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Hunger for change. The messed-up debate about free school meals – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,169
edited October 2020 in General
Hunger for change. The messed-up debate about free school meals – politicalbetting.com

Ever been more proud of being British?! And we’re still going, wow wow wow ??#ENDCHILDFOODPOVERTY pic.twitter.com/zMchidIAAI

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Comments

  • First - So people can see the thread.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,877

    First - So people can see the thread.

    A miserly second
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,098
    edited October 2020
    "As well as strongly supporting Marcus Rashford’s campaign, they could also be talking at the same time about how to improve parenting, offering a muscular socialism of the family."

    These days, any suggestion of poor parenting in relation to anything, is the quickest way to have the twitterverse pile on you.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,669
    edited October 2020
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    https://twitter.com/npfandos/status/1320420444810350594?s=19

    Pack the court Joe. Ram that mother fucker full to bursting.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,132
    However the fact they give Biden 25% of the GOP vote shows they are not just set up solely to favour Trump
  • ... and kudos to Alastair for the sentence "Only their most fervent supporters are going to accept that drug dealers are operating Hovis for heroin schemes". Chapeau!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,669
    edited October 2020

    ... and kudos to Alastair for the sentence "Only their most fervent supporters are going to accept that drug dealers are operating Hovis for heroin schemes". Chapeau!

    Mind you I was convinced the price of pasta at the start of lockdown was part of some elaborate county lines drug trafficking scheme.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    FPT @ ea Shanty

    Drove to VA via WV yesterday via rural MD panhandle. Remarkably few political signs or posters given how much energy there clearly is in this election. I am not sure whether that signifies anything, or just that electronic media have taken over from hard copy.

    I am picking up the same vibe as you - both sides see this as an end-of-the-world type election should the other side win. Trump's core is obdurate and energized. The Dems are using Trump very effectively to get their own base out and to bring in new voters (which I do not sense Trump is - he is rather retaining existing voters more effectively than I would have imagined).

    As for GA, the only person I know there other than TimB is an avid Trump man. But I have got to believe that the demographic directions, historical under-voting in some demos, and the sheer numbers voting this time must be a very good sign for Biden and Dems the whole length of the ticket.

    If you mean by Crackers natural conservatives who could not support Trump, I think most would want the GOP not just to lose the White House but to be given an thorough nut kicking in both Houses so that the party can be rid of the novel SARS-Trump-16 virus.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    HYUFD said:

    However the fact they give Biden 25% of the GOP vote shows they are not just set up solely to favour Trump
    :D
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421

    ... and kudos to Alastair for the sentence "Only their most fervent supporters are going to accept that drug dealers are operating Hovis for heroin schemes". Chapeau!

    Even Hyufd has been a bit careful how he defends them over this one.
  • Alistair said:

    https://twitter.com/npfandos/status/1320420444810350594?s=19

    Pack the court Joe. Ram that mother fucker full to bursting.

    Cheer up. McConnell seems to be conceding defeat already.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    I was surprised to see Cannock Chase is one of the areas with the highest infection rates.

    That would explain why there is talk we’re about to be shoved in a higher tier.

    Which would be an embuggerance from my point of view given I live in Cannock Chase but work and therefore shop elsewhere.
  • Looks like Germany's covid cases are doubling every 7 days. Gulp.
  • ydoethur said:

    I was surprised to see Cannock Chase is one of the areas with the highest infection rates.

    That would explain why there is talk we’re about to be shoved in a higher tier.

    Which would be an embuggerance from my point of view given I live in Cannock Chase but work and therefore shop elsewhere.
    Back in August when it seemed that I may have to go back into the office for a couple of days and Manchester was under stricter restrictions it wasn't clear if I was allowed to do anything in Manchester except work, not even go to the shops to get lunch.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,877
    Well having now read the thread header I do wonder what drugs tory mp's are snorting. The most stupid and facile arguments ever. By all means I think there are arguments against it the main one in my opinion is that giving vouchers won't change a damn thing in those kids lives. An argument that people can certainly disagree with but at least an honest one rather that trash.
  • C4 news, latest Tory mp excuse: it's Labour's fault for timing this row which to make us look bad.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Alistair said:

    https://twitter.com/npfandos/status/1320420444810350594?s=19

    Pack the court Joe. Ram that mother fucker full to bursting.

    Cheer up. McConnell seems to be conceding defeat already.
    Yes, there's a lot to unpack in that tweet.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    Alistair said:

    https://twitter.com/npfandos/status/1320420444810350594?s=19

    Pack the court Joe. Ram that mother fucker full to bursting.

    Could impeach Kavanaugh for allegedly lying to Congress?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    Pagan2 said:

    Well having now read the thread header I do wonder what drugs tory mp's are snorting.

    You are Dennis Skinner and I claim my £5.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,713
    ydoethur said:

    I was surprised to see Cannock Chase is one of the areas with the highest infection rates.

    That would explain why there is talk we’re about to be shoved in a higher tier.

    Which would be an embuggerance from my point of view given I live in Cannock Chase but work and therefore shop elsewhere.

    Looks like Germany's covid cases are doubling every 7 days. Gulp.

    There's a lot of it about.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421

    C4 news, latest Tory mp excuse: it's Labour's fault for timing this row which to make us look bad.

    If that were true, it would be very wrong of Labour. How dare they engage in halfway competent opposition to a government policy cockup?
  • Where pb leads, 538 follows.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,697

    Looks like Germany's covid cases are doubling every 7 days. Gulp.

    Italy looks very bad.

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1320395270052548610
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275
    HYUFD said:

    However the fact they give Biden 25% of the GOP vote shows they are not just set up solely to favour Trump
    The fact they give both camps ridiculous amounts of crossover support should mean that the poll is garbage and Trump isn’t going to win independents by 45 points . Please find me another poll out of the hundreds we’ve had that show anything like those figures ?
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,877
    ydoethur said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Well having now read the thread header I do wonder what drugs tory mp's are snorting.

    You are Dennis Skinner and I claim my £5.
    I think you probably just insulted Dennis Skinner I have been accused of many things but never being to the the left
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421

    Looks like Germany's covid cases are doubling every 7 days. Gulp.

    Italy looks very bad.

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1320395270052548610
    About the only faintly comforting thing about all this is it doesn’t seem to matter how useless the government is or how well or badly they deal with it. Unless you run a semi-totalitarian state or are a thousand miles from the next landmass so can enforce travel restrictions easily, you end up getting clobbered.

    The problem is, that may be comforting politically but it’s bloody disturbing medically.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    Pagan2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Well having now read the thread header I do wonder what drugs tory mp's are snorting.

    You are Dennis Skinner and I claim my £5.
    I think you probably just insulted Dennis Skinner I have been accused of many things but never being to the the left
    Click on the link.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065
    nico679 said:

    HYUFD said:

    However the fact they give Biden 25% of the GOP vote shows they are not just set up solely to favour Trump
    The fact they give both camps ridiculous amounts of crossover support should mean that the poll is garbage and Trump isn’t going to win independents by 45 points . Please find me another poll out of the hundreds we’ve had that show anything like those figures ?
    But it's Trafalgar, and they got it right last time.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    TimT said:

    FPT @ ea Shanty

    Drove to VA via WV yesterday via rural MD panhandle. Remarkably few political signs or posters given how much energy there clearly is in this election. I am not sure whether that signifies anything, or just that electronic media have taken over from hard copy.

    I am picking up the same vibe as you - both sides see this as an end-of-the-world type election should the other side win. Trump's core is obdurate and energized. The Dems are using Trump very effectively to get their own base out and to bring in new voters (which I do not sense Trump is - he is rather retaining existing voters more effectively than I would have imagined).

    As for GA, the only person I know there other than TimB is an avid Trump man. But I have got to believe that the demographic directions, historical under-voting in some demos, and the sheer numbers voting this time must be a very good sign for Biden and Dems the whole length of the ticket.

    If you mean by Crackers natural conservatives who could not support Trump, I think most would want the GOP not just to lose the White House but to be given an thorough nut kicking in both Houses so that the party can be rid of the novel SARS-Trump-16 virus.

    I think that is absolutely spot on about both sides seeing this as an “end of world” vote. Put bluntly, though, two thirds of the electorate are still white and, outside the Twitter / Graduate class, I can’t imagine they are looking forward to a future which they imagine will involve them being seen (and their values) as to be outdated. Ironically, looking at Black turnout rates for EV where they are available it doesn’t seem the Summer’s events have caused massive enthusiasm to vote (hence why Obama was sent to Florida).

    You also have an issue here on the Hispanic vote. This has incredibly been under sampled in this election but there are plenty of signals that Hispanics feel they have been ignored in this campaign, at least outside specific places in Florida. Hispanic turnout in NC, for example, looks low.

    Finally, because of CV, the Democrats will get impacted on what have been two of their most successful GOTV strategies, namely “souls to the polls” (Black voters) and college students given the disruption to campuses.

    Ralston in Nevada thinks it could go either way - a state the Democrats won last time. Bitzer’s latest missive suggests NC is very much up in the air. Not really landslide territory
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065
    nico679 said:

    HYUFD said:

    However the fact they give Biden 25% of the GOP vote shows they are not just set up solely to favour Trump
    The fact they give both camps ridiculous amounts of crossover support should mean that the poll is garbage and Trump isn’t going to win independents by 45 points . Please find me another poll out of the hundreds we’ve had that show anything like those figures ?
    But it's Trafalgar, and they got it right last time.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    The poor headlines write themselves with these sorts of stories, how hard is it to create a system which doesn't (intentionally or otherwise) mess veterans about like this?
  • ydoethur said:

    ... and kudos to Alastair for the sentence "Only their most fervent supporters are going to accept that drug dealers are operating Hovis for heroin schemes". Chapeau!

    Even Hyufd has been a bit careful how he defends them over this one.
    There is no defence and another u turn must follow
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065

    Looks like Germany's covid cases are doubling every 7 days. Gulp.


    Someone tried to arson the Robert Koch Institute last night.
    Crazy. What were they hoping to do, burn all the data the RKI are collecting?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    eristdoof said:

    nico679 said:

    HYUFD said:

    However the fact they give Biden 25% of the GOP vote shows they are not just set up solely to favour Trump
    The fact they give both camps ridiculous amounts of crossover support should mean that the poll is garbage and Trump isn’t going to win independents by 45 points . Please find me another poll out of the hundreds we’ve had that show anything like those figures ?
    But it's Trafalgar, and they got it right last time.
    It is useful to know why people get things right. Evidence, analysis, luck, will of the gods, etc. All us can call a coin toss correctly after all, we want the ones who can do it repeatedly.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275
    edited October 2020
    Good of Mark Meadows , WH Chief of Staff to write the Dems next attack ad to go up . “ We are not going to control the pandemic “ .

    Trumps “we’ve rounded the corner” is like the band playing on the Titanic , the more he says this the more it pisses off even more people .
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787

    Alistair said:

    https://twitter.com/npfandos/status/1320420444810350594?s=19

    Pack the court Joe. Ram that mother fucker full to bursting.

    Could impeach Kavanaugh for allegedly lying to Congress?
    Conviction after impeachment would require a 2/3 majority of the Senate though. That’s not going to happen for the Democrats any time soon and certainly not this cycle.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited October 2020
    You need to pay attention to where they are campaigning they said...

    https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/1320431713021878272?s=19
  • ydoethur said:

    Looks like Germany's covid cases are doubling every 7 days. Gulp.

    Italy looks very bad.

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1320395270052548610
    About the only faintly comforting thing about all this is it doesn’t seem to matter how useless the government is or how well or badly they deal with it. Unless you run a semi-totalitarian state or are a thousand miles from the next landmass so can enforce travel restrictions easily, you end up getting clobbered.

    The problem is, that may be comforting politically but it’s bloody disturbing medically.
    Very good comment
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    FYI, on the 2016 reluctant Trumpstere now turning into enthusiastic ones. Highlights a few themes @TimT talked about

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/10/25/2016s_reluctant_trumpers_are_2020s_avid_trumpers.html
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    ydoethur said:

    I was surprised to see Cannock Chase is one of the areas with the highest infection rates.

    That would explain why there is talk we’re about to be shoved in a higher tier.

    Which would be an embuggerance from my point of view given I live in Cannock Chase but work and therefore shop elsewhere.
    And sadly the regulations cover people living within a tier area even when they are travelling outside of it.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Alistair said:

    You need to pay attention to where they are campaigning they said...

    https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/1320431713021878272?s=19

    And Trump going to New Hampshire and Nevada, while piling money into Minnesota.

    If The Democrats really thought Texas was in play, they would send Joe. Kamala is probably more of an asset for the state elections
  • IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    I was surprised to see Cannock Chase is one of the areas with the highest infection rates.

    That would explain why there is talk we’re about to be shoved in a higher tier.

    Which would be an embuggerance from my point of view given I live in Cannock Chase but work and therefore shop elsewhere.
    And sadly the regulations cover people living within a tier area even when they are travelling outside of it.
    Not for business

    My son in law travels to Airbus for work and outside Conwy CBC
  • glwglw Posts: 9,908

    Looks like Germany's covid cases are doubling every 7 days. Gulp.

    This is why the point about being too early with lockdowns matters. If a population will only consent to a full lockdown for a certain amount of time you want to aim at the biggest wave, which is not necessarily the first one. It already seems clear that a lot of countries that fared quite well in the first wave are going get battered over this winter.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    I was surprised to see Cannock Chase is one of the areas with the highest infection rates.

    That would explain why there is talk we’re about to be shoved in a higher tier.

    Which would be an embuggerance from my point of view given I live in Cannock Chase but work and therefore shop elsewhere.
    And sadly the regulations cover people living within a tier area even when they are travelling outside of it.
    Not for business

    My son in law travels to Airbus for work and outside Conwy CBC
    What you mean is, business is an exemption in the regulations, not that the regulations do not apply.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,720
    Dismal report from Tom Jefferson & Carl Heneghan
    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/The-ten-worst-Covid-data-failures
    They're all bad but imo the tenth is the worst.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    Michigan presidential polling. Fieldwork date 24th October in both cases:
    Trafalgar gives Trump a 3% lead
    Gravis Marketing gives Biden a 13% lead

    Nate Silver then highlights ridiculous crossbreaks that completely undermine the Traflagar poll's credibility. Those crossbreaks then disappear from the Trafalgar site.

    Meanwhile the average polling lead for Michigan from all companies remains at 7.6%.

    The stench of the putrifying rat is overwhelming. Yet some here still deny that they can smell it.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    For some reason, the Nigerian tanker has had several RNLI lifeboats sent out to it.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,102
    edited October 2020
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    I was surprised to see Cannock Chase is one of the areas with the highest infection rates.

    That would explain why there is talk we’re about to be shoved in a higher tier.

    Which would be an embuggerance from my point of view given I live in Cannock Chase but work and therefore shop elsewhere.
    And sadly the regulations cover people living within a tier area even when they are travelling outside of it.
    Not for business

    My son in law travels to Airbus for work and outside Conwy CBC
    What you mean is, business is an exemption in the regulations, not that the regulations do not apply.
    Not sure I understand to be honest

    You can travel to work anywhere in Wales or indeed to England if your work is there and you cannot work from home
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    eristdoof said:

    nico679 said:

    HYUFD said:

    However the fact they give Biden 25% of the GOP vote shows they are not just set up solely to favour Trump
    The fact they give both camps ridiculous amounts of crossover support should mean that the poll is garbage and Trump isn’t going to win independents by 45 points . Please find me another poll out of the hundreds we’ve had that show anything like those figures ?
    But it's Trafalgar, and they got it right last time.
    Last time was 2018 and Trafalgar got it wrong by a margin of 8%.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275
    edited October 2020
    Alistair said:

    You need to pay attention to where they are campaigning they said...

    https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/1320431713021878272?s=19

    Although close to 80% of 2016 turnout has already happened in Texas its likely that figure is going to be surpassed easily and the Dems are likely to be leading at this point . This looks like an effort to squeeze out as many Dems for Election Day and help some downballot races . It does suggest that there’s increasing confidence in the swing states if Harris is going there . Luckily they’re not fans of Trafalgar polls ! Lol
  • geoffw said:

    Dismal report from Tom Jefferson & Carl Heneghan
    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/The-ten-worst-Covid-data-failures
    They're all bad but imo the tenth is the worst.

    Mysteriously selective.

    https://twitter.com/arthistorynews/status/1320303370545102849?s=20
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    52k cases in France. Wtf is happening over there.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381
    HYUFD said:

    However the fact they give Biden 25% of the GOP vote shows they are not just set up solely to favour Trump
    He's playing you.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    MrEd said:

    Alistair said:

    You need to pay attention to where they are campaigning they said...

    https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/1320431713021878272?s=19

    And Trump going to New Hampshire and Nevada, while piling money into Minnesota.

    If The Democrats really thought Texas was in play, they would send Joe. Kamala is probably more of an asset for the state elections
    Same reason she was drafted into Ohio. It's staying red, but there's potentially tight down-ballot races.
  • MaxPB said:

    52k cases in France. Wtf is happening over there.

    It is seriously worrying right across Europe just now
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    MaxPB said:

    52k cases in France. Wtf is happening over there.

    It is seriously worrying right across Europe just now
    Tbf, this is us in two weeks unless the government gets a grip on self isolation and testing failures.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    IanB2 said:

    For some reason, the Nigerian tanker has had several RNLI lifeboats sent out to it.

    BBC says the military are being called in
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    nico679 said:

    Alistair said:

    You need to pay attention to where they are campaigning they said...

    https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/1320431713021878272?s=19

    Although close to 80% of 2016 turnout has already happened in Texas its likely that figure is going to be surpassed easily and the Dems are likely to be leading at this point . This looks like an effort to squeeze out as many Dems for Election Day and help some downballot races . It does suggest that there’s increasing confidence in the swing states if Harris is going there . Luckily they’re not fans of Trafalgar polls ! Lol
    Given that the state houses elected this year will map the state and federal legislative districts for the next decade, I guess the Biden-Harris campaign must think getting control of one or both of Texas’s legislative houses is worth a punt, even if getting the TX senate seat or EVs is probably a stretch.
  • MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    52k cases in France. Wtf is happening over there.

    It is seriously worrying right across Europe just now
    Tbf, this is us in two weeks unless the government gets a grip on self isolation and testing failures.
    An honest question

    Is anyone testing in Europe any better than the UK or Germany
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    MrEd said:

    Alistair said:

    You need to pay attention to where they are campaigning they said...

    https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/1320431713021878272?s=19

    And Trump going to New Hampshire and Nevada, while piling money into Minnesota.

    If The Democrats really thought Texas was in play, they would send Joe. Kamala is probably more of an asset for the state elections
    Same reason she was drafted into Ohio. It's staying red, but there's potentially tight down-ballot races.
    Agreed. The Democrats are looking to take the lower state house in Texas. Personally, I don’t think they will do it because, due to lack of ticket splitting, the Republicans on the lower tickets will benefit from pull up, unlike 2018. Noticeable that the last Senate poll had Cornyn up by 9 in TX. That doesn’t really point to the Dems turning TX blue.

    Also, if anyone knows what is happening at Texas State University in terms of students going back (!), I’d be interested. If there have not been lines of students turning out to vote, the fact the 2020 votes have already surpassed 16 could be positive for Trump
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    52k cases in France. Wtf is happening over there.

    It is seriously worrying right across Europe just now
    Tbf, this is us in two weeks unless the government gets a grip on self isolation and testing failures.
    This is us in two weeks then.

    I really can’t see how schools will be able to stay open under such circumstances. It’s already running rampant through them and if vulnerable teachers have to shield then the whole system will implode again.

    Plus we’re already all completely worn out and the children are exploding under the restrictions even though so far we’ve been pretty lucky with the weather.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    It's looking like North Carolina is going to flip at both Presidential and Senate level, which will mean the demise of Thomas Tillis.

    https://drive.google.com/file/d/120niJzXNDssyJDgqzt-EgHEqarQgnY_8/view

  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,706
    Alistair said:
    Trump might need to nuke it.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    And re the below, Texas looks increasingly good for the Dems.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    nico679 said:

    Alistair said:

    You need to pay attention to where they are campaigning they said...

    https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/1320431713021878272?s=19

    Although close to 80% of 2016 turnout has already happened in Texas its likely that figure is going to be surpassed easily and the Dems are likely to be leading at this point . This looks like an effort to squeeze out as many Dems for Election Day and help some downballot races . It does suggest that there’s increasing confidence in the swing states if Harris is going there . Luckily they’re not fans of Trafalgar polls ! Lol
    Yep
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    MrEd said:

    FYI, on the 2016 reluctant Trumpstere now turning into enthusiastic ones. Highlights a few themes @TimT talked about

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/10/25/2016s_reluctant_trumpers_are_2020s_avid_trumpers.html

    What’s your forecast for the election?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,766
    What time is tomorrow's u-turn?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216


    These days, any suggestion of poor parenting in relation to anything, is the quickest way to have the twitterverse pile on you.

    And woe betide anyone who comments on the number of fat poor people.....(I know nutrition quality is the issue, but some of these parents (and some of their kids) could do with fewer calories for a bit.....)

  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688

    Michigan presidential polling. Fieldwork date 24th October in both cases:
    Trafalgar gives Trump a 3% lead
    Gravis Marketing gives Biden a 13% lead

    Nate Silver then highlights ridiculous crossbreaks that completely undermine the Traflagar poll's credibility. Those crossbreaks then disappear from the Trafalgar site.

    Meanwhile the average polling lead for Michigan from all companies remains at 7.6%.

    The stench of the putrifying rat is overwhelming. Yet some here still deny that they can smell it.
    I wonder if Fox News and especially Sean Hannity will go down the chute with this muppet-show Trafalgar polling.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,102
    edited October 2020

    What time is tomorrow's u-turn?

    Which Boris or Drakeford
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    52k cases in France. Wtf is happening over there.

    It is seriously worrying right across Europe just now
    Tbf, this is us in two weeks unless the government gets a grip on self isolation and testing failures.
    An honest question

    Is anyone testing in Europe any better than the UK or Germany
    Not particularly, I'd say that France, Spain, Netherlands and Belgium testing is worse than our system, Germany and Italy probably marginally better.

    Ultimately every country suffers from the same issue of people not isolating after testing positive. Nations who have effectively defeated the virus have very good isolation measures (Australia, NZ) or people who are responsible and isolate properly without needing special measures (SK, Japan).
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    For some reason, the Nigerian tanker has had several RNLI lifeboats sent out to it.

    BBC says the military are being called in
    With a tanker full of oil on the doorstep of some of our most sensitive and heavily populated beach areas, they would be raving mad not to.

    The consequences of somebody opening the taps (metaphorically speaking) on that thing do not bear thinking about. It would make the Braer or even the Torrey Canyon look like a picnic.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    Rumour is that the special forces are being called in to deal with the tanker. Unconfirmed.

    Meanwhile the Navy bomb disposal squad has been seen boarding the ferry to the island. By coincidence or otherwise.
  • TimT said:

    FPT @ ea Shanty

    Drove to VA via WV yesterday via rural MD panhandle. Remarkably few political signs or posters given how much energy there clearly is in this election. I am not sure whether that signifies anything, or just that electronic media have taken over from hard copy.

    I am picking up the same vibe as you - both sides see this as an end-of-the-world type election should the other side win. Trump's core is obdurate and energized. The Dems are using Trump very effectively to get their own base out and to bring in new voters (which I do not sense Trump is - he is rather retaining existing voters more effectively than I would have imagined).

    As for GA, the only person I know there other than TimB is an avid Trump man. But I have got to believe that the demographic directions, historical under-voting in some demos, and the sheer numbers voting this time must be a very good sign for Biden and Dems the whole length of the ticket.

    If you mean by Crackers natural conservatives who could not support Trump, I think most would want the GOP not just to lose the White House but to be given an thorough nut kicking in both Houses so that the party can be rid of the novel SARS-Trump-16 virus.

    Sorry TimT, got you mixed up with TimB. Will try to keep in mind that he is before you alphabetically, just like GA precedes MD.

    Hope the weather was good for your drive, some very lovely country in those parts. Back in my misspent youth used to travel from WV to DC via the Maryland panhandle.

    One of my stops was a candy store along the road in (IIRC) Grantsville MD which sold all kinds of candy they made (I think) on site or close by. NOT fancy but good stuff; my personal favorite was their white chocolate which the sold in chunks.

    Re: signage in MD & WVA really not much incentive this year EXCEPT for (maybe) local races, as everybody knows which way these states are going at top end of ballot.

    By "Crackers" I simply mean Georgians of any description; like to think of TimB as an Anglo-Cracker!
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    edited October 2020
    North Carolina turnout in early 2020 votes is now 65% of total 2016 votes. 4.7m votes were cast in 2016, 3.1m have already been cast in 2020.

    Of these votes, 40.5% are from registered Democrats, and 30% from registered Republicans, an absolute difference of 326,000.

    The Republicans have an enormous amount of catching up to do and are running out of time to do it.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    ydoethur said:

    C4 news, latest Tory mp excuse: it's Labour's fault for timing this row which to make us look bad.

    If that were true, it would be very wrong of Labour. How dare they engage in halfway competent opposition to a government policy cockup?

    I agree! It's the government's job to make the government look bad - and frankly, Labour are amateurs at it compared to the government - leave it to the professionals!
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    I hope I am wrong, but you get the impression that the winter could be brutal.
  • MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    52k cases in France. Wtf is happening over there.

    It is seriously worrying right across Europe just now
    Tbf, this is us in two weeks unless the government gets a grip on self isolation and testing failures.
    An honest question

    Is anyone testing in Europe any better than the UK or Germany
    Not particularly, I'd say that France, Spain, Netherlands and Belgium testing is worse than our system, Germany and Italy probably marginally better.

    Ultimately every country suffers from the same issue of people not isolating after testing positive. Nations who have effectively defeated the virus have very good isolation measures (Australia, NZ) or people who are responsible and isolate properly without needing special measures (SK, Japan).
    We seem to delight in attacking our own system which I understand is near a 400,000 a day capacity and is not far off Germany.

    And of course the countries who have best dealt with this are all in the Southern Hemisphere and in New Zealand case 1500 miles from nearest land in Australia and comprises two islands with wide open spaces
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,713
    IanB2 said:

    Rumour is that the special forces are being called in to deal with the tanker. Unconfirmed.

    Meanwhile the Navy bomb disposal squad has been seen boarding the ferry to the island. By coincidence or otherwise.

    Surely the Bomb squad don't usually deploy via Wightlink?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    Rumour is that the special forces are being called in to deal with the tanker. Unconfirmed.

    Meanwhile the Navy bomb disposal squad has been seen boarding the ferry to the island. By coincidence or otherwise.

    Surely the Bomb squad don't usually deploy via Wightlink?
    It would seem so. A helicopter has just headed out to sea; looks like things are building to a climax.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    52k cases in France. Wtf is happening over there.

    It is seriously worrying right across Europe just now
    Tbf, this is us in two weeks unless the government gets a grip on self isolation and testing failures.
    An honest question

    Is anyone testing in Europe any better than the UK or Germany
    Not particularly, I'd say that France, Spain, Netherlands and Belgium testing is worse than our system, Germany and Italy probably marginally better.

    Ultimately every country suffers from the same issue of people not isolating after testing positive. Nations who have effectively defeated the virus have very good isolation measures (Australia, NZ) or people who are responsible and isolate properly without needing special measures (SK, Japan).
    We seem to delight in attacking our own system which I understand is near a 400,000 a day capacity and is not far off Germany.

    And of course the countries who have best dealt with this are all in the Southern Hemisphere and in New Zealand case 1500 miles from nearest land in Australia and comprises two islands with wide open spaces
    The British response to Corona has much to be proud of, with only the government letting the side down.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    North Carolina turnout in early 2020 votes is now 65% of total 2016 votes. 4.7m votes were cast in 2016, 3.1m have already been cast in 2020.

    Of these votes, 40.5% are from registered Democrats, and 30% from registered Republicans, an absolute difference of 326,000.

    The Republicans have an enormous amount of catching up to do and are running out of time to do it.

    One thing to be careful of in NC is older voters registered Democrats but who vote Republicans.

    In rural areas, which are 19pc of votes cast so far (or what I checked last earlier), the Democrats have a big lead by party registration. Given these tend to be Trump areas, and that the EV has skewed heavily to older voters, there is a good chance many of these are registered as Democrats but have voted for Trump.

    Regardless, the Republicans have been cutting the democrat lead in party registration votes by c 2pc per day and it is now at 11pc. Souls to the polls will be less effective this year given CV.

    I’m increasingly of the view the Republicans will hold NC both at the Senate and Presidential level
  • BBC News - Covid: Spain imposes national night-time curfew to curb infections

    He said he would ask parliament to extend the new rules, initially in force for 15 days, to six months.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-54682222

    It is unclear from the report, is the PM really asking for a curfew for 6 months? Of it is the power to impose it at anytime over the next 6 months?
  • MrEd said:

    MrEd said:

    Alistair said:

    You need to pay attention to where they are campaigning they said...

    https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/1320431713021878272?s=19

    And Trump going to New Hampshire and Nevada, while piling money into Minnesota.

    If The Democrats really thought Texas was in play, they would send Joe. Kamala is probably more of an asset for the state elections
    Same reason she was drafted into Ohio. It's staying red, but there's potentially tight down-ballot races.
    Agreed. The Democrats are looking to take the lower state house in Texas. Personally, I don’t think they will do it because, due to lack of ticket splitting, the Republicans on the lower tickets will benefit from pull up, unlike 2018. Noticeable that the last Senate poll had Cornyn up by 9 in TX. That doesn’t really point to the Dems turning TX blue.

    Also, if anyone knows what is happening at Texas State University in terms of students going back (!), I’d be interested. If there have not been lines of students turning out to vote, the fact the 2020 votes have already surpassed 16 could be positive for Trump
    University of Texas - best I can tell they do have (at least some) students on campus.

    You raise good point re: student vote.

    And while it is true that on-campus population is either missing OR reduced, the actually students are still around. AND while a bit harder to mobilize, methinks that most (actually a strong majority) will indeed vote.

    Actually think is is a bigger issue for local Democratic candidates for Congress & legislature in swing districts, where the student vote is esp. important for Dems.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,102
    edited October 2020
    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    For some reason, the Nigerian tanker has had several RNLI lifeboats sent out to it.

    BBC says the military are being called in
    With a tanker full of oil on the doorstep of some of our most sensitive and heavily populated beach areas, they would be raving mad not to.

    The consequences of somebody opening the taps (metaphorically speaking) on that thing do not bear thinking about. It would make the Braer or even the Torrey Canyon look like a picnic.
    I remember the 'Torrey Canyon' well as it was a time (1967) when we were actually on holiday in the South West and the smell of heavy oil and the sight of damaged beaches was something not to be forgotten
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    ydoethur said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    52k cases in France. Wtf is happening over there.

    It is seriously worrying right across Europe just now
    Tbf, this is us in two weeks unless the government gets a grip on self isolation and testing failures.
    This is us in two weeks then.

    I really can’t see how schools will be able to stay open under such circumstances. It’s already running rampant through them and if vulnerable teachers have to shield then the whole system will implode again.

    Plus we’re already all completely worn out and the children are exploding under the restrictions even though so far we’ve been pretty lucky with the weather.
    My son’s primary is fine, and all the children and teachers seem delighted to be back.

    You seem desperate for the schools to close.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    MrEd said:

    North Carolina turnout in early 2020 votes is now 65% of total 2016 votes. 4.7m votes were cast in 2016, 3.1m have already been cast in 2020.

    Of these votes, 40.5% are from registered Democrats, and 30% from registered Republicans, an absolute difference of 326,000.

    The Republicans have an enormous amount of catching up to do and are running out of time to do it.


    I’m increasingly of the view the Republicans will hold NC both at the Senate and Presidential level
    I'm increasingly convinced they won't, based on polling. This is polling based on not only how people might intend to vote but, of course, how many of them have already voted - hence virtually an exit poll. Bet accordingly.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    52k cases in France. Wtf is happening over there.

    It is seriously worrying right across Europe just now
    Tbf, this is us in two weeks unless the government gets a grip on self isolation and testing failures.
    An honest question

    Is anyone testing in Europe any better than the UK or Germany
    Not particularly, I'd say that France, Spain, Netherlands and Belgium testing is worse than our system, Germany and Italy probably marginally better.

    Ultimately every country suffers from the same issue of people not isolating after testing positive. Nations who have effectively defeated the virus have very good isolation measures (Australia, NZ) or people who are responsible and isolate properly without needing special measures (SK, Japan).
    We seem to delight in attacking our own system which I understand is near a 400,000 a day capacity and is not far off Germany.

    And of course the countries who have best dealt with this are all in the Southern Hemisphere and in New Zealand case 1500 miles from nearest land in Australia and comprises two islands with wide open spaces
    The testing numbers aren't as important as effectiveness. We could be testing fewer than half the number of people if we had faster turnaround times and proper contact tracing with local authorities in charge door knocking taking swabs and getting tests processed locally within 24h if taking the swab and then isolating people properly.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,591
    George Galloway interview with Triggernometry currently streaming.

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=bLLgbD7IKp8
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,713
    Odd lineup vs Arsenal for Leicester. No starting striker, but several on the bench.



This discussion has been closed.