It is not just Trump, his wife and children will be speaking too.
A few other senior Republicans like Nikki Haley tonight, Mike Pompeo and Rand Paul tomorrow, VP Pence on Wednesday and Rudy Giuliani on Thursday will be speaking as well.
I am also not so sure making the convention about him will work badly for him and well for Biden, as Kerry and Romney found out trying to win by not being the President does not work as well as actually voting for the President.
Candidates who beat incumbent Presidents like Reagan and Bill Clinton won by having strong and charismatic enough personalities to have voters vote for them, not just against the incumbent. Biden needs to do more than just wait for Trump to lose.
It is not just Trump, his wife and children will be speaking too.
A few other senior Republicans like Nikki Haley tonight, Mike Pompeo and Rand Paul tomorrow, VP Pence on Wednesday and Rudy Giuliani on Thursday will be speaking as well.
I am also not so sure making the convention about him will work badly for him and well for Biden, as Kerry and Romney found out trying to win by not being the President does not work as well as actually voting for the President.
Candidates who beat incumbent Presidents like Reagan and Bill Clinton won by having strong and charismatic enough personalities to have voters vote for them, not just against the incumbent. Biden needs to do more than just wait for Trump to lose.
It is not just Trump, his wife and children will be speaking too.
A few other senior Republicans like Nikki Haley tonight, Mike Pompeo and Rand Paul tomorrow, VP Pence on Wednesday and Rudy Giuliani on Thursday will be speaking as well.
I am also not so sure making the convention about him will work badly for him and well for Biden, as Kerry and Romney found out trying to win by not being the President does not work as well as actually voting for the President.
Candidates who beat incumbent Presidents like Reagan and Bill Clinton won by having strong and charismatic enough personalities to have voters vote for them, not just against the incumbent. Biden needs to do more than just wait for Trump to lose.
Presidents tend to get re-elected. The exceptions in the last 45 years are Carter, Bush Sr, and Ford.
Now, on charisma, Reagan beat out Carter, and Clinton beat Bush. But then again, Ford was a pretty charismatic guy, while Carter was not. So charisma isn't everything.
I think a more reliable indicator for change of control of the Presidency is serious recessions:
Ford had one. Carter had one. Bush Sr had one.
Bush Jr also had one and handed over to Obama. While Bush Jr benefits from Clinton hitting the end of the TMT bubble and the Year 2000 slowdown.
Now 2020 is a little different, because the US recession is not being blamed on Trump, but on CV19. On the other hand, people who lose their jobs blame the man in charge, however fair or unfair that is.
It is not just Trump, his wife and children will be speaking too.
A few other senior Republicans like Nikki Haley tonight, Mike Pompeo and Rand Paul tomorrow, VP Pence on Wednesday and Rudy Giuliani on Thursday will be speaking as well.
I am also not so sure making the convention about him will work badly for him and well for Biden, as Kerry and Romney found out trying to win by not being the President does not work as well as actually voting for the President.
Candidates who beat incumbent Presidents like Reagan and Bill Clinton won by having strong and charismatic enough personalities to have voters vote for them, not just against the incumbent. Biden needs to do more than just wait for Trump to lose.
Presidents tend to get re-elected. The exceptions in the last 45 years are Carter, Bush Sr, and Ford.
Now, on charisma, Reagan beat out Carter, and Clinton beat Bush. But then again, Ford was a pretty charismatic guy, while Carter was not. So charisma isn't everything.
I think a more reliable indicator for change of control of the Presidency is serious recessions:
Ford had one. Carter had one. Bush Sr had one.
Bush Jr also had one and handed over to Obama. While Bush Jr benefits from Clinton hitting the end of the TMT bubble and the Year 2000 slowdown.
Now 2020 is a little different, because the US recession is not being blamed on Trump, but on CV19. On the other hand, people who lose their jobs blame the man in charge, however fair or unfair that is.
Carter was arguably more charismatic than Ford but less so than Reagan.
If the economy alone was the factor Romney should probably have won in 2012
It is not just Trump, his wife and children will be speaking too.
A few other senior Republicans like Nikki Haley tonight, Mike Pompeo and Rand Paul tomorrow, VP Pence on Wednesday and Rudy Giuliani on Thursday will be speaking as well.
I am also not so sure making the convention about him will work badly for him and well for Biden, as Kerry and Romney found out trying to win by not being the President does not work as well as actually voting for the President.
Candidates who beat incumbent Presidents like Reagan and Bill Clinton won by having strong and charismatic enough personalities to have voters vote for them, not just against the incumbent. Biden needs to do more than just wait for Trump to lose.
Presidents tend to get re-elected. The exceptions in the last 45 years are Reagan, Bush Sr, and Ford.
Now, on charisma, Reagan beat out Carter, and Clinton beat Bush. But then again, Ford was a pretty charismatic guy, while Carter was not. So charisma isn't everything.
I think a more reliable indicator for change of control of the Presidency is serious recessions:
Ford had one. Carter had one. Bush Sr had one.
Bush Jr also had one and handed over to Obama. While Bush Jr benefits from Clinton hitting the end of the TMT bubble and the Year 2000 slowdown.
Now 2020 is a little different, because the US recession is not being blamed on Trump, but on CV19. On the other hand, people who lose their jobs blame the man in charge, however fair or unfair that is.
I think in this case, given the nature of the pandemic, there is also the question of "who is best to get out of this recession?". The Democrats have become associated with being the party of lockdown and Trump the one who wants to get the economy moving. For a lot of people struggling, the latter is likely to appeal more than the former.
Re the Presidents, I think HYFUD has a good point re the challenger needs to offer something rather than being "not the other guy".
On the previous one-term losers, Ford wasn't great (the old "can't walk and chew gum at the same time"), faced a serious challenge from Reagan in the selection process and, most of all, was in charge of a party that was seriously stained by Watergate.
As was posted on the previous thread, the issue of riots and concern over law and order is now starting to seep into US voters' minds as to which way to vote.
This is going to be the issue that will kill the Democrats. I'm sure we will have the usual "but it's not in the polls" argument but gun sales going through the roof tells you how scared many Americans are by what is happened at the moment. It is unlikely they will think Joe Biden is the person to fix the mess.
It is not just Trump, his wife and children will be speaking too.
A few other senior Republicans like Nikki Haley tonight, Mike Pompeo and Rand Paul tomorrow, VP Pence on Wednesday and Rudy Giuliani on Thursday will be speaking as well.
I am also not so sure making the convention about him will work badly for him and well for Biden, as Kerry and Romney found out trying to win by not being the President does not work as well as actually voting for the President.
Candidates who beat incumbent Presidents like Reagan and Bill Clinton won by having strong and charismatic enough personalities to have voters vote for them, not just against the incumbent. Biden needs to do more than just wait for Trump to lose.
Presidents tend to get re-elected. The exceptions in the last 45 years are Carter, Bush Sr, and Ford.
Now, on charisma, Reagan beat out Carter, and Clinton beat Bush. But then again, Ford was a pretty charismatic guy, while Carter was not. So charisma isn't everything.
I think a more reliable indicator for change of control of the Presidency is serious recessions:
Ford had one. Carter had one. Bush Sr had one.
Bush Jr also had one and handed over to Obama. While Bush Jr benefits from Clinton hitting the end of the TMT bubble and the Year 2000 slowdown.
Now 2020 is a little different, because the US recession is not being blamed on Trump, but on CV19. On the other hand, people who lose their jobs blame the man in charge, however fair or unfair that is.
1976, the US was just out of a painful two year recession and the incumbent party lost.
1980, the US was in recession and the incumbent party lost.
1984, the US registered 7% GDP growth, and the incumbent party swept the board.
1988, fourth year of c. 4% GDP growth in a row, incumbent party re-elected.
1992, US just leaving an 18 month recession, and the incumbent party lost.
1996, fourth year of c. 4% GDP growth in a row, incumbent party re-elected.
2000, bursting of the TMT bubble, and US economy slowing sharply at time of election, and the incumbent party lost (just).
2004, US economic growth back up to almost 4%, incumbent party re-elected.
2008, Global Financial Crisis and recession, and the incumbent party lost.
2012, economic recovery, and incumbent re-elected.
2016, economic growth slowed to just 1.6% (the slowest since the 2008/9 GFC), and the incumbent party lost.
I could be wrong, but it seems that good economic news is good for the incumbents, and vice versa. This also suggests Trump would probably have walked it, if not for CV19.
It is not just Trump, his wife and children will be speaking too.
A few other senior Republicans like Nikki Haley tonight, Mike Pompeo and Rand Paul tomorrow, VP Pence on Wednesday and Rudy Giuliani on Thursday will be speaking as well.
I am also not so sure making the convention about him will work badly for him and well for Biden, as Kerry and Romney found out trying to win by not being the President does not work as well as actually voting for the President.
Candidates who beat incumbent Presidents like Reagan and Bill Clinton won by having strong and charismatic enough personalities to have voters vote for them, not just against the incumbent. Biden needs to do more than just wait for Trump to lose.
Presidents tend to get re-elected. The exceptions in the last 45 years are Carter, Bush Sr, and Ford.
Now, on charisma, Reagan beat out Carter, and Clinton beat Bush. But then again, Ford was a pretty charismatic guy, while Carter was not. So charisma isn't everything.
I think a more reliable indicator for change of control of the Presidency is serious recessions:
Ford had one. Carter had one. Bush Sr had one.
Bush Jr also had one and handed over to Obama. While Bush Jr benefits from Clinton hitting the end of the TMT bubble and the Year 2000 slowdown.
Now 2020 is a little different, because the US recession is not being blamed on Trump, but on CV19. On the other hand, people who lose their jobs blame the man in charge, however fair or unfair that is.
Carter was arguably more charismatic than Ford but less so than Reagan.
If the economy alone was the factor Romney should probably have won in 2012
Romney got a greater proportion of the electorate to vote for him than Trump did.
Received some sad news tonight that a friend's brother has been killed in a climbing accident in Scotland, only met him once or twice but taken too soon and shows the natural world can be both beautiful and dangerous
As was posted on the previous thread, the issue of riots and concern over law and order is now starting to seep into US voters' minds as to which way to vote.
This is going to be the issue that will kill the Democrats. I'm sure we will have the usual "but it's not in the polls" argument but gun sales going through the roof tells you how scared many Americans are by what is happened at the moment. It is unlikely they will think Joe Biden is the person to fix the mess.
72 days.
That's how long is left.
And Biden continues to average over 50% in the polls. Which Clinton never did.
Now. It's entirely possible the polls are wrong. And it's possible that this issue of law and order will completely dominate the election. And I totally buy that Trump voters are more enthused.
The problem is that Trump should be closing the gap. He's not. Indeed, the polls seem to be worsening for him. And the economic news is not good. New unemployment claims were back at almost a million last week, that's a sharp reversal of previous progress.
Can I see Trump winning? Of course I can.
But while I thought he was value at 30% a month ago, he's now above 40%, when his polling position has worsened.
Law and order may be his way back. But it's a stretch. It's a lot easier to run on a "all is anarchy, you need me to get order" when you're the challenger than when you're the incumbent.
It is not just Trump, his wife and children will be speaking too.
A few other senior Republicans like Nikki Haley tonight, Mike Pompeo and Rand Paul tomorrow, VP Pence on Wednesday and Rudy Giuliani on Thursday will be speaking as well.
I am also not so sure making the convention about him will work badly for him and well for Biden, as Kerry and Romney found out trying to win by not being the President does not work as well as actually voting for the President.
Candidates who beat incumbent Presidents like Reagan and Bill Clinton won by having strong and charismatic enough personalities to have voters vote for them, not just against the incumbent. Biden needs to do more than just wait for Trump to lose.
Presidents tend to get re-elected. The exceptions in the last 45 years are Carter, Bush Sr, and Ford.
Now, on charisma, Reagan beat out Carter, and Clinton beat Bush. But then again, Ford was a pretty charismatic guy, while Carter was not. So charisma isn't everything.
I think a more reliable indicator for change of control of the Presidency is serious recessions:
Ford had one. Carter had one. Bush Sr had one.
Bush Jr also had one and handed over to Obama. While Bush Jr benefits from Clinton hitting the end of the TMT bubble and the Year 2000 slowdown.
Now 2020 is a little different, because the US recession is not being blamed on Trump, but on CV19. On the other hand, people who lose their jobs blame the man in charge, however fair or unfair that is.
Carter was arguably more charismatic than Ford but less so than Reagan.
If the economy alone was the factor Romney should probably have won in 2012
Romney got a greater proportion of the electorate to vote for him than Trump did.
As was posted on the previous thread, the issue of riots and concern over law and order is now starting to seep into US voters' minds as to which way to vote.
This is going to be the issue that will kill the Democrats. I'm sure we will have the usual "but it's not in the polls" argument but gun sales going through the roof tells you how scared many Americans are by what is happened at the moment. It is unlikely they will think Joe Biden is the person to fix the mess.
72 days.
That's how long is left.
And Biden continues to average over 50% in the polls. Which Clinton never did.
Now. It's entirely possible the polls are wrong. And it's possible that this issue of law and order will completely dominate the election. And I totally buy that Trump voters are more enthused.
The problem is that Trump should be closing the gap. He's not. Indeed, the polls seem to be worsening for him. And the economic news is not good. New unemployment claims were back at almost a million last week, that's a sharp reversal of previous progress.
Can I see Trump winning? Of course I can.
But while I thought he was value at 30% a month ago, he's now above 40%, when his polling position has worsened.
Law and order may be his way back. But it's a stretch. It's a lot easier to run on a "all is anarchy, you need me to get order" when you're the challenger than when you're the incumbent.
It is not just Trump, his wife and children will be speaking too.
A few other senior Republicans like Nikki Haley tonight, Mike Pompeo and Rand Paul tomorrow, VP Pence on Wednesday and Rudy Giuliani on Thursday will be speaking as well.
I am also not so sure making the convention about him will work badly for him and well for Biden, as Kerry and Romney found out trying to win by not being the President does not work as well as actually voting for the President.
Candidates who beat incumbent Presidents like Reagan and Bill Clinton won by having strong and charismatic enough personalities to have voters vote for them, not just against the incumbent. Biden needs to do more than just wait for Trump to lose.
Presidents tend to get re-elected. The exceptions in the last 45 years are Carter, Bush Sr, and Ford.
Now, on charisma, Reagan beat out Carter, and Clinton beat Bush. But then again, Ford was a pretty charismatic guy, while Carter was not. So charisma isn't everything.
I think a more reliable indicator for change of control of the Presidency is serious recessions:
Ford had one. Carter had one. Bush Sr had one.
Bush Jr also had one and handed over to Obama. While Bush Jr benefits from Clinton hitting the end of the TMT bubble and the Year 2000 slowdown.
Now 2020 is a little different, because the US recession is not being blamed on Trump, but on CV19. On the other hand, people who lose their jobs blame the man in charge, however fair or unfair that is.
Carter was arguably more charismatic than Ford but less so than Reagan.
If the economy alone was the factor Romney should probably have won in 2012
Romney got a greater proportion of the electorate to vote for him than Trump did.
But not in the key states where it mattered
Sure, but I think it's important to remember that Romney beat Trump, in terms of getting people out to vote for him.
It is not just Trump, his wife and children will be speaking too.
A few other senior Republicans like Nikki Haley tonight, Mike Pompeo and Rand Paul tomorrow, VP Pence on Wednesday and Rudy Giuliani on Thursday will be speaking as well.
I am also not so sure making the convention about him will work badly for him and well for Biden, as Kerry and Romney found out trying to win by not being the President does not work as well as actually voting for the President.
Candidates who beat incumbent Presidents like Reagan and Bill Clinton won by having strong and charismatic enough personalities to have voters vote for them, not just against the incumbent. Biden needs to do more than just wait for Trump to lose.
Presidents tend to get re-elected. The exceptions in the last 45 years are Carter, Bush Sr, and Ford.
Now, on charisma, Reagan beat out Carter, and Clinton beat Bush. But then again, Ford was a pretty charismatic guy, while Carter was not. So charisma isn't everything.
I think a more reliable indicator for change of control of the Presidency is serious recessions:
Ford had one. Carter had one. Bush Sr had one.
Bush Jr also had one and handed over to Obama. While Bush Jr benefits from Clinton hitting the end of the TMT bubble and the Year 2000 slowdown.
Now 2020 is a little different, because the US recession is not being blamed on Trump, but on CV19. On the other hand, people who lose their jobs blame the man in charge, however fair or unfair that is.
Carter was arguably more charismatic than Ford but less so than Reagan.
If the economy alone was the factor Romney should probably have won in 2012
Romney got a greater proportion of the electorate to vote for him than Trump did.
But not in the key states where it mattered
Sure, but I think it's important to remember that Romney beat Trump, in terms of getting people out to vote for him.
Romney got 60 million votes in 2012, Trump got 62 million in 2016
What is notable about Trump is that he performs worse by comparison with past presidents when using disapproval ratings than when using approval ratings. His present disapproval rating is on a par with Carter and HW Bush, that is as bad or worse than any postwar president at this stage of the electoral cycle. Using approval ratings he is still doing marginally better than Carter and HW Bush, although not by much.
The man is basically reviled by much of the electorate to an unprecedented degree. The more exposure he's given the more it just serves to remind those who revile him that they really have to vote to get rid of him by supporting no-one else but Biden. That will be a bigger spur to enthuse the Sanders supporters to vote for Biden than anything that Biden could himself say to try and persuade them.
It is not just Trump, his wife and children will be speaking too.
A few other senior Republicans like Nikki Haley tonight, Mike Pompeo and Rand Paul tomorrow, VP Pence on Wednesday and Rudy Giuliani on Thursday will be speaking as well.
I am also not so sure making the convention about him will work badly for him and well for Biden, as Kerry and Romney found out trying to win by not being the President does not work as well as actually voting for the President.
Candidates who beat incumbent Presidents like Reagan and Bill Clinton won by having strong and charismatic enough personalities to have voters vote for them, not just against the incumbent. Biden needs to do more than just wait for Trump to lose.
Presidents tend to get re-elected. The exceptions in the last 45 years are Carter, Bush Sr, and Ford.
Now, on charisma, Reagan beat out Carter, and Clinton beat Bush. But then again, Ford was a pretty charismatic guy, while Carter was not. So charisma isn't everything.
I think a more reliable indicator for change of control of the Presidency is serious recessions:
Ford had one. Carter had one. Bush Sr had one.
Bush Jr also had one and handed over to Obama. While Bush Jr benefits from Clinton hitting the end of the TMT bubble and the Year 2000 slowdown.
Now 2020 is a little different, because the US recession is not being blamed on Trump, but on CV19. On the other hand, people who lose their jobs blame the man in charge, however fair or unfair that is.
Carter was arguably more charismatic than Ford but less so than Reagan.
If the economy alone was the factor Romney should probably have won in 2012
Romney got a greater proportion of the electorate to vote for him than Trump did.
But not in the key states where it mattered
Sure, but I think it's important to remember that Romney beat Trump, in terms of getting people out to vote for him.
Romney got 60 million votes in 2012, Trump got 62 million in 2016
Correct, Trump got a smaller share of the population to vote for him.
Let's look at average Augusts polling positions for whoever won the popular vote at the General. I will start post-Clinton, because Ross Perot meant everyone got very low shares.
2000: Gore averaged 44%
2004: Bush averaged 48%
2008: Obama averaged 47%
2012: Obama averaged 46%
2016: Clinton averaged 45%
Joe Biden is averaging over 50% in the poll of polls.
It is not just Trump, his wife and children will be speaking too.
A few other senior Republicans like Nikki Haley tonight, Mike Pompeo and Rand Paul tomorrow, VP Pence on Wednesday and Rudy Giuliani on Thursday will be speaking as well.
I am also not so sure making the convention about him will work badly for him and well for Biden, as Kerry and Romney found out trying to win by not being the President does not work as well as actually voting for the President.
Candidates who beat incumbent Presidents like Reagan and Bill Clinton won by having strong and charismatic enough personalities to have voters vote for them, not just against the incumbent. Biden needs to do more than just wait for Trump to lose.
Presidents tend to get re-elected. The exceptions in the last 45 years are Carter, Bush Sr, and Ford.
Now, on charisma, Reagan beat out Carter, and Clinton beat Bush. But then again, Ford was a pretty charismatic guy, while Carter was not. So charisma isn't everything.
I think a more reliable indicator for change of control of the Presidency is serious recessions:
Ford had one. Carter had one. Bush Sr had one.
Bush Jr also had one and handed over to Obama. While Bush Jr benefits from Clinton hitting the end of the TMT bubble and the Year 2000 slowdown.
Now 2020 is a little different, because the US recession is not being blamed on Trump, but on CV19. On the other hand, people who lose their jobs blame the man in charge, however fair or unfair that is.
Carter was arguably more charismatic than Ford but less so than Reagan.
If the economy alone was the factor Romney should probably have won in 2012
Romney got a greater proportion of the electorate to vote for him than Trump did.
But not in the key states where it mattered
Sure, but I think it's important to remember that Romney beat Trump, in terms of getting people out to vote for him.
Romney got 60 million votes in 2012, Trump got 62 million in 2016
As was posted on the previous thread, the issue of riots and concern over law and order is now starting to seep into US voters' minds as to which way to vote.
This is going to be the issue that will kill the Democrats. I'm sure we will have the usual "but it's not in the polls" argument but gun sales going through the roof tells you how scared many Americans are by what is happened at the moment. It is unlikely they will think Joe Biden is the person to fix the mess.
72 days.
That's how long is left.
And Biden continues to average over 50% in the polls. Which Clinton never did.
Now. It's entirely possible the polls are wrong. And it's possible that this issue of law and order will completely dominate the election. And I totally buy that Trump voters are more enthused.
The problem is that Trump should be closing the gap. He's not. Indeed, the polls seem to be worsening for him. And the economic news is not good. New unemployment claims were back at almost a million last week, that's a sharp reversal of previous progress.
Can I see Trump winning? Of course I can.
But while I thought he was value at 30% a month ago, he's now above 40%, when his polling position has worsened.
Law and order may be his way back. But it's a stretch. It's a lot easier to run on a "all is anarchy, you need me to get order" when you're the challenger than when you're the incumbent.
As was posted on the previous thread, the issue of riots and concern over law and order is now starting to seep into US voters' minds as to which way to vote.
This is going to be the issue that will kill the Democrats. I'm sure we will have the usual "but it's not in the polls" argument but gun sales going through the roof tells you how scared many Americans are by what is happened at the moment. It is unlikely they will think Joe Biden is the person to fix the mess.
72 days.
That's how long is left.
And Biden continues to average over 50% in the polls. Which Clinton never did.
Now. It's entirely possible the polls are wrong. And it's possible that this issue of law and order will completely dominate the election. And I totally buy that Trump voters are more enthused.
The problem is that Trump should be closing the gap. He's not. Indeed, the polls seem to be worsening for him. And the economic news is not good. New unemployment claims were back at almost a million last week, that's a sharp reversal of previous progress.
Can I see Trump winning? Of course I can.
But while I thought he was value at 30% a month ago, he's now above 40%, when his polling position has worsened.
Law and order may be his way back. But it's a stretch. It's a lot easier to run on a "all is anarchy, you need me to get order" when you're the challenger than when you're the incumbent.
I think Sunak needs Boris to go for a Boris-related reason, like his health, and not because of policy or Covid-19 response because the latter would most likely take Sunak down with him. Since Boris has spent most of the last three months on holiday with an occasional photo op, it is hard to assess how he is.
So yes, if Boris resigns this week, 9/2 against Sunak is terrific value but he probably won't.
As was posted on the previous thread, the issue of riots and concern over law and order is now starting to seep into US voters' minds as to which way to vote.
This is going to be the issue that will kill the Democrats. I'm sure we will have the usual "but it's not in the polls" argument but gun sales going through the roof tells you how scared many Americans are by what is happened at the moment. It is unlikely they will think Joe Biden is the person to fix the mess.
I also suspect an expression of that fear is not admitting in public - even to pollsters - that they put their faith in Trump to be the guy to best look after them. Sure, Trump is an idiot. But he's their idiot....
As was posted on the previous thread, the issue of riots and concern over law and order is now starting to seep into US voters' minds as to which way to vote.
This is going to be the issue that will kill the Democrats. I'm sure we will have the usual "but it's not in the polls" argument but gun sales going through the roof tells you how scared many Americans are by what is happened at the moment. It is unlikely they will think Joe Biden is the person to fix the mess.
I also suspect an expression of that fear is not admitting in public - even to pollsters - that they put their faith in Trump to be the guy to best look after them. Sure, Trump is an idiot. But he's their idiot....
It's just not something you admit to.
I mean people were shy about voting for John Major. He's got nothing on Trump
As was posted on the previous thread, the issue of riots and concern over law and order is now starting to seep into US voters' minds as to which way to vote.
This is going to be the issue that will kill the Democrats. I'm sure we will have the usual "but it's not in the polls" argument but gun sales going through the roof tells you how scared many Americans are by what is happened at the moment. It is unlikely they will think Joe Biden is the person to fix the mess.
I also suspect an expression of that fear is not admitting in public - even to pollsters - that they put their faith in Trump to be the guy to best look after them. Sure, Trump is an idiot. But he's their idiot....
It's just not something you admit to.
I mean people were shy about voting for John Major. He's got nothing on Trump
Boris is the British Trump, both in terms of charisma and casual disregard for rules and norms. I imagine Labour and Conservative Party workers will be closely examining this campaign for that reason (and not just because they always do).
As was posted on the previous thread, the issue of riots and concern over law and order is now starting to seep into US voters' minds as to which way to vote.
This is going to be the issue that will kill the Democrats. I'm sure we will have the usual "but it's not in the polls" argument but gun sales going through the roof tells you how scared many Americans are by what is happened at the moment. It is unlikely they will think Joe Biden is the person to fix the mess.
I also suspect an expression of that fear is not admitting in public - even to pollsters - that they put their faith in Trump to be the guy to best look after them. Sure, Trump is an idiot. But he's their idiot....
It's just not something you admit to.
I mean people were shy about voting for John Major. He's got nothing on Trump
Well Biden is the American Kinnock. When he start's shouting "we're alriiiiiiiiiight", we'll know Trump's won.
As was posted on the previous thread, the issue of riots and concern over law and order is now starting to seep into US voters' minds as to which way to vote.
This is going to be the issue that will kill the Democrats. I'm sure we will have the usual "but it's not in the polls" argument but gun sales going through the roof tells you how scared many Americans are by what is happened at the moment. It is unlikely they will think Joe Biden is the person to fix the mess.
I also suspect an expression of that fear is not admitting in public - even to pollsters - that they put their faith in Trump to be the guy to best look after them. Sure, Trump is an idiot. But he's their idiot....
It's just not something you admit to.
I mean people were shy about voting for John Major. He's got nothing on Trump
Boris is the British Trump, both in terms of charisma and casual disregard for rules and norms. I imagine Labour and Conservative Party workers will be closely examining this campaign for that reason (and not just because they always do).
Not even close. True there are some parallels, but while Johnson shares the narcissism, it’s not combined with the same raging egomania or megalomania.
USA President betting -- Betfair to settle on the election not the inauguration!
Democrats: 1.72 Republicans: 2.36
Joe Biden: 1.79 (still worried he might withdraw?) Donald Trump: 2.34 (and how is Trump shorter than the Republicans?) Kamala Harris: 130 Hillary Clinton: 290 Mike Pence: 300 Michelle Obama: 900
(and it would not be Betfair if you can't lay Michelle Obama and Hillary Clinton!)
As was posted on the previous thread, the issue of riots and concern over law and order is now starting to seep into US voters' minds as to which way to vote.
This is going to be the issue that will kill the Democrats. I'm sure we will have the usual "but it's not in the polls" argument but gun sales going through the roof tells you how scared many Americans are by what is happened at the moment. It is unlikely they will think Joe Biden is the person to fix the mess.
I also suspect an expression of that fear is not admitting in public - even to pollsters - that they put their faith in Trump to be the guy to best look after them. Sure, Trump is an idiot. But he's their idiot....
It's just not something you admit to.
I mean people were shy about voting for John Major. He's got nothing on Trump
Boris is the British Trump, both in terms of charisma and casual disregard for rules and norms. I imagine Labour and Conservative Party workers will be closely examining this campaign for that reason (and not just because they always do).
Not even close. True there are some parallels, but while Johnson shares the narcissism, it’s not combined with the same raging egomania or megalomania.
Johnson has limits; Trump has none.
Really? How about the combined entity, Boris plus Cummings?
As was posted on the previous thread, the issue of riots and concern over law and order is now starting to seep into US voters' minds as to which way to vote.
This is going to be the issue that will kill the Democrats. I'm sure we will have the usual "but it's not in the polls" argument but gun sales going through the roof tells you how scared many Americans are by what is happened at the moment. It is unlikely they will think Joe Biden is the person to fix the mess.
I also suspect an expression of that fear is not admitting in public - even to pollsters - that they put their faith in Trump to be the guy to best look after them. Sure, Trump is an idiot. But he's their idiot....
It's just not something you admit to.
I mean people were shy about voting for John Major. He's got nothing on Trump
Boris is the British Trump, both in terms of charisma and casual disregard for rules and norms. I imagine Labour and Conservative Party workers will be closely examining this campaign for that reason (and not just because they always do).
As was posted on the previous thread, the issue of riots and concern over law and order is now starting to seep into US voters' minds as to which way to vote.
This is going to be the issue that will kill the Democrats. I'm sure we will have the usual "but it's not in the polls" argument but gun sales going through the roof tells you how scared many Americans are by what is happened at the moment. It is unlikely they will think Joe Biden is the person to fix the mess.
I also suspect an expression of that fear is not admitting in public - even to pollsters - that they put their faith in Trump to be the guy to best look after them. Sure, Trump is an idiot. But he's their idiot....
It's just not something you admit to.
I mean people were shy about voting for John Major. He's got nothing on Trump
Well Biden is the American Kinnock. When he start's shouting "we're alriiiiiiiiiight", we'll know Trump's won.
You refer to Biden plagiarising Kinnock's speech but the parallel here is not quite right. Kinnock had policies by the bucket-load. Look at the end of OGH's header and turn the criticism the other way. Biden is relying on not being Trump. There is almost nothing else there.
As was posted on the previous thread, the issue of riots and concern over law and order is now starting to seep into US voters' minds as to which way to vote.
This is going to be the issue that will kill the Democrats. I'm sure we will have the usual "but it's not in the polls" argument but gun sales going through the roof tells you how scared many Americans are by what is happened at the moment. It is unlikely they will think Joe Biden is the person to fix the mess.
I also suspect an expression of that fear is not admitting in public - even to pollsters - that they put their faith in Trump to be the guy to best look after them. Sure, Trump is an idiot. But he's their idiot....
It's just not something you admit to.
I mean people were shy about voting for John Major. He's got nothing on Trump
Boris is the British Trump, both in terms of charisma and casual disregard for rules and norms. I imagine Labour and Conservative Party workers will be closely examining this campaign for that reason (and not just because they always do).
I don't buy that for a second.
Don't buy what? That parties routinely send helpers to America?
That Boris and Trump are both charismatic? They both were known for television work; each has several families (surely proof of great personal charm); they even have distinctive hair.
Or the disregard for conventions, like being interviewed during election campaigns, or not telling blatant lies? Their behaviour caused the departure of previous loyalists. They have even both been stopped by their countries' respective Supreme Courts.
Trump's detractors still don't understand him, after 4 years.
Unfortunately for the President, a lot of independents now do.
The wildly unrepresentative handful of Americans I know are absolutely going to vote Biden to get rid of Trump. Their minds are completely made up I can't conceive of anything that would change them. The bad news for Trump is that some of them are people who have been apolitical or antipolitical as long as I have known them, and haven't voted for many election cycles. I can't imagine opinion polls picking them up. I wouldn't be surprised if the polls end up underestimating Biden's lead, though it could go either way, obviously.
Polls have been indicating for a while that most people made up their minds a long time ago about Trump, and the majority are against. Even a booming economy wouldn't make him favorite imo.
Trump's detractors still don't understand him, after 4 years.
Unfortunately for the President, a lot of independents now do.
The wildly unrepresentative handful of Americans I know are absolutely going to vote Biden to get rid of Trump. Their minds are completely made up I can't conceive of anything that would change them. The bad news for Trump is that some of them are people who have been apolitical or antipolitical as long as I have known them, and haven't voted for many election cycles. I can't imagine opinion polls picking them up. I wouldn't be surprised if the polls end up underestimating Biden's lead, though it could go either way, obviously.
Polls have been indicating for a while that most people made up their minds a long time ago about Trump, and the majority are against. Even a booming economy wouldn't make him favorite imo.
As a matter of anecdotal interest, which states ? The one I know are Californian, so not ideal barometers of opinion.
Trump's detractors still don't understand him, after 4 years.
Unfortunately for the President, a lot of independents now do.
The wildly unrepresentative handful of Americans I know are absolutely going to vote Biden to get rid of Trump. Their minds are completely made up I can't conceive of anything that would change them. The bad news for Trump is that some of them are people who have been apolitical or antipolitical as long as I have known them, and haven't voted for many election cycles. I can't imagine opinion polls picking them up. I wouldn't be surprised if the polls end up underestimating Biden's lead, though it could go either way, obviously.
Polls have been indicating for a while that most people made up their minds a long time ago about Trump, and the majority are against. Even a booming economy wouldn't make him favorite imo.
As a matter of anecdotal interest, which states ? The one I know are Californian, so not ideal barometers of opinion.
Because Californians would never vote for some guy just because they'd seen him on the telly and were star-struck? Reagan, Arnie, now Trump.
Trump's detractors still don't understand him, after 4 years.
Unfortunately for the President, a lot of independents now do.
The wildly unrepresentative handful of Americans I know are absolutely going to vote Biden to get rid of Trump. Their minds are completely made up I can't conceive of anything that would change them. The bad news for Trump is that some of them are people who have been apolitical or antipolitical as long as I have known them, and haven't voted for many election cycles. I can't imagine opinion polls picking them up. I wouldn't be surprised if the polls end up underestimating Biden's lead, though it could go either way, obviously.
Polls have been indicating for a while that most people made up their minds a long time ago about Trump, and the majority are against. Even a booming economy wouldn't make him favorite imo.
As a matter of anecdotal interest, which states ? The one I know are Californian, so not ideal barometers of opinion.
Because Californians would never vote for some guy just because they'd seen him on the telly and were star-struck? Reagan, Arnie, now Trump.
This is a very interesting technology, which will turbocharge Moore’s Law for a decade.
Optical Compute Promises Game-Changing AI Performance https://www.eetimes.com/optical-compute-promises-game-changing-ai-performance/ We could take existing AI data centers and reduce the energy consumption by a factor of 20 and shrink the physical footprint by a factor of five,” Harris said. “And that’s just with the first generation of what we’re building. There’s a long road map ahead.”
While Harris emphasized that this test chip has been built as a demonstrator for the technology, and not to do well on benchmarks, he was adamant that in a practical application Lightmatter’s demonstrator would still beat the market leader for AI acceleration, Nvidia’s Ampere A100. Harris said that compared to the A100, Lightmatter’s chip offers 20 times the energy efficiency and at least five times the throughput on workloads like BERT and Resnet-50 inference....
As was posted on the previous thread, the issue of riots and concern over law and order is now starting to seep into US voters' minds as to which way to vote.
This is going to be the issue that will kill the Democrats. I'm sure we will have the usual "but it's not in the polls" argument but gun sales going through the roof tells you how scared many Americans are by what is happened at the moment. It is unlikely they will think Joe Biden is the person to fix the mess.
I also suspect an expression of that fear is not admitting in public - even to pollsters - that they put their faith in Trump to be the guy to best look after them. Sure, Trump is an idiot. But he's their idiot....
It's just not something you admit to.
I mean people were shy about voting for John Major. He's got nothing on Trump
Boris is the British Trump, both in terms of charisma and casual disregard for rules and norms. I imagine Labour and Conservative Party workers will be closely examining this campaign for that reason (and not just because they always do).
Not even close. True there are some parallels, but while Johnson shares the narcissism, it’s not combined with the same raging egomania or megalomania.
Johnson has limits; Trump has none.
Difference is that Johnson is not just as sneaky or sly as Trump, Trump is cunning whereas Bozo is not nearly as sharp. Both cheeks of the same arse though. PS: Hence why Bozo needs a sewer rat like Cummings pulling his strings
As was posted on the previous thread, the issue of riots and concern over law and order is now starting to seep into US voters' minds as to which way to vote.
This is going to be the issue that will kill the Democrats. I'm sure we will have the usual "but it's not in the polls" argument but gun sales going through the roof tells you how scared many Americans are by what is happened at the moment. It is unlikely they will think Joe Biden is the person to fix the mess.
I also suspect an expression of that fear is not admitting in public - even to pollsters - that they put their faith in Trump to be the guy to best look after them. Sure, Trump is an idiot. But he's their idiot....
It's just not something you admit to.
I really get the emotional appeal of Trump - that's he's standing up for Americans (and a way of life) that has been ignored by both parties and the coastal elites and their love of immigration and gloablisation and all that.
But.
Ultimately, the system matters more than the person. (If history has taught us one thing, it's that in the long run it's better to have a good system, than a great person.) And Trump is proving himself to be a danger to the American system - by which I mean the system of checks and balances, the separation of powers, and the system of democracy.
As was posted on the previous thread, the issue of riots and concern over law and order is now starting to seep into US voters' minds as to which way to vote.
This is going to be the issue that will kill the Democrats. I'm sure we will have the usual "but it's not in the polls" argument but gun sales going through the roof tells you how scared many Americans are by what is happened at the moment. It is unlikely they will think Joe Biden is the person to fix the mess.
I also suspect an expression of that fear is not admitting in public - even to pollsters - that they put their faith in Trump to be the guy to best look after them. Sure, Trump is an idiot. But he's their idiot....
It's just not something you admit to.
I mean people were shy about voting for John Major. He's got nothing on Trump
I don't think voters were shy about supporting John Major, but they were embarrased to admit that they supported the Conservatives. The Conservative Party name was toxic in much of England and the whole of Scotland throughout the 90's.
As was posted on the previous thread, the issue of riots and concern over law and order is now starting to seep into US voters' minds as to which way to vote.
This is going to be the issue that will kill the Democrats. I'm sure we will have the usual "but it's not in the polls" argument but gun sales going through the roof tells you how scared many Americans are by what is happened at the moment. It is unlikely they will think Joe Biden is the person to fix the mess.
I also suspect an expression of that fear is not admitting in public - even to pollsters - that they put their faith in Trump to be the guy to best look after them. Sure, Trump is an idiot. But he's their idiot....
It's just not something you admit to.
I mean people were shy about voting for John Major. He's got nothing on Trump
Boris is the British Trump, both in terms of charisma and casual disregard for rules and norms. I imagine Labour and Conservative Party workers will be closely examining this campaign for that reason (and not just because they always do).
Not even close. True there are some parallels, but while Johnson shares the narcissism, it’s not combined with the same raging egomania or megalomania.
Johnson has limits; Trump has none.
Difference is that Johnson is not just as sneaky or sly as Trump, Trump is cunning whereas Bozo is not nearly as sharp. Both cheeks of the same arse though. PS: Hence why Bozo needs a sewer rat like Cummings pulling his strings
Is Trump cunning? He seems like a bull in a china shop to me, and relies on the support of those around him for the cunning. But I do realise that someone good at cunning does not let on how cunning they are.
Trump's detractors still don't understand him, after 4 years.
Unfortunately for the President, a lot of independents now do.
The wildly unrepresentative handful of Americans I know are absolutely going to vote Biden to get rid of Trump. Their minds are completely made up I can't conceive of anything that would change them. The bad news for Trump is that some of them are people who have been apolitical or antipolitical as long as I have known them, and haven't voted for many election cycles. I can't imagine opinion polls picking them up. I wouldn't be surprised if the polls end up underestimating Biden's lead, though it could go either way, obviously.
Polls have been indicating for a while that most people made up their minds a long time ago about Trump, and the majority are against. Even a booming economy wouldn't make him favorite imo.
As a matter of anecdotal interest, which states ? The one I know are Californian, so not ideal barometers of opinion.
Because Californians would never vote for some guy just because they'd seen him on the telly and were star-struck? Reagan, Arnie, now Trump.
Do you really think that California might vote Republican in November???
Simultaneously vastly more enthusiastic than a Biden voter, which you can tell by looking at the polling, yet simultaneously undetectable by polls due to shyness.
As was posted on the previous thread, the issue of riots and concern over law and order is now starting to seep into US voters' minds as to which way to vote.
This is going to be the issue that will kill the Democrats. I'm sure we will have the usual "but it's not in the polls" argument but gun sales going through the roof tells you how scared many Americans are by what is happened at the moment. It is unlikely they will think Joe Biden is the person to fix the mess.
I also suspect an expression of that fear is not admitting in public - even to pollsters - that they put their faith in Trump to be the guy to best look after them. Sure, Trump is an idiot. But he's their idiot....
It's just not something you admit to.
I mean people were shy about voting for John Major. He's got nothing on Trump
Boris is the British Trump, both in terms of charisma and casual disregard for rules and norms. I imagine Labour and Conservative Party workers will be closely examining this campaign for that reason (and not just because they always do).
Not even close. True there are some parallels, but while Johnson shares the narcissism, it’s not combined with the same raging egomania or megalomania.
Johnson has limits; Trump has none.
Really? How about the combined entity, Boris plus Cummings?
A dialog "you are all too stupid and enmeshed in your liberal elite views to understamnd why Trump is so phenomenally popular which is why he won the election over the hugely unpopular Hilary Clinton" "Trump got 3 million less votes than Clinton" "Ah, I'm talking about his appeal to the White Working Classes which you would never understand with your Liberal elite views. His huge popularity with the WWC is why he won rust belt states like Wisconsin the like of which Romney could never reach" "Trump got less votes than Romney in Wisconsin" "You'll never understand Trump"
Trump's detractors still don't understand him, after 4 years.
Unfortunately for the President, a lot of independents now do.
The wildly unrepresentative handful of Americans I know are absolutely going to vote Biden to get rid of Trump. Their minds are completely made up I can't conceive of anything that would change them. The bad news for Trump is that some of them are people who have been apolitical or antipolitical as long as I have known them, and haven't voted for many election cycles. I can't imagine opinion polls picking them up. I wouldn't be surprised if the polls end up underestimating Biden's lead, though it could go either way, obviously.
Polls have been indicating for a while that most people made up their minds a long time ago about Trump, and the majority are against. Even a booming economy wouldn't make him favorite imo.
As a matter of anecdotal interest, which states ? The one I know are Californian, so not ideal barometers of opinion.
Because Californians would never vote for some guy just because they'd seen him on the telly and were star-struck? Reagan, Arnie, now Trump.
Arnie is a Republican but intelligent and not an anti-science climate change denier (quite the opposite).
Trump's detractors still don't understand him, after 4 years.
Unfortunately for the President, a lot of independents now do.
The wildly unrepresentative handful of Americans I know are absolutely going to vote Biden to get rid of Trump. Their minds are completely made up I can't conceive of anything that would change them. The bad news for Trump is that some of them are people who have been apolitical or antipolitical as long as I have known them, and haven't voted for many election cycles. I can't imagine opinion polls picking them up. I wouldn't be surprised if the polls end up underestimating Biden's lead, though it could go either way, obviously.
Polls have been indicating for a while that most people made up their minds a long time ago about Trump, and the majority are against. Even a booming economy wouldn't make him favorite imo.
As a matter of anecdotal interest, which states ? The one I know are Californian, so not ideal barometers of opinion.
Because Californians would never vote for some guy just because they'd seen him on the telly and were star-struck? Reagan, Arnie, now Trump.
Arnie is a Republican but intelligent and not an anti-science climate change denier (quite the opposite).
It is not just Trump, his wife and children will be speaking too.
A few other senior Republicans like Nikki Haley tonight, Mike Pompeo and Rand Paul tomorrow, VP Pence on Wednesday and Rudy Giuliani on Thursday will be speaking as well.
I am also not so sure making the convention about him will work badly for him and well for Biden, as Kerry and Romney found out trying to win by not being the President does not work as well as actually voting for the President.
Candidates who beat incumbent Presidents like Reagan and Bill Clinton won by having strong and charismatic enough personalities to have voters vote for them, not just against the incumbent. Biden needs to do more than just wait for Trump to lose.
Presidents tend to get re-elected. The exceptions in the last 45 years are Carter, Bush Sr, and Ford.
Now, on charisma, Reagan beat out Carter, and Clinton beat Bush. But then again, Ford was a pretty charismatic guy, while Carter was not. So charisma isn't everything.
I think a more reliable indicator for change of control of the Presidency is serious recessions:
Ford had one. Carter had one. Bush Sr had one.
Bush Jr also had one and handed over to Obama. While Bush Jr benefits from Clinton hitting the end of the TMT bubble and the Year 2000 slowdown.
Now 2020 is a little different, because the US recession is not being blamed on Trump, but on CV19. On the other hand, people who lose their jobs blame the man in charge, however fair or unfair that is.
Carter was arguably more charismatic than Ford but less so than Reagan.
If the economy alone was the factor Romney should probably have won in 2012
Romney got a greater proportion of the electorate to vote for him than Trump did.
But not in the key states where it mattered
Sure, but I think it's important to remember that Romney beat Trump, in terms of getting people out to vote for him.
Romney got 60 million votes in 2012, Trump got 62 million in 2016
And there were10 million more Americans who were eligible to vote.
As was posted on the previous thread, the issue of riots and concern over law and order is now starting to seep into US voters' minds as to which way to vote.
This is going to be the issue that will kill the Democrats. I'm sure we will have the usual "but it's not in the polls" argument but gun sales going through the roof tells you how scared many Americans are by what is happened at the moment. It is unlikely they will think Joe Biden is the person to fix the mess.
72 days.
That's how long is left.
And Biden continues to average over 50% in the polls. Which Clinton never did.
Now. It's entirely possible the polls are wrong. And it's possible that this issue of law and order will completely dominate the election. And I totally buy that Trump voters are more enthused.
The problem is that Trump should be closing the gap. He's not. Indeed, the polls seem to be worsening for him. And the economic news is not good. New unemployment claims were back at almost a million last week, that's a sharp reversal of previous progress.
Can I see Trump winning? Of course I can.
But while I thought he was value at 30% a month ago, he's now above 40%, when his polling position has worsened.
Law and order may be his way back. But it's a stretch. It's a lot easier to run on a "all is anarchy, you need me to get order" when you're the challenger than when you're the incumbent.
Trump's detractors still don't understand him, after 4 years.
Unfortunately for the President, a lot of independents now do.
The wildly unrepresentative handful of Americans I know are absolutely going to vote Biden to get rid of Trump. Their minds are completely made up I can't conceive of anything that would change them. The bad news for Trump is that some of them are people who have been apolitical or antipolitical as long as I have known them, and haven't voted for many election cycles. I can't imagine opinion polls picking them up. I wouldn't be surprised if the polls end up underestimating Biden's lead, though it could go either way, obviously.
Polls have been indicating for a while that most people made up their minds a long time ago about Trump, and the majority are against. Even a booming economy wouldn't make him favorite imo.
As a matter of anecdotal interest, which states ? The one I know are Californian, so not ideal barometers of opinion.
Because Californians would never vote for some guy just because they'd seen him on the telly and were star-struck? Reagan, Arnie, now Trump.
Arnie is a Republican but intelligent and not an anti-science climate change denier (quite the opposite).
in answer to the question above which states: california, new york, arizona
so I'm calling Arizona for Biden on the basis of a couple of friends...
I was speaking to a friend in California yesterday (in the smoke in Santa Cruz!) who was saying something like "sure, my vote isn't going to make any difference here, but I've still got to do my bit" and wouldn't consider a 3rd-party vote because only a vote for Biden is sufficiently anti-Trump, even in a state where it's a foregone conclusion. This was one of those people who hasn't voted for many election cycles. Yes it's California, but I'm guessing there are people like that in swing states too.
My impression is we hear quite a lot from people who voted Trump last time, who are sticking with him - well of course otherwise he wouldn't have any chance at all - but there might be a significant chunk of people who didn't vote last time, who will this time. I'm not sure what the polling says, but I'm guessing they are going to break more for Biden than Trump.
On the proms, what’s a little odd is the BBC apparently choosing to take sides on the brewing culture wars. Regardless of what people might claim, hardly anyone takes any notice of the proms. But once the spotlight of public attention was shone on this, why didnt the Beeb just say they’d always had plans for a soloist this year? It’s actually extraordinary that the Beeb have not backed down because it’s a trigger issue for the most important chunk of their customer base.
It reminds me a bit of how the over 50s have been trained by covid into ditching complacent businesses for online shopping instead. Same is likely to happen with the bbc. They’re taking their audience for granted, because they think the over 50s will never get themselves over the line to cancel their license and rely on Prime/Netflix/ITV Player/Youtube etc... I wouldn’t be so sure.
The media coverage of the next uk election should be quite tasty, the way the beeb is going it will be an existential one for them.
It is not just Trump, his wife and children will be speaking too.
A few other senior Republicans like Nikki Haley tonight, Mike Pompeo and Rand Paul tomorrow, VP Pence on Wednesday and Rudy Giuliani on Thursday will be speaking as well.
I am also not so sure making the convention about him will work badly for him and well for Biden, as Kerry and Romney found out trying to win by not being the President does not work as well as actually voting for the President.
Candidates who beat incumbent Presidents like Reagan and Bill Clinton won by having strong and charismatic enough personalities to have voters vote for them, not just against the incumbent. Biden needs to do more than just wait for Trump to lose.
Presidents tend to get re-elected. The exceptions in the last 45 years are Carter, Bush Sr, and Ford.
Now, on charisma, Reagan beat out Carter, and Clinton beat Bush. But then again, Ford was a pretty charismatic guy, while Carter was not. So charisma isn't everything.
I think a more reliable indicator for change of control of the Presidency is serious recessions:
Ford had one. Carter had one. Bush Sr had one.
Bush Jr also had one and handed over to Obama. While Bush Jr benefits from Clinton hitting the end of the TMT bubble and the Year 2000 slowdown.
Now 2020 is a little different, because the US recession is not being blamed on Trump, but on CV19. On the other hand, people who lose their jobs blame the man in charge, however fair or unfair that is.
1976, the US was just out of a painful two year recession and the incumbent party lost.
1980, the US was in recession and the incumbent party lost.
1984, the US registered 7% GDP growth, and the incumbent party swept the board.
1988, fourth year of c. 4% GDP growth in a row, incumbent party re-elected.
1992, US just leaving an 18 month recession, and the incumbent party lost.
1996, fourth year of c. 4% GDP growth in a row, incumbent party re-elected.
2000, bursting of the TMT bubble, and US economy slowing sharply at time of election, and the incumbent party lost (just).
2004, US economic growth back up to almost 4%, incumbent party re-elected.
2008, Global Financial Crisis and recession, and the incumbent party lost.
2012, economic recovery, and incumbent re-elected.
2016, economic growth slowed to just 1.6% (the slowest since the 2008/9 GFC), and the incumbent party lost.
I could be wrong, but it seems that good economic news is good for the incumbents, and vice versa. This also suggests Trump would probably have walked it, if not for CV19.
Simultaneously vastly more enthusiastic than a Biden voter, which you can tell by looking at the polling, yet simultaneously undetectable by polls due to shyness.
A true phenomena.
I'm skeptical about the "shy Trump voter", post-election analysis last time seemed to show that it was a very minor factor (if anything) in the polling errors.
But I could imagine those enthusiastically moronic Trump voters making the shy Trump voters even shyer?
Trump's detractors still don't understand him, after 4 years.
Unfortunately for the President, a lot of independents now do.
The wildly unrepresentative handful of Americans I know are absolutely going to vote Biden to get rid of Trump. Their minds are completely made up I can't conceive of anything that would change them. The bad news for Trump is that some of them are people who have been apolitical or antipolitical as long as I have known them, and haven't voted for many election cycles. I can't imagine opinion polls picking them up. I wouldn't be surprised if the polls end up underestimating Biden's lead, though it could go either way, obviously.
Polls have been indicating for a while that most people made up their minds a long time ago about Trump, and the majority are against. Even a booming economy wouldn't make him favorite imo.
As a matter of anecdotal interest, which states ? The one I know are Californian, so not ideal barometers of opinion.
Because Californians would never vote for some guy just because they'd seen him on the telly and were star-struck? Reagan, Arnie, now Trump.
Arnie is a Republican but intelligent and not an anti-science climate change denier (quite the opposite).
Schwarzenegger didn't just like the Hum Vee military vehicle as an expression of brownie-murdering chic back in the 90s so much he bought himself one, he single handedly brought about the existence of the civilian version.
12 mpg imperial, and that probably flatters it.
There may be a more egregious example of extreme wankerdom than the Thunberg loan in the history of gesture politics, but I'm struggling to identify it.
It is not just Trump, his wife and children will be speaking too.
A few other senior Republicans like Nikki Haley tonight, Mike Pompeo and Rand Paul tomorrow, VP Pence on Wednesday and Rudy Giuliani on Thursday will be speaking as well.
I am also not so sure making the convention about him will work badly for him and well for Biden, as Kerry and Romney found out trying to win by not being the President does not work as well as actually voting for the President.
Candidates who beat incumbent Presidents like Reagan and Bill Clinton won by having strong and charismatic enough personalities to have voters vote for them, not just against the incumbent. Biden needs to do more than just wait for Trump to lose.
Presidents tend to get re-elected. The exceptions in the last 45 years are Carter, Bush Sr, and Ford.
Now, on charisma, Reagan beat out Carter, and Clinton beat Bush. But then again, Ford was a pretty charismatic guy, while Carter was not. So charisma isn't everything.
I think a more reliable indicator for change of control of the Presidency is serious recessions:
Ford had one. Carter had one. Bush Sr had one.
Bush Jr also had one and handed over to Obama. While Bush Jr benefits from Clinton hitting the end of the TMT bubble and the Year 2000 slowdown.
Now 2020 is a little different, because the US recession is not being blamed on Trump, but on CV19. On the other hand, people who lose their jobs blame the man in charge, however fair or unfair that is.
1976, the US was just out of a painful two year recession and the incumbent party lost.
1980, the US was in recession and the incumbent party lost.
1984, the US registered 7% GDP growth, and the incumbent party swept the board.
1988, fourth year of c. 4% GDP growth in a row, incumbent party re-elected.
1992, US just leaving an 18 month recession, and the incumbent party lost.
1996, fourth year of c. 4% GDP growth in a row, incumbent party re-elected.
2000, bursting of the TMT bubble, and US economy slowing sharply at time of election, and the incumbent party lost (just).
2004, US economic growth back up to almost 4%, incumbent party re-elected.
2008, Global Financial Crisis and recession, and the incumbent party lost.
2012, economic recovery, and incumbent re-elected.
2016, economic growth slowed to just 1.6% (the slowest since the 2008/9 GFC), and the incumbent party lost.
I could be wrong, but it seems that good economic news is good for the incumbents, and vice versa. This also suggests Trump would probably have walked it, if not for CV19.
This seems a little but tricksy to me, because they're not consistent measures, for example in 1992 we're *leaving* the recession (ie was bad but is now good), but in 2000 we're slowing just at the time of the election (ie was good but is now bad). Can we find a single criterion where the theory still works?
Simultaneously vastly more enthusiastic than a Biden voter, which you can tell by looking at the polling, yet simultaneously undetectable by polls due to shyness.
A true phenomena.
I'm skeptical about the "shy Trump voter", post-election analysis last time seemed to show that it was a very minor factor (if anything) in the polling errors.
But I could imagine those enthusiastically moronic Trump voters making the shy Trump voters even shyer?
Any polling errors in national vote share were simply "margin of error" errors.
"Despite all this, however, nationwide polling was not far off from the actual popular vote result, and in fact very few states had results that deviated from the margin of error in the polling average. In a FiveThirtyEight article, Nate Silver defended the performance of the polls in 2016 as historically average, and argued that "Media organizations need to do a better job of informing their readers about the uncertainties associated with polling" [631]."
Trump's detractors still don't understand him, after 4 years.
Unfortunately for the President, a lot of independents now do.
The wildly unrepresentative handful of Americans I know are absolutely going to vote Biden to get rid of Trump. Their minds are completely made up I can't conceive of anything that would change them. The bad news for Trump is that some of them are people who have been apolitical or antipolitical as long as I have known them, and haven't voted for many election cycles. I can't imagine opinion polls picking them up. I wouldn't be surprised if the polls end up underestimating Biden's lead, though it could go either way, obviously.
Polls have been indicating for a while that most people made up their minds a long time ago about Trump, and the majority are against. Even a booming economy wouldn't make him favorite imo.
As a matter of anecdotal interest, which states ? The one I know are Californian, so not ideal barometers of opinion.
Because Californians would never vote for some guy just because they'd seen him on the telly and were star-struck? Reagan, Arnie, now Trump.
Arnie is a Republican but intelligent and not an anti-science climate change denier (quite the opposite).
in answer to the question above which states: california, new york, arizona
so I'm calling Arizona for Biden on the basis of a couple of friends...
I was speaking to a friend in California yesterday (in the smoke in Santa Cruz!) who was saying something like "sure, my vote isn't going to make any difference here, but I've still got to do my bit" and wouldn't consider a 3rd-party vote because only a vote for Biden is sufficiently anti-Trump, even in a state where it's a foregone conclusion. This was one of those people who hasn't voted for many election cycles. Yes it's California, but I'm guessing there are people like that in swing states too.
My impression is we hear quite a lot from people who voted Trump last time, who are sticking with him - well of course otherwise he wouldn't have any chance at all - but there might be a significant chunk of people who didn't vote last time, who will this time. I'm not sure what the polling says, but I'm guessing they are going to break more for Biden than Trump.
Also remember that RCS told us that most US polls only count those who actually voted last time. So people like your friend in Santa Cruz will not be reflected in the polls. Of course we also do not know how many usually-non-voters will get up and vote for Trump this time.
Comments
A few other senior Republicans like Nikki Haley tonight, Mike Pompeo and Rand Paul tomorrow, VP Pence on Wednesday and Rudy Giuliani on Thursday will be speaking as well.
I am also not so sure making the convention about him will work badly for him and well for Biden, as Kerry and Romney found out trying to win by not being the President does not work as well as actually voting for the President.
Candidates who beat incumbent Presidents like Reagan and Bill Clinton won by having strong and charismatic enough personalities to have voters vote for them, not just against the incumbent. Biden needs to do more than just wait for Trump to lose.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/08/republican-national-convention-schedule-2020-200822162053624.html
Personally couldn't give a toss, I defer to anyone else that cares
Presidents tend to get re-elected. The exceptions in the last 45 years are Carter, Bush Sr, and Ford.
Now, on charisma, Reagan beat out Carter, and Clinton beat Bush. But then again, Ford was a pretty charismatic guy, while Carter was not. So charisma isn't everything.
I think a more reliable indicator for change of control of the Presidency is serious recessions:
Ford had one.
Carter had one.
Bush Sr had one.
Bush Jr also had one and handed over to Obama. While Bush Jr benefits from Clinton hitting the end of the TMT bubble and the Year 2000 slowdown.
Now 2020 is a little different, because the US recession is not being blamed on Trump, but on CV19. On the other hand, people who lose their jobs blame the man in charge, however fair or unfair that is.
If the economy alone was the factor Romney should probably have won in 2012
Re the Presidents, I think HYFUD has a good point re the challenger needs to offer something rather than being "not the other guy".
On the previous one-term losers, Ford wasn't great (the old "can't walk and chew gum at the same time"), faced a serious challenge from Reagan in the selection process and, most of all, was in charge of a party that was seriously stained by Watergate.
This is going to be the issue that will kill the Democrats. I'm sure we will have the usual "but it's not in the polls" argument but gun sales going through the roof tells you how scared many Americans are by what is happened at the moment. It is unlikely they will think Joe Biden is the person to fix the mess.
1980, the US was in recession and the incumbent party lost.
1984, the US registered 7% GDP growth, and the incumbent party swept the board.
1988, fourth year of c. 4% GDP growth in a row, incumbent party re-elected.
1992, US just leaving an 18 month recession, and the incumbent party lost.
1996, fourth year of c. 4% GDP growth in a row, incumbent party re-elected.
2000, bursting of the TMT bubble, and US economy slowing sharply at time of election, and the incumbent party lost (just).
2004, US economic growth back up to almost 4%, incumbent party re-elected.
2008, Global Financial Crisis and recession, and the incumbent party lost.
2012, economic recovery, and incumbent re-elected.
2016, economic growth slowed to just 1.6% (the slowest since the 2008/9 GFC), and the incumbent party lost.
I could be wrong, but it seems that good economic news is good for the incumbents, and vice versa. This also suggests Trump would probably have walked it, if not for CV19.
That's how long is left.
And Biden continues to average over 50% in the polls. Which Clinton never did.
Now. It's entirely possible the polls are wrong. And it's possible that this issue of law and order will completely dominate the election. And I totally buy that Trump voters are more enthused.
The problem is that Trump should be closing the gap. He's not. Indeed, the polls seem to be worsening for him. And the economic news is not good. New unemployment claims were back at almost a million last week, that's a sharp reversal of previous progress.
Can I see Trump winning? Of course I can.
But while I thought he was value at 30% a month ago, he's now above 40%, when his polling position has worsened.
Law and order may be his way back. But it's a stretch. It's a lot easier to run on a "all is anarchy, you need me to get order" when you're the challenger than when you're the incumbent.
Biden is averaging 51.4% in the 538 national poll. The highest that Ms Clinton ever reached (her absolute high watermark in the poll of polls) was 46%.
What is notable about Trump is that he performs worse by comparison with past presidents when using disapproval ratings than when using approval ratings. His present disapproval rating is on a par with Carter and HW Bush, that is as bad or worse than any postwar president at this stage of the electoral cycle. Using approval ratings he is still doing marginally better than Carter and HW Bush, although not by much.
The man is basically reviled by much of the electorate to an unprecedented degree. The more exposure he's given the more it just serves to remind those who revile him that they really have to vote to get rid of him by supporting no-one else but Biden. That will be a bigger spur to enthuse the Sanders supporters to vote for Biden than anything that Biden could himself say to try and persuade them.
Let's look at average Augusts polling positions for whoever won the popular vote at the General. I will start post-Clinton, because Ross Perot meant everyone got very low shares.
2000:
Gore averaged 44%
2004:
Bush averaged 48%
2008:
Obama averaged 47%
2012:
Obama averaged 46%
2016:
Clinton averaged 45%
Joe Biden is averaging over 50% in the poll of polls.
https://twitter.com/khennessey/status/1298039192820297729?s=21
In others... not so much.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.160843673
So yes, if Boris resigns this week, 9/2 against Sunak is terrific value but he probably won't.
It's just not something you admit to.
True there are some parallels, but while Johnson shares the narcissism, it’s not combined with the same raging egomania or megalomania.
Johnson has limits; Trump has none.
Democrats: 1.72
Republicans: 2.36
Joe Biden: 1.79 (still worried he might withdraw?)
Donald Trump: 2.34 (and how is Trump shorter than the Republicans?)
Kamala Harris: 130
Hillary Clinton: 290
Mike Pence: 300
Michelle Obama: 900
(and it would not be Betfair if you can't lay Michelle Obama and Hillary Clinton!)
That Boris and Trump are both charismatic? They both were known for television work; each has several families (surely proof of great personal charm); they even have distinctive hair.
Or the disregard for conventions, like being interviewed during election campaigns, or not telling blatant lies? Their behaviour caused the departure of previous loyalists. They have even both been stopped by their countries' respective Supreme Courts.
So yes, Boris is the British Trump.
Polls have been indicating for a while that most people made up their minds a long time ago about Trump, and the majority are against. Even a booming economy wouldn't make him favorite imo.
The one I know are Californian, so not ideal barometers of opinion.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-53897641
Optical Compute Promises Game-Changing AI Performance
https://www.eetimes.com/optical-compute-promises-game-changing-ai-performance/
We could take existing AI data centers and reduce the energy consumption by a factor of 20 and shrink the physical footprint by a factor of five,” Harris said. “And that’s just with the first generation of what we’re building. There’s a long road map ahead.”
While Harris emphasized that this test chip has been built as a demonstrator for the technology, and not to do well on benchmarks, he was adamant that in a practical application Lightmatter’s demonstrator would still beat the market leader for AI acceleration, Nvidia’s Ampere A100. Harris said that compared to the A100, Lightmatter’s chip offers 20 times the energy efficiency and at least five times the throughput on workloads like BERT and Resnet-50 inference....
PS: Hence why Bozo needs a sewer rat like Cummings pulling his strings
But.
Ultimately, the system matters more than the person. (If history has taught us one thing, it's that in the long run it's better to have a good system, than a great person.) And Trump is proving himself to be a danger to the American system - by which I mean the system of checks and balances, the separation of powers, and the system of democracy.
Ms Toynbee, in the Guardian is quite severely depressing, too.
Although on a personal level I'm alive and ready for the gym, which at 80+ is probably something about which to be happy!
???
???
Maybe everyone needs to be cautious over calling this a Biden walkover
And I do not follow US politics at all
Simultaneously vastly more enthusiastic than a Biden voter, which you can tell by looking at the polling, yet simultaneously undetectable by polls due to shyness.
A true phenomena.
Land of Hope and Glory formed the finale of The Coronation Ode, though to different words to those belted out during the Proms Last Night.
There are plenty of different lyrics to the tune, which football supporters used to add.
Ford did not fail to get re-elected. You can’t be re-elected unless you are first elected.
"you are all too stupid and enmeshed in your liberal elite views to understamnd why Trump is so phenomenally popular which is why he won the election over the hugely unpopular Hilary Clinton"
"Trump got 3 million less votes than Clinton"
"Ah, I'm talking about his appeal to the White Working Classes which you would never understand with your Liberal elite views. His huge popularity with the WWC is why he won rust belt states like Wisconsin the like of which Romney could never reach"
"Trump got less votes than Romney in Wisconsin"
"You'll never understand Trump"
Or if they are then they have a fucking massive position on Biden right now.
Especially the rain currently lashing my roof.
https://en.uncyclopedia.co/wiki/Polly_Toynbee
california, new york, arizona
so I'm calling Arizona for Biden on the basis of a couple of friends...
I was speaking to a friend in California yesterday (in the smoke in Santa Cruz!) who was saying something like "sure, my vote isn't going to make any difference here, but I've still got to do my bit" and wouldn't consider a 3rd-party vote because only a vote for Biden is sufficiently anti-Trump, even in a state where it's a foregone conclusion. This was one of those people who hasn't voted for many election cycles. Yes it's California, but I'm guessing there are people like that in swing states too.
My impression is we hear quite a lot from people who voted Trump last time, who are sticking with him - well of course otherwise he wouldn't have any chance at all - but there might be a significant chunk of people who didn't vote last time, who will this time. I'm not sure what the polling says, but I'm guessing they are going to break more for Biden than Trump.
It reminds me a bit of how the over 50s have been trained by covid into ditching complacent businesses for online shopping instead. Same is likely to happen with the bbc. They’re taking their audience for granted, because they think the over 50s will never get themselves over the line to cancel their license and rely on Prime/Netflix/ITV Player/Youtube etc... I wouldn’t be so sure.
The media coverage of the next uk election should be quite tasty, the way the beeb is going it will be an existential one for them.
But I could imagine those enthusiastically moronic Trump voters making the shy Trump voters even shyer?
Schwarzenegger didn't just like the Hum Vee military vehicle as an expression of brownie-murdering chic back in the 90s so much he bought himself one, he single handedly brought about the existence of the civilian version.
12 mpg imperial, and that probably flatters it.
There may be a more egregious example of extreme wankerdom than the Thunberg loan in the history of gesture politics, but I'm struggling to identify it.
From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_2016_United_States_presidential_election
"Despite all this, however, nationwide polling was not far off from the actual popular vote result, and in fact very few states had results that deviated from the margin of error in the polling average. In a FiveThirtyEight article, Nate Silver defended the performance of the polls in 2016 as historically average, and argued that "Media organizations need to do a better job of informing their readers about the uncertainties associated with polling" [631]."