politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Betfair WH2020 next President Market is about to reach £50
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Betfair WH2020 next President Market is about to reach £50m of bets matched and there are still more than three months till polling day
Above is a screenshot of the Betfair market on who will be next president. We’ve talked about the odds on this for well over a year but what is striking this afternoon is how close the total matched is to £50m. That we should get to that sort of total with more than 3 months to go until November 2nd is quite extraordinary and this will almost certainly be the biggest political betting event of all time.
Comments
-
First , like Boris.0
-
I like the title in vanilla:
"The Betfair WH2020 next President Market is about to reach £50"
2 -
FPT
I would just like to point out that at the GE 2019, I was telling people how much Corbyn was loathed, no one seemed to take it seriously. Loathed just about describes it correctly, if you put utterly in front of it.0 -
They were focused on fighting the one true enemy - other people in the Labour Party - and that justifies all.Malmesbury said:
I keep trying to work out the mentality of those who thought that was a good idea.Scott_xP said:
0 -
Currently feeling comfortable with my Biden backing and hedging so green whatever happens.
Thanks, once again, to Mr. B who tipped at 36 and 12 (presidency and nomination respectively).
I know many others here will be far greener but given my very ropey history in such things glad to be green.0 -
Tony Blair is Not Optimistic about The Bug
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-53525470
The stats support him. i just noticed that in the last two days the world reported 275-280,000 new cases.
By a margin, these are the highest daily totals. This damn virus is ACCELERATING0 -
Mr. kle4, heretics are more hated than heathens.1
-
Any stats on the number of tests done?LadyG said:Tony Blair is Not Optimistic about The Bug
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-53525470
The stats support him. i just noticed that in the last two days the world reported 275-280,000 new cases.
By a margin, these are the highest daily totals. This damn virus is ACCELERATING0 -
These are hard times, you knowRobD said:I like the title in vanilla:
"The Betfair WH2020 next President Market is about to reach £50"
0 -
Mr Dancer, two days ago was the 811th anniversary of the Massacre of Beziers.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. kle4, heretics are more hated than heathens.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Massacre_at_Béziers0 -
Always has been. We are a bit blinded, and perhaps blase, by having had it early and quite hard.LadyG said:Tony Blair is Not Optimistic about The Bug
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-53525470
The stats support him. i just noticed that in the last two days the world reported 275-280,000 new cases.
By a margin, these are the highest daily totals. This damn virus is ACCELERATING0 -
Its accelerating in several countries where it started much later, notably India which is likely to end up with even more cases than the US. But in most of the countries in the first wave it is being controlled at much lower levels, if not eliminated.LadyG said:Tony Blair is Not Optimistic about The Bug
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-53525470
The stats support him. i just noticed that in the last two days the world reported 275-280,000 new cases.
By a margin, these are the highest daily totals. This damn virus is ACCELERATING
So we have established that we can control this at a very considerable cost. We may need to keep doing that (the handwashing, the masks, the social distancing, the limited use of public transport etc) until we have working vaccines. We are rolling the dice that one or more of those trials comes off.
The tricky one is schools. We need to get our kids back to school but if anything is going to cause infections to take off again it is surely that. Scottish schools are due to go back in a month. We won't have a vaccine by then.0 -
Yes that's crucial, and it is hard, if not impossible, to collate the data globally.tlg86 said:
Any stats on the number of tests done?LadyG said:Tony Blair is Not Optimistic about The Bug
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-53525470
The stats support him. i just noticed that in the last two days the world reported 275-280,000 new cases.
By a margin, these are the highest daily totals. This damn virus is ACCELERATING
What we can say is that
1. America's rise in case-numbers is not a by-product of rising tests
"The average number of tests conducted [in the USA] has grown by 80% since early June to 780,000 per day. Daily case counts have grown by 215% in the same period."
That's from the NY Times, yesterday
and
2. The number of global deaths is also rising, albeit slower than the number of cases. At the end of May the average daily death toll was ~4,200, now it is ~5,2000 -
Anyways. Just got back from the local shop, where mask wearing has been very poor.
Today all in masks. Bloke walks in without one, everyone gives him the evils, and he says "Do you sell face masks?"
It appears we will wear them if told to.
Quite why it took so long is another matter.0 -
An interesting chat with one of our Covid-19 doctors at lunch. Only 26 inpatients now despite all the hype about Leicester outbreak, but seeing a different spectrum of disease. Far fewer with respiratory disease, but more vascular and intestinal disease, renal failure, strange strokes etc. Weird stuff and some bad outcomes. Has the virus mutated, at least locally?LadyG said:
Yes that's crucial, and it is hard, if not impossible, to collate the data globally.tlg86 said:
Any stats on the number of tests done?LadyG said:Tony Blair is Not Optimistic about The Bug
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-53525470
The stats support him. i just noticed that in the last two days the world reported 275-280,000 new cases.
By a margin, these are the highest daily totals. This damn virus is ACCELERATING
What we can say is that
1. America's rise in case-numbers is not a by-product of rising tests
"The average number of tests conducted [in the USA] has grown by 80% since early June to 780,000 per day. Daily case counts have grown by 215% in the same period."
That's from the NY Times, yesterday
and
2. The number of global deaths is also rising, albeit slower than the number of cases. At the end of May the average daily death toll was ~4,200, now it is ~5,200
I think the area has been flooded by swabbing, as only 1.7% of tests are coming back positive now. Track and Trace not able to contact anyone for 35% of index patients.0 -
Sadly, even this mildly pessimistic take is probably too positive. The virus is bouncing back in European countries where it was once "controlled".DavidL said:
Its accelerating in several countries where it started much later, notably India which is likely to end up with even more cases than the US. But in most of the countries in the first wave it is being controlled at much lower levels, if not eliminated.LadyG said:Tony Blair is Not Optimistic about The Bug
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-53525470
The stats support him. i just noticed that in the last two days the world reported 275-280,000 new cases.
By a margin, these are the highest daily totals. This damn virus is ACCELERATING
So we have established that we can control this at a very considerable cost. We may need to keep doing that (the handwashing, the masks, the social distancing, the limited use of public transport etc) until we have working vaccines. We are rolling the dice that one or more of those trials comes off.
The tricky one is schools. We need to get our kids back to school but if anything is going to cause infections to take off again it is surely that. Scottish schools are due to go back in a month. We won't have a vaccine by then.
eg Spain, France, Germany
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/24/europe-warns-of-need-for-vigilance-as-covid-19-cases-rise-sharply
Also Australia
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/australia-coronavirus-cases-surge-as-nine-in-ten-ignore-isolation-rules-lxpj02djp
"Australia coronavirus cases surge as ‘nine in ten ignore isolation rules’"
And there are others.0 -
On topic I think that people are scared by Trump's somewhat freakish win in 2016 and the tendency of incumbent Presidents to be re-elected. But when you look at the facts and performance of this Presidency it is astonishing that it is this close.
I am a bit reminded of Boris's run for the Tory leadership. So many, talking with their hearts, said that he was in trouble for this and that, that this was going to damage his campaign, etc etc. But the reality was that it wasn't close at the end and never had been. I very much hope that in November we will sigh with relief and realise the same of this buffoon.0 -
The Tories will be disappointed with the fourth stat here though; https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1286678743289929734Big_G_NorthWales said:0 -
Interesting, and somewhat troubling. My friend who is seriously ill, with "covid-related" disease, has baffled his London doctors, they can't quite work out why he is SO ill.Foxy said:
An interesting chat with one of our Covid-19 doctors at lunch. Only 26 inpatients now despite all the hype about Leicester outbreak, but seeing a different spectrum of disease. Far fewer with respiratory disease, but more vascular and intestinal disease, renal failure, strange strokes etc. Weird stuff and some bad outcomes. Has the virus mutated, at least locally?LadyG said:
Yes that's crucial, and it is hard, if not impossible, to collate the data globally.tlg86 said:
Any stats on the number of tests done?LadyG said:Tony Blair is Not Optimistic about The Bug
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-53525470
The stats support him. i just noticed that in the last two days the world reported 275-280,000 new cases.
By a margin, these are the highest daily totals. This damn virus is ACCELERATING
What we can say is that
1. America's rise in case-numbers is not a by-product of rising tests
"The average number of tests conducted [in the USA] has grown by 80% since early June to 780,000 per day. Daily case counts have grown by 215% in the same period."
That's from the NY Times, yesterday
and
2. The number of global deaths is also rising, albeit slower than the number of cases. At the end of May the average daily death toll was ~4,200, now it is ~5,200
I think the area has been flooded by swabbing, as only 1.7% of tests are coming back positive now. Track and Trace not able to contact anyone for 35% of index patients.
The virus is a shape-shifter?0 -
Not great numbers in the UK again today.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/?_ga=2.177876263.342558573.1595341587-685227072.1592983386
The hospital figures are very good but our progress seems to have stalled.0 -
That's pillar 1 & 2 on the testing - which means that intervention in outbreak areas is finding more asymptomatic cases.DavidL said:Not great numbers in the UK again today.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/?_ga=2.177876263.342558573.1595341587-685227072.1592983386
The hospital figures are very good but our progress seems to have stalled.
The death number are reporting day, not day of death, which makes them pretty much useless.
1 -
It has stalled because we've started easing lockdown wearing masks.DavidL said:Not great numbers in the UK again today.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/?_ga=2.177876263.342558573.1595341587-685227072.1592983386
The hospital figures are very good but our progress seems to have stalled.0 -
To quote the great Brian Close - he had that covered for everything but uneven bounce.
Pope living very dangerously here.0 -
The giveaway is in the inflammatory markers in blood tests. Those seem to be very predictive of bad outcomes.LadyG said:
Interesting, and somewhat troubling. My friend who is seriously ill, with "covid-related" disease, has baffled his London doctors, they can't quite work out why he is SO ill.Foxy said:
An interesting chat with one of our Covid-19 doctors at lunch. Only 26 inpatients now despite all the hype about Leicester outbreak, but seeing a different spectrum of disease. Far fewer with respiratory disease, but more vascular and intestinal disease, renal failure, strange strokes etc. Weird stuff and some bad outcomes. Has the virus mutated, at least locally?LadyG said:
Yes that's crucial, and it is hard, if not impossible, to collate the data globally.tlg86 said:
Any stats on the number of tests done?LadyG said:Tony Blair is Not Optimistic about The Bug
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-53525470
The stats support him. i just noticed that in the last two days the world reported 275-280,000 new cases.
By a margin, these are the highest daily totals. This damn virus is ACCELERATING
What we can say is that
1. America's rise in case-numbers is not a by-product of rising tests
"The average number of tests conducted [in the USA] has grown by 80% since early June to 780,000 per day. Daily case counts have grown by 215% in the same period."
That's from the NY Times, yesterday
and
2. The number of global deaths is also rising, albeit slower than the number of cases. At the end of May the average daily death toll was ~4,200, now it is ~5,200
I think the area has been flooded by swabbing, as only 1.7% of tests are coming back positive now. Track and Trace not able to contact anyone for 35% of index patients.
The virus is a shape-shifter?
0 -
Been down slough high street this afternoon very little compliance maybe 20% with masks and even those with them dont seem to always pull them up when entering a shop. Doesnt seem much different mask wise to yesterday.dixiedean said:Anyways. Just got back from the local shop, where mask wearing has been very poor.
Today all in masks. Bloke walks in without one, everyone gives him the evils, and he says "Do you sell face masks?"
It appears we will wear them if told to.
Quite why it took so long is another matter.0 -
Is that not a pretty good number for the Tories on the NHS?ydoethur said:
The Tories will be disappointed with the fourth stat here though; https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1286678743289929734Big_G_NorthWales said:0 -
According to some NHS professionals I know the reason it has taken so long is that we didn't have the supplies in April/May to allow public use of them.dixiedean said:Anyways. Just got back from the local shop, where mask wearing has been very poor.
Today all in masks. Bloke walks in without one, everyone gives him the evils, and he says "Do you sell face masks?"
It appears we will wear them if told to.
Quite why it took so long is another matter.
So very few people would have been able to go out and get essentials, ditto key workers, due to the mask shortage.1 -
What are "inflammatory markers"?Foxy said:
The giveaway is in the inflammatory markers in blood tests. Those seem to be very predictive of bad outcomes.LadyG said:
Interesting, and somewhat troubling. My friend who is seriously ill, with "covid-related" disease, has baffled his London doctors, they can't quite work out why he is SO ill.Foxy said:
An interesting chat with one of our Covid-19 doctors at lunch. Only 26 inpatients now despite all the hype about Leicester outbreak, but seeing a different spectrum of disease. Far fewer with respiratory disease, but more vascular and intestinal disease, renal failure, strange strokes etc. Weird stuff and some bad outcomes. Has the virus mutated, at least locally?LadyG said:
Yes that's crucial, and it is hard, if not impossible, to collate the data globally.tlg86 said:
Any stats on the number of tests done?LadyG said:Tony Blair is Not Optimistic about The Bug
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-53525470
The stats support him. i just noticed that in the last two days the world reported 275-280,000 new cases.
By a margin, these are the highest daily totals. This damn virus is ACCELERATING
What we can say is that
1. America's rise in case-numbers is not a by-product of rising tests
"The average number of tests conducted [in the USA] has grown by 80% since early June to 780,000 per day. Daily case counts have grown by 215% in the same period."
That's from the NY Times, yesterday
and
2. The number of global deaths is also rising, albeit slower than the number of cases. At the end of May the average daily death toll was ~4,200, now it is ~5,200
I think the area has been flooded by swabbing, as only 1.7% of tests are coming back positive now. Track and Trace not able to contact anyone for 35% of index patients.
The virus is a shape-shifter?
Worth noting that my friend was a very heavy smoker. Gave up four years ago. The docs are sure that is relevant.0 -
Thanks for completing the setydoethur said:
The Tories will be disappointed with the fourth stat here though; https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1286678743289929734Big_G_NorthWales said:
0 -
Wow, revealing her senior Downing Street source! Bold move.Big_G_NorthWales said:2 -
One thing that has been reported locally is that PMs of those who died showed clotting in almost every organ. I would presume those being treated now receive warfarin or similar but clots can of course do a lot of damage as well as kill.LadyG said:
Interesting, and somewhat troubling. My friend who is seriously ill, with "covid-related" disease, has baffled his London doctors, they can't quite work out why he is SO ill.Foxy said:
An interesting chat with one of our Covid-19 doctors at lunch. Only 26 inpatients now despite all the hype about Leicester outbreak, but seeing a different spectrum of disease. Far fewer with respiratory disease, but more vascular and intestinal disease, renal failure, strange strokes etc. Weird stuff and some bad outcomes. Has the virus mutated, at least locally?LadyG said:
Yes that's crucial, and it is hard, if not impossible, to collate the data globally.tlg86 said:
Any stats on the number of tests done?LadyG said:Tony Blair is Not Optimistic about The Bug
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-53525470
The stats support him. i just noticed that in the last two days the world reported 275-280,000 new cases.
By a margin, these are the highest daily totals. This damn virus is ACCELERATING
What we can say is that
1. America's rise in case-numbers is not a by-product of rising tests
"The average number of tests conducted [in the USA] has grown by 80% since early June to 780,000 per day. Daily case counts have grown by 215% in the same period."
That's from the NY Times, yesterday
and
2. The number of global deaths is also rising, albeit slower than the number of cases. At the end of May the average daily death toll was ~4,200, now it is ~5,200
I think the area has been flooded by swabbing, as only 1.7% of tests are coming back positive now. Track and Trace not able to contact anyone for 35% of index patients.
The virus is a shape-shifter?0 -
I see USA has had 3 days of 1000+ deaths in a row now.0
-
Schools are clearly a concern, but there are some grounds for optimism on that front. The French ordered all their kids back to school a month ago, and that didn't seem to cause a serious problem. Cases there are now trending upwards, but my (admittedly limited) understanding is that the finger of blame there, as in Spain, is being pointed at young adults rather than schoolchildren.DavidL said:
Its accelerating in several countries where it started much later, notably India which is likely to end up with even more cases than the US. But in most of the countries in the first wave it is being controlled at much lower levels, if not eliminated.LadyG said:Tony Blair is Not Optimistic about The Bug
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-53525470
The stats support him. i just noticed that in the last two days the world reported 275-280,000 new cases.
By a margin, these are the highest daily totals. This damn virus is ACCELERATING
So we have established that we can control this at a very considerable cost. We may need to keep doing that (the handwashing, the masks, the social distancing, the limited use of public transport etc) until we have working vaccines. We are rolling the dice that one or more of those trials comes off.
The tricky one is schools. We need to get our kids back to school but if anything is going to cause infections to take off again it is surely that. Scottish schools are due to go back in a month. We won't have a vaccine by then.
Speaking more broadly, it looks like both of those countries are experiencing difficulty keeping a lid on cases at the moment, whereas hospitalisations, ICU beds and the 7-day average for deaths (even accounting for PHE's bent statistics) continue to trend steadily downwards in the UK, and the slight increase in new cases appears to be a function of blanket testing in the remaining hotspots rather than the disease taking off again amongst the population at large. Now, are we just trending behind Spain and France, so that we might expect things to start to go pear-shaped in the near future, or is the UK doing something fundamentally different that's keeping the dreaded R number in check? Is it something as simple as our twenty-somethings choosing, for whatever reason, not to go out boozing very much, coupled with the fact that the nightclubs have been kept closed?0 -
Nah, under David Cameron (pbuh) the Tories led Labour on the NHS on a regular basis.DavidL said:
Is that not a pretty good number for the Tories on the NHS?ydoethur said:
The Tories will be disappointed with the fourth stat here though; https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1286678743289929734Big_G_NorthWales said:
At the apotheosis of the May premiership in early 2017 the Tories led on this metric occasionally.0 -
Yes.DavidL said:
Is that not a pretty good number for the Tories on the NHS?ydoethur said:
The Tories will be disappointed with the fourth stat here though; https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1286678743289929734Big_G_NorthWales said:0 -
The England all settings deaths by day of death -Malmesbury said:
That's pillar 1 & 2 on the testing - which means that intervention in outbreak areas is finding more asymptomatic cases.DavidL said:Not great numbers in the UK again today.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/?_ga=2.177876263.342558573.1595341587-685227072.1592983386
The hospital figures are very good but our progress seems to have stalled.
The death number are reporting day, not day of death, which makes them pretty much useless.
Note that these are the numbers that include any previously infected who recover, and are killed crossing the road, falling down stairs or by mad lawyers with baseball bats.
0 -
it's a feeble excuse. By mid February the government should have seen this virus coming, realised why masks are so important, and got manufacturers to focus on making billions of 'em.TheScreamingEagles said:
According to some NHS professionals I know the reason it has taken so long is that we didn't have the supplies in April/May to allow public use of them.dixiedean said:Anyways. Just got back from the local shop, where mask wearing has been very poor.
Today all in masks. Bloke walks in without one, everyone gives him the evils, and he says "Do you sell face masks?"
It appears we will wear them if told to.
Quite why it took so long is another matter.
So very few people would have been able to go out and get essentials, ditto key workers, due to the mask shortage.
By March, South Korea had a weekly mask ration available for every citizen.1 -
Approval Ratings:
Starmer:
A: 37%
D : 23%
NET: +14% (-4)
Sturgeon:
A: 37%
D : 30%
NET: +7% (-6)
Johnson:
A: 43%
D : 38%
NET: +5% (-5)
Berry/Bartley:
A: 17%
D : 20%
NET: -3% (-4)
Davey/Pack:
A: 15%
D : 22%
NET: -7% (-4)
Which political party do you trust the most…
With the economy?
CON: 41%
LAB: 27%
OTH: 14%
To tackle poverty?
LAB: 37%
CON: 27%
OTH: 15%
To tackle crime?
CON: 38%
LAB: 27%
OTH: 14%
To support the NHS?
LAB: 37%
CON: 31%
OTH: 14%
With immigration?
CON: 36%
LAB: 23%
OTH: 17%
To protect the environment?
CON: 26%
LAB: 22%
GRN: 20%
OTH: 12%
To support the education system?
CON: 33%
LAB: 31%
OTH: 17%
With foreign affairs?
CON: 37%
LAB: 31%
OTH: 16%
To what extent, if at all, would you support a four-day work week?
Support: 60%
Oppose: 11%0 -
In March our PM was shaking the hands of those with Covid-19 and boasting about it.LadyG said:
it's a feeble excuse. By mid February the government should have seen this virus coming, realised why masks are so important, and got manufacturers to focus on making billions of 'em.TheScreamingEagles said:
According to some NHS professionals I know the reason it has taken so long is that we didn't have the supplies in April/May to allow public use of them.dixiedean said:Anyways. Just got back from the local shop, where mask wearing has been very poor.
Today all in masks. Bloke walks in without one, everyone gives him the evils, and he says "Do you sell face masks?"
It appears we will wear them if told to.
Quite why it took so long is another matter.
So very few people would have been able to go out and get essentials, ditto key workers, due to the mask shortage.
By March, South Korea had a weekly mask ration available for every citizen.0 -
Via Redfield0
-
I won't go into further detail but that does sound highly relevant to my poor friend's illness.DavidL said:
One thing that has been reported locally is that PMs of those who died showed clotting in almost every organ. I would presume those being treated now receive warfarin or similar but clots can of course do a lot of damage as well as kill.LadyG said:
Interesting, and somewhat troubling. My friend who is seriously ill, with "covid-related" disease, has baffled his London doctors, they can't quite work out why he is SO ill.Foxy said:
An interesting chat with one of our Covid-19 doctors at lunch. Only 26 inpatients now despite all the hype about Leicester outbreak, but seeing a different spectrum of disease. Far fewer with respiratory disease, but more vascular and intestinal disease, renal failure, strange strokes etc. Weird stuff and some bad outcomes. Has the virus mutated, at least locally?LadyG said:
Yes that's crucial, and it is hard, if not impossible, to collate the data globally.tlg86 said:
Any stats on the number of tests done?LadyG said:Tony Blair is Not Optimistic about The Bug
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-53525470
The stats support him. i just noticed that in the last two days the world reported 275-280,000 new cases.
By a margin, these are the highest daily totals. This damn virus is ACCELERATING
What we can say is that
1. America's rise in case-numbers is not a by-product of rising tests
"The average number of tests conducted [in the USA] has grown by 80% since early June to 780,000 per day. Daily case counts have grown by 215% in the same period."
That's from the NY Times, yesterday
and
2. The number of global deaths is also rising, albeit slower than the number of cases. At the end of May the average daily death toll was ~4,200, now it is ~5,200
I think the area has been flooded by swabbing, as only 1.7% of tests are coming back positive now. Track and Trace not able to contact anyone for 35% of index patients.
The virus is a shape-shifter?0 -
It's unclear to me why Ms Clinton is still sub 5000
-
Yes. Ludicrous. One day he will have to atone for his dangerous flippancy.TheScreamingEagles said:
In March our PM was shaking the hands of those with Covid-19 and boasting about it.LadyG said:
it's a feeble excuse. By mid February the government should have seen this virus coming, realised why masks are so important, and got manufacturers to focus on making billions of 'em.TheScreamingEagles said:
According to some NHS professionals I know the reason it has taken so long is that we didn't have the supplies in April/May to allow public use of them.dixiedean said:Anyways. Just got back from the local shop, where mask wearing has been very poor.
Today all in masks. Bloke walks in without one, everyone gives him the evils, and he says "Do you sell face masks?"
It appears we will wear them if told to.
Quite why it took so long is another matter.
So very few people would have been able to go out and get essentials, ditto key workers, due to the mask shortage.
By March, South Korea had a weekly mask ration available for every citizen.
He just did not understand what was coming down the track.1 -
The available statistics are bordering on the useless in terms of trends but 768 new cases is still quite a lot.Malmesbury said:
That's pillar 1 & 2 on the testing - which means that intervention in outbreak areas is finding more asymptomatic cases.DavidL said:Not great numbers in the UK again today.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/?_ga=2.177876263.342558573.1595341587-685227072.1592983386
The hospital figures are very good but our progress seems to have stalled.
The death number are reporting day, not day of death, which makes them pretty much useless.0 -
Yes. Trump ought to be longer. For me, a good comparison is our GE. There too, people were unduly influenced by a previous shock (2017) and as a consequence underestimated the chance of the obvious - polls right, Con landslide. I predict Trump will be a much bigger price by eve of election. And my call remains Biden to win, Trump under 200 in the EC.DavidL said:On topic I think that people are scared by Trump's somewhat freakish win in 2016 and the tendency of incumbent Presidents to be re-elected. But when you look at the facts and performance of this Presidency it is astonishing that it is this close.
I am a bit reminded of Boris's run for the Tory leadership. So many, talking with their hearts, said that he was in trouble for this and that, that this was going to damage his campaign, etc etc. But the reality was that it wasn't close at the end and never had been. I very much hope that in November we will sigh with relief and realise the same of this buffoon.0 -
You poor fool.LadyG said:
it's a feeble excuse. By mid February the government should have seen this virus coming, realised why masks are so important, and got manufacturers to focus on making billions of 'em.TheScreamingEagles said:
According to some NHS professionals I know the reason it has taken so long is that we didn't have the supplies in April/May to allow public use of them.dixiedean said:Anyways. Just got back from the local shop, where mask wearing has been very poor.
Today all in masks. Bloke walks in without one, everyone gives him the evils, and he says "Do you sell face masks?"
It appears we will wear them if told to.
Quite why it took so long is another matter.
So very few people would have been able to go out and get essentials, ditto key workers, due to the mask shortage.
By March, South Korea had a weekly mask ration available for every citizen.
Haven't you been reading @NerysHughes posts? South Korea and other countries where masks work are irrelevant. The only place that matters is Spain, which implemented mask rules in shops (oh yeah, and opened nightclubs), and cases rose.
Therefore masks cause CV-19.4 -
138 dead. Almost a plane crash load.
138 dead in any incident in the UK would have led the news for days if not months a mere 6 months ago.0 -
On the train home having ridden my bike from Tees to Tyne. Train perhaps 30% full. 100% mask use, albeit with a table full of lads taking them off to drink Stella1
-
I think in Cameron's case the Ivan factor played a part. Which is an unacceptable price for any father to pay.TheScreamingEagles said:
Nah, under David Cameron (pbuh) the Tories led Labour on the NHS on a regular basis.DavidL said:
Is that not a pretty good number for the Tories on the NHS?ydoethur said:
The Tories will be disappointed with the fourth stat here though; https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1286678743289929734Big_G_NorthWales said:
At the apotheosis of the May premiership in early 2017 the Tories led on this metric occasionally.0 -
"what were Daimler executives smoking when they ditched their 10pc holding of Tesla in 2014, concluding that the company was going nowhere? "
Telegraph0 -
Looking at these polling figures I do not see Boris going anytime soonCorrectHorseBattery said:Approval Ratings:
Starmer:
A: 37%
D : 23%
NET: +14% (-4)
Sturgeon:
A: 37%
D : 30%
NET: +7% (-6)
Johnson:
A: 43%
D : 38%
NET: +5% (-5)
Berry/Bartley:
A: 17%
D : 20%
NET: -3% (-4)
Davey/Pack:
A: 15%
D : 22%
NET: -7% (-4)
Which political party do you trust the most…
With the economy?
CON: 41%
LAB: 27%
OTH: 14%
To tackle poverty?
LAB: 37%
CON: 27%
OTH: 15%
To tackle crime?
CON: 38%
LAB: 27%
OTH: 14%
To support the NHS?
LAB: 37%
CON: 31%
OTH: 14%
With immigration?
CON: 36%
LAB: 23%
OTH: 17%
To protect the environment?
CON: 26%
LAB: 22%
GRN: 20%
OTH: 12%
To support the education system?
CON: 33%
LAB: 31%
OTH: 17%
With foreign affairs?
CON: 37%
LAB: 31%
OTH: 16%
To what extent, if at all, would you support a four-day work week?
Support: 60%
Oppose: 11%0 -
Nightclubs, churches, comedy clubs, bars, live music - keep these are shut, and then be sensible but cautious with measures around mask wearing and hand washing. Pubs probably need to be seating room only, and staff should wear masks.Black_Rook said:
Schools are clearly a concern, but there are some grounds for optimism on that front. The French ordered all their kids back to school a month ago, and that didn't seem to cause a serious problem. Cases there are now trending upwards, but my (admittedly limited) understanding is that the finger of blame there, as in Spain, is being pointed at young adults rather than schoolchildren.DavidL said:
Its accelerating in several countries where it started much later, notably India which is likely to end up with even more cases than the US. But in most of the countries in the first wave it is being controlled at much lower levels, if not eliminated.LadyG said:Tony Blair is Not Optimistic about The Bug
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-53525470
The stats support him. i just noticed that in the last two days the world reported 275-280,000 new cases.
By a margin, these are the highest daily totals. This damn virus is ACCELERATING
So we have established that we can control this at a very considerable cost. We may need to keep doing that (the handwashing, the masks, the social distancing, the limited use of public transport etc) until we have working vaccines. We are rolling the dice that one or more of those trials comes off.
The tricky one is schools. We need to get our kids back to school but if anything is going to cause infections to take off again it is surely that. Scottish schools are due to go back in a month. We won't have a vaccine by then.
Speaking more broadly, it looks like both of those countries are experiencing difficulty keeping a lid on cases at the moment, whereas hospitalisations, ICU beds and the 7-day average for deaths (even accounting for PHE's bent statistics) continue to trend steadily downwards in the UK, and the slight increase in new cases appears to be a function of blanket testing in the remaining hotspots rather than the disease taking off again amongst the population at large. Now, are we just trending behind Spain and France, so that we might expect things to start to go pear-shaped in the near future, or is the UK doing something fundamentally different that's keeping the dreaded R number in check? Is it something as simple as our twenty-somethings choosing, for whatever reason, not to go out boozing very much, coupled with the fact that the nightclubs have been kept closed?
Kids, fortunately, don't seem very contagious even when they get CV-19.
Result, R probably hovering around the 0.9 to 1.4 range, with real - but probably not excessive - economic damage while we await the roll out of a vaccine early next year.1 -
Русские боты busy in Fife.
https://twitter.com/jamesdoleman/status/1286682796803731456?s=20
I can accept that there might be almost valid arguments against mask wearing (thought most of the exponents are piss poor at making them), but Covid-19 not existing isn't one of them.0 -
The statistics are actually quite useful.DavidL said:
The available statistics are bordering on the useless in terms of trends but 768 new cases is still quite a lot.Malmesbury said:
That's pillar 1 & 2 on the testing - which means that intervention in outbreak areas is finding more asymptomatic cases.DavidL said:Not great numbers in the UK again today.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/?_ga=2.177876263.342558573.1595341587-685227072.1592983386
The hospital figures are very good but our progress seems to have stalled.
The death number are reporting day, not day of death, which makes them pretty much useless.
The 111 call data, numbers in hospital etc are all falling.
Large areas of the country have extremely low levels of COVID19. The issue is some hotspots.
The apparent levelling off in cases is almost certainly due to extensive use of Pillar 2 tests in those hotspots.
We should shortly (I hope) get data with the Pillar 1 and 2 separated, which will make judgements easier.
See -
0 -
They'd also made a great return - they invested a couple of million and turned it into $300m (or thereabouts). The temptation to lock in profits and pat yourself on the back must have been enormous.rottenborough said:"what were Daimler executives smoking when they ditched their 10pc holding of Tesla in 2014, concluding that the company was going nowhere? "
Telegraph
(I was guilty of this a find manager on a number of occasions. I bought Amazon at $14, and it rapidly quadrupled. I sold it and told my colleagues how smart I was, and how stupid they were to buy it when it had just shot up. When they were still holding it at $600, I was the one who looked like the idiot.)1 -
Anyway, moving on...TheScreamingEagles said:
In March our PM was shaking the hands of those with Covid-19 and boasting about it.LadyG said:
it's a feeble excuse. By mid February the government should have seen this virus coming, realised why masks are so important, and got manufacturers to focus on making billions of 'em.TheScreamingEagles said:
According to some NHS professionals I know the reason it has taken so long is that we didn't have the supplies in April/May to allow public use of them.dixiedean said:Anyways. Just got back from the local shop, where mask wearing has been very poor.
Today all in masks. Bloke walks in without one, everyone gives him the evils, and he says "Do you sell face masks?"
It appears we will wear them if told to.
Quite why it took so long is another matter.
So very few people would have been able to go out and get essentials, ditto key workers, due to the mask shortage.
By March, South Korea had a weekly mask ration available for every citizen.0 -
It is recognised that smokers are less likely to get it but get it worse when they do.LadyG said:
What are "inflammatory markers"?Foxy said:
The giveaway is in the inflammatory markers in blood tests. Those seem to be very predictive of bad outcomes.LadyG said:
Interesting, and somewhat troubling. My friend who is seriously ill, with "covid-related" disease, has baffled his London doctors, they can't quite work out why he is SO ill.Foxy said:
An interesting chat with one of our Covid-19 doctors at lunch. Only 26 inpatients now despite all the hype about Leicester outbreak, but seeing a different spectrum of disease. Far fewer with respiratory disease, but more vascular and intestinal disease, renal failure, strange strokes etc. Weird stuff and some bad outcomes. Has the virus mutated, at least locally?LadyG said:
Yes that's crucial, and it is hard, if not impossible, to collate the data globally.tlg86 said:
Any stats on the number of tests done?LadyG said:Tony Blair is Not Optimistic about The Bug
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-53525470
The stats support him. i just noticed that in the last two days the world reported 275-280,000 new cases.
By a margin, these are the highest daily totals. This damn virus is ACCELERATING
What we can say is that
1. America's rise in case-numbers is not a by-product of rising tests
"The average number of tests conducted [in the USA] has grown by 80% since early June to 780,000 per day. Daily case counts have grown by 215% in the same period."
That's from the NY Times, yesterday
and
2. The number of global deaths is also rising, albeit slower than the number of cases. At the end of May the average daily death toll was ~4,200, now it is ~5,200
I think the area has been flooded by swabbing, as only 1.7% of tests are coming back positive now. Track and Trace not able to contact anyone for 35% of index patients.
The virus is a shape-shifter?
Worth noting that my friend was a very heavy smoker. Gave up four years ago. The docs are sure that is relevant.
There are a variety of blood inflammatory markers, and these are part of any Covid-19 work up. They are not very specific to site of inflammation so localising the cause can be tricky.0 -
Regarding masks, one of the independent councillor who defeated me last May is on Twitter railing against mask use, as they have been brought in too late he doesn't see the point. Which is entertaining as normally he is a self-certified public health expert0
-
To be fair to Nerys, Sweden does NOT have widespread mask wearing, and yet cases are still declining, and deaths are down to near-zerorcs1000 said:
You poor fool.LadyG said:
it's a feeble excuse. By mid February the government should have seen this virus coming, realised why masks are so important, and got manufacturers to focus on making billions of 'em.TheScreamingEagles said:
According to some NHS professionals I know the reason it has taken so long is that we didn't have the supplies in April/May to allow public use of them.dixiedean said:Anyways. Just got back from the local shop, where mask wearing has been very poor.
Today all in masks. Bloke walks in without one, everyone gives him the evils, and he says "Do you sell face masks?"
It appears we will wear them if told to.
Quite why it took so long is another matter.
So very few people would have been able to go out and get essentials, ditto key workers, due to the mask shortage.
By March, South Korea had a weekly mask ration available for every citizen.
Haven't you been reading @NerysHughes posts? South Korea and other countries where masks work are irrelevant. The only place that matters is Spain, which implemented mask rules in shops (oh yeah, and opened nightclubs), and cases rose.
Therefore masks cause CV-19.
https://unherd.com/2020/07/swedens-anders-tegnell-judge-me-in-a-year/
I believe it's better to err on the side of caution, and use masks, but the Swedish example is perplexing1 -
Are you saying only 20% are wearing masks inside shops or 20% are wearing them out on the street? Everyone else seems to be saying masks in shops is 90%+, which is certainly m own experience.Pagan2 said:
Been down slough high street this afternoon very little compliance maybe 20% with masks and even those with them dont seem to always pull them up when entering a shop. Doesnt seem much different mask wise to yesterday.dixiedean said:Anyways. Just got back from the local shop, where mask wearing has been very poor.
Today all in masks. Bloke walks in without one, everyone gives him the evils, and he says "Do you sell face masks?"
It appears we will wear them if told to.
Quite why it took so long is another matter.1 -
It is, I’ll admit, for me a novel experience to be thanked for a betting tip.Morris_Dancer said:Currently feeling comfortable with my Biden backing and hedging so green whatever happens.
Thanks, once again, to Mr. B who tipped at 36 and 12 (presidency and nomination respectively).
I know many others here will be far greener but given my very ropey history in such things glad to be green.
1 -
It does have to be remembered that on average about 1700 people die in the UK every day. So that is about 9% of deaths (if they had all been today, which they weren't).dixiedean said:138 dead. Almost a plane crash load.
138 dead in any incident in the UK would have led the news for days if not months a mere 6 months ago.
Its pretty grim but my understanding is that our death rate is back down to the 5 year average.0 -
How many of those died naturally or of other causes though? The death statistics are untrustworthy at the moment, the ONS series is better.dixiedean said:138 dead. Almost a plane crash load.
138 dead in any incident in the UK would have led the news for days if not months a mere 6 months ago.0 -
I am not sure people should be moving on at all. It was a level of Trumpian stupidity and personal incompetence that was incredibly thick headed even by the standards of Johnson. Not only did he infect himself, he probably passed the virus to others, or probably increased the viral load of a number of patients.DavidL said:
Anyway, moving on...TheScreamingEagles said:
In March our PM was shaking the hands of those with Covid-19 and boasting about it.LadyG said:
it's a feeble excuse. By mid February the government should have seen this virus coming, realised why masks are so important, and got manufacturers to focus on making billions of 'em.TheScreamingEagles said:
According to some NHS professionals I know the reason it has taken so long is that we didn't have the supplies in April/May to allow public use of them.dixiedean said:Anyways. Just got back from the local shop, where mask wearing has been very poor.
Today all in masks. Bloke walks in without one, everyone gives him the evils, and he says "Do you sell face masks?"
It appears we will wear them if told to.
Quite why it took so long is another matter.
So very few people would have been able to go out and get essentials, ditto key workers, due to the mask shortage.
By March, South Korea had a weekly mask ration available for every citizen.0 -
Nerys has not argued that masks have no, or limited, effect. (Which would at least be something we could debate.)LadyG said:
To be fair to Nerys, Sweden does NOT have widespread mask wearing, and yet cases are still declining, and deaths are down to near-zerorcs1000 said:
You poor fool.LadyG said:
it's a feeble excuse. By mid February the government should have seen this virus coming, realised why masks are so important, and got manufacturers to focus on making billions of 'em.TheScreamingEagles said:
According to some NHS professionals I know the reason it has taken so long is that we didn't have the supplies in April/May to allow public use of them.dixiedean said:Anyways. Just got back from the local shop, where mask wearing has been very poor.
Today all in masks. Bloke walks in without one, everyone gives him the evils, and he says "Do you sell face masks?"
It appears we will wear them if told to.
Quite why it took so long is another matter.
So very few people would have been able to go out and get essentials, ditto key workers, due to the mask shortage.
By March, South Korea had a weekly mask ration available for every citizen.
Haven't you been reading @NerysHughes posts? South Korea and other countries where masks work are irrelevant. The only place that matters is Spain, which implemented mask rules in shops (oh yeah, and opened nightclubs), and cases rose.
Therefore masks cause CV-19.
https://unherd.com/2020/07/swedens-anders-tegnell-judge-me-in-a-year/
I believe it's better to err on the side of caution, and use masks, but the Swedish example is perplexing
He's arguing that masks *cause* Covid.2 -
I am rather amazed by those figures.CorrectHorseBattery said:Approval Ratings:
Starmer:
A: 37%
D : 23%
NET: +14% (-4)
Sturgeon:
A: 37%
D : 30%
NET: +7% (-6)
Johnson:
A: 43%
D : 38%
NET: +5% (-5)
Berry/Bartley:
A: 17%
D : 20%
NET: -3% (-4)
Davey/Pack:
A: 15%
D : 22%
NET: -7% (-4)
Which political party do you trust the most…
With the economy?
CON: 41%
LAB: 27%
OTH: 14%
To tackle poverty?
LAB: 37%
CON: 27%
OTH: 15%
To tackle crime?
CON: 38%
LAB: 27%
OTH: 14%
To support the NHS?
LAB: 37%
CON: 31%
OTH: 14%
With immigration?
CON: 36%
LAB: 23%
OTH: 17%
To protect the environment?
CON: 26%
LAB: 22%
GRN: 20%
OTH: 12%
To support the education system?
CON: 33%
LAB: 31%
OTH: 17%
With foreign affairs?
CON: 37%
LAB: 31%
OTH: 16%
To what extent, if at all, would you support a four-day work week?
Support: 60%
Oppose: 11%
It is no surprise that Labour are ahead on the NHS and Poverty, nor that the Tories are ahead on Immigration and tackling crime. I am perhaps a little more surprised to see such a healthy lead for the Tories on the economy. But really amazed to see the Tories ahead on Education and protecting the environment.0 -
I don't see the name of the salon so I will just not get my hair cut in Fife at all.Theuniondivvie said:Русские боты busy in Fife.
https://twitter.com/jamesdoleman/status/1286682796803731456?s=20
I can accept that there might be almost valid arguments against mask wearing (thought most of the exponents are piss poor at making them), but Covid-19 not existing isn't one of them.0 -
For July, our death rate will probably be 5-7% less than average.DavidL said:
It does have to be remembered that on average about 1700 people die in the UK every day. So that is about 9% of deaths (if they had all been today, which they weren't).dixiedean said:138 dead. Almost a plane crash load.
138 dead in any incident in the UK would have led the news for days if not months a mere 6 months ago.
Its pretty grim but my understanding is that our death rate is back down to the 5 year average.0 -
Worth noting that the ONS (death certificate) and PHE (Hospital Deaths) figures do deviate, but it is the ONS ones that are higher. On 3rd July the ONS recorded 48 154 compared to PHE at 39 626 for example.Malmesbury said:
The England all settings deaths by day of death -Malmesbury said:
That's pillar 1 & 2 on the testing - which means that intervention in outbreak areas is finding more asymptomatic cases.DavidL said:Not great numbers in the UK again today.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/?_ga=2.177876263.342558573.1595341587-685227072.1592983386
The hospital figures are very good but our progress seems to have stalled.
The death number are reporting day, not day of death, which makes them pretty much useless.
Note that these are the numbers that include any previously infected who recover, and are killed crossing the road, falling down stairs or by mad lawyers with baseball bats.
(Note that ONS record date of death registration rather than date of death)0 -
In what context are the tests finding "1.7% positive" ??Foxy said:
It is recognised that smokers are less likely to get it but get it worse when they do.LadyG said:
What are "inflammatory markers"?Foxy said:
The giveaway is in the inflammatory markers in blood tests. Those seem to be very predictive of bad outcomes.LadyG said:
Interesting, and somewhat troubling. My friend who is seriously ill, with "covid-related" disease, has baffled his London doctors, they can't quite work out why he is SO ill.Foxy said:
An interesting chat with one of our Covid-19 doctors at lunch. Only 26 inpatients now despite all the hype about Leicester outbreak, but seeing a different spectrum of disease. Far fewer with respiratory disease, but more vascular and intestinal disease, renal failure, strange strokes etc. Weird stuff and some bad outcomes. Has the virus mutated, at least locally?LadyG said:
Yes that's crucial, and it is hard, if not impossible, to collate the data globally.tlg86 said:
Any stats on the number of tests done?LadyG said:Tony Blair is Not Optimistic about The Bug
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-53525470
The stats support him. i just noticed that in the last two days the world reported 275-280,000 new cases.
By a margin, these are the highest daily totals. This damn virus is ACCELERATING
What we can say is that
1. America's rise in case-numbers is not a by-product of rising tests
"The average number of tests conducted [in the USA] has grown by 80% since early June to 780,000 per day. Daily case counts have grown by 215% in the same period."
That's from the NY Times, yesterday
and
2. The number of global deaths is also rising, albeit slower than the number of cases. At the end of May the average daily death toll was ~4,200, now it is ~5,200
I think the area has been flooded by swabbing, as only 1.7% of tests are coming back positive now. Track and Trace not able to contact anyone for 35% of index patients.
The virus is a shape-shifter?
Worth noting that my friend was a very heavy smoker. Gave up four years ago. The docs are sure that is relevant.
There are a variety of blood inflammatory markers, and these are part of any Covid-19 work up. They are not very specific to site of inflammation so localising the cause can be tricky.
I ask, since the Pillar 1 tests seem to be running in the order of 0.25% positive and Pillar 2 at something like 0.8%, nationally.0 -
Ah. OK. Yes that's quite quirkyrcs1000 said:
Nerys has not argued that masks have no, or limited, effect. (Which would at least be something we could debate.)LadyG said:
To be fair to Nerys, Sweden does NOT have widespread mask wearing, and yet cases are still declining, and deaths are down to near-zerorcs1000 said:
You poor fool.LadyG said:
it's a feeble excuse. By mid February the government should have seen this virus coming, realised why masks are so important, and got manufacturers to focus on making billions of 'em.TheScreamingEagles said:
According to some NHS professionals I know the reason it has taken so long is that we didn't have the supplies in April/May to allow public use of them.dixiedean said:Anyways. Just got back from the local shop, where mask wearing has been very poor.
Today all in masks. Bloke walks in without one, everyone gives him the evils, and he says "Do you sell face masks?"
It appears we will wear them if told to.
Quite why it took so long is another matter.
So very few people would have been able to go out and get essentials, ditto key workers, due to the mask shortage.
By March, South Korea had a weekly mask ration available for every citizen.
Haven't you been reading @NerysHughes posts? South Korea and other countries where masks work are irrelevant. The only place that matters is Spain, which implemented mask rules in shops (oh yeah, and opened nightclubs), and cases rose.
Therefore masks cause CV-19.
https://unherd.com/2020/07/swedens-anders-tegnell-judge-me-in-a-year/
I believe it's better to err on the side of caution, and use masks, but the Swedish example is perplexing
He's arguing that masks *cause* Covid.0 -
Although that's obviously bad news, I'm a bit surprised it's not higher. If you look back 3 weeks, when those currently dying were likely getting infected... there were many more cases than they found back in April, and yet daily deaths are still half the first peak.Alistair said:I see USA has had 3 days of 1000+ deaths in a row now.
Could be lack of testing in April missing the real caseload. Could be a younger population getting it at the moment, and therefore having better survival outcomes.
I don't think it's likely treatment/quality of care is the main factor.
US second peak could conceivably be smaller in mortality than the first one if (and it's a big if) they can get this under control quickly.0 -
Yes - that is the excess deaths issue earlier in the epidemic.Foxy said:
Worth noting that the ONS (death certificate) and PHE (Hospital Deaths) figures do deviate, but it is the ONS ones that are higher. On 3rd July the ONS recorded 48 154 compared to PHE at 39 626 for example.Malmesbury said:
The England all settings deaths by day of death -Malmesbury said:
That's pillar 1 & 2 on the testing - which means that intervention in outbreak areas is finding more asymptomatic cases.DavidL said:Not great numbers in the UK again today.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/?_ga=2.177876263.342558573.1595341587-685227072.1592983386
The hospital figures are very good but our progress seems to have stalled.
The death number are reporting day, not day of death, which makes them pretty much useless.
Note that these are the numbers that include any previously infected who recover, and are killed crossing the road, falling down stairs or by mad lawyers with baseball bats.
(Note that ONS record date of death registration rather than date of death)
The question is what is happening now.
0 -
A friend of mine who is a heavy smoker (despite having had cancer) refers to his fags as Covid prevention sticks.Foxy said:
It is recognised that smokers are less likely to get it but get it worse when they do.LadyG said:
What are "inflammatory markers"?Foxy said:
The giveaway is in the inflammatory markers in blood tests. Those seem to be very predictive of bad outcomes.LadyG said:
Interesting, and somewhat troubling. My friend who is seriously ill, with "covid-related" disease, has baffled his London doctors, they can't quite work out why he is SO ill.Foxy said:
An interesting chat with one of our Covid-19 doctors at lunch. Only 26 inpatients now despite all the hype about Leicester outbreak, but seeing a different spectrum of disease. Far fewer with respiratory disease, but more vascular and intestinal disease, renal failure, strange strokes etc. Weird stuff and some bad outcomes. Has the virus mutated, at least locally?LadyG said:
Yes that's crucial, and it is hard, if not impossible, to collate the data globally.tlg86 said:
Any stats on the number of tests done?LadyG said:Tony Blair is Not Optimistic about The Bug
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-53525470
The stats support him. i just noticed that in the last two days the world reported 275-280,000 new cases.
By a margin, these are the highest daily totals. This damn virus is ACCELERATING
What we can say is that
1. America's rise in case-numbers is not a by-product of rising tests
"The average number of tests conducted [in the USA] has grown by 80% since early June to 780,000 per day. Daily case counts have grown by 215% in the same period."
That's from the NY Times, yesterday
and
2. The number of global deaths is also rising, albeit slower than the number of cases. At the end of May the average daily death toll was ~4,200, now it is ~5,200
I think the area has been flooded by swabbing, as only 1.7% of tests are coming back positive now. Track and Trace not able to contact anyone for 35% of index patients.
The virus is a shape-shifter?
Worth noting that my friend was a very heavy smoker. Gave up four years ago. The docs are sure that is relevant.
There are a variety of blood inflammatory markers, and these are part of any Covid-19 work up. They are not very specific to site of inflammation so localising the cause can be tricky.0 -
According to the ONS, currently about 6% of deaths have coronavirus as either cause or contributing factor on the certificate.rcs1000 said:
For July, our death rate will probably be 5-7% less than average.DavidL said:
It does have to be remembered that on average about 1700 people die in the UK every day. So that is about 9% of deaths (if they had all been today, which they weren't).dixiedean said:138 dead. Almost a plane crash load.
138 dead in any incident in the UK would have led the news for days if not months a mere 6 months ago.
Its pretty grim but my understanding is that our death rate is back down to the 5 year average.0 -
Under normal circumstances perhaps. "Boris" a she is affectionately known by those who are blind to his incompetence and ridiculousness, has demonstrated a level of hopelessness as leader that even my Bozo-sceptical self could not have predicted. I still think he will throw the towel in well before the next election. He is simply a very lazy man, and being PM is hard work!Big_G_NorthWales said:
Looking at these polling figures I do not see Boris going anytime soonCorrectHorseBattery said:Approval Ratings:
Starmer:
A: 37%
D : 23%
NET: +14% (-4)
Sturgeon:
A: 37%
D : 30%
NET: +7% (-6)
Johnson:
A: 43%
D : 38%
NET: +5% (-5)
Berry/Bartley:
A: 17%
D : 20%
NET: -3% (-4)
Davey/Pack:
A: 15%
D : 22%
NET: -7% (-4)
Which political party do you trust the most…
With the economy?
CON: 41%
LAB: 27%
OTH: 14%
To tackle poverty?
LAB: 37%
CON: 27%
OTH: 15%
To tackle crime?
CON: 38%
LAB: 27%
OTH: 14%
To support the NHS?
LAB: 37%
CON: 31%
OTH: 14%
With immigration?
CON: 36%
LAB: 23%
OTH: 17%
To protect the environment?
CON: 26%
LAB: 22%
GRN: 20%
OTH: 12%
To support the education system?
CON: 33%
LAB: 31%
OTH: 17%
With foreign affairs?
CON: 37%
LAB: 31%
OTH: 16%
To what extent, if at all, would you support a four-day work week?
Support: 60%
Oppose: 11%0 -
I'm not entirely sure it isn't as hoax - but the salon does exist and it's in Glenrothes (scroll down the Edinburegh Live page, which is dreadfully laid out). So Cupar or Wormit might be safe ...DavidL said:
I don't see the name of the salon so I will just not get my hair cut in Fife at all.Theuniondivvie said:Русские боты busy in Fife.
https://twitter.com/jamesdoleman/status/1286682796803731456?s=20
I can accept that there might be almost valid arguments against mask wearing (thought most of the exponents are piss poor at making them), but Covid-19 not existing isn't one of them.
0 -
20% on the streets though saw people happy wandering into shops without them on. The two shops I was 1 I saw one mask wearer out of about 5 total customers and 3 staffOllyT said:
Are you saying only 20% are wearing masks inside shops or 20% are wearing them out on the street? Everyone else seems to be saying masks in shops is 90%+, which is certainly m own experience.Pagan2 said:
Been down slough high street this afternoon very little compliance maybe 20% with masks and even those with them dont seem to always pull them up when entering a shop. Doesnt seem much different mask wise to yesterday.dixiedean said:Anyways. Just got back from the local shop, where mask wearing has been very poor.
Today all in masks. Bloke walks in without one, everyone gives him the evils, and he says "Do you sell face masks?"
It appears we will wear them if told to.
Quite why it took so long is another matter.
Note these were small shops not tesco's havent been there since the "ban" so cant comment0 -
It's actually running below that level now, a lot of people who died of the virus earlier in the year were not that far from it before they got it. It's a bit morbid, but if you try and detach yourself from it the virus has brought forwards a lot of deaths by 3-6 months for people in care homes, and that's where the worst outbreak occured in the UK. Weekly deaths are now running 560 below the 5y average, I expect that pattern will continue until the end of the year barring a second wave.DavidL said:
It does have to be remembered that on average about 1700 people die in the UK every day. So that is about 9% of deaths (if they had all been today, which they weren't).dixiedean said:138 dead. Almost a plane crash load.
138 dead in any incident in the UK would have led the news for days if not months a mere 6 months ago.
Its pretty grim but my understanding is that our death rate is back down to the 5 year average.0 -
Except if some form of face covering were considered important (and it's important to remember, of course, that the mask-wearing edict does not compel people to go around in medical-grade kit) then why was Joe Public not advised to buy a cloth mask, or to make one, or to use a scarf or some similar such thing when this all kicked off in the first place?TheScreamingEagles said:
According to some NHS professionals I know the reason it has taken so long is that we didn't have the supplies in April/May to allow public use of them.dixiedean said:Anyways. Just got back from the local shop, where mask wearing has been very poor.
Today all in masks. Bloke walks in without one, everyone gives him the evils, and he says "Do you sell face masks?"
It appears we will wear them if told to.
Quite why it took so long is another matter.
So very few people would have been able to go out and get essentials, ditto key workers, due to the mask shortage.
Back in March, when ministers and senior Government advisers were telling people that masks outside clinical settings were worse than useless, either they were telling the truth (and have since changed their minds,) or they were lying because they didn't trust the public not to fly into a complete panic and try to buy up any medical grade masks they could get their hands on, as opposed to accepting a rational request to stick to cloth masks and leave medical masks for medical professionals.
If it's the latter then one feels obliged to remark that the road to Hell is paved with good intentions. Any conceivable good that might have been achieved by way of keeping a few boxes of N95 masks out of the hands of a handful of panic buyers on Amazon has been more than negated by the fact that the population, or a large section of it at any rate, must now feel that it cannot trust the Establishment to tell it the truth about these matters. Thus, even if masks in non-clinical settings are of some conceivable use, citizens will either refuse to wear them anyway, or only do it because it's not worth the hassle not to (in which case the masks are liable to be treated with contempt, e.g. by being worn as necklaces unless or until the wearer is cajoled into pulling them up by an authority figure, and they really will prove worse than useless as was originally claimed.)0 -
No "excess deaths" is another metric. The ONS is based on death certificates, but includes nursing homes etc. As well as hospitals.Malmesbury said:
Yes - that is the excess deaths issue earlier in the epidemic.Foxy said:
Worth noting that the ONS (death certificate) and PHE (Hospital Deaths) figures do deviate, but it is the ONS ones that are higher. On 3rd July the ONS recorded 48 154 compared to PHE at 39 626 for example.Malmesbury said:
The England all settings deaths by day of death -Malmesbury said:
That's pillar 1 & 2 on the testing - which means that intervention in outbreak areas is finding more asymptomatic cases.DavidL said:Not great numbers in the UK again today.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/?_ga=2.177876263.342558573.1595341587-685227072.1592983386
The hospital figures are very good but our progress seems to have stalled.
The death number are reporting day, not day of death, which makes them pretty much useless.
Note that these are the numbers that include any previously infected who recover, and are killed crossing the road, falling down stairs or by mad lawyers with baseball bats.
(Note that ONS record date of death registration rather than date of death)
The question is what is happening now.0 -
That is the figure for Leicester.Malmesbury said:
In what context are the tests finding "1.7% positive" ??Foxy said:
It is recognised that smokers are less likely to get it but get it worse when they do.LadyG said:
What are "inflammatory markers"?Foxy said:
The giveaway is in the inflammatory markers in blood tests. Those seem to be very predictive of bad outcomes.LadyG said:
Interesting, and somewhat troubling. My friend who is seriously ill, with "covid-related" disease, has baffled his London doctors, they can't quite work out why he is SO ill.Foxy said:
An interesting chat with one of our Covid-19 doctors at lunch. Only 26 inpatients now despite all the hype about Leicester outbreak, but seeing a different spectrum of disease. Far fewer with respiratory disease, but more vascular and intestinal disease, renal failure, strange strokes etc. Weird stuff and some bad outcomes. Has the virus mutated, at least locally?LadyG said:
Yes that's crucial, and it is hard, if not impossible, to collate the data globally.tlg86 said:
Any stats on the number of tests done?LadyG said:Tony Blair is Not Optimistic about The Bug
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-53525470
The stats support him. i just noticed that in the last two days the world reported 275-280,000 new cases.
By a margin, these are the highest daily totals. This damn virus is ACCELERATING
What we can say is that
1. America's rise in case-numbers is not a by-product of rising tests
"The average number of tests conducted [in the USA] has grown by 80% since early June to 780,000 per day. Daily case counts have grown by 215% in the same period."
That's from the NY Times, yesterday
and
2. The number of global deaths is also rising, albeit slower than the number of cases. At the end of May the average daily death toll was ~4,200, now it is ~5,200
I think the area has been flooded by swabbing, as only 1.7% of tests are coming back positive now. Track and Trace not able to contact anyone for 35% of index patients.
The virus is a shape-shifter?
Worth noting that my friend was a very heavy smoker. Gave up four years ago. The docs are sure that is relevant.
There are a variety of blood inflammatory markers, and these are part of any Covid-19 work up. They are not very specific to site of inflammation so localising the cause can be tricky.
I ask, since the Pillar 1 tests seem to be running in the order of 0.25% positive and Pillar 2 at something like 0.8%, nationally.0 -
Indeed. Also the loss of any chance to educate the public in facemask usage.Black_Rook said:
Except if some form of face covering were considered important (and it's important to remember, of course, that the mask-wearing edict does not compel people to go around in medical-grade kit) then why was Joe Public not advised to buy a cloth mask, or to make one, or to use a scarf or some similar such thing when this all kicked off in the first place?TheScreamingEagles said:
According to some NHS professionals I know the reason it has taken so long is that we didn't have the supplies in April/May to allow public use of them.dixiedean said:Anyways. Just got back from the local shop, where mask wearing has been very poor.
Today all in masks. Bloke walks in without one, everyone gives him the evils, and he says "Do you sell face masks?"
It appears we will wear them if told to.
Quite why it took so long is another matter.
So very few people would have been able to go out and get essentials, ditto key workers, due to the mask shortage.
Back in March, when ministers and senior Government advisers were telling people that masks outside clinical settings were worse than useless, either they were telling the truth (and have since changed their minds,) or they were lying because they didn't trust the public not to fly into a complete panic and try to buy up any medical grade masks they could get their hands on, as opposed to accepting a rational request to stick to cloth masks and leave medical masks for medical professionals.
If it's the latter then one feels obliged to remark that the road to Hell is paved with good intentions. Any conceivable good that might have been achieved by way of keeping a few boxes of N95 masks out of the hands of a handful of panic buyers on Amazon has been more than negated by the fact that the population, or a large section of it at any rate, must now feel that it cannot trust the Establishment to tell it the truth about these matters. Thus, even if masks in non-clinical settings are of some conceivable use, citizens will either refuse to wear them anyway, or only do it because it's not worth the hassle not to (in which case the masks are liable to be treated with contempt, e.g. by being worn as necklaces unless or until the wearer is cajoled into pulling them up by an authority figure, and they really will prove worse than useless as was originally claimed.)0 -
I did run across a conspiracy theorist on twitter who believed that big pharma was sending out contaminated swabs to cause coronavirus, thereby increasing sales.rcs1000 said:
Nerys has not argued that masks have no, or limited, effect. (Which would at least be something we could debate.)LadyG said:
To be fair to Nerys, Sweden does NOT have widespread mask wearing, and yet cases are still declining, and deaths are down to near-zerorcs1000 said:
You poor fool.LadyG said:
it's a feeble excuse. By mid February the government should have seen this virus coming, realised why masks are so important, and got manufacturers to focus on making billions of 'em.TheScreamingEagles said:
According to some NHS professionals I know the reason it has taken so long is that we didn't have the supplies in April/May to allow public use of them.dixiedean said:Anyways. Just got back from the local shop, where mask wearing has been very poor.
Today all in masks. Bloke walks in without one, everyone gives him the evils, and he says "Do you sell face masks?"
It appears we will wear them if told to.
Quite why it took so long is another matter.
So very few people would have been able to go out and get essentials, ditto key workers, due to the mask shortage.
By March, South Korea had a weekly mask ration available for every citizen.
Haven't you been reading @NerysHughes posts? South Korea and other countries where masks work are irrelevant. The only place that matters is Spain, which implemented mask rules in shops (oh yeah, and opened nightclubs), and cases rose.
Therefore masks cause CV-19.
https://unherd.com/2020/07/swedens-anders-tegnell-judge-me-in-a-year/
I believe it's better to err on the side of caution, and use masks, but the Swedish example is perplexing
He's arguing that masks *cause* Covid.
Perhaps the mask manufacturers are in on it too.
Now where did I leave my tinfoil hat?...0 -
I think "excess deaths" per hundred thousand is the only relatively reliable statistic to compare the performance of our system against those in other countries. It is interesting politically because if it appears very bad (which it almost certainly will) there will be those on the left that will blame the incompetent government and those on the right will blame the incompetent bureaucracy of the NHS.Foxy said:
No "excess deaths" is another metric. The ONS is based on death certificates, but includes nursing homes etc. As well as hospitals.Malmesbury said:
Yes - that is the excess deaths issue earlier in the epidemic.Foxy said:
Worth noting that the ONS (death certificate) and PHE (Hospital Deaths) figures do deviate, but it is the ONS ones that are higher. On 3rd July the ONS recorded 48 154 compared to PHE at 39 626 for example.Malmesbury said:
The England all settings deaths by day of death -Malmesbury said:
That's pillar 1 & 2 on the testing - which means that intervention in outbreak areas is finding more asymptomatic cases.DavidL said:Not great numbers in the UK again today.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/?_ga=2.177876263.342558573.1595341587-685227072.1592983386
The hospital figures are very good but our progress seems to have stalled.
The death number are reporting day, not day of death, which makes them pretty much useless.
Note that these are the numbers that include any previously infected who recover, and are killed crossing the road, falling down stairs or by mad lawyers with baseball bats.
(Note that ONS record date of death registration rather than date of death)
The question is what is happening now.0 -
It is also the case that shielding, masks, social distancing and a greater emphasis on hygiene will defer a lot of other deaths that might have occurred. I think we will claw back quite a number of the excess deaths by the end of the year. RTA deaths should also be well down.MaxPB said:
It's actually running below that level now, a lot of people who died of the virus earlier in the year were not that far from it before they got it. It's a bit morbid, but if you try and detach yourself from it the virus has brought forwards a lot of deaths by 3-6 months for people in care homes, and that's where the worst outbreak occured in the UK. Weekly deaths are now running 560 below the 5y average, I expect that pattern will continue until the end of the year barring a second wave.DavidL said:
It does have to be remembered that on average about 1700 people die in the UK every day. So that is about 9% of deaths (if they had all been today, which they weren't).dixiedean said:138 dead. Almost a plane crash load.
138 dead in any incident in the UK would have led the news for days if not months a mere 6 months ago.
Its pretty grim but my understanding is that our death rate is back down to the 5 year average.1 -
So in Leicester, the tests are catching north of double the rate elsewhere?Foxy said:
That is the figure for Leicester.Malmesbury said:
In what context are the tests finding "1.7% positive" ??Foxy said:
It is recognised that smokers are less likely to get it but get it worse when they do.LadyG said:
What are "inflammatory markers"?Foxy said:
The giveaway is in the inflammatory markers in blood tests. Those seem to be very predictive of bad outcomes.LadyG said:
Interesting, and somewhat troubling. My friend who is seriously ill, with "covid-related" disease, has baffled his London doctors, they can't quite work out why he is SO ill.Foxy said:
An interesting chat with one of our Covid-19 doctors at lunch. Only 26 inpatients now despite all the hype about Leicester outbreak, but seeing a different spectrum of disease. Far fewer with respiratory disease, but more vascular and intestinal disease, renal failure, strange strokes etc. Weird stuff and some bad outcomes. Has the virus mutated, at least locally?LadyG said:
Yes that's crucial, and it is hard, if not impossible, to collate the data globally.tlg86 said:
Any stats on the number of tests done?LadyG said:Tony Blair is Not Optimistic about The Bug
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-53525470
The stats support him. i just noticed that in the last two days the world reported 275-280,000 new cases.
By a margin, these are the highest daily totals. This damn virus is ACCELERATING
What we can say is that
1. America's rise in case-numbers is not a by-product of rising tests
"The average number of tests conducted [in the USA] has grown by 80% since early June to 780,000 per day. Daily case counts have grown by 215% in the same period."
That's from the NY Times, yesterday
and
2. The number of global deaths is also rising, albeit slower than the number of cases. At the end of May the average daily death toll was ~4,200, now it is ~5,200
I think the area has been flooded by swabbing, as only 1.7% of tests are coming back positive now. Track and Trace not able to contact anyone for 35% of index patients.
The virus is a shape-shifter?
Worth noting that my friend was a very heavy smoker. Gave up four years ago. The docs are sure that is relevant.
There are a variety of blood inflammatory markers, and these are part of any Covid-19 work up. They are not very specific to site of inflammation so localising the cause can be tricky.
I ask, since the Pillar 1 tests seem to be running in the order of 0.25% positive and Pillar 2 at something like 0.8%, nationally.0 -
100% mask use in shops in south Devon - from my own observations/discussions.Pagan2 said:
20% on the streets though saw people happy wandering into shops without them on. The two shops I was 1 I saw one mask wearer out of about 5 total customers and 3 staffOllyT said:
Are you saying only 20% are wearing masks inside shops or 20% are wearing them out on the street? Everyone else seems to be saying masks in shops is 90%+, which is certainly m own experience.Pagan2 said:
Been down slough high street this afternoon very little compliance maybe 20% with masks and even those with them dont seem to always pull them up when entering a shop. Doesnt seem much different mask wise to yesterday.dixiedean said:Anyways. Just got back from the local shop, where mask wearing has been very poor.
Today all in masks. Bloke walks in without one, everyone gives him the evils, and he says "Do you sell face masks?"
It appears we will wear them if told to.
Quite why it took so long is another matter.
Note these were small shops not tesco's havent been there since the "ban" so cant comment1 -
Went to the shops, 100% mask usage in Sainsbury's, police were present as well, one was outside observing the queue and the other one was inside buying lunch.1
-
Jos Buttler taking lots of risks here.
He’s not giving me the vibe of permanence.0 -
Tinfoil mask... Genius!Foxy said:I did run across a conspiracy theorist on twitter who believed that big pharma was sending out contaminated swabs to cause coronavirus, thereby increasing sales.
Perhaps the mask manufacturers are in on it too.
Now where did I leave my tinfoil hat?...
EDIT: For the avoidance of doubt, I am joking. This is a joke.0 -
Sorry - what I was referring to was the "bump" in the graphs where the excess deaths data was well above the death certificate data.Foxy said:
No "excess deaths" is another metric. The ONS is based on death certificates, but includes nursing homes etc. As well as hospitals.Malmesbury said:
Yes - that is the excess deaths issue earlier in the epidemic.Foxy said:
Worth noting that the ONS (death certificate) and PHE (Hospital Deaths) figures do deviate, but it is the ONS ones that are higher. On 3rd July the ONS recorded 48 154 compared to PHE at 39 626 for example.Malmesbury said:
The England all settings deaths by day of death -Malmesbury said:
That's pillar 1 & 2 on the testing - which means that intervention in outbreak areas is finding more asymptomatic cases.DavidL said:Not great numbers in the UK again today.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/?_ga=2.177876263.342558573.1595341587-685227072.1592983386
The hospital figures are very good but our progress seems to have stalled.
The death number are reporting day, not day of death, which makes them pretty much useless.
Note that these are the numbers that include any previously infected who recover, and are killed crossing the road, falling down stairs or by mad lawyers with baseball bats.
(Note that ONS record date of death registration rather than date of death)
The question is what is happening now.
The bar chart (see below) I was talking about shows the all settings data for England, by day of death - the one based on the death of anyone who has ever been diagnosed with COVID. In or out of hospital. 0 -
Is Buttler's patience wearing thin perchance?0
-
I suspect the overwhelming majority if not all.MaxPB said:
How many of those died naturally or of other causes though? The death statistics are untrustworthy at the moment, the ONS series is better.dixiedean said:138 dead. Almost a plane crash load.
138 dead in any incident in the UK would have led the news for days if not months a mere 6 months ago.
I think this is care homes combining with the flaw in the date for PHE.
It is worth remembering that all care home patients have been tested for COVID and all are getting tested weekly which means any COVID patient who has had th virus since testing became widespread is known about.
And care home residents die on average within a year of admission. They don't have a long life expectancy.
So any care home resident who has tested positive, recovered, then later dies of natural causes (as they're expected to do within a year) gets recorded as a COVID death by PHE.
It wouldn't surprise me if hundreds or even thousands of care home residents a month who have recovered from COVID are dying of entirely natural causes and PHE are erroneously recording them as COVID deaths.0
