Tories should be back ahead in seats on those numbers when the Electoral Commission changes kick in.
No I think Labour would have a slim lead - plus Scotland of course means Labour government with an independence referendum as a pre-condition to it.
Though a Starmer premiership would lead to a softer Brexit and would make a Yes vote far less likely anyway, today's polling has both Starmer and Sunak far more popular in Scotland than Boris, the SNP need a Boris premiership and ideally a No Deal Brexit to win but Boris will not grant indyref2 while he is PM (plus of course the hard border argument may still be enough to see Scots vote No even then)
Brexit will have already happened and the SNP will make an indyref a precondition on Starmer getting into Downing Street if they hold the balance of power.
The SNP are hardly going to put the Tories in are they, if they did that would guarantee their support nosediving in Scotland and SLab recovering quicker than Lazarus, so Starmer has that card to play too and a Starmer premiership means Scots know we are moving into a more closely aligned FTA or even back into the EEA.
Lean Tossup has no record as far as I can see in a US presidential election, Trafalgar were the only pollster to correctly forecast Trump would win Michigan and Pennsylvania in 2016 so I suggest a bit less hubris from leantossup until the results are in
The SNP don't need to vote to put the Tories in - they can just vote down any Queen's Speech or Budget without a Referendum. If the SNP hold the balance of power they will need to be bought off - no ifs or buts.
Fine, so the SNP vote down a Labour goverment and there is a general election, Labour picks up some seats from the SNP and Starmer gets his majority or just keeps having elections until he does, the SNP can never put the Tories in as they then commit suicide and hand the next election to SLab so he just has to bide his time
You're absolutely delusional if you think that if the Scots vote for the SNP the Labour Party will say "we don't care what you Scots think, we want another election instead of you having a referendum".
Especially considering Starmer has said he would respect the Scots votes. 🙄
If I were Starmer I would look for a 3 way referendum, no-change, Devo-max and full independence. I would offer it to the Nats in return for support on bringing through a simultaneous UK wide referendum on significant electoral reform. This way, if he loses Scotland seats he gains through a PR based system that would lend itself to coalition with the LDs. The LDs would like this too.
The Populist Front of Little England (aka The Party Previously Known as Conservative) will be out in the cold. For us centrist, non headbanging Tories this will probably be a good thing in the mid to long term
Nutty as Chris Williamson is, I don't share the common view held by many here that this was a good move by Starmer. If anything, I think it's been his first big mis-step since becoming leader.
Antisemitism under Corbyn was a cancer within the Labour Party.
You don't try to find a middle way of keeping a cancer within the party, you excise it. That the antisemitic Williamson wants nothing to do with Labour is progress for Starmer.
He's a real threat to win the next election.
Williamson is a loon ; but Starmer stands to lose a lot more by this action than to gain. Rather than coaxing a party with a still heavily leftwing membership in his direction, he now faces the prospect of multiple kinds of acrimony. For the sake of party unity, and also to a certain extent I think in terms of strict accuracy, he would have done better to make an example of people with objectionable views still in the party, rather than Corbyn himself, who has been largely negligent and irresponsible on this particular issue rather than a hate-monger.
After six months of Starmer ascendency, the press story is now going to shift for a while from Tory incompetence to Labour splits, and Starmer is going to lose more supporters than he gains. I would expect to see Labour dip a little in the polls and see some slippage to the Greens and others, and if I was at in the higher reaches of Labour, personally, I would be thinking of some way to steady the ship.
What should he do? Starmer makes it clear that those who minimise anti-Semitism as a problem within the party have no place in Labour. Within an hour Corbyn is saying precisely that. What possible alternative did he have apart from taking action? Keep the antisemitism festering within the party whilst looking weak himself?
I agree Corbyn is probably not anti-Semitic himself but its irrelevant to the point that he and his ongoing actions are a big part of the problem of Labour antisemitism. If he wants to stay in party all he would have to do is apologise and promise never to repeat his minimisation - but chances are he simply can't bring himself to do that.
(i) If a person says that antisemitism in Labour is overblown, that much of it is smear or oversensitivity or misunderstanding or people playing the AS card - is this a sign of an antisemite?
(ii) If a person says that racism in British society is overblown, that much of it is smear or oversensitivity or misunderstanding or people playing the race card - is this a sign of a racist?
I've been thinking about these 2 questions.
The labels really dont matter. The question for those in power is what can they do to improve the situation, not how to categorise everyone. The new policy to improve things includes saying "that antisemitism in Labour is overblown" wont be tolerated as it provides succour to the anti-Semites. His job is not to only exclude anti-Semites it is to make people of all religions feel welcome and valued in his party - that cannot be done whilst Corbyn is allowed to be vocal and public in his denial of reality.
You could be right. I'm genuinely not sure about it. If it's zero tolerance of antisemitism, I support that completely. But if it develops into zero tolerance of socialism, I'd be disappointed and would probably end my membership, although my vote is safe. My 2 questions, having thought about it, I think "probably" is the answer to both. Take your point about labeling being unhelpful - it often is - but I find such questions useful as a tool for exposing sloppy thinking and double standards on the Right. Nothing I like better than exposing sloppy thinking and double standards on the Right. Hobby.
What on earth has it got to do with socialism? John McDonnell is if anything to the left of Corbyn, is he under threat from this policy - no. Why? - because he doesnt protect antisemites within the party.
That's my question too. Will this reinvention of Labour under Starmer involve backing away from radical policies? Will he be throwing that out along with the nasty section of the Left who are prone to antisemitism? If it's just the bathwater being drained and the baby lives on, great.
FPT - Tim Davie is quite right to introduce those new BBC guidelines - they are long overdue.
The question is whether management have the appetite to ensure they are enforced.
That's bollocks (if what I read is correct - big if).
BBC employees not allowed to go on Pride marches? Why the fuck not?
That's a straw man. The guidelines say that news employees should not attend any marches or demonstrations on controversial issues. That wouldn't include a LGBT BBC employee attending a pride march in a private capacity. That would cover a BBC employee attending a political march for gender self-identification for trans rights and then publicly tweeting or being interviewed about it. Common sense.
Most employers have clauses about bringing their employer into disrepute. The BBC lives or dies on its impartiality rules and the loose social media and offline activities of a small number of BBC employees have tainted the corporation's reputation.
This is some just the faux outrage of some existing BBC employees who want to discredit the guidelines before they come in so they can continue to have their cake and eat it.
I was reading your description to see the "oh yes that makes sense" bit. But there was none.
"news employees should not attend any marches or demonstrations on controversial issues".
WTF is a controversial issue? And it says (you write): "attend" not "liveblog on behalf of the rebel alliance".
Get a grip man what possible problem would you have with Evan Davis "attending" a gay pride march?
You obviously didn't read my post very well, as I addressed your Evan Davis point in my third sentence. I also gave an example of a demonstration on a controversial issue which would be directly against existing government policy.
This looks to me like issue where you've already made your mind up, and aren't going to change it regardless of the arguments that are put to you.
But your interpretation is just that. Your interpretation. To make you feel better, presumably, otherwise even you would realise how absurd it is.
The sentence you started off with was as follows:
"news employees should not attend any marches or demonstrations on controversial issues".
And here's how it is being reported:
"In addition to strict new social media guidelines, Davie introduced a ban on the broadcaster’s news reporters taking part in “public demonstrations or gatherings about controversial issues” even when not marching under an identifiable BBC banner."
It would probably be less controversial if it exempted LGBT stuff. Politics and religion are choices people make, their sexuality and gender identity are inherent - they have no choice.
There is a disappointingly substantial subsection of people, including it seems our very own @Casino_Royale, who believe that being gay is controversial.
Lol. Thank you. I always know I've won the argument when my opponent is reduced to trying to strawman me as a bigot because they're embarrassed they were shown to be wrong and have nowhere else to go.
Happy Friday @TOPPING - try not to give yourself a coronary. It's the weekend.
You said:
a) they should not take part in controversial events; and b) they should not take part in Pride.
Ergo, sunshine, you think taking part in Pride is controversial.
You do know what Pride is, don't you?
No, I didn't. I expressly said in my first post: "that wouldn't include a LGBT BBC employee attending a pride march in a private capacity."
You have been wilfully misrepresenting my position this morning as you didn't do the research into the story first before reaching a conclusion on it, and are too embarrassed to row back.
That says a lot about you - not me.
You said that but that's not what Tim Davie said. And we are discussing the new guidelines being brought in by Tim Davie for the BBC which you say are long overdue/a good idea.
You're all over the place, pal.
Thank you - so you admit you were wrong when you said I said they should not take part in Pride, and that taking Pride is controversial. You admit that I never said any such thing. Now, you're saying that's what I said but not what Tim Davie said.
So I've been clear and consistent. You're the one that's all over the place, pal.
Dear god.
You said the measures were sensible. The measures are to disallow BBC employees in a private capacity from attending Pride.
But then as you note you also wrote: "that wouldn't include a LGBT BBC employee attending a pride march in a private capacity."
So either you didn't know what the measures were, or you did know what they were and remain all over the place.
Also, what about a straight person who wants to attend Pride? Does it become a political statement then?
Not wearing a poppy is seen as a political statement.
Only some virtues are acceptable to signal, it seems.
This continues the theme that is there for the reading. They know he has lost.
The most you could take from this as a Trump supporter would be that he is hoping to fight contended results. But it's a far cry from a victory party setup, that's the point.
Trump thought he had lost on election day 2016, he won
In the EXTREMELY unlikely event that Biden wins will you feel embarrassed?
Tories should be back ahead in seats on those numbers when the Electoral Commission changes kick in.
No I think Labour would have a slim lead - plus Scotland of course means Labour government with an independence referendum as a pre-condition to it.
Though a Starmer premiership would lead to a softer Brexit and would make a Yes vote far less likely anyway, today's polling has both Starmer and Sunak far more popular in Scotland than Boris, the SNP need a Boris premiership and ideally a No Deal Brexit to win but Boris will not grant indyref2 while he is PM (plus of course the hard border argument may still be enough to see Scots vote No even then)
Brexit will have already happened and the SNP will make an indyref a precondition on Starmer getting into Downing Street if they hold the balance of power.
The SNP are hardly going to put the Tories in are they, if they did that would guarantee their support nosediving in Scotland and SLab recovering quicker than Lazarus, so Starmer has that card to play too and a Starmer premiership means Scots know we are moving into a more closely aligned FTA or even back into the EEA.
Lean Tossup has no record as far as I can see in a US presidential election, Trafalgar were the only pollster to correctly forecast Trump would win Michigan and Pennsylvania in 2016 so I suggest a bit less hubris from leantossup until the results are in
The SNP don't need to vote to put the Tories in - they can just vote down any Queen's Speech or Budget without a Referendum. If the SNP hold the balance of power they will need to be bought off - no ifs or buts.
Fine, so the SNP vote down a Labour goverment and there is a general election, Labour picks up some seats from the SNP and Starmer gets his majority or just keeps having elections until he does, the SNP can never put the Tories in as they then commit suicide and hand the next election to SLab so he just has to bide his time
You're absolutely delusional if you think that if the Scots vote for the SNP the Labour Party will say "we don't care what you Scots think, we want another election instead of you having a referendum".
Especially considering Starmer has said he would respect the Scots votes. 🙄
If I were Starmer I would look for a 3 way referendum, no-change, Devo-max and full independence. I would offer it to the Nats in return for support on bringing through a simultaneous UK wide referendum on significant electoral reform. This way, if he loses Scotland seats he gains through a PR based system that would lend itself to coalition with the LDs. The LDs would like this too.
The Populist Front of Little England (aka The Party Previously Known as Conservative) will be out in the cold. For us centrist, non headbanging Tories this will probably be a good thing in the mid to long term
I suspect devomax would win and if PR won too then likely the Corbynite left would split off from Starmer Labour and start their own party and a new Cameroon Party would probably emerge too separate from the pro Brexit Tory Party with Farage also winning a few seats
FPT - Tim Davie is quite right to introduce those new BBC guidelines - they are long overdue.
The question is whether management have the appetite to ensure they are enforced.
That's bollocks (if what I read is correct - big if).
BBC employees not allowed to go on Pride marches? Why the fuck not?
That's a straw man. The guidelines say that news employees should not attend any marches or demonstrations on controversial issues. That wouldn't include a LGBT BBC employee attending a pride march in a private capacity. That would cover a BBC employee attending a political march for gender self-identification for trans rights and then publicly tweeting or being interviewed about it. Common sense.
Most employers have clauses about bringing their employer into disrepute. The BBC lives or dies on its impartiality rules and the loose social media and offline activities of a small number of BBC employees have tainted the corporation's reputation.
This is some just the faux outrage of some existing BBC employees who want to discredit the guidelines before they come in so they can continue to have their cake and eat it.
I was reading your description to see the "oh yes that makes sense" bit. But there was none.
"news employees should not attend any marches or demonstrations on controversial issues".
WTF is a controversial issue? And it says (you write): "attend" not "liveblog on behalf of the rebel alliance".
Get a grip man what possible problem would you have with Evan Davis "attending" a gay pride march?
You obviously didn't read my post very well, as I addressed your Evan Davis point in my third sentence. I also gave an example of a demonstration on a controversial issue which would be directly against existing government policy.
This looks to me like issue where you've already made your mind up, and aren't going to change it regardless of the arguments that are put to you.
But your interpretation is just that. Your interpretation. To make you feel better, presumably, otherwise even you would realise how absurd it is.
The sentence you started off with was as follows:
"news employees should not attend any marches or demonstrations on controversial issues".
And here's how it is being reported:
"In addition to strict new social media guidelines, Davie introduced a ban on the broadcaster’s news reporters taking part in “public demonstrations or gatherings about controversial issues” even when not marching under an identifiable BBC banner."
It would probably be less controversial if it exempted LGBT stuff. Politics and religion are choices people make, their sexuality and gender identity are inherent - they have no choice.
There is a disappointingly substantial subsection of people, including it seems our very own @Casino_Royale, who believe that being gay is controversial.
Lol. Thank you. I always know I've won the argument when my opponent is reduced to trying to strawman me as a bigot because they're embarrassed they were shown to be wrong and have nowhere else to go.
Happy Friday @TOPPING - try not to give yourself a coronary. It's the weekend.
You said:
a) they should not take part in controversial events; and b) they should not take part in Pride.
Ergo, sunshine, you think taking part in Pride is controversial.
You do know what Pride is, don't you?
No, I didn't. I expressly said in my first post: "that wouldn't include a LGBT BBC employee attending a pride march in a private capacity."
You have been wilfully misrepresenting my position this morning as you didn't do the research into the story first before reaching a conclusion on it, and are too embarrassed to row back.
That says a lot about you - not me.
You said that but that's not what Tim Davie said. And we are discussing the new guidelines being brought in by Tim Davie for the BBC which you say are long overdue/a good idea.
You're all over the place, pal.
Thank you - so you admit you were wrong when you said I said they should not take part in Pride, and that taking Pride is controversial. You admit that I never said any such thing. Now, you're saying that's what I said but not what Tim Davie said.
So I've been clear and consistent. You're the one that's all over the place, pal.
Dear god.
You said the measures were sensible. The measures are to disallow BBC employees in a private capacity from attending Pride.
But then as you note you also wrote: "that wouldn't include a LGBT BBC employee attending a pride march in a private capacity."
So either you didn't know what the measures were, or you did know what they were and remain all over the place.
No they aren't. It's very clear you haven't read the existing guidelines nor the proposed changes to them.
You were reduced to trying to misrepresent my position and dogwhistle that I was a homophobe earlier. I know that's a victory because that's going aggressive and personal is what you always do when you sense you are losing the argument.
I won't be debating this subject with you any further.
Please don't run away. I will be as gentle as I can.
I read the article you linked to. On the BBC website. It says the following: "The BBC said it had considered impartiality in the context of public expressions of opinion, taking part in campaigns and participating in marches or protests."
According to other news reports, none of them it seems definitive, this "participating in marches" includes LGBT ie Pride marches.
So god knows where you are getting your information from I would be very grateful if you could show me where as you say you are happy with, BBC employees attending Pride marches in a personal capacity would be ok.
So you have no evidence that they're including pride as a march or protest then?
Do you think that post-COVID if Liverpool organise a victory parade for last season's Premiership that would be a verboten march under these rules?
I think there are two issues. The first is any restraint on freedom of expression just because it's the BBC and, looking at the Beeb website it says "participating in marches" as an example of the thing they might be clamping down on.
But secondly, it is what "controversial" means. Because that is where the rot starts and, as @Foxy has pointed out, what is controversial under the Cons might not be controversial under Lab and vice versa.
And there is no conceivable reason on earth to hold any kind of parade whatsoever for Liverpool apart from a dissolution celebration.
It really annoyed me all those holiday makers gaming their destinations over the summer. I knew someone who booked Portugal and Spain before getting caught out by Croatia. No one needed a foreign holiday this year.
What a fantastic opportunity for the Government to genuinely promote staycations. So OK the Airlines would be in big trouble, but they are anyway, and that plague-free six week window over the summer could have done wonders for domestic tourism.
Tories should be back ahead in seats on those numbers when the Electoral Commission changes kick in.
No I think Labour would have a slim lead - plus Scotland of course means Labour government with an independence referendum as a pre-condition to it.
Though a Starmer premiership would lead to a softer Brexit and would make a Yes vote far less likely anyway, today's polling has both Starmer and Sunak far more popular in Scotland than Boris, the SNP need a Boris premiership and ideally a No Deal Brexit to win but Boris will not grant indyref2 while he is PM (plus of course the hard border argument may still be enough to see Scots vote No even then)
Brexit is well and truly over by 2024, so no soft - Brexit from Starmer, or if Len has is way RLB/ Pidcock.
You are assuming we dont get an EU extension to just post election 2024 as our Brexit trade deal. I think this is the logical political outcome, just not sure how they intend to sell it, obviously they cant call it an extension, but I think there will be a further negotiation scheduled for 2024/5 within whatever deal is agreed.
Plus, after the no-deal/skeleton-deal has been seen to hit the economy hard, Labour campaigning for EEA would most likely win.
I think all parties would be wise to leave well alone for a couple of cycles - the public are sick to the back teeth of the topic - and who knows where we'll all end up post-COVID 9let alone when)
FPT - Tim Davie is quite right to introduce those new BBC guidelines - they are long overdue.
The question is whether management have the appetite to ensure they are enforced.
That's bollocks (if what I read is correct - big if).
BBC employees not allowed to go on Pride marches? Why the fuck not?
That's a straw man. The guidelines say that news employees should not attend any marches or demonstrations on controversial issues. That wouldn't include a LGBT BBC employee attending a pride march in a private capacity. That would cover a BBC employee attending a political march for gender self-identification for trans rights and then publicly tweeting or being interviewed about it. Common sense.
Most employers have clauses about bringing their employer into disrepute. The BBC lives or dies on its impartiality rules and the loose social media and offline activities of a small number of BBC employees have tainted the corporation's reputation.
This is some just the faux outrage of some existing BBC employees who want to discredit the guidelines before they come in so they can continue to have their cake and eat it.
I was reading your description to see the "oh yes that makes sense" bit. But there was none.
"news employees should not attend any marches or demonstrations on controversial issues".
WTF is a controversial issue? And it says (you write): "attend" not "liveblog on behalf of the rebel alliance".
Get a grip man what possible problem would you have with Evan Davis "attending" a gay pride march?
You obviously didn't read my post very well, as I addressed your Evan Davis point in my third sentence. I also gave an example of a demonstration on a controversial issue which would be directly against existing government policy.
This looks to me like issue where you've already made your mind up, and aren't going to change it regardless of the arguments that are put to you.
But your interpretation is just that. Your interpretation. To make you feel better, presumably, otherwise even you would realise how absurd it is.
The sentence you started off with was as follows:
"news employees should not attend any marches or demonstrations on controversial issues".
And here's how it is being reported:
"In addition to strict new social media guidelines, Davie introduced a ban on the broadcaster’s news reporters taking part in “public demonstrations or gatherings about controversial issues” even when not marching under an identifiable BBC banner."
It would probably be less controversial if it exempted LGBT stuff. Politics and religion are choices people make, their sexuality and gender identity are inherent - they have no choice.
There is a disappointingly substantial subsection of people, including it seems our very own @Casino_Royale, who believe that being gay is controversial.
Lol. Thank you. I always know I've won the argument when my opponent is reduced to trying to strawman me as a bigot because they're embarrassed they were shown to be wrong and have nowhere else to go.
Happy Friday @TOPPING - try not to give yourself a coronary. It's the weekend.
You said:
a) they should not take part in controversial events; and b) they should not take part in Pride.
Ergo, sunshine, you think taking part in Pride is controversial.
You do know what Pride is, don't you?
No, I didn't. I expressly said in my first post: "that wouldn't include a LGBT BBC employee attending a pride march in a private capacity."
You have been wilfully misrepresenting my position this morning as you didn't do the research into the story first before reaching a conclusion on it, and are too embarrassed to row back.
That says a lot about you - not me.
You said that but that's not what Tim Davie said. And we are discussing the new guidelines being brought in by Tim Davie for the BBC which you say are long overdue/a good idea.
You're all over the place, pal.
Thank you - so you admit you were wrong when you said I said they should not take part in Pride, and that taking Pride is controversial. You admit that I never said any such thing. Now, you're saying that's what I said but not what Tim Davie said.
So I've been clear and consistent. You're the one that's all over the place, pal.
Dear god.
You said the measures were sensible. The measures are to disallow BBC employees in a private capacity from attending Pride.
But then as you note you also wrote: "that wouldn't include a LGBT BBC employee attending a pride march in a private capacity."
So either you didn't know what the measures were, or you did know what they were and remain all over the place.
Also, what about a straight person who wants to attend Pride? Does it become a political statement then?
Not wearing a poppy is seen as a political statement.
Only some virtues are acceptable to signal, it seems.
A bit like not wearing a mask, really.
Not wearing a poppy puts no one at risk, not wearing a mask does.
This continues the theme that is there for the reading. They know he has lost.
The most you could take from this as a Trump supporter would be that he is hoping to fight contended results. But it's a far cry from a victory party setup, that's the point.
Trump thought he had lost on election day 2016, he won
In the EXTREMELY unlikely event that Biden wins will you feel embarrassed?
No as I have never said Biden could not win
Strawman.
Point is, if Biden wins BIG you will have been proved to be an irrational, know nothing blowhard.
Tories should be back ahead in seats on those numbers when the Electoral Commission changes kick in.
No I think Labour would have a slim lead - plus Scotland of course means Labour government with an independence referendum as a pre-condition to it.
Though a Starmer premiership would lead to a softer Brexit and would make a Yes vote far less likely anyway, today's polling has both Starmer and Sunak far more popular in Scotland than Boris, the SNP need a Boris premiership and ideally a No Deal Brexit to win but Boris will not grant indyref2 while he is PM (plus of course the hard border argument may still be enough to see Scots vote No even then)
Brexit will have already happened and the SNP will make an indyref a precondition on Starmer getting into Downing Street if they hold the balance of power.
The SNP are hardly going to put the Tories in are they, if they did that would guarantee their support nosediving in Scotland and SLab recovering quicker than Lazarus, so Starmer has that card to play too and a Starmer premiership means Scots know we are moving into a more closely aligned FTA or even back into the EEA.
Lean Tossup has no record as far as I can see in a US presidential election, Trafalgar were the only pollster to correctly forecast Trump would win Michigan and Pennsylvania in 2016 so I suggest a bit less hubris from leantossup until the results are in
No hubris - just analysis of Cahaly's claims.
They picked up on one of Cahaly's ridiculous statements that I also drew attention to. His explanation for why he had such a huge polling miss in the Georgia Governor race is completely nonsensical if he was doing actual polling. It only makes sense if he was just pundit picking a number from the air.
This continues the theme that is there for the reading. They know he has lost.
The most you could take from this as a Trump supporter would be that he is hoping to fight contended results. But it's a far cry from a victory party setup, that's the point.
Trump thought he had lost on election day 2016, he won
In the EXTREMELY unlikely event that Biden wins will you feel embarrassed?
No as I have never said Biden could not win
You haven't lost yet. If there is humble pie to eat, that comes on Wednesday. Hopefully it will be you and not the rest of us consuming that humble pie.
This continues the theme that is there for the reading. They know he has lost.
The most you could take from this as a Trump supporter would be that he is hoping to fight contended results. But it's a far cry from a victory party setup, that's the point.
Trump thought he had lost on election day 2016, he won
In the EXTREMELY unlikely event that Biden wins will you feel embarrassed?
No as I have never said Biden could not win
Strawman.
Point is, if Biden wins BIG you will have been proved to be an irrational, know nothing blowhard.
You do accept that, one presumes?
No, otherwise I would have got GE19 wrong too, it would just mean you cannot win them all and nothing wrong with that
It really annoyed me all those holiday makers gaming their destinations over the summer. I knew someone who booked Portugal and Spain before getting caught out by Croatia. No one needed a foreign holiday this year.
What a fantastic opportunity for the Government to genuinely promote staycations. So OK the Airlines would be in big trouble, but they are anyway, and that plague-free six week window over the summer could have done wonders for domestic tourism.
I went on holiday this year (Turkey). I also went to the Cheltenham festival in March. I also go to see my 90-yr old mother regularly in her house and went this week in fact for a game of chess.
People will do what people have done. "No one needed a foreign holiday this year" is just PB privileged big house and garden bollocks.
It really annoyed me all those holiday makers gaming their destinations over the summer. I knew someone who booked Portugal and Spain before getting caught out by Croatia. No one needed a foreign holiday this year.
What a fantastic opportunity for the Government to genuinely promote staycations. So OK the Airlines would be in big trouble, but they are anyway, and that plague-free six week window over the summer could have done wonders for domestic tourism.
The history books will look back on Europes decision to have a summer holiday season as normal as unfathomable stupidity.
Tories should be back ahead in seats on those numbers when the Electoral Commission changes kick in.
No I think Labour would have a slim lead - plus Scotland of course means Labour government with an independence referendum as a pre-condition to it.
Though a Starmer premiership would lead to a softer Brexit and would make a Yes vote far less likely anyway, today's polling has both Starmer and Sunak far more popular in Scotland than Boris, the SNP need a Boris premiership and ideally a No Deal Brexit to win but Boris will not grant indyref2 while he is PM (plus of course the hard border argument may still be enough to see Scots vote No even then)
Brexit is well and truly over by 2024, so no soft - Brexit from Starmer, or if Len has is way RLB/ Pidcock.
You are assuming we dont get an EU extension to just post election 2024 as our Brexit trade deal. I think this is the logical political outcome, just not sure how they intend to sell it, obviously they cant call it an extension, but I think there will be a further negotiation scheduled for 2024/5 within whatever deal is agreed.
Plus, after the no-deal/skeleton-deal has been seen to hit the economy hard, Labour campaigning for EEA would most likely win.
I think all parties would be wise to leave well alone for a couple of cycles - the public are sick to the back teeth of the topic - and who knows where we'll all end up post-COVID 9let alone when)
This continues the theme that is there for the reading. They know he has lost.
The most you could take from this as a Trump supporter would be that he is hoping to fight contended results. But it's a far cry from a victory party setup, that's the point.
Trump thought he had lost on election day 2016, he won
In the EXTREMELY unlikely event that Biden wins will you feel embarrassed?
No as I have never said Biden could not win
You haven't lost yet. If there is humble pie to eat, that comes on Wednesday. Hopefully it will be you and not the rest of us consuming that humble pie.
Exactly, if it is a Biden landslide then yes I may have some humble pie to eat on Wednesday, however if it is still neck and neck on Wednesday morning or Trump is even ahead in the EC it will not be me eating the humble pie on here
With respect to the latest opinion poll, this is just the begining: To all the right wingers on here, you know the ones, the ones that claim to be Tories, but are actually Faragists, I TOLD YOU SO! Boris Johnson is leading the once great Conservative Party to a calamity. The incompetence and the stupid obsession with getting a harder and harder Brexit, while hoping no-one will notice, will mean the Tories will be out for a generation unless they get rid of The Clown and bring what remains of the grown-ups back in. Starmer is starting on a course that will eventually move us in a more left wing direction, and the right wingers are to blame.
It really annoyed me all those holiday makers gaming their destinations over the summer. I knew someone who booked Portugal and Spain before getting caught out by Croatia. No one needed a foreign holiday this year.
What a fantastic opportunity for the Government to genuinely promote staycations. So OK the Airlines would be in big trouble, but they are anyway, and that plague-free six week window over the summer could have done wonders for domestic tourism.
I went on holiday this year (Turkey). I also went to the Cheltenham festival in March. I also go to see my 90-yr old mother regularly in her house and went this week in fact for a game of chess.
People will do what people have done. "No one needed a foreign holiday this year" is just PB privileged big house and garden bollocks.
And look back up thread as to where that attitude has lead us.
This continues the theme that is there for the reading. They know he has lost.
The most you could take from this as a Trump supporter would be that he is hoping to fight contended results. But it's a far cry from a victory party setup, that's the point.
Trump thought he had lost on election day 2016, he won
In the EXTREMELY unlikely event that Biden wins will you feel embarrassed?
No as I have never said Biden could not win
Strawman.
Point is, if Biden wins BIG you will have been proved to be an irrational, know nothing blowhard.
You do accept that, one presumes?
And if Trump wins BIG, Kinabalu, you will have been proved to be an irrational, know nothing blowhard.
This continues the theme that is there for the reading. They know he has lost.
The most you could take from this as a Trump supporter would be that he is hoping to fight contended results. But it's a far cry from a victory party setup, that's the point.
Trump thought he had lost on election day 2016, he won
In the EXTREMELY unlikely event that Biden wins will you feel embarrassed?
No as I have never said Biden could not win
Yet you have derided people who predict Biden will win but acknowledge Trump has a chance as just covering their backs.
This continues the theme that is there for the reading. They know he has lost.
The most you could take from this as a Trump supporter would be that he is hoping to fight contended results. But it's a far cry from a victory party setup, that's the point.
Trump thought he had lost on election day 2016, he won
In the EXTREMELY unlikely event that Biden wins will you feel embarrassed?
No as I have never said Biden could not win
You haven't lost yet. If there is humble pie to eat, that comes on Wednesday. Hopefully it will be you and not the rest of us consuming that humble pie.
Exactly, if it is a Biden landslide then yes I may have some humble pie to eat on Wednesday, however if it is still neck and neck on Wednesday morning or Trump is even ahead in the EC it will not be me eating the humble pie on here
I think you should be eating humble pie regardless of the result. That may sound an odd comment but your cherry picking of which polls you latch onto, invariably from highly dubious source material, discredits you.
If you came out with even a modicum of a sensible argument: 'I believe Trump will win because of X, Y and Z and the polls are incorrect therefore because of A, B and C,' I'd have respect for you. But you don't.
It really annoyed me all those holiday makers gaming their destinations over the summer. I knew someone who booked Portugal and Spain before getting caught out by Croatia. No one needed a foreign holiday this year.
What a fantastic opportunity for the Government to genuinely promote staycations. So OK the Airlines would be in big trouble, but they are anyway, and that plague-free six week window over the summer could have done wonders for domestic tourism.
I went on holiday this year (Turkey). I also went to the Cheltenham festival in March. I also go to see my 90-yr old mother regularly in her house and went this week in fact for a game of chess.
People will do what people have done. "No one needed a foreign holiday this year" is just PB privileged big house and garden bollocks.
And look back up thread as to where that attitude has lead us.
So you are saying that the reason we are having a second wave of Covid is because people went on holiday this year? That article linked above makes just as many assumptions as it supposedly demolishes.
Tories should be back ahead in seats on those numbers when the Electoral Commission changes kick in.
No I think Labour would have a slim lead - plus Scotland of course means Labour government with an independence referendum as a pre-condition to it.
Though a Starmer premiership would lead to a softer Brexit and would make a Yes vote far less likely anyway, today's polling has both Starmer and Sunak far more popular in Scotland than Boris, the SNP need a Boris premiership and ideally a No Deal Brexit to win but Boris will not grant indyref2 while he is PM (plus of course the hard border argument may still be enough to see Scots vote No even then)
Brexit will have already happened and the SNP will make an indyref a precondition on Starmer getting into Downing Street if they hold the balance of power.
The SNP are hardly going to put the Tories in are they, if they did that would guarantee their support nosediving in Scotland and SLab recovering quicker than Lazarus, so Starmer has that card to play too and a Starmer premiership means Scots know we are moving into a more closely aligned FTA or even back into the EEA.
Lean Tossup has no record as far as I can see in a US presidential election, Trafalgar were the only pollster to correctly forecast Trump would win Michigan and Pennsylvania in 2016 so I suggest a bit less hubris from leantossup until the results are in
No hubris - just analysis of Cahaly's claims.
They picked up on one of Cahaly's ridiculous statements that I also drew attention to. His explanation for why he had such a huge polling miss in the Georgia Governor race is completely nonsensical if he was doing actual polling. It only makes sense if he was just pundit picking a number from the air.
Some of the misses of the pollsters you rely on were just as big in 2016 and yet strangely you give them a pass.
Do you really think these pollsters are in touch with republican America, what its doing and what it is thinking? because I really, really don't.
This continues the theme that is there for the reading. They know he has lost.
The most you could take from this as a Trump supporter would be that he is hoping to fight contended results. But it's a far cry from a victory party setup, that's the point.
Trump thought he had lost on election day 2016, he won
In the EXTREMELY unlikely event that Biden wins will you feel embarrassed?
No as I have never said Biden could not win
You haven't lost yet. If there is humble pie to eat, that comes on Wednesday. Hopefully it will be you and not the rest of us consuming that humble pie.
Exactly, if it is a Biden landslide then yes I may have some humble pie to eat on Wednesday, however if it is still neck and neck on Wednesday morning or Trump is even ahead in the EC it will not be me eating the humble pie on here
I think it would be quite funny if labour won the next election.
A labour chief Secretary to the treasury being left a 'there is no money left' note.
A labour chancellor having to put the UK on the austerity program from hell to fulfil the IMF's bankruptcy bailout conditions.
Hilarious. And far from out of the question.
I really feel that note is a great example of unfair political mythology, it's taken on a life of it's own which is completely misleading. Liam Byrne didn't write "There is no money left", he wrote "I'm afraid there is no money.", the word 'left' is key to the story and wasn't there. And he wasn't making an admission of mismanagement he was making a joke about how being in government the other departments always want you to spend more than you are willing to. Whatever the merits or otherwise of Labour's fiscal policy from 1997-2010, Liam Bryne's misplaced sense of humour should not be misinterpreted to denounce it.
This continues the theme that is there for the reading. They know he has lost.
The most you could take from this as a Trump supporter would be that he is hoping to fight contended results. But it's a far cry from a victory party setup, that's the point.
Trump thought he had lost on election day 2016, he won
In the EXTREMELY unlikely event that Biden wins will you feel embarrassed?
No as I have never said Biden could not win
Strawman.
Point is, if Biden wins BIG you will have been proved to be an irrational, know nothing blowhard.
You do accept that, one presumes?
No, otherwise I would have got GE19 wrong too, it would just mean you cannot win them all and nothing wrong with that
No you see this is, forgive me, complete rubbish.
Even a broken clock tells the right time twice a day. And that, I'm afraid, sums up your method.
Tories should be back ahead in seats on those numbers when the Electoral Commission changes kick in.
No I think Labour would have a slim lead - plus Scotland of course means Labour government with an independence referendum as a pre-condition to it.
Though a Starmer premiership would lead to a softer Brexit and would make a Yes vote far less likely anyway, today's polling has both Starmer and Sunak far more popular in Scotland than Boris, the SNP need a Boris premiership and ideally a No Deal Brexit to win but Boris will not grant indyref2 while he is PM (plus of course the hard border argument may still be enough to see Scots vote No even then)
Brexit will have already happened and the SNP will make an indyref a precondition on Starmer getting into Downing Street if they hold the balance of power.
a) Picking the winner but having a large error compared to someone who gets the loser but by a smaller error - who was the best pollster?
b) Picking criteria for sampling on what they believe to be key factors (personal opinion) is very dodgy rather than selecting by factual differences (age, sex, education, etc)
If I had to pick a pollster I will go for the one who got it wrong last time but uses maths and logic rather than one who got it right last time but uses voodoo.
It really annoyed me all those holiday makers gaming their destinations over the summer. I knew someone who booked Portugal and Spain before getting caught out by Croatia. No one needed a foreign holiday this year.
What a fantastic opportunity for the Government to genuinely promote staycations. So OK the Airlines would be in big trouble, but they are anyway, and that plague-free six week window over the summer could have done wonders for domestic tourism.
I went on holiday this year (Turkey). I also went to the Cheltenham festival in March. I also go to see my 90-yr old mother regularly in her house and went this week in fact for a game of chess.
People will do what people have done. "No one needed a foreign holiday this year" is just PB privileged big house and garden bollocks.
We haven't been on holiday ourselves, but we've relations the same age who have; not 'abroad' though. 'Only' Scotland and Wales. However, they live in a flat. Close to a town. We live in a small town, and have a small garden. We can easily go for walks in some very nice countryside (Yes, Mr E, there's plenty of such in Essex). Sit by the river and watch the waterfowl. Etc. And we're visited by, and have visited younger relatives. Usually, but not always (it rained once) in the garden. So we haven't gone 'away', but we can understand people who do!
If people coming back from foreign holidays was mostly to blame you would expect the poorest areas of the UK to be least affected, but it seems to be the opposite.
London and the SE are doing ok and several of the most deprived Northern towns like Rochdale and Oldham have a high number of cases.
It really annoyed me all those holiday makers gaming their destinations over the summer. I knew someone who booked Portugal and Spain before getting caught out by Croatia. No one needed a foreign holiday this year.
What a fantastic opportunity for the Government to genuinely promote staycations. So OK the Airlines would be in big trouble, but they are anyway, and that plague-free six week window over the summer could have done wonders for domestic tourism.
I went on holiday this year (Turkey). I also went to the Cheltenham festival in March. I also go to see my 90-yr old mother regularly in her house and went this week in fact for a game of chess.
People will do what people have done. "No one needed a foreign holiday this year" is just PB privileged big house and garden bollocks.
And look back up thread as to where that attitude has lead us.
So you are saying that the reason we are having a second wave of Covid is because people went on holiday this year? That article linked above makes just as many assumptions as it supposedly demolishes.
It really annoyed me all those holiday makers gaming their destinations over the summer. I knew someone who booked Portugal and Spain before getting caught out by Croatia. No one needed a foreign holiday this year.
What a fantastic opportunity for the Government to genuinely promote staycations. So OK the Airlines would be in big trouble, but they are anyway, and that plague-free six week window over the summer could have done wonders for domestic tourism.
Couldn't move down here in Pembrokeshire over the summer. Dont want any more bloody grockels. Ps I do agree that people should have been stopped from travelling abroad this year. Foreign travel undoubtedly caused much of our virus spread.
With respect to the latest opinion poll, this is just the begining: To all the right wingers on here, you know the ones, the ones that claim to be Tories, but are actually Faragists, I TOLD YOU SO! Boris Johnson is leading the once great Conservative Party to a calamity. The incompetence and the stupid obsession with getting a harder and harder Brexit, while hoping no-one will notice, will mean the Tories will be out for a generation unless they get rid of The Clown and bring what remains of the grown-ups back in. Starmer is starting on a course that will eventually move us in a more left wing direction, and the right wingers are to blame.
Tory voters aren;t deserting the tories because of brexit. It is the one thing that is keeping so many of them onside.
Boris's tories have junked every single tory principle in the book in the soace of nine months in a cause that many conservatives find at least questionable. At least.
If people coming back from foreign holidays was mostly to blame you would expect the poorest areas of the UK to be least affected, but it seems to be the opposite.
London and the SE are doing ok and several of the most deprived Northern towns like Rochdale and Oldham have a high number of cases.
You think people from Oldham and Rochdale don't go to Ibiza? 🤔
This continues the theme that is there for the reading. They know he has lost.
The most you could take from this as a Trump supporter would be that he is hoping to fight contended results. But it's a far cry from a victory party setup, that's the point.
Trump thought he had lost on election day 2016, he won
In the EXTREMELY unlikely event that Biden wins will you feel embarrassed?
No as I have never said Biden could not win
Strawman.
Point is, if Biden wins BIG you will have been proved to be an irrational, know nothing blowhard.
You do accept that, one presumes?
No, otherwise I would have got GE19 wrong too, it would just mean you cannot win them all and nothing wrong with that
No you see this is, forgive me, complete rubbish.
Even a broken clock tells the right time twice a day. And that, I'm afraid, sums up your method.
You do realise that HYUFD might get the right result and it will be even harder trying to tell him his methodology (go with the one that got it right last time) is bollocks.
Just warming up those dice once more to prove if I throw a 6 and then a 6 again that I will always throw a 6.
With respect to the latest opinion poll, this is just the begining: To all the right wingers on here, you know the ones, the ones that claim to be Tories, but are actually Faragists, I TOLD YOU SO! Boris Johnson is leading the once great Conservative Party to a calamity. The incompetence and the stupid obsession with getting a harder and harder Brexit, while hoping no-one will notice, will mean the Tories will be out for a generation unless they get rid of The Clown and bring what remains of the grown-ups back in. Starmer is starting on a course that will eventually move us in a more left wing direction, and the right wingers are to blame.
Tory voters aren;t deserting the tories because of brexit. It is the one thing that is keeping so many of them onside.
Boris's tories have junked every single tory principle in the book in the soace of nine months in a cause that many conservatives find at least questionable. At least.
So what will happen when Brexit loses its ability to attract those voters to the Tories?
This continues the theme that is there for the reading. They know he has lost.
The most you could take from this as a Trump supporter would be that he is hoping to fight contended results. But it's a far cry from a victory party setup, that's the point.
Trump thought he had lost on election day 2016, he won
In the EXTREMELY unlikely event that Biden wins will you feel embarrassed?
No as I have never said Biden could not win
Strawman.
Point is, if Biden wins BIG you will have been proved to be an irrational, know nothing blowhard.
You do accept that, one presumes?
No, otherwise I would have got GE19 wrong too, it would just mean you cannot win them all and nothing wrong with that
No you see this is, forgive me, complete rubbish.
Even a broken clock tells the right time twice a day. And that, I'm afraid, sums up your method.
Even a broken clock is right twice a day sums up the attitude of every poster who backed labour in 2010, Miliband in 2015, remain in 2016, and a hung parliament in 2019. And Scottish independence.
And I believe there are many well respected posters on this site behind all those.
YOu have zero right to try to silence a poster on one polling miss that has not even happened yet.
Tories should be back ahead in seats on those numbers when the Electoral Commission changes kick in.
No I think Labour would have a slim lead - plus Scotland of course means Labour government with an independence referendum as a pre-condition to it.
Though a Starmer premiership would lead to a softer Brexit and would make a Yes vote far less likely anyway, today's polling has both Starmer and Sunak far more popular in Scotland than Boris, the SNP need a Boris premiership and ideally a No Deal Brexit to win but Boris will not grant indyref2 while he is PM (plus of course the hard border argument may still be enough to see Scots vote No even then)
Brexit will have already happened and the SNP will make an indyref a precondition on Starmer getting into Downing Street if they hold the balance of power.
The SNP are hardly going to put the Tories in are they, if they did that would guarantee their support nosediving in Scotland and SLab recovering quicker than Lazarus, so Starmer has that card to play too and a Starmer premiership means Scots know we are moving into a more closely aligned FTA or even back into the EEA.
Lean Tossup has no record as far as I can see in a US presidential election, Trafalgar were the only pollster to correctly forecast Trump would win Michigan and Pennsylvania in 2016 so I suggest a bit less hubris from leantossup until the results are in
No hubris - just analysis of Cahaly's claims.
They picked up on one of Cahaly's ridiculous statements that I also drew attention to. His explanation for why he had such a huge polling miss in the Georgia Governor race is completely nonsensical if he was doing actual polling. It only makes sense if he was just pundit picking a number from the air.
Some of the misses of the pollsters you rely on were just as big in 2016 and yet strangely you give them a pass.
Do you really think these pollsters are in touch with republican America, what its doing and what it is thinking? because I really, really don't.
The real pollsters got wrong predictions because they failed at their sampling and weighting in 2016. Cahaly got it wrong in 2018 because he made the number up.
This continues the theme that is there for the reading. They know he has lost.
The most you could take from this as a Trump supporter would be that he is hoping to fight contended results. But it's a far cry from a victory party setup, that's the point.
Trump thought he had lost on election day 2016, he won
In the EXTREMELY unlikely event that Biden wins will you feel embarrassed?
No as I have never said Biden could not win
Strawman.
Point is, if Biden wins BIG you will have been proved to be an irrational, know nothing blowhard.
You do accept that, one presumes?
No, otherwise I would have got GE19 wrong too, it would just mean you cannot win them all and nothing wrong with that
No you see this is, forgive me, complete rubbish.
Even a broken clock tells the right time twice a day. And that, I'm afraid, sums up your method.
Having called Boris PM and GE19 right if Trump narrowly wins the EC even if Biden wins the popular vote I will probably be one of the if not the most accurate election forecasters on here at the moment
This continues the theme that is there for the reading. They know he has lost.
The most you could take from this as a Trump supporter would be that he is hoping to fight contended results. But it's a far cry from a victory party setup, that's the point.
Trump thought he had lost on election day 2016, he won
In the EXTREMELY unlikely event that Biden wins will you feel embarrassed?
No as I have never said Biden could not win
Strawman.
Point is, if Biden wins BIG you will have been proved to be an irrational, know nothing blowhard.
You do accept that, one presumes?
No, otherwise I would have got GE19 wrong too, it would just mean you cannot win them all and nothing wrong with that
You were Ok on GE19, predicting "solid but not spectacular working majority", but no more than that. Where you banked the big cred was calling "Boris" as next Tory leader way before anybody else. That was top top punditry.
But it's all at risk now. It's like this, contrasting you with your 'close Trump win' vs me with my longtime 'big Trump loss' -
Close Trump win. Glory for you. Can't see my face for egg.
Close Biden win. Close but no cigar for both of us. We shrug and move on.
Big Biden win. Glory for me. Can't see YOUR face for egg. Your "Boris" cred all spent.
It really annoyed me all those holiday makers gaming their destinations over the summer. I knew someone who booked Portugal and Spain before getting caught out by Croatia. No one needed a foreign holiday this year.
What a fantastic opportunity for the Government to genuinely promote staycations. So OK the Airlines would be in big trouble, but they are anyway, and that plague-free six week window over the summer could have done wonders for domestic tourism.
I went on holiday this year (Turkey). I also went to the Cheltenham festival in March. I also go to see my 90-yr old mother regularly in her house and went this week in fact for a game of chess.
People will do what people have done. "No one needed a foreign holiday this year" is just PB privileged big house and garden bollocks.
And look back up thread as to where that attitude has lead us.
So you are saying that the reason we are having a second wave of Covid is because people went on holiday this year? That article linked above makes just as many assumptions as it supposedly demolishes.
It looks to be a contributing factor, yes.
I agree it is all a contributing factor. But like Cheltenham while the Central Line was running, to single out one above all others is not as helpful. A global pandemic is just that.
With respect to the latest opinion poll, this is just the begining: To all the right wingers on here, you know the ones, the ones that claim to be Tories, but are actually Faragists, I TOLD YOU SO! Boris Johnson is leading the once great Conservative Party to a calamity. The incompetence and the stupid obsession with getting a harder and harder Brexit, while hoping no-one will notice, will mean the Tories will be out for a generation unless they get rid of The Clown and bring what remains of the grown-ups back in. Starmer is starting on a course that will eventually move us in a more left wing direction, and the right wingers are to blame.
Tory voters aren;t deserting the tories because of brexit. It is the one thing that is keeping so many of them onside.
Boris's tories have junked every single tory principle in the book in the soace of nine months in a cause that many conservatives find at least questionable. At least.
So what will happen when Brexit loses its ability to attract those voters to the Tories?
This continues the theme that is there for the reading. They know he has lost.
The most you could take from this as a Trump supporter would be that he is hoping to fight contended results. But it's a far cry from a victory party setup, that's the point.
Trump thought he had lost on election day 2016, he won
In the EXTREMELY unlikely event that Biden wins will you feel embarrassed?
No as I have never said Biden could not win
And the guy you accused of hubris said much the same of Trump.
The idiotic out of touch refusal to back Marcus Rashford 100% was wrong on so many levels
I said at the time that I would have voted with the 5 other conservatives who voted with Labour to back Marcus
I am pleased Starmer has suspended Corbyn and to be honest he is looking good for 2024 unless the conservatives wake up to just how bad Boris has been
Rashford could be a defining moment for the Tories. Fortunately, they have Jeremy and Len on hand to help them out.
I really do think you are right
The damage in the polls was inevitable once you were perceived to turn down poor children's meals, not least as Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland agreed to provide them
I am not sure Corbyn and Len will damage Starmer as long as he hold the line and keeps them away from the labour party
Personally it makes me much more relaxed at the increasing likelihood of a labour government in 2024
The idiotic out of touch refusal to back Marcus Rashford 100% was wrong on so many levels
I said at the time that I would have voted with the 5 other conservatives who voted with Labour to back Marcus
I am pleased Starmer has suspended Corbyn and to be honest he is looking good for 2024 unless the conservatives wake up to just how bad Boris has been
Rashford could be a defining moment for the Tories. Fortunately, they have Jeremy and Len on hand to help them out.
I'm not sure that chucking JC out will be bad for Labour's public image. Especially given the reason. Hungry children over Christmas won't exactly be a vote winner for Boris, either!
70-80% of my betting over the last decade has been successful. Probably closer to the lower figure than the higher.
When I get it wrong (GE 2019) I fess up and try to learn from my mistakes. What did I misread? Where did I go wrong in the methodology?
Almost always it comes down to a mixture of 1. allowing my heart to rule my head 2. failing to pay close attention to the details on the ground and 3. normalcy bias: believing that people will behave in the future as they have done in the past.
It really annoyed me all those holiday makers gaming their destinations over the summer. I knew someone who booked Portugal and Spain before getting caught out by Croatia. No one needed a foreign holiday this year.
What a fantastic opportunity for the Government to genuinely promote staycations. So OK the Airlines would be in big trouble, but they are anyway, and that plague-free six week window over the summer could have done wonders for domestic tourism.
I went on holiday this year (Turkey). I also went to the Cheltenham festival in March. I also go to see my 90-yr old mother regularly in her house and went this week in fact for a game of chess.
People will do what people have done. "No one needed a foreign holiday this year" is just PB privileged big house and garden bollocks.
And look back up thread as to where that attitude has lead us.
So you are saying that the reason we are having a second wave of Covid is because people went on holiday this year? That article linked above makes just as many assumptions as it supposedly demolishes.
It looks to be a contributing factor, yes.
I agree it is all a contributing factor. But like Cheltenham while the Central Line was running, to single out one above all others is not as helpful. A global pandemic is just that.
No, they aren't saying it is a contributing factor, they are saying it is directly responsible for a huge proportion of UK cases, which is totally different from suggestions that Cheltenham (still unproven) was an event that lead to some extra cases that wouldn't have occurred otherwise.
On the two UK polls today - for me the Tory drop into the 30s is more significant than the Labour leads (nice to see as they are). It's happening more frequently now.
I completely disagree.
We saw in 2019 that the Tory share can crater by losing votes to a Farage ego-vehicle, and there have been tiny signs of something similar in recent months. That does Labour very little good at all.
An apparent swing of votes from Tory to Labour is much more significant.
Tories should be back ahead in seats on those numbers when the Electoral Commission changes kick in.
No I think Labour would have a slim lead - plus Scotland of course means Labour government with an independence referendum as a pre-condition to it.
Though a Starmer premiership would lead to a softer Brexit and would make a Yes vote far less likely anyway, today's polling has both Starmer and Sunak far more popular in Scotland than Boris, the SNP need a Boris premiership and ideally a No Deal Brexit to win but Boris will not grant indyref2 while he is PM (plus of course the hard border argument may still be enough to see Scots vote No even then)
Brexit will have already happened and the SNP will make an indyref a precondition on Starmer getting into Downing Street if they hold the balance of power.
The SNP are hardly going to put the Tories in are they, if they did that would guarantee their support nosediving in Scotland and SLab recovering quicker than Lazarus, so Starmer has that card to play too and a Starmer premiership means Scots know we are moving into a more closely aligned FTA or even back into the EEA.
Lean Tossup has no record as far as I can see in a US presidential election, Trafalgar were the only pollster to correctly forecast Trump would win Michigan and Pennsylvania in 2016 so I suggest a bit less hubris from leantossup until the results are in
The SNP don't need to vote to put the Tories in - they can just vote down any Queen's Speech or Budget without a Referendum. If the SNP hold the balance of power they will need to be bought off - no ifs or buts.
Fine, so the SNP vote down a Labour goverment and there is a general election, Labour picks up some seats from the SNP and Starmer gets his majority or just keeps having elections until he does, the SNP can never put the Tories in as they then commit suicide and hand the next election to SLab so he just has to bide his time
You're absolutely delusional if you think that if the Scots vote for the SNP the Labour Party will say "we don't care what you Scots think, we want another election instead of you having a referendum".
Especially considering Starmer has said he would respect the Scots votes. 🙄
If I were Starmer I would look for a 3 way referendum, no-change, Devo-max and full independence. I would offer it to the Nats in return for support on bringing through a simultaneous UK wide referendum on significant electoral reform. This way, if he loses Scotland seats he gains through a PR based system that would lend itself to coalition with the LDs. The LDs would like this too.
The Populist Front of Little England (aka The Party Previously Known as Conservative) will be out in the cold. For us centrist, non headbanging Tories this will probably be a good thing in the mid to long term
I suspect devomax would win and if PR won too then likely the Corbynite left would split off from Starmer Labour and start their own party and a new Cameroon Party would probably emerge too separate from the pro Brexit Tory Party with Farage also winning a few seats
I think that is a possibility, and certainly will be a consideration. It will depend on the version of PR offered. I think also that loyalty to parties is quite deep, so it would take quite a lot, even under PR for a significant realignment. The extremes are more likely to peel off because they are people who by nature feel less comfortable with compromise. There are a lot of people in todays Tory Party who would peel of to a Faragist party, and a number in Labour who would join a full fat socialist outfit if they thought they could keep their seats.
This continues the theme that is there for the reading. They know he has lost.
The most you could take from this as a Trump supporter would be that he is hoping to fight contended results. But it's a far cry from a victory party setup, that's the point.
Trump thought he had lost on election day 2016, he won
And?
Are you capable of putting together a coherent sentence other than just 'And' like a toddler?
The point is virtually all the pollsters and even the Trump campaign thought Hillary had won in 2016 until the returns from the rustbelt came in
That doesn't mean it will be the case this time though.
It really annoyed me all those holiday makers gaming their destinations over the summer. I knew someone who booked Portugal and Spain before getting caught out by Croatia. No one needed a foreign holiday this year.
What a fantastic opportunity for the Government to genuinely promote staycations. So OK the Airlines would be in big trouble, but they are anyway, and that plague-free six week window over the summer could have done wonders for domestic tourism.
The history books will look back on Europes decision to have a summer holiday season as normal as unfathomable stupidity.
I think the bigger mistake was not restricting travel in February, or end of January. Taiwan introduced restrictions on arrivals in December.
This continues the theme that is there for the reading. They know he has lost.
The most you could take from this as a Trump supporter would be that he is hoping to fight contended results. But it's a far cry from a victory party setup, that's the point.
Trump thought he had lost on election day 2016, he won
In the EXTREMELY unlikely event that Biden wins will you feel embarrassed?
No as I have never said Biden could not win
Strawman.
Point is, if Biden wins BIG you will have been proved to be an irrational, know nothing blowhard.
You do accept that, one presumes?
No, otherwise I would have got GE19 wrong too, it would just mean you cannot win them all and nothing wrong with that
No you see this is, forgive me, complete rubbish.
Even a broken clock tells the right time twice a day. And that, I'm afraid, sums up your method.
Having called Boris PM and GE19 right if Trump narrowly wins the EC even if Biden wins the popular vote I will probably be one of the if not the most accurate election forecasters on here at the moment
It really annoyed me all those holiday makers gaming their destinations over the summer. I knew someone who booked Portugal and Spain before getting caught out by Croatia. No one needed a foreign holiday this year.
What a fantastic opportunity for the Government to genuinely promote staycations. So OK the Airlines would be in big trouble, but they are anyway, and that plague-free six week window over the summer could have done wonders for domestic tourism.
I went on holiday this year (Turkey). I also went to the Cheltenham festival in March. I also go to see my 90-yr old mother regularly in her house and went this week in fact for a game of chess.
People will do what people have done. "No one needed a foreign holiday this year" is just PB privileged big house and garden bollocks.
And look back up thread as to where that attitude has lead us.
So you are saying that the reason we are having a second wave of Covid is because people went on holiday this year? That article linked above makes just as many assumptions as it supposedly demolishes.
Has anyone done an analysis of viral genomes (ie genetic markers) comparable to that work on Wales? It showed that a significant proportion of outbreaks earlier this summer were actually imported from England (so far as they could tell), rather than simply bubbling up from endemic low level infection. That would be conclusive, not least because if the virus strains hadn't been imported then they wouldn't have caused the outbreaks.
This continues the theme that is there for the reading. They know he has lost.
The most you could take from this as a Trump supporter would be that he is hoping to fight contended results. But it's a far cry from a victory party setup, that's the point.
Trump thought he had lost on election day 2016, he won
In the EXTREMELY unlikely event that Biden wins will you feel embarrassed?
No as I have never said Biden could not win
Strawman.
Point is, if Biden wins BIG you will have been proved to be an irrational, know nothing blowhard.
You do accept that, one presumes?
And if Trump wins BIG, Kinabalu, you will have been proved to be an irrational, know nothing blowhard.
You accept THAT, one presumes.
If Trump wins at all, let alone big, it will shake me to the very core. I will lose faith in both my judgment and the future.
This continues the theme that is there for the reading. They know he has lost.
The most you could take from this as a Trump supporter would be that he is hoping to fight contended results. But it's a far cry from a victory party setup, that's the point.
Trump thought he had lost on election day 2016, he won
In the EXTREMELY unlikely event that Biden wins will you feel embarrassed?
It really annoyed me all those holiday makers gaming their destinations over the summer. I knew someone who booked Portugal and Spain before getting caught out by Croatia. No one needed a foreign holiday this year.
What a fantastic opportunity for the Government to genuinely promote staycations. So OK the Airlines would be in big trouble, but they are anyway, and that plague-free six week window over the summer could have done wonders for domestic tourism.
The history books will look back on Europes decision to have a summer holiday season as normal as unfathomable stupidity.
I think the bigger mistake was not restricting travel in February, or end of January. Taiwan introduced restrictions on arrivals in December.
Well, I think one could say that was a mistake, but with some mitigating factors i.e. not fully understanding the situation, especially that it was much more widespread in Italy. But to repeat that mistake, knowing what we know now, is unforgivable.
Tories should be back ahead in seats on those numbers when the Electoral Commission changes kick in.
No I think Labour would have a slim lead - plus Scotland of course means Labour government with an independence referendum as a pre-condition to it.
Though a Starmer premiership would lead to a softer Brexit and would make a Yes vote far less likely anyway, today's polling has both Starmer and Sunak far more popular in Scotland than Boris, the SNP need a Boris premiership and ideally a No Deal Brexit to win but Boris will not grant indyref2 while he is PM (plus of course the hard border argument may still be enough to see Scots vote No even then)
Brexit will have already happened and the SNP will make an indyref a precondition on Starmer getting into Downing Street if they hold the balance of power.
The SNP are hardly going to put the Tories in are they, if they did that would guarantee their support nosediving in Scotland and SLab recovering quicker than Lazarus, so Starmer has that card to play too and a Starmer premiership means Scots know we are moving into a more closely aligned FTA or even back into the EEA.
Lean Tossup has no record as far as I can see in a US presidential election, Trafalgar were the only pollster to correctly forecast Trump would win Michigan and Pennsylvania in 2016 so I suggest a bit less hubris from leantossup until the results are in
No hubris - just analysis of Cahaly's claims.
They picked up on one of Cahaly's ridiculous statements that I also drew attention to. His explanation for why he had such a huge polling miss in the Georgia Governor race is completely nonsensical if he was doing actual polling. It only makes sense if he was just pundit picking a number from the air.
The Politico article was similar - he refused even to consider the proposition that there might be shy Biden voters. And it's very clear indeed (in Midwest states, for example) that there are. A pollster who honestly searches for the unexamined doesn't dismiss a possibility like that.
He a persuasive rhetorician, and possibly as good a pundit as anyone else (allowing for biases). What he is not is a pollster.
Kapteyn was notably more honest on this point, too: ... In that sense, we are at opposite ends of the spectrum. We [USC’s Dornsife Center for Economic and Social Research] are not a polling firm; we’re a research firm. We happen to have this Internet panel where we ask people all sorts of questions, so why not also ask them about politics? For us, this is largely an experiment. That’s why we ask about this in different way: We want to see what works best...
This continues the theme that is there for the reading. They know he has lost.
The most you could take from this as a Trump supporter would be that he is hoping to fight contended results. But it's a far cry from a victory party setup, that's the point.
Trump thought he had lost on election day 2016, he won
In the EXTREMELY unlikely event that Biden wins will you feel embarrassed?
No as I have never said Biden could not win
Strawman.
Point is, if Biden wins BIG you will have been proved to be an irrational, know nothing blowhard.
You do accept that, one presumes?
No, otherwise I would have got GE19 wrong too, it would just mean you cannot win them all and nothing wrong with that
No you see this is, forgive me, complete rubbish.
Even a broken clock tells the right time twice a day. And that, I'm afraid, sums up your method.
Having called Boris PM and GE19 right if Trump narrowly wins the EC even if Biden wins the popular vote I will probably be one of the if not the most accurate election forecasters on here at the moment
So half the figure of REACT. 50k seems more inline with the data on rate of increase in hospital admissions etc than the 100k figure (which is what the peak in March / April was supposed to be).
It really annoyed me all those holiday makers gaming their destinations over the summer. I knew someone who booked Portugal and Spain before getting caught out by Croatia. No one needed a foreign holiday this year.
What a fantastic opportunity for the Government to genuinely promote staycations. So OK the Airlines would be in big trouble, but they are anyway, and that plague-free six week window over the summer could have done wonders for domestic tourism.
I went on holiday this year (Turkey). I also went to the Cheltenham festival in March. I also go to see my 90-yr old mother regularly in her house and went this week in fact for a game of chess.
People will do what people have done. "No one needed a foreign holiday this year" is just PB privileged big house and garden bollocks.
And look back up thread as to where that attitude has lead us.
So you are saying that the reason we are having a second wave of Covid is because people went on holiday this year? That article linked above makes just as many assumptions as it supposedly demolishes.
It looks to be a contributing factor, yes.
I agree it is all a contributing factor. But like Cheltenham while the Central Line was running, to single out one above all others is not as helpful. A global pandemic is just that.
No, they aren't saying it is a contributing factor, they are saying it is directly responsible for a huge proportion of UK cases, which is totally different from suggestions that Cheltenham (still unproven) was an event that lead to some extra cases that wouldn't have occurred otherwise.
How do they know? Are they using viral genetics to demonstrate the significanc of Cheltenham? That is potentially killer (sorry) evidfence.
This continues the theme that is there for the reading. They know he has lost.
The most you could take from this as a Trump supporter would be that he is hoping to fight contended results. But it's a far cry from a victory party setup, that's the point.
Trump thought he had lost on election day 2016, he won
In the EXTREMELY unlikely event that Biden wins will you feel embarrassed?
No as I have never said Biden could not win
Strawman.
Point is, if Biden wins BIG you will have been proved to be an irrational, know nothing blowhard.
You do accept that, one presumes?
No, otherwise I would have got GE19 wrong too, it would just mean you cannot win them all and nothing wrong with that
No you see this is, forgive me, complete rubbish.
Even a broken clock tells the right time twice a day. And that, I'm afraid, sums up your method.
Even a broken clock is right twice a day sums up the attitude of every poster who backed labour in 2010, Miliband in 2015, remain in 2016, and a hung parliament in 2019. And Scottish independence.
And I believe there are many well respected posters on this site behind all those.
YOu have zero right to try to silence a poster on one polling miss that has not even happened yet.
a) I don't think Mysticrose was trying to silence HYUFD and it wouldn't work anyway and I don't think anyone would want that as HYUFD is a valued poster.
b) What is wrong with putting the broken clock argument forward? The who point of it is you can get the right answer, while being completely wrong in your methodology. A crystal ball reader will guess the right answer, it doesn't mean if they do they are actually talking to the dead.
c) Most posters on here do follow logical processes, but it is on events that haven't happened so they will get it wrong sometimes and often.
It really annoyed me all those holiday makers gaming their destinations over the summer. I knew someone who booked Portugal and Spain before getting caught out by Croatia. No one needed a foreign holiday this year.
What a fantastic opportunity for the Government to genuinely promote staycations. So OK the Airlines would be in big trouble, but they are anyway, and that plague-free six week window over the summer could have done wonders for domestic tourism.
I went on holiday this year (Turkey). I also went to the Cheltenham festival in March. I also go to see my 90-yr old mother regularly in her house and went this week in fact for a game of chess.
People will do what people have done. "No one needed a foreign holiday this year" is just PB privileged big house and garden bollocks.
It really annoyed me all those holiday makers gaming their destinations over the summer. I knew someone who booked Portugal and Spain before getting caught out by Croatia. No one needed a foreign holiday this year.
What a fantastic opportunity for the Government to genuinely promote staycations. So OK the Airlines would be in big trouble, but they are anyway, and that plague-free six week window over the summer could have done wonders for domestic tourism.
I went on holiday this year (Turkey). I also went to the Cheltenham festival in March. I also go to see my 90-yr old mother regularly in her house and went this week in fact for a game of chess.
People will do what people have done. "No one needed a foreign holiday this year" is just PB privileged big house and garden bollocks.
And look back up thread as to where that attitude has lead us.
So you are saying that the reason we are having a second wave of Covid is because people went on holiday this year? That article linked above makes just as many assumptions as it supposedly demolishes.
It looks to be a contributing factor, yes.
I agree it is all a contributing factor. But like Cheltenham while the Central Line was running, to single out one above all others is not as helpful. A global pandemic is just that.
No, they aren't saying it is a contributing factor, they are saying it is directly responsible for a huge proportion of UK cases, which is totally different from suggestions that Cheltenham (still unproven) was an event that lead to some extra cases that wouldn't have occurred otherwise.
How do they know? Are they using viral genetics to demonstrate the significanc of Cheltenham? That is potentially killer (sorry) evidfence.
In the case of importation from Spain, yes they are.
With respect to the latest opinion poll, this is just the begining: To all the right wingers on here, you know the ones, the ones that claim to be Tories, but are actually Faragists, I TOLD YOU SO! Boris Johnson is leading the once great Conservative Party to a calamity. The incompetence and the stupid obsession with getting a harder and harder Brexit, while hoping no-one will notice, will mean the Tories will be out for a generation unless they get rid of The Clown and bring what remains of the grown-ups back in. Starmer is starting on a course that will eventually move us in a more left wing direction, and the right wingers are to blame.
Tory voters aren;t deserting the tories because of brexit. It is the one thing that is keeping so many of them onside.
Boris's tories have junked every single tory principle in the book in the soace of nine months in a cause that many conservatives find at least questionable. At least.
So what will happen when Brexit loses its ability to attract those voters to the Tories?
great question.
In my view millions are ripe for the taking.
I still don't think for most it was Brexit attracting voters to the Tories, more that it was Corbyn pushing people toward the Tories. Either way it will be no Brexit/no Corbyn and a presentable middle class professional v a dishevelled wannabe upper-class clown. Not difficult to guess the outcome in a few years.
FPT - Tim Davie is quite right to introduce those new BBC guidelines - they are long overdue.
The question is whether management have the appetite to ensure they are enforced.
That's bollocks (if what I read is correct - big if).
BBC employees not allowed to go on Pride marches? Why the fuck not?
That's a straw man. The guidelines say that news employees should not attend any marches or demonstrations on controversial issues. That wouldn't include a LGBT BBC employee attending a pride march in a private capacity. That would cover a BBC employee attending a political march for gender self-identification for trans rights and then publicly tweeting or being interviewed about it. Common sense.
Most employers have clauses about bringing their employer into disrepute. The BBC lives or dies on its impartiality rules and the loose social media and offline activities of a small number of BBC employees have tainted the corporation's reputation.
This is some just the faux outrage of some existing BBC employees who want to discredit the guidelines before they come in so they can continue to have their cake and eat it.
I was reading your description to see the "oh yes that makes sense" bit. But there was none.
"news employees should not attend any marches or demonstrations on controversial issues".
WTF is a controversial issue? And it says (you write): "attend" not "liveblog on behalf of the rebel alliance".
Get a grip man what possible problem would you have with Evan Davis "attending" a gay pride march?
You obviously didn't read my post very well, as I addressed your Evan Davis point in my third sentence. I also gave an example of a demonstration on a controversial issue which would be directly against existing government policy.
This looks to me like issue where you've already made your mind up, and aren't going to change it regardless of the arguments that are put to you.
But your interpretation is just that. Your interpretation. To make you feel better, presumably, otherwise even you would realise how absurd it is.
The sentence you started off with was as follows:
"news employees should not attend any marches or demonstrations on controversial issues".
And here's how it is being reported:
"In addition to strict new social media guidelines, Davie introduced a ban on the broadcaster’s news reporters taking part in “public demonstrations or gatherings about controversial issues” even when not marching under an identifiable BBC banner."
It would probably be less controversial if it exempted LGBT stuff. Politics and religion are choices people make, their sexuality and gender identity are inherent - they have no choice.
There is a disappointingly substantial subsection of people, including it seems our very own @Casino_Royale, who believe that being gay is controversial.
Lol. Thank you. I always know I've won the argument when my opponent is reduced to trying to strawman me as a bigot because they're embarrassed they were shown to be wrong and have nowhere else to go.
Happy Friday @TOPPING - try not to give yourself a coronary. It's the weekend.
You said:
a) they should not take part in controversial events; and b) they should not take part in Pride.
Ergo, sunshine, you think taking part in Pride is controversial.
You do know what Pride is, don't you?
No, I didn't. I expressly said in my first post: "that wouldn't include a LGBT BBC employee attending a pride march in a private capacity."
You have been wilfully misrepresenting my position this morning as you didn't do the research into the story first before reaching a conclusion on it, and are too embarrassed to row back.
That says a lot about you - not me.
You said that but that's not what Tim Davie said. And we are discussing the new guidelines being brought in by Tim Davie for the BBC which you say are long overdue/a good idea.
You're all over the place, pal.
Thank you - so you admit you were wrong when you said I said they should not take part in Pride, and that taking Pride is controversial. You admit that I never said any such thing. Now, you're saying that's what I said but not what Tim Davie said.
So I've been clear and consistent. You're the one that's all over the place, pal.
Dear god.
You said the measures were sensible. The measures are to disallow BBC employees in a private capacity from attending Pride.
But then as you note you also wrote: "that wouldn't include a LGBT BBC employee attending a pride march in a private capacity."
So either you didn't know what the measures were, or you did know what they were and remain all over the place.
Also, what about a straight person who wants to attend Pride? Does it become a political statement then?
Not wearing a poppy is seen as a political statement.
Only some virtues are acceptable to signal, it seems.
A bit like not wearing a mask, really.
Not really. Not wearing a mask puts other people's health at risk. Not wearing a poppy doesn't. The RBL should make a poppy mask, they would clean up. Although I am guessing there is some overlap between poppy fascists and mask sceptics in the culture wars Venn.
It really annoyed me all those holiday makers gaming their destinations over the summer. I knew someone who booked Portugal and Spain before getting caught out by Croatia. No one needed a foreign holiday this year.
What a fantastic opportunity for the Government to genuinely promote staycations. So OK the Airlines would be in big trouble, but they are anyway, and that plague-free six week window over the summer could have done wonders for domestic tourism.
The history books will look back on Europes decision to have a summer holiday season as normal as unfathomable stupidity.
I think the bigger mistake was not restricting travel in February, or end of January. Taiwan introduced restrictions on arrivals in December.
For all his other blunders, it wasn't until Trump's travel ban that any European countries took that option seriously. Boris Johnson even tried to link it with the spectre of protectionism.
It really annoyed me all those holiday makers gaming their destinations over the summer. I knew someone who booked Portugal and Spain before getting caught out by Croatia. No one needed a foreign holiday this year.
What a fantastic opportunity for the Government to genuinely promote staycations. So OK the Airlines would be in big trouble, but they are anyway, and that plague-free six week window over the summer could have done wonders for domestic tourism.
I went on holiday this year (Turkey). I also went to the Cheltenham festival in March. I also go to see my 90-yr old mother regularly in her house and went this week in fact for a game of chess.
People will do what people have done. "No one needed a foreign holiday this year" is just PB privileged big house and garden bollocks.
And look back up thread as to where that attitude has lead us.
So you are saying that the reason we are having a second wave of Covid is because people went on holiday this year? That article linked above makes just as many assumptions as it supposedly demolishes.
It looks to be a contributing factor, yes.
I agree it is all a contributing factor. But like Cheltenham while the Central Line was running, to single out one above all others is not as helpful. A global pandemic is just that.
I agree with that entire post.
During lockdown one you could travel to NYC (at the height of their pandemic) and back. On your return you could take the tube from T5 into town before getting a train to your nearest mainline station. There you could catch the bus home to isolate for 14 days, But wait, you have no provisions, so you have to nip out to Tesco to stock up for the duration.
Nutty as Chris Williamson is, I don't share the common view held by many here that this was a good move by Starmer. If anything, I think it's been his first big mis-step since becoming leader.
Antisemitism under Corbyn was a cancer within the Labour Party.
You don't try to find a middle way of keeping a cancer within the party, you excise it. That the antisemitic Williamson wants nothing to do with Labour is progress for Starmer.
He's a real threat to win the next election.
Williamson is a loon ; but Starmer stands to lose a lot more by this action than to gain. Rather than coaxing a party with a still heavily leftwing membership in his direction, he now faces the prospect of multiple kinds of acrimony. For the sake of party unity, and also to a certain extent I think in terms of strict accuracy, he would have done better to make an example of people with objectionable views still in the party, rather than Corbyn himself, who has been largely negligent and irresponsible on this particular issue rather than a hate-monger.
After six months of Starmer ascendency, the press story is now going to shift for a while from Tory incompetence to Labour splits, and Starmer is going to lose more supporters than he gains. I would expect to see Labour dip a little in the polls and see some slippage to the Greens and others, and if I was at in the higher reaches of Labour, personally, I would be thinking of some way to steady the ship.
Labour went through all this in the 80s with Militant and their sidekicks and then again with Clause 4. It survived well enough to get 13 years in government.
As The Independent Group and various Farage / Brexit parties show, splitting off and setting up a separate party is a road to hell.
Labour will be fine, but it needs to throw the nutters out. So do the Tories.
Boris threw the nutters out last year and got rewarded with a landslide as a result.
He kept the nutters and threw out the only intelligent ones who are so needed now!
He threw out the nutters. That some can't see that extremists on their own side of a debate are nutters is part of the problem.
Boris effectively threw out the diehard Remainers like Soubry and Grieve and to a lesser extent Gauke, it was more the equivalent of the Blairites like Ummuna, Gapes, Leslie and Berger leaving Corbyn Labour, Starmer's action last night in suspending Corbyn as a former leader from the party would be like a future Tory leader suspending IDS
Soubry left the Tories much earlier when May was still PM.
It really annoyed me all those holiday makers gaming their destinations over the summer. I knew someone who booked Portugal and Spain before getting caught out by Croatia. No one needed a foreign holiday this year.
What a fantastic opportunity for the Government to genuinely promote staycations. So OK the Airlines would be in big trouble, but they are anyway, and that plague-free six week window over the summer could have done wonders for domestic tourism.
I went on holiday this year (Turkey). I also went to the Cheltenham festival in March. I also go to see my 90-yr old mother regularly in her house and went this week in fact for a game of chess.
People will do what people have done. "No one needed a foreign holiday this year" is just PB privileged big house and garden bollocks.
And look back up thread as to where that attitude has lead us.
So you are saying that the reason we are having a second wave of Covid is because people went on holiday this year? That article linked above makes just as many assumptions as it supposedly demolishes.
Has anyone done an analysis of viral genomes (ie genetic markers) comparable to that work on Wales? It showed that a significant proportion of outbreaks earlier this summer were actually imported from England (so far as they could tell), rather than simply bubbling up from endemic low level infection. That would be conclusive, not least because if the virus strains hadn't been imported then they wouldn't have caused the outbreaks.
Early on Ceredigion, especially in the South, had very low numbers. It's risen since, but not that much. How much of that rise was due to students at Aberystwyth. Similarly, how much in Pembrokeshire was due to activity, if any, at Pembroke Dock/Milford Haven?
This continues the theme that is there for the reading. They know he has lost.
The most you could take from this as a Trump supporter would be that he is hoping to fight contended results. But it's a far cry from a victory party setup, that's the point.
Trump thought he had lost on election day 2016, he won
In the EXTREMELY unlikely event that Biden wins will you feel embarrassed?
No as I have never said Biden could not win
Strawman.
Point is, if Biden wins BIG you will have been proved to be an irrational, know nothing blowhard.
You do accept that, one presumes?
No, otherwise I would have got GE19 wrong too, it would just mean you cannot win them all and nothing wrong with that
No you see this is, forgive me, complete rubbish.
Even a broken clock tells the right time twice a day. And that, I'm afraid, sums up your method.
Even a broken clock is right twice a day sums up the attitude of every poster who backed labour in 2010, Miliband in 2015, remain in 2016, and a hung parliament in 2019. And Scottish independence.
And I believe there are many well respected posters on this site behind all those.
YOu have zero right to try to silence a poster on one polling miss that has not even happened yet.
a) I don't think Mysticrose was trying to silence HYUFD and it wouldn't work anyway and I don't think anyone would want that as HYUFD is a valued poster.
b) What is wrong with putting the broken clock argument forward? The who point of it is you can get the right answer, while being completely wrong in your methodology. A crystal ball reader will guess the right answer, it doesn't mean if they do they are actually talking to the dead.
c) Most posters on here do follow logical processes, but it is on event that haven't happened so they will get it wrong sometimes and often.
YOu seem to be implying that there is a logical and correct approach to betting on elections that can still get the result spectacularly wrong.
I'll admit, my own approach to 2020 has been firstly gut instinct and partly my own experience based on US business trips. But I have since tried to find logical explanations for what were admittedly emotional responses first up.
So half the figure of REACT. 50k seems more inline with the data on rate of increase in hospital admissions etc than the 100k figure (which is what the peak in March / April was supposed to be).
It really annoyed me all those holiday makers gaming their destinations over the summer. I knew someone who booked Portugal and Spain before getting caught out by Croatia. No one needed a foreign holiday this year.
What a fantastic opportunity for the Government to genuinely promote staycations. So OK the Airlines would be in big trouble, but they are anyway, and that plague-free six week window over the summer could have done wonders for domestic tourism.
I went on holiday this year (Turkey). I also went to the Cheltenham festival in March. I also go to see my 90-yr old mother regularly in her house and went this week in fact for a game of chess.
People will do what people have done. "No one needed a foreign holiday this year" is just PB privileged big house and garden bollocks.
Did she beat you yet again?
Untypically, I won.
We are both very impatient and use clocks but to slow us down not to ensure we play as quickly as possible.
It really annoyed me all those holiday makers gaming their destinations over the summer. I knew someone who booked Portugal and Spain before getting caught out by Croatia. No one needed a foreign holiday this year.
What a fantastic opportunity for the Government to genuinely promote staycations. So OK the Airlines would be in big trouble, but they are anyway, and that plague-free six week window over the summer could have done wonders for domestic tourism.
The history books will look back on Europes decision to have a summer holiday season as normal as unfathomable stupidity.
I think the bigger mistake was not restricting travel in February, or end of January. Taiwan introduced restrictions on arrivals in December.
Well, I think one could say that was a mistake, but with some mitigating factors i.e. not fully understanding the situation, especially that it was much more widespread in Italy. But to repeat that mistake, knowing what we know now, is unforgivable.
That's true, and I certainly think they should have had more restrictions on travel in the summer - eg testing everyone on arrival would have allowed people to still travel, although might have made many more reluctant.
It's also odd that Britain had both the massive advantage of being an island, and had politicians having been elected on "Take control of the borders" rhetoric, but when it really mattered failed to do anything to control the borders.
Edit: re: the failure to restrict travel in Feb put it in "lesson to be learnt" rather than "mistake" if you prefer. This is probably not going to be the last (potential) pandemic we have to face.
Comments
The Populist Front of Little England (aka The Party Previously Known as Conservative) will be out in the cold. For us centrist, non headbanging Tories this will probably be a good thing in the mid to long term
But secondly, it is what "controversial" means. Because that is where the rot starts and, as @Foxy has pointed out, what is controversial under the Cons might not be controversial under Lab and vice versa.
And there is no conceivable reason on earth to hold any kind of parade whatsoever for Liverpool apart from a dissolution celebration.
What a fantastic opportunity for the Government to genuinely promote staycations. So OK the Airlines would be in big trouble, but they are anyway, and that plague-free six week window over the summer could have done wonders for domestic tourism.
What Jeremy said is true':
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8896917/What-Jeremy-said-true-Ken-Livingstone-denies-Labour-major-problem-anti-Semitism.html
Point is, if Biden wins BIG you will have been proved to be an irrational, know nothing blowhard.
You do accept that, one presumes?
People will do what people have done. "No one needed a foreign holiday this year" is just PB privileged big house and garden bollocks.
unfathomable stupidity.
A labour chief Secretary to the treasury being left a 'there is no money left' note.
A labour chancellor having to put the UK on the austerity program from hell to fulfil the IMF's bankruptcy bailout conditions.
Hilarious. And far from out of the question.
Comforting in a way.
You accept THAT, one presumes.
If you came out with even a modicum of a sensible argument: 'I believe Trump will win because of X, Y and Z and the polls are incorrect therefore because of A, B and C,' I'd have respect for you. But you don't.
It's just sophistry.
Do you really think these pollsters are in touch with republican America, what its doing and what it is thinking? because I really, really don't.
The idiotic out of touch refusal to back Marcus Rashford 100% was wrong on so many levels
I said at the time that I would have voted with the 5 other conservatives who voted with Labour to back Marcus
I am pleased Starmer has suspended Corbyn and to be honest he is looking good for 2024 unless the conservatives wake up to just how bad Boris has been
Even a broken clock tells the right time twice a day. And that, I'm afraid, sums up your method.
Things that struck home for me were:
a) Picking the winner but having a large error compared to someone who gets the loser but by a smaller error - who was the best pollster?
b) Picking criteria for sampling on what they believe to be key factors (personal opinion) is very dodgy rather than selecting by factual differences (age, sex, education, etc)
If I had to pick a pollster I will go for the one who got it wrong last time but uses maths and logic rather than one who got it right last time but uses voodoo.
We live in a small town, and have a small garden. We can easily go for walks in some very nice countryside (Yes, Mr E, there's plenty of such in Essex). Sit by the river and watch the waterfowl. Etc.
And we're visited by, and have visited younger relatives. Usually, but not always (it rained once) in the garden. So we haven't gone 'away', but we can understand people who do!
London and the SE are doing ok and several of the most deprived Northern towns like Rochdale and Oldham have a high number of cases.
Ps I do agree that people should have been stopped from travelling abroad this year. Foreign travel undoubtedly caused much of our virus spread.
Boris's tories have junked every single tory principle in the book in the soace of nine months in a cause that many conservatives find at least questionable. At least.
Just warming up those dice once more to prove if I throw a 6 and then a 6 again that I will always throw a 6.
And I believe there are many well respected posters on this site behind all those.
YOu have zero right to try to silence a poster on one polling miss that has not even happened yet.
How did you do at betting on 2018 results?
But it's all at risk now. It's like this, contrasting you with your 'close Trump win' vs me with my longtime 'big Trump loss' -
Close Trump win. Glory for you. Can't see my face for egg.
Close Biden win. Close but no cigar for both of us. We shrug and move on.
Big Biden win. Glory for me. Can't see YOUR face for egg. Your "Boris" cred all spent.
Agreed?
In my view millions are ripe for the taking.
The damage in the polls was inevitable once you were perceived to turn down poor children's meals, not least as Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland agreed to provide them
I am not sure Corbyn and Len will damage Starmer as long as he hold the line and keeps them away from the labour party
Personally it makes me much more relaxed at the increasing likelihood of a labour government in 2024
Hungry children over Christmas won't exactly be a vote winner for Boris, either!
When I get it wrong (GE 2019) I fess up and try to learn from my mistakes. What did I misread? Where did I go wrong in the methodology?
Almost always it comes down to a mixture of 1. allowing my heart to rule my head 2. failing to pay close attention to the details on the ground and 3. normalcy bias: believing that people will behave in the future as they have done in the past.
The Spectator is an extremel influential publication in toryworld. Its circulation has never been higher. Neil is Chairman.
We saw in 2019 that the Tory share can crater by losing votes to a Farage ego-vehicle, and there have been tiny signs of something similar in recent months. That does Labour very little good at all.
An apparent swing of votes from Tory to Labour is much more significant.
And it's very clear indeed (in Midwest states, for example) that there are.
A pollster who honestly searches for the unexamined doesn't dismiss a possibility like that.
He a persuasive rhetorician, and possibly as good a pundit as anyone else (allowing for biases). What he is not is a pollster.
Kapteyn was notably more honest on this point, too:
... In that sense, we are at opposite ends of the spectrum. We [USC’s Dornsife Center for Economic and Social Research] are not a polling firm; we’re a research firm. We happen to have this Internet panel where we ask people all sorts of questions, so why not also ask them about politics? For us, this is largely an experiment. That’s why we ask about this in different way: We want to see what works best...
b) What is wrong with putting the broken clock argument forward? The who point of it is you can get the right answer, while being completely wrong in your methodology. A crystal ball reader will guess the right answer, it doesn't mean if they do they are actually talking to the dead.
c) Most posters on here do follow logical processes, but it is on events that haven't happened so they will get it wrong sometimes and often.
The RBL should make a poppy mask, they would clean up. Although I am guessing there is some overlap between poppy fascists and mask sceptics in the culture wars Venn.
During lockdown one you could travel to NYC (at the height of their pandemic) and back. On your return you could take the tube from T5 into town before getting a train to your nearest mainline station. There you could catch the bus home to isolate for 14 days, But wait, you have no provisions, so you have to nip out to Tesco to stock up for the duration.
https://www.kut.org/post/nations-population-growth-slows-texas-sees-jump
I'll admit, my own approach to 2020 has been firstly gut instinct and partly my own experience based on US business trips. But I have since tried to find logical explanations for what were admittedly emotional responses first up.
We are both very impatient and use clocks but to slow us down not to ensure we play as quickly as possible.
It's also odd that Britain had both the massive advantage of being an island, and had politicians having been elected on "Take control of the borders" rhetoric, but when it really mattered failed to do anything to control the borders.
Edit: re: the failure to restrict travel in Feb put it in "lesson to be learnt" rather than "mistake" if you prefer. This is probably not going to be the last (potential) pandemic we have to face.
Its a vital, vital state.