Undefined discussion subject.

It is not just Trump, his wife and children will be speaking too.

A few other senior Republicans like Nikki Haley tonight, Mike Pompeo and Rand Paul tomorrow, VP Pence on Wednesday and Rudy Giuliani on Thursday will be speaking as well.

I am also not so sure making the convention about him will work badly for him and well for Biden, as Kerry and Romney found out trying to win by not being the President does not work as well as actually voting for the President.

Candidates who beat incumbent Presidents like Reagan and Bill Clinton won by having strong and charismatic enough personalities to have voters vote for them, not just against the incumbent. Biden needs to do more than just wait for Trump to lose.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/08/republican-national-convention-schedule-2020-200822162053624.html

HYUFD said:

It is not just Trump, his wife and children will be speaking too.

A few other senior Republicans like Nikki Haley tonight, Mike Pompeo and Rand Paul tomorrow, VP Pence on Wednesday and Rudy Giuliani on Thursday will be speaking as well.

I am also not so sure making the convention about him will work badly for him and well for Biden, as Kerry and Romney found out trying to win by not being the President does not work as well as actually voting for the President.

Candidates who beat incumbent Presidents like Reagan and Bill Clinton won by having strong and charismatic enough personalities to have voters vote for them, not just against the incumbent. Biden needs to do more than just wait for Trump to lose.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/08/republican-national-convention-schedule-2020-200822162053624.html

I agree

35% approval !

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

It is not just Trump, his wife and children will be speaking too.

A few other senior Republicans like Nikki Haley tonight, Mike Pompeo and Rand Paul tomorrow, VP Pence on Wednesday and Rudy Giuliani on Thursday will be speaking as well.

I am also not so sure making the convention about him will work badly for him and well for Biden, as Kerry and Romney found out trying to win by not being the President does not work as well as actually voting for the President.

Candidates who beat incumbent Presidents like Reagan and Bill Clinton won by having strong and charismatic enough personalities to have voters vote for them, not just against the incumbent. Biden needs to do more than just wait for Trump to lose.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/08/republican-national-convention-schedule-2020-200822162053624.html

I sort of agree, but not completely.

Presidents tend to get re-elected. The exceptions in the last 45 years are Carter, Bush Sr, and Ford.

Now, on charisma, Reagan beat out Carter, and Clinton beat Bush. But then again, Ford was a pretty charismatic guy, while Carter was not. So charisma isn't everything.

I think a more reliable indicator for change of control of the Presidency is serious recessions:

Ford had one.
Carter had one.
Bush Sr had one.

Bush Jr also had one and handed over to Obama. While Bush Jr benefits from Clinton hitting the end of the TMT bubble and the Year 2000 slowdown.

Now 2020 is a little different, because the US recession is not being blamed on Trump, but on CV19. On the other hand, people who lose their jobs blame the man in charge, however fair or unfair that is.

Carter was arguably more charismatic than Ford but less so than Reagan.

If the economy alone was the factor Romney should probably have won in 2012

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

It is not just Trump, his wife and children will be speaking too.

A few other senior Republicans like Nikki Haley tonight, Mike Pompeo and Rand Paul tomorrow, VP Pence on Wednesday and Rudy Giuliani on Thursday will be speaking as well.

I am also not so sure making the convention about him will work badly for him and well for Biden, as Kerry and Romney found out trying to win by not being the President does not work as well as actually voting for the President.

Candidates who beat incumbent Presidents like Reagan and Bill Clinton won by having strong and charismatic enough personalities to have voters vote for them, not just against the incumbent. Biden needs to do more than just wait for Trump to lose.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/08/republican-national-convention-schedule-2020-200822162053624.html

I sort of agree, but not completely.

Presidents tend to get re-elected. The exceptions in the last 45 years are Carter, Bush Sr, and Ford.

Now, on charisma, Reagan beat out Carter, and Clinton beat Bush. But then again, Ford was a pretty charismatic guy, while Carter was not. So charisma isn't everything.

I think a more reliable indicator for change of control of the Presidency is serious recessions:

Ford had one.
Carter had one.
Bush Sr had one.

Bush Jr also had one and handed over to Obama. While Bush Jr benefits from Clinton hitting the end of the TMT bubble and the Year 2000 slowdown.

Now 2020 is a little different, because the US recession is not being blamed on Trump, but on CV19. On the other hand, people who lose their jobs blame the man in charge, however fair or unfair that is.

1976, the US was just out of a painful two year recession and the incumbent party lost.

1980, the US was in recession and the incumbent party lost.

1984, the US registered 7% GDP growth, and the incumbent party swept the board.

1988, fourth year of c. 4% GDP growth in a row, incumbent party re-elected.

1992, US just leaving an 18 month recession, and the incumbent party lost.

1996, fourth year of c. 4% GDP growth in a row, incumbent party re-elected.

2000, bursting of the TMT bubble, and US economy slowing sharply at time of election, and the incumbent party lost (just).

2004, US economic growth back up to almost 4%, incumbent party re-elected.

2008, Global Financial Crisis and recession, and the incumbent party lost.

2012, economic recovery, and incumbent re-elected.

2016, economic growth slowed to just 1.6% (the slowest since the 2008/9 GFC), and the incumbent party lost.

I could be wrong, but it seems that good economic news is good for the incumbents, and vice versa. This also suggests Trump would probably have walked it, if not for CV19.

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

It is not just Trump, his wife and children will be speaking too.

A few other senior Republicans like Nikki Haley tonight, Mike Pompeo and Rand Paul tomorrow, VP Pence on Wednesday and Rudy Giuliani on Thursday will be speaking as well.

I am also not so sure making the convention about him will work badly for him and well for Biden, as Kerry and Romney found out trying to win by not being the President does not work as well as actually voting for the President.

Candidates who beat incumbent Presidents like Reagan and Bill Clinton won by having strong and charismatic enough personalities to have voters vote for them, not just against the incumbent. Biden needs to do more than just wait for Trump to lose.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/08/republican-national-convention-schedule-2020-200822162053624.html

I sort of agree, but not completely.

Presidents tend to get re-elected. The exceptions in the last 45 years are Carter, Bush Sr, and Ford.

Now, on charisma, Reagan beat out Carter, and Clinton beat Bush. But then again, Ford was a pretty charismatic guy, while Carter was not. So charisma isn't everything.

I think a more reliable indicator for change of control of the Presidency is serious recessions:

Ford had one.
Carter had one.
Bush Sr had one.

Bush Jr also had one and handed over to Obama. While Bush Jr benefits from Clinton hitting the end of the TMT bubble and the Year 2000 slowdown.

Now 2020 is a little different, because the US recession is not being blamed on Trump, but on CV19. On the other hand, people who lose their jobs blame the man in charge, however fair or unfair that is.

Carter was arguably more charismatic than Ford but less so than Reagan.

If the economy alone was the factor Romney should probably have won in 2012

Romney got a greater proportion of the electorate to vote for him than Trump did.

MrEd said:

As was posted on the previous thread, the issue of riots and concern over law and order is now starting to seep into US voters' minds as to which way to vote.

This is going to be the issue that will kill the Democrats. I'm sure we will have the usual "but it's not in the polls" argument but gun sales going through the roof tells you how scared many Americans are by what is happened at the moment. It is unlikely they will think Joe Biden is the person to fix the mess.

72 days.

That's how long is left.

And Biden continues to average over 50% in the polls. Which Clinton never did.

Now. It's entirely possible the polls are wrong. And it's possible that this issue of law and order will completely dominate the election. And I totally buy that Trump voters are more enthused.

The problem is that Trump should be closing the gap. He's not. Indeed, the polls seem to be worsening for him. And the economic news is not good. New unemployment claims were back at almost a million last week, that's a sharp reversal of previous progress.

Can I see Trump winning? Of course I can.

But while I thought he was value at 30% a month ago, he's now above 40%, when his polling position has worsened.

Law and order may be his way back. But it's a stretch. It's a lot easier to run on a "all is anarchy, you need me to get order" when you're the challenger than when you're the incumbent.

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

It is not just Trump, his wife and children will be speaking too.

A few other senior Republicans like Nikki Haley tonight, Mike Pompeo and Rand Paul tomorrow, VP Pence on Wednesday and Rudy Giuliani on Thursday will be speaking as well.

I am also not so sure making the convention about him will work badly for him and well for Biden, as Kerry and Romney found out trying to win by not being the President does not work as well as actually voting for the President.

Candidates who beat incumbent Presidents like Reagan and Bill Clinton won by having strong and charismatic enough personalities to have voters vote for them, not just against the incumbent. Biden needs to do more than just wait for Trump to lose.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/08/republican-national-convention-schedule-2020-200822162053624.html

I sort of agree, but not completely.

Presidents tend to get re-elected. The exceptions in the last 45 years are Carter, Bush Sr, and Ford.

Now, on charisma, Reagan beat out Carter, and Clinton beat Bush. But then again, Ford was a pretty charismatic guy, while Carter was not. So charisma isn't everything.

I think a more reliable indicator for change of control of the Presidency is serious recessions:

Ford had one.
Carter had one.
Bush Sr had one.

Bush Jr also had one and handed over to Obama. While Bush Jr benefits from Clinton hitting the end of the TMT bubble and the Year 2000 slowdown.

Now 2020 is a little different, because the US recession is not being blamed on Trump, but on CV19. On the other hand, people who lose their jobs blame the man in charge, however fair or unfair that is.

Carter was arguably more charismatic than Ford but less so than Reagan.

If the economy alone was the factor Romney should probably have won in 2012

Romney got a greater proportion of the electorate to vote for him than Trump did.

But not in the key states where it mattered

rcs1000 said:

MrEd said:

As was posted on the previous thread, the issue of riots and concern over law and order is now starting to seep into US voters' minds as to which way to vote.

This is going to be the issue that will kill the Democrats. I'm sure we will have the usual "but it's not in the polls" argument but gun sales going through the roof tells you how scared many Americans are by what is happened at the moment. It is unlikely they will think Joe Biden is the person to fix the mess.

72 days.

That's how long is left.

And Biden continues to average over 50% in the polls. Which Clinton never did.

Now. It's entirely possible the polls are wrong. And it's possible that this issue of law and order will completely dominate the election. And I totally buy that Trump voters are more enthused.

The problem is that Trump should be closing the gap. He's not. Indeed, the polls seem to be worsening for him. And the economic news is not good. New unemployment claims were back at almost a million last week, that's a sharp reversal of previous progress.

Can I see Trump winning? Of course I can.

But while I thought he was value at 30% a month ago, he's now above 40%, when his polling position has worsened.

Law and order may be his way back. But it's a stretch. It's a lot easier to run on a "all is anarchy, you need me to get order" when you're the challenger than when you're the incumbent.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/

Biden is averaging 51.4% in the 538 national poll. The highest that Ms Clinton ever reached (her absolute high watermark in the poll of polls) was 46%.

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

It is not just Trump, his wife and children will be speaking too.

A few other senior Republicans like Nikki Haley tonight, Mike Pompeo and Rand Paul tomorrow, VP Pence on Wednesday and Rudy Giuliani on Thursday will be speaking as well.

I am also not so sure making the convention about him will work badly for him and well for Biden, as Kerry and Romney found out trying to win by not being the President does not work as well as actually voting for the President.

Candidates who beat incumbent Presidents like Reagan and Bill Clinton won by having strong and charismatic enough personalities to have voters vote for them, not just against the incumbent. Biden needs to do more than just wait for Trump to lose.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/08/republican-national-convention-schedule-2020-200822162053624.html

I sort of agree, but not completely.

Presidents tend to get re-elected. The exceptions in the last 45 years are Carter, Bush Sr, and Ford.

Now, on charisma, Reagan beat out Carter, and Clinton beat Bush. But then again, Ford was a pretty charismatic guy, while Carter was not. So charisma isn't everything.

I think a more reliable indicator for change of control of the Presidency is serious recessions:

Ford had one.
Carter had one.
Bush Sr had one.

Bush Jr also had one and handed over to Obama. While Bush Jr benefits from Clinton hitting the end of the TMT bubble and the Year 2000 slowdown.

Now 2020 is a little different, because the US recession is not being blamed on Trump, but on CV19. On the other hand, people who lose their jobs blame the man in charge, however fair or unfair that is.

Carter was arguably more charismatic than Ford but less so than Reagan.

If the economy alone was the factor Romney should probably have won in 2012

Romney got a greater proportion of the electorate to vote for him than Trump did.

But not in the key states where it mattered

Sure, but I think it's important to remember that Romney beat Trump, in terms of getting people out to vote for him.

Romney got 60 million votes in 2012, Trump got 62 million in 2016

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

It is not just Trump, his wife and children will be speaking too.

A few other senior Republicans like Nikki Haley tonight, Mike Pompeo and Rand Paul tomorrow, VP Pence on Wednesday and Rudy Giuliani on Thursday will be speaking as well.

I am also not so sure making the convention about him will work badly for him and well for Biden, as Kerry and Romney found out trying to win by not being the President does not work as well as actually voting for the President.

Candidates who beat incumbent Presidents like Reagan and Bill Clinton won by having strong and charismatic enough personalities to have voters vote for them, not just against the incumbent. Biden needs to do more than just wait for Trump to lose.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/08/republican-national-convention-schedule-2020-200822162053624.html

I sort of agree, but not completely.

Presidents tend to get re-elected. The exceptions in the last 45 years are Carter, Bush Sr, and Ford.

Now, on charisma, Reagan beat out Carter, and Clinton beat Bush. But then again, Ford was a pretty charismatic guy, while Carter was not. So charisma isn't everything.

I think a more reliable indicator for change of control of the Presidency is serious recessions:

Ford had one.
Carter had one.
Bush Sr had one.

Bush Jr also had one and handed over to Obama. While Bush Jr benefits from Clinton hitting the end of the TMT bubble and the Year 2000 slowdown.

Now 2020 is a little different, because the US recession is not being blamed on Trump, but on CV19. On the other hand, people who lose their jobs blame the man in charge, however fair or unfair that is.

Carter was arguably more charismatic than Ford but less so than Reagan.

If the economy alone was the factor Romney should probably have won in 2012

Romney got a greater proportion of the electorate to vote for him than Trump did.

But not in the key states where it mattered

Sure, but I think it's important to remember that Romney beat Trump, in terms of getting people out to vote for him.

Romney got 60 million votes in 2012, Trump got 62 million in 2016

Correct, Trump got a smaller share of the population to vote for him.

The armed wing of the anti-maskers.

https://twitter.com/khennessey/status/1298039192820297729?s=21

williamglenn said:

The armed wing of the anti-maskers.

https://twitter.com/khennessey/status/1298039192820297729?s=21

I wonder what would have happened if black men with guns had attempted to break into the state house.

TimT said:

rcs1000 said:

rcs1000 said:

MrEd said:

As was posted on the previous thread, the issue of riots and concern over law and order is now starting to seep into US voters' minds as to which way to vote.

This is going to be the issue that will kill the Democrats. I'm sure we will have the usual "but it's not in the polls" argument but gun sales going through the roof tells you how scared many Americans are by what is happened at the moment. It is unlikely they will think Joe Biden is the person to fix the mess.

72 days.

That's how long is left.

And Biden continues to average over 50% in the polls. Which Clinton never did.

Now. It's entirely possible the polls are wrong. And it's possible that this issue of law and order will completely dominate the election. And I totally buy that Trump voters are more enthused.

The problem is that Trump should be closing the gap. He's not. Indeed, the polls seem to be worsening for him. And the economic news is not good. New unemployment claims were back at almost a million last week, that's a sharp reversal of previous progress.

Can I see Trump winning? Of course I can.

But while I thought he was value at 30% a month ago, he's now above 40%, when his polling position has worsened.

Law and order may be his way back. But it's a stretch. It's a lot easier to run on a "all is anarchy, you need me to get order" when you're the challenger than when you're the incumbent.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/

Biden is averaging 51.4% in the 538 national poll. The highest that Ms Clinton ever reached (her absolute high watermark in the poll of polls) was 46%.

And it's harder to win on a law and order ticket when the white police keep shooting unarmed black men in the back at point blank range

I believe it goes down well in some states.

In others... not so much.

Just spent an evening walking around central London. I didn't expect it to be as empty as that.

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1298065244468781059?s=21

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1298065244468781059?s=21

Reads suspiciously like fake news

https://twitter.com/shanegoldmacher/status/1298079129271705600?s=21

Andy_JS said:

Trump's detractors still don't understand him, after 4 years.

Unfortunately for the President, a lot of independents now do.

rcs1000 said:

Andy_JS said:

Trump's detractors still don't understand him, after 4 years.

Unfortunately for the President, a lot of independents now do.

Question is whether now realising that Trump's a complete arse converts into voting for the other guy.

Sunak is 5.6 / 5.7 to be next PM. Maybe a value bet.

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.160843673

Nigelb said:

Andy_JS said:

Trump's detractors still don't understand him, after 4 years.

Please explain what we’re missing about him.

Or keep it a secret. Whichever.

MarqueeMark said:

MrEd said:

As was posted on the previous thread, the issue of riots and concern over law and order is now starting to seep into US voters' minds as to which way to vote.

This is going to be the issue that will kill the Democrats. I'm sure we will have the usual "but it's not in the polls" argument but gun sales going through the roof tells you how scared many Americans are by what is happened at the moment. It is unlikely they will think Joe Biden is the person to fix the mess.

I also suspect an expression of that fear is not admitting in public - even to pollsters - that they put their faith in Trump to be the guy to best look after them. Sure, Trump is an idiot. But he's their idiot....

It's just not something you admit to.

I mean people were shy about voting for John Major. He's got nothing on Trump

RobD said:

MarqueeMark said:

MrEd said:

As was posted on the previous thread, the issue of riots and concern over law and order is now starting to seep into US voters' minds as to which way to vote.

This is going to be the issue that will kill the Democrats. I'm sure we will have the usual "but it's not in the polls" argument but gun sales going through the roof tells you how scared many Americans are by what is happened at the moment. It is unlikely they will think Joe Biden is the person to fix the mess.

I also suspect an expression of that fear is not admitting in public - even to pollsters - that they put their faith in Trump to be the guy to best look after them. Sure, Trump is an idiot. But he's their idiot....

It's just not something you admit to.

I mean people were shy about voting for John Major. He's got nothing on Trump

Boris is the British Trump, both in terms of charisma and casual disregard for rules and norms. I imagine Labour and Conservative Party workers will be closely examining this campaign for that reason (and not just because they always do).

DecrepiterJohnL said:

RobD said:

MarqueeMark said:

MrEd said:

As was posted on the previous thread, the issue of riots and concern over law and order is now starting to seep into US voters' minds as to which way to vote.

This is going to be the issue that will kill the Democrats. I'm sure we will have the usual "but it's not in the polls" argument but gun sales going through the roof tells you how scared many Americans are by what is happened at the moment. It is unlikely they will think Joe Biden is the person to fix the mess.

I also suspect an expression of that fear is not admitting in public - even to pollsters - that they put their faith in Trump to be the guy to best look after them. Sure, Trump is an idiot. But he's their idiot....

It's just not something you admit to.

I mean people were shy about voting for John Major. He's got nothing on Trump

Boris is the British Trump, both in terms of charisma and casual disregard for rules and norms. I imagine Labour and Conservative Party workers will be closely examining this campaign for that reason (and not just because they always do).

Not even close.
True there are some parallels, but while Johnson shares the narcissism, it’s not combined with the same raging egomania or megalomania.

Johnson has limits; Trump has none.

Nigelb said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

RobD said:

MarqueeMark said:

MrEd said:

As was posted on the previous thread, the issue of riots and concern over law and order is now starting to seep into US voters' minds as to which way to vote.

This is going to be the issue that will kill the Democrats. I'm sure we will have the usual "but it's not in the polls" argument but gun sales going through the roof tells you how scared many Americans are by what is happened at the moment. It is unlikely they will think Joe Biden is the person to fix the mess.

I also suspect an expression of that fear is not admitting in public - even to pollsters - that they put their faith in Trump to be the guy to best look after them. Sure, Trump is an idiot. But he's their idiot....

It's just not something you admit to.

I mean people were shy about voting for John Major. He's got nothing on Trump

Boris is the British Trump, both in terms of charisma and casual disregard for rules and norms. I imagine Labour and Conservative Party workers will be closely examining this campaign for that reason (and not just because they always do).

Not even close.
True there are some parallels, but while Johnson shares the narcissism, it’s not combined with the same raging egomania or megalomania.

Johnson has limits; Trump has none.

Really? How about the combined entity, Boris plus Cummings?

tlg86 said:

RobD said:

MarqueeMark said:

MrEd said:

As was posted on the previous thread, the issue of riots and concern over law and order is now starting to seep into US voters' minds as to which way to vote.

This is going to be the issue that will kill the Democrats. I'm sure we will have the usual "but it's not in the polls" argument but gun sales going through the roof tells you how scared many Americans are by what is happened at the moment. It is unlikely they will think Joe Biden is the person to fix the mess.

I also suspect an expression of that fear is not admitting in public - even to pollsters - that they put their faith in Trump to be the guy to best look after them. Sure, Trump is an idiot. But he's their idiot....

It's just not something you admit to.

I mean people were shy about voting for John Major. He's got nothing on Trump

Well Biden is the American Kinnock. When he start's shouting "we're alriiiiiiiiiight", we'll know Trump's won.

You refer to Biden plagiarising Kinnock's speech but the parallel here is not quite right. Kinnock had policies by the bucket-load. Look at the end of OGH's header and turn the criticism the other way. Biden is relying on not being Trump. There is almost nothing else there.

rcs1000 said:

Andy_JS said:

Trump's detractors still don't understand him, after 4 years.

Unfortunately for the President, a lot of independents now do.

The wildly unrepresentative handful of Americans I know are absolutely going to vote Biden to get rid of Trump. Their minds are completely made up I can't conceive of anything that would change them. The bad news for Trump is that some of them are people who have been apolitical or antipolitical as long as I have known them, and haven't voted for many election cycles. I can't imagine opinion polls picking them up. I wouldn't be surprised if the polls end up underestimating Biden's lead, though it could go either way, obviously.

Polls have been indicating for a while that most people made up their minds a long time ago about Trump, and the majority are against. Even a booming economy wouldn't make him favorite imo.

Nigelb said:

kamski said:

rcs1000 said:

Andy_JS said:

Trump's detractors still don't understand him, after 4 years.

Unfortunately for the President, a lot of independents now do.

The wildly unrepresentative handful of Americans I know are absolutely going to vote Biden to get rid of Trump. Their minds are completely made up I can't conceive of anything that would change them. The bad news for Trump is that some of them are people who have been apolitical or antipolitical as long as I have known them, and haven't voted for many election cycles. I can't imagine opinion polls picking them up. I wouldn't be surprised if the polls end up underestimating Biden's lead, though it could go either way, obviously.

Polls have been indicating for a while that most people made up their minds a long time ago about Trump, and the majority are against. Even a booming economy wouldn't make him favorite imo.

As a matter of anecdotal interest, which states ?
The one I know are Californian, so not ideal barometers of opinion.

Because Californians would never vote for some guy just because they'd seen him on the telly and were star-struck? Reagan, Arnie, now Trump.

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Nigelb said:

kamski said:

rcs1000 said:

Andy_JS said:

Trump's detractors still don't understand him, after 4 years.

Unfortunately for the President, a lot of independents now do.

The wildly unrepresentative handful of Americans I know are absolutely going to vote Biden to get rid of Trump. Their minds are completely made up I can't conceive of anything that would change them. The bad news for Trump is that some of them are people who have been apolitical or antipolitical as long as I have known them, and haven't voted for many election cycles. I can't imagine opinion polls picking them up. I wouldn't be surprised if the polls end up underestimating Biden's lead, though it could go either way, obviously.

Polls have been indicating for a while that most people made up their minds a long time ago about Trump, and the majority are against. Even a booming economy wouldn't make him favorite imo.

As a matter of anecdotal interest, which states ?
The one I know are Californian, so not ideal barometers of opinion.

Because Californians would never vote for some guy just because they'd seen him on the telly and were star-struck? Reagan, Arnie, now Trump.

Because California isn’t a swing state.

This is a very interesting technology, which will turbocharge Moore’s Law for a decade.

Optical Compute Promises Game-Changing AI Performance
https://www.eetimes.com/optical-compute-promises-game-changing-ai-performance/
We could take existing AI data centers and reduce the energy consumption by a factor of 20 and shrink the physical footprint by a factor of five,” Harris said. “And that’s just with the first generation of what we’re building. There’s a long road map ahead.”

While Harris emphasized that this test chip has been built as a demonstrator for the technology, and not to do well on benchmarks, he was adamant that in a practical application Lightmatter’s demonstrator would still beat the market leader for AI acceleration, Nvidia’s Ampere A100. Harris said that compared to the A100, Lightmatter’s chip offers 20 times the energy efficiency and at least five times the throughput on workloads like BERT and Resnet-50 inference....

Nigelb said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

RobD said:

MarqueeMark said:

MrEd said:

As was posted on the previous thread, the issue of riots and concern over law and order is now starting to seep into US voters' minds as to which way to vote.

This is going to be the issue that will kill the Democrats. I'm sure we will have the usual "but it's not in the polls" argument but gun sales going through the roof tells you how scared many Americans are by what is happened at the moment. It is unlikely they will think Joe Biden is the person to fix the mess.

I also suspect an expression of that fear is not admitting in public - even to pollsters - that they put their faith in Trump to be the guy to best look after them. Sure, Trump is an idiot. But he's their idiot....

It's just not something you admit to.

I mean people were shy about voting for John Major. He's got nothing on Trump

Boris is the British Trump, both in terms of charisma and casual disregard for rules and norms. I imagine Labour and Conservative Party workers will be closely examining this campaign for that reason (and not just because they always do).

Not even close.
True there are some parallels, but while Johnson shares the narcissism, it’s not combined with the same raging egomania or megalomania.

Johnson has limits; Trump has none.

Difference is that Johnson is not just as sneaky or sly as Trump, Trump is cunning whereas Bozo is not nearly as sharp. Both cheeks of the same arse though.
PS: Hence why Bozo needs a sewer rat like Cummings pulling his strings

MarqueeMark said:

MrEd said:

As was posted on the previous thread, the issue of riots and concern over law and order is now starting to seep into US voters' minds as to which way to vote.

This is going to be the issue that will kill the Democrats. I'm sure we will have the usual "but it's not in the polls" argument but gun sales going through the roof tells you how scared many Americans are by what is happened at the moment. It is unlikely they will think Joe Biden is the person to fix the mess.

I also suspect an expression of that fear is not admitting in public - even to pollsters - that they put their faith in Trump to be the guy to best look after them. Sure, Trump is an idiot. But he's their idiot....

It's just not something you admit to.

I really get the emotional appeal of Trump - that's he's standing up for Americans (and a way of life) that has been ignored by both parties and the coastal elites and their love of immigration and gloablisation and all that.

But.

Ultimately, the system matters more than the person. (If history has taught us one thing, it's that in the long run it's better to have a good system, than a great person.) And Trump is proving himself to be a danger to the American system - by which I mean the system of checks and balances, the separation of powers, and the system of democracy.

Cricket and the weather. The draw has lengthened to 1.7 from 1.4 last night.

malcolmg said:

Nigelb said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

RobD said:

MarqueeMark said:

MrEd said:

As was posted on the previous thread, the issue of riots and concern over law and order is now starting to seep into US voters' minds as to which way to vote.

This is going to be the issue that will kill the Democrats. I'm sure we will have the usual "but it's not in the polls" argument but gun sales going through the roof tells you how scared many Americans are by what is happened at the moment. It is unlikely they will think Joe Biden is the person to fix the mess.

I also suspect an expression of that fear is not admitting in public - even to pollsters - that they put their faith in Trump to be the guy to best look after them. Sure, Trump is an idiot. But he's their idiot....

It's just not something you admit to.

I mean people were shy about voting for John Major. He's got nothing on Trump

Boris is the British Trump, both in terms of charisma and casual disregard for rules and norms. I imagine Labour and Conservative Party workers will be closely examining this campaign for that reason (and not just because they always do).

Not even close.
True there are some parallels, but while Johnson shares the narcissism, it’s not combined with the same raging egomania or megalomania.

Johnson has limits; Trump has none.

Difference is that Johnson is not just as sneaky or sly as Trump, Trump is cunning whereas Bozo is not nearly as sharp. Both cheeks of the same arse though.
PS: Hence why Bozo needs a sewer rat like Cummings pulling his strings

Is Trump cunning? He seems like a bull in a china shop to me, and relies on the support of those around him for the cunning. But I do realise that someone good at cunning does not let on how cunning they are.

OldKingCole said:

Hello everyone; not going to suggest it's a good morning. Can't think of many, indeed if any reasons for saying so.

Ms Toynbee, in the Guardian is quite severely depressing, too.

Although on a personal level I'm alive and ready for the gym, which at 80+ is probably something about which to be happy!

Ms Toynbee is always severely depressing

Having just seen the report on Trump last night I have to say it was very slick and I cannot stand the man

Maybe everyone needs to be cautious over calling this a Biden walkover

And I do not follow US politics at all

The first performances of Elgar's Pomp and Circumstance March No 1 were free from lyrics in 1901.

Land of Hope and Glory formed the finale of The Coronation Ode, though to different words to those belted out during the Proms Last Night.

There are plenty of different lyrics to the tune, which football supporters used to add.

OldKingCole said:

Hello everyone; not going to suggest it's a good morning. Can't think of many, indeed if any reasons for saying so.

Ms Toynbee, in the Guardian is quite severely depressing, too.

Although on a personal level I'm alive and ready for the gym, which at 80+ is probably something about which to be happy!

Great work! Can't imagine a dose of Toynbee being very good gym motivation though.

A dialog
"you are all too stupid and enmeshed in your liberal elite views to understamnd why Trump is so phenomenally popular which is why he won the election over the hugely unpopular Hilary Clinton"
"Trump got 3 million less votes than Clinton"
"Ah, I'm talking about his appeal to the White Working Classes which you would never understand with your Liberal elite views. His huge popularity with the WWC is why he won rust belt states like Wisconsin the like of which Romney could never reach"
"Trump got less votes than Romney in Wisconsin"
"You'll never understand Trump"

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Cricket and the weather. The draw has lengthened to 1.7 from 1.4 last night.

Can all rain in the country please head for Taunton and sit over Ciderabad for 24 hours.

Especially the rain currently lashing my roof.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

OldKingCole said:

Hello everyone; not going to suggest it's a good morning. Can't think of many, indeed if any reasons for saying so.

Ms Toynbee, in the Guardian is quite severely depressing, too.

Although on a personal level I'm alive and ready for the gym, which at 80+ is probably something about which to be happy!

Ms Toynbee is always severely depressing

To cheer people up, here is a great piece of modern satire:

https://en.uncyclopedia.co/wiki/Polly_Toynbee

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

It is not just Trump, his wife and children will be speaking too.

A few other senior Republicans like Nikki Haley tonight, Mike Pompeo and Rand Paul tomorrow, VP Pence on Wednesday and Rudy Giuliani on Thursday will be speaking as well.

I am also not so sure making the convention about him will work badly for him and well for Biden, as Kerry and Romney found out trying to win by not being the President does not work as well as actually voting for the President.

Candidates who beat incumbent Presidents like Reagan and Bill Clinton won by having strong and charismatic enough personalities to have voters vote for them, not just against the incumbent. Biden needs to do more than just wait for Trump to lose.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/08/republican-national-convention-schedule-2020-200822162053624.html

I sort of agree, but not completely.

Presidents tend to get re-elected. The exceptions in the last 45 years are Carter, Bush Sr, and Ford.

Now, on charisma, Reagan beat out Carter, and Clinton beat Bush. But then again, Ford was a pretty charismatic guy, while Carter was not. So charisma isn't everything.

I think a more reliable indicator for change of control of the Presidency is serious recessions:

Ford had one.
Carter had one.
Bush Sr had one.

Bush Jr also had one and handed over to Obama. While Bush Jr benefits from Clinton hitting the end of the TMT bubble and the Year 2000 slowdown.

Now 2020 is a little different, because the US recession is not being blamed on Trump, but on CV19. On the other hand, people who lose their jobs blame the man in charge, however fair or unfair that is.

Carter was arguably more charismatic than Ford but less so than Reagan.

If the economy alone was the factor Romney should probably have won in 2012

Romney got a greater proportion of the electorate to vote for him than Trump did.

But not in the key states where it mattered

Sure, but I think it's important to remember that Romney beat Trump, in terms of getting people out to vote for him.

Romney got 60 million votes in 2012, Trump got 62 million in 2016

And there were10 million more Americans who were eligible to vote.

logical_song said:

logical_song said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Nigelb said:

kamski said:

rcs1000 said:

Andy_JS said:

Trump's detractors still don't understand him, after 4 years.

Unfortunately for the President, a lot of independents now do.

The wildly unrepresentative handful of Americans I know are absolutely going to vote Biden to get rid of Trump. Their minds are completely made up I can't conceive of anything that would change them. The bad news for Trump is that some of them are people who have been apolitical or antipolitical as long as I have known them, and haven't voted for many election cycles. I can't imagine opinion polls picking them up. I wouldn't be surprised if the polls end up underestimating Biden's lead, though it could go either way, obviously.

Polls have been indicating for a while that most people made up their minds a long time ago about Trump, and the majority are against. Even a booming economy wouldn't make him favorite imo.

As a matter of anecdotal interest, which states ?
The one I know are Californian, so not ideal barometers of opinion.

Because Californians would never vote for some guy just because they'd seen him on the telly and were star-struck? Reagan, Arnie, now Trump.

Arnie is a Republican but intelligent and not an anti-science climate change denier (quite the opposite).

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/greta-thunberg-arnold-schwarzenegger-car-climate-change-a9122206.html

in answer to the question above which states:
california, new york, arizona

so I'm calling Arizona for Biden on the basis of a couple of friends...

I was speaking to a friend in California yesterday (in the smoke in Santa Cruz!) who was saying something like "sure, my vote isn't going to make any difference here, but I've still got to do my bit" and wouldn't consider a 3rd-party vote because only a vote for Biden is sufficiently anti-Trump, even in a state where it's a foregone conclusion. This was one of those people who hasn't voted for many election cycles. Yes it's California, but I'm guessing there are people like that in swing states too.

My impression is we hear quite a lot from people who voted Trump last time, who are sticking with him - well of course otherwise he wouldn't have any chance at all - but there might be a significant chunk of people who didn't vote last time, who will this time. I'm not sure what the polling says, but I'm guessing they are going to break more for Biden than Trump.

On the proms, what’s a little odd is the BBC apparently choosing to take sides on the brewing culture wars. Regardless of what people might claim, hardly anyone takes any notice of the proms. But once the spotlight of public attention was shone on this, why didnt the Beeb just say they’d always had plans for a soloist this year? It’s actually extraordinary that the Beeb have not backed down because it’s a trigger issue for the most important chunk of their customer base.

It reminds me a bit of how the over 50s have been trained by covid into ditching complacent businesses for online shopping instead. Same is likely to happen with the bbc. They’re taking their audience for granted, because they think the over 50s will never get themselves over the line to cancel their license and rely on Prime/Netflix/ITV Player/Youtube etc... I wouldn’t be so sure.

The media coverage of the next uk election should be quite tasty, the way the beeb is going it will be an existential one for them.

Alistair said:

I do like the Quantum Trump voter

Simultaneously vastly more enthusiastic than a Biden voter, which you can tell by looking at the polling, yet simultaneously undetectable by polls due to shyness.

A true phenomena.

I'm skeptical about the "shy Trump voter", post-election analysis last time seemed to show that it was a very minor factor (if anything) in the polling errors.

But I could imagine those enthusiastically moronic Trump voters making the shy Trump voters even shyer?

dodrade said:

NHS bashing at the Republican Convention over Charlie Gard case won't go down well here.

It will have minimal if any impact

kamski said:

Alistair said:

I do like the Quantum Trump voter

Simultaneously vastly more enthusiastic than a Biden voter, which you can tell by looking at the polling, yet simultaneously undetectable by polls due to shyness.

A true phenomena.

I'm skeptical about the "shy Trump voter", post-election analysis last time seemed to show that it was a very minor factor (if anything) in the polling errors.

But I could imagine those enthusiastically moronic Trump voters making the shy Trump voters even shyer?

Any polling errors in national vote share were simply "margin of error" errors.

From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_2016_United_States_presidential_election

"Despite all this, however, nationwide polling was not far off from the actual popular vote result, and in fact very few states had results that deviated from the margin of error in the polling average. In a FiveThirtyEight article, Nate Silver defended the performance of the polls in 2016 as historically average, and argued that "Media organizations need to do a better job of informing their readers about the uncertainties associated with polling" [631]."

R4 Today - GOP strategist says their internal polling shows them doing as well as 2016.