This week’s most important polling analysis on the White House race – politicalbetting.com
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When things are in chaos, the last thing you want to do is hand them over to somebody infamous for his disorganisation, laziness and inability to master basic details.Philip_Thompson said:
Even assuming it is merely his advisers, not him, that are at the root of the problem.0 -
Worldometer isn't accurate.IanB2 said:-2 -
20-09-2020 3,899 394,254FrancisUrquhart said:
No, you are definitely looking at the wrong date. That is the 16th September.alex_ said:
It says 3899?FrancisUrquhart said:
That is what is says on the dashboard, updated today.alex_ said:
Er, that was yesterday.FrancisUrquhart said:4422 new cases....
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
I believe yesterday was 4322. Today is 4422
Look at Daily cases by date reported, Data tab, on this page,
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases
19-09-2020 4,422 390,358
18-09-2020 4,322 385,936
17-09-2020 3,395 381,614
16-09-2020 3,991 378,2190 -
My bad. My page said it had been updated, but it hadn't updated all the tabs...and I have lost track of the date.Philip_Thompson said:
20-09-2020 3,899 394,254FrancisUrquhart said:
No, you are definitely looking at the wrong date. That is the 16th September.alex_ said:
It says 3899?FrancisUrquhart said:
That is what is says on the dashboard, updated today.alex_ said:
Er, that was yesterday.FrancisUrquhart said:4422 new cases....
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
I believe yesterday was 4322. Today is 4422
Look at Daily cases by date reported, Data tab, on this page,
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases
19-09-2020 4,422 390,358
18-09-2020 4,322 385,936
17-09-2020 3,395 381,614
16-09-2020 3,991 378,2190 -
Today is the 20th of September.FrancisUrquhart said:
No, you are definitely looking at the wrong date. That is the 16th September.alex_ said:
It says 3899?FrancisUrquhart said:
That is what is says on the dashboard, updated today.alex_ said:
Er, that was yesterday.FrancisUrquhart said:4422 new cases....
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
I believe yesterday was 4322. Today is 4422
Look at Daily cases by date reported, Data tab, on this page,
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases
19-09-2020 4,422 390,358
18-09-2020 4,322 385,936
17-09-2020 3,395 381,614
16-09-2020 3,991 378,2191 -
I'm not writing Trump off. He has a punchers chance. But the odds are imo very wrong - hence quite a big bet from me. It feels similar to our GE where there was imo clear value in the Con landslide. Difference in this case is I also want the outcome I'm backing. GE19 was a nice betting profit but otherwise a bad day. It's all or nothing this time, head and heart aligned.MrEd said:
"Are the polls wrong? Yes, obviously. But it's unlikely they are all wrong and biased against Trump by several points unless their methodologies really are missing a chunk of Trump voters."kinabalu said:
Good post. My take -stodge said:Afternoon again all
I've been droning on for weeks about the margin of error and sample sizes in State polls but up pops some numpty in the New York Times and suddenly it's the most insightful analysis since a brave French Marshal opined to Napoleon at Waterloo that if the Prussians showed up in the evening it might get a little awkward.
If you are going to (and I suspect many do this to support their own personal agenda while I can understand the more astute who do it to bolster their trading position) simply re-tweet headline numbers from some dime-a-call US pollster, at least have the decency to find out the margin of error so we all know when we can stop laughing.
If you want almost any result from a Biden landslide to a Trump landslide, the polls will give it but as a rule of thumb I'd take any poll showing either candidate ahead by five points or less to be in the TCTC category.
I'd also take a long hard look at sampling - what is the split between registered Democrats, Republicans and Independents? What is the ethnic split, the split by income?
Too many pollsters (Rasmussen and Trafalgar in particular) either don't reveal the details of their sampling claiming it is "representative" or hide the details behind a paywall. What do they have to hide? Who are they sampling and in what way does that produce such different results from other pollsters?
If I sampled 1500 voters in East Ham and published it as a national opinion poll, I'd be thrown off the British Polling Council and rightly so but we don't know to what extent the methodology and sampling effectively weaponises these polls to create numbers favourable to one side or the other.
Rasmussen and Trafalgar have made an assumption that there ARE lots of "shy Trumpsters" and they adjust their raw data accordingly, using sleight of hand such as "who do you think your neighbours are voting for?" type baloney. Their objective is to stand out from the crowd and cross their fingers that their core assumption - Trump will overperform in key states like last time - is correct. In which case they make themselves a big rep.
The fact of the matter is that the comprehensive polling average (with them included) is a Biden lead of almost 7 points. The latest poll (today) is from NBC, an A rated pollster. Biden by 8. Same lead as a month ago with that pollster. Biden also has a solid lead in most of the battleground states and is within touching distance in several states which were clear wins for Trump in 2016 such as Texas, Ohio, and Georgia.
Are the polls wrong? Yes, obviously. But it's unlikely they are all wrong and biased against Trump by several points unless their methodologies really are missing a chunk of Trump voters. And to the extent they are wrong it is just as likely they are wrong the other way. That they are understating Biden's lead. Indeed given that pollsters tend to over-correct for their latest high profile screw up, it is more likely that the error, if there is one and it's material, is in this direction.
So, Biden leads by 7, his lead looks stable, his lead is at least as likely to be understated as overstated, there are very few undecideds, and the election is only 6 weeks away. He should be a 1/4 favourite and yet is only a shade of odds on. It's the betting opportunity of a lifetime and I have not hesitated in having the biggest spread bet of my life.
Don't overthink it people. It's great fun to do that, but in this case don't. Commonsense and the evidence coincide, and the consequential and obvious conclusion is the right one. America has had enough of Donald Trump as their president, one term was quite sufficient, and they will be voting him out decisively on 3/11.
The problem is you don't need all the polls to be wrong, just some of them and you can get a monumental f*ck up and lose a huge amount, especially if you are spread betting.
So, in Florida, if Trafalgar are right, Trump will win by +2 but, if Monmouth is correct, it will be +5 to Biden. In PA, Rasmussen has a tie, NBC has +9 Biden. In MI, you can either take your +2 for Trump with Trafalgar or your +8 for Biden with EPIC.
And this isn't taking into account states where polling is poor and a Biden win SHOULD mean they are uncompetitive but where both campaigns' actions clearly suggest they see it will be tight. Minnesota and Nevada spring to mind.0 -
saving your presence, what is it with Cambridge English graduates? Him, Burgon, Gopal, my ex Principal, not one with two brain cells to rub together.IanB2 said:0 -
Has anybody had this issue before with the COVID dashboard? I am refreshing the page, it says it has been updated at the top, but it still only shows the data up to yesterday. I presume it is some sort of caching issue.0
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He's suggesting handing it over to the military. Are the military famous for disorganisation, laziness and inability to master basic details?ydoethur said:
When things are in chaos, the last thing you want to do is hand them over to somebody infamous for his disorganisation, laziness and inability to master basic details.Philip_Thompson said:
Even assuming it is merely his advisers, not him, that are at the root of the problem.
I'm not agreeing with him, but I don't understand your objection.0 -
I raise you Jamie Redknapp.FrancisUrquhart said:Is there a worse TV football pundit than Ashley Cole? All that comes out of his mouth is his a whole host of random words that together make no sense.
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Well, truthfully, our military are. Anyone who has a passing grasp of defence procurement could tell you that.Philip_Thompson said:
He's suggesting handing it over to the military. Are the military famous for disorganisation, laziness and inability to master basic details?ydoethur said:
When things are in chaos, the last thing you want to do is hand them over to somebody infamous for his disorganisation, laziness and inability to master basic details.Philip_Thompson said:
Even assuming it is merely his advisers, not him, that are at the root of the problem.
I'm not agreeing with him, but I don't understand your objection.
But the point is, Boris Johnson is either running things, or he isn’t. If he is, he cannot take control. If he isn’t, given his many shortcomings it is hard to see how he wouldn’t make things worse.1 -
Have you tried Ctrl+F5 ?FrancisUrquhart said:Has anybody had this issue before with the COVID dashboard? I am refreshing the page, it says it has been updated at the top, but it still only shows the data up to yesterday. I presume it is some sort of caching issue.
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Nah. Redknapp ain't much good, but the words coming out of his mouth at least form a sentence that can be understood that he is trying to say something. Cole, it is like the worst of Boris, this bumbling nonsense that if you sit back and try to work out what his point was you still have no clue.TheScreamingEagles said:
I raise you Jamie Redknapp.FrancisUrquhart said:Is there a worse TV football pundit than Ashley Cole? All that comes out of his mouth is his a whole host of random words that together make no sense.
As a newly subscribed member of the Athletic, it is a breath of fresh air to read / watch / hear some genuinely insightful analysis, rather than the utter bollocks provided by MOTD, BT and most of Sky.0 -
3899FrancisUrquhart said:
That is what is says on the dashboard, updated today.alex_ said:
Er, that was yesterday.FrancisUrquhart said:4422 new cases....
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
I believe yesterday was 4322. Today is 44220 -
Yeap, still stuck on yesterdays numbers.Philip_Thompson said:
Have you tried Ctrl+F5 ?FrancisUrquhart said:Has anybody had this issue before with the COVID dashboard? I am refreshing the page, it says it has been updated at the top, but it still only shows the data up to yesterday. I presume it is some sort of caching issue.
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Clear your cache.FrancisUrquhart said:
Yeap, still stuck on yesterdays numbers.Philip_Thompson said:
Have you tried Ctrl+F5 ?FrancisUrquhart said:Has anybody had this issue before with the COVID dashboard? I am refreshing the page, it says it has been updated at the top, but it still only shows the data up to yesterday. I presume it is some sort of caching issue.
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All the way through this the German numbers are updated incrementally during the day, in the same way as the American ones, due to reporting of the different States/Lander - but people have taken the German figures as complete national figures and the US figures not. Another example of the general lack of interest in the European continent compared to the American.alex_ said:
The whole things absolute nonsense, if trying to use as a basis for comparison. Everyone does it differently, is testing different numbers and counting in different ways. I'm not even sure that Germany reports a national figure - its numbers change throughout the day. Case numbers are even worse than hospitalisations or deaths, and they are misleading enough.IanB2 said:
Astonishing that the Government ever thought that using figures like this were a basis for judgements on international travel.1 -
True, but err...I think he just trolled himself though!MarqueeMark said:
Fantasic trolling by Boris....Scott_xP said:Are you fucking kidding me?
https://twitter.com/wabbey/status/13076243221026816000 -
It seems to me that the issues around testing are not purely logistical. They involve imbalance of surplus and demand due toPhilip_Thompson said:
He's suggesting handing it over to the military. Are the military famous for disorganisation, laziness and inability to master basic details?ydoethur said:
When things are in chaos, the last thing you want to do is hand them over to somebody infamous for his disorganisation, laziness and inability to master basic details.Philip_Thompson said:
Even assuming it is merely his advisers, not him, that are at the root of the problem.
I'm not agreeing with him, but I don't understand your objection.
- a failure to lay a clearer framework for who should and should not be getting tests,
- that matches up well with available capacity,
- a failure to clearly communicate that framework so that only people who should be seeking tests, are,
- enforcement of this in a way which aligns well with general government guidance and the extent to which testing
is expected to fit in to the risk management of the delivery of public services and the maintenance of a
functioning wider economy
- and on the supply side bottlenecks in lab analysis due to shortage of people to process test results
Simply focussing endlessly on the basic ability of the public and others to actually receive a test will not solve anything until these other areas are addressed. And i don't see how the military will help with any of them. And Starmer's criticism on this is just as poor as anyone else's.1 -
Simple solution is to look at WorldometerFrancisUrquhart said:
Yeap, still stuck on yesterdays numbers.Philip_Thompson said:
Have you tried Ctrl+F5 ?FrancisUrquhart said:Has anybody had this issue before with the COVID dashboard? I am refreshing the page, it says it has been updated at the top, but it still only shows the data up to yesterday. I presume it is some sort of caching issue.
Useless as a basis of comparison (although we have little else, if that is your thing). But they usually report the UK figures "correctly"!0 -
Agreed. Cole is unwatchable - adds no value whatsoever. Redknapp is fairly poor, but is just about bearable.FrancisUrquhart said:
Nah. Redknapp ain't much good, but the words coming out of his mouth at least form a sentence that can be understood that he is trying to say something. Cole, it is like the worst of Boris, this bumbling nonsense that if you sit back and try to work out what his point was you still have no clue.TheScreamingEagles said:
I raise you Jamie Redknapp.FrancisUrquhart said:Is there a worse TV football pundit than Ashley Cole? All that comes out of his mouth is his a whole host of random words that together make no sense.
As a newly subscribed member of the Athletic, it is a breath of fresh air to read / watch / hear some genuinely insightful analysis, rather than the utter bollocks provided by MOTD, BT and most of Sky.0 -
Hidin' Biden hasn't collapsed in front of a taxi yet.FrancisUrquhart said:I presume this Sleepy Joe needs drugs to function is out of the same playbook used to question Hillary's health.
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TBF to the armed forces here isn't defence procurement down to the ministry of defence which is civil servants. I am under the impression the armed forces themselves aren't so badydoethur said:
Well, truthfully, our military are. Anyone who has a passing grasp of defence procurement could tell you that.Philip_Thompson said:
He's suggesting handing it over to the military. Are the military famous for disorganisation, laziness and inability to master basic details?ydoethur said:
When things are in chaos, the last thing you want to do is hand them over to somebody infamous for his disorganisation, laziness and inability to master basic details.Philip_Thompson said:
Even assuming it is merely his advisers, not him, that are at the root of the problem.
I'm not agreeing with him, but I don't understand your objection.
But the point is, Boris Johnson is either running things, or he isn’t. If he is, he cannot take control. If he isn’t, given his many shortcomings it is hard to see how he wouldn’t make things worse.0 -
https://twitter.com/joshabey/status/1307642024724754432
Praising New Labour, Angela has been cancelled0 -
When he did the England game the other week with Alex Scott, it was embarrassing the gulf between him and Alex (who IMO gave reasonable if not earth shattering insight).Anabobazina said:
Agreed. Cole is unwatchable - adds no value whatsoever. Redknapp is fairly poor, but is just about bearable.FrancisUrquhart said:
Nah. Redknapp ain't much good, but the words coming out of his mouth at least form a sentence that can be understood that he is trying to say something. Cole, it is like the worst of Boris, this bumbling nonsense that if you sit back and try to work out what his point was you still have no clue.TheScreamingEagles said:
I raise you Jamie Redknapp.FrancisUrquhart said:Is there a worse TV football pundit than Ashley Cole? All that comes out of his mouth is his a whole host of random words that together make no sense.
As a newly subscribed member of the Athletic, it is a breath of fresh air to read / watch / hear some genuinely insightful analysis, rather than the utter bollocks provided by MOTD, BT and most of Sky.1 -
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/09/20/trumps-flaws-many-better-britain-biden/
Daniel "ABSOLUTELY NOBODY IS THREATENING OUR PLACE IN THE SINGLE MARKET" Hannan0 -
If Biden wins, the free world may find itself longing for a stronger Anglo-American allianceCorrectHorseBattery said:https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/09/20/trumps-flaws-many-better-britain-biden/
Daniel "ABSOLUTELY NOBODY IS THREATENING OUR PLACE IN THE SINGLE MARKET" Hannan
Ye Gods what an absolubtely parochial crock of shite take.1 -
F*** me, martial law! Time to put Boris in one of Idi Amin's old uniforms to gain a bit of gravitas.Philip_Thompson said:
He's suggesting handing it over to the military. Are the military famous for disorganisation, laziness and inability to master basic details?ydoethur said:
When things are in chaos, the last thing you want to do is hand them over to somebody infamous for his disorganisation, laziness and inability to master basic details.Philip_Thompson said:
Even assuming it is merely his advisers, not him, that are at the root of the problem.
I'm not agreeing with him, but I don't understand your objection.2 -
Whoever decides the readings has top trolled Bojo.Mexicanpete said:
True, but err...I think he just trolled himself though!MarqueeMark said:
Fantasic trolling by Boris....Scott_xP said:Are you fucking kidding me?
https://twitter.com/wabbey/status/13076243221026816004 -
@Mexicanpete is a hoot, I have no idea what he's going on about most of the time but I laugh anyway0
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Re: testing - number one priority tell schools to stop sending pupils home at the merest sight of a snivel, and actually focus on real identifiable Covid symptoms. And i struggle fundamentally to understand a process which involves sending entire year groups of several hundred pupils home on the back of single positive test results. Given that anyway for every child with genuine symptoms and testing positive in a year group of several hundred, it would be astonishing if there weren't several other asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic cases, given what we know of the virus.
So you might as well just revert to home schooling as the norm. At least it would be less disruptive for everyone.
Otherwise find a way to have much smaller 'bubbles' or just require more pupils showing symptoms before sending everyone home.1 -
Lib dems in doing something right shock
Over on the independent Ed Davey appeared to come out in support of the tory rebels wanting to clip the government's wings on COVID later this month.
Ed sees an opening here. And maybe he is correct.
5 -
You think there are still Lander to report, as of 6pm on a Sunday evening?LostPassword said:
All the way through this the German numbers are updated incrementally during the day, in the same way as the American ones, due to reporting of the different States/Lander - but people have taken the German figures as complete national figures and the US figures not. Another example of the general lack of interest in the European continent compared to the American.alex_ said:
The whole things absolute nonsense, if trying to use as a basis for comparison. Everyone does it differently, is testing different numbers and counting in different ways. I'm not even sure that Germany reports a national figure - its numbers change throughout the day. Case numbers are even worse than hospitalisations or deaths, and they are misleading enough.IanB2 said:
Astonishing that the Government ever thought that using figures like this were a basis for judgements on international travel.
I doubt it. But, anyhow, they are not going to turn three hundred into three thousand, are they?0 -
Neither do I!CorrectHorseBattery said:@Mexicanpete is a hoot, I have no idea what he's going on about most of the time but I laugh anyway
3 -
Just checking, does Hannan include countries in the EU as forming part of the "Free World"?Pulpstar said:
If Biden wins, the free world may find itself longing for a stronger Anglo-American allianceCorrectHorseBattery said:https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/09/20/trumps-flaws-many-better-britain-biden/
Daniel "ABSOLUTELY NOBODY IS THREATENING OUR PLACE IN THE SINGLE MARKET" Hannan
Ye Gods what an absolubtely parochial crock of shite take.0 -
If the sun rises, Daniel Hannan may find himself longing for a stronger Anglo-American alliancePulpstar said:
If Biden wins, the free world may find itself longing for a stronger Anglo-American allianceCorrectHorseBattery said:https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/09/20/trumps-flaws-many-better-britain-biden/
Daniel "ABSOLUTELY NOBODY IS THREATENING OUR PLACE IN THE SINGLE MARKET" Hannan
Ye Gods what an absolubtely parochial crock of shite take.2 -
It doesn't really matter. The point is that the Lander will all do their own reporting at their own time. Some daily, some weekly, some when they feel like it. Germany may not be about to report another 2,000 cases this evening, but equally it is unlikely that their daily case numbers have genuinely gone 2,000 (two days ago), 1,000 (yesterday), 360 (today)IanB2 said:
You think there are still Lander to report, as of 6pm on a Sunday evening?LostPassword said:
All the way through this the German numbers are updated incrementally during the day, in the same way as the American ones, due to reporting of the different States/Lander - but people have taken the German figures as complete national figures and the US figures not. Another example of the general lack of interest in the European continent compared to the American.alex_ said:
The whole things absolute nonsense, if trying to use as a basis for comparison. Everyone does it differently, is testing different numbers and counting in different ways. I'm not even sure that Germany reports a national figure - its numbers change throughout the day. Case numbers are even worse than hospitalisations or deaths, and they are misleading enough.IanB2 said:
Astonishing that the Government ever thought that using figures like this were a basis for judgements on international travel.
I doubt it. But, anyhow, they are not going to turn three hundred into three thousand, are they?0 -
BA have already said they aren't going ahead with those plans.CorrectHorseBattery said:
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-541765430 -
Probably not. In All Out War it's said that he had an epiphany when the president of Latvia (I think) visited Britain shortly after independence. Apparently he told our politicians that his country was more free than we were (referencing our EU membership).alex_ said:
Just checking, does Hannan include countries in the EU as forming part of the "Free World"?Pulpstar said:
If Biden wins, the free world may find itself longing for a stronger Anglo-American allianceCorrectHorseBattery said:https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/09/20/trumps-flaws-many-better-britain-biden/
Daniel "ABSOLUTELY NOBODY IS THREATENING OUR PLACE IN THE SINGLE MARKET" Hannan
Ye Gods what an absolubtely parochial crock of shite take.1 -
Ironically, Hannan's evident desire for political unity between English-speaking countries mirrors Putin's view of the world.tlg86 said:
Probably not. In All Out War it's said that he had an epiphany when the president of Latvia (I think) visited Britain shortly after independence. Apparently he told our politicians that his country was more free than we were (referencing our EU membership).alex_ said:
Just checking, does Hannan include countries in the EU as forming part of the "Free World"?Pulpstar said:
If Biden wins, the free world may find itself longing for a stronger Anglo-American allianceCorrectHorseBattery said:https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/09/20/trumps-flaws-many-better-britain-biden/
Daniel "ABSOLUTELY NOBODY IS THREATENING OUR PLACE IN THE SINGLE MARKET" Hannan
Ye Gods what an absolubtely parochial crock of shite take.2 -
Step in and do what? Nationalise them? Presumably she thinks the Government should also nationalise all other airlines which operate pay and conditions that are worse than BA?CorrectHorseBattery said:0 -
As an aside, if the state polling is as wrong as 2016, then Texas is a Democratic gain.
Back in 2016, only two reputable pollsters had eve of vote polls in Texas: Emerson had Trump +15 and Marist had him +9. We'll give that a lazy simple of average of Trump +12.
Actual result +9. So the Dems did three percent better than the polls in Texas.
This time around, Trump is up 1-2% in Texas.
Same error, and Texas flips.
Of course, I don't actually expect Texas to flip. But if you're going to apply state level polling error then you should do it consistently.4 -
They want to ban hire and refire. Please do read the article.alex_ said:
Step in and do what? Nationalise them? Presumably she thinks the Government should also nationalise all other airlines which operate pay and conditions that are worse than BA?CorrectHorseBattery said:0 -
Separately, if Trump wins this year, gets his Supreme Court pick, and gets Obamacare repealed, and overturns Roe vs Wade, then the 2022 midterms are going to be very interesting.
And by interesting, I mean monumentally bad for the Republican Party.2 -
Yes, i appreciate that's the first step. But once that option is removed from employers, even as a last resort, how do such standoffs get resolved?CorrectHorseBattery said:
They want to ban hire and refire. Please do read the article.alex_ said:
Step in and do what? Nationalise them? Presumably she thinks the Government should also nationalise all other airlines which operate pay and conditions that are worse than BA?CorrectHorseBattery said:0 -
Angela gets her excuses in.CorrectHorseBattery said:
" I flunked this week's PMQs, I lost my train of thought because Boris Johnson pulled out his todger, and it was this big!"1 -
While I am not current on the reporting structure in Germany, it appears from the data I have seen that they have a weekend effect. Just as nearly every country I have looked at on this topic has.IanB2 said:
You think there are still Lander to report, as of 6pm on a Sunday evening?LostPassword said:
All the way through this the German numbers are updated incrementally during the day, in the same way as the American ones, due to reporting of the different States/Lander - but people have taken the German figures as complete national figures and the US figures not. Another example of the general lack of interest in the European continent compared to the American.alex_ said:
The whole things absolute nonsense, if trying to use as a basis for comparison. Everyone does it differently, is testing different numbers and counting in different ways. I'm not even sure that Germany reports a national figure - its numbers change throughout the day. Case numbers are even worse than hospitalisations or deaths, and they are misleading enough.IanB2 said:
Astonishing that the Government ever thought that using figures like this were a basis for judgements on international travel.
I doubt it. But, anyhow, they are not going to turn three hundred into three thousand, are they?0 -
I hope you are right. I agree, there is a clear opening here. If LibDems don’t stand up for civil liberties what are we for?contrarian said:Lib dems in doing something right shock
Over on the independent Ed Davey appeared to come out in support of the tory rebels wanting to clip the government's wings on COVID later this month.
Ed sees an opening here. And maybe he is correct.1 -
That doesn't make it a good policy. Getting rid of fire and rehire just makes it fire and don't rehire.CorrectHorseBattery said:
They want to ban hire and refire. Please do read the article.alex_ said:
Step in and do what? Nationalise them? Presumably she thinks the Government should also nationalise all other airlines which operate pay and conditions that are worse than BA?CorrectHorseBattery said:2 -
Another day, another set of American polling to consider.
The only GE poll so far is from NBC/Wall Street Journal:
https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/7213809-200625-NBCWSJ-September-Poll.html
Biden leads 51-43 and there's been very little movement. Margin of Error is 3.1% from a 1000 vote sample. All Registered voters but doesn't tell us a lot else. Just worth noting the favourable view of Biden has ticked up a few points.
CBS News/YouGov have polled in Florida and Texas. Both have 48-46 results with Biden leading in the former and Trump in the latter.
https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/7213809-200625-NBCWSJ-September-Poll.html
Margin of Error 3.7 points on the Florida polling - can't see the Texas details but suspect something similar so both states very much up for grabs at this time and in terms of EC votes hard to overstate their significance for both candidates.
Montana is probably not viewed as so crucial but that hasn't stopped a NY Times/Siena poll:
https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/mt-crosstabs/4da3e297acefb561/full.pdf
625 voters sampled and a Margin of Error of 4.8% (5% refusing to state as well). Trump leads 49-42 in a state he won 56-36 last time so a swing of 6.5% to Biden, at the upper end of what we've been seeing in some of the solid Red states where the swings against Trump have been greater than those seen in the more marginal states.1 -
In various countries, such as France and Spain, they have such employment protections.MaxPB said:
That doesn't make it a good policy. Getting rid of fire and rehire just makes it fire and don't rehire.CorrectHorseBattery said:
They want to ban hire and refire. Please do read the article.alex_ said:
Step in and do what? Nationalise them? Presumably she thinks the Government should also nationalise all other airlines which operate pay and conditions that are worse than BA?CorrectHorseBattery said:
This has resulted in 2 tier employment - very secure jobs for those lucky enough to be *in* and conditions that make UK zero hours look like fun for those who are *out*1 -
And yet Latvia went on to join not only the EU but the Euro, so they couldn't have found the prospect of enslavement by Brussels that appalling.tlg86 said:
Probably not. In All Out War it's said that he had an epiphany when the president of Latvia (I think) visited Britain shortly after independence. Apparently he told our politicians that his country was more free than we were (referencing our EU membership).alex_ said:
Just checking, does Hannan include countries in the EU as forming part of the "Free World"?Pulpstar said:
If Biden wins, the free world may find itself longing for a stronger Anglo-American allianceCorrectHorseBattery said:https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/09/20/trumps-flaws-many-better-britain-biden/
Daniel "ABSOLUTELY NOBODY IS THREATENING OUR PLACE IN THE SINGLE MARKET" Hannan
Ye Gods what an absolubtely parochial crock of shite take.0 -
I think it should be possible to stand up for the principle of proper parliamentary scrutiny and consent, even if not necessarily opposed to what the Government is doing?Stocky said:
I hope you are right. I agree, there is a clear opening here. If LibDems don’t stand up for civil liberties what are we for?contrarian said:Lib dems in doing something right shock
Over on the independent Ed Davey appeared to come out in support of the tory rebels wanting to clip the government's wings on COVID later this month.
Ed sees an opening here. And maybe he is correct.
This crisis has been going on for six months. There is not just significant levels of opposition to measures that the Government has taken (on both sides - both in closing down the economy/restricting civil liberties AND on "opening up" economic activity too precipitiously) but also total confusion about what underlying Government policy/strategy underpinning these measures is. Flatten the curve? Buy time for a vaccine? Elimination? etc etc
How much of this has actually been subject to proper Parliamentary democratic scrutiny?0 -
Then she puts for finger and thumb an eighth of an inch apart and says, ‘Now Cummings, on the other hand...’Mexicanpete said:
Angela gets her excuses in.CorrectHorseBattery said:
" I flunked this week's PMQs, I lost my train of thought because Boris Johnson pulled out his todger, and it was this big!"1 -
They sold out!OnlyLivingBoy said:
And yet Latvia went on to join not only the EU but the Euro, so they couldn't have found the prospect of enslavement by Brussels that appalling.tlg86 said:
Probably not. In All Out War it's said that he had an epiphany when the president of Latvia (I think) visited Britain shortly after independence. Apparently he told our politicians that his country was more free than we were (referencing our EU membership).alex_ said:
Just checking, does Hannan include countries in the EU as forming part of the "Free World"?Pulpstar said:
If Biden wins, the free world may find itself longing for a stronger Anglo-American allianceCorrectHorseBattery said:https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/09/20/trumps-flaws-many-better-britain-biden/
Daniel "ABSOLUTELY NOBODY IS THREATENING OUR PLACE IN THE SINGLE MARKET" Hannan
Ye Gods what an absolubtely parochial crock of shite take.0 -
Warning signs flash for Lindsey Graham in South Carolina
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/517144-warning-signs-flash-for-lindsey-graham-in-south-carolina0 -
UK cases by specimen date and scaled to 100k population
Spot the comedy in the Scottish data.....
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Exactly but also business bankrucy in many casesMaxPB said:
That doesn't make it a good policy. Getting rid of fire and rehire just makes it fire and don't rehire.CorrectHorseBattery said:
They want to ban hire and refire. Please do read the article.alex_ said:
Step in and do what? Nationalise them? Presumably she thinks the Government should also nationalise all other airlines which operate pay and conditions that are worse than BA?CorrectHorseBattery said:0 -
UK cases by specimen date
Spot the comedy in the Scottish data.....
0 -
That would be a really nice bonus!Nigelb said:Warning signs flash for Lindsey Graham in South Carolina
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/517144-warning-signs-flash-for-lindsey-graham-in-south-carolina1 -
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UK Cases summary
0 -
I saw the picture, and that is what it said to me. Paging Sigmund Freud!ydoethur said:
Then she puts for finger and thumb an eighth of an inch apart and says, ‘Now Cummings, on the other hand...’Mexicanpete said:
Angela gets her excuses in.CorrectHorseBattery said:
" I flunked this week's PMQs, I lost my train of thought because Boris Johnson pulled out his todger, and it was this big!"0 -
UK Deaths
0 -
In large organisations you also often get a situation where there are several employment contracts in simultaneous operation. This often happens in the public sector. This is OK when differences in terms and conditions are relatively minor (eg. a couple of days less holiday or something) but as the differences start to grow significantly then also create stagnation. Staff will know that they are protected as long as they stay in their current role. Seek new roles/opportunities/promotions in the organisation and they will find they have to also give up their existing terms and conditions.Malmesbury said:
In various countries, such as France and Spain, they have such employment protections.MaxPB said:
That doesn't make it a good policy. Getting rid of fire and rehire just makes it fire and don't rehire.CorrectHorseBattery said:
They want to ban hire and refire. Please do read the article.alex_ said:
Step in and do what? Nationalise them? Presumably she thinks the Government should also nationalise all other airlines which operate pay and conditions that are worse than BA?CorrectHorseBattery said:
This has resulted in 2 tier employment - very secure jobs for those lucky enough to be *in* and conditions that make UK zero hours look like fun for those who are *out*1 -
UK hospitals
0 -
"Were you up for Graham?"Mexicanpete said:
That would be a really nice bonus!Nigelb said:Warning signs flash for Lindsey Graham in South Carolina
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/517144-warning-signs-flash-for-lindsey-graham-in-south-carolina0 -
I might be in for Harrison now, didn't see LG in trouble at all in SC.kinabalu said:
"Were you up for Graham?"Mexicanpete said:
That would be a really nice bonus!Nigelb said:Warning signs flash for Lindsey Graham in South Carolina
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/517144-warning-signs-flash-for-lindsey-graham-in-south-carolina1 -
There is a reason why there was (up until COVID) a flood of young people from France and Spain coming to the UK. It was next to impossible to get on the "good" job ladders there.alex_ said:
In large organisations you also often get a situation where there are several employment contracts in simultaneous operation. This often happens in the public sector. This is OK when differences in terms and conditions are relatively minor (eg. a couple of days less holiday or something) but as the differences start to grow significantly then also create stagnation. Staff will know that they are protected as long as they stay in their current role. Seek new roles/opportunities/promotions in the organisation and they will find they have to also give up their existing terms and conditions.Malmesbury said:
In various countries, such as France and Spain, they have such employment protections.MaxPB said:
That doesn't make it a good policy. Getting rid of fire and rehire just makes it fire and don't rehire.CorrectHorseBattery said:
They want to ban hire and refire. Please do read the article.alex_ said:
Step in and do what? Nationalise them? Presumably she thinks the Government should also nationalise all other airlines which operate pay and conditions that are worse than BA?CorrectHorseBattery said:
This has resulted in 2 tier employment - very secure jobs for those lucky enough to be *in* and conditions that make UK zero hours look like fun for those who are *out*
1 -
@Malmesbury how far back do we have to go until the data is "complete". Wondering how significant the lack of exponential increase is.0
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I think this is the last time Kepa plays for Chelsea.0
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The actual current Senate rules on SC nominations.
https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/can-trump-and-mcconnell-push-through-a-successor-to-ruth-bader-ginsburg
... Democrats have few procedural tools at their disposal to delay the process. Specifically, under the Senate’s rules, the opposition party has the right to delay a vote in the Judiciary Committee for a week; and it has the right to insist on at least thirty hours of debate on the Senate floor before cloture—that is, a final move to a vote....
It’s theoretically possible for McConnell to change the rules to do it faster, but I think that unlikely - not because of any great principle (he has none, other than the exercise of power), but simply because he’d have little to gain in doing so, and would bear the risk of another close vote.0 -
Most expensive goalkeeper at 71 milliontlg86 said:I think this is the last time Kepa plays for Chelsea.
0 -
3-5 days.RobD said:@Malmesbury how far back do we have to go until the data is "complete". Wondering how significant the lack of exponential increase is.
Note that testing has max'd out. Which in turn means that tests are being rationed and targeted towards the symptomatic. Using the case numbers to tell you anything about the progress of the epidemic is not going to work.
Give me five minutes......
0 -
More curious about the positivity data actually. Very noisy though.Malmesbury said:
3-5 days.RobD said:@Malmesbury how far back do we have to go until the data is "complete". Wondering how significant the lack of exponential increase is.
Note that testing has max'd out. Which in turn means that tests are being rationed and targeted towards the symptomatic. Using the case numbers to tell you anything about the progress of the epidemic is not going to work.
Give me five minutes......0 -
I don't think that they can target the symptomatic. To book a test is a self declaration. There is no other screening, more first come first served.Malmesbury said:
3-5 days.RobD said:@Malmesbury how far back do we have to go until the data is "complete". Wondering how significant the lack of exponential increase is.
Note that testing has max'd out. Which in turn means that tests are being rationed and targeted towards the symptomatic. Using the case numbers to tell you anything about the progress of the epidemic is not going to work.
Give me five minutes......
2 -
I don't want to pile onto him but when Karius had his meltdown at least he had the excuse of concussion.tlg86 said:I think this is the last time Kepa plays for Chelsea.
0 -
The real measure of what is going on is the ONS incidence surveyMalmesbury said:
3-5 days.RobD said:@Malmesbury how far back do we have to go until the data is "complete". Wondering how significant the lack of exponential increase is.
Note that testing has max'd out. Which in turn means that tests are being rationed and targeted towards the symptomatic. Using the case numbers to tell you anything about the progress of the epidemic is not going to work.
Give me five minutes......
This graph shows the estimated infections per day in England
This graph shows the estimate of the percentage of the infections the testing is finding
This data is up to the 10th September....0 -
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I understand that various areas - hospitals, schools, care homes, hotspot testing etc are being prioritised ahead of book-it-yourself testing. Which is why the tests booked online are running out/offering tests miles away.Foxy said:
I don't think that they can target the symptomatic. To book a test is a self declaration. There is no other screening, more first come first served.Malmesbury said:
3-5 days.RobD said:@Malmesbury how far back do we have to go until the data is "complete". Wondering how significant the lack of exponential increase is.
Note that testing has max'd out. Which in turn means that tests are being rationed and targeted towards the symptomatic. Using the case numbers to tell you anything about the progress of the epidemic is not going to work.
Give me five minutes......
The former kinds of testing tend to be *inclined* to be where there is more evidence of COVID.0 -
So all away victories in the EPL today. Let;s hope that comtinues this evening0
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This seems to happen when teams are playing LiverpoolTheScreamingEagles said:
I don't want to pile onto him but when Karius had his meltdown at least he had the excuse of concussion.tlg86 said:I think this is the last time Kepa plays for Chelsea.
2 -
So you get fire instead. Great progress!CorrectHorseBattery said:
They want to ban hire and refire. Please do read the article.alex_ said:
Step in and do what? Nationalise them? Presumably she thinks the Government should also nationalise all other airlines which operate pay and conditions that are worse than BA?CorrectHorseBattery said:0 -
Considering Leicester/Oadby are supposed hotspots, the difficulties booking tests locally (Ebbw Vale when I last checked) I don't think so.Malmesbury said:
I understand that various areas - hospitals, schools, care homes, hotspot testing etc are being prioritised ahead of book-it-yourself testing. Which is why the tests booked online are running out/offering tests miles away.Foxy said:
I don't think that they can target the symptomatic. To book a test is a self declaration. There is no other screening, more first come first served.Malmesbury said:
3-5 days.RobD said:@Malmesbury how far back do we have to go until the data is "complete". Wondering how significant the lack of exponential increase is.
Note that testing has max'd out. Which in turn means that tests are being rationed and targeted towards the symptomatic. Using the case numbers to tell you anything about the progress of the epidemic is not going to work.
Give me five minutes......
The former kinds of testing tend to be *inclined* to be where there is more evidence of COVID.0 -
Just read PJ O’Rourke’s piece in the ST. Not quite as funny as he used to be. But he makes some good points. Firstly, Biden has no idea why Trump was elected in the first place.
Trump, inevitably, is on to this: “If things were so great in 2016 I wouldn’t be here.”
He concludes with: “So how’”, I asked, “did sending a lunatic to Washington fix this?”
He laughed. “It’s what they’ve got coming.”
“And maybe, alas , it still is.”
As he describes it America is torn between those that think government is the solution and those who think that it’s the problem.
Biden is clearly in the first camp. Trump supporters are in the second. Maybe they don’t blame him for administrative chaos because they never expect anything else. And they have a point.0 -
Welcome back @Foxy0
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By hotspot testing, I meant the organised testing - such as the door to door efforts.Foxy said:
Considering Leicester/Oadby are supposed hotspots, the difficulties booking tests locally (Ebbw Vale when I last checked) I don't think so.Malmesbury said:
I understand that various areas - hospitals, schools, care homes, hotspot testing etc are being prioritised ahead of book-it-yourself testing. Which is why the tests booked online are running out/offering tests miles away.Foxy said:
I don't think that they can target the symptomatic. To book a test is a self declaration. There is no other screening, more first come first served.Malmesbury said:
3-5 days.RobD said:@Malmesbury how far back do we have to go until the data is "complete". Wondering how significant the lack of exponential increase is.
Note that testing has max'd out. Which in turn means that tests are being rationed and targeted towards the symptomatic. Using the case numbers to tell you anything about the progress of the epidemic is not going to work.
Give me five minutes......
The former kinds of testing tend to be *inclined* to be where there is more evidence of COVID.0 -
I thought Man U had a very valid point about it being too soon to start the EPL season and they stood up for their principles yesterday.MikeSmithson said:
This seems to happen when teams are playing LiverpoolTheScreamingEagles said:
I don't want to pile onto him but when Karius had his meltdown at least he had the excuse of concussion.tlg86 said:I think this is the last time Kepa plays for Chelsea.
2 -
The example he gives - of the gas station guy who can't dig up and replace tanks because he can't get permits from 8 levels of the system - is an example of one of the biggest problems in the US. A mad system of regulation that fights itself interspersed with no regulation at all.....DavidL said:Just read PJ O’Rourke’s piece in the ST. Not quite as funny as he used to be. But he makes some good points. Firstly, Biden has no idea why Trump was elected in the first place.
Trump, inevitably, is on to this: “If things were so great in 2016 I wouldn’t be here.”
He concludes with: “So how’”, I asked, “did sending a lunatic to Washington fix this?”
He laughed. “It’s what they’ve got coming.”
“And maybe, alas , it still is.”
As he describes it America is torn between those that think government is the solution and those who think that it’s the problem.
Biden is clearly in the first camp. Trump supporters are in the second. Maybe they don’t blame him for administrative chaos because they never expect anything else. And they have a point.
A friend was involved in a FinTech that wanted to move into the US market - debit only cards, no fees, no lending, online banking. A VISA card for the poorest, just as much as the richest. Blocked - not by the existing banks, but by various interests at the "Community Organiser" level.
Another example - in LA, a dry cleaner sold his business to Elon Musk's Boring Company, to build an entrance to a tunnel. Months later, he hadn't been able to start his business at the new location - it was a dry cleaners. Why? Well, the city council hadn't given him the permit to open a dry cleaners there yet - despite it being zoned as light industrial....
In many ways, the UK is far less obsessed with pointless must-have-a-permit-to-open-a-hair-dressers nonsense.2 -
Had I been away? 🤔CorrectHorseBattery said:Welcome back @Foxy
0 -
The autonomous communities with the highest cumulative incidence of COVID-19 in Spain are: Madrid, with 322 positives per 100,000 inhabitants; Navarra, with 300, and La Rioja, with 252. The other side is the Valencian Community, which has an accumulated incidence of 44. If we analyze the trend in the last two weeks, Melilla is the territory that has improved the most, since it has reduced this indicator by 88 points.0
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Serious increases reported by the app over the past week (for what it is worth).
https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1307711942673534977?s=190 -
1345 for Germany on Sunday according to RKI.0
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I also liked the bit about Russian involvement in the 2016 election...”I‘ve driven Russian cars.”Malmesbury said:
The example he gives - of the gas station guy who can't dig up and replace tanks because he can't get permits from 8 levels of the system - is an example of one of the biggest problems in the US. A mad system of regulation that fights itself interspersed with no regulation at all.....DavidL said:Just read PJ O’Rourke’s piece in the ST. Not quite as funny as he used to be. But he makes some good points. Firstly, Biden has no idea why Trump was elected in the first place.
Trump, inevitably, is on to this: “If things were so great in 2016 I wouldn’t be here.”
He concludes with: “So how’”, I asked, “did sending a lunatic to Washington fix this?”
He laughed. “It’s what they’ve got coming.”
“And maybe, alas , it still is.”
As he describes it America is torn between those that think government is the solution and those who think that it’s the problem.
Biden is clearly in the first camp. Trump supporters are in the second. Maybe they don’t blame him for administrative chaos because they never expect anything else. And they have a point.
A friend was involved in a FinTech that wanted to move into the US market - debit only cards, no fees, no lending, online banking. A VISA card for the poorest, just as much as the richest. Blocked - not by the existing banks, but by various interests at the "Community Organiser" level.
Another example - in LA, a dry cleaner sold his business to Elon Musk's Boring Company, to build an entrance to a tunnel. Months later, he hadn't been able to start his business at the new location - it was a dry cleaners. Why? Well, the city council hadn't given him the permit to open a dry cleaners there yet - despite it being zoned as light industrial....
In many ways, the UK is far less obsessed with pointless must-have-a-permit-to-open-a-hair-dressers nonsense.0 -
Won't most testing still be targetted at the regular testing of health service and care home workers?Malmesbury said:
3-5 days.RobD said:@Malmesbury how far back do we have to go until the data is "complete". Wondering how significant the lack of exponential increase is.
Note that testing has max'd out. Which in turn means that tests are being rationed and targeted towards the symptomatic. Using the case numbers to tell you anything about the progress of the epidemic is not going to work.
Give me five minutes......0 -
I hadn't said hello if you were, hope all wellFoxy said:
Had I been away? 🤔CorrectHorseBattery said:Welcome back @Foxy
0 -
Starmer wants to be PM. Starmer wants that on his own terms. That means Starmer is fighting for an outright victory (Labour clear of 325+ seats) in one go.
He knows he will only, at best, scrape a handful in Scotland. So, he's going to have to match a Blair 1997 or 2001 result (preferably the former) in England to do this.
Flag, forces, family is the kind of line he's going to have to take to do it.
It won't be called this, of course, but it will in effect be New New Labour (it will have to be) and it will differ in at least two important aspects: one, it won't be as pro-market and, two, it will not be as liberal on migration.
As it happens, I suspect Starmer *does* belief in all the usual North London soft-left tropes: Brexiters are racist, loves the EU, loves migration and migrant rights, and veganism is the way, but he's smart enough to bury it.
Such is his ambition.1
This discussion has been closed.