It really annoyed me all those holiday makers gaming their destinations over the summer. I knew someone who booked Portugal and Spain before getting caught out by Croatia. No one needed a foreign holiday this year.
What a fantastic opportunity for the Government to genuinely promote staycations. So OK the Airlines would be in big trouble, but they are anyway, and that plague-free six week window over the summer could have done wonders for domestic tourism.
The history books will look back on Europes decision to have a summer holiday season as normal as unfathomable stupidity.
I think the bigger mistake was not restricting travel in February, or end of January. Taiwan introduced restrictions on arrivals in December.
Well, I think one could say that was a mistake, but with some mitigating factors i.e. not fully understanding the situation, especially that it was much more widespread in Italy. But to repeat that mistake, knowing what we know now, is unforgivable.
That's true, and I certainly think they should have had more restrictions on travel in the summer - eg testing everyone on arrival would have allowed people to still travel, although might have made many more reluctant.
It's also odd that Britain had both the massive advantage of being an island, and had politicians having been elected on "Take control of the borders" rhetoric, but when it really mattered failed to do anything to control the borders.
The inability to secure the borders has been the UK government single biggest failure. Things like track and trace, they are always onto a loser, given we aren't China or South Korea, but securing the borders is absolutely within their power and easily achievable. It doesn't require 5 years of tech development as was required for South Korea tracing system.
It really annoyed me all those holiday makers gaming their destinations over the summer. I knew someone who booked Portugal and Spain before getting caught out by Croatia. No one needed a foreign holiday this year.
What a fantastic opportunity for the Government to genuinely promote staycations. So OK the Airlines would be in big trouble, but they are anyway, and that plague-free six week window over the summer could have done wonders for domestic tourism.
I went on holiday this year (Turkey). I also went to the Cheltenham festival in March. I also go to see my 90-yr old mother regularly in her house and went this week in fact for a game of chess.
People will do what people have done. "No one needed a foreign holiday this year" is just PB privileged big house and garden bollocks.
And look back up thread as to where that attitude has lead us.
So you are saying that the reason we are having a second wave of Covid is because people went on holiday this year? That article linked above makes just as many assumptions as it supposedly demolishes.
It looks to be a contributing factor, yes.
I agree it is all a contributing factor. But like Cheltenham while the Central Line was running, to single out one above all others is not as helpful. A global pandemic is just that.
I agree with that entire post.
During lockdown one you could travel to NYC (at the height of their pandemic) and back. On your return you could take the tube from T5 into town before getting a train to your nearest mainline station. There you could catch the bus home to isolate for 14 days, But wait, you have no provisions, so you have to nip out to Tesco to stock up for the duration.
It really annoyed me all those holiday makers gaming their destinations over the summer. I knew someone who booked Portugal and Spain before getting caught out by Croatia. No one needed a foreign holiday this year.
What a fantastic opportunity for the Government to genuinely promote staycations. So OK the Airlines would be in big trouble, but they are anyway, and that plague-free six week window over the summer could have done wonders for domestic tourism.
The history books will look back on Europes decision to have a summer holiday season as normal as unfathomable stupidity.
I think the bigger mistake was not restricting travel in February, or end of January. Taiwan introduced restrictions on arrivals in December.
For all his other blunders, it wasn't until Trump's travel ban that any European countries took that option seriously. Boris Johnson even tried to link it with the spectre of protectionism.
It was a mistake made across the West. The US, of course, continued with pretty much unrestricted domestic aviation, and the 'bans' were a very long way from watertight.
This continues the theme that is there for the reading. They know he has lost.
The most you could take from this as a Trump supporter would be that he is hoping to fight contended results. But it's a far cry from a victory party setup, that's the point.
Trump thought he had lost on election day 2016, he won
In the EXTREMELY unlikely event that Biden wins will you feel embarrassed?
No as I have never said Biden could not win
Strawman.
Point is, if Biden wins BIG you will have been proved to be an irrational, know nothing blowhard.
You do accept that, one presumes?
No, otherwise I would have got GE19 wrong too, it would just mean you cannot win them all and nothing wrong with that
No you see this is, forgive me, complete rubbish.
Even a broken clock tells the right time twice a day. And that, I'm afraid, sums up your method.
Even a broken clock is right twice a day sums up the attitude of every poster who backed labour in 2010, Miliband in 2015, remain in 2016, and a hung parliament in 2019. And Scottish independence.
And I believe there are many well respected posters on this site behind all those.
YOu have zero right to try to silence a poster on one polling miss that has not even happened yet.
a) I don't think Mysticrose was trying to silence HYUFD and it wouldn't work anyway and I don't think anyone would want that as HYUFD is a valued poster.
b) What is wrong with putting the broken clock argument forward? The who point of it is you can get the right answer, while being completely wrong in your methodology. A crystal ball reader will guess the right answer, it doesn't mean if they do they are actually talking to the dead.
c) Most posters on here do follow logical processes, but it is on event that haven't happened so they will get it wrong sometimes and often.
YOu seem to be implying that there is a logical and correct approach to betting on elections that can still get the result spectacularly wrong.
I'll admit, my own approach to 2020 has been firstly gut instinct and partly my own experience based on US business trips. But I have since tried to find logical explanations for what were admittedly emotional responses first up.
Re your first sentence - Yes of course.
Otherwise those taking a logical and correct approach would always win which is patently nonsense.
Your 2nd sentence seems to imply you do that as well (be logical). Even the bit you describe as gut instinct is based upon something (experience, common sense, observation).
Nutty as Chris Williamson is, I don't share the common view held by many here that this was a good move by Starmer. If anything, I think it's been his first big mis-step since becoming leader.
Antisemitism under Corbyn was a cancer within the Labour Party.
You don't try to find a middle way of keeping a cancer within the party, you excise it. That the antisemitic Williamson wants nothing to do with Labour is progress for Starmer.
He's a real threat to win the next election.
Williamson is a loon ; but Starmer stands to lose a lot more by this action than to gain. Rather than coaxing a party with a still heavily leftwing membership in his direction, he now faces the prospect of multiple kinds of acrimony. For the sake of party unity, and also to a certain extent I think in terms of strict accuracy, he would have done better to make an example of people with objectionable views still in the party, rather than Corbyn himself, who has been largely negligent and irresponsible on this particular issue rather than a hate-monger.
After six months of Starmer ascendency, the press story is now going to shift for a while from Tory incompetence to Labour splits, and Starmer is going to lose more supporters than he gains. I would expect to see Labour dip a little in the polls and see some slippage to the Greens and others, and if I was at in the higher reaches of Labour, personally, I would be thinking of some way to steady the ship.
Labour went through all this in the 80s with Militant and their sidekicks and then again with Clause 4. It survived well enough to get 13 years in government.
As The Independent Group and various Farage / Brexit parties show, splitting off and setting up a separate party is a road to hell.
Labour will be fine, but it needs to throw the nutters out. So do the Tories.
Boris threw the nutters out last year and got rewarded with a landslide as a result.
He kept the nutters and threw out the only intelligent ones who are so needed now!
He threw out the nutters. That some can't see that extremists on their own side of a debate are nutters is part of the problem.
Boris effectively threw out the diehard Remainers like Soubry and Grieve and to a lesser extent Gauke, it was more the equivalent of the Blairites like Ummuna, Gapes, Leslie and Berger leaving Corbyn Labour, Starmer's action last night in suspending Corbyn as a former leader from the party would be like a future Tory leader suspending IDS
Soubry left the Tories much earlier when May was still PM.
I think that like with many moderate Tories, it was more the Tory Party leaving Soubry than the other way around.
The very much unexamined question (or at least greatly under polled) is where all the new Texas votes are coming from.
Yes. Turnout is clearly going to be very high.
Previous non voters turning out has scuppered a lot of polls in the past.
On 538, the polls are listed as LV or RV, which I understand means turnout adjusted or not, with little difference between the two. In terms of outcome. In which case turnout becomes a wash.
So half the figure of REACT. 50k seems more inline with the data on rate of increase in hospital admissions etc than the 100k figure (which is what the peak in March / April was supposed to be).
Data derived from latest ONS incidence data for England -
This continues the theme that is there for the reading. They know he has lost.
The most you could take from this as a Trump supporter would be that he is hoping to fight contended results. But it's a far cry from a victory party setup, that's the point.
Trump thought he had lost on election day 2016, he won
In the EXTREMELY unlikely event that Biden wins will you feel embarrassed?
No as I have never said Biden could not win
Strawman.
Point is, if Biden wins BIG you will have been proved to be an irrational, know nothing blowhard.
You do accept that, one presumes?
And if Trump wins BIG, Kinabalu, you will have been proved to be an irrational, know nothing blowhard.
You accept THAT, one presumes.
If Trump wins at all, let alone big, it will shake me to the very core. I will lose faith in both my judgment and the future.
Although it will be little consolation at least you know you made a rational (albeit wildly wrong) call as those who collect their winnings (having made completely irrational bets) gloat over you.
It really annoyed me all those holiday makers gaming their destinations over the summer. I knew someone who booked Portugal and Spain before getting caught out by Croatia. No one needed a foreign holiday this year.
What a fantastic opportunity for the Government to genuinely promote staycations. So OK the Airlines would be in big trouble, but they are anyway, and that plague-free six week window over the summer could have done wonders for domestic tourism.
The history books will look back on Europes decision to have a summer holiday season as normal as unfathomable stupidity.
I think the bigger mistake was not restricting travel in February, or end of January. Taiwan introduced restrictions on arrivals in December.
Well, I think one could say that was a mistake, but with some mitigating factors i.e. not fully understanding the situation, especially that it was much more widespread in Italy. But to repeat that mistake, knowing what we know now, is unforgivable.
That's true, and I certainly think they should have had more restrictions on travel in the summer - eg testing everyone on arrival would have allowed people to still travel, although might have made many more reluctant.
It's also odd that Britain had both the massive advantage of being an island, and had politicians having been elected on "Take control of the borders" rhetoric, but when it really mattered failed to do anything to control the borders.
The inability to secure the borders has been the UK government single biggest failure. Things like track and trace, they are always onto a loser, given we aren't China or South Korea, but securing the borders is absolutely within their power and easily achievable. It doesn't require 5 years of tech development as was required for South Korea tracing system.
Japan's been getting fairly similar results to South Korea, if you want to adopt their contact tracing tech I'm sure they can sell you some fax machines.
So half the figure of REACT. 50k seems more inline with the data on rate of increase in hospital admissions etc than the 100k figure (which is what the peak in March / April was supposed to be).
Data derived from latest ONS incidence data for England -
On wait, the ONS figures only go up to 16th....so with doubling time of 14 days, REACT and ONS do match up.
Not sure if this was posted already, apologies if so, Nate Cohn's tweet refers to the CCES survey (link in the tweet under Nate's) HIs summary shows Biden closer to Trump in whites than Clinton, but as has been mentioned losing slightly to both Black and Hispanic votes.
I looked at some of the data (theres a LOT), if I read it right Trump is still up with Indys (though by quite a bit less than he was on Clinton), Overall i think it comes out with a Biden lead of about 8% . I haven't delved too deep into all the numbers, am sure others will but they were pretty close in 2016 (in regards the pop vote I mean)
It really annoyed me all those holiday makers gaming their destinations over the summer. I knew someone who booked Portugal and Spain before getting caught out by Croatia. No one needed a foreign holiday this year.
What a fantastic opportunity for the Government to genuinely promote staycations. So OK the Airlines would be in big trouble, but they are anyway, and that plague-free six week window over the summer could have done wonders for domestic tourism.
The history books will look back on Europes decision to have a summer holiday season as normal as unfathomable stupidity.
I think the bigger mistake was not restricting travel in February, or end of January. Taiwan introduced restrictions on arrivals in December.
For all his other blunders, it wasn't until Trump's travel ban that any European countries took that option seriously. Boris Johnson even tried to link it with the spectre of protectionism.
A hard travel ban would have had P. Patel announcing that immigration to the UK was to be completely halted....
The reaction to that would have been visible from space.
So half the figure of REACT. 50k seems more inline with the data on rate of increase in hospital admissions etc than the 100k figure (which is what the peak in March / April was supposed to be).
Data derived from latest ONS incidence data for England -
On wait, the ONS figures only go up to 16th....so with doubling time of 14 days, REACT and ONS do match up.
This continues the theme that is there for the reading. They know he has lost.
The most you could take from this as a Trump supporter would be that he is hoping to fight contended results. But it's a far cry from a victory party setup, that's the point.
Trump thought he had lost on election day 2016, he won
In the EXTREMELY unlikely event that Biden wins will you feel embarrassed?
No as I have never said Biden could not win
Strawman.
Point is, if Biden wins BIG you will have been proved to be an irrational, know nothing blowhard.
You do accept that, one presumes?
No, otherwise I would have got GE19 wrong too, it would just mean you cannot win them all and nothing wrong with that
No you see this is, forgive me, complete rubbish.
Even a broken clock tells the right time twice a day. And that, I'm afraid, sums up your method.
Even a broken clock is right twice a day sums up the attitude of every poster who backed labour in 2010, Miliband in 2015, remain in 2016, and a hung parliament in 2019. And Scottish independence.
And I believe there are many well respected posters on this site behind all those.
YOu have zero right to try to silence a poster on one polling miss that has not even happened yet.
a) I don't think Mysticrose was trying to silence HYUFD and it wouldn't work anyway and I don't think anyone would want that as HYUFD is a valued poster.
b) What is wrong with putting the broken clock argument forward? The who point of it is you can get the right answer, while being completely wrong in your methodology. A crystal ball reader will guess the right answer, it doesn't mean if they do they are actually talking to the dead.
c) Most posters on here do follow logical processes, but it is on event that haven't happened so they will get it wrong sometimes and often.
YOu seem to be implying that there is a logical and correct approach to betting on elections that can still get the result spectacularly wrong.
I'll admit, my own approach to 2020 has been firstly gut instinct and partly my own experience based on US business trips. But I have since tried to find logical explanations for what were admittedly emotional responses first up.
Re your first sentence - Yes of course.
Otherwise those taking a logical and correct approach would always win which is patently nonsense.
Your 2nd sentence seems to imply you do that as well (be logical). Even the bit you describe as gut instinct is based upon something (experience, common sense, observation).
There is no merit in disagreeing with the results of a poll without a very good reason. I think there's evidence republicans really are very difficult to poll in the current climate, but they are out there.
I think that's backed up by the registered Republican early in person vote numbers in states like Florida and Nevada. The dem advantage from mail in is being shredded daily.
But of course nobody knows how any of these people voted, and there are plenty of indie early votes, too.
This continues the theme that is there for the reading. They know he has lost.
The most you could take from this as a Trump supporter would be that he is hoping to fight contended results. But it's a far cry from a victory party setup, that's the point.
Trump thought he had lost on election day 2016, he won
In the EXTREMELY unlikely event that Biden wins will you feel embarrassed?
No as I have never said Biden could not win
Strawman.
Point is, if Biden wins BIG you will have been proved to be an irrational, know nothing blowhard.
You do accept that, one presumes?
No, otherwise I would have got GE19 wrong too, it would just mean you cannot win them all and nothing wrong with that
No you see this is, forgive me, complete rubbish.
Even a broken clock tells the right time twice a day. And that, I'm afraid, sums up your method.
Having called Boris PM and GE19 right if Trump narrowly wins the EC even if Biden wins the popular vote I will probably be one of the if not the most accurate election forecasters on here at the moment
Out of curiosity, is there anywhere where we can see the 2019 and other old predictions from PBers? We should really keep a database of final calls.
So half the figure of REACT. 50k seems more inline with the data on rate of increase in hospital admissions etc than the 100k figure (which is what the peak in March / April was supposed to be).
Data derived from latest ONS incidence data for England -
On wait, the ONS figures only go up to 16th....so with doubling time of 14 days, REACT and ONS do match up.
17th - but yes.
The big difference however is predicted R rates in some areas. REACT had London and the SE as looking bad, this ONS survey is far better for those regions.
That is pretty cool. I have always thought that the party that is perceived to be less extreme wins. So even though Thatcher was thought to be extreme by many, she was seen as less extreme than Foot or Kinnoch. Wasn't able to see from that graphic whether that was the case at times of election, so it could well be BS lol!
The idiotic out of touch refusal to back Marcus Rashford 100% was wrong on so many levels
I said at the time that I would have voted with the 5 other conservatives who voted with Labour to back Marcus
I am pleased Starmer has suspended Corbyn and to be honest he is looking good for 2024 unless the conservatives wake up to just how bad Boris has been
Rashford could be a defining moment for the Tories. Fortunately, they have Jeremy and Len on hand to help them out.
I'm not sure that chucking JC out will be bad for Labour's public image. Especially given the reason. Hungry children over Christmas won't exactly be a vote winner for Boris, either!
The very much unexamined question (or at least greatly under polled) is where all the new Texas votes are coming from.
Indeed. The fundamental flaw of all polling is an inability to model turnout.
I thought they attempted to do that by looking at likelihood to vote?
They do of course. But who you will vote for should you vote has proved easier to measure than whether you will actually be bothered to do so. Leave and 2017 polls were largely scuppered by the question of who will vote.
It really annoyed me all those holiday makers gaming their destinations over the summer. I knew someone who booked Portugal and Spain before getting caught out by Croatia. No one needed a foreign holiday this year.
What a fantastic opportunity for the Government to genuinely promote staycations. So OK the Airlines would be in big trouble, but they are anyway, and that plague-free six week window over the summer could have done wonders for domestic tourism.
The history books will look back on Europes decision to have a summer holiday season as normal as unfathomable stupidity.
I think the bigger mistake was not restricting travel in February, or end of January. Taiwan introduced restrictions on arrivals in December.
For all his other blunders, it wasn't until Trump's travel ban that any European countries took that option seriously. Boris Johnson even tried to link it with the spectre of protectionism.
A hard travel ban would have had P. Patel announcing that immigration to the UK was to be completely halted....
The reaction to that would have been visible from space.
Patel did reportedly argue for tougher border controls but Shapps swayed the Cabinet against.
It really annoyed me all those holiday makers gaming their destinations over the summer. I knew someone who booked Portugal and Spain before getting caught out by Croatia. No one needed a foreign holiday this year.
What a fantastic opportunity for the Government to genuinely promote staycations. So OK the Airlines would be in big trouble, but they are anyway, and that plague-free six week window over the summer could have done wonders for domestic tourism.
I went on holiday this year (Turkey). I also went to the Cheltenham festival in March. I also go to see my 90-yr old mother regularly in her house and went this week in fact for a game of chess.
People will do what people have done. "No one needed a foreign holiday this year" is just PB privileged big house and garden bollocks.
I booked a trackday at Anglesey in December which now feels like the epitome of foolhardy optimism.
This continues the theme that is there for the reading. They know he has lost.
The most you could take from this as a Trump supporter would be that he is hoping to fight contended results. But it's a far cry from a victory party setup, that's the point.
Trump thought he had lost on election day 2016, he won
In the EXTREMELY unlikely event that Biden wins will you feel embarrassed?
No as I have never said Biden could not win
Strawman.
Point is, if Biden wins BIG you will have been proved to be an irrational, know nothing blowhard.
You do accept that, one presumes?
No, otherwise I would have got GE19 wrong too, it would just mean you cannot win them all and nothing wrong with that
No you see this is, forgive me, complete rubbish.
Even a broken clock tells the right time twice a day. And that, I'm afraid, sums up your method.
Having called Boris PM and GE19 right if Trump narrowly wins the EC even if Biden wins the popular vote I will probably be one of the if not the most accurate election forecasters on here at the moment
Having defended you against accusations of arrogance the other day HY, I am a bit disappointed by this bit of excessive hubris. I have predicted lots of elections correctly, and on reflection most were just luck. None of us has a crystal ball.
So half the figure of REACT. 50k seems more inline with the data on rate of increase in hospital admissions etc than the 100k figure (which is what the peak in March / April was supposed to be).
Data derived from latest ONS incidence data for England -
On wait, the ONS figures only go up to 16th....so with doubling time of 14 days, REACT and ONS do match up.
In which case the REACT assessment r number of 2.86* in London is a shitshow in the making.
That is pretty cool. I have always thought that the party that is perceived to be less extreme wins. So even though Thatcher was thought to be extreme by many, she was seen as less extreme than Foot or Kinnoch. Wasn't able to see from that graphic whether that was the case at times of election, so it could well be BS lol!
This continues the theme that is there for the reading. They know he has lost.
The most you could take from this as a Trump supporter would be that he is hoping to fight contended results. But it's a far cry from a victory party setup, that's the point.
Trump thought he had lost on election day 2016, he won
In the EXTREMELY unlikely event that Biden wins will you feel embarrassed?
No as I have never said Biden could not win
Strawman.
Point is, if Biden wins BIG you will have been proved to be an irrational, know nothing blowhard.
You do accept that, one presumes?
No, otherwise I would have got GE19 wrong too, it would just mean you cannot win them all and nothing wrong with that
No you see this is, forgive me, complete rubbish.
Even a broken clock tells the right time twice a day. And that, I'm afraid, sums up your method.
Even a broken clock is right twice a day sums up the attitude of every poster who backed labour in 2010, Miliband in 2015, remain in 2016, and a hung parliament in 2019. And Scottish independence.
And I believe there are many well respected posters on this site behind all those.
YOu have zero right to try to silence a poster on one polling miss that has not even happened yet.
a) I don't think Mysticrose was trying to silence HYUFD and it wouldn't work anyway and I don't think anyone would want that as HYUFD is a valued poster.
b) What is wrong with putting the broken clock argument forward? The who point of it is you can get the right answer, while being completely wrong in your methodology. A crystal ball reader will guess the right answer, it doesn't mean if they do they are actually talking to the dead.
c) Most posters on here do follow logical processes, but it is on event that haven't happened so they will get it wrong sometimes and often.
YOu seem to be implying that there is a logical and correct approach to betting on elections that can still get the result spectacularly wrong.
I'll admit, my own approach to 2020 has been firstly gut instinct and partly my own experience based on US business trips. But I have since tried to find logical explanations for what were admittedly emotional responses first up.
Re your first sentence - Yes of course.
Otherwise those taking a logical and correct approach would always win which is patently nonsense.
Your 2nd sentence seems to imply you do that as well (be logical). Even the bit you describe as gut instinct is based upon something (experience, common sense, observation).
There is no merit in disagreeing with the results of a poll without a very good reason. I think there's evidence republicans really are very difficult to poll in the current climate, but they are out there.
I think that's backed up by the registered Republican early in person vote numbers in states like Florida and Nevada. The dem advantage from mail in is being shredded daily.
But of course nobody knows how any of these people voted, and there are plenty of indie early votes, too.
Re shy Republicans - I have no idea.
Re the polls I don't have any knowledge about the accuracy of any of them other than what has been said here, with the exception of Trafalgar. Following RCS1000 and Alistair's comments I did look into some of it. RCS1000 comments were logical. I checked Alistair's observations and they were accurate. Worth also reading the article Philip linked to today.
I find it difficult to believe they are entirely bogus, but there is definitely something very odd going on there.
HYUFD's reliance on them seems to be entirely based upon they got it right last time. Hence people putting forward the stopped clock argument.
And they might get it right again, but will it be through skill or luck.
Obviously a good poll for Labour with the Tories on their lowest vote share since mid- 2019.Were Labour to maintain this position, I would expect a significant recovery for the party in Scotland as voters see a real prospect of the Tories being ousted.
That is pretty cool. I have always thought that the party that is perceived to be less extreme wins. So even though Thatcher was thought to be extreme by many, she was seen as less extreme than Foot or Kinnoch. Wasn't able to see from that graphic whether that was the case at times of election, so it could well be BS lol!
Miliband the only contraindicator to the rule.
Really? I would have said Cameron was closer to the centre than Miliband. Does it show that on the graphic?
This continues the theme that is there for the reading. They know he has lost.
The most you could take from this as a Trump supporter would be that he is hoping to fight contended results. But it's a far cry from a victory party setup, that's the point.
Trump thought he had lost on election day 2016, he won
In the EXTREMELY unlikely event that Biden wins will you feel embarrassed?
No as I have never said Biden could not win
Strawman.
Point is, if Biden wins BIG you will have been proved to be an irrational, know nothing blowhard.
You do accept that, one presumes?
No, otherwise I would have got GE19 wrong too, it would just mean you cannot win them all and nothing wrong with that
No you see this is, forgive me, complete rubbish.
Even a broken clock tells the right time twice a day. And that, I'm afraid, sums up your method.
Having called Boris PM and GE19 right if Trump narrowly wins the EC even if Biden wins the popular vote I will probably be one of the if not the most accurate election forecasters on here at the moment
Out of curiosity, is there anywhere where we can see the 2019 and other old predictions from PBers? We should really keep a database of final calls.
In 2019 pretty much everyone here predicted a Con majority apart from @CorrectHorseBattery . So not much bragging rights.
So there's today + the actual election day to add. Very democrat county.
The Github ElectionProject website has over 36 million mail ballots outstanding right now. With only 4 days to go and conventional wisdom being that the mail-ins heavily favour the Dems can someone reassure me that this isn't developing into a problem for Biden? Perhaps SeaShanty can give us a view when he turns up.
This continues the theme that is there for the reading. They know he has lost.
The most you could take from this as a Trump supporter would be that he is hoping to fight contended results. But it's a far cry from a victory party setup, that's the point.
Trump thought he had lost on election day 2016, he won
In the EXTREMELY unlikely event that Biden wins will you feel embarrassed?
No as I have never said Biden could not win
Strawman.
Point is, if Biden wins BIG you will have been proved to be an irrational, know nothing blowhard.
You do accept that, one presumes?
No, otherwise I would have got GE19 wrong too, it would just mean you cannot win them all and nothing wrong with that
No you see this is, forgive me, complete rubbish.
Even a broken clock tells the right time twice a day. And that, I'm afraid, sums up your method.
Having called Boris PM and GE19 right if Trump narrowly wins the EC even if Biden wins the popular vote I will probably be one of the if not the most accurate election forecasters on here at the moment
Having defended you against accusations of arrogance the other day HY, I am a bit disappointed by this bit of excessive hubris. I have predicted lots of elections correctly, and on reflection most were just luck. None of us has a crystal ball.
No but as some people dismiss my predictions even if I am right I would be entitled to a certain amount of hubris if that came to pass
This continues the theme that is there for the reading. They know he has lost.
The most you could take from this as a Trump supporter would be that he is hoping to fight contended results. But it's a far cry from a victory party setup, that's the point.
Trump thought he had lost on election day 2016, he won
In the EXTREMELY unlikely event that Biden wins will you feel embarrassed?
No as I have never said Biden could not win
Strawman.
Point is, if Biden wins BIG you will have been proved to be an irrational, know nothing blowhard.
You do accept that, one presumes?
And if Trump wins BIG, Kinabalu, you will have been proved to be an irrational, know nothing blowhard.
You accept THAT, one presumes.
If Trump wins at all, let alone big, it will shake me to the very core. I will lose faith in both my judgment and the future.
Relax. He will destroy America and hope lies in the smouldering rubble of empires. As RAtM perceptively observed.
This continues the theme that is there for the reading. They know he has lost.
The most you could take from this as a Trump supporter would be that he is hoping to fight contended results. But it's a far cry from a victory party setup, that's the point.
Trump thought he had lost on election day 2016, he won
In the EXTREMELY unlikely event that Biden wins will you feel embarrassed?
No as I have never said Biden could not win
Strawman.
Point is, if Biden wins BIG you will have been proved to be an irrational, know nothing blowhard.
You do accept that, one presumes?
And if Trump wins BIG, Kinabalu, you will have been proved to be an irrational, know nothing blowhard.
You accept THAT, one presumes.
If Trump wins at all, let alone big, it will shake me to the very core. I will lose faith in both my judgment and the future.
Although it will be little consolation at least you know you made a rational (albeit wildly wrong) call as those who collect their winnings (having made completely irrational bets) gloat over you.
That's an experience all professional punters and even semi-serious ones know well. It not only may happen, but is guaranteed to do so from time to time if you are punting properly for long enough. The reason of course is that you are wagering on probabilities, not certainties.
Obviously a good poll for Labour with the Tories on their lowest vote share since mid- 2019.Were Labour to maintain this position, I would expect a significant recovery for the party in Scotland as voters see a real prospect of the Tories being ousted.
That is an interesting perspective, which could well play out.
IF that's right, beats me why Obama and Biden are rushing there on Saturday.
It's not right, Michigan is closer than that. My feeling with these visits is Biden is making sure of the win, something Clinton didnt do, she assumed the win, So I see visits like this and MN as Biden doing what he can to ensure he wins the states he has to, I understand he's off to PA as well before Tuesday.
This continues the theme that is there for the reading. They know he has lost.
The most you could take from this as a Trump supporter would be that he is hoping to fight contended results. But it's a far cry from a victory party setup, that's the point.
Trump thought he had lost on election day 2016, he won
In the EXTREMELY unlikely event that Biden wins will you feel embarrassed?
No as I have never said Biden could not win
Strawman.
Point is, if Biden wins BIG you will have been proved to be an irrational, know nothing blowhard.
You do accept that, one presumes?
And if Trump wins BIG, Kinabalu, you will have been proved to be an irrational, know nothing blowhard.
You accept THAT, one presumes.
If Trump wins at all, let alone big, it will shake me to the very core. I will lose faith in both my judgment and the future.
Although it will be little consolation at least you know you made a rational (albeit wildly wrong) call as those who collect their winnings (having made completely irrational bets) gloat over you.
Ha. Yes. But thin gruel indeed. Ironically, I started out ages ago looking outre with "Trump Toast" when the polling was ok for him and he was the odds on fav. Then the data changed and caught me up! So now I look data driven rather than instinct driven, which is not quite the case.
This continues the theme that is there for the reading. They know he has lost.
The most you could take from this as a Trump supporter would be that he is hoping to fight contended results. But it's a far cry from a victory party setup, that's the point.
Trump thought he had lost on election day 2016, he won
In the EXTREMELY unlikely event that Biden wins will you feel embarrassed?
No as I have never said Biden could not win
Strawman.
Point is, if Biden wins BIG you will have been proved to be an irrational, know nothing blowhard.
You do accept that, one presumes?
No, otherwise I would have got GE19 wrong too, it would just mean you cannot win them all and nothing wrong with that
No you see this is, forgive me, complete rubbish.
Even a broken clock tells the right time twice a day. And that, I'm afraid, sums up your method.
Having called Boris PM and GE19 right if Trump narrowly wins the EC even if Biden wins the popular vote I will probably be one of the if not the most accurate election forecasters on here at the moment
Out of curiosity, is there anywhere where we can see the 2019 and other old predictions from PBers? We should really keep a database of final calls.
In 2019 pretty much everyone here predicted a Con majority apart from @CorrectHorseBattery . So not much bragging rights.
True, I was thinking about predictions for size of majority. Or maybe we could set up a Good Judgement Project style thing with %s and brier scores. For the record, my prediction was a majority of 60 (although obviously I had some uncertainty on that) which I was pretty pleased with. My betting was accordingly, so I had a good night.
Come to think of it, is anyone else here on Good Judgement Open? I'm on there as Quincel, feel free to drop me a follow.
Obviously a good poll for Labour with the Tories on their lowest vote share since mid- 2019.Were Labour to maintain this position, I would expect a significant recovery for the party in Scotland as voters see a real prospect of the Tories being ousted.
A very good poll for labour, lets see if they can maintain it, Will be interesting to see how the Corbyn factor plays into upcoming polls. But I would expect it to help more than hinder Labours share.
It really annoyed me all those holiday makers gaming their destinations over the summer. I knew someone who booked Portugal and Spain before getting caught out by Croatia. No one needed a foreign holiday this year.
What a fantastic opportunity for the Government to genuinely promote staycations. So OK the Airlines would be in big trouble, but they are anyway, and that plague-free six week window over the summer could have done wonders for domestic tourism.
I went on holiday this year (Turkey). I also went to the Cheltenham festival in March. I also go to see my 90-yr old mother regularly in her house and went this week in fact for a game of chess.
People will do what people have done. "No one needed a foreign holiday this year" is just PB privileged big house and garden bollocks.
Did she beat you yet again?
Untypically, I won.
We are both very impatient and use clocks but to slow us down not to ensure we play as quickly as possible.
I sense she'll get you next time. Bet you overreach sometimes and leave your rear exposed.
Seriously what is with your obsession about the false positive rate? It is an absolutely irrelevant distraction when the ONS survey rate is seeing the data go up.
Best case scenario there is negligible false positives so the rates are going up as shown. Worse case scenario there were false positives meaning the rates are going up faster than shown. Makes the problem worse not better.
IF that's right, beats me why Obama and Biden are rushing there on Saturday.
It's not right, Michigan is closer than that. My feeling with these visits is Biden is making sure of the win, something Clinton didnt do, she assumed the win, So I see visits like this and MN as Biden doing what he can to ensure he wins the states he has to, I understand he's off to PA as well before Tuesday.
Biden has only done 2 state visits this week so far, Trump has done 8 state visits since Sunday
The very much unexamined question (or at least greatly under polled) is where all the new Texas votes are coming from.
Indeed. The fundamental flaw of all polling is an inability to model turnout.
Not so. The fundamental weakness is the inability to select a random sample.
If you could choose people randomly from the electoral register, and have a 100% honest response rate, then you wouldn't need to model anything.
Assuming your random was repwesentative. People can be honest in their stated intention. Then not bother. Actually polling people who voted. Using the same cross on paper and into a box method, at the same location over time, is why the Curtice exit polls are so accurate.
IF that's right, beats me why Obama and Biden are rushing there on Saturday.
It's not right, Michigan is closer than that. My feeling with these visits is Biden is making sure of the win, something Clinton didnt do, she assumed the win, So I see visits like this and MN as Biden doing what he can to ensure he wins the states he has to, I understand he's off to PA as well before Tuesday.
Biden has only done 2 state visits this week so far, Trump has done 8 state visits since Sunday
It's almost as if Biden is respecting the pandemic while Trump is being irresponsible.
It's almost as if Biden is confident because a majority of voters dislike Trump's irresponsibility.
This continues the theme that is there for the reading. They know he has lost.
The most you could take from this as a Trump supporter would be that he is hoping to fight contended results. But it's a far cry from a victory party setup, that's the point.
Trump thought he had lost on election day 2016, he won
In the EXTREMELY unlikely event that Biden wins will you feel embarrassed?
No as I have never said Biden could not win
Strawman.
Point is, if Biden wins BIG you will have been proved to be an irrational, know nothing blowhard.
You do accept that, one presumes?
No, otherwise I would have got GE19 wrong too, it would just mean you cannot win them all and nothing wrong with that
No you see this is, forgive me, complete rubbish.
Even a broken clock tells the right time twice a day. And that, I'm afraid, sums up your method.
Having called Boris PM and GE19 right if Trump narrowly wins the EC even if Biden wins the popular vote I will probably be one of the if not the most accurate election forecasters on here at the moment
Out of curiosity, is there anywhere where we can see the 2019 and other old predictions from PBers? We should really keep a database of final calls.
In 2019 pretty much everyone here predicted a Con majority apart from @CorrectHorseBattery . So not much bragging rights.
True, I was thinking about predictions for size of majority. Or maybe we could set up a Good Judgement Project style thing with %s and brier scores.
Come to think of it, is anyone else here on Good Judgement Open? I'm on there as Quincel, feel free to drop me a follow.
Yes. The badge of honour goes to those who called Con landslide, especially if they did so firmly and without caveat on the day the election was called. I'll say no more.
IF that's right, beats me why Obama and Biden are rushing there on Saturday.
It's not right, Michigan is closer than that. My feeling with these visits is Biden is making sure of the win, something Clinton didnt do, she assumed the win, So I see visits like this and MN as Biden doing what he can to ensure he wins the states he has to, I understand he's off to PA as well before Tuesday.
Biden has only done 2 state visits this week so far, Trump has done 8 state visits since Sunday
So there's today + the actual election day to add. Very democrat county.
The Github ElectionProject website has over 36 million mail ballots outstanding right now. With only 4 days to go and conventional wisdom being that the mail-ins heavily favour the Dems can someone reassure me that this isn't developing into a problem for Biden? Perhaps SeaShanty can give us a view when he turns up.
@Pulpstar is that % of 2016 turnout right about Travis or is it 111% of the early turnout in 16? The Texas Tribune site says turnout was 59.8% end Oct 28th vs 63.8% total turnout for 2016
This continues the theme that is there for the reading. They know he has lost.
The most you could take from this as a Trump supporter would be that he is hoping to fight contended results. But it's a far cry from a victory party setup, that's the point.
Trump thought he had lost on election day 2016, he won
In the EXTREMELY unlikely event that Biden wins will you feel embarrassed?
No as I have never said Biden could not win
Strawman.
Point is, if Biden wins BIG you will have been proved to be an irrational, know nothing blowhard.
You do accept that, one presumes?
No, otherwise I would have got GE19 wrong too, it would just mean you cannot win them all and nothing wrong with that
No you see this is, forgive me, complete rubbish.
Even a broken clock tells the right time twice a day. And that, I'm afraid, sums up your method.
Having called Boris PM and GE19 right if Trump narrowly wins the EC even if Biden wins the popular vote I will probably be one of the if not the most accurate election forecasters on here at the moment
Out of curiosity, is there anywhere where we can see the 2019 and other old predictions from PBers? We should really keep a database of final calls.
In 2019 pretty much everyone here predicted a Con majority apart from @CorrectHorseBattery . So not much bragging rights.
True, I was thinking about predictions for size of majority. Or maybe we could set up a Good Judgement Project style thing with %s and brier scores.
Come to think of it, is anyone else here on Good Judgement Open? I'm on there as Quincel, feel free to drop me a follow.
I called it wrong, which was the first time in quite a lot of GEs. I thought it would be a small Tory maj or even a hung parliament. I allowed my own dislike of Johnson to colour my judgement. I have though, I would humbly submit, been correct about Boris Johnson being highly unsuitable to be PM.
Republicans to win Florida, Democrats to win Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona and New Hampshire. 7/1
I've backed this and covered my stake backing Democrats to win Florida. So I'm left with a bet at approx 3/1 for Democrats to win Mi, Wi, Pa, Az and NH. Not saying it's an odds on shot but happy with those odds.
Seriously what is with your obsession about the false positive rate? It is an absolutely irrelevant distraction when the ONS survey rate is seeing the data go up.
Best case scenario there is negligible false positives so the rates are going up as shown. Worse case scenario there were false positives meaning the rates are going up faster than shown. Makes the problem worse not better.
Because the most important public policy decisions since the War are being taken based on models and data and we should, as the public, have a complete picture of that data. I don't think we are getting a complete picture. As another example, Manchester Evening News trying to find out how many ICU beds were occupied in the city's hospitals last week.
This continues the theme that is there for the reading. They know he has lost.
The most you could take from this as a Trump supporter would be that he is hoping to fight contended results. But it's a far cry from a victory party setup, that's the point.
Trump thought he had lost on election day 2016, he won
In the EXTREMELY unlikely event that Biden wins will you feel embarrassed?
No as I have never said Biden could not win
Strawman.
Point is, if Biden wins BIG you will have been proved to be an irrational, know nothing blowhard.
You do accept that, one presumes?
And if Trump wins BIG, Kinabalu, you will have been proved to be an irrational, know nothing blowhard.
You accept THAT, one presumes.
If Trump wins at all, let alone big, it will shake me to the very core. I will lose faith in both my judgment and the future.
Relax. He will destroy America and hope lies in the smouldering rubble of empires. As RAtM perceptively observed.
Does that still give Conservatives largest party in the extrapolation you use?
That looks significant to me.
We're over three and a half years away from an election, ffs!
Barely - unless the FTPA is replaced! As of today , Polling Day will be 2nd May 2024 - in which case we are as close to the GE as the end of April 2017 - ie 10 days into the 2017 campaign.
This continues the theme that is there for the reading. They know he has lost.
The most you could take from this as a Trump supporter would be that he is hoping to fight contended results. But it's a far cry from a victory party setup, that's the point.
Trump thought he had lost on election day 2016, he won
In the EXTREMELY unlikely event that Biden wins will you feel embarrassed?
No as I have never said Biden could not win
Strawman.
Point is, if Biden wins BIG you will have been proved to be an irrational, know nothing blowhard.
You do accept that, one presumes?
And if Trump wins BIG, Kinabalu, you will have been proved to be an irrational, know nothing blowhard.
You accept THAT, one presumes.
If Trump wins at all, let alone big, it will shake me to the very core. I will lose faith in both my judgment and the future.
Although it will be little consolation at least you know you made a rational (albeit wildly wrong) call as those who collect their winnings (having made completely irrational bets) gloat over you.
Ha. Yes. But thin gruel indeed. Ironically, I started out ages ago looking outre with "Trump Toast" when the polling was ok for him and he was the odds on fav. Then the data changed and caught me up! So now I look data driven rather than instinct driven, which is not quite the case.
So let me get this right: What you are telling me is that when you lose it won't be because you are a great punter who got unlucky, but that you are actually an idiot.
So there's today + the actual election day to add. Very democrat county.
The Github ElectionProject website has over 36 million mail ballots outstanding right now. With only 4 days to go and conventional wisdom being that the mail-ins heavily favour the Dems can someone reassure me that this isn't developing into a problem for Biden? Perhaps SeaShanty can give us a view when he turns up.
@Pulpstar is that % of 2016 turnout right about Travis or is it 111% of the early turnout in 16? The Texas Tribune site says turnout was 59.8% end Oct 28th vs 63.8% total turnout for 2016
Seriously what is with your obsession about the false positive rate? It is an absolutely irrelevant distraction when the ONS survey rate is seeing the data go up.
Best case scenario there is negligible false positives so the rates are going up as shown. Worse case scenario there were false positives meaning the rates are going up faster than shown. Makes the problem worse not better.
Because the most important public policy decisions since the War are being taken based on models and data and we should, as the public, have a complete picture of that data. I don't think we are getting a complete picture. As another example, Manchester Evening News trying to find out how many ICU beds were occupied in the city's hospitals last week.
I am about as far from a conspiracy theorist as you can get, but I share your scepticism. Not because I suspect a conspiracy (as I imagine you don't), but because the level of incompetence shown on these matters and the importance of reliable data. Where that leaves us I am not sure. Whilst having no sympathy for Bozo, I am glad I don't have to make the decisions!
Seriously what is with your obsession about the false positive rate? It is an absolutely irrelevant distraction when the ONS survey rate is seeing the data go up.
Best case scenario there is negligible false positives so the rates are going up as shown. Worse case scenario there were false positives meaning the rates are going up faster than shown. Makes the problem worse not better.
Because the most important public policy decisions since the War are being taken based on models and data and we should, as the public, have a complete picture of that data. I don't think we are getting a complete picture. As another example, Manchester Evening News trying to find out how many ICU beds were occupied in the city's hospitals last week.
Yes but the number of positives isn't the problem, nobody cares if we have some cases, it is the rate of increase that is the problem.
False positives do not and can not explain the increase.
The ICU story is a better one to inquire about rather than the whatabouterism on something entirely tangential to the issue
This continues the theme that is there for the reading. They know he has lost.
The most you could take from this as a Trump supporter would be that he is hoping to fight contended results. But it's a far cry from a victory party setup, that's the point.
Trump thought he had lost on election day 2016, he won
In the EXTREMELY unlikely event that Biden wins will you feel embarrassed?
No as I have never said Biden could not win
Strawman.
Point is, if Biden wins BIG you will have been proved to be an irrational, know nothing blowhard.
You do accept that, one presumes?
No, otherwise I would have got GE19 wrong too, it would just mean you cannot win them all and nothing wrong with that
No you see this is, forgive me, complete rubbish.
Even a broken clock tells the right time twice a day. And that, I'm afraid, sums up your method.
Having called Boris PM and GE19 right if Trump narrowly wins the EC even if Biden wins the popular vote I will probably be one of the if not the most accurate election forecasters on here at the moment
Your arrogance is hilarious.
Especially as he always predicts that the Tories will win. As for example he did for the Brecon by-election, when they didn’t.
Ramping isn’t forecasting.
You can cheer for Arsenal at every match. And Arsenal will win a lot of matches. That doesn’t make you an ace forecaster. Just another fan.
Obviously a good poll for Labour with the Tories on their lowest vote share since mid- 2019.Were Labour to maintain this position, I would expect a significant recovery for the party in Scotland as voters see a real prospect of the Tories being ousted.
IF that's right, beats me why Obama and Biden are rushing there on Saturday.
It's not right, Michigan is closer than that. My feeling with these visits is Biden is making sure of the win, something Clinton didnt do, she assumed the win, So I see visits like this and MN as Biden doing what he can to ensure he wins the states he has to, I understand he's off to PA as well before Tuesday.
Biden has only done 2 state visits this week so far, Trump has done 8 state visits since Sunday
Because Trump is behind in the current state and district polling and basically has been all election season. If the polling had been towards Trump then I am fairly certain lot more high profile democrats would have been stopping off there
If, and its a (as Trump would say) a very bigly IF, Trump wins there are going to be a lot of very red faced pollsters, as if Trump loses the NV by half those numbers he isn't going to win the EV so if he does win some pollsters will have got it very very wrong.
The Github ElectionProject website has over 36 million mail ballots outstanding right now. With only 4 days to go and conventional wisdom being that the mail-ins heavily favour the Dems can someone reassure me that this isn't developing into a problem for Biden? Perhaps SeaShanty can give us a view when he turns up.
It's pretty much all in in Wisconsin, Michigan isn't all that far behind. Pennsylvania was catching up too.
It might remarkably be an issue in Minnesota now due to yesterday's kangaroo court ruling. I think Biden is way too far ahead in Minnesota for it to matter though, really. The one place it could potentially tip the scales to Trump is Florida. Not sure everyone knows their ballot has to be received by election day there ! FLORIDA Unreturned ballots Party Votes cast Shares of votes cast Democratic 684,680 41.6% Republican 511,442 31.1% Other 450,241 27.3% Total 1,646,363 100.0% D-R advantage 173,238
IF that's right, beats me why Obama and Biden are rushing there on Saturday.
It's not right, Michigan is closer than that. My feeling with these visits is Biden is making sure of the win, something Clinton didnt do, she assumed the win, So I see visits like this and MN as Biden doing what he can to ensure he wins the states he has to, I understand he's off to PA as well before Tuesday.
Biden has only done 2 state visits this week so far, Trump has done 8 state visits since Sunday
It's almost as if Biden is respecting the pandemic while Trump is being irresponsible.
It's almost as if Biden is confident because a majority of voters dislike Trump's irresponsibility.
More indicative is Trump effectively cancelling the victory party. Or at least his attendance at it
IF that's right, beats me why Obama and Biden are rushing there on Saturday.
It's not right, Michigan is closer than that. My feeling with these visits is Biden is making sure of the win, something Clinton didnt do, she assumed the win, So I see visits like this and MN as Biden doing what he can to ensure he wins the states he has to, I understand he's off to PA as well before Tuesday.
Biden has only done 2 state visits this week so far, Trump has done 8 state visits since Sunday
Because Trump is behind in the current state and district polling and basically has been all election season. If the polling had been towards Trump then I am fairly certain lot more high profile democrats would have been stopping off there
This continues the theme that is there for the reading. They know he has lost.
The most you could take from this as a Trump supporter would be that he is hoping to fight contended results. But it's a far cry from a victory party setup, that's the point.
Trump thought he had lost on election day 2016, he won
In the EXTREMELY unlikely event that Biden wins will you feel embarrassed?
No as I have never said Biden could not win
Strawman.
Point is, if Biden wins BIG you will have been proved to be an irrational, know nothing blowhard.
You do accept that, one presumes?
No, otherwise I would have got GE19 wrong too, it would just mean you cannot win them all and nothing wrong with that
No you see this is, forgive me, complete rubbish.
Even a broken clock tells the right time twice a day. And that, I'm afraid, sums up your method.
Having called Boris PM and GE19 right if Trump narrowly wins the EC even if Biden wins the popular vote I will probably be one of the if not the most accurate election forecasters on here at the moment
Your arrogance is hilarious.
Especially as he always predicts that the Tories will win. As for example he did for the Brecon by-election, when they didn’t.
Ramping isn’t forecasting.
You can cheer for Arsenal at every match. And Arsenal will win a lot of matches. That doesn’t make you an ace forecaster. Just another fan.
As a Baggie, cheering for the Albion at every match, must make me a s*** forecaster. I call it for Trump!
So there's today + the actual election day to add. Very democrat county.
The Github ElectionProject website has over 36 million mail ballots outstanding right now. With only 4 days to go and conventional wisdom being that the mail-ins heavily favour the Dems can someone reassure me that this isn't developing into a problem for Biden? Perhaps SeaShanty can give us a view when he turns up.
@Pulpstar is that % of 2016 turnout right about Travis or is it 111% of the early turnout in 16? The Texas Tribune site says turnout was 59.8% end Oct 28th vs 63.8% total turnout for 2016
Ok, I see the difference. Travis has added 129K voters since 2016. It's the absolute number is above 2016 but the turnout rate still has to reach that level.
Republicans to win Florida, Democrats to win Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona and New Hampshire. 7/1
I've backed this and covered my stake backing Democrats to win Florida. So I'm left with a bet at approx 3/1 for Democrats to win Mi, Wi, Pa, Az and NH. Not saying it's an odds on shot but happy with those odds.
Republicans to win Florida, Democrats to win Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona and New Hampshire. 7/1
I've backed this and covered my stake backing Democrats to win Florida. So I'm left with a bet at approx 3/1 for Democrats to win Mi, Wi, Pa, Az and NH. Not saying it's an odds on shot but happy with those odds.
Don't have a PP account [they don't like me] but if I did I'd snap that one up. I reckon it's about evens Biden wins Mi/Wi/Pa/Az/NH so you are getting pretty good odds on Trump winning Florida for which he is a justifiable favorite.
Republicans to win Florida, Democrats to win Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona and New Hampshire. 7/1
I've backed this and covered my stake backing Democrats to win Florida. So I'm left with a bet at approx 3/1 for Democrats to win Mi, Wi, Pa, Az and NH. Not saying it's an odds on shot but happy with those odds.
It really annoyed me all those holiday makers gaming their destinations over the summer. I knew someone who booked Portugal and Spain before getting caught out by Croatia. No one needed a foreign holiday this year.
What a fantastic opportunity for the Government to genuinely promote staycations. So OK the Airlines would be in big trouble, but they are anyway, and that plague-free six week window over the summer could have done wonders for domestic tourism.
I went on holiday this year (Turkey). I also went to the Cheltenham festival in March. I also go to see my 90-yr old mother regularly in her house and went this week in fact for a game of chess.
People will do what people have done. "No one needed a foreign holiday this year" is just PB privileged big house and garden bollocks.
And look back up thread as to where that attitude has lead us.
So you are saying that the reason we are having a second wave of Covid is because people went on holiday this year? That article linked above makes just as many assumptions as it supposedly demolishes.
Has anyone done an analysis of viral genomes (ie genetic markers) comparable to that work on Wales? It showed that a significant proportion of outbreaks earlier this summer were actually imported from England (so far as they could tell), rather than simply bubbling up from endemic low level infection. That would be conclusive, not least because if the virus strains hadn't been imported then they wouldn't have caused the outbreaks.
Early on Ceredigion, especially in the South, had very low numbers. It's risen since, but not that much. How much of that rise was due to students at Aberystwyth. Similarly, how much in Pembrokeshire was due to activity, if any, at Pembroke Dock/Milford Haven?
Shurely a rise in southern Ceredigion would be associated with Lampeter university not <spit> Aber?
Comments
The US, of course, continued with pretty much unrestricted domestic aviation, and the 'bans' were a very long way from watertight.
Otherwise those taking a logical and correct approach would always win which is patently nonsense.
Your 2nd sentence seems to imply you do that as well (be logical). Even the bit you describe as gut instinct is based upon something (experience, common sense, observation).
https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1322150686738522112?s=20
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54748633
https://twitter.com/DylanSpielman/status/1322140902098423809
Previous non voters turning out has scuppered a lot of polls in the past.
On 538, the polls are listed as LV or RV, which I understand means turnout adjusted or not, with little difference between the two. In terms of outcome. In which case turnout becomes a wash.
Biden 55 .. Trump 46 .. rounded.
https://www.hofstra.edu/pdf/academics/colleges/hclas/gov-policy-international/kalikow-poll-1020.pdf
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1321945814877556741
I looked at some of the data (theres a LOT), if I read it right Trump is still up with Indys (though by quite a bit less than he was on Clinton), Overall i think it comes out with a Biden lead of about 8% . I haven't delved too deep into all the numbers, am sure others will but they were pretty close in 2016 (in regards the pop vote I mean)
The reaction to that would have been visible from space.
I think that's backed up by the registered Republican early in person vote numbers in states like Florida and Nevada. The dem advantage from mail in is being shredded daily.
But of course nobody knows how any of these people voted, and there are plenty of indie early votes, too.
Biden 54 .. Trump 42
https://election.usc.edu/
https://twitter.com/TravisCoClerk/status/1322018982690541572
So there's today + the actual election day to add. Very democrat county.
https://twitter.com/PeoplesMomentum/status/1322153989593595905?s=20
But who you will vote for should you vote has proved easier to measure than whether you will actually be bothered to do so.
Leave and 2017 polls were largely scuppered by the question of who will vote.
Biden 54 .. Trump 41
https://kiaerresearch.com/oct-2020-poll
https://twitter.com/devisridhar/status/1322130366103257088?s=20
*CI 1.47 to 4.87
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/207534/coronavirus-infections-rising-rapidly-england-react/
Only if they tell us the false positive rate.
Re the polls I don't have any knowledge about the accuracy of any of them other than what has been said here, with the exception of Trafalgar. Following RCS1000 and Alistair's comments I did look into some of it. RCS1000 comments were logical. I checked Alistair's observations and they were accurate. Worth also reading the article Philip linked to today.
I find it difficult to believe they are entirely bogus, but there is definitely something very odd going on there.
HYUFD's reliance on them seems to be entirely based upon they got it right last time. Hence people putting forward the stopped clock argument.
And they might get it right again, but will it be through skill or luck.
If you could choose people randomly from the electoral register, and have a 100% honest response rate, then you wouldn't need to model anything.
So not much bragging rights.
https://twitter.com/STVNews/status/1322155968898179074?s=20
Rasmussen today has black voter support for Trump over 30%.
To be fair, they do offer an explanation for why this might be.
But talk about a chasm...
https://twitter.com/carlbaker/status/1322111078638256128?s=20
Come to think of it, is anyone else here on Good Judgement Open? I'm on there as Quincel, feel free to drop me a follow.
*Boris Johnson is kidnapping people and imprisoning them in the basement of Pizza Express, Dean Street, in Soho.
Best case scenario there is negligible false positives so the rates are going up as shown.
Worse case scenario there were false positives meaning the rates are going up faster than shown. Makes the problem worse not better.
People can be honest in their stated intention. Then not bother.
Actually polling people who voted. Using the same cross on paper and into a box method, at the same location over time, is why the Curtice exit polls are so accurate.
It's almost as if Biden is confident because a majority of voters dislike Trump's irresponsibility.
https://apps.texastribune.org/features/2020/texas-early-voting-numbers/
Biden 53 .. Trump 41 - 1451 RV
Biden 55 .. Trump 41 - 1252 LV
https://www.opinium.com/resource-center/us-presidential-polling-biden-leads-by-14-points-in-final-poll/
However the pollsters did more than alright. Which is why I have confidence in the 2020 polling.
Republicans to win Florida, Democrats to win Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona and New Hampshire. 7/1
I've backed this and covered my stake backing Democrats to win Florida. So I'm left with a bet at approx 3/1 for Democrats to win Mi, Wi, Pa, Az and NH. Not saying it's an odds on shot but happy with those odds.
False positives do not and can not explain the increase.
The ICU story is a better one to inquire about rather than the whatabouterism on something entirely tangential to the issue
Ramping isn’t forecasting.
You can cheer for Arsenal at every match. And Arsenal will win a lot of matches. That doesn’t make you an ace forecaster. Just another fan.
It might remarkably be an issue in Minnesota now due to yesterday's kangaroo court ruling. I think Biden is way too far ahead in Minnesota for it to matter though, really. The one place it could potentially tip the scales to Trump is Florida. Not sure everyone knows their ballot has to be received by election day there !
FLORIDA Unreturned ballots
Party Votes cast Shares of votes cast
Democratic 684,680 41.6%
Republican 511,442 31.1%
Other 450,241 27.3%
Total 1,646,363 100.0%
D-R advantage 173,238
Biden 51 .. Trump 44
.......................................................................
National - Long Island Uni - 1523 LV - 26-27 Oct
Biden 47 .. Trump 36
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/long-island-university-hornstein-center-national-poll-what-america-thinks-about-the-2020-presidential-election-301163295.html