Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Hunger for change. The messed-up debate about free school meals – politicalbetting.com

1235

Comments

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,910

    And it is spring going into summer there
    There isn't much evidence for seasonality of this virus tbh.
    Admittedly we haven't been through a year yet, but it managed to rage in Summer in Arizona.
  • Alistair said:

    If the 2020 Congressional district polling is in any way indicitive of where things are going it will be a roflstomp.

    I just can't find a source for 2016 congressional polls to cross check.
    It would reset politics across the globe and for the better
  • Frank Bough dead
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,730

    The Covid Modelling Problem is like a ball rolling down a knife-edge ridge, between two deep, deep valleys.

    The ball might roll down the the ridge the whole way, but way more likely, it will end up in the valley on on one side of the ridge, or the other. Small differences in starting position, velocity and angle make a huge difference as to which valley you drop into.

    In one of the valleys, you have suppressed the virus, but destroyed your economy. In the other valley, you have lost complete control of the virus & the pandemic is raging.

    There is only a tiny bit of middle ground on the ridge, so it looks impossible to get the ball down the ridge without it dropping in the valley.

    Can we do it?

    What we have to do is use human behaviour to get the ball safely down the ridge. When the epidemic gets out of control, humans must do better social distancing, so the ball can stay on track & not drop into one valley.

    When the epidemic starts to fade, humans must loosen up to keep the ball on the ridge & not drop into the other valley.

    It is is almost impossible to model this because it needs maths+psychology+economics. There are just huge feedback loops, as the system changes, so does peoples' behaviour.

    You are assuming here there is a ridge and the choice isnt merely which valley. The ridge also may be just be another valley only in this one we have both destroyed the economy and the pandemic is raging.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,910

    It would reset politics across the globe and for the better
    Maybe. Just maybe set the tone for more civil discourse generally.
    One can hope.
  • dixiedean said:

    There isn't much evidence for seasonality of this virus tbh.
    Admittedly we haven't been through a year yet, but it managed to rage in Summer in Arizona.
    The one thing about the weather is it is easier to be outside in spring and summer
  • IanB2 said:

    The UK prime minister and the home secretary are accused of endangering the personal safety of lawyers through their abusive attacks on the profession and should apologise, more than 800 former judges and senior legal figures have said in a letter sent to the Guardian.

    Boris Johnson and Priti Patel are additionally accused in the letter of displaying “hostility” towards lawyers, undermining the rule of law and effectively risking the lives of those working in the justice system.

    The signatories include three former justices of the UK supreme court, five retired appeal court judges, three former high court judges, the lawyer heads of four Oxford University colleges, more than 80 QCs, 69 law professors from leading English universities, the directors of Liberty and Justice, as well as hundreds of law firm partners, barristers and solicitors.

    Once upon a time, they’d all have been Tories.

    To be honest I expect they do not care
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,268
    Alistair said:
    Of course, Biden can still win the Presidency, even losing these three states, by picking up the more probable wins of PA, MI and WI.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,082
    edited October 2020
    dixiedean said:

    There isn't much evidence for seasonality of this virus tbh.
    Admittedly we haven't been through a year yet, but it managed to rage in Summer in Arizona.
    Summer in Arizona doesn’t exactly conjure up images of the population all eating and drinking outdoors in the square, though, does it? Extremely hot weather that drives people indoors in search of air conditioning is just as dangerous as cold and rain.

    It would be ironic if Europe’s better weathering of the summer than the US came down to lack of air conditioning.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,419

    Well this was part of the criticism. His model was made using outdated set of tools, which makes it clear he hasn't updated it and adapted to both flaws of it when it previously hit the real world (i.e. the swing flu), but neither has he kept up with the state of the art mathematical modelling techniques.
    I do hope the public inquiry covers this area, because personally I think it has been utterly woeful and an entire political class has been driven by a prediction engine that basically doesn't predict.
  • dixiedean said:

    Maybe. Just maybe set the tone for more civil discourse generally.
    One can hope.
    It is very much needed
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,910
    edited October 2020

    The one thing about the weather is it is easier to be outside in spring and summer
    True. And I suppose the opposite is true in Arizona. It's easier to do almost anything there outside in Winter.
    Edit. I see @IanB2 has also spotted my failure to think the point through.
    Although Taiwan is an AC heavy, hot, sweaty, crowded, indoor in Summer environment, so who knows?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,371
    edited October 2020

    I do hope the public inquiry covers this area, because personally I think it has been utterly woeful and an entire political class has been driven by a prediction engine that basically doesn't predict.
    Unfortunately, I doubt those conducting such an inquiry will have the expert knowledge to really understand what the likes of myself and MaxPB are talking about. I can foresee instead it all just becoming political and bogged down in who said what when, which email didn't get answered, what Big Dom shouted as the tea lady etc etc etc.

    During phone hacking, it became solely about the characters, the celebs, the politicians, not as only the Indy really looked at, some quite technical stuff, how many companies were exploited, how there was some proper serious hacking and was it justified, etc.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    Pagan2 said:

    You are assuming here there is a ridge and the choice isnt merely which valley. The ridge also may be just be another valley only in this one we have both destroyed the economy and the pandemic is raging.
    I suspect that there is a course of action in which you get a moderately good outcome in terms of both deaths and the economy.

    E.g., Hasn't South Korea done pretty well so far in getting the ball down the ridge?

    Maybe there really is a valley in which you have destroyed your economy AND have a raging pandemic? But it looks like it is way easier to get the ball into one of the other two valleys.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,104
    RMG Research are showing the Montana House race as a dead heat. Seems odd when its been won by the GOP since 1997 and voted overwhelmingly for Trump in 2016.
  • dixiedean said:

    True. And I suppose the opposite is true in Arizona. It's easier to do almost anything there outside in Winter.
    We were in Melbourne in February 2009 and boy was it hot
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,730

    I suspect that there is a course of action in which you get a moderately good outcome in terms of both deaths and the economy.

    E.g., Hasn't South Korea done pretty well so far in getting the ball down the ridge?

    Maybe there really is a valley in which you have destroyed your economy AND have a raging pandemic? But it looks like it is way easier to get the ball into one of the other two valleys.
    South Korea did it by methods which wouldn't be tolerated here. Tools not available to us as they would never be politically palatable to people in europe. Hell we have resistance to the measures the government is proposing let alone the very invasive south korean methods
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,133

    Of course, Biden can still win the Presidency, even losing these three states, by picking up the more probable wins of PA, MI and WI.

    Those numbers look bad for Trump, considering the percentages voted already.
  • Why do I think of SeanT whenever I listen to this song

    BOYS FROM THE COUNTY HELL
    Shane Macgowan

    On the first day of March it was raining
    It was raining worse than anything that I have ever seen
    I drank ten pints of beer and I cursed all the people there
    And I wish that all this raining would stop falling down on me

    And it's lend me ten pounds, I'll buy you a drink
    And mother wake me early in the morning

    At the time I was working for a landlord
    And he was the meanest bastard that you have ever seen
    And to lose a single penny would grieve him awful sore
    And he was a miserable bollocks and a bitch's bastard's whore

    And it's lend me ten pounds, I'll buy you a drink
    And mother wake me early in the morning

    I recall that we took care of him one Sunday
    We got him out the back and we broke his fucking balls
    And maybe that was dreaming and maybe that was real
    But all I know is I left that place without a penny or fuck all

    And it's lend me ten pounds, I'll buy you a drink
    And mother wake me early in the morning

    But now I've the most charming of verandas
    I sit and watch the junkies, the drunks, the pimps, the whores
    Five green bottles sitting on the floor
    I wish to Christ, I wish to Christ that I had fifteen more

    And it's lend me ten pounds, I'll buy you a drink
    And mother wake me early in the morning

    And it's lend me ten pounds, I'll buy you a drink
    And mother wake me early in the morning

    The boys and me are drunk and looking for you
    We'll eat your frigging entrails and we won't give a damn
    Me daddy was a Blue Shirt and my mother a madam
    My brother earned his medals at Mai Lai in Vietnam

    And it's lend me ten pounds, I'll buy you a drink
    And mother wake me early in the morning

    On the first day of March it was raining
    It was raining worse than anything that I have ever seen
    Stay on the other side of the road
    'Cause you can never tell
    We've a thirst like a gang of devils
    We're the boys from the County Hell

    And it's lend me ten pounds, I'll buy you a drink
    And mother wake me early in the morning

    And it's lend me ten pounds and I'll buy you a drink
    And mother wake me early in the morning
  • What was second episode of the big BBC "Tories are all evil scumbags" drama like tonight?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,285
    Foxy said:
    What will happen when they relax their very strict lockdown? I assume they can't carry on with the policy for long without ruining the economy.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,419

    Unfortunately, I doubt those conducting such an inquiry will have the expert knowledge to really understand what the likes of myself and MaxPB are talking about. I can foresee instead it all just becoming political and bogged down in who said what when, which email didn't get answered, what Big Dom shouted as the tea lady etc etc etc.

    During phone hacking, it became solely about the characters, the celebs, the politicians, not as only the Indy really looked at, some quite technical stuff, how many companies were exploited, how there was some proper serious hacking and was it justified, etc.
    I'm so angry about this that I might write to the chair of the inquiry when it is launched. That's how I feel now. Whether I still will in 2025 when the next PM finally launches the inquiry I don't know.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,268
    Foxy said:

    Those numbers look bad for Trump, considering the percentages voted already.
    Agreed, although I suspect Trump will have difficulty understanding that.
  • Pagan2 said:

    South Korea did it by methods which wouldn't be tolerated here. Tools not available to us as they would never be politically palatable to people in europe. Hell we have resistance to the measures the government is proposing let alone the very invasive south korean methods
    Not only wouldn't it be acceptable in the West, they spent 5 years putting together this tech together in response to being hit hard by SARs.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,419

    Of course, Biden can still win the Presidency, even losing these three states, by picking up the more probable wins of PA, MI and WI.

    No way is Biden going to lose PA. Home base.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,730

    Not only wouldn't it be acceptable in the West, they spent 5 years putting together this tech together in response to being hit hard by SARs.
    Thats ok we can put Dido in charge
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    Pagan2 said:

    South Korea did it by methods which wouldn't be tolerated here. Tools not available to us as they would never be politically palatable to people in europe. Hell we have resistance to the measures the government is proposing let alone the very invasive south korean methods
    I happen to agree that they are not palatable .... yet.

    But that is beside the point.

    I am just try to explain why I think the problem is not one of just using tensorflow or deep learning.
  • What was second episode of the big BBC "Tories are all evil scumbags" drama like tonight?

    Life rendered this piece of art (sic) redundant this past week.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,419
    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1320494835422416899/photo/1

    Standby for Johnson world beating vaccine bluster speech this week to hide the 'are there no workhouses?' u-turn.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,268

    RMG Research are showing the Montana House race as a dead heat. Seems odd when its been won by the GOP since 1997 and voted overwhelmingly for Trump in 2016.

    The PVI (Cook Partisan Voting Index) for Montana is R+11. So if Biden were 11 ahead nationally you'd expect Montana to be level

    Just saying.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,910

    RMG Research are showing the Montana House race as a dead heat. Seems odd when its been won by the GOP since 1997 and voted overwhelmingly for Trump in 2016.

    Montana has had Democrat governors since 2005.
    Yes. I was surprised too.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited October 2020

    RMG Research are showing the Montana House race as a dead heat. Seems odd when its been won by the GOP since 1997 and voted overwhelmingly for Trump in 2016.

    In 2018 it was only won by 4 and a half points.

    This is why I am banging on about the utter landslide Congressional District polling is showing.

    If it is at all reliable this Presidential election is more done than a pizza left in the oven of a student flat over night because it was put in by someone returning late from the club who was hungry but then they were so long they forgot about it and then their flatmate discovered it then next day completely black shrunk to a third its size.

    That level of done.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    What was second episode of the big BBC "Tories are all evil scumbags" drama like tonight?

    I bet they have plotted something completely over the top and unbelievable like the caricature evil Tories denying starving children food.
  • RMG Research are showing the Montana House race as a dead heat. Seems odd when its been won by the GOP since 1997 and voted overwhelmingly for Trump in 2016.

    Montana is a big state size-wise but small in population; the US House seat is At-Large, meaning they've only got the one (though MT is projected to gain, or rather re-gain a 2nd seat after 2020 census).

    This means that voters are MUCH closer to statewide electeds than in most of the Union. Throw in traditional Western US political independent streak, and you have plenty of potential for ticket-splitting. Sometimes is very creative ways!
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,730

    I happen to agree that they are not palatable .... yet.

    But that is beside the point.

    I am just try to explain why I think the problem is not one of just using tensorflow or deep learning.
    Part of the problem there is the fault of western governments not just ours but all of them.

    I would be fine if this was something they had and could turn on in extreme circumstances such as covid if I trusted them to a) turn it off again, b) not then go on to sell all the data to their cronies, c) not allow every officious little git in your local council, ngo, private company performing a government contract access to it, d) leave it on an unecryted cd on the train
  • Roy_G_BivRoy_G_Biv Posts: 998
    Pagan2 said:

    South Korea did it by methods which wouldn't be tolerated here. Tools not available to us as they would never be politically palatable to people in europe. Hell we have resistance to the measures the government is proposing let alone the very invasive south korean methods
    Excellent point. There are many factors here, not just economy v uncontrolled epidemic. Privacy, education, trust, individual economic security, infrastructure, cohabitation profiles, communication, global awareness, individual/collective balance, culture, diversity, prevalence of risk factors, and probably several more I'm missing. All of these things guide that ball up and down slopes and valleys.
    It's much more complex than most people seem to realise, and one of the weaknesses we have in this country is the binary nature of politics these days. Too many people seem happy to dismiss something just because Johnson said it, or because Sturgeon supports it, or whatever.
  • 'Covid test in boots' and 'best sex of your life' seem to merge into each other..
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,419

    What was second episode of the big BBC "Tories are all evil scumbags" drama like tonight?

    I thought it was pretty clunky. You can virtually hear the gears changing. The scenes with the PM are just awful. Bit disappointed in the first two episodes to be honest.

    But Birgitte Nyborg is in it briefly, to remind those in the know what a top political TV show is like.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,062
    edited October 2020
    This could never happen here.

    Except it already is.

    From the linked Axios report: Trump last week signed an executive order that set off alarm bells as a means to politicize the civil service. An administration official said the order "is a really big deal" that would make it easier for presidents to get rid of career government officials.
    https://www.axios.com/trump-firing-wray-haspel-esper-088cbd70-3524-4625-91f1-dbc985767c71.html

    Sound familiar? Trump is America's Boris Johnson.
  • Roy_G_BivRoy_G_Biv Posts: 998

    'Covid test in boots' and 'best sex of your life' seem to merge into each other..
    I thought of a swab/deep throat joke, but I won't share that gag.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,910

    'Covid test in boots' and 'best sex of your life' seem to merge into each other..
    Any sex after 50 is the best of your life. It might be your last.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Andy_JS said:

    We can't defeat Covid. We just have to manage it as best we can.

    Yes, the idea that it can be beaten is insidious nonsense. It can be mitigated, those at most risk can be protected, we can get better at treating it, but it won’t ever be vanquished. This needs to be said more often.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,268
    Alistair said:

    In 2018 it was only won by 4 and a half points.

    This is why I am banging on about the utter landslide Congressional District polling is showing.

    If it is at all reliable this Presidential election is more done than a pizza left in the oven of a student flat over night because it was put in by someone returning late from the club who was hungry but then they were so long they forgot about it and then their flatmate discovered it then next day completely black shrunk to a third its size.

    That level of done.
    Was that pizza with or without pineapple?
  • Yes, the idea that it can be beaten is insidious nonsense. It can be mitigated, those at most risk can be protected, we can get better at treating it, but it won’t ever be vanquished. This needs to be said more often.
    Not easy to protect the vulnerable in reality until there is a vaccine.

    It's won't kill of the problem, but will make it a lot easier to manage.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,104
    SurveyMonkey just dropped a whole load of new state polls. Highlights:

    General Election
    Biden 52%
    Trump 46%

    Arizona
    Biden 53%
    Trump 45%

    Florida
    Trump 49%
    Biden 48%

    North Carolina
    Biden 52%
    Trump 46%

    Nevada
    Biden 50%
    Trump 49%

    Ohio
    Trump 51%
    Biden 48%

    Pennsylvania
    Biden 52%
    Trump 46%

    Georgia
    Biden 50%
    Trump 49%

    Michigan
    Biden 53%
    Trump 45%

    Texas
    Trump 51%
    Biden 48%

    Wisconsin
    Biden 55%
    Trump 43%
  • dixiedean said:

    Montana has had Democrat governors since 2005.
    Yes. I was surprised too.
    Until a few years ago it was common for Western States that were reliably Republican voting for President and (usually) US Senate & House to vote in Democrats as Governor.

    On reason Montana has kept on doing so, is because unlike it's neighbors Idaho and Wyoming is is less dominated by Republicans, thus giving more scope to swing voters & ticket-splitters.
  • twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1320494835422416899/photo/1

    Standby for Johnson world beating vaccine bluster speech this week to hide the 'are there no workhouses?' u-turn.

    Timeline slipping further....know by end of December...
  • Yes, the idea that it can be beaten is insidious nonsense. It can be mitigated, those at most risk can be protected, we can get better at treating it, but it won’t ever be vanquished. This needs to be said more often.
    It was said at the beginning of this by the likes of Witty, then we got into all this nonsense of be sorted by summer, by September, by the end of the year.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,730
    Roy_G_Biv said:

    Excellent point. There are many factors here, not just economy v uncontrolled epidemic. Privacy, education, trust, individual economic security, infrastructure, cohabitation profiles, communication, global awareness, individual/collective balance, culture, diversity, prevalence of risk factors, and probably several more I'm missing. All of these things guide that ball up and down slopes and valleys.
    It's much more complex than most people seem to realise, and one of the weaknesses we have in this country is the binary nature of politics these days. Too many people seem happy to dismiss something just because Johnson said it, or because Sturgeon supports it, or whatever.
    The argument over free school meals is such an example. Sadly in this country while I as a voter would like politicians to expound policies they believe will help solve a problem then produce evidence it worked or abandon if they find it doesnt and use results to garner votes, instead they propose policies that they think will get votes and dont give a damn if they work or not as no one can actually find out for sure if they had an effect or not.

    Earlier tonight I asked Nick Palmer an ex mp for evidence that the extra 20£ a week on uc had reduced malnourished children as his party was proposing another 15£ a week as a cure to the problem. Not because I was singling him out but because I figured he probably had access to people that could get that answer.

    If there is evidence it made good inroads on the problem I would change my mind on the extra 15£ a week. I suspect there isn't however else the tories would be trumpeting it.

    For me as a non partisan in as much as I call both tory and labour posters up when I think they are talking bs the "Not does it sound good but does it work and is it value for money" is important
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,419

    This could never happen here.

    Except it already is.

    From the linked Axios report: Trump last week signed an executive order that set off alarm bells as a means to politicize the civil service. An administration official said the order "is a really big deal" that would make it easier for presidents to get rid of career government officials.
    https://www.axios.com/trump-firing-wray-haspel-esper-088cbd70-3524-4625-91f1-dbc985767c71.html

    Sound familiar? Trump is America's Boris Johnson.
    Does it never occur to these people that when the other side take power they will have the same tools available to them if you do this kind of change?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Foxy said:
    Erm, how so? It has had an oppressive lockdown which reduced the great city of Melbourne to the daily excitement levels of Leicester. Anyone can stop Covid temporarily by hiding under the bed.

    It hasn’t ‘cracked’ anything.
  • I'm so angry about this that I might write to the chair of the inquiry when it is launched. That's how I feel now. Whether I still will in 2025 when the next PM finally launches the inquiry I don't know.
    And if it happens in 2025 the report will likely be released in 2030 plus
  • Roy_G_Biv said:

    I thought of a swab/deep throat joke, but I won't share that gag.
    'Just call me Long Covid'
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    I reckon Melania has voted Biden.
    Agreed.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,104
    ME2 now red on 538.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    dixiedean said:

    Montana has had Democrat governors since 2005.
    Yes. I was surprised too.
    Democratic governors of reliably red states and Republican governors of reliably blue states are not as uncommon as one would think. Americans are often leery about handing all the keys to one party, especially at state level. If one party has a lock or near lock on the state legislature, then it can allow the other party’s candidate for the executive mansion to run as a brake on their opponents’ absolute power.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Is there a possible (not probable) scenario whereby Biden wins NC and TX but fails to flip FL and the rustbelt states? I dunno, I know it’s unlikely, but could it happen?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,906

    ME2 now red on 538.

    OMG. That means Trump is going to win again, doesn't it?
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    Frank Bough dead

    From wiki,

    "Bough was born in Fenton, Stoke-on-Trent, Staffordshire. He was educated at Oswestry Boys' High School (a Shropshire County Council secular grammar school after passing his eleven-plus exam), Oswestry, Shropshire, and at Merton College, Oxford, where he studied Shipping Management."

    An Honours degree in Shipping Management at Merton College, Oxford ...
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    SurveyMonkey just dropped a whole load of new state polls. Highlights:

    General Election
    Biden 52%
    Trump 46%

    Arizona
    Biden 53%
    Trump 45%

    Florida
    Trump 49%
    Biden 48%

    North Carolina
    Biden 52%
    Trump 46%

    Nevada
    Biden 50%
    Trump 49%

    Ohio
    Trump 51%
    Biden 48%

    Pennsylvania
    Biden 52%
    Trump 46%

    Georgia
    Biden 50%
    Trump 49%

    Michigan
    Biden 53%
    Trump 45%

    Texas
    Trump 51%
    Biden 48%

    Wisconsin
    Biden 55%
    Trump 43%

    Generally good for Biden - but NV will worry him.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,133

    Erm, how so? It has had an oppressive lockdown which reduced the great city of Melbourne to the daily excitement levels of Leicester. Anyone can stop Covid temporarily by hiding under the bed.

    It hasn’t ‘cracked’ anything.
    Well, Leicester has had restrictions per Tier2 or worse, for 7 months now, and is in a significantly worse place for Covid-19

    SurveyMonkey just dropped a whole load of new state polls. Highlights:

    General Election
    Biden 52%
    Trump 46%

    Arizona
    Biden 53%
    Trump 45%

    Florida
    Trump 49%
    Biden 48%

    North Carolina
    Biden 52%
    Trump 46%

    Nevada
    Biden 50%
    Trump 49%

    Ohio
    Trump 51%
    Biden 48%

    Pennsylvania
    Biden 52%
    Trump 46%

    Georgia
    Biden 50%
    Trump 49%

    Michigan
    Biden 53%
    Trump 45%

    Texas
    Trump 51%
    Biden 48%

    Wisconsin
    Biden 55%
    Trump 43%

    Those results look quite likely to me. Sometimes all the corrections, adjustments and weighting etc just make a mess of the raw data.

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,268

    Generally good for Biden - but NV will worry him.
    This would probably calm his nerves re NV:

    https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-3
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,716
    Pagan2 said:

    South Korea did it by methods which wouldn't be tolerated here. Tools not available to us as they would never be politically palatable to people in europe. Hell we have resistance to the measures the government is proposing let alone the very invasive south korean methods
    Japan has similar results to Korea with a surveillance system consisting of a version of the gapple app downloaded by nobody except me, and the techology to send faxes in colour.

    Beyond taking contact details at venues I'm not sure the initial idea of using payment records and mobile data and to trace people's movements ever really worked out, since it turns out the virus mainly transmits in close contact settings, and you generally know who you were in contact with better than your phone or your credit card does.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,285
    edited October 2020
    Maine 2nd has flipped from Biden to Trump with 538's projection.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/maine-2/
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,730
    Pro_Rata said:

    On topic: I can't remember how long I was on free school meals in the 1980s, maybe 2-3 years. As another_richard said yesterday, it certainly isn't something that is spoken about at the school gate, but not because it isn't there.

    My folks bobbled along reasonably through most of their working life, white collar and factory jobs, owner occupation, never that much money, but OK. The tricky years came with what was then termed a nervous breakdown, now perhaps would be termed PTSD, as my father had been caught up in two major incidents in his working lunch hours, in the latter of which there had been numerous deaths, something I only fully knew about in the last couple of years.

    Money dried up. Mum did restart work during the period when she could, but free school meals was one of the results. In fact, we had a budget of £60 per week max at that stage for weekly shopping, including toiletries and detergents, for a family of 6. I was taken to the shop for mental calculator services and cash was used. It did affect meals, eggs were the protein some days, beans were the veg others - mixed in with some fresher veg and meat meals. I don't remember going hungry, let alone starving (and there is a difference between those two things), but that said I arrived at university nearly 6ft tall and a smidge under 9st.

    Now, we were poorer for my Dad's habits (a steady few pints every night, a steady 20 a day), and any abatement during his illness was temporary. These things were not ideal but affordable in normal times, they were certainly regarded as feckless within the house at that point. The difference between what would be seen as not atypical behaviour and fecklessness was simply a change of circumstance - but ultimately we got what we got from the state without prejudice and managed how we managed.

    And in that, I'd make this point - in most circumstances in which you might like to separate deserving from undeserving, those efforts are likely to be so difficult and invasive to (not) get right, so counterproductive to many that, why bother? Save it for those who really need the undeserving treatment - those in the social care system who are genuinely harming their kids, save it for insisting on best expectation in schools. Keep deservingness at the very edge when it's comes to welfare, a hard life for sure, but reliably there when needed and light on arbitrary judgement.

    Today, we have UC's whims, from a cost led deserving vs undeserving drive which is a blind alley (and let's not let off the Blair government in getting here). In widespread bad times, extra feeding will be a boon to many, not life and death, but it still might be fitting shoes or jumpers or the heating bill. The government may not wish to take this on themselves but they could put into the community schemes ad-hoc, many big society efforts get government backing. The attempted demonisation of MR has been plain ugly, politically imbecilic and, yes, scummy.

    Sounds similar to my childhood however to point out to you while you specify the 1980's you dont specify the year. Taking 1985 as the midpoint therefore 60 a week equates to 183£ today
    source https://www.in2013dollars.com/uk/inflation/1985?amount=60

    Your family of 6 however would now be elegible for

    488.89+ 281.25+(3x235.83) = 1477.63 a month or 340£ a week

    source
    https://www.gov.uk/universal-credit/what-youll-get

    That is on top of your council tax rebate housing costs and child benefit payments
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,483
    Those Trafalgar poll details... will we see their like again ?
    (Probably not, as they’ve already been taken down.)

    https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1320446999821508609
  • Pro_Rata said:

    On topic: I can't remember how long I was on free school meals in the 1980s, maybe 2-3 years. As another_richard said yesterday, it certainly isn't something that is spoken about at the school gate, but not because it isn't there.

    My folks bobbled along reasonably through most of their working life, white collar and factory jobs, owner occupation, never that much money, but OK. The tricky years came with what was then termed a nervous breakdown, now perhaps would be termed PTSD, as my father had been caught up in two major incidents in his working lunch hours, in the latter of which there had been numerous deaths, something I only fully knew about in the last couple of years.

    Money dried up. Mum did restart work during the period when she could, but free school meals was one of the results. In fact, we had a budget of £60 per week max at that stage for weekly shopping, including toiletries and detergents, for a family of 6. I was taken to the shop for mental calculator services and cash was used. It did affect meals, eggs were the protein some days, beans were the veg others - mixed in with some fresher veg and meat meals. I don't remember going hungry, let alone starving (and there is a difference between those two things), but that said I arrived at university nearly 6ft tall and a smidge under 9st.

    Now, we were poorer for my Dad's habits (a steady few pints every night, a steady 20 a day), and any abatement during his illness was temporary. These things were not ideal but affordable in normal times, they were certainly regarded as feckless within the house at that point. The difference between what would be seen as not atypical behaviour and fecklessness was simply a change of circumstance - but ultimately we got what we got from the state without prejudice and managed how we managed.

    And in that, I'd make this point - in most circumstances in which you might like to separate deserving from undeserving, those efforts are likely to be so difficult and invasive to (not) get right, so counterproductive to many that, why bother? Save it for those who really need the undeserving treatment - those in the social care system who are genuinely harming their kids, save it for insisting on best expectation in schools. Keep deservingness at the very edge when it's comes to welfare, a hard life for sure, but reliably there when needed and light on arbitrary judgement.

    Today, we have UC's whims, from a cost led deserving vs undeserving drive which is a blind alley (and let's not let off the Blair government in getting here). In widespread bad times, extra feeding will be a boon to many, not life and death, but it still might be fitting shoes or jumpers or the heating bill. The government may not wish to take this on themselves but they could put into the community schemes ad-hoc, many big society efforts get government backing. The attempted demonisation of MR has been plain ugly, politically imbecilic and, yes, scummy.

    Thank you for this, one of the best reasoned arguments for free school meals and similar programs aimed at helping poor children and families Indeed, a 21st century update of classic British argument against means testing.

    In thinking about recent episode where Labour MP hurled "scum" across the floor of the House of Common in response to government decision re: school meals, was reminded by similar scenes in H o C almost a century ago.

    This was when Conservative government of that day made similar cuts to school meals. Which prompted the new Independent Labour Party MP James Maxon and other ILPers, mostly from Glasgow, to rise up in very vocal opposition.

    So much so that Maxton caused an uproar in the House, and garnered prominent headlines, by calling the Tory front bench a pack of "murderers".

    And when he refused to withdraw - despite urging from Labour leader Ramsey Macdonald, whom he was (at that time) supporting - Maxton refused, and was suspended for a period from parliament.

    He never did withdraw that remark, or apologize for it. Thus it is interesting to note that a quarter-century later when he died, still a Glasgow ILP MP, after opposing declaration of war against both the Germans AND the Japanese, Winston Churchill called James Maxton "the greatest gentleman in the House of Commons".
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,285
    Chris said:

    OMG. That means Trump is going to win again, doesn't it?
    No but it means it could be closer than people expect.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,371
    edited October 2020
    https://twitter.com/ConflictsW/status/1320501273662283776?s=20

    It was 100% at killing coronavirus, based on 0 tested coronavirus cases.....
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,738

    The easiest way to get a 100% record in killing the virus is to kill the host. Perhaps they're treating it with cyanide.
  • LadyGLadyG Posts: 2,221
    If anyone needs something scary and diverting, I recommend The Haunting of Hill House, a very clever Netflix series, which is a reworking of the famous Shirley Jackson novel from the 1950s (one of the few truly unsettling ghost stories)

    It is cheesy in parts but it gets significantly better. The Bent Neck Lady episode is whoah
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,730


    The easiest way to get a 100% record in killing the virus is to kill the host. Perhaps they're treating it with cyanide.
    Well that will get the greens up in arms, an iron bar to the back of the head is both eco friendly and reuseable. Who knew the khmer rouge were closet greens
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,910
    edited October 2020
    The craziest of craziest. A cure a week before the election...but Trump has sanctions on them...
    Don't believe it for a second, but that would really put the top hat on it all.
    And wrap a big bow round it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,883
    Nigelb said:
    RCP was more accurate than 538 in 2016 as was Trafalgar in the key rustbelt swing states
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Bleach probably does the trick.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,423
    Sounds like they'll be ready for some big incompetency scandals once they are independent - it's a rite of passage for all nations.
  • LadyG said:

    If anyone needs something scary and diverting, I recommend The Haunting of Hill House, a very clever Netflix series, which is a reworking of the famous Shirley Jackson novel from the 1950s (one of the few truly unsettling ghost stories)

    It is cheesy in parts but it gets significantly better. The Bent Neck Lady episode is whoah

    "The Lottery" by SJ was scary enough for me.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,423
    It won't end. The argument will be why not in the first place, probably arguments over the amount, and disputes over what to do next. But it will dampen it down for a time if he does that, though perhaps piss off those who had to go out and defend it.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,371
    edited October 2020
    kle4 said:

    It won't end. The argument will be why not in the first place, probably arguments over the amount, and disputes over what to do next. But it will dampen it down for a time if he does that, though perhaps piss off those who had to go out and defend it.
    Well and once you start U-Turning (after initially digging in), everybody knows they can keep pushing you. If you have messed up, you need to get on top of it quickly, say we made a mistake, thanks for alerting us to it and sort it....digging in, then u-turning, is the worst of both worlds.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,423
    edited October 2020
    LadyG said:

    If anyone needs something scary and diverting, I recommend The Haunting of Hill House, a very clever Netflix series, which is a reworking of the famous Shirley Jackson novel from the 1950s (one of the few truly unsettling ghost stories)

    It is cheesy in parts but it gets significantly better. The Bent Neck Lady episode is whoah

    I'll confess to being a big pansy and say I find it hard to handle creepy and scary things. I put it down to seeing IT when I was 5. I was hugely uncomfortable when I saw Hereditary, apart from a scene where I burst out laughing at what was probably meant to be a horrifying moment.
  • dixiedean said:

    The craziest of craziest. A cure a week before the election...but Trump has sanctions on them...
    Don't believe it for a second, but that would really put the top hat on it all.
    And wrap a big bow round it.
    Maduro is the Putinist left hand that the Trumpsky right hand knows (or is supposed to know) nothing about.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,483
    Andy_JS said:

    Despite a strict lockdown.
    Is it ?
    I thought they’d merely introduced a curfew.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,423
    HYUFD said:
    They might be wrong, but crowd size will have nothing to do with whether they are. Corbyn said the same thing.
  • HYUFD said:
    When Trump loses I wonder becomes of the MAGA army?
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,730

    When Trump loses I wonder becomes of the MAGA army?
    I think we should be very worried personally. I have heard a lot mock the americans for their right to bear arms. They say stuff like how will they stand up to the us army with their tanks and sophisticated weapons.

    One word for that Afghanistan

    tribesmen armed mostly ak47's and what other ordinance they could scrounge gave the russians first then the americans and allies a run for their money
This discussion has been closed.