Undefined discussion subject.

Black_Rook said:

It can't be. AFAIK the average Scot is only marginally older and sicker than the mean for the UK. To account for this kind of disproportionality, half the Scottish population would need to be morbidly obese.

I'm afraid overweight people are going to be the next group to be demonised and vilified in the media and elsewhere.

We had a spell when anyone who claimed welfare (even with a disability) was a "scrounger", then we had the routine abuse of migrants.

Now, it's overweight people, people who work at home, parents who don't want to send their children back to school. It's part of the populist missive - if you don't conform, you get vilified until you do.

Another group who suffer are people who go on holiday while there are problems. One example is a man who takes his fiancee and their child camping out in a Scottish field until they are tracked down by the self-appointed moral guardians de nos jours, the Daily Mail and he is told to get back to work.

Nigelb said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigelb said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

God, Trump is a complete [naughty word], he's going to make the pandemic much much worse.

https://twitter.com/oliverdarcy/status/1297157870862172163

Infowars or 1980, when the GOP is alleged to have delayed the release of the Iranian hostages so as not to benefit Carter -- the so-called October Surprise.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_Surprise_conspiracy_theory

Or there was that time the GOP paid some ex-CIA types to break into the Democrats HQ and steal their plans.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Watergate_scandal

Or last time when the GOP was helped by Russian hackers and trolls.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/19/opinion/trump-russia-2016-report.html

You forget Watergate was solely because Nixon was the legitimate victim of Dem cheating in the 1960 election.

His view was what happened in Chicago/Illinois might very well have happened elsewhere to deprive him of the Presidency in 1960.

And that made it OK to sabotage peace talks with Vietnam and effectively sentence a number of US troops to death to further his political ambitions ?

Nope, I was trying to explain why these things happen, not condone them.

It’s a view.
There are others.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/08/08/heres-a-voter-fraud-myth-richard-daley-stole-illinois-for-john-kennedy-in-the-1960-election/

IMO, Nixon was just one of life’s ratfuckers.

Nixon was a political titan, and a scrupulously fair operator compared to the current incumbent.

Luckyguy1983 said:

Sadly, it wouldn't surprise me if there's an element within the FDA that would like to delay a vaccine to spoil Trump's big electoral plan. I suspect that if it's the case, those concerned have justified it to themselves as 'the greater good'. People lose all perspective and moral compass when it comes to Trump.

We have been told that vaccine has never before been created in less than a number of years. I don't think anyone is slowing anything down, in fact everyone is going all out. Does Trump's 'Deep State' stretch to slowing down the Oxford/Astrazenica vaccine and all the other international ones too?
No, the Orange Idiot just needs something to happen to give him a chance and someone, anyone, to blame for it not happening.
My guess is that the 'October Surprise' will be an offer from Putin to supply their untested vaccine just before the election but not too long before so that Americans start dying or it's found to be ineffective.

While obviously it is fun to point at the tinfoil hatters, Qanon has become surprisingly mainstream over the pond:

"You know that a small group of manipulators, operating in the shadows, pull the planet’s strings. You know that they are powerful enough to abuse children without fear of retribution. You know that the mainstream media are their handmaidens, in partnership with Hillary Clinton and the secretive denizens of the deep state. You know that only Donald Trump stands between you and a damned and ravaged world. You see plague and pestilence sweeping the planet, and understand that they are part of the plan. You know that a clash between good and evil cannot be avoided, and you yearn for the Great Awakening that is coming. And so you must be on guard at all times. You must shield your ears from the scorn of the ignorant. You must find those who are like you. And you must be prepared to fight.

You know all this because you believe in Q."

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/06/qanon-nothing-can-stop-what-is-coming/610567/

Black_Rook said:

CarlottaVance said:

Black_Rook said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Black_Rook said:

Today's Covid hospital patient total is 834 - down about another 10% in a week - and it looks like it could scrape in just below 800 tomorrow.

Incidentally, 30% of all remaining Covid patients are now in Scottish hospitals. As I've pointed out before, at the peak of the pandemic the number of hospital patients per head of population was approximately the same in all four constituent parts of the UK, so why the current figures are so skewed is anyone's guess.

Its strange given the amazing job Saint Nicola has done compared to Beastly BoZo . . .

We don't know whether this is a weakness or a strength. For all we know the Scottish NHS is being hyper cautious and is worried about letting those recovering from Covid go home too soon.

But I'm totally guessing as to the possible causes, which is why I contented myself with reporting the apparent anomaly.

Indeed, we may well have "Saved the NHS" by sacrificing patients.

Scotland's overall Covid death rate is a little lower than that in Wales and substantially lower than that in England (Northern Ireland does much better than Scotland, but I think that it probably benefited from relative geographic isolation and prompt action by the Republic.) OTOH, it has been oft reported that a greater proportion of Scottish Covid deaths have happened in care homes.

I suppose what could be happening is that...

1. The disease spread unevenly through the UK, hitting London first and hardest. This would mean that lockdown measures started to come into force at an earlier stage in the pandemic in Scotland, limiting its severity
2. The Scottish NHS panic flapped at the start of the pandemic, like everyone else, and threw out as many frail old people as quickly as possible to free up hospital beds. The situation in the care homes then developed in a similar fashion to the rest of the UK
3. However, perhaps the Scottish NHS modified its practices at some point and began to keep recovering Covid patients in hospital for longer? Therefore, later on in the pandemic, it has done a better job of keeping its Covid patients alive, which has helped to suppress the Scottish mortality rate further - but also means that they have more Covid patients left in hospital now than might be expected

If a record exists of the average length of hospital stay for a Covid-19 patient in each of the four home nations, then this might yield evidence for point 3.

From what I’ve read of the process in other countries the U.K. apparently admits patients later/sicker (so the NHS is “saved”) rather than discharging them earlier.

Philip_Thompson said:

Omnium said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Casino_Royale said:

Biden's biggest risk is if he just tries to win by boosting his base.

He needs to appeal to WWC in the swing states as well, and not be complacent.

Condemning the violence and disorder in the big cities is essential.

Considering the violence is getting stoked by Federal Agents roughing up unarmed peaceful protesters and 'moms' whom should he be condemning though?

You're stretching here. Federal Agents are the good guys. It's anarchy otherwise. I'm pretty sure we'd not like anarchy.

Things go wrong in this, but the sense of things isn't turned on its head.

I don't want anarchy but I don't want authoritarian abuse either.

I'm struggling to see how armed, unidentifiable Federal Agents with no ID tags attacking unarmed peaceful protestors and even the media are "the good guys". Perhaps you can explain that one to me?

I don't know the incident you're referring to.
Police-people of all sorts are part of society. They often do a tough job. There are enough of them to provide really forceful inertia against change. That's good, and that's bad. Nonetheless we have law and order forces that are almost impossible to hijack. The US does too.

The NHS has recently been the subject of singing praise, but the other public services are equally deserving of great respect. I'm sure this is true in other countries too.

NickPalmer said:

Philip_Thompson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Looks like The Sunday Times have a big story tonight

https://twitter.com/DavidCollinsST/status/1297219549868294146

Wonder if it will be true or another work of fiction like others they've bigged up then released this year.

We're always sorry to hear of people being murdered, of course, but is a report that it may have happened undetected 24 years ago really the main news tomorrow?

Where were you on the night of the incident Dr P?

Black_Rook said:

CarlottaVance said:

Black_Rook said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Black_Rook said:

Today's Covid hospital patient total is 834 - down about another 10% in a week - and it looks like it could scrape in just below 800 tomorrow.

Incidentally, 30% of all remaining Covid patients are now in Scottish hospitals. As I've pointed out before, at the peak of the pandemic the number of hospital patients per head of population was approximately the same in all four constituent parts of the UK, so why the current figures are so skewed is anyone's guess.

Its strange given the amazing job Saint Nicola has done compared to Beastly BoZo . . .

We don't know whether this is a weakness or a strength. For all we know the Scottish NHS is being hyper cautious and is worried about letting those recovering from Covid go home too soon.

But I'm totally guessing as to the possible causes, which is why I contented myself with reporting the apparent anomaly.

Indeed, we may well have "Saved the NHS" by sacrificing patients.

Scotland's overall Covid death rate is a little lower than that in Wales and substantially lower than that in England (Northern Ireland does much better than Scotland, but I think that it probably benefited from relative geographic isolation and prompt action by the Republic.) OTOH, it has been oft reported that a greater proportion of Scottish Covid deaths have happened in care homes.

I suppose what could be happening is that...

1. The disease spread unevenly through the UK, hitting London first and hardest. This would mean that lockdown measures started to come into force at an earlier stage in the pandemic in Scotland, limiting its severity
2. The Scottish NHS panic flapped at the start of the pandemic, like everyone else, and threw out as many frail old people as quickly as possible to free up hospital beds. The situation in the care homes then developed in a similar fashion to the rest of the UK
3. However, perhaps the Scottish NHS modified its practices at some point and began to keep recovering Covid patients in hospital for longer? Therefore, later on in the pandemic, it has done a better job of keeping its Covid patients alive, which has helped to suppress the Scottish mortality rate further - but also means that they have more Covid patients left in hospital now than might be expected

If a record exists of the average length of hospital stay for a Covid-19 patient in each of the four home nations, then this might yield evidence for point 3.

The other weird thing is Scotland has less Covid ICU patients proportionally despite having more hospital patients.

But I suppose at such low numbers that might just be noise.

Omnium said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Omnium said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Casino_Royale said:

Biden's biggest risk is if he just tries to win by boosting his base.

He needs to appeal to WWC in the swing states as well, and not be complacent.

Condemning the violence and disorder in the big cities is essential.

Considering the violence is getting stoked by Federal Agents roughing up unarmed peaceful protesters and 'moms' whom should he be condemning though?

You're stretching here. Federal Agents are the good guys. It's anarchy otherwise. I'm pretty sure we'd not like anarchy.

Things go wrong in this, but the sense of things isn't turned on its head.

I don't want anarchy but I don't want authoritarian abuse either.

I'm struggling to see how armed, unidentifiable Federal Agents with no ID tags attacking unarmed peaceful protestors and even the media are "the good guys". Perhaps you can explain that one to me?

I don't know the incident you're referring to.
Police-people of all sorts are part of society. They often do a tough job. There are enough of them to provide really forceful inertia against change. That's good, and that's bad. Nonetheless we have law and order forces that are almost impossible to hijack. The US does too.

The NHS has recently been the subject of singing praise, but the other public services are equally deserving of great respect. I'm sure this is true in other countries too.

More than one I believe, but here's an example
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/lawmakers-push-investigation-of-unidentified-federal-troops-in-oregon/ar-BB16UCzt

Alistair said:

Black_Rook said:

CarlottaVance said:

Black_Rook said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Black_Rook said:

Today's Covid hospital patient total is 834 - down about another 10% in a week - and it looks like it could scrape in just below 800 tomorrow.

Incidentally, 30% of all remaining Covid patients are now in Scottish hospitals. As I've pointed out before, at the peak of the pandemic the number of hospital patients per head of population was approximately the same in all four constituent parts of the UK, so why the current figures are so skewed is anyone's guess.

Its strange given the amazing job Saint Nicola has done compared to Beastly BoZo . . .

We don't know whether this is a weakness or a strength. For all we know the Scottish NHS is being hyper cautious and is worried about letting those recovering from Covid go home too soon.

But I'm totally guessing as to the possible causes, which is why I contented myself with reporting the apparent anomaly.

Indeed, we may well have "Saved the NHS" by sacrificing patients.

Scotland's overall Covid death rate is a little lower than that in Wales and substantially lower than that in England (Northern Ireland does much better than Scotland, but I think that it probably benefited from relative geographic isolation and prompt action by the Republic.) OTOH, it has been oft reported that a greater proportion of Scottish Covid deaths have happened in care homes.

I suppose what could be happening is that...

1. The disease spread unevenly through the UK, hitting London first and hardest. This would mean that lockdown measures started to come into force at an earlier stage in the pandemic in Scotland, limiting its severity
2. The Scottish NHS panic flapped at the start of the pandemic, like everyone else, and threw out as many frail old people as quickly as possible to free up hospital beds. The situation in the care homes then developed in a similar fashion to the rest of the UK
3. However, perhaps the Scottish NHS modified its practices at some point and began to keep recovering Covid patients in hospital for longer? Therefore, later on in the pandemic, it has done a better job of keeping its Covid patients alive, which has helped to suppress the Scottish mortality rate further - but also means that they have more Covid patients left in hospital now than might be expected

If a record exists of the average length of hospital stay for a Covid-19 patient in each of the four home nations, then this might yield evidence for point 3.

The other weird thing is Scotland has less Covid ICU patients

My inner Grammar Nazi just decided to attack Poland.

ydoethur said:

Omnium said:

NickPalmer said:

Philip_Thompson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Looks like The Sunday Times have a big story tonight

https://twitter.com/DavidCollinsST/status/1297219549868294146

Wonder if it will be true or another work of fiction like others they've bigged up then released this year.

We're always sorry to hear of people being murdered, of course, but is a report that it may have happened undetected 24 years ago really the main news tomorrow?

Where were you on the night of the incident Dr P?

You clearly have a high opinion of his memory if you think he can remember what he was doing on a particular day 24 years ago.

I have a very high opinion of Dr P - and all his faculties.

While we're here though what were you doing that night!!?

Foxy said:

While obviously it is fun to point at the tinfoil hatters, Qanon has become surprisingly mainstream over the pond:

"You know that a small group of manipulators, operating in the shadows, pull the planet’s strings. You know that they are powerful enough to abuse children without fear of retribution. You know that the mainstream media are their handmaidens, in partnership with Hillary Clinton and the secretive denizens of the deep state. You know that only Donald Trump stands between you and a damned and ravaged world. You see plague and pestilence sweeping the planet, and understand that they are part of the plan. You know that a clash between good and evil cannot be avoided, and you yearn for the Great Awakening that is coming. And so you must be on guard at all times. You must shield your ears from the scorn of the ignorant. You must find those who are like you. And you must be prepared to fight.

You know all this because you believe in Q."

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/06/qanon-nothing-can-stop-what-is-coming/610567/

That is compelling. How the typical floating voter can read that and not vote for Donald Trump on 3rd November I do not know.

Philip_Thompson said:

Black_Rook said:

Today's Covid hospital patient total is 834 - down about another 10% in a week - and it looks like it could scrape in just below 800 tomorrow.

Incidentally, 30% of all remaining Covid patients are now in Scottish hospitals. As I've pointed out before, at the peak of the pandemic the number of hospital patients per head of population was approximately the same in all four constituent parts of the UK, so why the current figures are so skewed is anyone's guess.

Its strange given the amazing job Saint Nicola has done compared to Beastly BoZo . . .

Overall Scotland is still only 65% maximum of England and has far less infections , apart from the 2 clusters this week it has been almost nothing. Bozo is still miles behind.

TheScreamingEagles said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

God, Trump is a complete [naughty word], he's going to make the pandemic much much worse.

https://twitter.com/oliverdarcy/status/1297157870862172163

Infowars or 1980, when the GOP is alleged to have delayed the release of the Iranian hostages so as not to benefit Carter -- the so-called October Surprise.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_Surprise_conspiracy_theory

Or there was that time the GOP paid some ex-CIA types to break into the Democrats HQ and steal their plans.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Watergate_scandal

Or last time when the GOP was helped by Russian hackers and trolls.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/19/opinion/trump-russia-2016-report.html

You forget Watergate was solely because Nixon was the legitimate victim of Dem cheating in the 1960 election.

His view was what happened in Chicago/Illinois might very well have happened elsewhere to deprive him of the Presidency in 1960.

OF COURSE Nixon was NOT concerned with REPUBLICAN cheating in downstate Illinois, and neither have subsequent pundits & polemicists.

Only comprehensive study of actual evidence from 1960 general election in Cook County ("Court House over White House") concluded that votes were definitely rigged in number of precincts, but this was done against Republican Cook County district attorney, a former Dem and rival of Mayor Daley (the Elder).

Also concluded that while Nixon suffered from this skullduggery, it was NOT quite enough to have put JFK over the top in the Land of Lincoln.

And also OF COURSE Nixon was convinced that the 1960 election had been stolen from him. Though is interesting, the only statewide recount in 1960 was in Hawaii, which Kennedy won.

Omnium said:

ydoethur said:

Omnium said:

NickPalmer said:

Philip_Thompson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Looks like The Sunday Times have a big story tonight

https://twitter.com/DavidCollinsST/status/1297219549868294146

Wonder if it will be true or another work of fiction like others they've bigged up then released this year.

We're always sorry to hear of people being murdered, of course, but is a report that it may have happened undetected 24 years ago really the main news tomorrow?

Where were you on the night of the incident Dr P?

You clearly have a high opinion of his memory if you think he can remember what he was doing on a particular day 24 years ago.

I have a very high opinion of Dr P - and all his faculties.

While we're here though what were you doing that night!!?

Well, I can assure you I wasn’t in Cheshire. Without digging out my diary for 1996 though, I couldn’t tell you what I actually was doing.

(And you’ll have to tell me the actual date in question, as I’m too much of a skinflint to read the Times.)

Omnium said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Omnium said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Casino_Royale said:

Biden's biggest risk is if he just tries to win by boosting his base.

He needs to appeal to WWC in the swing states as well, and not be complacent.

Condemning the violence and disorder in the big cities is essential.

Considering the violence is getting stoked by Federal Agents roughing up unarmed peaceful protesters and 'moms' whom should he be condemning though?

You're stretching here. Federal Agents are the good guys. It's anarchy otherwise. I'm pretty sure we'd not like anarchy.

Things go wrong in this, but the sense of things isn't turned on its head.

I don't want anarchy but I don't want authoritarian abuse either.

I'm struggling to see how armed, unidentifiable Federal Agents with no ID tags attacking unarmed peaceful protestors and even the media are "the good guys". Perhaps you can explain that one to me?

I don't know the incident you're referring to.
Police-people of all sorts are part of society. They often do a tough job. There are enough of them to provide really forceful inertia against change. That's good, and that's bad. Nonetheless we have law and order forces that are almost impossible to hijack. The US does too...

That would depend on how you define ‘hijack’.
And I would not, for example, describe the leadership of ICE as ‘good people‘.

Federal US troops entering Portland isn't an "invasion". It's their country.

tlg86 said:

Omnium said:

ydoethur said:

Omnium said:

NickPalmer said:

Philip_Thompson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Looks like The Sunday Times have a big story tonight

https://twitter.com/DavidCollinsST/status/1297219549868294146

Wonder if it will be true or another work of fiction like others they've bigged up then released this year.

We're always sorry to hear of people being murdered, of course, but is a report that it may have happened undetected 24 years ago really the main news tomorrow?

Where were you on the night of the incident Dr P?

You clearly have a high opinion of his memory if you think he can remember what he was doing on a particular day 24 years ago.

I have a very high opinion of Dr P - and all his faculties.

While we're here though what were you doing that night!!?

The sad thing is, I'm 95% confident that I'd have been watching the first day of this 24 years ago today:

https://www.espncricinfo.com/series/16177/scorecard/63718/england-vs-pakistan-3rd-test-pakistan-tour-of-england-and-scotland-1996

I distinctly remember watching the final day batting collapse when we went from 166-2 to 242 all out.

That’s an amazing feat of memory in itself, when you consider how many batting collapses there were to choose from in the ‘90s.

Typically unbalanced England side of the period though. Play five bowlers, two of whom are in the side at least partly for their batting, plus open the batting with a makeshift keeper, plus send a pair of specialist openers in at 5 and 6.

The amazing thing was that we won any matches in that era.

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

God, Trump is a complete [naughty word], he's going to make the pandemic much much worse.

https://twitter.com/oliverdarcy/status/1297157870862172163

Infowars or 1980, when the GOP is alleged to have delayed the release of the Iranian hostages so as not to benefit Carter -- the so-called October Surprise.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_Surprise_conspiracy_theory

Or there was that time the GOP paid some ex-CIA types to break into the Democrats HQ and steal their plans.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Watergate_scandal

Or last time when the GOP was helped by Russian hackers and trolls.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/19/opinion/trump-russia-2016-report.html

You forget Watergate was solely because Nixon was the legitimate victim of Dem cheating in the 1960 election.

His view was what happened in Chicago/Illinois might very well have happened elsewhere to deprive him of the Presidency in 1960.

OF COURSE Nixon was NOT concerned with REPUBLICAN cheating in downstate Illinois, and neither have subsequent pundits & polemicists.

Only comprehensive study of actual evidence from 1960 general election in Cook County ("Court House over White House") concluded that votes were definitely rigged in number of precincts, but this was done against Republican Cook County district attorney, a former Dem and rival of Mayor Daley (the Elder).

Also concluded that while Nixon suffered from this skullduggery, it was NOT quite enough to have put JFK over the top in the Land of Lincoln.

And also OF COURSE Nixon was convinced that the 1960 election had been stolen from him. Though is interesting, the only statewide recount in 1960 was in Hawaii, which Kennedy won.

Illinois alone would not have given Nixon the presidency anyway.
Nixon was a sad, bitter man; a sore loser, and even more miserable winner.

Black_Rook said:

CarlottaVance said:

Black_Rook said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Black_Rook said:

Today's Covid hospital patient total is 834 - down about another 10% in a week - and it looks like it could scrape in just below 800 tomorrow.

Incidentally, 30% of all remaining Covid patients are now in Scottish hospitals. As I've pointed out before, at the peak of the pandemic the number of hospital patients per head of population was approximately the same in all four constituent parts of the UK, so why the current figures are so skewed is anyone's guess.

Its strange given the amazing job Saint Nicola has done compared to Beastly BoZo . . .

We don't know whether this is a weakness or a strength. For all we know the Scottish NHS is being hyper cautious and is worried about letting those recovering from Covid go home too soon.

But I'm totally guessing as to the possible causes, which is why I contented myself with reporting the apparent anomaly.

Indeed, we may well have "Saved the NHS" by sacrificing patients.

Scotland's overall Covid death rate is a little lower than that in Wales and substantially lower than that in England (Northern Ireland does much better than Scotland, but I think that it probably benefited from relative geographic isolation and prompt action by the Republic.) OTOH, it has been oft reported that a greater proportion of Scottish Covid deaths have happened in care homes.

I suppose what could be happening is that...

1. The disease spread unevenly through the UK, hitting London first and hardest. This would mean that lockdown measures started to come into force at an earlier stage in the pandemic in Scotland, limiting its severity
2. The Scottish NHS panic flapped at the start of the pandemic, like everyone else, and threw out as many frail old people as quickly as possible to free up hospital beds. The situation in the care homes then developed in a similar fashion to the rest of the UK
3. However, perhaps the Scottish NHS modified its practices at some point and began to keep recovering Covid patients in hospital for longer? Therefore, later on in the pandemic, it has done a better job of keeping its Covid patients alive, which has helped to suppress the Scottish mortality rate further - but also means that they have more Covid patients left in hospital now than might be expected

If a record exists of the average length of hospital stay for a Covid-19 patient in each of the four home nations, then this might yield evidence for point 3.

They definitely need to see what went wrong with care homes , almost half of all overall deaths in care homes is not very good. However I was surprised that a good few were worse, Spain , Belgium , Norway and Sweden all over 50%.

Andy_JS said:

Federal US troops entering Portland isn't an "invasion". It's their country.

Unidentified federal agents seizing people of the streets is plain illegal.
In that respect it is an invasion, though the word is being used metaphorically.

https://twitter.com/39Magilla/status/1297249067857334272

ydoethur said:

Omnium said:

ydoethur said:

Omnium said:

NickPalmer said:

Philip_Thompson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Looks like The Sunday Times have a big story tonight

https://twitter.com/DavidCollinsST/status/1297219549868294146

Wonder if it will be true or another work of fiction like others they've bigged up then released this year.

We're always sorry to hear of people being murdered, of course, but is a report that it may have happened undetected 24 years ago really the main news tomorrow?

Where were you on the night of the incident Dr P?

You clearly have a high opinion of his memory if you think he can remember what he was doing on a particular day 24 years ago.

I have a very high opinion of Dr P - and all his faculties.

While we're here though what were you doing that night!!?

Well, I can assure you I wasn’t in Cheshire. Without digging out my diary for 1996 though, I couldn’t tell you what I actually was doing.

(And you’ll have to tell me the actual date in question, as I’m too much of a skinflint to read the Times.)

I've recently bought a couple of Agatha Christie novels - 'Five Little Pigs' and 'The Vicarage'. The whodunnit thing is great. Oddly it seems to have disappeared - I really watch almost zero current tv, but is there anything that follows that theme?

Black_Rook said:

Alistair said:

Black_Rook said:

CarlottaVance said:

Black_Rook said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Black_Rook said:

Today's Covid hospital patient total is 834 - down about another 10% in a week - and it looks like it could scrape in just below 800 tomorrow.

Incidentally, 30% of all remaining Covid patients are now in Scottish hospitals. As I've pointed out before, at the peak of the pandemic the number of hospital patients per head of population was approximately the same in all four constituent parts of the UK, so why the current figures are so skewed is anyone's guess.

Its strange given the amazing job Saint Nicola has done compared to Beastly BoZo . . .

We don't know whether this is a weakness or a strength. For all we know the Scottish NHS is being hyper cautious and is worried about letting those recovering from Covid go home too soon.

But I'm totally guessing as to the possible causes, which is why I contented myself with reporting the apparent anomaly.

Indeed, we may well have "Saved the NHS" by sacrificing patients.

Scotland's overall Covid death rate is a little lower than that in Wales and substantially lower than that in England (Northern Ireland does much better than Scotland, but I think that it probably benefited from relative geographic isolation and prompt action by the Republic.) OTOH, it has been oft reported that a greater proportion of Scottish Covid deaths have happened in care homes.

I suppose what could be happening is that...

1. The disease spread unevenly through the UK, hitting London first and hardest. This would mean that lockdown measures started to come into force at an earlier stage in the pandemic in Scotland, limiting its severity
2. The Scottish NHS panic flapped at the start of the pandemic, like everyone else, and threw out as many frail old people as quickly as possible to free up hospital beds. The situation in the care homes then developed in a similar fashion to the rest of the UK
3. However, perhaps the Scottish NHS modified its practices at some point and began to keep recovering Covid patients in hospital for longer? Therefore, later on in the pandemic, it has done a better job of keeping its Covid patients alive, which has helped to suppress the Scottish mortality rate further - but also means that they have more Covid patients left in hospital now than might be expected

If a record exists of the average length of hospital stay for a Covid-19 patient in each of the four home nations, then this might yield evidence for point 3.

The other weird thing is Scotland has less Covid ICU patients proportionally despite having more hospital patients.

But I suppose at such low numbers that might just be noise.

Looking at the numbers, Scotland's slightly low on that metric from the outset - but yes, the substantially lower proportions we're now seeing do appear to be the product of there being a mercifully very low total of very sick patients. Basically, only one in a million people in the UK is currently sick enough with Covid to require ventilation.

There is a slight disconnect between the England and Scotland stats in that regards as far as I can tell.

The England stat is, I think, for people on a ventilator. The scotland stat is for people in ICU of any form, not necessarily on a ventilator.

Philip_Thompson said:

Omnium said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Omnium said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Casino_Royale said:

Biden's biggest risk is if he just tries to win by boosting his base.

He needs to appeal to WWC in the swing states as well, and not be complacent.

Condemning the violence and disorder in the big cities is essential.

Considering the violence is getting stoked by Federal Agents roughing up unarmed peaceful protesters and 'moms' whom should he be condemning though?

You're stretching here. Federal Agents are the good guys. It's anarchy otherwise. I'm pretty sure we'd not like anarchy.

Things go wrong in this, but the sense of things isn't turned on its head.

I don't want anarchy but I don't want authoritarian abuse either.

I'm struggling to see how armed, unidentifiable Federal Agents with no ID tags attacking unarmed peaceful protestors and even the media are "the good guys". Perhaps you can explain that one to me?

I don't know the incident you're referring to.
Police-people of all sorts are part of society. They often do a tough job. There are enough of them to provide really forceful inertia against change. That's good, and that's bad. Nonetheless we have law and order forces that are almost impossible to hijack. The US does too.

The NHS has recently been the subject of singing praise, but the other public services are equally deserving of great respect. I'm sure this is true in other countries too.

If only it were true.

There's been plenty of evidence coming from Portland of armed Federal thugs beating people up and abusing their authority. I'm surprised you're not aware of it?

Federal Agents teargassed Portland's Mayor: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/23/us/portland-protest-tear-gas-mayor.html

Watch this and tell me why attacking a protester with a chemical weapon just for raising his voice is OK?
https://twitter.com/AnthonyMKreis/status/1287429577057472512

Or teargassing Moms:
https://twitter.com/JoshuaPotash/status/1285110266464698368

Or striking an unarmed and unmoving protester with a baton and teargas
https://twitter.com/PDXzane/status/1284726088187310080

Or federal agents with no ID tags taking people off the streets
https://twitter.com/dburbach/status/1283936410043637763

And the only justification for all this is graffiti.
https://twitter.com/JoshuaPotash/status/1283972378620506113

The list goes on and on and there's plenty of video evidence for what is going on. People have smartphones.

Trumpsky's actions in Portland are criminal conspiracy aimed at his own re-election. Any law enforcers who implemented his illegal orders deserve to be in prison - along with Trumpsky & Co.

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/JohnStuartWilso/status/1297136849513615361?s=20

Number (3) is possible, but difficult. And it would require the support of the IMF and the World Bank.

Gallowgate said:

Keir says get the schools open!

So he asking the government to do the thing that they desperately want to do? I’m not sure how much that helps.

rcs1000 said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/JohnStuartWilso/status/1297136849513615361?s=20

Number (3) is possible, but difficult. And it would require the support of the IMF and the World Bank.

Is there not a way around #2?

Nigelb said:

Omnium said:

ydoethur said:

Omnium said:

ydoethur said:

Omnium said:

NickPalmer said:

Philip_Thompson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Looks like The Sunday Times have a big story tonight

https://twitter.com/DavidCollinsST/status/1297219549868294146

Wonder if it will be true or another work of fiction like others they've bigged up then released this year.

We're always sorry to hear of people being murdered, of course, but is a report that it may have happened undetected 24 years ago really the main news tomorrow?

Where were you on the night of the incident Dr P?

You clearly have a high opinion of his memory if you think he can remember what he was doing on a particular day 24 years ago.

I have a very high opinion of Dr P - and all his faculties.

While we're here though what were you doing that night!!?

Well, I can assure you I wasn’t in Cheshire. Without digging out my diary for 1996 though, I couldn’t tell you what I actually was doing.

(And you’ll have to tell me the actual date in question, as I’m too much of a skinflint to read the Times.)

I've recently bought a couple of Agatha Christie novels - 'Five Little Pigs' and 'The Vicarage'. The whodunnit thing is great. Oddly it seems to have disappeared - I really watch almost zero current tv, but is there anything that follows that theme?

Well they are remaking Death on the Nile...

If you can put up with subtitles, the Korean series Stranger is brilliant. (On Netflix)

I'll happily put up with subtitles. Thanks.

CorrectHorseBattery said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/08/21/behind-red-wall-voters-still-love-boris-johnson-government

Internal polling revealed by the Telegraph earlier this week claimed that by next year Labour would be consistently five per cent ahead of the Conservative party due to growing public disillusionment over the party’s competence in Government.

Polling parity soon!

Yep. As I have posted several times: Johnson will be seriously behind by next summer.

rottenborough said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/08/21/behind-red-wall-voters-still-love-boris-johnson-government

Internal polling revealed by the Telegraph earlier this week claimed that by next year Labour would be consistently five per cent ahead of the Conservative party due to growing public disillusionment over the party’s competence in Government.

Polling parity soon!

Yep. As I have posted several times: Johnson will be seriously behind by next summer.

Perhaps not. A COVID-19 vaccine comes along quickly and the post-transition Brexit is a great success immediately? Possible.

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/JohnStuartWilso/status/1297136849513615361?s=20

Well, again, it's not entirely unlike Brexit - difficult but doable, and with a menu of possible choices to be made, none of which might necessarily be described as ideal. Obviously there's going to be a trade-off between bringing more policy levers under Scottish control and parting with some of the conveniences of the current arrangements.

The biggest issue may well turn out to be the sterling denominated debts of individuals and businesses in Scotland, which are owed primarily to institutions based in London. Assuming that the Scottish Parliament post-independence didn't attempt to convert them all to Scottish currency (which, for ease of reference, I'll refer to as dollars) by legislation - which would be a form of default and have very unwelcome consequences - then people in Scotland are going to be stuck with paying down their existing stock of debts in sterling whilst receiving their earnings in dollars.

Thus, if the dollar depreciates relative to the pound then the burden of the debt increases whilst Scottish exports to England become more competitive, whereas if the pound depreciates relative to the dollar then the inverse occurs. The only way to avoid these consequences of exchange rate volatility is to keep using the pound or to attempt to peg the dollar to it, both of which have the same effect of putting Scotland in an informal currency union with England, depriving it of important levers such as control of interest rates, and without the existing system of transfer payments to help make the arrangement workable. The relationship would be akin to that of Germany and one of the smaller states in the dysfunctional Eurozone: were the economic performances of Scotland and the rump UK to diverge significantly then Scotland would find itself stuck with an exchange rate and other policies tailored to the needs of its neighbour, with no recourse to a remedy.

Thinking about it, the Scottish Treasury would likely end up sharing a proportion of UK national debt as part of the carve-up of assets and liabilities, and that would also obviously be denominated in sterling, so probably the best option for Scotland is to float a new currency as soon as possible and then undertake a radical program of deregulation and tight control over spending, not unlike that instituted by Margaret Thatcher. The loss of transfer payments at independence will mean that existing Scottish public spending levels will be hard to sustain anyway, and a programme focussed on increasing Scotland's productivity and giving it sound money should yield more benefits, in terms of the effective reduction of Scotland's sterling-denominated debt pile through currency appreciation, than drawbacks.

Yes, that might do the trick. Independence, followed by Adam Smith.

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1297268590945751040

Black_Rook said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/JohnStuartWilso/status/1297136849513615361?s=20

Well, again, it's not entirely unlike Brexit - difficult but doable, and with a menu of possible choices to be made, none of which might necessarily be described as ideal. Obviously there's going to be a trade-off between bringing more policy levers under Scottish control and parting with some of the conveniences of the current arrangements.

The biggest issue may well turn out to be the sterling denominated debts of individuals and businesses in Scotland, which are owed primarily to institutions based in London. Assuming that the Scottish Parliament post-independence didn't attempt to convert them all to Scottish currency (which, for ease of reference, I'll refer to as dollars) by legislation - which would be a form of default and have very unwelcome consequences - then people in Scotland are going to be stuck with paying down their existing stock of debts in sterling whilst receiving their earnings in dollars.

Thus, if the dollar depreciates relative to the pound then the burden of the debt increases whilst Scottish exports to England become more competitive, whereas if the pound depreciates relative to the dollar then the inverse occurs. The only way to avoid these consequences of exchange rate volatility is to keep using the pound or to attempt to peg the dollar to it, both of which have the same effect of putting Scotland in an informal currency union with England, depriving it of important levers such as control of interest rates, and without the existing system of transfer payments to help make the arrangement workable. The relationship would be akin to that of Germany and one of the smaller states in the dysfunctional Eurozone: were the economic performances of Scotland and the rump UK to diverge significantly then Scotland would find itself stuck with an exchange rate and other policies tailored to the needs of its neighbour, with no recourse to a remedy.

Thinking about it, the Scottish Treasury would likely end up sharing a proportion of UK national debt as part of the carve-up of assets and liabilities, and that would also obviously be denominated in sterling, so probably the best option for Scotland is to float a new currency as soon as possible and then undertake a radical program of deregulation and tight control over spending, not unlike that instituted by Margaret Thatcher. The loss of transfer payments at independence will mean that existing Scottish public spending levels will be hard to sustain anyway, and a programme focussed on increasing Scotland's productivity and giving it sound money should yield more benefits, in terms of the effective reduction of Scotland's sterling-denominated debt pile through currency appreciation, than drawbacks.

Yes, that might do the trick. Independence, followed by Adam Smith.

Given most Scottish Nationalists are social democrats if not socialists whose main objective is to create a country closer to the Nordic countries than England, if they end up independent with the economic policies of Margaret Thatcher that rather defeats the object of the exercise

HYUFD said:

Black_Rook said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/JohnStuartWilso/status/1297136849513615361?s=20

Well, again, it's not entirely unlike Brexit - difficult but doable, and with a menu of possible choices to be made, none of which might necessarily be described as ideal. Obviously there's going to be a trade-off between bringing more policy levers under Scottish control and parting with some of the conveniences of the current arrangements.

The biggest issue may well turn out to be the sterling denominated debts of individuals and businesses in Scotland, which are owed primarily to institutions based in London. Assuming that the Scottish Parliament post-independence didn't attempt to convert them all to Scottish currency (which, for ease of reference, I'll refer to as dollars) by legislation - which would be a form of default and have very unwelcome consequences - then people in Scotland are going to be stuck with paying down their existing stock of debts in sterling whilst receiving their earnings in dollars.

Thus, if the dollar depreciates relative to the pound then the burden of the debt increases whilst Scottish exports to England become more competitive, whereas if the pound depreciates relative to the dollar then the inverse occurs. The only way to avoid these consequences of exchange rate volatility is to keep using the pound or to attempt to peg the dollar to it, both of which have the same effect of putting Scotland in an informal currency union with England, depriving it of important levers such as control of interest rates, and without the existing system of transfer payments to help make the arrangement workable. The relationship would be akin to that of Germany and one of the smaller states in the dysfunctional Eurozone: were the economic performances of Scotland and the rump UK to diverge significantly then Scotland would find itself stuck with an exchange rate and other policies tailored to the needs of its neighbour, with no recourse to a remedy.

Thinking about it, the Scottish Treasury would likely end up sharing a proportion of UK national debt as part of the carve-up of assets and liabilities, and that would also obviously be denominated in sterling, so probably the best option for Scotland is to float a new currency as soon as possible and then undertake a radical program of deregulation and tight control over spending, not unlike that instituted by Margaret Thatcher. The loss of transfer payments at independence will mean that existing Scottish public spending levels will be hard to sustain anyway, and a programme focussed on increasing Scotland's productivity and giving it sound money should yield more benefits, in terms of the effective reduction of Scotland's sterling-denominated debt pile through currency appreciation, than drawbacks.

Yes, that might do the trick. Independence, followed by Adam Smith.

Given most Scottish Nationalists are social democrats if not socialists whose main objective is to create a country closer to the Nordic countries than England, if they end up independent with the economic policies of Margaret Thatcher that rather defeats the object of the exercise

I know that! But the image is somewhat amusing.

Gallowgate said:

rottenborough said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/08/21/behind-red-wall-voters-still-love-boris-johnson-government

Internal polling revealed by the Telegraph earlier this week claimed that by next year Labour would be consistently five per cent ahead of the Conservative party due to growing public disillusionment over the party’s competence in Government.

Polling parity soon!

Yep. As I have posted several times: Johnson will be seriously behind by next summer.

Perhaps not. A COVID-19 vaccine comes along quickly and the post-transition Brexit is a great success immediately? Possible.

Big chance of a covid Vax, less so of a truly good Brexit deal

Carnyx said:

HYUFD said:

Carnyx said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

Philip_Thompson said:

HYUFD said:

Philip_Thompson said:

HYUFD said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Carnyx said:

HYUFD said:

Carnyx said:

HYUFD said:

Carnyx said:

felix said:

stodge said:

HYUFD said:

I would happily back a Labour or LD FM, though not a Green as they back independence.

I would also happily stand down all Scottish Conservative candidates for the constituency seats at Holyrood next year where the Scottish Conservatives were not in first or second place in 2021 and just stand Tory candidates for the list in those areas

Just so I'm clear - you would advocate Scottish Conservatives NOT standing in seats where they weren't first or second last time and not contesting any seat where they were second but the winner was Labour or Lib Dem and you would expect reciprocity.

Fair enough - Labour would be the Unionist Alliance candidate in twice as many SNP seats as the Conservative with the LDs in two or three others.

Some of the SNP seats are held with large majorities and 59 of the 63 SNP members won through the constituencies with just four coming off the Regional AMs. Indeed, Conservative, Labour and LD won 46 of 60 seats through the AM system.

In practice, taking 10-12 SNP seats would be enough to deprive the SNP-Green grouping of their majority with Lab, Con and LD having maybe 70-72 between them so a majority to form an administration but even if the Conservatives won more seats than Labour you would support a Labour FM if it were the price of Labour's support.

It is an interesting idea but assumes a level of voter cooperation which may not be there when push comes to shove.

Not to mention the effect on Labour oif actuallyt governing in coalition with the Tories. They're already doing it informally in local gmt and formally in Aberdeen (technically including Independents [= shy Tories in this context] and Labour party councillors technically still suspended).

And it coiuld lead to a split within the Labour Party as well, with a part of iut allying with the SNP, Greens and true Independent MSPs.

Fine, the support of Unionist Tories would far outweigh any nationalists who went SNP at Holyrood, it is Scottish Tories who ensure Ian Murray is still an MP.

You really don't read my posts. I didn;t say that Labour MSPs would join the SNP - simply that they might ally with the pro-independence parties. It's an important distinction.

Fine then they can be expelled from Labour and deselected given Starmer and Leonard have made clear Labour is a Unionist party

By when it would be too late.

The other problem for you is that a very significant proportion of Labour voters in Sxcotland are pro-independence as well as being anti-Tory.

A very, very significant proportion of Labour voters in Scotland, even if they would vote No, are more anti-Tory than they are anti-independence.

So what, if there is no Tory candidate they can still vote Labour not Tory

Not if Labour are in a pact with the Tories.

Lets say hypothetically this imaginary pact comes about and there's a potential Tory+Lab+LD rainbow coalition majority - are you suggesting Labour would make Ruth Davidson (or whoever) First Minister?

I don't think so. This is prima facie nonsense.

It does not matter, Labour can vote for a Labour FM but that is irrelevant all that matters is Sturgeon loses her majority next year a la May 2017 and there is a Unionist majority even if she stays FM, then cue the SNP civil war as Salmond prepares to seize the crown from a wounded Sturgeon in revenge for her and her allies treatment of him

But how does that deal with the invasion of armies of flying pigs in your scenario?

If you're relying upon desperation to tactical voting then you've already lost the election - as Remainers found out last time. You win by convincing people to vote for you, or not to vote for your opposition, not by clever tricks.

Not at Holyrood.

There if you are Unionists you win by reducing the SNP majority at the constituency level to a low enough level you can get a Unionist majority on the top up list where there will be multiple Unionist parties still standing.

The SNP will be the only Nationalist party at the constituency level, so it needs the Unionist Alliance to beat it

I doubt Labour or the Liberals will agree to any formal alliance with the Conservatives. What makes you think they will?

The Tories will stand down in all constituencies they are not first or second at Holyrood, Labour or the LDs do not need to agree anything

So the "Unionist Alliance" is basically the Tories admitting they are sh*t and giving up and going home?

You'll only be standing in 33% of constituencies. The Scottish and Unionist party indeed.

To help save the Union in seats they are not the best chance of beating the SNP and to avoid going full Madrid and Rajoy on Catalonia which they will have to do if the Nationalists get a majority given Boris' commitment to block indyref2 no matter what the cost

Electoral tricks won't save the union, just delay the inevitable.

Weak leftwingers like you certainly will do sod all to save it, despite the fact without Scotland there is near zero chance of there ever being a Labour government again, certainly without a Blairite leader.

However you can be ignored

It is not for me to save it. It has nothing to do with me. It's up to them.

And the best chance of that is uniting the Unionist vote at the Holyrood constituency level to meet the united Nationalist vote there

You're ****ing doing it again - confusing the pro-referendum, pro-independence and pro- 'Nationalist' elements, whatever that latter means - 'SNP' presumably.

There are/have been Green, Independent Labour, Independent Independent MSPs who would be furiouys to be calledf 'nationalist' by such as you.

Yes and they all stand on the list only and just let their chums in the SNP have a free run at the constituency level

No, they don't. The Greens, Mr Canavan, the SSP{ of yore, all went for and sometimes won constituencies.

The Greens stood for just 3 Holyrood constituences in 2016, the SSP for 0

Philip_Thompson said:

rcs1000 said:

rottenborough said:

rcs1000 said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/JohnStuartWilso/status/1297136849513615361?s=20

Number (3) is possible, but difficult. And it would require the support of the IMF and the World Bank.

Is there not a way around #2?

Actually, a mix of two and three is probably the easiest option of all for an independent Scotland. The Scottish Groat would be pegged one-to-one with the Euro, and the ECB (on the basis that Scotland would be joining the EU in due course) could help support the peg.

Couldn't Scotland simply jump straight to #2?

It takes unanimity to join the EU and it takes unanimity to amend the EU treaties (including the single currency rules).

So with the unique nature of Scotland leaving the UK and rejoining the EU could it not simply seek to jump straight from Britain & the pound to ending a transition period immediately in the EU & the Euro?

That would take unanimous agreement but so does simply joining in the first place. And if the EU decides it wants to facilitate Scottish membership of the EU (and inflict a bloody nose upon the UK) they could simply agree to it could they not?

I suppose that might be theoretically possible. Of course, the logic of jumping out of a currency union where you fret constantly about your interests being dominated by your larger neighbour, and into a currency union where your interests will be entirely dictated by those of your many larger partners (and where there's no effective mechanism for fiscal transfers and the ongoing issuance of common debt either) is somewhat questionable. But Edinburgh is the capital of Scotland, not Vulcan.

Black_Rook said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/JohnStuartWilso/status/1297136849513615361?s=20

Well, again, it's not entirely unlike Brexit - difficult but doable, and with a menu of possible choices to be made, none of which might necessarily be described as ideal. Obviously there's going to be a trade-off between bringing more policy levers under Scottish control and parting with some of the conveniences of the current arrangements.

The biggest issue may well turn out to be the sterling denominated debts of individuals and businesses in Scotland, which are owed primarily to institutions based in London. Assuming that the Scottish Parliament post-independence didn't attempt to convert them all to Scottish currency (which, for ease of reference, I'll refer to as dollars) by legislation - which would be a form of default and have very unwelcome consequences - then people in Scotland are going to be stuck with paying down their existing stock of debts in sterling whilst receiving their earnings in dollars.

Thus, if the dollar depreciates relative to the pound then the burden of the debt increases whilst Scottish exports to England become more competitive, whereas if the pound depreciates relative to the dollar then the inverse occurs. The only way to avoid these consequences of exchange rate volatility is to keep using the pound or to attempt to peg the dollar to it, both of which have the same effect of putting Scotland in an informal currency union with England, depriving it of important levers such as control of interest rates, and without the existing system of transfer payments to help make the arrangement workable. The relationship would be akin to that of Germany and one of the smaller states in the dysfunctional Eurozone: were the economic performances of Scotland and the rump UK to diverge significantly then Scotland would find itself stuck with an exchange rate and other policies tailored to the needs of its neighbour, with no recourse to a remedy.

Thinking about it, the Scottish Treasury would likely end up sharing a proportion of UK national debt as part of the carve-up of assets and liabilities, and that would also obviously be denominated in sterling, so probably the best option for Scotland is to float a new currency as soon as possible and then undertake a radical program of deregulation and tight control over spending, not unlike that instituted by Margaret Thatcher. The loss of transfer payments at independence will mean that existing Scottish public spending levels will be hard to sustain anyway, and a programme focussed on increasing Scotland's productivity and giving it sound money should yield more benefits, in terms of the effective reduction of Scotland's sterling-denominated debt pile through currency appreciation, than drawbacks.

Yes, that might do the trick. Independence, followed by Adam Smith.

That's why I support Scottish independence. Because it will force Scotland to make grown up decisions and simply blaming the English or spending without being liable for taxes will no longer be an option.

rcs1000 said:

rottenborough said:

rcs1000 said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/JohnStuartWilso/status/1297136849513615361?s=20

Number (3) is possible, but difficult. And it would require the support of the IMF and the World Bank.

Is there not a way around #2?

Actually, a mix of two and three is probably the easiest option of all for an independent Scotland. The Scottish Groat would be pegged one-to-one with the Euro, and the ECB (on the basis that Scotland would be joining the EU in due course) could help support the peg.

So it would fluctuate vis a vis rUK £ sterling then, in which Scotland does 60%+ of its trade.

@Philip_Thompson

Biden should condemn the extreme behaviour of both sides and appeal for calm.

Philip_Thompson said:

rcs1000 said:

rottenborough said:

rcs1000 said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/JohnStuartWilso/status/1297136849513615361?s=20

Number (3) is possible, but difficult. And it would require the support of the IMF and the World Bank.

Is there not a way around #2?

Actually, a mix of two and three is probably the easiest option of all for an independent Scotland. The Scottish Groat would be pegged one-to-one with the Euro, and the ECB (on the basis that Scotland would be joining the EU in due course) could help support the peg.

Couldn't Scotland simply jump straight to #2?

It takes unanimity to join the EU and it takes unanimity to amend the EU treaties (including the single currency rules).

So with the unique nature of Scotland leaving the UK and rejoining the EU could it not simply seek to jump straight from Britain & the pound to ending a transition period immediately in the EU & the Euro?

That would take unanimous agreement but so does simply joining in the first place. And if the EU decides it wants to facilitate Scottish membership of the EU (and inflict a bloody nose upon the UK) they could simply agree to it could they not?

Spain.

Gallowgate said:

I don’t see how immediate Scottish membership of both the Euro and the EU would give rUK a “bloody nose”. It would be good for them and by extension us.

It would mean tariffs on Scottish exports and English exports if we were on WTO terms Brexit and border posts across the Scottish border

Casino_Royale said:

Philip_Thompson said:

rcs1000 said:

rottenborough said:

rcs1000 said:

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/JohnStuartWilso/status/1297136849513615361?s=20

Number (3) is possible, but difficult. And it would require the support of the IMF and the World Bank.

Is there not a way around #2?

Actually, a mix of two and three is probably the easiest option of all for an independent Scotland. The Scottish Groat would be pegged one-to-one with the Euro, and the ECB (on the basis that Scotland would be joining the EU in due course) could help support the peg.

Couldn't Scotland simply jump straight to #2?

It takes unanimity to join the EU and it takes unanimity to amend the EU treaties (including the single currency rules).

So with the unique nature of Scotland leaving the UK and rejoining the EU could it not simply seek to jump straight from Britain & the pound to ending a transition period immediately in the EU & the Euro?

That would take unanimous agreement but so does simply joining in the first place. And if the EU decides it wants to facilitate Scottish membership of the EU (and inflict a bloody nose upon the UK) they could simply agree to it could they not?

Spain.

If the referendum isn't wildcat and is endorsed by the UK Parliament then I don't think Spain will have a problem with it. Spain will have a problem giving succour to a wildcat referendum.

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/JohnStuartWilso/status/1297136849513615361?s=20

Uncertain or even detrimental options 'later' doesn't always overcome a profession that it will all work out and is less important to resolve than settling the overall principle now. It's not always inherently unreasonable, so long as it is acknowledged that the difficult questions are, well, difficult, and being pushed to one side. It's different if it is pretended the difficult questions do not exist.