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A month ago Trump and Biden were level-pegging in the WH2020 betting. Now there’s a big gap – politi
A month ago Trump and Biden were level-pegging in the WH2020 betting. Now there’s a big gap – politicalbetting.com
Latest Biden – Trump betting. Chart @betdatapolitics pic.twitter.com/jUlWi9TFpb
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zUhJLBk-Q9k
Not sure I could come up with an instant idea.
Which possibly shows how uncertain I am about it.
Reasoning: A month ago 538 had Biden with a 69% chance. Now he's up to 80%, his highest yet (a +11% increase, compared to the +13% increase in Betfair over the period.) However, very few of the polls which inform 538's modelling as yet post-date the TV debate (sample periods in the main predate 30th Sept). So when those polls come out in the next few days I expect them to be good for Biden and for that 80% to increase. By contrast, the movement in the Betfair market over the past does already take full account of perceptions of the outcome of the TV debate. Allow for those timing differences, and the movement in Betfair and 538's assessment will be no less than the movement in Betfair. So if you think that 538 are calling it right, at least in their assessment of the MOVEMENT in Biden's chances, it follows that there's just as much value in Biden now as there was a month ago.
https://twitter.com/avivi/status/1311720703675240458
Plus with Biden routinely over 50% share and ~6-8 points in the lead there's frankly not much of a path to Trump winning other than a major polling error or a major swing in the polls.
A swing in the polls is possible but every day that it doesn't happen is a day it becomes less plausible and likely. Especially with 1/3rd of the debates out of the way already and millions of votes cast already, just what is going to move Biden's share down when its been steady as a rock for months now?
https://twitter.com/thejd800/status/1311735674161131520
Biden needed at least a draw as he was leading in the polls but got a win and Trumps reluctance to call out white supremecists is going to make his drop in suburban voters support even worse.
The next debate is a townhall format which is better suited to Biden, even before that loads of states will start early in person voting.
Incidentally, it's worth noting that the Green Party candidate is not on the ballot in quite a few of the states which will be in play in a close contest. He's relying on write-ins in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, NH, Arizona and NE-2 as well as the Biden longer shots of Georgia and Alaska. In Nevada he's off the ballot altogether. That means that Biden has dodged some of the bullets. By contrast, the Libertarian candidate is on the ballot everywhere.
Why the fuck was this overrated egotist supporting Trumpton in the first place?
What a f*** up......
I think the worst he ever had Dilbert swear was "Dang!"
https://twitter.com/SteveBakerHW/status/1311711331200970753?s=20
https://twitter.com/ScottAdamsSays/status/1311777995183460353
Our farrier came by today. He lives in deepest darkest PA, gun owning, early 40s 2016 Trump voter, sons are State wrestling champions. A man's man.
He had progressed from "I don't like Trump, but he's the only one even willing to name the problems ..." to "He doesn't have all the answers, but he's closer than anyone else" to "He is awful. I can't stand Biden, and Pence is better than Harris, but I cannot vote for Trump. I think I'll have to vote for Biden."
He is convinced PA is going for Biden.
One of them is a snowflake who runs for the hills at the first sign of crossfire.
The other goes up a long way in my estimation.
There are zipcodes in Arizona where average household income is below $15,000. There's one zipcode where it's below $10,000.
French authorities could place Paris under maximum Covid alert from Monday, the country's health minister warned.
Olivier Véran said infection rates in the capital and its suburbs are rising and a decision on imposing new restrictions will be made on Sunday.
He added that a "total closure of bars" could be needed in the capital."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-54377726
Trump 2.76
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.128151441
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/519265-trump-aide-hope-hicks-tests-positive-for-covid-19#.X3Z1gA_TXSc.twitter
https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1311575551732314113
Not that matters at all. Still, it might be interesting to see some sort of actual debate, between two smart-or-smartish people.
https://twitter.com/14thstreetblues/status/1311857765225320448
Trump awaiting test result.
CNN pundit says Trump will get result tonight (ie Thurs US time) and public should be informed of result tonight (ie Thurs US time).
Now awaiting result of more thorough test.
Trump appeared on Fox News about an hour ago - was not his usual dismissive self re virus - implication is that Trump is likely worried he is positive.
Only found out when news broke publicly this evening.
The new Senate would elect the VP, again with an absolute majority of Senators required (so Pence does not break the tie as he is not a Senator).
The really, really fun part is that in the event of a contingent election where the House fails to elect a President, but the Senate elects a Vice-President, the Veep only becomes Acting President on January 20th, The Speaker of the new House would become Acting Prez if no VP is elected.
But if the GOP were to reacquire a majority of House delegations in November 2022, then when that new House assembles in January 2023, it could finally complete the 2020 presidential election and reinstall Trump!
(It would have to be Trump and not some other Republican because in the contigent election the House can only choose from the top three finishers in the Electoral College vote.)
They have not reported Hicks' positive test promptly - so contact tracing will be slow and people won't have gone into quarantine quickly enough.
Expert saying all contacts should go into quarantine for 14 days.
But as virus can take several days to catch, it's possible Trump is negative today but will then test positive in a few days.
If that happens it could take him out of most of the rest of the campaign!
And
https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1311864036288614402
Not only Trump, Pence or indeed anyone else may have caught it - and even if test negative, people may only show symptoms in a few days time.
I guess at least some chance Amy Coney Barrett could have it (though it's a few days since Trump was with her) which could delay Senate Confirmation hearing - potentially until after election.
Also questioning whether Trump will quarantine for 14 days if he tests negative.
However, I imagine it refers to Trump's flagrant disregard for mask wearing.
I hope he dies a painful death on January 21st, 2021.
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1311892190680014849
And the announcement has been made:
https://twitter.com/CNBC/status/1311893144573825026
Tonight, @FLOTUS and I tested positive for COVID-19. We will begin our quarantine and recovery process immediately. We will get through this TOGETHER!
Trump has Covid
New Thread incoming......?
Betfair have suspended their "Next President" (meaning the election winner) market.
Prices are showing
Biden 1.56
Trump 3
Pence 36
If he gets symptoms they could be a few days away. Typically there is then a week or so before either recovery or the illness turns serious. So we could be into next weekend before we start to get an idea of how this would go.
Worst case for him, if things turn serious we could reach mid October with him seriously ill.
Haley
Ryan
Rubio
Cruz
Romney
Kasich
Cotton
Haley and Ryan more likely; Kasich and Cotton long shots; the others in the middle.
Quarantined thread
Stay away