politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New YouGov poll has the Tories back with a double digit lead
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New YouGov poll has the Tories back with a double digit lead
The changes of course are within the margin of error and YouGov has been tending to show the Tories doing better than some other pollsters. Last weekend Opinium, the pollster which got the last general election most right, had the gap at just 4%.
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Won't that take over a decade, given the complexity of the response, the number of actors involved, and the number of things to investigate? Seems way past the horizon to me.
I look forward to your reaction to a YouGov poll conducted in the 24 hours immediately following a Conservative Budget that announces a £30 billion package of austerity achieved through a mixture of tax rises and public spending cuts, just at the same time as interest and mortgage rates are starting to rise again. I think we're about two years away from that.
"New research from Karolinska Institutet and Karolinska University Hospital shows that many people with mild or asymptomatic COVID-19 demonstrate so-called T-cell-mediated immunity to the new coronavirus, even if they have not tested positively for antibodies."
https://news.ki.se/immunity-to-covid-19-is-probably-higher-than-tests-have-shown
It might also, of course, be good news for President Trump, as it means that the current take off in cases in the US might slow down sooner than people expect. (Especially as less dense places have lower Rs - in that you have contact with fewer people - and therefore herd immunity is reached earlier.)
https://twitter.com/prisonplanet/status/863040667869745156?s=21
Labour has a very big branding problem. This is the sort of behaviour many people believe will become commonplace if Labour gets into power. Good luck to SKS in trying to persuade people otherwise. It is like trying to persuade people the Conservatives are the party of the NHS......
ps apologies for a link to Watson......
Starmer has had it easy as you like and its TEN points, the Tories have worked him out, it isn't going to be plain sailing for either party.....
It is not going to be pretty for any government
It was good to see Mark Drakeford, Wales FM, resolutely defending the union today and this is consistent with Starmer's support for the union.
Stark contrast with Sturgeon who has been trying to use Wales to attack Westminster
Have you seen the FCO have outlawed cruises indefinitely today
Labour should focus on establishing Starmer as an alternative PM and in pointing out the government's failings. Ultimately, the government controls its own fate. If it can deliver on its Brexit promises and emerge from Covid intact then it will be fine. My guess is that it will fail on both, but what do I know?
... and then the Tories lost the next election.
Anyway, I'm climbing out of the dock. Why don't you say what YOUR vision is. Let's run your one up the flagpole and see if it billows.
"FCO have outlawed cruises indefinitely" is probably strictly true but then you could equally say "Government outlaws pubs indefinitely" back in March.
I suspect it will be like the travel quarantine rules and be reined back in rapidly in the coming weeks.
Having said all that, much of the cruise industry target audience is likely to be reluctant to cruise until a vaccine is widely available imo. Maybe the cruise industry will never recover.
Nationalised utilites were a steaming pile of horse manure back then and they would be again.
As for socialism and splurging money, we already have that sort of govt. thanks to Cummings and Johnson
So is Boris Johnson preparing to take on the REAL Covid-19 revolutionaries? Not of course those who dislike statues or the "woke" (whoever they are), but those who have discovered the real joys of home working.
In a typically muddled and confusing response which will no doubt require some poor Cabinet member to go out and issue a "clarification", we are told we "should go back to work if we can".
There's also some nonsense about "normality" - doesn't he realise the world has changed? Many people have tried home working and they like it - many businesses have found home working works so why do companies and councils spend millions on office accommodation that is no longer required?
Why get up at the crack of the dawn, dress up and then slog down to the station or bus stop or through the traffic just to get to work? A 100-minute commute can be a 100-second commute and it can be far more relaxing and less stressful.
If the Government wanted to do something useful, it should recognise what has happened - encourage house builders to put home officers rather than extra bedrooms in properties.Perhaps that will happen with the redundant city and town centre office blocks which can be converted to residential accommodation.
Unfortunately, Boris is so far behind the curve as to be out of sight and it's disappointing there is no Minister in charge of leading the revolution but perhaps it's also an example most people don't need Government to get things done.
I haven't found the crosstabs for the main Rasmussen poll yesterday which put Biden 10 points in front (50-40).
In case anyone has been wondering where I have been BT Openreach being more useless, incompetent and arrogant than Dominic Cummings, they decided on their own initiative (my ISP did not ask for it) to upgrade my internet on Monday and naturally damaged it beyond repair. They are blithely saying it will be back on at some point and that I will get five pounds a day for every day it’s off. Meanwhile, I am hoarding data like a miser in a desperate attempt to keep my online teaching going, with I might add limited success.
So I may not be around for the next fortnight. Very frustrating but there is nothing I can do. BT Openreach don’t care about their customers and I have no redress for their gross incompetence.
A directly elected executive with defined roles such as education, social care, police, justice etc
Instead of choosing between a conservative or labour or libdem whole manifesto I get to vote precisely on the policies I think good.
Each candidate standing for each role has outlined what they plan to do, they have it costed by the civil service.
Each policy position is then expressed as a tax rise or tax fall and people know how much what they are voting for will cost.
For example if someone has a policy of free school meals for all students that policy will cost x million. That means on a salary of 20k it will add x pounds in tax per year, at 40k this much,60k this much.
Each policy should also have to be measurable. So for example free school meals for all will I believe add 0.5 grades to average gradings. If its not measurable as to improvement it can't be a policy.
The civil service will then publish yearly reports on how the policies enacted are performing against goal
That takes care of the executive.
I would then have a scrutiny body. Its goal is not to oppose but to raise issues with policy as drafted in legislation so they can be addressed. I would suggest a sortition method 1 from each constituency. Selected yearly. They can ask for amendments and vote down a policy a certain number of times. They can also ask for a panel of experts to study the proposal to inform them.
Infrastructure spending like HS2 I suggest should be approved by national plebiscite and proposals for how it will be paid off should be included.
The chancellor role would be outlining which taxes he will target to raise whatever value required by the overall policies voted in. ie lower tax band x%, higher taxband y% vat z% etc/ Then when the policies are implemented x y and z are calculated
That is for a start.
I'd have thought fewer cabins might be a good start but the economics of that aren't brilliant for the industry. Perhaps only allowing passengers off on pre-booked excursions initially with full screening on return.
There's a load of nonsense from some on here about the economy "being destroyed" and some industries "never recovering". It's called change - capitalism is very good at it. Those that are adept, can adapt and see opportunities survive and prosper, those who don't or can't will go under.
It's brutal but it's the nature of the beast - now, we have the ludicrous spectacle of a Conservative Chancellor dishing out money like water, borrowing like there's no tomorrow just to save a few jobs or businesses.
Wales (the first questioner) looked quite disheartened after he was shot down in flames.
It is a tactic Johnson should adopt. Whenever a ridiculous and banal question is asked, rather than following the "what an excellent question" with inane waffle, Johnson should simply say "that's a stupid question, I am not going to answer it".
But look - that is not your vision. That's still you bridling at MY one.
It took me time to type up so made it a separate reply
Daily Mail
2020 just gets better and better.
The likelihood of the British state being pared down to England and Wales within 5-10 years is quite strong.
https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1281604216725704708
My 1st question. How do you prevent people being elected at the same time with contradictory plans?
It would be highly convenient for government if everything was magically the same.
But WFH us here to stay. And businesses which require large numbers of office workers to gather together to survive are going to have to adapt or die.
I wonder if the real issue is the commercial property market? It has been a one way bet for decades and sustains a large number of Tory donors? Makes no sense at all otherwise.
Unfortunately for her he is a very strong unionist
There would still be a cabinet, where there are clashes they can either be hashed out in the cabinet and agreed or deferred to the sortition congress
It is just foul and unacceptable
The 'contextualisers' are 2020 Tories prolapsing over the imminent collapse of Western civilisation and missing having Jezza to frighten the horses with.
It's not the worst idea I've ever heard but I don't trust property developers.
And Breaking: Ghislaine Maxwell should be released on bail while awaiting trial for her alleged involvement in Jeffrey Epstein’s child sex trafficking ring because of “the Covid-19 crisis and its impact on detained defendants”, the British socialite’s lawyers argued in Manhattan federal court papers filed on Friday.
To make that sound less like a glib aphorism, here's how I think we can really give people more of the above. Health:
1. Make our staples better. Imagine if our daily milk and bread - things that virtually everyone eats, were doing our bodies more good. They easily could be, to the benefit of all, with cleverer processing of food.
2. Stop demonising saturated fat, and put polyunsaturated fats where they belong - in your car.
3. Incentivise remineralisation of the soil, and rotation farming, like ye olde days, as opposed to nitrogen fertilisers, creating robust, nutrient dense, vegetables, cereals, and cattle. Nothing pricey about this - the nitrogen fertiliser race is actually the expensive bit.
Beauty: is a symptom of health. Not just good skin, bodies and hair - bone structure and teeth also come from nutrition. It only takes a generation or so for Cindy Crawford's offspring to become people of Walmart, and vice versa.
Talent: innate intelliegnce is also a symptom of health.
You get the secrets behind wealth when you subscribe to my reasonably 6 month course.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2020/jan/31/brexit-day-britain-prepares-leave-eu-live-news-updates
On top of which I have to say considering you are someone that thinks dripping hydrogen peroxide in their ears is good for colds I will take anything you say about health with a very large pinch of salt if you don't mind
Though, of course, Johnson's entreaties to businesses who can do away with paying out massive quantities of cash to rent office space, and commuters who can do away with paying out massive quantities of cash to endure shitty train journeys (only made more appalling by masks,) will fall mostly upon deaf ears. Mass commuting, on the scale practiced up until March, is never coming back.
Even Noam Chomsky - Noam Chomsky! - has been moved to condemn the left's headlong rush to unthinking censorship:
https://harpers.org/a-letter-on-justice-and-open-debate/
'The free exchange of information and ideas, the lifeblood of a liberal society, is daily becoming more constricted. While we have come to expect this on the radical right, censoriousness is also spreading more widely in our culture: an intolerance of opposing views, a vogue for public shaming and ostracism, and the tendency to dissolve complex policy issues in a blinding moral certainty. We uphold the value of robust and even caustic counter-speech from all quarters. But it is now all too common to hear calls for swift and severe retribution in response to perceived transgressions of speech and thought. More troubling still, institutional leaders, in a spirit of panicked damage control, are delivering hasty and disproportionate punishments instead of considered reforms. Editors are fired for running controversial pieces; books are withdrawn for alleged inauthenticity; journalists are barred from writing on certain topics; professors are investigated for quoting works of literature in class; a researcher is fired for circulating a peer-reviewed academic study; and the heads of organizations are ousted for what are sometimes just clumsy mistakes. Whatever the arguments around each particular incident, the result has been to steadily narrow the boundaries of what can be said without the threat of reprisal. We are already paying the price in greater risk aversion among writers, artists, and journalists who fear for their livelihoods if they depart from the consensus, or even lack sufficient zeal in agreement.'
However, for the SNP the only supporters they may have are the greens and plaid
And the advantages of living in a City centre are lessened if you don't have to work there. And if there are no arts, entertainment, restaurants and bars around cos they've gone bust. And falling prices mean no overseas "investors" to leave them empty.
Good to see some honesty about the press, state broadcaster and British establishment being well and truly anti-indy.
The other point is while during lockdown it's been difficult balancing work and keeping children entertained at home, IF we get all the children back in September, I suspect working at home will get a new lease of life - once the children are at school, the home will be quiet, there will be no childcare costs.
MY concern is the Government will try to use subtle compulsion to get people back onto the trains and tubes. As we've seen in Leicester, some organisations don't seem to care about the health concerns of their employees - I hope we won't see middle class home workers forced back to offices.