On the spreads Biden has moved up from 281 ECVs a month ago to 313 this afternoon – politicalbetting
Comments
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@Peter_the_Punter, @Richard_Nabavi, @Stocky
Biden EC supremacy -
Thanks for feedback. Yes I agree with you, Peter - 100 minimum is fair value sell.
So 78 is not there. It's not close enough.
There's a tug to close and trouser since I'm in at 28 for unit £30 but it wouldn't be right. Can't do it.
We stick. ☺0 -
Voteshares at Westminster 2019 compared to Holyrood constituency vote in 2016OnboardG1 said:
Hillary Clinton has more chance of being the President.HYUFD said:
That depends, if Douglas Ross leads Unionists to a majority at Holyrood next year and Sturgeon loses her majority he will be the greatest Scottish Tory leader in history and worthy of a knighthood if not more.OnboardG1 said:
He's going to end up with a Ruth Davidson problem. He's not going to be able to save the Scottish Tories because Johnson insists on shitting in his cornflakes every morning, but he's going to struggle to get back into Westminster politics even if he does as good a job as he can in the circumstances.TheScreamingEagles said:I'm turning into a fan of Douglas Ross.
https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/1313478463760855042
Of course part of that would be winning the Moray seat at Holyrood held by the SNP but which he holds at Westminster
2019 2016
SNP 45% SNP 46.5%
SCons 25% SCons 22%
SLab 18.6% SLab 22.6%
SLD 9.5% SLDs 7.8%
So based on the Scottish general election results last year there should be a small swing from the SNP and SLab to the Scottish Conservatives and Scottish LDs at Holyrood next year0 -
You don't need one?MaxPB said:
Because we don't need one. It's an egregious demand from EU.CarlottaVance said:
The mystery is why the UK government has not been able to come forward with a State Aid regime and governance mechanism. "Trust us" has demonstrably failed, and for good reason.Philip_Thompson said:
It all seems to be boiling down to LPF.CarlottaVance said:This struck me as interesting - "LPF and governance" - not "Fish" - and from reports the UK has been unclear on "LPF and governance" beyond "trust us" - which is brave under the circumstances....
https://twitter.com/nickgutteridge/status/1313448603319521280?s=20
I think the rest of the EU have told the French to shut up about Fish, so we will get our way on that, probably with a transition.
I thought you were aspiring to remain a member of the WTO. Do you not need a state aid regime that can be reconciled with the obligations that come with WTO membership?
Rules on state aid are a significant part of these membership obligations, are they not?0 -
Oranges and lemons there.HYUFD said:
Voteshares at Westminster 2019 compared to Holyrood constituency vote in 2016OnboardG1 said:
Hillary Clinton has more chance of being the President.HYUFD said:
That depends, if Douglas Ross leads Unionists to a majority at Holyrood next year and Sturgeon loses her majority he will be the greatest Scottish Tory leader in history and worthy of a knighthood if not more.OnboardG1 said:
He's going to end up with a Ruth Davidson problem. He's not going to be able to save the Scottish Tories because Johnson insists on shitting in his cornflakes every morning, but he's going to struggle to get back into Westminster politics even if he does as good a job as he can in the circumstances.TheScreamingEagles said:I'm turning into a fan of Douglas Ross.
https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/1313478463760855042
Of course part of that would be winning the Moray seat at Holyrood held by the SNP but which he holds at Westminster
2019 2016
SNP 45% SNP 46.5%
SCons 25% SCons 22%
SLab 18.6% SLab 22.6%
SLD 9.5% SLDs 7.8%
So based on the Scottish general election results last year there should be a small swing from the SNP and SLab to the Scottish Conservatives and Scottish LDs at Holyrood next year0 -
I actually think there is going to be a transitory drop in Trump support.OnboardG1 said:
Nope.Nigel_Foremain said:Has anyone seen any evidence of Trump getting any sympathy for having Covid, such as was offered to our own Bullshitter-In-Chief?
Over 60% of people thought he was reckless. That is going to translate into Trump voters saying they won't vote for Trump in an opinion poll.
But come election day they will tick the Trump box.1 -
You don't need a formalised regime to do that, just observe the rules. The same is true for any trade treaty. There doesn't need to be a regime.matthiasfromhamburg said:
You don't need one?MaxPB said:
Because we don't need one. It's an egregious demand from EU.CarlottaVance said:
The mystery is why the UK government has not been able to come forward with a State Aid regime and governance mechanism. "Trust us" has demonstrably failed, and for good reason.Philip_Thompson said:
It all seems to be boiling down to LPF.CarlottaVance said:This struck me as interesting - "LPF and governance" - not "Fish" - and from reports the UK has been unclear on "LPF and governance" beyond "trust us" - which is brave under the circumstances....
https://twitter.com/nickgutteridge/status/1313448603319521280?s=20
I think the rest of the EU have told the French to shut up about Fish, so we will get our way on that, probably with a transition.
I thought you were aspiring to remain a member of the WTO. Do you not need a state aid regime that can be reconciled with the obligations that come with WTO membership?
Rules on state aid are a significant part of these membership obligations, are they not?1 -
Market is 78 - 86.kinabalu said:@Peter_the_Punter, @Richard_Nabavi, @Stocky
Biden EC supremacy -
Thanks for feedback. Yes I agree with you, Peter - 100 minimum is fair value sell.
So 78 is not there. It's not close enough.
There's a tug to close and trouser since I'm in at 28 for unit £30 but it wouldn't be right. Can't do it.
We stick. ☺
Why don`t you close 25% of the bet at 85 and 25% more at 95 and let the rest run?
Then you can`t beat yourself up too much whatever happens.
The current market is at 82 (mid way between 78 and 86) so closing at 78 would mean you are paying an additional 4 points to the bookies. I know you know this already, I`m explaining why I dislike closing out and think it`s more optimal to let bets run to the final makeup. Bookies love punters to close out because they get paid again.1 -
Social media savvy team Mesut still at it!
https://twitter.com/MesutOzil1088/status/1313486087181021190?s=200 -
Students in halls or uni flats will be a population with which we can finally determine the Herd Immunity number surely? By end of October everyone who is going to get it will have had it. Let's get the ONS testing antibodies and so on.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Daughter's fresher friends are in lockdown or self-isolating all over the shop - Edinburgh, Sheffield, Manchester, Birmingham and latest reports being Warwick, Bristol and Durham. Oxbridge of course only now starting term (tho Brookes was early on) too. It just seems to be 'working out' that all these young folk will be getting it whilst away from their older relatives... The fact anyone is surprised this is happening is hard to understand.Pro_Rata said:The university outbreaks leave me wondering whether the Risk Segmentation advocates had it backwards. Not, lock up your old but lock up your young, as PT suggests.
In hindsight perhaps we could have thrown a ring round and effectively campus-ised even city based universities: healthy - come along; young & shielding - here is our remote offer; home based - we have an accommodation deal this year only if you want, lecturing - let the early courses be done by the younger, healthier academics and structure remote/onsite accordingly, and isolate those guys after work; similarly student only bars/Tesco Metros staffed accordingly. With lots and lots of advanced thought and planning it is a segmentation strategy that might have had some degree of success.1 -
They feel Biden is old and past it and an non-viable choice for president.Nigelb said:
Would you care to expand on those feelings ?DAlexander said:Maybe people have lower expectations of Biden because they feel he shouldn't win.
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For a second there i thought you meant an SCON majority not merely a unionist one!HYUFD said:
That depends, if Douglas Ross leads Unionists to a majority at Holyrood next year and Sturgeon loses her majority he will be the greatest Scottish Tory leader in history and worthy of a knighthood if not more.OnboardG1 said:
He's going to end up with a Ruth Davidson problem. He's not going to be able to save the Scottish Tories because Johnson insists on shitting in his cornflakes every morning, but he's going to struggle to get back into Westminster politics even if he does as good a job as he can in the circumstances.TheScreamingEagles said:I'm turning into a fan of Douglas Ross.
https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/1313478463760855042
Of course part of that would be winning the Moray seat at Holyrood held by the SNP but which he holds at Westminster1 -
That IDP/TIPP poll showing a 3% Biden lead seems a long time ago now.0
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My mate got in a fight with a footy mascot once. He jumped the advertising board and they started battering each other. I wasn`t there but I hear that it was hilarious. It made the papers. Don`t know what my mate was annoyed about.isam said:Social media savvy team Mesut still at it!
https://twitter.com/MesutOzil1088/status/1313486087181021190?s=200 -
Who is "they"? Presumably the mere 53% of people who say they are going to vote for him?DAlexander said:
They feel Biden is old and past it and an non-viable choice for president.Nigelb said:
Would you care to expand on those feelings ?DAlexander said:Maybe people have lower expectations of Biden because they feel he shouldn't win.
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Trump is in the same category.DAlexander said:
They feel Biden is old and past it and an non-viable choice for president.Nigelb said:
Would you care to expand on those feelings ?DAlexander said:Maybe people have lower expectations of Biden because they feel he shouldn't win.
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Trump is in a lesser category.MaxPB said:
Trump is in the same category.DAlexander said:
They feel Biden is old and past it and an non-viable choice for president.Nigelb said:
Would you care to expand on those feelings ?DAlexander said:Maybe people have lower expectations of Biden because they feel he shouldn't win.
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Deaths could drop to zero, like an honest die could come up 6 fifty times in a row. The people actually developing vaccines would bite your arm off for 50% efficacy.Philip_Thompson said:
I think you're being overly pessimistic. Once we've vaccinated the vulnerable deaths could drop to zero at which point it ceases to be a major news story. A lot of young people already want to get back to normal, give it another six months plus their grandparents have been vaccinated and you're not going to stop them getting back to normal whether you want to or not.MaxPB said:
The problem is that even if only 25% of people are afraid of their own shadows then the economy will not return to anything like normal. A national vaccination programme and a study for vaccines in kids is the only way to resolve this. We can't run an economy without everyone participating in full.Philip_Thompson said:
I don't agree. Many young people are scared of infecting their loved ones - "don't kill your grandparents".MaxPB said:
No with the way the government has been fear mongering about the virus we won't return to normal until the vaccine programme has been completed. People are afraid of their own shadows at the moment.Philip_Thompson said:
Quite rightly care workers and the vulnerable will get the vaccine first, as they should, then we will get back to normal.MaxPB said:
No, it's not really. The government will push a national vaccination scheme for everyone over the age of 18. Not vaccinating 18-50 year olds will have a huge economic cost because it will take years for this cohort to acquire herd immunity and for life to resume as normal. A vaccine is a shortcut to a resumption of non distanced life, why buy 120m doses of we're only going to use half of them (two doses per person).Richard_Nabavi said:Another very interesting editorial by Osborne:
https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/coronaviris-vaccine-political-bombshell-george-osborne-a4564456.html
Healthy young adults will eventually get the vaccine but we'd already be back to normal by the time they do.
As far as I'm concerned once the vulnerable have been vaccinated I'm eager to get back to normal. I don't care about myself, I just don't want my grandparents to get it.0 -
A decent basket of polls from Big Joe there, although nothing spectacular.HYUFD said:
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76% have confidence in Merkel, 64% have confidence in Macron and 48% have confidence in Johnson but only 23% have confidence in Putin, 19% have confidence in Xi and 16% have confidence in Trump to do the right thing in world affairs amongst the nations surveyedCarlottaVance said:
https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2020/09/15/us-image-plummets-internationally-as-most-say-country-has-handled-coronavirus-badly/pg_2020-09-15_u-s-image_0-05/0 -
Time for those who slag off Boris for any potential No Deal to put "He's dancing to the EU's tune" back on the turntable
https://twitter.com/IGSquawk/status/1313469794801287169?s=203 -
Milk them for antigens as wellrottenborough said:
Students in halls or uni flats will be a population with which we can finally determine the Herd Immunity number surely? By end of October everyone who is going to get it will have had it. Let's get the ONS testing antibodies and so on.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Daughter's fresher friends are in lockdown or self-isolating all over the shop - Edinburgh, Sheffield, Manchester, Birmingham and latest reports being Warwick, Bristol and Durham. Oxbridge of course only now starting term (tho Brookes was early on) too. It just seems to be 'working out' that all these young folk will be getting it whilst away from their older relatives... The fact anyone is surprised this is happening is hard to understand.Pro_Rata said:The university outbreaks leave me wondering whether the Risk Segmentation advocates had it backwards. Not, lock up your old but lock up your young, as PT suggests.
In hindsight perhaps we could have thrown a ring round and effectively campus-ised even city based universities: healthy - come along; young & shielding - here is our remote offer; home based - we have an accommodation deal this year only if you want, lecturing - let the early courses be done by the younger, healthier academics and structure remote/onsite accordingly, and isolate those guys after work; similarly student only bars/Tesco Metros staffed accordingly. With lots and lots of advanced thought and planning it is a segmentation strategy that might have had some degree of success.1 -
The SNP and Greens currently have 69 MSPs with 65 needed for a Holyrood majority, so it only needs a small swing to Unionists to get that Unionist majoritydixiedean said:
Oranges and lemons there.HYUFD said:
Voteshares at Westminster 2019 compared to Holyrood constituency vote in 2016OnboardG1 said:
Hillary Clinton has more chance of being the President.HYUFD said:
That depends, if Douglas Ross leads Unionists to a majority at Holyrood next year and Sturgeon loses her majority he will be the greatest Scottish Tory leader in history and worthy of a knighthood if not more.OnboardG1 said:
He's going to end up with a Ruth Davidson problem. He's not going to be able to save the Scottish Tories because Johnson insists on shitting in his cornflakes every morning, but he's going to struggle to get back into Westminster politics even if he does as good a job as he can in the circumstances.TheScreamingEagles said:I'm turning into a fan of Douglas Ross.
https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/1313478463760855042
Of course part of that would be winning the Moray seat at Holyrood held by the SNP but which he holds at Westminster
2019 2016
SNP 45% SNP 46.5%
SCons 25% SCons 22%
SLab 18.6% SLab 22.6%
SLD 9.5% SLDs 7.8%
So based on the Scottish general election results last year there should be a small swing from the SNP and SLab to the Scottish Conservatives and Scottish LDs at Holyrood next year0 -
Indeed, and to my mind that's the right model.Pulpstar said:
There's a large minority (Of all ages) that don't fancy having the vaccine, and certainly don't want to be 'early' in the vaccine queue. That's their right - but means people that wish to get the vaccine asap will have a few less in the queue.Anabobazina said:
Fair enough. Perhaps they could allow those under 50 to apply, being clear that it's first-come-first-served, which would at least reduce some of the political risk ("we have been clear from the start that healthy under-50s are not a priority group for the treatment").MaxPB said:
More slowly and with a lot of economic damage in the process. We're storing up a lot of long term issues at the moment with unemployment, problems that will have a large longer term cost than a few old people dying a few months early, to put it bluntly.Anabobazina said:
Wouldn't we get there anyway, if younger fitter people are encouraged to mix freely?MaxPB said:
Doesn't make sense to me, I'd want the elderly and infirm to benefit from herd immunity.Anabobazina said:The policy of rolling out a scarce resource (vaccine) to those in most need (the eldery and infirm) seems like the right one to me.
From each according to his ability, to each according to his need.0 -
Yes I think that's sound advice. Don't forget a punter's stomach is his friend - if it starts to feel queasy you are in too deep and it's wise to throttle back if you can. Stocky suggests a good way of doing it.Stocky said:
Market is 78 - 86.kinabalu said:@Peter_the_Punter, @Richard_Nabavi, @Stocky
Biden EC supremacy -
Thanks for feedback. Yes I agree with you, Peter - 100 minimum is fair value sell.
So 78 is not there. It's not close enough.
There's a tug to close and trouser since I'm in at 28 for unit £30 but it wouldn't be right. Can't do it.
We stick. ☺
Why don`t you close 25% of the bet at 85 and 25% more at 95 and let the rest run?
Then you can`t beat yourself up too much whatever happens.
The current market is at 82 (mid way between 78 and 86) so closing at 78 would mean you are paying an additional 4 points to the bookies. I know you know this already, I`m explaining why I dislike closing out and think it`s more optimal to let bets run to the final makeup. Bookies love punters to close out because they get paid again.1 -
SI Biden supremacy just increased two to 80-881
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Sky Q any good? We've never bothered to upgrade but I understand it's the same price as Sky+ HD now.
Johnson speech thoughts?0 -
I really do not care as long as a deal is doneisam said:Time for those who slag off Boris for any potential No Deal to put "He's dancing to the EU's tune" back on the turntable
https://twitter.com/IGSquawk/status/1313469794801287169?s=200 -
Not this again.matthiasfromhamburg said:
Well, what is the overall number of under 20s who have been infected?Anabobazina said:
What risk would you be prepared to accept? I haven't got the latest numbers in front of me, but the number of healthy under 20s in England who have died of Covid-19 stood, on 19 August, as four.RobD said:
I suspect their lawyers would have fainted at the prospect! Not everyone is impervious at that age, unfortunately.Philip_Thompson said:
Should have told anyone who wasn't worried about catching the virus to come early and stay in the Halls, have one big Freshers party. Treat it like Big Brother - we'll supply food and alcohol, only rule is you can't get out.RobD said:
Why not just lock down the university?FrancisUrquhart said:Coronavirus outbreak at Nottingham University as 425 students and eight staff test positive as city ‘days’ from lockdown
Not four thousand.
Not four hundred.
Not forty.
Four.
What is the number of other people who have been infected by those u20s?
What is the number of people among these who then went on to infect other people?
What is the number of people among these who have suffered significant health damage?
What is the number of people among these who have suffered the ultimate health damage?
And, most importantly, which of these numbers is the most relevant when assessing the public health risk?
For clarity EVERYONE KNOWS THE RISK OF CONTAGION.
I am simply saying that the prioritisation of the vaccine and indeed Phillip's idea of benign containment is not without support from the data.
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Especially in London!dixiedean said:
In London?Pro_Rata said:The university outbreaks leave me wondering whether the Risk Segmentation advocates had it backwards. Not, lock up your old but lock up your young, as PT suggests.
In hindsight perhaps we could have thrown a ring round and effectively campus-ised even city based universities: healthy - come along; young & shielding - here is our remote offer; home based - we have an accommodation deal this year only if you want, lecturing - let the early courses be done by the younger, healthier academics and structure remote/onsite accordingly, and isolate those guys after work; similarly student only bars/Tesco Metros staffed accordingly. With lots and lots of advanced thought and planning it is a segmentation strategy that might have had some degree of success.
However the people of London have been quite good since lockdown.0 -
Steroids still working thenTheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Sounds like they are coming to agreements on the less contentious issues. It's the contentious ones that are the problem!isam said:Time for those who slag off Boris for any potential No Deal to put "He's dancing to the EU's tune" back on the turntable
https://twitter.com/IGSquawk/status/1313469794801287169?s=203 -
Dexamethasone infusion 10 a.m. Washington time, then.TheScreamingEagles said:4 -
Less, much less. I'm stuck at home at the minute. I can't be alone in spending more time online this year.Nigel_Foremain said:
Is "back to normal" for you even more time as a keyboard warrior on PB or less? 😂😂😂Philip_Thompson said:
I don't agree. Many young people are scared of infecting their loved ones - "don't kill your grandparents".MaxPB said:
No with the way the government has been fear mongering about the virus we won't return to normal until the vaccine programme has been completed. People are afraid of their own shadows at the moment.Philip_Thompson said:
Quite rightly care workers and the vulnerable will get the vaccine first, as they should, then we will get back to normal.MaxPB said:
No, it's not really. The government will push a national vaccination scheme for everyone over the age of 18. Not vaccinating 18-50 year olds will have a huge economic cost because it will take years for this cohort to acquire herd immunity and for life to resume as normal. A vaccine is a shortcut to a resumption of non distanced life, why buy 120m doses of we're only going to use half of them (two doses per person).Richard_Nabavi said:Another very interesting editorial by Osborne:
https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/coronaviris-vaccine-political-bombshell-george-osborne-a4564456.html
Healthy young adults will eventually get the vaccine but we'd already be back to normal by the time they do.
As far as I'm concerned once the vulnerable have been vaccinated I'm eager to get back to normal. I don't care about myself, I just don't want my grandparents to get it.1 -
Re: the wealth tax discussions this morning - I note that no-one suggested a tax on gambling winnings!0
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So its play your card right time....high or lower than 15k today?0
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@HYUFD
Thanks once again for psoting the new polls. You are quicker than RCP. How do you do it?
Only PA would be even moderately disappointing for team Biden. It really is beginning to look like JB is the next POTUS.1 -
I do too. The last thing the US needs is a showboating populist fringe President of either flavour. Nor an outsider to "shake things up".Anabobazina said:
Biden will appoint serious, qualified people to the important positions. And he knows how the system works. And he won't go out of his way to sow divisions.
He'll probably only do one term, and he may not succeed, but he won't hurt.4 -
IG Squawk and Donald Trump both shouting in tweets.
Glad I stay away.0 -
What are the odds on 15,000 exactly?FrancisUrquhart said:So its play your card right time....high or lower than 15k today?
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It doesn't need to be 100% efficacy though.IshmaelZ said:
Deaths could drop to zero, like an honest die could come up 6 fifty times in a row. The people actually developing vaccines would bite your arm off for 50% efficacy.Philip_Thompson said:
I think you're being overly pessimistic. Once we've vaccinated the vulnerable deaths could drop to zero at which point it ceases to be a major news story. A lot of young people already want to get back to normal, give it another six months plus their grandparents have been vaccinated and you're not going to stop them getting back to normal whether you want to or not.MaxPB said:
The problem is that even if only 25% of people are afraid of their own shadows then the economy will not return to anything like normal. A national vaccination programme and a study for vaccines in kids is the only way to resolve this. We can't run an economy without everyone participating in full.Philip_Thompson said:
I don't agree. Many young people are scared of infecting their loved ones - "don't kill your grandparents".MaxPB said:
No with the way the government has been fear mongering about the virus we won't return to normal until the vaccine programme has been completed. People are afraid of their own shadows at the moment.Philip_Thompson said:
Quite rightly care workers and the vulnerable will get the vaccine first, as they should, then we will get back to normal.MaxPB said:
No, it's not really. The government will push a national vaccination scheme for everyone over the age of 18. Not vaccinating 18-50 year olds will have a huge economic cost because it will take years for this cohort to acquire herd immunity and for life to resume as normal. A vaccine is a shortcut to a resumption of non distanced life, why buy 120m doses of we're only going to use half of them (two doses per person).Richard_Nabavi said:Another very interesting editorial by Osborne:
https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/coronaviris-vaccine-political-bombshell-george-osborne-a4564456.html
Healthy young adults will eventually get the vaccine but we'd already be back to normal by the time they do.
As far as I'm concerned once the vulnerable have been vaccinated I'm eager to get back to normal. I don't care about myself, I just don't want my grandparents to get it.0 -
Biden should insist upon plexiglass between them.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
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To reduce deaths to zero?Philip_Thompson said:
It doesn't need to be 100% efficacy though.IshmaelZ said:
Deaths could drop to zero, like an honest die could come up 6 fifty times in a row. The people actually developing vaccines would bite your arm off for 50% efficacy.Philip_Thompson said:
I think you're being overly pessimistic. Once we've vaccinated the vulnerable deaths could drop to zero at which point it ceases to be a major news story. A lot of young people already want to get back to normal, give it another six months plus their grandparents have been vaccinated and you're not going to stop them getting back to normal whether you want to or not.MaxPB said:
The problem is that even if only 25% of people are afraid of their own shadows then the economy will not return to anything like normal. A national vaccination programme and a study for vaccines in kids is the only way to resolve this. We can't run an economy without everyone participating in full.Philip_Thompson said:
I don't agree. Many young people are scared of infecting their loved ones - "don't kill your grandparents".MaxPB said:
No with the way the government has been fear mongering about the virus we won't return to normal until the vaccine programme has been completed. People are afraid of their own shadows at the moment.Philip_Thompson said:
Quite rightly care workers and the vulnerable will get the vaccine first, as they should, then we will get back to normal.MaxPB said:
No, it's not really. The government will push a national vaccination scheme for everyone over the age of 18. Not vaccinating 18-50 year olds will have a huge economic cost because it will take years for this cohort to acquire herd immunity and for life to resume as normal. A vaccine is a shortcut to a resumption of non distanced life, why buy 120m doses of we're only going to use half of them (two doses per person).Richard_Nabavi said:Another very interesting editorial by Osborne:
https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/coronaviris-vaccine-political-bombshell-george-osborne-a4564456.html
Healthy young adults will eventually get the vaccine but we'd already be back to normal by the time they do.
As far as I'm concerned once the vulnerable have been vaccinated I'm eager to get back to normal. I don't care about myself, I just don't want my grandparents to get it.0 -
Trumps approval rating heading south .
Rasmussen the go to pollster for Trump fans shows a further drop today down to -9 .
Given they’ve often shown the absolute best approval figures for Trump and have in the past shown positive ratings for him whilst the others have been in the -10 range suggests his approval is cratering .
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Once the less contentious ones are resolved there'll be more pressure on all politicians to come to a realistic compromise on the contentious ones.RobD said:
Sounds like they are coming to agreements on the less contentious issues. It's the contentious ones that are the problem!isam said:Time for those who slag off Boris for any potential No Deal to put "He's dancing to the EU's tune" back on the turntable
https://twitter.com/IGSquawk/status/1313469794801287169?s=20
If people feel they've nothing to lose, there's no reason to compromise.0 -
Back in 2003 I was in the audience for HIGNFY when Bruce Forsyth was the guest presenter and one one of the rounds was based on Iraq's most wanted deck of cardsFrancisUrquhart said:So its play your card right time....high or lower than 15k today?
'Play your Iraqi cards right.'
I just got a similar vibe there.0 -
I appreciate the breathless excitement for the dazzling candidate, the second Obama, that is Joe Biden, but I would be wary of getting sucked into Biden now the markets have already moved.
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Not sure I quite go with that rule but Ok I wibble no more. We're sorted. Kenny agrees that we stick at this point. He says the price is still too low and iho Texas is going. And he should know -Stocky said:
You need to stop wibbling about your bet.kinabalu said:Yep, looking good.
And if I could pose a question to the group of posters (I think you know who you are) who are both keen punters and share my view that Trump will lose and it won't be close -
What iyo is a Fair Value sell price for Biden EC supremacy right now?
Never close out, that`s my rule. But remind me what your bet is and on which market specifically - and what it is currently trading at.
https://youtu.be/7hx4gdlfamo0 -
Further proof for the abolition of organised religion, remember the Supreme Governor of this lot is our unelected Head of State.
C of E bishops should lose responsibility for safeguarding children, says inquiry
Damning report says church protected its reputation above its ‘explicit moral purpose’
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/06/c-of-e-bishops-should-lose-responsibility-for-safeguarding-children-says-inquiry0 -
At 2:41 pm our time he had his steroids.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
I am right in thinking it is only the UK and Iran that have unelected clergy in their Parliaments?0
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Pandemic or no pandemic a screen between someone and Trump is not a bad idea.Philip_Thompson said:
Biden should insist upon plexiglass between them.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Sky Q is great. If its the same price then I'd say its a no-brainer to implement it.CorrectHorseBattery said:Sky Q any good? We've never bothered to upgrade but I understand it's the same price as Sky+ HD now.
Johnson speech thoughts?
Plus we have our Netflix and Disney+ and YouTube accounts integrated with Sky Q. The box works really well with all of these as well as Sky's own programming. Very user friendly, even my four year old can load Disney+ or YouTube to put on her favourite programming using the speech functionality in the remote.0 -
Vatican city?TheScreamingEagles said:I am right in thinking it is only the UK and Iran that have unelected clergy in their Parliament?
1 -
Not going to raise much though is it.Stocky said:Re: the wealth tax discussions this morning - I note that no-one suggested a tax on gambling winnings!
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I resemble that remark!SandyRentool said:They should only have allowed the engineering students to return to Uni. No risk of social interaction.
I wonder how much cake he is eating?IshmaelZ said:
Dexamethasone infusion 10 a.m. Washington time, then.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
I wish I could bet directly on poll movements.0
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Looked like Johnny Rotten.isam said:0 -
There comes a point where you crave quiet, unassuming competence. May even happen here one day.dixiedean said:
I do too. The last thing the US needs is a showboating populist fringe President of either flavour. Nor an outsider to "shake things up".Anabobazina said:
Biden will appoint serious, qualified people to the important positions. And he knows how the system works. And he won't go out of his way to sow divisions.
He'll probably only do one term, and he may not succeed, but he won't hurt.1 -
Yeah - I have two noisy klaxons going on - don't bet against Trump and don't back Biden.contrarian said:I appreciate the breathless excitement for the dazzling candidate, the second Obama, that is Joe Biden, but I would be wary of getting sucked into Biden now the markets have already moved.
I'm pretty neutral betting-wise as to the outcome, although massively all-red overall having opposed Biden all the way down.
I guess it boils down to me seeing him as an impossibly bad leader of the free world. Worse than Trump, and I hate Trump (admittedly I have warmed to him a little)0 -
When my father was on the roids while undergoing cancer treatment, he ran from his village to the next (a trip of several miles) and was found in the pub talking a million miles an hour at anybody who would listen.
Perhaps we will see Trump doing laps of the White House lawn in his pants?2 -
Indeed. Without a vaccine with R reduced they came close to zero during the summer. With a vaccine even at 50% efficacy R should be low and it should be minimal to zero most of the time.IshmaelZ said:
To reduce deaths to zero?Philip_Thompson said:
It doesn't need to be 100% efficacy though.IshmaelZ said:
Deaths could drop to zero, like an honest die could come up 6 fifty times in a row. The people actually developing vaccines would bite your arm off for 50% efficacy.Philip_Thompson said:
I think you're being overly pessimistic. Once we've vaccinated the vulnerable deaths could drop to zero at which point it ceases to be a major news story. A lot of young people already want to get back to normal, give it another six months plus their grandparents have been vaccinated and you're not going to stop them getting back to normal whether you want to or not.MaxPB said:
The problem is that even if only 25% of people are afraid of their own shadows then the economy will not return to anything like normal. A national vaccination programme and a study for vaccines in kids is the only way to resolve this. We can't run an economy without everyone participating in full.Philip_Thompson said:
I don't agree. Many young people are scared of infecting their loved ones - "don't kill your grandparents".MaxPB said:
No with the way the government has been fear mongering about the virus we won't return to normal until the vaccine programme has been completed. People are afraid of their own shadows at the moment.Philip_Thompson said:
Quite rightly care workers and the vulnerable will get the vaccine first, as they should, then we will get back to normal.MaxPB said:
No, it's not really. The government will push a national vaccination scheme for everyone over the age of 18. Not vaccinating 18-50 year olds will have a huge economic cost because it will take years for this cohort to acquire herd immunity and for life to resume as normal. A vaccine is a shortcut to a resumption of non distanced life, why buy 120m doses of we're only going to use half of them (two doses per person).Richard_Nabavi said:Another very interesting editorial by Osborne:
https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/coronaviris-vaccine-political-bombshell-george-osborne-a4564456.html
Healthy young adults will eventually get the vaccine but we'd already be back to normal by the time they do.
As far as I'm concerned once the vulnerable have been vaccinated I'm eager to get back to normal. I don't care about myself, I just don't want my grandparents to get it.0 -
The utter legend that is Bruce Forsyth.contrarian said:I appreciate the breathless excitement for the dazzling candidate, the second Obama, that is Joe Biden, but I would be wary of getting sucked into Biden now the markets have already moved.
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And an appallingly unrepresentative selection, both in terms of geography and of belief (and lack of), of the UK. If you are a Free Churcher in Lewis, or a Quaker in Somerset, hard luck.TheScreamingEagles said:I am right in thinking it is only the UK and Iran that have unelected clergy in their Parliaments?
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It is precisely because he is neither dazzling nor exciting.contrarian said:I appreciate the breathless excitement for the dazzling candidate, the second Obama, that is Joe Biden, but I would be wary of getting sucked into Biden now the markets have already moved.
Sleepy Joe is his main attraction.0 -
'They' ?DAlexander said:
They feel Biden is old and past it and an non-viable choice for president.Nigelb said:
Would you care to expand on those feelings ?DAlexander said:Maybe people have lower expectations of Biden because they feel he shouldn't win.
I'm not myself in the business of mind reading, so I'll just say that I think he'll be absolutely fine.
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That's not a proper Parliament, plus it's not a real country either.RobD said:
Vatican city?TheScreamingEagles said:I am right in thinking it is only the UK and Iran that have unelected clergy in their Parliament?
But it is another 'country' that puts the reputation of the Church ahead the victims of sexual abuse, so stellar company for the UK to keep.0 -
That's hardly contrarian advice.contrarian said:I appreciate the breathless excitement for the dazzling candidate, the second Obama, that is Joe Biden, but I would be wary of getting sucked into Biden now the markets have already moved.
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All institutions end up prioritising the institution over other considerations. I doubt anyone will be surprised Church's are no different. Heck, they likely used to be a lot worse given the power they wielded for centuries.TheScreamingEagles said:Further proof for the abolition of organised religion, remember the Supreme Governor of this lot is our unelected Head of State.
C of E bishops should lose responsibility for safeguarding children, says inquiry
Damning report says church protected its reputation above its ‘explicit moral purpose’
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/06/c-of-e-bishops-should-lose-responsibility-for-safeguarding-children-says-inquiry0 -
They can always stand for election.Carnyx said:
And an appallingly unrepresentative selection, both in terms of geography and of belief (and lack of), of the UK. If you are a Free Churcher in Lewis, or a Quaker in Somerset, hard luck.TheScreamingEagles said:I am right in thinking it is only the UK and Iran that have unelected clergy in their Parliaments?
Plus quite frankly the less we have Wee Freers near power the better.0 -
Not in my case!Benpointer said:
Not going to raise much though is it.Stocky said:Re: the wealth tax discussions this morning - I note that no-one suggested a tax on gambling winnings!
1 -
Oh there you are. Just pondering your well-reasoned argument in favour of Boris staying on. It all made sense.kinabalu said:
Not sure I quite go with that rule but Ok I wibble no more. We're sorted. Kenny agrees that we stick at this point. He says the price is still too low and iho Texas is going. And he should know -Stocky said:
You need to stop wibbling about your bet.kinabalu said:Yep, looking good.
And if I could pose a question to the group of posters (I think you know who you are) who are both keen punters and share my view that Trump will lose and it won't be close -
What iyo is a Fair Value sell price for Biden EC supremacy right now?
Never close out, that`s my rule. But remind me what your bet is and on which market specifically - and what it is currently trading at.
Except...the man always was patently unfit to be PM as is universally accepted. As was indeed TMay. Neither was just "bad", and each had a trait which would mean that they would at some time be found out and deposed one way or another. Or leave.
These things have a habit of not working in 24-hr rolling news time but in politics time which can be months and months as it was with May. When she became PM plenty called her a dead woman walking and so it proved. It's the same with Boris imo. He is not fit to be PM, as many fundamental character and political flaws and hence it is a matter of time before he goes.
Is the reason I have backed him to be out by Sep '21.2 -
But if we expel the bishops there will no longer be a need for a distinction between 'Lords Temporal' and 'Lords Spiritual', and who wants that?TheScreamingEagles said:
That's not a proper Parliament, plus it's not a real country either.RobD said:
Vatican city?TheScreamingEagles said:I am right in thinking it is only the UK and Iran that have unelected clergy in their Parliament?
But it is another 'country' that puts the reputation of the Church ahead the victims of sexual abuse, so stellar company for the UK to keep.1 -
As a democrat I want to take back power from our unelected rulers.BluestBlue said:
But if we expel the bishops there will no longer be a need for a distinction between 'Lords Temporal' and 'Lords Spiritual', and who wants that?TheScreamingEagles said:
That's not a proper Parliament, plus it's not a real country either.RobD said:
Vatican city?TheScreamingEagles said:I am right in thinking it is only the UK and Iran that have unelected clergy in their Parliament?
But it is another 'country' that puts the reputation of the Church ahead the victims of sexual abuse, so stellar company for the UK to keep.0 -
A tax on other people - I'm in!Stocky said:Re: the wealth tax discussions this morning - I note that no-one suggested a tax on gambling winnings!
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Maybe we should expel them both and then there's no issue?BluestBlue said:
But if we expel the bishops there will no longer be a need for a distinction between 'Lords Temporal' and 'Lords Spiritual', and who wants that?TheScreamingEagles said:
That's not a proper Parliament, plus it's not a real country either.RobD said:
Vatican city?TheScreamingEagles said:I am right in thinking it is only the UK and Iran that have unelected clergy in their Parliament?
But it is another 'country' that puts the reputation of the Church ahead the victims of sexual abuse, so stellar company for the UK to keep.0 -
rationale below at 3:36kinabalu said:
Not sure I quite go with that rule but Ok I wibble no more. We're sorted. Kenny agrees that we stick at this point. He says the price is still too low and iho Texas is going. And he should know -Stocky said:
You need to stop wibbling about your bet.kinabalu said:Yep, looking good.
And if I could pose a question to the group of posters (I think you know who you are) who are both keen punters and share my view that Trump will lose and it won't be close -
What iyo is a Fair Value sell price for Biden EC supremacy right now?
Never close out, that`s my rule. But remind me what your bet is and on which market specifically - and what it is currently trading at.
https://youtu.be/7hx4gdlfamo1 -
We could manage it. Even if the place was elected id say still call it the Lords.BluestBlue said:
But if we expel the bishops there will no longer be a need for a distinction between 'Lords Temporal' and 'Lords Spiritual', and who wants that?TheScreamingEagles said:
That's not a proper Parliament, plus it's not a real country either.RobD said:
Vatican city?TheScreamingEagles said:I am right in thinking it is only the UK and Iran that have unelected clergy in their Parliament?
But it is another 'country' that puts the reputation of the Church ahead the victims of sexual abuse, so stellar company for the UK to keep.0 -
Are there things that rank above sexual abuse in the priorities?TheScreamingEagles said:
That's not a proper Parliament, plus it's not a real country either.RobD said:
Vatican city?TheScreamingEagles said:I am right in thinking it is only the UK and Iran that have unelected clergy in their Parliament?
But it is another 'country' that puts the reputation of the Church ahead the victims of sexual abuse, so stellar company for the UK to keep.
It seems odd that it should be top.0 -
14,542 new positive cases....0
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1. The Vatican doesn't have a parliamentRobD said:
Vatican city?TheScreamingEagles said:I am right in thinking it is only the UK and Iran that have unelected clergy in their Parliament?
2. It is, however, ruled by an elected monarch - who happens to be a member of the clergy, but is still far from unelected.0 -
May was much, much worse than Johnson and had a much, much worse election result - and even she survived for years. Even IDS survived for years.TOPPING said:
Oh there you are. Just pondering your well-reasoned argument in favour of Boris staying on. It all made sense.kinabalu said:
Not sure I quite go with that rule but Ok I wibble no more. We're sorted. Kenny agrees that we stick at this point. He says the price is still too low and iho Texas is going. And he should know -Stocky said:
You need to stop wibbling about your bet.kinabalu said:Yep, looking good.
And if I could pose a question to the group of posters (I think you know who you are) who are both keen punters and share my view that Trump will lose and it won't be close -
What iyo is a Fair Value sell price for Biden EC supremacy right now?
Never close out, that`s my rule. But remind me what your bet is and on which market specifically - and what it is currently trading at.
Except...the man always was patently unfit to be PM as is universally accepted. As was indeed TMay. Neither was just "bad", and each had a trait which would mean that they would at some time be found out and deposed one way or another. Or leave.
These things have a habit of not working in 24-hr rolling news time but in politics time which can be months and months as it was with May. When she became PM plenty called her a dead woman walking and so it proved. It's the same with Boris imo. He is not fit to be PM, as many fundamental character and political flaws and hence it is a matter of time before he goes.
Is the reason I have backed him to be out by Sep '21.
Very, very unlikely Johnson will be gone next year. I doubt Boris will go before 2023 at the earliest.1 -
See what Cardinal Law did in Boston (and other Cardinals did elsewhere) and it is practically mandatory to put the reputation of the Church before all else.Omnium said:
Are there things that rank above sexual abuse in the priorities?TheScreamingEagles said:
That's not a proper Parliament, plus it's not a real country either.RobD said:
Vatican city?TheScreamingEagles said:I am right in thinking it is only the UK and Iran that have unelected clergy in their Parliament?
But it is another 'country' that puts the reputation of the Church ahead the victims of sexual abuse, so stellar company for the UK to keep.
It seems odd that it should be top.0 -
I've decided the plural of 'cardinals' is now going to be 'cardinali'.0
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Could be wrong but I believe the Iranian Parliament has seats set aside for a small number of Zoroastrians.0
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Anyone got an opinion on the Galaxy Tab 7 Plus ?0
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I tend to agree with you. Especially over the last few weeks, I've been very impressed with Biden. He's been very dignified and has struck the right tone. I'm not sure that he'll achieve anything very concrete in legislation terms (presidents are limited in that respect anyway), but I think he might just be the right person to calm down the increasingly unpleasant polarisation of US politics - in a way which Hillary Clinton, or Elizabeth Warren, or even Kamala Harris, wouldn't have been able to do. Biden does have a long record of cross-party cooperation, and will be able to represent America as a whole quite well, I hope.Anabobazina said:1 -
A £10 tax on every pineapple pizza bought/sold/eaten.No_Offence_Alan said:
A tax on other people - I'm in!Stocky said:Re: the wealth tax discussions this morning - I note that no-one suggested a tax on gambling winnings!
If pineapple on pizza is that good people will pay tax willingly.0 -
Yes, but I was asking you, not them.TheScreamingEagles said:
See what Cardinal Law did in Boston (and other Cardinals did elsewhere) and it is practically mandatory to put the reputation of the Church before all else.Omnium said:
Are there things that rank above sexual abuse in the priorities?TheScreamingEagles said:
That's not a proper Parliament, plus it's not a real country either.RobD said:
Vatican city?TheScreamingEagles said:I am right in thinking it is only the UK and Iran that have unelected clergy in their Parliament?
But it is another 'country' that puts the reputation of the Church ahead the victims of sexual abuse, so stellar company for the UK to keep.
It seems odd that it should be top.0 -
And of course during the election, SLab and SLD will not count as unionists.kle4 said:
For a second there i thought you meant an SCON majority not merely a unionist one!HYUFD said:
That depends, if Douglas Ross leads Unionists to a majority at Holyrood next year and Sturgeon loses her majority he will be the greatest Scottish Tory leader in history and worthy of a knighthood if not more.OnboardG1 said:
He's going to end up with a Ruth Davidson problem. He's not going to be able to save the Scottish Tories because Johnson insists on shitting in his cornflakes every morning, but he's going to struggle to get back into Westminster politics even if he does as good a job as he can in the circumstances.TheScreamingEagles said:I'm turning into a fan of Douglas Ross.
https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/1313478463760855042
Of course part of that would be winning the Moray seat at Holyrood held by the SNP but which he holds at Westminster0 -
And of course logically it implies allowing claims for losses! Somehow I don't see HMRC standing for that one.No_Offence_Alan said:
A tax on other people - I'm in!Stocky said:Re: the wealth tax discussions this morning - I note that no-one suggested a tax on gambling winnings!
0 -
I find it hard to believe someone can become Cardinal without also being a ruthless politician. Sure, some might be great benevolent figures as well, but you don't get selected for a position of significant power and influence without fighting hard to get noticed, surely?TheScreamingEagles said:
See what Cardinal Law did in Boston (and other Cardinals did elsewhere) and it is practically mandatory to put the reputation of the Church before all else.Omnium said:
Are there things that rank above sexual abuse in the priorities?TheScreamingEagles said:
That's not a proper Parliament, plus it's not a real country either.RobD said:
Vatican city?TheScreamingEagles said:I am right in thinking it is only the UK and Iran that have unelected clergy in their Parliament?
But it is another 'country' that puts the reputation of the Church ahead the victims of sexual abuse, so stellar company for the UK to keep.
It seems odd that it should be top.0 -
The problem with the Biden EC market is that the hat above 300 it starts getting very lumpy.
On Universal Swing based on national average Biden is on 345 ECs. The next step up after that is Texas. So 383 ECs. Similarly going down it could be Florida and down 29 votes to 316. Knock of Georgia and NC as well and you are below 300 for a plausible map even with a massive Biden popular vote win.1 -
A 50p surcharge for every time someone who doesn't eat pineapple on pizza mentions the stuff. Like a national swear jar to which you could pay for a new hospital all by yourself.TheScreamingEagles said:
A £10 tax on every pineapple pizza bought/sold/eaten.No_Offence_Alan said:
A tax on other people - I'm in!Stocky said:Re: the wealth tax discussions this morning - I note that no-one suggested a tax on gambling winnings!
If pineapple on pizza is that good people will pay tax willingly.0 -
I don't think anyone thinks he is dazzling or the second Obama. Just not being Donald Trump is good enough.contrarian said:I appreciate the breathless excitement for the dazzling candidate, the second Obama, that is Joe Biden, but I would be wary of getting sucked into Biden now the markets have already moved.
0 -
I loved learning about the Borgia Popes, and some of the chicanery regarding election of Popes is always fun, particularly the Antipopes.kle4 said:
I find it hard to believe someone can become Cardinal without also being a ruthless politician. Sure, some might be great benevolent figures as well, but you don't get selected for a position of significant power and influence without fighting hard to get noticed, surely?TheScreamingEagles said:
See what Cardinal Law did in Boston (and other Cardinals did elsewhere) and it is practically mandatory to put the reputation of the Church before all else.Omnium said:
Are there things that rank above sexual abuse in the priorities?TheScreamingEagles said:
That's not a proper Parliament, plus it's not a real country either.RobD said:
Vatican city?TheScreamingEagles said:I am right in thinking it is only the UK and Iran that have unelected clergy in their Parliament?
But it is another 'country' that puts the reputation of the Church ahead the victims of sexual abuse, so stellar company for the UK to keep.
It seems odd that it should be top.1
