Remember 2004 when Guardian readers wrote to Ohio voters suggesting they shouldn’t vote for Bush – p

https://twitter.com/EliStokols/status/1322216056975511557

Mexicanpete said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

JACK_W said:

CNN - 84.5M + have early voted - Approx 62% of the entire 2016 vote.

Here in WA State cumulative ballot returns for this election = 88% of total 2016 ballots cast.

Of course we are NOT on the battle ground for THIS election - but we ARE voting, and at a record-smashing pace.

Is your reading of the tea leaves, on the ground, as it were, that Trump is toast?

Yes. And have felt that way ever since COVID hit the US and he was worse than useless.

Though DO note that your truly was the guy who posted inside information on PB that Barack Obama was gonna win the 2008 New Hampshire Primary versus Hillary Clinton.

Caveat emptor!

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1322205182848098305?s=20

Looks like some Remain voters fell for the old fool.....

OR could be they agree with LBJ, who would rather have his enemies inside the tent pissing out, than outside pissing in.

A tent can only take so much piss. Corbyn has been widdling in the corner for decades, so this latest dribbling may not amount to much, but he's tested everyone's patience thats for sure.

https://twitter.com/johnpilger/status/1322216077997281281?s=20

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/EliStokols/status/1322216056975511557

Perhaps at this final stop, POTUS will give his considered view of his predecessor, the Pride of Grand Rapids, Gerald R. Ford?

"He was a looser."

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/EliStokols/status/1322216056975511557

Well love him or loathe him nobody can say Trump has not thrown everything at the last few weeks and days of the campaign, 10 swing state stops in 2 days is quite a marathon

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/EliStokols/status/1322216056975511557

Perhaps at this final stop, POTUS will give his considered view of his predecessor, the Pride of Grand Rapids, Gerald R. Ford?

"He was a looser."

From that (4 visits) does he think MI is more in play than PA? i kind of thought it was more the other way around, 4 super spreader rallies in one state,,,,

UK cases by specimen date.

The last 3-5 days are incomplete.

HYUFD said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/EliStokols/status/1322216056975511557

Well love him or loathe him nobody can say Trump has not thrown everything at the last few weeks and days of the campaign, 10 swing state stops in 2 days is quite a marathon

His energy levels have always been genuinely impressive in these matters. I hate the result, but his campaigning efforts show plenty of effort.

UK case summary

The last 3-5 days are incomplete

UK Deaths

The last 3-5 days are incomplete

Andy_JS said:

"When To Expect Election Results In Every State
A complete guide to poll closing times, vote counting and races to watch on election night 2020"

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-results-timing/

Thanks for that

Mal557 said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/EliStokols/status/1322216056975511557

Perhaps at this final stop, POTUS will give his considered view of his predecessor, the Pride of Grand Rapids, Gerald R. Ford?

"He was a looser."

From that (4 visits) does he think MI is more in play than PA? i kind of thought it was more the other way around, 4 super spreader rallies in one state,,,,

Suspect you are correct and his campaign thinks MI is super-critical. Though don't think he's slighting PA.

Not Blackpool?

https://twitter.com/ScotNational/status/1322218456331259910?s=20

Super spreader rallies,,,,,coincidence,,,,or not,
https://twitter.com/hshaban/status/1322020830428221440

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Mexicanpete said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

JACK_W said:

CNN - 84.5M + have early voted - Approx 62% of the entire 2016 vote.

Here in WA State cumulative ballot returns for this election = 88% of total 2016 ballots cast.

Of course we are NOT on the battle ground for THIS election - but we ARE voting, and at a record-smashing pace.

Is your reading of the tea leaves, on the ground, as it were, that Trump is toast?

Yes. And have felt that way ever since COVID hit the US and he was worse than useless.

Though DO note that your truly was the guy who posted inside information on PB that Barack Obama was gonna win the 2008 New Hampshire Primary versus Hillary Clinton.

Caveat emptor!

Thanks, I hope you are right.

Nigelb said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Nigelb said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

"This exercise has not been repeated in subsequent Presidential elections."

Except until now . . . by Nigel Farage . . .

That was... the bravest thing.

From Brit perspective, yes...

There was a touch of irony in my comment.
Not unconnected with Farage's oleaginous hyperbole about your leader's fearlessness.

I don't care whether he's fearless. He's a lying sociopathic serial bankrupt.

Latest PPP poll for Florida .

Biden 52

Trump 45

The pollster does have a Dem lean although the recall vote in the sample is close to the 2016 result . It’s rated B by Nate Silver. So certainly rates higher than many that find their way into here!

FWIW, here is my calculation by certain key states of what the 2020 vote must reach for % turnout by RV to match 2016:

Alaska 492,039
Arizona 3,769,320
Florida 12,562,989
Georgia 6,077,654
Iowa 1,943,207
Michigan 6,720,441
Nevada 1,719,385
New Hampshire 916,133
North Carolina 6,614,191
Ohio 7,130,697
Pennsylvania 7,904,575
Texas 13,921,343
Wisconsin 3,308,790

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/EliStokols/status/1322216056975511557

Well love him or loathe him nobody can say Trump has not thrown everything at the last few weeks and days of the campaign, 10 swing state stops in 2 days is quite a marathon

His energy levels have always been genuinely impressive in these matters. I hate the result, but his campaigning efforts show plenty of effort.

Yes, I'll give him that. He's a game old stick.

rottenborough said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/johnpilger/status/1322216077997281281?s=20

Not sure I see the connection between Corbyn and Social Democracy.

Corbynism is more Democratic than merely people voting for things they want

You know, like a Peoples Democratic Republic.....

FrancisUrquhart said:

kle4 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

CarlottaVance said:

Those least turned off by Corbyn's were Londoners (net -30), the young, (18-24, -17), most Southerners (-47) and elderly (65+ -58).

No JezFest next year then....

On the contary, it'll be even better as only really cool people like it, mass appeal is for sellouts.

He was the future once...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UVGFi8balOM

You can see why he appealed though. His oratory was very good and he promised them high wages, good jobs and positivity.

It's all bollocks, of course, but he told them what they wanted to hear.

Meanwhile, Theresa May hid in her car and didn't answer any questions at all when she did come out.

A Conservative who could rouse a crowd like that, promised opportunity for young people, credibly, would have a chance of winning a decent chunk of the under 35 vote.

Alistair said:

Big poll, waiting to see the numbers

https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/1322222064825180161?s=19

I always read them as NBC/Marxist.

malcolmg said:

Poll: If there was GE tomorrow the SNP would win 58 seats

One of the reasons there won't be one tomorrow!

Nigel_Foremain said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Carnyx said:

justin124 said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1322126032028291072?s=20

Am I the first to say it?
OK then.
KABOOM!

Obviously a good poll for Labour with the Tories on their lowest vote share since mid- 2019.Were Labour to maintain this position, I would expect a significant recovery for the party in Scotland as voters see a real prospect of the Tories being ousted.

Doesn't work very well. You need to allow for the fact that a lot of Scots have come to regard Labour as Tory Lite since 2014 (helping the Tories) and 2017 (ditto re Brexit, certainly the party leadership then), and as the SNP are more or less following Labour-type social democratic policies otherwise (or in advance of them, usually). And the other ones tend to vote proper full fat Tory or BXP anyway.

In 2019 a certain poster claimed that Scottish voters wouldn't forgive the SNP for railroading Labour into an unpropitious GE. Surely the EssEnnPee performing the worst betrayal of Labour since 1979 is not going to be forgotten by the punters in a hurry?

Why are you in so much denial about the possibility of an outcome which you might not like? It merely demonstrates the lack of perspective in all your posts. I do not particularly want a Labour government, but I accept that because the complete lack of leadership ability in Boris Johnson that is highly likely. To me it seems common sense that a resurgent Labour Party in England and Wales will change things in Scotland. Not necessarily over night, or necessarily with certainty, but it has to be a very likely possibility. The best hope for those of you that want Scottish Independence is a continuation of Bozo and Cummings in Downing Street.

You're 'labouring' (ho, ho) under the misapprehension that you have something other than clichés and well masticated memes that have been floating about for years to offer on this subject. Please disabuse yourself of that notion.

Er, no, I was just commenting on the massively blinkered nature of all your posts, although they are a little (only a little) more eloquent than Malcolmg (not a high bar!). I am not expecting you to admit that Scots Nationalism is a nasty malicious backward looking creed that really bases its support on a hatred of another nationality (the English), even though such an admission might add a little credibility. The fact that you, and the other prejudiced Scots Nats that post on here seem to believe that unless one is Scottish then a person does not have a right to offer an opinion on anything north of the border. A position which aside from its abject stupidity is borderline racist.

The reality remains that support for parties is febrile, and support for parties and ideas (such as independence) changes with circumstance. That is not a masticated meme or a cliché, it is a fact that clearly troubles your very narrow mind.

FPT: Sorry to miss the interesting discussion - was working on shed, installing reinforcement - collectively between all posters some good points, some downright rubbish (I think), and some food for thought. But one thing that I must address. It's the notion that support for independence is febrile. It's not - it's remarkably sticky. It took the 2014 campaign to shift it from about 25% to about 45% where it stayed for years. Amazingly invariant. Amazingly. Now it's up again and on 55-60%.

Whether this is a permanent shift remains to be seen, but even if one adopts your view that it is all contingent, don't forget that Brexit has now happened in one sense, and yet not in another - the full horror is yet to manifest. That is a permanent change. Farming and fishing are important to Scotland and they will be badly hit (remember, it's only the rich big long-distance trawler owners the Tories and the media listen to). And even if Boris Johnson is prised out with a crowbar the Tories themselves have permanently shifted to a UKIP-type party with a strong English nationalist flavour, and not the SNP social democratic kind either. It's not just Labour who have to reorganse themselves to appeal in Scotland.

The "lock us down hard now" brigade must be presented with the economics of this. We can't go on just having "the science" and its modelling paraded around without some wider societal context.

Where are the economists? Why are they never at a government press conference?

malcolmg said:

CarlottaVance said:

Not Blackpool?

https://twitter.com/ScotNational/status/1322218456331259910?s=20

It is part of the remaining 20% Doh!

Then why did Sturgeon focus on Blackpool?

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/nicola-sturgeon-blackpool-super-spreader-hotspot-a4570521.html

Is it because Spain is not in England?

LostPassword said:

MaxPB said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

BTW, 24,405 new cases.

I don't think we can trust these numbers any more, hospital admissions are going to be a better measure of viral presence than testing from now, unfortunately it runs 15-20 days behind infection.

A government that was trying everything in the hope that something would work would have followed up on the research into testing sewage, and be using that as a better way of monitoring prevalence in near real time at the population level.

What a load of crap.

williamglenn said:

Alistair said:

Big poll, waiting to see the numbers

https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/1322222064825180161?s=19

I always read them as NBC/Marxist.

For me it's Maris - and I always get an image of a potato. Which is quite nice.

Fishing said:

On the first quote, "... Remember the War of 1812? We didn't want you or your politics here" - in that case starting a pointless war when they were already independent but completely unprepared was a bizarre decision.

Indeed. As light relief on Friday pm, here is where one of the US super-frigates ended up ...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chesapeake_Mill

rottenborough said:

The "lock us down hard now" brigade must be presented with the economics of this. We can't go on just having "the science" and its modelling paraded around without some wider societal context.

Where are the economists? Why are they never at a government press conference?

Is it really so hard to understand that the virus spreading like wildfire is the worst possible thing for the economy?

Or that if you want to know how to prevent a virus from spreading you need to ask an epidemiologist, not an economist?

I mean, for God's sake, think about it! If you have a heart attack, it's going to mess up your finances really badly. Do you really think that means you should ask your bank manager for advice on how to avoid a heart attack, rather than a cardiologist?

CarlottaVance said:

malcolmg said:

CarlottaVance said:

Not Blackpool?

https://twitter.com/ScotNational/status/1322218456331259910?s=20

It is part of the remaining 20% Doh!

Then why did Sturgeon focus on Blackpool?

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/nicola-sturgeon-blackpool-super-spreader-hotspot-a4570521.html

Is it because Spain is not in England?

Because a lot of Glaswegians traditionally go on holiday there. Simple as that.

Roy_G_Biv said:

malcolmg said:

Poll: If there was GE tomorrow the SNP would win 58 seats

Flavible Politics
@flaviblePolitic
Ipsos Mori - 2020-10-28
LAB: 42% (+9)
CON: 37% (-8)
LDEM: 8% (-4)
SNP: 5% (+1)
GRN: 5% (+2)
PC: 1% (+1)

Flavible Projection
LAB: 304 (+101)
CON: 257 (-108)
SNP: 58 (+10)
LDEM: 7 (-4)
PC: 4 (-)
GRN: 1 (-)
OTH: 1 (+1)

I find that quite doubtful when you think of Edinburgh South, Dumfries & Galloway, Orkney & Shetland.

56, 57, 58, hardly makes much difference, the main position remains dire. Saw a comment earlier about people not wanting to be tied up in years more constitutional wrangling, but of that's nonsense. No one enjoys it, but as with Brexit if people decide they want out, sensibly or otherwise, and even if they hate the indecision and divisiveness that results, they've made up their mind and will stick with it.

kinabalu said:

Mal557 said:

Alistair said:

Big poll, waiting to see the numbers

https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/1322222064825180161?s=19

On face value thats a very good poll for Biden indeed

2 things hovering on the edge that I'm desperate to see go over the weekend -

(i) Betfair Trump price to down tools and get 3 in the rear view mirror.

(ii) 538 Biden prob to hit 90% so we get a clearly favoured.

I'm getting a rash waiting for these things.

What if it's like the nomination?

Biden might *still* be 1.2 for the presidency even on 4th Nov.

isam said:

...

noneoftheabove said:

CarlottaVance said:

Bell plumbs new depths...

https://twitter.com/DanielShindler/status/1322094585821233152?s=20

Must admit I have absolutely zero idea why that cartoon is anti-semitic. Presume its something to do with the way Starmer is drawn? But all I see is him looking a touch effeminate not at all Jewish. What am I missing? Is it a variant on something famous?

John The Baptist/King Herod?

I think it is take on a Caravaggio painting.

Carnyx said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Carnyx said:

justin124 said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1322126032028291072?s=20

Am I the first to say it?
OK then.
KABOOM!

Obviously a good poll for Labour with the Tories on their lowest vote share since mid- 2019.Were Labour to maintain this position, I would expect a significant recovery for the party in Scotland as voters see a real prospect of the Tories being ousted.

Doesn't work very well. You need to allow for the fact that a lot of Scots have come to regard Labour as Tory Lite since 2014 (helping the Tories) and 2017 (ditto re Brexit, certainly the party leadership then), and as the SNP are more or less following Labour-type social democratic policies otherwise (or in advance of them, usually). And the other ones tend to vote proper full fat Tory or BXP anyway.

In 2019 a certain poster claimed that Scottish voters wouldn't forgive the SNP for railroading Labour into an unpropitious GE. Surely the EssEnnPee performing the worst betrayal of Labour since 1979 is not going to be forgotten by the punters in a hurry?

Why are you in so much denial about the possibility of an outcome which you might not like? It merely demonstrates the lack of perspective in all your posts. I do not particularly want a Labour government, but I accept that because the complete lack of leadership ability in Boris Johnson that is highly likely. To me it seems common sense that a resurgent Labour Party in England and Wales will change things in Scotland. Not necessarily over night, or necessarily with certainty, but it has to be a very likely possibility. The best hope for those of you that want Scottish Independence is a continuation of Bozo and Cummings in Downing Street.

You're 'labouring' (ho, ho) under the misapprehension that you have something other than clichés and well masticated memes that have been floating about for years to offer on this subject. Please disabuse yourself of that notion.

Er, no, I was just commenting on the massively blinkered nature of all your posts, although they are a little (only a little) more eloquent than Malcolmg (not a high bar!). I am not expecting you to admit that Scots Nationalism is a nasty malicious backward looking creed that really bases its support on a hatred of another nationality (the English), even though such an admission might add a little credibility. The fact that you, and the other prejudiced Scots Nats that post on here seem to believe that unless one is Scottish then a person does not have a right to offer an opinion on anything north of the border. A position which aside from its abject stupidity is borderline racist.

The reality remains that support for parties is febrile, and support for parties and ideas (such as independence) changes with circumstance. That is not a masticated meme or a cliché, it is a fact that clearly troubles your very narrow mind.

FPT: Sorry to miss the interesting discussion - was working on shed, installing reinforcement - collectively between all posters some good points, some downright rubbish (I think), and some food for thought. But one thing that I must address. It's the notion that support for independence is febrile. It's not - it's remarkably sticky. It took the 2014 campaign to shift it from about 25% to about 45% where it stayed for years. Amazingly invariant. Amazingly. Now it's up again and on 55-60%.

Whether this is a permanent shift remains to be seen, but even if one adopts your view that it is all contingent, don't forget that Brexit has now happened in one sense, and yet not in another - the full horror is yet to manifest. That is a permanent change. Farming and fishing are important to Scotland and they will be badly hit (remember, it's only the rich big long-distance trawler owners the Tories and the media listen to). And even if Boris Johnson is prised out with a crowbar the Tories themselves have permanently shifted to a UKIP-type party with a strong English nationalist flavour, and not the SNP social democratic kind either. It's not just Labour who have to reorganse themselves to appeal in Scotland.

Thank you for your much more balanced, civilised and reasoned response than those from certain others. To clarify, I didn't say support for independence is febrile, that may be more difficult to interpret, and particularly as I rarely visit Scotland these days. What I did say was support for parties is febrile, at least, and perhaps I should have further defined, a great deal more febrile than it once was. If it were not then Labour would still have it's seats in Scotland and the usual places in England. I guess really what I was attempting to say was that people seem a lot more able to change their minds and party allegiance than in the past, I certainly have over the last few years. I doubt that Scots are much less able to do this than others, and for that reason it is perfectly possible that, as a previous poster suggested, support for independence MIGHT wane if there is the possibility of a non Tory, or at least a non-Johnson government at UK level.

Believe it is this. Salome with the head of John the Baptist. https://images.app.goo.gl/rWGsjXoJ3SQjSWMBA

rottenborough said:

isam said:

...

noneoftheabove said:

CarlottaVance said:

Bell plumbs new depths...

https://twitter.com/DanielShindler/status/1322094585821233152?s=20

Must admit I have absolutely zero idea why that cartoon is anti-semitic. Presume its something to do with the way Starmer is drawn? But all I see is him looking a touch effeminate not at all Jewish. What am I missing? Is it a variant on something famous?

John The Baptist/King Herod?

I think it is take on a Caravaggio painting.

Looks like the picture in my old Bible for kids of JTB after Herod's wife had demanded his head

noneoftheabove said:

CarlottaVance said:

Bell plumbs new depths...

https://twitter.com/DanielShindler/status/1322094585821233152?s=20

Must admit I have absolutely zero idea why that cartoon is anti-semitic. Presume its something to do with the way Starmer is drawn? But all I see is him looking a touch effeminate not at all Jewish. What am I missing? Is it a variant on something famous?

Is it an implication that Starmer has offered Jeremy's head on a plate to placate international Jewry?

Malmesbury said:

noneoftheabove said:

CarlottaVance said:

Bell plumbs new depths...

https://twitter.com/DanielShindler/status/1322094585821233152?s=20

Must admit I have absolutely zero idea why that cartoon is anti-semitic. Presume its something to do with the way Starmer is drawn? But all I see is him looking a touch effeminate not at all Jewish. What am I missing? Is it a variant on something famous?

Heads on dishes - John the Baptist etc... ??

Dont really know my biblical history at all so not much the wiser but fair enough if thats the reference, the cartoonist should have checked if he didnt know it could be controversial.

noneoftheabove said:

CarlottaVance said:

Bell plumbs new depths...

https://twitter.com/DanielShindler/status/1322094585821233152?s=20

Must admit I have absolutely zero idea why that cartoon is anti-semitic. Presume its something to do with the way Starmer is drawn? But all I see is him looking a touch effeminate not at all Jewish. What am I missing? Is it a variant on something famous?

Carvaggio's John the Baptist paintings and Jews killed Christ tropes.

Deleted -- point already made.

Kamala Harris off to Georgia again on Sunday - Atlanta Constitutional Journal

Malmesbury said:

noneoftheabove said:

CarlottaVance said:

Bell plumbs new depths...

https://twitter.com/DanielShindler/status/1322094585821233152?s=20

Must admit I have absolutely zero idea why that cartoon is anti-semitic. Presume its something to do with the way Starmer is drawn? But all I see is him looking a touch effeminate not at all Jewish. What am I missing? Is it a variant on something famous?

Heads on dishes - John the Baptist etc... ??

Genuine question, and not meant to offend anyone. But if something does not even raise the slightest connection to Judaism in the minds of most of the population, but only with those who have specialist knowledge in the field, is it anti-semitic? I guess the knowledge and the intention of the author are important in this respect.

I, for the life of me, would not have made a connection between that cartoon and anti-semitism, save perhaps for the reason Corbyn's head is on the plate. Now the connection with islamic extremists was beyond obvious.

Casino_Royale said:

kinabalu said:

Mal557 said:

Alistair said:

Big poll, waiting to see the numbers

https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/1322222064825180161?s=19

On face value thats a very good poll for Biden indeed

2 things hovering on the edge that I'm desperate to see go over the weekend -

(i) Betfair Trump price to down tools and get 3 in the rear view mirror.

(ii) 538 Biden prob to hit 90% so we get a clearly favoured.

I'm getting a rash waiting for these things.

What if it's like the nomination?

Biden might *still* be 1.2 for the presidency even on 4th Nov.

With Texas called for him. Yes, it wouldn't now surprise me. In 2016, the market lean was Trump couldn't win. In 2020, it's that he is jolly well going to do it again. I was sure he'd be above 4 and trending 5 on eve of poll. Looks like I got that wrong. Just hope I've got the main event right.

Carnyx said:

CarlottaVance said:

malcolmg said:

CarlottaVance said:

Not Blackpool?

https://twitter.com/ScotNational/status/1322218456331259910?s=20

It is part of the remaining 20% Doh!

Then why did Sturgeon focus on Blackpool?

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/nicola-sturgeon-blackpool-super-spreader-hotspot-a4570521.html

Is it because Spain is not in England?

Because a lot of Glaswegians traditionally go on holiday there. Simple as that.

More than go to Spain?

Pre-COVID Spain held 7 out of the top 10 holiday destinations:

https://www.glasgowlive.co.uk/news/glasgow-news/top-10-holiday-destinations-scottish-13854857

kinabalu said:

noneoftheabove said:

CarlottaVance said:

Bell plumbs new depths...

https://twitter.com/DanielShindler/status/1322094585821233152?s=20

Must admit I have absolutely zero idea why that cartoon is anti-semitic. Presume its something to do with the way Starmer is drawn? But all I see is him looking a touch effeminate not at all Jewish. What am I missing? Is it a variant on something famous?

Is it an implication that Starmer has offered Jeremy's head on a plate to placate international Jewry?

King Herod was certainly National Jewry. It's possible Steve Bell didn't know that, or recognise that Bible stories quite often contain Jewish people, but it's careless, to say the least.