politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New YouGov poll has the Tories back with a double digit lead

https://twitter.com/lisaocarroll/status/1281676532663160833

Carnyx said:

Black_Rook said:

HYUFD said:

Black_Rook said:

HYUFD said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

Mexicanpete said:

Beibheirli_C said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

SouthamObserver said:

squareroot2 said:

SouthamObserver said:

squareroot2 said:

SouthamObserver said:

Fieldwork mostly done after more Sunak cash dispensing and acres of positive headlines about it, too.

So what.. its a double digit lead. Where is CHB when you need him, predicting crossover v soon.... (was it just for best PM or voting int as well?)

It's MoE on the previous YouGov. The Tory leads are currently in the four to 10 point range. I'll take that right now given where things were in March, especially as there is decent progress from December (4 to 7 points, depending on the pollster).

That may be true , but its TEN points yes 10 points. if you are happy to take that , then bless you... Starmer has had it easy as you like, the Tories have worked him out, it isn't going to be plain sailing for either party.....

I agree. Starmer has to be more than not Jeremy Corbyn. The Tories have a depression and a potential No Deal with the EU to steer us through. Politics is going to be very interesting.

And of course the rest of the EU face a depression and no deal to steer through

It is not going to be pretty for any government

It was good to see Mark Drakeford, Wales FM, resolutely defending the union today and this is consistent with Starmer's support for the union.

Stark contrast with Sturgeon who has been trying to use Wales to attack Westminster

Why oh why isn't the leader of the SNP resolutely defending the union? It's an absolute disgrace, so it is.

She is on her own as far as Wales is concerned

Perhaps because the Scots remember a time where they were not joined at the hip to England? The Welsh have had a few hundred years more to get used to the experience...

There is no real appetite for an Independent Wales. That will change when unfortunately Scotland leave the Union.

Wales voted Leave just like England and more English voters now want an independent England than Welsh voters want an independent Wales anyway

https://twitter.com/dgwbirch/status/1279084991327199234?s=20

Indyref2 will of course be banned for as long as the Tories remain in power

If you read my first post on this subject I stated there is currently no appetite for Welsh Independence, my point was, there will be when Scotland and Northern Ireland have left

And your Boris will ban a referendum before 2024. It will be the Labour government in 2024 that presides over the break up of the union, I believe are notions that will come back to bite you.

There won't be, as I showed England will vote to leave the Union before Wales, so if the Union ends it will be Wales left standing for the Union to the last.

You can think what you want, the Tories will ban indyref2 as per their 2019 manifesto up until 2024 with or without a nationalist Holyrood majority next year, if Starmer wishes to allow an indyref2 after that is up to him but I would not guarantee a Yes vote in that circumstance, especially as he would take the UK back into the single market anyway and offer devomax

Johnson will have so ticked off Scotland by 2024 that Starmer offering 50% off dining out vouchers won't change enough minds. The answer will be yes!

In your view because you are weak and give in to Nats, I never give in to Nats no matter what the cost.

The Scottish people elect an endless succession of Nationalist Governments, the entire purpose of which are to break up the Union. Many, perhaps most, Nat voters also actively detest us.

Why, therefore, are you so desperate not to let them simply go and do their own thing? What is the damned point? Stubbornness?

Yes and they will go on hating us regardless, 45% of Scots at least are Nationalists (and the majority of Yes voting Glasgow) and many of them do hate the English, especially Tory voting English that will not change however much we try and appease them. It is the 55% who voted No in 2014 we need to focus on keeping.

As a Unionist I respect the views of the 55% who voted to stay in the UK in a 'once in a generation' referendum in 2014, Scotland provides a great deal to the UK from oil and renewable energy, to culture, to ancient universities and financial services and whiskey and army regiments and we should do what we can to retain it.

Unfortunately it also complains endlessly and loudly about how shit we are and sends us a large cohort of Nationalist MPs to sit in Parliament which, thanks to the profound uselessness of every UK Government from 1997 onwards, grants them the ability to meddle in an enormous range of our domestic business that no longer directly affects them. That's going to be real fun in another four years if, and this is a serious possibility, we end up with a Labour minority Government puppeteered by Nicola Sturgeon.

The solution to all of this is, of course, to be done with the Union. In an ideal world I'd rather than it wasn't - and maybe if the Blair Government's programme of constitutional arson had actually been thought through properly then things might now be very different - but we are already well past the point at which it was last salvageable. For Britain, asymmetric devolution plus 45% Yes vote = terminal decrepitude.

You, er, do know what Mr Cameron did the morning after indyref 1?

In any case, it was the Unionist MPs of Scotland whjich meddled in "our" domestic business (Logivally enough I suppose), rather than the SNP ones, who espoused a self-denying ordinance (except where it affected the Barnett formula or it had a direct knockon effect on Scotland in some other sense).

The SNP are politicians like all the rest of them. Any "principles" they espouse are liable to be junked the nanosecond they cease to be electorally expedient.

If they find themselves controlling the balance of power come 2024 then they will follow Labour through the voting lobbies 100% of the time, provided that Labour gives them what they want. Which is why it would therefore be better for everyone if Johnson conceded the second referendum after the inevitable SNP landslide next year, and then lost.

It is, of course, precisely because he is afraid of losing (and can use the SNP as a stick with which to beat Starmer in England) that HYUFD is right and Indyref2 won't happen until Labour has the votes to deliver it. And thus we return to the original point. Labour gives the SNP what it wants, the SNP votes through Labour's English legislation.

nichomar said:

kinabalu said:

kyf_100 said:

kinabalu said:

Andy_JS said:

I've never been a fan of these songs so wouldn't be bothered personally.

"BBC Music magazine columnist calls for 'crudely jingoistic' songs Rule, Britannia and Land of Hope and Glory to be scrapped from Last Night of the Proms because they are 'insensitive' in wake of BLM movement"

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8509685/Calls-Rule-Britannia-banned-Night-Proms.html

I've been calling for this for years. Nothing to do with BLM.

Why is our culture and our history something to be ashamed of?

I'm not ashamed of all our history and culture by any means. That Proms stuff I just find a bit embarrassing. I think because it's both tacky AND jingoistic. Maybe the latter is my main problem with it because tacky can ok. I didn't mind Cliff singing at Wimbledon for example. That actually gets better with time. It's aged well.

Singing Britain rules the waves does make us look somewhat silly these days although the song is very stirring

When that song was first written, it was advice 'rule the waves' because we didn't at the time. It was a patriotic but seditious enjoinder to stop fighting land wars (like the war of the French succession) and become a naval power. So maybe we should just remove the 's' again.

isam said:

Obviously it is a very small sample, so no firm conclusions can be drawn, but looking at the Tory leads since Starmer took over, it isn't as though YouGov particularly favour them

Same can be said for the Tory share of the vote.

https://twitter.com/ottocrat/status/1281657123613573120

Black_Rook said:

DjayM said:

There’s also the apparent gamble of keeping the UK out of the EU vaccine programme.............

Who, in their right mind(*) would want to get involved in an EU vaccine programme

(*) Apart from LibDems, Obvs

You do realise that Sod's Law dictates that the EU programme will now be the one that hits the jackpot, don't you?

I don't think it's about hitting the jackpot is it? I think it's about joint procurement once the jackpot has been hit.

isam said:

isam said:

Obviously it is a very small sample, so no firm conclusions can be drawn, but looking at the Tory leads since Starmer took over, it isn't as though YouGov particularly favour them

Same can be said for the Tory share of the vote.

YouGov just seem less swingy than the others. Opinium have had Labour as low as 29 and as high as 40, Kantar had 28 on one occasion. YG's range has been 30-38 with an average of 35 which is, coincidentally, the average of Labour's scores since Sir Keir became their leader.

rottenborough said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/lisaocarroll/status/1281676532663160833

Every so often one gets another reminder of what a bloody stupid idea all this is.

Taking us backwards by 50 years.

Yes, but we have to see the idiocy in practice before we realise our error.

kinabalu said:

kyf_100 said:

kinabalu said:

Andy_JS said:

I've never been a fan of these songs so wouldn't be bothered personally.

"BBC Music magazine columnist calls for 'crudely jingoistic' songs Rule, Britannia and Land of Hope and Glory to be scrapped from Last Night of the Proms because they are 'insensitive' in wake of BLM movement"

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8509685/Calls-Rule-Britannia-banned-Night-Proms.html

I've been calling for this for years. Nothing to do with BLM.

Why is our culture and our history something to be ashamed of?

I'm not ashamed of all our history and culture by any means. That Proms stuff I just find a bit embarrassing. I think because it's both tacky AND jingoistic. Maybe the latter is my main problem with it because tacky can ok. I didn't mind Cliff singing at Wimbledon for example. That actually gets better with time. It's aged well.

Then nobody is forcing you to sing.

I find people singing eng-er-land at football matches a bit tacky and embarrassing, but I understand the people in the stadium at the world cup see it quite differently.It's about being part of a shared history and shared tradition. A sing song. A knees up.

Rule, Britannia and Land of Hope and Glory are, to me, charming if occasionally antiquated parts of our history (does anybody believe that Britannia rules the waves any more? We can barely defend the Falklands). They are not parts of our national psyche to be ashamed of.

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/gregpinelo/status/1281683542045581313

What's the threshold for dementia?

rottenborough said:

MaxPB said:

I also think that permanently WFH is bad for the soul, it limits general interaction with colleagues and friends to specific "fun" days which are prearranged. Honestly, I've made friends for life at my workplace, it wouldn't have been possible without the ability to just go to lunch together or go to the pub after work on Thursday and Friday. A bunch of us went on holiday together last year and had a great time, you couldn't do that without the social aspect of working together and generally being around each other all day.

Again, it might be the industry/level I'm in which is mainly staffed by people in my age bracket with similar interests but I'd definitely miss it if the company decided to ditch the office and just did a WeWork a few times a month. Thankfully I'm not sure it's possible given our new building is just finished.

Post of the week.

I think all this talk of permanently working from home is bonkers.

Some people work just about all the time, or rather are "on call" to their muse 24/7/365. I refer to thinkers, however one wishes to understand the term.

Luckyguy1983 said:

nichomar said:

kinabalu said:

kyf_100 said:

kinabalu said:

Andy_JS said:

I've never been a fan of these songs so wouldn't be bothered personally.

"BBC Music magazine columnist calls for 'crudely jingoistic' songs Rule, Britannia and Land of Hope and Glory to be scrapped from Last Night of the Proms because they are 'insensitive' in wake of BLM movement"

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8509685/Calls-Rule-Britannia-banned-Night-Proms.html

I've been calling for this for years. Nothing to do with BLM.

Why is our culture and our history something to be ashamed of?

I'm not ashamed of all our history and culture by any means. That Proms stuff I just find a bit embarrassing. I think because it's both tacky AND jingoistic. Maybe the latter is my main problem with it because tacky can ok. I didn't mind Cliff singing at Wimbledon for example. That actually gets better with time. It's aged well.

Singing Britain rules the waves does make us look somewhat silly these days although the song is very stirring

When that song was first written, it was advice 'rule the waves' because we didn't at the time. It was a patriotic but seditious enjoinder to stop fighting land wars (like the war of the French succession) and become a naval power. So maybe we should just remove the 's' again.

Written by a Jock as well.

'"predicated on a mixture of adulterated mercantilism, nationalistic anxiety and libertarian fervour"

Plus ça change.

Black_Rook said:

DjayM said:

There’s also the apparent gamble of keeping the UK out of the EU vaccine programme.............

Who, in their right mind(*) would want to get involved in an EU vaccine programme

(*) Apart from LibDems, Obvs

You do realise that Sod's Law dictates that the EU programme will now be the one that hits the jackpot, don't you?

It's a purchasing scheme, not manufacturing or research. It's basically a panic from the EU because there isn't a vaccine from any EU country that is entering the human trial stage so they haven't got a domestic candidate that is going to have a good chance of being in manufacturing before the end of the year. Getting us in the scheme would have given them two probably viable vaccines, one for October delivering and one for January. Right now they are left to being just another buyer of vaccines researched, developed and manufactured elsewhere. There is no need for the UK to take part in the scheme.

https://twitter.com/RexChapman/status/1281239466548527106

MaxPB said:

Black_Rook said:

DjayM said:

There’s also the apparent gamble of keeping the UK out of the EU vaccine programme.............

Who, in their right mind(*) would want to get involved in an EU vaccine programme

(*) Apart from LibDems, Obvs

You do realise that Sod's Law dictates that the EU programme will now be the one that hits the jackpot, don't you?

It's a purchasing scheme, not manufacturing or research. It's basically a panic from the EU because there isn't a vaccine from any EU country that is entering the human trial stage so they haven't got a domestic candidate that is going to have a good chance of being in manufacturing before the end of the year. Getting us in the scheme would have given them two probably viable vaccines, one for October delivering and one for January. Right now they are left to being just another buyer of vaccines researched, developed and manufactured elsewhere. There is no need for the UK to take part in the scheme.

Hopefully you're correct. I think I'm just in a glass half empty (well, glass pretty much drained) sort of a mood tonight.

nichomar said:

kinabalu said:

kyf_100 said:

kinabalu said:

Andy_JS said:

I've never been a fan of these songs so wouldn't be bothered personally.

"BBC Music magazine columnist calls for 'crudely jingoistic' songs Rule, Britannia and Land of Hope and Glory to be scrapped from Last Night of the Proms because they are 'insensitive' in wake of BLM movement"

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8509685/Calls-Rule-Britannia-banned-Night-Proms.html

I've been calling for this for years. Nothing to do with BLM.

Why is our culture and our history something to be ashamed of?

I'm not ashamed of all our history and culture by any means. That Proms stuff I just find a bit embarrassing. I think because it's both tacky AND jingoistic. Maybe the latter is my main problem with it because tacky can ok. I didn't mind Cliff singing at Wimbledon for example. That actually gets better with time. It's aged well.

Singing Britain rules the waves does make us look somewhat silly these days although the song is very stirring

It has a certain presence and many people do seem to enjoy belting it out.

I'd need paying though.

kinabalu said:

Black_Rook said:

MaxPB said:

Black_Rook said:

DjayM said:

There’s also the apparent gamble of keeping the UK out of the EU vaccine programme.............

Who, in their right mind(*) would want to get involved in an EU vaccine programme

(*) Apart from LibDems, Obvs

You do realise that Sod's Law dictates that the EU programme will now be the one that hits the jackpot, don't you?

It's a purchasing scheme, not manufacturing or research. It's basically a panic from the EU because there isn't a vaccine from any EU country that is entering the human trial stage so they haven't got a domestic candidate that is going to have a good chance of being in manufacturing before the end of the year. Getting us in the scheme would have given them two probably viable vaccines, one for October delivering and one for January. Right now they are left to being just another buyer of vaccines researched, developed and manufactured elsewhere. There is no need for the UK to take part in the scheme.

Hopefully you're correct. I think I'm just in a glass half empty (well, glass pretty much drained) sort of a mood tonight.

You're ALWAYS in a glass half empty mood. Total gloompot.

Me too. Damn: it's getting darker earlier.

Black_Rook said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Black_Rook said:

DjayM said:

There’s also the apparent gamble of keeping the UK out of the EU vaccine programme.............

Who, in their right mind(*) would want to get involved in an EU vaccine programme

(*) Apart from LibDems, Obvs

You do realise that Sod's Law dictates that the EU programme will now be the one that hits the jackpot, don't you?

I don't think it's about hitting the jackpot is it? I think it's about joint procurement once the jackpot has been hit.

Most likely what this would mean is that everybody outside of this scheme (including us) would discover that they couldn't get hold of a single dose of the wretched thing until the very last goat herder in the most remote corner of Bulgaria had been immunised first.

Which vaccine are they buying though? We've already secured priority delivery of the Oxford vaccine, close to securing the Imperial vaccine as a priority as well and I'm sure the Americans will be happy to trade their efforts for ours so we each get the number two positions.

I think the German vaccine candidate is set for phase 1 trials soon or have just started, but that puts it months behind the Oxford team and I think it's on a schedule for the middle of next year not the end of this one.

Vaccines are one area the UK government has absolutely nailed IMO and continues to do so.

"We give £3.50 for a coffee on the way to work each morning.
Let's WFH and make it ourselves."

MaxPB said:

Black_Rook said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Black_Rook said:

DjayM said:

There’s also the apparent gamble of keeping the UK out of the EU vaccine programme.............

Who, in their right mind(*) would want to get involved in an EU vaccine programme

(*) Apart from LibDems, Obvs

You do realise that Sod's Law dictates that the EU programme will now be the one that hits the jackpot, don't you?

I don't think it's about hitting the jackpot is it? I think it's about joint procurement once the jackpot has been hit.

Most likely what this would mean is that everybody outside of this scheme (including us) would discover that they couldn't get hold of a single dose of the wretched thing until the very last goat herder in the most remote corner of Bulgaria had been immunised first.

Which vaccine are they buying though? We've already secured priority delivery of the Oxford vaccine, close to securing the Imperial vaccine as a priority as well and I'm sure the Americans will be happy to trade their efforts for ours so we each get the number two positions.

I think the German vaccine candidate is set for phase 1 trials soon or have just started, but that puts it months behind the Oxford team and I think it's on a schedule for the middle of next year not the end of this one.

Vaccines are one area the UK government has absolutely nailed IMO and continues to do so.

Great if it all works, but I can't help feeling you may have put the cart before the horse here.

kinabalu said:

BluestBlue said:

kinabalu said:

Andy_JS said:

I've never been a fan of these songs so wouldn't be bothered personally.

"BBC Music magazine columnist calls for 'crudely jingoistic' songs Rule, Britannia and Land of Hope and Glory to be scrapped from Last Night of the Proms because they are 'insensitive' in wake of BLM movement"

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8509685/Calls-Rule-Britannia-banned-Night-Proms.html

I've been calling for this for years. Nothing to do with BLM.

Possibly the least surprising revelation ever.

This paragraph from Richard Morrison sums up the Wokeists' contempt for ordinary people. Not only are they not regular Prom-goers like the great (?) man, they dare to experience feelings of patriotism that are not 'ironic':

'I look around me - particularly at the people sitting in the posh seats whom I've never seen at any other Proms - and realise that I can detect absolutely no sign of irony as they roar out these crudely jingoistic texts. On the contrary, they seem to mean every single word...'

Get stuffed, Richard, there's a good fellow.

I will concede you half a point here. Too much self-conscious irony is a barrier to expression and fun. But this is nothing to do with "woke". In fact I think you should exercise some free expression of your own and break out of the mental chains which cause you to try and make anything and everything about this.

It may be woke, or it may just be the common leftwing 'intellectual' contempt for Britain and its history - don't make me quote Orwell's 'The Lion and the Unicorn' again - but either way it's utterly contemptible and frankly disqualifies those who think like that from the government of the country.

Yes, some people actually love this country and its traditions in an entirely unironic fashion, and that's perfectly all right and normal. People like Morrison are the fringe loons who presume in their arrogance to dictate to the mainstream.

Mexicanpete said:

rottenborough said:

Mexicanpete said:

rottenborough said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/lisaocarroll/status/1281676532663160833

Every so often one gets another reminder of what a bloody stupid idea all this is.

Taking us backwards by 50 years.

Yes, but we have to see the idiocy in practice before we realise our error.

Afraid you are right.

Next winter is going to be horrendous. Nothing like it since at least the 70s.

I am trying to picture the absolute carnage, everywhere, from this act of vandalism.

I'm restocking my Brexit boxes slowly.

Meds is another issue though.

Very OT -
Songs of the Battle Ground States 2020

THERE’S A PANTHER IN MICHIGAN
Michael Peter Smith (to the tune of "Whiskey in the Jar")

There's an awful lot of cover
Down along the Raisin river
We would set up on the one side
He'd show up on the other
I know people used to wonder
Why we couldn't catch the panther
Well, there's an awful lot of cover
Down along the Raisin river

When a farmer in Manchester called
I was there in minutes,
Following the trail of feathers
Through the high grass when he screamed.
Thirty-four years in law enforcement
I've never been so scared.
I could see where he was going
by the way the grass was moving

There's a panther in Michigan
Don't that make your Halloween?
There's a panther in Michigan
Although he is seldom seen
And he's following the water
In the ways of the Indian,
And he's crossing the border
To Indiana

Now, people who know panthers
Say that they are lazy hunters,
And they'll take a prey that's wounded
Over one that's healthy
And he might take a child
Playing in a sand-box
For some kind of wounded critter
Down along the Raisin river

Test drivers saw the panther
At the Chrysler proving grounds
It was during hunting season
He was out there on the track
And he knew if he went in there
he'd be safe from hunters
He's an uncanny animal

There's a panther in Michigan
Don't that make your Halloween?
There's a panther in Michigan
Although he is seldom seen
And he's following the water
In the ways of the Indian,
And he's crossing the border
To Indiana

kinabalu said:

Black_Rook said:

MaxPB said:

Black_Rook said:

DjayM said:

There’s also the apparent gamble of keeping the UK out of the EU vaccine programme.............

Who, in their right mind(*) would want to get involved in an EU vaccine programme

(*) Apart from LibDems, Obvs

You do realise that Sod's Law dictates that the EU programme will now be the one that hits the jackpot, don't you?

It's a purchasing scheme, not manufacturing or research. It's basically a panic from the EU because there isn't a vaccine from any EU country that is entering the human trial stage so they haven't got a domestic candidate that is going to have a good chance of being in manufacturing before the end of the year. Getting us in the scheme would have given them two probably viable vaccines, one for October delivering and one for January. Right now they are left to being just another buyer of vaccines researched, developed and manufactured elsewhere. There is no need for the UK to take part in the scheme.

Hopefully you're correct. I think I'm just in a glass half empty (well, glass pretty much drained) sort of a mood tonight.

You're ALWAYS in a glass half empty mood. Total gloompot.

Quite right. I prefer to believe that the glass is always half-full. It just so happens that it's often half-full of piss...

rottenborough said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/lisaocarroll/status/1281676532663160833

Every so often one gets another reminder of what a bloody stupid idea all this is.

Taking us backwards by 50 years.

We're going to reduce Red Tape for business, by massively increasing Red Tape.

Mexicanpete said:

MaxPB said:

Black_Rook said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Black_Rook said:

DjayM said:

There’s also the apparent gamble of keeping the UK out of the EU vaccine programme.............

Who, in their right mind(*) would want to get involved in an EU vaccine programme

(*) Apart from LibDems, Obvs

You do realise that Sod's Law dictates that the EU programme will now be the one that hits the jackpot, don't you?

I don't think it's about hitting the jackpot is it? I think it's about joint procurement once the jackpot has been hit.

Most likely what this would mean is that everybody outside of this scheme (including us) would discover that they couldn't get hold of a single dose of the wretched thing until the very last goat herder in the most remote corner of Bulgaria had been immunised first.

Which vaccine are they buying though? We've already secured priority delivery of the Oxford vaccine, close to securing the Imperial vaccine as a priority as well and I'm sure the Americans will be happy to trade their efforts for ours so we each get the number two positions.

I think the German vaccine candidate is set for phase 1 trials soon or have just started, but that puts it months behind the Oxford team and I think it's on a schedule for the middle of next year not the end of this one.

Vaccines are one area the UK government has absolutely nailed IMO and continues to do so.

Great if it all works, but I can't help feeling you may have put the cart before the horse here.

The whole point is that the EU are buying the same vaccines that we have already secured priority access to. We have spent a lot of money in this area and we have a world class research sector and a world class pharmaceutical sector. This scheme would have given up our priority access purchases and put them in the hands of the EU, why would we do that?

https://twitter.com/DailyMailUK/status/1281694566236794880

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/lisaocarroll/status/1281676532663160833

27 acres isn't very big. Don't 10 000 lorries go via Dover each day. The site must be one of many as it probably could only take 1-2% of those at any one time.

BluestBlue said:

kinabalu said:

Black_Rook said:

MaxPB said:

Black_Rook said:

DjayM said:

There’s also the apparent gamble of keeping the UK out of the EU vaccine programme.............

Who, in their right mind(*) would want to get involved in an EU vaccine programme

(*) Apart from LibDems, Obvs

You do realise that Sod's Law dictates that the EU programme will now be the one that hits the jackpot, don't you?

It's a purchasing scheme, not manufacturing or research. It's basically a panic from the EU because there isn't a vaccine from any EU country that is entering the human trial stage so they haven't got a domestic candidate that is going to have a good chance of being in manufacturing before the end of the year. Getting us in the scheme would have given them two probably viable vaccines, one for October delivering and one for January. Right now they are left to being just another buyer of vaccines researched, developed and manufactured elsewhere. There is no need for the UK to take part in the scheme.

Hopefully you're correct. I think I'm just in a glass half empty (well, glass pretty much drained) sort of a mood tonight.

You're ALWAYS in a glass half empty mood. Total gloompot.

Quite right. I prefer to believe that the glass is always half-full. It just so happens that it's often half-full of piss...

Best stop drinking in Spoons then.

kinabalu said:

kyf_100 said:

kinabalu said:

kyf_100 said:

kinabalu said:

Andy_JS said:

I've never been a fan of these songs so wouldn't be bothered personally.

"BBC Music magazine columnist calls for 'crudely jingoistic' songs Rule, Britannia and Land of Hope and Glory to be scrapped from Last Night of the Proms because they are 'insensitive' in wake of BLM movement"

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8509685/Calls-Rule-Britannia-banned-Night-Proms.html

I've been calling for this for years. Nothing to do with BLM.

Why is our culture and our history something to be ashamed of?

I'm not ashamed of all our history and culture by any means. That Proms stuff I just find a bit embarrassing. I think because it's both tacky AND jingoistic. Maybe the latter is my main problem with it because tacky can ok. I didn't mind Cliff singing at Wimbledon for example. That actually gets better with time. It's aged well.

Then nobody is forcing you to sing.

I find people singing eng-er-land at football matches a bit tacky and embarrassing, but I understand the people in the stadium at the world cup see it quite differently.It's about being part of a shared history and shared tradition. A sing song. A knees up.

Rule, Britannia and Land of Hope and Glory are, to me, charming if occasionally antiquated parts of our history (does anybody believe that Britannia rules the waves any more? We can barely defend the Falklands). They are not parts of our national psyche to be ashamed of.

No fair enough. But I'm not ashamed of those Proms scenes I just feel a bit squirmy and embarrassed to watch them. Should I be ashamed of feeling embarrassed? I don't think so. It's just how it impacts me. Why then do I tune in and expose myself to it? That's a very good question that I cannot answer to my own satisfaction let alone anybody else's.

The last night of the proms looks like my vision of hell. Its pretty easy to avoid though.

Charles said:

Black_Rook said:

rcs1000 said:

stodge said:

Evening all

So is Boris Johnson preparing to take on the REAL Covid-19 revolutionaries? Not of course those who dislike statues or the "woke" (whoever they are), but those who have discovered the real joys of home working.

In a typically muddled and confusing response which will no doubt require some poor Cabinet member to go out and issue a "clarification", we are told we "should go back to work if we can".

There's also some nonsense about "normality" - doesn't he realise the world has changed? Many people have tried home working and they like it - many businesses have found home working works so why do companies and councils spend millions on office accommodation that is no longer required?

Why get up at the crack of the dawn, dress up and then slog down to the station or bus stop or through the traffic just to get to work? A 100-minute commute can be a 100-second commute and it can be far more relaxing and less stressful.

If the Government wanted to do something useful, it should recognise what has happened - encourage house builders to put home officers rather than extra bedrooms in properties.Perhaps that will happen with the redundant city and town centre office blocks which can be converted to residential accommodation.

Unfortunately, Boris is so far behind the curve as to be out of sight and it's disappointing there is no Minister in charge of leading the revolution but perhaps it's also an example most people don't need Government to get things done.

You clearly don't have children or animals. A two hour commute to avoid them seems like a small price to pay.

Give it a few years and entrepreneurs will probably have built or converted little office buildings in every town of what was the commuter belt, in order to accommodate various grumps and stick-in-the-mud suit traditionalists of the kind that you describe. If there are enough folk out there desperate to do office jobs in an office rather than their own homes, but where their employer no longer bothers to maintain one, then the market will probably step in and provide a solution (if those persons are willing to part with some percentage of what they would once have spent on nasty sweaty cattle truck train commutes for the dubious privilege.)

We started doing that 3 years ago. Locations in Cambridge, Mortlake, Newbury at the moment.

A true visionary, Sir

I don't suppose you'd also care to disclose tomorrow night's Lotto numbers...?

News at 10 have kindly clarified things for us:

When Bozo said go back to work, he didn't mean 'Go back to work'.

Black_Rook said:

isam said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1281692082273497088

Do people in pubs have to wear them too? It doesn't make sense if they don't

Realistically the pubs and restaurants have to be exempt because you can't expect the clientele to eat and drink through a bloody mask.

This might even be part of a fiendish ploy to encourage people to patronise certain venues. I can just see the miserable bastards deciding that wouldn't it be a brilliant idea to force the population to wear the wretched things everywhere - EXCEPT in pubs, restaurants and (possibly) gyms? You thus incentivize the use of these facilities because they're the only places outside your own house where you can go without being forced to strap a bit of cloth over your face the whole time.

Seems crazy. I went to the supermarket today and found it extremely easy to not wear a mask or gloves whilst getting my shopping and not talking to anyone/exhaling in a way that might spread any diseases I have. At the pub, after a few looseners, people completely disregard others personal space and talk very loudly at close proximity. In gyms people breathe far more heavily with their mouths wider open than they would almost anywhere else (!).

privatisation

https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1281699518375964685

MaxPB said:

Mexicanpete said:

MaxPB said:

Black_Rook said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Black_Rook said:

DjayM said:

There’s also the apparent gamble of keeping the UK out of the EU vaccine programme.............

Who, in their right mind(*) would want to get involved in an EU vaccine programme

(*) Apart from LibDems, Obvs

You do realise that Sod's Law dictates that the EU programme will now be the one that hits the jackpot, don't you?

I don't think it's about hitting the jackpot is it? I think it's about joint procurement once the jackpot has been hit.

Most likely what this would mean is that everybody outside of this scheme (including us) would discover that they couldn't get hold of a single dose of the wretched thing until the very last goat herder in the most remote corner of Bulgaria had been immunised first.

Which vaccine are they buying though? We've already secured priority delivery of the Oxford vaccine, close to securing the Imperial vaccine as a priority as well and I'm sure the Americans will be happy to trade their efforts for ours so we each get the number two positions.

I think the German vaccine candidate is set for phase 1 trials soon or have just started, but that puts it months behind the Oxford team and I think it's on a schedule for the middle of next year not the end of this one.

Vaccines are one area the UK government has absolutely nailed IMO and continues to do so.

Great if it all works, but I can't help feeling you may have put the cart before the horse here.

The whole point is that the EU are buying the same vaccines that we have already secured priority access to. We have spent a lot of money in this area and we have a world class research sector and a world class pharmaceutical sector. This scheme would have given up our priority access purchases and put them in the hands of the EU, why would we do that?

I hope your confidence turns out to be well founded.

President Trump and Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease expert, are continuing to spar over the government’s response to the coronavirus...
One of the points of contention is the seriousness of the disease caused by the virus, which has been spreading across the country at its fastest pace yet. Mr. Trump has argued that it is mostly harmless


https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/10/world/coronavirus-updates.html?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage#link-38f72312

Americans would be actually suicidal to re-elect Trump for another term.

Scott_xP said:

privatisation

https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1281699518375964685

Those who read my header six weeks would know already that centralised "Command and Control" were back in a big way.

HYUFD said:

Black_Rook said:

HYUFD said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

Mexicanpete said:

Beibheirli_C said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

SouthamObserver said:

squareroot2 said:

SouthamObserver said:

squareroot2 said:

SouthamObserver said:

Fieldwork mostly done after more Sunak cash dispensing and acres of positive headlines about it, too.

So what.. its a double digit lead. Where is CHB when you need him, predicting crossover v soon.... (was it just for best PM or voting int as well?)

It's MoE on the previous YouGov. The Tory leads are currently in the four to 10 point range. I'll take that right now given where things were in March, especially as there is decent progress from December (4 to 7 points, depending on the pollster).

That may be true , but its TEN points yes 10 points. if you are happy to take that , then bless you... Starmer has had it easy as you like, the Tories have worked him out, it isn't going to be plain sailing for either party.....

I agree. Starmer has to be more than not Jeremy Corbyn. The Tories have a depression and a potential No Deal with the EU to steer us through. Politics is going to be very interesting.

And of course the rest of the EU face a depression and no deal to steer through

It is not going to be pretty for any government

It was good to see Mark Drakeford, Wales FM, resolutely defending the union today and this is consistent with Starmer's support for the union.

Stark contrast with Sturgeon who has been trying to use Wales to attack Westminster

Why oh why isn't the leader of the SNP resolutely defending the union? It's an absolute disgrace, so it is.

She is on her own as far as Wales is concerned

Perhaps because the Scots remember a time where they were not joined at the hip to England? The Welsh have had a few hundred years more to get used to the experience...

There is no real appetite for an Independent Wales. That will change when unfortunately Scotland leave the Union.

Wales voted Leave just like England and more English voters now want an independent England than Welsh voters want an independent Wales anyway

https://twitter.com/dgwbirch/status/1279084991327199234?s=20

Indyref2 will of course be banned for as long as the Tories remain in power

If you read my first post on this subject I stated there is currently no appetite for Welsh Independence, my point was, there will be when Scotland and Northern Ireland have left

And your Boris will ban a referendum before 2024. It will be the Labour government in 2024 that presides over the break up of the union, I believe are notions that will come back to bite you.

There won't be, as I showed England will vote to leave the Union before Wales, so if the Union ends it will be Wales left standing for the Union to the last.

You can think what you want, the Tories will ban indyref2 as per their 2019 manifesto up until 2024 with or without a nationalist Holyrood majority next year, if Starmer wishes to allow an indyref2 after that is up to him but I would not guarantee a Yes vote in that circumstance, especially as he would take the UK back into the single market anyway and offer devomax

Johnson will have so ticked off Scotland by 2024 that Starmer offering 50% off dining out vouchers won't change enough minds. The answer will be yes!

In your view because you are weak and give in to Nats, I never give in to Nats no matter what the cost.

The Scottish people elect an endless succession of Nationalist Governments, the entire purpose of which are to break up the Union. Many, perhaps most, Nat voters also actively detest us.

Why, therefore, are you so desperate not to let them simply go and do their own thing? What is the damned point? Stubbornness?

Yes and they will go on hating us regardless, 45% of Scots at least are Nationalists (and the majority of Yes voting Glasgow) and many of them do hate the English, especially Tory voting English that will not change however much we try and appease them. It is the 55% who voted No in 2014 we need to focus on keeping.

As a Unionist I respect the views of the 55% who voted to stay in the UK in a 'once in a generation' referendum in 2014, Scotland provides a great deal to the UK from oil and renewable energy, to culture, to ancient universities and financial services and whiskey and army regiments and we should do what we can to retain it.

"Some hate the English. I don't. They're just wankers." (Trainspotting).

Foxy said:

Scott_xP said:

privatisation

https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1281699518375964685

Those who read my header six weeks would know already that centralised "Command and Control" were back in a big way.

More centralisation in Whitehall?

Madness.

And directly opposite to what seems to have worked so well in Germany iirc.

Also, incidentally the same Tory government who persuaded themselves that Lansley was brilliant rather than a fool.

Foxy said:

kinabalu said:

kyf_100 said:

kinabalu said:

kyf_100 said:

kinabalu said:

Andy_JS said:

I've never been a fan of these songs so wouldn't be bothered personally.

"BBC Music magazine columnist calls for 'crudely jingoistic' songs Rule, Britannia and Land of Hope and Glory to be scrapped from Last Night of the Proms because they are 'insensitive' in wake of BLM movement"

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8509685/Calls-Rule-Britannia-banned-Night-Proms.html

I've been calling for this for years. Nothing to do with BLM.

Why is our culture and our history something to be ashamed of?

I'm not ashamed of all our history and culture by any means. That Proms stuff I just find a bit embarrassing. I think because it's both tacky AND jingoistic. Maybe the latter is my main problem with it because tacky can ok. I didn't mind Cliff singing at Wimbledon for example. That actually gets better with time. It's aged well.

Then nobody is forcing you to sing.

I find people singing eng-er-land at football matches a bit tacky and embarrassing, but I understand the people in the stadium at the world cup see it quite differently.It's about being part of a shared history and shared tradition. A sing song. A knees up.

Rule, Britannia and Land of Hope and Glory are, to me, charming if occasionally antiquated parts of our history (does anybody believe that Britannia rules the waves any more? We can barely defend the Falklands). They are not parts of our national psyche to be ashamed of.

No fair enough. But I'm not ashamed of those Proms scenes I just feel a bit squirmy and embarrassed to watch them. Should I be ashamed of feeling embarrassed? I don't think so. It's just how it impacts me. Why then do I tune in and expose myself to it? That's a very good question that I cannot answer to my own satisfaction let alone anybody else's.

The last night of the proms looks like my vision of hell. Its pretty easy to avoid though.

I am sure I am doing it a great disservice but as an outsider it looks like a gathering of elderly folk who like to patriotically waive the Union Jack and reminisce about empire, tradition and the good old days. It would be pretty churlish to stop Rule Britannia or Land of Hope and Glory at such a gathering or even criticise them for singing those.

However starting a new tradition of singing Rule Britannia at another type of event, for arguments sake for the British Olympic teams, would be inappropriate. As ever context matters, and Last night of the proms is a place for tradition. There may come a time when enough of the people who actually go start to be uncomfortable with such songs but Id imagine thats 20-30 years down the line, not now.

rottenborough said:

Foxy said:

Scott_xP said:

privatisation

https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1281699518375964685

Those who read my header six weeks would know already that centralised "Command and Control" were back in a big way.

More centralisation in Whitehall?

Madness.

And directly opposite to what seems to have worked so well in Germany iirc.

Also, incidentally the same Tory government who persuaded themselves that Lansley was brilliant rather than a fool.

Germany doesn't have the NHS.

72 years on, all that's changed is that the Health Secretary is only held responsible for every bedpan dropped in 85% of the UK, not all of it.

BluestBlue said:

kinabalu said:

Andy_JS said:

I've never been a fan of these songs so wouldn't be bothered personally.

"BBC Music magazine columnist calls for 'crudely jingoistic' songs Rule, Britannia and Land of Hope and Glory to be scrapped from Last Night of the Proms because they are 'insensitive' in wake of BLM movement"

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8509685/Calls-Rule-Britannia-banned-Night-Proms.html

I've been calling for this for years. Nothing to do with BLM.

Possibly the least surprising revelation ever.

This paragraph from Richard Morrison sums up the Wokeists' contempt for ordinary people. Not only are they not regular Prom-goers like the great (?) man, they dare to experience feelings of patriotism that are not 'ironic':

'I look around me - particularly at the people sitting in the posh seats whom I've never seen at any other Proms - and realise that I can detect absolutely no sign of irony as they roar out these crudely jingoistic texts. On the contrary, they seem to mean every single word...'

Get stuffed, Richard, there's a good fellow.

My brother has 12 of those “posh seats”. He sells them for the Last Night - £15k. You’d be daft not to

noneoftheabove said:

Foxy said:

kinabalu said:

kyf_100 said:

kinabalu said:

kyf_100 said:

kinabalu said:

Andy_JS said:

I've never been a fan of these songs so wouldn't be bothered personally.

"BBC Music magazine columnist calls for 'crudely jingoistic' songs Rule, Britannia and Land of Hope and Glory to be scrapped from Last Night of the Proms because they are 'insensitive' in wake of BLM movement"

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8509685/Calls-Rule-Britannia-banned-Night-Proms.html

I've been calling for this for years. Nothing to do with BLM.

Why is our culture and our history something to be ashamed of?

I'm not ashamed of all our history and culture by any means. That Proms stuff I just find a bit embarrassing. I think because it's both tacky AND jingoistic. Maybe the latter is my main problem with it because tacky can ok. I didn't mind Cliff singing at Wimbledon for example. That actually gets better with time. It's aged well.

Then nobody is forcing you to sing.

I find people singing eng-er-land at football matches a bit tacky and embarrassing, but I understand the people in the stadium at the world cup see it quite differently.It's about being part of a shared history and shared tradition. A sing song. A knees up.

Rule, Britannia and Land of Hope and Glory are, to me, charming if occasionally antiquated parts of our history (does anybody believe that Britannia rules the waves any more? We can barely defend the Falklands). They are not parts of our national psyche to be ashamed of.

No fair enough. But I'm not ashamed of those Proms scenes I just feel a bit squirmy and embarrassed to watch them. Should I be ashamed of feeling embarrassed? I don't think so. It's just how it impacts me. Why then do I tune in and expose myself to it? That's a very good question that I cannot answer to my own satisfaction let alone anybody else's.

The last night of the proms looks like my vision of hell. Its pretty easy to avoid though.

I am sure I am doing it a great disservice but as an outsider it looks like a gathering of elderly folk who like to patriotically waive the Union Jack and reminisce about empire, tradition and the good old days. It would be pretty churlish to stop Rule Britannia or Land of Hope and Glory at such a gathering or even criticise them for singing those.

However starting a new tradition of singing Rule Britannia at another type of event, for arguments sake for the British Olympic teams, would be inappropriate. As ever context matters, and Last night of the proms is a place for tradition. There may come a time when enough of the people who actually go start to be uncomfortable with such songs but Id imagine thats 20-30 years down the line, not now.

Though now the EU flag is waved extensively.

Britain is a big and diverse country. Big enough to accommodate both the flag waving karaoke nationalists and those that laugh at their jingoism.

SandyRentool said:

isam said:

Black_Rook said:

isam said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1281692082273497088

Do people in pubs have to wear them too? It doesn't make sense if they don't

Realistically the pubs and restaurants have to be exempt because you can't expect the clientele to eat and drink through a bloody mask.

This might even be part of a fiendish ploy to encourage people to patronise certain venues. I can just see the miserable bastards deciding that wouldn't it be a brilliant idea to force the population to wear the wretched things everywhere - EXCEPT in pubs, restaurants and (possibly) gyms? You thus incentivize the use of these facilities because they're the only places outside your own house where you can go without being forced to strap a bit of cloth over your face the whole time.

Seems crazy. I went to the supermarket today and found it extremely easy to not wear a mask or gloves whilst getting my shopping and not talking to anyone/exhaling in a way that might spread any diseases I have. At the pub, after a few looseners, people completely disregard others personal space and talk very loudly at close proximity. In gyms people breathe far more heavily with their mouths wider open than they would almost anywhere else (!).

The government is now just responding to the demands of business and turned its back on the scientific advice.

However it appears that a big slice of the population are declining the opportunities presented to increase their risk of infection.

Here is a useful graphic on risky activities published in Ireland.

Mexicanpete said:

Foxy said:

Scott_xP said:

privatisation

https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1281699518375964685

Those who read my header six weeks would know already that centralised "Command and Control" were back in a big way.

As time passes it would appear Covid-19 is a handy invisibility cloak for a number of projects that might otherwise have caused consternation.

Smells like a Cummings plan to me. Bet Big Data will feature in the plans.

Mexicanpete said:

rottenborough said:

Mexicanpete said:

rottenborough said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/lisaocarroll/status/1281676532663160833

Every so often one gets another reminder of what a bloody stupid idea all this is.

Taking us backwards by 50 years.

Yes, but we have to see the idiocy in practice before we realise our error.

Afraid you are right.

Next winter is going to be horrendous. Nothing like it since at least the 70s.

I am trying to picture the absolute carnage, everywhere, from this act of vandalism.

The government will blame the EU for having the cheek to enforce customs checks when the UK was so willing to be nice! And the easily duped which sadly seems a lot of the population will swallow it. Have you had a chance to read the EU release on what will change even if there is a trade deal . It makes grim reading ! And even worse if there’s no deal .

Barnesian said:

SandyRentool said:

isam said:

Black_Rook said:

isam said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/1281692082273497088

Do people in pubs have to wear them too? It doesn't make sense if they don't

Realistically the pubs and restaurants have to be exempt because you can't expect the clientele to eat and drink through a bloody mask.

This might even be part of a fiendish ploy to encourage people to patronise certain venues. I can just see the miserable bastards deciding that wouldn't it be a brilliant idea to force the population to wear the wretched things everywhere - EXCEPT in pubs, restaurants and (possibly) gyms? You thus incentivize the use of these facilities because they're the only places outside your own house where you can go without being forced to strap a bit of cloth over your face the whole time.

Seems crazy. I went to the supermarket today and found it extremely easy to not wear a mask or gloves whilst getting my shopping and not talking to anyone/exhaling in a way that might spread any diseases I have. At the pub, after a few looseners, people completely disregard others personal space and talk very loudly at close proximity. In gyms people breathe far more heavily with their mouths wider open than they would almost anywhere else (!).

The government is now just responding to the demands of business and turned its back on the scientific advice.

However it appears that a big slice of the population are declining the opportunities presented to increase their risk of infection.

Here is a useful graphic on risky activities published in Ireland.

A bit of moralising in there. Low risk vacation in shared home with another family. High risk, go out with someone you dont know well.

Really not sure the virus cares who you know. Someone new may be riskier or less risky than an existing partner depending entirely on their other actions, not how long you have known them.

MaxPB said:

Black_Rook said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Black_Rook said:

DjayM said:

There’s also the apparent gamble of keeping the UK out of the EU vaccine programme.............

Who, in their right mind(*) would want to get involved in an EU vaccine programme

(*) Apart from LibDems, Obvs

You do realise that Sod's Law dictates that the EU programme will now be the one that hits the jackpot, don't you?

I don't think it's about hitting the jackpot is it? I think it's about joint procurement once the jackpot has been hit.

Most likely what this would mean is that everybody outside of this scheme (including us) would discover that they couldn't get hold of a single dose of the wretched thing until the very last goat herder in the most remote corner of Bulgaria had been immunised first.

Which vaccine are they buying though? We've already secured priority delivery of the Oxford vaccine, close to securing the Imperial vaccine as a priority as well and I'm sure the Americans will be happy to trade their efforts for ours so we each get the number two positions.

I think the German vaccine candidate is set for phase 1 trials soon or have just started, but that puts it months behind the Oxford team and I think it's on a schedule for the middle of next year not the end of this one.

Vaccines are one area the UK government has absolutely nailed IMO and continues to do so.

Watch this space