[The facts in the form of government stats show the economy is in recovery. The perception in the form of the money people actually have and how they spend it or not show that the economy isn't in recovery.
Funnily enough lecturing people that although they aren't better off they actually are tends to make them angry.....]
I must say - I like this.
Its an amalgamation of real people thoughts (as I understand them to be) with that of the labour political class.
Unfortunately for you-
While you whine about your middle class female partner not being able to work-
You (Blair/Brownites) initiated the whole concept of working with kids for single mothers for X (BIG X) per week to a whole generation of WWC.
They'll still vote for you, mostly.
You just Confuse the rest of us. Nobody likes being confused.
So I'm glad we have a politician prepared to make the case for immigration and not pander to stereotypes.
I'm not often outright stunned, but I remained shocked at how far out people are with their predictions on those. How can they be so far out? I wouldn't expect most people to be the sorts of boring farts like many of us here who might have looked up such percentages, but it's not even close most of the time (in fairness, I would have been almost as far out on the single parents guess)
Perceptions matter more than facts.
re about eastern europeans in large numbers more than any other groups.
Look at the media.
When was the last time you saw a tabloid front page story that was say positive about immigrants, single mothers, the EU or Muslims?
Now, I'm sure we won't have to go back far to find negative front pages about the above?
Certainly not, and it is of course the media effect, but do a lot of negative stories really make people think there are 4x more Muslims in the country than is the case? Well, clearly it does, but that still surprised me. I just assumed it would feed and enhance people's negative opinions of the groups in question, and lead to a certain bump in expected numbers in the UK, but not an explosion in those numbers. Clearly, I am far too naiive. Or as I live in what is the whitest region of England, I imagine my day to day perception of the actual proportions are simply closer to the reality than some others regardless of what the media implies.
UKIP source: "I can say without any fear this is rubbish. This is absolutely abhorrent behaviour by a tabloid on polling day."
How funny. Nigel's having a lovely time in the Med, whilst the Haus Frau is up until midnight, 'answering his emails'. Something's going to snap, and Mr Farage is going to have a problem.
So I'm glad we have a politician prepared to make the case for immigration and not pander to stereotypes.
I')
Perceptions matter more than facts.
re about eastern europeans in large numbers more than any other groups.
Look at the media.
When was the last time you saw a tabloid front page story that was say positive about immigrants, single mothers, the EU or Muslims?
Now, I'm sure we won't have to go back far to find negative front pages about the above?
Certainly not, and it is of course the media effect, but do a lot of negative stories really make people think there are 4x more Muslims in the country than is the case? Well, clearly it does, but that still surprised me. I just assumed it would feed and enhance people's negative opinions of the groups in question, and lead to a certain bump in expected numbers in the UK, but not an explosion in those numbers. Clearly, I am far too naiive. Or as I live in what is the whitest region of England, I imagine my day to day perception of the actual proportions are simply closer to the reality than some others regardless of what the media implies.
A few years ago, there was an analysis of where the BNP were picking up support.
It wasn't in racially diverse areas, but in the areas near to them.
The theory was, any negative stories became amplified near by and that's how the BNP did well.
'Exclusive: How private firms make quick killing from PFI - UK ... www.independent.co.uk › News › UK › UK Politics
A classic example of how UKIP have risen. Tories launch PFI, criticised by Labour. Labour take power, increase it, criticised by the Tories. Tories take power, increase it, criticised by Labour.
One policy inviolate. Two parties who criticise it in opposition and propagate it in office. Don't like PFI? You're screwed..... At least until the kippers say you can break the duopoly.
The Tories attempted to appeal to Labour and Lib Dem supporters last night, asking them to “lend your vote to the Conservatives” to keep out Ukip.
A letter to residents listed a series of allegedly racist and homophobic remarks made by Ukip councillors and candidates and warned voters that the party merely wanted to “use” the seat to get a foothold in parliament.
I'm not sure what this byelection tells us about the Tory machine nationwide. Take Eastleigh. The Lib Dems threw everything they had at that byelection because they knew it was absolutely vital that they won. It is the same for the Tories in Newark. But the Lib Dems still did very badly in the elections this year and it is clear that their campaigning capability and organisation has decayed significantly in certain parts of the country. A nationwide election will show up those weaknesses in local organisation in a way that a byelection won't.
I agree that the next election is going to be a huge fight though!
This is true, I guess the proof will be next year but I see signs of hope.
The Tories attempted to appeal to Labour and Lib Dem supporters last night, asking them to “lend your vote to the Conservatives” to keep out Ukip.
A letter to residents listed a series of allegedly racist and homophobic remarks made by Ukip councillors and candidates and warned voters that the party merely wanted to “use” the seat to get a foothold in parliament.
'Exclusive: How private firms make quick killing from PFI - UK ... www.independent.co.uk › News › UK › UK Politics
A classic example of how UKIP have risen. Tories launch PFI, criticised by Labour. Labour take power, increase it, criticised by the Tories. Tories take power, increase it, criticised by Labour.
One policy inviolate. Two parties who criticise it in opposition and propagate it in office. Don't like PFI? You're screwed..... At least until the kippers say you can break the duopoly.
Rochdale! You are now taking the piss in your naivety.
You're going to vote labour - therefore you are not allowed to crisis PFI.
Yeah - It's all Balaance Sheet Vs Non-Balance Sheet - Exactly the thing you say you're not interested in!!!!
Leave the paper entry analysis to those who have A/Higher level eduation.
The Tories attempted to appeal to Labour and Lib Dem supporters last night, asking them to “lend your vote to the Conservatives” to keep out Ukip.
A letter to residents listed a series of allegedly racist and homophobic remarks made by Ukip councillors and candidates and warned voters that the party merely wanted to “use” the seat to get a foothold in parliament.
Now that is interesting. This has the potential to backfire if Labour and Lib Dem supporters want to give the Conservatives a bloody nose. Clearly the calculation is that more supporters of those parties are more antipathetic towards UKIP.
Kieran Indeed, having run against Obama before on a centrist platform in 2008 she can keep her distance from him and unlike McCain in 2008 she has not attached herself to the most unpopular policies of the administration either. Negative ads won't work against Hillary, for starters she is likely to be the most well funded candidate in history and can easily more than match any negative ads with ones of her own, she is also a polarising figure and one of the most well known in American, love her or hate her you will already have made up your mind. I would also agree the circumstances of 2016 will be nowhere near as bad for her as they were in 2008 for Clinton or indeed 1968 for Humphrey or 1976 for Ford. She is also helped by the fact that she is a centrist succeeding a liberal, as Bush Snr was a centrist succeeding a conservative, Gore was a liberal succeeding a moderate, Nixon a conservative succeeding a moderate,
The Tories attempted to appeal to Labour and Lib Dem supporters last night, asking them to “lend your vote to the Conservatives” to keep out Ukip.
A letter to residents listed a series of allegedly racist and homophobic remarks made by Ukip councillors and candidates and warned voters that the party merely wanted to “use” the seat to get a foothold in parliament.
Now that is interesting. This has the potential to backfire if Labour and Lib Dem supporters want to give the Conservatives a bloody nose. Clearly the calculation is that more supporters of those parties are more antipathetic towards UKIP.
It is.
I think it is the situation we've seen on PB from our left leaning friends.
IIRC neither SouthamObserver or Bobbafett would vote for Helmer because of his views on gays and rape etc, but the likes of Surbiton would vote for Helmer to give the Tories a bloody nose.
If Robert Jenrick owns two houses in London and a mansion near Newark as a result of his own efforts I'd be extremely impressed. But somehow, at the age of 32, it seems a bit unlikely. But apologies if I'm wrong.
Jean-Claude Juncker is “waiting for a phone call” from David Cameron after declaring that Britain has all but failed to stop him becoming president of the European Commission.
The former Luxembourg prime minister is attempting to open negotiations with Mr Cameron, claiming that he is prepared to offer a “fair deal” for Britain. He has already ruled out changes to the four founding principles of the European Union, including freedom of movement, which will infuriate Tory eurosceptics.
Jean-Claude Juncker is “waiting for a phone call” from David Cameron after declaring that Britain has all but failed to stop him becoming president of the European Commission.
The former Luxembourg prime minister is attempting to open negotiations with Mr Cameron, claiming that he is prepared to offer a “fair deal” for Britain. He has already ruled out changes to the four founding principles of the European Union, including freedom of movement, which will infuriate Tory eurosceptics.
Acting the magnanimous emperor of Europe already then.
TSE With the PMs of Italy, Denmark, the Netherlands, Sweden and the UK against him and Hollande less than enthusiastic I don't think Juncker can declare anything
Jean-Claude Juncker is “waiting for a phone call” from David Cameron after declaring that Britain has all but failed to stop him becoming president of the European Commission.
The former Luxembourg prime minister is attempting to open negotiations with Mr Cameron, claiming that he is prepared to offer a “fair deal” for Britain. He has already ruled out changes to the four founding principles of the European Union, including freedom of movement, which will infuriate Tory eurosceptics.
If Robert Jenrick owns two houses in London and a mansion near Newark as a result of his own efforts I'd be extremely impressed. But somehow, at the age of 32, it seems a bit unlikely. But apologies if I'm wrong.
He says, about his property portfolio
"I was lucky, I had a great family background, access to a good education, and my wife and I have worked hard and been successful."
Me: I was lucky, and fortunate, I left university in 2000, got a job in London, my parents and grandmother, thanks to their own years of hard work and savings, gave me the money/took out a mortgage to buy a house in London, rather than let me rent.
I sold the place in 2007, and moved oop North, where I got a better, larger property for about half the cost of the house I sold in London.
Had I been born 5 to 10 years later, I wouldn't have been so lucky.
TSE With the PMs of Italy, Denmark, the Netherlands, Sweden and the UK against him and Hollande less than enthusiastic I don't think Juncker can declare anything
He can declare whatever he likes, it just doesn't necessarily make it true
TSE With the PMs of Italy, Denmark, the Netherlands, Sweden and the UK against him and Hollande less than enthusiastic I don't think Juncker can declare anything
Yeah, but national leaders are so yesterday's news, who cares about them. These days it's Heads of International Bureucracies that are all the rage. Ok, national leaders still play an inconvenient role, but that can be pretty much ignored I think.
The Tories attempted to appeal to Labour and Lib Dem supporters last night, asking them to “lend your vote to the Conservatives” to keep out Ukip.
A letter to residents listed a series of allegedly racist and homophobic remarks made by Ukip councillors and candidates and warned voters that the party merely wanted to “use” the seat to get a foothold in parliament.
Now that is interesting. This has the potential to backfire if Labour and Lib Dem supporters want to give the Conservatives a bloody nose. Clearly the calculation is that more supporters of those parties are more antipathetic towards UKIP.
It is.
I think it is the situation we've seen on PB from our left leaning friends.
IIRC neither SouthamObserver or Bobbafett would vote for Helmer because of his views on gays and rape etc, but the likes of Surbiton would vote for Helmer to give the Tories a bloody nose.
Proper lefties would vote for neither and support Labour in the distant hope that the right splits to let us through the middle. An outside bet but its happened in interesting places in local government including Witney.
TSE With the PMs of Italy, Denmark, the Netherlands, Sweden and the UK against him and Hollande less than enthusiastic I don't think Juncker can declare anything
Always declare victory first, then work from there.
If Robert Jenrick owns two houses in London and a mansion near Newark as a result of his own efforts I'd be extremely impressed. But somehow, at the age of 32, it seems a bit unlikely. But apologies if I'm wrong.
He says, about his property portfolio
"I was lucky, I had a great family background, access to a good education, and my wife and I have worked hard and been successful."
Me: I was lucky, and fortunate, I left university in 2000, got a job in London, my parents and grandmother, thanks to their own years of hard work and savings, gave me the money/took out a mortgage to buy a house in London, rather than let me rent.
I sold the place in 2007, and moved oop North, where I got a better, larger property for about half the cost of the house I sold in London.
Had I been born 5 to 10 years later, I wouldn't have been so lucky.
Yeah yeah yeah - What's the obsession with the mortgages???
It's unhealthy. I feel. Anway - 7 days till the world cup
If Robert Jenrick owns two houses in London and a mansion near Newark as a result of his own efforts I'd be extremely impressed. But somehow, at the age of 32, it seems a bit unlikely. But apologies if I'm wrong.
He says, about his property portfolio
"I was lucky, I had a great family background, access to a good education, and my wife and I have worked hard and been successful."
Me: I was lucky, and fortunate, I left university in 2000, got a job in London, my parents and grandmother, thanks to their own years of hard work and savings, gave me the money/took out a mortgage to buy a house in London, rather than let me rent.
I sold the place in 2007, and moved oop North, where I got a better, larger property for about half the cost of the house I sold in London.
Had I been born 5 to 10 years later, I wouldn't have been so lucky.
Yeah yeah yeah - What's the obsession with the mortgages???
It's unhealthy. I feel. Anway - 7 days till the world cup
What's the latest times matches kick off? I know Brazil is several hours behind just want to know which days I'm likely to not get much sleep.
The Tories attempted to appeal to Labour and Lib Dem supporters last night, asking them to “lend your vote to the Conservatives” to keep out Ukip.
A letter to residents listed a series of allegedly racist and homophobic remarks made by Ukip councillors and candidates and warned voters that the party merely wanted to “use” the seat to get a foothold in parliament.
Now that is interesting. This has the potential to backfire if Labour and Lib Dem supporters want to give the Conservatives a bloody nose. Clearly the calculation is that more supporters of those parties are more antipathetic towards UKIP.
It is.
I think it is the situation we've seen on PB from our left leaning friends.
IIRC neither SouthamObserver or Bobbafett would vote for Helmer because of his views on gays and rape etc, but the likes of Surbiton would vote for Helmer to give the Tories a bloody nose.
Proper lefties would vote for neither and support Labour in the distant hope that the right splits to let us through the middle. An outside bet but its happened in interesting places in local government including Witney.
I admire you Pioneers. Unfortunately we've got Catholics and now Muslims to deal with. You're not helping.
Jean-Claude Juncker is “waiting for a phone call” from David Cameron after declaring that Britain has all but failed to stop him becoming president of the European Commission.
The former Luxembourg prime minister is attempting to open negotiations with Mr Cameron, claiming that he is prepared to offer a “fair deal” for Britain. He has already ruled out changes to the four founding principles of the European Union, including freedom of movement, which will infuriate Tory eurosceptics.
Acting the magnanimous emperor of Europe already then.
If Robert Jenrick owns two houses in London and a mansion near Newark as a result of his own efforts I'd be extremely impressed. But somehow, at the age of 32, it seems a bit unlikely. But apologies if I'm wrong.
He says, about his property portfolio
"I was lucky, I had a great family background, access to a good education, and my wife and I have worked hard and been successful."
Me: I was lucky, and fortunate, I left university in 2000, got a job in London, my parents and grandmother, thanks to their own years of hard work and savings, gave me the money/took out a mortgage to buy a house in London, rather than let me rent.
I sold the place in 2007, and moved oop North, where I got a better, larger property for about half the cost of the house I sold in London.
Had I been born 5 to 10 years later, I wouldn't have been so lucky.
Yeah yeah yeah - What's the obsession with the mortgages???
It's unhealthy. I feel. Anway - 7 days till the world cup
What's the latest times matches kick off? I know Brazil is several hours behind just want to know which days I'm likely to not get much sleep.
Well they had to make sure the pubs are open.... so... 11 or 12? Fairly sure it's 12ish.
To say I was getting excited months ago would be an understanment.
Kle4 But it is still national heads who appoint the international bureaucrats and indeed Christine Lagarde could well swap one international bureaucracy for another
Corporeal In this case I think Juncker displaying a haughty disdain for his electorate before the deal is done may have sealed his fate
Kle4 But it is still national heads who appoint the international bureaucrats and indeed Christine Lagarde could well swap one international bureaucracy for another
I confess I was attempting to embody the mind of an international bureucrat with that bit, not my own view. National heads appointing the Commission head is one inconvenience of them that they probably want to get rid of (without actually letting the people choose either)
Jean-Claude Juncker is “waiting for a phone call” from David Cameron after declaring that Britain has all but failed to stop him becoming president of the European Commission.
The former Luxembourg prime minister is attempting to open negotiations with Mr Cameron, claiming that he is prepared to offer a “fair deal” for Britain. He has already ruled out changes to the four founding principles of the European Union, including freedom of movement, which will infuriate Tory eurosceptics.
Acting the magnanimous emperor of Europe already then.
If Robert Jenrick owns two houses in London and a mansion near Newark as a result of his own efforts I'd be extremely impressed. But somehow, at the age of 32, it seems a bit unlikely. But apologies if I'm wrong.
Andy
Michal Berkner, Jenrick's wife, is a Mergers & Aquisitions solicitor and partner of the London Branch of the New York based legal firm of Skadden. She is eight years older than her husband and has been with Skadden for near on twenty five years, moving to London in 2001.
She states her major work accomplishment as follows:
Proudest professional moment?
Leading the Skadden team representing the consortium of Alfa-Access-Renova (AAR) on the $56bn (£36.5bn) sale of the TNK-BP joint venture to Russian state-owned oil company Rosneft. This was the largest M&A transaction in the world in 2012 – indeed, the largest for more than three years – but the deal was fraught with practical difficulties and political controversy.
Just the bonus from that deal alone would have enabled her to buy her Ludlow Grade I listed country house. I am not up to date on current salaries for M&A Partners at city solicitors firms but I would be very surprised if they were under seven figures a year with bonuses and a partner's share of profits (if she is an equity partner).
So that is her flat in London and the country house accounted for. I doubt Robert Jenrick will be earning anything like the amount his wife does, even as a senior manager at Christies. But it is still likely to be around or just above six figures a year. In other words, enough with help on a deposit from his family to buy a small central London flat.
Any or all of their properties are likely to be mortgaged, so their equity in the properties is quite probably much lower than the full property value. I would also guess the second London flat was rented out after they married.
@AveryLP If the wife is only 8 years older that makes her 40 I'm not sure she'd have been practicing her profession as a 15 year old. Somewhere one of your numbers is wrong.
@AveryLP If the wife is only 8 years older that makes her 40 I'm not sure she'd have been practicing her profession as a 15 year old. Somewhere one of your numbers is wrong.
The only source I had was that she was at a NYC Law School in 1988 and joined Skadden immediately after graduation. I assumed that was 1990, so it may be a couple of years below 25 years.
The 8 year difference in age is from the Mail article. I guess that is the dubious figure.
While off for the night, I cannot help but note the headline regarding Ed M's response to the Queen's speech is 'Coalition: more of the same', which I had thought was also the Coalition's pitch to voters. That is it's Labour: Coalition is offering same bad stuff. Tories: Coalition is offering the same good, steady hand*. They could save money and use the same poster design, just in appropriate party colours.
*Im imagine the others are picthing: LDs: Look, we're sorry ok, now can you start voting for us again please?! UKIP: LibLabCon. You need more than that? Green: We're here too, you know.
I've decided to watch this complainers programme. I suspect my sympathies will be with the call handlers (since they usually get trapped in the middle).
Does it matter how many properties the Tory candidate may or may not own? Will that be the decisive issue that pushes people into UKIP or brings them "back home"?
@AveryLP If the wife is only 8 years older that makes her 40 I'm not sure she'd have been practicing her profession as a 15 year old. Somewhere one of your numbers is wrong.
The only source I had was that she was at a NYC Law School in 1988 and joined Skadden immediately after graduation. I assumed that was 1990, so it may be a couple of years below 25 years.
The 8 year difference in age is from the Mail article. I guess that is the dubious figure.
She graduated in 1994, so guessing a birth year of 1972-3 working the appropriate number of years back. If he's 32 that would imply a birth year of 1981-2 depending on how 32 he is. So it all adds up.
While off for the night, I cannot help but note the headline regarding Ed M's response to the Queen's speech is 'Coalition: more of the same', which I had thought was also the Coalition's pitch to voters. They could save money and use the same poster design, just in appropriate party colours.
Good night kle - I hope you don't bother to read this because my words are worthless.
However-
You are correct.
Coalition: More of the Same - is exactly the right message to send.
Me (coalitionistas) give society more money, more productivity and more column inches than anyone could ever hope for.
And what's more - we predict your Distain. From far far away.
Let the blonde labour girl slip in her star wars references while the tru boy and girl fans try and sort out this mess.
While off for the night, I cannot help but note the headline regarding Ed M's response to the Queen's speech is 'Coalition: more of the same', which I had thought was also the Coalition's pitch to voters. They could save money and use the same poster design, just in appropriate party colours.
Good night kle - I hope you don't bother to read this because my words are worthless.
That's a shame, as I had to keep my computer on for a few more minutes to download an update, but for the record I probably qualify as a coalitionista - I voted LD in 2010 but wanted a LD/CON coalition, and I prefer the idea of a coalition in general, even in practice can be disappointing. Perhaps a former coalitionista.
Does it matter how many properties the Tory candidate may or may not own? Will that be the decisive issue that pushes people into UKIP or brings them "back home"?
Bob Worcester's "look at the share, not the lead" mantra didn't really work out in 2005 and 2010. Labour won a majority with 36% in 2005 and the Tories fell well short in 2010 with 37%.
The Conservatives need a lead, Labour needs a certain share.
I'm getting sick of this I'm anti UKIP crap. Read what I've been saying.
My big thing this week has been an argument with Lord Ashcroft over his polling methodology that I believe understates UKIP. I've gone out on a limb to make these points and if I'm wrong tomorrow night I'll be eating humble pie.
I've also reminded everybody about how UKIP has been understated in every by-election poll since GE10.
This hardly represents a bias against UKIP.
So the unthinking crap on this and other thread is not based on reality. Get a life.
Well, take a look at your site's header. I don't see any purple and yellow rosette.
I'm getting sick of this I'm anti UKIP crap. Read what I've been saying.
My big thing this week has been an argument with Lord Ashcroft over his polling methodology that I believe understates UKIP. I've gone out on a limb to make these points and if I'm wrong tomorrow night I'll be eating humble pie.
I've also reminded everybody about how UKIP has been understated in every by-election poll since GE10.
This hardly represents a bias against UKIP.
So the unthinking crap on this and other thread is not based on reality. Get a life.
Mike - If Lord Ashcroft is underestimating UKIP then what on God's Green earth are Populus doing.
I accept some weighting is probably neccesary (Labour voters don't get out of bed for one ^_~) but the Populus UKIP weighting is quite staggering. Its in this graph:
As promised (I was trying my hardest and getting bored - I assumed Tim M was too passé)-
Blow For Obama As Prisoner-Swap Backlash Grows
President Obama faced fresh embarrassment last night over his prisoner swap with the Taliban as the home town of Sergeant Bowe Bergdahl cancelled a celebration to mark his freedom amid a national uproar over the circumstances of his capture and release.
Council leaders in Hailey, Idaho, said that the town, population 8,000, lacked the resources to host a homecoming event, planned for June 28, which they feared would be swamped by protesters.
Many Americans believe that Sergeant Bergdahl was a deserter who voluntarily left his post in Afghanistan, costing US lives. “In the interest of public safety, the event will be cancelled,” the council said.
That's almost certainly an unweighted sample. It's almost certainly an unweightable sample because I doubt they've asked more than the voting intention. It's interesting in as far as it backs up the nature of the fight but we can't really read anything more into it.
The key thing is of course - is their sample random.
Even if it is, the other polls that have been taken suggest that the Conservative share must almost by definition be on the low end of their confidence interval
So
32.1 Con
28.9 UKIP
is perfectly possible and not an outlier.
Of course that doesn't square with Ashcroft, or Survation. Neither of which square with each other.
The Conservative vote share will show us which pollster was correct, all the other tallies are fairly similiar.
If they've been asking people in Newark proper then that might be the reason for their numbers. But I have no idea.
That's almost certainly an unweighted sample. It's almost certainly an unweightable sample because I doubt they've asked more than the voting intention. It's interesting in as far as it backs up the nature of the fight but we can't really read anything more into it.
A truly unweighted sample is fine providing you can get a truly random sample of voters. Getting a properly random sample is tough though.
Also remarkable that of 2100 voters asked they got 0 don't know/refused. The inference must be that they asked far more than 2100 voters - a pretty mammoth task !
The numbers are also a bit too round to 30, 31% etc...
Also remarkable that of 2100 voters asked they got 0 don't know/refused. The inference must be that they asked far more than 2100 voters - a pretty mammoth task !
The numbers are also a bit too round to 30, 31% etc...
I think the DK/refused are in the 11% of other. However someone (TSE?, OGH?)has to contact Loughborough University tommorow morning and ask them about this shifty poll before people start betting money on it. I don't like it when there is a chance that people might lose a fortune because someone is publicly releasing opinion polls that might not even exist.
@Pulpstar I'm not an expert but I would hazard that truly random sampling in respect of a specific constituency might not be ideal anyway because you'd want to account for different demographics which wouldn't follow a standard distribution pattern necessarily. I'm not saying this poll/survey has no merit I just think there's a limit to the value. We don't even know the structure of the question asked or anything about the time period of responses.
Also remarkable that of 2100 voters asked they got 0 don't know/refused. The inference must be that they asked far more than 2100 voters - a pretty mammoth task !
The numbers are also a bit too round to 30, 31% etc...
All 4 parties and others all have vote numbers that round exactly to whole percentage numbers.
ie The 5 vote numbers all had to be a factor of 21.
Can't be bothered to think how to calculate the chances of that but the odds of it must be absolutely miniscule - probably something like one in 100,000 or one in a million.
Also remarkable that of 2100 voters asked they got 0 don't know/refused. The inference must be that they asked far more than 2100 voters - a pretty mammoth task !
The numbers are also a bit too round to 30, 31% etc...
All 4 parties and others all have numbers that round exactly to whole percentage numbers.
ie 5 numbers all had to be a factor of 21.
Can't be bothered to think how to calculate the chances of that but the odds of it must be absolutely miniscule - probably something like one in 100,000 or one in a million.
Or they back-calculated the number of voters from the percentages for that table? Whoever "they" are...
TSE With the PMs of Italy, Denmark, the Netherlands, Sweden and the UK against him and Hollande less than enthusiastic I don't think Juncker can declare anything
Don't think the Danish PM is against him - she's expressed herself completely neutrally to the Danish press.
Another Danish news item of interest - Dan Hannan has successfully persuaded the far-right Danish People's Party to switch from the nationalist EFP (where they sit with UKIP) to the Tory EPP. It's said (source: Danish Conservative newspaper Berlingske Tidende) that Cameron is not pleased, because the Tories have previously attacked UKIP over linking with the DFP. Tactically it's a coup for the EPP as it makes it more likely that they'll get full faction status (more money and seats on committees). Strategically it's going to be a bit awkward.
Also remarkable that of 2100 voters asked they got 0 don't know/refused. The inference must be that they asked far more than 2100 voters - a pretty mammoth task !
The numbers are also a bit too round to 30, 31% etc...
I think the DK/refused are in the 11% of other. However someone (TSE?, OGH?)has to contact Loughborough University tommorow morning and ask them about this shifty poll before people start betting money on it. I don't like it when there is a chance that people might lose a fortune because someone is publicly releasing opinion polls that might not even exist.
Here's the thing that really puzzles me.
Why does the tweeter quoted call it Guido's poll?
Where is this coming from, alli I can find is some UKIP members tweeting about it?
The more you delve into this "poll" the more something doesn't feel altogether kosher. The numbers and percentages just work too exactly. I think the first thing that needs to be ascertained is if Loughborough or anyone associated with it have even done any sort of survey into Newark. I fear this could be a sophisticated attempt to ramp.
Also remarkable that of 2100 voters asked they got 0 don't know/refused. The inference must be that they asked far more than 2100 voters - a pretty mammoth task !
The numbers are also a bit too round to 30, 31% etc...
I think the DK/refused are in the 11% of other. However someone (TSE?, OGH?)has to contact Loughborough University tommorow morning and ask them about this shifty poll before people start betting money on it. I don't like it when there is a chance that people might lose a fortune because someone is publicly releasing opinion polls that might not even exist.
Here's the thing that really puzzles me.
Why does the tweeter quoted call it Guido's poll?
Where is this coming from, alli I can find is some UKIP members tweeting about it?
I've been doing some googling and can find nothing about this other than the link above and aggregation sources to the same.
This tosh about it being vital to UKIP is just that. There is a 16k majority and the tories have thrown the kitchen sink at it, anything within 5k will be a massive result for UKIP in an area that has no natural affinity. Get within 5k and watch SE tory MPs with small majorities panic. No lose situation for UKIP, no win for Cameron
Comments
Well worth a watch if you have a few minutes spare, Penny Mordaunt had the House in stitches this afternoon:
http://order-order.com/2014/06/04/watch-penny-mordaunts-loyal-address-in-full/
Funnily enough lecturing people that although they aren't better off they actually are tends to make them angry.....]
I must say - I like this.
Its an amalgamation of real people thoughts (as I understand them to be) with that of the labour political class.
Unfortunately for you-
While you whine about your middle class female partner not being able to work-
You (Blair/Brownites) initiated the whole concept of working with kids for single mothers for X (BIG X) per week to a whole generation of WWC.
They'll still vote for you, mostly.
You just Confuse the rest of us. Nobody likes being confused.
'Exclusive: How private firms make quick killing from PFI - UK ...
www.independent.co.uk › News › UK › UK Politics
It wasn't in racially diverse areas, but in the areas near to them.
The theory was, any negative stories became amplified near by and that's how the BNP did well.
One policy inviolate. Two parties who criticise it in opposition and propagate it in office. Don't like PFI? You're screwed..... At least until the kippers say you can break the duopoly.
The Tories attempted to appeal to Labour and Lib Dem supporters last night, asking them to “lend your vote to the Conservatives” to keep out Ukip.
A letter to residents listed a series of allegedly racist and homophobic remarks made by Ukip councillors and candidates and warned voters that the party merely wanted to “use” the seat to get a foothold in parliament.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/married-nigel-farage-pictured-hand-in-hand-3646619?utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=twitterfeed
You're going to vote labour - therefore you are not allowed to crisis PFI.
Yeah - It's all Balaance Sheet Vs Non-Balance Sheet - Exactly the thing you say you're not interested in!!!!
Leave the paper entry analysis to those who have A/Higher level eduation.
So holding hands with another woman is likely to lead to you sleeping in the spare bedroom for a month.
Though Nigel, I wouldn't use the defence I once used when a then girlfriend accused me of trying to pull another girl, I said to my girlfriend
"Darling, that girl is beautiful, sexy, charming and intelligent, I could never pull a girl like that"
Somehow I managed to retain an even number of testicles.
I think it is the situation we've seen on PB from our left leaning friends.
IIRC neither SouthamObserver or Bobbafett would vote for Helmer because of his views on gays and rape etc, but the likes of Surbiton would vote for Helmer to give the Tories a bloody nose.
Jean-Claude Juncker is “waiting for a phone call” from David Cameron after declaring that Britain has all but failed to stop him becoming president of the European Commission.
The former Luxembourg prime minister is attempting to open negotiations with Mr Cameron, claiming that he is prepared to offer a “fair deal” for Britain. He has already ruled out changes to the four founding principles of the European Union, including freedom of movement, which will infuriate Tory eurosceptics.
But property rights discussions will get me heading to my philosophy books at this time of night and I'm too pissed.
"He was spotted soon afterwards in the hotel bar by a guest from England, who asked him to pose for a photo.
The man said: “I wouldn’t vote UKIP, I just wanted the picture to show my mates. It was 11am and he was absolutely stinking of booze.”
Mr Farage denied claims from industry insiders that he had been paid between £5,000 and £10,000 to attend the three-day conference.
However, he did admit he was there to raise money for his party but refused to say if he was going to keep the fee.
He said: “I have not decided that yet. I might, I might not. I have some very serious medical bills."
Sounds like a night in Sunny Beach.
"I was lucky, I had a great family background, access to a good education, and my wife and I have worked hard and been successful."
Me: I was lucky, and fortunate, I left university in 2000, got a job in London, my parents and grandmother, thanks to their own years of hard work and savings, gave me the money/took out a mortgage to buy a house in London, rather than let me rent.
I sold the place in 2007, and moved oop North, where I got a better, larger property for about half the cost of the house I sold in London.
Had I been born 5 to 10 years later, I wouldn't have been so lucky.
It's unhealthy. I feel. Anway - 7 days till the world cup
To say I was getting excited months ago would be an understanment.
Kle4 But it is still national heads who appoint the international bureaucrats and indeed Christine Lagarde could well swap one international bureaucracy for another
Corporeal In this case I think Juncker displaying a haughty disdain for his electorate before the deal is done may have sealed his fate
Alas I take a similar view on football to The Lord Protector Oliver Cromwell.
But, on this day of all days, we can surely debate till midnight
Michal Berkner, Jenrick's wife, is a Mergers & Aquisitions solicitor and partner of the London Branch of the New York based legal firm of Skadden. She is eight years older than her husband and has been with Skadden for near on twenty five years, moving to London in 2001.
She states her major work accomplishment as follows:
Proudest professional moment?
Leading the Skadden team representing the consortium of Alfa-Access-Renova (AAR) on the $56bn (£36.5bn) sale of the TNK-BP joint venture to Russian state-owned oil company Rosneft. This was the largest M&A transaction in the world in 2012 – indeed, the largest for more than three years – but the deal was fraught with practical difficulties and political controversy.
Just the bonus from that deal alone would have enabled her to buy her Ludlow Grade I listed country house. I am not up to date on current salaries for M&A Partners at city solicitors firms but I would be very surprised if they were under seven figures a year with bonuses and a partner's share of profits (if she is an equity partner).
So that is her flat in London and the country house accounted for. I doubt Robert Jenrick will be earning anything like the amount his wife does, even as a senior manager at Christies. But it is still likely to be around or just above six figures a year. In other words, enough with help on a deposit from his family to buy a small central London flat.
Any or all of their properties are likely to be mortgaged, so their equity in the properties is quite probably much lower than the full property value. I would also guess the second London flat was rented out after they married.
It all seems quite possible to me.
If the wife is only 8 years older that makes her 40 I'm not sure she'd have been practicing her profession as a 15 year old. Somewhere one of your numbers is wrong.
The 8 year difference in age is from the Mail article. I guess that is the dubious figure.
Where to I sign up for these multi-billion oil deal places of work.
Pre-prepared(!) word document [err, CV] ready to be fired up.
*Im imagine the others are picthing:
LDs: Look, we're sorry ok, now can you start voting for us again please?!
UKIP: LibLabCon. You need more than that?
Green: We're here too, you know.
Twitter.com/TimMontgomerie/status/474310700777893889/photo/1
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservative/10875934/Tories-flood-Newark-with-a-thousand-activists-in-last-ditch-push-for-votes.html
However-
You are correct.
Coalition: More of the Same - is exactly the right message to send.
Me (coalitionistas) give society more money, more productivity and more column inches than anyone could ever hope for.
And what's more - we predict your Distain. From far far away.
Let the blonde labour girl slip in her star wars references while the tru boy and girl fans try and sort out this mess.
One Property - One Home - Per Family.
What's wrong with that????
I can only guess that you now all safely in bed and bored.
For the Lurkers - I shall look from behind the paywall and post the best I can find for the next x amount of minutes.
I promise to post at least one snippet pre today programme.
http://politicalbetting.s3.amazonaws.com/header.jpg
I accept some weighting is probably neccesary (Labour voters don't get out of bed for one ^_~) but the Populus UKIP weighting is quite staggering. Its in this graph:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1roY-VuzAUre3K5Tp74sf-sknXmfRPXaIoqtoPc7HMaA/edit#gid=0
Weighted from 21 -> 13% !
As promised (I was trying my hardest and getting bored - I assumed Tim M was too passé)-
Blow For Obama As Prisoner-Swap Backlash Grows
President Obama faced fresh embarrassment last night over his prisoner swap with the Taliban as the home town of Sergeant Bowe Bergdahl cancelled a celebration to mark his freedom amid a national uproar over the circumstances of his capture and release.
Council leaders in Hailey, Idaho, said that the town, population 8,000, lacked the resources to host a homecoming event, planned for June 28, which they feared would be swamped by protesters.
Many Americans believe that Sergeant Bergdahl was a deserter who voluntarily left his post in Afghanistan, costing US lives. “In the interest of public safety, the event will be cancelled,” the council said.
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/world/americas/article4109584.ece
Grant French @SteelvalleyUKIP · 13m
Guido's poll has UKIP 33%, Cons 31%. Reasons to be cheerful...
A J ELDER-BROWN UKIP @theblindblogger 1h
BREAKNG POLL NEWS:
Newark Poll:
2,100 voters polled by Loughborough University
#UKIP 31%
Con 30%
Lab 21%
LibDem 7%
http://nblo.gs/XrHfJ
The Lib Dems are never on 7% !
Even if it is, the other polls that have been taken suggest that the Conservative share must almost by definition be on the low end of their confidence interval
So
32.1 Con
28.9 UKIP
is perfectly possible and not an outlier.
Of course that doesn't square with Ashcroft, or Survation. Neither of which square with each other.
The Conservative vote share will show us which pollster was correct, all the other tallies are fairly similiar.
If they've been asking people in Newark proper then that might be the reason for their numbers. But I have no idea.
The numbers are also a bit too round to 30, 31% etc...
However someone (TSE?, OGH?)has to contact Loughborough University tommorow morning and ask them about this shifty poll before people start betting money on it.
I don't like it when there is a chance that people might lose a fortune because someone is publicly releasing opinion polls that might not even exist.
I'm not an expert but I would hazard that truly random sampling in respect of a specific constituency might not be ideal anyway because you'd want to account for different demographics which wouldn't follow a standard distribution pattern necessarily. I'm not saying this poll/survey has no merit I just think there's a limit to the value. We don't even know the structure of the question asked or anything about the time period of responses.
ie The 5 vote numbers all had to be a factor of 21.
Can't be bothered to think how to calculate the chances of that but the odds of it must be absolutely miniscule - probably something like one in 100,000 or one in a million.
Another Danish news item of interest - Dan Hannan has successfully persuaded the far-right Danish People's Party to switch from the nationalist EFP (where they sit with UKIP) to the Tory EPP. It's said (source: Danish Conservative newspaper Berlingske Tidende) that Cameron is not pleased, because the Tories have previously attacked UKIP over linking with the DFP. Tactically it's a coup for the EPP as it makes it more likely that they'll get full faction status (more money and seats on committees). Strategically it's going to be a bit awkward.
Why does the tweeter quoted call it Guido's poll?
Where is this coming from, alli I can find is some UKIP members tweeting about it?