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This week’s most important polling analysis on the White House race – politicalbetting.com

245

Comments

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 33,033
    edited September 20

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:
    Some people are literally mad. But Bernard Jenkin is madder than Mad Jack McMad, winner of this year’s Mr Madman competition.
    What's wrong with what Jenkin said?
    When things are in chaos, the last thing you want to do is hand them over to somebody infamous for his disorganisation, laziness and inability to master basic details.

    Even assuming it is merely his advisers, not him, that are at the root of the problem.
  • IanB2 said:

    4422 new cases....

    Worldometer says 3899

    Germany 362
    Worldometer isn't accurate.
  • alex_ said:

    alex_ said:

    4422 new cases....

    Er, that was yesterday.
    That is what is says on the dashboard, updated today.

    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

    I believe yesterday was 4322. Today is 4422
    It says 3899?
    No, you are definitely looking at the wrong date. That is the 16th September.

    Look at Daily cases by date reported, Data tab, on this page,

    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases

    19-09-2020 4,422 390,358
    18-09-2020 4,322 385,936
    17-09-2020 3,395 381,614
    16-09-2020 3,991 378,219
    20-09-2020 3,899 394,254
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 51,410
    edited September 20

    alex_ said:

    alex_ said:

    4422 new cases....

    Er, that was yesterday.
    That is what is says on the dashboard, updated today.

    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

    I believe yesterday was 4322. Today is 4422
    It says 3899?
    No, you are definitely looking at the wrong date. That is the 16th September.

    Look at Daily cases by date reported, Data tab, on this page,

    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases

    19-09-2020 4,422 390,358
    18-09-2020 4,322 385,936
    17-09-2020 3,395 381,614
    16-09-2020 3,991 378,219
    20-09-2020 3,899 394,254
    My bad. My page said it had been updated, but it hadn't updated all the tabs...and I have lost track of the date.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 3,935

    alex_ said:

    alex_ said:

    4422 new cases....

    Er, that was yesterday.
    That is what is says on the dashboard, updated today.

    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

    I believe yesterday was 4322. Today is 4422
    It says 3899?
    No, you are definitely looking at the wrong date. That is the 16th September.

    Look at Daily cases by date reported, Data tab, on this page,

    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases

    19-09-2020 4,422 390,358
    18-09-2020 4,322 385,936
    17-09-2020 3,395 381,614
    16-09-2020 3,991 378,219
    Today is the 20th of September.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 15,779
    MrEd said:

    kinabalu said:

    stodge said:

    Afternoon again all :)

    I've been droning on for weeks about the margin of error and sample sizes in State polls but up pops some numpty in the New York Times and suddenly it's the most insightful analysis since a brave French Marshal opined to Napoleon at Waterloo that if the Prussians showed up in the evening it might get a little awkward.

    If you are going to (and I suspect many do this to support their own personal agenda while I can understand the more astute who do it to bolster their trading position) simply re-tweet headline numbers from some dime-a-call US pollster, at least have the decency to find out the margin of error so we all know when we can stop laughing.

    If you want almost any result from a Biden landslide to a Trump landslide, the polls will give it but as a rule of thumb I'd take any poll showing either candidate ahead by five points or less to be in the TCTC category.

    I'd also take a long hard look at sampling - what is the split between registered Democrats, Republicans and Independents? What is the ethnic split, the split by income?

    Too many pollsters (Rasmussen and Trafalgar in particular) either don't reveal the details of their sampling claiming it is "representative" or hide the details behind a paywall. What do they have to hide? Who are they sampling and in what way does that produce such different results from other pollsters?

    If I sampled 1500 voters in East Ham and published it as a national opinion poll, I'd be thrown off the British Polling Council and rightly so but we don't know to what extent the methodology and sampling effectively weaponises these polls to create numbers favourable to one side or the other.

    Good post. My take -

    Rasmussen and Trafalgar have made an assumption that there ARE lots of "shy Trumpsters" and they adjust their raw data accordingly, using sleight of hand such as "who do you think your neighbours are voting for?" type baloney. Their objective is to stand out from the crowd and cross their fingers that their core assumption - Trump will overperform in key states like last time - is correct. In which case they make themselves a big rep.

    The fact of the matter is that the comprehensive polling average (with them included) is a Biden lead of almost 7 points. The latest poll (today) is from NBC, an A rated pollster. Biden by 8. Same lead as a month ago with that pollster. Biden also has a solid lead in most of the battleground states and is within touching distance in several states which were clear wins for Trump in 2016 such as Texas, Ohio, and Georgia.

    Are the polls wrong? Yes, obviously. But it's unlikely they are all wrong and biased against Trump by several points unless their methodologies really are missing a chunk of Trump voters. And to the extent they are wrong it is just as likely they are wrong the other way. That they are understating Biden's lead. Indeed given that pollsters tend to over-correct for their latest high profile screw up, it is more likely that the error, if there is one and it's material, is in this direction.

    So, Biden leads by 7, his lead looks stable, his lead is at least as likely to be understated as overstated, there are very few undecideds, and the election is only 6 weeks away. He should be a 1/4 favourite and yet is only a shade of odds on. It's the betting opportunity of a lifetime and I have not hesitated in having the biggest spread bet of my life.

    Don't overthink it people. It's great fun to do that, but in this case don't. Commonsense and the evidence coincide, and the consequential and obvious conclusion is the right one. America has had enough of Donald Trump as their president, one term was quite sufficient, and they will be voting him out decisively on 3/11.
    "Are the polls wrong? Yes, obviously. But it's unlikely they are all wrong and biased against Trump by several points unless their methodologies really are missing a chunk of Trump voters."

    The problem is you don't need all the polls to be wrong, just some of them and you can get a monumental f*ck up and lose a huge amount, especially if you are spread betting.

    So, in Florida, if Trafalgar are right, Trump will win by +2 but, if Monmouth is correct, it will be +5 to Biden. In PA, Rasmussen has a tie, NBC has +9 Biden. In MI, you can either take your +2 for Trump with Trafalgar or your +8 for Biden with EPIC.

    And this isn't taking into account states where polling is poor and a Biden win SHOULD mean they are uncompetitive but where both campaigns' actions clearly suggest they see it will be tight. Minnesota and Nevada spring to mind.
    I'm not writing Trump off. He has a punchers chance. But the odds are imo very wrong - hence quite a big bet from me. It feels similar to our GE where there was imo clear value in the Con landslide. Difference in this case is I also want the outcome I'm backing. GE19 was a nice betting profit but otherwise a bad day. It's all or nothing this time, head and heart aligned.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 33,033
    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:
    Some people are literally mad. But Bernard Jenkin is madder than Mad Jack McMad, winner of this year’s Mr Madman competition.
    Yes, I knew him at university. He was an idiot even then. In his defence, his father was also an idiot, as well as Lord of my ward. Apparently.
    saving your presence, what is it with Cambridge English graduates? Him, Burgon, Gopal, my ex Principal, not one with two brain cells to rub together.
  • Has anybody had this issue before with the COVID dashboard? I am refreshing the page, it says it has been updated at the top, but it still only shows the data up to yesterday. I presume it is some sort of caching issue.
  • ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:
    Some people are literally mad. But Bernard Jenkin is madder than Mad Jack McMad, winner of this year’s Mr Madman competition.
    What's wrong with what Jenkin said?
    When things are in chaos, the last thing you want to do is hand them over to somebody infamous for his disorganisation, laziness and inability to master basic details.

    Even assuming it is merely his advisers, not him, that are at the root of the problem.
    He's suggesting handing it over to the military. Are the military famous for disorganisation, laziness and inability to master basic details?

    I'm not agreeing with him, but I don't understand your objection.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 86,990
    edited September 20

    Is there a worse TV football pundit than Ashley Cole? All that comes out of his mouth is his a whole host of random words that together make no sense.

    I raise you Jamie Redknapp.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 33,033

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:
    Some people are literally mad. But Bernard Jenkin is madder than Mad Jack McMad, winner of this year’s Mr Madman competition.
    What's wrong with what Jenkin said?
    When things are in chaos, the last thing you want to do is hand them over to somebody infamous for his disorganisation, laziness and inability to master basic details.

    Even assuming it is merely his advisers, not him, that are at the root of the problem.
    He's suggesting handing it over to the military. Are the military famous for disorganisation, laziness and inability to master basic details?

    I'm not agreeing with him, but I don't understand your objection.
    Well, truthfully, our military are. Anyone who has a passing grasp of defence procurement could tell you that.

    But the point is, Boris Johnson is either running things, or he isn’t. If he is, he cannot take control. If he isn’t, given his many shortcomings it is hard to see how he wouldn’t make things worse.
  • Has anybody had this issue before with the COVID dashboard? I am refreshing the page, it says it has been updated at the top, but it still only shows the data up to yesterday. I presume it is some sort of caching issue.

    Have you tried Ctrl+F5 ?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 51,410
    edited September 20

    Is there a worse TV football pundit than Ashley Cole? All that comes out of his mouth is his a whole host of random words that together make no sense.

    I raise you Jamie Redknapp.
    Nah. Redknapp ain't much good, but the words coming out of his mouth at least form a sentence that can be understood that he is trying to say something. Cole, it is like the worst of Boris, this bumbling nonsense that if you sit back and try to work out what his point was you still have no clue.

    As a newly subscribed member of the Athletic, it is a breath of fresh air to read / watch / hear some genuinely insightful analysis, rather than the utter bollocks provided by MOTD, BT and most of Sky.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 22,917

    alex_ said:

    4422 new cases....

    Er, that was yesterday.
    That is what is says on the dashboard, updated today.

    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

    I believe yesterday was 4322. Today is 4422
    3899
  • Has anybody had this issue before with the COVID dashboard? I am refreshing the page, it says it has been updated at the top, but it still only shows the data up to yesterday. I presume it is some sort of caching issue.

    Have you tried Ctrl+F5 ?
    Yeap, still stuck on yesterdays numbers.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 22,917

    Has anybody had this issue before with the COVID dashboard? I am refreshing the page, it says it has been updated at the top, but it still only shows the data up to yesterday. I presume it is some sort of caching issue.

    Have you tried Ctrl+F5 ?
    Yeap, still stuck on yesterdays numbers.
    Clear your cache.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 2,221
    alex_ said:

    IanB2 said:

    4422 new cases....

    Worldometer says 3899

    Germany 362
    The whole things absolute nonsense, if trying to use as a basis for comparison. Everyone does it differently, is testing different numbers and counting in different ways. I'm not even sure that Germany reports a national figure - its numbers change throughout the day. Case numbers are even worse than hospitalisations or deaths, and they are misleading enough.

    Astonishing that the Government ever thought that using figures like this were a basis for judgements on international travel.
    All the way through this the German numbers are updated incrementally during the day, in the same way as the American ones, due to reporting of the different States/Lander - but people have taken the German figures as complete national figures and the US figures not. Another example of the general lack of interest in the European continent compared to the American.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 7,819

    Scott_xP said:
    Fantasic trolling by Boris....
    True, but err...I think he just trolled himself though!
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 3,935

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:
    Some people are literally mad. But Bernard Jenkin is madder than Mad Jack McMad, winner of this year’s Mr Madman competition.
    What's wrong with what Jenkin said?
    When things are in chaos, the last thing you want to do is hand them over to somebody infamous for his disorganisation, laziness and inability to master basic details.

    Even assuming it is merely his advisers, not him, that are at the root of the problem.
    He's suggesting handing it over to the military. Are the military famous for disorganisation, laziness and inability to master basic details?

    I'm not agreeing with him, but I don't understand your objection.
    It seems to me that the issues around testing are not purely logistical. They involve imbalance of surplus and demand due to
    - a failure to lay a clearer framework for who should and should not be getting tests,
    - that matches up well with available capacity,
    - a failure to clearly communicate that framework so that only people who should be seeking tests, are,
    - enforcement of this in a way which aligns well with general government guidance and the extent to which testing
    is expected to fit in to the risk management of the delivery of public services and the maintenance of a
    functioning wider economy
    - and on the supply side bottlenecks in lab analysis due to shortage of people to process test results

    Simply focussing endlessly on the basic ability of the public and others to actually receive a test will not solve anything until these other areas are addressed. And i don't see how the military will help with any of them. And Starmer's criticism on this is just as poor as anyone else's.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 3,935
    edited September 20

    Has anybody had this issue before with the COVID dashboard? I am refreshing the page, it says it has been updated at the top, but it still only shows the data up to yesterday. I presume it is some sort of caching issue.

    Have you tried Ctrl+F5 ?
    Yeap, still stuck on yesterdays numbers.
    Simple solution is to look at Worldometer ;)

    Useless as a basis of comparison (although we have little else, if that is your thing). But they usually report the UK figures "correctly"!
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 5,804

    Is there a worse TV football pundit than Ashley Cole? All that comes out of his mouth is his a whole host of random words that together make no sense.

    I raise you Jamie Redknapp.
    Nah. Redknapp ain't much good, but the words coming out of his mouth at least form a sentence that can be understood that he is trying to say something. Cole, it is like the worst of Boris, this bumbling nonsense that if you sit back and try to work out what his point was you still have no clue.

    As a newly subscribed member of the Athletic, it is a breath of fresh air to read / watch / hear some genuinely insightful analysis, rather than the utter bollocks provided by MOTD, BT and most of Sky.
    Agreed. Cole is unwatchable - adds no value whatsoever. Redknapp is fairly poor, but is just about bearable.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 62,693

    I presume this Sleepy Joe needs drugs to function is out of the same playbook used to question Hillary's health.

    Hidin' Biden hasn't collapsed in front of a taxi yet.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 1,684
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:
    Some people are literally mad. But Bernard Jenkin is madder than Mad Jack McMad, winner of this year’s Mr Madman competition.
    What's wrong with what Jenkin said?
    When things are in chaos, the last thing you want to do is hand them over to somebody infamous for his disorganisation, laziness and inability to master basic details.

    Even assuming it is merely his advisers, not him, that are at the root of the problem.
    He's suggesting handing it over to the military. Are the military famous for disorganisation, laziness and inability to master basic details?

    I'm not agreeing with him, but I don't understand your objection.
    Well, truthfully, our military are. Anyone who has a passing grasp of defence procurement could tell you that.

    But the point is, Boris Johnson is either running things, or he isn’t. If he is, he cannot take control. If he isn’t, given his many shortcomings it is hard to see how he wouldn’t make things worse.
    TBF to the armed forces here isn't defence procurement down to the ministry of defence which is civil servants. I am under the impression the armed forces themselves aren't so bad


  • Praising New Labour, Angela has been cancelled
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 51,410
    edited September 20

    Is there a worse TV football pundit than Ashley Cole? All that comes out of his mouth is his a whole host of random words that together make no sense.

    I raise you Jamie Redknapp.
    Nah. Redknapp ain't much good, but the words coming out of his mouth at least form a sentence that can be understood that he is trying to say something. Cole, it is like the worst of Boris, this bumbling nonsense that if you sit back and try to work out what his point was you still have no clue.

    As a newly subscribed member of the Athletic, it is a breath of fresh air to read / watch / hear some genuinely insightful analysis, rather than the utter bollocks provided by MOTD, BT and most of Sky.
    Agreed. Cole is unwatchable - adds no value whatsoever. Redknapp is fairly poor, but is just about bearable.
    When he did the England game the other week with Alex Scott, it was embarrassing the gulf between him and Alex (who IMO gave reasonable if not earth shattering insight).
  • https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/09/20/trumps-flaws-many-better-britain-biden/

    Daniel "ABSOLUTELY NOBODY IS THREATENING OUR PLACE IN THE SINGLE MARKET" Hannan
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 62,693

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/09/20/trumps-flaws-many-better-britain-biden/

    Daniel "ABSOLUTELY NOBODY IS THREATENING OUR PLACE IN THE SINGLE MARKET" Hannan

    If Biden wins, the free world may find itself longing for a stronger Anglo-American alliance

    Ye Gods what an absolubtely parochial crock of shite take.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 7,819

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:
    Some people are literally mad. But Bernard Jenkin is madder than Mad Jack McMad, winner of this year’s Mr Madman competition.
    What's wrong with what Jenkin said?
    When things are in chaos, the last thing you want to do is hand them over to somebody infamous for his disorganisation, laziness and inability to master basic details.

    Even assuming it is merely his advisers, not him, that are at the root of the problem.
    He's suggesting handing it over to the military. Are the military famous for disorganisation, laziness and inability to master basic details?

    I'm not agreeing with him, but I don't understand your objection.
    F*** me, martial law! Time to put Boris in one of Idi Amin's old uniforms to gain a bit of gravitas.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 62,693

    Scott_xP said:
    Fantasic trolling by Boris....
    True, but err...I think he just trolled himself though!
    Whoever decides the readings has top trolled Bojo.
  • @Mexicanpete is a hoot, I have no idea what he's going on about most of the time but I laugh anyway
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 3,935
    Re: testing - number one priority tell schools to stop sending pupils home at the merest sight of a snivel, and actually focus on real identifiable Covid symptoms. And i struggle fundamentally to understand a process which involves sending entire year groups of several hundred pupils home on the back of single positive test results. Given that anyway for every child with genuine symptoms and testing positive in a year group of several hundred, it would be astonishing if there weren't several other asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic cases, given what we know of the virus.

    So you might as well just revert to home schooling as the norm. At least it would be less disruptive for everyone.

    Otherwise find a way to have much smaller 'bubbles' or just require more pupils showing symptoms before sending everyone home.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 30,035

    alex_ said:

    IanB2 said:

    4422 new cases....

    Worldometer says 3899

    Germany 362
    The whole things absolute nonsense, if trying to use as a basis for comparison. Everyone does it differently, is testing different numbers and counting in different ways. I'm not even sure that Germany reports a national figure - its numbers change throughout the day. Case numbers are even worse than hospitalisations or deaths, and they are misleading enough.

    Astonishing that the Government ever thought that using figures like this were a basis for judgements on international travel.
    All the way through this the German numbers are updated incrementally during the day, in the same way as the American ones, due to reporting of the different States/Lander - but people have taken the German figures as complete national figures and the US figures not. Another example of the general lack of interest in the European continent compared to the American.
    You think there are still Lander to report, as of 6pm on a Sunday evening?

    I doubt it. But, anyhow, they are not going to turn three hundred into three thousand, are they?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 7,819

    @Mexicanpete is a hoot, I have no idea what he's going on about most of the time but I laugh anyway

    Neither do I!
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 3,935
    Pulpstar said:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/09/20/trumps-flaws-many-better-britain-biden/

    Daniel "ABSOLUTELY NOBODY IS THREATENING OUR PLACE IN THE SINGLE MARKET" Hannan

    If Biden wins, the free world may find itself longing for a stronger Anglo-American alliance

    Ye Gods what an absolubtely parochial crock of shite take.
    Just checking, does Hannan include countries in the EU as forming part of the "Free World"?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 35,152
    edited September 20
    Pulpstar said:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/09/20/trumps-flaws-many-better-britain-biden/

    Daniel "ABSOLUTELY NOBODY IS THREATENING OUR PLACE IN THE SINGLE MARKET" Hannan

    If Biden wins, the free world may find itself longing for a stronger Anglo-American alliance

    Ye Gods what an absolubtely parochial crock of shite take.
    If the sun rises, Daniel Hannan may find himself longing for a stronger Anglo-American alliance
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 3,935
    IanB2 said:

    alex_ said:

    IanB2 said:

    4422 new cases....

    Worldometer says 3899

    Germany 362
    The whole things absolute nonsense, if trying to use as a basis for comparison. Everyone does it differently, is testing different numbers and counting in different ways. I'm not even sure that Germany reports a national figure - its numbers change throughout the day. Case numbers are even worse than hospitalisations or deaths, and they are misleading enough.

    Astonishing that the Government ever thought that using figures like this were a basis for judgements on international travel.
    All the way through this the German numbers are updated incrementally during the day, in the same way as the American ones, due to reporting of the different States/Lander - but people have taken the German figures as complete national figures and the US figures not. Another example of the general lack of interest in the European continent compared to the American.
    You think there are still Lander to report, as of 6pm on a Sunday evening?

    I doubt it. But, anyhow, they are not going to turn three hundred into three thousand, are they?
    It doesn't really matter. The point is that the Lander will all do their own reporting at their own time. Some daily, some weekly, some when they feel like it. Germany may not be about to report another 2,000 cases this evening, but equally it is unlikely that their daily case numbers have genuinely gone 2,000 (two days ago), 1,000 (yesterday), 360 (today)
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 15,384
    alex_ said:

    Pulpstar said:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/09/20/trumps-flaws-many-better-britain-biden/

    Daniel "ABSOLUTELY NOBODY IS THREATENING OUR PLACE IN THE SINGLE MARKET" Hannan

    If Biden wins, the free world may find itself longing for a stronger Anglo-American alliance

    Ye Gods what an absolubtely parochial crock of shite take.
    Just checking, does Hannan include countries in the EU as forming part of the "Free World"?
    Probably not. In All Out War it's said that he had an epiphany when the president of Latvia (I think) visited Britain shortly after independence. Apparently he told our politicians that his country was more free than we were (referencing our EU membership).
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 35,152
    tlg86 said:

    alex_ said:

    Pulpstar said:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/09/20/trumps-flaws-many-better-britain-biden/

    Daniel "ABSOLUTELY NOBODY IS THREATENING OUR PLACE IN THE SINGLE MARKET" Hannan

    If Biden wins, the free world may find itself longing for a stronger Anglo-American alliance

    Ye Gods what an absolubtely parochial crock of shite take.
    Just checking, does Hannan include countries in the EU as forming part of the "Free World"?
    Probably not. In All Out War it's said that he had an epiphany when the president of Latvia (I think) visited Britain shortly after independence. Apparently he told our politicians that his country was more free than we were (referencing our EU membership).
    Ironically, Hannan's evident desire for political unity between English-speaking countries mirrors Putin's view of the world.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 3,935
    Step in and do what? Nationalise them? Presumably she thinks the Government should also nationalise all other airlines which operate pay and conditions that are worse than BA?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 34,095
    As an aside, if the state polling is as wrong as 2016, then Texas is a Democratic gain.

    Back in 2016, only two reputable pollsters had eve of vote polls in Texas: Emerson had Trump +15 and Marist had him +9. We'll give that a lazy simple of average of Trump +12.

    Actual result +9. So the Dems did three percent better than the polls in Texas.

    This time around, Trump is up 1-2% in Texas.

    Same error, and Texas flips.

    Of course, I don't actually expect Texas to flip. But if you're going to apply state level polling error then you should do it consistently.
  • alex_ said:

    Step in and do what? Nationalise them? Presumably she thinks the Government should also nationalise all other airlines which operate pay and conditions that are worse than BA?
    They want to ban hire and refire. Please do read the article.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 34,095
    edited September 20
    Separately, if Trump wins this year, gets his Supreme Court pick, and gets Obamacare repealed, and overturns Roe vs Wade, then the 2022 midterms are going to be very interesting.

    And by interesting, I mean monumentally bad for the Republican Party.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 3,935

    alex_ said:

    Step in and do what? Nationalise them? Presumably she thinks the Government should also nationalise all other airlines which operate pay and conditions that are worse than BA?
    They want to ban hire and refire. Please do read the article.
    Yes, i appreciate that's the first step. But once that option is removed from employers, even as a last resort, how do such standoffs get resolved?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 7,819
    edited September 20
    Angela gets her excuses in.

    " I flunked this week's PMQs, I lost my train of thought because Boris Johnson pulled out his todger, and it was this big!"
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 8,771
    IanB2 said:

    alex_ said:

    IanB2 said:

    4422 new cases....

    Worldometer says 3899

    Germany 362
    The whole things absolute nonsense, if trying to use as a basis for comparison. Everyone does it differently, is testing different numbers and counting in different ways. I'm not even sure that Germany reports a national figure - its numbers change throughout the day. Case numbers are even worse than hospitalisations or deaths, and they are misleading enough.

    Astonishing that the Government ever thought that using figures like this were a basis for judgements on international travel.
    All the way through this the German numbers are updated incrementally during the day, in the same way as the American ones, due to reporting of the different States/Lander - but people have taken the German figures as complete national figures and the US figures not. Another example of the general lack of interest in the European continent compared to the American.
    You think there are still Lander to report, as of 6pm on a Sunday evening?

    I doubt it. But, anyhow, they are not going to turn three hundred into three thousand, are they?
    While I am not current on the reporting structure in Germany, it appears from the data I have seen that they have a weekend effect. Just as nearly every country I have looked at on this topic has.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 4,257

    Lib dems in doing something right shock

    Over on the independent Ed Davey appeared to come out in support of the tory rebels wanting to clip the government's wings on COVID later this month.

    Ed sees an opening here. And maybe he is correct.

    I hope you are right. I agree, there is a clear opening here. If LibDems don’t stand up for civil liberties what are we for?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 22,917

    alex_ said:

    Step in and do what? Nationalise them? Presumably she thinks the Government should also nationalise all other airlines which operate pay and conditions that are worse than BA?
    They want to ban hire and refire. Please do read the article.
    That doesn't make it a good policy. Getting rid of fire and rehire just makes it fire and don't rehire.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 7,652
    Another day, another set of American polling to consider.

    The only GE poll so far is from NBC/Wall Street Journal:

    https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/7213809-200625-NBCWSJ-September-Poll.html

    Biden leads 51-43 and there's been very little movement. Margin of Error is 3.1% from a 1000 vote sample. All Registered voters but doesn't tell us a lot else. Just worth noting the favourable view of Biden has ticked up a few points.

    CBS News/YouGov have polled in Florida and Texas. Both have 48-46 results with Biden leading in the former and Trump in the latter.

    https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/7213809-200625-NBCWSJ-September-Poll.html

    Margin of Error 3.7 points on the Florida polling - can't see the Texas details but suspect something similar so both states very much up for grabs at this time and in terms of EC votes hard to overstate their significance for both candidates.

    Montana is probably not viewed as so crucial but that hasn't stopped a NY Times/Siena poll:

    https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/mt-crosstabs/4da3e297acefb561/full.pdf

    625 voters sampled and a Margin of Error of 4.8% (5% refusing to state as well). Trump leads 49-42 in a state he won 56-36 last time so a swing of 6.5% to Biden, at the upper end of what we've been seeing in some of the solid Red states where the swings against Trump have been greater than those seen in the more marginal states.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 8,771
    MaxPB said:

    alex_ said:

    Step in and do what? Nationalise them? Presumably she thinks the Government should also nationalise all other airlines which operate pay and conditions that are worse than BA?
    They want to ban hire and refire. Please do read the article.
    That doesn't make it a good policy. Getting rid of fire and rehire just makes it fire and don't rehire.
    In various countries, such as France and Spain, they have such employment protections.

    This has resulted in 2 tier employment - very secure jobs for those lucky enough to be *in* and conditions that make UK zero hours look like fun for those who are *out*
  • tlg86 said:

    alex_ said:

    Pulpstar said:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/09/20/trumps-flaws-many-better-britain-biden/

    Daniel "ABSOLUTELY NOBODY IS THREATENING OUR PLACE IN THE SINGLE MARKET" Hannan

    If Biden wins, the free world may find itself longing for a stronger Anglo-American alliance

    Ye Gods what an absolubtely parochial crock of shite take.
    Just checking, does Hannan include countries in the EU as forming part of the "Free World"?
    Probably not. In All Out War it's said that he had an epiphany when the president of Latvia (I think) visited Britain shortly after independence. Apparently he told our politicians that his country was more free than we were (referencing our EU membership).
    And yet Latvia went on to join not only the EU but the Euro, so they couldn't have found the prospect of enslavement by Brussels that appalling.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 3,935
    Stocky said:

    Lib dems in doing something right shock

    Over on the independent Ed Davey appeared to come out in support of the tory rebels wanting to clip the government's wings on COVID later this month.

    Ed sees an opening here. And maybe he is correct.

    I hope you are right. I agree, there is a clear opening here. If LibDems don’t stand up for civil liberties what are we for?
    I think it should be possible to stand up for the principle of proper parliamentary scrutiny and consent, even if not necessarily opposed to what the Government is doing?

    This crisis has been going on for six months. There is not just significant levels of opposition to measures that the Government has taken (on both sides - both in closing down the economy/restricting civil liberties AND on "opening up" economic activity too precipitiously) but also total confusion about what underlying Government policy/strategy underpinning these measures is. Flatten the curve? Buy time for a vaccine? Elimination? etc etc

    How much of this has actually been subject to proper Parliamentary democratic scrutiny?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 33,033

    Angela gets her excuses in.

    " I flunked this week's PMQs, I lost my train of thought because Boris Johnson pulled out his todger, and it was this big!"
    Then she puts for finger and thumb an eighth of an inch apart and says, ‘Now Cummings, on the other hand...’
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 15,384

    tlg86 said:

    alex_ said:

    Pulpstar said:

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/09/20/trumps-flaws-many-better-britain-biden/

    Daniel "ABSOLUTELY NOBODY IS THREATENING OUR PLACE IN THE SINGLE MARKET" Hannan

    If Biden wins, the free world may find itself longing for a stronger Anglo-American alliance

    Ye Gods what an absolubtely parochial crock of shite take.
    Just checking, does Hannan include countries in the EU as forming part of the "Free World"?
    Probably not. In All Out War it's said that he had an epiphany when the president of Latvia (I think) visited Britain shortly after independence. Apparently he told our politicians that his country was more free than we were (referencing our EU membership).
    And yet Latvia went on to join not only the EU but the Euro, so they couldn't have found the prospect of enslavement by Brussels that appalling.
    They sold out!
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 8,771
    UK cases by specimen date and scaled to 100k population

    Spot the comedy in the Scottish data.....

    image
  • MaxPB said:

    alex_ said:

    Step in and do what? Nationalise them? Presumably she thinks the Government should also nationalise all other airlines which operate pay and conditions that are worse than BA?
    They want to ban hire and refire. Please do read the article.
    That doesn't make it a good policy. Getting rid of fire and rehire just makes it fire and don't rehire.
    Exactly but also business bankrucy in many cases
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 8,771
    UK cases by specimen date

    Spot the comedy in the Scottish data.....

    image
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 7,819
    Nigelb said:
    That would be a really nice bonus!
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 8,771
    UK Cases summary

    image
    image
    image
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 7,819
    ydoethur said:

    Angela gets her excuses in.

    " I flunked this week's PMQs, I lost my train of thought because Boris Johnson pulled out his todger, and it was this big!"
    Then she puts for finger and thumb an eighth of an inch apart and says, ‘Now Cummings, on the other hand...’
    I saw the picture, and that is what it said to me. Paging Sigmund Freud!
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 8,771
    UK Deaths

    image
    image
    image
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 3,935

    MaxPB said:

    alex_ said:

    Step in and do what? Nationalise them? Presumably she thinks the Government should also nationalise all other airlines which operate pay and conditions that are worse than BA?
    They want to ban hire and refire. Please do read the article.
    That doesn't make it a good policy. Getting rid of fire and rehire just makes it fire and don't rehire.
    In various countries, such as France and Spain, they have such employment protections.

    This has resulted in 2 tier employment - very secure jobs for those lucky enough to be *in* and conditions that make UK zero hours look like fun for those who are *out*
    In large organisations you also often get a situation where there are several employment contracts in simultaneous operation. This often happens in the public sector. This is OK when differences in terms and conditions are relatively minor (eg. a couple of days less holiday or something) but as the differences start to grow significantly then also create stagnation. Staff will know that they are protected as long as they stay in their current role. Seek new roles/opportunities/promotions in the organisation and they will find they have to also give up their existing terms and conditions.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 8,771
    UK hospitals

    image
    image
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 15,779

    Nigelb said:
    That would be a really nice bonus!
    "Were you up for Graham?"
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 7,819
    edited September 20
    kinabalu said:

    Nigelb said:
    That would be a really nice bonus!
    "Were you up for Graham?"
    I might be in for Harrison now, didn't see LG in trouble at all in SC.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 8,771
    alex_ said:

    MaxPB said:

    alex_ said:

    Step in and do what? Nationalise them? Presumably she thinks the Government should also nationalise all other airlines which operate pay and conditions that are worse than BA?
    They want to ban hire and refire. Please do read the article.
    That doesn't make it a good policy. Getting rid of fire and rehire just makes it fire and don't rehire.
    In various countries, such as France and Spain, they have such employment protections.

    This has resulted in 2 tier employment - very secure jobs for those lucky enough to be *in* and conditions that make UK zero hours look like fun for those who are *out*
    In large organisations you also often get a situation where there are several employment contracts in simultaneous operation. This often happens in the public sector. This is OK when differences in terms and conditions are relatively minor (eg. a couple of days less holiday or something) but as the differences start to grow significantly then also create stagnation. Staff will know that they are protected as long as they stay in their current role. Seek new roles/opportunities/promotions in the organisation and they will find they have to also give up their existing terms and conditions.
    There is a reason why there was (up until COVID) a flood of young people from France and Spain coming to the UK. It was next to impossible to get on the "good" job ladders there.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 49,873
    @Malmesbury how far back do we have to go until the data is "complete". Wondering how significant the lack of exponential increase is.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 15,384
    I think this is the last time Kepa plays for Chelsea.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 27,031
    The actual current Senate rules on SC nominations.

    https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/can-trump-and-mcconnell-push-through-a-successor-to-ruth-bader-ginsburg
    ... Democrats have few procedural tools at their disposal to delay the process. Specifically, under the Senate’s rules, the opposition party has the right to delay a vote in the Judiciary Committee for a week; and it has the right to insist on at least thirty hours of debate on the Senate floor before cloture—that is, a final move to a vote....

    It’s theoretically possible for McConnell to change the rules to do it faster, but I think that unlikely - not because of any great principle (he has none, other than the exercise of power), but simply because he’d have little to gain in doing so, and would bear the risk of another close vote.
  • tlg86 said:

    I think this is the last time Kepa plays for Chelsea.

    Most expensive goalkeeper at 71 million
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 8,771
    edited September 20
    RobD said:

    @Malmesbury how far back do we have to go until the data is "complete". Wondering how significant the lack of exponential increase is.

    3-5 days.

    Note that testing has max'd out. Which in turn means that tests are being rationed and targeted towards the symptomatic. Using the case numbers to tell you anything about the progress of the epidemic is not going to work.

    Give me five minutes......
  • RobDRobD Posts: 49,873

    RobD said:

    @Malmesbury how far back do we have to go until the data is "complete". Wondering how significant the lack of exponential increase is.

    3-5 days.

    Note that testing has max'd out. Which in turn means that tests are being rationed and targeted towards the symptomatic. Using the case numbers to tell you anything about the progress of the epidemic is not going to work.

    Give me five minutes......
    More curious about the positivity data actually. Very noisy though.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 19,714

    RobD said:

    @Malmesbury how far back do we have to go until the data is "complete". Wondering how significant the lack of exponential increase is.

    3-5 days.

    Note that testing has max'd out. Which in turn means that tests are being rationed and targeted towards the symptomatic. Using the case numbers to tell you anything about the progress of the epidemic is not going to work.

    Give me five minutes......
    I don't think that they can target the symptomatic. To book a test is a self declaration. There is no other screening, more first come first served.

  • tlg86 said:

    I think this is the last time Kepa plays for Chelsea.

    I don't want to pile onto him but when Karius had his meltdown at least he had the excuse of concussion.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 8,771

    RobD said:

    @Malmesbury how far back do we have to go until the data is "complete". Wondering how significant the lack of exponential increase is.

    3-5 days.

    Note that testing has max'd out. Which in turn means that tests are being rationed and targeted towards the symptomatic. Using the case numbers to tell you anything about the progress of the epidemic is not going to work.

    Give me five minutes......
    The real measure of what is going on is the ONS incidence survey

    This graph shows the estimated infections per day in England

    image

    This graph shows the estimate of the percentage of the infections the testing is finding

    image

    This data is up to the 10th September....
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 8,771
    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    @Malmesbury how far back do we have to go until the data is "complete". Wondering how significant the lack of exponential increase is.

    3-5 days.

    Note that testing has max'd out. Which in turn means that tests are being rationed and targeted towards the symptomatic. Using the case numbers to tell you anything about the progress of the epidemic is not going to work.

    Give me five minutes......
    I don't think that they can target the symptomatic. To book a test is a self declaration. There is no other screening, more first come first served.

    I understand that various areas - hospitals, schools, care homes, hotspot testing etc are being prioritised ahead of book-it-yourself testing. Which is why the tests booked online are running out/offering tests miles away.

    The former kinds of testing tend to be *inclined* to be where there is more evidence of COVID.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 6,399
    So all away victories in the EPL today. Let;s hope that comtinues this evening
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 6,399

    tlg86 said:

    I think this is the last time Kepa plays for Chelsea.

    I don't want to pile onto him but when Karius had his meltdown at least he had the excuse of concussion.
    This seems to happen when teams are playing Liverpool
  • alex_ said:

    Step in and do what? Nationalise them? Presumably she thinks the Government should also nationalise all other airlines which operate pay and conditions that are worse than BA?
    They want to ban hire and refire. Please do read the article.
    So you get fire instead. Great progress!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 19,714

    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    @Malmesbury how far back do we have to go until the data is "complete". Wondering how significant the lack of exponential increase is.

    3-5 days.

    Note that testing has max'd out. Which in turn means that tests are being rationed and targeted towards the symptomatic. Using the case numbers to tell you anything about the progress of the epidemic is not going to work.

    Give me five minutes......
    I don't think that they can target the symptomatic. To book a test is a self declaration. There is no other screening, more first come first served.

    I understand that various areas - hospitals, schools, care homes, hotspot testing etc are being prioritised ahead of book-it-yourself testing. Which is why the tests booked online are running out/offering tests miles away.

    The former kinds of testing tend to be *inclined* to be where there is more evidence of COVID.
    Considering Leicester/Oadby are supposed hotspots, the difficulties booking tests locally (Ebbw Vale when I last checked) I don't think so.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 33,687
    Just read PJ O’Rourke’s piece in the ST. Not quite as funny as he used to be. But he makes some good points. Firstly, Biden has no idea why Trump was elected in the first place.
    Trump, inevitably, is on to this: “If things were so great in 2016 I wouldn’t be here.”
    He concludes with: “So how’”, I asked, “did sending a lunatic to Washington fix this?”
    He laughed. “It’s what they’ve got coming.”
    “And maybe, alas , it still is.”
    As he describes it America is torn between those that think government is the solution and those who think that it’s the problem.
    Biden is clearly in the first camp. Trump supporters are in the second. Maybe they don’t blame him for administrative chaos because they never expect anything else. And they have a point.
  • Welcome back @Foxy
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 8,771
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    @Malmesbury how far back do we have to go until the data is "complete". Wondering how significant the lack of exponential increase is.

    3-5 days.

    Note that testing has max'd out. Which in turn means that tests are being rationed and targeted towards the symptomatic. Using the case numbers to tell you anything about the progress of the epidemic is not going to work.

    Give me five minutes......
    I don't think that they can target the symptomatic. To book a test is a self declaration. There is no other screening, more first come first served.

    I understand that various areas - hospitals, schools, care homes, hotspot testing etc are being prioritised ahead of book-it-yourself testing. Which is why the tests booked online are running out/offering tests miles away.

    The former kinds of testing tend to be *inclined* to be where there is more evidence of COVID.
    Considering Leicester/Oadby are supposed hotspots, the difficulties booking tests locally (Ebbw Vale when I last checked) I don't think so.
    By hotspot testing, I meant the organised testing - such as the door to door efforts.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 33,687

    tlg86 said:

    I think this is the last time Kepa plays for Chelsea.

    I don't want to pile onto him but when Karius had his meltdown at least he had the excuse of concussion.
    This seems to happen when teams are playing Liverpool
    I thought Man U had a very valid point about it being too soon to start the EPL season and they stood up for their principles yesterday.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 8,771
    DavidL said:

    Just read PJ O’Rourke’s piece in the ST. Not quite as funny as he used to be. But he makes some good points. Firstly, Biden has no idea why Trump was elected in the first place.
    Trump, inevitably, is on to this: “If things were so great in 2016 I wouldn’t be here.”
    He concludes with: “So how’”, I asked, “did sending a lunatic to Washington fix this?”
    He laughed. “It’s what they’ve got coming.”
    “And maybe, alas , it still is.”
    As he describes it America is torn between those that think government is the solution and those who think that it’s the problem.
    Biden is clearly in the first camp. Trump supporters are in the second. Maybe they don’t blame him for administrative chaos because they never expect anything else. And they have a point.

    The example he gives - of the gas station guy who can't dig up and replace tanks because he can't get permits from 8 levels of the system - is an example of one of the biggest problems in the US. A mad system of regulation that fights itself interspersed with no regulation at all.....

    A friend was involved in a FinTech that wanted to move into the US market - debit only cards, no fees, no lending, online banking. A VISA card for the poorest, just as much as the richest. Blocked - not by the existing banks, but by various interests at the "Community Organiser" level.

    Another example - in LA, a dry cleaner sold his business to Elon Musk's Boring Company, to build an entrance to a tunnel. Months later, he hadn't been able to start his business at the new location - it was a dry cleaners. Why? Well, the city council hadn't given him the permit to open a dry cleaners there yet - despite it being zoned as light industrial....

    In many ways, the UK is far less obsessed with pointless must-have-a-permit-to-open-a-hair-dressers nonsense.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 19,714

    Welcome back @Foxy

    Had I been away? 🤔
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,288
    The autonomous communities with the highest cumulative incidence of COVID-19 in Spain are: Madrid, with 322 positives per 100,000 inhabitants; Navarra, with 300, and La Rioja, with 252. The other side is the Valencian Community, which has an accumulated incidence of 44. If we analyze the trend in the last two weeks, Melilla is the territory that has improved the most, since it has reduced this indicator by 88 points.
  • Serious increases reported by the app over the past week (for what it is worth).

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 9,360
    1345 for Germany on Sunday according to RKI.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 33,687

    DavidL said:

    Just read PJ O’Rourke’s piece in the ST. Not quite as funny as he used to be. But he makes some good points. Firstly, Biden has no idea why Trump was elected in the first place.
    Trump, inevitably, is on to this: “If things were so great in 2016 I wouldn’t be here.”
    He concludes with: “So how’”, I asked, “did sending a lunatic to Washington fix this?”
    He laughed. “It’s what they’ve got coming.”
    “And maybe, alas , it still is.”
    As he describes it America is torn between those that think government is the solution and those who think that it’s the problem.
    Biden is clearly in the first camp. Trump supporters are in the second. Maybe they don’t blame him for administrative chaos because they never expect anything else. And they have a point.

    The example he gives - of the gas station guy who can't dig up and replace tanks because he can't get permits from 8 levels of the system - is an example of one of the biggest problems in the US. A mad system of regulation that fights itself interspersed with no regulation at all.....

    A friend was involved in a FinTech that wanted to move into the US market - debit only cards, no fees, no lending, online banking. A VISA card for the poorest, just as much as the richest. Blocked - not by the existing banks, but by various interests at the "Community Organiser" level.

    Another example - in LA, a dry cleaner sold his business to Elon Musk's Boring Company, to build an entrance to a tunnel. Months later, he hadn't been able to start his business at the new location - it was a dry cleaners. Why? Well, the city council hadn't given him the permit to open a dry cleaners there yet - despite it being zoned as light industrial....

    In many ways, the UK is far less obsessed with pointless must-have-a-permit-to-open-a-hair-dressers nonsense.
    I also liked the bit about Russian involvement in the 2016 election...”I‘ve driven Russian cars.”
  • RobD said:

    @Malmesbury how far back do we have to go until the data is "complete". Wondering how significant the lack of exponential increase is.

    3-5 days.

    Note that testing has max'd out. Which in turn means that tests are being rationed and targeted towards the symptomatic. Using the case numbers to tell you anything about the progress of the epidemic is not going to work.

    Give me five minutes......
    Won't most testing still be targetted at the regular testing of health service and care home workers?
  • Foxy said:

    Welcome back @Foxy

    Had I been away? 🤔
    I hadn't said hello if you were, hope all well
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 38,328
    Starmer wants to be PM. Starmer wants that on his own terms. That means Starmer is fighting for an outright victory (Labour clear of 325+ seats) in one go.

    He knows he will only, at best, scrape a handful in Scotland. So, he's going to have to match a Blair 1997 or 2001 result (preferably the former) in England to do this.

    Flag, forces, family is the kind of line he's going to have to take to do it.

    It won't be called this, of course, but it will in effect be New New Labour (it will have to be) and it will differ in at least two important aspects: one, it won't be as pro-market and, two, it will not be as liberal on migration.

    As it happens, I suspect Starmer *does* belief in all the usual North London soft-left tropes: Brexiters are racist, loves the EU, loves migration and migrant rights, and veganism is the way, but he's smart enough to bury it.

    Such is his ambition.
This discussion has been closed.