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On the spreads Biden has moved up from 281 ECVs a month ago to 313 this afternoon – politicalbetting
On the spreads Biden has moved up from 281 ECVs a month ago to 313 this afternoon – politicalbetting.com
My main betting on the White House Race has been on the SportingIndex spread betting markets.
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If I were in this market (I am not) I would wait for then.
Personally, I value my ability to sleep well at night too highly for the spreads (but good luck all).
And if I could pose a question to the group of posters (I think you know who you are) who are both keen punters and share my view that Trump will lose and it won't be close -
What iyo is a Fair Value sell price for Biden EC supremacy right now?
Personally I'm holding my open bet (like Mike's, equivalent to a buy at 284) for now.
https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/coronaviris-vaccine-political-bombshell-george-osborne-a4564456.html
Can't do any better than use 538s suggestion. That reckons 338/200 to Biden so a supremacy of 138. I'd round that down to 100 for MoE which is still 14 points above Biden's buy price of 86.
Personally I bought in much lower than that (hat-tip Richard Nabavi) but I'd be happy to buy in again at 86 if Sporting would let me but for some reason the bastards limit strictly the extent to which they're prepared to supplement my pension.
Subject to all the usual caveats (spread betting is reisky etc) I'd suggest you calculate the maximum loss you could bear without becoming suicidal and figure out what stake would lose you that if you finished 200 points down. Then buy for that stake. (E.g. if you can bear to lose £1,000 your stake should be £5 per point.)
I know the risks of spread betting and have been burned myself from time to time, but I think the downside risks here are low because of the extreme improbability of a Trump landslide. It's for that reason I have maxed out on this market.
Hope that helps. Good luck.
Healthy young adults will eventually get the vaccine but we'd already be back to normal by the time they do.
As far as I'm concerned once the vulnerable have been vaccinated I'm eager to get back to normal. I don't care about myself, I just don't want my grandparents to get it.
There are obviously sound reasons for vaccinating particular groups first, but any subsequent rationing is a political decision.
https://twitter.com/nickgutteridge/status/1313448603319521280?s=20
Electoral-vote.com is showing likely dem = 319, going up to 350 if you include barely dem and 374 if Biden wins the tossups.
After that it's Texas which seems unlikely but not impossible.
I think the rest of the EU have told the French to shut up about Fish, so we will get our way on that, probably with a transition.
I also think that once we're vaccinated, we oldies are going to be out on the razzle as soon as we jolly well can!
https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/1313478463760855042
https://xkcd.com/2355/
Never close out, that`s my rule. But remind me what your bet is and on which market specifically - and what it is currently trading at.
Not four thousand.
Not four hundred.
Not forty.
Four.
If you agree that should Trump win it will be by a very narrow margin, Betfair`s "Trump Electoral College Votes" market at 270 -299 has Trump at 7.4 which would be a good insurance bet. (I think another poster mentioned this a couple of weeks back.)
From each according to his ability, to each according to his need.
Gyms and swimming pools also threatened by Covid pandemic
UK Active chief says centres are vital to public health
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2020/oct/06/government-urged-to-classify-leisure-centres-swimming-pools-gyms-essential-or-face-mass-closures-covid
There's always been the potential for different EU countries to use the Brexit negotiations as leverage in internal EU disputes. They've done surprisingly well to avoid that so far, or at least to avoid it becoming public.
But it's a 2020 sort of way that talks might be derailed at the last moment.
But of course I'd say that, I went to Uni (Go Leicester!)
Even if from a pure cost-benefit pov, universal immunisation isn't worth doing the psychological effect for the general population of a vaccine for everyone not being around the corner is potentially very high. Especially as politics and the media are doing their best to scare/guilt younger people into compliances with tales of long Covid etc (noticed another one on the BBC homepage today) - which no doubt are accurate, but not representative of a typical experience for a younger person.
Still
Of course part of that would be winning the Moray seat at Holyrood held by the SNP but which he holds at Westminster
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1313480290497593346?s=20
Some of the vaccines will be less effective in the elderly. Some might protect against lung damage, but not prevent transmission. Some may have serious side effects.
The worst thing we could do now would be to come up with a rigid plan for an idealised vaccine and then stick to that plan when it doesn't fit the first vaccine that becomes available.
BICIPOTUS
In hindsight perhaps we could have thrown a ring round and effectively campus-ised even city based universities: healthy - come along; young & shielding - here is our remote offer; home based - we have an accommodation deal this year only if you want, lecturing - let the early courses be done by the younger, healthier academics and structure remote/onsite accordingly, and isolate those guys after work; similarly student only bars/Tesco Metros staffed accordingly. With lots and lots of advanced thought and planning it is a segmentation strategy that might have had some degree of success.
https://twitter.com/LeftFootFwd/status/1313482929817948170?s=20
When the Scottish Parl campaign opens, and the media is required to report the other parties, I think there is potential for him to generate an uptick in the SCon numbers. I think this is what happened in 2016 when Ruth got going. SLAB still stuck with Leonard means they will struggle despite Sir Keir's best efforts.
What is the number of other people who have been infected by those u20s?
What is the number of people among these who then went on to infect other people?
What is the number of people among these who have suffered significant health damage?
What is the number of people among these who have suffered the ultimate health damage?
And, most importantly, which of these numbers is the most relevant when assessing the public health risk?
Plus season is a year that ends in one, so 'Arry might not be wrong.
Am backing Everton in the hope of the curse of Eagles strikes again.