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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trump voters maybe far more enthusiastic about their man than Biden ones but that is only part of the story
The above chart is from an interesting analysis from Nate Silver’s 538 site on the so-called enthusiasm gap between supporters for the President and his Democratic opponent. This is based on polling that those planning to vote for Trump on November 2nd are twice as likely to say they are enthusiastic about their choice than Biden backers.
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Enthusiasm doesn't increase the weight of your vote, though.
Joe Biden has the advantage of being hard to see as a threat. He isn't a great candidate, but there isn't much that would frighten blue collar Americans.
Sometimes we miss the obvious when obsessed with what happened last time. I don't think Trump can pull off a repeat of 2016. He is a known factor now. Biden is leading by 8 points in the polls, and that seems to be increasing slowly.
I tbink we can believe the polls* and that Trump 2020 will compare to 2016 as Corbyn 2019 did to 2017, with abject defeat. Indeed it probably needs to be a landslide to prevent the result being challenged.
* 3 months for these to change of course...
Before the 2019 election I said that it needed to be a landslide for the sake of the country to say to the Labour Party that they had to change. That a continuity Corbyn "one more heave" candidate was not what was needed if they want to be taken seriously.
The same needs to happen in the United States of America. For the sake of the country Biden needs to win a landslide. The GOP needs to see clearly and unambiguously that Trump was a terrible, catastrophic mistake. The GOP needs a tremendous wake up call like Corbyn19, Foot83, Dukakis88 etc so that next primary season if a Trump-style candidate is running the voters look back at 2020 and say "never again".
Sometimes an election defeat has to hurt to make you think and realise what needs to be done next. That was 2019 election night for many Labourites. For those still voting GOP I want the result in November to hurt them.
A lot of people were enthusiastic to defeat his opponent.
But equally a lot of people were enthusiastically pro-Boris.
Boris has a lot of fans.
Johnson is addressing the wrong audience in the wrong country.
But he is a known candidate. Biden has been in public life since forever.
Hopefully the flight to safety will push him well over the line.
What's the betting these paramilitaries are enforcing "law and order" around polling stations come November?
In 2014 it was said that if the Scots voted Yes then Cameron would have to resign, unless he wants to I personally don't think that's the case for Boris if the Scots vote Yes in 2022. The Scots clearly had issues with the union before Boris.
Nobody in the EU resigned when we voted to leave.
Incidentally, Johnson is not considered a Bogeyman for leaving the EU. Not by Scots anyway. He is considered to be a buffoon, a charlatan and a cad. And with good reason: because he is.
If he is meant to be achieving the former, then he has been receiving horrifically poor advice.
- If there is one word which sums up Mr Johnson’s response to the crisis it is “slow”
... Scotland is to be love bombed by Downing Street, with ministers encouraged to follow the PM north to talk up the benefits of the Union, particularly in the current crisis.
This, Mr Johnson believes, will tackle increasing support for independence in the polls and drive it downwards, just in time for the next Scottish Parliament elections. That is the theory, in any case.
... Scotland’s problem with the Conservatives has nothing to do with not understanding them. It is that we understand them only too well.
(£) The Herald
Equally he would have lead the UK through one of the toughest times since WW2 and whatever argument people want to make we at least don't have the Mafia acting as the only social support network (see Southern Italy for what I mean). So the end result may be good or bad
If Scotland left, Boris won't be remembered for the above he would just be remembered for Scotland leaving.
So thinking about it I can really see Boris leaving early next year, legacy complete...
I can foresee a Trump on speed candidate in 2024 if he loses, and that’s the one that needs a brutal pounding.
Well, as the man himself admitted: “There is a forgotten, nay almost forbidden word, which means more to me than any other. That word is England.”
Johnson seems to have adopted Churchill’s supreme word as his guiding star. He clearly cares for little else.
And Boris defenders will say, but he doesn't believe in such things. I would remind them there was a time he didn't believe in Brexit.
Remember he still isn't 100% due to Covid so has an excuse to escape early that wasn't there earlier.
Lessons learnt:
Foot83: Don't be so extreme far left, expel Militant Tendency
Dukakis88: Take Laura Norder seriously.
Corbyn19: Deal with the antisemites . . . waiting to see if any more lessons are learnt.
But for Major the response by the Tories seemed to be basically "oh well, we had a good run for 18 years and Blair is very popular, lets just wait until Blair isn't as popular and then we can naturally return to government". If there was much in the way of introspection and lesson learning in the Hague years I'm not sure what it was - I never saw it! It took until Cameron came around for that to seriously happen.
That’s why I’m so pleased to see Sir Kier in charge of Labour; for that to happen the opposition has to be an at least plausible government.
I think @Philip_Thompson said yesterday that while he didn’t vote for him, he wasn’t frightened by the prospect of Ed being PM. We are now getting back to that position and if Sir Kier can use the EHRC report to get rid of a few of Jeremy’s fellow travellers, so much the better.
On topic, Hilary did frighten a lot of Americans who Joe does not.
You would say (I probably wouldn't, certainly in 2001) that the Labour government were failing in 2001 and 2005, but they still won.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-53484998
I wonder what would have happened if the PLP had had the same power in 2016?
Oh! You meant in England?
That is why I don't want a narrow Trump victory, I would like a landslide of epic proportions. Getting rid of Trump even if it is by 1 electoral vote is good - getting rid of Trumpism is even better.
So, it's over then...
Cameron's solution was to morph into Blair. We don't want any Labour leader morphing into Johnson!
Brexiteer says existence of Brussels proves why Brexit is needed.
It's unmitigated shite whichever petty nationalist is spouting it, but the point is it works. In both cases.
Maybe Labour needs to stop hating Johnson and think what about him they can actually like and adopt? 😜
Nationalism is a very good thing, but like all good things is bad if taken to extremes.
https://twitter.com/estwebber/status/1286205388854104064
It's tragic, but that's what happens when the Petty Nationalists are in power (in England and Scotland)
And Sturgeon really only needs minor hits as it's a long term game where every point scored may slightly sway another vote...
Boris won by lifting all the popular parts of Corbyn's 2017 platform (including shooting rather than hunting foxes!).
Increase Income Tax at the top
Increase Company taxes
Tax the City
Water industry nationalistation
Fund Public Ownership
Which of them did Boris adopt?
The solution to the problem is limiting the size of the donation so that it can't be argued to be a bribe or requiring a favour.
This probably needs a number put against it and a valuation method for gifts, although when I first started work we were told common sense applied given the example of a distillery giving you a bottle of whiskey was fine but a car manufacturer giving you a car was a bribe.
He was right to say that too and it is all Tony Blair's fault. When the Prime Minister of the UK is also quintessentially the First Minister of England too then having a Scottish PM is not going to be popular. It wasn't and Brown was devastated in the election - and look at how Scotland played out in 2015 too.
Asymmetric devolution was utterly absurd. That Labour let Blair get away with it is insane. When Scotland goes independent (and I do now think it is when not if) then the fault lies squarely with Tony Blair.
If there had been an English Parliament created in 1997 then much of what has caused resentment on both sides could have been avoided. And if he wasn't prepared to create an English Parliament he shouldn't have created a Scottish one.
Trump will not allow a free and fair election. Too much is at stake.
My fear is that Democrats are not mentally prepared for this. They still do not get who they are dealing with. They will affect surprise and outrage, but it will be too late.
And they will take some comfort in calling Trump voters stupid and bemoaning that their candidate was old and boring so that they can avoid the reality that their election was stolen.
20,000 new police officers (not by coincidence, the number May and Cameron cut).
40 new hospitals.
50,000 new nurses.
Not to mention an end to austerity. Or increased investment in schools, railways, buses (why do you think Corbyn kept asking about them at PMQs?), public services and infrastructure (including broadband!!).
I foresee some electoral difficulties for the SNP if they act to bring down a 2024 Starmer-led minority government on the grounds that Labour won't sanction another vote on secession.
So it was actually Tony Blair who took us out of the EU. QED
* PS Anyone who creates a thing called "Department of Homeland Security" has no right to be surprised when it's used in an attempted fascist coup d'état.
Edit: Forgot Kasich isn't governor any more
However, we're now creating regional and sub-regional groups, with Mayors. There's a suggestion of one in my former home area which I fear will result in a substantial amount of discontent, given there's one big and two or three much smaller players.