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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Welcome to Monday’s PB Nighthawks
Even if you have never posted on PB why not change that tonight and get involved. There is a lot going on and a lot to talk about.
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Sindy would destabilise the U.K. for a generation.
But isn’t it interesting the SNP’s leader got a TV show on Russia today while the leader of the Leave campaign didn’t
https://twitter.com/jdmanjohn/status/1285110770473279488?s=20
In any event, (a) nobody outside of the readership of the New European wants to go through another umpteen years of arguing over the EU, and (b) Scottish secession will be along before very much longer to deplete any remaining appetite amongst the English electorate for endless constitutional wrangling, as well as to tip the balance of power further against both pro-EU sentiment and the political forces that espouse it.
Grands projets have no attraction to a fed-up populace that wants nothing more than a bit of peace and quiet for a change.
Brexit on the other hand... well it's hardly been mentioned since the vote has it?
By the time it’s on the agenda again (possibly, as @Foxy suggests, in a decade), it might not be all that grand.
In other words free trade that is just free trade. Not all the other nonsense that came with it.
I don't see Canadians banging down the door to be admitted to the USA.
I'm currently 44. Even if we do end up back in the EU, I wouldn't expect it this side of my retirement.
I think we know the answer to that. Whichever Prime Minister is in charge when the country falls apart will probably be obliged to resign. That's all that's keeping the show on the road now.
The end of the Union would weaken both Scotland and England's presence in the world
Apart from that..
If things don't go as well for us as we might like, then we'll end up entering into an agreement that looks like Switzerland's, only with us probably paying rather more for it than they do. It'll be EEA (customised), with some restrictions on immigrants getting healthcare and benefits.
If things do go well, or the EU implodes (neither of which are impossible), then we won't.
I don't foresee any great likelihood we actually rejoin.
It has never been a problem for the EU to issue debt, the issue was the Eurozone issuing it.
Scots Guards
The Royal Regiment of Scotland
Common Travel Area (CTA)
4. The Immigration and Social Security Co-ordination (EU Withdrawal) Bill, which is currently before Parliament, clarifies the immigration status of Irish citizens and confirms there will be no change to their rights to freely enter, live and work in the UK without requiring permission. There will continue to be no routine immigration controls on journeys from within the CTA to the UK, with no immigration controls whatsoever on the Northern Ireland – Ireland land border. The Government will continue to work closely with CTA partners to facilitate legitimate travel within the CTA while tackling abuse of these arrangements.
“Irish nationals have a special status in UK law which is separate to and pre-dates the rights they have as EU citizens.
In short, the Republic of Ireland is not considered to be a ‘foreign country’ for the purpose of UK laws, and Irish citizens are not considered to be ‘aliens’. Furthermore, Irish citizens are treated as if they have permanent immigration permission to remain in the UK from the date they take up ‘ordinary residence’ here.”
If we go to WTO terms Brexit there will be tariffs on exports from the Republic to GB and I also think it likely there will ultimately be no free movement from the Republic to GB either in such circumstances.
All previous legislation is based on UK (including NI) and Republic relations, not GB and Republic relations as it would be to all intents and purposes if the transition period ends with no trade deal for the UK with the EU but NI still in the customs union and most of the single market unlike GB
Now I await to see how CNN spins this into an anti-Trump story.
I wouldn't have advised any remainer to do that, I wouldn't advise a Sindy supporter to do that when it looked less likely than it does now. As these things ultimately come down to emotion more than anything else, not cold assessment of national and supranational administrative arrangements which are, to a greater or lesser degree, ultimately artificial when you go far enough back anywhere. If enough people feel like things should be as they are, they will remain. If enough do not, it won't, and no arguments will change that.
So already that allows ad hoc immigration controls to be imposed on migrants from the Republic of Ireland to mainland GB
Administration henchpeople have been attacking Dr Faucci for months, most notably & recently by Dr Peter Strangelove Navarro.
SO for ANY news organization from Mad Magazine down interpret MLB/NYY decision to invite Dr. Faucci as "an anti-Trump story" would appear fair comment.
But of course YOU said it first!
You can think all you like that it might change in the future (and it may), but what will be the impetus for a change? It be rather unpopular in the Republic, extremely unpopular in Northern Ireland, and it's hard to see it being a great vote winner in Great Britain.
https://www.cnn.com/2019/10/25/politics/trump-presidential-first-pitches/index.html
The Georgia Democratic State Central Committee today replaced the late US Rep. John Lewis on the November 4, 2020 general election ballot for US House in the state's 5th CD, with state senator and state Democratic party chair Nikema Williams.
Sen. Williams beat out 130 applicants, receiving 37 of 41 votes; she herself abstained. This fall, she faces Republican nominee, author and reality TV star Angela Stanton-King, pardoned by Trumpsky pardoned for auto theft.
GA CD5 is majority Black and heavily Democratic, so Nikema WIlliams is a good bet to succeed the late, great John Lewis in Congress.
The more it looks like EU migrants are trying to use the Republic as a backdoor the more those controls will have to be tightened further
https://services.parliament.uk/Bills/2019-21/immigrationandsocialsecuritycoordinationeuwithdrawal.html
Common Travel Area (CTA)
4. The Immigration and Social Security Co-ordination (EU Withdrawal) Bill, which is currently before Parliament, clarifies the immigration status of Irish citizens and confirms there will be no change to their rights to freely enter, live and work in the UK without requiring permission actually means?
The fact that it might be open to "abuse" from EU citizens taking the time to become Irish citizens so that they can enter the UK may be a consequential loophole, but some loopholes just can't be closed.
Thus is like the Hotel California - you can enter, but you can never leave.
The auto theft comment reminds me of an old joke I got to use once when an irritating little man was trying to sell me car insurance. He finished his pitch with a flourish, saying that the insurance included fire and theft. I responded saying that was great, but who would steal a burning car?
Think back fifty years.
We were not members of the EEC and nor was Ireland. We had the Common Travel Area with Ireland.
If you were a citizen of country with no visa requirements for Ireland (like the US) you could fly to Dublin and then drive into Northern Ireland, and probably get the ferry to the UK.
That loophole has always existed.
Here's the thing.
Being able to get into a country is not the same as being able to work and reside in a country. A Romanian could get a flight to Dublin (post Brexit), and then get a bus to Belfast and then come across by ferry to the UK. But why would he bother? He can come to the UK by waving their passport (there is after all no visa issue), and then ignore the residency rules. That's how we get Albanian car washers. They don't need the Northern Irish loophole.
However the Withdrawal Agreement does allow for ad hoc 'non routine' immigration controls from the Republic to GB which is not unfettered free movement
Albanians and Romanians can come here automatically to work now under free movement rules, once the transition period ends in December that will no longer be the case
Are you saying that
(1) The rights of Irish citizens to be treated as non-alien, as enshrined in various treaties and primary legislation going back to the 1920s, will be abolished?
or
(2) Because there may be occasional border checks, then the right of Irish people to live and work in the UK can no longer be described as "free movement".
or is it
(3) Something else completely.
1. Brexit does not change the CTA
2. The CTA allows the right for citizens within the CTA to live and work anywhere in the CTA. There is no GB exemption as you suggest
3. The Irish back door is well known and there is no solution to it outsode of the Conservative and Unionist Party imposing full border and customs checks inside the Union. The kind of thing the Prime Minister has repeatedly explicitly said he will not do.
As I keep pointing out, Free Movement will end to be replaced by movement that is free. I know that HYUFD is obsessed with what my neighbours think and will vote for, but his views on the whys and wherefores of red wall voters is about as fact based and relevant of my views on the whys and wherefores of gun owning anti-state paranoids in America.
https://twitter.com/vote_leave/status/724604686196678656
How would they benefit from going via Northern Ireland?
BTW, in recent years a movement has arisen in parts of current Commonwealth of Virginia outside the DC, Richmond & Norfolk metropolitan areas, to join with equally-conservative and GOP-voting West Virginia.
Name of this movement? Vexit!
Don't knock it, it might become an attractive option
That is, that they will come to the UK and work without permission.
They can do that by flying in, waving their passport at the immigration officer (or more likely using the machine), and then illegally working.
Why bother going via Ireland when you can just come in as a tourist and stay?
What you mean is that its not possible for EU migrants to use ROI as a back door to get to England. Which is what most Brexiteers means when they refer to UK / GB. As we have seen many of them have no idea that NI even exists never mind how it works. One of these clueless Brexiteers was even caught on camera telling a meeting of NI business people that there absolutely would not be a border down the Irish Sea...