Three days to go before election day and UK punters still rate Trump as a 34% chance – politicalbett
Three days to go before election day and UK punters still rate Trump as a 34% chance – politicalbetting.com
On the biggest political betting market of all time, as the Smarkets chart shows, Biden is rated as a 65% chance which given the polling and the other election predictors looks amazingly generous.
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Damn
1. Normalcy bias.
The belief is that because something happened in 2016 it will repeat again. There's no evidence for this. Not a scrap. But that doesn't stop people.
2. That people lean to the Right
Because some recent elections have produced surprise results on the Right, there is an assumption that when push comes to shove people generally veer that way. There's probably more truth in this.
3. Personal preference
I suspect a lot of punters are themselves right-leaning. Not all, obviously, but I think in many cases the money is coming from people who 'want' a Trump victory. This is a more theoretical explanation and I'm not wedded to it.
Bettors have been wrong before.
Off-topic, it's remarkable that the day after multiple terrorist attacks in France it doesn't appear anywhere (that I can see) on the BBC news homepage. They do, importantly, have headlines on Scarlett Johansson's marriage, Borat, and some hip hop awards.
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1321945814877556741?s=09
This is getting to be like British elections were, apparently, before the secret ballot. Big poster up, men going up and putting a cross beside their favoured candidate and someone keeping a tally.
IIRC, too at the beginning of the 20thC voting in UK was over several days, and some constituencies declared while others were still voting.
What was that about a functioning democracy? Shall be very glad when (if ever) this is all over!
Popped into my local surgery to book a flu vaccine appointment. They gave me no appointment - the nurse just did it there and then. Now I have the rest of a blue sky day with 25 degrees to relax in!
#Ilovealmeriaspain.
Nevertheless we know that California will still be counting in late November and maybe into December, and that is utterly ridiculous.
But it's America. Its a Zoo. Of course its bonkers.
Normalcy bias is the psychological term for a cognitive bias: our tendency to expect that things will continue to occur in the future as the way they have typically occurred in the past (to continue to be “normal”).
It tends to be applied to disasters but that's an application of the theory not its meaning.
Ergo, people are expecting 2020 to repeat 2016. It's a cognitive psychological bias and it affects betting markets particularly. In this case that Trump will outperform the polls again and that Biden will repeat Clinton's 'surprise' loss. Normalcy bias.
Normalcy bias is why people ignore warnings of unlikely events. Hence if I run down the High Street and shout "wolf", I doubt people will run for cover.
It has nothing whatsoever to do with the likelihood - or belief - that an unlikely event may happen again. You can see this from your own definition - despite Trump winning as underdog last time, this very clearly is NOT the way things "have typically occurred in the past", nor was it "normal", nor does something exceptional become "normal" just because it happened once. Or even twice.
The only way you could bring normalcy bias into play is if people are betting on the assumption that the sitting president (almost) always wins a second term. But that isn't what you said, or what you meant, and I doubt that is driving UK betting behaviour, especially during such patently exceptional circumstances as now.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54712917
What a daft electoral system they have.
It is possible that if Biden wins by say 4-5 million votes or more then some of the Electoral College in States he narrowly wins may not support Trump, there were a very small number of such instances last time.
But the forecast looks gloomy, I fear an authoritarian regime will follow.
Re Ballots after polling day, In Australia they are still counting two weeks or more after the event, outlying areas, late deliveries and the forces, so its nothing new.
You need to go back to the roots of the term which are in psychology (about which I know a fair deal). It's a cognitive term for a tendency to expect future events to repeat the pattern from the past. Taking into warnings about unlikely events is an application of the theory. The meaning of normalcy bias in psychology is that we expect future events to repeat patterns that have occurred in the past. If you don't believe me, go away and do some due diligence in the world of psychology and return here when you have learned something.
In this case normalcy bias is affecting people's judgement. They are expecting 2020 to repeat 2016 because the latter has now become a normal cognitive expectation.
I suspect your tetchiness with me previously is allowing you to rush rather breathlessly into any disagreement you can latch onto without stopping to engage your brain. Your own version of a normalcy bias.
EDIT: That chart's quite interesting. There are clear dips in 2014 and 2019. I think that's due to the winters of 2013-14 and 2018-19 being mild.
Trump winning in 2016 against the odds is not "a pattern of events from the past". It's something that happened once, and was viewed as exceptional both at the time and subsequently. People thinking that a freak event might happen again is not normalcy bias. It remains a freak event that happened once. Nor is it a "normal cognitive expectation" - if it were, he'd be favourite. And, as far as election betting is (and UK bettors are) concerned, the favourite does, still, normally win.
US elections are quite bizarre in many ways, but as the Electoral College doesn't meet until Dec, and the new POTUS gets sworn in in Jan, counting late postmarked ballots is not the issue it would be in the UK.
This is an interesting chart on the percentage of late counting by State.
I recall Kentucky and Indiana tend to report first, as polls close early there, and with few late ballots should give a good idea of Swing. Both will stay red of course.
"Mysticrose Posts: 3,399
October 29
Peter from Putney I think Ossoff to win Georgia is a better bet although there are several crackers still available. Ossoff is still 2/1 with Betfair and leading in ALL the recent polls with clear momentum."
Mysticrose - you need to take care not to mislead PBers, especially when it comes to betting recommendations, therefore involving financial risk. The suggestion you made above is quite simply incorrect. On the Betfair Exchange Ossoff's odds are currently shown as being 2.1 in decimal terms, this is NOT 2/1 if expressed in more traditional fractional odds. In fact, net of Betfair's 5% commission, the decimal odds are 2.045 or barely more than Evens (or 2.0), that is to say approximately half the odds you had claimed in your post.
Not sure if you met him when you were in Penarth? His name is Sean Thomas.
That's like saying that there's just too many votes in the ballot box for us to bother counting them all so we'll stop when the results say what we want them to at an arbitrary count without bothering to count them all.
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1322006624630964225?s=19
https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1322038051976048641?s=19
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1322041250300727297?s=19
Ralston has all but called it for the Dems in Nevada. I'm still waiting for the final voter reg numbers.
https://www.itv.com/news/2020-10-30/us-election-2020-colouring-books-and-fly-swatters-the-weird-and-wonderful-trump-and-biden-merchandise-you-can-buy
https://twitter.com/JLPartnersPolls/status/1322073857684082688?s=19
https://twitter.com/Kennyf1283/status/1322079422288199680?s=19
says not much movement, just a little - some towards Trump, some towards Biden.
Of course, it's possible that Trump could win, but to all the posters saying or implying that he is more likely than Biden to win just do this thought experiment:
If a few days before the election Trump was ahead in the national polls, and was 5% ahead (on average) in the most likely tipping point state - Pennsylvania.
But people were arguing that the Biden is still favorite because the polls are rubbish, except (find a pollster that was close in a couple of states in 2016, and this time is an outlier for Biden).
And finding clues in, say, gun sales, or claiming that the fact that the Trump campaign is advertising in swing states shows the campaign knows that they are losing, how would that sound to you?
It would sound like desperate clutching at straws. Of course Biden might still win in that role-reversal situation, but no way would he be favourite.
Its the whole system thats stupid.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3POW9Buw8Ww
Interestingly, most of our discussions back then focussed on the medical consequences - with the wilder predictions of millions of British deaths and a collapsing NHS proving, so far at least, way off the mark.
What I don't recall any of us expecting was quite this level (breadth, depth and duration) of change to the economy and our lifestyles.
2020 looks like it may show a decline in life expectancy.
I wonder how he will mark Boxing Day this year...
Star Spangled Gamblers: The very sharp and funny US Predict It podcast presenters talk to people betting on Trump. I wasn't convinced by any of them but the first one, Boris_G, a Bernie stan, made the most persuasive case I've heard so far.
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-maga-special-trump-bettors-speak/id1437934639?i=1000496445968
Same people the week before, talking to Shadsy of Ladbrokes and Paul Krishnamurty of Betfair. This is fun and fascinating, absolutely do not miss this.
https://starspangledgamblers.com/2020/10/26/the-top-sharks-in-the-uk-weigh-in-on-the-us-election/
Another US betting podcast, also with Paul Krishnamurty. The interviewer isn't as great as the SSG guys but there's some interesting stuff in here, especially about how Betfair has loads of teensy Trump bets, eagerly gobbled up by a small number of Biden whales.
https://www.pscp.tv/w/cmoMTjFlUkt4cXZ3ck5Wand8MW1ueGVsZ3lua1BKWPYKctEm58tQPU6kPCih_VaNoHj8vVrs0ckXa2FIFsWt
The Conservatives will not approve state funded parties so what is the alternative?
https://onedrive.live.com/view.aspx?resid=700FD6570D12A4C1!6780&ithint=file,xlsx&authkey=!ANJLy-VxPT-0lnk
In 2016 Trafalgar was supported by the other polls showing a distinct and fairly rapid decline in Clinton's lead over the last 2 weeks, the district polling was showing even worse figures for her suggesting her statewide polls were being generous to her.
This time round that is not happening, Trafalgar have again shown Trump to be heading to a narrow victory in 2 of the 3, however this time there is no narrowing and the district polls are not leaning Trump either. So in order for Trafalgar to be correct this time round they need the average polling to be even further out with their error AND for the district polling to be even further out than the state polling.
So far the only things that seem to allow Trump to win are the pollsters being wrong by over twice that of 2016 or truly massive vote rigging/fraud, or by some miracle a very fast and steep narrowing of the polls.
To put it simply National, State and District polling are all currently showing no narrowing and point to a Biden victory. So far only republican leaning or commissioned polls show even being close.
I’m disappointed he hasn’t channelled Terry Pratchett to come up with an ID of Altogether Andrews.
Maybe he feels it would be Ron.
The point about all these arguments is that they're not conducted in a vacuum. If there were plentiful polling places for everyone on or before election day, and provision for absentee voting which wasn't actively hampered, then you would be right.
I have little doubt that a Democratic administration with control of both houses will bring in legislation to try to bring in rational rules across the nation. And no doubt that Republicans will try to stop it.
It was both of them.
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/2909294#Comment_2909294
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/2699655#Comment_2699655
https://twitter.com/ChrisHongTU/status/1321884430722617344
Republican voters vote on average later than Democrat ones, so why are the Rs talking about not counting late postal votes?
However, if it does get stuck, just click ‘stop’ and it will load, without tweets.
I do think that everyone is watching the one side of the MoE curve, for a Trump victory, and ignoring the other side, for an equally likely Biden Landslide. I think the latter is where the value is.
Trump has so regularly confounded what were long established norms and got away with his crap found four years now. Understandable how some might think it will just carry on.
Late-arriving mail is far more likely to be Dem, and the place where voter fraud is most likely to occur, because campaigns know who has voted and how many votes they need.
Can he do again? Yes. Only a fool would write off Trump entirely. He has a fairly long history of winning electoral contests that according to the normal rules of politics are unwinnable.
Is he likely to? No. He has to do at least as well as last time and all the evidence we have suggests he’s doing worse.
He also has a number of headwinds to contend with - early voting suggesting higher turnout, a lack of an explanation for the shambolic way he’s handled Covid, a track record of not so much of draining the swamp as swamping the drain, and ultimately no track record of achievement despite four years in office to point to. None of those applied last time.
Plus, he’s up against a candidate who may be wet and ineffectual but isn’t openly divisive and nasty, or deliberately alienating the Democratic base by threatening to put them all out of work.
I’d say he has a 10-15% chance of winning. That’s not no hope, but it is low hope. Last time it was put at 25-30%, so his chances have halved.
He’s not Truman, he’s a crazier more depraved version of Heath.
(There was election fraud by the Republicans in NC in 2018 through...)
That is a sentiment 79 percent of Scottish swing voters agree with, making it the biggest factor driving those on the fence in Scotland towards backing independence.
https://t.co/fWHpqCpRCU
Re.this new indy poll - surely the most simple conclusion here is that Johnson needs to go sooner rather than later? Whether that's quite twigged in the Tory party yet..
I've not seen a plausible reason that the Democrats get so many more votes by post than in person.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-battleground-states-where-weve-seen-some-movement-in-the-polls/
https://twitter.com/Dan_F_Jacobson/status/1321952979927343104?s=19