Remember 2004 when Guardian readers wrote to Ohio voters suggesting they shouldn’t vote for Bush – p
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Remember 2004 when Guardian readers wrote to Ohio voters suggesting they shouldn’t vote for Bush – politicalbetting.com
Seeing how close the current battle is in Ohio is a reminder to me of the effort by the Guardian at WH2004 to try to influence the election in this key swing state.
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A Guardian reader writes...First!0
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I have to say that I'm not on Ohio. I think Trump may win it. Also think he might sneak Texas but that will be about it for him.
Remarkable news from Texas: more people have voted already than the entirety of the 2016 vote.
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/10/30/us/trump-biden-election?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage
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Non £-wall FT on COVID and summer madness:
https://twitter.com/FinancialTimes/status/1322191580594343937?s=200 -
Is Wading River a place, a person, or just a hobby of pond-life?0
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So about the idea that Britain as the 51st state would lock in a Democratic majority...0
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What a good idea it was to encourage people to go on foreign holidays this Summer!CarlottaVance said:Non £-wall FT on COVID and summer madness:
https://twitter.com/FinancialTimes/status/1322191580594343937?s=200 -
No surprises really here but LA Times reporting that GOP are increasingly concerned that they're going to lose the Senate.
https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2020-10-30/gop-increasingly-worried-about-losing-senate-control
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The flipside of this was of course back of the queue stuff...went down like a bucket of cold sick.0
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"This exercise has not been repeated in subsequent Presidential elections."
Except until now . . . by Nigel Farage . . .0 -
I was wrong too, I thought tory plurality. At least at the start, I think I went majority by the end but don't remember.Foxy said:
In 2019 pretty much everyone here predicted a Con majority apart from @CorrectHorseBattery .Quincel said:
Out of curiosity, is there anywhere where we can see the 2019 and other old predictions from PBers? We should really keep a database of final calls.HYUFD said:
Having called Boris PM and GE19 right if Trump narrowly wins the EC even if Biden wins the popular vote I will probably be one of the if not the most accurate election forecasters on here at the momentMysticrose said:
No you see this is, forgive me, complete rubbish.HYUFD said:
No, otherwise I would have got GE19 wrong too, it would just mean you cannot win them all and nothing wrong with thatkinabalu said:
Strawman.HYUFD said:
No as I have never said Biden could not winRoger said:
In the EXTREMELY unlikely event that Biden wins will you feel embarrassed?HYUFD said:
Trump thought he had lost on election day 2016, he wonMysticrose said:
This continues the theme that is there for the reading. They know he has lost.Scott_xP said:
The most you could take from this as a Trump supporter would be that he is hoping to fight contended results. But it's a far cry from a victory party setup, that's the point.
Point is, if Biden wins BIG you will have been proved to be an irrational, know nothing blowhard.
You do accept that, one presumes?
Even a broken clock tells the right time twice a day. And that, I'm afraid, sums up your method.
So not much bragging rights.0 -
I think Texas might just flip.Mysticrose said:I have to say that I'm not on Ohio. I think Trump may win it. Also think he might sneak Texas but that will be about it for him.
Remarkable news from Texas: more people have voted already than the entirety of the 2016 vote.
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/10/30/us/trump-biden-election?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/10/30/democrats-plan-to-win-texas-4336440 -
Spanish flu. Again.Chris said:
What a good idea it was to encourage people to go on foreign holidays this Summer!CarlottaVance said:Non £-wall FT on COVID and summer madness:
https://twitter.com/FinancialTimes/status/1322191580594343937?s=200 -
That was... the bravest thing.SeaShantyIrish2 said:"This exercise has not been repeated in subsequent Presidential elections."
Except until now . . . by Nigel Farage . . .
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The history books will be filled with pointing to this decision by European leaders as unfathomable clusterfuck....and yet anybody with half a brain could see the potential risks...and was pointed out day after day on here...and what are we doing about it now, bugger all...as far as i know, no rules against going away for Christmas or skiing at Easter.Chris said:
What a good idea it was to encourage people to go on foreign holidays this Summer!CarlottaVance said:Non £-wall FT on COVID and summer madness:
https://twitter.com/FinancialTimes/status/1322191580594343937?s=200 -
Well I hope so as I do have bets on them doing it. Probably my riskiest bet for next week I think.Nigelb said:
I think Texas might just flip.Mysticrose said:I have to say that I'm not on Ohio. I think Trump may win it. Also think he might sneak Texas but that will be about it for him.
Remarkable news from Texas: more people have voted already than the entirety of the 2016 vote.
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/10/30/us/trump-biden-election?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/10/30/democrats-plan-to-win-texas-4336440 -
FPT @ Malmesbury. PS, on the basis of your remarks about your wife's world view, you may enjoy the book "Immunity to Change" by Kegan and Laskow Lahey of Harvard's Graduate School of Education. It is both very enlightening and quite readable.0
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Yes, and many more than those like him will have said it was a good idea at the time and will need to be careful in their criticism to avoid looking foolish.Theuniondivvie said:The shameless dimwits are the best dimwits.
https://twitter.com/JimMFelton/status/1322171234143055872?s=20
Though pundits never seem to let looking foolish dent their confidence.0 -
If the Spanish flu is anything to go by, the pandemic probably won't figure in the history books as much as it should.FrancisUrquhart said:
The history books will be filled with pointing to this decision by European leaders as unfathomable clusterfuck....and yet anybody with half a brain could see the potential risks...and was pointed out day after day on here...and what are we doing about it now, bugger all...as far as i know, no rules against going away for Christmas or skiing at Easter.Chris said:
What a good idea it was to encourage people to go on foreign holidays this Summer!CarlottaVance said:Non £-wall FT on COVID and summer madness:
https://twitter.com/FinancialTimes/status/1322191580594343937?s=200 -
An estimated 570,000 people in homes in England had coronavirus in the week ending 23 October, according to figures from the Office for National Statistics
Herd immunity incoming....0 -
Was there evidence that the move actually worsened Kerry's position in Clark County, though? Whilst quite funny, the reactions in the article are clearly from convinced George W Bush supporters so don't matter. The reactions that matter would be from swing voters who were either affronted or persuaded.
Personally, I tend to think the vast majority say "meh" to it and very few are influenced either way (with roughly equal numbers each way). Similarly when Obama intervened on Brexit - the people who were furious were always going to be furious; the people who were delighted were always going to be delighted; and the people who mattered didn't give a sh1t either way ("that's nice, Barry, but not really interested in the view from Chicago").1 -
The article is well worth reading.Mysticrose said:
Well I hope so as I do have bets on them doing it. Probably my riskiest bet for next week I think.Nigelb said:
I think Texas might just flip.Mysticrose said:I have to say that I'm not on Ohio. I think Trump may win it. Also think he might sneak Texas but that will be about it for him.
Remarkable news from Texas: more people have voted already than the entirety of the 2016 vote.
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/10/30/us/trump-biden-election?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/10/30/democrats-plan-to-win-texas-433644
I wasn’t aware of quite the extent of Democratic efforts in rural counties this year.0 -
That is incredible. Shameless is the right word, how does he have the front?!kle4 said:
Yes, and many more than those like him will have said it was a good idea at the time and will need to be careful in their criticism to avoid looking foolish.Theuniondivvie said:The shameless dimwits are the best dimwits.
https://twitter.com/JimMFelton/status/1322171234143055872?s=20
Though pundits never seem to let looking foolish dent their confidence.
Also, James Felton's funniest ever tweet there
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A lot of us wishful thinkers doubted a majority of the magnitude Johnson achieved.kle4 said:
I was wrong too, I thought tory plurality. At least at the start, I think I went majority by the end but don't remember.Foxy said:
In 2019 pretty much everyone here predicted a Con majority apart from @CorrectHorseBattery .Quincel said:
Out of curiosity, is there anywhere where we can see the 2019 and other old predictions from PBers? We should really keep a database of final calls.HYUFD said:
Having called Boris PM and GE19 right if Trump narrowly wins the EC even if Biden wins the popular vote I will probably be one of the if not the most accurate election forecasters on here at the momentMysticrose said:
No you see this is, forgive me, complete rubbish.HYUFD said:
No, otherwise I would have got GE19 wrong too, it would just mean you cannot win them all and nothing wrong with thatkinabalu said:
Strawman.HYUFD said:
No as I have never said Biden could not winRoger said:
In the EXTREMELY unlikely event that Biden wins will you feel embarrassed?HYUFD said:
Trump thought he had lost on election day 2016, he wonMysticrose said:
This continues the theme that is there for the reading. They know he has lost.Scott_xP said:
The most you could take from this as a Trump supporter would be that he is hoping to fight contended results. But it's a far cry from a victory party setup, that's the point.
Point is, if Biden wins BIG you will have been proved to be an irrational, know nothing blowhard.
You do accept that, one presumes?
Even a broken clock tells the right time twice a day. And that, I'm afraid, sums up your method.
So not much bragging rights.0 -
https://twitter.com/AlistairHaimes/status/1322169903718215682?s=20FrancisUrquhart said:An estimated 570,000 people in homes in England had coronavirus in the week ending 23 October, according to figures from the Office for National Statistics
Herd immunity incoming....
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Thats because it was overshadowed by another minor story in history....this time, there isn't really much else going on in the West. Trump and Brexit don't match up to 100,000s dying.williamglenn said:
If the Spanish flu is anything to go by, the pandemic probably won't figure in the history books as much as it should.FrancisUrquhart said:
The history books will be filled with pointing to this decision by European leaders as unfathomable clusterfuck....and yet anybody with half a brain could see the potential risks...and was pointed out day after day on here...and what are we doing about it now, bugger all...as far as i know, no rules against going away for Christmas or skiing at Easter.Chris said:
What a good idea it was to encourage people to go on foreign holidays this Summer!CarlottaVance said:Non £-wall FT on COVID and summer madness:
https://twitter.com/FinancialTimes/status/1322191580594343937?s=200 -
The SAGE model predicts a much longer wave this time, rather than a rapid increase and decline. If 300+ people die a day for 6 months the area under the line is going to be greater for wave 2.isam said:
https://twitter.com/AlistairHaimes/status/1322169903718215682?s=20FrancisUrquhart said:An estimated 570,000 people in homes in England had coronavirus in the week ending 23 October, according to figures from the Office for National Statistics
Herd immunity incoming....0 -
You mean that minor border skirmish in North East France?FrancisUrquhart said:
Thats because it was overshadowed by another minor story in history....this time, there isn't really much else going on in the West. Trump and Brexit don't match up to 100,000s dying.williamglenn said:
If the Spanish flu is anything to go by, the pandemic probably won't figure in the history books as much as it should.FrancisUrquhart said:
The history books will be filled with pointing to this decision by European leaders as unfathomable clusterfuck....and yet anybody with half a brain could see the potential risks...and was pointed out day after day on here...and what are we doing about it now, bugger all...as far as i know, no rules against going away for Christmas or skiing at Easter.Chris said:
What a good idea it was to encourage people to go on foreign holidays this Summer!CarlottaVance said:Non £-wall FT on COVID and summer madness:
https://twitter.com/FinancialTimes/status/1322191580594343937?s=200 -
Reading through the IBD latest poll I found this interesting comment
"Today's Trump vs. Biden poll finds Biden up by 26 points in blue states and Trump leading by 11 points in red states. Yet the two are tied at 48% in swing states. To be sure, those differentials reflect smaller samples, especially the swing state total, which comes with a wide credibility interval."
Now of course the samples as they say are much smaller than full state polls but it does feed into this narrative of Biden being so far up nationally due to increasing his vote in both blue and red states but not in the swing states.
I'm still not convinced of this but you can see why the narrative for a Trump win even more against the odds than 2016 is possible.0 -
Surely - "Frist!"Mexicanpete said:A Guardian reader writes...First!
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Ohio has been trending (or rather creeping) toward the Republicans for a while. Personally think that (unfortunately) Trumpsky will hold it. UNLESS of course the polls are overestimating rather than underestimating him this year.Mysticrose said:I have to say that I'm not on Ohio. I think Trump may win it. Also think he might sneak Texas but that will be about it for him.
Remarkable news from Texas: more people have voted already than the entirety of the 2016 vote.
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/10/30/us/trump-biden-election?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage
Worth noting that the Great Lake States may seem like much of a sameness to outlanders - including most Americans - but they are more diverse and WAY more divergent among themselves, extending the length of the Ohio River AND the upper Mississippi River, from the grimy harbor of Ashtabula, Ohio on Lake Erie hard on the PA line, to the wild rice and piney woods of Frostbite (sorry, International Falls, Minnesota, to Little Egypt and Cairo, Illinois where the Ohio meets the Mississippi, much closer to Memphis than Lake Michigan.
AND that's not counting Pennsylvania, which has a small "riviera" on balmy Lake Erie, the site of the fabled city of that name - "dreary Erie on the Lake". Parts of western PA are quite Midwestern, though central and PA not so much.
Electorally for most of the 21st century (which purists know began in 2001) Illinois has been a Democratic stronghold (statewide) while Indiana has been same for the Republicans (ditto) albeit with occasional bursts of rebellion. When Dems win Indiana for president means a national blowout their way; same would be true of Illinois (once noted as a bellweather) the other way.
Always been contrary. In Civil War was notorious for copperheads = confederate sympathizers and draft riots. AND also for the Iron Brigade which was one of the best fighting outfits in the entire Union Army.
As maybe you can tell, have spent some quality time in this region, and have always found it fascinating. IF you want to know ANYTHING about America, you must know SOMETHING about the Midwest and the Great Lakes - the heartland of the nation.
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There was a bit of pushing & shoving in Russia and a spot of bother in the Italian Alps among others, IIRCRobD said:
You mean that minor border skirmish in North East France?FrancisUrquhart said:
Thats because it was overshadowed by another minor story in history....this time, there isn't really much else going on in the West. Trump and Brexit don't match up to 100,000s dying.williamglenn said:
If the Spanish flu is anything to go by, the pandemic probably won't figure in the history books as much as it should.FrancisUrquhart said:
The history books will be filled with pointing to this decision by European leaders as unfathomable clusterfuck....and yet anybody with half a brain could see the potential risks...and was pointed out day after day on here...and what are we doing about it now, bugger all...as far as i know, no rules against going away for Christmas or skiing at Easter.Chris said:
What a good idea it was to encourage people to go on foreign holidays this Summer!CarlottaVance said:Non £-wall FT on COVID and summer madness:
https://twitter.com/FinancialTimes/status/1322191580594343937?s=200 -
I'm expecting both Texas and Ohio to stay red, though Biden to make gains in both from 2016. I'm more looking at Georgia as the one to flip. I think its too soon for Texas though some of the early voting figures are indeed incredible.Nigelb said:
I think Texas might just flip.Mysticrose said:I have to say that I'm not on Ohio. I think Trump may win it. Also think he might sneak Texas but that will be about it for him.
Remarkable news from Texas: more people have voted already than the entirety of the 2016 vote.
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/10/30/us/trump-biden-election?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/10/30/democrats-plan-to-win-texas-4336440 -
The same kind of thinking behind getting Obama to make the now infamous "back of the queue" comments. It's just unnecessary.0
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I think the likely ending of human civilization for a while due to global overheating, and our moronic failure to do anything about it even when we could see it coming and could easily have de-carbonised will make this pandemic a minor footnote, if people are actually writing history books in a couple of hundreds years.FrancisUrquhart said:
Thats because it was overshadowed by another minor story in history....this time, there isn't really much else going on in the West. Trump and Brexit don't match up to 100,000s dying.williamglenn said:
If the Spanish flu is anything to go by, the pandemic probably won't figure in the history books as much as it should.FrancisUrquhart said:
The history books will be filled with pointing to this decision by European leaders as unfathomable clusterfuck....and yet anybody with half a brain could see the potential risks...and was pointed out day after day on here...and what are we doing about it now, bugger all...as far as i know, no rules against going away for Christmas or skiing at Easter.Chris said:
What a good idea it was to encourage people to go on foreign holidays this Summer!CarlottaVance said:Non £-wall FT on COVID and summer madness:
https://twitter.com/FinancialTimes/status/1322191580594343937?s=201 -
I suspect the government has left it too late to take decisive action, again. It feels like the second week of March again, when most people were taking precautions before the formal "lockdown".CarlottaVance said:
It also appears that the PM is on leave again this week, it being half term and the HoC in recess. I've not seen, or heard from, him - where is he? How many days leave does he get a year? At least as much as teachers (who thoroughly deserve it), it would appear.0 -
I think Indiana is a lost cause for the Democrats these days, this side of a post-Trump dissolution of the GOP, which I think could only happen if Trump flees on AF1 to SVO on Jan 19th. Illinois would be as red as Indiana without Chicago. I've heard that the area around Cairo still regrets not joining the Confederacy while they had the chance.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Ohio has been trending (or rather creeping) toward the Republicans for a while. Personally think that (unfortunately) Trumpsky will hold it. UNLESS of course the polls are overestimating rather than underestimating him this year.Mysticrose said:I have to say that I'm not on Ohio. I think Trump may win it. Also think he might sneak Texas but that will be about it for him.
Remarkable news from Texas: more people have voted already than the entirety of the 2016 vote.
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/10/30/us/trump-biden-election?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage
Worth noting that the Great Lake States may seem like much of a sameness to outlanders - including most Americans - but they are more diverse and WAY more divergent among themselves, extending the length of the Ohio River AND the upper Mississippi River, from the grimy harbor of Ashtabula, Ohio on Lake Erie hard on the PA line, to the wild rice and piney woods of Frostbite (sorry, International Falls, Minnesota, to Little Egypt and Cairo, Illinois where the Ohio meets the Mississippi, much closer to Memphis than Lake Michigan.
AND that's not counting Pennsylvania, which has a small "riviera" on balmy Lake Erie, the site of the fabled city of that name - "dreary Erie on the Lake". Parts of western PA are quite Midwestern, though central and PA not so much.
Electorally for most of the 21st century (which purists know began in 2001) Illinois has been a Democratic stronghold (statewide) while Indiana has been same for the Republicans (ditto) albeit with occasional bursts of rebellion. When Dems win Indiana for president means a national blowout their way; same would be true of Illinois (once noted as a bellweather) the other way.
Always been contrary. In Civil War was notorious for copperheads = confederate sympathizers and draft riots. AND also for the Iron Brigade which was one of the best fighting outfits in the entire Union Army.
As maybe you can tell, have spent some quality time in this region, and have always found it fascinating. IF you want to know ANYTHING about America, you must know SOMETHING about the Midwest and the Great Lakes - the heartland of the nation.
Also props to visiting Point Judith light. I hope you had a chance to sample some of my wife's home town's finest seafood at George's or Champlain's or Iggy's while you were there!0 -
He was on TV earlier in the week talking about FSM.Northern_Al said:
I suspect the government has left it too late to take decisive action, again. It feels like the second week of March again, when most people were taking precautions before the formal "lockdown".CarlottaVance said:
It also appears that the PM is on leave again this week, it being half term and the HoC in recess. I've not seen, or heard from, him - where is he? How many days leave does he get a year? At least as much as teachers (who thoroughly deserve it), it would appear.0 -
https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1320786610846392321?s=20Northern_Al said:
It also appears that the PM is on leave again this week, it being half term and the HoC in recess. I've not seen, or heard from, him - where is he? How many days leave does he get a year? At least as much as teachers (who thoroughly deserve it), it would appear.CarlottaVance said:
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Judging by that comment from Springfield maybe they will be a bit more receptive post Brexit?0
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Well, we listened to him on the Brussels and Berlin stuff.1
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Farage also spoke at a Trump rally in Mississippi in 2016SeaShantyIrish2 said:"This exercise has not been repeated in subsequent Presidential elections."
Except until now . . . by Nigel Farage . . .0 -
You go to all that trouble of banjaxing the USPS, then the ingrates do this:
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1322204026407145477?s=200 -
So those (Republican) states that only start counting (mainly Democratic) mail-in ballots on the day of the election, should only count as many as they can during election day, and reject all other mail-in ballots, even if received ahead of election day?CarlottaVance said:You go to all that trouble of banjaxing the USPS, then the ingrates do this:
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1322204026407145477?s=20
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They'll speak, but will they make the same claims as Corbyn and get suspended with him?CarlottaVance said:0 -
We can live in hope..kle4 said:
They'll speak, but will they make the same claims as Corbyn and get suspended with him?CarlottaVance said:0 -
We probably wouldn't like it if Americans tried to advise us how to vote in UK elections.0
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CNN - 84.5M + have early voted - Approx 62% of the entire 2016 vote.0
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A contretemps, if you will.RobD said:
You mean that minor border skirmish in North East France?FrancisUrquhart said:
Thats because it was overshadowed by another minor story in history....this time, there isn't really much else going on in the West. Trump and Brexit don't match up to 100,000s dying.williamglenn said:
If the Spanish flu is anything to go by, the pandemic probably won't figure in the history books as much as it should.FrancisUrquhart said:
The history books will be filled with pointing to this decision by European leaders as unfathomable clusterfuck....and yet anybody with half a brain could see the potential risks...and was pointed out day after day on here...and what are we doing about it now, bugger all...as far as i know, no rules against going away for Christmas or skiing at Easter.Chris said:
What a good idea it was to encourage people to go on foreign holidays this Summer!CarlottaVance said:Non £-wall FT on COVID and summer madness:
https://twitter.com/FinancialTimes/status/1322191580594343937?s=200 -
From Brit perspective, yes.Nigelb said:
That was... the bravest thing.SeaShantyIrish2 said:"This exercise has not been repeated in subsequent Presidential elections."
Except until now . . . by Nigel Farage . . .
As far as we colonials are concerned, the folks most likely to take umbrage re: interfering foreigners are right-wingers hopped-up on hyper-nationalist bullshit = Republicans. Not all, but plenty - and they are plenty plentiful among super-MAGAists.
Democrats, especially on the progressive wing but including vast majority of moderates, tend to like foreigners just for being foreign.
So doubt that Nigel F is coming across badly on that score, even with people who despise Trumpsky & his hordes.
Strikes me that WRITTEN communication may NOT be best way for Brits to persuade Americans, at least not in short texts & emails. Because to our ears you too often come across (like Elizabeth Warren did this year) as preachy, condescending and school-marmish.
NOT totally, or hugely or (for the most part) deliberately or consciously. In fact, it has more to do with cultural differences in how Americans & Brits habitually use and misuse our native tongues.
My guess is that a similar email-text campaign directed by US enthusiasts to UK skeptics would suffer from same problem, just in reverse.
HOWEVER, my sense is that this barrier is MUCH less when it comes to the spoken word, especially when the speaker is seen (in person or on screen) as well as heard.
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He seems to have confused an issue that is a problem for him and his re-election hopes as one that impacts the entire country.CarlottaVance said:You go to all that trouble of banjaxing the USPS, then the ingrates do this:
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1322204026407145477?s=200 -
I'm just disappointed that people will claim to stand with him, but only in safe, milquetoast way. And they being erstwhile revolutionaries, too, yet no boldness.eek said:
We can live in hope..kle4 said:
They'll speak, but will they make the same claims as Corbyn and get suspended with him?CarlottaVance said:0 -
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1322205182848098305?s=20
Looks like some Remain voters fell for the old fool.....1 -
Here in WA State cumulative ballot returns for this election = 88% of total 2016 ballots cast.JACK_W said:CNN - 84.5M + have early voted - Approx 62% of the entire 2016 vote.
Of course we are NOT on the battle ground for THIS election - but we ARE voting, and at a record-smashing pace.1 -
What makes you think the two aren't mutually inclusive.eek said:
He seems to have confused an issue that is a problem for him and his re-election hopes as one that impacts the entire country.CarlottaVance said:You go to all that trouble of banjaxing the USPS, then the ingrates do this:
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1322204026407145477?s=20
If Trump loses he unleashes fire and brimstone on the ingrates.0 -
The difference is Democrats in America can look at any other foreign western nation and see one more left liberal than their own, so are very open to ideas from them about how to shift in that direction.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
From Brit perspective, yes.Nigelb said:
That was... the bravest thing.SeaShantyIrish2 said:"This exercise has not been repeated in subsequent Presidential elections."
Except until now . . . by Nigel Farage . . .
As far as we colonials are concerned, the folks most likely to take umbrage re: interfering foreigners are right-wingers hopped-up on hyper-nationalist bullshit = Republicans. Not all, but plenty - and they are plenty plentiful among super-MAGAists.
Democrats, especially on the progressive wing but including vast majority of moderates, tend to like foreigners just for being foreign.
So doubt that Nigel F is coming across badly on that score, even with people who despise Trumpsky & his hordes.
Strikes me that WRITTEN communication may NOT be best way for Brits to persuade Americans, at least not in short texts & emails. Because to our ears you too often come across (like Elizabeth Warren did this year) as preachy, condescending and school-marmish.
NOT totally, or hugely or (for the most part) deliberately or consciously. In fact, it has more to do with cultural differences in how Americans & Brits habitually use and misuse our native tongues.
My guess is that a similar email-text campaign directed by US enthusiasts to UK skeptics would suffer from same problem, just in reverse.
HOWEVER, my sense is that this barrier is MUCH less when it comes to the spoken word, especially when the speaker is seen (in person or on screen) as well as heard.
For Republicans however the USA is the most rightwing and conservative developed nation on the planet and they take umbrage at foreigners trying to tell them to change that1 -
Had to say, I liked the Canadian study linked this morning that left the most marginal remaining red state as Louisiana (Trump +5.7), Biden having flipped everything he reasonably could up to Texas then Ohio, and Alaska, SC coming in just a little safer on the red side. It showed a credible top end Biden outcome, but that still felt a bit weird.Mal557 said:
I'm expecting both Texas and Ohio to stay red, though Biden to make gains in both from 2016. I'm more looking at Georgia as the one to flip. I think its too soon for Texas though some of the early voting figures are indeed incredible.Nigelb said:
I think Texas might just flip.Mysticrose said:I have to say that I'm not on Ohio. I think Trump may win it. Also think he might sneak Texas but that will be about it for him.
Remarkable news from Texas: more people have voted already than the entirety of the 2016 vote.
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/10/30/us/trump-biden-election?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/10/30/democrats-plan-to-win-texas-4336440 -
Is it just me who thinks that polls shows a remarkably low Brexit split?CarlottaVance said:https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1322205182848098305?s=20
Looks like some Remain voters fell for the old fool.....0 -
Interesting thought - what would it take for humankind to lose literacy, apart from total extinction of the species?kamski said:
I think the likely ending of human civilization for a while due to global overheating, and our moronic failure to do anything about it even when we could see it coming and could easily have de-carbonised will make this pandemic a minor footnote, if people are actually writing history books in a couple of hundreds years.FrancisUrquhart said:
Thats because it was overshadowed by another minor story in history....this time, there isn't really much else going on in the West. Trump and Brexit don't match up to 100,000s dying.williamglenn said:
If the Spanish flu is anything to go by, the pandemic probably won't figure in the history books as much as it should.FrancisUrquhart said:
The history books will be filled with pointing to this decision by European leaders as unfathomable clusterfuck....and yet anybody with half a brain could see the potential risks...and was pointed out day after day on here...and what are we doing about it now, bugger all...as far as i know, no rules against going away for Christmas or skiing at Easter.Chris said:
What a good idea it was to encourage people to go on foreign holidays this Summer!CarlottaVance said:Non £-wall FT on COVID and summer madness:
https://twitter.com/FinancialTimes/status/1322191580594343937?s=20
I could see us getting to a stage where paper and ink are used very little, and then losing the social cohesion necessary to maintain the infrastructure for a wired world, in the meantime having lost the local ability to make paper. How would we maintain literacy without computers or paper and ink?0 -
Election twitter is starting to notice the whole Tump needs 230 million turnout to win thing going on in the crossbreaks. https://twitter.com/BenLankamp/status/13222089441489592350
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FPT @Nigel_Foremain
Nigel_Foremain said:
» show previous quotes
Most of these political movements are essentially a mix of socialism (with possible exception of UKIP) and nationalism, but more importantly their support base define themselves by who they are and by often not so thinly disguised disdain for the groups or nationalities that fall outside their idea of utopia. For the Faragists it is the French, Germans, foreigners in general. For the Malcolmg type Nat it is the English, and anyone who criticises the SNP is a "Little Englander", and they have no right to even discuss anything to do with the Motherland.
I have spent plenty of time in Scotland (among many countries) and have Scottish relatives. I see Scottish Nationalism for what it is. Your clear belief in Scottish exceptionalism, and inability to accept the possibility that nationalism could possibly decline does little to disabuse me of this view. I don't doubt that there are some decent people that support Scottish Nationalism, but essentially it is a malign philosophy and it will never shake off its malign history. It has been nice debating with you, but I really must go and do some work. Have a nice weekend.
You are a complete moron , I have never ever said anything against the English. A lying little toerag. It is creeps like you I dislike, pompous little prigs who try to sound superior.
You could probably not find your way to Scotland if someone tied you into the London to Glasgow Express. Off you go and collect your jobseekers allowance.0 -
No, plenty of Remainers voted LD last year or Tory as they could not stand Corbyn however are now voting Labour now Starmer has replaced him.Quincel said:
Is it just me who thinks that polls shows a remarkably low Brexit split?CarlottaVance said:https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1322205182848098305?s=20
Looks like some Remain voters fell for the old fool.....
Corbyn however was always ambivalent about the EU and plenty of hard left socialists like Galloway and Clare Fox backed Brexit0 -
He is like the invisible man, does he do any work at all.CarlottaVance said:
https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1320786610846392321?s=20Northern_Al said:
It also appears that the PM is on leave again this week, it being half term and the HoC in recess. I've not seen, or heard from, him - where is he? How many days leave does he get a year? At least as much as teachers (who thoroughly deserve it), it would appear.CarlottaVance said:0 -
Those least turned off by Corbyn's were Londoners (net -30), the young, (18-24, -17), most Southerners (-47) and elderly (65+ -58).
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No JezFest next year then....CarlottaVance said:Those least turned off by Corbyn's were Londoners (net -30), the young, (18-24, -17), most Southerners (-47) and elderly (65+ -58).
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Agree with you re: Indiana & Illinois. Though Cairo & Little Egypt really did NOT have much opportunity to join the Confederacy - thanks in part to Ulysses S. Grant who was put in change of Illinois troop at Cairo early in war.rpjs said:
I think Indiana is a lost cause for the Democrats these days, this side of a post-Trump dissolution of the GOP, which I think could only happen if Trump flees on AF1 to SVO on Jan 19th. Illinois would be as red as Indiana without Chicago. I've heard that the area around Cairo still regrets not joining the Confederacy while they had the chance.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Ohio has been trending (or rather creeping) toward the Republicans for a while. Personally think that (unfortunately) Trumpsky will hold it. UNLESS of course the polls are overestimating rather than underestimating him this year.Mysticrose said:I have to say that I'm not on Ohio. I think Trump may win it. Also think he might sneak Texas but that will be about it for him.
Remarkable news from Texas: more people have voted already than the entirety of the 2016 vote.
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/10/30/us/trump-biden-election?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage
Worth noting that the Great Lake States may seem like much of a sameness to outlanders - including most Americans - but they are more diverse and WAY more divergent among themselves, extending the length of the Ohio River AND the upper Mississippi River, from the grimy harbor of Ashtabula, Ohio on Lake Erie hard on the PA line, to the wild rice and piney woods of Frostbite (sorry, International Falls, Minnesota, to Little Egypt and Cairo, Illinois where the Ohio meets the Mississippi, much closer to Memphis than Lake Michigan.
AND that's not counting Pennsylvania, which has a small "riviera" on balmy Lake Erie, the site of the fabled city of that name - "dreary Erie on the Lake". Parts of western PA are quite Midwestern, though central and PA not so much.
Electorally for most of the 21st century (which purists know began in 2001) Illinois has been a Democratic stronghold (statewide) while Indiana has been same for the Republicans (ditto) albeit with occasional bursts of rebellion. When Dems win Indiana for president means a national blowout their way; same would be true of Illinois (once noted as a bellweather) the other way.
Always been contrary. In Civil War was notorious for copperheads = confederate sympathizers and draft riots. AND also for the Iron Brigade which was one of the best fighting outfits in the entire Union Army.
As maybe you can tell, have spent some quality time in this region, and have always found it fascinating. IF you want to know ANYTHING about America, you must know SOMETHING about the Midwest and the Great Lakes - the heartland of the nation.
Also props to visiting Point Judith light. I hope you had a chance to sample some of my wife's home town's finest seafood at George's or Champlain's or Iggy's while you were there!
Sadly, have never been to Point Judith, or anywhere in the Great Ocean State for that matter. My loss, and I mean to make up for it some day. To pay my respects to Roger Williams AND Judge Caprio the TV judge ("Caught in Providence") who would be MY personal SCOTUS nominee.1 -
Is your reading of the tea leaves, on the ground, as it were, that Trump is toast?SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Here in WA State cumulative ballot returns for this election = 88% of total 2016 ballots cast.JACK_W said:CNN - 84.5M + have early voted - Approx 62% of the entire 2016 vote.
Of course we are NOT on the battle ground for THIS election - but we ARE voting, and at a record-smashing pace.0 -
Yes, true as far as the raw & visible politics goes. BUT also a stronger, deeper cultural subtext.HYUFD said:
The difference is Democrats in America can look at any other foreign western nation and see one more left liberal than their own, so are very open to ideas from them about how to shift in that direction.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
From Brit perspective, yes.Nigelb said:
That was... the bravest thing.SeaShantyIrish2 said:"This exercise has not been repeated in subsequent Presidential elections."
Except until now . . . by Nigel Farage . . .
As far as we colonials are concerned, the folks most likely to take umbrage re: interfering foreigners are right-wingers hopped-up on hyper-nationalist bullshit = Republicans. Not all, but plenty - and they are plenty plentiful among super-MAGAists.
Democrats, especially on the progressive wing but including vast majority of moderates, tend to like foreigners just for being foreign.
So doubt that Nigel F is coming across badly on that score, even with people who despise Trumpsky & his hordes.
Strikes me that WRITTEN communication may NOT be best way for Brits to persuade Americans, at least not in short texts & emails. Because to our ears you too often come across (like Elizabeth Warren did this year) as preachy, condescending and school-marmish.
NOT totally, or hugely or (for the most part) deliberately or consciously. In fact, it has more to do with cultural differences in how Americans & Brits habitually use and misuse our native tongues.
My guess is that a similar email-text campaign directed by US enthusiasts to UK skeptics would suffer from same problem, just in reverse.
HOWEVER, my sense is that this barrier is MUCH less when it comes to the spoken word, especially when the speaker is seen (in person or on screen) as well as heard.
For Republicans however the USA is the most rightwing and conservative developed nation on the planet and they take umbrage at foreigners trying to tell them to change that0 -
I have been screaming into the void about this for what feels like a week now.Pulpstar said:Election twitter is starting to notice the whole Tump needs 230 million turnout to win thing going on in the crossbreaks. https://twitter.com/BenLankamp/status/1322208944148959235
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Those two quotes in the header could well have been from people who were going to vote for Bush II anyway. I doubt the Guardian's stunt influenced the election result. However, had Kerry won, I'm sure they'd have claimed it was because of their patronising advice.
But I think the general point is that interfering in the internal politics of another democracy rarely works. Even if you understand their politics (and how many Guardianistas really understand the mentalities of wavering Republicans?), you'll offend as many people as you convince.0 -
PA & FL - PPP - B rated :
PA - Biden 52 .. Trump 45 - 1012 LV - 28/29 Oct
FL - Biden 52 .. Trump 45 - 941 LV - 28/29 Oct
https://www.climatepower2020.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/23/2020/10/Pennsylvania-Results.pdf
https://www.climatepower2020.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/23/2020/10/Florida-Results.pdf0 -
Cummings has told him he just gets in the way.malcolmg said:
He is like the invisible man, does he do any work at all.CarlottaVance said:
https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1320786610846392321?s=20Northern_Al said:
It also appears that the PM is on leave again this week, it being half term and the HoC in recess. I've not seen, or heard from, him - where is he? How many days leave does he get a year? At least as much as teachers (who thoroughly deserve it), it would appear.CarlottaVance said:0 -
The BBC main headline has had a bit of a turn around. An hour ago, it was COVID spread is slowing according to ONS, now it is Covid spreading faster in England than 'worst-case prediction'0
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BTW, 24,405 new cases.0
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Why don't we flip this and get loads of nasty dumb Sun and Mail readers to letterbomb key states telling people to vote Trump and keep making America great again? Might help that Blue Wave along a little bit.1
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On the contary, it'll be even better as only really cool people like it, mass appeal is for sellouts.FrancisUrquhart said:
No JezFest next year then....CarlottaVance said:Those least turned off by Corbyn's were Londoners (net -30), the young, (18-24, -17), most Southerners (-47) and elderly (65+ -58).
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We passed 200 Covid deaths a day in the UK on the 22nd October. Earlier than warned by Whitty and Vallance in a worst-case scenario. If we average that level of fatality for the five month winter (Nov-Mar) it will be another 30,000 deaths.
Is that a best-case scenario for the government now?
https://mobile.twitter.com/RP131/status/1322212908739211268/photo/10 -
He was the future once...kle4 said:
On the contary, it'll be even better as only really cool people like it, mass appeal is for sellouts.FrancisUrquhart said:
No JezFest next year then....CarlottaVance said:Those least turned off by Corbyn's were Londoners (net -30), the young, (18-24, -17), most Southerners (-47) and elderly (65+ -58).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UVGFi8balOM0 -
OR could be they agree with LBJ, who would rather have his enemies inside the tent pissing out, than outside pissing in.CarlottaVance said:https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1322205182848098305?s=20
Looks like some Remain voters fell for the old fool.....0 -
He's out on the stump, campaigning!malcolmg said:
He is like the invisible man, does he do any work at all.CarlottaVance said:
https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1320786610846392321?s=20Northern_Al said:
It also appears that the PM is on leave again this week, it being half term and the HoC in recess. I've not seen, or heard from, him - where is he? How many days leave does he get a year? At least as much as teachers (who thoroughly deserve it), it would appear.CarlottaVance said:
What more do you expect from the man as the pandemic takes a dangerous turn for the worst?0 -
Did 350k tests yesterday, capacity is apparently just short of 500k now.0
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On the first quote, "... Remember the War of 1812? We didn't want you or your politics here" - in that case starting a pointless war when they were already independent but completely unprepared was a bizarre decision.1
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Just as I thought.Scott_xP said:
Quite an unfortunate turn of events for Labour just as their ratings were hitting a high.0 -
There was a touch of irony in my comment.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
From Brit perspective, yes...Nigelb said:
That was... the bravest thing.SeaShantyIrish2 said:"This exercise has not been repeated in subsequent Presidential elections."
Except until now . . . by Nigel Farage . . .
Not unconnected with Farage's oleaginous hyperbole about your leader's fearlessness.0 -
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Short-term pain for long-term gain.Scott_xP said:2 -
On topic, Brits shouldn't get involved in American elections in the same way Americans shouldn't get married to Royals.4
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deleted - duplicate post.0
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Trouble is that the 2019 Conservative coalition was always a bit of a conjouring trick. They agreed on what they didn't like (woke, experts, foreign aid, the BBC and Europhiles, with bonus points for Europhile experts saying woke things about foreign aid on the BBC) but that was as far as it went.williamglenn said:
School meals was the first issue to really separate full-fat libertarians and self-made men from the new Conservative voters, who don't mind money spent on their immediate neighbours.
Remember Boris's fundamental flaw. He is incredibly good at making people like him, because he can work out what to say to them. In this case, he's pulled two ways, which is why he's responded so slowly and badly. And his immediate circle is encouraging him towards a stingy response which his new friends in the north don't like.3 -
North Carolina - Cardinal Point Analytics/North State Journal - 750 LV - 27/28 Oct
Biden 46 .. Trump 48
https://nsjonline.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/NSJ-CPA-2020-10-29-POLL_Results.pdf
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I don't think we can trust these numbers any more, hospital admissions are going to be a better measure of viral presence than testing from now, unfortunately it runs 15-20 days behind infection.FrancisUrquhart said:BTW, 24,405 new cases.
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