What makes the Texas battle intriguing is the historic polling understatement of the Democrats in th

not_on_fire said:

Nigelb said:

.

not_on_fire said:

Mysticrose said:

not_on_fire said:

Biden winning Texas feels like a bit of a reach TBH. Georgia feels more realistic

It's not about 'feel' though. This is about using your head, studying the polls, reading on the ground. The signs for Biden in Texas are there for anyone who studies them.

I am 75% + certain that Biden will take Texas at presidential level. Not the Senate though in this state.

Sorry - by “feel” I mean on the basis of the polling evidence. The polls are on a knife and edge and for Biden to win everything has to go perfectly both for turnout and persuading enough voters to switch sides. Given all the hurdles the GOP have been throwing in the Democrats way, I just don’t see it.

How good is the state level polling going to be, though ?
It's a huge state, and demographic and electoral roll changes have been large.

Polling in Texas has historically been very accurate - though we are probably in a higher turnout environment than usual for there. In 2018 the polls were near spot on.

Thanks.

Philip_Thompson said:

Foxy said:

Mysticrose said:

It's not just Trump who will be up a creek without a paddle from Nov 3rd to inauguration.

If Biden and the Dems sweep to power, as I am now certain of, then it leaves Boris, Cummings and Farage increasingly isolated. Neither allies to the west nor east. Perhaps we'll open a trade deal with Nigeria?

Nigeria has the biggest population and economy of Africa. With 21st century demographics it is going to be increasingly important on the world stage.

Having a bit of trouble with cops shooting people at the moment, during protests about police brutality.

So like America then?

Much the same problem, and not to minimise the difficulties policing in a place like Lagos.

The understated issue in BLM protests is class, on top of race. WWC youths also get a hard time, and policing has always taken a dim view of "working class entrepreneurs".

OnlyLivingBoy said:

TOPPING said:

Stocky said:

Mysticrose said:

Stocky: Largely white Brits I take it, rather than migrant workers?

Probably so, but not necessarily. I`d like to hear more from @theProle on this.

Agree it was great insight into a demographic that 75% of PB contributors have no association with on that level.

It's interesting how this kind of breathless reportage from the building sites of Britain is dissected with such anthropological excitement on PB. I mean, are these people really so unknown to people here? I move in pretty bourgeois circles these days, perhaps even the global elite, but I went to a comprehensive school and have done a fair amount of low paid work in the past, and the fact that a lot of working class blokes don't like the EU, or anything vaguely foreign, or indeed have a low opinion of "political correctness gone mad" is hardly news to me.

Nor me, who works with a lot of working class people, of all ethnicities, albeit in a health care setting.

There was a big banner over one of the bridges across the central motorway in Newcastle yesterday saying "PLAN-DEMIC". Very funny.

Mysticrose said:

IanB2 said:

edmundintokyo said:

Roy_G_Biv said:

edmundintokyo said:

eristdoof said:

alex_ said:

Nov 3rd to Jan 20th is going to be an “interesting” period. There must be a non trivial chance that Pence is President for a chunk of it.

Depends what you mean by non trivial, but yes I think you're right. There are two routes to this. The first is Trump refuses to accept an election defeat when the rest of the GOP in Washington do accept it, and to prevent a massive constitutional shitfest they invoke the 25th amendment. The second possibility is that Trump accept defeat but does not want to participate in the hand over phase, not being able to work with the enemy following a defeat. This second one has to be tempered, by what Executive Orders Trump wants to push through in that time.

There is a third option, that Trump genuinely loses it, is unable to govern and the 25th is used to remove him. I think though that this option is very unlikely.

I think those are all vanishingly unlikely, but there are two more: Bad health (physical, mental or both) and handing over to Pence for the last week or so because it's not totally clear that you can pardon yourself.

Option six: Trump flees to Russia to avoid prosecution

Right but he can leave that to his last day, there's no need to hand over any power before he has to.

Helicopter from the roof of the White House....

I said I wouldn't comment again but, oh wow, that brought back such a viscerally powerful memory. I'm just old enough to remember that evacuation from Saigon.

An incredible moment of history.

And I was thinking of Ceaucescu.

Roy_G_Biv said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

noneoftheabove said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1318805466995097600

I really do wonder if these types of quotes are real or just made up by the journalist. "Tory Official 2" - how does anyone know what they did or did not say?

I expect there is some truth in it but listening to 5 live this morning the nuance was that Greater Manchester settlement is approx £29 per head which is the same as Liverpool and Lancashire.

To be honest Burnham was coming under a lot of criticism and Burley on Sky was critical in an interview with a Greater Manchester councillor

I have no doubt Burnham is popular in Greater Manchester and I would expect to see crossover in the polls

However, I have faith in Rishi in getting the balance correct but he is not helped by Boris who is so much out of his depth and their comms is dreadful

You really love Sunak, don't you?

Respect him, yes

https://twitter.com/BrunoBrussels/status/1318819826018734081?s=20
https://twitter.com/BrunoBrussels/status/1318820893158744065?s=20
https://twitter.com/nickgutteridge/status/1318821891369480194?s=20

OnlyLivingBoy said:

TOPPING said:

Stocky said:

Mysticrose said:

Stocky: Largely white Brits I take it, rather than migrant workers?

Probably so, but not necessarily. I`d like to hear more from @theProle on this.

Agree it was great insight into a demographic that 75% of PB contributors have no association with on that level.

It's interesting how this kind of breathless reportage from the building sites of Britain is dissected with such anthropological excitement on PB. I mean, are these people really so unknown to people here? I move in pretty bourgeois circles these days, perhaps even the global elite, but I went to a comprehensive school and have done a fair amount of low paid work in the past, and the fact that a lot of working class blokes don't like the EU, or anything vaguely foreign, or indeed have a low opinion of "political correctness gone mad" is hardly news to me.

You have just explained the reason a current view of this is interesting (I wouldn't call it breathless, the description). You say you were a salt of the earth, comprehensive-schooled type but again as you yourself say - now look at you. You simply don't mix with people on building sites any more. And that is probably true of 75% of PB contributors.

When they (we) were younger we mixed with everyone and anyone. But as we grow older we stratify into our socio-economic groups.

Hence the view from the current coalface is interesting.

Foxy said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

TOPPING said:

Stocky said:

Mysticrose said:

Stocky: Largely white Brits I take it, rather than migrant workers?

Probably so, but not necessarily. I`d like to hear more from @theProle on this.

Agree it was great insight into a demographic that 75% of PB contributors have no association with on that level.

It's interesting how this kind of breathless reportage from the building sites of Britain is dissected with such anthropological excitement on PB. I mean, are these people really so unknown to people here? I move in pretty bourgeois circles these days, perhaps even the global elite, but I went to a comprehensive school and have done a fair amount of low paid work in the past, and the fact that a lot of working class blokes don't like the EU, or anything vaguely foreign, or indeed have a low opinion of "political correctness gone mad" is hardly news to me.

Nor me, who works with a lot of working class people, of all ethnicities, albeit in a health care setting.

Yes because I'm sure that all the healthcare people you work with (are boss of?) tell you what they are really thinking.

Head down to Tubes of a Saturday night when you can again and make some friends there would be more insightful.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

noneoftheabove said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1318805466995097600

I really do wonder if these types of quotes are real or just made up by the journalist. "Tory Official 2" - how does anyone know what they did or did not say?

I expect there is some truth in it but listening to 5 live this morning the nuance was that Greater Manchester settlement is approx £29 per head which is the same as Liverpool and Lancashire.

To be honest Burnham was coming under a lot of criticism and Burley on Sky was critical in an interview with a Greater Manchester councillor

I have no doubt Burnham is popular in Greater Manchester and I would expect to see crossover in the polls

However, I have faith in Rishi in getting the balance correct but he is not helped by Boris who is so much out of his depth and their comms is dreadful

Lets assume you are right, and the Manchester settlement offer was fair, and the government plan is to dish out equal cash to each area that goes into tier 3.

If that is the case, why on earth are they individually negotiating with each local council rather than just informing them they are going to tier 3 and you get £x to distribute locally. If the outcome will be the same regardless of the negotiation we are just wasting time here. Not just the time of the PM, his senior team, the mayor, the council leaders, the public following this nonsense, but most importantly wasting time fighting the pandemic.

It is hugely incompetent, a waste of time and energy, creating division for no reason and ultimately killing more people than necessary.

noneoftheabove said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

noneoftheabove said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1318805466995097600

I really do wonder if these types of quotes are real or just made up by the journalist. "Tory Official 2" - how does anyone know what they did or did not say?

I expect there is some truth in it but listening to 5 live this morning the nuance was that Greater Manchester settlement is approx £29 per head which is the same as Liverpool and Lancashire.

To be honest Burnham was coming under a lot of criticism and Burley on Sky was critical in an interview with a Greater Manchester councillor

I have no doubt Burnham is popular in Greater Manchester and I would expect to see crossover in the polls

However, I have faith in Rishi in getting the balance correct but he is not helped by Boris who is so much out of his depth and their comms is dreadful

Lets assume you are right, and the Manchester settlement offer was fair, and the government plan is to dish out equal cash to each area that goes into tier 3.

If that is the case, why on earth are they individually negotiating with each local council rather than just informing them they are going to tier 3 and you get £x to distribute locally. If the outcome will be the same regardless of the negotiation we are just wasting time here. Not just the time of the PM, his senior team, the mayor, the council leaders, the public following this nonsense, but most importantly wasting time fighting the pandemic.

It is hugely incompetent, a waste of time and energy, creating division for no reason and ultimately killing more people than necessary.

I agree 100%

Peter_the_Punter said:

On topic, I can't get overexcited about Texas. The idea of it turning blue always appears to me a bit of tease. I expect it will be close, but no cigar. I'd certainly want better odds than are currently available to be tempted in, but I have decent ECV spread positins so if Texas flips it's a big win for me anyway.

That's the view I took.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

noneoftheabove said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

noneoftheabove said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1318805466995097600

I really do wonder if these types of quotes are real or just made up by the journalist. "Tory Official 2" - how does anyone know what they did or did not say?

I expect there is some truth in it but listening to 5 live this morning the nuance was that Greater Manchester settlement is approx £29 per head which is the same as Liverpool and Lancashire.

To be honest Burnham was coming under a lot of criticism and Burley on Sky was critical in an interview with a Greater Manchester councillor

I have no doubt Burnham is popular in Greater Manchester and I would expect to see crossover in the polls

However, I have faith in Rishi in getting the balance correct but he is not helped by Boris who is so much out of his depth and their comms is dreadful

Lets assume you are right, and the Manchester settlement offer was fair, and the government plan is to dish out equal cash to each area that goes into tier 3.

If that is the case, why on earth are they individually negotiating with each local council rather than just informing them they are going to tier 3 and you get £x to distribute locally. If the outcome will be the same regardless of the negotiation we are just wasting time here. Not just the time of the PM, his senior team, the mayor, the council leaders, the public following this nonsense, but most importantly wasting time fighting the pandemic.

It is hugely incompetent, a waste of time and energy, creating division for no reason and ultimately killing more people than necessary.

I agree 100%

May I respectfully enquire why you keep voting for a party that has been hijacked by hugely incompetent people!?

YBarddCwsc said:

rottenborough said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1318805466995097600

And Johnson doesn't even have his house paper to help anymore. Telegraph long gone for him over covid.

Here's one comment from this morning:

"I’d argue there is currently more chance of perishing in a sheep-related incident than of succumbing to Covid in West Wales."

It is depressing to have to keep pointing out that health in Wales (and the other nations) is devolved.

Drakeford is responsible for shutting down West Wales.

I live in a remote part of West Wales, and the nearest COVID fatality is about 40 miles away. Yet, I can't travel even a few miles from my home.

Fortunately, after over 20 years of Labour guiding the economy of Wales, there is very little economic activity in West Wales to shut down.

So Drakeford's edict is less damaging than one might expect.

Exactly

turbotubbs said:

Stocky said:

Nigelb said:

Foxy said:

Snouts in the trough...

https://twitter.com/GeorgeMonbiot/status/1318792649340571650?s=19

It's a surprisingly decent article from Monbiot.
If he could tone down the outrage by 50%, and increase the factual analysis by 10% or so, it would actually be very good indeed.

I like Monbiot a lot. He`s a good writer - his book "Feral" is excellent. It was an article by Monbiot that persuaded me to vote remain in EU referendum, for environmental (on top of my already pragmatic) reasons. He too was wavering, he disliked the EU but admired their rewilding initiatives.

I'll be the first to own up to not reading the article, so feel free to criticise, but does he draw a comparison to other European countries that are seeing no huge second wave, such as France, Germany, Italy and Spain... Oh wait. Not sure that the UK government is totally to blame for this... maybe, just maybe, there are no easy solutions?

Germany is up to +7,000 cases daily, compared to the UK's +21,000.

The Economist now has the chance of a Trump win at 7% (was 8% yesterday):

https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president

I`m having to restrain myself from dumping yet more cash on Dems at the odds on offer.

Foxy said:

Snouts in the trough...

https://twitter.com/GeorgeMonbiot/status/1318792649340571650?s=19

'Dido, queen of carnage'. Monbiot back on form! A must read. Sometimes he gets carried away investigating the inside of ballbearings. This is real important and happening in broad daylight.

noneoftheabove said:

Foxy said:

IanB2 said:

The Triple Lock is going to deliver a 2.5% pension increase with September RPI at 0.5% and earnings flat on their back.

Surely Sunak will suspend it for this year at least. It would be insane not to do so.

Media view was that Treasury wanted to suspend it next year, when the expected rise is 10-20%, but No 10 overruled.

https://www.politicshome.com/news/article/number-10-claims-it-has-no-plans-to-end-pension-triple-lock-amid-reports-rishi-sunak-is-considering-scrapping-scheme

If they are pressing ahead, or trying to, with the double digit rise, then extremely unlikely to view the 2.5% as a problem at all. Nothing to do with which way pensioners vote of course.

Doesn't make sense. Why increase the State Pension by about £12bn over two years when you could bung that money to mates in the private sector? That's a whole Test and Trace scheme.

South Yorkshire agrees to go into tier 3

Same settlement as Liverpool and Lancashire (and Greater Manchester)

alex_ said:

The thing about privatisation in the public sector it’s a vicious circle. Many things ARE better run, or deliver better outcomes in the private sector. But generally where they exploit the strengths of the private sector - arising from free markets, and, importantly genuine competition or multiplicity of providers that means that success is rewarded BUT, importantly there are consequences of failure. This doesn’t necessarily mean that everything has to be competition based - but it does require that when a company fails there are alternatives to take its place.

But the type of privatisation which infects much of the current public sector isn’t like that. There are no consequences for failure for the large outsourcing companies like SERCO and CAPITA. Because there are no alternatives. The existing public sector staffing base is hollowed out and lacks the confidence or expertise to take back large scale projects of the type which have been being outsourced for 20 years. And so the same companies get appointed time and time again through a lack of alternatives. They long since abandoned any pretence at any genuine expertise, or claims to “efficient private sector strengths). About the only thing which distinguishes many of them from the actual public sector is need to demonstrate a profit and willingness to take on any project where these profits are pretty much guaranteed.

To reverse that cannot be done overnight or on the back of a change of Govt focus in the short term. It will take decades to recreate capacity and investment in the public sector, or a genuine reappraisal of how genuine private sector advantages can be accessed.

A very good post - of the type pb used to be renowned for.

I've been looking into this recently for a public sector client. They often outsource to be able to access private sector talent/expertise where they can't afford to compete in the market due to civil service pay grade restrictions and salary caps - basically, even if it costs more overall they can get the people they need through an alliancing/outsourcing arrangement - and it also helps them get around some union issues on employment and pensions. However, you are right: it's not a magic answer, there aren't many alternatives and there are limited consequences for failure as a result.

To get the public sector performing as well as the private sector it would have to operate like the private sector: paying market rates, with more flexible employment contracts, and take risks to innovate (which would include investing money in innovations and accepting the risk of failure).

The trouble is that the public sector is constrained by public policy and that's always been the sticking point.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

South Yorkshire agrees to go into tier 3

Same settlement as Liverpool and Lancashire (and Greater Manchester)

A magnificent victory for the "World King"?

Wulfrun_Phil said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

noneoftheabove said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1318805466995097600

I really do wonder if these types of quotes are real or just made up by the journalist. "Tory Official 2" - how does anyone know what they did or did not say?

I expect there is some truth in it but listening to 5 live this morning the nuance was that Greater Manchester settlement is approx £29 per head which is the same as Liverpool and Lancashire.

To be honest Burnham was coming under a lot of criticism and Burley on Sky was critical in an interview with a Greater Manchester councillor

I have no doubt Burnham is popular in Greater Manchester and I would expect to see crossover in the polls

However, I have faith in Rishi in getting the balance correct but he is not helped by Boris who is so much out of his depth and their comms is dreadful

The whole mess is basically because the Treasury is trying to do the second round of lockdown in the cheap. The idea was to share responsibility for their penny pinching with local politicians who could then be deemed to have endorsed the support on offer. As it's a row over money, or rather the lack of it, Sunak should be the one taking the responsibility.

And Dan Jarvis of South Yorkshire has just accepted the same deal without the animosity shown by Burnham

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/robin_bastard/status/1318801658462326785

A photo taken somewhere in the East Midlands. That and the sentiment bears out exactly the comment that I posted here last night:

"I don't think that Johnson has quite appreciated that this isn't just about Manchester. It's about the Conservatives being seen to be willing to stuff the North in general in its hour of need, and indeed anywhere north of Watford Gap. People in Liverpool and Lancashire won't be castigating Burnham for seeking a slightly better settlement than the paltry one their leaders got. No, they'll be cheering Burnham on. As are those in the North-East and Yorkshire who know they're next in the firing line, followed by the Midlands. This is a government that thinks nothing of throwing billions in lucrative contracts the way of any of the usual outsourcing suspects lining up to profit from coronavirus, in return for services that repeatedly fail to live up to their billing, yet which draws the line at settling for just a paltry £5m extra for Greater Manchester. Desperate people and businesses left to go hang. All the effort that went into winning seats in the Red Wall and promoting the fiction of Levelling Up is being undone before our eyes because Sunak can't find £5m.

We're due an Opinium poll this weekend."

YBarddCwsc said:

IanB2 said:

turbotubbs said:

Stocky said:

Nigelb said:

Foxy said:

Snouts in the trough...

https://twitter.com/GeorgeMonbiot/status/1318792649340571650?s=19

It's a surprisingly decent article from Monbiot.
If he could tone down the outrage by 50%, and increase the factual analysis by 10% or so, it would actually be very good indeed.

I like Monbiot a lot. He`s a good writer - his book "Feral" is excellent. It was an article by Monbiot that persuaded me to vote remain in EU referendum, for environmental (on top of my already pragmatic) reasons. He too was wavering, he disliked the EU but admired their rewilding initiatives.

I'll be the first to own up to not reading the article, so feel free to criticise, but does he draw a comparison to other European countries that are seeing no huge second wave, such as France, Germany, Italy and Spain... Oh wait. Not sure that the UK government is totally to blame for this... maybe, just maybe, there are no easy solutions?

Germany is up to +7,000 cases daily, compared to the UK's +21,000.

Germany of course has done well. Merkel gets an A

But, Johnson, Macron, Pérez-Castejón, Sturgeon, Drakeford are all getting Cs in my mark book.

Merkel is naturally a bit cautious and scientifically trained, both of which help.

It is not just down to good leadership. German's scientists have played a more coherent and consistent role than the UK's scientists. The Robert Koch Institute has been really outstanding.

There is a lot to learn for the UK, and its scientists, policy-makers and politicians.

The key is political leadership that knows enough science to test and challenge the advice given in a constructive way as opposed to jumping to every warning, no matter how inconsistent with everyone else's experience. Hunt would have been better for us, if not Merkel standard.

High rise cladding is becoming another issue for the government:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/business-54624159

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Wulfrun_Phil said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

noneoftheabove said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1318805466995097600

I really do wonder if these types of quotes are real or just made up by the journalist. "Tory Official 2" - how does anyone know what they did or did not say?

I expect there is some truth in it but listening to 5 live this morning the nuance was that Greater Manchester settlement is approx £29 per head which is the same as Liverpool and Lancashire.

To be honest Burnham was coming under a lot of criticism and Burley on Sky was critical in an interview with a Greater Manchester councillor

I have no doubt Burnham is popular in Greater Manchester and I would expect to see crossover in the polls

However, I have faith in Rishi in getting the balance correct but he is not helped by Boris who is so much out of his depth and their comms is dreadful

The whole mess is basically because the Treasury is trying to do the second round of lockdown in the cheap. The idea was to share responsibility for their penny pinching with local politicians who could then be deemed to have endorsed the support on offer. As it's a row over money, or rather the lack of it, Sunak should be the one taking the responsibility.

And Dan Jarvis of South Yorkshire has just accepted the same deal without the animosity shown by Burnham

Burnham Your new hate figure, must have been in this mornings email from CCHQ We will see similar from the usual suspects later today

Stocky said:

The Economist now has the chance of a Trump win at 7% (was 8% yesterday):

https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president

I`m having to restrain myself from dumping yet more cash on Dems at the odds on offer.

His chance of winning is higher than 7%

Nigelb said:

Foxy said:

Snouts in the trough...

https://twitter.com/GeorgeMonbiot/status/1318792649340571650?s=19

It's a surprisingly decent article from Monbiot.
If he could tone down the outrage by 50%, and increase the factual analysis by 10% or so, it would actually be very good indeed.

An excellent article from Monbiot overall, I would say. What is does highlight is the huge influence of McKinsey's, as the model all other elite management consultancies follow, that many companies have actually adapted to in order to meet its expectations without running contracts with it, and that has run huge numbers of government functions.

This largely unknown organisation to most people has had huge political and cultural influence over the last 40 years - it's high time its supposedly 'apolitical' influence was more widely understood.

IanB2 said:

turbotubbs said:

Stocky said:

Nigelb said:

Foxy said:

Snouts in the trough...

https://twitter.com/GeorgeMonbiot/status/1318792649340571650?s=19

It's a surprisingly decent article from Monbiot.
If he could tone down the outrage by 50%, and increase the factual analysis by 10% or so, it would actually be very good indeed.

I like Monbiot a lot. He`s a good writer - his book "Feral" is excellent. It was an article by Monbiot that persuaded me to vote remain in EU referendum, for environmental (on top of my already pragmatic) reasons. He too was wavering, he disliked the EU but admired their rewilding initiatives.

I'll be the first to own up to not reading the article, so feel free to criticise, but does he draw a comparison to other European countries that are seeing no huge second wave, such as France, Germany, Italy and Spain... Oh wait. Not sure that the UK government is totally to blame for this... maybe, just maybe, there are no easy solutions?

Germany is up to +7,000 cases daily, compared to the UK's +21,000.

As we were a few weeks ago. The wave is hitting lots of places. Just as we were weeks behind Spain. There is no magic formula if you live in western countries with our expectations of free will, and strive to keep the economy and peoples live going.

Roy_G_Biv said:

turbotubbs said:

Stocky said:

Nigelb said:

Foxy said:

Snouts in the trough...

https://twitter.com/GeorgeMonbiot/status/1318792649340571650?s=19

It's a surprisingly decent article from Monbiot.
If he could tone down the outrage by 50%, and increase the factual analysis by 10% or so, it would actually be very good indeed.

I like Monbiot a lot. He`s a good writer - his book "Feral" is excellent. It was an article by Monbiot that persuaded me to vote remain in EU referendum, for environmental (on top of my already pragmatic) reasons. He too was wavering, he disliked the EU but admired their rewilding initiatives.

I'll be the first to own up to not reading the article, so feel free to criticise, but does he draw a comparison to other European countries that are seeing no huge second wave, such as France, Germany, Italy and Spain... Oh wait. Not sure that the UK government is totally to blame for this... maybe, just maybe, there are no easy solutions?

Perhaps you should; the article is mostly about possible corruption in government contracts.
It appears, to me at least, that there is serious wrongdoing going on here that would merit investigation EVEN IF things were working as planned.
As someone else put it earlier, "snouts in the trough".

I will if I get a chance. My comment though is about the parochialism and myopia that sees the UK (well actually just England) as uniquely struggling in this. Its just not true.

YBarddCwsc said:

IanB2 said:

turbotubbs said:

Stocky said:

Nigelb said:

Foxy said:

Snouts in the trough...

https://twitter.com/GeorgeMonbiot/status/1318792649340571650?s=19

It's a surprisingly decent article from Monbiot.
If he could tone down the outrage by 50%, and increase the factual analysis by 10% or so, it would actually be very good indeed.

I like Monbiot a lot. He`s a good writer - his book "Feral" is excellent. It was an article by Monbiot that persuaded me to vote remain in EU referendum, for environmental (on top of my already pragmatic) reasons. He too was wavering, he disliked the EU but admired their rewilding initiatives.

I'll be the first to own up to not reading the article, so feel free to criticise, but does he draw a comparison to other European countries that are seeing no huge second wave, such as France, Germany, Italy and Spain... Oh wait. Not sure that the UK government is totally to blame for this... maybe, just maybe, there are no easy solutions?

Germany is up to +7,000 cases daily, compared to the UK's +21,000.

Germany of course has done well. Merkel gets an A

But, Johnson, Macron, Pérez-Castejón, Sturgeon, Drakeford are all getting Cs in my mark book.

Merkel is naturally a bit cautious and scientifically trained, both of which help.

It is not just down to good leadership. German's scientists have played a more coherent and consistent role than the UK's scientists. The Robert Koch Institute has been really outstanding.

There is a lot to learn for the UK, and its scientists, policy-makers and politicians.

Time will tell, but I suspect Drakeford's firebreak is the right thing for Wales.

If anything, he is perhaps too late in locking down. Welsh hospitalizations are >50% of peak.

YBarddCwsc said:

IanB2 said:

turbotubbs said:

Stocky said:

Nigelb said:

Foxy said:

Snouts in the trough...

https://twitter.com/GeorgeMonbiot/status/1318792649340571650?s=19

It's a surprisingly decent article from Monbiot.
If he could tone down the outrage by 50%, and increase the factual analysis by 10% or so, it would actually be very good indeed.

I like Monbiot a lot. He`s a good writer - his book "Feral" is excellent. It was an article by Monbiot that persuaded me to vote remain in EU referendum, for environmental (on top of my already pragmatic) reasons. He too was wavering, he disliked the EU but admired their rewilding initiatives.

I'll be the first to own up to not reading the article, so feel free to criticise, but does he draw a comparison to other European countries that are seeing no huge second wave, such as France, Germany, Italy and Spain... Oh wait. Not sure that the UK government is totally to blame for this... maybe, just maybe, there are no easy solutions?

Germany is up to +7,000 cases daily, compared to the UK's +21,000.

Germany of course has done well. Merkel gets an A

But, Johnson, Macron, Pérez-Castejón, Sturgeon, Drakeford are all getting Cs in my mark book.

Merkel is naturally a bit cautious and scientifically trained, both of which help.

It is not just down to good leadership. German's scientists have played a more coherent and consistent role than the UK's scientists. The Robert Koch Institute has been really outstanding.

There is a lot to learn for the UK, and its scientists, policy-makers and politicians.

In case thisarticle from Monday was missed. Here is a good summary from Karl Lauterbach why Germany has coped relativey well so far. He is an SPD MP and an epidemiologist, but has no government position. Well worth reading.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/19/germany-covid-second-wave-virus

Foxy said:

Roy_G_Biv said:

Foxy said:

Mysticrose said:

It's not just Trump who will be up a creek without a paddle from Nov 3rd to inauguration.

If Biden and the Dems sweep to power, as I am now certain of, then it leaves Boris, Cummings and Farage increasingly isolated. Neither allies to the west nor east. Perhaps we'll open a trade deal with Nigeria?

Nigeria has the biggest population and economy of Africa. With 21st century demographics it is going to be increasingly important on the world stage.

Having a bit of trouble with cops shooting people at the moment, during protests about police brutality.

Nigeria's economy is large BECAUSE of its large population. But its GDP per capita is in the toilet. An awful lot of Nigerians don't have anything approaching middle-class levels of disposable income.
For us to compete in that kind of market we'd have to be in the business of cheap manufacture of life's basics. I do not think that is playing the strengths of the UK's key industries. Maybe in a few decades. If you think there's value in getting in at the ground level, that's fine, but its no paddle for the immediate creekage we're in.

I am quite pro-African, having travelled and taught there a fair bit. Unquestionably there are major problems with poverty etc, but also tremendous opportunities. Nigeria has 200 million people, and even if only 10% have middle class lifestyles, that is still a big number, and going to double in the next 30 years.

Nollywood films (a fair few on Netflix) are not gritty documentaries, but really very aspirational and consumerist. Watched by the poor, but show the direction of travel, much like India a few decades back.

Nigerian immigrants to the USA are the best educated of all immigrant ethnicities, for example:

https://www.chron.com/news/article/Data-show-Nigerians-the-most-educated-in-the-U-S-1600808.php

There are big divides of course, and the Muslim North more backward, but Nigeria has a great future, and not just as a diaspora.

I was having this discussion just the other day with some quite liberal people - they seemed stuck in the LIveAid view of Africa.

They seemed almost upset when I mentioned that some old friends of mine in telecoms were prototyping combined mobile phone masts with Starlink for backhaul. Looking at Africa for big sales.

The idea of that is a 5G mast that you put anywhere. It just needs power. The connection to the rest of the world is via Mr Musks satellites. So instantly a remote area gets mobile/internet.

The upset was on the lines of "but people need to eat first" - despite their liberal inclinations, they were completely unaware of the infrastructure revolution in many parts of Africa and it's effects on people's lives.

YBarddCwsc said:

DavidL said:

The key is political leadership that knows enough science to test and challenge the advice given in a constructive way as opposed to jumping to every warning, no matter how inconsistent with everyone else's experience. Hunt would have been better for us, if not Merkel standard.

100 per cent agreed. That is absolutely the key. It is knowing enough about scientific thinking to ask questions e.g., of the modellers.

There is no-one in the UK, Scottish or Welsh Govts who has the competence to do that (as far as I can see). Are there more scientists involved in German politics than the UK?

It is a pandemic that has cruelly exposed Johnson's well-known weaknesses.

Sturgeon has been better at communication (though not policy). Drakeford has been rather aimless but avoided too much blame so far.

Off topic

I suspect for both Sturgeon and Drakeford the case for their abject failure would be more easily made had Johnson not been substantially worse.

OnlyLivingBoy said:

TOPPING said:

Stocky said:

Mysticrose said:

Stocky: Largely white Brits I take it, rather than migrant workers?

Probably so, but not necessarily. I`d like to hear more from @theProle on this.

Agree it was great insight into a demographic that 75% of PB contributors have no association with on that level.

It's interesting how this kind of breathless reportage from the building sites of Britain is dissected with such anthropological excitement on PB. I mean, are these people really so unknown to people here? I move in pretty bourgeois circles these days, perhaps even the global elite, but I went to a comprehensive school and have done a fair amount of low paid work in the past, and the fact that a lot of working class blokes don't like the EU, or anything vaguely foreign, or indeed have a low opinion of "political correctness gone mad" is hardly news to me.

Maybe it isn't but recognising those people and their views isn't the same as engaging with or addressing them.

It isn't an answer to say it's not news, you know them well, shrug your shoulders, just say they're wrong and move on.

Stocky said:

Alistair said:

Stocky said:

The Economist now has the chance of a Trump win at 7% (was 8% yesterday):

https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president

I`m having to restrain myself from dumping yet more cash on Dems at the odds on offer.

His chance of winning is higher than 7%

538 go 13%. 15% feels about right to me.

Plural Vote considerably more cautious, with Trump at 26.3%. Virgina looks anomalous though:

http://www.pluralvote.com/article/2020-forecast/

YBarddCwsc said:

DavidL said:

The key is political leadership that knows enough science to test and challenge the advice given in a constructive way as opposed to jumping to every warning, no matter how inconsistent with everyone else's experience. Hunt would have been better for us, if not Merkel standard.

100 per cent agreed. That is absolutely the key. It is knowing enough about scientific thinking to ask questions e.g., of the modellers.

There is no-one in the UK, Scottish or Welsh Govts who has the competence to do that (as far as I can see). Are there more scientists involved in German politics than the UK?

It is a pandemic that has cruelly exposed Johnson's well-known weaknesses.

Sturgeon has been better at communication (though not policy). Drakeford has been rather aimless but avoided too much blame so far.

Not just on scientific matters. My own perception, informed by a few years at the top at local council level, is that the key to good political leadership (as far as internal management is concerned) is asking the right questions, knowing when to challenge, knowing what to check, and knowing what to measure.

There are plenty of capable people in government, central and local, but a key factor is that they are all specialists - representing specific local authority or government departments. Which means they bring to the table a partial (or perhaps more fairly, not fully balanced) view of an issue together with a host of internal politics and turf issues of which you, as a politician, will usually be unaware. As a politician you are often the only generalist in the room, and with a big cross-departmental issue the only person truly able to bring together, harmonise, weigh and reconcile all the conflicting factors in play.

Looking at the current mess with the new Coronavirus Regulations, this role isn't being done very well.

IanB2 said:

£ suddenly rising; is an EU deal in the offing?

Forgive me, but I think Forex watching isn't much more insightful than reading the tea leaves of Betfair exchange.

turbotubbs said:

YBarddCwsc said:

IanB2 said:

turbotubbs said:

Stocky said:

Nigelb said:

Foxy said:

Snouts in the trough...

https://twitter.com/GeorgeMonbiot/status/1318792649340571650?s=19

It's a surprisingly decent article from Monbiot.
If he could tone down the outrage by 50%, and increase the factual analysis by 10% or so, it would actually be very good indeed.

I like Monbiot a lot. He`s a good writer - his book "Feral" is excellent. It was an article by Monbiot that persuaded me to vote remain in EU referendum, for environmental (on top of my already pragmatic) reasons. He too was wavering, he disliked the EU but admired their rewilding initiatives.

I'll be the first to own up to not reading the article, so feel free to criticise, but does he draw a comparison to other European countries that are seeing no huge second wave, such as France, Germany, Italy and Spain... Oh wait. Not sure that the UK government is totally to blame for this... maybe, just maybe, there are no easy solutions?

Germany is up to +7,000 cases daily, compared to the UK's +21,000.

Germany of course has done well. Merkel gets an A

But, Johnson, Macron, Pérez-Castejón, Sturgeon, Drakeford are all getting Cs in my mark book.

Merkel is naturally a bit cautious and scientifically trained, both of which help.

It is not just down to good leadership. German's scientists have played a more coherent and consistent role than the UK's scientists. The Robert Koch Institute has been really outstanding.

There is a lot to learn for the UK, and its scientists, policy-makers and politicians.

Always happy to learn from others. Maybe lets wait until the whole pandemic has plated out before awarding the prizes? Spurs were 3-0 up on sunday, ended 3-3. Crude metaphor, but we are seeing some countries that did better on the first wave, doing worse now.

Each national government is operating under its own unique set of social norms and political realities. For example Spain has a minority coalition government, set amongst strong autonomous communities, coupled with a Mediterranean culture based on fiestas, late night socializing etc. all very different to say Sweden so the concept of who did better and Willy waving league tables is plain stupid, if there are lessons to be learnt or solutions available then share them for the common good rather than have a pissing competition.

YBarddCwsc said:

rkrkrk said:

Time will tell, but I suspect Drakeford's firebreak is the right thing for Wales.

If anything, he is perhaps too late in locking down. Welsh hospitalizations are >50% of peak.

Of course, 2/3rd Wales' population was already close to lockdown before the firebreak.

The main changes that have occurred with the firebreak are in mid and West Wales.

The main people inconvenienced are English tourists trying to take half-term holidays, who will now be chased away at the border by the police.

So, Mark's policy is popular in West Wales.

Though obviously we would prefer the border police to have sharp pronged pitchforks and big baseball bats

Looking at the latest interactive map:

https://coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map

Wales doesnt seem that bad in comparison with the worse areas of England

Malmesbury said:

Foxy said:

Roy_G_Biv said:

Foxy said:

Mysticrose said:

It's not just Trump who will be up a creek without a paddle from Nov 3rd to inauguration.

If Biden and the Dems sweep to power, as I am now certain of, then it leaves Boris, Cummings and Farage increasingly isolated. Neither allies to the west nor east. Perhaps we'll open a trade deal with Nigeria?

Nigeria has the biggest population and economy of Africa. With 21st century demographics it is going to be increasingly important on the world stage.

Having a bit of trouble with cops shooting people at the moment, during protests about police brutality.

Nigeria's economy is large BECAUSE of its large population. But its GDP per capita is in the toilet. An awful lot of Nigerians don't have anything approaching middle-class levels of disposable income.
For us to compete in that kind of market we'd have to be in the business of cheap manufacture of life's basics. I do not think that is playing the strengths of the UK's key industries. Maybe in a few decades. If you think there's value in getting in at the ground level, that's fine, but its no paddle for the immediate creekage we're in.

I am quite pro-African, having travelled and taught there a fair bit. Unquestionably there are major problems with poverty etc, but also tremendous opportunities. Nigeria has 200 million people, and even if only 10% have middle class lifestyles, that is still a big number, and going to double in the next 30 years.

Nollywood films (a fair few on Netflix) are not gritty documentaries, but really very aspirational and consumerist. Watched by the poor, but show the direction of travel, much like India a few decades back.

Nigerian immigrants to the USA are the best educated of all immigrant ethnicities, for example:

https://www.chron.com/news/article/Data-show-Nigerians-the-most-educated-in-the-U-S-1600808.php

There are big divides of course, and the Muslim North more backward, but Nigeria has a great future, and not just as a diaspora.

I was having this discussion just the other day with some quite liberal people - they seemed stuck in the LIveAid view of Africa.

They seemed almost upset when I mentioned that some old friends of mine in telecoms were prototyping combined mobile phone masts with Starlink for backhaul. Looking at Africa for big sales.

The idea of that is a 5G mast that you put anywhere. It just needs power. The connection to the rest of the world is via Mr Musks satellites. So instantly a remote area gets mobile/internet.

The upset was on the lines of "but people need to eat first" - despite their liberal inclinations, they were completely unaware of the infrastructure revolution in many parts of Africa and it's effects on people's lives.

The mobile telecomms market in Africa is incredibly dynamic, allowing a leap almost directly from a cash economy to electronic money, and banking. My Malawian friends are more sophisticated with this than my English ones.

The poverty in Africa is huge, but that is a long, long way from the whole story, and anyone who has passed through an African Market cannot doubt the entrepreneurial culture!

Richard_Nabavi said:

alex_ said:

...
There are no consequences for failure for the large outsourcing companies like SERCO and CAPITA. ...

Sorry, but that is total nonsense. Both of them have got into big financial trouble in the past as a result of losses on public sector contracts, as a cursory look at their financial histories shows. So has Interserve, so has Keir, so has Biffa. It's a total myth that these are risk-free for the companies concerned.

I appreciate that Richard. Perhaps i didn't quite express it properly. There is of course the potential for financial failure. But there are very little consequences for performance failure. Which is what primarily matters to the public sector. And when these massive companies fail completely they it may cost them money. But be under no illusion that it costs the public sector millions as well. Because there is very little to replace them.

Foxy said:

TOPPING said:

Foxy said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

TOPPING said:

Stocky said:

Mysticrose said:

Stocky: Largely white Brits I take it, rather than migrant workers?

Probably so, but not necessarily. I`d like to hear more from @theProle on this.

Agree it was great insight into a demographic that 75% of PB contributors have no association with on that level.

It's interesting how this kind of breathless reportage from the building sites of Britain is dissected with such anthropological excitement on PB. I mean, are these people really so unknown to people here? I move in pretty bourgeois circles these days, perhaps even the global elite, but I went to a comprehensive school and have done a fair amount of low paid work in the past, and the fact that a lot of working class blokes don't like the EU, or anything vaguely foreign, or indeed have a low opinion of "political correctness gone mad" is hardly news to me.

Nor me, who works with a lot of working class people, of all ethnicities, albeit in a health care setting.

Yes because I'm sure that all the healthcare people you work with (are boss of?) tell you what they are really thinking.

Head down to Tubes of a Saturday night when you can again and make some friends there would be more insightful.

Yes, they often do say what they are thinking.

Healthcare is a lot like the military, in that between episodes of frantic activity, there are long periods waiting for things to happen. Eavesdropping in our staff room is as illuminating as on a building site, albeit a lot more female and in Leicester multi ethnic.

I have been working with my receptionist for decades, and we know each other well. She is no shrinking violet in letting her opinions known. It was her stories of her Windrush generation parents that opened my eyes to it not being a few unfortunate folk in London at the sharp end.

You are obviously a great white, older, male boss that they feel they can open up to. Well done.

Meanwhile, talking about frantic activity (you are a GP, right?) I am simultaneously watching The Good Doctor and the new BBC series "Surgeon".

Have you seen either - there's some frantic activity and the interesting thing is that in TGD they always have a patient on the operating table who "crashes", the monitors go red and then more often than not they revive them, which I put down to dramatic effect. But in Surgeons exactly the same thing happened!!

Or we can discuss it all at Tubes when it's open again.