politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The WH2020 betting and polling continue to look good for Biden
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Putting a border down the Irish Sea is something no British Prime Minister could ever do.Luckyguy1983 said:
You must be more up on current affairs than I am, because I haven't noticed any caving. We will see when we get there.TOPPING said:
No chums, remember, only interests. And the RoW will see us as a potentially weaker negotiating partner now. Certainly they will if they take notice of Boris' caving to date.Luckyguy1983 said:
I did say eventual. And in the meantime, it is mad to care, and if we care, to cultivate and brood on those feelings. I'm glad to have provided New Zealanders with a laugh - I am sure there are considerably more though who are genuinely looking forward to being our 'chums' - the loss of so much of their trade to Britain when we joined the EEC was devastating for their economy.OnlyLivingBoy said:
Speaking as someone who spends quite a lot of time talking to assorted foreigners in the fields of finance, economics and public policy, that's really not my experience. They all think we're bonkers and have an inflated idea of the UK's international importance.Luckyguy1983 said:
The cringeing obsession of remoaners with how we're perceived abroad is something akin to a mental disorder. We voted for Brexit to be an independent trading nation, with a democratically elected Government setting our own laws. I would be surprised if that rather humble aim did not eventually result in grudging respect in the counsels of the world, but if it results in interminable attempts at levity, that's fine too, I really couldn't give a toss, and neither should anyone else.Charles said:
That’s an example of a good political cartoon compared to the rubbish you usually postScott_xP said:
The only exceptions are other Europeans who hate the EU and hope Brexit might hasten its demise.2 -
It is going to be an interesting battle.kinabalu said:
Have a soft spot for Vettel. Can't really explain why. I sense he might have now completed his journey from overrated to underrated - like Slade - and so he might give Leclerc a black eye albeit neither being contenders if it really is a rubbish car.Nigelb said:
Ferrari have already said their car is going to be off the pace at the first few races, so I wouldn't get your hopes up too much.kinabalu said:
Looking forward to this F1 season. I have a hunch that Vettel might surprise on the upside.Sandpit said:
It’ll be fun if it’s like that all weekend!Morris_Dancer said:F1: wee bit soggy in Austria.
https://twitter.com/adamcooperF1/status/1278679952251129863
Although my hunches on F1 are really just hunches.
But F1 is a sporting lifeline right now. Fresh narrative plus the lack of fans makes no difference to the TV experience of watching the actual race.
No other sport can tick both those boxes - hence why I can't seem to get into any of them these days.
I wouldn't write Vettel off, either, but I think Leclerc possibly has more of what it takes to get the best out of a recalcitrant car. Vettel has always been at his relative quickest against his teammates when the car suits him.1 -
Figuratively getting rid of them, as opposed to physically. It’s not possible to actually remove them, as they’re built as a single unit with three seats.eristdoof said:
I was responding to "get rid of the middle seats".Sandpit said:
If someone wants a middle seat then fine, but the vast majority of people are going to want an empty seat next to them for as long as there’s a nasty virus going round.eristdoof said:
Mum, dad and child might prefer sitting in as 3 rather than one of them having to sit next to a stranger.Sandpit said:
The airlines are slowly going through a long list of reasons not to just get rid of the middle seats. I don’t know anyone who’s going to fly economy until they do, irrespective of the price of the ticket.CarlottaVance said:Flying just got so much more fun.....
https://twitter.com/AlexInAir/status/1278688504814415873?s=20
There’s been a few passenger surveys about processes and disruption, and that’s the only thing that people have a strong opinion on - they’ll happily pay more to not sit next to a stranger. Most people intending to travel soon are not going on holiday, they’re travelling because they need to.
Getting rid of them in my mind meant not using them as a matter of policy unless requested, my fault for not explaining properly, obviously more wine required!0 -
Why is everyone ignoring the Gravis polls for Arizona?eristdoof said:
It is only one state poll I know, but Texas should not be anywhere near turning Dem. I remember in 2008 McCain was forced to start campaigning in the "leaning republican" states to prevent them from going Blue diverting considerable resources away from the battleground states.Scott_xP said:
If Trump is going to have to fight to just keep Texas, he's going to have huge problems where it really matters in Pa and Fl
Covered earlier?0 -
Not sure, but I'm ignoring them until they get corroboration due to them being so out of line with everything else and being paid for by OAN which combined with their numbers makes me suspicious of their methodology.Peter_the_Punter said:
Why is everyone ignoring the Gravis polls for Arizona?eristdoof said:
It is only one state poll I know, but Texas should not be anywhere near turning Dem. I remember in 2008 McCain was forced to start campaigning in the "leaning republican" states to prevent them from going Blue diverting considerable resources away from the battleground states.Scott_xP said:
If Trump is going to have to fight to just keep Texas, he's going to have huge problems where it really matters in Pa and Fl
Covered earlier?
Well, not quite ignoring. But significantly downrating.0 -
I don't care particularly, I have my own opinions on the intelligence or otherwise of Brexit and they're not influenced that much either way by the opinions of well-informed foreign observers. Although it's reassuring that they coincide. I just thought I would note that the general opinion from Jonny Foreigner does not appear to be "well done those chaps."Luckyguy1983 said:
I did say eventual. And in the meantime, it is mad to care, and if we care, to cultivate and brood on those feelings. I'm glad to have provided New Zealanders with a laugh - I am sure there are considerably more though who are genuinely looking forward to being our 'chums' - the loss of so much of their trade to Britain when we joined the EEC was devastating for their economy.OnlyLivingBoy said:
Speaking as someone who spends quite a lot of time talking to assorted foreigners in the fields of finance, economics and public policy, that's really not my experience. They all think we're bonkers and have an inflated idea of the UK's international importance.Luckyguy1983 said:
The cringeing obsession of remoaners with how we're perceived abroad is something akin to a mental disorder. We voted for Brexit to be an independent trading nation, with a democratically elected Government setting our own laws. I would be surprised if that rather humble aim did not eventually result in grudging respect in the counsels of the world, but if it results in interminable attempts at levity, that's fine too, I really couldn't give a toss, and neither should anyone else.Charles said:
That’s an example of a good political cartoon compared to the rubbish you usually postScott_xP said:
The only exceptions are other Europeans who hate the EU and hope Brexit might hasten its demise.
Robert Burns is good on this, as on so much else:
Oh wad some Power the giftie gie us
To see oursels as ithers see us!0 -
Have always liked that poem. Live not far from Adlestrop now and often drive by although I have never actually stopped there.Nigelb said:
Yes. I remember Adlestrop—slade said:Just discovered that SeanT's grandfather knew LLoyd George. He stood as a Liberal candidate in 1918 and used to travel into London with LG. Lloyd George also signed a letter to The Times asking for a memorial to his son Edward Thomas for his services to poetry.
The name, because one afternoon
Of heat the express-train drew up there
Unwontedly. It was late June.
The steam hissed. Someone cleared his throat.
No one left and no one came
On the bare platform. What I saw
Was Adlestrop—only the name
And willows, willow-herb, and grass,
And meadowsweet, and haycocks dry,
No whit less still and lonely fair
Than the high cloudlets in the sky.
And for that minute a blackbird sang
Close by, and round him, mistier,
Farther and farther, all the birds
Of Oxfordshire and Gloucestershire.0 -
Did you miss the capitulation on a customs border within the UK?Luckyguy1983 said:
You must be more up on current affairs than I am, because I haven't noticed any caving. We will see when we get there.TOPPING said:
No chums, remember, only interests. And the RoW will see us as a potentially weaker negotiating partner now. Certainly they will if they take notice of Boris' caving to date.Luckyguy1983 said:
I did say eventual. And in the meantime, it is mad to care, and if we care, to cultivate and brood on those feelings. I'm glad to have provided New Zealanders with a laugh - I am sure there are considerably more though who are genuinely looking forward to being our 'chums' - the loss of so much of their trade to Britain when we joined the EEC was devastating for their economy.OnlyLivingBoy said:
Speaking as someone who spends quite a lot of time talking to assorted foreigners in the fields of finance, economics and public policy, that's really not my experience. They all think we're bonkers and have an inflated idea of the UK's international importance.Luckyguy1983 said:
The cringeing obsession of remoaners with how we're perceived abroad is something akin to a mental disorder. We voted for Brexit to be an independent trading nation, with a democratically elected Government setting our own laws. I would be surprised if that rather humble aim did not eventually result in grudging respect in the counsels of the world, but if it results in interminable attempts at levity, that's fine too, I really couldn't give a toss, and neither should anyone else.Charles said:
That’s an example of a good political cartoon compared to the rubbish you usually postScott_xP said:
The only exceptions are other Europeans who hate the EU and hope Brexit might hasten its demise.0 -
If June was the month the pandemic spiraled out of control in the U.S., July may show how bad it can get.
On June 1, Florida officials announced 667 new coronavirus cases. On July 1, they added more than 6,500. The next day they reported over 10,100, a record.
In Texas, there were 1,100 new cases at the start of last month. On Wednesday, more than 8,100. In Georgia, it went from 700 to 2,300. And in California, where some newly reopened businesses were again being shut down, new cases went from about 2,500 to 7,600.
If June was the month when the coronavirus pandemic spiraled from America’s grasp, July seemed destined to be month when the country will learn just how bad it will get.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/02/world/coronavirus-updates.html#link-367d85880 -
It also reflects massive money printing by the Fed and the ECB.contrarian said:
The rise in the stock market suggests Trump isn't the only one who believes things are getting better.SeaShantyIrish2 said:News Flash - Our Fearless Leader now giving press conference at White House touting latest economic numbers.
Hoobert Hever lives again! Seizing upon any glimmer of good news in a sea of ill tidings, trying to convince and persuade and cajole and brainwash voters that things are improving, that his "leadership" is working, that he's MAGA despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary.
In 1928 Americans elected "the Great Engineer" by a landslide, to keep prosperity rolling along. In 2016 the elected the "expert" in "Art of the Deal" to drain the swamp.
Four years later in 1935 in the depths of the Great Depression they threw Hoover out; because of his failure on his own terms and despite - or rather because of - his constant flow of empty words.
And in 2020 . . . you get the picture.
Given that CV-19 cases are spiking across the US and (most concerning of all) that the number of available intensive care beds is falling sharply in a number of states, the picture looks increasingly bleak to me.
If I were still in the money management business, I would be reducing my exposure to the US right now.0 -
ONA? Sorry but that's a TLA I don't recognise.Quincel said:
Not sure, but I'm ignoring them until they get corroboration due to them being so out of line with everything else and being paid for by OAN which combined with their numbers makes me suspicious of their methodology.Peter_the_Punter said:
Why is everyone ignoring the Gravis polls for Arizona?eristdoof said:
It is only one state poll I know, but Texas should not be anywhere near turning Dem. I remember in 2008 McCain was forced to start campaigning in the "leaning republican" states to prevent them from going Blue diverting considerable resources away from the battleground states.Scott_xP said:
If Trump is going to have to fight to just keep Texas, he's going to have huge problems where it really matters in Pa and Fl
Covered earlier?
Well, not quite ignoring. But significantly downrating.0 -
One America Network. Cable News for those who think Fox is just too left-wing.Peter_the_Punter said:
ONA? Sorry but that's a TLA I don't recognise.Quincel said:
Not sure, but I'm ignoring them until they get corroboration due to them being so out of line with everything else and being paid for by OAN which combined with their numbers makes me suspicious of their methodology.Peter_the_Punter said:
Why is everyone ignoring the Gravis polls for Arizona?eristdoof said:
It is only one state poll I know, but Texas should not be anywhere near turning Dem. I remember in 2008 McCain was forced to start campaigning in the "leaning republican" states to prevent them from going Blue diverting considerable resources away from the battleground states.Scott_xP said:
If Trump is going to have to fight to just keep Texas, he's going to have huge problems where it really matters in Pa and Fl
Covered earlier?
Well, not quite ignoring. But significantly downrating.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UnSILVWDKL81 -
I've never done so, either.Peter_the_Punter said:
Have always liked that poem. Live not far from Adlestrop now and often drive by although I have never actually stopped there.Nigelb said:
Yes. I remember Adlestrop—slade said:Just discovered that SeanT's grandfather knew LLoyd George. He stood as a Liberal candidate in 1918 and used to travel into London with LG. Lloyd George also signed a letter to The Times asking for a memorial to his son Edward Thomas for his services to poetry.
The name, because one afternoon
Of heat the express-train drew up there
Unwontedly. It was late June.
The steam hissed. Someone cleared his throat.
No one left and no one came
On the bare platform. What I saw
Was Adlestrop—only the name
And willows, willow-herb, and grass,
And meadowsweet, and haycocks dry,
No whit less still and lonely fair
Than the high cloudlets in the sky.
And for that minute a blackbird sang
Close by, and round him, mistier,
Farther and farther, all the birds
Of Oxfordshire and Gloucestershire.
Reputedly the inspiration for Mansfield Park, too - a remarkable literary heritage for so small a place.
Splendidly, Wikipedia has this for 'notable people':
Cecil Fiennes (1831–1870), cricketer
Wingfield Fiennes (1834–1923), cricketer
That's it.1 -
538 indicates the Senate polls marginal better for the Republicans than the Trump/Biden polls.LostPassword said:
Yes - that's been the pattern for almost all the polls where you can do the comparison. Which is one reason the GOP has been in so much trouble, as they have somehow managed to have a worse reputation than the worst President in history.HYUFD said:
In Montana though Trump is outpolling the GOPLostPassword said:The PPP poll of Texas is interesting. Biden is +2, but the RepublIcan Senator Cornyn is +7. So the RepublIcan Senator outpolls Trump by 9 points.
We might see Republican Senators ditch support for Trump as the GOP try to hang onto the Senate. That's probably a better outcome for them than a Trump victory.
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1278529818297012225?s=19
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1278523691350003714?s=19
However, if that changes, then it provides an escape for the GOP and would likely mark the end of any hope of a recovery for Trump.1 -
Confirmation bias, naturally.Peter_the_Punter said:
Why is everyone ignoring the Gravis polls for Arizona?eristdoof said:
It is only one state poll I know, but Texas should not be anywhere near turning Dem. I remember in 2008 McCain was forced to start campaigning in the "leaning republican" states to prevent them from going Blue diverting considerable resources away from the battleground states.Scott_xP said:
If Trump is going to have to fight to just keep Texas, he's going to have huge problems where it really matters in Pa and Fl
Covered earlier?0 -
US corporate bond issuance is through the roof. Even junk debt.rcs1000 said:
It also reflects massive money printing by the Fed and the ECB.contrarian said:
The rise in the stock market suggests Trump isn't the only one who believes things are getting better.SeaShantyIrish2 said:News Flash - Our Fearless Leader now giving press conference at White House touting latest economic numbers.
Hoobert Hever lives again! Seizing upon any glimmer of good news in a sea of ill tidings, trying to convince and persuade and cajole and brainwash voters that things are improving, that his "leadership" is working, that he's MAGA despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary.
In 1928 Americans elected "the Great Engineer" by a landslide, to keep prosperity rolling along. In 2016 the elected the "expert" in "Art of the Deal" to drain the swamp.
Four years later in 1935 in the depths of the Great Depression they threw Hoover out; because of his failure on his own terms and despite - or rather because of - his constant flow of empty words.
And in 2020 . . . you get the picture.
Given that CV-19 cases are spiking across the US and (most concerning of all) that the number of available intensive care beds is falling sharply in a number of states, the picture looks increasingly bleak to me.
If I were still in the money management business, I would be reducing my exposure to the US right now.0 -
The One America News Network. A newish TV channel which quite openly attempts to usurp Fox News's audience by being more right-wing, and with a bad psephological record already.Peter_the_Punter said:
ONA? Sorry but that's a TLA I don't recognise.Quincel said:
Not sure, but I'm ignoring them until they get corroboration due to them being so out of line with everything else and being paid for by OAN which combined with their numbers makes me suspicious of their methodology.Peter_the_Punter said:
Why is everyone ignoring the Gravis polls for Arizona?eristdoof said:
It is only one state poll I know, but Texas should not be anywhere near turning Dem. I remember in 2008 McCain was forced to start campaigning in the "leaning republican" states to prevent them from going Blue diverting considerable resources away from the battleground states.Scott_xP said:
If Trump is going to have to fight to just keep Texas, he's going to have huge problems where it really matters in Pa and Fl
Covered earlier?
Well, not quite ignoring. But significantly downrating.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/06/11/trumps-most-loyal-media-ally-promised-pro-trump-poll-it-didnt-deliver-and-then-pulled-its-story/
(For the record, there's a couple of bits of that article I disagree with such as suggesting that removing Don't Knows when reporting headline numbers is shady, but many aspects including rubbishing a legitimate poll which was bad for Trump and promising a poll result before conducting it are very bad.)0 -
It has every appearance of a determined national effort to achieve herd immunity ahead of any vaccine availability.rcs1000 said:
It also reflects massive money printing by the Fed and the ECB.contrarian said:
The rise in the stock market suggests Trump isn't the only one who believes things are getting better.SeaShantyIrish2 said:News Flash - Our Fearless Leader now giving press conference at White House touting latest economic numbers.
Hoobert Hever lives again! Seizing upon any glimmer of good news in a sea of ill tidings, trying to convince and persuade and cajole and brainwash voters that things are improving, that his "leadership" is working, that he's MAGA despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary.
In 1928 Americans elected "the Great Engineer" by a landslide, to keep prosperity rolling along. In 2016 the elected the "expert" in "Art of the Deal" to drain the swamp.
Four years later in 1935 in the depths of the Great Depression they threw Hoover out; because of his failure on his own terms and despite - or rather because of - his constant flow of empty words.
And in 2020 . . . you get the picture.
Given that CV-19 cases are spiking across the US and (most concerning of all) that the number of available intensive care beds is falling sharply in a number of states, the picture looks increasingly bleak to me.
If I were still in the money management business, I would be reducing my exposure to the US right now.
Given that's possible with around 50% of the population having had it, I wonder how long that might take ?
https://twitter.com/KrutikaKuppalli/status/12787093315888742450 -
Do we see 20,000 before 30,000, I wonder?rcs1000 said:
It also reflects massive money printing by the Fed and the ECB.contrarian said:
The rise in the stock market suggests Trump isn't the only one who believes things are getting better.SeaShantyIrish2 said:News Flash - Our Fearless Leader now giving press conference at White House touting latest economic numbers.
Hoobert Hever lives again! Seizing upon any glimmer of good news in a sea of ill tidings, trying to convince and persuade and cajole and brainwash voters that things are improving, that his "leadership" is working, that he's MAGA despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary.
In 1928 Americans elected "the Great Engineer" by a landslide, to keep prosperity rolling along. In 2016 the elected the "expert" in "Art of the Deal" to drain the swamp.
Four years later in 1935 in the depths of the Great Depression they threw Hoover out; because of his failure on his own terms and despite - or rather because of - his constant flow of empty words.
And in 2020 . . . you get the picture.
Given that CV-19 cases are spiking across the US and (most concerning of all) that the number of available intensive care beds is falling sharply in a number of states, the picture looks increasingly bleak to me.
If I were still in the money management business, I would be reducing my exposure to the US right now.0 -
I do like Last Week Tonight, but it is clear John Oliver should update his delivery for the lack of a studio audience!Stuartinromford said:
One America Network. Cable News for those who think Fox is just too left-wing.Peter_the_Punter said:
ONA? Sorry but that's a TLA I don't recognise.Quincel said:
Not sure, but I'm ignoring them until they get corroboration due to them being so out of line with everything else and being paid for by OAN which combined with their numbers makes me suspicious of their methodology.Peter_the_Punter said:
Why is everyone ignoring the Gravis polls for Arizona?eristdoof said:
It is only one state poll I know, but Texas should not be anywhere near turning Dem. I remember in 2008 McCain was forced to start campaigning in the "leaning republican" states to prevent them from going Blue diverting considerable resources away from the battleground states.Scott_xP said:
If Trump is going to have to fight to just keep Texas, he's going to have huge problems where it really matters in Pa and Fl
Covered earlier?
Well, not quite ignoring. But significantly downrating.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UnSILVWDKL83 -
Tesla is now worth more than Toyota.contrarian said:
US corporate bond issuance is through the roof. Even junk debt.rcs1000 said:
It also reflects massive money printing by the Fed and the ECB.contrarian said:
The rise in the stock market suggests Trump isn't the only one who believes things are getting better.SeaShantyIrish2 said:News Flash - Our Fearless Leader now giving press conference at White House touting latest economic numbers.
Hoobert Hever lives again! Seizing upon any glimmer of good news in a sea of ill tidings, trying to convince and persuade and cajole and brainwash voters that things are improving, that his "leadership" is working, that he's MAGA despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary.
In 1928 Americans elected "the Great Engineer" by a landslide, to keep prosperity rolling along. In 2016 the elected the "expert" in "Art of the Deal" to drain the swamp.
Four years later in 1935 in the depths of the Great Depression they threw Hoover out; because of his failure on his own terms and despite - or rather because of - his constant flow of empty words.
And in 2020 . . . you get the picture.
Given that CV-19 cases are spiking across the US and (most concerning of all) that the number of available intensive care beds is falling sharply in a number of states, the picture looks increasingly bleak to me.
If I were still in the money management business, I would be reducing my exposure to the US right now.0 -
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We did Adlestrop for English O-level. In theory, it was all Edward Thomas's poems but our teachers were fairly confident Adlestrop would be the one on the exam, and they were right.Peter_the_Punter said:
Have always liked that poem. Live not far from Adlestrop now and often drive by although I have never actually stopped there.Nigelb said:
Yes. I remember Adlestrop—slade said:Just discovered that SeanT's grandfather knew LLoyd George. He stood as a Liberal candidate in 1918 and used to travel into London with LG. Lloyd George also signed a letter to The Times asking for a memorial to his son Edward Thomas for his services to poetry.
The name, because one afternoon
Of heat the express-train drew up there
Unwontedly. It was late June.
The steam hissed. Someone cleared his throat.
No one left and no one came
On the bare platform. What I saw
Was Adlestrop—only the name
And willows, willow-herb, and grass,
And meadowsweet, and haycocks dry,
No whit less still and lonely fair
Than the high cloudlets in the sky.
And for that minute a blackbird sang
Close by, and round him, mistier,
Farther and farther, all the birds
Of Oxfordshire and Gloucestershire.
It would add to the gaiety of pb if @Sunil_Prasannan had to publish a poem for each station he visited, rather than merely listing them.0 -
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Jon Stewart he ain't.Quincel said:
I do like Last Week Tonight, but it is clear John Oliver should update his delivery for the lack of a studio audience!Stuartinromford said:
One America Network. Cable News for those who think Fox is just too left-wing.Peter_the_Punter said:
ONA? Sorry but that's a TLA I don't recognise.Quincel said:
Not sure, but I'm ignoring them until they get corroboration due to them being so out of line with everything else and being paid for by OAN which combined with their numbers makes me suspicious of their methodology.Peter_the_Punter said:
Why is everyone ignoring the Gravis polls for Arizona?eristdoof said:
It is only one state poll I know, but Texas should not be anywhere near turning Dem. I remember in 2008 McCain was forced to start campaigning in the "leaning republican" states to prevent them from going Blue diverting considerable resources away from the battleground states.Scott_xP said:
If Trump is going to have to fight to just keep Texas, he's going to have huge problems where it really matters in Pa and Fl
Covered earlier?
Well, not quite ignoring. But significantly downrating.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UnSILVWDKL80 -
Good news for keeping the R down.Scott_xP said:0 -
Corporate America is taking full advantage of the Fed's generosity.contrarian said:
US corporate bond issuance is through the roof. Even junk debt.rcs1000 said:
It also reflects massive money printing by the Fed and the ECB.contrarian said:
The rise in the stock market suggests Trump isn't the only one who believes things are getting better.SeaShantyIrish2 said:News Flash - Our Fearless Leader now giving press conference at White House touting latest economic numbers.
Hoobert Hever lives again! Seizing upon any glimmer of good news in a sea of ill tidings, trying to convince and persuade and cajole and brainwash voters that things are improving, that his "leadership" is working, that he's MAGA despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary.
In 1928 Americans elected "the Great Engineer" by a landslide, to keep prosperity rolling along. In 2016 the elected the "expert" in "Art of the Deal" to drain the swamp.
Four years later in 1935 in the depths of the Great Depression they threw Hoover out; because of his failure on his own terms and despite - or rather because of - his constant flow of empty words.
And in 2020 . . . you get the picture.
Given that CV-19 cases are spiking across the US and (most concerning of all) that the number of available intensive care beds is falling sharply in a number of states, the picture looks increasingly bleak to me.
If I were still in the money management business, I would be reducing my exposure to the US right now.
Now, I'm not in the investment advice business, but Barclays JNK high yield ETF has rallied about 33% from its lows and now trades above par. I would be particularly keen to avoid that one.0 -
As I think I have said to you before, you do write in catchy fashion sometimes but I am very rarely able to latch onto something in your perception of things that is close enough to my perception of things to be able to actually argue with you. We are living in the same world and yet it's a wholly different one.Luckyguy1983 said:
I don't believe Joe Biden is as warlike in character than Hillary, no, and that is a plus. But in Biden, you have someone who might be a bit of an Obama - reluctant to appear to be blood drenched (which is more than can be said for many) but unlikely to really kick hard against war if being dragged toward it. Trump on the other hand, whether it is because Putin has his balls in a jar, or whether he's secretly just a big ole softy, is actively against it, and the proof of that particular pudding has already been in the eating. So he still wins that top-trumps competition as far as I am concerned.kinabalu said:
Well if you genuinely hold the firm view that Hillary Clinton as POTUS would have started World War III, it makes perfect sense to have wanted Trump to win in 2016. I would have been rooting for him too if I'd thought that.Luckyguy1983 said:
I wouldn't dream of backing Trump, because I have no idea who will win, and so I wouldn't have the courage of my convictions. But I wouldn't mind if he won. I can readily see how ghastly he is. I can see how an American who was very conscious of how America is perceived abroad would fervently wish him gone. But my feelings on the subject are ambivalent. For a few reasons, but firstly and foremostly because for whatever reason (quite possibly because he is in hock to foreign powers, who knows), Trump has not started World War III. Hillary would have. We could, in 2020, have been fighting a disease, and fighting each other - thank the heavens we are only doing one.kinabalu said:
C'mon. You strongly want Trump to beat Biden. You all but wear a tee shirt saying so. But I have not heard you talk much about the betting on it, so I'm curious about that aspect. Have you backed him to win too?contrarian said:
Not really a supporter, just putting the other side of the argument. As usual!MrEd said:
Sounding a bit like a Trumpster there, @contrariancontrarian said:
Maybe not so good for Biden investments thoughCorrectHorseBattery said:
Fantastic for my oil investments.contrarian said:US stock markets poised for a strong open after US jobs data looked better than expected.
Secondly because I think with 'America first', Trump is only crudely re-expressing America's consistent foreign policy, from the declaration of independence, until today. Others may be desperate to put the lipstick back on the pig, but I can't get excited about that.
But that was then, this is now. It only holds again this time if you think Sleepy Joe is also hot to trot for some World War III. Which seems a bit far-fetched.
As to your second reason. OK, so you'd rather a pig go "au naturel" than make a bit of an effort. I can't see any upside at all to that.
With your second point, like I said, the merit of the porcine beautification is all for a domestic audience. I can see why they would want a more Presidential President. For a foreign country, the value of a pig being a pig has already been felt. By virtue of Trump, Britain has been forced to develop a semblance of independence from the US that we have not had for decades. It's just a shame we've done that because America has an unsuitable and unpredictable leader, rather than why we should have - because they're a foreign power.0 -
Ed Davey taking a big lead in nominations. Not sure how this translates into votes. He is now favourite in the betting.
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That’s a very high bar.DavidL said:
Jon Stewart he ain't.Quincel said:
I do like Last Week Tonight, but it is clear John Oliver should update his delivery for the lack of a studio audience!Stuartinromford said:
One America Network. Cable News for those who think Fox is just too left-wing.Peter_the_Punter said:
ONA? Sorry but that's a TLA I don't recognise.Quincel said:
Not sure, but I'm ignoring them until they get corroboration due to them being so out of line with everything else and being paid for by OAN which combined with their numbers makes me suspicious of their methodology.Peter_the_Punter said:
Why is everyone ignoring the Gravis polls for Arizona?eristdoof said:
It is only one state poll I know, but Texas should not be anywhere near turning Dem. I remember in 2008 McCain was forced to start campaigning in the "leaning republican" states to prevent them from going Blue diverting considerable resources away from the battleground states.Scott_xP said:
If Trump is going to have to fight to just keep Texas, he's going to have huge problems where it really matters in Pa and Fl
Covered earlier?
Well, not quite ignoring. But significantly downrating.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UnSILVWDKL8
From last week: Jon Stewart vs Joe Rogan. Informative and entertaining.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=SXOUCRLW2UI0 -
Touch of the Ben Eltons. More than a touch even.Quincel said:
I do like Last Week Tonight, but it is clear John Oliver should update his delivery for the lack of a studio audience!Stuartinromford said:
One America Network. Cable News for those who think Fox is just too left-wing.Peter_the_Punter said:
ONA? Sorry but that's a TLA I don't recognise.Quincel said:
Not sure, but I'm ignoring them until they get corroboration due to them being so out of line with everything else and being paid for by OAN which combined with their numbers makes me suspicious of their methodology.Peter_the_Punter said:
Why is everyone ignoring the Gravis polls for Arizona?eristdoof said:
It is only one state poll I know, but Texas should not be anywhere near turning Dem. I remember in 2008 McCain was forced to start campaigning in the "leaning republican" states to prevent them from going Blue diverting considerable resources away from the battleground states.Scott_xP said:
If Trump is going to have to fight to just keep Texas, he's going to have huge problems where it really matters in Pa and Fl
Covered earlier?
Well, not quite ignoring. But significantly downrating.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UnSILVWDKL80 -
new thread0
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that is allNigelb said:
I've never done so, either.Peter_the_Punter said:
Have always liked that poem. Live not far from Adlestrop now and often drive by although I have never actually stopped there.Nigelb said:
Yes. I remember Adlestrop—slade said:Just discovered that SeanT's grandfather knew LLoyd George. He stood as a Liberal candidate in 1918 and used to travel into London with LG. Lloyd George also signed a letter to The Times asking for a memorial to his son Edward Thomas for his services to poetry.
The name, because one afternoon
Of heat the express-train drew up there
Unwontedly. It was late June.
The steam hissed. Someone cleared his throat.
No one left and no one came
On the bare platform. What I saw
Was Adlestrop—only the name
And willows, willow-herb, and grass,
And meadowsweet, and haycocks dry,
No whit less still and lonely fair
Than the high cloudlets in the sky.
And for that minute a blackbird sang
Close by, and round him, mistier,
Farther and farther, all the birds
Of Oxfordshire and Gloucestershire.
Reputedly the inspiration for Mansfield Park, too - a remarkable literary heritage for so small a place.
Splendidly, Wikipedia has this for 'notable people':
Cecil Fiennes (1831–1870), cricketer
Wingfield Fiennes (1834–1923), cricketer
That's it.
Ye know on earth, and all ye need to know0 -
NEW THREAD0
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There can't be many that feature railway stations, but I do know:DecrepiterJohnL said:
We did Adlestrop for English O-level. In theory, it was all Edward Thomas's poems but our teachers were fairly confident Adlestrop would be the one on the exam, and they were right.Peter_the_Punter said:
Have always liked that poem. Live not far from Adlestrop now and often drive by although I have never actually stopped there.Nigelb said:
Yes. I remember Adlestrop—slade said:Just discovered that SeanT's grandfather knew LLoyd George. He stood as a Liberal candidate in 1918 and used to travel into London with LG. Lloyd George also signed a letter to The Times asking for a memorial to his son Edward Thomas for his services to poetry.
The name, because one afternoon
Of heat the express-train drew up there
Unwontedly. It was late June.
The steam hissed. Someone cleared his throat.
No one left and no one came
On the bare platform. What I saw
Was Adlestrop—only the name
And willows, willow-herb, and grass,
And meadowsweet, and haycocks dry,
No whit less still and lonely fair
Than the high cloudlets in the sky.
And for that minute a blackbird sang
Close by, and round him, mistier,
Farther and farther, all the birds
Of Oxfordshire and Gloucestershire.
It would add to the gaiety of pb if @Sunil_Prasannan had to publish a poem for each station he visited, rather than merely listing them.
A policeman from near Clapham Junction
Had a penis that just wouldn't function....
I'll finish the rest after 9 o'clock.
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Good news for a gradual returnScott_xP said:0 -
I think the worst part of the Russian constitution story is that clearly Putin is just getting lazier. I mean, standing down as president for four years before you could be president again was at least mildly creative, but now he's just going the traditional 'new constitution means term limits reset to zero' approach.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-532559640 -
Valdi Putin obviously took a leaf out of Huey Long's old book. Huey was term-limited as Governor of Louisiana, so he got his hand-picked successor elected to replace him. Of whom it was said, that one day he was sitting in his office in the state capitol when a leaf flew in from an open window and landed on his desk. So he signed it. Point is, he was Huey's mini-me.kle4 said:I think the worst part of the Russian constitution story is that clearly Putin is just getting lazier. I mean, standing down as president for four years before you could be president again was at least mildly creative, but now he's just going the traditional 'new constitution means term limits reset to zero' approach.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-53255964
Further note that while he was Governor, Huey ran for US Senate and was elected. BUT instead of resigning as Gov to take his senate seat, he refused to allow the Lieutenant Governor to succeed him, because he was a political enemy. In fact, Huey refused to leave the state, which would have made the Lt Gov the acting Gov. - "that SOB will NEVER serve a hour as Gov" or words to that effect.
AND when the Lt. Gov. had himself sworn in as Gov, on grounds that Long had ceased to be governor when he was elected to US Senate, Huey got the courts to rule that the Lt. Gov was not only NOT the Gov., but that he had in effect resigned as Lt. Gov. - thus making the President Pro Tempore of the state senate next in line. At that point, Huey DID resign in Baton Rouge and left to take up his US Senate seat in Washington - over a year after his term had begun.1 -
Jeffrey Archer cooked his own bacon
Trying to bribe a hooker at Euston Station
His Lordship tried to deny
The the facts did not lie
So a hanging judge he ended up facin'1 -
IPSOS poll is interesting - the Government has made a mistake0
This discussion has been closed.