politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Can Johnson raise the Tories’ game above Easy mode? Can Labour
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It is certainly ineffective. But my memory is that any possible downsides of Brexit were dismissed by the Leave side as Project Fear.Casino_Royale said:
She's right. All of that was made very clear. And people still voted for it.Scott_xP said:
It's a typical line of attack from a Remainer journalist, and an ineffective one.
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I think both of those statements are true, but I think the greatest danger comes from the disappointed he lied to.contrarian said:Johnson cannot be unseated from the left, I don;t think. His spending binges have defanged labour for the foreseeable.
Where he is vulnerable is if a revived Brexit party style party regains traction on the right.
The Leadsom clip is instructive. It's no good telling those people who lose their jobs that they voted for it.
Liz Truss waking up to the dangers is welcome, if belated. And if even she gets it, others can't be far behind...
BoZo owns Brexit, for good or ill. And there is no good.0 -
In what way ? a perfectly sensible precaution as is wearing them in the street if you can’t keep 2m apart.contrarian said:
The masks in shops thing is about to backfire spectacularly.Casino_Royale said:
Give her my best wishes, Cyclefree.Cyclefree said:OldKingCole said:Good morning ladies and gentlemen. Has summer returned?
Morning OKC.OldKingCole said:Interesting complaint in today's Guardian. Pubs which are primarily drinking places....... in other words, the sort which are, traditionally, 'at the heart off communities' are complaining that the VAT reductions, because they only apply to food and not to drink, discriminate in favour of the Wetherspoons of this world and against ye olde village hostelry.
Personally when I go my local pub; I go for a pint and a natter, and go somewhere else ...... home......for a meal.
Summer has started returning here in South Lakeland though we are not quite there yet. Last week was awful with rain and mist .
Anyway, Daughter has reopened pub and restaurant. She has made it look as nice as possible with redecoration, lots of lovely plants outside, 2 marquee areas with fairy lights and lots of lovely cushioned seating inside so that they have the look of a Moroccan-style gazebo.
Face visors for customer-facing staff and hand sanitizers etc but she’s avoided putting yellow strips everywhere so the inside looks welcoming and charming.
The first day was a nightmare - busy - and serving everyone at table slows everything down. Plus some of the locals were terrible at social distancing etc. A bit of a nightmare this: she wants locals to come in and enjoy themselves but equally she can not afford for them to break the guidance because if the virus is caught she has to close the pub down and reputationally it is a disaster.
Not all pubs have reopened. Some of those which have have taken a distinctly relaxed approach to the guidance. One even had recorded music on so loud that people were forced to shout to make themselves heard, which is bloody stupid and a risk.
Trade has been ok - tourists are coming in - and she earned some kudos with one lot on Tuesday when she does not normally do food by opening the kitchen for them as they had nowhere else to go. It’s not high summer-style busy but it’s ok so far. It needs to increase though to earn enough to see her through the autumn and winter. Takeaways are continuing and she’s focusing more and more on food to try and make up for the loss of the standing-at-the-bar trade.
The holiday lets are filling up. But hotels elsewhere are reporting very slow trade. It is very mixed. Not all the breweries have reopened fully either.
Very early days. Very stressful and tiring for her and she is very up and down in her mood and optimism. But she is giving it her best shot and she is learning in these last few weeks what most people pay a fortune to learn on an MBA course.
As to Sunak’s package: a mixed reception. Like most small places she’s on the fixed rate VAT scheme so the VAT cut means nothing and it does not help those pubs which do not do food. (She has assumed for a while that Tim Wetherspoon is the only publican who has Boris’s ear.) The £10 voucher is helpful but would ideally be best September to November, when trade is quiet. Most places around here are shut on a Monday. The £1000 grant per furloughed employee is very helpful. So she hopes to make it through to January.
What she needs now - in common with many others - is good weather, no more shocks, no second wave and no mixed messages from government Ministers.
It sounds like she's doing a fantastic job.0 -
This is very possible.Malmesbury said:
On the woke thing - I fully expect that the BBC will manage to "go woke" at the same time as producing a string of court cases for blatant, obvious discrimination.Casino_Royale said:
The more threatened and under siege it feels the more the BBC is retreating into its shell and comfort zone, and alienating those that might once have been its advocates - or at least neutral.Barnesian said:
Long term plan. The current Royal Charter for the BBC doesn't expire until 31 December 2027.Fysics_Teacher said:
In the current economic climate I’m not sure if there is enough advertising money around to finance the BBC as well as the others.Barnesian said:
I'd allow advertising. That is how ITV manages.Fysics_Teacher said:
Funding from general taxation would remove any independence the BBC currently enjoys. At least with the licence fee it is negotiated on a fairly long timescale.Wulfrun_Phil said:
You mean you hope the Government sticks to its guns, in allowing the BBC the licence (sorry!) to do that and giving them little alternative.CorrectHorseBattery said:I hope the BBC sticks to its guns and removes the license fee from over 70s. Utterly ridiculous it's free to them.
I wonder whether the Conservatives' stratospheric polling lead amongst the elderly can survive the bills hitting the doormats.
The licence fee is, in its new form, substantially worse than the poll tax ever was, and Labour should make the link. It's basically a flat rate household tax, without the reduction for small households in either the poll tax or council tax, and with an income-related discount applying to only a small proportion of only one age group, with disproportionately high administration costs. If ever there was a tax that Labour should abolish in favour of funding the same services by other sources of existing taxation, it is this one.
Better surely to go for a subscription model? That way you won’t get a government announcing a 50% cut to BBC funding to pay for an increase in NHS funding just after Panorama do an expose on government corruption.
It has no idea what to do and has an organisation and culture that seems impervious to change - except to go full Woke.
What it needs is phenomenal, inspired and determined leadership.
It won't get it.
They had some serious problems with bullying in the past too. I met an ex-BBC senior in a major infrastructure project I was worked on, who'd switched careers: she was haughty, rude and unpleasant to her underlings.
I was told this wasn't atypical at the BBC from which she originated.0 -
From various countries figures It's about 11 days from symptoms to ICU admission and then about 14 days from admission to death if you are going to die.Ratters said:Regarding the US elections, I note that the direction of travel of US deaths has turned over the last week (7 day average increasing). This follows a sharp rise in cases across a large number of states, including must-win states for Trump like Florida and Texas. Yet places are still mostly open/opening (Disneyland Florida opening this weekend) and mask wearing isn't good.
My initial conclusions are:
1) R will remain above 1 and cases will continue to rise until much more restrictive measures are brought in (e.g. closing bars not enough if everywhere else is open).
2) Hospitalisations and deaths will continue to rise until around 3 weeks after cases peak. Given the rate of increase in cases over the last month, I fear US deaths per day will soon rival their earlier peak (I'd guess by mid-August at the latest).
3) Eventually, this will force governors in the most affected states to impose new lockdowns or much tighter restrictions. Even a de facto lockdown (due to people being scared) will result in a fresh economic hit.
4) A second wave of deaths and job losses in the US, while Europe and east Asia has the virus still under relative control and have improving economies, will be disastrous for the GOP.
From a betting perspective, relative long-shot wins for the Democrats should offer value, particularly in the states most affected by this wave.
Treatment has improved since the beginning of the epidemic so you see about a quarter of hospital admission result in death so you need 4 times as many hospitalisation for the same death rate.
But, that ignores the effect of capacity. Although death rate is down hospitalisation rate is constant. There's about 2 weeks at current rates before hospitals are full.0 -
Pleased to read that Ms Cyclefree. Looks as though your daughter has cause for at least cautious optimism.Cyclefree said:OldKingCole said:Good morning ladies and gentlemen. Has summer returned?
Morning OKC.OldKingCole said:Interesting complaint in today's Guardian. Pubs which are primarily drinking places....... in other words, the sort which are, traditionally, 'at the heart off communities' are complaining that the VAT reductions, because they only apply to food and not to drink, discriminate in favour of the Wetherspoons of this world and against ye olde village hostelry.
Personally when I go my local pub; I go for a pint and a natter, and go somewhere else ...... home......for a meal.
Summer has started returning here in South Lakeland though we are not quite there yet. Last week was awful with rain and mist .
Anyway, Daughter has reopened pub and restaurant. She has made it look as nice as possible with redecoration, lots of lovely plants outside, 2 marquee areas with fairy lights and lots of lovely cushioned seating inside so that they have the look of a Moroccan-style gazebo.
Face visors for customer-facing staff and hand sanitizers etc but she’s avoided putting yellow strips everywhere so the inside looks welcoming and charming.
The first day was a nightmare - busy - and serving everyone at table slows everything down. Plus some of the locals were terrible at social distancing etc. A bit of a nightmare this: she wants locals to come in and enjoy themselves but equally she can not afford for them to break the guidance because if the virus is caught she has to close the pub down and reputationally it is a disaster.
Not all pubs have reopened. Some of those which have have taken a distinctly relaxed approach to the guidance. One even had recorded music on so loud that people were forced to shout to make themselves heard, which is bloody stupid and a risk.
Trade has been ok - tourists are coming in - and she earned some kudos with one lot on Tuesday when she does not normally do food by opening the kitchen for them as they had nowhere else to go. It’s not high summer-style busy but it’s ok so far. It needs to increase though to earn enough to see her through the autumn and winter. Takeaways are continuing and she’s focusing more and more on food to try and make up for the loss of the standing-at-the-bar trade.
The holiday lets are filling up. But hotels elsewhere are reporting very slow trade. It is very mixed. Not all the breweries have reopened fully either.
Very early days. Very stressful and tiring for her and she is very up and down in her mood and optimism. But she is giving it her best shot and she is learning in these last few weeks what most people pay a fortune to learn on an MBA course.
As to Sunak’s package: a mixed reception. Like most small places she’s on the fixed rate VAT scheme so the VAT cut means nothing and it does not help those pubs which do not do food. (She has assumed for a while that Tim Wetherspoon is the only publican who has Boris’s ear.) The £10 voucher is helpful but would ideally be best September to November, when trade is quiet. Most places around here are shut on a Monday. The £1000 grant per furloughed employee is very helpful. So she hopes to make it through to January.
What she needs now - in common with many others - is good weather, no more shocks, no second wave and no mixed messages from government Ministers.
It's many, many years since I had anything to do with fixed rate VAT schemes, and that was in pharmacy, not hospitality, but after examining it there I decided not to take 'advantage' of it, and to ensure to the best of my ability that staff used the zero rate till key when appropriate, so far as possible.0 -
F1: possible that qualifying will still run.0
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As I have argued on here before many time, the BBC should drop the licence fee and seek to compete on the open market as a subscriber-controlled, National Trust-style, organisation that is also able to raise money on the markets. With the brand equity it has, I suspect it would blow most of the competition out of the water - especially if it took control of its back catalogue and was able to decide on which platforms BBC programming appeared.2
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Radio 3, and its patronage of musicians and live events, is pretty much the only part of the BBC worth preservingCasino_Royale said:
The BBC need to just focus on making very good programmes.Malmesbury said:
The tragedy of the BBC was that they had a perfect opportunity.Barnesian said:
I'd allow advertising. That is how ITV manages.Fysics_Teacher said:
Funding from general taxation would remove any independence the BBC currently enjoys. At least with the licence fee it is negotiated on a fairly long timescale.Wulfrun_Phil said:
You mean you hope the Government sticks to its guns, in allowing the BBC the licence (sorry!) to do that and giving them little alternative.CorrectHorseBattery said:I hope the BBC sticks to its guns and removes the license fee from over 70s. Utterly ridiculous it's free to them.
I wonder whether the Conservatives' stratospheric polling lead amongst the elderly can survive the bills hitting the doormats.
The licence fee is, in its new form, substantially worse than the poll tax ever was, and Labour should make the link. It's basically a flat rate household tax, without the reduction for small households in either the poll tax or council tax, and with an income-related discount applying to only a small proportion of only one age group, with disproportionately high administration costs. If ever there was a tax that Labour should abolish in favour of funding the same services by other sources of existing taxation, it is this one.
Better surely to go for a subscription model? That way you won’t get a government announcing a 50% cut to BBC funding to pay for an increase in NHS funding just after Panorama do an expose on government corruption.
When digital came in, they had the opportunity to move to a subscription model. Which was only rejected when the license fee was invented, because the technology wasn't there.
Instead it was a proud boast that they had removed the requirement for digital TVs to support encryption - so that at least some wouldn't work with encrypted broadcasts. To block a subscription model.
The second great failing - which is slowly being sorted out - was to stop the nonsense about world wide rights. Previously, the BBC would pay for programs to be made, and often get only limited rights. The company in question (often run by people related to BBC staff!) would then sell a "BBC" program, world wide.
The tragedy is that they could have entered the streaming world with a vast library of content, with world wide rights for the newer stuff. And a subscription system in place.
Studies/polls have shown that the sale of such subscription in the US alone, would exceed the current license fee. Which suggests an idea
Imagine a BBC - free for UK citizens, paid for (willingly) by the rest of the world. Totally independent of government. No adverts....
Sigh.
As it is they obsess far too much about demographics and representation.
But, if you make the good stuff, the rest will follow. Not the other way round as they seem to think.0 -
BBC managers I have met seem to suffer from "We are the BBC, therefore automatically awesome" syndrome.Casino_Royale said:
This is very possible.Malmesbury said:
On the woke thing - I fully expect that the BBC will manage to "go woke" at the same time as producing a string of court cases for blatant, obvious discrimination.Casino_Royale said:
The more threatened and under siege it feels the more the BBC is retreating into its shell and comfort zone, and alienating those that might once have been its advocates - or at least neutral.Barnesian said:
Long term plan. The current Royal Charter for the BBC doesn't expire until 31 December 2027.Fysics_Teacher said:
In the current economic climate I’m not sure if there is enough advertising money around to finance the BBC as well as the others.Barnesian said:
I'd allow advertising. That is how ITV manages.Fysics_Teacher said:
Funding from general taxation would remove any independence the BBC currently enjoys. At least with the licence fee it is negotiated on a fairly long timescale.Wulfrun_Phil said:
You mean you hope the Government sticks to its guns, in allowing the BBC the licence (sorry!) to do that and giving them little alternative.CorrectHorseBattery said:I hope the BBC sticks to its guns and removes the license fee from over 70s. Utterly ridiculous it's free to them.
I wonder whether the Conservatives' stratospheric polling lead amongst the elderly can survive the bills hitting the doormats.
The licence fee is, in its new form, substantially worse than the poll tax ever was, and Labour should make the link. It's basically a flat rate household tax, without the reduction for small households in either the poll tax or council tax, and with an income-related discount applying to only a small proportion of only one age group, with disproportionately high administration costs. If ever there was a tax that Labour should abolish in favour of funding the same services by other sources of existing taxation, it is this one.
Better surely to go for a subscription model? That way you won’t get a government announcing a 50% cut to BBC funding to pay for an increase in NHS funding just after Panorama do an expose on government corruption.
It has no idea what to do and has an organisation and culture that seems impervious to change - except to go full Woke.
What it needs is phenomenal, inspired and determined leadership.
It won't get it.
They had some serious problems with bullying in the past too. I met an ex-BBC senior in a major infrastructure project I was worked on, who'd switched careers: she was haughty, rude and unpleasant to her underlings.
I was told this wasn't atypical at the BBC from which she originated.
Believing you are morally good, because of your job, political party etc is always a sure sign of the fall to come.4 -
A scam?contrarian said:
Its interesting because I think the opposite of this guy.Casino_Royale said:
I just hope Biden survives the next 6 weeks.Ratters said:Regarding the US elections, I note that the direction of travel of US deaths has turned over the last week (7 day average increasing). This follows a sharp rise in cases across a large number of states, including must-win states for Trump like Florida and Texas. Yet places are still mostly open/opening (Disneyland Florida opening this weekend) and mask wearing isn't good.
My initial conclusions are:
1) R will remain above 1 and cases will continue to rise until much more restrictive measures are brought in (e.g. closing bars not enough if everywhere else is open).
2) Hospitalisations and deaths will continue to rise until around 3 weeks after cases peak. Given the rate of increase in cases over the last month, I fear US deaths per day will soon rival their earlier peak (I'd guess by mid-August at the latest).
3) Eventually, this will force governors in the most affected states to impose new lockdowns or much tighter restrictions. Even a de facto lockdown (due to people being scared) will result in a fresh economic hit.
4) A second wave of deaths and job losses in the US, while Europe and east Asia has the virus still under relative control and have improving economies, will be disastrous for the GOP.
From a betting perspective, relative long-shot wins for the Democrats should offer value, particularly in the states most affected by this wave.
I think America will revive strongly while the rest of us languish. This is because the government there seems to have the courage to accept that life must go on, Corona or no corona. The courage to accept there is no such thing as a 'new normal'. The courage to tough out a tsumani of bad headlines in the opposition press to press on with economic revival.
The top rated answer on the latest terror story from SAGE in the Mail about a horrible winter Corona epidemic goes along the lines of people are starting to realise that this corona pandemic is a scam.0 -
Spending choices will come under the miscroscope. Why a focus on stamp duty instead of, say, more help to get nursery schools back up and running? Why throw money at Wetherspoons instead of independent traders and so on?Scott_xP said:
I think both of those statements are true, but I think the greatest danger comes from the disappointed he lied to.contrarian said:Johnson cannot be unseated from the left, I don;t think. His spending binges have defanged labour for the foreseeable.
Where he is vulnerable is if a revived Brexit party style party regains traction on the right.
The Leadsom clip is instructive. It's no good telling those people who lose their jobs that they voted for it.
Liz Truss waking up to the dangers is welcome, if belated. And if even she gets it, others can't be far behind...
BoZo owns Brexit, for good or ill. And there is no good.
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I have cashed out of the winning party market. The Roger Stone nonsense makes me fear that Trump will try anything to win. Anything.0
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The bar at my cricket club is back open. Great evening there last night in the sunshine watching my son train and chewing the cud with the dads.OldKingCole said:SandyRentool said:Two off topic bits:
1. Just booked a supermarket delivery slot for 2 weeks tomorrow. Didn't even have to be online at midnight to get a slot.
2. I'm heading out on an adventure to fill the car with petrol. First time in 4 months. Asda pay at pump is the safest (and cheapest) option. Face covering, disposable gloves and antibac wipes all lined up. Wish me luck!
We filled up (for the first time since v. early March on 30th, consequent on a visit to Eldest Son, 65 miles away. Now thinking about pub visit. Just been told that although recreational cricket is going to start again, the club bar won't be open.
And in summer I do like to sit, pint on the table in front of me, watching the young men of our community playing cricket. Probably watch the young women as well; a women's competition is supposed to be starting locally soon.1 -
I don't think there's any requirement to wear masks at home, made of pants or not. Whatever floats your boat tho.NerysHughes said:
I’m using used and washed pants so they are free. I’m sat in my lounge mask on, reading glasses on, no misting up at all. I am definitely onto somethingFysics_Teacher said:
I got three purpose made masks from Ocado for less than I would have paid for M&S trunks.NerysHughes said:To make 2 brilliant masks, get a pair of M & S pants (the trunk ones) with a fancy design printed on them. Just cut round the leg bits. Instant face covering. As they are elasticated they grip your face. Perfect and very comfortable
Having said that, does your method solve the glasses misting up problem?0 -
Hear hearCasino_Royale said:
Give her my best wishes, Cyclefree.Cyclefree said:OldKingCole said:Good morning ladies and gentlemen. Has summer returned?
Morning OKC.OldKingCole said:Interesting complaint in today's Guardian. Pubs which are primarily drinking places....... in other words, the sort which are, traditionally, 'at the heart off communities' are complaining that the VAT reductions, because they only apply to food and not to drink, discriminate in favour of the Wetherspoons of this world and against ye olde village hostelry.
Personally when I go my local pub; I go for a pint and a natter, and go somewhere else ...... home......for a meal.
Summer has started returning here in South Lakeland though we are not quite there yet. Last week was awful with rain and mist .
Anyway, Daughter has reopened pub and restaurant. She has made it look as nice as possible with redecoration, lots of lovely plants outside, 2 marquee areas with fairy lights and lots of lovely cushioned seating inside so that they have the look of a Moroccan-style gazebo.
Face visors for customer-facing staff and hand sanitizers etc but she’s avoided putting yellow strips everywhere so the inside looks welcoming and charming.
The first day was a nightmare - busy - and serving everyone at table slows everything down. Plus some of the locals were terrible at social distancing etc. A bit of a nightmare this: she wants locals to come in and enjoy themselves but equally she can not afford for them to break the guidance because if the virus is caught she has to close the pub down and reputationally it is a disaster.
Not all pubs have reopened. Some of those which have have taken a distinctly relaxed approach to the guidance. One even had recorded music on so loud that people were forced to shout to make themselves heard, which is bloody stupid and a risk.
Trade has been ok - tourists are coming in - and she earned some kudos with one lot on Tuesday when she does not normally do food by opening the kitchen for them as they had nowhere else to go. It’s not high summer-style busy but it’s ok so far. It needs to increase though to earn enough to see her through the autumn and winter. Takeaways are continuing and she’s focusing more and more on food to try and make up for the loss of the standing-at-the-bar trade.
The holiday lets are filling up. But hotels elsewhere are reporting very slow trade. It is very mixed. Not all the breweries have reopened fully either.
Very early days. Very stressful and tiring for her and she is very up and down in her mood and optimism. But she is giving it her best shot and she is learning in these last few weeks what most people pay a fortune to learn on an MBA course.
As to Sunak’s package: a mixed reception. Like most small places she’s on the fixed rate VAT scheme so the VAT cut means nothing and it does not help those pubs which do not do food. (She has assumed for a while that Tim Wetherspoon is the only publican who has Boris’s ear.) The £10 voucher is helpful but would ideally be best September to November, when trade is quiet. Most places around here are shut on a Monday. The £1000 grant per furloughed employee is very helpful. So she hopes to make it through to January.
What she needs now - in common with many others - is good weather, no more shocks, no second wave and no mixed messages from government Ministers.
It sounds like she's doing a fantastic job.2 -
I'm not sure how you could explain to the individuals in the graph below, that COVID19 is a scamMightyAlex said:
A scam?contrarian said:
Its interesting because I think the opposite of this guy.Casino_Royale said:
I just hope Biden survives the next 6 weeks.Ratters said:Regarding the US elections, I note that the direction of travel of US deaths has turned over the last week (7 day average increasing). This follows a sharp rise in cases across a large number of states, including must-win states for Trump like Florida and Texas. Yet places are still mostly open/opening (Disneyland Florida opening this weekend) and mask wearing isn't good.
My initial conclusions are:
1) R will remain above 1 and cases will continue to rise until much more restrictive measures are brought in (e.g. closing bars not enough if everywhere else is open).
2) Hospitalisations and deaths will continue to rise until around 3 weeks after cases peak. Given the rate of increase in cases over the last month, I fear US deaths per day will soon rival their earlier peak (I'd guess by mid-August at the latest).
3) Eventually, this will force governors in the most affected states to impose new lockdowns or much tighter restrictions. Even a de facto lockdown (due to people being scared) will result in a fresh economic hit.
4) A second wave of deaths and job losses in the US, while Europe and east Asia has the virus still under relative control and have improving economies, will be disastrous for the GOP.
From a betting perspective, relative long-shot wins for the Democrats should offer value, particularly in the states most affected by this wave.
I think America will revive strongly while the rest of us languish. This is because the government there seems to have the courage to accept that life must go on, Corona or no corona. The courage to accept there is no such thing as a 'new normal'. The courage to tough out a tsumani of bad headlines in the opposition press to press on with economic revival.
The top rated answer on the latest terror story from SAGE in the Mail about a horrible winter Corona epidemic goes along the lines of people are starting to realise that this corona pandemic is a scam.
0 -
ThxMalmesbury said:
The philosophical reason is that the BBC et al see the License Fee as a TV watching tax. If you watch "TV" (moving images not at a cinema), in their view, you owe them.TOPPING said:
I asked this the other day but might have jumped off before anyone answered. What is the rationale for needing a license fee to watch live (non-BBC) TV?Malmesbury said:
The tragedy of the BBC was that they had a perfect opportunity.Barnesian said:
I'd allow advertising. That is how ITV manages.Fysics_Teacher said:
Funding from general taxation would remove any independence the BBC currently enjoys. At least with the licence fee it is negotiated on a fairly long timescale.Wulfrun_Phil said:
You mean you hope the Government sticks to its guns, in allowing the BBC the licence (sorry!) to do that and giving them little alternative.CorrectHorseBattery said:I hope the BBC sticks to its guns and removes the license fee from over 70s. Utterly ridiculous it's free to them.
I wonder whether the Conservatives' stratospheric polling lead amongst the elderly can survive the bills hitting the doormats.
The licence fee is, in its new form, substantially worse than the poll tax ever was, and Labour should make the link. It's basically a flat rate household tax, without the reduction for small households in either the poll tax or council tax, and with an income-related discount applying to only a small proportion of only one age group, with disproportionately high administration costs. If ever there was a tax that Labour should abolish in favour of funding the same services by other sources of existing taxation, it is this one.
Better surely to go for a subscription model? That way you won’t get a government announcing a 50% cut to BBC funding to pay for an increase in NHS funding just after Panorama do an expose on government corruption.
When digital came in, they had the opportunity to move to a subscription model. Which was only rejected when the license fee was invented, because the technology wasn't there.
Instead it was a proud boast that they had removed the requirement for digital TVs to support encryption - so that at least some wouldn't work with encrypted broadcasts. To block a subscription model.
The second great failing - which is slowly being sorted out - was to stop the nonsense about world wide rights. Previously, the BBC would pay for programs to be made, and often get only limited rights. The company in question (often run by people related to BBC staff!) would then sell a "BBC" program, world wide.
The tragedy is that they could have entered the streaming world with a vast library of content, with world wide rights for the newer stuff. And a subscription system in place.
Studies/polls have shown that the sale of such subscription in the US alone, would exceed the current license fee. Which suggests an idea
Imagine a BBC - free for UK citizens, paid for (willingly) by the rest of the world. Totally independent of government. No adverts....
Sigh.
The legal reason - you'd need to speak to a lawyer.0 -
Quite.SouthamObserver said:As I have argued on here before many time, the BBC should drop the licence fee and seek to compete on the open market as a subscriber-controlled, National Trust-style, organisation that is also able to raise money on the markets. With the brand equity it has, I suspect it would blow most of the competition out of the water - especially if it took control of its back catalogue and was able to decide on which platforms BBC programming appeared.
But there would be little or no need to go to the markets for funding - selling world wide subscriptions to the BBC would net billions in revenue.0 -
Quite right. Well said. Lots of selfishness still about sadly whereby people think we should reduce risk to zero while happily letting businesses like that of CycleFree’s daughter go to the wall.DavidL said:
Well good luck to her. We are going to our local cafe which has opened its awning as an "outside" area today for the first time. Slightly surprised that they have got away with it to be honest but good luck to them too. We all (except those shielding, of course) need to get out and about again encouraging and helping these establishments if we want them to survive.Cyclefree said:OldKingCole said:Good morning ladies and gentlemen. Has summer returned?
Morning OKC.OldKingCole said:Interesting complaint in today's Guardian. Pubs which are primarily drinking places....... in other words, the sort which are, traditionally, 'at the heart off communities' are complaining that the VAT reductions, because they only apply to food and not to drink, discriminate in favour of the Wetherspoons of this world and against ye olde village hostelry.
Personally when I go my local pub; I go for a pint and a natter, and go somewhere else ...... home......for a meal.
Summer has started returning here in South Lakeland though we are not quite there yet. Last week was awful with rain and mist .
Anyway, Daughter has reopened pub and restaurant. She has made it look as nice as possible with redecoration, lots of lovely plants outside, 2 marquee areas with fairy lights and lots of lovely cushioned seating inside so that they have the look of a Moroccan-style gazebo.
Face visors for customer-facing staff and hand sanitizers etc but she’s avoided putting yellow strips everywhere so the inside looks welcoming and charming.
The first day was a nightmare - busy - and serving everyone at table slows everything down. Plus some of the locals were terrible at social distancing etc. A bit of a nightmare this: she wants locals to come in and enjoy themselves but equally she can not afford for them to break the guidance because if the virus is caught she has to close the pub down and reputationally it is a disaster.
Not all pubs have reopened. Some of those which have have taken a distinctly relaxed approach to the guidance. One even had recorded music on so loud that people were forced to shout to make themselves heard, which is bloody stupid and a risk.
Trade has been ok - tourists are coming in - and she earned some kudos with one lot on Tuesday when she does not normally do food by opening the kitchen for them as they had nowhere else to go. It’s not high summer-style busy but it’s ok so far. It needs to increase though to earn enough to see her through the autumn and winter. Takeaways are continuing and she’s focusing more and more on food to try and make up for the loss of the standing-at-the-bar trade.
The holiday lets are filling up. But hotels elsewhere are reporting very slow trade. It is very mixed. Not all the breweries have reopened fully either.
Very early days. Very stressful and tiring for her and she is very up and down in her mood and optimism. But she is giving it her best shot and she is learning in these last few weeks what most people pay a fortune to learn on an MBA course.
As to Sunak’s package: a mixed reception. Like most small places she’s on the fixed rate VAT scheme so the VAT cut means nothing and it does not help those pubs which do not do food. (She has assumed for a while that Tim Wetherspoon is the only publican who has Boris’s ear.) The £10 voucher is helpful but would ideally be best September to November, when trade is quiet. Most places around here are shut on a Monday. The £1000 grant per furloughed employee is very helpful. So she hopes to make it through to January.
What she needs now - in common with many others - is good weather, no more shocks, no second wave and no mixed messages from government Ministers.2 -
England slowly chipping away at the lead. There’s a Test on!0
-
There will be major upfront costs, though. You'd borrow against the future revenue subs would generate.Malmesbury said:
Quite.SouthamObserver said:As I have argued on here before many time, the BBC should drop the licence fee and seek to compete on the open market as a subscriber-controlled, National Trust-style, organisation that is also able to raise money on the markets. With the brand equity it has, I suspect it would blow most of the competition out of the water - especially if it took control of its back catalogue and was able to decide on which platforms BBC programming appeared.
But there would be little or no need to go to the markets for funding - selling world wide subscriptions to the BBC would net billions in revenue.
0 -
I agree on the first sentence.SouthamObserver said:As I have argued on here before many time, the BBC should drop the licence fee and seek to compete on the open market as a subscriber-controlled, National Trust-style, organisation that is also able to raise money on the markets. With the brand equity it has, I suspect it would blow most of the competition out of the water - especially if it took control of its back catalogue and was able to decide on which platforms BBC programming appeared.
I'm not sure I'm seeing the evidence at the moment that it'd blow the competition out of the water.
The only example I can think of that does is its natural world programmes.0 -
F1: main 'to win' market up for qualifying, other stuff yet to appear.
Interested to see what the winner without the 'big 6' market is (may be McLaren value on Sainz) but otherwise not that keen on betting.0 -
That sounds hopeful on the whole - we're all cheering her on! Where is it exactly? - perhaps some on the site will be nearby and can have a drink or a meal there.Cyclefree said:
Morning OKC.OldKingCole said:Good morning ladies and gentlemen. Has summer returned?
Summer has started returning here in South Lakeland though we are not quite there yet. Last week was awful with rain and mist .
Anyway, Daughter has reopened pub and restaurant. She has made it look as nice as possible with redecoration, lots of lovely plants outside, 2 marquee areas with fairy lights and lots of lovely cushioned seating inside so that they have the look of a Moroccan-style gazebo.
Face visors for customer-facing staff and hand sanitizers etc but she’s avoided putting yellow strips everywhere so the inside looks welcoming and charming.
The first day was a nightmare - busy - and serving everyone at table slows everything down. Plus some of the locals were terrible at social distancing etc. A bit of a nightmare this: she wants locals to come in and enjoy themselves but equally she can not afford for them to break the guidance because if the virus is caught she has to close the pub down and reputationally it is a disaster.
Not all pubs have reopened. Some of those which have have taken a distinctly relaxed approach to the guidance. One even had recorded music on so loud that people were forced to shout to make themselves heard, which is bloody stupid and a risk.
Trade has been ok - tourists are coming in - and she earned some kudos with one lot on Tuesday when she does not normally do food by opening the kitchen for them as they had nowhere else to go. It’s not high summer-style busy but it’s ok so far. It needs to increase though to earn enough to see her through the autumn and winter. Takeaways are continuing and she’s focusing more and more on food to try and make up for the loss of the standing-at-the-bar trade.
The holiday lets are filling up. But hotels elsewhere are reporting very slow trade. It is very mixed. Not all the breweries have reopened fully either.
Very early days. Very stressful and tiring for her and she is very up and down in her mood and optimism. But she is giving it her best shot and she is learning in these last few weeks what most people pay a fortune to learn on an MBA course.
As to Sunak’s package: a mixed reception. Like most small places she’s on the fixed rate VAT scheme so the VAT cut means nothing and it does not help those pubs which do not do food. (She has assumed for a while that Tim Wetherspoon is the only publican who has Boris’s ear.) The £10 voucher is helpful but would ideally be best September to November, when trade is quiet. Most places around here are shut on a Monday. The £1000 grant per furloughed employee is very helpful. So she hopes to make it through to January.
What she needs now - in common with many others - is good weather, no more shocks, no second wave and no mixed messages from government Ministers.
I went for a haircut to my usual barbers, who were super-compliant - appointments only, no waiting indoors, barbers in visors, disposable aprons for customers, etc. Just up the road a rival place wseemed to be completely ignoring the precautions - barbers with no protective equipment, people sitting inside awaiting their turn, usual aprons for customers. It would be nice to think that my place will attract more custom as a result rather than less. In the long run I suppose that would happen by, to put it delicately, natural selection, but survival of small businesses is a matter of the short run.3 -
Involving Soros if you read the more 'Platonic' end of social media. Quite what he's getting out of this scam has yet to be confirmed/made up.MightyAlex said:
A scam?contrarian said:
Its interesting because I think the opposite of this guy.Casino_Royale said:
I just hope Biden survives the next 6 weeks.Ratters said:Regarding the US elections, I note that the direction of travel of US deaths has turned over the last week (7 day average increasing). This follows a sharp rise in cases across a large number of states, including must-win states for Trump like Florida and Texas. Yet places are still mostly open/opening (Disneyland Florida opening this weekend) and mask wearing isn't good.
My initial conclusions are:
1) R will remain above 1 and cases will continue to rise until much more restrictive measures are brought in (e.g. closing bars not enough if everywhere else is open).
2) Hospitalisations and deaths will continue to rise until around 3 weeks after cases peak. Given the rate of increase in cases over the last month, I fear US deaths per day will soon rival their earlier peak (I'd guess by mid-August at the latest).
3) Eventually, this will force governors in the most affected states to impose new lockdowns or much tighter restrictions. Even a de facto lockdown (due to people being scared) will result in a fresh economic hit.
4) A second wave of deaths and job losses in the US, while Europe and east Asia has the virus still under relative control and have improving economies, will be disastrous for the GOP.
From a betting perspective, relative long-shot wins for the Democrats should offer value, particularly in the states most affected by this wave.
I think America will revive strongly while the rest of us languish. This is because the government there seems to have the courage to accept that life must go on, Corona or no corona. The courage to accept there is no such thing as a 'new normal'. The courage to tough out a tsumani of bad headlines in the opposition press to press on with economic revival.
The top rated answer on the latest terror story from SAGE in the Mail about a horrible winter Corona epidemic goes along the lines of people are starting to realise that this corona pandemic is a scam.0 -
With money you can move very quickly to hire the best creative people.Casino_Royale said:
I agree on the first sentence.SouthamObserver said:As I have argued on here before many time, the BBC should drop the licence fee and seek to compete on the open market as a subscriber-controlled, National Trust-style, organisation that is also able to raise money on the markets. With the brand equity it has, I suspect it would blow most of the competition out of the water - especially if it took control of its back catalogue and was able to decide on which platforms BBC programming appeared.
I'm not sure I'm seeing the evidence at the moment that it'd blow the competition out of the water.
The only example I can think of that does is its natural world programmes.
0 -
The subscription, streaming model scale at a profit. You can add subscribers and simply buy cloud capacity to serve them at the same time.SouthamObserver said:
There will be major upfront costs, though. You'd borrow against the future revenue subs would generate.Malmesbury said:
Quite.SouthamObserver said:As I have argued on here before many time, the BBC should drop the licence fee and seek to compete on the open market as a subscriber-controlled, National Trust-style, organisation that is also able to raise money on the markets. With the brand equity it has, I suspect it would blow most of the competition out of the water - especially if it took control of its back catalogue and was able to decide on which platforms BBC programming appeared.
But there would be little or no need to go to the markets for funding - selling world wide subscriptions to the BBC would net billions in revenue.
Yes, there are limits - and points where it is cost effective to forward deploy content.0 -
But to get the money you have to offer a very attractive service to get the subscribers.SouthamObserver said:
With money you can move very quickly to hire the best creative people.Casino_Royale said:
I agree on the first sentence.SouthamObserver said:As I have argued on here before many time, the BBC should drop the licence fee and seek to compete on the open market as a subscriber-controlled, National Trust-style, organisation that is also able to raise money on the markets. With the brand equity it has, I suspect it would blow most of the competition out of the water - especially if it took control of its back catalogue and was able to decide on which platforms BBC programming appeared.
I'm not sure I'm seeing the evidence at the moment that it'd blow the competition out of the water.
The only example I can think of that does is its natural world programmes.
It's a bit chicken and egg.
The BBC will also have a strong legacy culture (that encourages conformity, not innovation) to contend with too and be handicapped by high unionisation too.0 -
Aren't the fixed VAT rates to be adjusted?Cyclefree said:OldKingCole said:Good morning ladies and gentlemen. Has summer returned?
Morning OKC.OldKingCole said:Interesting complaint in today's Guardian. Pubs which are primarily drinking places....... in other words, the sort which are, traditionally, 'at the heart off communities' are complaining that the VAT reductions, because they only apply to food and not to drink, discriminate in favour of the Wetherspoons of this world and against ye olde village hostelry.
Personally when I go my local pub; I go for a pint and a natter, and go somewhere else ...... home......for a meal.
Summer has started returning here in South Lakeland though we are not quite there yet. Last week was awful with rain and mist .
Anyway, Daughter has reopened pub and restaurant. She has made it look as nice as possible with redecoration, lots of lovely plants outside, 2 marquee areas with fairy lights and lots of lovely cushioned seating inside so that they have the look of a Moroccan-style gazebo.
Face visors for customer-facing staff and hand sanitizers etc but she’s avoided putting yellow strips everywhere so the inside looks welcoming and charming.
The first day was a nightmare - busy - and serving everyone at table slows everything down. Plus some of the locals were terrible at social distancing etc. A bit of a nightmare this: she wants locals to come in and enjoy themselves but equally she can not afford for them to break the guidance because if the virus is caught she has to close the pub down and reputationally it is a disaster.
Not all pubs have reopened. Some of those which have have taken a distinctly relaxed approach to the guidance. One even had recorded music on so loud that people were forced to shout to make themselves heard, which is bloody stupid and a risk.
Trade has been ok - tourists are coming in - and she earned some kudos with one lot on Tuesday when she does not normally do food by opening the kitchen for them as they had nowhere else to go. It’s not high summer-style busy but it’s ok so far. It needs to increase though to earn enough to see her through the autumn and winter. Takeaways are continuing and she’s focusing more and more on food to try and make up for the loss of the standing-at-the-bar trade.
The holiday lets are filling up. But hotels elsewhere are reporting very slow trade. It is very mixed. Not all the breweries have reopened fully either.
Very early days. Very stressful and tiring for her and she is very up and down in her mood and optimism. But she is giving it her best shot and she is learning in these last few weeks what most people pay a fortune to learn on an MBA course.
As to Sunak’s package: a mixed reception. Like most small places she’s on the fixed rate VAT scheme so the VAT cut means nothing and it does not help those pubs which do not do food. (She has assumed for a while that Tim Wetherspoon is the only publican who has Boris’s ear.) The £10 voucher is helpful but would ideally be best September to November, when trade is quiet. Most places around here are shut on a Monday. The £1000 grant per furloughed employee is very helpful. So she hopes to make it through to January.
What she needs now - in common with many others - is good weather, no more shocks, no second wave and no mixed messages from government Ministers.
0 -
I'd pay more to subscribe to the BBC than I do now via the LF. So if I'm in any way typical it would a goldmine. But I'd rather such an asset was not privatised.SouthamObserver said:As I have argued on here before many time, the BBC should drop the licence fee and seek to compete on the open market as a subscriber-controlled, National Trust-style, organisation that is also able to raise money on the markets. With the brand equity it has, I suspect it would blow most of the competition out of the water - especially if it took control of its back catalogue and was able to decide on which platforms BBC programming appeared.
0 -
A key plank of the Covid Data Wranglers world view is that this is all a fuss over nothing.Malmesbury said:
I'm not sure how you could explain to the individuals in the graph below, that COVID19 is a scamMightyAlex said:
A scam?contrarian said:
Its interesting because I think the opposite of this guy.Casino_Royale said:
I just hope Biden survives the next 6 weeks.Ratters said:Regarding the US elections, I note that the direction of travel of US deaths has turned over the last week (7 day average increasing). This follows a sharp rise in cases across a large number of states, including must-win states for Trump like Florida and Texas. Yet places are still mostly open/opening (Disneyland Florida opening this weekend) and mask wearing isn't good.
My initial conclusions are:
1) R will remain above 1 and cases will continue to rise until much more restrictive measures are brought in (e.g. closing bars not enough if everywhere else is open).
2) Hospitalisations and deaths will continue to rise until around 3 weeks after cases peak. Given the rate of increase in cases over the last month, I fear US deaths per day will soon rival their earlier peak (I'd guess by mid-August at the latest).
3) Eventually, this will force governors in the most affected states to impose new lockdowns or much tighter restrictions. Even a de facto lockdown (due to people being scared) will result in a fresh economic hit.
4) A second wave of deaths and job losses in the US, while Europe and east Asia has the virus still under relative control and have improving economies, will be disastrous for the GOP.
From a betting perspective, relative long-shot wins for the Democrats should offer value, particularly in the states most affected by this wave.
I think America will revive strongly while the rest of us languish. This is because the government there seems to have the courage to accept that life must go on, Corona or no corona. The courage to accept there is no such thing as a 'new normal'. The courage to tough out a tsumani of bad headlines in the opposition press to press on with economic revival.
The top rated answer on the latest terror story from SAGE in the Mail about a horrible winter Corona epidemic goes along the lines of people are starting to realise that this corona pandemic is a scam.
Back at the beginning of the epidemic they were saying we wouldn't even see the number of deaths of an average flu season.
I believe the new claim is that in a years time the overall deaths for the year will look unremarkable.
This then somehow proves the lockdown had no effect or something.2 -
I don't often go to Lakeland; long way from Essex, but we do occasionally as we've relations not far away, and I would try to go if I was in the area.NickPalmer said:
That sounds hopeful on the whole - we're all cheering her on! Where is it exactly? - perhaps some on the site will be nearby and can have a drink or a meal there.Cyclefree said:
Morning OKC.OldKingCole said:Good morning ladies and gentlemen. Has summer returned?
Summer has started returning here in South Lakeland though we are not quite there yet. Last week was awful with rain and mist .
Anyway, Daughter has reopened pub and restaurant. She has made it look as nice as possible with redecoration, lots of lovely plants outside, 2 marquee areas with fairy lights and lots of lovely cushioned seating inside so that they have the look of a Moroccan-style gazebo.
Face visors for customer-facing staff and hand sanitizers etc but she’s avoided putting yellow strips everywhere so the inside looks welcoming and charming.
The first day was a nightmare - busy - and serving everyone at table slows everything down. Plus some of the locals were terrible at social distancing etc. A bit of a nightmare this: she wants locals to come in and enjoy themselves but equally she can not afford for them to break the guidance because if the virus is caught she has to close the pub down and reputationally it is a disaster.
Not all pubs have reopened. Some of those which have have taken a distinctly relaxed approach to the guidance. One even had recorded music on so loud that people were forced to shout to make themselves heard, which is bloody stupid and a risk.
Trade has been ok - tourists are coming in - and she earned some kudos with one lot on Tuesday when she does not normally do food by opening the kitchen for them as they had nowhere else to go. It’s not high summer-style busy but it’s ok so far. It needs to increase though to earn enough to see her through the autumn and winter. Takeaways are continuing and she’s focusing more and more on food to try and make up for the loss of the standing-at-the-bar trade.
The holiday lets are filling up. But hotels elsewhere are reporting very slow trade. It is very mixed. Not all the breweries have reopened fully either.
Very early days. Very stressful and tiring for her and she is very up and down in her mood and optimism. But she is giving it her best shot and she is learning in these last few weeks what most people pay a fortune to learn on an MBA course.
As to Sunak’s package: a mixed reception. Like most small places she’s on the fixed rate VAT scheme so the VAT cut means nothing and it does not help those pubs which do not do food. (She has assumed for a while that Tim Wetherspoon is the only publican who has Boris’s ear.) The £10 voucher is helpful but would ideally be best September to November, when trade is quiet. Most places around here are shut on a Monday. The £1000 grant per furloughed employee is very helpful. So she hopes to make it through to January.
What she needs now - in common with many others - is good weather, no more shocks, no second wave and no mixed messages from government Ministers.
I went for a haircut to my usual barbers, who were super-compliant - appointments only, no waiting indoors, barbers in visors, disposable aprons for customers, etc. Just up the road a rival place wseemed to be completely ignoring the precautions - barbers with no protective equipment, people sitting inside awaiting their turn, usual aprons for customers. It would be nice to think that my place will attract more custom as a result rather than less. In the long run I suppose that would happen by, to put it delicately, natural selection, but survival of small businesses is a matter of the short run.
Had a haircut on Wednesday; appointment's only, visor for the (young lady) barber. I think all three of our local mens barbers are 'Doing the Right Things'.0 -
Windies have really stopped the runs. Pressure building.0
-
Can I ask what a “let plank” is? Apologies if it’s a typo, but I’ve no idea what you were trying to say.Alistair said:
A let plank of the Covid Data Wranglers world view is that this is all a fuss over nothing.Malmesbury said:
I'm not sure how you could explain to the individuals in the graph below, that COVID19 is a scamMightyAlex said:
A scam?contrarian said:
Its interesting because I think the opposite of this guy.Casino_Royale said:
I just hope Biden survives the next 6 weeks.Ratters said:Regarding the US elections, I note that the direction of travel of US deaths has turned over the last week (7 day average increasing). This follows a sharp rise in cases across a large number of states, including must-win states for Trump like Florida and Texas. Yet places are still mostly open/opening (Disneyland Florida opening this weekend) and mask wearing isn't good.
My initial conclusions are:
1) R will remain above 1 and cases will continue to rise until much more restrictive measures are brought in (e.g. closing bars not enough if everywhere else is open).
2) Hospitalisations and deaths will continue to rise until around 3 weeks after cases peak. Given the rate of increase in cases over the last month, I fear US deaths per day will soon rival their earlier peak (I'd guess by mid-August at the latest).
3) Eventually, this will force governors in the most affected states to impose new lockdowns or much tighter restrictions. Even a de facto lockdown (due to people being scared) will result in a fresh economic hit.
4) A second wave of deaths and job losses in the US, while Europe and east Asia has the virus still under relative control and have improving economies, will be disastrous for the GOP.
From a betting perspective, relative long-shot wins for the Democrats should offer value, particularly in the states most affected by this wave.
I think America will revive strongly while the rest of us languish. This is because the government there seems to have the courage to accept that life must go on, Corona or no corona. The courage to accept there is no such thing as a 'new normal'. The courage to tough out a tsumani of bad headlines in the opposition press to press on with economic revival.
The top rated answer on the latest terror story from SAGE in the Mail about a horrible winter Corona epidemic goes along the lines of people are starting to realise that this corona pandemic is a scam.
Back at the beginning of the epidemic they were saying we wouldn't even see the number of deaths of an average flu season.
I believe the new claim is that in a years time the overall deaths for the year will look unremarkable.
This then somehow proves the lockdown had no effect or something.
0 -
-
For the last few days I have been following the US data in a lot more detail also.Theuniondivvie said:
Involving Soros if you read the more 'Platonic' end of social media. Quite what he's getting out of this scam has yet to be confirmed/made up.MightyAlex said:
A scam?contrarian said:
Its interesting because I think the opposite of this guy.Casino_Royale said:
I just hope Biden survives the next 6 weeks.Ratters said:Regarding the US elections, I note that the direction of travel of US deaths has turned over the last week (7 day average increasing). This follows a sharp rise in cases across a large number of states, including must-win states for Trump like Florida and Texas. Yet places are still mostly open/opening (Disneyland Florida opening this weekend) and mask wearing isn't good.
My initial conclusions are:
1) R will remain above 1 and cases will continue to rise until much more restrictive measures are brought in (e.g. closing bars not enough if everywhere else is open).
2) Hospitalisations and deaths will continue to rise until around 3 weeks after cases peak. Given the rate of increase in cases over the last month, I fear US deaths per day will soon rival their earlier peak (I'd guess by mid-August at the latest).
3) Eventually, this will force governors in the most affected states to impose new lockdowns or much tighter restrictions. Even a de facto lockdown (due to people being scared) will result in a fresh economic hit.
4) A second wave of deaths and job losses in the US, while Europe and east Asia has the virus still under relative control and have improving economies, will be disastrous for the GOP.
From a betting perspective, relative long-shot wins for the Democrats should offer value, particularly in the states most affected by this wave.
I think America will revive strongly while the rest of us languish. This is because the government there seems to have the courage to accept that life must go on, Corona or no corona. The courage to accept there is no such thing as a 'new normal'. The courage to tough out a tsumani of bad headlines in the opposition press to press on with economic revival.
The top rated answer on the latest terror story from SAGE in the Mail about a horrible winter Corona epidemic goes along the lines of people are starting to realise that this corona pandemic is a scam.
In successive days cases went up 5K, it plateaued on one day only to go up 10K the following day. Yesterday was over 70K The anticipated number of deaths has increased by 50K over the last few weeks or so to 210K and that was assuming projection of deaths in the 600 range over the last few days whereas they were actually in the 800 - 1000 range. I suspect after the normal weekend drop in numbers due to reporting it will spike even higher next week. At some point it must start mass panic.0 -
The Punchbowl Inn, The Green, Cumbria LA18 5HB - https://en-gb.facebook.com/Punchbowl.TheGreen/NickPalmer said:
That sounds hopeful on the whole - we're all cheering her on! Where is it exactly? - perhaps some on the site will be nearby and can have a drink or a meal there.Cyclefree said:
Morning OKC.OldKingCole said:Good morning ladies and gentlemen. Has summer returned?
Summer has started returning here in South Lakeland though we are not quite there yet. Last week was awful with rain and mist .
Anyway, Daughter has reopened pub and restaurant. She has made it look as nice as possible with redecoration, lots of lovely plants outside, 2 marquee areas with fairy lights and lots of lovely cushioned seating inside so that they have the look of a Moroccan-style gazebo.
Face visors for customer-facing staff and hand sanitizers etc but she’s avoided putting yellow strips everywhere so the inside looks welcoming and charming.
The first day was a nightmare - busy - and serving everyone at table slows everything down. Plus some of the locals were terrible at social distancing etc. A bit of a nightmare this: she wants locals to come in and enjoy themselves but equally she can not afford for them to break the guidance because if the virus is caught she has to close the pub down and reputationally it is a disaster.
Not all pubs have reopened. Some of those which have have taken a distinctly relaxed approach to the guidance. One even had recorded music on so loud that people were forced to shout to make themselves heard, which is bloody stupid and a risk.
Trade has been ok - tourists are coming in - and she earned some kudos with one lot on Tuesday when she does not normally do food by opening the kitchen for them as they had nowhere else to go. It’s not high summer-style busy but it’s ok so far. It needs to increase though to earn enough to see her through the autumn and winter. Takeaways are continuing and she’s focusing more and more on food to try and make up for the loss of the standing-at-the-bar trade.
The holiday lets are filling up. But hotels elsewhere are reporting very slow trade. It is very mixed. Not all the breweries have reopened fully either.
Very early days. Very stressful and tiring for her and she is very up and down in her mood and optimism. But she is giving it her best shot and she is learning in these last few weeks what most people pay a fortune to learn on an MBA course.
As to Sunak’s package: a mixed reception. Like most small places she’s on the fixed rate VAT scheme so the VAT cut means nothing and it does not help those pubs which do not do food. (She has assumed for a while that Tim Wetherspoon is the only publican who has Boris’s ear.) The £10 voucher is helpful but would ideally be best September to November, when trade is quiet. Most places around here are shut on a Monday. The £1000 grant per furloughed employee is very helpful. So she hopes to make it through to January.
What she needs now - in common with many others - is good weather, no more shocks, no second wave and no mixed messages from government Ministers.
I went for a haircut to my usual barbers, who were super-compliant - appointments only, no waiting indoors, barbers in visors, disposable aprons for customers, etc. Just up the road a rival place wseemed to be completely ignoring the precautions - barbers with no protective equipment, people sitting inside awaiting their turn, usual aprons for customers. It would be nice to think that my place will attract more custom as a result rather than less. In the long run I suppose that would happen by, to put it delicately, natural selection, but survival of small businesses is a matter of the short run.
The photos need updating to show my wonderful flower arrangements!
Lots of magnificent walks nearby, biking of all types, horse-riding and long lovely sandy beaches.
You would all be very welcome!
In Daughter’s view, the reasons for the safety precautions are (1) to reassure customers so that they feel happy about coming; (2) to protect staff who are the heart of any hospitality businesses; (3) for the business’s reputation; and (4) to protect me.0 -
"Key plank"Fysics_Teacher said:
Can I ask what a “let plank” is? Apologies if it’s a typo, but I’ve no idea what you were trying to say.Alistair said:
A let plank of the Covid Data Wranglers world view is that this is all a fuss over nothing.Malmesbury said:
I'm not sure how you could explain to the individuals in the graph below, that COVID19 is a scamMightyAlex said:
A scam?contrarian said:
Its interesting because I think the opposite of this guy.Casino_Royale said:
I just hope Biden survives the next 6 weeks.Ratters said:Regarding the US elections, I note that the direction of travel of US deaths has turned over the last week (7 day average increasing). This follows a sharp rise in cases across a large number of states, including must-win states for Trump like Florida and Texas. Yet places are still mostly open/opening (Disneyland Florida opening this weekend) and mask wearing isn't good.
My initial conclusions are:
1) R will remain above 1 and cases will continue to rise until much more restrictive measures are brought in (e.g. closing bars not enough if everywhere else is open).
2) Hospitalisations and deaths will continue to rise until around 3 weeks after cases peak. Given the rate of increase in cases over the last month, I fear US deaths per day will soon rival their earlier peak (I'd guess by mid-August at the latest).
3) Eventually, this will force governors in the most affected states to impose new lockdowns or much tighter restrictions. Even a de facto lockdown (due to people being scared) will result in a fresh economic hit.
4) A second wave of deaths and job losses in the US, while Europe and east Asia has the virus still under relative control and have improving economies, will be disastrous for the GOP.
From a betting perspective, relative long-shot wins for the Democrats should offer value, particularly in the states most affected by this wave.
I think America will revive strongly while the rest of us languish. This is because the government there seems to have the courage to accept that life must go on, Corona or no corona. The courage to accept there is no such thing as a 'new normal'. The courage to tough out a tsumani of bad headlines in the opposition press to press on with economic revival.
The top rated answer on the latest terror story from SAGE in the Mail about a horrible winter Corona epidemic goes along the lines of people are starting to realise that this corona pandemic is a scam.
Back at the beginning of the epidemic they were saying we wouldn't even see the number of deaths of an average flu season.
I believe the new claim is that in a years time the overall deaths for the year will look unremarkable.
This then somehow proves the lockdown had no effect or something.
Impressive predictive text fail there.0 -
1
-
Thanks! I was worried that there was a new phrase I didn’t know.Alistair said:
"Key plank"Fysics_Teacher said:
Can I ask what a “let plank” is? Apologies if it’s a typo, but I’ve no idea what you were trying to say.Alistair said:
A let plank of the Covid Data Wranglers world view is that this is all a fuss over nothing.Malmesbury said:
I'm not sure how you could explain to the individuals in the graph below, that COVID19 is a scamMightyAlex said:
A scam?contrarian said:
Its interesting because I think the opposite of this guy.Casino_Royale said:
I just hope Biden survives the next 6 weeks.Ratters said:Regarding the US elections, I note that the direction of travel of US deaths has turned over the last week (7 day average increasing). This follows a sharp rise in cases across a large number of states, including must-win states for Trump like Florida and Texas. Yet places are still mostly open/opening (Disneyland Florida opening this weekend) and mask wearing isn't good.
My initial conclusions are:
1) R will remain above 1 and cases will continue to rise until much more restrictive measures are brought in (e.g. closing bars not enough if everywhere else is open).
2) Hospitalisations and deaths will continue to rise until around 3 weeks after cases peak. Given the rate of increase in cases over the last month, I fear US deaths per day will soon rival their earlier peak (I'd guess by mid-August at the latest).
3) Eventually, this will force governors in the most affected states to impose new lockdowns or much tighter restrictions. Even a de facto lockdown (due to people being scared) will result in a fresh economic hit.
4) A second wave of deaths and job losses in the US, while Europe and east Asia has the virus still under relative control and have improving economies, will be disastrous for the GOP.
From a betting perspective, relative long-shot wins for the Democrats should offer value, particularly in the states most affected by this wave.
I think America will revive strongly while the rest of us languish. This is because the government there seems to have the courage to accept that life must go on, Corona or no corona. The courage to accept there is no such thing as a 'new normal'. The courage to tough out a tsumani of bad headlines in the opposition press to press on with economic revival.
The top rated answer on the latest terror story from SAGE in the Mail about a horrible winter Corona epidemic goes along the lines of people are starting to realise that this corona pandemic is a scam.
Back at the beginning of the epidemic they were saying we wouldn't even see the number of deaths of an average flu season.
I believe the new claim is that in a years time the overall deaths for the year will look unremarkable.
This then somehow proves the lockdown had no effect or something.
Impressive predictive text fail there.
Autocorrect is the reason I don’t use dictation software in lessons after it misheard me when talking about “Doppler Shift”...
1 -
F1: Styrian Grand Prix ramble ahead of qualifying, if it happens:
https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2020/07/styrian-grand-prix-pre-qualifying-2020.html
Don't forget Norris has a 3 place grid penalty.0 -
We are here at the dawn of a new collective term - a "Let Plank" of Amateur Scientists.Fysics_Teacher said:
Can I ask what a “let plank” is? Apologies if it’s a typo, but I’ve no idea what you were trying to say.Alistair said:
A let plank of the Covid Data Wranglers world view is that this is all a fuss over nothing.Malmesbury said:
I'm not sure how you could explain to the individuals in the graph below, that COVID19 is a scamMightyAlex said:
A scam?contrarian said:
Its interesting because I think the opposite of this guy.Casino_Royale said:
I just hope Biden survives the next 6 weeks.Ratters said:Regarding the US elections, I note that the direction of travel of US deaths has turned over the last week (7 day average increasing). This follows a sharp rise in cases across a large number of states, including must-win states for Trump like Florida and Texas. Yet places are still mostly open/opening (Disneyland Florida opening this weekend) and mask wearing isn't good.
My initial conclusions are:
1) R will remain above 1 and cases will continue to rise until much more restrictive measures are brought in (e.g. closing bars not enough if everywhere else is open).
2) Hospitalisations and deaths will continue to rise until around 3 weeks after cases peak. Given the rate of increase in cases over the last month, I fear US deaths per day will soon rival their earlier peak (I'd guess by mid-August at the latest).
3) Eventually, this will force governors in the most affected states to impose new lockdowns or much tighter restrictions. Even a de facto lockdown (due to people being scared) will result in a fresh economic hit.
4) A second wave of deaths and job losses in the US, while Europe and east Asia has the virus still under relative control and have improving economies, will be disastrous for the GOP.
From a betting perspective, relative long-shot wins for the Democrats should offer value, particularly in the states most affected by this wave.
I think America will revive strongly while the rest of us languish. This is because the government there seems to have the courage to accept that life must go on, Corona or no corona. The courage to accept there is no such thing as a 'new normal'. The courage to tough out a tsumani of bad headlines in the opposition press to press on with economic revival.
The top rated answer on the latest terror story from SAGE in the Mail about a horrible winter Corona epidemic goes along the lines of people are starting to realise that this corona pandemic is a scam.
Back at the beginning of the epidemic they were saying we wouldn't even see the number of deaths of an average flu season.
I believe the new claim is that in a years time the overall deaths for the year will look unremarkable.
This then somehow proves the lockdown had no effect or something.
Bit like a school of Lawyers.1 -
Was planning on visiting Ulverston for a few nights before the lurgy set in. Will definitely stop by should I ever get it re-arranged.Cyclefree said:
The Punchbowl Inn, The Green, Cumbria LA18 5HB - https://en-gb.facebook.com/Punchbowl.TheGreen/NickPalmer said:
That sounds hopeful on the whole - we're all cheering her on! Where is it exactly? - perhaps some on the site will be nearby and can have a drink or a meal there.Cyclefree said:
Morning OKC.OldKingCole said:Good morning ladies and gentlemen. Has summer returned?
Summer has started returning here in South Lakeland though we are not quite there yet. Last week was awful with rain and mist .
Anyway, Daughter has reopened pub and restaurant. She has made it look as nice as possible with redecoration, lots of lovely plants outside, 2 marquee areas with fairy lights and lots of lovely cushioned seating inside so that they have the look of a Moroccan-style gazebo.
Face visors for customer-facing staff and hand sanitizers etc but she’s avoided putting yellow strips everywhere so the inside looks welcoming and charming.
The first day was a nightmare - busy - and serving everyone at table slows everything down. Plus some of the locals were terrible at social distancing etc. A bit of a nightmare this: she wants locals to come in and enjoy themselves but equally she can not afford for them to break the guidance because if the virus is caught she has to close the pub down and reputationally it is a disaster.
Not all pubs have reopened. Some of those which have have taken a distinctly relaxed approach to the guidance. One even had recorded music on so loud that people were forced to shout to make themselves heard, which is bloody stupid and a risk.
Trade has been ok - tourists are coming in - and she earned some kudos with one lot on Tuesday when she does not normally do food by opening the kitchen for them as they had nowhere else to go. It’s not high summer-style busy but it’s ok so far. It needs to increase though to earn enough to see her through the autumn and winter. Takeaways are continuing and she’s focusing more and more on food to try and make up for the loss of the standing-at-the-bar trade.
The holiday lets are filling up. But hotels elsewhere are reporting very slow trade. It is very mixed. Not all the breweries have reopened fully either.
Very early days. Very stressful and tiring for her and she is very up and down in her mood and optimism. But she is giving it her best shot and she is learning in these last few weeks what most people pay a fortune to learn on an MBA course.
As to Sunak’s package: a mixed reception. Like most small places she’s on the fixed rate VAT scheme so the VAT cut means nothing and it does not help those pubs which do not do food. (She has assumed for a while that Tim Wetherspoon is the only publican who has Boris’s ear.) The £10 voucher is helpful but would ideally be best September to November, when trade is quiet. Most places around here are shut on a Monday. The £1000 grant per furloughed employee is very helpful. So she hopes to make it through to January.
What she needs now - in common with many others - is good weather, no more shocks, no second wave and no mixed messages from government Ministers.
I went for a haircut to my usual barbers, who were super-compliant - appointments only, no waiting indoors, barbers in visors, disposable aprons for customers, etc. Just up the road a rival place wseemed to be completely ignoring the precautions - barbers with no protective equipment, people sitting inside awaiting their turn, usual aprons for customers. It would be nice to think that my place will attract more custom as a result rather than less. In the long run I suppose that would happen by, to put it delicately, natural selection, but survival of small businesses is a matter of the short run.
The photos need updating to show my wonderful flower arrangements!
Lots of magnificent walks nearby, biking of all types, horse-riding and long lovely sandy beaches.
You would all be very welcome!
In Daughter’s view, the reasons for the safety precautions are (1) to reassure customers so that they feel happy about coming; (2) to protect staff who are the heart of any hospitality businesses; (3) for the business’s reputation; and (4) to protect me.0 -
I think it would be a “Let Planck”.Malmesbury said:
We are here at the dawn of a new collective term - a "Let Plank" of Amateur Scientists.Fysics_Teacher said:
Can I ask what a “let plank” is? Apologies if it’s a typo, but I’ve no idea what you were trying to say.Alistair said:
A let plank of the Covid Data Wranglers world view is that this is all a fuss over nothing.Malmesbury said:
I'm not sure how you could explain to the individuals in the graph below, that COVID19 is a scamMightyAlex said:
A scam?contrarian said:
Its interesting because I think the opposite of this guy.Casino_Royale said:
I just hope Biden survives the next 6 weeks.Ratters said:Regarding the US elections, I note that the direction of travel of US deaths has turned over the last week (7 day average increasing). This follows a sharp rise in cases across a large number of states, including must-win states for Trump like Florida and Texas. Yet places are still mostly open/opening (Disneyland Florida opening this weekend) and mask wearing isn't good.
My initial conclusions are:
1) R will remain above 1 and cases will continue to rise until much more restrictive measures are brought in (e.g. closing bars not enough if everywhere else is open).
2) Hospitalisations and deaths will continue to rise until around 3 weeks after cases peak. Given the rate of increase in cases over the last month, I fear US deaths per day will soon rival their earlier peak (I'd guess by mid-August at the latest).
3) Eventually, this will force governors in the most affected states to impose new lockdowns or much tighter restrictions. Even a de facto lockdown (due to people being scared) will result in a fresh economic hit.
4) A second wave of deaths and job losses in the US, while Europe and east Asia has the virus still under relative control and have improving economies, will be disastrous for the GOP.
From a betting perspective, relative long-shot wins for the Democrats should offer value, particularly in the states most affected by this wave.
I think America will revive strongly while the rest of us languish. This is because the government there seems to have the courage to accept that life must go on, Corona or no corona. The courage to accept there is no such thing as a 'new normal'. The courage to tough out a tsumani of bad headlines in the opposition press to press on with economic revival.
The top rated answer on the latest terror story from SAGE in the Mail about a horrible winter Corona epidemic goes along the lines of people are starting to realise that this corona pandemic is a scam.
Back at the beginning of the epidemic they were saying we wouldn't even see the number of deaths of an average flu season.
I believe the new claim is that in a years time the overall deaths for the year will look unremarkable.
This then somehow proves the lockdown had no effect or something.
Bit like a school of Lawyers.0 -
They don't make 'em like this any more. On the whole probably for the best, but still..
https://twitter.com/TerraceImages/status/1281872441854263297?s=201 -
To be fair, this hasn't been announced. I guess this is in preparation for a change in the guidance. The question is, will anything change with respect of public transport?Pulpstar said:
The official guidance needs to be changed to have a choice to work from home or some such first, right now it is MUST work from home if can.... What he's asking goes outside the guidance which is issued by errm.. the Gov't he heads.tlg86 said:https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8511629/Boris-desks-offices-killing-town-centres-warns-PM.html
Government sources say Mr Johnson told Whitehall chiefs this week to set an example by starting to return civil servants to their desks. On a conference call with 200 senior civil servants, he said it was ‘more efficient and productive’ than working from home.
I assume this was done on here last night. I predict a shitstorm of epic proportions if this is true.
This is one aspect of the GOv't I really don't like. It seems to have an official idea of Gov't (Official guidance and so forth) and then Boris comes out with something completely different/contradictory.0 -
Very small or very large?Fysics_Teacher said:
I think it would be a “Let Planck”.Malmesbury said:
We are here at the dawn of a new collective term - a "Let Plank" of Amateur Scientists.Fysics_Teacher said:
Can I ask what a “let plank” is? Apologies if it’s a typo, but I’ve no idea what you were trying to say.Alistair said:
A let plank of the Covid Data Wranglers world view is that this is all a fuss over nothing.Malmesbury said:
I'm not sure how you could explain to the individuals in the graph below, that COVID19 is a scamMightyAlex said:
A scam?contrarian said:
Its interesting because I think the opposite of this guy.Casino_Royale said:
I just hope Biden survives the next 6 weeks.Ratters said:Regarding the US elections, I note that the direction of travel of US deaths has turned over the last week (7 day average increasing). This follows a sharp rise in cases across a large number of states, including must-win states for Trump like Florida and Texas. Yet places are still mostly open/opening (Disneyland Florida opening this weekend) and mask wearing isn't good.
My initial conclusions are:
1) R will remain above 1 and cases will continue to rise until much more restrictive measures are brought in (e.g. closing bars not enough if everywhere else is open).
2) Hospitalisations and deaths will continue to rise until around 3 weeks after cases peak. Given the rate of increase in cases over the last month, I fear US deaths per day will soon rival their earlier peak (I'd guess by mid-August at the latest).
3) Eventually, this will force governors in the most affected states to impose new lockdowns or much tighter restrictions. Even a de facto lockdown (due to people being scared) will result in a fresh economic hit.
4) A second wave of deaths and job losses in the US, while Europe and east Asia has the virus still under relative control and have improving economies, will be disastrous for the GOP.
From a betting perspective, relative long-shot wins for the Democrats should offer value, particularly in the states most affected by this wave.
I think America will revive strongly while the rest of us languish. This is because the government there seems to have the courage to accept that life must go on, Corona or no corona. The courage to accept there is no such thing as a 'new normal'. The courage to tough out a tsumani of bad headlines in the opposition press to press on with economic revival.
The top rated answer on the latest terror story from SAGE in the Mail about a horrible winter Corona epidemic goes along the lines of people are starting to realise that this corona pandemic is a scam.
Back at the beginning of the epidemic they were saying we wouldn't even see the number of deaths of an average flu season.
I believe the new claim is that in a years time the overall deaths for the year will look unremarkable.
This then somehow proves the lockdown had no effect or something.
Bit like a school of Lawyers.0 -
Best of luck. Has she claimed the grants for hospitality businesses, and the self-employed?Cyclefree said:
The Punchbowl Inn, The Green, Cumbria LA18 5HB - https://en-gb.facebook.com/Punchbowl.TheGreen/NickPalmer said:
That sounds hopeful on the whole - we're all cheering her on! Where is it exactly? - perhaps some on the site will be nearby and can have a drink or a meal there.Cyclefree said:
Morning OKC.OldKingCole said:Good morning ladies and gentlemen. Has summer returned?
Summer has started returning here in South Lakeland though we are not quite there yet. Last week was awful with rain and mist .
Anyway, Daughter has reopened pub and restaurant. She has made it look as nice as possible with redecoration, lots of lovely plants outside, 2 marquee areas with fairy lights and lots of lovely cushioned seating inside so that they have the look of a Moroccan-style gazebo.
Face visors for customer-facing staff and hand sanitizers etc but she’s avoided putting yellow strips everywhere so the inside looks welcoming and charming.
The first day was a nightmare - busy - and serving everyone at table slows everything down. Plus some of the locals were terrible at social distancing etc. A bit of a nightmare this: she wants locals to come in and enjoy themselves but equally she can not afford for them to break the guidance because if the virus is caught she has to close the pub down and reputationally it is a disaster.
Not all pubs have reopened. Some of those which have have taken a distinctly relaxed approach to the guidance. One even had recorded music on so loud that people were forced to shout to make themselves heard, which is bloody stupid and a risk.
Trade has been ok - tourists are coming in - and she earned some kudos with one lot on Tuesday when she does not normally do food by opening the kitchen for them as they had nowhere else to go. It’s not high summer-style busy but it’s ok so far. It needs to increase though to earn enough to see her through the autumn and winter. Takeaways are continuing and she’s focusing more and more on food to try and make up for the loss of the standing-at-the-bar trade.
The holiday lets are filling up. But hotels elsewhere are reporting very slow trade. It is very mixed. Not all the breweries have reopened fully either.
Very early days. Very stressful and tiring for her and she is very up and down in her mood and optimism. But she is giving it her best shot and she is learning in these last few weeks what most people pay a fortune to learn on an MBA course.
As to Sunak’s package: a mixed reception. Like most small places she’s on the fixed rate VAT scheme so the VAT cut means nothing and it does not help those pubs which do not do food. (She has assumed for a while that Tim Wetherspoon is the only publican who has Boris’s ear.) The £10 voucher is helpful but would ideally be best September to November, when trade is quiet. Most places around here are shut on a Monday. The £1000 grant per furloughed employee is very helpful. So she hopes to make it through to January.
What she needs now - in common with many others - is good weather, no more shocks, no second wave and no mixed messages from government Ministers.
I went for a haircut to my usual barbers, who were super-compliant - appointments only, no waiting indoors, barbers in visors, disposable aprons for customers, etc. Just up the road a rival place wseemed to be completely ignoring the precautions - barbers with no protective equipment, people sitting inside awaiting their turn, usual aprons for customers. It would be nice to think that my place will attract more custom as a result rather than less. In the long run I suppose that would happen by, to put it delicately, natural selection, but survival of small businesses is a matter of the short run.
The photos need updating to show my wonderful flower arrangements!
Lots of magnificent walks nearby, biking of all types, horse-riding and long lovely sandy beaches.
You would all be very welcome!
In Daughter’s view, the reasons for the safety precautions are (1) to reassure customers so that they feel happy about coming; (2) to protect staff who are the heart of any hospitality businesses; (3) for the business’s reputation; and (4) to protect me.
That's a nice-looking menu, too.0 -
Malmesbury said:
Very small or very large?Fysics_Teacher said:
I think it would be a “Let Planck”.Malmesbury said:
We are here at the dawn of a new collective term - a "Let Plank" of Amateur Scientists.Fysics_Teacher said:
Can I ask what a “let plank” is? Apologies if it’s a typo, but I’ve no idea what you were trying to say.Alistair said:
A let plank of the Covid Data Wranglers world view is that this is all a fuss over nothing.Malmesbury said:
I'm not sure how you could explain to the individuals in the graph below, that COVID19 is a scamMightyAlex said:
A scam?contrarian said:
Its interesting because I think the opposite of this guy.Casino_Royale said:
I just hope Biden survives the next 6 weeks.Ratters said:Regarding the US elections, I note that the direction of travel of US deaths has turned over the last week (7 day average increasing). This follows a sharp rise in cases across a large number of states, including must-win states for Trump like Florida and Texas. Yet places are still mostly open/opening (Disneyland Florida opening this weekend) and mask wearing isn't good.
My initial conclusions are:
1) R will remain above 1 and cases will continue to rise until much more restrictive measures are brought in (e.g. closing bars not enough if everywhere else is open).
2) Hospitalisations and deaths will continue to rise until around 3 weeks after cases peak. Given the rate of increase in cases over the last month, I fear US deaths per day will soon rival their earlier peak (I'd guess by mid-August at the latest).
3) Eventually, this will force governors in the most affected states to impose new lockdowns or much tighter restrictions. Even a de facto lockdown (due to people being scared) will result in a fresh economic hit.
4) A second wave of deaths and job losses in the US, while Europe and east Asia has the virus still under relative control and have improving economies, will be disastrous for the GOP.
From a betting perspective, relative long-shot wins for the Democrats should offer value, particularly in the states most affected by this wave.
I think America will revive strongly while the rest of us languish. This is because the government there seems to have the courage to accept that life must go on, Corona or no corona. The courage to accept there is no such thing as a 'new normal'. The courage to tough out a tsumani of bad headlines in the opposition press to press on with economic revival.
The top rated answer on the latest terror story from SAGE in the Mail about a horrible winter Corona epidemic goes along the lines of people are starting to realise that this corona pandemic is a scam.
Back at the beginning of the epidemic they were saying we wouldn't even see the number of deaths of an average flu season.
I believe the new claim is that in a years time the overall deaths for the year will look unremarkable.
This then somehow proves the lockdown had no effect or something.
Bit like a school of Lawyers.
There is some uncertainty on that.Malmesbury said:
Very small or very large?Fysics_Teacher said:
I think it would be a “Let Planck”.Malmesbury said:
We are here at the dawn of a new collective term - a "Let Plank" of Amateur Scientists.Fysics_Teacher said:
Can I ask what a “let plank” is? Apologies if it’s a typo, but I’ve no idea what you were trying to say.Alistair said:
A let plank of the Covid Data Wranglers world view is that this is all a fuss over nothing.Malmesbury said:
I'm not sure how you could explain to the individuals in the graph below, that COVID19 is a scamMightyAlex said:
A scam?contrarian said:
Its interesting because I think the opposite of this guy.Casino_Royale said:
I just hope Biden survives the next 6 weeks.Ratters said:Regarding the US elections, I note that the direction of travel of US deaths has turned over the last week (7 day average increasing). This follows a sharp rise in cases across a large number of states, including must-win states for Trump like Florida and Texas. Yet places are still mostly open/opening (Disneyland Florida opening this weekend) and mask wearing isn't good.
My initial conclusions are:
1) R will remain above 1 and cases will continue to rise until much more restrictive measures are brought in (e.g. closing bars not enough if everywhere else is open).
2) Hospitalisations and deaths will continue to rise until around 3 weeks after cases peak. Given the rate of increase in cases over the last month, I fear US deaths per day will soon rival their earlier peak (I'd guess by mid-August at the latest).
3) Eventually, this will force governors in the most affected states to impose new lockdowns or much tighter restrictions. Even a de facto lockdown (due to people being scared) will result in a fresh economic hit.
4) A second wave of deaths and job losses in the US, while Europe and east Asia has the virus still under relative control and have improving economies, will be disastrous for the GOP.
From a betting perspective, relative long-shot wins for the Democrats should offer value, particularly in the states most affected by this wave.
I think America will revive strongly while the rest of us languish. This is because the government there seems to have the courage to accept that life must go on, Corona or no corona. The courage to accept there is no such thing as a 'new normal'. The courage to tough out a tsumani of bad headlines in the opposition press to press on with economic revival.
The top rated answer on the latest terror story from SAGE in the Mail about a horrible winter Corona epidemic goes along the lines of people are starting to realise that this corona pandemic is a scam.
Back at the beginning of the epidemic they were saying we wouldn't even see the number of deaths of an average flu season.
I believe the new claim is that in a years time the overall deaths for the year will look unremarkable.
This then somehow proves the lockdown had no effect or something.
Bit like a school of Lawyers.
0 -
Yes. They’ve just about kept the business afloat. It is still touch and go. However hard any business owner works the odds are against them at the moment.Sean_F said:
Best of luck. Has she claimed the grants for hospitality businesses, and the self-employed?Cyclefree said:
The Punchbowl Inn, The Green, Cumbria LA18 5HB - https://en-gb.facebook.com/Punchbowl.TheGreen/NickPalmer said:
That sounds hopeful on the whole - we're all cheering her on! Where is it exactly? - perhaps some on the site will be nearby and can have a drink or a meal there.Cyclefree said:
Morning OKC.OldKingCole said:Good morning ladies and gentlemen. Has summer returned?
Summer has started returning here in South Lakeland though we are not quite there yet. Last week was awful with rain and mist .
Anyway, Daughter has reopened pub and restaurant. She has made it look as nice as possible with redecoration, lots of lovely plants outside, 2 marquee areas with fairy lights and lots of lovely cushioned seating inside so that they have the look of a Moroccan-style gazebo.
Face visors for customer-facing staff and hand sanitizers etc but she’s avoided putting yellow strips everywhere so the inside looks welcoming and charming.
The first day was a nightmare - busy - and serving everyone at table slows everything down. Plus some of the locals were terrible at social distancing etc. A bit of a nightmare this: she wants locals to come in and enjoy themselves but equally she can not afford for them to break the guidance because if the virus is caught she has to close the pub down and reputationally it is a disaster.
Not all pubs have reopened. Some of those which have have taken a distinctly relaxed approach to the guidance. One even had recorded music on so loud that people were forced to shout to make themselves heard, which is bloody stupid and a risk.
Trade has been ok - tourists are coming in - and she earned some kudos with one lot on Tuesday when she does not normally do food by opening the kitchen for them as they had nowhere else to go. It’s not high summer-style busy but it’s ok so far. It needs to increase though to earn enough to see her through the autumn and winter. Takeaways are continuing and she’s focusing more and more on food to try and make up for the loss of the standing-at-the-bar trade.
The holiday lets are filling up. But hotels elsewhere are reporting very slow trade. It is very mixed. Not all the breweries have reopened fully either.
Very early days. Very stressful and tiring for her and she is very up and down in her mood and optimism. But she is giving it her best shot and she is learning in these last few weeks what most people pay a fortune to learn on an MBA course.
As to Sunak’s package: a mixed reception. Like most small places she’s on the fixed rate VAT scheme so the VAT cut means nothing and it does not help those pubs which do not do food. (She has assumed for a while that Tim Wetherspoon is the only publican who has Boris’s ear.) The £10 voucher is helpful but would ideally be best September to November, when trade is quiet. Most places around here are shut on a Monday. The £1000 grant per furloughed employee is very helpful. So she hopes to make it through to January.
What she needs now - in common with many others - is good weather, no more shocks, no second wave and no mixed messages from government Ministers.
I went for a haircut to my usual barbers, who were super-compliant - appointments only, no waiting indoors, barbers in visors, disposable aprons for customers, etc. Just up the road a rival place wseemed to be completely ignoring the precautions - barbers with no protective equipment, people sitting inside awaiting their turn, usual aprons for customers. It would be nice to think that my place will attract more custom as a result rather than less. In the long run I suppose that would happen by, to put it delicately, natural selection, but survival of small businesses is a matter of the short run.
The photos need updating to show my wonderful flower arrangements!
Lots of magnificent walks nearby, biking of all types, horse-riding and long lovely sandy beaches.
You would all be very welcome!
In Daughter’s view, the reasons for the safety precautions are (1) to reassure customers so that they feel happy about coming; (2) to protect staff who are the heart of any hospitality businesses; (3) for the business’s reputation; and (4) to protect me.
If you have local businesses you want to keep, use them. Or you will lose them.2 -
Sadly, I think my Plank scale accelerator (proposed for the garden shed) will be turned down by the local planning authority....Fysics_Teacher said:Malmesbury said:
Very small or very large?Fysics_Teacher said:
I think it would be a “Let Planck”.Malmesbury said:
We are here at the dawn of a new collective term - a "Let Plank" of Amateur Scientists.Fysics_Teacher said:
Can I ask what a “let plank” is? Apologies if it’s a typo, but I’ve no idea what you were trying to say.Alistair said:
A let plank of the Covid Data Wranglers world view is that this is all a fuss over nothing.Malmesbury said:
I'm not sure how you could explain to the individuals in the graph below, that COVID19 is a scamMightyAlex said:
A scam?contrarian said:
Its interesting because I think the opposite of this guy.Casino_Royale said:
I just hope Biden survives the next 6 weeks.Ratters said:Regarding the US elections, I note that the direction of travel of US deaths has turned over the last week (7 day average increasing). This follows a sharp rise in cases across a large number of states, including must-win states for Trump like Florida and Texas. Yet places are still mostly open/opening (Disneyland Florida opening this weekend) and mask wearing isn't good.
My initial conclusions are:
1) R will remain above 1 and cases will continue to rise until much more restrictive measures are brought in (e.g. closing bars not enough if everywhere else is open).
2) Hospitalisations and deaths will continue to rise until around 3 weeks after cases peak. Given the rate of increase in cases over the last month, I fear US deaths per day will soon rival their earlier peak (I'd guess by mid-August at the latest).
3) Eventually, this will force governors in the most affected states to impose new lockdowns or much tighter restrictions. Even a de facto lockdown (due to people being scared) will result in a fresh economic hit.
4) A second wave of deaths and job losses in the US, while Europe and east Asia has the virus still under relative control and have improving economies, will be disastrous for the GOP.
From a betting perspective, relative long-shot wins for the Democrats should offer value, particularly in the states most affected by this wave.
I think America will revive strongly while the rest of us languish. This is because the government there seems to have the courage to accept that life must go on, Corona or no corona. The courage to accept there is no such thing as a 'new normal'. The courage to tough out a tsumani of bad headlines in the opposition press to press on with economic revival.
The top rated answer on the latest terror story from SAGE in the Mail about a horrible winter Corona epidemic goes along the lines of people are starting to realise that this corona pandemic is a scam.
Back at the beginning of the epidemic they were saying we wouldn't even see the number of deaths of an average flu season.
I believe the new claim is that in a years time the overall deaths for the year will look unremarkable.
This then somehow proves the lockdown had no effect or something.
Bit like a school of Lawyers.
There is some uncertainty on that.Malmesbury said:
Very small or very large?Fysics_Teacher said:
I think it would be a “Let Planck”.Malmesbury said:
We are here at the dawn of a new collective term - a "Let Plank" of Amateur Scientists.Fysics_Teacher said:
Can I ask what a “let plank” is? Apologies if it’s a typo, but I’ve no idea what you were trying to say.Alistair said:
A let plank of the Covid Data Wranglers world view is that this is all a fuss over nothing.Malmesbury said:
I'm not sure how you could explain to the individuals in the graph below, that COVID19 is a scamMightyAlex said:
A scam?contrarian said:
Its interesting because I think the opposite of this guy.Casino_Royale said:
I just hope Biden survives the next 6 weeks.Ratters said:Regarding the US elections, I note that the direction of travel of US deaths has turned over the last week (7 day average increasing). This follows a sharp rise in cases across a large number of states, including must-win states for Trump like Florida and Texas. Yet places are still mostly open/opening (Disneyland Florida opening this weekend) and mask wearing isn't good.
My initial conclusions are:
1) R will remain above 1 and cases will continue to rise until much more restrictive measures are brought in (e.g. closing bars not enough if everywhere else is open).
2) Hospitalisations and deaths will continue to rise until around 3 weeks after cases peak. Given the rate of increase in cases over the last month, I fear US deaths per day will soon rival their earlier peak (I'd guess by mid-August at the latest).
3) Eventually, this will force governors in the most affected states to impose new lockdowns or much tighter restrictions. Even a de facto lockdown (due to people being scared) will result in a fresh economic hit.
4) A second wave of deaths and job losses in the US, while Europe and east Asia has the virus still under relative control and have improving economies, will be disastrous for the GOP.
From a betting perspective, relative long-shot wins for the Democrats should offer value, particularly in the states most affected by this wave.
I think America will revive strongly while the rest of us languish. This is because the government there seems to have the courage to accept that life must go on, Corona or no corona. The courage to accept there is no such thing as a 'new normal'. The courage to tough out a tsumani of bad headlines in the opposition press to press on with economic revival.
The top rated answer on the latest terror story from SAGE in the Mail about a horrible winter Corona epidemic goes along the lines of people are starting to realise that this corona pandemic is a scam.
Back at the beginning of the epidemic they were saying we wouldn't even see the number of deaths of an average flu season.
I believe the new claim is that in a years time the overall deaths for the year will look unremarkable.
This then somehow proves the lockdown had no effect or something.
Bit like a school of Lawyers.0 -
At the moment, I'm making a point of going out for sandwiches each lunchtime, and buying takeaways.Cyclefree said:
Yes. They’ve just about kept the business afloat. It is still touch and go. However hard any business owner works the odds are against them at the moment.Sean_F said:
Best of luck. Has she claimed the grants for hospitality businesses, and the self-employed?Cyclefree said:
The Punchbowl Inn, The Green, Cumbria LA18 5HB - https://en-gb.facebook.com/Punchbowl.TheGreen/NickPalmer said:
That sounds hopeful on the whole - we're all cheering her on! Where is it exactly? - perhaps some on the site will be nearby and can have a drink or a meal there.Cyclefree said:
Morning OKC.OldKingCole said:Good morning ladies and gentlemen. Has summer returned?
Summer has started returning here in South Lakeland though we are not quite there yet. Last week was awful with rain and mist .
Anyway, Daughter has reopened pub and restaurant. She has made it look as nice as possible with redecoration, lots of lovely plants outside, 2 marquee areas with fairy lights and lots of lovely cushioned seating inside so that they have the look of a Moroccan-style gazebo.
Face visors for customer-facing staff and hand sanitizers etc but she’s avoided putting yellow strips everywhere so the inside looks welcoming and charming.
The first day was a nightmare - busy - and serving everyone at table slows everything down. Plus some of the locals were terrible at social distancing etc. A bit of a nightmare this: she wants locals to come in and enjoy themselves but equally she can not afford for them to break the guidance because if the virus is caught she has to close the pub down and reputationally it is a disaster.
Not all pubs have reopened. Some of those which have have taken a distinctly relaxed approach to the guidance. One even had recorded music on so loud that people were forced to shout to make themselves heard, which is bloody stupid and a risk.
Trade has been ok - tourists are coming in - and she earned some kudos with one lot on Tuesday when she does not normally do food by opening the kitchen for them as they had nowhere else to go. It’s not high summer-style busy but it’s ok so far. It needs to increase though to earn enough to see her through the autumn and winter. Takeaways are continuing and she’s focusing more and more on food to try and make up for the loss of the standing-at-the-bar trade.
The holiday lets are filling up. But hotels elsewhere are reporting very slow trade. It is very mixed. Not all the breweries have reopened fully either.
Very early days. Very stressful and tiring for her and she is very up and down in her mood and optimism. But she is giving it her best shot and she is learning in these last few weeks what most people pay a fortune to learn on an MBA course.
As to Sunak’s package: a mixed reception. Like most small places she’s on the fixed rate VAT scheme so the VAT cut means nothing and it does not help those pubs which do not do food. (She has assumed for a while that Tim Wetherspoon is the only publican who has Boris’s ear.) The £10 voucher is helpful but would ideally be best September to November, when trade is quiet. Most places around here are shut on a Monday. The £1000 grant per furloughed employee is very helpful. So she hopes to make it through to January.
What she needs now - in common with many others - is good weather, no more shocks, no second wave and no mixed messages from government Ministers.
I went for a haircut to my usual barbers, who were super-compliant - appointments only, no waiting indoors, barbers in visors, disposable aprons for customers, etc. Just up the road a rival place wseemed to be completely ignoring the precautions - barbers with no protective equipment, people sitting inside awaiting their turn, usual aprons for customers. It would be nice to think that my place will attract more custom as a result rather than less. In the long run I suppose that would happen by, to put it delicately, natural selection, but survival of small businesses is a matter of the short run.
The photos need updating to show my wonderful flower arrangements!
Lots of magnificent walks nearby, biking of all types, horse-riding and long lovely sandy beaches.
You would all be very welcome!
In Daughter’s view, the reasons for the safety precautions are (1) to reassure customers so that they feel happy about coming; (2) to protect staff who are the heart of any hospitality businesses; (3) for the business’s reputation; and (4) to protect me.
If you have local businesses you want to keep, use them. Or you will lose them.0 -
Wise words.Cyclefree said:
Yes. They’ve just about kept the business afloat. It is still touch and go. However hard any business owner works the odds are against them at the moment.Sean_F said:
Best of luck. Has she claimed the grants for hospitality businesses, and the self-employed?Cyclefree said:
The Punchbowl Inn, The Green, Cumbria LA18 5HB - https://en-gb.facebook.com/Punchbowl.TheGreen/NickPalmer said:
That sounds hopeful on the whole - we're all cheering her on! Where is it exactly? - perhaps some on the site will be nearby and can have a drink or a meal there.Cyclefree said:
Morning OKC.OldKingCole said:Good morning ladies and gentlemen. Has summer returned?
Summer has started returning here in South Lakeland though we are not quite there yet. Last week was awful with rain and mist .
Anyway, Daughter has reopened pub and restaurant. She has made it look as nice as possible with redecoration, lots of lovely plants outside, 2 marquee areas with fairy lights and lots of lovely cushioned seating inside so that they have the look of a Moroccan-style gazebo.
Face visors for customer-facing staff and hand sanitizers etc but she’s avoided putting yellow strips everywhere so the inside looks welcoming and charming.
The first day was a nightmare - busy - and serving everyone at table slows everything down. Plus some of the locals were terrible at social distancing etc. A bit of a nightmare this: she wants locals to come in and enjoy themselves but equally she can not afford for them to break the guidance because if the virus is caught she has to close the pub down and reputationally it is a disaster.
Not all pubs have reopened. Some of those which have have taken a distinctly relaxed approach to the guidance. One even had recorded music on so loud that people were forced to shout to make themselves heard, which is bloody stupid and a risk.
Trade has been ok - tourists are coming in - and she earned some kudos with one lot on Tuesday when she does not normally do food by opening the kitchen for them as they had nowhere else to go. It’s not high summer-style busy but it’s ok so far. It needs to increase though to earn enough to see her through the autumn and winter. Takeaways are continuing and she’s focusing more and more on food to try and make up for the loss of the standing-at-the-bar trade.
The holiday lets are filling up. But hotels elsewhere are reporting very slow trade. It is very mixed. Not all the breweries have reopened fully either.
Very early days. Very stressful and tiring for her and she is very up and down in her mood and optimism. But she is giving it her best shot and she is learning in these last few weeks what most people pay a fortune to learn on an MBA course.
As to Sunak’s package: a mixed reception. Like most small places she’s on the fixed rate VAT scheme so the VAT cut means nothing and it does not help those pubs which do not do food. (She has assumed for a while that Tim Wetherspoon is the only publican who has Boris’s ear.) The £10 voucher is helpful but would ideally be best September to November, when trade is quiet. Most places around here are shut on a Monday. The £1000 grant per furloughed employee is very helpful. So she hopes to make it through to January.
What she needs now - in common with many others - is good weather, no more shocks, no second wave and no mixed messages from government Ministers.
I went for a haircut to my usual barbers, who were super-compliant - appointments only, no waiting indoors, barbers in visors, disposable aprons for customers, etc. Just up the road a rival place wseemed to be completely ignoring the precautions - barbers with no protective equipment, people sitting inside awaiting their turn, usual aprons for customers. It would be nice to think that my place will attract more custom as a result rather than less. In the long run I suppose that would happen by, to put it delicately, natural selection, but survival of small businesses is a matter of the short run.
The photos need updating to show my wonderful flower arrangements!
Lots of magnificent walks nearby, biking of all types, horse-riding and long lovely sandy beaches.
You would all be very welcome!
In Daughter’s view, the reasons for the safety precautions are (1) to reassure customers so that they feel happy about coming; (2) to protect staff who are the heart of any hospitality businesses; (3) for the business’s reputation; and (4) to protect me.
If you have local businesses you want to keep, use them. Or you will lose them.0 -
With apologies to Harold:Theuniondivvie said:They don't make 'em like this any more. On the whole probably for the best, but still..
https://twitter.com/TerraceImages/status/1281872441854263297?s=20
I saw Jack Charlton in his prime
Another time
another time1 -
No, you raise the money in the markets secured agauinst future subscription revenues (and against the BBC back catalogue, if necessary). The BBC brand and history allows for both to be achieved - especially at a time when there is a lot of money floating around looking for investment opportunities.Casino_Royale said:
But to get the money you have to offer a very attractive service to get the subscribers.SouthamObserver said:
With money you can move very quickly to hire the best creative people.Casino_Royale said:
I agree on the first sentence.SouthamObserver said:As I have argued on here before many time, the BBC should drop the licence fee and seek to compete on the open market as a subscriber-controlled, National Trust-style, organisation that is also able to raise money on the markets. With the brand equity it has, I suspect it would blow most of the competition out of the water - especially if it took control of its back catalogue and was able to decide on which platforms BBC programming appeared.
I'm not sure I'm seeing the evidence at the moment that it'd blow the competition out of the water.
The only example I can think of that does is its natural world programmes.
It's a bit chicken and egg.
The BBC will also have a strong legacy culture (that encourages conformity, not innovation) to contend with too and be handicapped by high unionisation too.
0 -
Boro kick off in a crucial game against Bristol City in a couple of hours’ time. The Riverside will be empty, but it’s still going to be an emotional afternoon.ThomasNashe said:
With apologies to Harold:Theuniondivvie said:They don't make 'em like this any more. On the whole probably for the best, but still..
https://twitter.com/TerraceImages/status/1281872441854263297?s=20
I saw Jack Charlton in his prime
Another time
another time0 -
Just Contrarian being Contrary for the sake of being contrary.Alistair said:
A key plank of the Covid Data Wranglers world view is that this is all a fuss over nothing.Malmesbury said:
I'm not sure how you could explain to the individuals in the graph below, that COVID19 is a scamMightyAlex said:
A scam?contrarian said:
Its interesting because I think the opposite of this guy.Casino_Royale said:
I just hope Biden survives the next 6 weeks.Ratters said:Regarding the US elections, I note that the direction of travel of US deaths has turned over the last week (7 day average increasing). This follows a sharp rise in cases across a large number of states, including must-win states for Trump like Florida and Texas. Yet places are still mostly open/opening (Disneyland Florida opening this weekend) and mask wearing isn't good.
My initial conclusions are:
1) R will remain above 1 and cases will continue to rise until much more restrictive measures are brought in (e.g. closing bars not enough if everywhere else is open).
2) Hospitalisations and deaths will continue to rise until around 3 weeks after cases peak. Given the rate of increase in cases over the last month, I fear US deaths per day will soon rival their earlier peak (I'd guess by mid-August at the latest).
3) Eventually, this will force governors in the most affected states to impose new lockdowns or much tighter restrictions. Even a de facto lockdown (due to people being scared) will result in a fresh economic hit.
4) A second wave of deaths and job losses in the US, while Europe and east Asia has the virus still under relative control and have improving economies, will be disastrous for the GOP.
From a betting perspective, relative long-shot wins for the Democrats should offer value, particularly in the states most affected by this wave.
I think America will revive strongly while the rest of us languish. This is because the government there seems to have the courage to accept that life must go on, Corona or no corona. The courage to accept there is no such thing as a 'new normal'. The courage to tough out a tsumani of bad headlines in the opposition press to press on with economic revival.
The top rated answer on the latest terror story from SAGE in the Mail about a horrible winter Corona epidemic goes along the lines of people are starting to realise that this corona pandemic is a scam.
Back at the beginning of the epidemic they were saying we wouldn't even see the number of deaths of an average flu season.
I believe the new claim is that in a years time the overall deaths for the year will look unremarkable.
This then somehow proves the lockdown had no effect or something.0 -
-
France: Bus driver dies after 'attack over face masks' in BayonneAndy_JS said:
A bus driver has died in France, five days after he was attacked by passengers who reportedly refused to wear face masks, his family says.
Truly the world has gone mad. A simple cheap and effective method to reduce transmission and probably prevent a severe second wave - for which these idiots will blame everyone but themselves! Mask wearing about to be made compusory in Andalucia and I predict widespread support and compliance.1 -
Not necessarily. Just because having them widely available three months ago could also have helped doesn't mean they won't be helpful now, especially if they can prevent a nightmarish Covid / flu tag team from taking off in the winter. No one likes masks, but if it means we never have to lock down again until a vaccine arrives, it seems a reasonable trade-off.Andy_JS said:6 -
What with that and heading those old heavy footballs, you can see why he only made it to 85Theuniondivvie said:They don't make 'em like this any more. On the whole probably for the best, but still..
https://twitter.com/TerraceImages/status/1281872441854263297?s=200 -
Bale and Ozil on £1m a week to do this while people starve to death in Africa and the subcontinent
0 -
A different view about WFH
Comunidad de Madrid is already developing a regulatory framework for its public employees to join - always voluntarily - telework formulas when normality recovers after COVID-19, once the health crisis has shown that it can be done and that It works well. This was stated by the Minister of Finance and Public Function, Javier Fernández-Lasquetty, in a press conference in which he detailed how teleworking has developed in the administration these months, a formula that "until now is very little present" in the Community of Madrid, but after the "large-scale pilot test" that has had to be carried out as a consequence of the health crisis, the regional government wants to "take advantage of the opportunity" and incorporate this tool "back to normal".2 -
It appears the folk that go on about snowflakes and getting back a bit of Blitz spirit & British spunk think that the inconvenience of wearing a cloth mask for short periods is akin to the Gulag.
https://twitter.com/Hardeep_Matharu/status/1281916366388375559?s=202 -
I believe like a lot of headers of the ball he ended up with dementia. Longevity isn't always a blessing.isam said:
What with that and heading those old heavy footballs, you can see why he only made it to 85Theuniondivvie said:They don't make 'em like this any more. On the whole probably for the best, but still..
https://twitter.com/TerraceImages/status/1281872441854263297?s=200 -
I feel David has overstated the extent of recent Tory dominance in this article.He refers to 'four election wins' yet only 2019 was a substantial win - with 2015 being a narrow majority a fair bit smaller than achieved by Major in 1992. 2010 and 2017 were both Hung Parliaments and in their different ways disappointing results for the Tories. Whilst they have now been in office for over ten years, the Tories have only really been in power for less than three years of that period. For that reason, I do not see it as comparable to 1997 - 2010 or 1979 - 1997.0
-
I saw you wrote what you called a "primer" on twitter, after one poll that showed the Tories doing well, for people who don't understand the finer details of opinion polling and might be inclined to take one poll too seriously...SouthamObserver said:
No, you raise the money in the markets secured agauinst future subscription revenues (and against the BBC back catalogue, if necessary). The BBC brand and history allows for both to be achieved - especially at a time when there is a lot of money floating around looking for investment opportunities.Casino_Royale said:
But to get the money you have to offer a very attractive service to get the subscribers.SouthamObserver said:
With money you can move very quickly to hire the best creative people.Casino_Royale said:
I agree on the first sentence.SouthamObserver said:As I have argued on here before many time, the BBC should drop the licence fee and seek to compete on the open market as a subscriber-controlled, National Trust-style, organisation that is also able to raise money on the markets. With the brand equity it has, I suspect it would blow most of the competition out of the water - especially if it took control of its back catalogue and was able to decide on which platforms BBC programming appeared.
I'm not sure I'm seeing the evidence at the moment that it'd blow the competition out of the water.
The only example I can think of that does is its natural world programmes.
It's a bit chicken and egg.
The BBC will also have a strong legacy culture (that encourages conformity, not innovation) to contend with too and be handicapped by high unionisation too.
I read with interest! In it you said YouGov generally give out the highest scores to the Tories and lowest scores to Labour, but since Starmer took over, the average Labour score has been 35 and so has the average YouGov. YG's range of scores has been 30-38 for Labour, while overall the range is 28-41, so they are pretty reliable really, rather than being some kind of outlier
They have also only given the Tories one of their top ten scores in that time1 -
O/T I don't know what possessed Jonny Depp to bring his libel action against the Sun. This is the Streisand effect dialled up to eleven.
This seems a classic case where, even if he wins, he'll be awarded damages of £5.0 -
Well that’s a first a like for Bluest Blue!BluestBlue said:
Not necessarily. Just because having them widely available three months ago could also have helped doesn't mean they won't be helpful now, especially if they can prevent a nightmarish Covid / flu tag team from taking off in the winter. No one likes masks, but if it means we never have to lock down again until a vaccine arrives, it seems a reasonable trade-off.Andy_JS said:0 -
They used to be an adage on here that 'outliers ' were pretty much what you called the polls you didn't like.isam said:
I saw you wrote what you called a "primer" on twitter, after one poll that showed the Tories doing well, for people who don't understand the finer details of opinion polling and might be inclined to take one poll too seriously...SouthamObserver said:
No, you raise the money in the markets secured agauinst future subscription revenues (and against the BBC back catalogue, if necessary). The BBC brand and history allows for both to be achieved - especially at a time when there is a lot of money floating around looking for investment opportunities.Casino_Royale said:
But to get the money you have to offer a very attractive service to get the subscribers.SouthamObserver said:
With money you can move very quickly to hire the best creative people.Casino_Royale said:
I agree on the first sentence.SouthamObserver said:As I have argued on here before many time, the BBC should drop the licence fee and seek to compete on the open market as a subscriber-controlled, National Trust-style, organisation that is also able to raise money on the markets. With the brand equity it has, I suspect it would blow most of the competition out of the water - especially if it took control of its back catalogue and was able to decide on which platforms BBC programming appeared.
I'm not sure I'm seeing the evidence at the moment that it'd blow the competition out of the water.
The only example I can think of that does is its natural world programmes.
It's a bit chicken and egg.
The BBC will also have a strong legacy culture (that encourages conformity, not innovation) to contend with too and be handicapped by high unionisation too.
I read with interest! In it you said YouGov generally give out the highest scores to the Tories and lowest scores to Labour, but since Starmer took over, the average Labour score has been 35 and so has the average YouGov. YG's range of scores has been 30-38 for Labour, while overall the range is 28-41, so they are pretty reliable really, rather than being some kind of outlier
They have also only given the Tories one of their top ten scores in that time0 -
His son can't have it.Theuniondivvie said:
I believe like a lot of headers of the ball he ended up with dementia. Longevity isn't always a blessing.isam said:
What with that and heading those old heavy footballs, you can see why he only made it to 85Theuniondivvie said:They don't make 'em like this any more. On the whole probably for the best, but still..
https://twitter.com/TerraceImages/status/1281872441854263297?s=20
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/fa-has-no-evidence-to-limit-kids-heading-ball-says-jack-charltons-son-cm5t5n5nl
0 -
Hmm, I want an expert opinion on dementia and its causes, shall I try a geriatrician, neurologist or a pub landlord? It's got me stumped.isam said:
His son can't have it.Theuniondivvie said:
I believe like a lot of headers of the ball he ended up with dementia. Longevity isn't always a blessing.isam said:
What with that and heading those old heavy footballs, you can see why he only made it to 85Theuniondivvie said:They don't make 'em like this any more. On the whole probably for the best, but still..
https://twitter.com/TerraceImages/status/1281872441854263297?s=20
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/fa-has-no-evidence-to-limit-kids-heading-ball-says-jack-charltons-son-cm5t5n5nl0 -
Observations from my trip to the petrol station:
One elderly chap filling up in mask and gloves; nobody else with any PPE, not even disposable gloves.
Saw a bus on the way back with 2 passengers. One masked, one not.
A few pedestrians in town wearing masks.
Lots of traffic heading towards the Dales and the Lakes.
And as soon as I donned my face covering my glasses started to fog up.0 -
Have you been heading footballs?Theuniondivvie said:
Hmm, I want an expert opinion on dementia and its causes, shall I try a geriatrician, neurologist or a pub landlord? It's got me stumped.isam said:
His son can't have it.Theuniondivvie said:
I believe like a lot of headers of the ball he ended up with dementia. Longevity isn't always a blessing.isam said:
What with that and heading those old heavy footballs, you can see why he only made it to 85Theuniondivvie said:They don't make 'em like this any more. On the whole probably for the best, but still..
https://twitter.com/TerraceImages/status/1281872441854263297?s=20
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/fa-has-no-evidence-to-limit-kids-heading-ball-says-jack-charltons-son-cm5t5n5nl0 -
Polling on "taking the knee" in America. Has any been done here?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2020/06/12/poll-finds-majority-americans-are-okay-with-nfl-protests-during-anthem/0 -
Interesting that the so-called culture wars seem to be extending to the wearing of masks.Theuniondivvie said:It appears the folk that go on about snowflakes and getting back a bit of Blitz spirit & British spunk think that the inconvenience of wearing a cloth mask for short periods is akin to the Gulag.
https://twitter.com/Hardeep_Matharu/status/1281916366388375559?s=200 -
Those willing to listen to experts vs those who want to decide for themselves (without any relevant knowledge).Andy_JS said:
Interesting that the so-called culture wars seem to be extending to the wearing of masks.Theuniondivvie said:It appears the folk that go on about snowflakes and getting back a bit of Blitz spirit & British spunk think that the inconvenience of wearing a cloth mask for short periods is akin to the Gulag.
https://twitter.com/Hardeep_Matharu/status/1281916366388375559?s=201 -
You need a metal strip at the top to form it to your nose - available on Amazon for 100 for a few quid.SandyRentool said:Observations from my trip to the petrol station:
One elderly chap filling up in mask and gloves; nobody else with any PPE, not even disposable gloves.
Saw a bus on the way back with 2 passengers. One masked, one not.
A few pedestrians in town wearing masks.
Lots of traffic heading towards the Dales and the Lakes.
And as soon as I donned my face covering my glasses started to fog up.0 -
BluestBlue said:
Not necessarily. Just because having them widely available three months ago could also have helped doesn't mean they won't be helpful now, especially if they can prevent a nightmarish Covid / flu tag team from taking off in the winter. No one likes masks, but if it means we never have to lock down again until a vaccine arrives, it seems a reasonable trade-off.Andy_JS said:
Sensible, but it highlights a problem with Boris's Big Win. A chunk of it is libertarian right, health and safety is always madness. But a chunk isn't. It's the same as the Brexit coalition; is the aim to open up or close down? The miracle of 2016 and 2019 was keeping both types onboard, but it can't go on forever.BluestBlue said:
Not necessarily. Just because having them widely available three months ago could also have helped doesn't mean they won't be helpful now, especially if they can prevent a nightmarish Covid / flu tag team from taking off in the winter. No one likes masks, but if it means we never have to lock down again until a vaccine arrives, it seems a reasonable trade-off.Andy_JS said:1 -
I wonder the crossover between Brexit voters and those who think Corona is all made up0
-
One of the issues with that is the BBC doesn't, ultimately, hold the rights over its brand and other assets.SouthamObserver said:
No, you raise the money in the markets secured agauinst future subscription revenues (and against the BBC back catalogue, if necessary). The BBC brand and history allows for both to be achieved - especially at a time when there is a lot of money floating around looking for investment opportunities.Casino_Royale said:
But to get the money you have to offer a very attractive service to get the subscribers.SouthamObserver said:
With money you can move very quickly to hire the best creative people.Casino_Royale said:
I agree on the first sentence.SouthamObserver said:As I have argued on here before many time, the BBC should drop the licence fee and seek to compete on the open market as a subscriber-controlled, National Trust-style, organisation that is also able to raise money on the markets. With the brand equity it has, I suspect it would blow most of the competition out of the water - especially if it took control of its back catalogue and was able to decide on which platforms BBC programming appeared.
I'm not sure I'm seeing the evidence at the moment that it'd blow the competition out of the water.
The only example I can think of that does is its natural world programmes.
It's a bit chicken and egg.
The BBC will also have a strong legacy culture (that encourages conformity, not innovation) to contend with too and be handicapped by high unionisation too.
It is established under a Royal Charter renewed (normally) every ten years and this will expire, unless renewed, on 31st December 2027. Article 60 of the Charter deals with surrender of the Royal Charter, dissolution and winding up and, after satisfaction of debts, essentially the Secretary of State has control of all the assets.
So, if the BBC were to want to switch to a fundamentally different model, they couldn't just go off and do it - Government would need to agree it. And it's not obvious they would... this is a proposal which does the neat trick of uniting those who support the continuation of a "public service" BBC and are suspicious of private finance, and competitors of the BBC (particularly Sky) who don't want the BBC as what would be a big name in the subscription market, so that's a lot of pressure on any Secretary of State.0 -
Don't think that works with Scottish (SNP) voters who know that SNP might deal with Labour but won't with Tories, so will stick with SNP.No_Offence_Alan said:
If Labour do better in England, that allows them to put the squeeze on the SNP in Scotland. "What's your priority, getting the Tories out or Indyref2?"algarkirk said:
Tend to agree. The Scottish problem is that the better Labour does the more likely is the prospect of the SNP helping to run England and Wales, which tend to move against floaters voting Labour.Fishing said:On topic, I think I agree with most of David H's points. But I'd also echo what others said - because of Brexit, and because the Conservatives did not have a working majority between 2010 and 2019, this feels as much like a first term government as a fourth term government.
Also, it is run by Boris and Dominic Cummings, and they are much better at electioneering than the everyday grind of governing. So it's government by focus group - in effect a permanent election campaign. This makes it difficult for the opposition to attack, but it isn't exactly conducive to tackling the country's many problems, as Mrs Thatcher certainly did.
Finally, Starmer is no Tony Blair. As others have said, he gets some credit for not being Corbyn, particularly amongst the saner metro elites, but he has nothing to say to the former red wall, let alone Scotland. And since Labour already has most of the seats in our big cities, that's a colossal problem for the party.
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We were based in southern Northamptonshire at the time...kle4 said:
You seem to know a lot about it. Where were you or your ancestor 2000 years ago? Buckinghamshire perhaps?Charles said:
More likely to be a temporary survivor of a battle. Debate whether that is “murder” or not - I’d suggest not because it’s more helpful to have a separate wordkle4 said:I demand justice!
An Iron Age skeleton with his hands bound has been discovered by HS2 project archaeologists, who believe he may be a murder victim...
Dr Wood said: "The death of the Wellwick Farm man remains a mystery to us, but there aren't many ways you end up in a bottom of a ditch, face down, with your hands bound.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-533662090 -
They've also forgotten what every Doctor Who fan knows: that every civilian, including babies, had gas masks in the war.Theuniondivvie said:It appears the folk that go on about snowflakes and getting back a bit of Blitz spirit & British spunk think that the inconvenience of wearing a cloth mask for short periods is akin to the Gulag.
twitter.com/Hardeep_Matharu/status/1281916366388375559?s=200 -
Particularly in libel, I'm afraid a lot of claimants go into civil actions looking for "justice" or to pursue a point of principle.Sean_F said:O/T I don't know what possessed Jonny Depp to bring his libel action against the Sun. This is the Streisand effect dialled up to eleven.
This seems a classic case where, even if he wins, he'll be awarded damages of £5.
That's not really what the civil courts provide. If you win, you typically get an amount of money in the form of damages, and if you lose you lose an amount of money in the form of costs (and you can lose while winning if the damages are less than the defendent offered to settle for - which could happen here). Nobody really changes their mind, and people almost never apologise for anything.
So the calculation SHOULD simply be whether the expected financial pay-off outweighs the expected costs (both financial and in terms of the stress of the process). If it doesn't, you should just drop it and get on with your life, however much you think it's "unfair". Far too many people just ignore that.0 -
Extreme libertarians are just endangering themselves and those around them by carrying the philosophy to ridculous extents. It's not a cultural thing - nobody is saying that we should adapt to wearing masks forever - but simply a practical precaution.noneoftheabove said:
Those willing to listen to experts vs those who want to decide for themselves (without any relevant knowledge).Andy_JS said:
Interesting that the so-called culture wars seem to be extending to the wearing of masks.Theuniondivvie said:It appears the folk that go on about snowflakes and getting back a bit of Blitz spirit & British spunk think that the inconvenience of wearing a cloth mask for short periods is akin to the Gulag.
https://twitter.com/Hardeep_Matharu/status/1281916366388375559?s=201 -
Just announced for our nearest beach
We have been forced to close the accesses to the beach of Las Higuericas due to the excess capacity that would prevent keeping the personal security distance.
We are sorry for the inconvenience caused but we are working for the SAFETY OF EVERYONE.
From #PoliciaLocal we ask:
✔️ Common sense.
✔️ Keep the safety distance.
✔️ Pay attention to the indications of # Police, #ProteccionCivil, #Socorristas and #Controllers of beaches.0 -
You can't courageously say unwoke things in a mask - so it's perfectly understandable.Andy_JS said:
Interesting that the so-called culture wars seem to be extending to the wearing of masks.Theuniondivvie said:It appears the folk that go on about snowflakes and getting back a bit of Blitz spirit & British spunk think that the inconvenience of wearing a cloth mask for short periods is akin to the Gulag.
https://twitter.com/Hardeep_Matharu/status/1281916366388375559?s=200 -
I have plenty of libertarian instincts, but I think on the whole they'll forgive the temporary loss involved in wearing masks if it creates the freedom for society and the economy to operate normally. To govern is to choose - there's no point trying to please every single person at every moment, and you can always win them back later if the strategy is seen to have paid off. Libertarianism is also basically selfish - persuade them they'll be saving their own lives and they'll soon see the logicStuartinromford said:BluestBlue said:
Not necessarily. Just because having them widely available three months ago could also have helped doesn't mean they won't be helpful now, especially if they can prevent a nightmarish Covid / flu tag team from taking off in the winter. No one likes masks, but if it means we never have to lock down again until a vaccine arrives, it seems a reasonable trade-off.Andy_JS said:
Sensible, but it highlights a problem with Boris's Big Win. A chunk of it is libertarian right, health and safety is always madness. But a chunk isn't. It's the same as the Brexit coalition; is the aim to open up or close down? The miracle of 2016 and 2019 was keeping both types onboard, but it can't go on forever.BluestBlue said:
Not necessarily. Just because having them widely available three months ago could also have helped doesn't mean they won't be helpful now, especially if they can prevent a nightmarish Covid / flu tag team from taking off in the winter. No one likes masks, but if it means we never have to lock down again until a vaccine arrives, it seems a reasonable trade-off.Andy_JS said:
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It’s a model based estimate applying different assumption on percentage of spend lost to “fraud AND error”contrarian said:https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1308045/rishi-sunak-coronavirus-funding-fraud-cost-latest
its close to GBP5bn actually.
Range of £1.7-7.9bn0 -
Professor Piers Morgan or Professor R. Peston, Phd, FRS, DipSHitTheuniondivvie said:
Hmm, I want an expert opinion on dementia and its causes, shall I try a geriatrician, neurologist or a pub landlord? It's got me stumped.isam said:
His son can't have it.Theuniondivvie said:
I believe like a lot of headers of the ball he ended up with dementia. Longevity isn't always a blessing.isam said:
What with that and heading those old heavy footballs, you can see why he only made it to 85Theuniondivvie said:They don't make 'em like this any more. On the whole probably for the best, but still..
https://twitter.com/TerraceImages/status/1281872441854263297?s=20
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/fa-has-no-evidence-to-limit-kids-heading-ball-says-jack-charltons-son-cm5t5n5nl
Obviously.1 -
Hen's teeth.nichomar said:
Well that’s a first a like for Bluest Blue!BluestBlue said:
Not necessarily. Just because having them widely available three months ago could also have helped doesn't mean they won't be helpful now, especially if they can prevent a nightmarish Covid / flu tag team from taking off in the winter. No one likes masks, but if it means we never have to lock down again until a vaccine arrives, it seems a reasonable trade-off.Andy_JS said:0 -
https://twitter.com/ProjectLincoln/status/1281753225746669570?s=20
The lesson being 'Do what thou wilt shall be the whole of the Law'.1 -
Disputes over wills are just the same.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
Particularly in libel, I'm afraid a lot of claimants go into civil actions looking for "justice" or to pursue a point of principle.Sean_F said:O/T I don't know what possessed Jonny Depp to bring his libel action against the Sun. This is the Streisand effect dialled up to eleven.
This seems a classic case where, even if he wins, he'll be awarded damages of £5.
That's not really what the civil courts provide. If you win, you typically get an amount of money in the form of damages, and if you lose you lose an amount of money in the form of costs (and you can lose while winning if the damages are less than the defendent offered to settle for - which could happen here). Nobody really changes their mind, and people almost never apologise for anything.
So the calculation SHOULD simply be whether the expected financial pay-off outweighs the expected costs (both financial and in terms of the stress of the process). If it doesn't, you should just drop it and get on with your life, however much you think it's "unfair". Far too many people just ignore that.0 -
Biggest loser of the trial seems to be Amber Turd Herd mind.Sean_F said:O/T I don't know what possessed Jonny Depp to bring his libel action against the Sun. This is the Streisand effect dialled up to eleven.
This seems a classic case where, even if he wins, he'll be awarded damages of £5.0 -
That may be enough for Johnny.Pulpstar said:
Biggest loser of the trial seems to be Amber Turd Herd mind.Sean_F said:O/T I don't know what possessed Jonny Depp to bring his libel action against the Sun. This is the Streisand effect dialled up to eleven.
This seems a classic case where, even if he wins, he'll be awarded damages of £5.0 -
Watched The Damned United recently. Very enjoyable. Striking scene where Clough is fussing around making the visitors dressing room spick and span for the visiting Leeds greats. Fresh orange laid out for each - plus a gleaming ash tray!Theuniondivvie said:They don't make 'em like this any more. On the whole probably for the best, but still..
https://twitter.com/TerraceImages/status/1281872441854263297?s=201 -
Thanks. I solved the problem by taking my glasses off.Malmesbury said:
You need a metal strip at the top to form it to your nose - available on Amazon for 100 for a few quid.SandyRentool said:Observations from my trip to the petrol station:
One elderly chap filling up in mask and gloves; nobody else with any PPE, not even disposable gloves.
Saw a bus on the way back with 2 passengers. One masked, one not.
A few pedestrians in town wearing masks.
Lots of traffic heading towards the Dales and the Lakes.
And as soon as I donned my face covering my glasses started to fog up.0
