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A month ago Trump and Biden were level-pegging in the WH2020 betting. Now there’s a big gap – politi

SystemSystem Posts: 12,651
edited October 2020 in General
A month ago Trump and Biden were level-pegging in the WH2020 betting. Now there’s a big gap – politicalbetting.com

Latest Biden – Trump betting. Chart @betdatapolitics pic.twitter.com/jUlWi9TFpb

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Comments

  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,987
    edited October 2020
    First. And waiting for the next comment...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,666
    Second First.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,943
    Just been catching up with the last thread... Dear god! Matt Hancock is still as big a moron as ever!!! :(
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Biden is still value.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,630
    Genuine question: How did the Betfair exchange look in the couple of months lead into the 2016 election?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Andy_JS said:

    I think a value bet would be on Biden winning the election and Trump (slightly) increasing his share of the vote compared to 2016.

    I asked Shadsy for a Trump vs Trump match bet for his 2016 vs 2020 vote.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,524
    Alistair said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I think a value bet would be on Biden winning the election and Trump (slightly) increasing his share of the vote compared to 2016.

    I asked Shadsy for a Trump vs Trump match bet for his 2016 vs 2020 vote.
    Was that percentage or raw numbers?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,762
    https://twitter.com/rewegreatyet/status/1311789598008315914?s=19
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    dixiedean said:

    Alistair said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I think a value bet would be on Biden winning the election and Trump (slightly) increasing his share of the vote compared to 2016.

    I asked Shadsy for a Trump vs Trump match bet for his 2016 vs 2020 vote.
    Was that percentage or raw numbers?
    I had asked raw votes but either would work for me. Shadsy said he would have a think but has not got back to me.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Foxy said:

    https://twitter.com/rewegreatyet/status/1311789598008315914?s=19

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p13yZAjhU0M
  • isamisam Posts: 42,398
    The govts next COVID advice should be this

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zUhJLBk-Q9k
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,524
    Alistair said:

    dixiedean said:

    Alistair said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I think a value bet would be on Biden winning the election and Trump (slightly) increasing his share of the vote compared to 2016.

    I asked Shadsy for a Trump vs Trump match bet for his 2016 vs 2020 vote.
    Was that percentage or raw numbers?
    I had asked raw votes but either would work for me. Shadsy said he would have a think but has not got back to me.
    Let me know if you get a response. That IS an interesting bet.
    Not sure I could come up with an instant idea.
    Which possibly shows how uncertain I am about it.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 37,187
    edited October 2020
    Biden could win by 6 points, for instance 52.5% to 46.5%, which would be a slight increase in Trump's share of the vote from the 46% he got in 2016.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    https://twitter.com/damonwake/status/1311782683694051332?s=20
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,669
    https://twitter.com/CCDD_HSPH/status/1311743182443606016
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Andy_JS said:

    Biden could win by 6 points, for instance 52.5% to 46.5%, which would be a slight increase in Trump's share of the vote from the 46% he got in 2016.

    That would be an exceedingly low others/spoilt ballot share though. Americans have a long tradition of writing in things on their ballot and here that'd be excluded as a spoilt ballot but there its counted I believe?
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,784
    edited October 2020
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Biden is still value.

    Indeed.

    Reasoning: A month ago 538 had Biden with a 69% chance. Now he's up to 80%, his highest yet (a +11% increase, compared to the +13% increase in Betfair over the period.) However, very few of the polls which inform 538's modelling as yet post-date the TV debate (sample periods in the main predate 30th Sept). So when those polls come out in the next few days I expect them to be good for Biden and for that 80% to increase. By contrast, the movement in the Betfair market over the past does already take full account of perceptions of the outcome of the TV debate. Allow for those timing differences, and the movement in Betfair and 538's assessment will be no less than the movement in Betfair. So if you think that 538 are calling it right, at least in their assessment of the MOVEMENT in Biden's chances, it follows that there's just as much value in Biden now as there was a month ago.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,669
    And if you only test people once 5hey show symptoms, you’re too late (setting aside the c.50% asymptomatic you’ll miss totally)

    https://twitter.com/avivi/status/1311720703675240458
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,669
    Anecdotally, btw, mask wearing compliance has increased dramatically in the last week.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Biden is still value.

    Indeed.

    Reasoning: A month ago 538 had Biden with a 69% chance. Now he's up to 80%, his highest yet (a +11% increase, compared to the +13% increase in Betfair over the period.) However, very few of the polls which inform 538's modelling as yet post-date the TV debate (sample periods in the main predate 30th Sept). So when those polls come out in the next few days I expect them to be good for Biden and for that 80% to increase. By contrast, the movement in the Betfair market over the past does already take full account of perceptions of the outcome of the TV debate. Allow for those timing differences, and the movement in Betfair and 538's assessment will be no less than the movement in Betfair. So if you think that 538 are calling it right, at least in their assessment of the MOVEMENT in Biden's chances, it follows that there's just as much value in Biden now as there was a month ago.
    Indeed.

    Plus with Biden routinely over 50% share and ~6-8 points in the lead there's frankly not much of a path to Trump winning other than a major polling error or a major swing in the polls.

    A swing in the polls is possible but every day that it doesn't happen is a day it becomes less plausible and likely. Especially with 1/3rd of the debates out of the way already and millions of votes cast already, just what is going to move Biden's share down when its been steady as a rock for months now?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,669
    Trump lost Scott Adams.

    https://twitter.com/thejd800/status/1311735674161131520
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    It’s not over till it’s over but Trumps debate meltdown looks like making any comeback even more difficult.

    Biden needed at least a draw as he was leading in the polls but got a win and Trumps reluctance to call out white supremecists is going to make his drop in suburban voters support even worse.

    The next debate is a townhall format which is better suited to Biden, even before that loads of states will start early in person voting.

  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,784
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Biden could win by 6 points, for instance 52.5% to 46.5%, which would be a slight increase in Trump's share of the vote from the 46% he got in 2016.

    That would be an exceedingly low others/spoilt ballot share though. Americans have a long tradition of writing in things on their ballot and here that'd be excluded as a spoilt ballot but there its counted I believe?
    Yes, other candidates are surely going to get more than 1% between them!

    Incidentally, it's worth noting that the Green Party candidate is not on the ballot in quite a few of the states which will be in play in a close contest. He's relying on write-ins in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, NH, Arizona and NE-2 as well as the Biden longer shots of Georgia and Alaska. In Nevada he's off the ballot altogether. That means that Biden has dodged some of the bullets. By contrast, the Libertarian candidate is on the ballot everywhere.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Nigelb said:

    Trump lost Scott Adams.

    https://twitter.com/thejd800/status/1311735674161131520

    Boo hoo.

    Why the fuck was this overrated egotist supporting Trumpton in the first place?
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,192
    Nigelb said:

    Trump lost Scott Adams.

    twitter.com/thejd800/status/1311735674161131520

    He does not sound f***in' pleased about the whole f***in' thing. He seems to be totally f***ed off by it.

    What a f*** up......

    I think the worst he ever had Dilbert swear was "Dang!"
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,192
    Anabobazina said:

    Nigelb said:

    Trump lost Scott Adams.

    twitter.com/thejd800/status/1311735674161131520

    Boo hoo.

    Why the fuck was this overrated egotist supporting Trumpton in the first place?
    Are you serious? Trump was just Dogbert with a lobotomy. Same sense of morals though ...
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Nigelb said:

    Trump lost Scott Adams.

    https://twitter.com/thejd800/status/1311735674161131520

    For about 60 minutes.

    https://twitter.com/ScottAdamsSays/status/1311777995183460353
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    https://twitter.com/Yascha_Mounk/status/1311782967983960065
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    US Presidential Anecdata:

    Our farrier came by today. He lives in deepest darkest PA, gun owning, early 40s 2016 Trump voter, sons are State wrestling champions. A man's man.

    He had progressed from "I don't like Trump, but he's the only one even willing to name the problems ..." to "He doesn't have all the answers, but he's closer than anyone else" to "He is awful. I can't stand Biden, and Pence is better than Harris, but I cannot vote for Trump. I think I'll have to vote for Biden."

    He is convinced PA is going for Biden.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Nigelb said:

    Trump lost Scott Adams.

    https://twitter.com/thejd800/status/1311735674161131520

    For about 60 minutes.

    https://twitter.com/ScottAdamsSays/status/1311777995183460353
    What a helmet.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,524
    Nigelb said:

    Anecdotally, btw, mask wearing compliance has increased dramatically in the last week.

    Accords with my Newcastle Metro experience this evening.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,524
    Scott Adams and Steve Baker both getting a fair bit of flak for adopting a less than predictable position.
    One of them is a snowflake who runs for the hills at the first sign of crossfire.
    The other goes up a long way in my estimation.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,524
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Nigelb said:

    Trump lost Scott Adams.

    https://twitter.com/thejd800/status/1311735674161131520

    For about 60 minutes.

    https://twitter.com/ScottAdamsSays/status/1311777995183460353
    The logic of a coward.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,759
    Really interesting how wrong a lot of the insta-takes on the debate were. People assume that everybody already understood what a terrible person Donald Trump is, but they didn't.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,245
    I'm just doing some marketing stuff for my auto insurance business, and was looking at median household income by zipcode.

    There are zipcodes in Arizona where average household income is below $15,000. There's one zipcode where it's below $10,000.
  • dodradedodrade Posts: 597
    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/Yascha_Mounk/status/1311782967983960065

    To be fair that's how the USA was created in the first place.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 37,187
    edited October 2020
    rcs1000 said:

    I'm just doing some marketing stuff for my auto insurance business, and was looking at median household income by zipcode.

    There are zipcodes in Arizona where average household income is below $15,000. There's one zipcode where it's below $10,000.

    The voting figures for those areas would be interesting, and to compare them to 30 or 40 years ago.
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,466
    Andy_JS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I'm just doing some marketing stuff for my auto insurance business, and was looking at median household income by zipcode.

    There are zipcodes in Arizona where average household income is below $15,000. There's one zipcode where it's below $10,000.

    The voting figures for those areas would be interesting, and to compare them to 30 or 40 years ago.
    If they even register/and or vote at all....
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 37,187
    "Paris poised for maximum Covid alert

    French authorities could place Paris under maximum Covid alert from Monday, the country's health minister warned.
    Olivier Véran said infection rates in the capital and its suburbs are rising and a decision on imposing new restrictions will be made on Sunday.
    He added that a "total closure of bars" could be needed in the capital."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-54377726
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,481
    nico679 said:

    It’s not over till it’s over but Trumps debate meltdown looks like making any comeback even more difficult.

    Biden needed at least a draw as he was leading in the polls but got a win and Trumps reluctance to call out white supremecists is going to make his drop in suburban voters support even worse.

    The next debate is a townhall format which is better suited to Biden, even before that loads of states will start early in person voting.

    Next week sees the VP debate between Pence and Harris.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 37,187
    Biden 1.59
    Trump 2.76

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.128151441
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,759
    Trump aide has the rona:

    https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/519265-trump-aide-hope-hicks-tests-positive-for-covid-19#.X3Z1gA_TXSc.twitter
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,759
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    nico679 said:

    It’s not over till it’s over but Trumps debate meltdown looks like making any comeback even more difficult.

    Biden needed at least a draw as he was leading in the polls but got a win and Trumps reluctance to call out white supremecists is going to make his drop in suburban voters support even worse.

    The next debate is a townhall format which is better suited to Biden, even before that loads of states will start early in person voting.

    Next week sees the VP debate between Pence and Harris.
    I doubt that'll shift any votes unless Kamala Harris says something dumb which she probably won't, she's pretty sure-footed.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 37,187
    Have we had this poll on PB?

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1311575551732314113
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,466
    edmundintokyo said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    nico679 said:

    It’s not over till it’s over but Trumps debate meltdown looks like making any comeback even more difficult.

    Biden needed at least a draw as he was leading in the polls but got a win and Trumps reluctance to call out white supremecists is going to make his drop in suburban voters support even worse.

    The next debate is a townhall format which is better suited to Biden, even before that loads of states will start early in person voting.

    Next week sees the VP debate between Pence and Harris.
    I doubt that'll shift any votes unless Kamala Harris says something dumb which she probably won't, she's pretty sure-footed.
    I think you are right...though a relatively youthful Afro-Asian American female from California vs a Mid-Western 60 something Mike Pence will really bring into contrast and highlight Trump's reliance on a rather narrow core vote.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,771
    https://twitter.com/bpolitics/status/1311822502511992834
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,771
    https://twitter.com/ProjectLincoln/status/1311847287509770240
  • Kevin_McCandlessKevin_McCandless Posts: 392
    swing_voter said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    nico679 said:

    It’s not over till it’s over but Trumps debate meltdown looks like making any comeback even more difficult.

    Biden needed at least a draw as he was leading in the polls but got a win and Trumps reluctance to call out white supremecists is going to make his drop in suburban voters support even worse.

    The next debate is a townhall format which is better suited to Biden, even before that loads of states will start early in person voting.

    Next week sees the VP debate between Pence and Harris.
    I doubt that'll shift any votes unless Kamala Harris says something dumb which she probably won't, she's pretty sure-footed.
    I think you are right...though a relatively youthful Afro-Asian American female from California vs a Mid-Western 60 something Mike Pence will really bring into contrast and highlight Trump's reliance on a rather narrow core vote.
    If I remember, Pence didn't do too badly against Tim Kaine last time, The VP is a former radio guy and can think one or two moves ahead.

    Not that matters at all. Still, it might be interesting to see some sort of actual debate, between two smart-or-smartish people.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,759
    I'm not sure if this works but here's a fun way to get to President Harris via an electoral college draw:
    https://twitter.com/14thstreetblues/status/1311857765225320448
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,809
    CNN: Trump now in Quarantine.

    Trump awaiting test result.

    CNN pundit says Trump will get result tonight (ie Thurs US time) and public should be informed of result tonight (ie Thurs US time).
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,466
    Just been looking at the MP Ferrier suspension from HoC. I suspect the SNP wouldnt mind a byelection (if the book is thrown at her) as it would be a useful rallying cry for nationalist voters..... a majority of 5000 should see them ok.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,809
    CNN: Hicks tested positive on Wed night.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,809
    CNN: Trump must already know result of 15 minute test.

    Now awaiting result of more thorough test.

    Trump appeared on Fox News about an hour ago - was not his usual dismissive self re virus - implication is that Trump is likely worried he is positive.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,809
    CNN: Huffington Post journalist on Air Force One with Trump + Hicks was not informed that someone on plane had tested positive.

    Only found out when news broke publicly this evening.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,809
    Huffington Post journalist on CNN: Almost nobody in President's party on Air Force One ever wears a mask (journalists do).
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    edmundintokyo said:

    I'm not sure if this works but here's a fun way to get to President Harris via an electoral college draw:
    https://twitter.com/14thstreetblues/status/1311857765225320448

    If the Electoral College is a 269-269 tie, the election goes to the new House, voting by state with an absolute majority of states required. Currently the House delegations by state are 26-R, 22-D 4-tied. It’s next to impossible for the Dems to take 26 state delegations, but quite possible for the Rs to lose one or more delegations thus deadlocking the House for a contingent election.

    The new Senate would elect the VP, again with an absolute majority of Senators required (so Pence does not break the tie as he is not a Senator).

    The really, really fun part is that in the event of a contingent election where the House fails to elect a President, but the Senate elects a Vice-President, the Veep only becomes Acting President on January 20th, The Speaker of the new House would become Acting Prez if no VP is elected.

    But if the GOP were to reacquire a majority of House delegations in November 2022, then when that new House assembles in January 2023, it could finally complete the 2020 presidential election and reinstall Trump!

    (It would have to be Trump and not some other Republican because in the contigent election the House can only choose from the top three finishers in the Electoral College vote.)
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,759
    edmundintokyo said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    nico679 said:

    It’s not over till it’s over but Trumps debate meltdown looks like making any comeback even more difficult.

    Biden needed at least a draw as he was leading in the polls but got a win and Trumps reluctance to call out white supremecists is going to make his drop in suburban voters support even worse.

    The next debate is a townhall format which is better suited to Biden, even before that loads of states will start early in person voting.

    Next week sees the VP debate between Pence and Harris.
    I doubt that'll shift any votes unless Kamala Harris says something dumb which she probably won't, she's pretty sure-footed.
    OK, I take this back, the VP debate could be important...
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,809
    Looks as if White House may be about to get huge criticism.

    They have not reported Hicks' positive test promptly - so contact tracing will be slow and people won't have gone into quarantine quickly enough.

    Expert saying all contacts should go into quarantine for 14 days.

    But as virus can take several days to catch, it's possible Trump is negative today but will then test positive in a few days.

    If that happens it could take him out of most of the rest of the campaign!
  • HeaterHeater Posts: 5
    edited October 2020
    Pence winning the election tightens to 200.

    And
    https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1311864036288614402
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,759
    Heater said:

    Pence winning the election tightens to 200.

    And
    https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1311864036288614402

    Holy shit, was anybody on Nancy Pelosi for Next President?
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,987
    MikeL said:

    CNN: Trump must already know result of 15 minute test.
    Now awaiting result of more thorough test.
    Trump appeared on Fox News about an hour ago - was not his usual dismissive self re virus - implication is that Trump is likely worried he is positive.

    What does "poetic justice" mean?
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,809
    edited October 2020
    CNN making point Hicks could have caught it from anyone else - so no way of knowing where it goes next.

    Not only Trump, Pence or indeed anyone else may have caught it - and even if test negative, people may only show symptoms in a few days time.

    I guess at least some chance Amy Coney Barrett could have it (though it's a few days since Trump was with her) which could delay Senate Confirmation hearing - potentially until after election.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,809
    edited October 2020
    CNN questioning why no test result yet.

    Also questioning whether Trump will quarantine for 14 days if he tests negative.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    ClippP said:

    MikeL said:

    CNN: Trump must already know result of 15 minute test.
    Now awaiting result of more thorough test.
    Trump appeared on Fox News about an hour ago - was not his usual dismissive self re virus - implication is that Trump is likely worried he is positive.

    What does "poetic justice" mean?
    Dunno the context as the phrase doesn't appear in what you quoted.

    However, I imagine it refers to Trump's flagrant disregard for mask wearing.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    ClippP said:

    MikeL said:

    CNN: Trump must already know result of 15 minute test.
    Now awaiting result of more thorough test.
    Trump appeared on Fox News about an hour ago - was not his usual dismissive self re virus - implication is that Trump is likely worried he is positive.

    What does "poetic justice" mean?
    LOL, roughly speaking. Or "serve him right."
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,759
    Mysticrose said:

    ClippP said:

    MikeL said:

    CNN: Trump must already know result of 15 minute test.
    Now awaiting result of more thorough test.
    Trump appeared on Fox News about an hour ago - was not his usual dismissive self re virus - implication is that Trump is likely worried he is positive.

    What does "poetic justice" mean?
    Dunno the context as the phrase doesn't appear in what you quoted.

    However, I imagine it refers to Trump's flagrant disregard for mask wearing.
    Disregard for mask wearing, holding rallies without regard for the health of people around him, denying the severity of the virus, suppressing data, intimidating administration experts, encouraging people to disregard public health measures, promoting crackpot theories and misinformation.

    I hope he dies a painful death on January 21st, 2021.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,759
    Here it is:
    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1311892190680014849
  • HeaterHeater Posts: 5
    edited October 2020
    Pence now at 80 60 to win the election.
    And the announcement has been made:
    https://twitter.com/CNBC/status/1311893144573825026
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,759
    If Trump and Pence both go down, who do the GOP put up?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,730
    edmundintokyo said:

    Mysticrose said:

    ClippP said:

    MikeL said:

    CNN: Trump must already know result of 15 minute test.
    Now awaiting result of more thorough test.
    Trump appeared on Fox News about an hour ago - was not his usual dismissive self re virus - implication is that Trump is likely worried he is positive.

    What does "poetic justice" mean?
    Dunno the context as the phrase doesn't appear in what you quoted.

    However, I imagine it refers to Trump's flagrant disregard for mask wearing.
    Disregard for mask wearing, holding rallies without regard for the health of people around him, denying the severity of the virus, suppressing data, intimidating administration experts, encouraging people to disregard public health measures, promoting crackpot theories and misinformation.

    I hope he dies a painful death on January 21st, 2021.
    Didn’t he tell an audience that he was safe because he was up here and they were far away down there? Or words to that effect.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,730
    Guardian is BREAKING both Trump and Melania are positive
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,730
    US President Donald Trump has tested positive for Covid, he has just announced on Twitter. The president tweeted:

    Tonight, @FLOTUS and I tested positive for COVID-19. We will begin our quarantine and recovery process immediately. We will get through this TOGETHER!
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Betfair suspended
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,730

    Trump has Covid

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,730
    BFE Next President suspended with Pence at 46

    New Thread incoming......?
  • HeaterHeater Posts: 5

    Betfair have suspended their "Next President" (meaning the election winner) market.
    Prices are showing
    Biden 1.56
    Trump 3
    Pence 36
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,730
    He doesn’t have symptoms so presumably very recently infected. Likely to be the most infectious high viral load pre-symptomatic stage (see upthread) so given their lack of precautions this is unlikely to be the end of the chain within the presidential camp.

    If he gets symptoms they could be a few days away. Typically there is then a week or so before either recovery or the illness turns serious. So we could be into next weekend before we start to get an idea of how this would go.

    Worst case for him, if things turn serious we could reach mid October with him seriously ill.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,730
    edited October 2020
    Heater said:


    Betfair have suspended their "Next President" (meaning the election winner) market.
    Prices are showing
    Biden 1.56
    Trump 3
    Pence 36

    Somehow the odds are still changing even though the market,is suspended?
  • HeaterHeater Posts: 5
    edmundintokyo said:

    If Trump and Pence both go down, who do the GOP put up?

    One of the following:

    Haley
    Ryan
    Rubio
    Cruz
    Romney
    Kasich
    Cotton

    Haley and Ryan more likely; Kasich and Cotton long shots; the others in the middle.
  • GadflyGadfly Posts: 1,205
    IanB2 said:

    Heater said:


    Betfair have suspended their "Next President" (meaning the election winner) market.
    Prices are showing
    Biden 1.56
    Trump 3
    Pence 36

    Somehow the odds are still changing even though the market,is suspected?
    I suspect that's raised suspicions :)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,730
    Guardian speculating that Pence has been close enough to Trump several times recently.
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,466
    I cant see any positives for DT on this. Is there a likelihood of a delay to the vote in November (is it possible/desirable?) I have made a few bets in favour of the Dems...
  • HeaterHeater Posts: 5
    IanB2 said:

    He doesn’t have symptoms so presumably very recently infected. Likely to be the most infectious high viral load pre-symptomatic stage (see upthread) so given their lack of precautions this is unlikely to be the end of the chain within the presidential camp.

    If he gets symptoms they could be a few days away. Typically there is then a week or so before either recovery or the illness turns serious. So we could be into next weekend before we start to get an idea of how this would go.

    Worst case for him, if things turn serious we could reach mid October with him seriously ill.

    It's not just the presidential camp. Biden was at the debate too. I'm not sure how physically close they got, or how close to the same surfaces. If I were Biden I'd get tested. Possibly even quarantine would be sensible, but a difficult call politically.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,730
    Now Guardian is reminding everyone that Biden was with Trump on Tuesday
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,759
    swing_voter said:

    I cant see any positives for DT on this. Is there a likelihood of a delay to the vote in November (is it possible/desirable?) I have made a few bets in favour of the Dems...

    I would say none, you'd need legislation and I don't see why the Dems would pass it.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    edited October 2020
    Well there’s a flock of black Swans. Trump and possibly Biden with COVID in the month leading up to polling day. I hope they don’t get sick and/or recover quickly. Someone at the Whitehouse needs to hide the toilet duck in case someone tries to inject it.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,730
    edited October 2020

    Quarantined thread

    Stay away

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