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Latest COVID related polling and an excellent cartoon on Boris’s challenge – politicalbetting.com

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Comments

  • rcs1000 said:

    Have you considered changing your username to 'absurd hyperbole'

    I can just imagine your post at the end of WW2.

    "Hundreds of thousands dead. Millions injured or homeless. No jobs to return to as factories bombed or making the wrong things. National debt at 300% of GDP. Might as well commit suicide now. No future ahead of us."
    It's a fair point that could just as easily be applied to the Brexit doomsayers.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    "Is the internet driving us bonkers or just revealing that we were mad all along?
    Conspiracy theories used to be silly, harmless things but the power of social media has made them dark and dangerous weapons

    MICHAEL DEACON
    PARLIAMENTARY SKETCHWRITER"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/men/thinking-man/internet-driving-us-bonkers-just-revealing-mad-along/
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,942
    Andy_JS said:

    "Is the internet driving us bonkers or just revealing that we were mad all along?
    Conspiracy theories used to be silly, harmless things but the power of social media has made them dark and dangerous weapons

    MICHAEL DEACON
    PARLIAMENTARY SKETCHWRITER"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/men/thinking-man/internet-driving-us-bonkers-just-revealing-mad-along/

    Somewhat ironic that is an article in the Telegraph...
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,884
    edited September 2020
    Big chunk of dosh. Possibly the bulk of JP Morgan's assets in the UK?

    https://twitter.com/Brexit/status/1308686699099295745
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100
    FF43 said:

    Big chunk of dosh. Possibly the bulk of JP Morgan's assets in the UK?

    https://twitter.com/Brexit/status/1308686699099295745

    But does the lorry carrying the cash have a permit to enter Kent?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    Good news.

    "Sweden’s virus expert briefs No. 10
    Katy Balls" (£)

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/tegnell-downing-street-briefing
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,526
    edited September 2020
    Andy_JS said:

    Good news.

    "Sweden’s virus expert briefs No. 10
    Katy Balls" (£)

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/tegnell-downing-street-briefing

    "As well as speaking to Oxford University’s Carl Heneghan and Sunetra Gupta, Coffee House understands that Sweden's chief epidemiologist Anders Tegnell contributed to the discussion."

    I am not sure the government should be listening to Mrs IFR is probably less than 0.1%, when it with was provably untrue.
  • Pulpstar said:
    Yes, 18 of them. Pretty good news for Starmer actually - that's not a very big awkward squad. All previous Labour leaders, including Blair, have had a hard left rump; this one is no larger than theirs.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    Jonathan said:

    But does the lorry carrying the cash have a permit to enter Kent?
    We've got all the cards.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100

    We've got all the cards.
    Shame we’re playing chess.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,367
    edited September 2020

    "As well as speaking to Oxford University’s Carl Heneghan and Sunetra Gupta, Coffee House understands that Sweden's chief epidemiologist Anders Tegnell contributed to the discussion."

    I am not sure the government should be listening to Mrs IFR is probably less than 0.1%, when it with was provably untrue.
    I heard her on the radio the other day. I didn't agree with anything she said, it all sounded extremely speculative and at odds with what we've seen to date. Obviously she has the credentials, but what she was saying wasn't far from the wishful thinking and silver bullet stuff that lay people keep on advocating.
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,898
    edited September 2020
    Foxy.

    You state that “on average a covid victim actuarily lost 10 years of life in the first wave.“

    What’s the source for that please?

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,526
    edited September 2020
    glw said:

    I heard her on the radio the other day. I didn't agree with anything she said, it all sounded extremely speculative and at odds with what we've seen to date. Obviously she has the credentials, but what she was saying wasn't far from the wishful thinking and silver bullet stuff that lay people keep on advocating.
    From the anti- nationwide lockdown brigade, Heneghan is a much more reasoned. Far less wishful thinking and more about what are the most effective policies can be put in place e.g. really strict lockdown of care homes.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,269
    stjohn said:

    Foxy.

    You state that “on average a covid victim actuarily lost 10 years of life in the first wave.“

    What’s the source for that please?

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-kills-people-an-average-of-a-decade-before-their-time-11588424401?redirect=amp#click=https://t.co/Vf5p6CEu4I
  • glw said:

    I heard her on the radio the other day. I didn't agree with anything she said, it all sounded extremely speculative and at odds with what we've seen to date. Obviously she has the credentials, but what she was saying wasn't far from the wishful thinking and silver bullet stuff that lay people keep on advocating.
    I don't think there's any scientist that I've been less impressed with, in this pandemic.

    --AS
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,898
    Foxy said:

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-kills-people-an-average-of-a-decade-before-their-time-11588424401?redirect=amp#click=https://t.co/Vf5p6CEu4I
    Thanks.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    Amazing

    https://twitter.com/hannahsarney/status/1308771755348107267

    Covid challenge trials to go ahead.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Amazing

    https://twitter.com/hannahsarney/status/1308771755348107267

    Covid challenge trials to go ahead.

    Won't start until at least January.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,929
    FF43 said:

    The Star front pages are the best thing around just now. To everyone's surprise I guess. Also the Star confirms the bog roll panic buy situation has come back*. So we know it's true.

    * Extra point for the best bog roll pun so far...
    In your usual rolling news channel late night paper review, they are most definitely the outlier now, sort of Daily Sport-lite, and normally passed over as quickly as possible. In a way it's interesting they are still even being included in these reviews at all, because it's very much:

    "Country prepares for lockdown 2.0"
    "Second shutdown begins"
    "Boris announces new restrictions"
    "Fears rise as economy begins to shut down"
    "Ant & Dec in new love triangle controversy" (p.s. half-naked woman on the bottom left!!)

    I've been wondering for a while now when the Daily Star will be dropped out of the paper reviews on account of it not being entirely, how shall we put this, serious.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    eristdoof said:

    Cue Anabobazina to shout "ITS NOT JUST ONE HOUR", missing the real point.
    I do grasp “the real point”.

    But, FYI, it’s not just one hour.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,359
    Pulpstar said:
    Wait, Uncle Ben's is racist now?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    From the anti- nationwide lockdown brigade, Heneghan is a much more reasoned. Far less wishful thinking and more about what are the most effective policies can be put in place e.g. really strict lockdown of care homes.
    Correct. Professor Carl Heneghan has been an interesting, balanced voice throughout.

    And he scored a major coup by informing the government that a bloke who had covid in the past then sadly got knocked down by a bus did not die of coronavirus.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Have to say, despite predicting a Trumpton win, that’s Trumpton saying he’s lost.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,359
    HYUFD said:
    What an idiot, he should mind his own business. Reminds me of the Guardian letter writing campaign.
  • Lol imagine not buying a product anymore because it re-branded
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,942

    I don't think there's any scientist that I've been less impressed with, in this pandemic.

    --AS
    If you'd told me 7 months ago that we would all have a list of our favourite and least favourite epidemiologists and virologists...
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,942

    Correct. Professor Carl Heneghan has been an interesting, balanced voice throughout.

    And he scored a major coup by informing the government that a bloke who had covid in the past then sadly got knocked down by a bus did not die of coronavirus.
    When do we get a Figurine Panini epidemiologists sticker book?
    I, for one can't wait to start collecting.
  • Lol imagine not buying a product anymore because it re-branded

    FWIW I never buy Snickers because they were rebranded from Marathon.
  • glw said:

    I heard her on the radio the other day. I didn't agree with anything she said, it all sounded extremely speculative and at odds with what we've seen to date. Obviously she has the credentials, but what she was saying wasn't far from the wishful thinking and silver bullet stuff that lay people keep on advocating.
    That's how you get to be on the radio, instead of all the other experts who mostly agree with each other and don't say what you want to hear.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,924
    edited September 2020

    To be honest it doesn’t matter. We need approximately 60% usage for effective T&T according to that Guardian article so you can get away with not having one.
    AFAIK no voluntary app has 60% take up in any country.

    And even at 60% it will still be finding only 1/3 of interactions.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    dixiedean said:

    When do we get a Figurine Panini epidemiologists sticker book?
    I, for one can't wait to start collecting.
    Lol!

    Yes, they live in a fleeting era of epidemiologist celebrity.

    Wonderful to be born in this time!
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    On the face of it, the new NHS app seems quite good.

    It looks cool on the iPhone anyway.

    No idea whether it actually works!
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,942
    edited September 2020

    Lol!

    Yes, they live in a fleeting era of epidemiologist celebrity.

    Wonderful to be born in this time!
    Swapsie a a Karol Sikora for a Chris Whitty?
    Go on.
  • AFAIK no voluntary app has 60% take up in any country.

    And even at 60% it will still be finding only 1/3 of interactions.
    I think the interaction number would be better than that because app-wielding demographics will tend to interact with each other more, especially if app uptake is driven by the places where they gather (eg universities are pushing it, or restaurants have a sign saying "please download it").
  • Ally_B1 said:

    FWIW I never buy Snickers because they were rebranded from Marathon.
    It has ALWAYS been Snickers in the land of its birth - the good old USA

    Though perhaps the Mars Co just put a US name on a Brit bar? The real McCoy is rectangular, peanuts and nougat on the inside, coated with milk chocolate on outside.
    .
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    Is there anything more dispiriting than seeing a large group of people sitting in a restaurant or cafe where no-one's talking to anyone else because they're all avidly using their smartphones?
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    edited September 2020
    Trump clearly wants to put Dem voters off from voting threatening chaos and a refusal to leave office even if he loses .

    His comments this evening should disqualify any candidate , he is the most loathsome disgusting individual and the fact 45% at least will vote for him should really worry the rest of the world .

  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,716
    edited September 2020
    nico679 said:

    Trump clearly wants to put Dem voters off from voting threatening chaos and a refusal to leave office even if he loses .

    His comments this evening should disqualify any candidate , he is the most loathsome disgusting individual and the fact 45% at least will vote for him should really worry the rest of the world .

    I thought this thread was a good take about what the Trump people are up to. It's mainly on the Atlantic piece but it also applies to the comments upthread:
    note that Barton Gellman's sources are the Trump campaign and Republican party officials. they are telling you outright that they have the power to steal the election. they are making affirmative claims that they will be able to override the popular will. this is bluster.

    they have never tried this before. they cannot go before the people who can make these decisions -- state legislators, judges -- and say, "this is what we want." because, by god, what if one of them leaked?

    and the short answer is "disaster."

    so they can't approach people individually, in private. they have to make the conspiracy public, because by doing so, they can convince you that they have already won, and because republican apparatchiks can read the Atlantic too.

    in a way, that Atlantic article works like a numbers station, broadcasting an inchoate demand for election fraud to anyone who will listen. it's like me, yesterday, telling you that it's okay to violate your canons of professional conduct in order to protect democracy.

    nobody responded the way they might if i had gone to individual attorneys and suggested that they have a higher duty, and should take particular affirmative action. because what i'm asking for is reasonable, right? you can think of some case in which it would be reasonable?

    not your case, no. but in someone's case. we can all imagine someone who might take these actions and be justified.

    and that person, having read that tweet, might do it. (i mean, almost certainly not, but it's not beyond the scope of things people might do.)

    he might pull this off.

    he doesn't know he can.

    and he can't construct a conspiracy whose membership he knows, because he cannot be assured that when he approaches a conspirator, that they will join the conspiracy.

    so he can only broadcast his desire for a conspiracy.
  • Re: aps, models & such, there was a NOVA documentary this week on slime mold. AND how this one-celled blob could make logical decisions (for example which way to ooze to find food) with amazing accuracy. In one experiment, the slime replicated the traffic & transit infrastructure of greater Tokyo, finding and exploiting the most efficient routes for communication.

    All without a brain. Just like HM's cabinet BUT much more effective AND much lower fuss, mess, waste & expense.
  • Re: aps, models & such, there was a NOVA documentary this week on slime mold. AND how this one-celled blob could make logical decisions (for example which way to ooze to find food) with amazing accuracy. In one experiment, the slime replicated the traffic & transit infrastructure of greater Tokyo, finding and exploiting the most efficient routes for communication.

    That would explain a lot about the traffic infrastructure of greater Tokyo.
  • That would explain a lot about the traffic infrastructure of greater Tokyo.
    Experiment consisted of scientist creating a large grid, and putting oat flakes (the slime's favorite) at locations corresponding to major population centers. Then they let the Blob go to town.

    The network that resulted was quite similar (though not identical) to the existing grid. For better or worse.
  • MangoMango Posts: 1,031
    isam said:



    If the three main parties had done something about mass immigration, there would never have been a referendum for Leave to win. But they couldn't wean themselves off it

    Ah, a hint of the truth. Brexit means Foreigns OUT.
  • 538 projection has Trump's chances down a tick to 22% despite the tighter polls in AZ and PA:
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

    I guess if the national lead is getting wider it thinks either the state polling is just noise or the national polling is more predictive.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    For some annoying reason I find myself awake in the middle of the night. Again.

    Anyway, reflecting on earlier, I must say I should congratulate Philip and others on the EU withdrawing the outrageous threat to not accept exports of British food post Jan 1st. (Provided it can get past the Kent border). It is clearly an example of how we hold the whip hand in these negotiations. I assume that in the spirit of cooperation the U.K. government will be making clear that likewise there is no danger that we will refuse to accept, or generally seek the obstruct, imports of EU food post Jan 1st (eg. from the Republic of Ireland)?
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    I think the interaction number would be better than that because app-wielding demographics will tend to interact with each other more, especially if app uptake is driven by the places where they gather (eg universities are pushing it, or restaurants have a sign saying "please download it").
    How many people, even in the “app wielding demographics” routinely walk about with Bluetooth enabled on their phones?
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,286
    edited September 2020

    It has ALWAYS been Snickers in the land of its birth - the good old USA

    Though perhaps the Mars Co just put a US name on a Brit bar? The real McCoy is rectangular, peanuts and nougat on the inside, coated with milk chocolate on outside.
    .
    There was a Marathon in the USA that was like a Curly Wurly. I agree with Ally, though, Snickers just sounds awful as a name, so I won't have them.

    Similarly, I won't have M&Ms due to the ads as the characters of the Red and Yellow are just so horrible. I know it shouldn't matter, as I quite like the sweets. But is just puts me off the whole thing.

    EDIT: It's not a general opposition to change, by the way. I have no problem with Starburst - I was fine with the Opal Fruits name, but Starburst is also okay.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Andy_JS said:

    Is there anything more dispiriting than seeing a large group of people sitting in a restaurant or cafe where no-one's talking to anyone else because they're all avidly using their smartphones?


    Safest way to communicate with your dining companions during the pandemic!
  • alex_ said:

    How many people, even in the “app wielding demographics” routinely walk about with Bluetooth enabled on their phones?
    My corona tracking app made me turn on Bluetooth when I installed it, and if I try to turn it off it nags me about it. I assume the British one would do that too?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    alex_ said:

    How many people, even in the “app wielding demographics” routinely walk about with Bluetooth enabled on their phones?
    Mostly those who are only ever an hour or two from a charger.

    Annoyingly I'm rather busy today, was going to spend some time deconstructing this new app to see how it worked. If, as expected, it's a battery drain, people will quickly start uninstalling it.

    They'll definitely start uninstalling it if, as suggested above, people get notifications to quarantine backed by a fine, based on the usage data of a voluntary app.

    The actual database does seem to be based on the decentralised Apple/Google model that was discussed previously - so there isn't a massive government-accessible database of all your contacts and locations.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    That's how you get to be on the radio, instead of all the other experts who mostly agree with each other and don't say what you want to hear.
    Yep, yet another example of media being to a large extent culpable for their failure to understand their role to inform people.

    It shouldn't be business as usual for them, they don't need two dubious 'experts' shouting at each other for 10 minutes, one saying that things are too strict and the other that they're not strict enough, and both saying that it's all too confusing when it clearly isn't.

    How far away are we from OFCOM dragging all the editors in for a shouting-at?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Two policemen shot in riots tonight, another gift to Trump.

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1308960421211254785
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    This “you can leave the pub at 10 and all go round to a friends house” the latest example. There are arguments about why the new measures might be pretty ineffective, but this isn’t one of them. The whole point of what the Government is saying is that they are trying to reduce the vectors of transmission, not cut them completely. Hence the talk about prioritising levels of some activities over others. Yes you can go from the pub to a mate’s house. But the vast majority... won’t.

    Where the critics (from a health perspective) are on firmer ground is in arguing that transmission in private homes is more of a risk than transmission in “controlled” environments. The argument being that restricting access to pubs and restaurants is counterproductive if people opt for private meet-ups instead.

    Eg. The point that it’s not much good watching football in the pub, if you might have to leave before the match is finished.
  • Sandpit said:

    Two policemen shot in riots tonight, another gift to Trump.

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1308960421211254785

    This stuff didn't seem to help him last time, most people don't see riots and police brutality and think, "whoever is president must be doing a pretty great job".
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,269
    Mango said:

    Ah, a hint of the truth. Brexit means Foreigns OUT.
    To be fair @isam is one of the few Leavers on here to explicitly acknowledge it as his primary motivation for his vote.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,269
    Andy_JS said:

    Is there anything more dispiriting than seeing a large group of people sitting in a restaurant or cafe where no-one's talking to anyone else because they're all avidly using their smartphones?

    I agree, but that is the way now.

    Our staff room at lunchtime will have nearly everyone* playing on their phones instead of talking to each other. Similarly when you see our students in the cafe, or patients in the waiting area. The more depressing one is seeing parents on their screens while their kids play in the park. At the weekend I saw a man with his phone out and child with her ipad out while walking with their puppy. There was no interaction.

    Smartphone addiction is a big part of our current mental health crisis IMO.

    * including me obviously!

  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    Foxy said:

    To be fair @isam is one of the few Leavers on here to explicitly acknowledge it as his primary motivation for his vote.
    Nor does he say any where that he wants immigrants out. It is quite a different thing to wish for new immigration to be controlled.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    538 projection has Trump's chances down a tick to 22% despite the tighter polls in AZ and PA:
    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

    I guess if the national lead is getting wider it thinks either the state polling is just noise or the national polling is more predictive.

    No, the 538 model is mostly powered by state polls.

    The main factor working against Trump now is time in the 538 model.

    People are already voting.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Sandpit said:

    Two policemen shot in riots tonight, another gift to Trump.

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1308960421211254785

    New York City's homicide rate per 100,000 is about 5
    Lousiville's homicide rate is about 16

    Only one of these places had been targeted for fecundity due to being an anarchist hot-spot.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    felix said:

    Nor does he say any where that he wants immigrants out. It is quite a different thing to wish for new immigration to be controlled.
    It’s a wish for control of immigration above anything, rather than the uncontrolled free-for-all for EU counties but dozens of hoops from non-EU countries, that we have at the moment.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    This stuff didn't seem to help him last time, most people don't see riots and police brutality and think, "whoever is president must be doing a pretty great job".
    Others are thinking “whoever are the governors and mayors in charge of policing these cities are failing miserably”. Law and order is heavily devolved in the US, which is what Trump is trying to highlight.

    He’s offering federal help if they want it - which they don’t, because they’re apparently not too bothered about the left wing violence in their left wing cities.
This discussion has been closed.