Undefined discussion subject.

HYUFD said:

Anabobazina said:

@HYUFD
What is your current EC forecast?

Trump 275 Biden 263 as of tonight, Biden picking up Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and NE02 and winning the national popular vote but Trump holding the rest of his 2016 states and being re elected in the EC

LostPassword said:

rcs1000 said:

LostPassword said:

alex_ said:

If Trafalgar systematically take other polls and skew them to the Republicans/Trump by 6%, and last time the polls all had a systematic bias to the Democrats of 6% then last time they would have been very successful. If all the other pollsters have now updated their methodology to account for this bias then Trafalgar will look a bit stupid if they've based their assumptions on the same methodology.

Is that a serious suggestion? Is there any particular reason to suspect that's happening?

In principle opinion polling is one of the defences that a democracy has against an election being stolen by ballot-stuffing, fraudulent counts and similar means.

If a supposed polling company is intentionally producing poll results to be biased then the intention is to hide the blatant stealing of an election.

There's no evidence that Trafalgar is a real, commercial organisation.

It's not incorporated. It doesn't appear to have any employees or a business address. It claims on its PDFs to use a combination of calls and an on-line panel, yet there's no way to join the panel. It doesn't seem to have any customers (so where does the money come from to do these polls), and is dormant in between elections years. And it's run by a Republican operative.

That's certainly suspicious. Thanks to others for their comments.

Theuniondivvie said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

dixiedean said:

williamglenn said:

Trump still has some loyal voters.

https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1317156241190387716?s=21

Surprisingly LGBT friendly lot there.

May be a surprise to (elderly) PBers and others, but my guess is that most of the Putinists cavorting to "YMCA" are NOT aware that it was once (a couple of generations ago) a gay anthem.

For most people, YMCA is simply a fun old pop song from the days when disco was king.

M-A-G-A fitting well with the chorus seems to be the main reason it's been picked. Perhaps the cop/military/cowboy/construction worker/biker mix also appeals.

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

Trafalgar 2016

(Difference to actual result in brackets).

Colorado
Trump 44% (+1)
Clinton 45% (-3)

Florida
Trump 50% (+1)
Clinton 46% (-2)

Georgia
Trump 52% (+2)
Clinton 45% (-)

Michigan
Trump 49% (+1)
Clinton 47% (-1)

Nevada
Trump 50% (+4)
Clinton 45% (-3)

North Carolina
Trump 49% (-1)
Clinton 44% (-3)

Ohio
Trump 49% (-3)
Clinton 44% (-)

Pennsylvania
Trump 48% (-)
Clinton 47% (-1)

South Carolina
Trump 53% (-2)
Clinton 38% (-3)

Utah
Trump 40% (-6)
Clinton 30% (+2)

So all over the place really. Yes they may have got the winner right more often than not, but they certainly are not what you’d call “accurate”.

So Trafalgar correctly forecast the winner of every state in that list then, except Nevada.

The fact they also correctly forecast Clinton would win Colorado shows they are not just a pro Trump pollster in every swing state either

Yes I said that. However in no way can you call them an “accurate” pollster as they clearly are not.

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

Trafalgar 2016

(Difference to actual result in brackets).

Colorado
Trump 44% (+1)
Clinton 45% (-3)

Florida
Trump 50% (+1)
Clinton 46% (-2)

Georgia
Trump 52% (+2)
Clinton 45% (-)

Michigan
Trump 49% (+1)
Clinton 47% (-1)

Nevada
Trump 50% (+4)
Clinton 45% (-3)

North Carolina
Trump 49% (-1)
Clinton 44% (-3)

Ohio
Trump 49% (-3)
Clinton 44% (-)

Pennsylvania
Trump 48% (-)
Clinton 47% (-1)

South Carolina
Trump 53% (-2)
Clinton 38% (-3)

Utah
Trump 40% (-6)
Clinton 30% (+2)

So all over the place really. Yes they may have got the winner right more often than not, but they certainly are not what you’d call “accurate”.

So Trafalgar correctly forecast the winner of every state in that list then, except Nevada.

The fact they also correctly forecast Clinton would win Colorado shows they are not just a pro Trump pollster in every swing state either

They overstated Trump's relative position in Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and South Carolina.

But because they called the "not particularly swing" state of Colorado right, "they are not just a pro Trump pollster".

I actually allege more than that.

I don't believe they are a pollster at all.

Foxy said:

Carnyx said:

Carnyx said:

FPT - more on the Ellon result (and stressing also it's crap for the LDs and Labour, as one would imagine in a straight battle to the death between the SNP and the Tories in the Brexit and covid era):

http://ballotbox.scot/ellon-by-election-result

PS for HYUFD - the Tory vote went down about 10 percentage points. It is not a FPTP seat.

Looking at the results, it looks as if Tory toxicity overrides unionism in SLD and SLAB voters.

Doomed, the union is doomed...

dixiedean said:

Gallowgate said:

The leader of Gateshead Council is saying tonight that the North East may be put into Tier 3 next week.

That was the story in the Sun yesterday. On what grounds exactly?

Nigelb said:

(FPT) I’m looking forward to President Biden’s impeachment battle...

https://twitter.com/dantoujours/status/1316844679783223297

Gallowgate said:

dixiedean said:

Gallowgate said:

The leader of Gateshead Council is saying tonight that the North East may be put into Tier 3 next week.

That was the story in the Sun yesterday. On what grounds exactly?

https://www.facebook.com/martin.gannon.18/posts/4884042531607673

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigelb said:

(FPT) I’m looking forward to President Biden’s impeachment battle...

https://twitter.com/dantoujours/status/1316844679783223297

That's nothing, I once drove from Leeds to Devon, then to Liverpool to drop off my then girlfriend's phone which she had left in the cottage.

Nigelb said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigelb said:

(FPT) I’m looking forward to President Biden’s impeachment battle...

https://twitter.com/dantoujours/status/1316844679783223297

That's nothing, I once drove from Leeds to Devon, then to Liverpool to drop off my then girlfriend's phone which she had left in the cottage.

You realise you’ll now be subpoenaed ?

dixiedean said:

Theuniondivvie said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

dixiedean said:

williamglenn said:

Trump still has some loyal voters.

https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1317156241190387716?s=21

Surprisingly LGBT friendly lot there.

May be a surprise to (elderly) PBers and others, but my guess is that most of the Putinists cavorting to "YMCA" are NOT aware that it was once (a couple of generations ago) a gay anthem.

For most people, YMCA is simply a fun old pop song from the days when disco was king.

M-A-G-A fitting well with the chorus seems to be the main reason it's been picked. Perhaps the cop/military/cowboy/construction worker/biker mix also appeals.

What that mix got up to in their downtime less so.

Alistair said:

Nigelb said:

(FPT) I’m looking forward to President Biden’s impeachment battle...

https://twitter.com/dantoujours/status/1316844679783223297

The bit I'm loving is where either Biden supplied a hard drive to the shop to get the data backed up and after failing to collect the hard drive still decided to register the warrenty card for the drive a week later orrrrr the repair shop threw in a hard disk that cost more than what was charged for the backup process as a freebie.

Either makes sense to me.

alex_ said:

Anyone think that there might be some Govt thinking that favours making the economic effect of Covid-19 as bad as possible (which people en masse don't seem to be blaming the Govt for) to hide the economic catastrophe of a no-deal brexit?

rcs1000 said:

Alistair said:

LostPassword said:

rcs1000 said:

LostPassword said:

alex_ said:

If Trafalgar systematically take other polls and skew them to the Republicans/Trump by 6%, and last time the polls all had a systematic bias to the Democrats of 6% then last time they would have been very successful. If all the other pollsters have now updated their methodology to account for this bias then Trafalgar will look a bit stupid if they've based their assumptions on the same methodology.

Is that a serious suggestion? Is there any particular reason to suspect that's happening?

In principle opinion polling is one of the defences that a democracy has against an election being stolen by ballot-stuffing, fraudulent counts and similar means.

If a supposed polling company is intentionally producing poll results to be biased then the intention is to hide the blatant stealing of an election.

There's no evidence that Trafalgar is a real, commercial organisation.

It's not incorporated. It doesn't appear to have any employees or a business address. It claims on its PDFs to use a combination of calls and an on-line panel, yet there's no way to join the panel. It doesn't seem to have any customers (so where does the money come from to do these polls), and is dormant in between elections years. And it's run by a Republican operative.

That's certainly suspicious. Thanks to others for their comments.

For balance I do think they do polling: only peeps genuinely running a crappy polling outfit would have the gall to put this on their website

The Trafalgar Group delivers its polling questionnaires utilizing a mix of six different methods:

Live callers
Integrated voice response
Text messages
Emails
Two other proprietary digital methods they don’t share publicly.

The last page of their PDFs claims they use a combination of "automated voice polling and an on-line panel".

So, which is it Trafalgar?

DougSeal said:

alex_ said:

LostPassword said:

alex_ said:

If Trafalgar systematically take other polls and skew them to the Republicans/Trump by 6%, and last time the polls all had a systematic bias to the Democrats of 6% then last time they would have been very successful. If all the other pollsters have now updated their methodology to account for this bias then Trafalgar will look a bit stupid if they've based their assumptions on the same methodology.

Is that a serious suggestion? Is there any particular reason to suspect that's happening?

In principle opinion polling is one of the defences that a democracy has against an election being stolen by ballot-stuffing, fraudulent counts and similar means.

If a supposed polling company is intentionally producing poll results to be biased then the intention is to hide the blatant stealing of an election.

They suggestion by others (not myself - i have no idea) on this thread is that Trafalgar is

1) Not a polling company and doesn't actually do any polls
2) Produces its "polls" by taking an average of everyone else's and adding 6% to the Trump/Republican percentage.

They essentially admit it but call it weighting.Trafalgar say, simplistically, that the Trump/Republican vote is understated by “shy Trumpers” (another favourite of @HYUFD ) so their methodology is to ask the individual how they think their neighbours will vote. If the respondent says the neighbours will vote a different way to them then they say they’re a “shy” (invariably Trump) voter. They are cagey about the precise methodology.

What most pollsters got wrong in the rust belt last time was (A) to fail to foresee that undecideds would break for Trump 6 to 1 and (B) not to find enough uneducated voters. As a result Trafalgar struck gold in 2 states by accident. This time (A) their are far fewer undecideds and (B) other pollsters have adjusted their methodology to weight more for education. If there is a systemic polling error this time, which there could well be, it is unlikely to be the same one as last time. People are fighting 2016 over again but it’s a different race with a very different dynamic - notably that the Democratic candidate is far more popular than the last on every measure.

I want to know what Trafalgar do when there is no election on. How do they make money between cycles and who commissions their other polls?

TheScreamingEagles said:

alex_ said:

Anyone think that there might be some Govt thinking that favours making the economic effect of Covid-19 as bad as possible (which people en masse don't seem to be blaming the Govt for) to hide the economic catastrophe of a no-deal brexit?

Nope, the medicines shortages alone caused by No Deal would be amplified a lot during a really bad pandemic.

Even if we weren't in the midst of a pandemic, the medicines shortages would lead to some avoidable deaths.

It's something the NHS Trusts are really worried about.

Theuniondivvie said:

dixiedean said:

Theuniondivvie said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

dixiedean said:

williamglenn said:

Trump still has some loyal voters.

https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1317156241190387716?s=21

Surprisingly LGBT friendly lot there.

May be a surprise to (elderly) PBers and others, but my guess is that most of the Putinists cavorting to "YMCA" are NOT aware that it was once (a couple of generations ago) a gay anthem.

For most people, YMCA is simply a fun old pop song from the days when disco was king.

M-A-G-A fitting well with the chorus seems to be the main reason it's been picked. Perhaps the cop/military/cowboy/construction worker/biker mix also appeals.

What that mix got up to in their downtime less so.

I'm sure they appreciate real men who know how to use their fists.

MaxPB said:

Based on national data using 5 days as the infectious time during the incubation period I can say we were at R=1.2 and London was at R=1.1 last week when using the week on week comparison (which is fair as it smooths out daily data), using modelled data the R is currently 1.1 nationally and 1.0 in London. I don't think we're out of the woods though. I can't be fucked to write a script to automate this process so I'll probably just do it sporadically.

Other interesting stats, the R peaked nationally at over 2 in the middle of September and tracks the start of school and then it goes up again around a week to ten days after the start of uni. It fell in between those two period and it looks like it's falling again.

Gallowgate said:

Can someone explain to me what the GOP have to gain by Trafalgar posting polls that favour them? Surely in this election they are helping the Dem GOTV by posting narrow Biden leads/Trump leads?

MrEd said:

Andy_JS said:

Alistair said:

Nigelb said:

(FPT) I’m looking forward to President Biden’s impeachment battle...

https://twitter.com/dantoujours/status/1316844679783223297

The bit I'm loving is where either Biden supplied a hard drive to the shop to get the data backed up and after failing to collect the hard drive still decided to register the warrenty card for the drive a week later orrrrr the repair shop threw in a hard disk that cost more than what was charged for the backup process as a freebie.

Either makes sense to me.

Whatever Hunter Biden has allegedly done, I fail to see what it has to do with Joe Biden.

It was a stupid thing of Twitter and Facebook to block the story because it has just fuelled it and kept it in the headlines.

It is also stupid of the Biden camp not to just issue a clear cut denial they ever met this Ukrainian if they are absolutely sure that he didn’t meet him. Saying it wasn’t in the official diary and then saying the official diary had long gaps just increases the questions.

The NY Post are continuing to hammer on this. For a story that apparently has many holes in it, the NYP definitely seem very keen to play double or quits

TheScreamingEagles said:

alex_ said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

alex_ said:

Anyone think that there might be some Govt thinking that favours making the economic effect of Covid-19 as bad as possible (which people en masse don't seem to be blaming the Govt for) to hide the economic catastrophe of a no-deal brexit?

Nope, the medicines shortages alone caused by No Deal would be amplified a lot during a really bad pandemic.

Even if we weren't in the midst of a pandemic, the medicines shortages would lead to some avoidable deaths.

It's something the NHS Trusts are really worried about.

You're assuming their motivation is to limit economic and health damage. As opposed to load as much damage as possible on Covid and not Brexit. Regardless of the actual level of damage itself.

I believe the government is breathtakingly incompetent, not malevolent.

Perhaps I'm just naive.

Peter_the_Punter said:

@rcs

Of course Robert, if you're suspicions about Trafalgar are correct one would be justified in eliminating their results from all the polling averages. That would cause a significant increase in Biden's poll lead.

I really am beginning to wonder what is holding up Trump's price. It is ressembling the Leadsome puzzle, for those that remember the strange behaviour of her price during the Tory Leadership contest.

Quincel said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

@Quincel

And of course it is worth stating the obvious - any such polling error could just as easily be in favour of Biden as Trump.

Anyone for an underestimate of Shy-Bidens?

I've been pondering this for a while, and haven't gone back over the data to check, but I wonder if polling errors aren't more commonly in favour of Republicans. If so, I wonder if they aren't entirely polling error and partially the result of vote suppression meaning voters who intended to vote Democrat were more likely then Republicans to end up not voting due to long lines etc.

Like I say, I've not checked the numbers to even see if polling error isn't entirely random. So I may be barking up the wrong tree. Obama clearly outperformed in 2012, and as you say Biden would crush Trump if he did that again (and, perhaps more to the point, even a small Democrat overperformance may hand them 2-4 more Senators).

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

alex_ said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

alex_ said:

Anyone think that there might be some Govt thinking that favours making the economic effect of Covid-19 as bad as possible (which people en masse don't seem to be blaming the Govt for) to hide the economic catastrophe of a no-deal brexit?

Nope, the medicines shortages alone caused by No Deal would be amplified a lot during a really bad pandemic.

Even if we weren't in the midst of a pandemic, the medicines shortages would lead to some avoidable deaths.

It's something the NHS Trusts are really worried about.

You're assuming their motivation is to limit economic and health damage. As opposed to load as much damage as possible on Covid and not Brexit. Regardless of the actual level of damage itself.

I believe the government is breathtakingly incompetent, not malevolent.

Perhaps I'm just naive.

Throwing London to the dogs so that the North doesn't feel bad seems malevolent to me.

Andy_JS said:

Election night in New Zealand should be interesting. I've never watched one from there before. I don't even know whether they have declarations or not.

TheScreamingEagles said:

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

alex_ said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

alex_ said:

Anyone think that there might be some Govt thinking that favours making the economic effect of Covid-19 as bad as possible (which people en masse don't seem to be blaming the Govt for) to hide the economic catastrophe of a no-deal brexit?

Nope, the medicines shortages alone caused by No Deal would be amplified a lot during a really bad pandemic.

Even if we weren't in the midst of a pandemic, the medicines shortages would lead to some avoidable deaths.

It's something the NHS Trusts are really worried about.

You're assuming their motivation is to limit economic and health damage. As opposed to load as much damage as possible on Covid and not Brexit. Regardless of the actual level of damage itself.

I believe the government is breathtakingly incompetent, not malevolent.

Perhaps I'm just naive.

Throwing London to the dogs so that the North doesn't feel bad seems malevolent to me.

Wrong timeline, the North was thrown to the dogs in the summer to let London out of lockdown in the summer.

Pulpstar said:

Really strong poll for Biden here, The Hill leans slightly GOP.

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1317194591435657217

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

alex_ said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

alex_ said:

Anyone think that there might be some Govt thinking that favours making the economic effect of Covid-19 as bad as possible (which people en masse don't seem to be blaming the Govt for) to hide the economic catastrophe of a no-deal brexit?

Nope, the medicines shortages alone caused by No Deal would be amplified a lot during a really bad pandemic.

Even if we weren't in the midst of a pandemic, the medicines shortages would lead to some avoidable deaths.

It's something the NHS Trusts are really worried about.

You're assuming their motivation is to limit economic and health damage. As opposed to load as much damage as possible on Covid and not Brexit. Regardless of the actual level of damage itself.

I believe the government is breathtakingly incompetent, not malevolent.

Perhaps I'm just naive.

Throwing London to the dogs so that the North doesn't feel bad seems malevolent to me.

HYUFD said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

@rcs

Of course Robert, if you're suspicions about Trafalgar are correct one would be justified in eliminating their results from all the polling averages. That would cause a significant increase in Biden's poll lead.

I really am beginning to wonder what is holding up Trump's price. It is ressembling the Leadsome puzzle, for those that remember the strange behaviour of her price during the Tory Leadership contest.

On what basis would you possibly exclude the only pollster to correctly get Michigan and Pennsylvania right in 2016? I am astonished so many on here have still learnt nothing from 2016

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/ProjectLincoln/status/1317198837715324928

HYUFD said:

Pulpstar said:

HYUFD said:

Trump does not even necessarily need to come from behind now, according to some state polls from key swing states in the last few days he is ahead in enough swing states for a narrow re election, even if he is likely to lose the national popular vote again.

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1317099245346955270?s=20
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1316403256520777728?s=20

People should know this about Trafalgar's history - Robert Cahaly is the face of the company on twitter.
https://www.wistv.com/story/13429729/gop-consultant-to-face-sled-arrest-for-illegal-robocalls/
41-year-old Robert Cahaly faces charges that he purchased, then disseminated computer-generated calls from an automatically dialed announcing service to potential South Carolina voters on September 23.

According to SLED, the calls were political in nature and were allegedly made without properly disclosing the identity of the originating party to the call recipients, which is in violation of SC Code 16-17-446.

We previously reported that the Ken Ard's campaign manager was accused of robocalling and that there was a warrant issued for his arrest. In fact, the campaign manager is not accused of robocalling and is not in trouble with the law.

SLED has determined that the calls were made through a Richland County landline telephone number owned by Gadsden and Greene Strategies, a company owned by Cahaly.

The calls, according to SLED, were allegedly made to numerous voters in House Districts 26 (Greenville and Pickens), 78 (Richland County), 79 (Kershaw and Richland Counties), 98 (Dorchester County), 108 (Charleston and Georgetown Counties) and 115 (James Island and Folly Beach).

Who cares? They forecast Trump would win Michigan and Florida right in 2016 and that is all that matters

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Alistair said:

LostPassword said:

rcs1000 said:

LostPassword said:

alex_ said:

If Trafalgar systematically take other polls and skew them to the Republicans/Trump by 6%, and last time the polls all had a systematic bias to the Democrats of 6% then last time they would have been very successful. If all the other pollsters have now updated their methodology to account for this bias then Trafalgar will look a bit stupid if they've based their assumptions on the same methodology.

Is that a serious suggestion? Is there any particular reason to suspect that's happening?

In principle opinion polling is one of the defences that a democracy has against an election being stolen by ballot-stuffing, fraudulent counts and similar means.

If a supposed polling company is intentionally producing poll results to be biased then the intention is to hide the blatant stealing of an election.

There's no evidence that Trafalgar is a real, commercial organisation.

It's not incorporated. It doesn't appear to have any employees or a business address. It claims on its PDFs to use a combination of calls and an on-line panel, yet there's no way to join the panel. It doesn't seem to have any customers (so where does the money come from to do these polls), and is dormant in between elections years. And it's run by a Republican operative.

That's certainly suspicious. Thanks to others for their comments.

For balance I do think they do polling: only peeps genuinely running a crappy polling outfit would have the gall to put this on their website

The Trafalgar Group delivers its polling questionnaires utilizing a mix of six different methods:

Live callers
Integrated voice response
Text messages
Emails
Two other proprietary digital methods they don’t share publicly.

You are assuming that they are CURRENTLY using all of these methods. When it could be that they've used (how legitimately who knows?) them at some point in the PAST.

IMHO Trafalgar is just a robo-call chop-shop, that hit the jackpot in 2016 thanks to less-than-stellar polling (the real kind) plus the criminal incompetence of Robbie Mook ("a mook by name and nature) . Caveat emptor!

Mango said:

HYUFD said:

Pulpstar said:

HYUFD said:

Trump does not even necessarily need to come from behind now, according to some state polls from key swing states in the last few days he is ahead in enough swing states for a narrow re election, even if he is likely to lose the national popular vote again.

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1317099245346955270?s=20
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1316403256520777728?s=20

People should know this about Trafalgar's history - Robert Cahaly is the face of the company on twitter.
https://www.wistv.com/story/13429729/gop-consultant-to-face-sled-arrest-for-illegal-robocalls/
41-year-old Robert Cahaly faces charges that he purchased, then disseminated computer-generated calls from an automatically dialed announcing service to potential South Carolina voters on September 23.

According to SLED, the calls were political in nature and were allegedly made without properly disclosing the identity of the originating party to the call recipients, which is in violation of SC Code 16-17-446.

We previously reported that the Ken Ard's campaign manager was accused of robocalling and that there was a warrant issued for his arrest. In fact, the campaign manager is not accused of robocalling and is not in trouble with the law.

SLED has determined that the calls were made through a Richland County landline telephone number owned by Gadsden and Greene Strategies, a company owned by Cahaly.

The calls, according to SLED, were allegedly made to numerous voters in House Districts 26 (Greenville and Pickens), 78 (Richland County), 79 (Kershaw and Richland Counties), 98 (Dorchester County), 108 (Charleston and Georgetown Counties) and 115 (James Island and Folly Beach).

Who cares? They forecast Trump would win Michigan and Florida right in 2016 and that is all that matters

I think you have stated your philosophy rather nicely there, and it is clear why you do not bet. If you ever start betting, please let me know.

Meanwhile you can hardly contain your excitement that your orange turdbucket might just scrape home for four more years of glorious One Nation Conservatism.

Quincel said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

@Quincel

And of course it is worth stating the obvious - any such polling error could just as easily be in favour of Biden as Trump.

Anyone for an underestimate of Shy-Bidens?

I've been pondering this for a while, and haven't gone back over the data to check, but I wonder if polling errors aren't more commonly in favour of Republicans. If so, I wonder if they aren't entirely polling error and partially the result of vote suppression meaning voters who intended to vote Democrat were more likely then Republicans to end up not voting due to long lines etc.

Like I say, I've not checked the numbers to even see if polling error isn't entirely random. So I may be barking up the wrong tree. Obama clearly outperformed in 2012, and as you say Biden would crush Trump if he did that again (and, perhaps more to the point, even a small Democrat overperformance may hand them 2-4 more Senators).