKING ABOUT EARLIER.
    I see HYUFD "likes" your comment.
  • Carnyx said:

    Roy_G_Biv said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:
    You've been missing Mr Leonard's recentr speech.
    Scottish Labour voters are starting to vote tactically for the Tories to beat the SNP as last week's local by election in Clackmannanshire showed, if Labour are going to regain Glasgow and central belt seats from the SNP they in turn will need Tory tactical votes

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1329576355068080130?s=20

    Do you happen to know whether the leaving councillor got the first place in the original slate at the previous election, or whether s/he was lower down (in which case we are not comparing like with like)? It's a crucial piece of data for any Scottish local gmt election which cannot be meaningfully discussed until this is established.
    Do my eyes deceive me or does that imply that the Unionist vote is down 3.8% pts and the Indy vote up 3.8% pts? Pleasingly symmetrical.
    Irrelevant as most Holyrood seats are constituencies elected under FPTP not preferential voting, so as long as the lead Unionist party's vote is up it does not matter if the combined Unionist total is down in terms of beating the SNP (though obviously the other Unionist parties would also gain seats on the PR list).

    So that is why Labour voters last time voting Tory as their first preference this time in that by election could be so crucial if it becomes a trend for Holyrood 2021
    THIS IS EXACTLY THE KIND OF THING I WAS TALKING ABOUT EARLIER.
    Also, "most": in fact 73 out of 129 use FPTP - 56.5% is hardly "most" - and the system is heavily biased agfainst winners of FPTP seats.
    Exactly. A faintly off-topic HYUFD-drop of facts designed to produce a misleading impression, to rebut a point that he has not, in fact, answered at all.
    Squid-ink tactics.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Some interesting comments from Obama in his new book about his relationship with Cameron

    https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1328667012529352704?s=20

    The reason I welcome Boris of all our Etonian overlords is he recognises austerity doesn't work.
    Yes, Boris is more of a big spender than Cameron was but more culturally conservative (though still relatively social liberal)
    Good to see you back!
  • Carnyx said:

    Roy_G_Biv said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:
    You've been missing Mr Leonard's recentr speech.
    Scottish Labour voters are starting to vote tactically for the Tories to beat the SNP as last week's local by election in Clackmannanshire showed, if Labour are going to regain Glasgow and central belt seats from the SNP they in turn will need Tory tactical votes

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1329576355068080130?s=20

    Do you happen to know whether the leaving councillor got the first place in the original slate at the previous election, or whether s/he was lower down (in which case we are not comparing like with like)? It's a crucial piece of data for any Scottish local gmt election which cannot be meaningfully discussed until this is established.
    Do my eyes deceive me or does that imply that the Unionist vote is down 3.8% pts and the Indy vote up 3.8% pts? Pleasingly symmetrical.
    Irrelevant as most Holyrood seats are constituencies elected under FPTP not preferential voting, so as long as the lead Unionist party's vote is up it does not matter if the combined Unionist total is down in terms of beating the SNP (though obviously the other Unionist parties would also gain seats on the PR list).

    So that is why Labour voters last time voting Tory as their first preference this time in that by election could be so crucial if it becomes a trend for Holyrood 2021
    THIS IS EXACTLY THE KIND OF THING I WAS TALKING ABOUT EARLIER.
    I see HYUFD "likes" your comment.
    Probably a misunderstanding and he thinks I'm agreeing with him.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 14,916
    Time for Labour to get Jess Phillips into Starmer's shadow cabinet. Just heard her on 'Any Questions' and she's likable and feisty.


    Not something you could say about 90% of the Shadow Cabinet
  • felixfelix Posts: 13,714
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:
    You've been missing Mr Leonard's recentr speech.
    Scottish Labour voters are starting to vote tactically for the Tories to beat the SNP as last week's local by election in Clackmannanshire showed, if Labour are going to regain Glasgow and central belt seats from the SNP they in turn will need Tory tactical votes

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1329576355068080130?s=20

    Do you happen to know whether the leaving councillor got the first place in the original slate at the previous election, or whether s/he was lower down (in which case we are not comparing like with like)? It's a crucial piece of data for any Scottish local gmt election which cannot be meaningfully discussed until this is established.
    2017 result:
    Con: 1,452
    SNP: 1,055
    Lab: 706
    LDem: 151
    Grn: 132
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 34,460
    Carnyx said:

    Roger said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:
    You've been missing Mr Leonard's recentr speech.
    Goodbye to Labour in Scotland if that happens
    I wonder how many votes both would lose if it came out as a formal alliance before the election? Witth the SNP, BXP and Mr Gallowa's lot salivating for any lost votes.

    I think the only realstic option conceivably is an Aberdeen style after-election alliance - but (a) that assumes that the Greens and LDs and Trots (if any) would play ball, if needed, and (b) what happens at the next election thereafter?

    The other option would be a Tory minority administration, and that assumes they have more MSPs than the SNP or at least can stop the SNP from being installed. Which latter would require Labour cooperation, or Green'LD/Trot - the klatter inherently unlikely.

    As you say, bye bye SLAB given most of its pols are pro-EU and anti-Trident.

    Of course, the Tories are happy for other parties to sacrifice themselves for the Union in Scotland, as 2014 showed very clearly.
    There is more chance of me being the next Pope than the Tories leading Holyrood , with or without the pygmies to support them.
  • DavidL said:

    but for the next Westminster election

    It's the hope that kills you...
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 15,441
    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:
    You've been missing Mr Leonard's recentr speech.
    Scottish Labour voters are starting to vote tactically for the Tories to beat the SNP as last week's local by election in Clackmannanshire showed, if Labour are going to regain Glasgow and central belt seats from the SNP they in turn will need Tory tactical votes

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1329576355068080130?s=20

    Do you happen to know whether the leaving councillor got the first place in the original slate at the previous election, or whether s/he was lower down (in which case we are not comparing like with like)? It's a crucial piece of data for any Scottish local gmt election which cannot be meaningfully discussed until this is established.
    Do my eyes deceive me or does that imply that the Unionist vote is down 3.8% pts and the Indy vote up 3.8% pts? Pleasingly symmetrical.
    Irrelevant as most Holyrood seats are constituencies elected under FPTP not preferential voting, so as long as the lead Unionist party's vote is up it does not matter if the combined Unionist total is down in terms of beating the SNP (though obviously the other Unionist parties would also gain seats on the PR list).

    So that is why Labour voters last time voting Tory as their first preference this time in that by election could be so crucial if it becomes a trend for Holyrood 2021
    Speaking personally, I find an SKS led Labour Party a lot more attractive for the purposes of tactical voting than a Corbyn one would ever have been. It won't matter in May because then I am in Angus which is a straight SNP/Tory fight but for the next Westminster election where I am in Dundee West I will be giving it serious consideration, provided the polls indicate that Labour is in with some sort of a shout.
    Hmm, interesting. Yet Mr Leonard? And the danger that Labour might itself eat into the Tory vote elsewhere and overtake them, certainly at Holyrood? I can;'t judge that last offhand, but if you are an anti-Brexit Unionist ...
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 34,460

    DavidL said:

    but for the next Westminster election

    It's the hope that kills you...
    Tories are 10x worse than the Scottish football team, anything more than a tandem is a victory.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,155
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:
    You've been missing Mr Leonard's recentr speech.
    Scottish Labour voters are starting to vote tactically for the Tories to beat the SNP as last week's local by election in Clackmannanshire showed, if Labour are going to regain Glasgow and central belt seats from the SNP they in turn will need Tory tactical votes

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1329576355068080130?s=20

    Do you happen to know whether the leaving councillor got the first place in the original slate at the previous election, or whether s/he was lower down (in which case we are not comparing like with like)? It's a crucial piece of data for any Scottish local gmt election which cannot be meaningfully discussed until this is established.
    PS Here we are.

    Yes, Mr Mason got elected first time round. So we are comparing gherkins and cucumbers (OK, near enough, given a by election has different dynamics).

    First thing is that he got 41% last time - the two SNP got together 29.8%. A whisker under 3/4 of his vote. And the 2020 result is, in proportion, as near as dammit the same. So no primary swingf there either way.

    Also, Labour splitting on 2nd pref more or less equally for Green, LD, SNP and Tories on 2nds pref. Not much evidence of Labour tactical voting, eh?

    http://ballotbox.scot/clacks-east-result-2020
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clackmannanshire_East
    Sorry, mental arithmetic not working. Switched off andf on again. Tory vote certainly up, SNP one not nearly so much, but has held.
    Very obviously the Tory vote is up and the Labour vote is down, the extent of the fall exceeding the Tory gain so there is something for everyone: an increase in the efficiency of the Unionist vote but a small swing to independence orientated parties. As you were, really.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,148
    Stocky said:

    Roger said:

    Roy_G_Biv said:

    DavidL said:

    What is truly astonishing, from a UK perspective, is that Trump has received 73.8m votes, far more than any candidate in history other than Joe Biden. Trump has very few supporters on this board, @MrEd is the only one that instantly comes to mind although @HYUFD dabbled, mainly, in fairness, pointing out that his chances were better than we thought. It shows the incredible gulf between American politics and mindset and ours.

    Millions of Americans clearly believe that Biden is some sort of a socialist. Other than being thick I really struggle to see any evidence for that at all in a very long career. Their definition of socialism would clearly include most of the current Tory party.

    I think that it is very difficult for us to predict what these millions might do. We simply do not understand their terms of reference.

    Re: HYUFD
    It's impossible to truly know someone's mind, but the tenor of his posts made me think he would have voted Trump. Of course, he repeatedly claimed that he would vote for Biden if he had a vote, but, in short, I didn't believe him.
    HYUFD is just a super-loyal Tory who goes wherever that journey takes him. He was a passionate Cameroon Remainer who became an equally passionate Johnson Leaver. He realized a Biden win would leave his new beau up shit creek so he became an obsessive Trumpster.

    Think Stretford Ender
    HYUFD`s recall of political factoids from history is extraordinary. I`ve been shot down before for saying that he largely just posts facts and some posters should lay off the rudeness towards him. He`s cherry-picking - of course - but still facts. Its`s up to us to raise our games to challenge him with equal precision.

    His policital radar is worthy of attention. Most of us were predicting large Biden win, some landslide even. HYUFD vacillated between narrow Biden, then narrow Trump then narrow Biden again. He drew our attentions to, for example, Arizona, Florida and Wisconsin repeatedly where Trump, he said, may defy the odds. He`s worth listening too even when you don`t agree.

    He`ll be back, good as ever. He`s one of the few (maybe six or seven) posters who I regard as top tier PB.com posters. I`m minor league in comparison.
    HYUFD is excellent at cherry picking polls and examples from history that make elections look promising for the right-leaning candidate. That makes him look like a sage in an era where most elections have been won by right-leaning candidates. I doubt he’d have been as successful at projecting elections in, say, the 1990s
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