Hunger for change. The messed-up debate about free school meals – politicalbetting.com
Comments
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There isn't much evidence for seasonality of this virus tbh.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And it is spring going into summer thereLadyG said:
That is after an intense, prolonged and controversial lockdown (still ongoing in Melbourne)Foxy said:Victoria seems to have cracked it.
https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1320486138885394434?s=19
We all know you can crush R down below 1 if you cease all human interaction. That’s accepted. The question then becomes: is this victory worth the economic pain? Especially if, after lockdown ends, the virus just bounces back anyhow
Admittedly we haven't been through a year yet, but it managed to rage in Summer in Arizona.0 -
It would reset politics across the globe and for the betterAlistair said:
If the 2020 Congressional district polling is in any way indicitive of where things are going it will be a roflstomp.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Landslide incomingrottenborough said:
Wow. That is just wow. There is a week to go.Benpointer said:Early voting in Texas has now reached 80% of total 2016 turnout.
https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html
I just can't find a source for 2016 congressional polls to cross check.1 -
Frank Bough dead0
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You are assuming here there is a ridge and the choice isnt merely which valley. The ridge also may be just be another valley only in this one we have both destroyed the economy and the pandemic is raging.YBarddCwsc said:The Covid Modelling Problem is like a ball rolling down a knife-edge ridge, between two deep, deep valleys.
The ball might roll down the the ridge the whole way, but way more likely, it will end up in the valley on on one side of the ridge, or the other. Small differences in starting position, velocity and angle make a huge difference as to which valley you drop into.
In one of the valleys, you have suppressed the virus, but destroyed your economy. In the other valley, you have lost complete control of the virus & the pandemic is raging.
There is only a tiny bit of middle ground on the ridge, so it looks impossible to get the ball down the ridge without it dropping in the valley.
Can we do it?
What we have to do is use human behaviour to get the ball safely down the ridge. When the epidemic gets out of control, humans must do better social distancing, so the ball can stay on track & not drop into one valley.
When the epidemic starts to fade, humans must loosen up to keep the ball on the ridge & not drop into the other valley.
It is is almost impossible to model this because it needs maths+psychology+economics. There are just huge feedback loops, as the system changes, so does peoples' behaviour.0 -
Maybe. Just maybe set the tone for more civil discourse generally.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It would reset politics across the globe and for the betterAlistair said:
If the 2020 Congressional district polling is in any way indicitive of where things are going it will be a roflstomp.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Landslide incomingrottenborough said:
Wow. That is just wow. There is a week to go.Benpointer said:Early voting in Texas has now reached 80% of total 2016 turnout.
https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html
I just can't find a source for 2016 congressional polls to cross check.
One can hope.0 -
The one thing about the weather is it is easier to be outside in spring and summerdixiedean said:
There isn't much evidence for seasonality of this virus tbh.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And it is spring going into summer thereLadyG said:
That is after an intense, prolonged and controversial lockdown (still ongoing in Melbourne)Foxy said:Victoria seems to have cracked it.
https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1320486138885394434?s=19
We all know you can crush R down below 1 if you cease all human interaction. That’s accepted. The question then becomes: is this victory worth the economic pain? Especially if, after lockdown ends, the virus just bounces back anyhow
Admittedly we haven't been through a year yet, but it managed to rage in Summer in Arizona.0 -
To be honest I expect they do not careIanB2 said:The UK prime minister and the home secretary are accused of endangering the personal safety of lawyers through their abusive attacks on the profession and should apologise, more than 800 former judges and senior legal figures have said in a letter sent to the Guardian.
Boris Johnson and Priti Patel are additionally accused in the letter of displaying “hostility” towards lawyers, undermining the rule of law and effectively risking the lives of those working in the justice system.
The signatories include three former justices of the UK supreme court, five retired appeal court judges, three former high court judges, the lawyer heads of four Oxford University colleges, more than 80 QCs, 69 law professors from leading English universities, the directors of Liberty and Justice, as well as hundreds of law firm partners, barristers and solicitors.
Once upon a time, they’d all have been Tories.0 -
JK Rowling tweet incoming.....
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8877425/Tampax-slammed-tweet-celebrating-diversity-people-bleed-amid-calls-boycott.html0 -
Of course, Biden can still win the Presidency, even losing these three states, by picking up the more probable wins of PA, MI and WI.Alistair said:
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Summer in Arizona doesn’t exactly conjure up images of the population all eating and drinking outdoors in the square, though, does it? Extremely hot weather that drives people indoors in search of air conditioning is just as dangerous as cold and rain.dixiedean said:
There isn't much evidence for seasonality of this virus tbh.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And it is spring going into summer thereLadyG said:
That is after an intense, prolonged and controversial lockdown (still ongoing in Melbourne)Foxy said:Victoria seems to have cracked it.
https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1320486138885394434?s=19
We all know you can crush R down below 1 if you cease all human interaction. That’s accepted. The question then becomes: is this victory worth the economic pain? Especially if, after lockdown ends, the virus just bounces back anyhow
Admittedly we haven't been through a year yet, but it managed to rage in Summer in Arizona.
It would be ironic if Europe’s better weathering of the summer than the US came down to lack of air conditioning.1 -
She'll have spoiled her ballot:SandyRentool said:
I reckon Melania has voted Biden.rottenborough said:
It's over if Putin has thrown in the towel.OllyT said:
Another of Mr Ed's fantasy "game changers" IIRCSeaShantyIrish2 said:
Strange. Weren't we told on PB that this scandal was gonna blow the lid off the 2020 presidential race?Scott_xP said:
Indeed is IS a scandal, what Trumpskyites have been doing here. Sadly for them, turns out to be a boomerang.
Trump only has his family and the lawyer with his hand down his trousers left.
"BEING HELD BY MANIAC. PLEASE SEND HELP. SUITE 1A, MAR-A-LAGO."8 -
I do hope the public inquiry covers this area, because personally I think it has been utterly woeful and an entire political class has been driven by a prediction engine that basically doesn't predict.FrancisUrquhart said:
Well this was part of the criticism. His model was made using outdated set of tools, which makes it clear he hasn't updated it and adapted to both flaws of it when it previously hit the real world (i.e. the swing flu), but neither has he kept up with the state of the art mathematical modelling techniques.rottenborough said:
What ever was the best language to build the 'sim' virus model (which incidentally was written for an influenza type virus rather than a SARs-type) the key issue, imho, is the it has failed repeatedly to be anywhere near the turned out reality.FrancisUrquhart said:
Neither a Deep Neural Net or a genetic algorithm is really the best approach. Something like Gaussian Processes based model is (and no that doesn't mean just fit a gaussian curve though some data).TimT said:
By machine learning, are you talking about neural networks, or genetic algorithms? The former require tons of historical data, so are not so useful if you're dealing with inherently unknowable systems or situations where you either have no data or you only have low confidence in what you have. I think, for example, they will axiomatically fail to predict black swans or emergent properties that are not in the historical data used to train them.MaxPB said:
I'm not so sure, I've implemented ML in a few areas of my work and it's been very helpful, but I agree that it isn't a silver bullet for every scenario. It's definitely well ahead of Blockchain in real world use, I mean in gaming DLSS is about to make native resolution obsolete and that's built on ML. Blockchain is vaporware, ML definitely isn't.Pagan2 said:
Don't mistake me I am not saying machine learning doesnt have a place. Sadly like much in the it world it almost feels like its becoming the silver bullet.....whatever the problem machine learning is the answer or block chainMaxPB said:
I think the point being made is that him using C shows how outdated his approach is.Pagan2 said:
Sigh does no one read what you write here anymore. I didn't argue c was the correct tool I merely asserted it wasn't an obsolete language. I said the right tool for the right job. I suspect in the case of covid however the model itself is the flaw rather than the language it is written in.MaxPB said:
Half of the computing world isn't trying to predict a viral replication model within a modelled real world scenario. It is what ML is made to do, using Python which has a whole host of ML libraries and can use GPU acceleration would be the correct way of doing it. I couldn't imagine anyone in my industry creating a predictive model in C and banking is at the forefront of ML, C is just old fashioned and unsuitable for using Tensorflow or PyTorch either of which are extensively used for deep learning which is what a problem like this needs.Pagan2 said:
Me too.Alistair said:
Nah, the polls appear g on their website are just made up. The 3 that appeared today and caused a stir are genuine-but-crap. NoticeSeaShantyIrish2 said:
Likely they've got some techie who takes txt & robo push-button responses to push-polling questions (where the REAL point is message NOT the response) then re-configures results based on demographics obtained from source OTHER than the actual texts & calls.Alistair said:Trafalgar have just slapped a NC poll up on their site.
And you are never going to believe it, it has exactly the same demographics as the one from September.
Outstanding consistency
Then Cahaly pumps it out as another Trafalgar Group "poll".
This is all supposition - but it DOES fit the known facts (including TG's own vague "explanation" re: methodology) AND is certainly right in the Lee Atwater - Karl Rove (remember him?) wheelhouse.
John Carmack looked at the code and said it looked fine.Pagan2 said:
C is most definitely not an obsolete language it is still widely used for good reasons. That is however not to say its necessarily the best to use for those models. I can't comment on that because I haven't seen the models but C is I believe still one of the top ten languages and is still the best to choose often for embedded purposes. Like everything it is the right tool for the right purpose.DecrepiterJohnL said:
The obsolete programming language was C, used for linux and android and therefore probably the most important and most commonly deployed language. (Obscure namedrop: I was once stuck in a lift with that there Dennis Ritchie.) I've not been following modelgate but gather some Microsofties had a go at porting Ferguson's code to C++ for no readily apparent reason except that is what programmers like to do: reimplement the wheel in a new language.FrancisUrquhart said:
Lots of questions over the academic response over this, especially early on. Many so called experts not leveraging standard modern tools. Much that everybody laughed at the use of Excel for of the testing data, we saw with the likes of Ferguson model is was a similar shit show of coding / obselete programming language and paradigms.Jonathan said:
The NHS, academic and pharmaceutical contribution is world class.MaxPB said:
Not really, it's been very disorganised and people have been proved to be irresponsible and not isolating after testing positive and the state has been left wanting in many areas. Any thoughts of exceptionalism should have been washed away by the virus response both from the state and the people.Jonathan said:
The British response to Corona has much to be proud of, with only the government letting the side down.Big_G_NorthWales said:
We seem to delight in attacking our own system which I understand is near a 400,000 a day capacity and is not far off Germany.MaxPB said:
Not particularly, I'd say that France, Spain, Netherlands and Belgium testing is worse than our system, Germany and Italy probably marginally better.Big_G_NorthWales said:
An honest questionMaxPB said:
Tbf, this is us in two weeks unless the government gets a grip on self isolation and testing failures.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is seriously worrying right across Europe just nowMaxPB said:52k cases in France. Wtf is happening over there.
Is anyone testing in Europe any better than the UK or Germany
Ultimately every country suffers from the same issue of people not isolating after testing positive. Nations who have effectively defeated the virus have very good isolation measures (Australia, NZ) or people who are responsible and isolate properly without needing special measures (SK, Japan).
And of course the countries who have best dealt with this are all in the Southern Hemisphere and in New Zealand case 1500 miles from nearest land in Australia and comprises two islands with wide open spaces
We are still seeing it now with the model for how effective a circuit breaker might be providing nonsensical results.
When all this is over, we might reflect that Dominic Cummings and pb's own @SeanT were right about one thing. Britain does need to invest more in research.
I would have more concern if the models were done in something live javascript than c.
That is more than good enough for me.
The point I was making was merely that C is an old language but that doesn't make it obsolete. I wasn't arguing it was the right choice for this however I said I didn't know as hadn't seen the model.
Half the computer world still runs on C, apache web servers, linux, most embedded stuff etc.
Further as to machine learning personally that is over hyped and unproven. We have a huge amount of examples of machine learning where what the machine learnt isn't what people thought they had taught it. Facial recognition, predictive crime etc being the two most egregious but lots of others out there.
ML is great for these kinds of problems because people are predictably unpredictable. Predicting a person's behaviour is impossible, predicting population behaviour isn't and it's one of the major uses of it.
Agree that facial recognition and crime models are a pile of dogshit, but that doesn't invalidate the approach to other more suitable problems. Viral replication is probably one of the most suitable problems for ML as it's a multivariate analysis and we have a huge amount of data available now. Another good area is medical outcome modelling, a friend of mine works for Babylon and they've been doing some incredible work on it.
For genetic algorithms, I am not sure how evolved solutions in silico will necessarily be better than those evolved through acquisition of genuine expertise.
I am not an expert in this area, and so would welcome correction and enlightenment if I am wrong.
PS These comments relate to machine learning in complex adaptive systems - I realize that it can be very effective in better defined, deterministic systems
And as far as I am aware no changes have been made to the model based on what has actually happened in the real world (happy to be corrected on this).0 -
It is very much neededdixiedean said:
Maybe. Just maybe set the tone for more civil discourse generally.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It would reset politics across the globe and for the betterAlistair said:
If the 2020 Congressional district polling is in any way indicitive of where things are going it will be a roflstomp.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Landslide incomingrottenborough said:
Wow. That is just wow. There is a week to go.Benpointer said:Early voting in Texas has now reached 80% of total 2016 turnout.
https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html
I just can't find a source for 2016 congressional polls to cross check.
One can hope.0 -
True. And I suppose the opposite is true in Arizona. It's easier to do almost anything there outside in Winter.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The one thing about the weather is it is easier to be outside in spring and summerdixiedean said:
There isn't much evidence for seasonality of this virus tbh.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And it is spring going into summer thereLadyG said:
That is after an intense, prolonged and controversial lockdown (still ongoing in Melbourne)Foxy said:Victoria seems to have cracked it.
https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1320486138885394434?s=19
We all know you can crush R down below 1 if you cease all human interaction. That’s accepted. The question then becomes: is this victory worth the economic pain? Especially if, after lockdown ends, the virus just bounces back anyhow
Admittedly we haven't been through a year yet, but it managed to rage in Summer in Arizona.
Edit. I see @IanB2 has also spotted my failure to think the point through.
Although Taiwan is an AC heavy, hot, sweaty, crowded, indoor in Summer environment, so who knows?0 -
Unfortunately, I doubt those conducting such an inquiry will have the expert knowledge to really understand what the likes of myself and MaxPB are talking about. I can foresee instead it all just becoming political and bogged down in who said what when, which email didn't get answered, what Big Dom shouted as the tea lady etc etc etc.rottenborough said:
I do hope the public inquiry covers this area, because personally I think it has been utterly woeful and an entire political class has been driven by a prediction engine that basically doesn't predict.FrancisUrquhart said:
Well this was part of the criticism. His model was made using outdated set of tools, which makes it clear he hasn't updated it and adapted to both flaws of it when it previously hit the real world (i.e. the swing flu), but neither has he kept up with the state of the art mathematical modelling techniques.rottenborough said:
What ever was the best language to build the 'sim' virus model (which incidentally was written for an influenza type virus rather than a SARs-type) the key issue, imho, is the it has failed repeatedly to be anywhere near the turned out reality.FrancisUrquhart said:
Neither a Deep Neural Net or a genetic algorithm is really the best approach. Something like Gaussian Processes based model is (and no that doesn't mean just fit a gaussian curve though some data).TimT said:
By machine learning, are you talking about neural networks, or genetic algorithms? The former require tons of historical data, so are not so useful if you're dealing with inherently unknowable systems or situations where you either have no data or you only have low confidence in what you have. I think, for example, they will axiomatically fail to predict black swans or emergent properties that are not in the historical data used to train them.MaxPB said:
I'm not so sure, I've implemented ML in a few areas of my work and it's been very helpful, but I agree that it isn't a silver bullet for every scenario. It's definitely well ahead of Blockchain in real world use, I mean in gaming DLSS is about to make native resolution obsolete and that's built on ML. Blockchain is vaporware, ML definitely isn't.Pagan2 said:
Don't mistake me I am not saying machine learning doesnt have a place. Sadly like much in the it world it almost feels like its becoming the silver bullet.....whatever the problem machine learning is the answer or block chainMaxPB said:
I think the point being made is that him using C shows how outdated his approach is.Pagan2 said:
Sigh does no one read what you write here anymore. I didn't argue c was the correct tool I merely asserted it wasn't an obsolete language. I said the right tool for the right job. I suspect in the case of covid however the model itself is the flaw rather than the language it is written in.MaxPB said:
Half of the computing world isn't trying to predict a viral replication model within a modelled real world scenario. It is what ML is made to do, using Python which has a whole host of ML libraries and can use GPU acceleration would be the correct way of doing it. I couldn't imagine anyone in my industry creating a predictive model in C and banking is at the forefront of ML, C is just old fashioned and unsuitable for using Tensorflow or PyTorch either of which are extensively used for deep learning which is what a problem like this needs.Pagan2 said:
Me too.Alistair said:
Nah, the polls appear g on their website are just made up. The 3 that appeared today and caused a stir are genuine-but-crap. NoticeSeaShantyIrish2 said:
Likely they've got some techie who takes txt & robo push-button responses to push-polling questions (where the REAL point is message NOT the response) then re-configures results based on demographics obtained from source OTHER than the actual texts & calls.Alistair said:Trafalgar have just slapped a NC poll up on their site.
And you are never going to believe it, it has exactly the same demographics as the one from September.
Outstanding consistency
Then Cahaly pumps it out as another Trafalgar Group "poll".
This is all supposition - but it DOES fit the known facts (including TG's own vague "explanation" re: methodology) AND is certainly right in the Lee Atwater - Karl Rove (remember him?) wheelhouse.
John Carmack looked at the code and said it looked fine.Pagan2 said:
C is most definitely not an obsolete language it is still widely used for good reasons. That is however not to say its necessarily the best to use for those models. I can't comment on that because I haven't seen the models but C is I believe still one of the top ten languages and is still the best to choose often for embedded purposes. Like everything it is the right tool for the right purpose.DecrepiterJohnL said:
The obsolete programming language was C, used for linux and android and therefore probably the most important and most commonly deployed language. (Obscure namedrop: I was once stuck in a lift with that there Dennis Ritchie.) I've not been following modelgate but gather some Microsofties had a go at porting Ferguson's code to C++ for no readily apparent reason except that is what programmers like to do: reimplement the wheel in a new language.FrancisUrquhart said:
Lots of questions over the academic response over this, especially early on. Many so called experts not leveraging standard modern tools. Much that everybody laughed at the use of Excel for of the testing data, we saw with the likes of Ferguson model is was a similar shit show of coding / obselete programming language and paradigms.Jonathan said:
The NHS, academic and pharmaceutical contribution is world class.MaxPB said:
Not really, it's been very disorganised and people have been proved to be irresponsible and not isolating after testing positive and the state has been left wanting in many areas. Any thoughts of exceptionalism should have been washed away by the virus response both from the state and the people.Jonathan said:
The British response to Corona has much to be proud of, with only the government letting the side down.Big_G_NorthWales said:
We seem to delight in attacking our own system which I understand is near a 400,000 a day capacity and is not far off Germany.MaxPB said:
Not particularly, I'd say that France, Spain, Netherlands and Belgium testing is worse than our system, Germany and Italy probably marginally better.Big_G_NorthWales said:
An honest questionMaxPB said:
Tbf, this is us in two weeks unless the government gets a grip on self isolation and testing failures.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is seriously worrying right across Europe just nowMaxPB said:52k cases in France. Wtf is happening over there.
Is anyone testing in Europe any better than the UK or Germany
Ultimately every country suffers from the same issue of people not isolating after testing positive. Nations who have effectively defeated the virus have very good isolation measures (Australia, NZ) or people who are responsible and isolate properly without needing special measures (SK, Japan).
And of course the countries who have best dealt with this are all in the Southern Hemisphere and in New Zealand case 1500 miles from nearest land in Australia and comprises two islands with wide open spaces
We are still seeing it now with the model for how effective a circuit breaker might be providing nonsensical results.
When all this is over, we might reflect that Dominic Cummings and pb's own @SeanT were right about one thing. Britain does need to invest more in research.
I would have more concern if the models were done in something live javascript than c.
That is more than good enough for me.
The point I was making was merely that C is an old language but that doesn't make it obsolete. I wasn't arguing it was the right choice for this however I said I didn't know as hadn't seen the model.
Half the computer world still runs on C, apache web servers, linux, most embedded stuff etc.
Further as to machine learning personally that is over hyped and unproven. We have a huge amount of examples of machine learning where what the machine learnt isn't what people thought they had taught it. Facial recognition, predictive crime etc being the two most egregious but lots of others out there.
ML is great for these kinds of problems because people are predictably unpredictable. Predicting a person's behaviour is impossible, predicting population behaviour isn't and it's one of the major uses of it.
Agree that facial recognition and crime models are a pile of dogshit, but that doesn't invalidate the approach to other more suitable problems. Viral replication is probably one of the most suitable problems for ML as it's a multivariate analysis and we have a huge amount of data available now. Another good area is medical outcome modelling, a friend of mine works for Babylon and they've been doing some incredible work on it.
For genetic algorithms, I am not sure how evolved solutions in silico will necessarily be better than those evolved through acquisition of genuine expertise.
I am not an expert in this area, and so would welcome correction and enlightenment if I am wrong.
PS These comments relate to machine learning in complex adaptive systems - I realize that it can be very effective in better defined, deterministic systems
And as far as I am aware no changes have been made to the model based on what has actually happened in the real world (happy to be corrected on this).
During phone hacking, it became solely about the characters, the celebs, the politicians, not as only the Indy really looked at, some quite technical stuff, how many companies were exploited, how there was some proper serious hacking and was it justified, etc.0 -
I suspect that there is a course of action in which you get a moderately good outcome in terms of both deaths and the economy.Pagan2 said:
You are assuming here there is a ridge and the choice isnt merely which valley. The ridge also may be just be another valley only in this one we have both destroyed the economy and the pandemic is raging.YBarddCwsc said:The Covid Modelling Problem is like a ball rolling down a knife-edge ridge, between two deep, deep valleys.
The ball might roll down the the ridge the whole way, but way more likely, it will end up in the valley on on one side of the ridge, or the other. Small differences in starting position, velocity and angle make a huge difference as to which valley you drop into.
In one of the valleys, you have suppressed the virus, but destroyed your economy. In the other valley, you have lost complete control of the virus & the pandemic is raging.
There is only a tiny bit of middle ground on the ridge, so it looks impossible to get the ball down the ridge without it dropping in the valley.
Can we do it?
What we have to do is use human behaviour to get the ball safely down the ridge. When the epidemic gets out of control, humans must do better social distancing, so the ball can stay on track & not drop into one valley.
When the epidemic starts to fade, humans must loosen up to keep the ball on the ridge & not drop into the other valley.
It is is almost impossible to model this because it needs maths+psychology+economics. There are just huge feedback loops, as the system changes, so does peoples' behaviour.
E.g., Hasn't South Korea done pretty well so far in getting the ball down the ridge?
Maybe there really is a valley in which you have destroyed your economy AND have a raging pandemic? But it looks like it is way easier to get the ball into one of the other two valleys.0 -
RMG Research are showing the Montana House race as a dead heat. Seems odd when its been won by the GOP since 1997 and voted overwhelmingly for Trump in 2016.0
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We were in Melbourne in February 2009 and boy was it hotdixiedean said:
True. And I suppose the opposite is true in Arizona. It's easier to do almost anything there outside in Winter.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The one thing about the weather is it is easier to be outside in spring and summerdixiedean said:
There isn't much evidence for seasonality of this virus tbh.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And it is spring going into summer thereLadyG said:
That is after an intense, prolonged and controversial lockdown (still ongoing in Melbourne)Foxy said:Victoria seems to have cracked it.
https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1320486138885394434?s=19
We all know you can crush R down below 1 if you cease all human interaction. That’s accepted. The question then becomes: is this victory worth the economic pain? Especially if, after lockdown ends, the virus just bounces back anyhow
Admittedly we haven't been through a year yet, but it managed to rage in Summer in Arizona.0 -
South Korea did it by methods which wouldn't be tolerated here. Tools not available to us as they would never be politically palatable to people in europe. Hell we have resistance to the measures the government is proposing let alone the very invasive south korean methodsYBarddCwsc said:
I suspect that there is a course of action in which you get a moderately good outcome in terms of both deaths and the economy.Pagan2 said:
You are assuming here there is a ridge and the choice isnt merely which valley. The ridge also may be just be another valley only in this one we have both destroyed the economy and the pandemic is raging.YBarddCwsc said:The Covid Modelling Problem is like a ball rolling down a knife-edge ridge, between two deep, deep valleys.
The ball might roll down the the ridge the whole way, but way more likely, it will end up in the valley on on one side of the ridge, or the other. Small differences in starting position, velocity and angle make a huge difference as to which valley you drop into.
In one of the valleys, you have suppressed the virus, but destroyed your economy. In the other valley, you have lost complete control of the virus & the pandemic is raging.
There is only a tiny bit of middle ground on the ridge, so it looks impossible to get the ball down the ridge without it dropping in the valley.
Can we do it?
What we have to do is use human behaviour to get the ball safely down the ridge. When the epidemic gets out of control, humans must do better social distancing, so the ball can stay on track & not drop into one valley.
When the epidemic starts to fade, humans must loosen up to keep the ball on the ridge & not drop into the other valley.
It is is almost impossible to model this because it needs maths+psychology+economics. There are just huge feedback loops, as the system changes, so does peoples' behaviour.
E.g., Hasn't South Korea done pretty well so far in getting the ball down the ridge?
Maybe there really is a valley in which you have destroyed your economy AND have a raging pandemic? But it looks like it is way easier to get the ball into one of the other two valleys.
0 -
Those numbers look bad for Trump, considering the percentages voted already.Benpointer said:
Of course, Biden can still win the Presidency, even losing these three states, by picking up the more probable wins of PA, MI and WI.Alistair said:1 -
Why do I think of SeanT whenever I listen to this song
BOYS FROM THE COUNTY HELL
Shane Macgowan
On the first day of March it was raining
It was raining worse than anything that I have ever seen
I drank ten pints of beer and I cursed all the people there
And I wish that all this raining would stop falling down on me
And it's lend me ten pounds, I'll buy you a drink
And mother wake me early in the morning
At the time I was working for a landlord
And he was the meanest bastard that you have ever seen
And to lose a single penny would grieve him awful sore
And he was a miserable bollocks and a bitch's bastard's whore
And it's lend me ten pounds, I'll buy you a drink
And mother wake me early in the morning
I recall that we took care of him one Sunday
We got him out the back and we broke his fucking balls
And maybe that was dreaming and maybe that was real
But all I know is I left that place without a penny or fuck all
And it's lend me ten pounds, I'll buy you a drink
And mother wake me early in the morning
But now I've the most charming of verandas
I sit and watch the junkies, the drunks, the pimps, the whores
Five green bottles sitting on the floor
I wish to Christ, I wish to Christ that I had fifteen more
And it's lend me ten pounds, I'll buy you a drink
And mother wake me early in the morning
And it's lend me ten pounds, I'll buy you a drink
And mother wake me early in the morning
The boys and me are drunk and looking for you
We'll eat your frigging entrails and we won't give a damn
Me daddy was a Blue Shirt and my mother a madam
My brother earned his medals at Mai Lai in Vietnam
And it's lend me ten pounds, I'll buy you a drink
And mother wake me early in the morning
On the first day of March it was raining
It was raining worse than anything that I have ever seen
Stay on the other side of the road
'Cause you can never tell
We've a thirst like a gang of devils
We're the boys from the County Hell
And it's lend me ten pounds, I'll buy you a drink
And mother wake me early in the morning
And it's lend me ten pounds and I'll buy you a drink
And mother wake me early in the morning0 -
What was second episode of the big BBC "Tories are all evil scumbags" drama like tonight?0
-
What will happen when they relax their very strict lockdown? I assume they can't carry on with the policy for long without ruining the economy.Foxy said:Victoria seems to have cracked it.
https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1320486138885394434?s=190 -
I'm so angry about this that I might write to the chair of the inquiry when it is launched. That's how I feel now. Whether I still will in 2025 when the next PM finally launches the inquiry I don't know.FrancisUrquhart said:
Unfortunately, I doubt those conducting such an inquiry will have the expert knowledge to really understand what the likes of myself and MaxPB are talking about. I can foresee instead it all just becoming political and bogged down in who said what when, which email didn't get answered, what Big Dom shouted as the tea lady etc etc etc.rottenborough said:
I do hope the public inquiry covers this area, because personally I think it has been utterly woeful and an entire political class has been driven by a prediction engine that basically doesn't predict.FrancisUrquhart said:
Well this was part of the criticism. His model was made using outdated set of tools, which makes it clear he hasn't updated it and adapted to both flaws of it when it previously hit the real world (i.e. the swing flu), but neither has he kept up with the state of the art mathematical modelling techniques.rottenborough said:
What ever was the best language to build the 'sim' virus model (which incidentally was written for an influenza type virus rather than a SARs-type) the key issue, imho, is the it has failed repeatedly to be anywhere near the turned out reality.FrancisUrquhart said:
Neither a Deep Neural Net or a genetic algorithm is really the best approach. Something like Gaussian Processes based model is (and no that doesn't mean just fit a gaussian curve though some data).TimT said:
By machine learning, are you talking about neural networks, or genetic algorithms? The former require tons of historical data, so are not so useful if you're dealing with inherently unknowable systems or situations where you either have no data or you only have low confidence in what you have. I think, for example, they will axiomatically fail to predict black swans or emergent properties that are not in the historical data used to train them.MaxPB said:
I'm not so sure, I've implemented ML in a few areas of my work and it's been very helpful, but I agree that it isn't a silver bullet for every scenario. It's definitely well ahead of Blockchain in real world use, I mean in gaming DLSS is about to make native resolution obsolete and that's built on ML. Blockchain is vaporware, ML definitely isn't.Pagan2 said:
Don't mistake me I am not saying machine learning doesnt have a place. Sadly like much in the it world it almost feels like its becoming the silver bullet.....whatever the problem machine learning is the answer or block chainMaxPB said:
I think the point being made is that him using C shows how outdated his approach is.Pagan2 said:
Sigh does no one read what you write here anymore. I didn't argue c was the correct tool I merely asserted it wasn't an obsolete language. I said the right tool for the right job. I suspect in the case of covid however the model itself is the flaw rather than the language it is written in.MaxPB said:
Half of the computing world isn't trying to predict a viral replication model within a modelled real world scenario. It is what ML is made to do, using Python which has a whole host of ML libraries and can use GPU acceleration would be the correct way of doing it. I couldn't imagine anyone in my industry creating a predictive model in C and banking is at the forefront of ML, C is just old fashioned and unsuitable for using Tensorflow or PyTorch either of which are extensively used for deep learning which is what a problem like this needs.Pagan2 said:
Me too.Alistair said:
Nah, the polls appear g on their website are just made up. The 3 that appeared today and caused a stir are genuine-but-crap. NoticeSeaShantyIrish2 said:
Likely they've got some techie who takes txt & robo push-button responses to push-polling questions (where the REAL point is message NOT the response) then re-configures results based on demographics obtained from source OTHER than the actual texts & calls.Alistair said:Trafalgar have just slapped a NC poll up on their site.
And you are never going to believe it, it has exactly the same demographics as the one from September.
Outstanding consistency
Then Cahaly pumps it out as another Trafalgar Group "poll".
This is all supposition - but it DOES fit the known facts (including TG's own vague "explanation" re: methodology) AND is certainly right in the Lee Atwater - Karl Rove (remember him?) wheelhouse.
John Carmack looked at the code and said it looked fine.Pagan2 said:
C is most definitely not an obsolete language it is still widely used for good reasons. That is however not to say its necessarily the best to use for those models. I can't comment on that because I haven't seen the models but C is I believe still one of the top ten languages and is still the best to choose often for embedded purposes. Like everything it is the right tool for the right purpose.DecrepiterJohnL said:
The obsolete programming language was C, used for linux and android and therefore probably the most important and most commonly deployed language. (Obscure namedrop: I was once stuck in a lift with that there Dennis Ritchie.) I've not been following modelgate but gather some Microsofties had a go at porting Ferguson's code to C++ for no readily apparent reason except that is what programmers like to do: reimplement the wheel in a new language.FrancisUrquhart said:
Lots of questions over the academic response over this, especially early on. Many so called experts not leveraging standard modern tools. Much that everybody laughed at the use of Excel for of the testing data, we saw with the likes of Ferguson model is was a similar shit show of coding / obselete programming language and paradigms.Jonathan said:
The NHS, academic and pharmaceutical contribution is world class.MaxPB said:
Not really, it's been very disorganised and people have been proved to be irresponsible and not isolating after testing positive and the state has been left wanting in many areas. Any thoughts of exceptionalism should have been washed away by the virus response both from the state and the people.Jonathan said:
The British response to Corona has much to be proud of, with only the government letting the side down.Big_G_NorthWales said:
We seem to delight in attacking our own system which I understand is near a 400,000 a day capacity and is not far off Germany.MaxPB said:
Not particularly, I'd say that France, Spain, Netherlands and Belgium testing is worse than our system, Germany and Italy probably marginally better.Big_G_NorthWales said:
An honest questionMaxPB said:
Tbf, this is us in two weeks unless the government gets a grip on self isolation and testing failures.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is seriously worrying right across Europe just nowMaxPB said:52k cases in France. Wtf is happening over there.
Is anyone testing in Europe any better than the UK or Germany
Ultimately every country suffers from the same issue of people not isolating after testing positive. Nations who have effectively defeated the virus have very good isolation measures (Australia, NZ) or people who are responsible and isolate properly without needing special measures (SK, Japan).
And of course the countries who have best dealt with this are all in the Southern Hemisphere and in New Zealand case 1500 miles from nearest land in Australia and comprises two islands with wide open spaces
We are still seeing it now with the model for how effective a circuit breaker might be providing nonsensical results.
When all this is over, we might reflect that Dominic Cummings and pb's own @SeanT were right about one thing. Britain does need to invest more in research.
I would have more concern if the models were done in something live javascript than c.
That is more than good enough for me.
The point I was making was merely that C is an old language but that doesn't make it obsolete. I wasn't arguing it was the right choice for this however I said I didn't know as hadn't seen the model.
Half the computer world still runs on C, apache web servers, linux, most embedded stuff etc.
Further as to machine learning personally that is over hyped and unproven. We have a huge amount of examples of machine learning where what the machine learnt isn't what people thought they had taught it. Facial recognition, predictive crime etc being the two most egregious but lots of others out there.
ML is great for these kinds of problems because people are predictably unpredictable. Predicting a person's behaviour is impossible, predicting population behaviour isn't and it's one of the major uses of it.
Agree that facial recognition and crime models are a pile of dogshit, but that doesn't invalidate the approach to other more suitable problems. Viral replication is probably one of the most suitable problems for ML as it's a multivariate analysis and we have a huge amount of data available now. Another good area is medical outcome modelling, a friend of mine works for Babylon and they've been doing some incredible work on it.
For genetic algorithms, I am not sure how evolved solutions in silico will necessarily be better than those evolved through acquisition of genuine expertise.
I am not an expert in this area, and so would welcome correction and enlightenment if I am wrong.
PS These comments relate to machine learning in complex adaptive systems - I realize that it can be very effective in better defined, deterministic systems
And as far as I am aware no changes have been made to the model based on what has actually happened in the real world (happy to be corrected on this).
During phone hacking, it became solely about the characters, the celebs, the politicians, not as only the Indy really looked at, some quite technical stuff, how many companies were exploited, how there was some proper serious hacking and was it justified, etc.0 -
Agreed, although I suspect Trump will have difficulty understanding that.Foxy said:
Those numbers look bad for Trump, considering the percentages voted already.Benpointer said:
Of course, Biden can still win the Presidency, even losing these three states, by picking up the more probable wins of PA, MI and WI.Alistair said:0 -
Not only wouldn't it be acceptable in the West, they spent 5 years putting together this tech together in response to being hit hard by SARs.Pagan2 said:
South Korea did it by methods which wouldn't be tolerated here. Tools not available to us as they would never be politically palatable to people in europe. Hell we have resistance to the measures the government is proposing let alone the very invasive south korean methodsYBarddCwsc said:
I suspect that there is a course of action in which you get a moderately good outcome in terms of both deaths and the economy.Pagan2 said:
You are assuming here there is a ridge and the choice isnt merely which valley. The ridge also may be just be another valley only in this one we have both destroyed the economy and the pandemic is raging.YBarddCwsc said:The Covid Modelling Problem is like a ball rolling down a knife-edge ridge, between two deep, deep valleys.
The ball might roll down the the ridge the whole way, but way more likely, it will end up in the valley on on one side of the ridge, or the other. Small differences in starting position, velocity and angle make a huge difference as to which valley you drop into.
In one of the valleys, you have suppressed the virus, but destroyed your economy. In the other valley, you have lost complete control of the virus & the pandemic is raging.
There is only a tiny bit of middle ground on the ridge, so it looks impossible to get the ball down the ridge without it dropping in the valley.
Can we do it?
What we have to do is use human behaviour to get the ball safely down the ridge. When the epidemic gets out of control, humans must do better social distancing, so the ball can stay on track & not drop into one valley.
When the epidemic starts to fade, humans must loosen up to keep the ball on the ridge & not drop into the other valley.
It is is almost impossible to model this because it needs maths+psychology+economics. There are just huge feedback loops, as the system changes, so does peoples' behaviour.
E.g., Hasn't South Korea done pretty well so far in getting the ball down the ridge?
Maybe there really is a valley in which you have destroyed your economy AND have a raging pandemic? But it looks like it is way easier to get the ball into one of the other two valleys.0 -
No way is Biden going to lose PA. Home base.Benpointer said:
Of course, Biden can still win the Presidency, even losing these three states, by picking up the more probable wins of PA, MI and WI.Alistair said:0 -
Thats ok we can put Dido in chargeFrancisUrquhart said:
Not only wouldn't it be acceptable in the West, they spent 5 years putting together this tech together in response to being hit hard by SARs.Pagan2 said:
South Korea did it by methods which wouldn't be tolerated here. Tools not available to us as they would never be politically palatable to people in europe. Hell we have resistance to the measures the government is proposing let alone the very invasive south korean methodsYBarddCwsc said:
I suspect that there is a course of action in which you get a moderately good outcome in terms of both deaths and the economy.Pagan2 said:
You are assuming here there is a ridge and the choice isnt merely which valley. The ridge also may be just be another valley only in this one we have both destroyed the economy and the pandemic is raging.YBarddCwsc said:The Covid Modelling Problem is like a ball rolling down a knife-edge ridge, between two deep, deep valleys.
The ball might roll down the the ridge the whole way, but way more likely, it will end up in the valley on on one side of the ridge, or the other. Small differences in starting position, velocity and angle make a huge difference as to which valley you drop into.
In one of the valleys, you have suppressed the virus, but destroyed your economy. In the other valley, you have lost complete control of the virus & the pandemic is raging.
There is only a tiny bit of middle ground on the ridge, so it looks impossible to get the ball down the ridge without it dropping in the valley.
Can we do it?
What we have to do is use human behaviour to get the ball safely down the ridge. When the epidemic gets out of control, humans must do better social distancing, so the ball can stay on track & not drop into one valley.
When the epidemic starts to fade, humans must loosen up to keep the ball on the ridge & not drop into the other valley.
It is is almost impossible to model this because it needs maths+psychology+economics. There are just huge feedback loops, as the system changes, so does peoples' behaviour.
E.g., Hasn't South Korea done pretty well so far in getting the ball down the ridge?
Maybe there really is a valley in which you have destroyed your economy AND have a raging pandemic? But it looks like it is way easier to get the ball into one of the other two valleys.0 -
I happen to agree that they are not palatable .... yet.Pagan2 said:
South Korea did it by methods which wouldn't be tolerated here. Tools not available to us as they would never be politically palatable to people in europe. Hell we have resistance to the measures the government is proposing let alone the very invasive south korean methodsYBarddCwsc said:
I suspect that there is a course of action in which you get a moderately good outcome in terms of both deaths and the economy.Pagan2 said:
You are assuming here there is a ridge and the choice isnt merely which valley. The ridge also may be just be another valley only in this one we have both destroyed the economy and the pandemic is raging.YBarddCwsc said:The Covid Modelling Problem is like a ball rolling down a knife-edge ridge, between two deep, deep valleys.
The ball might roll down the the ridge the whole way, but way more likely, it will end up in the valley on on one side of the ridge, or the other. Small differences in starting position, velocity and angle make a huge difference as to which valley you drop into.
In one of the valleys, you have suppressed the virus, but destroyed your economy. In the other valley, you have lost complete control of the virus & the pandemic is raging.
There is only a tiny bit of middle ground on the ridge, so it looks impossible to get the ball down the ridge without it dropping in the valley.
Can we do it?
What we have to do is use human behaviour to get the ball safely down the ridge. When the epidemic gets out of control, humans must do better social distancing, so the ball can stay on track & not drop into one valley.
When the epidemic starts to fade, humans must loosen up to keep the ball on the ridge & not drop into the other valley.
It is is almost impossible to model this because it needs maths+psychology+economics. There are just huge feedback loops, as the system changes, so does peoples' behaviour.
E.g., Hasn't South Korea done pretty well so far in getting the ball down the ridge?
Maybe there really is a valley in which you have destroyed your economy AND have a raging pandemic? But it looks like it is way easier to get the ball into one of the other two valleys.
But that is beside the point.
I am just try to explain why I think the problem is not one of just using tensorflow or deep learning.0 -
Life rendered this piece of art (sic) redundant this past week.FrancisUrquhart said:What was second episode of the big BBC "Tories are all evil scumbags" drama like tonight?
0 -
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1320494835422416899/photo/1
Standby for Johnson world beating vaccine bluster speech this week to hide the 'are there no workhouses?' u-turn.0 -
The PVI (Cook Partisan Voting Index) for Montana is R+11. So if Biden were 11 ahead nationally you'd expect Montana to be levelGallowgate said:RMG Research are showing the Montana House race as a dead heat. Seems odd when its been won by the GOP since 1997 and voted overwhelmingly for Trump in 2016.
Just saying.0 -
Montana has had Democrat governors since 2005.Gallowgate said:RMG Research are showing the Montana House race as a dead heat. Seems odd when its been won by the GOP since 1997 and voted overwhelmingly for Trump in 2016.
Yes. I was surprised too.0 -
In 2018 it was only won by 4 and a half points.Gallowgate said:RMG Research are showing the Montana House race as a dead heat. Seems odd when its been won by the GOP since 1997 and voted overwhelmingly for Trump in 2016.
This is why I am banging on about the utter landslide Congressional District polling is showing.
If it is at all reliable this Presidential election is more done than a pizza left in the oven of a student flat over night because it was put in by someone returning late from the club who was hungry but then they were so long they forgot about it and then their flatmate discovered it then next day completely black shrunk to a third its size.
That level of done.0 -
I bet they have plotted something completely over the top and unbelievable like the caricature evil Tories denying starving children food.FrancisUrquhart said:What was second episode of the big BBC "Tories are all evil scumbags" drama like tonight?
0 -
Montana is a big state size-wise but small in population; the US House seat is At-Large, meaning they've only got the one (though MT is projected to gain, or rather re-gain a 2nd seat after 2020 census).Gallowgate said:RMG Research are showing the Montana House race as a dead heat. Seems odd when its been won by the GOP since 1997 and voted overwhelmingly for Trump in 2016.
This means that voters are MUCH closer to statewide electeds than in most of the Union. Throw in traditional Western US political independent streak, and you have plenty of potential for ticket-splitting. Sometimes is very creative ways!1 -
Part of the problem there is the fault of western governments not just ours but all of them.YBarddCwsc said:
I happen to agree that they are not palatable .... yet.Pagan2 said:
South Korea did it by methods which wouldn't be tolerated here. Tools not available to us as they would never be politically palatable to people in europe. Hell we have resistance to the measures the government is proposing let alone the very invasive south korean methodsYBarddCwsc said:
I suspect that there is a course of action in which you get a moderately good outcome in terms of both deaths and the economy.Pagan2 said:
You are assuming here there is a ridge and the choice isnt merely which valley. The ridge also may be just be another valley only in this one we have both destroyed the economy and the pandemic is raging.YBarddCwsc said:The Covid Modelling Problem is like a ball rolling down a knife-edge ridge, between two deep, deep valleys.
The ball might roll down the the ridge the whole way, but way more likely, it will end up in the valley on on one side of the ridge, or the other. Small differences in starting position, velocity and angle make a huge difference as to which valley you drop into.
In one of the valleys, you have suppressed the virus, but destroyed your economy. In the other valley, you have lost complete control of the virus & the pandemic is raging.
There is only a tiny bit of middle ground on the ridge, so it looks impossible to get the ball down the ridge without it dropping in the valley.
Can we do it?
What we have to do is use human behaviour to get the ball safely down the ridge. When the epidemic gets out of control, humans must do better social distancing, so the ball can stay on track & not drop into one valley.
When the epidemic starts to fade, humans must loosen up to keep the ball on the ridge & not drop into the other valley.
It is is almost impossible to model this because it needs maths+psychology+economics. There are just huge feedback loops, as the system changes, so does peoples' behaviour.
E.g., Hasn't South Korea done pretty well so far in getting the ball down the ridge?
Maybe there really is a valley in which you have destroyed your economy AND have a raging pandemic? But it looks like it is way easier to get the ball into one of the other two valleys.
But that is beside the point.
I am just try to explain why I think the problem is not one of just using tensorflow or deep learning.
I would be fine if this was something they had and could turn on in extreme circumstances such as covid if I trusted them to a) turn it off again, b) not then go on to sell all the data to their cronies, c) not allow every officious little git in your local council, ngo, private company performing a government contract access to it, d) leave it on an unecryted cd on the train
0 -
Excellent point. There are many factors here, not just economy v uncontrolled epidemic. Privacy, education, trust, individual economic security, infrastructure, cohabitation profiles, communication, global awareness, individual/collective balance, culture, diversity, prevalence of risk factors, and probably several more I'm missing. All of these things guide that ball up and down slopes and valleys.Pagan2 said:
South Korea did it by methods which wouldn't be tolerated here. Tools not available to us as they would never be politically palatable to people in europe. Hell we have resistance to the measures the government is proposing let alone the very invasive south korean methodsYBarddCwsc said:
I suspect that there is a course of action in which you get a moderately good outcome in terms of both deaths and the economy.Pagan2 said:
You are assuming here there is a ridge and the choice isnt merely which valley. The ridge also may be just be another valley only in this one we have both destroyed the economy and the pandemic is raging.YBarddCwsc said:The Covid Modelling Problem is like a ball rolling down a knife-edge ridge, between two deep, deep valleys.
The ball might roll down the the ridge the whole way, but way more likely, it will end up in the valley on on one side of the ridge, or the other. Small differences in starting position, velocity and angle make a huge difference as to which valley you drop into.
In one of the valleys, you have suppressed the virus, but destroyed your economy. In the other valley, you have lost complete control of the virus & the pandemic is raging.
There is only a tiny bit of middle ground on the ridge, so it looks impossible to get the ball down the ridge without it dropping in the valley.
Can we do it?
What we have to do is use human behaviour to get the ball safely down the ridge. When the epidemic gets out of control, humans must do better social distancing, so the ball can stay on track & not drop into one valley.
When the epidemic starts to fade, humans must loosen up to keep the ball on the ridge & not drop into the other valley.
It is is almost impossible to model this because it needs maths+psychology+economics. There are just huge feedback loops, as the system changes, so does peoples' behaviour.
E.g., Hasn't South Korea done pretty well so far in getting the ball down the ridge?
Maybe there really is a valley in which you have destroyed your economy AND have a raging pandemic? But it looks like it is way easier to get the ball into one of the other two valleys.
It's much more complex than most people seem to realise, and one of the weaknesses we have in this country is the binary nature of politics these days. Too many people seem happy to dismiss something just because Johnson said it, or because Sturgeon supports it, or whatever.0 -
'Covid test in boots' and 'best sex of your life' seem to merge into each other..rottenborough said:0 -
I thought it was pretty clunky. You can virtually hear the gears changing. The scenes with the PM are just awful. Bit disappointed in the first two episodes to be honest.FrancisUrquhart said:What was second episode of the big BBC "Tories are all evil scumbags" drama like tonight?
But Birgitte Nyborg is in it briefly, to remind those in the know what a top political TV show is like.0 -
This could never happen here.CarlottaVance said:
Except it already is.
From the linked Axios report: Trump last week signed an executive order that set off alarm bells as a means to politicize the civil service. An administration official said the order "is a really big deal" that would make it easier for presidents to get rid of career government officials.
https://www.axios.com/trump-firing-wray-haspel-esper-088cbd70-3524-4625-91f1-dbc985767c71.html
Sound familiar? Trump is America's Boris Johnson.0 -
I thought of a swab/deep throat joke, but I won't share that gag.Theuniondivvie said:
'Covid test in boots' and 'best sex of your life' seem to merge into each other..rottenborough said:0 -
Any sex after 50 is the best of your life. It might be your last.Theuniondivvie said:
'Covid test in boots' and 'best sex of your life' seem to merge into each other..rottenborough said:0 -
Yes, the idea that it can be beaten is insidious nonsense. It can be mitigated, those at most risk can be protected, we can get better at treating it, but it won’t ever be vanquished. This needs to be said more often.Andy_JS said:We can't defeat Covid. We just have to manage it as best we can.
1 -
Was that pizza with or without pineapple?Alistair said:
In 2018 it was only won by 4 and a half points.Gallowgate said:RMG Research are showing the Montana House race as a dead heat. Seems odd when its been won by the GOP since 1997 and voted overwhelmingly for Trump in 2016.
This is why I am banging on about the utter landslide Congressional District polling is showing.
If it is at all reliable this Presidential election is more done than a pizza left in the oven of a student flat over night because it was put in by someone returning late from the club who was hungry but then they were so long they forgot about it and then their flatmate discovered it then next day completely black shrunk to a third its size.
That level of done.0 -
Not easy to protect the vulnerable in reality until there is a vaccine.Anabobazina said:
Yes, the idea that it can be beaten is insidious nonsense. It can be mitigated, those at most risk can be protected, we can get better at treating it, but it won’t ever be vanquished. This needs to be said more often.Andy_JS said:We can't defeat Covid. We just have to manage it as best we can.
It's won't kill of the problem, but will make it a lot easier to manage.0 -
SurveyMonkey just dropped a whole load of new state polls. Highlights:
General Election
Biden 52%
Trump 46%
Arizona
Biden 53%
Trump 45%
Florida
Trump 49%
Biden 48%
North Carolina
Biden 52%
Trump 46%
Nevada
Biden 50%
Trump 49%
Ohio
Trump 51%
Biden 48%
Pennsylvania
Biden 52%
Trump 46%
Georgia
Biden 50%
Trump 49%
Michigan
Biden 53%
Trump 45%
Texas
Trump 51%
Biden 48%
Wisconsin
Biden 55%
Trump 43%0 -
Until a few years ago it was common for Western States that were reliably Republican voting for President and (usually) US Senate & House to vote in Democrats as Governor.dixiedean said:
Montana has had Democrat governors since 2005.Gallowgate said:RMG Research are showing the Montana House race as a dead heat. Seems odd when its been won by the GOP since 1997 and voted overwhelmingly for Trump in 2016.
Yes. I was surprised too.
On reason Montana has kept on doing so, is because unlike it's neighbors Idaho and Wyoming is is less dominated by Republicans, thus giving more scope to swing voters & ticket-splitters.0 -
Timeline slipping further....know by end of December...rottenborough said:twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1320494835422416899/photo/1
Standby for Johnson world beating vaccine bluster speech this week to hide the 'are there no workhouses?' u-turn.0 -
It was said at the beginning of this by the likes of Witty, then we got into all this nonsense of be sorted by summer, by September, by the end of the year.Anabobazina said:
Yes, the idea that it can be beaten is insidious nonsense. It can be mitigated, those at most risk can be protected, we can get better at treating it, but it won’t ever be vanquished. This needs to be said more often.Andy_JS said:We can't defeat Covid. We just have to manage it as best we can.
0 -
The argument over free school meals is such an example. Sadly in this country while I as a voter would like politicians to expound policies they believe will help solve a problem then produce evidence it worked or abandon if they find it doesnt and use results to garner votes, instead they propose policies that they think will get votes and dont give a damn if they work or not as no one can actually find out for sure if they had an effect or not.Roy_G_Biv said:
Excellent point. There are many factors here, not just economy v uncontrolled epidemic. Privacy, education, trust, individual economic security, infrastructure, cohabitation profiles, communication, global awareness, individual/collective balance, culture, diversity, prevalence of risk factors, and probably several more I'm missing. All of these things guide that ball up and down slopes and valleys.Pagan2 said:
South Korea did it by methods which wouldn't be tolerated here. Tools not available to us as they would never be politically palatable to people in europe. Hell we have resistance to the measures the government is proposing let alone the very invasive south korean methodsYBarddCwsc said:
I suspect that there is a course of action in which you get a moderately good outcome in terms of both deaths and the economy.Pagan2 said:
You are assuming here there is a ridge and the choice isnt merely which valley. The ridge also may be just be another valley only in this one we have both destroyed the economy and the pandemic is raging.YBarddCwsc said:The Covid Modelling Problem is like a ball rolling down a knife-edge ridge, between two deep, deep valleys.
The ball might roll down the the ridge the whole way, but way more likely, it will end up in the valley on on one side of the ridge, or the other. Small differences in starting position, velocity and angle make a huge difference as to which valley you drop into.
In one of the valleys, you have suppressed the virus, but destroyed your economy. In the other valley, you have lost complete control of the virus & the pandemic is raging.
There is only a tiny bit of middle ground on the ridge, so it looks impossible to get the ball down the ridge without it dropping in the valley.
Can we do it?
What we have to do is use human behaviour to get the ball safely down the ridge. When the epidemic gets out of control, humans must do better social distancing, so the ball can stay on track & not drop into one valley.
When the epidemic starts to fade, humans must loosen up to keep the ball on the ridge & not drop into the other valley.
It is is almost impossible to model this because it needs maths+psychology+economics. There are just huge feedback loops, as the system changes, so does peoples' behaviour.
E.g., Hasn't South Korea done pretty well so far in getting the ball down the ridge?
Maybe there really is a valley in which you have destroyed your economy AND have a raging pandemic? But it looks like it is way easier to get the ball into one of the other two valleys.
It's much more complex than most people seem to realise, and one of the weaknesses we have in this country is the binary nature of politics these days. Too many people seem happy to dismiss something just because Johnson said it, or because Sturgeon supports it, or whatever.
Earlier tonight I asked Nick Palmer an ex mp for evidence that the extra 20£ a week on uc had reduced malnourished children as his party was proposing another 15£ a week as a cure to the problem. Not because I was singling him out but because I figured he probably had access to people that could get that answer.
If there is evidence it made good inroads on the problem I would change my mind on the extra 15£ a week. I suspect there isn't however else the tories would be trumpeting it.
For me as a non partisan in as much as I call both tory and labour posters up when I think they are talking bs the "Not does it sound good but does it work and is it value for money" is important1 -
Does it never occur to these people that when the other side take power they will have the same tools available to them if you do this kind of change?DecrepiterJohnL said:
This could never happen here.CarlottaVance said:
Except it already is.
From the linked Axios report: Trump last week signed an executive order that set off alarm bells as a means to politicize the civil service. An administration official said the order "is a really big deal" that would make it easier for presidents to get rid of career government officials.
https://www.axios.com/trump-firing-wray-haspel-esper-088cbd70-3524-4625-91f1-dbc985767c71.html
Sound familiar? Trump is America's Boris Johnson.0 -
Erm, how so? It has had an oppressive lockdown which reduced the great city of Melbourne to the daily excitement levels of Leicester. Anyone can stop Covid temporarily by hiding under the bed.Foxy said:Victoria seems to have cracked it.
https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1320486138885394434?s=19
It hasn’t ‘cracked’ anything.0 -
And if it happens in 2025 the report will likely be released in 2030 plusrottenborough said:
I'm so angry about this that I might write to the chair of the inquiry when it is launched. That's how I feel now. Whether I still will in 2025 when the next PM finally launches the inquiry I don't know.FrancisUrquhart said:
Unfortunately, I doubt those conducting such an inquiry will have the expert knowledge to really understand what the likes of myself and MaxPB are talking about. I can foresee instead it all just becoming political and bogged down in who said what when, which email didn't get answered, what Big Dom shouted as the tea lady etc etc etc.rottenborough said:
I do hope the public inquiry covers this area, because personally I think it has been utterly woeful and an entire political class has been driven by a prediction engine that basically doesn't predict.FrancisUrquhart said:
Well this was part of the criticism. His model was made using outdated set of tools, which makes it clear he hasn't updated it and adapted to both flaws of it when it previously hit the real world (i.e. the swing flu), but neither has he kept up with the state of the art mathematical modelling techniques.rottenborough said:
What ever was the best language to build the 'sim' virus model (which incidentally was written for an influenza type virus rather than a SARs-type) the key issue, imho, is the it has failed repeatedly to be anywhere near the turned out reality.FrancisUrquhart said:
Neither a Deep Neural Net or a genetic algorithm is really the best approach. Something like Gaussian Processes based model is (and no that doesn't mean just fit a gaussian curve though some data).TimT said:
By machine learning, are you talking about neural networks, or genetic algorithms? The former require tons of historical data, so are not so useful if you're dealing with inherently unknowable systems or situations where you either have no data or you only have low confidence in what you have. I think, for example, they will axiomatically fail to predict black swans or emergent properties that are not in the historical data used to train them.MaxPB said:
I'm not so sure, I've implemented ML in a few areas of my work and it's been very helpful, but I agree that it isn't a silver bullet for every scenario. It's definitely well ahead of Blockchain in real world use, I mean in gaming DLSS is about to make native resolution obsolete and that's built on ML. Blockchain is vaporware, ML definitely isn't.Pagan2 said:
Don't mistake me I am not saying machine learning doesnt have a place. Sadly like much in the it world it almost feels like its becoming the silver bullet.....whatever the problem machine learning is the answer or block chainMaxPB said:
I think the point being made is that him using C shows how outdated his approach is.Pagan2 said:
Sigh does no one read what you write here anymore. I didn't argue c was the correct tool I merely asserted it wasn't an obsolete language. I said the right tool for the right job. I suspect in the case of covid however the model itself is the flaw rather than the language it is written in.MaxPB said:
Half of the computing world isn't trying to predict a viral replication model within a modelled real world scenario. It is what ML is made to do, using Python which has a whole host of ML libraries and can use GPU acceleration would be the correct way of doing it. I couldn't imagine anyone in my industry creating a predictive model in C and banking is at the forefront of ML, C is just old fashioned and unsuitable for using Tensorflow or PyTorch either of which are extensively used for deep learning which is what a problem like this needs.Pagan2 said:
Me too.Alistair said:
Nah, the polls appear g on their website are just made up. The 3 that appeared today and caused a stir are genuine-but-crap. NoticeSeaShantyIrish2 said:
Likely they've got some techie who takes txt & robo push-button responses to push-polling questions (where the REAL point is message NOT the response) then re-configures results based on demographics obtained from source OTHER than the actual texts & calls.Alistair said:Trafalgar have just slapped a NC poll up on their site.
And you are never going to believe it, it has exactly the same demographics as the one from September.
Outstanding consistency
Then Cahaly pumps it out as another Trafalgar Group "poll".
This is all supposition - but it DOES fit the known facts (including TG's own vague "explanation" re: methodology) AND is certainly right in the Lee Atwater - Karl Rove (remember him?) wheelhouse.
John Carmack looked at the code and said it looked fine.Pagan2 said:
C is most definitely not an obsolete language it is still widely used for good reasons. That is however not to say its necessarily the best to use for those models. I can't comment on that because I haven't seen the models but C is I believe still one of the top ten languages and is still the best to choose often for embedded purposes. Like everything it is the right tool for the right purpose.DecrepiterJohnL said:
The obsolete programming language was C, used for linux and android and therefore probably the most important and most commonly deployed language. (Obscure namedrop: I was once stuck in a lift with that there Dennis Ritchie.) I've not been following modelgate but gather some Microsofties had a go at porting Ferguson's code to C++ for no readily apparent reason except that is what programmers like to do: reimplement the wheel in a new language.FrancisUrquhart said:
Lots of questions over the academic response over this, especially early on. Many so called experts not leveraging standard modern tools. Much that everybody laughed at the use of Excel for of the testing data, we saw with the likes of Ferguson model is was a similar shit show of coding / obselete programming language and paradigms.Jonathan said:
The NHS, academic and pharmaceutical contribution is world class.MaxPB said:
Not really, it's been very disorganised and people have been proved to be irresponsible and not isolating after testing positive and the state has been left wanting in many areas. Any thoughts of exceptionalism should have been washed away by the virus response both from the state and the people.Jonathan said:
The British response to Corona has much to be proud of, with only the government letting the side down.Big_G_NorthWales said:
We seem to delight in attacking our own system which I understand is near a 400,000 a day capacity and is not far off Germany.MaxPB said:
Not particularly, I'd say that France, Spain, Netherlands and Belgium testing is worse than our system, Germany and Italy probably marginally better.Big_G_NorthWales said:
An honest questionMaxPB said:
Tbf, this is us in two weeks unless the government gets a grip on self isolation and testing failures.Big_G_NorthWales said:
It is seriously worrying right across Europe just nowMaxPB said:52k cases in France. Wtf is happening over there.
Is anyone testing in Europe any better than the UK or Germany
Ultimately every country suffers from the same issue of people not isolating after testing positive. Nations who have effectively defeated the virus have very good isolation measures (Australia, NZ) or people who are responsible and isolate properly without needing special measures (SK, Japan).
And of course the countries who have best dealt with this are all in the Southern Hemisphere and in New Zealand case 1500 miles from nearest land in Australia and comprises two islands with wide open spaces
We are still seeing it now with the model for how effective a circuit breaker might be providing nonsensical results.
When all this is over, we might reflect that Dominic Cummings and pb's own @SeanT were right about one thing. Britain does need to invest more in research.
I would have more concern if the models were done in something live javascript than c.
That is more than good enough for me.
The point I was making was merely that C is an old language but that doesn't make it obsolete. I wasn't arguing it was the right choice for this however I said I didn't know as hadn't seen the model.
Half the computer world still runs on C, apache web servers, linux, most embedded stuff etc.
Further as to machine learning personally that is over hyped and unproven. We have a huge amount of examples of machine learning where what the machine learnt isn't what people thought they had taught it. Facial recognition, predictive crime etc being the two most egregious but lots of others out there.
ML is great for these kinds of problems because people are predictably unpredictable. Predicting a person's behaviour is impossible, predicting population behaviour isn't and it's one of the major uses of it.
Agree that facial recognition and crime models are a pile of dogshit, but that doesn't invalidate the approach to other more suitable problems. Viral replication is probably one of the most suitable problems for ML as it's a multivariate analysis and we have a huge amount of data available now. Another good area is medical outcome modelling, a friend of mine works for Babylon and they've been doing some incredible work on it.
For genetic algorithms, I am not sure how evolved solutions in silico will necessarily be better than those evolved through acquisition of genuine expertise.
I am not an expert in this area, and so would welcome correction and enlightenment if I am wrong.
PS These comments relate to machine learning in complex adaptive systems - I realize that it can be very effective in better defined, deterministic systems
And as far as I am aware no changes have been made to the model based on what has actually happened in the real world (happy to be corrected on this).
During phone hacking, it became solely about the characters, the celebs, the politicians, not as only the Indy really looked at, some quite technical stuff, how many companies were exploited, how there was some proper serious hacking and was it justified, etc.0 -
'Just call me Long Covid'Roy_G_Biv said:
I thought of a swab/deep throat joke, but I won't share that gag.Theuniondivvie said:
'Covid test in boots' and 'best sex of your life' seem to merge into each other..rottenborough said:2 -
Agreed.SandyRentool said:
I reckon Melania has voted Biden.rottenborough said:
It's over if Putin has thrown in the towel.OllyT said:
Another of Mr Ed's fantasy "game changers" IIRCSeaShantyIrish2 said:
Strange. Weren't we told on PB that this scandal was gonna blow the lid off the 2020 presidential race?Scott_xP said:
Indeed is IS a scandal, what Trumpskyites have been doing here. Sadly for them, turns out to be a boomerang.
Trump only has his family and the lawyer with his hand down his trousers left.0 -
ME2 now red on 538.0
-
Democratic governors of reliably red states and Republican governors of reliably blue states are not as uncommon as one would think. Americans are often leery about handing all the keys to one party, especially at state level. If one party has a lock or near lock on the state legislature, then it can allow the other party’s candidate for the executive mansion to run as a brake on their opponents’ absolute power.dixiedean said:
Montana has had Democrat governors since 2005.Gallowgate said:RMG Research are showing the Montana House race as a dead heat. Seems odd when its been won by the GOP since 1997 and voted overwhelmingly for Trump in 2016.
Yes. I was surprised too.0 -
Is there a possible (not probable) scenario whereby Biden wins NC and TX but fails to flip FL and the rustbelt states? I dunno, I know it’s unlikely, but could it happen?0
-
OMG. That means Trump is going to win again, doesn't it?Gallowgate said:ME2 now red on 538.
0 -
From wiki,FrancisUrquhart said:Frank Bough dead
"Bough was born in Fenton, Stoke-on-Trent, Staffordshire. He was educated at Oswestry Boys' High School (a Shropshire County Council secular grammar school after passing his eleven-plus exam), Oswestry, Shropshire, and at Merton College, Oxford, where he studied Shipping Management."
An Honours degree in Shipping Management at Merton College, Oxford ...0 -
On topic: I can't remember how long I was on free school meals in the 1980s, maybe 2-3 years. As another_richard said yesterday, it certainly isn't something that is spoken about at the school gate, but not because it isn't there.
My folks bobbled along reasonably through most of their working life, white collar and factory jobs, owner occupation, never that much money, but OK. The tricky years came with what was then termed a nervous breakdown, now perhaps would be termed PTSD, as my father had been caught up in two major incidents in his working lunch hours, in the latter of which there had been numerous deaths, something I only fully knew about in the last couple of years.
Money dried up. Mum did restart work during the period when she could, but free school meals was one of the results. In fact, we had a budget of £60 per week max at that stage for weekly shopping, including toiletries and detergents, for a family of 6. I was taken to the shop for mental calculator services and cash was used. It did affect meals, eggs were the protein some days, beans were the veg others - mixed in with some fresher veg and meat meals. I don't remember going hungry, let alone starving (and there is a difference between those two things), but that said I arrived at university nearly 6ft tall and a smidge under 9st.
Now, we were poorer for my Dad's habits (a steady few pints every night, a steady 20 a day), and any abatement during his illness was temporary. These things were not ideal but affordable in normal times, they were certainly regarded as feckless within the house at that point. The difference between what would be seen as not atypical behaviour and fecklessness was simply a change of circumstance - but ultimately we got what we got from the state without prejudice and managed how we managed.
And in that, I'd make this point - in most circumstances in which you might like to separate deserving from undeserving, those efforts are likely to be so difficult and invasive to (not) get right, so counterproductive to many that, why bother? Save it for those who really need the undeserving treatment - those in the social care system who are genuinely harming their kids, save it for insisting on best expectation in schools. Keep deservingness at the very edge when it's comes to welfare, a hard life for sure, but reliably there when needed and light on arbitrary judgement.
Today, we have UC's whims, from a cost led deserving vs undeserving drive which is a blind alley (and let's not let off the Blair government in getting here). In widespread bad times, extra feeding will be a boon to many, not life and death, but it still might be fitting shoes or jumpers or the heating bill. The government may not wish to take this on themselves but they could put into the community schemes ad-hoc, many big society efforts get government backing. The attempted demonisation of MR has been plain ugly, politically imbecilic and, yes, scummy.8 -
Generally good for Biden - but NV will worry him.Gallowgate said:SurveyMonkey just dropped a whole load of new state polls. Highlights:
General Election
Biden 52%
Trump 46%
Arizona
Biden 53%
Trump 45%
Florida
Trump 49%
Biden 48%
North Carolina
Biden 52%
Trump 46%
Nevada
Biden 50%
Trump 49%
Ohio
Trump 51%
Biden 48%
Pennsylvania
Biden 52%
Trump 46%
Georgia
Biden 50%
Trump 49%
Michigan
Biden 53%
Trump 45%
Texas
Trump 51%
Biden 48%
Wisconsin
Biden 55%
Trump 43%0 -
Well, Leicester has had restrictions per Tier2 or worse, for 7 months now, and is in a significantly worse place for Covid-19Anabobazina said:
Erm, how so? It has had an oppressive lockdown which reduced the great city of Melbourne to the daily excitement levels of Leicester. Anyone can stop Covid temporarily by hiding under the bed.Foxy said:Victoria seems to have cracked it.
https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1320486138885394434?s=19
It hasn’t ‘cracked’ anything.
Those results look quite likely to me. Sometimes all the corrections, adjustments and weighting etc just make a mess of the raw data.Gallowgate said:SurveyMonkey just dropped a whole load of new state polls. Highlights:
General Election
Biden 52%
Trump 46%
Arizona
Biden 53%
Trump 45%
Florida
Trump 49%
Biden 48%
North Carolina
Biden 52%
Trump 46%
Nevada
Biden 50%
Trump 49%
Ohio
Trump 51%
Biden 48%
Pennsylvania
Biden 52%
Trump 46%
Georgia
Biden 50%
Trump 49%
Michigan
Biden 53%
Trump 45%
Texas
Trump 51%
Biden 48%
Wisconsin
Biden 55%
Trump 43%
2 -
This would probably calm his nerves re NV:Anabobazina said:
Generally good for Biden - but NV will worry him.Gallowgate said:SurveyMonkey just dropped a whole load of new state polls. Highlights:
General Election
Biden 52%
Trump 46%
Arizona
Biden 53%
Trump 45%
Florida
Trump 49%
Biden 48%
North Carolina
Biden 52%
Trump 46%
Nevada
Biden 50%
Trump 49%
Ohio
Trump 51%
Biden 48%
Pennsylvania
Biden 52%
Trump 46%
Georgia
Biden 50%
Trump 49%
Michigan
Biden 53%
Trump 45%
Texas
Trump 51%
Biden 48%
Wisconsin
Biden 55%
Trump 43%
https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-31 -
Japan has similar results to Korea with a surveillance system consisting of a version of the gapple app downloaded by nobody except me, and the techology to send faxes in colour.Pagan2 said:
South Korea did it by methods which wouldn't be tolerated here. Tools not available to us as they would never be politically palatable to people in europe. Hell we have resistance to the measures the government is proposing let alone the very invasive south korean methodsYBarddCwsc said:
I suspect that there is a course of action in which you get a moderately good outcome in terms of both deaths and the economy.Pagan2 said:
You are assuming here there is a ridge and the choice isnt merely which valley. The ridge also may be just be another valley only in this one we have both destroyed the economy and the pandemic is raging.YBarddCwsc said:The Covid Modelling Problem is like a ball rolling down a knife-edge ridge, between two deep, deep valleys.
The ball might roll down the the ridge the whole way, but way more likely, it will end up in the valley on on one side of the ridge, or the other. Small differences in starting position, velocity and angle make a huge difference as to which valley you drop into.
In one of the valleys, you have suppressed the virus, but destroyed your economy. In the other valley, you have lost complete control of the virus & the pandemic is raging.
There is only a tiny bit of middle ground on the ridge, so it looks impossible to get the ball down the ridge without it dropping in the valley.
Can we do it?
What we have to do is use human behaviour to get the ball safely down the ridge. When the epidemic gets out of control, humans must do better social distancing, so the ball can stay on track & not drop into one valley.
When the epidemic starts to fade, humans must loosen up to keep the ball on the ridge & not drop into the other valley.
It is is almost impossible to model this because it needs maths+psychology+economics. There are just huge feedback loops, as the system changes, so does peoples' behaviour.
E.g., Hasn't South Korea done pretty well so far in getting the ball down the ridge?
Maybe there really is a valley in which you have destroyed your economy AND have a raging pandemic? But it looks like it is way easier to get the ball into one of the other two valleys.
Beyond taking contact details at venues I'm not sure the initial idea of using payment records and mobile data and to trace people's movements ever really worked out, since it turns out the virus mainly transmits in close contact settings, and you generally know who you were in contact with better than your phone or your credit card does.0 -
Well it is 2020 🤷♂️
https://twitter.com/conflictsw/status/1320499325760397312?s=210 -
Maine 2nd has flipped from Biden to Trump with 538's projection.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/maine-2/0 -
Sounds similar to my childhood however to point out to you while you specify the 1980's you dont specify the year. Taking 1985 as the midpoint therefore 60 a week equates to 183£ todayPro_Rata said:On topic: I can't remember how long I was on free school meals in the 1980s, maybe 2-3 years. As another_richard said yesterday, it certainly isn't something that is spoken about at the school gate, but not because it isn't there.
My folks bobbled along reasonably through most of their working life, white collar and factory jobs, owner occupation, never that much money, but OK. The tricky years came with what was then termed a nervous breakdown, now perhaps would be termed PTSD, as my father had been caught up in two major incidents in his working lunch hours, in the latter of which there had been numerous deaths, something I only fully knew about in the last couple of years.
Money dried up. Mum did restart work during the period when she could, but free school meals was one of the results. In fact, we had a budget of £60 per week max at that stage for weekly shopping, including toiletries and detergents, for a family of 6. I was taken to the shop for mental calculator services and cash was used. It did affect meals, eggs were the protein some days, beans were the veg others - mixed in with some fresher veg and meat meals. I don't remember going hungry, let alone starving (and there is a difference between those two things), but that said I arrived at university nearly 6ft tall and a smidge under 9st.
Now, we were poorer for my Dad's habits (a steady few pints every night, a steady 20 a day), and any abatement during his illness was temporary. These things were not ideal but affordable in normal times, they were certainly regarded as feckless within the house at that point. The difference between what would be seen as not atypical behaviour and fecklessness was simply a change of circumstance - but ultimately we got what we got from the state without prejudice and managed how we managed.
And in that, I'd make this point - in most circumstances in which you might like to separate deserving from undeserving, those efforts are likely to be so difficult and invasive to (not) get right, so counterproductive to many that, why bother? Save it for those who really need the undeserving treatment - those in the social care system who are genuinely harming their kids, save it for insisting on best expectation in schools. Keep deservingness at the very edge when it's comes to welfare, a hard life for sure, but reliably there when needed and light on arbitrary judgement.
Today, we have UC's whims, from a cost led deserving vs undeserving drive which is a blind alley (and let's not let off the Blair government in getting here). In widespread bad times, extra feeding will be a boon to many, not life and death, but it still might be fitting shoes or jumpers or the heating bill. The government may not wish to take this on themselves but they could put into the community schemes ad-hoc, many big society efforts get government backing. The attempted demonisation of MR has been plain ugly, politically imbecilic and, yes, scummy.
source https://www.in2013dollars.com/uk/inflation/1985?amount=60
Your family of 6 however would now be elegible for
488.89+ 281.25+(3x235.83) = 1477.63 a month or 340£ a week
source
https://www.gov.uk/universal-credit/what-youll-get
That is on top of your council tax rebate housing costs and child benefit payments0 -
Those Trafalgar poll details... will we see their like again ?
(Probably not, as they’ve already been taken down.)
https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/13204469998215086090 -
Thank you for this, one of the best reasoned arguments for free school meals and similar programs aimed at helping poor children and families Indeed, a 21st century update of classic British argument against means testing.Pro_Rata said:On topic: I can't remember how long I was on free school meals in the 1980s, maybe 2-3 years. As another_richard said yesterday, it certainly isn't something that is spoken about at the school gate, but not because it isn't there.
My folks bobbled along reasonably through most of their working life, white collar and factory jobs, owner occupation, never that much money, but OK. The tricky years came with what was then termed a nervous breakdown, now perhaps would be termed PTSD, as my father had been caught up in two major incidents in his working lunch hours, in the latter of which there had been numerous deaths, something I only fully knew about in the last couple of years.
Money dried up. Mum did restart work during the period when she could, but free school meals was one of the results. In fact, we had a budget of £60 per week max at that stage for weekly shopping, including toiletries and detergents, for a family of 6. I was taken to the shop for mental calculator services and cash was used. It did affect meals, eggs were the protein some days, beans were the veg others - mixed in with some fresher veg and meat meals. I don't remember going hungry, let alone starving (and there is a difference between those two things), but that said I arrived at university nearly 6ft tall and a smidge under 9st.
Now, we were poorer for my Dad's habits (a steady few pints every night, a steady 20 a day), and any abatement during his illness was temporary. These things were not ideal but affordable in normal times, they were certainly regarded as feckless within the house at that point. The difference between what would be seen as not atypical behaviour and fecklessness was simply a change of circumstance - but ultimately we got what we got from the state without prejudice and managed how we managed.
And in that, I'd make this point - in most circumstances in which you might like to separate deserving from undeserving, those efforts are likely to be so difficult and invasive to (not) get right, so counterproductive to many that, why bother? Save it for those who really need the undeserving treatment - those in the social care system who are genuinely harming their kids, save it for insisting on best expectation in schools. Keep deservingness at the very edge when it's comes to welfare, a hard life for sure, but reliably there when needed and light on arbitrary judgement.
Today, we have UC's whims, from a cost led deserving vs undeserving drive which is a blind alley (and let's not let off the Blair government in getting here). In widespread bad times, extra feeding will be a boon to many, not life and death, but it still might be fitting shoes or jumpers or the heating bill. The government may not wish to take this on themselves but they could put into the community schemes ad-hoc, many big society efforts get government backing. The attempted demonisation of MR has been plain ugly, politically imbecilic and, yes, scummy.
In thinking about recent episode where Labour MP hurled "scum" across the floor of the House of Common in response to government decision re: school meals, was reminded by similar scenes in H o C almost a century ago.
This was when Conservative government of that day made similar cuts to school meals. Which prompted the new Independent Labour Party MP James Maxon and other ILPers, mostly from Glasgow, to rise up in very vocal opposition.
So much so that Maxton caused an uproar in the House, and garnered prominent headlines, by calling the Tory front bench a pack of "murderers".
And when he refused to withdraw - despite urging from Labour leader Ramsey Macdonald, whom he was (at that time) supporting - Maxton refused, and was suspended for a period from parliament.
He never did withdraw that remark, or apologize for it. Thus it is interesting to note that a quarter-century later when he died, still a Glasgow ILP MP, after opposing declaration of war against both the Germans AND the Japanese, Winston Churchill called James Maxton "the greatest gentleman in the House of Commons".1 -
No but it means it could be closer than people expect.Chris said:
OMG. That means Trump is going to win again, doesn't it?Gallowgate said:ME2 now red on 538.
0 -
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https://twitter.com/ConflictsW/status/1320501273662283776?s=20Gallowgate said:Well it is 2020 🤷♂️
https://twitter.com/conflictsw/status/1320499325760397312?s=21
It was 100% at killing coronavirus, based on 0 tested coronavirus cases.....0 -
FrancisUrquhart said:
The easiest way to get a 100% record in killing the virus is to kill the host. Perhaps they're treating it with cyanide.0 -
If anyone needs something scary and diverting, I recommend The Haunting of Hill House, a very clever Netflix series, which is a reworking of the famous Shirley Jackson novel from the 1950s (one of the few truly unsettling ghost stories)
It is cheesy in parts but it gets significantly better. The Bent Neck Lady episode is whoah1 -
Well that will get the greens up in arms, an iron bar to the back of the head is both eco friendly and reuseable. Who knew the khmer rouge were closet greenswilliamglenn said:FrancisUrquhart said:
The easiest way to get a 100% record in killing the virus is to kill the host. Perhaps they're treating it with cyanide.0 -
The craziest of craziest. A cure a week before the election...but Trump has sanctions on them...Gallowgate said:Well it is 2020 🤷♂️
https://twitter.com/conflictsw/status/1320499325760397312?s=21
Don't believe it for a second, but that would really put the top hat on it all.
And wrap a big bow round it.0 -
RCP was more accurate than 538 in 2016 as was Trafalgar in the key rustbelt swing statesNigelb said:0 -
Bleach probably does the trick.Gallowgate said:Well it is 2020 🤷♂️
https://twitter.com/conflictsw/status/1320499325760397312?s=21
0 -
Sounds like they'll be ready for some big incompetency scandals once they are independent - it's a rite of passage for all nations.CarlottaVance said:0 -
"The Lottery" by SJ was scary enough for me.LadyG said:If anyone needs something scary and diverting, I recommend The Haunting of Hill House, a very clever Netflix series, which is a reworking of the famous Shirley Jackson novel from the 1950s (one of the few truly unsettling ghost stories)
It is cheesy in parts but it gets significantly better. The Bent Neck Lady episode is whoah0 -
It won't end. The argument will be why not in the first place, probably arguments over the amount, and disputes over what to do next. But it will dampen it down for a time if he does that, though perhaps piss off those who had to go out and defend it.FrancisUrquhart said:0 -
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Well and once you start U-Turning (after initially digging in), everybody knows they can keep pushing you. If you have messed up, you need to get on top of it quickly, say we made a mistake, thanks for alerting us to it and sort it....digging in, then u-turning, is the worst of both worlds.kle4 said:
It won't end. The argument will be why not in the first place, probably arguments over the amount, and disputes over what to do next. But it will dampen it down for a time if he does that, though perhaps piss off those who had to go out and defend it.FrancisUrquhart said:0 -
I'll confess to being a big pansy and say I find it hard to handle creepy and scary things. I put it down to seeing IT when I was 5. I was hugely uncomfortable when I saw Hereditary, apart from a scene where I burst out laughing at what was probably meant to be a horrifying moment.LadyG said:If anyone needs something scary and diverting, I recommend The Haunting of Hill House, a very clever Netflix series, which is a reworking of the famous Shirley Jackson novel from the 1950s (one of the few truly unsettling ghost stories)
It is cheesy in parts but it gets significantly better. The Bent Neck Lady episode is whoah0 -
Maduro is the Putinist left hand that the Trumpsky right hand knows (or is supposed to know) nothing about.dixiedean said:
The craziest of craziest. A cure a week before the election...but Trump has sanctions on them...Gallowgate said:Well it is 2020 🤷♂️
https://twitter.com/conflictsw/status/1320499325760397312?s=21
Don't believe it for a second, but that would really put the top hat on it all.
And wrap a big bow round it.1 -
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They might be wrong, but crowd size will have nothing to do with whether they are. Corbyn said the same thing.HYUFD said:0 -
When Trump loses I wonder becomes of the MAGA army?HYUFD said:0 -
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I think we should be very worried personally. I have heard a lot mock the americans for their right to bear arms. They say stuff like how will they stand up to the us army with their tanks and sophisticated weapons.FrancisUrquhart said:
When Trump loses I wonder becomes of the MAGA army?HYUFD said:
One word for that Afghanistan
tribesmen armed mostly ak47's and what other ordinance they could scrounge gave the russians first then the americans and allies a run for their money0
