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First0
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Second! The return of the undefined discussion!0
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Sorry for the technical issues0
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Trump does not even necessarily need to come from behind now, according to some state polls from key swing states in the last few days he is ahead in enough swing states for a narrow re election in the EC, even if he is likely to lose the national popular vote again.
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1317099245346955270?s=20
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1316976280026386432?s=20
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1316814141433303042?s=20
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1316729220903641094?s=20
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1316403256520777728?s=200 -
Damn swing states, always letting people down.HYUFD said:Trump does not even necessarily need to come from behind now, according to some state polls from key swing states in the last few days he is ahead in enough swing states for a narrow re election in the EC, even if he is likely to lose the national popular vote again.
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1317099245346955270?s=20
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1316976280026386432?s=20
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1316814141433303042?s=20
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1316729220903641094?s=20
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1316403256520777728?s=200 -
People should know this about Trafalgar's history - Robert Cahaly is the face of the company on twitter.HYUFD said:Trump does not even necessarily need to come from behind now, according to some state polls from key swing states in the last few days he is ahead in enough swing states for a narrow re election, even if he is likely to lose the national popular vote again.
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1317099245346955270?s=20
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1316403256520777728?s=20
https://www.wistv.com/story/13429729/gop-consultant-to-face-sled-arrest-for-illegal-robocalls/
41-year-old Robert Cahaly faces charges that he purchased, then disseminated computer-generated calls from an automatically dialed announcing service to potential South Carolina voters on September 23.
According to SLED, the calls were political in nature and were allegedly made without properly disclosing the identity of the originating party to the call recipients, which is in violation of SC Code 16-17-446.
We previously reported that the Ken Ard's campaign manager was accused of robocalling and that there was a warrant issued for his arrest. In fact, the campaign manager is not accused of robocalling and is not in trouble with the law.
SLED has determined that the calls were made through a Richland County landline telephone number owned by Gadsden and Greene Strategies, a company owned by Cahaly.
The calls, according to SLED, were allegedly made to numerous voters in House Districts 26 (Greenville and Pickens), 78 (Richland County), 79 (Kershaw and Richland Counties), 98 (Dorchester County), 108 (Charleston and Georgetown Counties) and 115 (James Island and Folly Beach).
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Who cares? They forecast Trump would win Michigan and Florida right in 2016 and that is all that mattersPulpstar said:
People should know this about Trafalgar's history - Robert Cahaly is the face of the company on twitter.HYUFD said:Trump does not even necessarily need to come from behind now, according to some state polls from key swing states in the last few days he is ahead in enough swing states for a narrow re election, even if he is likely to lose the national popular vote again.
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1317099245346955270?s=20
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1316403256520777728?s=20
https://www.wistv.com/story/13429729/gop-consultant-to-face-sled-arrest-for-illegal-robocalls/
41-year-old Robert Cahaly faces charges that he purchased, then disseminated computer-generated calls from an automatically dialed announcing service to potential South Carolina voters on September 23.
According to SLED, the calls were political in nature and were allegedly made without properly disclosing the identity of the originating party to the call recipients, which is in violation of SC Code 16-17-446.
We previously reported that the Ken Ard's campaign manager was accused of robocalling and that there was a warrant issued for his arrest. In fact, the campaign manager is not accused of robocalling and is not in trouble with the law.
SLED has determined that the calls were made through a Richland County landline telephone number owned by Gadsden and Greene Strategies, a company owned by Cahaly.
The calls, according to SLED, were allegedly made to numerous voters in House Districts 26 (Greenville and Pickens), 78 (Richland County), 79 (Kershaw and Richland Counties), 98 (Dorchester County), 108 (Charleston and Georgetown Counties) and 115 (James Island and Folly Beach).0 -
So what? That doesn’t make them the “gold standard”, that just makes them right in a few states last time. They were wrong in a few too.HYUFD said:
Who cares? They forecast Trump would win Michigan and Florida right in 2016 and that is all that mattersPulpstar said:
People should know this about Trafalgar's history - Robert Cahaly is the face of the company on twitter.HYUFD said:Trump does not even necessarily need to come from behind now, according to some state polls from key swing states in the last few days he is ahead in enough swing states for a narrow re election, even if he is likely to lose the national popular vote again.
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1317099245346955270?s=20
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1316403256520777728?s=20
https://www.wistv.com/story/13429729/gop-consultant-to-face-sled-arrest-for-illegal-robocalls/
41-year-old Robert Cahaly faces charges that he purchased, then disseminated computer-generated calls from an automatically dialed announcing service to potential South Carolina voters on September 23.
According to SLED, the calls were political in nature and were allegedly made without properly disclosing the identity of the originating party to the call recipients, which is in violation of SC Code 16-17-446.
We previously reported that the Ken Ard's campaign manager was accused of robocalling and that there was a warrant issued for his arrest. In fact, the campaign manager is not accused of robocalling and is not in trouble with the law.
SLED has determined that the calls were made through a Richland County landline telephone number owned by Gadsden and Greene Strategies, a company owned by Cahaly.
The calls, according to SLED, were allegedly made to numerous voters in House Districts 26 (Greenville and Pickens), 78 (Richland County), 79 (Kershaw and Richland Counties), 98 (Dorchester County), 108 (Charleston and Georgetown Counties) and 115 (James Island and Folly Beach).1 -
It's like saying Lord Ashcroft's constituency polls from 2015 were the gold standard because they got most of the Scottish seats right.Gallowgate said:
So what? That doesn’t make them the “gold standard”, that just makes them right in a few states last time. They were wrong in a few too.HYUFD said:
Who cares? They forecast Trump would win Michigan and Florida right in 2016 and that is all that mattersPulpstar said:
People should know this about Trafalgar's history - Robert Cahaly is the face of the company on twitter.HYUFD said:Trump does not even necessarily need to come from behind now, according to some state polls from key swing states in the last few days he is ahead in enough swing states for a narrow re election, even if he is likely to lose the national popular vote again.
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1317099245346955270?s=20
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1316403256520777728?s=20
https://www.wistv.com/story/13429729/gop-consultant-to-face-sled-arrest-for-illegal-robocalls/
41-year-old Robert Cahaly faces charges that he purchased, then disseminated computer-generated calls from an automatically dialed announcing service to potential South Carolina voters on September 23.
According to SLED, the calls were political in nature and were allegedly made without properly disclosing the identity of the originating party to the call recipients, which is in violation of SC Code 16-17-446.
We previously reported that the Ken Ard's campaign manager was accused of robocalling and that there was a warrant issued for his arrest. In fact, the campaign manager is not accused of robocalling and is not in trouble with the law.
SLED has determined that the calls were made through a Richland County landline telephone number owned by Gadsden and Greene Strategies, a company owned by Cahaly.
The calls, according to SLED, were allegedly made to numerous voters in House Districts 26 (Greenville and Pickens), 78 (Richland County), 79 (Kershaw and Richland Counties), 98 (Dorchester County), 108 (Charleston and Georgetown Counties) and 115 (James Island and Folly Beach).
But they were dire in England & Wales.0 -
FPT - more on the Ellon result (and stressing also it's crap for the LDs and Labour, as one would imagine in a straight battle to the death between the SNP and the Tories in the Brexit and covid era):
http://ballotbox.scot/ellon-by-election-result0 -
Prior to this election I will produce my forecast for every state.
I will predict either Biden or Trump to get 100% in each state.
Come next election I will use those states that I "called correctly" as evidence that I should be listened to in those states in 2024.2 -
With all due respect, it does matter.HYUFD said:
Who cares? They forecast Trump would win Michigan and Florida right in 2016 and that is all that mattersPulpstar said:
People should know this about Trafalgar's history - Robert Cahaly is the face of the company on twitter.HYUFD said:Trump does not even necessarily need to come from behind now, according to some state polls from key swing states in the last few days he is ahead in enough swing states for a narrow re election, even if he is likely to lose the national popular vote again.
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1317099245346955270?s=20
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1316403256520777728?s=20
https://www.wistv.com/story/13429729/gop-consultant-to-face-sled-arrest-for-illegal-robocalls/
41-year-old Robert Cahaly faces charges that he purchased, then disseminated computer-generated calls from an automatically dialed announcing service to potential South Carolina voters on September 23.
According to SLED, the calls were political in nature and were allegedly made without properly disclosing the identity of the originating party to the call recipients, which is in violation of SC Code 16-17-446.
We previously reported that the Ken Ard's campaign manager was accused of robocalling and that there was a warrant issued for his arrest. In fact, the campaign manager is not accused of robocalling and is not in trouble with the law.
SLED has determined that the calls were made through a Richland County landline telephone number owned by Gadsden and Greene Strategies, a company owned by Cahaly.
The calls, according to SLED, were allegedly made to numerous voters in House Districts 26 (Greenville and Pickens), 78 (Richland County), 79 (Kershaw and Richland Counties), 98 (Dorchester County), 108 (Charleston and Georgetown Counties) and 115 (James Island and Folly Beach).
If Trafalgar is a genuine pollster, then we need to take their results seriously.
If they simply take other pollsters results, and "right shift" then they're like Derren Brown in The System. And were simply lucky. And we should give them no mind at all.2 -
It isn't, the only state Trafalgar failed to forecast the winner in 2016 was Nevada, a much better record than most state pollsters thenTheScreamingEagles said:
It's like saying Lord Ashcroft's constituency polls from 2015 were the gold standard because they got most of the Scottish seats right.Gallowgate said:
So what? That doesn’t make them the “gold standard”, that just makes them right in a few states last time. They were wrong in a few too.HYUFD said:
Who cares? They forecast Trump would win Michigan and Florida right in 2016 and that is all that mattersPulpstar said:
People should know this about Trafalgar's history - Robert Cahaly is the face of the company on twitter.HYUFD said:Trump does not even necessarily need to come from behind now, according to some state polls from key swing states in the last few days he is ahead in enough swing states for a narrow re election, even if he is likely to lose the national popular vote again.
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1317099245346955270?s=20
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1316403256520777728?s=20
https://www.wistv.com/story/13429729/gop-consultant-to-face-sled-arrest-for-illegal-robocalls/
41-year-old Robert Cahaly faces charges that he purchased, then disseminated computer-generated calls from an automatically dialed announcing service to potential South Carolina voters on September 23.
According to SLED, the calls were political in nature and were allegedly made without properly disclosing the identity of the originating party to the call recipients, which is in violation of SC Code 16-17-446.
We previously reported that the Ken Ard's campaign manager was accused of robocalling and that there was a warrant issued for his arrest. In fact, the campaign manager is not accused of robocalling and is not in trouble with the law.
SLED has determined that the calls were made through a Richland County landline telephone number owned by Gadsden and Greene Strategies, a company owned by Cahaly.
The calls, according to SLED, were allegedly made to numerous voters in House Districts 26 (Greenville and Pickens), 78 (Richland County), 79 (Kershaw and Richland Counties), 98 (Dorchester County), 108 (Charleston and Georgetown Counties) and 115 (James Island and Folly Beach).
But they were dire in England & Wales.0 -
PS for HYUFD - the Tory vote went down about 10 percentage points. It is not a FPTP seat.Carnyx said:FPT - more on the Ellon result (and stressing also it's crap for the LDs and Labour, as one would imagine in a straight battle to the death between the SNP and the Tories in the Brexit and covid era):
http://ballotbox.scot/ellon-by-election-result0 -
Excellent piece of work, Quincel. Thank you. Here's a quick run through of 'other factors'.
1. Differential turnout. The surprising thing last time was that HS white males turned out in greater numbers than ever before. Who is to say that they will do so again? Conversely, black and hispanic voters didn't show up in the numbers expected. Again, is this likely to repeat in 2020. We just don't know.
2. Genuine swing. Quite a lot of voters appear to have made up their minds late in 2016 and they broke heavily for Trump. This is unlikely to happen again if only because the number of undecideds is relatively small.
3. Elasticity. Voters vary enormously from State to State in respect of their propensity to switch votes. Voters in Georgia are relatively 'inelastic', those in Arizona, Florida, and North Carolina less so.
4. Cheating! Voter suppression, gerrymandering, fraud and intimidation can make a nonsense of any poll.
As a fellow Biden punter I think only 4. really bothers me because it's unquantifiable, but my democratic instincts lead me to think the impact won't be that great.
I certainly hope so.3 -
That's not good enough. I pay £0 a month to access this site, and I demand my money's worth.MikeSmithson said:Sorry for the technical issues
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That is cherry HARVESTING.HYUFD said:Trump does not even necessarily need to come from behind now, according to some state polls from key swing states in the last few days he is ahead in enough swing states for a narrow re election in the EC, even if he is likely to lose the national popular vote again.
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1317099245346955270?s=20
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1316976280026386432?s=20
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1316814141433303042?s=20
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1316729220903641094?s=20
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1316403256520777728?s=200 -
HYUFD you are blatantly just cherrypicking polls, generally from lower-tier or biased pollsters.
For Arizona, 538 added polls from four firms yesterday. Three of them had a Biden lead in all versions of their polls, including Monmouth University (rated A+) where Biden's lead ranged from +2 to +7. You highlighted the only pollster (C/D rated) who found any Trump lead and it's by 1% so MOE from zero.
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Excellent header; Trump looks like toast.2
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Looking at the results, it looks as if Tory toxicity overrides unionism in SLD and SLAB voters.Carnyx said:
PS for HYUFD - the Tory vote went down about 10 percentage points. It is not a FPTP seat.Carnyx said:FPT - more on the Ellon result (and stressing also it's crap for the LDs and Labour, as one would imagine in a straight battle to the death between the SNP and the Tories in the Brexit and covid era):
http://ballotbox.scot/ellon-by-election-result
Doomed, the union is doomed...0 -
0
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I’ll take your word for that as a gentleman and a train enthusiast.tlg86 said:Excellent header; Trump looks like toast.
I’ll have to take your word because I can’t see it, so I’ll have to confine myself to awesome punning on random topics.
Like I usually do, come to think of it.0 -
Fabulous post on the US polling. I'm much encouraged. I have also been cheered by Biden winning more TV eyeballs than Trump, not something I thought was remotely possible.0
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If that is true, it puts Scotch subsample misdemeanours in the shade.Freggles said:HYUFD you are blatantly just cherrypicking polls, generally from lower-tier or biased pollsters.
For Arizona, 538 added polls from four firms yesterday. Three of them had a Biden lead in all versions of their polls, including Monmouth University (rated A+) where Biden's lead ranged from +2 to +7. You highlighted the only pollster (C/D rated) who found any Trump lead and it's by 1% so MOE from zero.0 -
Surprisingly LGBT friendly lot there.williamglenn said:Trump still has some loyal voters.
https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1317156241190387716?s=211 -
MAGA has lost it's cool from 2016.williamglenn said:Trump still has some loyal voters.
https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1317156241190387716?s=210 -
They claim to do both. See the last page of their PDFs.Alistair said:
I thought they claimed to do robo call polling?rcs1000 said:
I don't believe Trafalgar does polling. I believe they take existing polls and just shift them six points to the right.HYUFD said:
Yet if Trump is re elected they would still be the Gold Standardrcs1000 said:I'm calling it:
Trafalgar is not a real pollster.
They aren't a company. They have no employees. They have no clients.
They simply copy and paste other pollsters and add a slight rightward bias.
If they were real:
(1) Where's the corporate entity? Right now, Trafalgar is a website (a dot org) which posts a few claimed polls every now and then. Real businesses are incorporated. Trafalgar is not.
(2) They claim to use an online panel. Great! That's just like Opinium, YouGov, SurveyMonkey, etc. And you know what all those organisatons have in common? (Apart from actually existing) Yes, you can join their panel. Trafalgar has no way of joining their panel. So where does it come from?
(3) They would have a business - you know, they'd be commissioned by actual newspapers and corporates to do research. Yet they don't.
So, this a "pollster" who only does polls every two years (what happens to their panel in between?) and which doesn't exist an as incorporated entity and which appears to have no employees or sources of revenue.
You can call that gold standard if you like, I call bullshit.
Of course, the PDF claims of how they do their polling doesn't match their website.
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Also, their website and email contact details have different domains, which is odd to say the least.rcs1000 said:
They claim to do both. See the last page of their PDFs.Alistair said:
I thought they claimed to do robo call polling?rcs1000 said:
I don't believe Trafalgar does polling. I believe they take existing polls and just shift them six points to the right.HYUFD said:
Yet if Trump is re elected they would still be the Gold Standardrcs1000 said:I'm calling it:
Trafalgar is not a real pollster.
They aren't a company. They have no employees. They have no clients.
They simply copy and paste other pollsters and add a slight rightward bias.
If they were real:
(1) Where's the corporate entity? Right now, Trafalgar is a website (a dot org) which posts a few claimed polls every now and then. Real businesses are incorporated. Trafalgar is not.
(2) They claim to use an online panel. Great! That's just like Opinium, YouGov, SurveyMonkey, etc. And you know what all those organisatons have in common? (Apart from actually existing) Yes, you can join their panel. Trafalgar has no way of joining their panel. So where does it come from?
(3) They would have a business - you know, they'd be commissioned by actual newspapers and corporates to do research. Yet they don't.
So, this a "pollster" who only does polls every two years (what happens to their panel in between?) and which doesn't exist an as incorporated entity and which appears to have no employees or sources of revenue.
You can call that gold standard if you like, I call bullshit.
Of course, the PDF claims of how they do their polling doesn't match their website.0 -
4 way battle for 3rd place.
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1317174347447009287
Brexit party might be in with a shot after Boris capitulates.1 -
Is @HYUFD ‘s analysis simply that you take the best poll for Trump in every state to forecast the outcome? That’s fair enough if so, but for betting purposes I just need to be clear about the cypher.0
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If Trafalgar systematically take other polls and skew them to the Republicans/Trump by 6%, and last time the polls all had a systematic bias to the Democrats of 6% then last time they would have been very successful. If all the other pollsters have now updated their methodology to account for this bias then Trafalgar will look a bit stupid if they've based their assumptions on the same methodology.
How did they do in the mid terms (when the other pollsters may even have over-corrected for the Trump effect, as opposed to the Republican effect)?0 -
Re: Trafalgar, note that its principle Robert Cahaly is a Republican hack from WAY back.
Indeed, learned his trade from the late Lee Atwater (remember him) who gave advanced courses in political dirty tricks to a generation of GOP operatives.
Check out what Cahaly says about himself on Trafalgar website:
https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/robert-cahaly-2/
"As President of the Trafalgar Group, Cahaly’s expertise includes strategic communications, public relations, polling, new/social media utilization, team building/management, federal/state election compliance, campaign development, and GOTV. He is often quoted in national and state media for his political perspective. He is also a sought-after speaker and lecturer on campaign training, issue advocacy, and public relations topics. He has spoken for/to groups ranging from the RNC, state GOPs, and legislative caucuses, to conservative interest groups such as GOPAC, Tea Party Patriots, Tea Party Express, and The Leadership Institute. He has been speaking for over 15 years in 43 states in front of 4000+ candidates, elected officials, and trainees."0 -
No. The previous cycles forecasts don't matter at all. 2016 itself proved that when a number of pundits who called 2008 and 2012 right got egg all over their faces. Sam Wang was considered something of a guru in 2016 having got every election right from 2004 to 2012. He screwed up and you barely hear from him now. You are placing all of your (barely repressed hopes) for a Trump win on once single pollster, Trafalgar, having got two states right in 2016. They almost alone got Wis and MI right (others called Florida for Trump too) but Nevada spectacularly wrong. They also predicted Trump would sweep the under 25 vote.HYUFD said:
Who cares? They forecast Trump would win Michigan and Florida right in 2016 and that is all that mattersPulpstar said:
People should know this about Trafalgar's history - Robert Cahaly is the face of the company on twitter.
https://www.wistv.com/story/13429729/gop-consultant-to-face-sled-arrest-for-illegal-robocalls/
41-year-old Robert Cahaly faces charges that he purchased, then disseminated computer-generated calls from an automatically dialed announcing service to potential South Carolina voters on September 23.
According to SLED, the calls were political in nature and were allegedly made without properly disclosing the identity of the originating party to the call recipients, which is in violation of SC Code 16-17-446.
We previously reported that the Ken Ard's campaign manager was accused of robocalling and that there was a warrant issued for his arrest. In fact, the campaign manager is not accused of robocalling and is not in trouble with the law.
SLED has determined that the calls were made through a Richland County landline telephone number owned by Gadsden and Greene Strategies, a company owned by Cahaly.
The calls, according to SLED, were allegedly made to numerous voters in House Districts 26 (Greenville and Pickens), 78 (Richland County), 79 (Kershaw and Richland Counties), 98 (Dorchester County), 108 (Charleston and Georgetown Counties) and 115 (James Island and Folly Beach).
The problem you have is this. Many polls (including your beloved Trafalgar who got Nevada wrong by 5 points) got various state polls (not national) wrong in 2016. But not by much. For Trump to win the polling acuracy has to have got significantly worse, not better. The most innacurate of the RCP polling averages in 2016 got the result wrong by around 4 percent. The RCP average for Michigan tonight is 6.7% in Biden's favour. In 2016 RCP had Clinton up by 3.7% in Michigan on the eve of the election. Trump won by a wafer thin 0.3%. That means the polling companies, as a whole, have to be twice as bad as last time. In my view the evidence points to Trafalgar having been lucky.0 -
Why is appearing like toast a bad thing? Any ideas as to where this came from?ydoethur said:
I’ll take your word for that as a gentleman and a train enthusiast.tlg86 said:Excellent header; Trump looks like toast.
I’ll have to take your word because I can’t see it, so I’ll have to confine myself to awesome punning on random topics.
Like I usually do, come to think of it.
I rather like toast.0 -
You’re right, it’s nothing like Ashcroft.HYUFD said:
It isn't, the only state Trafalgar failed to forecast the winner in 2016 was Nevada, a much better record than most state pollsters thenTheScreamingEagles said:
It's like saying Lord Ashcroft's constituency polls from 2015 were the gold standard because they got most of the Scottish seats right.Gallowgate said:
So what? That doesn’t make them the “gold standard”, that just makes them right in a few states last time. They were wrong in a few too.HYUFD said:
Who cares? They forecast Trump would win Michigan and Florida right in 2016 and that is all that mattersPulpstar said:
People should know this about Trafalgar's history - Robert Cahaly is the face of the company on twitter.HYUFD said:Trump does not even necessarily need to come from behind now, according to some state polls from key swing states in the last few days he is ahead in enough swing states for a narrow re election, even if he is likely to lose the national popular vote again.
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1317099245346955270?s=20
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1316403256520777728?s=20
https://www.wistv.com/story/13429729/gop-consultant-to-face-sled-arrest-for-illegal-robocalls/
41-year-old Robert Cahaly faces charges that he purchased, then disseminated computer-generated calls from an automatically dialed announcing service to potential South Carolina voters on September 23.
According to SLED, the calls were political in nature and were allegedly made without properly disclosing the identity of the originating party to the call recipients, which is in violation of SC Code 16-17-446.
We previously reported that the Ken Ard's campaign manager was accused of robocalling and that there was a warrant issued for his arrest. In fact, the campaign manager is not accused of robocalling and is not in trouble with the law.
SLED has determined that the calls were made through a Richland County landline telephone number owned by Gadsden and Greene Strategies, a company owned by Cahaly.
The calls, according to SLED, were allegedly made to numerous voters in House Districts 26 (Greenville and Pickens), 78 (Richland County), 79 (Kershaw and Richland Counties), 98 (Dorchester County), 108 (Charleston and Georgetown Counties) and 115 (James Island and Folly Beach).
But they were dire in England & Wales.
There is compelling evidence that Ashcroft actually conducts polls.0 -
The last time the Brexit Party surged in the polls at the Tories expense it flattered the strength of Labour's position.Pulpstar said:4 way battle for 3rd place.
witter.com/YouGov/status/1317174347447009287
Brexit party might be in with a shot after Boris capitulates.0 -
Better than that, you can have it back.CatMan said:
That's not good enough. I pay £0 a month to access this site, and I demand my money's worth.MikeSmithson said:Sorry for the technical issues
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Rcs suggests Trafalgar polls are dodgy. Next thing you know the site is suffering "technical problems". Coincidence?
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May be a surprise to (elderly) PBers and others, but my guess is that most of the Putinists cavorting to "YMCA" are NOT aware that it was once (a couple of generations ago) a gay anthem.dixiedean said:
Surprisingly LGBT friendly lot there.williamglenn said:Trump still has some loyal voters.
https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1317156241190387716?s=21
For most people, YMCA is simply a fun old pop song from the days when disco was king.0 -
No there isn't, he just rebadges other people's output. He isn't a BPC member.Nigelb said:
You’re right, it’s nothing like Ashcroft.HYUFD said:
It isn't, the only state Trafalgar failed to forecast the winner in 2016 was Nevada, a much better record than most state pollsters thenTheScreamingEagles said:
It's like saying Lord Ashcroft's constituency polls from 2015 were the gold standard because they got most of the Scottish seats right.Gallowgate said:
So what? That doesn’t make them the “gold standard”, that just makes them right in a few states last time. They were wrong in a few too.HYUFD said:
Who cares? They forecast Trump would win Michigan and Florida right in 2016 and that is all that mattersPulpstar said:
People should know this about Trafalgar's history - Robert Cahaly is the face of the company on twitter.HYUFD said:Trump does not even necessarily need to come from behind now, according to some state polls from key swing states in the last few days he is ahead in enough swing states for a narrow re election, even if he is likely to lose the national popular vote again.
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1317099245346955270?s=20
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1316403256520777728?s=20
https://www.wistv.com/story/13429729/gop-consultant-to-face-sled-arrest-for-illegal-robocalls/
41-year-old Robert Cahaly faces charges that he purchased, then disseminated computer-generated calls from an automatically dialed announcing service to potential South Carolina voters on September 23.
According to SLED, the calls were political in nature and were allegedly made without properly disclosing the identity of the originating party to the call recipients, which is in violation of SC Code 16-17-446.
We previously reported that the Ken Ard's campaign manager was accused of robocalling and that there was a warrant issued for his arrest. In fact, the campaign manager is not accused of robocalling and is not in trouble with the law.
SLED has determined that the calls were made through a Richland County landline telephone number owned by Gadsden and Greene Strategies, a company owned by Cahaly.
The calls, according to SLED, were allegedly made to numerous voters in House Districts 26 (Greenville and Pickens), 78 (Richland County), 79 (Kershaw and Richland Counties), 98 (Dorchester County), 108 (Charleston and Georgetown Counties) and 115 (James Island and Folly Beach).
But they were dire in England & Wales.
There is compelling evidence that Ashcroft actually conducts polls.0 -
Burnham, once again, seems to have massively overplayed his hand. He's like a god-given lesson in 'overplaying your hand'. I guess some religions may in fact see him as the true God of 'overplaying hands'.
0 -
Re: Trafalgar & Robert Cahaly, check out this take from SC newspaper:
https://www.postandcourier.com/free-times/archives/an-ard-rains-gonna-fall-the-political-obituary-of-ken-ard/article_65028b3a-7c55-511b-87c3-7148892a3fd3.html
"Enter Robert Cahaly, an infamous shadowy political consultant in the vein of the late Lee Atwater. A dozen years ago, The State newspaper’s legendary political reporter Lee Bandy described Cahaly as “a cloak-and-dagger GOP activist who likes to operate in secret.”
If a Southern Gothic movie were made about the Ken Ard story, it’s doubtful the best casting crew could find a better character to play Ard’s consultant. In describing him, one Ard confidant called Cahaly “an interesting-looking, little, chubby fellow with glasses and bowties — bowtie man — and kind of a weird, unusual kind of personality.”
And indeed, Cahaly had once even acted out such a role on the silver screen. According to his bio at the Leadership Institute, he played an eccentric Southern pollster in a 2005 independent film called In the Arena, about a fictitious presidential race during the Iowa caucuses.
In real life, Cahaly is a longtime GOP operative who was a senior aide in the campaigns of former Gov. David Beasley and also worked for Beasley in the governor’s office. If political consulting outfits in South Carolina are the like the Five Families in The Godfather, Cahaly would be a made man."0 -
Evening again all
Excellent piece from @Quincel for which many thanks.
I try to look at the crosstabs of the various polls (where published) and I simply don't see how the mistakes of 2016 can or will be repeated. The pollsters, unlike many of us, learn from their mistakes and the sampling for this time from those who publish it seems more reasonable.
Without wishing to get anyone into trouble, I do detect a degree of political-led bias in some of the polling, If you are doing a poll for the "Center for American Greatness" which, it's fair to say, is not wholly sympathetic to Biden, a poll showing Trump doing well or closing in is what you would probably like to produce for your "paymasters".
The same is doubtless true on the Democrat side.
"It's the hope that kills you", a wise man once said. The truth is Biden has moved the battle to Iowa, Ohio and Georgia rather than Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania which (Trafalgar polls notwithstanding) look in the bag for Biden at this time and those 46 EC votes get him over the line if he retains all Hillary's states.
If the likes of Florida, North Carolina and Arizona all follow (and while there are odd polls still showing a Trump lead in each of those states, the weight of polling suggest Biden is ahead), Biden wins easily.0 -
Are you suggesting that a Battle of Trafalgar is underway?CatMan said:Rcs suggests Trafalgar polls are dodgy. Next thing you know the site is suffering "technical problems". Coincidence?
With RCS as Nelson?0 -
Is that a serious suggestion? Is there any particular reason to suspect that's happening?alex_ said:If Trafalgar systematically take other polls and skew them to the Republicans/Trump by 6%, and last time the polls all had a systematic bias to the Democrats of 6% then last time they would have been very successful. If all the other pollsters have now updated their methodology to account for this bias then Trafalgar will look a bit stupid if they've based their assumptions on the same methodology.
In principle opinion polling is one of the defences that a democracy has against an election being stolen by ballot-stuffing, fraudulent counts and similar means.
If a supposed polling company is intentionally producing poll results to be biased then the intention is to hide the blatant stealing of an election.0 -
They did OK, but not exceptionally. They called FL wrong directionally, and they overstated the gap in favour of the Republican positions by:alex_ said:If Trafalgar systematically take other polls and skew them to the Republicans/Trump by 6%, and last time the polls all had a systematic bias to the Democrats of 6% then last time they would have been very successful. If all the other pollsters have now updated their methodology to account for this bias then Trafalgar will look a bit stupid if they've based their assumptions on the same methodology.
How did they do in the mid terms (when the other pollsters may even have over-corrected for the Trump effect, as opposed to the Republican effect)?
Montana - 4 points
Texas - 5 points
Nevada - 3 points
But they were broadly in line in Arizona and Michigan. Their average error was just under 4 points, which would make them a B- pollster.0 -
They suggestion by others (not myself - i have no idea) on this thread is that Trafalgar isLostPassword said:
Is that a serious suggestion? Is there any particular reason to suspect that's happening?alex_ said:If Trafalgar systematically take other polls and skew them to the Republicans/Trump by 6%, and last time the polls all had a systematic bias to the Democrats of 6% then last time they would have been very successful. If all the other pollsters have now updated their methodology to account for this bias then Trafalgar will look a bit stupid if they've based their assumptions on the same methodology.
In principle opinion polling is one of the defences that a democracy has against an election being stolen by ballot-stuffing, fraudulent counts and similar means.
If a supposed polling company is intentionally producing poll results to be biased then the intention is to hide the blatant stealing of an election.
1) Not a polling company and doesn't actually do any polls
2) Produces its "polls" by taking an average of everyone else's and adding 6% to the Trump/Republican percentage.0 -
There's no evidence that Trafalgar is a real, commercial organisation.LostPassword said:
Is that a serious suggestion? Is there any particular reason to suspect that's happening?alex_ said:If Trafalgar systematically take other polls and skew them to the Republicans/Trump by 6%, and last time the polls all had a systematic bias to the Democrats of 6% then last time they would have been very successful. If all the other pollsters have now updated their methodology to account for this bias then Trafalgar will look a bit stupid if they've based their assumptions on the same methodology.
In principle opinion polling is one of the defences that a democracy has against an election being stolen by ballot-stuffing, fraudulent counts and similar means.
If a supposed polling company is intentionally producing poll results to be biased then the intention is to hide the blatant stealing of an election.
It's not incorporated. It doesn't appear to have any employees or a business address. It claims on its PDFs to use a combination of calls and an on-line panel, yet there's no way to join the panel. It doesn't seem to have any customers (so where does the money come from to do these polls), and is dormant in between elections years. And it's run by a Republican operative.
0 -
I pretty much live off it.Omnium said:
Why is appearing like toast a bad thing? Any ideas as to where this came from?ydoethur said:
I’ll take your word for that as a gentleman and a train enthusiast.tlg86 said:Excellent header; Trump looks like toast.
I’ll have to take your word because I can’t see it, so I’ll have to confine myself to awesome punning on random topics.
Like I usually do, come to think of it.
I rather like toast.0 -
Possible beheading in Paris.0
-
@HYUFD
What is your current EC forecast?0 -
I now have Robert Cahaly's mobile phone number.
Shall I call him and ask him these questions?0 -
https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1317160061240791044?s=21MaxPB said:Possible beheading in Paris.
0 -
Don't think idea behind Trafalgar's public "polling" is stealing elections. Instead, purpose is to INFLUENCE elections, by assuring Republicans and Rep leaners that they are NOT voting for losers. Which plenty of people do NOT like to do.LostPassword said:
Is that a serious suggestion? Is there any particular reason to suspect that's happening?alex_ said:If Trafalgar systematically take other polls and skew them to the Republicans/Trump by 6%, and last time the polls all had a systematic bias to the Democrats of 6% then last time they would have been very successful. If all the other pollsters have now updated their methodology to account for this bias then Trafalgar will look a bit stupid if they've based their assumptions on the same methodology.
In principle opinion polling is one of the defences that a democracy has against an election being stolen by ballot-stuffing, fraudulent counts and similar means.
If a supposed polling company is intentionally producing poll results to be biased then the intention is to hide the blatant stealing of an election.
My guess is that they may be giving less skewed versions of their polling (along with cross tabs & details NOT revealed publicly) to Cahaly's GOP paymasters.
OR (as Robert suggests) they do NOT do any polling at all, just manipulate someone else's numbers.
Certainly no sensible GOP strategist is relying upon Trafalgar's published numbers.
Instead, Trumpsky campaign, RNC and other GOP campaigns are doing LOTS of internal polling (just like Biden, DSC, DCCC, etc.). Which is pretty obviously NOT going as well as they'd like & hope.0 -
Trafalgar 2016
(Difference to actual result in brackets).
Colorado
Trump 44% (+1)
Clinton 45% (-3)
Florida
Trump 50% (+1)
Clinton 46% (-2)
Georgia
Trump 52% (+2)
Clinton 45% (-)
Michigan
Trump 49% (+1)
Clinton 47% (-1)
Nevada
Trump 50% (+4)
Clinton 45% (-3)
North Carolina
Trump 49% (-1)
Clinton 44% (-3)
Ohio
Trump 49% (-3)
Clinton 44% (-)
Pennsylvania
Trump 48% (-)
Clinton 47% (-1)
South Carolina
Trump 53% (-2)
Clinton 38% (-3)
Utah
Trump 40% (-6)
Clinton 30% (+2)
So all over the place really. Yes they may have got the winner right more often than not, but they certainly are not what you’d call “accurate”.0 -
0
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Go for it! Though expect you'd have better luck getting straight (or any) answers via a seance with the ghost of Lee Atwater.rcs1000 said:I now have Robert Cahaly's mobile phone number.
Shall I call him and ask him these questions?
0 -
I think it’s a reference to the fact that bread was traditionally only toasted when it was too stale to eat fresh. So it represented the very last stage of a loaf and signified it would soon be gone.Omnium said:
Why is appearing like toast a bad thing? Any ideas as to where this came from?ydoethur said:
I’ll take your word for that as a gentleman and a train enthusiast.tlg86 said:Excellent header; Trump looks like toast.
I’ll have to take your word because I can’t see it, so I’ll have to confine myself to awesome punning on random topics.
Like I usually do, come to think of it.
I rather like toast.0 -
As Clinton won Nevada fairly comfortably, I'm not sure your differences are correct.Gallowgate said:
Nevada
Trump 50% (+2)
Clinton 45% (-1)0 -
The only response is to make teaching this mandatory in all of France (and Europe) no religion is protected from free speech.williamglenn said:0 -
Apologies. I mixed up Trump and Clinton! Edited.rcs1000 said:
As Clinton won Nevada fairly comfortably, I'm not sure your differences are correct.Gallowgate said:
Nevada
Trump 50% (+2)
Clinton 45% (-1)0 -
I think this is what Mike Coupe was brought in to roll out. I wonder which test they are using, Nanopore or DNA Nudge. The Nanopore test looks like a much better bet to me and if it is successful it should be used for testing at venues, airports and train stations.Nigelb said:A step in the right direction.
https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/13171709481355468810 -
Superb article, thanks @Quincel.1
-
How exciting. I just got a "possible exposure notification" on my Covid-19 app.
Unfortunately before i had finished reading it i got another one advising my "potential exposure" had been analysed and i was safe to carry on as normal. Lucky i was a quick reader or i would have missed it, because i can't seem to find the messages any more!0 -
With interest, of course. Maybe 10%?Nigelb said:
Better than that, you can have it back.CatMan said:
That's not good enough. I pay £0 a month to access this site, and I demand my money's worth.MikeSmithson said:Sorry for the technical issues
0 -
I'd guess some butter on top? (Anything else with it is by-the-by)tlg86 said:
I pretty much live off it.Omnium said:
Why is appearing like toast a bad thing? Any ideas as to where this came from?ydoethur said:
I’ll take your word for that as a gentleman and a train enthusiast.tlg86 said:Excellent header; Trump looks like toast.
I’ll have to take your word because I can’t see it, so I’ll have to confine myself to awesome punning on random topics.
Like I usually do, come to think of it.
I rather like toast.
However as a toast fan you have to worry about the bread. A lot of the flashier consumer breads are far too lightweight to stand up to toasting well. The just become dry and empty.
Cheap bread works almost infallibly well. I've no idea why that should be.
0 -
They essentially admit it but call it weighting.Trafalgar say, simplistically, that the Trump/Republican vote is understated by “shy Trumpers” (another favourite of @HYUFD ) so their methodology is to ask the individual how they think their neighbours will vote. If the respondent says the neighbours will vote a different way to them then they say they’re a “shy” (invariably Trump) voter. They are cagey about the precise methodology.alex_ said:
They suggestion by others (not myself - i have no idea) on this thread is that Trafalgar isLostPassword said:
Is that a serious suggestion? Is there any particular reason to suspect that's happening?alex_ said:If Trafalgar systematically take other polls and skew them to the Republicans/Trump by 6%, and last time the polls all had a systematic bias to the Democrats of 6% then last time they would have been very successful. If all the other pollsters have now updated their methodology to account for this bias then Trafalgar will look a bit stupid if they've based their assumptions on the same methodology.
In principle opinion polling is one of the defences that a democracy has against an election being stolen by ballot-stuffing, fraudulent counts and similar means.
If a supposed polling company is intentionally producing poll results to be biased then the intention is to hide the blatant stealing of an election.
1) Not a polling company and doesn't actually do any polls
2) Produces its "polls" by taking an average of everyone else's and adding 6% to the Trump/Republican percentage.
What most pollsters got wrong in the rust belt last time was (A) to fail to foresee that undecideds would break for Trump 6 to 1 and (B) not to find enough uneducated voters. As a result Trafalgar struck gold in 2 states by accident. This time (A) their are far fewer undecideds and (B) other pollsters have adjusted their methodology to weight more for education. If there is a systemic polling error this time, which there could well be, it is unlikely to be the same one as last time. People are fighting 2016 over again but it’s a different race with a very different dynamic - notably that the Democratic candidate is far more popular than the last on every measure.
I want to know what Trafalgar do when there is no election on. How do they make money between cycles and who commissions their other polls?1 -
That could provide some welcome relief - let's hope so.Nigelb said:A step in the right direction.
https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1317170948135546881
I wish they would roll this out widely in Universities. I may be starting face-to-face teaching next week, but the virus is spreading through the student population rapidly and some of mine are already in isolation. I have to decide pretty sharply whether to opt out of face-to-face, on grounds of safety. A tough call.
--AS0 -
-
https://faq.covid19.nhs.uk/article/KA-01252/en-usalex_ said:How exciting. I just got a "possible exposure notification" on my Covid-19 app.
Unfortunately before i had finished reading it i got another one advising my "potential exposure" had been analysed and i was safe to carry on as normal. Lucky i was a quick reader or i would have missed it, because i can't seem to find the messages any more!0 -
Not sure how Trump will deal with the humiliation of a Biden landslide not even he will be able to spin away when he could have declared job done and walked away in the summer "undefeated". Unless he genuinely believes he's somehow going to win again and his yes men are too afraid to tell him anything different?0
-
You can see it ?Richard_Nabavi said:Superb article, thanks @Quincel.
0 -
Shh, just say it's great and fall in line.Nigelb said:4 -
No, the Tory vote went up on first preferences and Holyrood constituences next year will be decided on FPTP and the list is not decided on preferences either but top up PRCarnyx said:
PS for HYUFD - the Tory vote went down about 10 percentage points. It is not a FPTP seat.Carnyx said:FPT - more on the Ellon result (and stressing also it's crap for the LDs and Labour, as one would imagine in a straight battle to the death between the SNP and the Tories in the Brexit and covid era):
http://ballotbox.scot/ellon-by-election-result1 -
Thanks. (Hoping in fact that you didn't look it up and it turns out to be wrong, but brilliant)ydoethur said:
I think it’s a reference to the fact that bread was traditionally only toasted when it was too stale to eat fresh. So it represented the very last stage of a loaf and signified it would soon be gone.Omnium said:
Why is appearing like toast a bad thing? Any ideas as to where this came from?ydoethur said:
I’ll take your word for that as a gentleman and a train enthusiast.tlg86 said:Excellent header; Trump looks like toast.
I’ll have to take your word because I can’t see it, so I’ll have to confine myself to awesome punning on random topics.
Like I usually do, come to think of it.
I rather like toast.
I'd imagined 'about to be burned'.
0 -
Oh. How unexciting.RobD said:
https://faq.covid19.nhs.uk/article/KA-01252/en-usalex_ said:How exciting. I just got a "possible exposure notification" on my Covid-19 app.
Unfortunately before i had finished reading it i got another one advising my "potential exposure" had been analysed and i was safe to carry on as normal. Lucky i was a quick reader or i would have missed it, because i can't seem to find the messages any more!
0 -
Based on the swing state polling I posted earlier Trump may will be re elected, so I would not get too confident and start preparing the champagne for that Biden landslide yet as it may never happen.dodrade said:Not sure how Trump will deal with the humiliation of a Biden landslide not even he will be able to spin away when he could have declared job done and walked away in the summer "undefeated". Unless he genuinely believes he's somehow going to win again and his yes men are too afraid to tell him anything different?
I would have thought 2016 would have taught Democrat supporters victory against Trump is not guaranteed, clearly not in your case0 -
That is apparently very common, and normal.alex_ said:How exciting. I just got a "possible exposure notification" on my Covid-19 app.
Unfortunately before i had finished reading it i got another one advising my "potential exposure" had been analysed and i was safe to carry on as normal. Lucky i was a quick reader or i would have missed it, because i can't seem to find the messages any more!
There’s a bug in the program which means these notifications get sent out for every potential exposure however it has been assessed. If you have genuinely been exposed at risk (c. 15mins indoors in proximity, but each case is apparently assessed individually I think), you’ll know about it as you get some massive red flag when you open the app.0 -
So, once Britain becomes an introverted, isolated laughing stock - what happens to James Bond?1
-
That'll be for just you and he to know.Beibheirli_C said:So, once Britain becomes an introverted, isolated laughing stock - what happens to James Bond?
2 -
Flora and marmite. I dread to think how many slices I’ve eaten in my life.Omnium said:
I'd guess some butter on top? (Anything else with it is by-the-by)tlg86 said:
I pretty much live off it.Omnium said:
Why is appearing like toast a bad thing? Any ideas as to where this came from?ydoethur said:
I’ll take your word for that as a gentleman and a train enthusiast.tlg86 said:Excellent header; Trump looks like toast.
I’ll have to take your word because I can’t see it, so I’ll have to confine myself to awesome punning on random topics.
Like I usually do, come to think of it.
I rather like toast.
However as a toast fan you have to worry about the bread. A lot of the flashier consumer breads are far too lightweight to stand up to toasting well. The just become dry and empty.
Cheap bread works almost infallibly well. I've no idea why that should be.0 -
Seems ungenerous.ydoethur said:
With interest, of course. Maybe 10%?Nigelb said:
Better than that, you can have it back.CatMan said:
That's not good enough. I pay £0 a month to access this site, and I demand my money's worth.MikeSmithson said:Sorry for the technical issues
0 -
So Trafalgar correctly forecast the winner of every state in that list then, except Nevada.Gallowgate said:Trafalgar 2016
(Difference to actual result in brackets).
Colorado
Trump 44% (+1)
Clinton 45% (-3)
Florida
Trump 50% (+1)
Clinton 46% (-2)
Georgia
Trump 52% (+2)
Clinton 45% (-)
Michigan
Trump 49% (+1)
Clinton 47% (-1)
Nevada
Trump 50% (+4)
Clinton 45% (-3)
North Carolina
Trump 49% (-1)
Clinton 44% (-3)
Ohio
Trump 49% (-3)
Clinton 44% (-)
Pennsylvania
Trump 48% (-)
Clinton 47% (-1)
South Carolina
Trump 53% (-2)
Clinton 38% (-3)
Utah
Trump 40% (-6)
Clinton 30% (+2)
So all over the place really. Yes they may have got the winner right more often than not, but they certainly are not what you’d call “accurate”.
The fact they also correctly forecast Clinton would win Colorado shows they are not just a pro Trump pollster in every swing state either0 -
Technical issues?MikeSmithson said:Sorry for the technical issues
0 -
M-A-G-A fitting well with the chorus seems to be the main reason it's been picked. Perhaps the cop/military/cowboy/construction worker/biker mix also appeals.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
May be a surprise to (elderly) PBers and others, but my guess is that most of the Putinists cavorting to "YMCA" are NOT aware that it was once (a couple of generations ago) a gay anthem.dixiedean said:
Surprisingly LGBT friendly lot there.williamglenn said:Trump still has some loyal voters.
https://twitter.com/therecount/status/1317156241190387716?s=21
For most people, YMCA is simply a fun old pop song from the days when disco was king.0 -
"...to fail to foresee that undecideds would break for Trump 6 to 1..."DougSeal said:
They essentially admit it but call it weighting.Trafalgar say, simplistically, that the Trump/Republican vote is understated by “shy Trumpers” (another favourite of @HYUFD ) so their methodology is to ask the individual how they think their neighbours will vote. If the respondent says the neighbours will vote a different way to them then they say they’re a “shy” (invariably Trump) voter. They are cagey about the precise methodology.alex_ said:
They suggestion by others (not myself - i have no idea) on this thread is that Trafalgar isLostPassword said:
Is that a serious suggestion? Is there any particular reason to suspect that's happening?alex_ said:If Trafalgar systematically take other polls and skew them to the Republicans/Trump by 6%, and last time the polls all had a systematic bias to the Democrats of 6% then last time they would have been very successful. If all the other pollsters have now updated their methodology to account for this bias then Trafalgar will look a bit stupid if they've based their assumptions on the same methodology.
In principle opinion polling is one of the defences that a democracy has against an election being stolen by ballot-stuffing, fraudulent counts and similar means.
If a supposed polling company is intentionally producing poll results to be biased then the intention is to hide the blatant stealing of an election.
1) Not a polling company and doesn't actually do any polls
2) Produces its "polls" by taking an average of everyone else's and adding 6% to the Trump/Republican percentage.
What most pollsters got wrong in the rust belt last time was (A) to fail to foresee that undecideds would break for Trump 6 to 1 and (B) not to find enough uneducated voters. As a result Trafalgar struck gold in 2 states by accident. This time (A) their are far fewer undecideds and (B) other pollsters have adjusted their methodology to weight more for education. If there is a systemic polling error this time, which there could well be, it is unlikely to be the same one as last time. People are fighting 2016 over again but it’s a different race with a very different dynamic - notably that the Democratic candidate is far more popular than the last on every measure.
I want to know what Trafalgar do when there is no election on. How do they make money between cycles and who commissions their other polls?
That seems to me an extraordinary thing to happen in the absence of a concomitant substantial (though not equally large, obv) move from C to T among those stating an intention. Shy Trumpers is not the worst possible explanation for it...0 -
Disappointing that hasn't been fixed. If something comes up inside the app itself that's when you start worrying.alex_ said:
Oh. How unexciting.RobD said:
https://faq.covid19.nhs.uk/article/KA-01252/en-usalex_ said:How exciting. I just got a "possible exposure notification" on my Covid-19 app.
Unfortunately before i had finished reading it i got another one advising my "potential exposure" had been analysed and i was safe to carry on as normal. Lucky i was a quick reader or i would have missed it, because i can't seem to find the messages any more!0 -
I called his cell, and it rang out and got voicemail.0
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Trump 275 Biden 263 as of tonight, Biden picking up Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and NE02 and winning the national popular vote but Trump holding the rest of his 2016 states and being re elected in the ECAnabobazina said:@HYUFD
What is your current EC forecast?0 -
Unless there's a reason not to - butter.tlg86 said:
Flora and marmite. I dread to think how many slices I’ve eaten in my life.Omnium said:
I'd guess some butter on top? (Anything else with it is by-the-by)tlg86 said:
I pretty much live off it.Omnium said:
Why is appearing like toast a bad thing? Any ideas as to where this came from?ydoethur said:
I’ll take your word for that as a gentleman and a train enthusiast.tlg86 said:Excellent header; Trump looks like toast.
I’ll have to take your word because I can’t see it, so I’ll have to confine myself to awesome punning on random topics.
Like I usually do, come to think of it.
I rather like toast.
However as a toast fan you have to worry about the bread. A lot of the flashier consumer breads are far too lightweight to stand up to toasting well. The just become dry and empty.
Cheap bread works almost infallibly well. I've no idea why that should be.
Have you tried marmite peanut butter? It's like a marmite double-down.
0 -
Trump was not on the ballot in the midterms so that is irrelevant in terms of shy Trump effect, there was no shy GOP effect in 2012 or 2014 for examplealex_ said:If Trafalgar systematically take other polls and skew them to the Republicans/Trump by 6%, and last time the polls all had a systematic bias to the Democrats of 6% then last time they would have been very successful. If all the other pollsters have now updated their methodology to account for this bias then Trafalgar will look a bit stupid if they've based their assumptions on the same methodology.
How did they do in the mid terms (when the other pollsters may even have over-corrected for the Trump effect, as opposed to the Republican effect)?0 -
That's certainly suspicious. Thanks to others for their comments.rcs1000 said:
There's no evidence that Trafalgar is a real, commercial organisation.LostPassword said:
Is that a serious suggestion? Is there any particular reason to suspect that's happening?alex_ said:If Trafalgar systematically take other polls and skew them to the Republicans/Trump by 6%, and last time the polls all had a systematic bias to the Democrats of 6% then last time they would have been very successful. If all the other pollsters have now updated their methodology to account for this bias then Trafalgar will look a bit stupid if they've based their assumptions on the same methodology.
In principle opinion polling is one of the defences that a democracy has against an election being stolen by ballot-stuffing, fraudulent counts and similar means.
If a supposed polling company is intentionally producing poll results to be biased then the intention is to hide the blatant stealing of an election.
It's not incorporated. It doesn't appear to have any employees or a business address. It claims on its PDFs to use a combination of calls and an on-line panel, yet there's no way to join the panel. It doesn't seem to have any customers (so where does the money come from to do these polls), and is dormant in between elections years. And it's run by a Republican operative.0 -
They overstated Trump's relative position in Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and South Carolina.HYUFD said:
So Trafalgar correctly forecast the winner of every state in that list then, except Nevada.Gallowgate said:Trafalgar 2016
(Difference to actual result in brackets).
Colorado
Trump 44% (+1)
Clinton 45% (-3)
Florida
Trump 50% (+1)
Clinton 46% (-2)
Georgia
Trump 52% (+2)
Clinton 45% (-)
Michigan
Trump 49% (+1)
Clinton 47% (-1)
Nevada
Trump 50% (+4)
Clinton 45% (-3)
North Carolina
Trump 49% (-1)
Clinton 44% (-3)
Ohio
Trump 49% (-3)
Clinton 44% (-)
Pennsylvania
Trump 48% (-)
Clinton 47% (-1)
South Carolina
Trump 53% (-2)
Clinton 38% (-3)
Utah
Trump 40% (-6)
Clinton 30% (+2)
So all over the place really. Yes they may have got the winner right more often than not, but they certainly are not what you’d call “accurate”.
The fact they also correctly forecast Clinton would win Colorado shows they are not just a pro Trump pollster in every swing state either
But because they called the "not particularly swing" state of Colorado right, "they are not just a pro Trump pollster".
I actually allege more than that.
I don't believe they are a pollster at all.0
