politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trump voters maybe far more enthusiastic about their man than

First!

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

Enthusiasm doesn't increase the weight of your vote, though.

It kind of does, in that it increases the probability that you'll cast it.

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

Enthusiasm doesn't increase the weight of your vote, though.

As Boris knows, having received a lot of distinctly unenthusiastic votes by dint of his opponent. As will Biden.

Foxy said:

The "Anyone But Trump" vote will be a powerful motivator of enthusiasm.

Joe Biden has the advantage of being hard to see as a threat. He isn't a great candidate, but there isn't much that would frighten blue collar Americans.

Sometimes we miss the obvious when obsessed with what happened last time. I don't think Trump can pull off a repeat of 2016. He is a known factor now. Biden is leading by 8 points in the polls, and that seems to be increasing slowly.

I tbink we can believe the polls* and that Trump 2020 will compare to 2016 as Corbyn 2019 did to 2017, with abject defeat. Indeed it probably needs to be a landslide to prevent the result being challenged.

* 3 months for these to change of course...

I 100% agree and will go one step further.

Before the 2019 election I said that it needed to be a landslide for the sake of the country to say to the Labour Party that they had to change. That a continuity Corbyn "one more heave" candidate was not what was needed if they want to be taken seriously.

The same needs to happen in the United States of America. For the sake of the country Biden needs to win a landslide. The GOP needs to see clearly and unambiguously that Trump was a terrible, catastrophic mistake. The GOP needs a tremendous wake up call like Corbyn19, Foot83, Dukakis88 etc so that next primary season if a Trump-style candidate is running the voters look back at 2020 and say "never again".

Sometimes an election defeat has to hurt to make you think and realise what needs to be done next. That was 2019 election night for many Labourites. For those still voting GOP I want the result in November to hurt them.

IanB2 said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

Enthusiasm doesn't increase the weight of your vote, though.

As Boris knows, having received a lot of distinctly unenthusiastic votes by dint of his opponent. As will Biden.

Boris was a two for one package which is what helped win the landslide.

A lot of people were enthusiastic to defeat his opponent.
But equally a lot of people were enthusiastically pro-Boris.

Boris has a lot of fans.

Philip_Thompson said:

Foxy said:

The "Anyone But Trump" vote will be a powerful motivator of enthusiasm.

Joe Biden has the advantage of being hard to see as a threat. He isn't a great candidate, but there isn't much that would frighten blue collar Americans.

Sometimes we miss the obvious when obsessed with what happened last time. I don't think Trump can pull off a repeat of 2016. He is a known factor now. Biden is leading by 8 points in the polls, and that seems to be increasing slowly.

I tbink we can believe the polls* and that Trump 2020 will compare to 2016 as Corbyn 2019 did to 2017, with abject defeat. Indeed it probably needs to be a landslide to prevent the result being challenged.

* 3 months for these to change of course...

I 100% agree and will go one step further.

Before the 2019 election I said that it needed to be a landslide for the sake of the country to say to the Labour Party that they had to change. That a continuity Corbyn "one more heave" candidate was not what was needed if they want to be taken seriously.

The same needs to happen in the United States of America. For the sake of the country Biden needs to win a landslide. The GOP needs to see clearly and unambiguously that Trump was a terrible, catastrophic mistake. The GOP needs a tremendous wake up call like Corbyn19, Foot83, Dukakis88 etc so that next primary season if a Trump-style candidate is running the voters look back at 2020 and say "never again".

Sometimes an election defeat has to hurt to make you think and realise what needs to be done next. That was 2019 election night for many Labourites. For those still voting GOP I want the result in November to hurt them.

I agree with most of that, but what was so bad about Dukakis?

Philip_Thompson said:

Foxy said:

The "Anyone But Trump" vote will be a powerful motivator of enthusiasm.

Joe Biden has the advantage of being hard to see as a threat. He isn't a great candidate, but there isn't much that would frighten blue collar Americans.

Sometimes we miss the obvious when obsessed with what happened last time. I don't think Trump can pull off a repeat of 2016. He is a known factor now. Biden is leading by 8 points in the polls, and that seems to be increasing slowly.

I tbink we can believe the polls* and that Trump 2020 will compare to 2016 as Corbyn 2019 did to 2017, with abject defeat. Indeed it probably needs to be a landslide to prevent the result being challenged.

* 3 months for these to change of course...

I 100% agree and will go one step further.

Before the 2019 election I said that it needed to be a landslide for the sake of the country to say to the Labour Party that they had to change. That a continuity Corbyn "one more heave" candidate was not what was needed if they want to be taken seriously.

The same needs to happen in the United States of America. For the sake of the country Biden needs to win a landslide. The GOP needs to see clearly and unambiguously that Trump was a terrible, catastrophic mistake. The GOP needs a tremendous wake up call like Corbyn19, Foot83, Dukakis88 etc so that next primary season if a Trump-style candidate is running the voters look back at 2020 and say "never again".

Sometimes an election defeat has to hurt to make you think and realise what needs to be done next. That was 2019 election night for many Labourites. For those still voting GOP I want the result in November to hurt them.

So long as they don't follow Miliband15, I guess.

I know it's off topic and FPT but given that Boris is going to Scotland today it's worth emphasising the actual issue

Scott_xP said:

Dura_Ace said:

While this is Johnson's usual execrable nonsense; do not underestimate its potency. He is telling the English a story about themselves that they very much like.

Yes

That's the problem.

BoZo is trying to quell Scottish nationalism by playing the Little Englander.

This will not work out to his advantage.

https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/1286053426837819402

Boris has become a Bogeyman for leaving the EU, no matter what others think while Boris is in power any referendum is going to result in Scotland voting to leave..

logical_song said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Foxy said:

The "Anyone But Trump" vote will be a powerful motivator of enthusiasm.

Joe Biden has the advantage of being hard to see as a threat. He isn't a great candidate, but there isn't much that would frighten blue collar Americans.

Sometimes we miss the obvious when obsessed with what happened last time. I don't think Trump can pull off a repeat of 2016. He is a known factor now. Biden is leading by 8 points in the polls, and that seems to be increasing slowly.

I tbink we can believe the polls* and that Trump 2020 will compare to 2016 as Corbyn 2019 did to 2017, with abject defeat. Indeed it probably needs to be a landslide to prevent the result being challenged.

* 3 months for these to change of course...

I 100% agree and will go one step further.

Before the 2019 election I said that it needed to be a landslide for the sake of the country to say to the Labour Party that they had to change. That a continuity Corbyn "one more heave" candidate was not what was needed if they want to be taken seriously.

The same needs to happen in the United States of America. For the sake of the country Biden needs to win a landslide. The GOP needs to see clearly and unambiguously that Trump was a terrible, catastrophic mistake. The GOP needs a tremendous wake up call like Corbyn19, Foot83, Dukakis88 etc so that next primary season if a Trump-style candidate is running the voters look back at 2020 and say "never again".

Sometimes an election defeat has to hurt to make you think and realise what needs to be done next. That was 2019 election night for many Labourites. For those still voting GOP I want the result in November to hurt them.

I agree with most of that, but what was so bad about Dukakis?

Its a bit before my time but I thought he was perceived as (for America) very, very weak on crime and defence. EG Willie Horton etc - Future Democrats like Clinton certainly learnt lessons from Dukakis's defeat.

I wonder whether Boris is going to Scotland to win over the Scots, or to be able to say to the English "I tried".

In 2014 it was said that if the Scots voted Yes then Cameron would have to resign, unless he wants to I personally don't think that's the case for Boris if the Scots vote Yes in 2022. The Scots clearly had issues with the union before Boris.

Nobody in the EU resigned when we voted to leave.

Philip_Thompson said:

I wonder whether Boris is going to Scotland to win over the Scots, or to be able to say to the English "I tried".

In 2014 it was said that if the Scots voted Yes then Cameron would have to resign, unless he wants to I personally don't think that's the case for Boris if the Scots vote Yes in 2022. The Scots clearly had issues with the union before Boris.

Nobody in the EU resigned when we voted to leave.

If Boris quit now he will have taken the UK out the the EU - whether that's a good or bad thing will be one for historians to decide.
Equally he would have lead the UK through one of the toughest times since WW2 and whatever argument people want to make we at least don't have the Mafia acting as the only social support network (see Southern Italy for what I mean). So the end result may be good or bad
If Scotland left, Boris won't be remembered for the above he would just be remembered for Scotland leaving.

So thinking about it I can really see Boris leaving early next year, legacy complete...

Philip_Thompson said:

Foxy said:

The "Anyone But Trump" vote will be a powerful motivator of enthusiasm.

Joe Biden has the advantage of being hard to see as a threat. He isn't a great candidate, but there isn't much that would frighten blue collar Americans.

Sometimes we miss the obvious when obsessed with what happened last time. I don't think Trump can pull off a repeat of 2016. He is a known factor now. Biden is leading by 8 points in the polls, and that seems to be increasing slowly.

I tbink we can believe the polls* and that Trump 2020 will compare to 2016 as Corbyn 2019 did to 2017, with abject defeat. Indeed it probably needs to be a landslide to prevent the result being challenged.

* 3 months for these to change of course...

I 100% agree and will go one step further.

Before the 2019 election I said that it needed to be a landslide for the sake of the country to say to the Labour Party that they had to change. That a continuity Corbyn "one more heave" candidate was not what was needed if they want to be taken seriously.

The same needs to happen in the United States of America. For the sake of the country Biden needs to win a landslide. The GOP needs to see clearly and unambiguously that Trump was a terrible, catastrophic mistake. The GOP needs a tremendous wake up call like Corbyn19, Foot83, Dukakis88 etc so that next primary season if a Trump-style candidate is running the voters look back at 2020 and say "never again".

Sometimes an election defeat has to hurt to make you think and realise what needs to be done next. That was 2019 election night for many Labourites. For those still voting GOP I want the result in November to hurt them.

Don’t forget Major1997.

NickPalmer said:

edmundintokyo said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

Enthusiasm doesn't increase the weight of your vote, though.

It kind of does, in that it increases the probability that you'll cast it.

I hate to say it, but maybe there's a streak in humanity that makes dislike more of a motivator than enthusiasm, just as bad news sells media better than good news?

But you can't vote against someone, it has to be for someone, and if dislike is the only motivation then the vote is unfocussed.

StuartDickson said:

eek said:

Philip_Thompson said:

I wonder whether Boris is going to Scotland to win over the Scots, or to be able to say to the English "I tried".

In 2014 it was said that if the Scots voted Yes then Cameron would have to resign, unless he wants to I personally don't think that's the case for Boris if the Scots vote Yes in 2022. The Scots clearly had issues with the union before Boris.

Nobody in the EU resigned when we voted to leave.

If Boris quit now he will have taken the UK out the the EU - whether that's a good or bad thing will be one for historians to decide.
Equally he would have lead the UK through one of the toughest times since WW2 and whatever argument people want to make we at least don't have the Mafia acting as the only social support network (see Southern Italy for what I mean). So the end result may be good or bad
If Scotland left, Boris won't be remembered for the above he would just be remembered for Scotland leaving.

So thinking about it I can really see Boris leaving early next year, legacy complete...

You are forgetting his ego: he seriously thinks of himself as the new Churchill.

Well, as the man himself admitted: “There is a forgotten, nay almost forbidden word, which means more to me than any other. That word is England.”

Johnson seems to have adopted Churchill’s supreme word as his guiding star. He clearly cares for little else.

I don't think I'm forgetting his ego which is why I'm going for early 2021 rather than 2020 - we formally leave the EU, he gets to say job done and goes back to making money.

Remember he still isn't 100% due to Covid so has an excuse to escape early that wasn't there earlier.

Fysics_Teacher said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Foxy said:

The "Anyone But Trump" vote will be a powerful motivator of enthusiasm.

Joe Biden has the advantage of being hard to see as a threat. He isn't a great candidate, but there isn't much that would frighten blue collar Americans.

Sometimes we miss the obvious when obsessed with what happened last time. I don't think Trump can pull off a repeat of 2016. He is a known factor now. Biden is leading by 8 points in the polls, and that seems to be increasing slowly.

I tbink we can believe the polls* and that Trump 2020 will compare to 2016 as Corbyn 2019 did to 2017, with abject defeat. Indeed it probably needs to be a landslide to prevent the result being challenged.

* 3 months for these to change of course...

I 100% agree and will go one step further.

Before the 2019 election I said that it needed to be a landslide for the sake of the country to say to the Labour Party that they had to change. That a continuity Corbyn "one more heave" candidate was not what was needed if they want to be taken seriously.

The same needs to happen in the United States of America. For the sake of the country Biden needs to win a landslide. The GOP needs to see clearly and unambiguously that Trump was a terrible, catastrophic mistake. The GOP needs a tremendous wake up call like Corbyn19, Foot83, Dukakis88 etc so that next primary season if a Trump-style candidate is running the voters look back at 2020 and say "never again".

Sometimes an election defeat has to hurt to make you think and realise what needs to be done next. That was 2019 election night for many Labourites. For those still voting GOP I want the result in November to hurt them.

Don’t forget Major1997.

I didn't include Major in my list because I'm not entirely convinced that lessons were learnt in the 1997 defeat.

Lessons learnt:
Foot83: Don't be so extreme far left, expel Militant Tendency
Dukakis88: Take Laura Norder seriously.
Corbyn19: Deal with the antisemites . . . waiting to see if any more lessons are learnt.

But for Major the response by the Tories seemed to be basically "oh well, we had a good run for 18 years and Blair is very popular, lets just wait until Blair isn't as popular and then we can naturally return to government". If there was much in the way of introspection and lesson learning in the Hague years I'm not sure what it was - I never saw it! It took until Cameron came around for that to seriously happen.

https://twitter.com/JournoStephen/status/1286201469063110657

NerysHughes said:

Jonathan said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Foxy said:

The "Anyone But Trump" vote will be a powerful motivator of enthusiasm.

Joe Biden has the advantage of being hard to see as a threat. He isn't a great candidate, but there isn't much that would frighten blue collar Americans.

Sometimes we miss the obvious when obsessed with what happened last time. I don't think Trump can pull off a repeat of 2016. He is a known factor now. Biden is leading by 8 points in the polls, and that seems to be increasing slowly.

I tbink we can believe the polls* and that Trump 2020 will compare to 2016 as Corbyn 2019 did to 2017, with abject defeat. Indeed it probably needs to be a landslide to prevent the result being challenged.

* 3 months for these to change of course...

I 100% agree and will go one step further.

Before the 2019 election I said that it needed to be a landslide for the sake of the country to say to the Labour Party that they had to change. That a continuity Corbyn "one more heave" candidate was not what was needed if they want to be taken seriously.

The same needs to happen in the United States of America. For the sake of the country Biden needs to win a landslide. The GOP needs to see clearly and unambiguously that Trump was a terrible, catastrophic mistake. The GOP needs a tremendous wake up call like Corbyn19, Foot83, Dukakis88 etc so that next primary season if a Trump-style candidate is running the voters look back at 2020 and say "never again".

Sometimes an election defeat has to hurt to make you think and realise what needs to be done next. That was 2019 election night for many Labourites. For those still voting GOP I want the result in November to hurt them.

The interesting question is how will the electorate signal to the Tories that they need to change after the debacle of this administration.

By the comments on here you would think that the tories were miles behind in the polls rather than 6-10 points clear.

The Tories remain popular, that doesn't necessarily mean by most other metrics they are succeeding.

You would say (I probably wouldn't, certainly in 2001) that the Labour government were failing in 2001 and 2005, but they still won.

eek said:

geoffw said:

NickPalmer said:

edmundintokyo said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

Enthusiasm doesn't increase the weight of your vote, though.

It kind of does, in that it increases the probability that you'll cast it.

I hate to say it, but maybe there's a streak in humanity that makes dislike more of a motivator than enthusiasm, just as bad news sells media better than good news?

But you can't vote against someone, it has to be for someone, and if dislike is the only motivation then the vote is unfocussed.

As I've commented on here before most people vote for the least worst candidate

What's the difference between the least worst and the best on offer?

Philip_Thompson said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Foxy said:

The "Anyone But Trump" vote will be a powerful motivator of enthusiasm.

Joe Biden has the advantage of being hard to see as a threat. He isn't a great candidate, but there isn't much that would frighten blue collar Americans.

Sometimes we miss the obvious when obsessed with what happened last time. I don't think Trump can pull off a repeat of 2016. He is a known factor now. Biden is leading by 8 points in the polls, and that seems to be increasing slowly.

I tbink we can believe the polls* and that Trump 2020 will compare to 2016 as Corbyn 2019 did to 2017, with abject defeat. Indeed it probably needs to be a landslide to prevent the result being challenged.

* 3 months for these to change of course...

I 100% agree and will go one step further.

Before the 2019 election I said that it needed to be a landslide for the sake of the country to say to the Labour Party that they had to change. That a continuity Corbyn "one more heave" candidate was not what was needed if they want to be taken seriously.

The same needs to happen in the United States of America. For the sake of the country Biden needs to win a landslide. The GOP needs to see clearly and unambiguously that Trump was a terrible, catastrophic mistake. The GOP needs a tremendous wake up call like Corbyn19, Foot83, Dukakis88 etc so that next primary season if a Trump-style candidate is running the voters look back at 2020 and say "never again".

Sometimes an election defeat has to hurt to make you think and realise what needs to be done next. That was 2019 election night for many Labourites. For those still voting GOP I want the result in November to hurt them.

Don’t forget Major1997.

I didn't include Major in my list because I'm not entirely convinced that lessons were learnt in the 1997 defeat.

Lessons learnt:
Foot83: Don't be so extreme far left, expel Militant Tendency
Dukakis88: Take Laura Norder seriously.
Corbyn19: Deal with the antisemites . . . waiting to see if any more lessons are learnt.

But for Major the response by the Tories seemed to be basically "oh well, we had a good run for 18 years and Blair is very popular, lets just wait until Blair isn't as popular and then we can naturally return to government". If there was much in the way of introspection and lesson learning in the Hague years I'm not sure what it was - I never saw it! It took until Cameron came around for that to seriously happen.

Fair point. Given who the Tories elected in 2001 I don’t think the party got it then either, but luckily for them the PCP were able to get rid of someone manifestly unfit for the job.

I wonder what would have happened if the PLP had had the same power in 2016?

ydoethur said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Foxy said:

The "Anyone But Trump" vote will be a powerful motivator of enthusiasm.

Joe Biden has the advantage of being hard to see as a threat. He isn't a great candidate, but there isn't much that would frighten blue collar Americans.

Sometimes we miss the obvious when obsessed with what happened last time. I don't think Trump can pull off a repeat of 2016. He is a known factor now. Biden is leading by 8 points in the polls, and that seems to be increasing slowly.

I tbink we can believe the polls* and that Trump 2020 will compare to 2016 as Corbyn 2019 did to 2017, with abject defeat. Indeed it probably needs to be a landslide to prevent the result being challenged.

* 3 months for these to change of course...

I 100% agree and will go one step further.

Before the 2019 election I said that it needed to be a landslide for the sake of the country to say to the Labour Party that they had to change. That a continuity Corbyn "one more heave" candidate was not what was needed if they want to be taken seriously.

The same needs to happen in the United States of America. For the sake of the country Biden needs to win a landslide. The GOP needs to see clearly and unambiguously that Trump was a terrible, catastrophic mistake. The GOP needs a tremendous wake up call like Corbyn19, Foot83, Dukakis88 etc so that next primary season if a Trump-style candidate is running the voters look back at 2020 and say "never again".

Sometimes an election defeat has to hurt to make you think and realise what needs to be done next. That was 2019 election night for many Labourites. For those still voting GOP I want the result in November to hurt them.

The only snag with that logic is that Trump won once. When a winner turns into a loser, the instinctive reaction of fanatics is to double down. In our case, see 83, 01, 19 (to a lesser extent). In America 1972 springs to mind.

I can foresee a Trump on speed candidate in 2024 if he loses, and that’s the one that needs a brutal pounding.

If he narrowly loses then I can see a doubling down yes. Though how you double down on Trump is beyond me. In all the example you made the party either narrowly lost, or didn't lose by a greater extent compared to the previous time. I can't think of a doubling down when the prior defeat was a landslide swing away from the party.

That is why I don't want a narrow Trump victory, I would like a landslide of epic proportions. Getting rid of Trump even if it is by 1 electoral vote is good - getting rid of Trumpism is even better.

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/JournoStephen/status/1286201469063110657

I don't think so. Brexit will define Johnson. The history books will tell future generations that the Union fell at the time when one of Johnson's successors was Prime Minister. Johnson will be the footnote explaining that he set the stone rolling, which will be grossly unfair for his successor.

There's nothing wrong with Scottish independence as an idea, if you believe in democracy. If that's what people in Scotland want, fine. If they don't, that's also fine. Why this obsession with trying to blame people for what might happen in the future as far as this subject is concerned? "Scottish independence would be Boris Johnson's fault" is the sort of silly statement I'm talking about.

kle4 said:

What a devastating tweet - indy supporter says existence of PM proves why indy is needed.

It's the same argument as Brexit

Brexiteer says existence of Brussels proves why Brexit is needed.

It's unmitigated shite whichever petty nationalist is spouting it, but the point is it works. In both cases.

Scott_xP said:

kle4 said:

What a devastating tweet - indy supporter says existence of PM proves why indy is needed.

It's the same argument as Brexit

Brexiteer says existence of Brussels proves why Brexit is needed.

It's unmitigated shite whichever petty nationalist is spouting it, but the point is it works. In both cases.

Fair point. Not necessarily the strength of the point, but that very basic points like that can be very effective. I had thought you were impressed by her comment.

Scott_xP said:

kle4 said:

What a devastating tweet - indy supporter says existence of PM proves why indy is needed.

It's the same argument as Brexit

Brexiteer says existence of Brussels proves why Brexit is needed.

It's unmitigated shite whichever petty nationalist is spouting it, but the point is it works. In both cases.

Nationalism is neither petty nor nonsense.

Nationalism is a very good thing, but like all good things is bad if taken to extremes.

Mexicanpete said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Foxy said:

The "Anyone But Trump" vote will be a powerful motivator of enthusiasm.

Joe Biden has the advantage of being hard to see as a threat. He isn't a great candidate, but there isn't much that would frighten blue collar Americans.

Sometimes we miss the obvious when obsessed with what happened last time. I don't think Trump can pull off a repeat of 2016. He is a known factor now. Biden is leading by 8 points in the polls, and that seems to be increasing slowly.

I tbink we can believe the polls* and that Trump 2020 will compare to 2016 as Corbyn 2019 did to 2017, with abject defeat. Indeed it probably needs to be a landslide to prevent the result being challenged.

* 3 months for these to change of course...

I 100% agree and will go one step further.

Before the 2019 election I said that it needed to be a landslide for the sake of the country to say to the Labour Party that they had to change. That a continuity Corbyn "one more heave" candidate was not what was needed if they want to be taken seriously.

The same needs to happen in the United States of America. For the sake of the country Biden needs to win a landslide. The GOP needs to see clearly and unambiguously that Trump was a terrible, catastrophic mistake. The GOP needs a tremendous wake up call like Corbyn19, Foot83, Dukakis88 etc so that next primary season if a Trump-style candidate is running the voters look back at 2020 and say "never again".

Sometimes an election defeat has to hurt to make you think and realise what needs to be done next. That was 2019 election night for many Labourites. For those still voting GOP I want the result in November to hurt them.

Don’t forget Major1997.

I didn't include Major in my list because I'm not entirely convinced that lessons were learnt in the 1997 defeat.

Lessons learnt:
Foot83: Don't be so extreme far left, expel Militant Tendency
Dukakis88: Take Laura Norder seriously.
Corbyn19: Deal with the antisemites . . . waiting to see if any more lessons are learnt.

But for Major the response by the Tories seemed to be basically "oh well, we had a good run for 18 years and Blair is very popular, lets just wait until Blair isn't as popular and then we can naturally return to government". If there was much in the way of introspection and lesson learning in the Hague years I'm not sure what it was - I never saw it! It took until Cameron came around for that to seriously happen.

Now that worries me.

Cameron's solution was to morph into Blair. We don't want any Labour leader morphing into Johnson!

You dont think Starmer might put on a few pounds, mess up his hair and...no, he will never mess up his hair, it's true.

geoffw said:

NickPalmer said:

edmundintokyo said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

Enthusiasm doesn't increase the weight of your vote, though.

It kind of does, in that it increases the probability that you'll cast it.

I hate to say it, but maybe there's a streak in humanity that makes dislike more of a motivator than enthusiasm, just as bad news sells media better than good news?

But you can't vote against someone, it has to be for someone, and if dislike is the only motivation then the vote is unfocussed.

With the risk of reopening the FPTP and R debate from last night, that's a key charm of FPTP to the Big Two. If you have a system that pushes a duopoly, then negative campaigning can and does work. You don't have to be attractive; just convince the electorate that your opponent is repulsive (or more repulsive than you).

Philip_Thompson said:

Mexicanpete said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Foxy said:

The "Anyone But Trump" vote will be a powerful motivator of enthusiasm.

Joe Biden has the advantage of being hard to see as a threat. He isn't a great candidate, but there isn't much that would frighten blue collar Americans.

Sometimes we miss the obvious when obsessed with what happened last time. I don't think Trump can pull off a repeat of 2016. He is a known factor now. Biden is leading by 8 points in the polls, and that seems to be increasing slowly.

I tbink we can believe the polls* and that Trump 2020 will compare to 2016 as Corbyn 2019 did to 2017, with abject defeat. Indeed it probably needs to be a landslide to prevent the result being challenged.

* 3 months for these to change of course...

I 100% agree and will go one step further.

Before the 2019 election I said that it needed to be a landslide for the sake of the country to say to the Labour Party that they had to change. That a continuity Corbyn "one more heave" candidate was not what was needed if they want to be taken seriously.

The same needs to happen in the United States of America. For the sake of the country Biden needs to win a landslide. The GOP needs to see clearly and unambiguously that Trump was a terrible, catastrophic mistake. The GOP needs a tremendous wake up call like Corbyn19, Foot83, Dukakis88 etc so that next primary season if a Trump-style candidate is running the voters look back at 2020 and say "never again".

Sometimes an election defeat has to hurt to make you think and realise what needs to be done next. That was 2019 election night for many Labourites. For those still voting GOP I want the result in November to hurt them.

Don’t forget Major1997.

I didn't include Major in my list because I'm not entirely convinced that lessons were learnt in the 1997 defeat.

Lessons learnt:
Foot83: Don't be so extreme far left, expel Militant Tendency
Dukakis88: Take Laura Norder seriously.
Corbyn19: Deal with the antisemites . . . waiting to see if any more lessons are learnt.

But for Major the response by the Tories seemed to be basically "oh well, we had a good run for 18 years and Blair is very popular, lets just wait until Blair isn't as popular and then we can naturally return to government". If there was much in the way of introspection and lesson learning in the Hague years I'm not sure what it was - I never saw it! It took until Cameron came around for that to seriously happen.

Now that worries me.

Cameron's solution was to morph into Blair. We don't want any Labour leader morphing into Johnson!

The Conservatives succeeded when they stopped hating Blair and instead decided to think what were his best bits that suited them that they could adopt.

Maybe Labour needs to stop hating Johnson and think what about him they can actually like and adopt? 😜

Populist dog whistles?

kle4 said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/1286191258801766401

What a devastating tweet - indy supporter says existence of PM proves why indy is needed.

It makes the point she wishes to make and scores another minor hit.

And Sturgeon really only needs minor hits as it's a long term game where every point scored may slightly sway another vote...

Scott_xP said:

FFS, BoZo really did call the Union a "marriage" in his column today.

So, it's over then...

It's the children (precise number tbc) that I worry about.

https://twitter.com/pkelso/status/1286213260723793920

Scott_xP said:

BoZo really doesn't want to be the PM that "lost" Scotland, but he is working hard to make it happen.

Boris will be the culprit but he won't be at the scene of the crime; it'll be part of his poisonous legacy.

https://twitter.com/BBCPhilipSim/status/1286215046729805825

Scott_xP said:

Yeah, this will totally kill the Russian interference story...

https://twitter.com/estwebber/status/1286205388854104064

It is a valid point. Citizens should not be discriminated on the basis of their origin or their ancestors origin.

The solution to the problem is limiting the size of the donation so that it can't be argued to be a bribe or requiring a favour.

This probably needs a number put against it and a valuation method for gifts, although when I first started work we were told common sense applied given the example of a distillery giving you a bottle of whiskey was fine but a car manufacturer giving you a car was a bribe.

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1286195838688137217

He was right to say that too and it is all Tony Blair's fault. When the Prime Minister of the UK is also quintessentially the First Minister of England too then having a Scottish PM is not going to be popular. It wasn't and Brown was devastated in the election - and look at how Scotland played out in 2015 too.

Asymmetric devolution was utterly absurd. That Labour let Blair get away with it is insane. When Scotland goes independent (and I do now think it is when not if) then the fault lies squarely with Tony Blair.

If there had been an English Parliament created in 1997 then much of what has caused resentment on both sides could have been avoided. And if he wasn't prepared to create an English Parliament he shouldn't have created a Scottish one.

Mexicanpete said:

IanB2 said:

Scott_xP said:

BoZo really doesn't want to be the PM that "lost" Scotland, but he is working hard to make it happen.

Boris will be the culprit but he won't be at the scene of the crime; it'll be part of his poisonous legacy.

Indeed.

I’ve made this point to @HYUFD before. Boris (and the Conservative Party) does not want to be the “Prime Minister who lost the union” but even if it happens under a subsequent Starmer government, I reckon that the history books would place the blame at The Conservatives 2015-2024.

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1286195838688137217

Wow. That's special even for Boris.

Philip_Thompson said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1286195838688137217

He was right to say that too and it is all Tony Blair's fault. When the Prime Minister of the UK is also quintessentially the First Minister of England too then having a Scottish PM is not going to be popular. It wasn't and Brown was devastated in the election - and look at how Scotland played out in 2015 too.

Asymmetric devolution was utterly absurd. That Labour let Blair get away with it is insane. When Scotland goes independent (and I do now think it is when not if) then the fault lies squarely with Tony Blair.

If there had been an English Parliament created in 1997 then much of what has caused resentment on both sides could have been avoided. And if he wasn't prepared to create an English Parliament he shouldn't have created a Scottish one.

The then famous “West Lothian Question”, asked many times but never given a satisfactory answer.

rkrkrk said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1286195838688137217

Wow. That's special even for Boris.

You don't see any issues under asymmetric devolution with having Scottish health and education being decided by those elected in Scotland . . . and English health and education being decided by those elected in Scotland?

Philip_Thompson said:

rkrkrk said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1286195838688137217

Wow. That's special even for Boris.

You don't see any issues under asymmetric devolution with having Scottish health and education being decided by those elected in Scotland . . . and English health and education being decided by those elected in Scotland?

I’ve always supported the UK being a proper federation.

Philip_Thompson said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

kle4 said:

Mexicanpete said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Foxy said:

The "Anyone But Trump" vote will be a powerful motivator of enthusiasm.

Joe Biden has the advantage of being hard to see as a threat. He isn't a great candidate, but there isn't much that would frighten blue collar Americans.

Sometimes we miss the obvious when obsessed with what happened last time. I don't think Trump can pull off a repeat of 2016. He is a known factor now. Biden is leading by 8 points in the polls, and that seems to be increasing slowly.

I tbink we can believe the polls* and that Trump 2020 will compare to 2016 as Corbyn 2019 did to 2017, with abject defeat. Indeed it probably needs to be a landslide to prevent the result being challenged.

* 3 months for these to change of course...

I 100% agree and will go one step further.

Before the 2019 election I said that it needed to be a landslide for the sake of the country to say to the Labour Party that they had to change. That a continuity Corbyn "one more heave" candidate was not what was needed if they want to be taken seriously.

The same needs to happen in the United States of America. For the sake of the country Biden needs to win a landslide. The GOP needs to see clearly and unambiguously that Trump was a terrible, catastrophic mistake. The GOP needs a tremendous wake up call like Corbyn19, Foot83, Dukakis88 etc so that next primary season if a Trump-style candidate is running the voters look back at 2020 and say "never again".

Sometimes an election defeat has to hurt to make you think and realise what needs to be done next. That was 2019 election night for many Labourites. For those still voting GOP I want the result in November to hurt them.

Don’t forget Major1997.

I didn't include Major in my list because I'm not entirely convinced that lessons were learnt in the 1997 defeat.

Lessons learnt:
Foot83: Don't be so extreme far left, expel Militant Tendency
Dukakis88: Take Laura Norder seriously.
Corbyn19: Deal with the antisemites . . . waiting to see if any more lessons are learnt.

But for Major the response by the Tories seemed to be basically "oh well, we had a good run for 18 years and Blair is very popular, lets just wait until Blair isn't as popular and then we can naturally return to government". If there was much in the way of introspection and lesson learning in the Hague years I'm not sure what it was - I never saw it! It took until Cameron came around for that to seriously happen.

Now that worries me.

Cameron's solution was to morph into Blair. We don't want any Labour leader morphing into Johnson!

You dont think Starmer might put on a few pounds, mess up his hair and...no, he will never mess up his hair, it's true.

You have it the wrong way round. It is not that SKS needs to emulate Boris but that just as Cameron won by following Blair, so Boris won by morphing into Jeremy Corbyn.

Boris won by lifting all the popular parts of Corbyn's 2017 platform (including shooting rather than hunting foxes!).

Labour's top 5 issues according to the Guardian in 2017: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/16/labour-manifesto-analysis-key-points-pledges

Increase Income Tax at the top
Increase Company taxes
Tax the City
Water industry nationalistation
Fund Public Ownership

Which of them did Boris adopt?

Have you forgotten the Cabinet call-and-response?
20,000 new police officers (not by coincidence, the number May and Cameron cut).
40 new hospitals.
50,000 new nurses.

Not to mention an end to austerity. Or increased investment in schools, railways, buses (why do you think Corbyn kept asking about them at PMQs?), public services and infrastructure (including broadband!!).

kinabalu said:

On topic. Yes, it's going to be a Silent Majority election and the "SM" have had enough of President Trump. He needs to become a different person for the next 3 months. Bank his base and attempt to convince others that contrary to the evidence of the last 4 years he is not such a dick after all. It will not be easy but he ought to at least try. It's only chance.

Just as Biden has been around long enough for people to know him, I think the same is true now of Trump. He can't change.

Mexicanpete said:

Gallowgate said:

Mexicanpete said:

IanB2 said:

Scott_xP said:

BoZo really doesn't want to be the PM that "lost" Scotland, but he is working hard to make it happen.

Boris will be the culprit but he won't be at the scene of the crime; it'll be part of his poisonous legacy.

Indeed.

I’ve made this point to @HYUFD before. Boris (and the Conservative Party) does not want to be the “Prime Minister who lost the union” but even if it happens under a subsequent Starmer government, I reckon that the history books would place the blame at The Conservatives 2015-2024.

The issue you have with that idea is Conservative commentators like HYUFD can claim with some justification that the headline says it wasn't Johnson who lost the Union. It doesn't even have to be a non-Conservative. It could be a Sunak Government from 2024 buckling under the pressure for SIndyref2. One will have to read further to pick out Johnson's role, and it's the headline that matters.

Without looking it up, how many here could name the PM that lost (most of) Ireland?

Mexicanpete said:

Gallowgate said:

Mexicanpete said:

IanB2 said:

Scott_xP said:

BoZo really doesn't want to be the PM that "lost" Scotland, but he is working hard to make it happen.

Boris will be the culprit but he won't be at the scene of the crime; it'll be part of his poisonous legacy.

Indeed.

I’ve made this point to @HYUFD before. Boris (and the Conservative Party) does not want to be the “Prime Minister who lost the union” but even if it happens under a subsequent Starmer government, I reckon that the history books would place the blame at The Conservatives 2015-2024.

The issue you have with that idea is Conservative commentators like HYUFD can claim with some justification that the headline says it wasn't Johnson who lost the Union. It doesn't even have to be a non-Conservative. It could be a Sunak Government from 2024 buckling under the pressure for SIndyref2. One will have to read further to pick out Johnson's role, and it's the headline that matters.

Which why as I said earlier today I suspect Boris will be gone in 2021, with Brexit done before the manure hits the fan....

LostPassword said:

rottenborough said:

Trump sending a surge of "federal agents" to cities across US.

What's the betting these paramilitaries are enforcing "law and order" around polling stations come November?

Yup. Democrats need to worry less about Trump not accepting defeat and more about him doing whatever he can - however violent and illegal - to prevent that defeat.

Trump will not allow a free and fair election. Too much is at stake.

My fear is that Democrats are not mentally prepared for this. They still do not get who they are dealing with. They will affect surprise and outrage, but it will be too late.

And they will take some comfort in calling Trump voters stupid and bemoaning that their candidate was old and boring so that they can avoid the reality that their election was stolen.

Trump might try but the swing states now mostly have Dem governors, and even some of the GOP ones (like Kasich) are for Biden. If it comes down to a non-metaphorical ground war between the Department of Homeland Security and the states Trump is going to find himself heavily outnumbered; Outside the military the federal government just doesn't have that many guys.

* PS Anyone who creates a thing called "Department of Homeland Security" has no right to be surprised when it's used in an attempted fascist coup d'état.

Edit: Forgot Kasich isn't governor any more