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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Laundering Reputations: China and its Uighurs

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  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    Biden's lead in top battleground states is 5.2% according to RCP.

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    geoffw said:

    Some of us were even brought up on canned snoek.
    I had to google that. You poor thing.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    It was inevitable the death rate would rise given the hospitalisation rates but hopefully not too much. Do you think they've peaked if it's falling again? Deaths are rather a lagging indicator.
    Given the improvements in treatment it shouldn't have been inevitable I don't think.

    But overall I think they have passed the peak of this wave. I am not clued up on what counter measure Texas has taken over the last few weeks.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,536

    If @ydoethur or any other decent historians are about, what are the best book(s) to read about the Black Death?

    I currently have a working knowledge about the Great Pestilence of the 14th century.

    I'm particularly keen to know more about the blame the Jews received for the (inaccurate) perception that they were the ones responsible for spreading the Black Death?

    Philip Ziegler’s work on it is about 30 years old, but still the standard,

    Colin Platt’s King Death is worth a read too.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,385
    Andy_JS said:

    Biden's lead in top battleground states is 5.2% according to RCP.

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com

    Is that just Republican held battleground states, or does it also include New Hampshire, Minnesota and Nevada? If the former, it's a great result for the Dems, and if the latter, it's a poor one.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,330

    Well, who would have expected SCUP to put a spanner in the works in '17?. Things change. Will be interesting to see if the famous 54% poll is a trend (or not).
    Polls.

  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,012
    IshmaelZ said:

    I had to google that. You poor thing.
    Not me personally, at least not that I recall. You infer too much.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,385
    edited July 2020
    rcs1000 said:

    Is that just Republican held battleground states, or does it also include New Hampshire, Minnesota and Nevada? If the former, it's a great result for the Dems, and if the latter, it's a poor one.
    Answering my own question, the states are - Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Florida, Arizona - all of which were Republican in 2016.

    Biden doesn't need to get +3% in those states to win, he just needs to move from -1.2% to -0.5%.

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,838
    rcs1000 said:

    We seem unclear as to our ultimate goal. Is it to protect British fishermen? Or is to have an efficient fishing industry? "Taking back control" - to a struggling fisherman - does not mean that rights become British but nothing changes.

    The ultimate goal is to protect people who voted for Brexit from the realisation that they were dupes.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,664
    ydoethur said:

    Philip Ziegler’s work on it is about 30 years old, but still the standard,

    Colin Platt’s King Death is worth a read too.
    Ta.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,322

    On this site we have a variety of forms of nationalists. Quite a few Scottish nationalists, quite a few British/UK nationalists, quite a few European nationalists . . . I think (but may be wrong) I'm possibly the only English nationalist.

    What people are perceiving as their nation: the UK/Scotland/Europe/England that they're nationalistically supporting varies but there is a heck of a lot of nationalism here.

    The number of true internationalists here is quite limited.
    A bit silly to see every form of identity as a kind of "nationalism" , and shows how obsessed you are. Other forms of identity have been around much longer than nationalism, and will no doubt be around long after nationalism ceases to be important.

    If someone is attached to their town /football team /hobby/religion/whatever, are they all forms of "nationalism"?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,536
    IshmaelZ said:

    He did, but it is limited to the British Isles where England had just expelled its Jewish population.
    The word ‘just’ is doing a lot of heavy lifting there - it was sixty years before.

    There’s quite an extensive bibliography here, not including the article itself which is tangential to your point.

    https://academic.oup.com/ereh/article/17/4/408/499216

    Alfani’s Calamities and the Economy in Renaissance Italy: The Grand Tour of the Horsemen of the Apocalypse looks potentially the most interesting one to start with.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,330

    The ultimate goal is to protect people who voted for Brexit from the realisation that they were dupes.
    The ultimate goal is to do this for as long as possible and depart the stage before realisation strikes.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,979

    Polls.

    SCUP flatlined on about 15% for 20 years. Looked unrevivable. SLAB, it seems to me, has much more potential to recover. Just need a decent and plausible leader. They now have a decent UK leader which is another precondition, and the prospect of the politics of economic recovery overtaking the constitution as the prevailing concern - which is on its way, once the pandemic recedes.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,330

    SCUP flatlined on about 15% for 20 years. Looked unrevivable. SLAB, it seems to me, has much more potential to recover. Just need a decent and plausible leader. They now have a decent UK leader which is another precondition, and the prospect of the politics of economic recovery overtaking the constitution as the prevailing concern - which is on its way, once the pandemic recedes.
    Still waiting for the slightest sign of an SKS Scotch breakthrough, or an indication that SLab/Lab have learned anything from their series of disastrous (for them) Scottish approaches. Nada so far.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    "On this site we have a variety of forms of nationalists"

    The most insidious, of course, are extreme Cornish (or visa versa) nationalists bent on their diabolical "Greater East Cornwall Co-Prosperity Sphere" extending from Shepard's Bush Roundabout to the Tamar.

    Do NOT let the Pasty-Faced villains get away with their knavish tricks!
  • isamisam Posts: 41,317
    isam said:
    Someone should probably write a thread on this, you don't get much more political betting than Stuart Wheeler
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,664
    Well...

    Twitter (TWTR) is actively exploring additional ways to make money from its users, including by considering a subscription model, CEO Jack Dorsey said Thursday. The move comes as Twitter suffers a sharp decline in its core advertising business.

    "You will likely see some tests this year" of various approaches, Dorsey told analysts on an investor call held to discuss the company's second quarter earnings results. Dorsey said he has "a really high bar for when we would ask consumers to pay for aspects of Twitter," but confirmed that the company is seeking to diversify its sources of revenue in what are "very, very early phases of exploring."

    https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/23/tech/twitter-subscription-earnings/index.html
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,012
    isam said:
    Ave atque vale, visionary and gent.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    ydoethur said:

    The word ‘just’ is doing a lot of heavy lifting there - it was sixty years before.

    There’s quite an extensive bibliography here, not including the article itself which is tangential to your point.

    https://academic.oup.com/ereh/article/17/4/408/499216

    Alfani’s Calamities and the Economy in Renaissance Italy: The Grand Tour of the Horsemen of the Apocalypse looks potentially the most interesting one to start with.
    When you get to my age, 60 years is "just." And the point stands anyway - if they had been expelled and not readmitted, there was no point in claiming that they were poisoning the wells. A pogrom without Jews is like a pizza without pineapple.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Well...

    Twitter (TWTR) is actively exploring additional ways to make money from its users, including by considering a subscription model, CEO Jack Dorsey said Thursday. The move comes as Twitter suffers a sharp decline in its core advertising business.

    "You will likely see some tests this year" of various approaches, Dorsey told analysts on an investor call held to discuss the company's second quarter earnings results. Dorsey said he has "a really high bar for when we would ask consumers to pay for aspects of Twitter," but confirmed that the company is seeking to diversify its sources of revenue in what are "very, very early phases of exploring."

    https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/23/tech/twitter-subscription-earnings/index.html

    They must be in trouble. Smacks of desperation. Corporate entities and celebs might be willing to pay for the privilege of broadcasting their meaningless soundbites and advertising this week's new product, but the ordinary users?

    Screaming at the world for free is one thing, parting with money to do it is quite another.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    I hope I am wrong but I think the enforced mask wearing will make the Covid situation worse in the UK and that in 2 weeks new cases will be over 1000 per day. If face coverings were the solution then the WHO would have recommended them back in March but they didn’t. Countries where face coverings are far more prevalent than the UK are seeing rises in cases now and I fear we will be the same. Social distancing and hand washing have worked in the UK , Deaths are below average and the number of new cases is under control. There is no need for this change and I fear it will have the opposite of the desired effect.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,735

    I hope I am wrong but I think the enforced mask wearing will make the Covid situation worse in the UK and that in 2 weeks new cases will be over 1000 per day. If face coverings were the solution then the WHO would have recommended them back in March but they didn’t. Countries where face coverings are far more prevalent than the UK are seeing rises in cases now and I fear we will be the same. Social distancing and hand washing have worked in the UK , Deaths are below average and the number of new cases is under control. There is no need for this change and I fear it will have the opposite of the desired effect.

    How much do you want to bet? As that timescale doesn't work due to the low base we would be starting from.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,385

    I hope I am wrong but I think the enforced mask wearing will make the Covid situation worse in the UK and that in 2 weeks new cases will be over 1000 per day. If face coverings were the solution then the WHO would have recommended them back in March but they didn’t. Countries where face coverings are far more prevalent than the UK are seeing rises in cases now and I fear we will be the same. Social distancing and hand washing have worked in the UK , Deaths are below average and the number of new cases is under control. There is no need for this change and I fear it will have the opposite of the desired effect.

    We need to stop surgeons from wearing masks now. Thank goodness @NerysHughes has identified this massive issue.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,550

    They must be in trouble. Smacks of desperation. Corporate entities and celebs might be willing to pay for the privilege of broadcasting their meaningless soundbites and advertising this week's new product, but the ordinary users?

    Screaming at the world for free is one thing, parting with money to do it is quite another.
    I would heartily rejoice if Twitter were to crash and burn.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,735

    They must be in trouble. Smacks of desperation. Corporate entities and celebs might be willing to pay for the privilege of broadcasting their meaningless soundbites and advertising this week's new product, but the ordinary users?

    Screaming at the world for free is one thing, parting with money to do it is quite another.
    Someone who knows a lot about Social Media marketing pointed out that every test he had every ran showed that advertising on Twitter just doesn't work.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,838

    I hope I am wrong but I think the enforced mask wearing will make the Covid situation worse in the UK and that in 2 weeks new cases will be over 1000 per day. If face coverings were the solution then the WHO would have recommended them back in March but they didn’t. Countries where face coverings are far more prevalent than the UK are seeing rises in cases now and I fear we will be the same. Social distancing and hand washing have worked in the UK , Deaths are below average and the number of new cases is under control. There is no need for this change and I fear it will have the opposite of the desired effect.

    This is such a bad faith argument.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Thursday NYT

    Judge Orders Cohen Released, Citing ‘Retaliation’ Over Tell-All Book

    A judge agreed that federal officials had returned Michael D. Cohen to prison because he wanted to publish a book this fall about President Trump.

    A federal judge on Thursday ordered that Michael D. Cohen be released into home confinement after finding that federal officials had returned him to prison in retaliation for his plans to write a tell-all memoir about President Trump.

    The judge, Alvin K. Hellerstein of Federal District Court, said Mr. Cohen was sent back to prison this month after several weeks of medical furlough because of his desire to publish a book before the election about his years as Mr. Trump’s personal lawyer and fixer.

    “I make the finding that the purpose of transferring Mr. Cohen from furlough and home confinement to jail is retaliatory,” the judge said. “And it’s retaliation because of his desire to exercise his First Amendment rights to publish a book and to discuss anything about the book or anything else he wants on social media and with others.” . . .

    . . . on July 9, prisons officials abruptly returned Mr. Cohen to prison after he balked at signing an agreement outlining the terms of his release. Those terms included a provision that would have prevented him from publishing a book, his suit said.

    In court papers filed this week, prisons officials denied Mr. Cohen was sent back to prison because of his book; rather, they said, he had been “combative” and “defiant” when they met to discuss the agreement, and they considered such behavior to be “unacceptable.”

    In his suit, Mr. Cohen claimed that he never hid the fact that he was writing a book about Mr. Trump. He noted that he spent his mornings working on the manuscript “in plain sight” in the prison’s law library, and said he also discussed the project openly with prison officials, staff members and even other inmates.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    kle4 said:

    You don't sound like you hope you are wrong.
    Of course I hope I’m wrong as if cases go up the government will force mask wearing every time you go outside which is the case in Spain at the moment.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    edited July 2020
    rcs1000 said:

    We need to stop surgeons from wearing masks now. Thank goodness @NerysHughes has identified this massive issue.

    Surgeons wear face fitted masks.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,255
    isam said:
    At least he lived long enough to see his Brexit dream realised.

    RIP.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620

    Why wouldn't we just export it? The people currently buying the fish presumably will continue to want to do so.
    Through Dover?!
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    SCUP flatlined on about 15% for 20 years. Looked unrevivable. SLAB, it seems to me, has much more potential to recover. Just need a decent and plausible leader. They now have a decent UK leader which is another precondition, and the prospect of the politics of economic recovery overtaking the constitution as the prevailing concern - which is on its way, once the pandemic recedes.
    That does strike one as a somewhat optimistic take on SLAB's prospects. As with absolutely everything else in Scottish politics, the recovery will be viewed through the prism of sovereignty: the Scottish Government will simply condemn whatever the UK Government does as insufficient and/or incompetent and state that it could do a lot better if it controlled all the Treasury's levers itself. And all of its supporters will agree.

    Nobody who has already switched to the independence side of the argument is in the least bit interested in what Labour has to say about anything.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,012
    On the evidence wrt masks it's worth looking at Freddy Sayer's interview with two epidemiologists on Unherd's LockdownTV.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,255
    kinabalu said:

    Each person, regardless of what country they live in, should aspire to be the best version of themselves and live the best life they can.

    The notion of Nation States trying to be "great" does not thrill me. Happy to leave that to fetishists like you and Tyndall.
    I have never said a single word about nation states being 'great'. It is enough that they are indeed nation states and provide the stable cultural, social and political platform necessary for democracy to work. I see nothing 'great' about imposing our will on others although I do believe we have a duty to stand by and help other like minded states to preserve their freedoms.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620

    That does strike one as a somewhat optimistic take on SLAB's prospects. As with absolutely everything else in Scottish politics, the recovery will be viewed through the prism of sovereignty: the Scottish Government will simply condemn whatever the UK Government does as insufficient and/or incompetent and state that it could do a lot better if it controlled all the Treasury's levers itself. And all of its supporters will agree.

    Nobody who has already switched to the independence side of the argument is in the least bit interested in what Labour has to say about anything.
    In fairness, it's a bit more nuanced than that - quite a few Labour voters voted for indy. But that at once raises the question iof what effect a harder anti-indy policy by Labour HQ in London would have.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,330
    Carnyx said:

    Through Dover?!
    Would that be the sole route?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,106
    edited July 2020


    At least he lived long enough to see his Brexit dream realised.

    RIP.
    We’re in the promised sunlit uplands already? I must have missed that.

    As a gambling man he has probably died at the optimum moment. He saw the vote get won and the decision implemented, in principle if not in practice, but won’t be around to see the slow grinding damage that will be done by erecting barriers between ourselves and our closest neighbours, and our slow but steady loss of influence and credibility on the world stage.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620

    Would that be the sole route?
    It's the main plaice - but in the absence of anything more direct from Scotlan d there's not much to choose. In all seriousness, here is an example of the concern: and that's before (a) tariifs and (b) mr Johnson follows Mr Thatcher and sells out the Scottish fishermen (it's not as if he gives a monkey's for Jock seats, when he has a majority like that, any more than he worried about the DUP when selling NI out by his and their standards):

    https://www.berwickshirenews.co.uk/news/d-r-collin-facing-reality-brexit-114194
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    It will take another three or four months for it to become apparent that the only choice we ever faced was to go back to normal and accept the risks, or face a complete meltdown.

  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    Of course I hope I’m wrong as if cases go up the government will force mask wearing every time you go outside which is the case in Spain at the moment.
    It’s no great imposition even though it’s 31/32 in the shade. Lots of discussion about what is now required in bars and restaurants and it looks like they need to be worn unless you are actually eating or drinking. This will take some enforcement although to be honest we are wearing our masks round the neck ready to lift glass if police come in. The overall advice is if confronted by police pay up, arguing will double your fine, enforcement starts tomorrow.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556

    I hope I am wrong but I think the enforced mask wearing will make the Covid situation worse in the UK and that in 2 weeks new cases will be over 1000 per day. If face coverings were the solution then the WHO would have recommended them back in March but they didn’t. Countries where face coverings are far more prevalent than the UK are seeing rises in cases now and I fear we will be the same. Social distancing and hand washing have worked in the UK , Deaths are below average and the number of new cases is under control. There is no need for this change and I fear it will have the opposite of the desired effect.

    That does assume that mask-wearers will stop washing their hands and will start hugging one another violently. I suggest that this is unlikely...

    Interesting pre-print (naturally to be used with caution) from two weeks ago:

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.22.20109231v4

    'In countries with cultural norms or government policies supporting public mask-wearing, per-capita coronavirus mortality increased on average by just 7.2% each week, as compared with 55.0% each week in remaining countries.'
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,255
    rcs1000 said:

    My points are a bit more nuanced.

    (1) If you strip quotas from one group of people, but leave them with others, then you open yourself up to legal challenge. If you completely abolished quotas then it's a very different situation. If you started from scratch, i.e. auctioning rights off each year, then you probably wouldn't have a problem. But it would be a disaster for fishing communities.

    (2) Even if you made it so only British people and firms could own fishing quotas, you wouldn't necessarily change the amount of fish landed in the UK by Brits. Already a large chunk of British fish quotas are owned by Brits by effectively operated by others who never even dock at UK ports.

    (3) We seem unclear as to our ultimate goal. Is it to protect British fishermen? Or is to have an efficient fishing industry? "Taking back control" - to a struggling fisherman - does not mean that rights become British but nothing changes.
    1. If you start from scratch and copy the system in other countries where the quotas cannot be sold and revert to the Government if the owner relinquishes control then your supposed problems disappear.

    2 easily solved by doing what the UK fishing industry has pressed for and say at least 60% of UK quota boats must be UK crewed and at least 60% of the catch must be landed in the UK.

    3. The two are not mutually exclusive. I would certainly ban the large factory fishing vessels not just on the grounds of protecting UK fishermen but also (actually more so) for environmental reasons.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,630
    Thank-you all for the interesting chatter about fishing quotas.

    As we know the CFP process in 197x was a bit of a last-minute mugging.

    NEF did an interesting survey on this a few years ago - and there are a number of different ways in which this is run depending on the country.

    https://neweconomics.org/uploads/images/2017/04/1513-NEF-English-Executive-Summary-Report.pdf

    As I see it, there is no reason for example why these can't be a publicly owned resource rented for a period at a time. Or any other lawful arrangement we wish to adopt.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,255
    IanB2 said:

    We’re in the promised sunlit uplands already? I must have missed that.

    As a gambling man he has probably died at the optimum moment. He saw the vote get won and the decision implemented, in principle if not in practice, but won’t be around to see the slow grinding damage that will be done by erecting barriers between ourselves and our closest neighbours, and our slow but steady loss of influence and credibility on the world stage.
    It must be sad to be such an eternal pessimist.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    I hope I am wrong but I think the enforced mask wearing will make the Covid situation worse in the UK and that in 2 weeks new cases will be over 1000 per day. If face coverings were the solution then the WHO would have recommended them back in March but they didn’t. Countries where face coverings are far more prevalent than the UK are seeing rises in cases now and I fear we will be the same. Social distancing and hand washing have worked in the UK , Deaths are below average and the number of new cases is under control. There is no need for this change and I fear it will have the opposite of the desired effect.

    I hope I am wrong but I think the enforced mask wearing will make the Covid situation worse in the UK and that in 2 weeks new cases will be over 1000 per day. If face coverings were the solution then the WHO would have recommended them back in March but they didn’t. Countries where face coverings are far more prevalent than the UK are seeing rises in cases now and I fear we will be the same. Social distancing and hand washing have worked in the UK , Deaths are below average and the number of new cases is under control. There is no need for this change and I fear it will have the opposite of the desired effect.

    There were not enough masks to go around in March, how does mask wearing make things worse? Whilst not wishing it on the UK I fully expect them to follow the outbreak profile becoming apparent in Spain and France given they have done nothing to avoid it.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620

    1. If you start from scratch and copy the system in other countries where the quotas cannot be sold and revert to the Government if the owner relinquishes control then your supposed problems disappear.

    2 easily solved by doing what the UK fishing industry has pressed for and say at least 60% of UK quota boats must be UK crewed and at least 60% of the catch must be landed in the UK.

    3. The two are not mutually exclusive. I would certainly ban the large factory fishing vessels not just on the grounds of protecting UK fishermen but also (actually more so) for environmental reasons.
    THose are criticval issues, so really good to see you variously discussing them.

    And yet stripping holders of quotas does huge damage to the fishing barons. The great Brexit supporters. Is that plausible?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,330
    Restrain yersels, ladies (or gents if that's yer thing).

    https://twitter.com/alanferrier/status/1286381171362934787?s=20
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,198
    edited July 2020
    malcolmg said:

    The Chinese will be having a good laugh at Raab and company. Not even paper tigers.
    According to my Chinese friends, Huawei is making Xi & Co savagely angry.

    The HK residency thing also making them spitting mad - apparently the pro-CCP types on social media* are demanding that anyone with a British HK passport give it up or be declared a traitor.

    The other thing that would hurt is putting officials on the sanctioned list.

    A member of the family works in very high end retail - her stories of wives on phones to their husbands, when they realise the bank accounts/cards are blocked by the UK processing systems....

    *The CCP spends a fortune on their troll armies.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Of course I hope I’m wrong as if cases go up the government will force mask wearing every time you go outside which is the case in Spain at the moment.
    I'm worried that this is where we are headed. Ordering masks everywhere suits the Government because it can be seen to be "doing something," irrespective of whether or not said something is to any significant degree useful.

    Regardless of the established very low risk of contracting the disease in the open air, and the fact that its prevalence is also very low in most of the country, the *theoretical* difference that masking *might* make can be used to justify imposing it in virtually all situations.

    Give it a couple of months and it'll be illegal to walk alone across an empty field without a rag on your face. In practice, however, mask wearing in such situations is effectively unenforceable and is liable to be disregarded by a large fraction of the population. If enough people are sufficiently sceptical of it then it might even fail to catch on properly in shops, unless the staff have been instructed to apply the rule strictly - and businesses have already been told that they aren't responsible for doing so.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,255
    Carnyx said:

    THose are criticval issues, so really good to see you variously discussing them.

    And yet stripping holders of quotas does huge damage to the fishing barons. The great Brexit supporters. Is that plausible?
    Not sure it is politically plausible but I would hope that Sturgeon would have the gumption to do it. Personally I think she would. Not to say they would not go back to them again if the fulfilled the criteria but I would also like to see them distributed on a more equitable basis and not just auctioned off to the highest bidder. Again I would more faith in Scotland achieving that than England at present.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,804

    I have never said a single word about nation states being 'great'. It is enough that they are indeed nation states and provide the stable cultural, social and political platform necessary for democracy to work. I see nothing 'great' about imposing our will on others although I do believe we have a duty to stand by and help other like minded states to preserve their freedoms.
    OK sorry - inappropriate coupling with another poster. Yes the nation state can be a valuable and suitable entity for those purposes. I will agree that much.

    As regards greatness. A country that creates a prosperous and peaceful society, free from ugly inequalities of class or race or gender, that plays its full part in seeking to solve global problems, and that seeks only win/win relationships with other countries - this is the only form of National Greatness that I have any interest in.

    And it's challenging enough for anybody. The rest of the "greatness" bullshit is typically a ruse to prevent people noticing that it isn't happening.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,012
    geoffw said:

    On the evidence wrt masks it's worth looking at Freddy Sayer's interview with two epidemiologists on Unherd's LockdownTV.

    –> Suppression of the virus is not viable. Is Professor Devi Sridhar listening?

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,106

    It must be sad to be such an eternal pessimist.
    On the contrary, it is continually uplifting that things generally turn out to be at least no worse than I was expecting.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620

    Not sure it is politically plausible but I would hope that Sturgeon would have the gumption to do it. Personally I think she would. Not to say they would not go back to them again if the fulfilled the criteria but I would also like to see them distributed on a more equitable basis and not just auctioned off to the highest bidder. Again I would more faith in Scotland achieving that than England at present.
    That's an interesting assessment. Not least because London might try to seize control of the process, which would be another barrel of lugworms entirely.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,479
    Evening All :)

    First, thanks to @Philip_Thompson and others for their kind words concerning my brother's health.

    I spoke to him today - he is doing well - but there must be others like him who are trapped by the virus. They have it, they are carriers but cannot currently get rid of it. We also know from @Foxy and others that for some recovery from coronavirus isn't complete and there are significant long-term medical and physical impacts even if one survives the initial virus.

    There seems an assumption you get the virus and you get better but that's simplistic and naive. For some, it's not "better" and it's not back to where they were. I can't understand why people continue to treat this virus with such contempt - it's a horrible thing which for thousands has been fatal and with which many thousands of others will have to live for years to come.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,255
    MattW said:

    Thank-you all for the interesting chatter about fishing quotas.

    As we know the CFP process in 197x was a bit of a last-minute mugging.

    NEF did an interesting survey on this a few years ago - and there are a number of different ways in which this is run depending on the country.

    https://neweconomics.org/uploads/images/2017/04/1513-NEF-English-Executive-Summary-Report.pdf

    As I see it, there is no reason for example why these can't be a publicly owned resource rented for a period at a time. Or any other lawful arrangement we wish to adopt.

    Yep it is quite remarkable that the EEC rushed through the new regulations just hours before the formal applications were due to arrive just to make sure the CFP became part of the acquis communitaire. It puts the lie to the idea that this was just us signing up for business as usual rather than a power grab for North Sea fishing rights.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,479

    It will take another three or four months for it to become apparent that the only choice we ever faced was to go back to normal and accept the risks, or face a complete meltdown.

    For my brother, there is no "choice" as you call it. He is trapped by and with the virus and there are many like him.

    It's not all about "economic meltdown" as you put it.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,198
    isam said:

    Anything connect these places, bar a lot of covid spreading?

    Cases per 100k population for these areas.

    image
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    stodge said:

    Evening All :)

    First, thanks to @Philip_Thompson and others for their kind words concerning my brother's health.

    I spoke to him today - he is doing well - but there must be others like him who are trapped by the virus. They have it, they are carriers but cannot currently get rid of it. We also know from @Foxy and others that for some recovery from coronavirus isn't complete and there are significant long-term medical and physical impacts even if one survives the initial virus.

    There seems an assumption you get the virus and you get better but that's simplistic and naive. For some, it's not "better" and it's not back to where they were. I can't understand why people continue to treat this virus with such contempt - it's a horrible thing which for thousands has been fatal and with which many thousands of others will have to live for years to come.

    This is an excellent and important post. The virus is plainly about debility and even permanent disability as much as death.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,029
    edited July 2020

    Restrain yersels, ladies (or gents if that's yer thing).

    https://twitter.com/alanferrier/status/1286381171362934787?s=20

    That is a great Scottish business to be fair

    I know it well
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,296

    Restrain yersels, ladies (or gents if that's yer thing).

    https://twitter.com/alanferrier/status/1286381171362934787?s=20

    A curious stance.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,255
    Carnyx said:

    That's an interesting assessment. Not least because London might try to seize control of the process, which would be another barrel of lugworms entirely.
    I am sure they might. In this case it would be more interesting and certainly more controversial than the power grabs already underway on returning powers since the awarding of quotas is already devolved to the individual Parliaments so there could be no pretence of anything other than taking powers away from Holyrood.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,479
    I must confess I was beginning to wonder. As the Rasmussen crosstabs are behind a paywall (as are the Trafalgar ones), I simply don't know how their sampling is different from other pollsters but the current +2 lead for Biden sticks out like an outlier (as does the +15 lead from Quinnipiac).

    The latter has now produced a +13 lead for Biden in Florida (51-38) while St Pete Polls has Biden ahead 50-44.

    We also had the Hill/Harris X poll last evening - Biden leads 45-38 in that. The regional split has Biden up 45-39 in the North East which seems remarkably good for Trump and 45-38 in the Midwest which seems remarkably good for Biden. Biden up 50-32 in the West and 42-41 in the South.

    Biden leads 47-37 among White voters (really?). Among men Biden leads 44-42 (really again?) and among women by 47-34.

    Not at all convinced by this poll to be honest.


  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620

    I am sure they might. In this case it would be more interesting and certainly more controversial than the power grabs already underway on returning powers since the awarding of quotas is already devolved to the individual Parliaments so there could be no pretence of anything other than taking powers away from Holyrood.
    Now that is an acute observation.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,198
    isam said:

    Anything connect these places, bar a lot of covid spreading?

    Cases per 100k population for these areas.

    image

    I suggest, for a connection, look at demographics.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,296
    stodge said:

    Evening All :)

    First, thanks to @Philip_Thompson and others for their kind words concerning my brother's health.

    I spoke to him today - he is doing well - but there must be others like him who are trapped by the virus. They have it, they are carriers but cannot currently get rid of it. We also know from @Foxy and others that for some recovery from coronavirus isn't complete and there are significant long-term medical and physical impacts even if one survives the initial virus.

    There seems an assumption you get the virus and you get better but that's simplistic and naive. For some, it's not "better" and it's not back to where they were. I can't understand why people continue to treat this virus with such contempt - it's a horrible thing which for thousands has been fatal and with which many thousands of others will have to live for years to come.

    If we haven't yet been touched by the virus, sometimes the statistics appear only as numbers and not the personal heartache those who find themselves closer to the disease have to endure.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    nichomar said:

    There were not enough masks to go around in March, how does mask wearing make things worse? Whilst not wishing it on the UK I fully expect them to follow the outbreak profile becoming apparent in Spain and France given they have done nothing to avoid it.
    Is mask wearing very prevalent in Spain ?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,480

    A curious stance.
    Woeful!

    The grim old thing that is our PM eh!?

    Still gets my vote though.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Life really can be shitty sometimes

    My youngest son's friend really has had a shit couple of years

    A year ago today his mum died

    Today his younger brother committed suicide

    This year that lad will be turning 18

    Grim, just so grim.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,479
    As an aside, while my employer is making no plans to return to our office premises, Mrs Stodge is not so fortunate.

    She is stressed because her Manager and others are putting enormous psychological pressure on staff to return to the office even though they can only operate at 25% capacity. Essentially, they want her to go in one day per week from next month.

    She has health issues which put her in the "moderate risk" category (and that includes me as well) but her employer has said she needs to produce a medical certificate explaining why she cannot travel into the office or she will have to take a day's unpaid leave.

    It's so disappointing that organisations, unable to accept the world has changed, are resorting to "bully boy" tactics to force people back to desk-based office work. I don't believe Mrs Stodge's health (or indeed anyone's) should be compromised by those who think saving Pret a Manger and transport operators is worth risking people's lives.

    It would be welcome to have a Government who saw the opportunities of the revolution in home working and encouraged and supported it rather than trying to drag everyone back to a version of "normality" that now seems like ancient history.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,255
    Carnyx said:

    Now that is an acute observation.
    There are a number of things that sadden me about the way in which things have developed since Brexit. One of them is that we have Boris leading the country. For all that others hate him I would much rather have seen Gove in charge (or pretty much anyone else). The completely unnecessary Henry VIII powers is another. Ultimate powers should reside with Parliament not the Executive.

    But one of the really scandalous one was May's decision, continued by Johnson, to use the return of powers from Brussels as an excuse to seize more control over the devolved nations. There are huge swathes of former EU laws that should be devolved straight to Holyrood for example. Of course there will be a lot which needs to be more carefully considered as it has national impact but anything that was in an area that was already a devolved power when we were inside the EU should go straight to the devolved legislatures afterwards.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,480

    There are a number of things that sadden me about the way in which things have developed since Brexit. One of them is that we have Boris leading the country. For all that others hate him I would much rather have seen Gove in charge (or pretty much anyone else). The completely unnecessary Henry VIII powers is another. Ultimate powers should reside with Parliament not the Executive.

    But one of the really scandalous one was May's decision, continued by Johnson, to use the return of powers from Brussels as an excuse to seize more control over the devolved nations. There are huge swathes of former EU laws that should be devolved straight to Holyrood for example. Of course there will be a lot which needs to be more carefully considered as it has national impact but anything that was in an area that was already a devolved power when we were inside the EU should go straight to the devolved legislatures afterwards.
    There was along the way a good chance of much worse.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    Is mask wearing very prevalent in Spain ?
    Close to 100% out in the street, 100% in shops, hospitals etc bars restaurants about to move to 100%. €100 fine if caught
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,530
    stodge said:

    I must confess I was beginning to wonder. As the Rasmussen crosstabs are behind a paywall (as are the Trafalgar ones), I simply don't know how their sampling is different from other pollsters but the current +2 lead for Biden sticks out like an outlier (as does the +15 lead from Quinnipiac).

    The latter has now produced a +13 lead for Biden in Florida (51-38) while St Pete Polls has Biden ahead 50-44.

    We also had the Hill/Harris X poll last evening - Biden leads 45-38 in that. The regional split has Biden up 45-39 in the North East which seems remarkably good for Trump and 45-38 in the Midwest which seems remarkably good for Biden. Biden up 50-32 in the West and 42-41 in the South.

    Biden leads 47-37 among White voters (really?). Among men Biden leads 44-42 (really again?) and among women by 47-34.

    Not at all convinced by this poll to be honest.


    I wont believe the polls are not under sampling or just plain wrong until Biden is sat in the Oval Office with his feet on Resolute desk.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,296
    Omnium said:

    Woeful!

    The grim old thing that is our PM eh!?

    Still gets my vote though.
    He never would have got mine anyway.

    If Mr Johnson demonstrated competence, the fact that it looks like he may have had a little accident in the trouser department, wouldn't bother me.

    It was merely an observation.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,038
    stodge said:

    I must confess I was beginning to wonder. As the Rasmussen crosstabs are behind a paywall (as are the Trafalgar ones), I simply don't know how their sampling is different from other pollsters but the current +2 lead for Biden sticks out like an outlier (as does the +15 lead from Quinnipiac).

    The latter has now produced a +13 lead for Biden in Florida (51-38) while St Pete Polls has Biden ahead 50-44.

    We also had the Hill/Harris X poll last evening - Biden leads 45-38 in that. The regional split has Biden up 45-39 in the North East which seems remarkably good for Trump and 45-38 in the Midwest which seems remarkably good for Biden. Biden up 50-32 in the West and 42-41 in the South.

    Biden leads 47-37 among White voters (really?). Among men Biden leads 44-42 (really again?) and among women by 47-34.

    Not at all convinced by this poll to be honest.


    Should be pointed out in 2016 Rasmussen were the only pollster to correctly have a Hillary popular vote lead of 2% and Trafalgar group were the only pollster to have Trump ahead in Pennsylvania and Michigan
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,479


    If we haven't yet been touched by the virus, sometimes the statistics appear only as numbers and not the personal heartache those who find themselves closer to the disease have to endure.

    Thank you for the thoughtful word, my friend.

    I can only sympathise with those who have lost family members as a result of this and seeing lines on a graph seems to further trivialise this.

    I thought Spain, in having a national service of remembrance for the dead, struck the right chord. I'd like to think instead of bellicose rantings about "normality", we will take a moment to remember those who are no longer with us.

    My brother is 100 miles away - it wouldn't matter if he were 100 yards away in truth. He lives in a small village and went to the local cafe in mid March and thinks he contracted the virus then. He first tested positive on March 31st and has now tested positive on three occasions and never tested negative.

    I suspect the chemotherapy he underwent to treat cancer last year weakened his immune system which left him vulnerable to infection and unable to shift the virus once he got it.

    I hope he will get over this and if there is a vaccine he will be a priority to receive it.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    nichomar said:

    Close to 100% out in the street, 100% in shops, hospitals etc bars restaurants about to move to 100%. €100 fine if caught
    It would be more interesting to understand the extent to which mask wearing is embraced as a worthwhile civic obligation, as opposed to being something that needs to be done to avoid the very real risk of having one's wallet emptied by a large and very zealous police force. I reckon that the thing most likely to frustrate masks everywhere in this country, which is probably where the Government would eventually like to go, is the lack of effective enforcement.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,038
    isam said:
    RIP He helped keep the Tories afloat in the Blair years
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,240
    stodge said:

    For my brother, there is no "choice" as you call it. He is trapped by and with the virus and there are many like him.

    It's not all about "economic meltdown" as you put it.
    The Southern states of the USA, Brazil and now India are busy demonstrating what attempting going back to Normal means.

    It demonstrates that people do not function economically normally in an unrestrained pandemic.

    Eliminating the disease via immunisation or Track and Trace is the way back to economic and social normality. Its a bit shit, but that is the nature of disease, we cannot ignore it away.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,296
    stodge said:

    Thank you for the thoughtful word, my friend.

    I can only sympathise with those who have lost family members as a result of this and seeing lines on a graph seems to further trivialise this.

    I thought Spain, in having a national service of remembrance for the dead, struck the right chord. I'd like to think instead of bellicose rantings about "normality", we will take a moment to remember those who are no longer with us.

    My brother is 100 miles away - it wouldn't matter if he were 100 yards away in truth. He lives in a small village and went to the local cafe in mid March and thinks he contracted the virus then. He first tested positive on March 31st and has now tested positive on three occasions and never tested negative.

    I suspect the chemotherapy he underwent to treat cancer last year weakened his immune system which left him vulnerable to infection and unable to shift the virus once he got it.

    I hope he will get over this and if there is a vaccine he will be a priority to receive it.
    The media and politicians focusing on numbers to demonstrate how well or badly a government is doing against the virus is quite distateful, although inevitable I guess. Best wishes.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    It would be more interesting to understand the extent to which mask wearing is embraced as a worthwhile civic obligation, as opposed to being something that needs to be done to avoid the very real risk of having one's wallet emptied by a large and very zealous police force. I reckon that the thing most likely to frustrate masks everywhere in this country, which is probably where the Government would eventually like to go, is the lack of effective enforcement.
    Most of Those over 50 adopted masks immediately when the new rules came out for masks Iin the street. The younger generation need coercion even though it is they who are catching and spreading the virus. We’re 7 days away from the Madrid invasion so street wearing will at least make people think before hugging and kissing each other. Enforcement is spain is a lot easier given four times the number of law enforcement personnel compared to the UK.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,838
    HYUFD said:
    Interesting that Priti Patel would beat everyone except Gove, Raab and Sunak.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,035
    edited July 2020

    Of course I hope I’m wrong as if cases go up the government will force mask wearing every time you go outside which is the case in Spain at the moment.
    I thought a couple of PBers who actually live in Spain told you you earlier that the rise in infections in Spain were mainly coming from situations where masks were still not worn, eg clusters from nightclubs. I suspect they are more clued up on what is actually happening in Spain but it doesn't fit your agenda so you ignore it?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,296
    edited July 2020
    stodge said:

    For my brother, there is no "choice" as you call it. He is trapped by and with the virus and there are many like him.

    It's not all about "economic meltdown" as you put it.
    You have eloquently shot down a ridiculously crass comment.

    It is these people who assume they are not in the line of fire, and can carry on regardless, that will do untold harm to the rest of us.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,330
    HYUFD said:

    RIP He helped keep the Tories afloat in the Blair years
    Still, you've got the Russians now.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    edited July 2020
    OllyT said:

    I thought a couple of PBers who actually live in Spain told you you earlier that the rise in infections in Spain were mainly coming from situations where masks were still not worn, ie clusters from nightclubs. Are you ignoring that because it doesn't fit your agenda?
    I’ll find some breakdowns tomorrow of where these outbreaks are coming from but off the top of my head

    Night bars frequented by young people
    Family gatherings at home or in restaurants

    The first infections in this wave came from meat processing plants.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,038
    edited July 2020

    Interesting that Priti Patel would beat everyone except Gove, Raab and Sunak.
    Indeed, in my view Sunak is the likely next leader if Boris goes before the next general election or after the Tories win the next general election, Patel however is likely next leader if the Tories lose the next general election and Boris goes after the defeat (if the Tories lose Raab will likely have lost his seat anyway)
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,035
    edited July 2020

    I hope I am wrong but I think the enforced mask wearing will make the Covid situation worse in the UK and that in 2 weeks new cases will be over 1000 per day. If face coverings were the solution then the WHO would have recommended them back in March but they didn’t. Countries where face coverings are far more prevalent than the UK are seeing rises in cases now and I fear we will be the same. Social distancing and hand washing have worked in the UK , Deaths are below average and the number of new cases is under control. There is no need for this change and I fear it will have the opposite of the desired effect.

    How on earth is more people covering their faces going to make matters worse?

    Cases will rise, there will be further lockdowns but it won't be the fault of mask wearers it will more likely be the fault of those Brits who are too bloody minded/selfish/ ignorant/idle to bother taking the minimal precautions.
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