Latest COVID related polling and an excellent cartoon on Boris’s challenge – politicalbetting.com

rcs1000 said:

contrarian said:

kyf_100 said:

contrarian said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/ZoraSuleman/status/1308858893712359425

There are signs of a resistance movement among young people against their disgusting treatment at the hands of absolutely everybody in the establishment.

Think back to your school and university days, and compare those with what the young are going through now.

Its quite appalling.

I don't think I'd be paying 10k a year to watch live stream videos in a tiny dorm room and no student bar.

And then to come out into a world where five million are unemployed and the economy has been scarred for decades.

With a huge deficit and debt to contend with. High taxes for ever.

Yeh but a few eighty year old with two co-morbidities lived a few months longer. So that's OK then.

FFS

Have you considered changing your username to 'absurd hyperbole'

I can just imagine your post at the end of WW2.

"Hundreds of thousands dead. Millions injured or homeless. No jobs to return to as factories bombed or making the wrong things. National debt at 300% of GDP. Might as well commit suicide now. No future ahead of us."

It's a fair point that could just as easily be applied to the Brexit doomsayers.

Andy_JS said:

"Is the internet driving us bonkers or just revealing that we were mad all along?
Conspiracy theories used to be silly, harmless things but the power of social media has made them dark and dangerous weapons

MICHAEL DEACON
PARLIAMENTARY SKETCHWRITER"

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/men/thinking-man/internet-driving-us-bonkers-just-revealing-mad-along/

Somewhat ironic that is an article in the Telegraph...

Big chunk of dosh. Possibly the bulk of JP Morgan's assets in the UK?

https://twitter.com/Brexit/status/1308686699099295745

Good news.

"Sweden’s virus expert briefs No. 10
Katy Balls" (£)

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/tegnell-downing-street-briefing

Pulpstar said:

rottenborough said:

CarlottaVance said:

Better off without them then.....

https://twitter.com/OliverMilne/status/1308857401509138434?s=20

https://twitter.com/dansabbagh/status/1308849876445298689

That's your hard left right there.

Yes, 18 of them. Pretty good news for Starmer actually - that's not a very big awkward squad. All previous Labour leaders, including Blair, have had a hard left rump; this one is no larger than theirs.

bigjohnowls said:

Jonathan said:

FF43 said:

Big chunk of dosh. Possibly the bulk of JP Morgan's assets in the UK?

https://twitter.com/Brexit/status/1308686699099295745

But does the lorry carrying the cash have a permit to enter Kent?

We've got all the cards.

Shame we’re playing chess.

Foxy.

You state that “on average a covid victim actuarily lost 10 years of life in the first wave.“

What’s the source for that please?

stjohn said:

Foxy.

You state that “on average a covid victim actuarily lost 10 years of life in the first wave.“

What’s the source for that please?

https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-kills-people-an-average-of-a-decade-before-their-time-11588424401?redirect=amp#click=https://t.co/Vf5p6CEu4I

Foxy said:

stjohn said:

Foxy.

You state that “on average a covid victim actuarily lost 10 years of life in the first wave.“

What’s the source for that please?

https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-kills-people-an-average-of-a-decade-before-their-time-11588424401?redirect=amp#click=https://t.co/Vf5p6CEu4I

Thanks.

Pulpstar said:

Amazing

https://twitter.com/hannahsarney/status/1308771755348107267

Covid challenge trials to go ahead.

Won't start until at least January.

https://twitter.com/sbg1/status/1308895589103538176
https://twitter.com/ProjectLincoln/status/1308897899191959554

https://twitter.com/unclebens_uk/status/1308712717008744448

24 * ratio right now on this.

FrancisUrquhart said:

glw said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Andy_JS said:

Good news.

"Sweden’s virus expert briefs No. 10
Katy Balls" (£)

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/tegnell-downing-street-briefing

"As well as speaking to Oxford University’s Carl Heneghan and Sunetra Gupta, Coffee House understands that Sweden's chief epidemiologist Anders Tegnell contributed to the discussion."

I am not sure the government should be listening to Mrs IFR is probably less than 0.1%, when it with was provably untrue.

I heard her on the radio the other day. I didn't agree with anything she said, it all sounded extremely speculative and at odds with what we've seen to date. Obviously she has the credentials, but what she was saying wasn't far from the wishful thinking and silver bullet stuff that lay people keep on advocating.

From the anti- nationwide lockdown brigade, Heneghan is a much more reasoned. Far less wishful thinking and more about what are the most effective policies can be put in place e.g. really strict lockdown of care homes.

Correct. Professor Carl Heneghan has been an interesting, balanced voice throughout.

And he scored a major coup by informing the government that a bloke who had covid in the past then sadly got knocked down by a bus did not die of coronavirus.

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/sbg1/status/1308895589103538176
https://twitter.com/ProjectLincoln/status/1308897899191959554

Have to say, despite predicting a Trumpton win, that’s Trumpton saying he’s lost.

Anabobazina said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

glw said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Andy_JS said:

Good news.

"Sweden’s virus expert briefs No. 10
Katy Balls" (£)

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/tegnell-downing-street-briefing

"As well as speaking to Oxford University’s Carl Heneghan and Sunetra Gupta, Coffee House understands that Sweden's chief epidemiologist Anders Tegnell contributed to the discussion."

I am not sure the government should be listening to Mrs IFR is probably less than 0.1%, when it with was provably untrue.

I heard her on the radio the other day. I didn't agree with anything she said, it all sounded extremely speculative and at odds with what we've seen to date. Obviously she has the credentials, but what she was saying wasn't far from the wishful thinking and silver bullet stuff that lay people keep on advocating.

From the anti- nationwide lockdown brigade, Heneghan is a much more reasoned. Far less wishful thinking and more about what are the most effective policies can be put in place e.g. really strict lockdown of care homes.

Correct. Professor Carl Heneghan has been an interesting, balanced voice throughout.

And he scored a major coup by informing the government that a bloke who had covid in the past then sadly got knocked down by a bus did not die of coronavirus.

When do we get a Figurine Panini epidemiologists sticker book?
I, for one can't wait to start collecting.

glw said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Andy_JS said:

Good news.

"Sweden’s virus expert briefs No. 10
Katy Balls" (£)

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/tegnell-downing-street-briefing

"As well as speaking to Oxford University’s Carl Heneghan and Sunetra Gupta, Coffee House understands that Sweden's chief epidemiologist Anders Tegnell contributed to the discussion."

I am not sure the government should be listening to Mrs IFR is probably less than 0.1%, when it with was provably untrue.

I heard her on the radio the other day. I didn't agree with anything she said, it all sounded extremely speculative and at odds with what we've seen to date. Obviously she has the credentials, but what she was saying wasn't far from the wishful thinking and silver bullet stuff that lay people keep on advocating.

That's how you get to be on the radio, instead of all the other experts who mostly agree with each other and don't say what you want to hear.

Gallowgate said:

Andy_JS said:

Gallowgate said:

Andy_JS said:

Gallowgate said:

Using the trace app to scan QR codes at venues is a masterstroke because it will massively drive adoption.

I’ve just received an email from McDonalds saying they will require customers to use the app to register their track and trace details. Hopefully most others follow suit.

What about people who don't have smartphones?

They can stay at home.

I refuse to own a smartphone and I'm not staying at home.

To be honest it doesn’t matter. We need approximately 60% usage for effective T&T according to that Guardian article so you can get away with not having one.

AFAIK no voluntary app has 60% take up in any country.

And even at 60% it will still be finding only 1/3 of interactions.

On the face of it, the new NHS app seems quite good.

It looks cool on the iPhone anyway.

No idea whether it actually works!

Flatlander said:

Gallowgate said:

Andy_JS said:

Gallowgate said:

Andy_JS said:

Gallowgate said:

Using the trace app to scan QR codes at venues is a masterstroke because it will massively drive adoption.

I’ve just received an email from McDonalds saying they will require customers to use the app to register their track and trace details. Hopefully most others follow suit.

What about people who don't have smartphones?

They can stay at home.

I refuse to own a smartphone and I'm not staying at home.

To be honest it doesn’t matter. We need approximately 60% usage for effective T&T according to that Guardian article so you can get away with not having one.

AFAIK no voluntary app has 60% take up in any country.

And even at 60% it will still be finding only 1/3 of interactions.

I think the interaction number would be better than that because app-wielding demographics will tend to interact with each other more, especially if app uptake is driven by the places where they gather (eg universities are pushing it, or restaurants have a sign saying "please download it").

Is there anything more dispiriting than seeing a large group of people sitting in a restaurant or cafe where no-one's talking to anyone else because they're all avidly using their smartphones?

nico679 said:

Trump clearly wants to put Dem voters off from voting threatening chaos and a refusal to leave office even if he loses .

His comments this evening should disqualify any candidate , he is the most loathsome disgusting individual and the fact 45% at least will vote for him should really worry the rest of the world .

I thought this thread was a good take about what the Trump people are up to. It's mainly on the Atlantic piece but it also applies to the comments upthread:

note that Barton Gellman's sources are the Trump campaign and Republican party officials. they are telling you outright that they have the power to steal the election. they are making affirmative claims that they will be able to override the popular will. this is bluster.

they have never tried this before. they cannot go before the people who can make these decisions -- state legislators, judges -- and say, "this is what we want." because, by god, what if one of them leaked?

and the short answer is "disaster."

so they can't approach people individually, in private. they have to make the conspiracy public, because by doing so, they can convince you that they have already won, and because republican apparatchiks can read the Atlantic too.

in a way, that Atlantic article works like a numbers station, broadcasting an inchoate demand for election fraud to anyone who will listen. it's like me, yesterday, telling you that it's okay to violate your canons of professional conduct in order to protect democracy.

nobody responded the way they might if i had gone to individual attorneys and suggested that they have a higher duty, and should take particular affirmative action. because what i'm asking for is reasonable, right? you can think of some case in which it would be reasonable?

not your case, no. but in someone's case. we can all imagine someone who might take these actions and be justified.

and that person, having read that tweet, might do it. (i mean, almost certainly not, but it's not beyond the scope of things people might do.)

he might pull this off.

he doesn't know he can.

and he can't construct a conspiracy whose membership he knows, because he cannot be assured that when he approaches a conspirator, that they will join the conspiracy.

so he can only broadcast his desire for a conspiracy.

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Re: aps, models & such, there was a NOVA documentary this week on slime mold. AND how this one-celled blob could make logical decisions (for example which way to ooze to find food) with amazing accuracy. In one experiment, the slime replicated the traffic & transit infrastructure of greater Tokyo, finding and exploiting the most efficient routes for communication.

That would explain a lot about the traffic infrastructure of greater Tokyo.

isam said:

If the three main parties had done something about mass immigration, there would never have been a referendum for Leave to win. But they couldn't wean themselves off it

Ah, a hint of the truth. Brexit means Foreigns OUT.

For some annoying reason I find myself awake in the middle of the night. Again.

Anyway, reflecting on earlier, I must say I should congratulate Philip and others on the EU withdrawing the outrageous threat to not accept exports of British food post Jan 1st. (Provided it can get past the Kent border). It is clearly an example of how we hold the whip hand in these negotiations. I assume that in the spirit of cooperation the U.K. government will be making clear that likewise there is no danger that we will refuse to accept, or generally seek the obstruct, imports of EU food post Jan 1st (eg. from the Republic of Ireland)?

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Ally_B1 said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Lol imagine not buying a product anymore because it re-branded

FWIW I never buy Snickers because they were rebranded from Marathon.

It has ALWAYS been Snickers in the land of its birth - the good old USA

Though perhaps the Mars Co just put a US name on a Brit bar? The real McCoy is rectangular, peanuts and nougat on the inside, coated with milk chocolate on outside.
.

There was a Marathon in the USA that was like a Curly Wurly. I agree with Ally, though, Snickers just sounds awful as a name, so I won't have them.

Similarly, I won't have M&Ms due to the ads as the characters of the Red and Yellow are just so horrible. I know it shouldn't matter, as I quite like the sweets. But is just puts me off the whole thing.

EDIT: It's not a general opposition to change, by the way. I have no problem with Starburst - I was fine with the Opal Fruits name, but Starburst is also okay.

alex_ said:

edmundintokyo said:

Flatlander said:

Gallowgate said:

Andy_JS said:

Gallowgate said:

Andy_JS said:

Gallowgate said:

Using the trace app to scan QR codes at venues is a masterstroke because it will massively drive adoption.

I’ve just received an email from McDonalds saying they will require customers to use the app to register their track and trace details. Hopefully most others follow suit.

What about people who don't have smartphones?

They can stay at home.

I refuse to own a smartphone and I'm not staying at home.

To be honest it doesn’t matter. We need approximately 60% usage for effective T&T according to that Guardian article so you can get away with not having one.

AFAIK no voluntary app has 60% take up in any country.

And even at 60% it will still be finding only 1/3 of interactions.

I think the interaction number would be better than that because app-wielding demographics will tend to interact with each other more, especially if app uptake is driven by the places where they gather (eg universities are pushing it, or restaurants have a sign saying "please download it").

How many people, even in the “app wielding demographics” routinely walk about with Bluetooth enabled on their phones?

My corona tracking app made me turn on Bluetooth when I installed it, and if I try to turn it off it nags me about it. I assume the British one would do that too?

edmundintokyo said:

glw said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Andy_JS said:

Good news.

"Sweden’s virus expert briefs No. 10
Katy Balls" (£)

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/tegnell-downing-street-briefing

"As well as speaking to Oxford University’s Carl Heneghan and Sunetra Gupta, Coffee House understands that Sweden's chief epidemiologist Anders Tegnell contributed to the discussion."

I am not sure the government should be listening to Mrs IFR is probably less than 0.1%, when it with was provably untrue.

I heard her on the radio the other day. I didn't agree with anything she said, it all sounded extremely speculative and at odds with what we've seen to date. Obviously she has the credentials, but what she was saying wasn't far from the wishful thinking and silver bullet stuff that lay people keep on advocating.

That's how you get to be on the radio, instead of all the other experts who mostly agree with each other and don't say what you want to hear.

Yep, yet another example of media being to a large extent culpable for their failure to understand their role to inform people.

It shouldn't be business as usual for them, they don't need two dubious 'experts' shouting at each other for 10 minutes, one saying that things are too strict and the other that they're not strict enough, and both saying that it's all too confusing when it clearly isn't.

How far away are we from OFCOM dragging all the editors in for a shouting-at?

This “you can leave the pub at 10 and all go round to a friends house” the latest example. There are arguments about why the new measures might be pretty ineffective, but this isn’t one of them. The whole point of what the Government is saying is that they are trying to reduce the vectors of transmission, not cut them completely. Hence the talk about prioritising levels of some activities over others. Yes you can go from the pub to a mate’s house. But the vast majority... won’t.

Where the critics (from a health perspective) are on firmer ground is in arguing that transmission in private homes is more of a risk than transmission in “controlled” environments. The argument being that restricting access to pubs and restaurants is counterproductive if people opt for private meet-ups instead.

Eg. The point that it’s not much good watching football in the pub, if you might have to leave before the match is finished.

Mango said:

isam said:

If the three main parties had done something about mass immigration, there would never have been a referendum for Leave to win. But they couldn't wean themselves off it

Ah, a hint of the truth. Brexit means Foreigns OUT.

To be fair @isam is one of the few Leavers on here to explicitly acknowledge it as his primary motivation for his vote.

Sandpit said:

Two policemen shot in riots tonight, another gift to Trump.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1308960421211254785

New York City's homicide rate per 100,000 is about 5
Lousiville's homicide rate is about 16

Only one of these places had been targeted for fecundity due to being an anarchist hot-spot.

edmundintokyo said:

Sandpit said:

Two policemen shot in riots tonight, another gift to Trump.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1308960421211254785

This stuff didn't seem to help him last time, most people don't see riots and police brutality and think, "whoever is president must be doing a pretty great job".

Others are thinking “whoever are the governors and mayors in charge of policing these cities are failing miserably”. Law and order is heavily devolved in the US, which is what Trump is trying to highlight.

He’s offering federal help if they want it - which they don’t, because they’re apparently not too bothered about the left wing violence in their left wing cities.