politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Newark: The final day of campaigning in a battle so importa
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Newark: The final day of campaigning in a battle so important to both CON and UKIP
Either the Tories break their terrible record of losing every by-election defence while in office over the past 25 years or UKIP break their ongoing losing sequence and actually win a seat.
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Maybe when a by election comes along where UKIP have any sort of record of doing well in the constituency they might have a better chance, and criticism for not winning would be justified.
This was 248th on Goodwins list of winnable UKIP seats
Until then, second from a standing start is a decent performance, and anyone calling it failure is showing their bitterness and bias
2 hours till football
EnfieldSpurs @EnfieldSpurs · May 17
When Arsenal lose today I will laugh so hard and not drop it on here that you'll have to block me #whingelikewenger
EnfieldSpurs @EnfieldSpurs · May 17
It's a worthless cup any way... Wigan won it last year
Mike's analysis of UKIP is becoming similar to that account, which many people think is a spoof written by an Arsenal fan
Haha
But that's still an 'if'.
UKIP have played to win. It looks like they're not going to. If they don't, their irresistible march will seem that bit more resistible.
For nearly a year, we've known there's a strong chance there would be a by-election in Newark because of Patrick Mercer's scandalous behaviour.
According to the Times last night, the Tories have been planning for such an eventuality since last year, selecting their candidate last year, updating their contact lists etc.
Whereas UKIP didn't do anything until the moment Mercer stood down.I mean remember, Farage was ummming and ahhhing about standing in the seat.
That's not a good approach from UKIP if they want to target and win seats next year.
I think they can survive being called disappointing.
TSE's comment about by-election preparation is everything - there's no substitute for planning and getting going before the others get started. The LDs were past masters at this and it's a lesson insurgent parties need to learn.
That said, is this going to be the UKIP Torrington or West Derbyshire ? In the latter, the LDs got to within 100 votes of defeating the Conservatives and had Labour supporters voted tactically, that could have happened. Would it have made a scintilla of difference to the outcome of the 1987 General Election ? I doubt it.
Newark strikes me as akin to West Derbyshire in some ways politically. IF UKIP win tomorrow, it probably won't make as much difference as some on here think - if the Conservatives hold on, the same is probably true.
Farage chickened out,
Gordon Macmillan, an editor at Twitter and branding/ communications guru,
thinks (I paraphrase) that Labour and the Tories have so far been utterly rubbish at using Social Media
http://hurryupharry.org/2014/06/04/how-labour-and-the-tories-failed-to-deliver-a-digital-election/
The more votes UKIP get, the worse they are doing!!
They have improved on vote % across the whole country in the last 18 months, almost everywhere there has been an election (even the locals that some are desperately trying to spin as bad, their vote % went through the roof compared to the last time the seats were fought).
But that doesnt matter?
The Euros win didnt count because the turnout was low?
They arent going to win tomorrow, that seems certain.
But they got 3.8% in 2010 and are likely to get over 25% tomorrow.
Nevertheless, it will be bad for Farage is they come a close 2nd tomorrow and a disaster for the party if they do worse than that?
People like @Antifrank and @MikeSmithson really need to look at themselves and wonder if they are speaking rationally or are just angry that public opinion isnt with them as much as they thought it was.
Some scared people about... Nasty old UKIP are coming to get you!
"As fans of the television series The Walking Dead will know, the only way to finish off a zombie is to destroy its brain. Today and tomorrow, Cameron wants to show that his is very much intact, that the recovery is safe in his hands, and that, however unloved and unlovely his army may be, it is still active and heading in the right direction: stomping onwards remorselessly, groaning through the night towards a reanimated Britain."
At various stages of PB Mike's been accused of being irrational and ignoring public opinion, from when he said Gordon Brown would be crap before he became PM.
I suspect one of Mike's most profitable tips at the next General Election will be when he tipped UKIP to win 2 or more seats at 8/1.
Re public opinion, as you Kippers love to point out that the Lab/Lib/Con parties are the same, must be galling that more people voted for them than UKIP.
http://www.pinknews.co.uk/2014/06/04/roger-helmer-i-prefer-straight-activity-does-that-make-me-homophobic/
I can't see any.
But I was very impressed by her today.
In case you missed it Mike, as most non-partisan sensible people have already agreed, this was never a likely seat for UKIP to win. As such it will do nothing to change the narrative because no one with any sense expected anything other than a Tory win. No matter how much you might try to change that narrative everyone can see what you are trying to do so it is pointless.
If I were you I would be more concerned about whether or not the Lib Dems manage to hang on to 4th or get beating once again by the local also-rans.
Not really. The same could be said if any other party.
Ukip are the black kid in south London while the rest are the met police.
There are some wrong uns in the mix so the rest get tarred with the same brush
They get abused, accused and written off. When they achieve anything it is viewed suspiciously and damned with faint praise and when they point this out people say they have a chip on their shoulder
Like his disciples he can't cope with change so he blames the stranger or newcomer
Awww bless, you really do believe that don't you?
The Crosby by-election in 1981 was won by the SDP, a very new party at the time, even newer than UKIP are now. The Alliance did not yet exist.
Big Tory win: Good for Cameron, UKIP a bit deflated
Narrow Tory win: Score draw, with both parties able to draw comfort
Any size of UKIP win: Excellent for UKIP, potentially trouble for the Tories
Labour a bit above above or not too far below their GE vote share: No big issue, although there will be questions about why they didn't get more of the anti-Coalition votes and LibDem switchers.
Labour dropping significantly below their 2010 vote share: I think that would cause some of the tensions within the party to burst into the open, on political strategy, campaigning tactics, and the appeal or otherwise of Ed.
The thread he has written here is a perfect example of that. It is the equivalent of saying the Tory party is finished if it can't win Bootle or the Rhondda.
Good news for PBers!
Raheem Kassam (@RaheemJKassam)
04/06/2014 18:56
Bad news for #ukip coming soon, sources tell me. Watch @BreitbartLondon for breaking news.
Now you can only get 5/6.
Ukip will lose tomorrow because well the economy is on the up, the Con ground game is rolling and because Kippers alienate 2 voters for every temporary angry man protest they rustle up.
Many other b/e s have been won in more testing situations - Kippers are smoked.
A major terrorism trial is set to be held entirely in secret for the first time in British legal history in an unprecedented departure from the principles of open justice, the court of appeal has heard.
The identities of the two defendants charged with serious terror offences are being withheld from the public, and the media are banned from being present in court to report the forthcoming trial against the two men, known only as AB and CD.
The unprecedented secrecy has been imposed on the proceedings after the Crown Prosecution Service obtained legal orders to withhold the names of the defendants and allow the trial to take place in private on the grounds, they said, of national security.
At the court of appeal in London, Anthony Hudson, representing the Guardian and several other media organisations, challenged the orders, which will allow a secret criminal trial to take place for the first time in legal history.
He was appealing under section 159 of the Criminal Justice Act 1988 against orders made by Mr Justice Nicol.
http://www.theguardian.com/law/2014/jun/04/major-terrorism-trial-secret-first-time-legal-history
Wishful thinking from Mike I am afraid.
The interest will be how the Labour vote holds up, and how many former liberals head their way. I think that will tell us more about next years election.
"Re public opinion, as you Kippers love to point out that the Lab/Lib/Con parties are the same, must be galling that more people voted for them than UKIP."
I've seen some stupid statements in my time, but that above by TSE takes the biscuit for absolute cheek topped by a venom that only bewildered Tories can supply.
http://www.nottinghampost.com/Newark-election-Liberal-Democrats/story-21165880-detail/story.html
To be fair I am not a typical ukip supporter im not patriotic, i dont ghink british is best, I haven't had a bad experience because of immigration, I don't hate multiculture, and I'm not fussed about gay people either. What I am is able to empathise with people that do have these concerns rather than write them off as bigots, stupid or unworthy as the other three parties have
Add in UKIP's fall in the share of NEV and not winning this, the narrative writes itself.
Is he about to say why? I am curious.
http://www.nottinghampost.com/UKIP-leader-Nigel-Farage-Newark-election-win/story-21170484-detail/story.html
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2639973/My-Peoples-Army-march-First-Farage-aims-Newark-Tories-Labour-heartlands.html
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4077604.ece
Instead of getting aggressively defensive it may be better to look at things a little more soberly.
The fact that there are far greater numbers of UKIP candidates with views that can be charitably and euphemistically described as "unconventional" suggests either an organic defect in the set up of the party or being charitable a monumental lack of vetting and due diligence. You can't select idiots and not expect opponents to notice and use that, often aggressively.
Your second contention is around performance reporting. In the local elections the NEVS was lower this than last, that is indisputable. We can argue over the difficulty in getting an accurate NEVS for a newish party but it doesn't bear much scrutiny to suggest that the figure was overstated last and understated this. In all likelihood UKIP did less well this year.
Euros the results whilst in line in terms of position with expectation, you won well done, did leave something to be desired in some respects. The margin wasn't vast when expectation fed by certain polling was that UKIP would be relatively further ahead. Of course it is arguable whether that was bad polling or the campaign pegging UKIP back. But finishing so right with the other two was less than many expected.
Finally Newark, some valid points are being made that second place is going to look somewhat like stalling. It may not be entirely fair in relation to past performance in this seat but context in politics counts. The context is the euros which saw a breakthrough of sorts, a second place will be viewed unfavourably against that. I'm also afraid that if you are behind by any great distance then it's going to be reported all the worse.
There are no rules in politics, no fair play, it's for thick skinned people only. Not liking an analysis doesn't necessarily diminish it's validity.
You haven't provided any evidence at all that the people the UK is training in Syria are the same ones that have conducted terrorist attacks. Your whole argument is about as sensible as Saddam causing 9/11, just because he's also a Muslim from the same part of the world Al-Nusra have been the psychopaths in the conflict, and they've been killing FSA troops, who are the ones we're backing.
As I hope most people will recognise I don't go in for the expectations management game. I think it is stupid and pointless as most people see through it easily. I have always said that whilst I expect UKIP to poll in double figures at the GE I would be very pleased to see them get a couple of seats. I do not think it is reasonable to expect them to do better than that in seat numbers.
What I find annoying is Mike's frankly transparent attempt to portray a result which has been obvious for weeks or even months as something surprising or problematic for UKIP. Whilst I think they could have chosen a better candidate I still don't believe for a second that would have made any difference to the basic result of a Tory win. Mike trying to spin it in any other way just exposes his own anti-UKIP bias.
Vince Cable has failed to declare expensive polling of his constituency provided privately by his friend Lord Oakeshott. Surveys carried out by ICM and funded by the wealthy peer were a cornerstone of an abortive coup attempt against Nick Clegg — but haven’t yet appeared on the relevant parliamentary register.
Along with a survey of his PPS Tessa Munt’s constituency in Somerset, the financial value of the 500-person polls would come to at least £8,000 and is well above the threshold for declaration on the Register of Members’ Financial Interests.
http://politicalscrapbook.net/2014/06/vince-cable-and-tessa-munt-have-failed-to-declare-8000-in-private-polling/
I'm sure I saw him trying to rush Farage out of an uncomfortable interview the other day. Perhaps it was a mirage?
For context Newark is a town of around 30,000 which is in the process of increasing in population by 50% over the next decade. The A&E at the local hospital has been downgraded so it will no longer accept children or people with chest or stomach conditions or strokes. These people are now taken to Kings Mill at Sutton in Ashfield which even blue lighting is a good 30 minutes away along country lanes.
Not only does this mean that those who are refused at Newark now have to wait much longer before getting treatment it also means that the ambulances available in Newark are now tied up for much longer taking people on hour long round trips to A&E.
There have now been at least two cases reported in the paper where people have died as a result of this change. No one seems to be listening and a fast growing town is seeing more of its services being removed.
I have a personal interest having had an issue due to the closer of the maternity department. When my son was born there was a large number of deliveries that night at Nottingham City where my son was due to be born. They delayed and delayed allowing the ambulance to bring my wife in and eventually it was left to late and we had to go to the A&E at Newark where my son was born without a midwife or doctor present. All was fine but of course we were not overly impressed with the overall management (although the medical people were fab.)
More people will die as a result of the current setup in medical services Newark and it is a shame that none of the big four parties really seem to have picked up on the local anger
It's worth being honest in discussion, if ukip had not won the euros I would have been the first to say I was disappointed and the result was disappointing.
If mike was an idiot I would let his ukip bias go, but he obviously isn't and so its worth pointing out
Lloyd Embley @Mirror_Editor 45s
Farage tells conference in Malta he doesn't want to live in a country with two languages - a country like, er, Malta
1. UKIP wins;1st non-ConLab victory for over 100 years.
2. LibDem drubbing; In a European election by PR.
3. UKIP taking votes off Labour at the locals.
4. UKIP winning a seat in Scotland or SNP/Salmond a laughing stock.
5. Labour just manging to finish 2nd as the Official Opposition in the Euros.
6. Tories finish 3rd for 1st time ever.
Now, you may query my order, but it doesn't huge political skill to keep the 6th rated story out of the media.
One of the biggest problem for the SDP/Alliance and the Lib Dems winning seats at Westminster was the voters told pollsters, that voting for them was a wasted vote so they didn't vote for them.
If UKIP keep on getting nothing but impressive second places, then the same problem will arise for them..
Free movement is good for Britain,based on evidence,something in short supply in Ukip.
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/hugo-dixon/free-movement-britain_b_5436803.html
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100274828/queens-speech-labour-mps-are-now-just-giving-up-on-ed-miliband/
Considering he probably had this ready to go at 9am this morning, not sure why it's taken so long to post it up.
I can already hear some of you say, “but the opinion polls show confidence in the police hasn’t changed.” And that is indeed true. The opinion polls show consistently that about two thirds of the public trust the police to tell the truth. But that is no reason to rest on our laurels, because we should never accept a situation in which a third of people do not trust police officers to tell the truth.
And for different communities, the numbers can get very worrying indeed. According to one survey carried out recently only 42% of black people from a Caribbean background trust the police. That is simply not sustainable. Change is therefore required.
https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/home-secretarys-police-federation-2014-speech
http://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2014/jun/04/polticians-pull-pints-al-murray-pub-landlord?CMP=twt_gu
MISSISSIPPI 2014 REPUBLICAN PRIMARY for US SENATE
Long-term (very) incumbent establishmentarian US Senator Thad Cochran versus teaparty challenger Chris McDaniel. Until three weeks ago McDaniel was leading polls against much older (and not much to show for it) Cochrane. Until blogger connected with teapartiers connected with McD campaign declded to celebrate Easter by visiting Sen Cochran wife, who suffers from dementia in her nursing home, photographing her and posting pixs on blog. To "illustrate" totally-unproven claim that Sen was having affair with one of his aids - total BS.
Upshot was 1. alleged perps arrested & charged with elder abuse, conspiracy, etc.; and 2) Cochran went up in the polls and McDaniel when down. Also raised profile of the race, which ordinarily would boost turnout but the disgusting nature of what was done to Mrs Cochran may also have convinced some potential voters to stay away from the mudpit that is Miss.GOP politics
Set stage for last night's / today's photo finish. WIth a few handfulls of votes here and there yet to be counted, McDaniels is leading Cochran by about 1,700 votes statewide:
Chris McDaniel 49.5%
Thad Cochran 48.9%
Thomas Carey 1.5%
IF the above numbers hold AND McDaniels remains below 50% plus one, THEN the result of the primary is a RUNOFF in three weeks between McDaniels and Cochran.
MISSISSIPPI 4th CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT 2014 REPUBLICAN PRIMARY
This is sourthernmost district in the state, runs from Biloxi and Gulf Coast (aka Redneck Riviera) inland to Hattiesburg and piney woods. Pitted current Republican US Rep Steven Palazzo against former Democratic congressman Gene Taylor, the guy Palazzo beat to get into Congress in the first place. Taylor was a different kind of Democraty, famously refused to vote for Nancy Pelosi for Speaker (and maybe alienated the small local Italian community?)
Result of last nights primary have incumbent Palazzo just above 50% by about 500 votes. HOWEVER in 13 precincts in Harrison County (Biloxi) local Republicans (under state law responsible for primary voting materials for their primary) provided the wrong voting machines or something. Meaning that as-yet unknown number of ballots were NOT counted last night, in county that Taylor won approx 65% of the vote.
So this morning, local voting & party officials in Harrison Co were try8ing to sort it out. Check out live blog by Biloxi Sun newspaper. Latest word was that looks like there are NOT enough ballots left to drive Palazzo's percentage below 50% thus forcing a runoff in this race.
Cheers,
Sea Shanty Irish
I agree though about transport and capacity though, if units are closing there obviously needs to be upgrading elsewhere. Sherwood Forest hospitals is a disaster from the management point of view. It would be better to be part of either Nottingham or Lincoln Trust, and of these Nottingham would be the viable one.
Thanks for your reply (I really am getting on a train now and won't be able to reply for a bit)
You talk about Mike's UKIP bias as you perceive it. I would counsel you to heed Matthew 7:3.
We've seen safe seats fall at by-elections several times before. Indeed most significant parties we've seen emerge have won such seats early on in their progression.
That's not to say UKIP have to win or they're finished, but expecting them to pull off a by-election win is to expect them to do well as other parties have done while emerging.
In short, to claim the expectations as unreasonable is to ignore all the comparable precedents.