North Carolina turnout in early 2020 votes is now 65% of total 2016 votes. 4.7m votes were cast in 2016, 3.1m have already been cast in 2020.
Of these votes, 40.5% are from registered Democrats, and 30% from registered Republicans, an absolute difference of 326,000.
The Republicans have an enormous amount of catching up to do and are running out of time to do it.
One thing to be careful of in NC is older voters registered Democrats but who vote Republicans.
In rural areas, which are 19pc of votes cast so far (or what I checked last earlier), the Democrats have a big lead by party registration. Given these tend to be Trump areas, and that the EV has skewed heavily to older voters, there is a good chance many of these are registered as Democrats but have voted for Trump.
Regardless, the Republicans have been cutting the democrat lead in party registration votes by c 2pc per day and it is now at 11pc. Souls to the polls will be less effective this year given CV.
I’m increasingly of the view the Republicans will hold NC both at the Senate and Presidential level
You are correct that in many parts of NC and other states (esp. rural areas) there are plenty of folks still registered as Democrats but voting (generally) for Republicans esp for federal office.
On other hand, polling (at least nationally) shows that one of Trumpsky & RNC's big problems this year is defection of many seniors, due mainly to COVID-19.
Rumour is that the special forces are being called in to deal with the tanker. Unconfirmed.
Meanwhile the Navy bomb disposal squad has been seen boarding the ferry to the island. By coincidence or otherwise.
Surely the Bomb squad don't usually deploy via Wightlink?
A bomb's threat is directly proportionate to the mundanity of the transport links to its location. Bomb on the Circle Line/77 bus route bad, bomb on Bond-villain-ish artificial island accessible only by gyrocopter, less so.
It is seriously worrying right across Europe just now
Tbf, this is us in two weeks unless the government gets a grip on self isolation and testing failures.
An honest question
Is anyone testing in Europe any better than the UK or Germany
Not particularly, I'd say that France, Spain, Netherlands and Belgium testing is worse than our system, Germany and Italy probably marginally better.
Ultimately every country suffers from the same issue of people not isolating after testing positive. Nations who have effectively defeated the virus have very good isolation measures (Australia, NZ) or people who are responsible and isolate properly without needing special measures (SK, Japan).
We seem to delight in attacking our own system which I understand is near a 400,000 a day capacity and is not far off Germany.
And of course the countries who have best dealt with this are all in the Southern Hemisphere and in New Zealand case 1500 miles from nearest land in Australia and comprises two islands with wide open spaces
The British response to Corona has much to be proud of, with only the government letting the side down.
For all the mistakes I do not think HMG have performed much worse than other governments to be fair
It is seriously worrying right across Europe just now
Tbf, this is us in two weeks unless the government gets a grip on self isolation and testing failures.
An honest question
Is anyone testing in Europe any better than the UK or Germany
Not particularly, I'd say that France, Spain, Netherlands and Belgium testing is worse than our system, Germany and Italy probably marginally better.
Ultimately every country suffers from the same issue of people not isolating after testing positive. Nations who have effectively defeated the virus have very good isolation measures (Australia, NZ) or people who are responsible and isolate properly without needing special measures (SK, Japan).
We seem to delight in attacking our own system which I understand is near a 400,000 a day capacity and is not far off Germany.
And of course the countries who have best dealt with this are all in the Southern Hemisphere and in New Zealand case 1500 miles from nearest land in Australia and comprises two islands with wide open spaces
The British response to Corona has much to be proud of, with only the government letting the side down.
For all the mistakes I do not think HMG have performed much worse than other governments to be fair
You need to get your eyes tested. On second thoughts don’t.
I think it will be tight. Currently I am thinking c 50-47/8 Biden on the popular vote but that Trump wins the EC. On what I have bet so far, I’m backing a range of anywhere from a narrow Biden win to Trump with a limit if around 330.
However, I’m increasingly confident Trump will win. Enthusiasm is high on both sides but the Democrats seem to be struggling to get Black turnout particularly enthused and I think Trump will pick up a few pp on the Hispanic vote. Also, I expect the pollsters to be proven wrong again in that they would have underweighted non-college educated white voters in their samples (I’m thinking they will go with 2016 as a guide to the % of the electorate but that these voters will turn out in much bigger numbers in 2020)
It is seriously worrying right across Europe just now
Tbf, this is us in two weeks unless the government gets a grip on self isolation and testing failures.
An honest question
Is anyone testing in Europe any better than the UK or Germany
Not particularly, I'd say that France, Spain, Netherlands and Belgium testing is worse than our system, Germany and Italy probably marginally better.
Ultimately every country suffers from the same issue of people not isolating after testing positive. Nations who have effectively defeated the virus have very good isolation measures (Australia, NZ) or people who are responsible and isolate properly without needing special measures (SK, Japan).
We seem to delight in attacking our own system which I understand is near a 400,000 a day capacity and is not far off Germany.
And of course the countries who have best dealt with this are all in the Southern Hemisphere and in New Zealand case 1500 miles from nearest land in Australia and comprises two islands with wide open spaces
The British response to Corona has much to be proud of, with only the government letting the side down.
Not really, it's been very disorganised and people have been proved to be irresponsible and not isolating after testing positive and the state has been left wanting in many areas. Any thoughts of exceptionalism should have been washed away by the virus response both from the state and the people.
For some reason, the Nigerian tanker has had several RNLI lifeboats sent out to it.
BBC says the military are being called in
With a tanker full of oil on the doorstep of some of our most sensitive and heavily populated beach areas, they would be raving mad not to.
The consequences of somebody opening the taps (metaphorically speaking) on that thing do not bear thinking about. It would make the Braer or even the Torrey Canyon look like a picnic.
It seems a weird place to try to hijack anything, under the noses of half a dozen highly professional armies and intellgence services. Off Somalia, yes, but off the Isle of Wight??
It is seriously worrying right across Europe just now
Tbf, this is us in two weeks unless the government gets a grip on self isolation and testing failures.
This is us in two weeks then.
I really can’t see how schools will be able to stay open under such circumstances. It’s already running rampant through them and if vulnerable teachers have to shield then the whole system will implode again.
Plus we’re already all completely worn out and the children are exploding under the restrictions even though so far we’ve been pretty lucky with the weather.
My son’s primary is fine, and all the children and teachers seem delighted to be back.
You seem desperate for the schools to close.
To be honest it is the same here with two of our grandchildren at primary and two at secondary
While of course they are on school half term, extended another week here in Wales, they have not had any interruption so far
It is seriously worrying right across Europe just now
Tbf, this is us in two weeks unless the government gets a grip on self isolation and testing failures.
An honest question
Is anyone testing in Europe any better than the UK or Germany
Not particularly, I'd say that France, Spain, Netherlands and Belgium testing is worse than our system, Germany and Italy probably marginally better.
Ultimately every country suffers from the same issue of people not isolating after testing positive. Nations who have effectively defeated the virus have very good isolation measures (Australia, NZ) or people who are responsible and isolate properly without needing special measures (SK, Japan).
We seem to delight in attacking our own system which I understand is near a 400,000 a day capacity and is not far off Germany.
And of course the countries who have best dealt with this are all in the Southern Hemisphere and in New Zealand case 1500 miles from nearest land in Australia and comprises two islands with wide open spaces
The British response to Corona has much to be proud of, with only the government letting the side down.
Not really, it's been very disorganised and people have been proved to be irresponsible and not isolating after testing positive and the state has been left wanting in many areas. Any thoughts of exceptionalism should have been washed away by the virus response both from the state and the people.
The NHS, academic and pharmaceutical contribution is world class.
North Carolina turnout in early 2020 votes is now 65% of total 2016 votes. 4.7m votes were cast in 2016, 3.1m have already been cast in 2020.
Of these votes, 40.5% are from registered Democrats, and 30% from registered Republicans, an absolute difference of 326,000.
The Republicans have an enormous amount of catching up to do and are running out of time to do it.
One thing to be careful of in NC is older voters registered Democrats but who vote Republicans.
In rural areas, which are 19pc of votes cast so far (or what I checked last earlier), the Democrats have a big lead by party registration. Given these tend to be Trump areas, and that the EV has skewed heavily to older voters, there is a good chance many of these are registered as Democrats but have voted for Trump.
Regardless, the Republicans have been cutting the democrat lead in party registration votes by c 2pc per day and it is now at 11pc. Souls to the polls will be less effective this year given CV.
I’m increasingly of the view the Republicans will hold NC both at the Senate and Presidential level
You are correct that in many parts of NC and other states (esp. rural areas) there are plenty of folks still registered as Democrats but voting (generally) for Republicans esp for federal office.
On other hand, polling (at least nationally) shows that one of Trumpsky & RNC's big problems this year is defection of many seniors, due mainly to COVID-19.
If there are shifts in older voters, I think it will be diverse in spread. I’m making a sweeping generalisation here but I can’t imagine older white voters in NC (or the South) are going to sympathetic to BLM or systemic racism and that has been a theme of the Biden campaign. So I think in NC it’s probably a negative for Biden.
It is seriously worrying right across Europe just now
Tbf, this is us in two weeks unless the government gets a grip on self isolation and testing failures.
An honest question
Is anyone testing in Europe any better than the UK or Germany
Not particularly, I'd say that France, Spain, Netherlands and Belgium testing is worse than our system, Germany and Italy probably marginally better.
Ultimately every country suffers from the same issue of people not isolating after testing positive. Nations who have effectively defeated the virus have very good isolation measures (Australia, NZ) or people who are responsible and isolate properly without needing special measures (SK, Japan).
We seem to delight in attacking our own system which I understand is near a 400,000 a day capacity and is not far off Germany.
And of course the countries who have best dealt with this are all in the Southern Hemisphere and in New Zealand case 1500 miles from nearest land in Australia and comprises two islands with wide open spaces
The testing numbers aren't as important as effectiveness. We could be testing fewer than half the number of people if we had faster turnaround times and proper contact tracing with local authorities in charge door knocking taking swabs and getting tests processed locally within 24h if taking the swab and then isolating people properly.
I am sure you are right but which countries in Europe, if any, are actually achieving that
For some reason, the Nigerian tanker has had several RNLI lifeboats sent out to it.
BBC says the military are being called in
With a tanker full of oil on the doorstep of some of our most sensitive and heavily populated beach areas, they would be raving mad not to.
The consequences of somebody opening the taps (metaphorically speaking) on that thing do not bear thinking about. It would make the Braer or even the Torrey Canyon look like a picnic.
It seems a weird place to try to hijack anything, under the noses of half a dozen highly professional armies and intellgence services. Off Somalia, yes, but off the Isle of Wight??
C4 news, latest Tory mp excuse: it's Labour's fault for timing this row which to make us look bad.
I heard Tim Loughton on the radio say that he was going to vote to reverse the decision as a tempoirary emergency measure but Labour were hypocrites because they hadn't done it whebn they were in power. Slightly overlooking the Covid crisis.
That said, I get that he needs to cover his flank if he's going to revolt.
It is seriously worrying right across Europe just now
Tbf, this is us in two weeks unless the government gets a grip on self isolation and testing failures.
An honest question
Is anyone testing in Europe any better than the UK or Germany
Not particularly, I'd say that France, Spain, Netherlands and Belgium testing is worse than our system, Germany and Italy probably marginally better.
Ultimately every country suffers from the same issue of people not isolating after testing positive. Nations who have effectively defeated the virus have very good isolation measures (Australia, NZ) or people who are responsible and isolate properly without needing special measures (SK, Japan).
We seem to delight in attacking our own system which I understand is near a 400,000 a day capacity and is not far off Germany.
And of course the countries who have best dealt with this are all in the Southern Hemisphere and in New Zealand case 1500 miles from nearest land in Australia and comprises two islands with wide open spaces
The British response to Corona has much to be proud of, with only the government letting the side down.
Not really, it's been very disorganised and people have been proved to be irresponsible and not isolating after testing positive and the state has been left wanting in many areas. Any thoughts of exceptionalism should have been washed away by the virus response both from the state and the people.
The NHS, academic and pharmaceutical contribution is world class.
Yes, that has been, no doubt. Though on non virus stuff the NHS is overseeing a disaster in healthcare with millions of missed cancer diagnoses, GPs refusing to see patients and people afraid of going to hospital appointments.
For some reason, the Nigerian tanker has had several RNLI lifeboats sent out to it.
BBC says the military are being called in
With a tanker full of oil on the doorstep of some of our most sensitive and heavily populated beach areas, they would be raving mad not to.
The consequences of somebody opening the taps (metaphorically speaking) on that thing do not bear thinking about. It would make the Braer or even the Torrey Canyon look like a picnic.
It seems a weird place to try to hijack anything, under the noses of half a dozen highly professional armies and intellgence services. Off Somalia, yes, but off the Isle of Wight??
Story seems to be a load of Nigerian stowaways, which the crew knew were there for some time, as the ship approached the UK the crew secured the bridge area as a precaution, after that, not clear, but by the light and noise out there something is going down. First time I have seen flashing blue lights out to sea
It is seriously worrying right across Europe just now
Tbf, this is us in two weeks unless the government gets a grip on self isolation and testing failures.
An honest question
Is anyone testing in Europe any better than the UK or Germany
Not particularly, I'd say that France, Spain, Netherlands and Belgium testing is worse than our system, Germany and Italy probably marginally better.
Ultimately every country suffers from the same issue of people not isolating after testing positive. Nations who have effectively defeated the virus have very good isolation measures (Australia, NZ) or people who are responsible and isolate properly without needing special measures (SK, Japan).
We seem to delight in attacking our own system which I understand is near a 400,000 a day capacity and is not far off Germany.
And of course the countries who have best dealt with this are all in the Southern Hemisphere and in New Zealand case 1500 miles from nearest land in Australia and comprises two islands with wide open spaces
The British response to Corona has much to be proud of, with only the government letting the side down.
Not really, it's been very disorganised and people have been proved to be irresponsible and not isolating after testing positive and the state has been left wanting in many areas. Any thoughts of exceptionalism should have been washed away by the virus response both from the state and the people.
The NHS, academic and pharmaceutical contribution is world class.
The NHS frontline contribution is world class.....the back end stuff has been frankly a huge steaming dung pile
It is seriously worrying right across Europe just now
Tbf, this is us in two weeks unless the government gets a grip on self isolation and testing failures.
This is us in two weeks then.
I really can’t see how schools will be able to stay open under such circumstances. It’s already running rampant through them and if vulnerable teachers have to shield then the whole system will implode again.
Plus we’re already all completely worn out and the children are exploding under the restrictions even though so far we’ve been pretty lucky with the weather.
My son’s primary is fine, and all the children and teachers seem delighted to be back.
You seem desperate for the schools to close.
Primary and secondary schools are completely different kettles of fish.
It is seriously worrying right across Europe just now
Tbf, this is us in two weeks unless the government gets a grip on self isolation and testing failures.
An honest question
Is anyone testing in Europe any better than the UK or Germany
Not particularly, I'd say that France, Spain, Netherlands and Belgium testing is worse than our system, Germany and Italy probably marginally better.
Ultimately every country suffers from the same issue of people not isolating after testing positive. Nations who have effectively defeated the virus have very good isolation measures (Australia, NZ) or people who are responsible and isolate properly without needing special measures (SK, Japan).
We seem to delight in attacking our own system which I understand is near a 400,000 a day capacity and is not far off Germany.
And of course the countries who have best dealt with this are all in the Southern Hemisphere and in New Zealand case 1500 miles from nearest land in Australia and comprises two islands with wide open spaces
The British response to Corona has much to be proud of, with only the government letting the side down.
Not really, it's been very disorganised and people have been proved to be irresponsible and not isolating after testing positive and the state has been left wanting in many areas. Any thoughts of exceptionalism should have been washed away by the virus response both from the state and the people.
The NHS, academic and pharmaceutical contribution is world class.
Yes, that has been, no doubt. Though on non virus stuff the NHS is overseeing a disaster in healthcare with millions of missed cancer diagnoses, GPs refusing to see patients and people afraid of going to hospital appointments.
In the endless stream of Boris, Dido and Serco mishaps it’s important to remember that elsewhere there is much to celebrate and not to take for granted.
It is seriously worrying right across Europe just now
Tbf, this is us in two weeks unless the government gets a grip on self isolation and testing failures.
An honest question
Is anyone testing in Europe any better than the UK or Germany
Not particularly, I'd say that France, Spain, Netherlands and Belgium testing is worse than our system, Germany and Italy probably marginally better.
Ultimately every country suffers from the same issue of people not isolating after testing positive. Nations who have effectively defeated the virus have very good isolation measures (Australia, NZ) or people who are responsible and isolate properly without needing special measures (SK, Japan).
We seem to delight in attacking our own system which I understand is near a 400,000 a day capacity and is not far off Germany.
And of course the countries who have best dealt with this are all in the Southern Hemisphere and in New Zealand case 1500 miles from nearest land in Australia and comprises two islands with wide open spaces
The British response to Corona has much to be proud of, with only the government letting the side down.
Not really, it's been very disorganised and people have been proved to be irresponsible and not isolating after testing positive and the state has been left wanting in many areas. Any thoughts of exceptionalism should have been washed away by the virus response both from the state and the people.
The NHS, academic and pharmaceutical contribution is world class.
Lots of questions over the academic response over this, especially early on. Many so called experts not leveraging standard modern tools. Much that everybody laughed at the use of Excel for of the testing data, we saw with the likes of Ferguson model is was a similar shit show of coding / obselete programming language and paradigms.
We are still seeing it now with the model for how effective a circuit breaker might be providing nonsensical results.
North Carolina turnout in early 2020 votes is now 65% of total 2016 votes. 4.7m votes were cast in 2016, 3.1m have already been cast in 2020.
Of these votes, 40.5% are from registered Democrats, and 30% from registered Republicans, an absolute difference of 326,000.
The Republicans have an enormous amount of catching up to do and are running out of time to do it.
One thing to be careful of in NC is older voters registered Democrats but who vote Republicans.
In rural areas, which are 19pc of votes cast so far (or what I checked last earlier), the Democrats have a big lead by party registration. Given these tend to be Trump areas, and that the EV has skewed heavily to older voters, there is a good chance many of these are registered as Democrats but have voted for Trump.
Regardless, the Republicans have been cutting the democrat lead in party registration votes by c 2pc per day and it is now at 11pc. Souls to the polls will be less effective this year given CV.
I’m increasingly of the view the Republicans will hold NC both at the Senate and Presidential level
You are correct that in many parts of NC and other states (esp. rural areas) there are plenty of folks still registered as Democrats but voting (generally) for Republicans esp for federal office.
On other hand, polling (at least nationally) shows that one of Trumpsky & RNC's big problems this year is defection of many seniors, due mainly to COVID-19.
If there are shifts in older voters, I think it will be diverse in spread. I’m making a sweeping generalisation here but I can’t imagine older white voters in NC (or the South) are going to sympathetic to BLM or systemic racism and that has been a theme of the Biden campaign. So I think in NC it’s probably a negative for Biden.
Don't think I agree with you re: impact of BLM on Southern White geezers.
Partly because Biden-Harris have really NOT stressed this, because Trumpsky has muddied his own waters here by his way-over-the-top AND overtly racist response.
But mostly because they are concerned more (I think) with COVID now AND the trajectory of the economy in the not-so-distant future.
It is seriously worrying right across Europe just now
Tbf, this is us in two weeks unless the government gets a grip on self isolation and testing failures.
An honest question
Is anyone testing in Europe any better than the UK or Germany
Not particularly, I'd say that France, Spain, Netherlands and Belgium testing is worse than our system, Germany and Italy probably marginally better.
Ultimately every country suffers from the same issue of people not isolating after testing positive. Nations who have effectively defeated the virus have very good isolation measures (Australia, NZ) or people who are responsible and isolate properly without needing special measures (SK, Japan).
We seem to delight in attacking our own system which I understand is near a 400,000 a day capacity and is not far off Germany.
And of course the countries who have best dealt with this are all in the Southern Hemisphere and in New Zealand case 1500 miles from nearest land in Australia and comprises two islands with wide open spaces
The British response to Corona has much to be proud of, with only the government letting the side down.
For all the mistakes I do not think HMG have performed much worse than other governments to be fair
Clearly you have not been paying any attention at all.
It is seriously worrying right across Europe just now
Tbf, this is us in two weeks unless the government gets a grip on self isolation and testing failures.
An honest question
Is anyone testing in Europe any better than the UK or Germany
Not particularly, I'd say that France, Spain, Netherlands and Belgium testing is worse than our system, Germany and Italy probably marginally better.
Ultimately every country suffers from the same issue of people not isolating after testing positive. Nations who have effectively defeated the virus have very good isolation measures (Australia, NZ) or people who are responsible and isolate properly without needing special measures (SK, Japan).
We seem to delight in attacking our own system which I understand is near a 400,000 a day capacity and is not far off Germany.
And of course the countries who have best dealt with this are all in the Southern Hemisphere and in New Zealand case 1500 miles from nearest land in Australia and comprises two islands with wide open spaces
The British response to Corona has much to be proud of, with only the government letting the side down.
For all the mistakes I do not think HMG have performed much worse than other governments to be fair
You need to get your eyes tested. On second thoughts don’t.
I have my eyes tested every year as at my age I need to be sure I can drive safely
However I do not expect you to be independent in your assessment as you have your own political views
It is seriously worrying right across Europe just now
Tbf, this is us in two weeks unless the government gets a grip on self isolation and testing failures.
This is us in two weeks then.
I really can’t see how schools will be able to stay open under such circumstances. It’s already running rampant through them and if vulnerable teachers have to shield then the whole system will implode again.
Plus we’re already all completely worn out and the children are exploding under the restrictions even though so far we’ve been pretty lucky with the weather.
My son’s primary is fine, and all the children and teachers seem delighted to be back.
You seem desperate for the schools to close.
Listen to me, Mr Pompous Stuck Up Last Boy Scout or whatever you’re calling yourself today, because I won’t repeat this. If you were literate and had read my earlier comments, you would know I opposed both the shutting of schools and the cancelling of exams. I felt both calls were made too soon, and were both damaging and unnecessary.
But that was then, and this is now.
Since I went back in September I have been walking far more than normal carrying heavy loads and I am having severe problems with my legs and back as a result. I am trying to teach children forced to sit in one seat all day because if they move from it at all it buggers up the Covid strategy. I am ordered to stand in a box that somehow magically insulates me from this virus even though when in it I am less than 75 cm from children who then test positive for Covid. I am teaching in unheated classrooms and forced to keep windows open because some drug addled moron in the civil service thinks that will magically stop the virus being transmitted among children who are packed like sardines.
I have taken three days off sick in my life. All have been since the start of Covid.
The sick list last week was skyrocketing. Staff and children. Everyone is strained, and everyone is exhausted. I am in addition to dealing with my own physical problems having to provide extensive cover for colleagues. One more going off and we would have been in big trouble. In fact, we were already at panic stations on Thursday in case we couldn’t open Friday. And it’s not just Covid. Exhaustion and muscular problems account for around half.
And my reward, when I say this isn’t sustainable for the the not wholly ridiculous reason that it isn’t, is to be sneered at by somebody who would clearly make Dominic Cummings look intelligent, sophisticated and knowledgeable, on the basis of anecdotal evidence derived from limited experience. Do you really think they’re going to say how much they hate the restrictions and they wish you and your child would get stuffed?
I don’t want schools to shut. I teach. I enjoy teaching and I am good at it. But equally this cannot go on and if we have skyrocketing infection rates whatever those drug addled fellow low lifes of yours in the Department for Education thinks, we will have to shut schools down.
So my answer to your dishonest personal attack is - fuck off. Take your nastiness and condescension home and I hope it chokes you.
It is seriously worrying right across Europe just now
Tbf, this is us in two weeks unless the government gets a grip on self isolation and testing failures.
An honest question
Is anyone testing in Europe any better than the UK or Germany
Not particularly, I'd say that France, Spain, Netherlands and Belgium testing is worse than our system, Germany and Italy probably marginally better.
Ultimately every country suffers from the same issue of people not isolating after testing positive. Nations who have effectively defeated the virus have very good isolation measures (Australia, NZ) or people who are responsible and isolate properly without needing special measures (SK, Japan).
We seem to delight in attacking our own system which I understand is near a 400,000 a day capacity and is not far off Germany.
And of course the countries who have best dealt with this are all in the Southern Hemisphere and in New Zealand case 1500 miles from nearest land in Australia and comprises two islands with wide open spaces
The testing numbers aren't as important as effectiveness. We could be testing fewer than half the number of people if we had faster turnaround times and proper contact tracing with local authorities in charge door knocking taking swabs and getting tests processed locally within 24h if taking the swab and then isolating people properly.
I am sure you are right but which countries in Europe, if any, are actually achieving that
None, but I don't see why that's really relevant. Just because they aren't doing it properly it doesn't mean we have to follow and not do it properly. We should be aiming for better than merely as crap as everyone else.
It is seriously worrying right across Europe just now
Tbf, this is us in two weeks unless the government gets a grip on self isolation and testing failures.
An honest question
Is anyone testing in Europe any better than the UK or Germany
Not particularly, I'd say that France, Spain, Netherlands and Belgium testing is worse than our system, Germany and Italy probably marginally better.
Ultimately every country suffers from the same issue of people not isolating after testing positive. Nations who have effectively defeated the virus have very good isolation measures (Australia, NZ) or people who are responsible and isolate properly without needing special measures (SK, Japan).
We seem to delight in attacking our own system which I understand is near a 400,000 a day capacity and is not far off Germany.
And of course the countries who have best dealt with this are all in the Southern Hemisphere and in New Zealand case 1500 miles from nearest land in Australia and comprises two islands with wide open spaces
The British response to Corona has much to be proud of, with only the government letting the side down.
Not really, it's been very disorganised and people have been proved to be irresponsible and not isolating after testing positive and the state has been left wanting in many areas. Any thoughts of exceptionalism should have been washed away by the virus response both from the state and the people.
The NHS, academic and pharmaceutical contribution is world class.
Yes, that has been, no doubt. Though on non virus stuff the NHS is overseeing a disaster in healthcare with millions of missed cancer diagnoses, GPs refusing to see patients and people afraid of going to hospital appointments.
In the endless stream of Boris, Dido and Serco mishaps it’s important to remember that elsewhere there is much to celebrate and not to take for granted.
I also think academia hasn't covered itself in glory, the base model of viral replication here is still getting it wrong.
North Carolina turnout in early 2020 votes is now 65% of total 2016 votes. 4.7m votes were cast in 2016, 3.1m have already been cast in 2020.
Of these votes, 40.5% are from registered Democrats, and 30% from registered Republicans, an absolute difference of 326,000.
The Republicans have an enormous amount of catching up to do and are running out of time to do it.
One thing to be careful of in NC is older voters registered Democrats but who vote Republicans.
In rural areas, which are 19pc of votes cast so far (or what I checked last earlier), the Democrats have a big lead by party registration. Given these tend to be Trump areas, and that the EV has skewed heavily to older voters, there is a good chance many of these are registered as Democrats but have voted for Trump.
Regardless, the Republicans have been cutting the democrat lead in party registration votes by c 2pc per day and it is now at 11pc. Souls to the polls will be less effective this year given CV.
I’m increasingly of the view the Republicans will hold NC both at the Senate and Presidential level
You are correct that in many parts of NC and other states (esp. rural areas) there are plenty of folks still registered as Democrats but voting (generally) for Republicans esp for federal office.
On other hand, polling (at least nationally) shows that one of Trumpsky & RNC's big problems this year is defection of many seniors, due mainly to COVID-19.
If there are shifts in older voters, I think it will be diverse in spread. I’m making a sweeping generalisation here but I can’t imagine older white voters in NC (or the South) are going to sympathetic to BLM or systemic racism and that has been a theme of the Biden campaign. So I think in NC it’s probably a negative for Biden.
It probably didn't go down too well with with older black voters either, who are just as conservative as their white counterparts.
C4 news, latest Tory mp excuse: it's Labour's fault for timing this row which to make us look bad.
I heard Tim Loughton on the radio say that he was going to vote to reverse the decision as a tempoirary emergency measure but Labour were hypocrites because they hadn't done it whebn they were in power. Slightly overlooking the Covid crisis.
That said, I get that he needs to cover his flank if he's going to revolt.
I hope Boris sees sense otherwise his mps must
5 already have plus 22 abstained, so it does look like a crushing defeat for no 10 if they continue this self inflicted ill thought out decision
It is seriously worrying right across Europe just now
Tbf, this is us in two weeks unless the government gets a grip on self isolation and testing failures.
An honest question
Is anyone testing in Europe any better than the UK or Germany
Not particularly, I'd say that France, Spain, Netherlands and Belgium testing is worse than our system, Germany and Italy probably marginally better.
Ultimately every country suffers from the same issue of people not isolating after testing positive. Nations who have effectively defeated the virus have very good isolation measures (Australia, NZ) or people who are responsible and isolate properly without needing special measures (SK, Japan).
We seem to delight in attacking our own system which I understand is near a 400,000 a day capacity and is not far off Germany.
And of course the countries who have best dealt with this are all in the Southern Hemisphere and in New Zealand case 1500 miles from nearest land in Australia and comprises two islands with wide open spaces
The British response to Corona has much to be proud of, with only the government letting the side down.
For all the mistakes I do not think HMG have performed much worse than other governments to be fair
You need to get your eyes tested. On second thoughts don’t.
I have my eyes tested every year as at my age I need to be sure I can drive safely
However I do not expect you to be independent in your assessment as you have your own political views
That old chestnut. Whilst we can’t meet you exquisite impartiality standards BigG 😂, even the government says it hasn’t kept its promises.
Glad you get your eyes tested, the Barnard Castle branch of Specsavers no doubt..
It is seriously worrying right across Europe just now
Tbf, this is us in two weeks unless the government gets a grip on self isolation and testing failures.
An honest question
Is anyone testing in Europe any better than the UK or Germany
Not particularly, I'd say that France, Spain, Netherlands and Belgium testing is worse than our system, Germany and Italy probably marginally better.
Ultimately every country suffers from the same issue of people not isolating after testing positive. Nations who have effectively defeated the virus have very good isolation measures (Australia, NZ) or people who are responsible and isolate properly without needing special measures (SK, Japan).
We seem to delight in attacking our own system which I understand is near a 400,000 a day capacity and is not far off Germany.
And of course the countries who have best dealt with this are all in the Southern Hemisphere and in New Zealand case 1500 miles from nearest land in Australia and comprises two islands with wide open spaces
The British response to Corona has much to be proud of, with only the government letting the side down.
Not really, it's been very disorganised and people have been proved to be irresponsible and not isolating after testing positive and the state has been left wanting in many areas. Any thoughts of exceptionalism should have been washed away by the virus response both from the state and the people.
The NHS, academic and pharmaceutical contribution is world class.
Yes, that has been, no doubt. Though on non virus stuff the NHS is overseeing a disaster in healthcare with millions of missed cancer diagnoses, GPs refusing to see patients and people afraid of going to hospital appointments.
In the endless stream of Boris, Dido and Serco mishaps it’s important to remember that elsewhere there is much to celebrate and not to take for granted.
Lets not forget how we got Dido / Serco in the first place. PHE refused to buy the German PCR, demanding to produce our own, then after that wasted month, insisted all testing be conducted only by PHE labs...they were then unable to scale up testing much at all for yet another month, and it also led to Witty / Valance telling the government we could only test hospital admissions. At the sane time, Witty / Valance, were convinced antibody tests were really what we needed.
Only when Hancock did his nut and got the man from Delmonte was capacity expanded, via copying the German approach of using public, private and academic labs.
It is seriously worrying right across Europe just now
Tbf, this is us in two weeks unless the government gets a grip on self isolation and testing failures.
An honest question
Is anyone testing in Europe any better than the UK or Germany
Not particularly, I'd say that France, Spain, Netherlands and Belgium testing is worse than our system, Germany and Italy probably marginally better.
Ultimately every country suffers from the same issue of people not isolating after testing positive. Nations who have effectively defeated the virus have very good isolation measures (Australia, NZ) or people who are responsible and isolate properly without needing special measures (SK, Japan).
We seem to delight in attacking our own system which I understand is near a 400,000 a day capacity and is not far off Germany.
And of course the countries who have best dealt with this are all in the Southern Hemisphere and in New Zealand case 1500 miles from nearest land in Australia and comprises two islands with wide open spaces
The British response to Corona has much to be proud of, with only the government letting the side down.
Not really, it's been very disorganised and people have been proved to be irresponsible and not isolating after testing positive and the state has been left wanting in many areas. Any thoughts of exceptionalism should have been washed away by the virus response both from the state and the people.
The NHS, academic and pharmaceutical contribution is world class.
Yes, that has been, no doubt. Though on non virus stuff the NHS is overseeing a disaster in healthcare with millions of missed cancer diagnoses, GPs refusing to see patients and people afraid of going to hospital appointments.
In the endless stream of Boris, Dido and Serco mishaps it’s important to remember that elsewhere there is much to celebrate and not to take for granted.
I also think academia hasn't covered itself in glory, the base model of viral replication here is still getting it wrong.
All models are wrong. The question is whether they are useful. The virus was clearly out of control when the scientists put the brakes on back in March. The model was instrumental in getting government to wake up. As such it served an important purpose.
North Carolina turnout in early 2020 votes is now 65% of total 2016 votes. 4.7m votes were cast in 2016, 3.1m have already been cast in 2020.
Of these votes, 40.5% are from registered Democrats, and 30% from registered Republicans, an absolute difference of 326,000.
The Republicans have an enormous amount of catching up to do and are running out of time to do it.
One thing to be careful of in NC is older voters registered Democrats but who vote Republicans.
In rural areas, which are 19pc of votes cast so far (or what I checked last earlier), the Democrats have a big lead by party registration. Given these tend to be Trump areas, and that the EV has skewed heavily to older voters, there is a good chance many of these are registered as Democrats but have voted for Trump.
Regardless, the Republicans have been cutting the democrat lead in party registration votes by c 2pc per day and it is now at 11pc. Souls to the polls will be less effective this year given CV.
I’m increasingly of the view the Republicans will hold NC both at the Senate and Presidential level
Based on party registration, registered Democrats won NC by 78k in 2016 in early voting, with a swing back to the Republicans on election day. But the Democrats are already 326k ahead this year. They were 328k ahead yesterday so the lead seems pretty stable, with time running out.
One thing to be careful of is assuming that this election will pan out according to the same pattern as 2016, when there is evidence of massive change staring you in the face.
Another change is Biden's tendency to poll pretty well amongst seniors in 2020, in contrast to Clinton in 2016, something that's been well analysed when considering why he is polling so well in Florida. Maybe as vulnerable people they prefer a candidate who doesn't consider them expendible. Assuming that there will be large swathes of registered Democratic seniors defecting to Trump in 2020 seems a bit fanciful in the circumstances.
The tanker now turned south east, the lifeboats still in pursuit, at least two maybe three boats with flashing blue lights and three helicopters overhead
It is seriously worrying right across Europe just now
Tbf, this is us in two weeks unless the government gets a grip on self isolation and testing failures.
An honest question
Is anyone testing in Europe any better than the UK or Germany
Not particularly, I'd say that France, Spain, Netherlands and Belgium testing is worse than our system, Germany and Italy probably marginally better.
Ultimately every country suffers from the same issue of people not isolating after testing positive. Nations who have effectively defeated the virus have very good isolation measures (Australia, NZ) or people who are responsible and isolate properly without needing special measures (SK, Japan).
We seem to delight in attacking our own system which I understand is near a 400,000 a day capacity and is not far off Germany.
And of course the countries who have best dealt with this are all in the Southern Hemisphere and in New Zealand case 1500 miles from nearest land in Australia and comprises two islands with wide open spaces
The British response to Corona has much to be proud of, with only the government letting the side down.
For all the mistakes I do not think HMG have performed much worse than other governments to be fair
Well, they have.
The point is it doesn’t seem ultimately to have made a vast amount of difference.
That's a brilliantly designed tweet by Marcus Rashford there, which has been written to appeal to both the left and the right. And it does so very well indeed.
Yes, he might have some people advising him on this but I can easily believe he's savvy enough to work it out for himself and, even if not, shrewd enough to listen to those who are.
C4 news, latest Tory mp excuse: it's Labour's fault for timing this row which to make us look bad.
I heard Tim Loughton on the radio say that he was going to vote to reverse the decision as a tempoirary emergency measure but Labour were hypocrites because they hadn't done it whebn they were in power. Slightly overlooking the Covid crisis.
That said, I get that he needs to cover his flank if he's going to revolt.
I hope Boris sees sense otherwise his mps must
5 already have plus 22 abstained, so it does look like a crushing defeat for no 10 if they continue this self inflicted ill thought out decision
and when he fails to make a difference will they all apologise to the nation and put their hands into their pockets to recompense the tax payers for wasting their money? For once no 10 like a stopped clock is correct
It is seriously worrying right across Europe just now
Tbf, this is us in two weeks unless the government gets a grip on self isolation and testing failures.
An honest question
Is anyone testing in Europe any better than the UK or Germany
Not particularly, I'd say that France, Spain, Netherlands and Belgium testing is worse than our system, Germany and Italy probably marginally better.
Ultimately every country suffers from the same issue of people not isolating after testing positive. Nations who have effectively defeated the virus have very good isolation measures (Australia, NZ) or people who are responsible and isolate properly without needing special measures (SK, Japan).
We seem to delight in attacking our own system which I understand is near a 400,000 a day capacity and is not far off Germany.
And of course the countries who have best dealt with this are all in the Southern Hemisphere and in New Zealand case 1500 miles from nearest land in Australia and comprises two islands with wide open spaces
The British response to Corona has much to be proud of, with only the government letting the side down.
For all the mistakes I do not think HMG have performed much worse than other governments to be fair
Clearly you have not been paying any attention at all.
Why would you say that when it is clear mistakes have been made but nobody in Europe, with the possible exception of Germany, have done any better
It is seriously worrying right across Europe just now
Tbf, this is us in two weeks unless the government gets a grip on self isolation and testing failures.
An honest question
Is anyone testing in Europe any better than the UK or Germany
Not particularly, I'd say that France, Spain, Netherlands and Belgium testing is worse than our system, Germany and Italy probably marginally better.
Ultimately every country suffers from the same issue of people not isolating after testing positive. Nations who have effectively defeated the virus have very good isolation measures (Australia, NZ) or people who are responsible and isolate properly without needing special measures (SK, Japan).
We seem to delight in attacking our own system which I understand is near a 400,000 a day capacity and is not far off Germany.
And of course the countries who have best dealt with this are all in the Southern Hemisphere and in New Zealand case 1500 miles from nearest land in Australia and comprises two islands with wide open spaces
The British response to Corona has much to be proud of, with only the government letting the side down.
Not really, it's been very disorganised and people have been proved to be irresponsible and not isolating after testing positive and the state has been left wanting in many areas. Any thoughts of exceptionalism should have been washed away by the virus response both from the state and the people.
The NHS, academic and pharmaceutical contribution is world class.
Yes, that has been, no doubt. Though on non virus stuff the NHS is overseeing a disaster in healthcare with millions of missed cancer diagnoses, GPs refusing to see patients and people afraid of going to hospital appointments.
In the endless stream of Boris, Dido and Serco mishaps it’s important to remember that elsewhere there is much to celebrate and not to take for granted.
I also think academia hasn't covered itself in glory, the base model of viral replication here is still getting it wrong.
All models are wrong. The question is whether they are useful. The virus was clearly out of control when the scientists put the brakes on back in March. The model was instrumental in getting government to wake up. As such it served an important purpose.
The circuit breaker models presented to SAGE predicts it will save somewhere between low 1000 and 107k lives...it is not useful at all.
It is seriously worrying right across Europe just now
Tbf, this is us in two weeks unless the government gets a grip on self isolation and testing failures.
An honest question
Is anyone testing in Europe any better than the UK or Germany
Not particularly, I'd say that France, Spain, Netherlands and Belgium testing is worse than our system, Germany and Italy probably marginally better.
Ultimately every country suffers from the same issue of people not isolating after testing positive. Nations who have effectively defeated the virus have very good isolation measures (Australia, NZ) or people who are responsible and isolate properly without needing special measures (SK, Japan).
We seem to delight in attacking our own system which I understand is near a 400,000 a day capacity and is not far off Germany.
And of course the countries who have best dealt with this are all in the Southern Hemisphere and in New Zealand case 1500 miles from nearest land in Australia and comprises two islands with wide open spaces
The British response to Corona has much to be proud of, with only the government letting the side down.
Not really, it's been very disorganised and people have been proved to be irresponsible and not isolating after testing positive and the state has been left wanting in many areas. Any thoughts of exceptionalism should have been washed away by the virus response both from the state and the people.
The NHS, academic and pharmaceutical contribution is world class.
Yes, that has been, no doubt. Though on non virus stuff the NHS is overseeing a disaster in healthcare with millions of missed cancer diagnoses, GPs refusing to see patients and people afraid of going to hospital appointments.
In the endless stream of Boris, Dido and Serco mishaps it’s important to remember that elsewhere there is much to celebrate and not to take for granted.
Lets not forget how we got Dido / Serco in the first place. PHE refused to buy the German PCR, demanding to produce our own, then after that wasted month, insisted all testing be conducted only by PHE labs...they were then unable to scale up testing much at all for yet another month, and it also led to Witty / Valance telling the government we could only test hospital admissions. At the sane time, Witty / Valance, were convinced antibody tests were really what we needed.
Only when Hancock did his nut and got the man from Delmonte was capacity expanded, via copying the German approach of using public, private and academic labs.
The tanker now turned south east, the lifeboats still in pursuit, at least two maybe three boats with flashing blue lights and three helicopters overhead
All sounds very weird. The SBS is only a short way off - why haven’t they just been dropped onto the tanker to sort matters out?
It is seriously worrying right across Europe just now
Tbf, this is us in two weeks unless the government gets a grip on self isolation and testing failures.
An honest question
Is anyone testing in Europe any better than the UK or Germany
Not particularly, I'd say that France, Spain, Netherlands and Belgium testing is worse than our system, Germany and Italy probably marginally better.
Ultimately every country suffers from the same issue of people not isolating after testing positive. Nations who have effectively defeated the virus have very good isolation measures (Australia, NZ) or people who are responsible and isolate properly without needing special measures (SK, Japan).
We seem to delight in attacking our own system which I understand is near a 400,000 a day capacity and is not far off Germany.
And of course the countries who have best dealt with this are all in the Southern Hemisphere and in New Zealand case 1500 miles from nearest land in Australia and comprises two islands with wide open spaces
The British response to Corona has much to be proud of, with only the government letting the side down.
For all the mistakes I do not think HMG have performed much worse than other governments to be fair
Clearly you have not been paying any attention at all.
Why would you say that when it is clear mistakes have been made but nobody in Europe, with the possible exception of Germany, have done any better
On the contrary, we’re right down there at the bottom, in Europe at least. The virus is affecting everywhere, now, but the figures speak for themselves. Our first wave was almost the worst, too early to judge the second wave.
It is seriously worrying right across Europe just now
Tbf, this is us in two weeks unless the government gets a grip on self isolation and testing failures.
An honest question
Is anyone testing in Europe any better than the UK or Germany
Not particularly, I'd say that France, Spain, Netherlands and Belgium testing is worse than our system, Germany and Italy probably marginally better.
Ultimately every country suffers from the same issue of people not isolating after testing positive. Nations who have effectively defeated the virus have very good isolation measures (Australia, NZ) or people who are responsible and isolate properly without needing special measures (SK, Japan).
We seem to delight in attacking our own system which I understand is near a 400,000 a day capacity and is not far off Germany.
And of course the countries who have best dealt with this are all in the Southern Hemisphere and in New Zealand case 1500 miles from nearest land in Australia and comprises two islands with wide open spaces
The British response to Corona has much to be proud of, with only the government letting the side down.
Not really, it's been very disorganised and people have been proved to be irresponsible and not isolating after testing positive and the state has been left wanting in many areas. Any thoughts of exceptionalism should have been washed away by the virus response both from the state and the people.
The NHS, academic and pharmaceutical contribution is world class.
Yes, that has been, no doubt. Though on non virus stuff the NHS is overseeing a disaster in healthcare with millions of missed cancer diagnoses, GPs refusing to see patients and people afraid of going to hospital appointments.
In the endless stream of Boris, Dido and Serco mishaps it’s important to remember that elsewhere there is much to celebrate and not to take for granted.
Lets not forget how we got Dido / Serco in the first place. PHE refused to buy the German PCR, demanding to produce our own, then after that wasted month, insisted all testing be conducted only by PHE labs...they were then unable to scale up testing much at all for yet another month, and it also led to Witty / Valance telling the government we could only test hospital admissions. At the sane time, Witty / Valance, were convinced antibody tests were really what we needed.
Only when Hancock did his nut and got the man from Delmonte was capacity expanded, via copying the German approach of using public, private and academic labs.
Context. You’ll be on Twitter next.
What do mean? That is the back story...now replacing the Deloitte consultants who successfully scaled the capacity with a totally unqualified crony and the system then becoming worse, that is all on Hancock.
The trace aspect has always been oversold. I said way back, that it is just impossible to do this manually. Even at very low numbers you can't keep up.
The only people who successfully contact tracd are the South Koreans. They have both low levels and an automated system they spent 5 years building after SARS.
It is seriously worrying right across Europe just now
Tbf, this is us in two weeks unless the government gets a grip on self isolation and testing failures.
An honest question
Is anyone testing in Europe any better than the UK or Germany
Not particularly, I'd say that France, Spain, Netherlands and Belgium testing is worse than our system, Germany and Italy probably marginally better.
Ultimately every country suffers from the same issue of people not isolating after testing positive. Nations who have effectively defeated the virus have very good isolation measures (Australia, NZ) or people who are responsible and isolate properly without needing special measures (SK, Japan).
We seem to delight in attacking our own system which I understand is near a 400,000 a day capacity and is not far off Germany.
And of course the countries who have best dealt with this are all in the Southern Hemisphere and in New Zealand case 1500 miles from nearest land in Australia and comprises two islands with wide open spaces
The British response to Corona has much to be proud of, with only the government letting the side down.
Not really, it's been very disorganised and people have been proved to be irresponsible and not isolating after testing positive and the state has been left wanting in many areas. Any thoughts of exceptionalism should have been washed away by the virus response both from the state and the people.
The NHS, academic and pharmaceutical contribution is world class.
Yes, that has been, no doubt. Though on non virus stuff the NHS is overseeing a disaster in healthcare with millions of missed cancer diagnoses, GPs refusing to see patients and people afraid of going to hospital appointments.
In the endless stream of Boris, Dido and Serco mishaps it’s important to remember that elsewhere there is much to celebrate and not to take for granted.
I also think academia hasn't covered itself in glory, the base model of viral replication here is still getting it wrong.
All models are wrong. The question is whether they are useful. The virus was clearly out of control when the scientists put the brakes on back in March. The model was instrumental in getting government to wake up. As such it served an important purpose.
I could understand the model being wrong in March. However, it's still wrong now. They're still using mathematical models, the proverbial spherical cow in a vacuum, to predict what people are going to do and people are predictably unpredictable.
By now we have more than enough data to train a proper ML model with multiple variables that will spit out a decent range, yet we got 800-107k lives saved for the circuit breaker. Academics have not kept up with best practices in data modelling and now we're paying the price.
The tanker now turned south east, the lifeboats still in pursuit, at least two maybe three boats with flashing blue lights and three helicopters overhead
All sounds very weird. The SBS is only a short way off - why haven’t they just been dropped onto the tanker to sort matters out?
Maybe they have, all I can see out there are the lights. Two of the helicopters have gone away north, one is still over the tanker, together with the boats with flashing blue lights which might be the lifeboats showing on ship finder, or some other vessel (police and naval patrol vessels are usually invisible to ship trackers, certainly when on a mission).
It’s much quieter out there now. Possibly an interesting story to tell in tomorrow’s news.
It is seriously worrying right across Europe just now
Tbf, this is us in two weeks unless the government gets a grip on self isolation and testing failures.
An honest question
Is anyone testing in Europe any better than the UK or Germany
Not particularly, I'd say that France, Spain, Netherlands and Belgium testing is worse than our system, Germany and Italy probably marginally better.
Ultimately every country suffers from the same issue of people not isolating after testing positive. Nations who have effectively defeated the virus have very good isolation measures (Australia, NZ) or people who are responsible and isolate properly without needing special measures (SK, Japan).
We seem to delight in attacking our own system which I understand is near a 400,000 a day capacity and is not far off Germany.
And of course the countries who have best dealt with this are all in the Southern Hemisphere and in New Zealand case 1500 miles from nearest land in Australia and comprises two islands with wide open spaces
The British response to Corona has much to be proud of, with only the government letting the side down.
Not really, it's been very disorganised and people have been proved to be irresponsible and not isolating after testing positive and the state has been left wanting in many areas. Any thoughts of exceptionalism should have been washed away by the virus response both from the state and the people.
The NHS, academic and pharmaceutical contribution is world class.
Yes, that has been, no doubt. Though on non virus stuff the NHS is overseeing a disaster in healthcare with millions of missed cancer diagnoses, GPs refusing to see patients and people afraid of going to hospital appointments.
In the endless stream of Boris, Dido and Serco mishaps it’s important to remember that elsewhere there is much to celebrate and not to take for granted.
I also think academia hasn't covered itself in glory, the base model of viral replication here is still getting it wrong.
All models are wrong. The question is whether they are useful. The virus was clearly out of control when the scientists put the brakes on back in March. The model was instrumental in getting government to wake up. As such it served an important purpose.
I could understand the model being wrong in March. However, it's still wrong now. They're still using mathematical models, the proverbial spherical cow in a vacuum, to predict what people are going to do and people are predictably unpredictable.
By now we have more than enough data to train a proper ML model with multiple variables that will spit out a decent range, yet we got 800-107k lives saved for the circuit breaker. Academics have not kept up with best practices in data modelling and now we're paying the price.
Why would we pay attention to academics? They didn’t even realise that cramming a load of students from every part of the country into cramped accommodation with shared and inadequately cleaned facilities might possibly not be the smartest idea in a pandemic...
Leaving aside @ydoethur's shortcomings as a punsmith when judged against the very best, I would have said that the job he continues to do when many of us would have called in sick deserves every bit as much admiration and gratitude as that done by anyone in the NHS. Especially from the parents of school age children. I would be more comfortable if attempts to white-feather him were to cease.
With respect to SPLIT-TICKET VOTING in US elections, believe that UKers and others really do NOT appreciate how common this is over here. AND not just common, but an electoral practice and tradition valued by millions of Americans as fundamental to civic responsibility and (small d) democratic legitimacy.
For example: Friend of mine, a lefty and strong Bernie Sanders supporter, was trying to find a Republican on his ballot he could vote for? At least one, just to prove - to himself and anyone he told about his decision - that he was a true (small i) independent who judged a candidate based on their qualifications NOT (merely) on basis of party.
This viewpoint - which (believe it or not) I share with my friend, and just about everyone else I know - is in fact the secret of electoral success for GOP WA Secretary of State Kim Wyman, who IF she can survive the anti-Trumpsky surge out here, will likely be the ONLY statewide elected Republican after this election.
She, like previous Republican SOSs, can beat Democratic challengers because large numbers of DEMOCRATS not just think that she's doing a good (or at least NOT a bad) job (which is supervising elections) BUT also because they want to vote for at least one GOP - and she's their best option.
It is seriously worrying right across Europe just now
Tbf, this is us in two weeks unless the government gets a grip on self isolation and testing failures.
This is us in two weeks then.
I really can’t see how schools will be able to stay open under such circumstances. It’s already running rampant through them and if vulnerable teachers have to shield then the whole system will implode again.
Plus we’re already all completely worn out and the children are exploding under the restrictions even though so far we’ve been pretty lucky with the weather.
My son’s primary is fine, and all the children and teachers seem delighted to be back.
You seem desperate for the schools to close.
Listen to me, Mr Pompous Stuck Up Last Boy Scout or whatever you’re calling yourself today, because I won’t repeat this. If you were literate and had read my earlier comments, you would know I opposed both the shutting of schools and the cancelling of exams. I felt both calls were made too soon, and were both damaging and unnecessary.
But that was then, and this is now.
Since I went back in September I have been walking far more than normal carrying heavy loads and I am having severe problems with my legs and back as a result. I am trying to teach children forced to sit in one seat all day because if they move from it at all it buggers up the Covid strategy. I am ordered to stand in a box that somehow magically insulates me from this virus even though when in it I am less than 75 cm from children who then test positive for Covid. I am teaching in unheated classrooms and forced to keep windows open because some drug addled moron in the civil service thinks that will magically stop the virus being transmitted among children who are packed like sardines.
I have taken three days off sick in my life. All have been since the start of Covid.
The sick list last week was skyrocketing. Staff and children. Everyone is strained, and everyone is exhausted. I am in addition to dealing with my own physical problems having to provide extensive cover for colleagues. One more going off and we would have been in big trouble. In fact, we were already at panic stations on Thursday in case we couldn’t open Friday. And it’s not just Covid. Exhaustion and muscular problems account for around half.
And my reward, when I say this isn’t sustainable for the the not wholly ridiculous reason that it isn’t, is to be sneered at by somebody who would clearly make Dominic Cummings look intelligent, sophisticated and knowledgeable, on the basis of anecdotal evidence derived from limited experience. Do you really think they’re going to say how much they hate the restrictions and they wish you and your child would get stuffed?
I don’t want schools to shut. I teach. I enjoy teaching and I am good at it. But equally this cannot go on and if we have skyrocketing infection rates whatever those drug addled fellow low lifes of yours in the Department for Education thinks, we will have to shut schools down.
So my answer to your dishonest personal attack is - fuck off. Take your nastiness and condescension home and I hope it chokes you.
I have to say none of my grandchildren seem to have had any issues at school other than some self isolation and my son has been in school throughout the crisis, and says that there is a lot of stress amongst the staff but they recognise how important their role is in this crisis
I really hope things do become easier for you and your post does identify so many stress points
I assume you are either on or going on half term and hope this may help you
It is seriously worrying right across Europe just now
Tbf, this is us in two weeks unless the government gets a grip on self isolation and testing failures.
An honest question
Is anyone testing in Europe any better than the UK or Germany
Not particularly, I'd say that France, Spain, Netherlands and Belgium testing is worse than our system, Germany and Italy probably marginally better.
Ultimately every country suffers from the same issue of people not isolating after testing positive. Nations who have effectively defeated the virus have very good isolation measures (Australia, NZ) or people who are responsible and isolate properly without needing special measures (SK, Japan).
We seem to delight in attacking our own system which I understand is near a 400,000 a day capacity and is not far off Germany.
And of course the countries who have best dealt with this are all in the Southern Hemisphere and in New Zealand case 1500 miles from nearest land in Australia and comprises two islands with wide open spaces
The British response to Corona has much to be proud of, with only the government letting the side down.
Not really, it's been very disorganised and people have been proved to be irresponsible and not isolating after testing positive and the state has been left wanting in many areas. Any thoughts of exceptionalism should have been washed away by the virus response both from the state and the people.
The NHS, academic and pharmaceutical contribution is world class.
Yes, that has been, no doubt. Though on non virus stuff the NHS is overseeing a disaster in healthcare with millions of missed cancer diagnoses, GPs refusing to see patients and people afraid of going to hospital appointments.
In the endless stream of Boris, Dido and Serco mishaps it’s important to remember that elsewhere there is much to celebrate and not to take for granted.
I also think academia hasn't covered itself in glory, the base model of viral replication here is still getting it wrong.
All models are wrong. The question is whether they are useful. The virus was clearly out of control when the scientists put the brakes on back in March. The model was instrumental in getting government to wake up. As such it served an important purpose.
The circuit breaker models presented to SAGE predicts it will save somewhere between low 1000 and 107k lives...it is not useful at all.
Although, in fairness, it's probably correct. And how often can that be said?
Leaving aside @ydoethur's shortcomings as a punsmith when judged against the very best, I would have said that the job he continues to do when many of us would have called in sick deserves every bit as much admiration and gratitude as that done by anyone in the NHS. Especially from the parents of school age children. I would be more comfortable if attempts to white-feather him were to cease.
I’m not sure whether to thank you for the kind words or take umbrage at the comments on my punning skills...
With respect to SPLIT-TICKET VOTING in US elections, believe that UKers and others really do NOT appreciate how common this is over here. AND not just common, but an electoral practice and tradition valued by millions of Americans as fundamental to civic responsibility and (small d) democratic legitimacy.
For example: Friend of mine, a lefty and strong Bernie Sanders supporter, was trying to find a Republican on his ballot he could vote for? At least one, just to prove - to himself and anyone he told about his decision - that he was a true (small i) independent who judged a candidate based on their qualifications NOT (merely) on basis of party.
This viewpoint - which (believe it or not) I share with my friend, and just about everyone else I know - is in fact the secret of electoral success for GOP WA Secretary of State Kim Wyman, who IF she can survive the anti-Trumpsky surge out here, will likely be the ONLY statewide elected Republican after this election.
She, like previous Republican SOSs, can beat Democratic challengers because large numbers of DEMOCRATS not just think that she's doing a good (or at least NOT a bad) job (which is supervising elections) BUT also because they want to vote for at least one GOP - and she's their best option.
Similarly Massachusetts has had a GOP governor for many years, and West Virginia has a Democratic senator
It is seriously worrying right across Europe just now
Tbf, this is us in two weeks unless the government gets a grip on self isolation and testing failures.
An honest question
Is anyone testing in Europe any better than the UK or Germany
Not particularly, I'd say that France, Spain, Netherlands and Belgium testing is worse than our system, Germany and Italy probably marginally better.
Ultimately every country suffers from the same issue of people not isolating after testing positive. Nations who have effectively defeated the virus have very good isolation measures (Australia, NZ) or people who are responsible and isolate properly without needing special measures (SK, Japan).
We seem to delight in attacking our own system which I understand is near a 400,000 a day capacity and is not far off Germany.
And of course the countries who have best dealt with this are all in the Southern Hemisphere and in New Zealand case 1500 miles from nearest land in Australia and comprises two islands with wide open spaces
The testing numbers aren't as important as effectiveness. We could be testing fewer than half the number of people if we had faster turnaround times and proper contact tracing with local authorities in charge door knocking taking swabs and getting tests processed locally within 24h if taking the swab and then isolating people properly.
I am sure you are right but which countries in Europe, if any, are actually achieving that
None, but I don't see why that's really relevant. Just because they aren't doing it properly it doesn't mean we have to follow and not do it properly. We should be aiming for better than merely as crap as everyone else.
I really do think we are notwithstanding baroness Harding
It is seriously worrying right across Europe just now
Tbf, this is us in two weeks unless the government gets a grip on self isolation and testing failures.
An honest question
Is anyone testing in Europe any better than the UK or Germany
Not particularly, I'd say that France, Spain, Netherlands and Belgium testing is worse than our system, Germany and Italy probably marginally better.
Ultimately every country suffers from the same issue of people not isolating after testing positive. Nations who have effectively defeated the virus have very good isolation measures (Australia, NZ) or people who are responsible and isolate properly without needing special measures (SK, Japan).
We seem to delight in attacking our own system which I understand is near a 400,000 a day capacity and is not far off Germany.
And of course the countries who have best dealt with this are all in the Southern Hemisphere and in New Zealand case 1500 miles from nearest land in Australia and comprises two islands with wide open spaces
The British response to Corona has much to be proud of, with only the government letting the side down.
Not really, it's been very disorganised and people have been proved to be irresponsible and not isolating after testing positive and the state has been left wanting in many areas. Any thoughts of exceptionalism should have been washed away by the virus response both from the state and the people.
The NHS, academic and pharmaceutical contribution is world class.
Yes, that has been, no doubt. Though on non virus stuff the NHS is overseeing a disaster in healthcare with millions of missed cancer diagnoses, GPs refusing to see patients and people afraid of going to hospital appointments.
In the endless stream of Boris, Dido and Serco mishaps it’s important to remember that elsewhere there is much to celebrate and not to take for granted.
I also think academia hasn't covered itself in glory, the base model of viral replication here is still getting it wrong.
All models are wrong. The question is whether they are useful. The virus was clearly out of control when the scientists put the brakes on back in March. The model was instrumental in getting government to wake up. As such it served an important purpose.
The circuit breaker models presented to SAGE predicts it will save somewhere between low 1000 and 107k lives...it is not useful at all.
Although, in fairness, it's probably correct. And how often can that be said?
Well with that kind of range of course it's correct, it's absolutely worthless though.
A "muscular socialism of the family"? - Hmm. Not sure I'm going to like this. Depends what it means.
Yes - I think it comes under the heading of not distracting opponents when they're making an error. There's a time for holding forth on parental responsibility, but the moment when the Government is using alleged irresponsibility as an excuse is not the right moment.
It is seriously worrying right across Europe just now
Tbf, this is us in two weeks unless the government gets a grip on self isolation and testing failures.
An honest question
Is anyone testing in Europe any better than the UK or Germany
Not particularly, I'd say that France, Spain, Netherlands and Belgium testing is worse than our system, Germany and Italy probably marginally better.
Ultimately every country suffers from the same issue of people not isolating after testing positive. Nations who have effectively defeated the virus have very good isolation measures (Australia, NZ) or people who are responsible and isolate properly without needing special measures (SK, Japan).
We seem to delight in attacking our own system which I understand is near a 400,000 a day capacity and is not far off Germany.
And of course the countries who have best dealt with this are all in the Southern Hemisphere and in New Zealand case 1500 miles from nearest land in Australia and comprises two islands with wide open spaces
The British response to Corona has much to be proud of, with only the government letting the side down.
Not really, it's been very disorganised and people have been proved to be irresponsible and not isolating after testing positive and the state has been left wanting in many areas. Any thoughts of exceptionalism should have been washed away by the virus response both from the state and the people.
The NHS, academic and pharmaceutical contribution is world class.
Yes, that has been, no doubt. Though on non virus stuff the NHS is overseeing a disaster in healthcare with millions of missed cancer diagnoses, GPs refusing to see patients and people afraid of going to hospital appointments.
In the endless stream of Boris, Dido and Serco mishaps it’s important to remember that elsewhere there is much to celebrate and not to take for granted.
I also think academia hasn't covered itself in glory, the base model of viral replication here is still getting it wrong.
All models are wrong. The question is whether they are useful. The virus was clearly out of control when the scientists put the brakes on back in March. The model was instrumental in getting government to wake up. As such it served an important purpose.
The circuit breaker models presented to SAGE predicts it will save somewhere between low 1000 and 107k lives...it is not useful at all.
Although, in fairness, it's probably correct. And how often can that be said?
Well with that kind of range of course it's correct, it's absolutely worthless though.
It’s a bit like the time Tim Renton was asked how many civil servants were either (a) men or (b) women and truthfully answered, ‘all of them.’
It is seriously worrying right across Europe just now
Tbf, this is us in two weeks unless the government gets a grip on self isolation and testing failures.
An honest question
Is anyone testing in Europe any better than the UK or Germany
Not particularly, I'd say that France, Spain, Netherlands and Belgium testing is worse than our system, Germany and Italy probably marginally better.
Ultimately every country suffers from the same issue of people not isolating after testing positive. Nations who have effectively defeated the virus have very good isolation measures (Australia, NZ) or people who are responsible and isolate properly without needing special measures (SK, Japan).
We seem to delight in attacking our own system which I understand is near a 400,000 a day capacity and is not far off Germany.
And of course the countries who have best dealt with this are all in the Southern Hemisphere and in New Zealand case 1500 miles from nearest land in Australia and comprises two islands with wide open spaces
The British response to Corona has much to be proud of, with only the government letting the side down.
Not really, it's been very disorganised and people have been proved to be irresponsible and not isolating after testing positive and the state has been left wanting in many areas. Any thoughts of exceptionalism should have been washed away by the virus response both from the state and the people.
The NHS, academic and pharmaceutical contribution is world class.
Yes, that has been, no doubt. Though on non virus stuff the NHS is overseeing a disaster in healthcare with millions of missed cancer diagnoses, GPs refusing to see patients and people afraid of going to hospital appointments.
In the endless stream of Boris, Dido and Serco mishaps it’s important to remember that elsewhere there is much to celebrate and not to take for granted.
I also think academia hasn't covered itself in glory, the base model of viral replication here is still getting it wrong.
All models are wrong. The question is whether they are useful. The virus was clearly out of control when the scientists put the brakes on back in March. The model was instrumental in getting government to wake up. As such it served an important purpose.
I could understand the model being wrong in March. However, it's still wrong now. They're still using mathematical models, the proverbial spherical cow in a vacuum, to predict what people are going to do and people are predictably unpredictable.
By now we have more than enough data to train a proper ML model with multiple variables that will spit out a decent range, yet we got 800-107k lives saved for the circuit breaker. Academics have not kept up with best practices in data modelling and now we're paying the price.
I wonder how much the recent gold rush of ML / AI talent being hired into the private sector has effected this.
For instance, I believe Deep Mind hired about 300 PhDs alone over the past 3 years.
North Carolina turnout in early 2020 votes is now 65% of total 2016 votes. 4.7m votes were cast in 2016, 3.1m have already been cast in 2020.
Of these votes, 40.5% are from registered Democrats, and 30% from registered Republicans, an absolute difference of 326,000.
The Republicans have an enormous amount of catching up to do and are running out of time to do it.
One thing to be careful of in NC is older voters registered Democrats but who vote Republicans.
In rural areas, which are 19pc of votes cast so far (or what I checked last earlier), the Democrats have a big lead by party registration. Given these tend to be Trump areas, and that the EV has skewed heavily to older voters, there is a good chance many of these are registered as Democrats but have voted for Trump.
Regardless, the Republicans have been cutting the democrat lead in party registration votes by c 2pc per day and it is now at 11pc. Souls to the polls will be less effective this year given CV.
I’m increasingly of the view the Republicans will hold NC both at the Senate and Presidential level
Based on party registration, registered Democrats won NC by 78k in 2016 in early voting, with a swing back to the Republicans on election day. But the Democrats are already 326k ahead this year. They were 328k ahead yesterday so the lead seems pretty stable, with time running out.
One thing to be careful of is assuming that this election will pan out according to the same pattern as 2016, when there is evidence of massive change staring you in the face.
Another change is Biden's tendency to poll pretty well amongst seniors in 2020, in contrast to Clinton in 2016, something that's been well analysed when considering why he is polling so well in Florida. Maybe as vulnerable people they prefer a candidate who doesn't consider them expendible. Assuming that there will be large swathes of registered Democratic seniors defecting to Trump in 2020 seems a bit fanciful in the circumstances.
Well, clarification. I’m not assuming large swathes of older Democrats swing to Trump just that, in NC and much of the South, older voters tend to be registered Democrats but are effectively Democrats. This is why you just can’t take the registered party as indicative of votes, at least for older voters.
Even discarding this, the trend has persisted for several days, namely the Democrat lead by cut by around 2pp per day. It is now under 11pc. To give some context, 9 days ago it was 27pc. Even if this slows, the chances are in registration, the two sides will be near parity by Election Day.
It is seriously worrying right across Europe just now
Tbf, this is us in two weeks unless the government gets a grip on self isolation and testing failures.
An honest question
Is anyone testing in Europe any better than the UK or Germany
Not particularly, I'd say that France, Spain, Netherlands and Belgium testing is worse than our system, Germany and Italy probably marginally better.
Ultimately every country suffers from the same issue of people not isolating after testing positive. Nations who have effectively defeated the virus have very good isolation measures (Australia, NZ) or people who are responsible and isolate properly without needing special measures (SK, Japan).
We seem to delight in attacking our own system which I understand is near a 400,000 a day capacity and is not far off Germany.
And of course the countries who have best dealt with this are all in the Southern Hemisphere and in New Zealand case 1500 miles from nearest land in Australia and comprises two islands with wide open spaces
The British response to Corona has much to be proud of, with only the government letting the side down.
For all the mistakes I do not think HMG have performed much worse than other governments to be fair
You need to get your eyes tested. On second thoughts don’t.
I have my eyes tested every year as at my age I need to be sure I can drive safely
However I do not expect you to be independent in your assessment as you have your own political views
That old chestnut. Whilst we can’t meet you exquisite impartiality standards BigG 😂, even the government says it hasn’t kept its promises.
Glad you get your eyes tested, the Barnard Castle branch of Specsavers no doubt..
North Carolina turnout in early 2020 votes is now 65% of total 2016 votes. 4.7m votes were cast in 2016, 3.1m have already been cast in 2020.
Of these votes, 40.5% are from registered Democrats, and 30% from registered Republicans, an absolute difference of 326,000.
The Republicans have an enormous amount of catching up to do and are running out of time to do it.
One thing to be careful of in NC is older voters registered Democrats but who vote Republicans.
In rural areas, which are 19pc of votes cast so far (or what I checked last earlier), the Democrats have a big lead by party registration. Given these tend to be Trump areas, and that the EV has skewed heavily to older voters, there is a good chance many of these are registered as Democrats but have voted for Trump.
Regardless, the Republicans have been cutting the democrat lead in party registration votes by c 2pc per day and it is now at 11pc. Souls to the polls will be less effective this year given CV.
I’m increasingly of the view the Republicans will hold NC both at the Senate and Presidential level
Based on party registration, registered Democrats won NC by 78k in 2016 in early voting, with a swing back to the Republicans on election day. But the Democrats are already 326k ahead this year. They were 328k ahead yesterday so the lead seems pretty stable, with time running out.
One thing to be careful of is assuming that this election will pan out according to the same pattern as 2016, when there is evidence of massive change staring you in the face.
Another change is Biden's tendency to poll pretty well amongst seniors in 2020, in contrast to Clinton in 2016, something that's been well analysed when considering why he is polling so well in Florida. Maybe as vulnerable people they prefer a candidate who doesn't consider them expendible. Assuming that there will be large swathes of registered Democratic seniors defecting to Trump in 2020 seems a bit fanciful in the circumstances.
Well, clarification. I’m not assuming large swathes of older Democrats swing to Trump just that, in NC and much of the South, older voters tend to be registered Democrats but are effectively Democrats. This is why you just can’t take the registered party as indicative of votes, at least for older voters.
Even discarding this, the trend has persisted for several days, namely the Democrat lead by cut by around 2pp per day. It is now under 11pc. To give some context, 9 days ago it was 27pc. Even if this slows, the chances are in registration, the two sides will be near parity by Election Day.
Leaving aside @ydoethur's shortcomings as a punsmith when judged against the very best, I would have said that the job he continues to do when many of us would have called in sick deserves every bit as much admiration and gratitude as that done by anyone in the NHS. Especially from the parents of school age children. I would be more comfortable if attempts to white-feather him were to cease.
I’m not sure whether to thank you for the kind words or take umbrage at the comments on my punning skills...
I will always defend your claim to be PB's second best paronomast.
Note forecast storm path continues through Alabama & north Georgia. Thing about hurricanes is that while coast get strongest winds, tidal surges and LOTS of rain, inland areas have no tides and lower wind speeds BUT very often also get LOTS of rain. Which can be nearly or even just as disruptive as impact closer to salt water.
Just more reason to vote early if possible - and more reason for candidates and parties to benefit if & when their followers do so.
It is seriously worrying right across Europe just now
Tbf, this is us in two weeks unless the government gets a grip on self isolation and testing failures.
An honest question
Is anyone testing in Europe any better than the UK or Germany
Not particularly, I'd say that France, Spain, Netherlands and Belgium testing is worse than our system, Germany and Italy probably marginally better.
Ultimately every country suffers from the same issue of people not isolating after testing positive. Nations who have effectively defeated the virus have very good isolation measures (Australia, NZ) or people who are responsible and isolate properly without needing special measures (SK, Japan).
We seem to delight in attacking our own system which I understand is near a 400,000 a day capacity and is not far off Germany.
And of course the countries who have best dealt with this are all in the Southern Hemisphere and in New Zealand case 1500 miles from nearest land in Australia and comprises two islands with wide open spaces
The British response to Corona has much to be proud of, with only the government letting the side down.
For all the mistakes I do not think HMG have performed much worse than other governments to be fair
You need to get your eyes tested. On second thoughts don’t.
I have my eyes tested every year as at my age I need to be sure I can drive safely
However I do not expect you to be independent in your assessment as you have your own political views
That old chestnut. Whilst we can’t meet you exquisite impartiality standards BigG 😂, even the government says it hasn’t kept its promises.
Glad you get your eyes tested, the Barnard Castle branch of Specsavers no doubt..
No - Llandudno Boots
Unlike the Barnard Castle story, they’re not cobblers.
It is seriously worrying right across Europe just now
Tbf, this is us in two weeks unless the government gets a grip on self isolation and testing failures.
An honest question
Is anyone testing in Europe any better than the UK or Germany
Not particularly, I'd say that France, Spain, Netherlands and Belgium testing is worse than our system, Germany and Italy probably marginally better.
Ultimately every country suffers from the same issue of people not isolating after testing positive. Nations who have effectively defeated the virus have very good isolation measures (Australia, NZ) or people who are responsible and isolate properly without needing special measures (SK, Japan).
We seem to delight in attacking our own system which I understand is near a 400,000 a day capacity and is not far off Germany.
And of course the countries who have best dealt with this are all in the Southern Hemisphere and in New Zealand case 1500 miles from nearest land in Australia and comprises two islands with wide open spaces
The British response to Corona has much to be proud of, with only the government letting the side down.
For all the mistakes I do not think HMG have performed much worse than other governments to be fair
What we're seeing now is the difference between a Prime Minister who's on top of his brief (Cameron) and an extremely lazy and slapdash one (Johnson).
Cameron would have closed this down by Friday last week, and amended the narrative by pushing the issue onto his turf. He got criticised for being an "essay crisis" PM for that but at least he recognised a crisis when he saw one, and actually wrote the essay and got it in on time. He'd have learnt lessons from it on how to avoid it again.
Boris simply can't be arsed. He doesn't do his red boxes. He doesn't think even one step ahead and just lets events happen. Meanwhile various backbenches and civil servants either stick to the Government's original message or try and triangulate with the developing political arguments, risking them looking stupid and foolish as things develop (and ultimately) change.
Eventually when things spiral out of control Boris realises he has no choice but to backpedal. By that stage he's surrendered all initiative and looks like he's reacting to events rather than shaping them, because he is.
There's a reason Max Hastings, Michael Howard, David Cameron and all the mayoral deputies who used to work for him thought he was useless - because he is.
It is seriously worrying right across Europe just now
Tbf, this is us in two weeks unless the government gets a grip on self isolation and testing failures.
An honest question
Is anyone testing in Europe any better than the UK or Germany
Not particularly, I'd say that France, Spain, Netherlands and Belgium testing is worse than our system, Germany and Italy probably marginally better.
Ultimately every country suffers from the same issue of people not isolating after testing positive. Nations who have effectively defeated the virus have very good isolation measures (Australia, NZ) or people who are responsible and isolate properly without needing special measures (SK, Japan).
We seem to delight in attacking our own system which I understand is near a 400,000 a day capacity and is not far off Germany.
And of course the countries who have best dealt with this are all in the Southern Hemisphere and in New Zealand case 1500 miles from nearest land in Australia and comprises two islands with wide open spaces
The British response to Corona has much to be proud of, with only the government letting the side down.
Not really, it's been very disorganised and people have been proved to be irresponsible and not isolating after testing positive and the state has been left wanting in many areas. Any thoughts of exceptionalism should have been washed away by the virus response both from the state and the people.
The NHS, academic and pharmaceutical contribution is world class.
The NHS is stunningly mediocre - it really is.
Our academic and pharmaceuticals are world class though, I agree.
Leaving aside @ydoethur's shortcomings as a punsmith when judged against the very best, I would have said that the job he continues to do when many of us would have called in sick deserves every bit as much admiration and gratitude as that done by anyone in the NHS. Especially from the parents of school age children. I would be more comfortable if attempts to white-feather him were to cease.
I’m not sure whether to thank you for the kind words or take umbrage at the comments on my punning skills...
I will always defend your claim to be PB's second best paronomast.
Polling is pretty consistent that Biden is outpolling Trump 2:1 among already voteds, and then 1:2 among other likely voters.
If he manages that, it would be another big blow to established thinking - I don't know a GOTV campaign that wouldn't love to have 2/3rd to 3/4 (potentially more) "in the hutch".
It is seriously worrying right across Europe just now
Tbf, this is us in two weeks unless the government gets a grip on self isolation and testing failures.
An honest question
Is anyone testing in Europe any better than the UK or Germany
Not particularly, I'd say that France, Spain, Netherlands and Belgium testing is worse than our system, Germany and Italy probably marginally better.
Ultimately every country suffers from the same issue of people not isolating after testing positive. Nations who have effectively defeated the virus have very good isolation measures (Australia, NZ) or people who are responsible and isolate properly without needing special measures (SK, Japan).
We seem to delight in attacking our own system which I understand is near a 400,000 a day capacity and is not far off Germany.
And of course the countries who have best dealt with this are all in the Southern Hemisphere and in New Zealand case 1500 miles from nearest land in Australia and comprises two islands with wide open spaces
The British response to Corona has much to be proud of, with only the government letting the side down.
Not really, it's been very disorganised and people have been proved to be irresponsible and not isolating after testing positive and the state has been left wanting in many areas. Any thoughts of exceptionalism should have been washed away by the virus response both from the state and the people.
The NHS, academic and pharmaceutical contribution is world class.
Yes, that has been, no doubt. Though on non virus stuff the NHS is overseeing a disaster in healthcare with millions of missed cancer diagnoses, GPs refusing to see patients and people afraid of going to hospital appointments.
In the endless stream of Boris, Dido and Serco mishaps it’s important to remember that elsewhere there is much to celebrate and not to take for granted.
I also think academia hasn't covered itself in glory, the base model of viral replication here is still getting it wrong.
All models are wrong. The question is whether they are useful. The virus was clearly out of control when the scientists put the brakes on back in March. The model was instrumental in getting government to wake up. As such it served an important purpose.
The circuit breaker models presented to SAGE predicts it will save somewhere between low 1000 and 107k lives...it is not useful at all.
Although, in fairness, it's probably correct. And how often can that be said?
And totally useless...you can't make public policy on a model that has such a wide range..
Also just think about the models output for a moment. The upper end is 100k lives SAVED by the end of the year....not even 100k deaths, but saved lives vs no 2 week lockdown. That would mean deaths would be occurring at an insane rate, totally unlike the first wave (despite better medical understanding etc etc etc).
The helicopter is almost down at sea level now, and the boats with the blue lights are too far apart to be the two lifeboats showing in pursuit on ship finder, so there are at least four responding vessels out there.
It is seriously worrying right across Europe just now
Tbf, this is us in two weeks unless the government gets a grip on self isolation and testing failures.
An honest question
Is anyone testing in Europe any better than the UK or Germany
Not particularly, I'd say that France, Spain, Netherlands and Belgium testing is worse than our system, Germany and Italy probably marginally better.
Ultimately every country suffers from the same issue of people not isolating after testing positive. Nations who have effectively defeated the virus have very good isolation measures (Australia, NZ) or people who are responsible and isolate properly without needing special measures (SK, Japan).
We seem to delight in attacking our own system which I understand is near a 400,000 a day capacity and is not far off Germany.
And of course the countries who have best dealt with this are all in the Southern Hemisphere and in New Zealand case 1500 miles from nearest land in Australia and comprises two islands with wide open spaces
The British response to Corona has much to be proud of, with only the government letting the side down.
For all the mistakes I do not think HMG have performed much worse than other governments to be fair
What we're seeing now is the difference between a Prime Minister who's on top of his brief (Cameron) and an extremely lazy and slapdash one (Johnson).
Cameron would have closed this down by Friday last week, and amended the narrative by pushing the issue onto his turf. He got criticised for being an "essay crisis" PM for that but at least he recognised a crisis when he saw one, and actually wrote the essay and got it in on time. He'd have learnt lessons from it on how to avoid it again.
Boris simply can't be arsed. He doesn't do his red boxes. He doesn't think even one step ahead and just lets events happen. Meanwhile various backbenches and civil servants either stick to the Government's original message or try and triangulate with the developing political arguments, risking them looking stupid and foolish as things develop (and ultimately) change.
Eventually when things spiral out of control Boris realises he has no choice but to backpedal. By that stage he's surrendered all initiative and looks like he's reacting to events rather than shaping them, because he is.
There's a reason Max Hastings, Michael Howard, David Cameron and all the mayoral deputies who used to work for him thought he was useless - because he is.
Fair comment
And I would be very content for Cameron to be dealing with this
Trafalgar have just slapped a NC poll up on their site.
And you are never going to believe it, it has exactly the same demographics as the one from September.
Outstanding consistency
Likely they've got some techie who takes txt & robo push-button responses to push-polling questions (where the REAL point is message NOT the response) then re-configures results based on demographics obtained from source OTHER than the actual texts & calls.
Then Cahaly pumps it out as another Trafalgar Group "poll".
This is all supposition - but it DOES fit the known facts (including TG's own vague "explanation" re: methodology) AND is certainly right in the Lee Atwater - Karl Rove (remember him?) wheelhouse.
A "muscular socialism of the family"? - Hmm. Not sure I'm going to like this. Depends what it means.
Yes - I think it comes under the heading of not distracting opponents when they're making an error. There's a time for holding forth on parental responsibility, but the moment when the Government is using alleged irresponsibility as an excuse is not the right moment.
Nick a small challenge for you....
Given that uc was increased by 20£ a week in march and that most children that get fsm are from homes on uc then there should be evidence which you as an ex mp can access via your old colleagues showing this extra money caused a massive drop in the number of malnourished children.
As a supporter of labours new 15£ voucher policy I am sure you will have no issue showing us this evidence as proof the latest throw money at it wheeze will make a difference.
I will wait patiently but won't hold my breath as if there was any evidence it helped no doubt no 10 would already have retorted with "We already increased money to families on uc and that reduced the number of malnourished children by 50%"
It is seriously worrying right across Europe just now
Tbf, this is us in two weeks unless the government gets a grip on self isolation and testing failures.
An honest question
Is anyone testing in Europe any better than the UK or Germany
Not particularly, I'd say that France, Spain, Netherlands and Belgium testing is worse than our system, Germany and Italy probably marginally better.
Ultimately every country suffers from the same issue of people not isolating after testing positive. Nations who have effectively defeated the virus have very good isolation measures (Australia, NZ) or people who are responsible and isolate properly without needing special measures (SK, Japan).
We seem to delight in attacking our own system which I understand is near a 400,000 a day capacity and is not far off Germany.
And of course the countries who have best dealt with this are all in the Southern Hemisphere and in New Zealand case 1500 miles from nearest land in Australia and comprises two islands with wide open spaces
The British response to Corona has much to be proud of, with only the government letting the side down.
For all the mistakes I do not think HMG have performed much worse than other governments to be fair
What we're seeing now is the difference between a Prime Minister who's on top of his brief (Cameron) and an extremely lazy and slapdash one (Johnson).
Cameron would have closed this down by Friday last week, and amended the narrative by pushing the issue onto his turf. He got criticised for being an "essay crisis" PM for that but at least he recognised a crisis when he saw one, and actually wrote the essay and got it in on time. He'd have learnt lessons from it on how to avoid it again.
Boris simply can't be arsed. He doesn't do his red boxes. He doesn't think even one step ahead and just lets events happen. Meanwhile various backbenches and civil servants either stick to the Government's original message or try and triangulate with the developing political arguments, risking them looking stupid and foolish as things develop (and ultimately) change.
Eventually when things spiral out of control Boris realises he has no choice but to backpedal. By that stage he's surrendered all initiative and looks like he's reacting to events rather than shaping them, because he is.
There's a reason Max Hastings, Michael Howard, David Cameron and all the mayoral deputies who used to work for him thought he was useless - because he is.
Asleep at the wheel - with a suspended drivers license AND an open bottle of gin in the glove box.
BBC breaking - saying within the last few minutes the situation with the tanker is apparently resolved.
The tanker has slowed, one of the lifeboats is alongside.
Apparently seven stowaways on board. Suggestion is that the SBS based at Poole may just have gone in; either the helicopter I saw go in low or one of the pursuing boats.
It is seriously worrying right across Europe just now
Tbf, this is us in two weeks unless the government gets a grip on self isolation and testing failures.
An honest question
Is anyone testing in Europe any better than the UK or Germany
Not particularly, I'd say that France, Spain, Netherlands and Belgium testing is worse than our system, Germany and Italy probably marginally better.
Ultimately every country suffers from the same issue of people not isolating after testing positive. Nations who have effectively defeated the virus have very good isolation measures (Australia, NZ) or people who are responsible and isolate properly without needing special measures (SK, Japan).
We seem to delight in attacking our own system which I understand is near a 400,000 a day capacity and is not far off Germany.
And of course the countries who have best dealt with this are all in the Southern Hemisphere and in New Zealand case 1500 miles from nearest land in Australia and comprises two islands with wide open spaces
The British response to Corona has much to be proud of, with only the government letting the side down.
Not really, it's been very disorganised and people have been proved to be irresponsible and not isolating after testing positive and the state has been left wanting in many areas. Any thoughts of exceptionalism should have been washed away by the virus response both from the state and the people.
The NHS, academic and pharmaceutical contribution is world class.
Yes, that has been, no doubt. Though on non virus stuff the NHS is overseeing a disaster in healthcare with millions of missed cancer diagnoses, GPs refusing to see patients and people afraid of going to hospital appointments.
In the endless stream of Boris, Dido and Serco mishaps it’s important to remember that elsewhere there is much to celebrate and not to take for granted.
I also think academia hasn't covered itself in glory, the base model of viral replication here is still getting it wrong.
All models are wrong. The question is whether they are useful. The virus was clearly out of control when the scientists put the brakes on back in March. The model was instrumental in getting government to wake up. As such it served an important purpose.
The circuit breaker models presented to SAGE predicts it will save somewhere between low 1000 and 107k lives...it is not useful at all.
Although, in fairness, it's probably correct. And how often can that be said?
And totally useless...you can't make public policy on a model that has such a wide range..
Also just think about the models output for a moment. The upper end is 100k lives SAVED by the end of the year....not even 100k deaths, but saved lives vs no 2 week lockdown. That would mean deaths would be occurring at an insane rate, totally unlike the first wave (despite better medical understanding etc etc etc).
Yes I know. It is rather like predicting the FA Cup final will be decided by fewer than an eight goal margin, or that in 2025 the PM will have 2 arm's and a head. Almost certainly correct.
Leaving aside @ydoethur's shortcomings as a punsmith when judged against the very best, I would have said that the job he continues to do when many of us would have called in sick deserves every bit as much admiration and gratitude as that done by anyone in the NHS. Especially from the parents of school age children. I would be more comfortable if attempts to white-feather him were to cease.
Hear, hear - he and other teachers are doing a very good job in difficult conditions.
It is seriously worrying right across Europe just now
Tbf, this is us in two weeks unless the government gets a grip on self isolation and testing failures.
An honest question
Is anyone testing in Europe any better than the UK or Germany
Not particularly, I'd say that France, Spain, Netherlands and Belgium testing is worse than our system, Germany and Italy probably marginally better.
Ultimately every country suffers from the same issue of people not isolating after testing positive. Nations who have effectively defeated the virus have very good isolation measures (Australia, NZ) or people who are responsible and isolate properly without needing special measures (SK, Japan).
We seem to delight in attacking our own system which I understand is near a 400,000 a day capacity and is not far off Germany.
And of course the countries who have best dealt with this are all in the Southern Hemisphere and in New Zealand case 1500 miles from nearest land in Australia and comprises two islands with wide open spaces
The British response to Corona has much to be proud of, with only the government letting the side down.
For all the mistakes I do not think HMG have performed much worse than other governments to be fair
What we're seeing now is the difference between a Prime Minister who's on top of his brief (Cameron) and an extremely lazy and slapdash one (Johnson).
Cameron would have closed this down by Friday last week, and amended the narrative by pushing the issue onto his turf. He got criticised for being an "essay crisis" PM for that but at least he recognised a crisis when he saw one, and actually wrote the essay and got it in on time. He'd have learnt lessons from it on how to avoid it again.
Boris simply can't be arsed. He doesn't do his red boxes. He doesn't think even one step ahead and just lets events happen. Meanwhile various backbenches and civil servants either stick to the Government's original message or try and triangulate with the developing political arguments, risking them looking stupid and foolish as things develop (and ultimately) change.
Eventually when things spiral out of control Boris realises he has no choice but to backpedal. By that stage he's surrendered all initiative and looks like he's reacting to events rather than shaping them, because he is.
There's a reason Max Hastings, Michael Howard, David Cameron and all the mayoral deputies who used to work for him thought he was useless - because he is.
Asleep at the wheel - with a suspended drivers license AND an open bottle of gin in the glove box.
Isn't that a US crime, the open bottle, rather than an English one?
Comments
On other hand, polling (at least nationally) shows that one of Trumpsky & RNC's big problems this year is defection of many seniors, due mainly to COVID-19.
However, I’m increasingly confident Trump will win. Enthusiasm is high on both sides but the Democrats seem to be struggling to get Black turnout particularly enthused and I think Trump will pick up a few pp on the Hispanic vote. Also, I expect the pollsters to be proven wrong again in that they would have underweighted non-college educated white voters in their samples (I’m thinking they will go with 2016 as a guide to the % of the electorate but that these voters will turn out in much bigger numbers in 2020)
Now three helicopters out there, two very low and one high up, and some bright lights out at sea
While of course they are on school half term, extended another week here in Wales, they have not had any interruption so far
SomaliSouthsea pirates.That said, I get that he needs to cover his flank if he's going to revolt.
We are still seeing it now with the model for how effective a circuit breaker might be providing nonsensical results.
Partly because Biden-Harris have really NOT stressed this, because Trumpsky has muddied his own waters here by his way-over-the-top AND overtly racist response.
But mostly because they are concerned more (I think) with COVID now AND the trajectory of the economy in the not-so-distant future.
However I do not expect you to be independent in your assessment as you have your own political views
But that was then, and this is now.
Since I went back in September I have been walking far more than normal carrying heavy loads and I am having severe problems with my legs and back as a result. I am trying to teach children forced to sit in one seat all day because if they move from it at all it buggers up the Covid strategy. I am ordered to stand in a box that somehow magically insulates me from this virus even though when in it I am less than 75 cm from children who then test positive for Covid. I am teaching in unheated classrooms and forced to keep windows open because some drug addled moron in the civil service thinks that will magically stop the virus being transmitted among children who are packed like sardines.
I have taken three days off sick in my life. All have been since the start of Covid.
The sick list last week was skyrocketing. Staff and children. Everyone is strained, and everyone is exhausted. I am in addition to dealing with my own physical problems having to provide extensive cover for colleagues. One more going off and we would have been in big trouble. In fact, we were already at panic stations on Thursday in case we couldn’t open Friday. And it’s not just Covid. Exhaustion and muscular problems account for around half.
And my reward, when I say this isn’t sustainable for the the not wholly ridiculous reason that it isn’t, is to be sneered at by somebody who would clearly make Dominic Cummings look intelligent, sophisticated and knowledgeable, on the basis of anecdotal evidence derived from limited experience. Do you really think they’re going to say how much they hate the restrictions and they wish you and your child would get stuffed?
I don’t want schools to shut. I teach. I enjoy teaching and I am good at it. But equally this cannot go on and if we have skyrocketing infection rates whatever those drug addled fellow low lifes of yours in the Department for Education thinks, we will have to shut schools down.
So my answer to your dishonest personal attack is - fuck off. Take your nastiness and condescension home and I hope it chokes you.
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1320381379067215875?s=20
5 already have plus 22 abstained, so it does look like a crushing defeat for no 10 if they continue this self inflicted ill thought out decision
Glad you get your eyes tested, the Barnard Castle branch of Specsavers no doubt..
Only when Hancock did his nut and got the man from Delmonte was capacity expanded, via copying the German approach of using public, private and academic labs.
One thing to be careful of is assuming that this election will pan out according to the same pattern as 2016, when there is evidence of massive change staring you in the face.
Another change is Biden's tendency to poll pretty well amongst seniors in 2020, in contrast to Clinton in 2016, something that's been well analysed when considering why he is polling so well in Florida. Maybe as vulnerable people they prefer a candidate who doesn't consider them expendible. Assuming that there will be large swathes of registered Democratic seniors defecting to Trump in 2020 seems a bit fanciful in the circumstances.
The point is it doesn’t seem ultimately to have made a vast amount of difference.
And you are never going to believe it, it has exactly the same demographics as the one from September.
Outstanding consistency
Yes, he might have some people advising him on this but I can easily believe he's savvy enough to work it out for himself and, even if not, shrewd enough to listen to those who are.
The trace aspect has always been oversold. I said way back, that it is just impossible to do this manually. Even at very low numbers you can't keep up.
The only people who successfully contact tracd are the South Koreans. They have both low levels and an automated system they spent 5 years building after SARS.
https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1320425285955833857?s=21
By now we have more than enough data to train a proper ML model with multiple variables that will spit out a decent range, yet we got 800-107k lives saved for the circuit breaker. Academics have not kept up with best practices in data modelling and now we're paying the price.
It’s much quieter out there now. Possibly an interesting story to tell in tomorrow’s news.
https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1320446999821508609?s=21
For example: Friend of mine, a lefty and strong Bernie Sanders supporter, was trying to find a Republican on his ballot he could vote for? At least one, just to prove - to himself and anyone he told about his decision - that he was a true (small i) independent who judged a candidate based on their qualifications NOT (merely) on basis of party.
This viewpoint - which (believe it or not) I share with my friend, and just about everyone else I know - is in fact the secret of electoral success for GOP WA Secretary of State Kim Wyman, who IF she can survive the anti-Trumpsky surge out here, will likely be the ONLY statewide elected Republican after this election.
She, like previous Republican SOSs, can beat Democratic challengers because large numbers of DEMOCRATS not just think that she's doing a good (or at least NOT a bad) job (which is supervising elections) BUT also because they want to vote for at least one GOP - and she's their best option.
I really hope things do become easier for you and your post does identify so many stress points
I assume you are either on or going on half term and hope this may help you
All the best
And how often can that be said?
Update/ the tanker now up to ten knots, the pursuing helicopter has gone in very low
For instance, I believe Deep Mind hired about 300 PhDs alone over the past 3 years.
Even discarding this, the trend has persisted for several days, namely the Democrat lead by cut by around 2pp per day. It is now under 11pc. To give some context, 9 days ago it was 27pc. Even if this slows, the chances are in registration, the two sides will be near parity by Election Day.
Just more reason to vote early if possible - and more reason for candidates and parties to benefit if & when their followers do so.
Cameron would have closed this down by Friday last week, and amended the narrative by pushing the issue onto his turf. He got criticised for being an "essay crisis" PM for that but at least he recognised a crisis when he saw one, and actually wrote the essay and got it in on time. He'd have learnt lessons from it on how to avoid it again.
Boris simply can't be arsed. He doesn't do his red boxes. He doesn't think even one step ahead and just lets events happen. Meanwhile various backbenches and civil servants either stick to the Government's original message or try and triangulate with the developing political arguments, risking them looking stupid and foolish as things develop (and ultimately) change.
Eventually when things spiral out of control Boris realises he has no choice but to backpedal. By that stage he's surrendered all initiative and looks like he's reacting to events rather than shaping them, because he is.
There's a reason Max Hastings, Michael Howard, David Cameron and all the mayoral deputies who used to work for him thought he was useless - because he is.
Our academic and pharmaceuticals are world class though, I agree.
If he manages that, it would be another big blow to established thinking - I don't know a GOTV campaign that wouldn't love to have 2/3rd to 3/4 (potentially more) "in the hutch".
Also just think about the models output for a moment. The upper end is 100k lives SAVED by the end of the year....not even 100k deaths, but saved lives vs no 2 week lockdown. That would mean deaths would be occurring at an insane rate, totally unlike the first wave (despite better medical understanding etc etc etc).
I am going to guess they aren't delivering free meals?
And now is not one of those times.
And I would be very content for Cameron to be dealing with this
Then Cahaly pumps it out as another Trafalgar Group "poll".
This is all supposition - but it DOES fit the known facts (including TG's own vague "explanation" re: methodology) AND is certainly right in the Lee Atwater - Karl Rove (remember him?) wheelhouse.
7 detained
Given that uc was increased by 20£ a week in march and that most children that get fsm are from homes on uc then there should be evidence which you as an ex mp can access via your old colleagues showing this extra money caused a massive drop in the number of malnourished children.
As a supporter of labours new 15£ voucher policy I am sure you will have no issue showing us this evidence as proof the latest throw money at it wheeze will make a difference.
I will wait patiently but won't hold my breath as if there was any evidence it helped no doubt no 10 would already have retorted with "We already increased money to families on uc and that reduced the number of malnourished children by 50%"
https://twitter.com/LOS_Fisher/status/1320455034874826754
The tanker has slowed, one of the lifeboats is alongside.
Apparently seven stowaways on board. Suggestion is that the SBS based at Poole may just have gone in; either the helicopter I saw go in low or one of the pursuing boats.
Almost certainly correct.
Vessel was in ballast with no oil
He deserves our thanks.