Of course Robert, if you're suspicions about Trafalgar are correct one would be justified in eliminating their results from all the polling averages. That would cause a significant increase in Biden's poll lead.
I really am beginning to wonder what is holding up Trump's price. It is ressembling the Leadsome puzzle, for those that remember the strange behaviour of her price during the Tory Leadership contest.
Personally I think we risk overthinking the market. The simplest answer is just that most punters aren't that well versed in the numbers and so on, and are being overly affected by 2016. That's my conclusion, anyway.
Yes, I agree. The polls are probably right. They usually are. It's fair enough to be cautious because of 2016, but not to be spooked by it.
Election night in New Zealand should be interesting. I've never watched one from there before. I don't even know whether they have declarations or not.
That's not good enough. I pay £0 a month to access this site, and I demand my money's worth.
Huh, I've been paying a monthly subscription to what I thought was PB Technical Services Enterprises for years. Now I need to find out who the hell I've been sending thousands of pounds to this whole time.
Of course Robert, if you're suspicions about Trafalgar are correct one would be justified in eliminating their results from all the polling averages. That would cause a significant increase in Biden's poll lead.
I really am beginning to wonder what is holding up Trump's price. It is ressembling the Leadsome puzzle, for those that remember the strange behaviour of her price during the Tory Leadership contest.
On what basis would you possibly exclude the only pollster to correctly get Michigan and Pennsylvania right in 2016? I am astonished so many on here have still learnt nothing from 2016
On the grounds that they don't show their workings and may well be entirely bogus, for the many reasons given here this evening.
Little old ladies sometimes get the winner of the Grand National using all sorts of weird and hilarious selection methods. Trafalgar's overall record is no great shakes. There is more than a suspicion they just got lucky with some of their 2016 results. They could easily dispel suspicions by publishing their cross-tables. They don't. As a punter, I'd have to be a right mug to trust they didn't just fluke it in 2016.
But go ahead and back Trump if you are so sure they have the magic touch. No law against it.
I've Tweeted to the guy who runs them, I've dropped him a text message, and called him.
(Bear in mind that there appears to only be one person at Trafalgar. Which doesn't actually exist as any thing more than a website.)
It's telling how many people seem to have been surprised by discovering that the face Trump presents to the world is actually who he is. It's not an act, it's not modulated at all.
The only act he's done is pretend to know about business and restrain himself from being batshit on The Apprentice.
It's telling how many people seem to have been surprised by discovering that the face Trump presents to the world is actually who he is. It's not an act, it's not modulated at all.
Edit: And that it is pathetic, as he notes, is more important than that it is enraging.
That likely because, as evidenced by that story, his enablers do quite the opposite.
If Trafalgar systematically take other polls and skew them to the Republicans/Trump by 6%, and last time the polls all had a systematic bias to the Democrats of 6% then last time they would have been very successful. If all the other pollsters have now updated their methodology to account for this bias then Trafalgar will look a bit stupid if they've based their assumptions on the same methodology.
Is that a serious suggestion? Is there any particular reason to suspect that's happening?
In principle opinion polling is one of the defences that a democracy has against an election being stolen by ballot-stuffing, fraudulent counts and similar means.
If a supposed polling company is intentionally producing poll results to be biased then the intention is to hide the blatant stealing of an election.
They suggestion by others (not myself - i have no idea) on this thread is that Trafalgar is
1) Not a polling company and doesn't actually do any polls 2) Produces its "polls" by taking an average of everyone else's and adding 6% to the Trump/Republican percentage.
They essentially admit it but call it weighting.Trafalgar say, simplistically, that the Trump/Republican vote is understated by “shy Trumpers” (another favourite of @HYUFD ) so their methodology is to ask the individual how they think their neighbours will vote. If the respondent says the neighbours will vote a different way to them then they say they’re a “shy” (invariably Trump) voter. They are cagey about the precise methodology.
What most pollsters got wrong in the rust belt last time was (A) to fail to foresee that undecideds would break for Trump 6 to 1 and (B) not to find enough uneducated voters. As a result Trafalgar struck gold in 2 states by accident. This time (A) their are far fewer undecideds and (B) other pollsters have adjusted their methodology to weight more for education. If there is a systemic polling error this time, which there could well be, it is unlikely to be the same one as last time. People are fighting 2016 over again but it’s a different race with a very different dynamic - notably that the Democratic candidate is far more popular than the last on every measure.
I want to know what Trafalgar do when there is no election on. How do they make money between cycles and who commissions their other polls?
Quite the remarkable turnaround having been the most popular party last time, edged out by coalition politics.
Even more remarkable, before Jacinda there were doubts Labour would ever win again.
Certainly shows why you seize your chance at power when you get the chance, even in a coalition arrangement. Sure, it can go poorly, but it can go very right.
For the first time since early August, the number of newly reported coronavirus infections in the United States on Thursday topped 60,000. More than 36,000 people are hospitalized nationally with covid-19, the disease caused by the virus, amid a long-feared autumnal rise of infections and serious illnesses.
This is not a regional crisis, but instead one that is intensifying almost everywhere in the country. Forty-four states and the District of Columbia have higher caseloads than in mid-September. The virus is spreading in rural communities in the heartland, far from the coastal cities hammered early in the pandemic.
This will get overturned at SCOTUS with the majority of Gorsuch, Barrett, Kavanaugh, Thomas and Alito
Rights need to be weighed against one another. No right is more important than the right to look like an insecure prat and intimidate people with your big old gun.
For the first time since early August, the number of newly reported coronavirus infections in the United States on Thursday topped 60,000. More than 36,000 people are hospitalized nationally with covid-19, the disease caused by the virus, amid a long-feared autumnal rise of infections and serious illnesses.
This is not a regional crisis, but instead one that is intensifying almost everywhere in the country. Forty-four states and the District of Columbia have higher caseloads than in mid-September. The virus is spreading in rural communities in the heartland, far from the coastal cities hammered early in the pandemic.
If Trafalgar systematically take other polls and skew them to the Republicans/Trump by 6%, and last time the polls all had a systematic bias to the Democrats of 6% then last time they would have been very successful. If all the other pollsters have now updated their methodology to account for this bias then Trafalgar will look a bit stupid if they've based their assumptions on the same methodology.
Is that a serious suggestion? Is there any particular reason to suspect that's happening?
In principle opinion polling is one of the defences that a democracy has against an election being stolen by ballot-stuffing, fraudulent counts and similar means.
If a supposed polling company is intentionally producing poll results to be biased then the intention is to hide the blatant stealing of an election.
There's no evidence that Trafalgar is a real, commercial organisation.
It's not incorporated. It doesn't appear to have any employees or a business address. It claims on its PDFs to use a combination of calls and an on-line panel, yet there's no way to join the panel. It doesn't seem to have any customers (so where does the money come from to do these polls), and is dormant in between elections years. And it's run by a Republican operative.
That's certainly suspicious. Thanks to others for their comments.
For balance I do think they do polling: only peeps genuinely running a crappy polling outfit would have the gall to put this on their website
The Trafalgar Group delivers its polling questionnaires utilizing a mix of six different methods:
Live callers Integrated voice response Text messages Emails Two other proprietary digital methods they don’t share publicly.
You are assuming that they are CURRENTLY using all of these methods. When it could be that they've used (how legitimately who knows?) them at some point in the PAST.
IMHO Trafalgar is just a robo-call chop-shop, that hit the jackpot in 2016 thanks to less-than-stellar polling (the real kind) plus the criminal incompetence of Robbie Mook ("a mook by name and nature) . Caveat emptor!
Even robo-call chop-shops are usually incorporated. Either that, or Mr Cahaly is paying for everything on his personal Amex card.
My guess is that he's got a somewhat complex fiscal-business structure, perhaps relying on loopholes in SC or maybe GA law.
Perhaps as a limited partnership or something that does NOT involve incorporation.
Anyway, sounds like ferreting out Cahaly's hidey-holes would be a PRIMEassignment for journalistic investigation.
Of course Robert, if you're suspicions about Trafalgar are correct one would be justified in eliminating their results from all the polling averages. That would cause a significant increase in Biden's poll lead.
I really am beginning to wonder what is holding up Trump's price. It is ressembling the Leadsome puzzle, for those that remember the strange behaviour of her price during the Tory Leadership contest.
On what basis would you possibly exclude the only pollster to correctly get Michigan and Pennsylvania right in 2016? I am astonished so many on here have still learnt nothing from 2016
On the grounds that they don't show their workings and may well be entirely bogus, for the many reasons given here this evening.
Little old ladies sometimes get the winner of the Grand National using all sorts of weird and hilarious selection methods. Trafalgar's overall record is no great shakes. There is more than a suspicion they just got lucky with some of their 2016 results. They could easily dispel suspicions by publishing their cross-tables. They don't. As a punter, I'd have to be a right mug to trust they didn't just fluke it in 2016.
But go ahead and back Trump if you are so sure they have the magic touch. No law against it.
I've Tweeted to the guy who runs them, I've dropped him a text message, and called him.
(Bear in mind that there appears to only be one person at Trafalgar. Which doesn't actually exist as any thing more than a website.)
No reponse.
Well to be fair, Robert, if it's only one geeser he's probably a bit busy. He has to collect all the data, interview people, analyse the results (carefully weighting for educational qualifications and the like), do all the accounts, make the tea, deal with the press etc etc......And you expect him to get straight back to you?
On topic, my problem is I am easily swayed by serious looking info - the conclusion is appealing, but I lack the ability to objectively assess the argument, alas. But it is good to see an attempt at analysis.
Trump does not even necessarily need to come from behind now, according to some state polls from key swing states in the last few days he is ahead in enough swing states for a narrow re election, even if he is likely to lose the national popular vote again.
People should know this about Trafalgar's history - Robert Cahaly is the face of the company on twitter. https://www.wistv.com/story/13429729/gop-consultant-to-face-sled-arrest-for-illegal-robocalls/ 41-year-old Robert Cahaly faces charges that he purchased, then disseminated computer-generated calls from an automatically dialed announcing service to potential South Carolina voters on September 23.
According to SLED, the calls were political in nature and were allegedly made without properly disclosing the identity of the originating party to the call recipients, which is in violation of SC Code 16-17-446.
We previously reported that the Ken Ard's campaign manager was accused of robocalling and that there was a warrant issued for his arrest. In fact, the campaign manager is not accused of robocalling and is not in trouble with the law.
SLED has determined that the calls were made through a Richland County landline telephone number owned by Gadsden and Greene Strategies, a company owned by Cahaly.
The calls, according to SLED, were allegedly made to numerous voters in House Districts 26 (Greenville and Pickens), 78 (Richland County), 79 (Kershaw and Richland Counties), 98 (Dorchester County), 108 (Charleston and Georgetown Counties) and 115 (James Island and Folly Beach).
Who cares? They forecast Trump would win Michigan and Florida right in 2016 and that is all that matters
I think you have stated your philosophy rather nicely there, and it is clear why you do not bet. If you ever start betting, please let me know.
Meanwhile you can hardly contain your excitement that your orange turdbucket might just scrape home for four more years of glorious One Nation Conservatism.
After that Trafalgar poll I have made a small bet actually at 6/1 that Trump to get 270 to 299 EC votes, I don't bet often but do occasionally if good value
As an aside, I see that Robert Cahaly seems to have a criminal record.
I’m with Marcy.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ratfucking ...In August 2017, journalist Marcy Wheeler garnered the disapprobation of the Federal Communications Commission when she used the term in a radio broadcast. Wheeler maintained that the word has become a term of art in political science and is thus not an obscenity; FCC officials disagreed.
As an aside, I see that Robert Cahaly seems to have a criminal record.
Could you be more specific. Note that he was acquitted of breaking South Carolina anti-robocall law, and even won a court judgement against those who had him arrested.
@HYUFD nobody is saying that Trump wont win, they’re just questioning your laughable devotion to Trafalgar based purely on their record of 3 states in 2016, in which they weren’t even very accurate in terms of the vote share, simply the lead.
Trump does not even necessarily need to come from behind now, according to some state polls from key swing states in the last few days he is ahead in enough swing states for a narrow re election, even if he is likely to lose the national popular vote again.
People should know this about Trafalgar's history - Robert Cahaly is the face of the company on twitter. https://www.wistv.com/story/13429729/gop-consultant-to-face-sled-arrest-for-illegal-robocalls/ 41-year-old Robert Cahaly faces charges that he purchased, then disseminated computer-generated calls from an automatically dialed announcing service to potential South Carolina voters on September 23.
According to SLED, the calls were political in nature and were allegedly made without properly disclosing the identity of the originating party to the call recipients, which is in violation of SC Code 16-17-446.
We previously reported that the Ken Ard's campaign manager was accused of robocalling and that there was a warrant issued for his arrest. In fact, the campaign manager is not accused of robocalling and is not in trouble with the law.
SLED has determined that the calls were made through a Richland County landline telephone number owned by Gadsden and Greene Strategies, a company owned by Cahaly.
The calls, according to SLED, were allegedly made to numerous voters in House Districts 26 (Greenville and Pickens), 78 (Richland County), 79 (Kershaw and Richland Counties), 98 (Dorchester County), 108 (Charleston and Georgetown Counties) and 115 (James Island and Folly Beach).
Who cares? They forecast Trump would win Michigan and Florida right in 2016 and that is all that matters
I think you have stated your philosophy rather nicely there, and it is clear why you do not bet. If you ever start betting, please let me know.
Meanwhile you can hardly contain your excitement that your orange turdbucket might just scrape home for four more years of glorious One Nation Conservatism.
After that Trafalgar poll I have made a small bet actually at 6/1 that Trump to get 270 to 299 EC votes, I don't bet often but do occasionally if good value
You could have got 9/1 on betfair!
No, it is 6/1 now, it was on betfair, money has been going on Trump tonight in the EC after that Trafalgar Michigan poll
That's not good enough. I pay £0 a month to access this site, and I demand my money's worth.
Huh, I've been paying a monthly subscription to what I thought was PB Technical Services Enterprises for years. Now I need to find out who the hell I've been sending thousands of pounds to this whole time.
Just to let you know that your sub will be increasing now that I will be offshore thanks to Brexit.
@HYUFD nobody is saying that Trump wont win, they’re just questioning your laughable devotion to Trafalgar based purely on their record of 3 states in 2016, in which they weren’t even very accurate in terms of the vote share, simply the lead.
I’m saying he won’t win. Though I acknowledge it’s not impossible.
@HYUFD nobody is saying that Trump wont win, they’re just questioning your laughable devotion to Trafalgar based purely on their record of 3 states in 2016, in which they weren’t even very accurate in terms of the vote share, simply the lead.
Well we will see if they are still laughing on election night won't we!
Trump does not even necessarily need to come from behind now, according to some state polls from key swing states in the last few days he is ahead in enough swing states for a narrow re election, even if he is likely to lose the national popular vote again.
People should know this about Trafalgar's history - Robert Cahaly is the face of the company on twitter. https://www.wistv.com/story/13429729/gop-consultant-to-face-sled-arrest-for-illegal-robocalls/ 41-year-old Robert Cahaly faces charges that he purchased, then disseminated computer-generated calls from an automatically dialed announcing service to potential South Carolina voters on September 23.
According to SLED, the calls were political in nature and were allegedly made without properly disclosing the identity of the originating party to the call recipients, which is in violation of SC Code 16-17-446.
We previously reported that the Ken Ard's campaign manager was accused of robocalling and that there was a warrant issued for his arrest. In fact, the campaign manager is not accused of robocalling and is not in trouble with the law.
SLED has determined that the calls were made through a Richland County landline telephone number owned by Gadsden and Greene Strategies, a company owned by Cahaly.
The calls, according to SLED, were allegedly made to numerous voters in House Districts 26 (Greenville and Pickens), 78 (Richland County), 79 (Kershaw and Richland Counties), 98 (Dorchester County), 108 (Charleston and Georgetown Counties) and 115 (James Island and Folly Beach).
Who cares? They forecast Trump would win Michigan and Florida right in 2016 and that is all that matters
I think you have stated your philosophy rather nicely there, and it is clear why you do not bet. If you ever start betting, please let me know.
Meanwhile you can hardly contain your excitement that your orange turdbucket might just scrape home for four more years of glorious One Nation Conservatism.
After that Trafalgar poll I have made a small bet actually at 6/1 that Trump to get 270 to 299 EC votes, I don't bet often but do occasionally if good value
You could have got 9/1 on betfair!
No, it is 6/1 now, it was on betfair, money has been going on Trump tonight in the EC after that Trafalgar Michigan poll
Well at least he has some experience of the media now, I guess, but there are Tories to appoint and then Tories to appoint. Must it be someone so high profile?
Though with all the jobs he's had since leaivng parliament ot makes me wonder what Cameron has been spending his time doing.
As an aside, I see that Robert Cahaly seems to have a criminal record.
Could you be more specific. Note that he was acquitted of breaking South Carolina anti-robocall law, and even won a court judgement against those who had him arrested.
@HYUFD nobody is saying that Trump wont win, they’re just questioning your laughable devotion to Trafalgar based purely on their record of 3 states in 2016, in which they weren’t even very accurate in terms of the vote share, simply the lead.
Well we will see if they are still laughing on election night won't we!
I think Trafalgar is just the one person, so you shouldn't use the plural.
@HYUFD nobody is saying that Trump wont win, they’re just questioning your laughable devotion to Trafalgar based purely on their record of 3 states in 2016, in which they weren’t even very accurate in terms of the vote share, simply the lead.
If Trump does win, it will become accepted as fact that no one thought he could, even though lots of people have said he might, even if they think Biden will.
That's not good enough. I pay £0 a month to access this site, and I demand my money's worth.
Huh, I've been paying a monthly subscription to what I thought was PB Technical Services Enterprises for years. Now I need to find out who the hell I've been sending thousands of pounds to this whole time.
Just to let you know that your sub will be increasing now that I will be offshore thanks to Brexit.
Can someone explain to me what the GOP have to gain by Trafalgar posting polls that favour them? Surely in this election they are helping the Dem GOTV by posting narrow Biden leads/Trump leads?
Nothing to do with the GOP, it's all to do with what is good for Cahaly. The sometimes Senior Strategist, sometime owner of Trafalgar depending where and when you look on their website.
And of course it is worth stating the obvious - any such polling error could just as easily be in favour of Biden as Trump.
Anyone for an underestimate of Shy-Bidens?
I've been pondering this for a while, and haven't gone back over the data to check, but I wonder if polling errors aren't more commonly in favour of Republicans. If so, I wonder if they aren't entirely polling error and partially the result of vote suppression meaning voters who intended to vote Democrat were more likely then Republicans to end up not voting due to long lines etc.
Like I say, I've not checked the numbers to even see if polling error isn't entirely random. So I may be barking up the wrong tree. Obama clearly outperformed in 2012, and as you say Biden would crush Trump if he did that again (and, perhaps more to the point, even a small Democrat overperformance may hand them 2-4 more Senators).
I don't believe that's the case. In 2016, Republicans were understated by about 1.5%. In 2012, it was Dems by 3% (the biggest Presidential polling error I've found). Then in '08, the polls were broadly right. While in 2004, the Republicans outperformed, and in 2000, it was Al Gore's Democrats.
Thanks for that. Always good to challenge hunches with data.
@HYUFD nobody is saying that Trump wont win, they’re just questioning your laughable devotion to Trafalgar based purely on their record of 3 states in 2016, in which they weren’t even very accurate in terms of the vote share, simply the lead.
I’m saying he won’t win. Though I acknowledge it’s not impossible.
That is what I meant, I’ve just had a few gin and tonics. Apologies!
@HYUFD nobody is saying that Trump wont win, they’re just questioning your laughable devotion to Trafalgar based purely on their record of 3 states in 2016, in which they weren’t even very accurate in terms of the vote share, simply the lead.
If Trump does win, it will become accepted as fact that no one thought he could, even though lots of people have said he might, even if they think Biden will.
I’m still preparing for and expecting a Trump victory. 🤷♂️
Trump does not even necessarily need to come from behind now, according to some state polls from key swing states in the last few days he is ahead in enough swing states for a narrow re election, even if he is likely to lose the national popular vote again.
People should know this about Trafalgar's history - Robert Cahaly is the face of the company on twitter. https://www.wistv.com/story/13429729/gop-consultant-to-face-sled-arrest-for-illegal-robocalls/ 41-year-old Robert Cahaly faces charges that he purchased, then disseminated computer-generated calls from an automatically dialed announcing service to potential South Carolina voters on September 23.
According to SLED, the calls were political in nature and were allegedly made without properly disclosing the identity of the originating party to the call recipients, which is in violation of SC Code 16-17-446.
We previously reported that the Ken Ard's campaign manager was accused of robocalling and that there was a warrant issued for his arrest. In fact, the campaign manager is not accused of robocalling and is not in trouble with the law.
SLED has determined that the calls were made through a Richland County landline telephone number owned by Gadsden and Greene Strategies, a company owned by Cahaly.
The calls, according to SLED, were allegedly made to numerous voters in House Districts 26 (Greenville and Pickens), 78 (Richland County), 79 (Kershaw and Richland Counties), 98 (Dorchester County), 108 (Charleston and Georgetown Counties) and 115 (James Island and Folly Beach).
Who cares? They forecast Trump would win Michigan and Florida right in 2016 and that is all that matters
I think you have stated your philosophy rather nicely there, and it is clear why you do not bet. If you ever start betting, please let me know.
Meanwhile you can hardly contain your excitement that your orange turdbucket might just scrape home for four more years of glorious One Nation Conservatism.
After that Trafalgar poll I have made a small bet actually at 6/1 that Trump to get 270 to 299 EC votes, I don't bet often but do occasionally if good value
You could have got 9/1 on betfair!
No, it is 6/1 now, it was on betfair, money has been going on Trump tonight in the EC after that Trafalgar Michigan poll
@HYUFD nobody is saying that Trump wont win, they’re just questioning your laughable devotion to Trafalgar based purely on their record of 3 states in 2016, in which they weren’t even very accurate in terms of the vote share, simply the lead.
I’m saying he won’t win. Though I acknowledge it’s not impossible.
That is what I meant, I’ve just had a few gin and tonics. Apologies!
No need to apologise for that. Though some might argue it’s gins and tonic.
Trump does not even necessarily need to come from behind now, according to some state polls from key swing states in the last few days he is ahead in enough swing states for a narrow re election, even if he is likely to lose the national popular vote again.
People should know this about Trafalgar's history - Robert Cahaly is the face of the company on twitter. https://www.wistv.com/story/13429729/gop-consultant-to-face-sled-arrest-for-illegal-robocalls/ 41-year-old Robert Cahaly faces charges that he purchased, then disseminated computer-generated calls from an automatically dialed announcing service to potential South Carolina voters on September 23.
According to SLED, the calls were political in nature and were allegedly made without properly disclosing the identity of the originating party to the call recipients, which is in violation of SC Code 16-17-446.
We previously reported that the Ken Ard's campaign manager was accused of robocalling and that there was a warrant issued for his arrest. In fact, the campaign manager is not accused of robocalling and is not in trouble with the law.
SLED has determined that the calls were made through a Richland County landline telephone number owned by Gadsden and Greene Strategies, a company owned by Cahaly.
The calls, according to SLED, were allegedly made to numerous voters in House Districts 26 (Greenville and Pickens), 78 (Richland County), 79 (Kershaw and Richland Counties), 98 (Dorchester County), 108 (Charleston and Georgetown Counties) and 115 (James Island and Folly Beach).
Who cares? They forecast Trump would win Michigan and Florida right in 2016 and that is all that matters
I think you have stated your philosophy rather nicely there, and it is clear why you do not bet. If you ever start betting, please let me know.
Meanwhile you can hardly contain your excitement that your orange turdbucket might just scrape home for four more years of glorious One Nation Conservatism.
After that Trafalgar poll I have made a small bet actually at 6/1 that Trump to get 270 to 299 EC votes, I don't bet often but do occasionally if good value
You could have got 9/1 on betfair!
No, it is 6/1 now, it was on betfair, money has been going on Trump tonight in the EC after that Trafalgar Michigan poll
That's not good enough. I pay £0 a month to access this site, and I demand my money's worth.
Huh, I've been paying a monthly subscription to what I thought was PB Technical Services Enterprises for years. Now I need to find out who the hell I've been sending thousands of pounds to this whole time.
Just to let you know that your sub will be increasing now that I will be offshore thanks to Brexit.
Of course Robert, if you're suspicions about Trafalgar are correct one would be justified in eliminating their results from all the polling averages. That would cause a significant increase in Biden's poll lead.
I really am beginning to wonder what is holding up Trump's price. It is ressembling the Leadsome puzzle, for those that remember the strange behaviour of her price during the Tory Leadership contest.
Personally I think we risk overthinking the market. The simplest answer is just that most punters aren't that well versed in the numbers and so on, and are being overly affected by 2016. That's my conclusion, anyway.
I have been astonished by experts not knowing the first thing, in other fields before.
I have previously related going to a high powered seminar on space investment - real, major investors, hosted by a major bank etc. To find out that the guy doing the talk was unaware of ITAR and what it meant.....
Which meant he knew less than *anyone* I've met who is vaguely into space stuff.
So we'll find 1000s and 1000s more false positives and need a massive new year lockdown.
Ah yes - those false positives. Along with the false sicknesses and false deaths.
Indeed. Of all the theories that don't hold water the false positive one is definitely it. If it was true we'd be seeing no appreciable rise in the hospitalisation or death rate and since both have followed new cases upwards it's logical to say the cases are real positives, not false positives.
Of course Robert, if you're suspicions about Trafalgar are correct one would be justified in eliminating their results from all the polling averages. That would cause a significant increase in Biden's poll lead.
I really am beginning to wonder what is holding up Trump's price. It is ressembling the Leadsome puzzle, for those that remember the strange behaviour of her price during the Tory Leadership contest.
On what basis would you possibly exclude the only pollster to correctly get Michigan and Pennsylvania right in 2016? I am astonished so many on here have still learnt nothing from 2016
On the grounds that they don't show their workings and may well be entirely bogus, for the many reasons given here this evening.
Little old ladies sometimes get the winner of the Grand National using all sorts of weird and hilarious selection methods. Trafalgar's overall record is no great shakes. There is more than a suspicion they just got lucky with some of their 2016 results. They could easily dispel suspicions by publishing their cross-tables. They don't. As a punter, I'd have to be a right mug to trust they didn't just fluke it in 2016.
But go ahead and back Trump if you are so sure they have the magic touch. No law against it.
I've Tweeted to the guy who runs them, I've dropped him a text message, and called him.
(Bear in mind that there appears to only be one person at Trafalgar. Which doesn't actually exist as any thing more than a website.)
No reponse.
Well to be fair, Robert, if it's only one geeser he's probably a bit busy. He has to collect all the data, interview people, analyse the results (carefully weighting for educational qualifications and the like), do all the accounts, make the tea, deal with the press etc etc......And you expect him to get straight back to you?
Be reasonable.
Trafalgar is most definitely NOT a one-man band. Instead, it is part and parcel of the national Republican political consultant network. Which (like its Democratic counterpart) is a BIG business, in part thanks to SCOTUS "money is speech" ruling.
Keep in mind that federal & state campaign financing laws are a maze (or rather rats nest) of incredible complexity, thriving on very limited disclosure of the sources & disposition of (as the late Carl Sagan would say) millions and millions and millions of dollars. For example, independent expenditure (IE) campaigns, which is where the REAL money is in US politics today.
Further keep in mind that this landscape PLUS creative use of business laws makes it child's play for a real operator such as Cahaly to keep his dealings hidden behind a seeming cloak of invisibility.
You simply do NOT see much, certainly re: his finances, and not much more re: his political, electoral and "polling" activities. Would take a battalion of accountants, investigators, journalists, researchers and prosecutors to unravel much below the surface.
And of course it is worth stating the obvious - any such polling error could just as easily be in favour of Biden as Trump.
Anyone for an underestimate of Shy-Bidens?
I've been pondering this for a while, and haven't gone back over the data to check, but I wonder if polling errors aren't more commonly in favour of Republicans. If so, I wonder if they aren't entirely polling error and partially the result of vote suppression meaning voters who intended to vote Democrat were more likely then Republicans to end up not voting due to long lines etc.
Like I say, I've not checked the numbers to even see if polling error isn't entirely random. So I may be barking up the wrong tree. Obama clearly outperformed in 2012, and as you say Biden would crush Trump if he did that again (and, perhaps more to the point, even a small Democrat overperformance may hand them 2-4 more Senators).
I don't believe that's the case. In 2016, Republicans were understated by about 1.5%. In 2012, it was Dems by 3% (the biggest Presidential polling error I've found). Then in '08, the polls were broadly right. While in 2004, the Republicans outperformed, and in 2000, it was Al Gore's Democrats.
Thanks for that. Always good to challenge hunches with data.
I#d have thought voter suppresion would work best with something like Clinton vs Romney where noone is going to wait 11 hours in a queue to vote against an ostensibly reasonable man such as Mitt Romney, or for Clinton ?
Biden will win the popular vote but still lose the electoral college?
Worth noting that winning the popular vote but losing the Electoral College has only happened twice in the modern era, and one of those times by just 0.5%. 2016 was an exceptionally unusual event.
Trump does not even necessarily need to come from behind now, according to some state polls from key swing states in the last few days he is ahead in enough swing states for a narrow re election, even if he is likely to lose the national popular vote again.
People should know this about Trafalgar's history - Robert Cahaly is the face of the company on twitter. https://www.wistv.com/story/13429729/gop-consultant-to-face-sled-arrest-for-illegal-robocalls/ 41-year-old Robert Cahaly faces charges that he purchased, then disseminated computer-generated calls from an automatically dialed announcing service to potential South Carolina voters on September 23.
According to SLED, the calls were political in nature and were allegedly made without properly disclosing the identity of the originating party to the call recipients, which is in violation of SC Code 16-17-446.
We previously reported that the Ken Ard's campaign manager was accused of robocalling and that there was a warrant issued for his arrest. In fact, the campaign manager is not accused of robocalling and is not in trouble with the law.
SLED has determined that the calls were made through a Richland County landline telephone number owned by Gadsden and Greene Strategies, a company owned by Cahaly.
The calls, according to SLED, were allegedly made to numerous voters in House Districts 26 (Greenville and Pickens), 78 (Richland County), 79 (Kershaw and Richland Counties), 98 (Dorchester County), 108 (Charleston and Georgetown Counties) and 115 (James Island and Folly Beach).
Who cares? They forecast Trump would win Michigan and Florida right in 2016 and that is all that matters
I think you have stated your philosophy rather nicely there, and it is clear why you do not bet. If you ever start betting, please let me know.
Meanwhile you can hardly contain your excitement that your orange turdbucket might just scrape home for four more years of glorious One Nation Conservatism.
After that Trafalgar poll I have made a small bet actually at 6/1 that Trump to get 270 to 299 EC votes, I don't bet often but do occasionally if good value
You could have got 9/1 on betfair!
No, it is 6/1 now, it was on betfair, money has been going on Trump tonight in the EC after that Trafalgar Michigan poll
Trump does not even necessarily need to come from behind now, according to some state polls from key swing states in the last few days he is ahead in enough swing states for a narrow re election, even if he is likely to lose the national popular vote again.
People should know this about Trafalgar's history - Robert Cahaly is the face of the company on twitter. https://www.wistv.com/story/13429729/gop-consultant-to-face-sled-arrest-for-illegal-robocalls/ 41-year-old Robert Cahaly faces charges that he purchased, then disseminated computer-generated calls from an automatically dialed announcing service to potential South Carolina voters on September 23.
According to SLED, the calls were political in nature and were allegedly made without properly disclosing the identity of the originating party to the call recipients, which is in violation of SC Code 16-17-446.
We previously reported that the Ken Ard's campaign manager was accused of robocalling and that there was a warrant issued for his arrest. In fact, the campaign manager is not accused of robocalling and is not in trouble with the law.
SLED has determined that the calls were made through a Richland County landline telephone number owned by Gadsden and Greene Strategies, a company owned by Cahaly.
The calls, according to SLED, were allegedly made to numerous voters in House Districts 26 (Greenville and Pickens), 78 (Richland County), 79 (Kershaw and Richland Counties), 98 (Dorchester County), 108 (Charleston and Georgetown Counties) and 115 (James Island and Folly Beach).
Who cares? They forecast Trump would win Michigan and Florida right in 2016 and that is all that matters
I think you have stated your philosophy rather nicely there, and it is clear why you do not bet. If you ever start betting, please let me know.
Meanwhile you can hardly contain your excitement that your orange turdbucket might just scrape home for four more years of glorious One Nation Conservatism.
After that Trafalgar poll I have made a small bet actually at 6/1 that Trump to get 270 to 299 EC votes, I don't bet often but do occasionally if good value
You could have got 9/1 on betfair!
No, it is 6/1 now, it was on betfair, money has been going on Trump tonight in the EC after that Trafalgar Michigan poll
Of course Robert, if you're suspicions about Trafalgar are correct one would be justified in eliminating their results from all the polling averages. That would cause a significant increase in Biden's poll lead.
I really am beginning to wonder what is holding up Trump's price. It is ressembling the Leadsome puzzle, for those that remember the strange behaviour of her price during the Tory Leadership contest.
On what basis would you possibly exclude the only pollster to correctly get Michigan and Pennsylvania right in 2016? I am astonished so many on here have still learnt nothing from 2016
On the grounds that they don't show their workings and may well be entirely bogus, for the many reasons given here this evening.
Little old ladies sometimes get the winner of the Grand National using all sorts of weird and hilarious selection methods. Trafalgar's overall record is no great shakes. There is more than a suspicion they just got lucky with some of their 2016 results. They could easily dispel suspicions by publishing their cross-tables. They don't. As a punter, I'd have to be a right mug to trust they didn't just fluke it in 2016.
But go ahead and back Trump if you are so sure they have the magic touch. No law against it.
I've Tweeted to the guy who runs them, I've dropped him a text message, and called him.
(Bear in mind that there appears to only be one person at Trafalgar. Which doesn't actually exist as any thing more than a website.)
No reponse.
Well to be fair, Robert, if it's only one geeser he's probably a bit busy. He has to collect all the data, interview people, analyse the results (carefully weighting for educational qualifications and the like), do all the accounts, make the tea, deal with the press etc etc......And you expect him to get straight back to you?
Be reasonable.
Trafalgar is most definitely NOT a one-man band. Instead, it is part and parcel of the national Republican political consultant network. Which (like its Democratic counterpart) is a BIG business, in part thanks to SCOTUS "money is speech" ruling.
Keep in mind that federal & state campaign financing laws are a maze (or rather rats nest) of incredible complexity, thriving on very limited disclosure of the sources & disposition of (as the late Carl Sagan would say) millions and millions and millions of dollars. For example, independent expenditure (IE) campaigns, which is where the REAL money is in US politics today.
Further keep in mind that this landscape PLUS creative use of business laws makes it child's play for a real operator such as Cahaly to keep his dealings hidden behind a seeming cloak of invisibility.
You simply do NOT see much, certainly re: his finances, and not much more re: his political, electoral and "polling" activities. Would take a battalion of accountants, investigators, journalists, researchers and prosecutors to unravel much below the surface.
They why aren't there any Trafalgar employees, associates or partners on LinkedIn?
Biden will win the popular vote but still lose the electoral college?
Worth noting that winning the popular vote but losing the Electoral College has only happened twice in the modern era, and one of those times by just 0.5%. 2016 was an exceptionally unusual event.
Hillary won the popular vote by 2.1% in 2016, Gore only won the popular vote by 0.5% in 2000 and Bush won the popular vote in 2004.
There is a strong chance Trump will be the first President in US history to be re elected having never won the popular vote because his vote is so efficiently spread in the rustbelt swing states, Hillary won California, the most populated US state, against Trump for example by more than Obama did against Romney and McCain and Biden will likely win New York and California by landslides too
Trump does not even necessarily need to come from behind now, according to some state polls from key swing states in the last few days he is ahead in enough swing states for a narrow re election, even if he is likely to lose the national popular vote again.
People should know this about Trafalgar's history - Robert Cahaly is the face of the company on twitter. https://www.wistv.com/story/13429729/gop-consultant-to-face-sled-arrest-for-illegal-robocalls/ 41-year-old Robert Cahaly faces charges that he purchased, then disseminated computer-generated calls from an automatically dialed announcing service to potential South Carolina voters on September 23.
According to SLED, the calls were political in nature and were allegedly made without properly disclosing the identity of the originating party to the call recipients, which is in violation of SC Code 16-17-446.
We previously reported that the Ken Ard's campaign manager was accused of robocalling and that there was a warrant issued for his arrest. In fact, the campaign manager is not accused of robocalling and is not in trouble with the law.
SLED has determined that the calls were made through a Richland County landline telephone number owned by Gadsden and Greene Strategies, a company owned by Cahaly.
The calls, according to SLED, were allegedly made to numerous voters in House Districts 26 (Greenville and Pickens), 78 (Richland County), 79 (Kershaw and Richland Counties), 98 (Dorchester County), 108 (Charleston and Georgetown Counties) and 115 (James Island and Folly Beach).
Who cares? They forecast Trump would win Michigan and Florida right in 2016 and that is all that matters
I think you have stated your philosophy rather nicely there, and it is clear why you do not bet. If you ever start betting, please let me know.
Meanwhile you can hardly contain your excitement that your orange turdbucket might just scrape home for four more years of glorious One Nation Conservatism.
After that Trafalgar poll I have made a small bet actually at 6/1 that Trump to get 270 to 299 EC votes, I don't bet often but do occasionally if good value
You could have got 9/1 on betfair!
No, it is 6/1 now, it was on betfair, money has been going on Trump tonight in the EC after that Trafalgar Michigan poll
Trump does not even necessarily need to come from behind now, according to some state polls from key swing states in the last few days he is ahead in enough swing states for a narrow re election, even if he is likely to lose the national popular vote again.
People should know this about Trafalgar's history - Robert Cahaly is the face of the company on twitter. https://www.wistv.com/story/13429729/gop-consultant-to-face-sled-arrest-for-illegal-robocalls/ 41-year-old Robert Cahaly faces charges that he purchased, then disseminated computer-generated calls from an automatically dialed announcing service to potential South Carolina voters on September 23.
According to SLED, the calls were political in nature and were allegedly made without properly disclosing the identity of the originating party to the call recipients, which is in violation of SC Code 16-17-446.
We previously reported that the Ken Ard's campaign manager was accused of robocalling and that there was a warrant issued for his arrest. In fact, the campaign manager is not accused of robocalling and is not in trouble with the law.
SLED has determined that the calls were made through a Richland County landline telephone number owned by Gadsden and Greene Strategies, a company owned by Cahaly.
The calls, according to SLED, were allegedly made to numerous voters in House Districts 26 (Greenville and Pickens), 78 (Richland County), 79 (Kershaw and Richland Counties), 98 (Dorchester County), 108 (Charleston and Georgetown Counties) and 115 (James Island and Folly Beach).
Who cares? They forecast Trump would win Michigan and Florida right in 2016 and that is all that matters
I think you have stated your philosophy rather nicely there, and it is clear why you do not bet. If you ever start betting, please let me know.
Meanwhile you can hardly contain your excitement that your orange turdbucket might just scrape home for four more years of glorious One Nation Conservatism.
After that Trafalgar poll I have made a small bet actually at 6/1 that Trump to get 270 to 299 EC votes, I don't bet often but do occasionally if good value
You could have got 9/1 on betfair!
No, it is 6/1 now, it was on betfair, money has been going on Trump tonight in the EC after that Trafalgar Michigan poll
Of course Robert, if you're suspicions about Trafalgar are correct one would be justified in eliminating their results from all the polling averages. That would cause a significant increase in Biden's poll lead.
I really am beginning to wonder what is holding up Trump's price. It is ressembling the Leadsome puzzle, for those that remember the strange behaviour of her price during the Tory Leadership contest.
Personally I think we risk overthinking the market. The simplest answer is just that most punters aren't that well versed in the numbers and so on, and are being overly affected by 2016. That's my conclusion, anyway.
I have been astonished by experts not knowing the first thing, in other fields before.
I have previously related going to a high powered seminar on space investment - real, major investors, hosted by a major bank etc. To find out that the guy doing the talk was unaware of ITAR and what it meant.....
Which meant he knew less than *anyone* I've met who is vaguely into space stuff.
Relatedly, I wish more people were familiar with the concept of Circles of Competence. Knowledge, skill, or expertise in one area is a very weak predictor of knowledge, skill, or expertise in another. And yet we see the views of celebrities, particularly ones known for their intellect, amplified onto topics they have no particular insight in. And people are too quick to form their own judgements on topics they are unfamiliar.
Transferable skills are very real, but we overstate them and don't recognise when they do and don't apply.
I suspect the US polls are pretty accurate. But we have to consider how effective the attempts at voter suppression will be. It's a lot easier to tell a pollster you'll vote for Biden that it actually is to do so in some places.
Of course Robert, if you're suspicions about Trafalgar are correct one would be justified in eliminating their results from all the polling averages. That would cause a significant increase in Biden's poll lead.
I really am beginning to wonder what is holding up Trump's price. It is ressembling the Leadsome puzzle, for those that remember the strange behaviour of her price during the Tory Leadership contest.
On what basis would you possibly exclude the only pollster to correctly get Michigan and Pennsylvania right in 2016? I am astonished so many on here have still learnt nothing from 2016
On the grounds that they don't show their workings and may well be entirely bogus, for the many reasons given here this evening.
Little old ladies sometimes get the winner of the Grand National using all sorts of weird and hilarious selection methods. Trafalgar's overall record is no great shakes. There is more than a suspicion they just got lucky with some of their 2016 results. They could easily dispel suspicions by publishing their cross-tables. They don't. As a punter, I'd have to be a right mug to trust they didn't just fluke it in 2016.
But go ahead and back Trump if you are so sure they have the magic touch. No law against it.
I've Tweeted to the guy who runs them, I've dropped him a text message, and called him.
(Bear in mind that there appears to only be one person at Trafalgar. Which doesn't actually exist as any thing more than a website.)
No reponse.
Well to be fair, Robert, if it's only one geeser he's probably a bit busy. He has to collect all the data, interview people, analyse the results (carefully weighting for educational qualifications and the like), do all the accounts, make the tea, deal with the press etc etc......And you expect him to get straight back to you?
Be reasonable.
Trafalgar is most definitely NOT a one-man band. Instead, it is part and parcel of the national Republican political consultant network. Which (like its Democratic counterpart) is a BIG business, in part thanks to SCOTUS "money is speech" ruling.
Keep in mind that federal & state campaign financing laws are a maze (or rather rats nest) of incredible complexity, thriving on very limited disclosure of the sources & disposition of (as the late Carl Sagan would say) millions and millions and millions of dollars. For example, independent expenditure (IE) campaigns, which is where the REAL money is in US politics today.
Further keep in mind that this landscape PLUS creative use of business laws makes it child's play for a real operator such as Cahaly to keep his dealings hidden behind a seeming cloak of invisibility.
You simply do NOT see much, certainly re: his finances, and not much more re: his political, electoral and "polling" activities. Would take a battalion of accountants, investigators, journalists, researchers and prosecutors to unravel much below the surface.
They why aren't there any Trafalgar employees, associates or partners on LinkedIn?
Because the whole thing is set up to be NON-transparent?
The feckers that work for Cahaly do NOT need fecking LinkedIn to network within GOP political-consultant complex.
BTW yours truly used to work (many years ago) for a character who was a LOT like Cahaly. Man of mystery, manipulation, intrigue and skullduggery. Preferred cold cash thrown over the transom to checks & invoices. VERY sharp at working the angles. For example, in one campaign did BOTH candidate AND a (supposed) independent expenditure - at got state ethics people to agree that it was NOT illegal, due to way law was drafted.
And of course it is worth stating the obvious - any such polling error could just as easily be in favour of Biden as Trump.
Anyone for an underestimate of Shy-Bidens?
I've been pondering this for a while, and haven't gone back over the data to check, but I wonder if polling errors aren't more commonly in favour of Republicans. If so, I wonder if they aren't entirely polling error and partially the result of vote suppression meaning voters who intended to vote Democrat were more likely then Republicans to end up not voting due to long lines etc.
Like I say, I've not checked the numbers to even see if polling error isn't entirely random. So I may be barking up the wrong tree. Obama clearly outperformed in 2012, and as you say Biden would crush Trump if he did that again (and, perhaps more to the point, even a small Democrat overperformance may hand them 2-4 more Senators).
I don't believe that's the case. In 2016, Republicans were understated by about 1.5%. In 2012, it was Dems by 3% (the biggest Presidential polling error I've found). Then in '08, the polls were broadly right. While in 2004, the Republicans outperformed, and in 2000, it was Al Gore's Democrats.
Thanks for that. Always good to challenge hunches with data.
I#d have thought voter suppresion would work best with something like Clinton vs Romney where noone is going to wait 11 hours in a queue to vote against an ostensibly reasonable man such as Mitt Romney, or for Clinton ?
My instinct, and it is no more scientific than that, is that the polling error will be against the winning side in a wave election. And this feels like one.
Trump does not even necessarily need to come from behind now, according to some state polls from key swing states in the last few days he is ahead in enough swing states for a narrow re election, even if he is likely to lose the national popular vote again.
People should know this about Trafalgar's history - Robert Cahaly is the face of the company on twitter. https://www.wistv.com/story/13429729/gop-consultant-to-face-sled-arrest-for-illegal-robocalls/ 41-year-old Robert Cahaly faces charges that he purchased, then disseminated computer-generated calls from an automatically dialed announcing service to potential South Carolina voters on September 23.
According to SLED, the calls were political in nature and were allegedly made without properly disclosing the identity of the originating party to the call recipients, which is in violation of SC Code 16-17-446.
We previously reported that the Ken Ard's campaign manager was accused of robocalling and that there was a warrant issued for his arrest. In fact, the campaign manager is not accused of robocalling and is not in trouble with the law.
SLED has determined that the calls were made through a Richland County landline telephone number owned by Gadsden and Greene Strategies, a company owned by Cahaly.
The calls, according to SLED, were allegedly made to numerous voters in House Districts 26 (Greenville and Pickens), 78 (Richland County), 79 (Kershaw and Richland Counties), 98 (Dorchester County), 108 (Charleston and Georgetown Counties) and 115 (James Island and Folly Beach).
Who cares? They forecast Trump would win Michigan and Florida right in 2016 and that is all that matters
I think you have stated your philosophy rather nicely there, and it is clear why you do not bet. If you ever start betting, please let me know.
Meanwhile you can hardly contain your excitement that your orange turdbucket might just scrape home for four more years of glorious One Nation Conservatism.
After that Trafalgar poll I have made a small bet actually at 6/1 that Trump to get 270 to 299 EC votes, I don't bet often but do occasionally if good value
You could have got 9/1 on betfair!
No, it is 6/1 now, it was on betfair, money has been going on Trump tonight in the EC after that Trafalgar Michigan poll
Just in case anyone wants the Excel formula to calculate the R value from the dashboard CSV download, column E is the daily case rate by specimen date:
Just copy the whole thing into any cell to the right of E2 in the download. I also did a bit of reading and it seems the incubation time is actually 5 days and the number of days infectious during that is 3.5 days which is hardcoded into the formula.
I think I'll write a script and UDF on monday to automate daily calculation, but I'll need to find the time.
Trump does not even necessarily need to come from behind now, according to some state polls from key swing states in the last few days he is ahead in enough swing states for a narrow re election, even if he is likely to lose the national popular vote again.
People should know this about Trafalgar's history - Robert Cahaly is the face of the company on twitter. https://www.wistv.com/story/13429729/gop-consultant-to-face-sled-arrest-for-illegal-robocalls/ 41-year-old Robert Cahaly faces charges that he purchased, then disseminated computer-generated calls from an automatically dialed announcing service to potential South Carolina voters on September 23.
According to SLED, the calls were political in nature and were allegedly made without properly disclosing the identity of the originating party to the call recipients, which is in violation of SC Code 16-17-446.
We previously reported that the Ken Ard's campaign manager was accused of robocalling and that there was a warrant issued for his arrest. In fact, the campaign manager is not accused of robocalling and is not in trouble with the law.
SLED has determined that the calls were made through a Richland County landline telephone number owned by Gadsden and Greene Strategies, a company owned by Cahaly.
The calls, according to SLED, were allegedly made to numerous voters in House Districts 26 (Greenville and Pickens), 78 (Richland County), 79 (Kershaw and Richland Counties), 98 (Dorchester County), 108 (Charleston and Georgetown Counties) and 115 (James Island and Folly Beach).
Who cares? They forecast Trump would win Michigan and Florida right in 2016 and that is all that matters
I think you have stated your philosophy rather nicely there, and it is clear why you do not bet. If you ever start betting, please let me know.
Meanwhile you can hardly contain your excitement that your orange turdbucket might just scrape home for four more years of glorious One Nation Conservatism.
After that Trafalgar poll I have made a small bet actually at 6/1 that Trump to get 270 to 299 EC votes, I don't bet often but do occasionally if good value
You could have got 9/1 on betfair!
No, it is 6/1 now, it was on betfair, money has been going on Trump tonight in the EC after that Trafalgar Michigan poll
Relatedly, I wish more people were familiar with the concept of Circles of Competence. Knowledge, skill, or expertise in one area is a very weak predictor of knowledge, skill, or expertise in another. And yet we see the views of celebrities, particularly ones known for their intellect, amplified onto topics they have no particular insight in. And people are too quick to form their own judgements on topics they are unfamiliar.
Transferable skills are very real, but we overstate them and don't recognise when they do and don't apply.
People who are good at one thing think they must be good at many other things. "How hard can it be?" they think.
People who are really good at one thing usually realise that they know naff all about things outside of the field. "It must be at least as hard as this very hard field I'm an expert in."
Of course Robert, if you're suspicions about Trafalgar are correct one would be justified in eliminating their results from all the polling averages. That would cause a significant increase in Biden's poll lead.
I really am beginning to wonder what is holding up Trump's price. It is ressembling the Leadsome puzzle, for those that remember the strange behaviour of her price during the Tory Leadership contest.
Personally I think we risk overthinking the market. The simplest answer is just that most punters aren't that well versed in the numbers and so on, and are being overly affected by 2016. That's my conclusion, anyway.
I have been astonished by experts not knowing the first thing, in other fields before.
I have previously related going to a high powered seminar on space investment - real, major investors, hosted by a major bank etc. To find out that the guy doing the talk was unaware of ITAR and what it meant.....
Which meant he knew less than *anyone* I've met who is vaguely into space stuff.
Relatedly, I wish more people were familiar with the concept of Circles of Competence. Knowledge, skill, or expertise in one area is a very weak predictor of knowledge, skill, or expertise in another. And yet we see the views of celebrities, particularly ones known for their intellect, amplified onto topics they have no particular insight in. And people are too quick to form their own judgements on topics they are unfamiliar.
Transferable skills are very real, but we overstate them and don't recognise when they do and don't apply.
This is particularly true in truly complex disciplines where intuitive knowledge - or more properly true expertise in the form Gary Klein has researched based on recognition priming - is key, which is pretty much all the areas in which punditry thrives. This is the type of expertise acquired through decades of actually doing the skill, not reading about it.
But the news outlets don't really care - all they want is someone with the gift of the gab who is sufficiently photogenic and has a good voice. I have on more than one occasion had to tell a news outlet that "x" is not my area of expertise, only for them to come back to me again on the same subject.
Just in case anyone wants the Excel formula to calculate the R value from the dashboard CSV download, column E is the daily case rate by specimen date:
Just copy the whole thing into any cell to the right of E2 in the download. I also did a bit of reading and it seems the incubation time is actually 5 days and the number of days infectious during that is 3.5 days which is hardcoded into the formula.
I think I'll write a script and UDF on monday to automate daily calculation, but I'll need to find the time.
You didn't use INDIRECT or nested IFs, so I'm afraid I can't take your Excel skills seriously
Comments
https://twitter.com/anacabrera/status/1317128792230498305?s=21
(Bear in mind that there appears to only be one person at Trafalgar. Which doesn't actually exist as any thing more than a website.)
No reponse.
This is not a regional crisis, but instead one that is intensifying almost everywhere in the country. Forty-four states and the District of Columbia have higher caseloads than in mid-September. The virus is spreading in rural communities in the heartland, far from the coastal cities hammered early in the pandemic.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/10/15/coronavirus-cases-surging/
Of course it is. Those places have a lot of people who are more susceptible as they didn't experience the spring surge.
Perhaps as a limited partnership or something that does NOT involve incorporation.
Anyway, sounds like ferreting out Cahaly's hidey-holes would be a PRIMEassignment for journalistic investigation.
Be reasonable.
Why?
Right/wrong direction 71-19.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ratfucking
...In August 2017, journalist Marcy Wheeler garnered the disapprobation of the Federal Communications Commission when she used the term in a radio broadcast. Wheeler maintained that the word has become a term of art in political science and is thus not an obscenity; FCC officials disagreed.
https://www.betfair.com/sport/politics
Though I acknowledge it’s not impossible.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.170917619
Though with all the jobs he's had since leaivng parliament ot makes me wonder what Cameron has been spending his time doing.
I haven't investigated further
Good times, good times.
They aren't.
Not according to Gov.uk.
The 7 day average is falling.
The five day figure is lower than the day before. Numbers are falling from 500-odd to more like 300.
Fox Clinton 50 Trump 45
PPP Clinton 50 Trump 44
Gravis Clinton 46 Trump 41
Emerson Clinton 50 Trump 43
Trafalgar Trump 49 Clinton 47
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/mi/michigan_trump_vs_clinton-5533.html#polls
a) Brexit
b) We have spent all the money, and
c) "... the quality of the UK's legislative and executive institutions has diminished ..."
https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-downgrades-the-UKs-ratings-to-Aa3-outlook-stable--PR_434172
Where is the evidence that he (as Trafalgar itself does not seem to actually exist) has actually done any polling?
Infact both Fox and Trafalgar were equally close to Trump’s true vote share.
Though some might argue it’s gins and tonic.
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/16/media/town-hall-ratings-biden-trump/index.html
Clinton average 48.6 (error of 1.3%)
The polling average was pretty good for Clinton’s share. Not so much for Trump.
I have previously related going to a high powered seminar on space investment - real, major investors, hosted by a major bank etc. To find out that the guy doing the talk was unaware of ITAR and what it meant.....
Which meant he knew less than *anyone* I've met who is vaguely into space stuff.
Keep in mind that federal & state campaign financing laws are a maze (or rather rats nest) of incredible complexity, thriving on very limited disclosure of the sources & disposition of (as the late Carl Sagan would say) millions and millions and millions of dollars. For example, independent expenditure (IE) campaigns, which is where the REAL money is in US politics today.
Further keep in mind that this landscape PLUS creative use of business laws makes it child's play for a real operator such as Cahaly to keep his dealings hidden behind a seeming cloak of invisibility.
You simply do NOT see much, certainly re: his finances, and not much more re: his political, electoral and "polling" activities. Would take a battalion of accountants, investigators, journalists, researchers and prosecutors to unravel much below the surface.
There is a strong chance Trump will be the first President in US history to be re elected having never won the popular vote because his vote is so efficiently spread in the rustbelt swing states, Hillary won California, the most populated US state, against Trump for example by more than Obama did against Romney and McCain and Biden will likely win New York and California by landslides too
Especially as novelty-shock factor has long ago worn thin, and millions have more than had there fill of Trumpsky.
Nothing new, as DT's version of "The Apprentice" displayed the same trajectory, and for pretty much same reason.
I'd escaped the 2015 wrath but theor SCon 2017 constituency odds did it for me.
Transferable skills are very real, but we overstate them and don't recognise when they do and don't apply.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/oct/16/tory-election-agent-guilty-of-tricking-voters-into-nominating-candidates
I suspect the US polls are pretty accurate. But we have to consider how effective the attempts at voter suppression will be. It's a lot easier to tell a pollster you'll vote for Biden that it actually is to do so in some places.
c.f. BoZo
The feckers that work for Cahaly do NOT need fecking LinkedIn to network within GOP political-consultant complex.
BTW yours truly used to work (many years ago) for a character who was a LOT like Cahaly. Man of mystery, manipulation, intrigue and skullduggery. Preferred cold cash thrown over the transom to checks & invoices. VERY sharp at working the angles. For example, in one campaign did BOTH candidate AND a (supposed) independent expenditure - at got state ethics people to agree that it was NOT illegal, due to way law was drafted.
=1+((LN(2)/(LOG(2/(((SUM(E2:E8)/7)/(SUM(E9:E15)/7))^(1/7)))/LOG(1+((((SUM(E2:E8)/7)/(SUM(E9:E15)/7))^(1/7))-1))))*5)+(3.5/5)*(1-(3.5/5))*((LN(2)/(LOG(2/(((SUM(E2:E8)/7)/(SUM(E9:E15)/7))^(1/7)))/LOG(1+((((SUM(E2:E8)/7)/(SUM(E9:E15)/7))^(1/7))-1))))*5)^2
Just copy the whole thing into any cell to the right of E2 in the download. I also did a bit of reading and it seems the incubation time is actually 5 days and the number of days infectious during that is 3.5 days which is hardcoded into the formula.
I think I'll write a script and UDF on monday to automate daily calculation, but I'll need to find the time.
People who are really good at one thing usually realise that they know naff all about things outside of the field. "It must be at least as hard as this very hard field I'm an expert in."
But the news outlets don't really care - all they want is someone with the gift of the gab who is sufficiently photogenic and has a good voice. I have on more than one occasion had to tell a news outlet that "x" is not my area of expertise, only for them to come back to me again on the same subject.